中国解码：人工智能价格战如何引发市场调整

当一位国际知名的科学家——唯一一位两次获得独立诺贝尔奖的人——陷入困境、拒绝退让，并制造出医学界最广泛的谬论之一时，会发生什么？

What happens when an internationally renowned scientist, the only person to win two unshared Nobel Prizes, gets out of his depth, refuses to back down, and starts one of the most widespread myths in medicine?

即使是一位获得过两次诺贝尔奖的人，也不会事事都对。

Even a person who's won two nail wheel prizes won't get everything right.

鲍威医生从不出错，从不出错。

Doctor Bowie's never wrong, never wrong.

我们为何会相信这些谬论。

Why we believe the myths we believe.

这就是本周《难以解释》的内容。

That's this week on Unexplainable.

关注《难以解释》，每周一和周三收听新 episodes。

Follow Unexplainable for new episodes every Monday and Wednesday.

什么

What

特朗普政府对可能与委内瑞拉开战有何考虑？

is the Trump administration's thinking on a possible war with Venezuela?

他可能在心里想，通过展示实力，我能以极小的代价取得重大胜利。

He's probably thinking in his mind, with a show of strength, I can get a big win on the cheap.

我是约翰·费纳。

I'm John Feiner.

我是杰克·沙利文。

And I'm Jake Sullivan.

我们是《长远博弈》的主持人，这是一档每周播出的国家安全播客。

And we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast.

本周，我们将深入探讨委内瑞拉、美中人工智能竞赛，并分析泽连斯基总统和普京是否应该接受美国支持的和平协议。

This week, we dig into Venezuela, The US China AI race, and game out whether president Zelensky and Putin should accept The US backed peace deal.

这一集已经发布了。

The episode is now out.

请在您收听播客的平台搜索并关注《长远博弈》。

Search for and follow the long game wherever you get your podcasts.

最新中国人工智能热潮产品Kimi K2，其训练成本仅为在美国训练AI模型所需成本的一小部分。

The latest Chinese AI sensation, which is called Kimi k two, cost just a fraction of what it would cost to train an AI model in America.

它的成本大约是460万美元。

It it cost about 4,600,000.0 US dollars.

这仅仅是OpenAI在大型语言模型上投资的一小部分。

That is just a tiny fraction of what OpenAI has been investing in its large language models.

欢迎来到《中国解码》。

Welcome to China Decode.

我是Alice Han。

I'm Alice Han.

我是James King。

And I'm James King.

在本期《中国解码》中，我们将探讨中国是否正在打造AI界的Android，而美国则在打造高端昂贵的iPhone——强大但成本过高，难以全球主导；日本与中国最近的争端如何重塑亚太地区的权力平衡；以及星巴克和咖啡大战如何揭示中国消费市场的激烈竞争。

Well, in today's episode of China Decode, we are discussing whether China is building the Android of AI while The US builds the ultra premium iPhone, powerful but too expensive to dominate globally, why the latest spat between Japan and China could reshape the balance of power in the Asia Pacific region, and how Starbucks and the coffee wars reveal the fierce fight for China's consumer market.

好的。

Alright.

我们直接开始吧。

Let's get right into it.

目前，科技界最大的新闻可能是美国未曾预料到的那一个。

Right now, the biggest story in tech may be the one The US didn't see coming.

中国的低成本开源AI突然在硅谷无处不在。

China's low cost open source AI is suddenly everywhere in Silicon Valley.

当美国花费数十亿美元构建越来越大的模型和数据中心，推高了一些分析师所说的AI泡沫时，中国似乎正在做完全相反的事情：降低成本、选择开源权重，并推出更便宜、更轻量且出人意料地具有竞争力的模型。

While The US is spending billions of dollars building ever bigger models and data centers and inflating what some analysts say looks like an AI bubble, China is doing the exact opposite it seems, cutting prices, opting for open sourcing weights, and shipping models that are cheaper, lighter, and surprisingly competitive.

美国公司正纷纷转向这些模型。

And American companies are flocking to them.

Airbnb首席执行官表示，他的团队已弃用ChatGPT，转而采用阿里巴巴的通义模型，因为其‘快速且便宜’。

Airbnb CEO says his team ditched ChatGPT for Alibaba's Quen model because it's, quote, unquote, fast and cheap.

风险投资公司正在转向月之暗面的Kimi大模型，开发者数据显示，上周美国使用最频繁的模型中，近一半来自中国。

Venture firms are switching to Moonshot's Kimi LLM, and developer data show nearly half of the most used models in The US last week were Chinese.

阿里巴巴再次大幅下调其旗舰模型的价格，这是全面AI价格战的体现，也表明内卷已蔓延至中国AI领域。

Alibaba just slashed prices on its flagship model again as part of a full blown AI price war and a sign that involution has come to Chinese AI.

前谷歌首席执行官埃里克·施密特警告称，大多数国家最终可能会使用中国模型，仅仅因为它们是免费的。

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is warning that most countries may end up using Chinese models simply because they're free.

詹姆斯，过去几周我们聊了很多关于中国AI的话题，我确实对 mainland 出现的这些模型感到非常兴奋，同时西方也开始跟上我们长期以来讨论的这一趋势，这说明千万别小看中国AI。

James, we've talked a lot about, I think, Chinese AI over the last few weeks, and I definitely think I'm very excited to see the models that are coming out of the Mainland, but also the fact the West is catching up to this theme that we've been talking about for a while, is don't write off Chinese AI.

它们将以一种完全不同的模式发展。

They are going to go for it in a very different model.

我认为，这些科技公司最近的公告——甚至一些我称之为规模相当大的初创公司，都在使用并依赖中国的大语言模型——非常引人注目。

And I think the recent announcements from these tech companies, some even, I would say, pretty big startups that are using and relying Chinese LLMs is pretty dramatic.

我认为这与我们过去几年所看到的叙事截然不同。

And I think it's a different narrative than what we've been seeing in the last few years.

我想直接切入主题，听听你对中国AI模式的看法，以及这种以更便宜、更快、更高效为目标的‘Android式AI’策略，最终能否在中国与美国的AI全球竞赛中胜出？

I just wanna go right into it and see what your take is on this Chinese model of AI and whether or not this kind of Android AI approach to making it cheaper, faster, more efficient models is ultimately gonna win out in in a global race between China and The US of AI?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个非常好的问题，艾丽丝。

That's a really great question, Alice.

事实上，就在最近几天，我注意到越来越多的人开始用‘泡沫’这个词来形容美国的AI努力。

I've started to notice just in recent days, actually, that people are using the word bubble with regard to America's AI efforts, quite a bit more now.

我认为过去他们对此一直持谨慎态度。

I think in the past, they've been reluctant to do that.

我的看法是，这仍然远非主流观点，中美AI竞赛将是一场漫长的赛跑。

My own take is that this is still very far from conventional wisdom, and The US China AI race is going to be a very long run thing.

我们还无法下定论。

We can't call it yet.

这个过程中会有许多起起落落和反复曲折。

There's gonna be many ups and downs and fits and starts.

但就目前情况来看，我认为美国的一些大公司显得相当泡沫化。

But as things stand right now, I would say that some big names in The US are looking quite bubbly.

我认为关键在于，美国AI的泡沫化特征，实际上是‘中国制造’的。

And I think the key point is this, the bubbly aspects of American AI, as I see it, are made in China.

我的意思是，中国在AI上的做法是以远低于美国的成本构建AI模型。

By which I mean that China's approach to AI is to build AI models at a much lower cost than we can find in The US.

而且使用这些中国AI模型的成本也低得多，更重要的是，目前中国AI模型的性能几乎与美国标准持平，甚至正在追赶。

Also, the cost of using those Chinese AI models is much lower, And, crucially, the performance of the Chinese AI models is kind of just as good or catching up to US standards at the moment.

所以我认为，这就是为什么我们最近看到谷歌前首席执行官埃里克·施密特说——正如你已经提到的——那些没有西方国家那样雄厚资金的大多数政府和国家，最终会采用中国模型作为标准，不是因为它们更好，而是因为它们是免费的。

So I think that that is the reason why we saw Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, very recently say, as you've already mentioned, you know, the vast majority of governments and countries who don't have the kind of money that the West has will end up standardizing by using Chinese models, not because they're better, but because they're free.

所以我认为，我们正进入中美人工智能竞赛中一个非常有趣的阶段。

So I think I think, really, we're entering a very interesting phase in The US China AI race.

在我把话题交还给你之前，爱丽丝，我应该提一下，这个问题需要一些细微的区分。

I should just mention before I pass it back to you, Alice, that, you know, there needs to be a little bit of nuance on this.

并非所有美国的大型语言模型都是闭源的，也并非所有中国大型语言模型都是开源的。

Not all US LLMs are closed source, and not all Chinese large language models are open source.

所以情况是复杂的。

So it's it's a mixed picture.

你知道，我们有来自Meta的Llama。

You know, we've got Lama from Meta.

我们有来自微软的Phi和来自谷歌的Gemma。

We've got Fi from Microsoft and Gemma from Google.

这些全部都是开源的。

All of those are open source.

当然，正如你已经提到的，许多成功且知名的中国模型，比如DeepSeq和Q1，也是开源的。

And, of course, it's famous that many of the big and successful Chinese models such as DeepSeq and Q1, as you already mentioned, are open source too.

但我只是想明确这一点。

But I just want to I I just wanna make that clear.

我们可以说，情况是错综复杂的。

We're we're, you know, it's it's a variegated picture.

并不是所有在中国开发的东西都是开源的，也不是所有在美国开发的东西都是闭源的。

It's not the case that everything done in China is open source, and everything done in The US is closed source.

我想留给你一个惊人的数据：最新的中国AI明星模型Kimi K2，其训练成本仅为在美国训练一个AI模型所需成本的一小部分。

I just wanna leave you with one extraordinary statistic, and that is that the latest Chinese AI sensation, which is called Kimi k two, cost just a fraction of what it would cost to train an AI model in America.

它的成本大约是460万美元。

It it cost about 4,600,000.0 US dollars.

这仅仅是OpenAI在美国为其大型语言模型所投入资金的极小一部分。

That is just a tiny fraction of what OpenAI has been investing in, in its, large language models over in The US.

但你是如何看待这一点的，爱丽丝？

But how do you see this, Alice?

你觉得现在下结论是不是太早了？还是你觉得美国的模式显得浮夸，而中国的模式则更精干高效？

Do you do you think that, you know, it's too early to call, or do you think that the American model is looking bubbly and the Chinese model is looking lean and mean?

我觉得你这样形容太棒了，浮夸 vs 精干高效。

I think that's a great way to phrase it, bubbly versus lean and mean.

我更倾向于这种说法，但需要补充的是，正如我们之前讨论过的，詹姆斯，美国已经向数据中心部署、前沿大语言模型以及超大规模云服务商投入了数十亿美元的资本支出。

I think I'm more in the camp of that kind of narrative, although with the caveat that as we've previously talked about, James, The US has thrown billions of CapEx into the data center rollout into leading edge LLMs, into the frontier labs and hyperscalers.

因此，我认为美国在通用人工智能（AGI）或我们之前提到的超级智能竞赛中，可能已经走得更远。

And as a result, I think it's probably gonna be further along in the AGI, artificial general intelligence race, or superintelligence, as we previously mentioned.

但正如你所说，詹姆斯，中国的模式更精干高效，因为它能更高效地运行这些模型，训练成本也低得多。

But the Chinese model, to your point, James, is leaner and and meaner in the sense that, you know, it is doing these models more efficiently, much cheaper to train.

让我感到有趣的是，你已经提到了这一点，詹姆斯：不仅推理成本更低，训练成本也同样更低。

What was interesting for me to notice, and you already mentioned it, James, is that and not only are they cheaper on the inference costs, but also on the training costs.

我记得在2018年见过李开复——中国人工智能之父，他写了那本著名的《AI超powers》，虽然那似乎已经是很久以前的事了，但我强烈推荐你读一读，当时这个问题还没成为如此重大的议题。

I remember meeting, Kai Fu Li, the father of AI in China who wrote that famous book AI Superpowers, which seems like a lifetime ago, but I highly recommend that read, I believe, in 2018, so before this really ramped up as a serious issue.

当时他提到，一年半前，中国可能无法在训练成本上与美国竞争，因为美国在训练上投入了巨额资本支出，并拥有世界上最好的数据集和训练模型。

And he had said at the time a year and a half ago that China may not be able to compete on training costs because The US has dedicated a huge amount of CapEx towards training, and it has some of the best data sets and training models in the world.

但中国可以迅速降低推理成本。

But China can rapidly decrease the inference costs.

现在看来，他们已经同时降低了推理和训练成本。

Now it seems like they've decreased both the inference and training costs.

正如你所说，Kimi K2开源模型的成本仅为460万美元。

To your point, the Kimi k two open source model is just $4,600,000.

正如你提到的，这比OpenAI今年在研发上的投入少了1500倍。

As you said, that's 1,500 times less than what OpenAI spent on r and d this year.

再次跟进你的观点，詹姆斯，为了让听众更好地理解这一点，说中国在开源领域领先其实有点用词不当。

And, again, just to follow-up on your point, James, so that listeners can appreciate this, I think it's a bit of a misnomer to say that China is leading the way on open source.

我最近与一些AI科学家交流过，他们表示，所谓的开源模型实际上大多是开放权重模型，也就是说，底层代码和数据集并未公开，但权重或训练参数是公开的。

I've been talking to some AI scientists more recently who've said that actually the majority of the open quote unquote open source models are really open weight, meaning that the underlying code and dataset are not freely available, but the weights or the training parameters are.

这就是开放权重与开源之间的区别。

That's the difference between an open weight versus an open source.

但事实是，中国正在经历一场我所认为的LLM领域的寒武纪大爆发。

But the fact of the matter remains that China is going through what I see as a Cambrian explosion in terms of different LLM's.

我们已经讨论过这个主题：价格战、产能过剩和过度竞争的内卷。

And we've talked about this theme of involution of price wars of of excess capacity of of hyper competition.

我认为，这种现象在中国已经初现端倪，众多大语言模型正在激烈竞争中。

I think this is already starting to be played out in the Chinese context where you have a lot of different LLMs in the race or in the in the ring.

Kimi最近在参数规模和性能上刚刚超越了QN和深海模型。

Kimi just overtook of QN and Deepsea very recently in terms of its parameters and performance.

我认为，中国的大语言模型被美国公司所使用，这充分说明消费者对价格非常敏感。

I think that the fact that China is being used, its LLMs are being used by American companies is a pretty telling and a compelling sign that consumers are driven by price.

这些大语言模型比美国同类产品更便宜，这使得它们甚至对一些西方公司更具吸引力，这也解释了为什么当前关于中国大模型具有竞争力的讨论，恰逢华尔街许多人对美国AI泡沫感到担忧之时。

And the fact that these LLMs can be cheaper than their American counterparts, I think, is making them more desirable even amongst some of these western companies, which is why, you know, I find that the recent talk about Chinese LMs being competitive is coming at a time in which a lot of people watching Wall Street are very worried about the AI bubble in The US.

我认为这两种叙事并存并非偶然。

I think the two of them coexisting as narratives is not a coincidence.

詹姆斯，我确实想问你一个问题：你实际使用过这些不同的模型吗？

One question I do have for you, James, is have you actually used the different models?

我本人已经试用过一些美国和中国的不同模型，但我想了解你的使用体验。

I've been playing around a little bit across the different models from The US and China, but I wanna get a sense of what you've experienced.

嗯。

Yeah.

我确实用过。

I have, actually.

我用过很多次DeepSeek。

I've used DeepSeek quite a lot.

我还在继续大量使用DeepSeek。

I continue to use DeepSeek quite a lot.

显然，我用过很多次ChatGPT，最近也开始试用Kimi。

Obviously, I've used ChatGPT quite a bit, and, I've just started to play around with Kimi as well.

说实话，我用得这么浅，根本没感觉到太大差别。

You know, to be honest with I'm using it at such a low level that I don't really notice that much of a difference.

我 basically 就把它当字典和数据库用。

I'm sort of using it as a dictionary, really, and, and as a database.

所以，是的，它们都挺不错的。

So, yeah, I mean, they're all pretty good.

我注意到，DeepSeek 的结果在政治敏感话题上略显回避，而这些话题你可能会期待一个中国大语言模型有所回应，但我必须说，并没有发现什么特别过分的地方。

I have noticed that, the deep SEEK results are a little bit skewed away from politically sensitive topics that, you know, you might expect from a Chinese LLM, but, I haven't noticed anything too egregious, I must say.

但还有一个关于安全性的疑问始终萦绕在背景中，我认为许多人对中国大语言模型的安全性感到担忧。

But there is this question about security, which is hanging in the background, and I think that a lot of people are concerned by the question of security with regard to Chinese large language models.

我应该引用一下《金融时报》最近的一篇文章，该文称阿里巴巴为中国军方对抗美国目标提供技术支持。

I should cite an article by the Financial Times just recently that says that Alibaba provides tech support for the Chinese military against targets in The United States.

现在我必须对此非常谨慎。

Now I need to be very careful about this.

这些说法被《金融时报》独立核实后遭到阿里巴巴的强烈否认。

The claims, which couldn't be, independently verified by the Feet, were rejected very forcefully by Alibaba.

他们表示，来自你消息来源的这一信息完全是无稽之谈。

They said that this information leaked from your source is complete nonsense.

所以这是一个非常强烈的否认，但我认为，对于西方用户而言，中国大语言模型的安全问题始终会是一个挥之不去的隐患。

So that's a very strong denial, but there is always gonna be this issue of security hanging over the Chinese large language models, I think, to users in the West at least.

是的。

Yeah.

我完全同意，我认为我们应该关注这个领域。

I I completely agree, and I think that we should watch this space.

我认为，这些大语言模型被政治化只是时间问题，就像半导体一样。

I think it's a matter of time before these LLMs get politicized in the same way that semiconductors have been.

我确实认为这很有可能发生。

I actually think that that is a likely outcome.

我们越谈论Kimi和DeepSeek，越担心美国的AI泡沫，我认为针对这些中国大语言模型的政治反弹就会越强烈。

The more that we talk about Kimi and DeepSeek and the more that we worry about an AI bubble in The US, I think the more political backlash there will be against some of these Chinese LLMs.

但为了总结这个讨论，我在研究Kimi的架构时觉得很有意思。

But just to round up this discussion, I thought it was interesting as I looked into into Kimi's architecture.

它比美国的大语言模型更高效的一个原因是，它采用了专家混合架构，而ChatGPT和其他一些大语言模型则使用的是密集模型。

One of the reasons that it is more efficient than the American LLMs is that it uses this thing known as the mixture of experts design, whereas ChatGPT and some of these other LLMs are using a dense model.

这种专家混合架构在运行时只调用部分参数，而密集模型则会使用全部参数。

This mixture of experts design only utilizes certain parameters when created, and a dense model uses them all.

据称，Kimi K2的参数量超过一万亿，但每次运行仅使用约320亿个参数。

And apparently, the Kimi k two is over a trillion parameters, but it will only use about 32,000,000,000 at a time.

这让我想到最后一点，我想以此作结：它表明中国人工智能在研究层面正以一种非常不同的方式发展。

And this points to, I think, one last note that I'll end on is it points to the example in which Chinese AI is, at a research level, evolving in a very, very different way.

因此，当我越来越深入思考这个领域，并试图快速补课，因为变化实在太快时，我看到中美之间正在发生两种截然不同的AI物种的共同演化。

And so the more that I think about the space, and I'm trying to read up very quickly because it's changing so quickly, I I see that sort of coevolution of two very, very different species of AI that I think is is is happening right now between China and The US.

好的。

Okay.

短暂休息后，我们将继续带来更多内容，请继续关注。

We'll be back with more after a quick break, so stay with us.

今天的节目由阿波罗全球管理公司赞助。

Support for today's show comes from Apollo Global Management.

如果我们固守的现状其实已经不复存在了呢？

What if we're clinging to a status quo that no longer exists?

如果公开市场不再反映经济现实呢？

What if public markets no longer reflect the economy?

如果你的投资组合中有数百个公开持股，却只讲一个故事呢？

What if your portfolio has hundreds of public holdings but only one story?

如果增长发生在指数之外呢？

What if growth lives where the index doesn't?

如果大型项目持续时间超过了原本计划投入的资金呢？

What if large scale projects outlast the capital intended to fuel them?

如果私人市场支撑了美国超过80%的贷款呢？

What if private markets power over 80% of US lending?

如果银色海啸早已不是未来的事呢？

What if a silver tsunami is no longer on the horizon?

它已经来了。

It's here.

如果传统养老计划存在漏洞呢？

What if there's a hole in traditional retirement plans?

如果我们一直低估了变革的影响呢？

What if we've constantly underestimated the impact of change?

如果金融世界的运行方式与你想象的完全不同呢？

What if the financial world doesn't work the way you think it does?

这些不仅仅是假设。

These aren't just hypotheticals.

在一个不断前进的世界里，你的思维不能停滞不前。

In a world moving forward, your thinking can't sit still.

请在 apollo.com/ask-what-if 预订首版内容。

Reserve your first edition at apollo.com/ ask what if.

本节目由阿波罗全球管理公司赞助。

Support for today's show comes from Apollo Global Management.

如果我们固守着一个已不复存在的现状呢？

What if we're clinging to a status quo that no longer exists?

如果公开市场不再反映经济现实呢？

What if public markets no longer reflect the economy?

如果你的投资组合中有数百项公开持股，却只讲一个故事呢？

What if your portfolio has hundreds of public holdings but only one story?

如果增长存在于指数之外呢？

What if growth lives where the index doesn't?

如果大型项目持续时间超过了原本为其提供资金的资本期限呢？

What if large scale projects outlast the capital intended to fuel them?

如果私人市场主导了美国超过80%的贷款呢？

What if private markets power over 80% of US lending?

如果所谓的‘银色海啸’早已不再只是未来威胁呢？

What if a silver tsunami is no longer on the horizon?

它已经来了。

It's here.

如果传统养老计划存在漏洞呢？

What if there's a hole in traditional retirement plans?

如果我们一直低估了变革的影响呢？

What if we've constantly underestimated the impact of change?

如果金融世界的运行方式与你想象的完全不同呢？

What if the financial world doesn't work the way you think it does?

这些都不是假设。

These aren't just hypotheticals.

在一个不断前进的世界里，你的思维不能停滞不前。

In a world moving forward, your thinking can't sit still.

请前往 apollo.com/ask-what-if 预订首版内容。

Reserve your first edition at apollo.com slash ask what if.

欢迎回来。

Well, welcome back.

东亚的紧张局势正在急剧升温。

Tensions are well and surely boiling in East Asia.

中国和日本因台湾问题爆发了激烈的外交冲突，威胁、辱骂，甚至提及斩首的言论已登上头条。

China and Japan are locked in a fiery diplomatic clash over Taiwan with threats, insults, and even references to beheading now making the headlines.

这一切始于日本新首相高市早苗表示，中国对台湾的攻击可能引发日本的军事回应。

And it all started when Japan's new prime minister, Sanae Takaji, said a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response.

这是现任领导人罕见的明确立场，北京迅速回应，召见日本大使，警告若日本干预将遭到毁灭性打击，并在官方媒体上抨击高市早苗为‘邪恶女巫’，同时警告中国公民避免前往日本旅行。

This is a rare explicit stance from a sitting leader, and Beijing responded swiftly, summoning ambassadors, issuing warnings of a crushing defeat if Japan intervenes and lashing out in state media, calling Takahichi a, quote, unquote, evil witch and warning Chinese citizens to avoid travel to Japan.

这场争端所揭示的，远不止台湾问题本身。

The spat highlights more than just the issue of Taiwan.

它还涉及历史积怨、领土争端以及日本安全立场的转变。

It also involves historical grievances, territorial disputes, and Japan's shifting security posture.

日本作为美国在该地区的关键盟友，可能在美军逐步撤退的同时，越来越发挥威慑作用。

Japan, America's key ally in the region, may increasingly act as a deterrent while The US pulls back.

高市早苗的强硬立场，即使在保守的美国盟友眼中，也可能提升她在国内和国际上的实际声望。

And Takayichi's hardline could boost her actual standing at home and abroad even with conservative American allies.

詹姆斯，我觉得这让我再次产生了2010年的既视感，当时我们经历了钓鱼岛事件。

James, I think that this is giving me twenty ten deja vu all over again when we had the Shinkaku Island incident.

当时日本曾遭遇过几个月的稀土出口禁运。

We had the rare earth embargo for a couple months in Japan.

许多中国普通民众曾抵制日本商品，焚烧日本商品，避开日本商店。

We had a lot of Chinese, everyday Chinese citizens boycotting Japanese goods, burning Japanese goods, eluding Japanese stores.

坦率地说，我不惊讶中国会以如此强硬的方式回应，如果中国民众像过去那样，因反日或极端民族主义情绪而全面抵制日本，我也不会感到意外。

And I'm not surprised, frankly, that China has reacted in a pretty aggressive manner, and I wouldn't be surprised if everyday Chinese boycott Japan entirely as they've done in the past anytime there has been an anti Japan or or or hyper nationalist movement.

毫不意外的是，中国航空公司上周末宣布，允许所有乘客免费取消或更改前往日本的航班，因为北京已基本敦促公民避免前往日本。

It's no surprise that Chinese airlines announced over the weekend that they would allow all passengers to cancel or change Japan bound flights free of charge after Beijing basically urged the citizens to avoid visiting Japan.

我认为，这正好发生在特朗普明显试图从该地区的美国承诺中撤退的时刻。

This comes at a time, I think, where Trump is clearly trying to pull back from US commitments in the region.

日本，我认为，正对此状况感到相当担忧，因为它极度依赖美国提供的威慑力量，而日本本身并非核武器国家，这一点我们稍后会谈到。

Japan, I think, is sitting there pretty worried about the state of affairs given that it relies so heavily on the deterrence that The US offers and that Japan is not a nuclear power, which we'll get into in just a bit.

在政治上，双方都希望强硬对峙的此刻，我若身处这一地区，肯定会感到不安。

I certainly would be nervous sitting in this region at a time where, politically, both sides wanna play hardball.

但詹姆斯，你对这件事怎么看？毕竟你在该地区生活了相当长的时间。

But what what's your take on this, James, having lived in the region for quite a bit of time?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我曾在日本、中国和台湾生活过，也就是这些正在博弈的国家和地区。

I mean, I I've I've lived in Japan and China and Taiwan and, you know, the the countries that are in play.

让我惊讶的是，局势升级得如此之快。

It's amazing to me how quickly this has escalated.

在短短一段时间内，事情就从零迅速飙升到60，甚至120。

It's gone from zero to 60 or zero to a 120 in what feels like a very short period of time.

你知道吗，我周日早上醒来时，在社交媒体上看到三艘中国军舰正驶向尖阁诸岛，而该岛屿是日本和中国存在争议的领土。

You know, I woke up on, Sunday morning to see on my social media feeds three Chinese warships steaming towards the Senkaku Islands, which are, territory disputed by Japan and China.

这真的非常戏剧性。

It really was quite dramatic.

我认为这对西方，特别是对美国也很重要，因为日本是美国在亚洲最重要的盟友。

And I think it's important for the West as well, particularly for The United States because, of course, Japan is America's leading ally in Asia.

日本还 hosting 多个美军基地，而且这些基地规模巨大。

Japan also plays host to several US military bases, and these are really major.

位于东京湾附近的横须贺海军基地是美国第七舰队的母港，那里停泊着大量美国军舰。

The Yokosuka Naval Base just near Tokyo Bay is the home port for the US seventh fleet, and there's a large number of US ships there.

那里还停靠着名为‘乔治·华盛顿号’的核动力航空母舰。

And it also has the nuclear powered aircraft carrier called the USS George Washington.

这是美国海军中最顶尖的舰艇之一。

This is one of the, you know, the premier ships in the US Navy.

因此，任何日中之间的摩擦，尤其是像这次这样明显具有军事性质的冲突，对华盛顿来说都是重大问题。

So any kind of a flare up between Japan and China, especially if it has a military dimension, which this one very clearly does, is a big issue for Washington.

我想象这正在让全美国人心跳加速，就像对你我而言一样。

And I imagine it's, it's quickening pulses all over The US, just as it is for for you and I.

当然，日本方面现在正试图降温。

Of course, the Japanese side is now trying to deescalate.

他们派出了亚洲和大洋洲事务局局长金井正基前往北京。

They have, sent over Masaki Kanai, who is head of the foreign ministry's Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau.

他们派他去北京，希望能设法缓和局势。

They sent him to Beijing to see if he can sort of pat try and patch things up.

但与此同时，正如你已经提到的，这给一些日本股票带来了沉重打击。

But, in the meantime, as you've already alluded to, this is hammering some Japanese stocks.

你知道，我们看到伊势丹和三越百货的母公司股价已下跌超过10%。

You know, we've seen the Isetan and Mitsukoshi department store owner, that stock price has fallen over 10%.

此外，东京迪士尼乐园的运营商股价也下跌了近6%。

And also the Tokyo Disneyland operator, that's lost nearly 6%.

日本航空的股价也下跌了。

Japan Airlines is down.

这一切都因为这些公司从中国游客前往日本中获得了巨大利益。

This is all because these companies benefit hugely from Chinese tourists going to Japan.

正如你所说，爱丽丝，一旦民族主义情绪在中国民众中高涨——这显然已经开始发生——中国游客购买日本商品和前往日本旅游的意愿就会立即下降。

And as you've said, Alice, once nationalist fervor grips the Chinese people as it is clearly starting to do, then you immediately see a drop off in the willingness of Chinese to buy Japanese stuff and to travel to Japan.

你如何看待这一点？

How do you see this?

我的意思是，这里显然有历史背景。

I mean, there is obviously historical context here.

我的意思是，为什么在这些时刻，中国人会对日本如此敏感？

I mean, why is it that Chinese feel so triggered as it were by Japan at these moments?

嗯，我的意思是，中国在二战期间曾遭受日本的残酷蹂躏。

Well, I mean, China had a harrowing experience in World War two at the hands of Japan.

日本占领了中国部分地区，甚至推进到了我家族的原籍上海，南京大屠杀以及对中国人口的系统性屠杀，都深深铭刻在中国人的集体记忆中。

Japan occupied parts of China, even getting up to Shanghai where my family's originally from, and the rape of Nanjing or even the systemic wiping out of populations in China are deeply, deeply remembered within the Chinese collective.

我认为这加剧了本已存在的许多

And I think that that probably intensifies a lot of already, I

觉得

think,

战略对手，背后有诸多因素在起作用。

strategic rivals of reason issues at play.

因此，存在着根深蒂固的历史不信任。

So there's a deep set historical mistrust.

但与此同时，我认为从真正的政治角度来看，日本对崛起的中国及其对亚太地区的影响深感忧虑。

But at the same time, I think when we look at it from a real political standpoint, Japan is deeply worried about an ascendant China and what that means for the Asia Pacific region.

如果美国最终决定不再充当区域和全球霸主，日本将处于非常、非常、我认为是孤立的状态，因为它自身没有核威慑能力。

If The US decides that it ultimately doesn't wanna be a regional and global hegemon, Japan is in a very, very, I think, isolated state because it has no nuclear deterrence of its own.

根据它在二战后与美国签署的条约，日本不能拥有具备进攻能力的军事力量。

It cannot according to the treaty that it signed after World War two with the Americans, it cannot have an offensive military capable of warfare.

而且它还奉行三项非核原则，即不拥有、不制造、不允许核武器进入其领土。

And it has the three non nuclear principles, meaning that it cannot possess, produce, or allow the introduction of nuclear weapons onto its territory.

因此，我认为从现实政治和现实主义的角度来看，日本处境极为艰难，我不惊讶于竹内试图质疑这三项非核原则。

So I think Japan, from a realpolitik, realist standpoint, is in a very desperate situation, and I'm not surprised that Takeichi is trying to draw into question the three non nuclear principles.

这是中国感到担忧的另一个原因，据她身边的人表示。

That is another reason why China is worried because and this is according to people close to her.

她显然希望质疑严格遵守不引入核武器原则的做法，因为最终她希望允许美国的核武装舰艇停泊在日本港口，以在台海或该地区可能发生对峙时，形成对中国的可信核威慑。

She apparently wants to call to question the strict adherence of the no introduction of nuclear weapons principle, because ultimately, she wants to allow US nuclear armed vessels to sit in Japanese ports to basically have a credible nuclear deterrence against China in a potential showdown over Taiwan or in the region.

因此，我认为这一切都是由该地区主要美中关系的结构性权力转移所驱动的。

So this is, I think, all driven by the tectonic shifts of power mainly in terms of The US China relationship in the region.

我认为，即使短期内我们看到缓和，日本与中国之间的竞争加剧和相互不信任也会加深，日本可能会与韩国、印度、澳大利亚等一些可能在该地区对华对峙中站在对立面的国家走得更近。

And I think, ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised even if we do see a de escalation in the short term that there is, like, an increasing rivalry between Japan and and a mistrust between Japan and China, and that Japan gets closer with, say, Korea, India, Australia, some of these other countries that could be on the opposing side of China if there is a showdown in the region.

但简短地问一下，詹姆斯，你生活在日本，你认为近年来日本对中国的态度是否有转变？

But just very quickly, James, having lived in Japan, do you think that there has been a shift in Japan's attitude towards China in the last few years?

我的意思是，我认为首相高市早苗确实来自自民党中对华态度更鹰派的派系。

Well, I mean, I think that certainly prime minister Takayichi comes from the wing of the Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP, which is known to be more hawkish towards China.

她被视为前首相安倍晋三的继任者，而安倍被认为对华态度相当强硬，这一点已经在中国人心中产生影响，使中国对高市早苗未来几年执政将带来什么更加焦虑。

She's seen as a little bit of a successor to Shinzo Abe, the previous prime minister who was, you know, considered to be fairly hawkish towards China, and I think that is already playing out in the minds of the Chinese and making China extra anxious about what the next few years of Takayichi's tenure is going to produce.

因此，我认为我们目前看到的这次紧张升级，可能会为高市早苗任期内的整个基调定下方向，即使日本方面（我相信一定会）试图缓和局势。

So I think that this flare up that we've seen at the moment could set the tone for however long Takayichi is prime minister, even if there are attempts by the Japanese, as I'm sure there will be, to deescalate.

和你一样，我认为这并非持续不断的紧张源头，但两国之间确实存在一种普遍的紧张暗流。

Like you, I see this as a as a, well, maybe not a continuous source of tension, but, you know, a a general undertow of tension between the two countries.

好了，詹姆斯，我们马上休息一下，喝杯咖啡，请继续关注，稍后回来进入下一部分。

Well, James, we're gonna take a quick coffee break, so stay with us as we wait for the next segment.

我是梅根·拉皮诺。

Megan Rapinoe here.

本周《更多一点》节目中，克里斯·莫斯赫将与我们讨论他作为运动员和跨性别运动员倡导者的开创性生涯。

This week on a touch more, Chris Mosher joins us to discuss his groundbreaking career as an athlete and as a trans athlete advocate.

克里斯是首位在入选男子短程铁人三项队后，代表美国参加国际比赛的公开跨性别运动员。

Chris was the first openly trans athlete to represent The United States international competition after making the men's sprint duathlon team.

我们还将以颁发2025年度‘梅根奖’来收官这一年，回顾女子大学篮球，并关注NWSL如何努力留住特里尼蒂·罗德曼。

We're also closing 2025 by giving out some year end Meggies, taking a look at women's college basketball, and, yes, checking in with how the NWSL is trying to keep Trinity Rodman in the league.

请在您收听播客的平台或YouTube上收听《更多一点》的最新一期节目。

Check out the latest episode of a touch more wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

欢迎回来。

Well, welcome back.

这是我最喜欢的播客环节，不仅因为我是个咖啡瘾君子，更因为我觉得这个故事非常惊人。

This is my favorite section of this podcast, not just because I am a caffeine addict, but also I find this story quite astonishing.

中国的咖啡大战正在升温，而星巴克似乎在避其锋芒。

China's coffee wars are brewing up, and Starbucks is taking cover, it seems.

在拥有近八千家门店近三十年后，美国的星巴克将中国业务的多数股权出售给了德宝资本，自己仅保留40%。

After nearly thirty years at 8,000 stores, America's Starbucks is selling a majority stake in its Chinese business to DeBoyu Capital, keeping just 40%.

本土竞争对手如瑞幸和库迪正迅速崛起，开设数千家门店，降低价格，并推出非常奇特的饮品——我敢说，这些饮品完全针对本地口味，比如猪肉淋酱拿铁和含酒精特调饮品。

Local rivals like Luckin and Coty are surging ahead opening thousands of outlets, cutting prices, and serving drinks, very bizarre drinks, I would say, tailored to local tastes from pork drizzled lattes to alcohol infused specials.

星巴克的高端策略和缓慢的产品推出节奏，最终还是跟不上节奏。

Starbucks' premium strategy and slow product rollout just couldn't keep up in the end.

这项合资企业为星巴克带来了本地洞察力、更快的扩张速度以及数字化整合能力，这在仍由微信支付和支付宝主导的市场中至关重要。

This joint venture gives Starbucks local insight, faster expansion, and digital integration critical in a market that remains dominated by WeChat Pay and Alipay.

如今，其他美国品牌如汉堡王和迪卡侬也纷纷效仿，将业务出售给本地合作伙伴，以在中国高度竞争的消费市场中生存下来。

Now other US brands like Burger King and Decathlon are following suit, selling their steaks to local partners to survive amid China's hypercompetitive consumer landscape.

现在最大的问题是：中国仍然是机遇之地，还是本土品牌已经彻底改写了游戏规则？

Now the big question is, is China still a land of opportunity or have homegrown brands completely rewritten the rules?

詹姆斯，我喜欢这个故事的原因有很多，正如之前提到的。

James, I love this story for many many reasons as already alluded to.

但我也注意到，今年早些时候，一位朋友给我发消息说，他在瑞幸纽约门店买了一杯菠萝冷萃咖啡。

But also I had noticed from a friend who sent me a message earlier in the year that that they had picked up a coffee, a pineapple cold brew from Luckin's New York store.

那时我意识到，瑞幸——这个我长期以来只与中国的关联的咖啡品牌，近几年已经变得非常全球化。

And I realized then that that Luckin, a coffee brand that I'd long associated just with China, has become very global in the last few years.

看到这张照片时我觉得很有趣，因为我还记得在疫情期间，它曾破产，此前还发生过财务欺诈事件。

And it was funny for me to see this picture because I still remember during COVID went bankrupt and prior to that, I had cases of financial fraud.

所以我惊讶地发现，他们不仅再次盈利，还试图在纳斯达克重新上市，并且现在至少在纽约有两家门店，据称其常规价格的冰拿铁低至5.75美元。

So I was surprised to see that they not only have become profitable again, but they are trying to relist in the Nasdaq and now have at least two stores that I know of in New York where apparently the regular priced iced latte costs as little as $5.75.

我曾与住在纽约的一些同事比较过，他们说在星巴克和其他地方，一杯冰拿铁要6到8美元，但听众们请务必纠正我们。

Now I've compared that to some of my colleagues living in New York who say that at Starbucks and other places, you could get an iced latte for 6 to 8 US dollars, but listeners should definitely correct us.

我确知，首次下载应用的用户可以以1.99美元的价格买到咖啡。

I do know for a fact that people who download the app as first time users can have coffee for as little as a dollar 99.

因此，这种策略他们一直保留至今，并在中国市场取得了成功。

So this is a strategy that they've definitely kept alive that has been successful in the Chinese context.

但我对它们能否像逆转星巴克一样在美国取得成功持一点怀疑态度，因为我认为中国市场与美国大不相同，它们要想在美国真正生存下去，可能得烧掉大量现金。

But I am a little bit skeptical that they can do a reverse Starbucks and be as successful in America because I do think the Chinese market is quite different and that they'd have to burn a lot of cash to really survive in in America.

但看到Luckin这些充满野心的高管，以及我在中国非常喜爱的另一家茶饮公司Chaji，确实很有趣。

But it's interesting to see these hungry executives in Luckin, but also another tea company that I I really love in China called Chaji.

它们主打精品冰茶。

They do specialty iced teas.

这些高管正努力跨越太平洋，希望在美国也能像在中国一样取得成功。

These executives are really trying to jump over The Pacific and and be as successful in America as they were in China.

我有点怀疑，但詹姆斯，如果你不同意，请反驳我。

I'm a little skeptical, but James, please refute me if you disagree.

我很喜欢这个说法。

I love that.

我的意思是，我之前没听过这个故事。

I mean, I hadn't heard that story.

Luckin咖啡进军美国，一杯咖啡卖1.99美元。

Luckin Coffee going to America and selling coffee for $1.99 a a cup.

嗯？

Yeah?

我的意思是，这真的非常了不起。

I mean, that's, that's really, quite something.

这将帮助纳丹尼让纽约变得更实惠。

That's gonna help help Nandani make New York more affordable.

没错。

That's right.

当然会的。

Well, they certainly will.

我的意思是，如果咖啡味道还行，我肯定不会介意花1.99美元买一杯。

I mean, I certainly wouldn't have any qualms about, you know, buying a coffee for $1.99 if it tasted okay.

但这个故事也让我有很多共鸣，因为1999年星巴克进入中国时，我正在北京。

But, you know, this story has quite a lot of resonances for me too because I was in Beijing when Starbucks arrived in 1999.

我报道了星巴克在中国的首家门店，它位于世贸中心。

I reported on the first Starbucks shop, which was in the World Trade Center.

那时候，我们所有人——我肯定不是唯一一个，那里的记者都在写，星巴克试图在一个有着数千年茶文化的国家卖咖啡。

And, you know, at that time, we all, I certainly wasn't the only one, or the journalists there were all writing about how Starbucks had the to try to sell coffee to a country with thousands of years of tea culture.

很多人说，这永远不会成功。

There was a lot of quotes from people saying this will never catch on.

结果我们错得离谱。

And then look how wrong we were.

你知道吗？

You know?

现在 literally 有成千上万家门店。

There's literally thousands and thousands of stores.

所以，这是一方面。

So that was one thing.

但这个故事中另一个让我特别着迷的方面，我希望你能帮我分析一下，因为我觉得你比我专业得多，那就是它揭示了中国人的口味变化。

But the other really fascinating aspect of this story to me, which I hope you'll be able to help me with because I think you're much more of an expert than I am, is what it says about Chinese tastes.

你已经提到，外国品牌的光环效应——不只是星巴克，还有中国其他许多品牌——正在开始减弱。

You already mentioned that the halo effect of foreign brands, not just Starbucks, but plenty of others in China is beginning to slip.

我们看到苹果正在让位于本地竞争对手。

We've seen Apple giving ground to local competitors.

我们看到雅诗兰黛正在让位于本地竞争对手。

We've seen Estee Lauder giving ground to local competitors.

路威酩轩在奢侈品领域也在做同样的事情。

LVMH in the luxury sector doing the same thing.

所以另一个方面是本地化，也许这包括中国公司对中国人真正想喝什么、吃什么有了更好的理解。

So the other aspect of it is the localization, which maybe includes a better understanding by Chinese companies of what Chinese really want to drink or to eat.

我不知道。

And I don't know.

也许这有点离谱。

Maybe this is a bit outlandish.

爱丽丝，请告诉我。

Alice, please tell me.

但我在网上发现了一家位于中国西南部的咖啡店，他们在咖啡上面放了烤猪肠串。

But, I found something online about a coffee shop that opened in Southwestern China that had cooked pork intestines, like, on a skewer on top of the coffee.

而且，这其实是星巴克早些时候的做法。

And then there was also actually, this was Starbucks earlier on.

我想大概是去年年底，他们在咖啡上淋了猪油。

I think it was the end of last year putting, like, pork fat drizzle onto their coffee.

我不知道这是否属于这种离奇的极端例子，但也许我们可以更主流地谈谈中国人的口味，以及中国公司比外国公司更懂中国人的口味。

I don't know if this is the sort of the outlandish edge of this, but maybe there's something more mainstream to say about Chinese taste and the ability of Chinese companies to understand Chinese taste better than foreign companies.

你觉得这有道理吗？

Do you think there's anything in that?

首先，我认为这些可能更离谱一些。

Well, firstly, I think that those are probably a bit more outlandish.

我现在清楚地记得，你提到的去年夏天，当时风靡一时的是人们把 malti 倒进咖啡里。

Distinctly remember now that you're talking last year, during the summer, what was viral at the time was people putting Malti in coffee.

所以，对于不了解的人，malti 是中国的米酒，不过，很多不喜欢 malti 的人会说，它的味道就像劣质的清酒。

So Malti, for listeners who don't know, is China's sake, although, you know, many people who don't like Malti would say they probably taste like a poor man's sake.

它是一种白色的烈酒。

It's a a type of white spirit.

因此，他们试图复兴马蒂品牌，并将其与咖啡混合。据称，这种饮品在网络上非常火爆，尤其是中国年轻一代的Z世代纷纷外出饮用这种马蒂冰咖啡。

And so they were trying to revive the Malti brand and mix it with coffee, And apparently, it was really viral online, and especially Gen Z young Chinese people were going out and drinking these multi iced coffees.

但我讲这个故事的原因是，中国市场的变化和演进速度非常快，人们热衷于潮流。

But the reason I tell the story is that, I mean, the Chinese marketplace is so quick moving and evolving, and they love fads.

他们喜欢新趋势。

They love new trends.

因此，这种高度实验性的做法在某种程度上契合了中国的商业模式。

And so in a way, this sort of hyper experimentation fits within the Chinese model.

但我认为，中国模式所展示的另一个更易被接受的方面，而非美国那些奇怪的猪油拿铁，是技术平台。

But the other thing that I think that the Chinese model shows that I think will be more well received rather than these crazy pork fat lattes in The US context is the technology platform.

在中国，当你去瑞幸、茶芝兰或任何这些连锁店时，几乎没有人会在收银台点单。

So in China when you go to a Luckin or a Chaji or any of these chains, almost nobody orders at the till.

事实上，如果你真的这么做，人们会奇怪地盯着你，而且你也不会用现金付款。

In fact, if you do, people kind of stare at you strangely and you don't pay with cash.

几乎所有人都通过应用程序或二维码支付。

Almost everyone is paying in app or with a QR code.

所以他们来取餐。

So they pick up.

这是一个极其高效的商业模式，当你看到人们忙碌穿梭时，确实令人叹为观止。

It's a hyper efficient business and when you see the people move, it's it's actually quite sight to behold.

我认为，将这种技术和运营模式引入美国市场，可能会非常受欢迎，并让整个运营变得更加高效。

And I think bringing some of that technology and operation system to The US context could be, I think, quite well received and and just make the whole operation more efficient.

我对这些奇特的口味并不确定，而且当我看到瑞幸咖啡在纽约的菜单时，发现其产品选择已经相对保守了。

I'm not so sure about these crazy tastes, and already when I see the Luckin Coffee menu in New York, it's a bit more tame in terms of what's available.

目前，他们正推出感恩节主题饮品，比如焦糖爆米花冰拿铁、肉桂南瓜冰拿铁。

Right now, they're going in the Thanksgiving theme with these caramel popcorn iced lattes, these cinnamon pumpkin iced lattes.

所以更贴近美国本土的感恩节主题。

So more within The US, you know, Thanksgiving theme.

但正如你刚才讲述的那个故事，詹姆斯，咖啡之所以能席卷中国，是因为它改变了文化，我认为这是一个重要的启示——因为当年没有人能预料到，星巴克在九十年代初进入中国时，竟会最终让咖啡文化在中国如此盛行。

But certainly, the way you were telling that story, James, about how coffee really did take China by storm because it changed the culture, I think is an important lesson because I don't think anybody looking at Starbucks in the early nineties could have foreseen, you know, the fact that coffee really took over China.

而另一方面，星巴克在中国的市场已经触及顶峰。

And, you know, the the flip side of this is that Starbucks has already reached peak China.

其在中国的市场份额从2019年的34%下降到去年的仅14%。

Its market share in China fell from 34% in 2019 to just 14% as of last year.

这再次印证了你的观点，詹姆斯，随着中国消费者的口味日益西化，他们又回头寻找本土替代品。

And this is again another sign to your point, James, that as tastes have been westernized within China, they've gone back to finding Chinese alternatives.

在未来的节目中，我很想探讨一下奢侈品、零售和食品领域中的不同品牌。

And on future episodes, I'd love to explore that with different brands in luxury, in retail, in food.

关于黄金，这里也有一个故事可讲，比如Lopo就像是中国的卡地亚。

There's a story about gold here to tell as well with Lopo being Chinese Cartier.

我认为，这一持续的趋势是，会出现越来越多针对过去几十年变化的口味而设计的中国本土替代品。

I think that that this is the ongoing trend is that there's gonna be these Chinese alternatives that cater to changed palette over the last few decades.

不过，当然，我非常期待一两周后前往纽约，尝一尝这些纽约本地制作的瑞幸咖啡。

But, yeah, certainly, I'm excited to head over to New York in a week or two and and try some of these New York made Luckin coffees.

告诉我们吧。

Let us know.

告诉我们你的想法。

Let us know what you what you think.

是的。

Yeah.

在结束之前，詹姆斯，我必须问你一下，你最喜欢或最常喝的咖啡是什么？

And and before we end, James, what's your I have to ask you, what is your favorite or preferred coffee and choice?

天哪。

Oh, goodness me.

我可真是无聊透顶。

I'm I'm incredibly boring.

我就喝美式咖啡，加一点牛奶。

I'm I'm just Americano with a dash of milk.

就这样。

That's it.

好的。

Okay.

那我到纽约时会试试看，然后告诉你。

Well, I'm gonna try that when I go to New York and and tell you.

我现在非常喜爱抹茶拿铁，但也特别喜欢白咖啡或康塔多。

I'm very much I would say I love a matcha latte right now, but I also am very partial to a flat white or a cortado.

嗯。

Mhmm.

咖啡味更浓一些。

Heavier on the coffee.

嗯。

Mhmm.

好的。

Alright.

詹姆斯，这是本集我最期待的环节——预测时间。

James, this is my favorite time of the episode prediction time.

当你凝视你的水晶球时，对近期未来有什么预测？

What's your prediction as you look at your crystal ball for the near future?

好的。

Okay.

我有一件事想说，关于人形机器人。

I've got something about, humanoid robots.

这是我最喜爱的话题之一。

This is one of my favorite topics.

我的意思是，我们以前也提到过人形机器人，但我有一个具体的预测。

I mean, we have mentioned humanoid robots before, but I I've got a specific prediction.

所以，优必选公司的负责人王兴兴表示，中国的人形机器人将在三年内迎来他所说的‘ChatGPT时刻’。

So Wang Xingxing, who is the head of Unitree, that's the company that makes one of China's most advanced humanoid robots, said that humanoid robots in China will reach their, what he called, chat GPT moment within three years.

他将机器人版的‘ChatGPT时刻’定义为：当一个机器人能够走进一个从未去过的房间，找到有人要求它找的水杯，把水倒进杯子里，然后端给主人并交到对方手中。

Now he defined the chat GPT moment for robots as when a robot will be able to walk into a room that it's never been in before, find something like a glass of water that it's been asked to find, pour the water into a glass, and then bring it back to its, host and give it to them.

但目前，人形机器人还做不到这一点。

So at the moment, this is not how humanoid robots work.

现在的人形机器人都是预先编程来执行特定任务的。

Humanoid robots are preprogrammed to do specific tasks.

他所指的是，人形机器人能够评估周围环境，思考需要做什么，找到解决方案，并最终完成任务。

What he's talking about is where a humanoid robot can assess its surroundings, think what it needs to do, find a solution, and then deliver on the solution.