如何停止过度思考 - 纳瓦尔·拉维坎特

欢迎收听《坚韧心智》播客。本期节目您将听到纳瓦尔·拉维坎特分享的《如何停止过度思考》。点击节目简介中的链接获取《坚韧心智日记》。请享受本期内容。

Welcome to the Resilient Mind Podcast. In this episode, you will be listening to How to Stop Overthinking with Naval Ravikant. Get access to the Resilient Mind Journal by clicking the link in the show notes. Enjoy.

你之前提到焦虑。想象一下如果你不再终日焦虑会有多高效——这确实是你的特质之一。而焦虑堪称二十一世纪的标志性情绪。许多进取型人群都高度焦虑、多疑，正是这种特质让他们受到影响。

You mentioned anxiety before. Imagine how effective you'd be if you weren't anxious all the time is is one of yours. And anxiety is the emotion du jour of the twenty first century. And and lots of driven people, very anxious, very paranoid. That's what's caused them to be affected.

他们过度关注细节，无法释怀。彻夜辗转反侧——这就是多疑在作祟。关于应对焦虑，你有哪些心得？

They pay so much attention, detail oriented, not letting things go. Staying up at night, thinking about it, that's the paranoia coming in. What have you come to learn about anxiety and dealing with it?

焦虑和压力很有意思，它们密切相关。压力就像——想象一根钢梁。当钢梁受压时，是因为同时受到两个相反方向的力。所以当你的大脑承受压力时，说明它同时存在两个相互冲突的欲望。

So anxiety and stress are interesting. They're very related. Stress is when, like, if you look at an iron beam. When an iron beam is under stress, it's because it's being bent in two different directions at the same time. So when your mind is under stress, it's because it has two conflicting desires at once.

比如，你既想受人喜爱，又想自私行事，当无法调和两者时就会产生压力。又想为他人付出，又想为自己考虑，对吧？再比如你不想上班却想赚钱——这种矛盾就会带来压力。

So for example, you know, you you want to be liked, but you wanna do something selfish, and you can't reconcile the two, and so you're under stress. You wanna do something for somebody else. You wanna do something for yourself. Right? These are exam you you don't wanna go to work, but you wanna make money, so you're under stress.

明白吗？这就是欲望冲突。我认为缓解压力的方法之一，就是先承认'啊，我确实有两个矛盾的需求'。然后要么解决它，选择其一并坦然放弃另一个；要么暂缓决定。光是意识到压力根源就能大大缓解症状。

Right? So you have two conflicting desires. And I think one of the ways to get through stress is to acknowledge that, oh, I actually have two conflicting desires. And either I need to resolve it, I need to pick one and then be okay losing the other, or I will decide later. But at least just being aware of why your stress can help alleviate a lot of stress.

而焦虑更像是种弥漫性的、难以定位的压力。你长期感到压抑，却不明缘由，甚至找不到根本问题。这是因为生活中堆积了太多未解决的压力源，多到已无法辨识具体问题。嗯...就像你心里有座垃圾山，焦虑只是冰山露出的一角，底下还埋着大量未处理的事情。

And then anxiety, I think, is sort of this pervasive unidentifiable stress where you're just kind of stressed out all the time, and you're not even sure why, and you can't even identify the underlying problem. And the reason for that is because you you have so many unresolved problems, unresolved stress points that have piled up in your life that you can no longer identify what the problems are. Mhmm. There's this mountain of garbage in your mind, and it's a little bit of it poking out the top like an iceberg, and that's anxiety. But underneath, there's a lot of unresolved things.

所以每次焦虑时，你需要耐心梳理：'这次我为什么焦虑？不知道？那让我静下心来好好想想。'

And so you just need to kind of go through very carefully every time you're anxious. Like, okay. Why am I anxious this time? I don't know why. Oh, well, let me sit here and just think about it.

我要写下可能的原因，冥想反思，写日记，咨询治疗师，或与朋友聊聊。

Let me let me write down what the possible causes could be. Let me meditate on it. Let me journal. Let me talk to a therapist. Let me talk to my friends.

试着观察压力何时消散。如果能识别、梳理并解决这些问题，就能消除焦虑。很多焦虑源于我们活得太匆忙，从不停下来觉察自身反应，导致问题不断堆积。这和我之前说的'不要过度反思'其实有所矛盾。

Let me just kinda see, like, when does that stress go away? If you can kind of identify and unravel and resolve these issues, then I think that helps get rid of anxiety. A lot of the anxiety is piled up because we move through life too quickly, not observing our own reactions to things. We don't resolve them. So this goes counter to what I was saying earlier about not reflecting too much on things.

但你反思问题是为了观察并解决它们，而非为了自我感觉良好。

But you reflect on the problems to observe them and solve them. You don't reflect on them to feel better about yourself.

沉溺

Indulge

如果只是为了自我感觉良好而反思，那可能会强化你的人格和自尊心，反而塑造出更脆弱的人格。对我而言，一个重要的焦虑缓解方式就是反复思考死亡——这是个好课题。你终将死去。

them. Well, if if if you're doing it to just feel better about yourself, that could be strengthening your personality and your ego, and it could be creating a more fragile personality. You know, one one big anxiety resolve for me is this ruminating on death. I think that's a good one. You're gonna die.

一切终将归零。你带不走任何东西。我知道这是老生常谈，但我们的确没花足够时间思考这些终极问题。我们在很年轻时就已经放弃了它们。小孩子可能会问大问题：我们为何存在？

It's all going to zero. You cannot take anything with you. And I know this is trite, and I know the the the we don't spend enough time thinking about the big questions. We kinda give up on them when we're very, very young. You know, a little child might ask the big questions like, why are we here?

生命的意义是什么？这一切究竟为何？有圣诞老人吗？有上帝吗？但成年后，我们被教导不要思考这些。

What's the meaning of life? What is this all about? You know, is there Santa Claus? Is there God? But then as adults, we're taught not to think about these things.

我们早已放弃追问。但我认为重大问题之所以重大自有其道理。如果你能时刻牢记自己终将死亡、一切终归虚无这个事实，还有什么值得焦虑？

We've given up on them. But I think the big questions are the big questions for good reasons. And if you can keep the idea in front of you at all times that you're going to die and that everything goes literally to zero, What's her to stress about?

是啊。无论好坏，生命都很短暂。人们该如何应对这种短暂性？

Yeah. For better or worse, life is very short. How should people deal with its briefness?

享受它。充分利用它。要知道生命甚至比想象中更短暂——每个瞬间转瞬即逝。

Enjoy it. Make the best of it. You know, it's it's even briefer than that. Each moment just disappears. It's gone.

只存在当下这一刻，而它即刻消逝。所以如果你没有全然活在当下——无论是因压力、焦虑或心不在焉——你就错过了它。任何不在当下的时刻，你对那个瞬间而言就如同死亡。你的心智游离他处，活在某些臆想的现实中，那不过是真实世界的拙劣替代品。我最近的领悟是：什么是浪费时间？

There's only a present moment, and it's gone instantly. So if you're not if you're not there for it, if you're stressed out or you're anxious or you're thinking about something else, you missed it. So you're any moment when you're not in that moment, you are dead to that moment. You might as well be dead because your mind is off doing something else or, you know, living in some imagined reality that is just a very poor substitute for the actual reality. So one of my recent realizations was what is wasted time?

究竟何谓浪费时间？我不愿虚度光阴，但什么才算虚度？从终极角度看，一切时间都是虚度——因为万物皆无意义。但在每个当下，此刻之事又至关重要。

What is what is a waste of time? So I don't like to waste time, but what is wasted time? And everything is wasted time in a sense because nothing matters in the ultimate. Mhmm. But in each moment, the thing matters.

实际上，在每一个瞬间，唯一重要的是眼前发生的事情，它确实承载着世间所有的意义。因此，关键在于全然投入当下。如果你正在做你想做的事并全身心投入其中，时间就没有被浪费。但如果你不想做这件事，心思却逃避它、抗拒它，渴望身处别处，想着其他事情，或担忧未来、懊悔过去、恐惧某些事物——那才是浪费时间。当你未能真正存在于眼前的现实时，时间就被虚掷了。

In each moment, this the only thing that matters, actually, that what's happening in front of you is literally has all the meaning in the world. And so what matters is just being present for the thing. So if you're doing something that you want to do and you're fully there for it, there's not wasted time. If you don't wanna do it and your mind is running away from it and you're reacting against it and you're wishing you were somewhere else and you're thinking about some other thing or you're anticipating some future thing or regretting some past thing or being fearful of something, then that's wasted time. That's time that's being wasted when you're not actually present for the reality in front of you.

所以我对浪费时间的定义是：虽然我确实追求某些物质享受，也明白生活中有些事物价值更高，但生命短暂有限。真正的浪费是当你不在场、不投入、未能以最佳状态沉浸于想做的事情时。如果你没有沉浸在此刻，就是在浪费生命。

So my definition of wasted time, yes, I do want some material things in life, and I you know, there there are things that have more value than others within this life, but this life is very short and bounded. So the true waste of time is a time that you are not present for, when you are not there for it, when you are not doing the thing you want to do to the best of a capability such that you're immersed in it. If you're not immersed in this moment, then you're wasting your time.

人们总担心死亡和消失，却没意识到他们大部分生命本就处于'不在场'的状态。

People get worried about dying and no longer being here, but they don't realize that so much of their life is spent not being here in any case.

没错。但人们其实渴望真正在场。当你全然投入时，你其实不再想着自己——你会更沉浸于当下的事物、时刻和手头的任务中。

That's right. But and I think people crave being here for it. And and and when you're here for it, you're actually not thinking about yourself. You are more immersed in the thing, the the moment, the task at hand.

我们寻求的不是心灵的平静，而是让心灵获得平静。

We don't want peace of mind. We want peace for our mind.

正是如此。若放任不管，躁动的思绪会吞噬你的生命力。而你远比思维更广阔——怎么说？

That's right. Yeah. You don't peace the mind is what killed each you alive if you let it. And there's more to you than the mind. How so?

我的意思是...如果不想像解剖身体那样拆解这个问题的话（请继续）

Well, I mean, the very if if I don't wanna disassemble the body, so to speak. Right? Because Please,

请继续。

go on.

归根结底，一切都在你的意识中显现。你...

Yeah. At the end of the day, like, everything arises within your consciousness. Right? You you

你无处可逃，只能在此体验。

You got nowhere else to experience it.

你说什么？

Sorry?

你无处可逃

You've got nowhere

别的

else

去

to

体验它。去体验它。从某种意义上说，这种意识是相对静止的，从你出生那一刻到你死去那一刻，它完全一样。你所经历的一切，从你的身体、心灵到世界，到一切，都在那个意识之内。那个东西，那个存在的底层，这就是佛教徒会告诉你的，是真实的东西。

experience it. To experience it. And that consciousness is is relatively static in a sense that it's been exactly the same from the moment you were born to the moment you die. And everything that you experience from your body, from your mind to the world to to to everything is within that consciousness. And that thing, that base layer of being, and this is what the Buddhist will tell you, is the real thing.

中间来来去去的一切，包括你的心灵，包括你的身体，都是不真实的。试图在这些短暂的事物中找到稳定，就像你在沙滩上建造的城堡，终将崩塌。

Everything that comes and goes in the middle, including your mind, including your body, is unreal. And trying to find stability in those transient things is is your castle that you're building on sand that's going to crumble.

生活会按照它的方式展开。会有一些好的和一些坏的。实际上，大部分都取决于你的解读。你出生了。你有一系列感官体验，然后你死去。

Life is going to play out the way it's going to play out. There will be some good and some bad. Most of it is actually just up to your interpretation. You're born. You have a set of sensory experiences, and then you die.

你如何选择解读这些体验取决于你自己，不同的人以不同的方式解读它们。

How you choose to interpret those experiences is up to you, and different people interpret them in different ways.

是的。我想起那句老话，两个人走在街上。他们经历完全相同的事情。一个人快乐。

Yeah. I see old line about two people walking down the street. They're having the exact same experience. One is experience. One is happy.

一个人悲伤。对吧？这是他们头脑中的叙事。是他们选择如何解读。所以我想，当我说那句话时，那是很久以前的事了。

One is sad. Right? It's a narrative in their heads. It's how they choose to interpret. So I think when I said that, it was a long time ago.

我之前更多是在谈论积极解读和消极解读。但最近我觉得，最好根本不要有任何解读。

I was talking more about having positive interpretations and negative interpretations. But these days, I think it's better just not to have any interpretations.

就让事物保持它们本来的样子。

And to just allow things to be.

你仍然会有解读。你无法停止它，也不应该尝试停止。但即便是产生解读这件事，你也可以选择不去干预。

You're still gonna have interpretations. You can't stop it, and nor should you try. But even that having an interpretation is just a thing you can leave alone.

是啊。我真的很想试着深入探讨一下

Yeah. I really wanna try and just dig in a little

更多

more

关于如何最好地提醒人们珍惜时间——那些你花在反复思考、分心、对过去的恐惧和懊悔上的时间是多么短暂。

to the best way to remind people that they should value their time, just how brief it is that the time that you spend ruminating, being distracted, fears of the past, regrets.

我不想告诉任何人该如何生活。我只想说，如果你想提高生活质量，最简单有效的方法就是观察自己的心智和想法，不必苛责但要更客观地觉察自己。这样你就能逐渐意识到自己的思维循环和模式。这需要时间，不是一蹴而就的。

Well, I don't wanna tell anybody how to live their life. I would just say that to the extent that you want to improve your quality of life, the the easiest and best way to do that is to observe your own mind and your own thoughts and and be a little not not necessarily critical, but be observant of yourself more objectively. And then you'll kind of realize your own loops and patterns. It takes time. It's not it's not overnight.

不是瞬间就能实现的。

It's not instantaneous.

所以你的意思是放下不是一次性的事件？

So you mean letting go is not a onetime event?

对。而且放下本身未必就是正确答案。如果你想成为开悟者，像神一样生活，追求完美成为佛陀，那当然可以放下。但现实中这非常困难。我认为真正的满足感来自于做自己真正想做的事，真诚探索内心渴望，而不是迎合他人或社会的期待，或者默认应该做的事。

Yeah. And and there's letting go is not necessarily even the right answer. Like, yes, if you're trying to be an enlightened being and, you know, you wanna live like a god and everything's gonna be perfect and be a Buddha, sure, you can let go. But I think in practice, it's actually quite hard to do. I think I would say that it's you're gonna find a lot of fulfillment out of life by just doing what you want to do and genuinely exploring what it is that you want rather than doing what other people expect you to do or society expects you to do or what you might just think it should be done by default.

要知道，我认为大多数年长的成功人士都会告诉你，当他们毫无歉意地按照自己的方式生活时，人生才是最美好的。要自私一点。

You know, I think most older successful people will tell you that their life was best when they lived it unapologetically on their own terms. Be selfish.

整体性的自私。这就对了。完全正确。

Holistic selfishness. There we go. Exactly.

我们可以把这段关于自私的谈话剪出来。对，对，就是这样。

We can we can clip that little I'm telling you that about being selfish. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's it.

继续挥棒吧。反派角色。太棒了。

Just keep running the bat. Bad guy. Great.

我有个见解或者说疑问。你认为我们该多大程度上信任脑海里的声音？因为一半的智慧建议依赖你自下而上的直觉，另一半则要求尽可能保持自上而下的理性。你如何在这种头脑与直觉的张力间找到平衡？

I I had this insight or a question, I guess. How much do you think that we should trust the voice in our heads? Because half of wisdom suggests to rely on your sort of bottom up intuition, and then half of it has to be sort of top down rational as possible. How do you navigate the tension between head and gut in this way?

我认为直觉才是决策者。头脑更像是事后合理化工具。直觉是终极决策机制。而什么是直觉？直觉是经过提炼的判断力。

I think the gut is what decides. The head is kinda what rationalizes it afterwards. The gut is the ultimate decision maker. If it doesn't and and what is a gut? The gut is refined judgment.

它是品味。是聚合器。经过聚合的。可能通过进化在基因和DNA中完成聚合，也可能通过你的经历和思考过程完成聚合。头脑擅长解决外部世界的新问题——那些边界明确、有始有终、目标清晰的问题。

It's taste. Aggregator. Aggregated. And it could be aggregated through evolution, and it's in your genes and your DNA, or it could be aggregated through your experiences and what you've thought through. The mind is good at solving new problems and new problems in the external world that have definite defined edges, you know, beginnings and ends and and objectives.

头脑真正不擅长的是做艰难决定。所以当面临艰难抉择时，我发现最好...是的，你会反复思考，权衡利弊，但最终需要搁置几天。

What the mind is actually really bad at is making hard decisions. So when you have a hard decision to make, I find it's better to yes. You ruminate on it. You think through all the pros and cons, but then you sleep on it. You wait a couple of days.

你要等待直到直觉带着确信浮现，那种感觉对了的时刻。年轻时这个过程更长，因为缺乏经验。年长后可能瞬间顿悟，这就是为什么...

You wait until the gut answer appears with conviction, and it feels right. And when you're younger, it takes longer because you just don't have as much experience. And when you're older, it can happen much faster, which is why, you know And

你剩下的时间更少了

you have less time to

是的。因此老年人往往更固执己见，对吧？他们清楚自己想要什么，也明白自己不想要什么。

Yeah. And old people just more set in their way as a consequence. Right? They know what they want. They know what they don't want.

培养直觉和判断力需要时间。但一旦形成，就不要相信其他东西，因为你无法违背直觉。最终它会反咬你一口。通常，在失败的关系中，你可以回顾说，哦，其实我知道会因为这个原因失败，但我还是继续了，因为我希望事情是这样发展的。对吧？

So it takes time to develop your gut instinct and judgment. But once you've developed them, don't trust anything else because you can't go against your gut. It'll bite you in the end. Usually, in relationships that failed, you can look back and say, oh, actually, I knew it was gonna fail because of this reason, but I kinda went ahead anyway because I wanted it to be this way. Right?

我希望这个人能变成另一种样子。我希望能从中得到与我预期不同的东西，但我就是想要。所以有时候欲望会凌驾于你的判断之上，然后困住你。是的，一厢情愿。

I wanted this person to be a different way than they are. I wanted to get a different thing out of it than I thought I was gonna than I knew I was going to get, but I just wanted it. So sometimes desire will override your judgment and then trap you. Yeah. Wishful thinking.

它会把你困在一条只会消耗时间的路上。不要满足于平庸。而且我认为，比如人们会争论智力。对吧？我们讨论智商测试之类的。

It traps you into a into a pathway that just choose up time. Don't settle for mediocrity. And and I think the only like, people debate intelligence, for example. Right? We talk about IQ tests and all that.

但我认为智力的唯一真正考验是，你是否得到了生活中你想要的东西。这有两部分。一是得到你想要的，所以你知道如何得到它。二是想要正确的东西，首先知道该要什么。我可能想成为一个六英尺八英寸的篮球运动员，但我得不到。

But I think the only true test of intelligence is if you get what you want out of life. And there are two parts to that. One is getting what you want so you know how to get it. And the second is wanting the right things, knowing what to want in the first place. I could wanna be a, you know, six foot eight basketball player, and I'm not gonna get that.

所以这是想要了错误的东西。

So it's wanting the wrong thing.

所以那是想要你得不到的东西。

So That's wanting something that you can't get.

那是想要你得不到的东西。

That's wanting something you can't get.

还有想要你其实并不想要的东西。

There's also wanting something that you don't want.

是的。想要那种安慰奖的东西。世界上也有很多安慰奖。对吧？我大概有二十年没听过这个词了。

Yeah. The wanting something that's a booby prize. There are plenty of booby prizes out there too. Right? I haven't heard that word I haven't heard that word in about twenty years.

是啊。那些根本不值得拥有或会带来自身问题的奖项。

Yeah. Prizes that are just not worth having or that create their own problems.

但如果不小心，你可能会陷入一种不仅自己不想要、甚至本无意达到的生活境地。

But if you're not careful, you can end up in a place in life not only that you don't want to be, but one that you didn't even mean to get to.

那是在你无意识前行的情况下。但有多少人真的清醒呢？通常人们陷入这种境地，是因为他们按照社会期望或他人期望的自动驾驶模式行事。可能是出于愧疚，或是模仿性欲望——就像彼得·蒂尔从勒内·吉拉德那里借鉴的理论：许多欲望是从他人那里习得的。有些欲望已被社会自动植入，比如读法学院、医学院、商学院之类的常规路径。

That's if you're kind of proceeding unconsciously. But how many people are And and usually, I think people end up there because they are going on autopilot with sort of societal expectations or other people's expectations. So, you know or out of guilt or out of, like, mimetic desire. You know, Peter Thiel has this whole thing from Renee Gerard about how mimetic desires or desires are picked up from other people. And some of those are automatically baked into society, like, you know, go to law school, go to med school, go to whatever, go to business school.

也可能是观察朋友或其他‘猴子’的行为所致。或是父母期望的压力，又或是愧疚感——愧疚本质上是社会在你脑海中植入的声音，一种社会编程，让你当好一只顺从的‘猴子’，做对群体有利的事。

Or they might be from watching what your friends are doing and, you know, the other monkeys are doing. Or it might just be, you know, what your parents' expectations are. It might be like guilt. You know? Guilt is just society's voice speaking in your head, socially programmed so you'll be a good little monkey and do things that are good for the tribe.

但我认为最佳结果来自独立思考后的自主决策。人们在这方面花的时间太少了。比如我们生活在四年周期里：硅谷加入初创公司，股票四年归属；大学四年，高中四年，某些事周期更长。

But I think the the the best outcomes come when you think it through for yourself and decide for yourself. And I don't think people spend enough time deciding. For example, we run on these four year cycles. You know, in Silicon Valley, you go join a startup. You vest your stock over four years.

这是标准模式。养育孩子要九年才进入青春期——那是个九年周期。但我们习惯了这些需要长期承诺的多年度周期：法学院四五年，律师生涯四十年。

That's the standard. Okay. In college, you know, you go for four years. High school, you go for four years. Some things take longer.

这些周期非常漫长。而我们用于决定做什么、与谁共事的时间却极短——可能花三个月甚至一个月决定一份要从事五年或十年的工作。由于很多发现具有路径依赖性（下一步取决于上一步的位置），你会沿着某个方向走出很远。

You know, you have children, they hit puberty nine years later. That's like a nine year cycle until that relationship changes. But we're used to these fairly long cycles, multiyear cycles in which we are committed to things. You go to law school, you know, four or five year cycle. You go be a lawyer, forty year cycle.

人们轻率地决定居住城市，而这将决定他们的社交圈、职业、机遇、气候、食物来源、空气质量乃至生活质量。如此重要的决策，思考时间却少得可怜。我认为如果是四年期的决策，就该花一年时间深思熟虑。

These are very long cycles. The amount of time we spend deciding what to do and who to do it with, very short, very, very short. Right? We spend, you know, three months deciding, one month deciding on a job where we're gonna be for ten years or five years. And because a lot of discovery is path dependent, where the next thing you find on the path is dependent on where you were on the previous path, you sort of start going down this vector that is a very long distance.

用25%的时间来思考。

People decide frivolously which city to live in, and that's gonna decide who their friends are, what their jobs are, their opportunity, their weather, their food supply, their air supply, quality of life. You know? It's such an important decision, but people spend so little time thinking it through. I would argue that if you're making a four year decision, spend a year thinking it through, like, really thinking it through.

25%的时间。

25% of the time.

没错，正是如此。这就是秘书定理。不知道你是否听说过这个。这是计算机科学领域的。

Yeah. Exactly. There's the secretary theorem. I don't know if you know that one. Is that computer science.

在面试过这么多人之后，从接下来的若干人中挑选最优秀的一个。

After you've done this many people, pick the best one of the next however many.

对，没错。秘书定理讲的是，一位计算机科学教授试图确定他应该花多少时间面试秘书，以及之后要雇佣秘书多久。假设他打算雇佣一位秘书十年。

That's right. Yeah. Yeah. The secretary theorem is this computer science professor is trying to figure out how much time he should spend interviewing secretaries and then how long to keep the secretary. So let's say he's gonna have a secretary for ten years.

他是否要继续寻找一年、两年、三年，或者一个月、两个月？最优时间是多少？结果发现，最优时间大约是三分之一。在过程进行到约三分之一时，你选择之前合作过的最佳人选，并尝试找到与之相当或更优秀的人。嗯。

Does he keep searching for, you know, one year, two years, three years, one month, two months? What is the optimal time? And it turns out that the optimal time is somewhere around a third. About a third of the way through, you take the best person you've worked with and try to find someone that good or better. Mhmm.

所以，当你进行到大约三分之一时，你已经——抱歉——见识足够多，现在对标准有了概念。之后，任何达到或超过这个标准的人都算是合格的。这适用于约会、工作和职业选择，普遍适用。

So at by the time you've gone about a third of the way through, you have, excuse me, seen enough that you now have a sense of what the bar is. And then anybody who meets or exceeds that bar is good enough. And this applies to dating. This applies to jobs and careers. This applies generally.

但秘书定理有趣的地方在于，它实际上不是基于时间的，不是基于三分之一的时间，而是基于迭代次数的。

But the interesting thing about the secretary theorem is that it's actually not time based. It's not based on one third of the time. It's iteration based.

候选人的数量。数量

The number of candidates. The number

你尝试射门的次数。对，没错。所以你需要进行大量的迭代。因此，在这个

of shots you took on goal. Yeah. That's right. So you want to to have lots and lots of iterations. So in that

意义上，你需要快速放弃，并迅速做出决定。

sense you need to bail out quickly, and you need to be decisive quickly.

正是如此。

That's right.

你需要迅速抓住机会，也要及时抽身。

You need to you need to take opportunities quickly and bail out quickly.

没错。就像回顾那些失败的感情经历时，最大的遗憾往往是明知关系已结束却仍选择停留。是的，本该更早离开。

Correct. Like, if you go back and you look through failed relationships, probably the biggest regret will be staying in the relationship after you knew it over. Yeah. Exactly. You should have left sooner.

当你意识到无法挽回时，就该及时放手。从这个意义上说，马尔科姆·格拉德威尔推广的'一万小时精通法则'，我认为实际上是'一万次迭代达到精通'。并非确切的一万次，而是通过不断迭代推动学习曲线上升。

The moment you knew it wasn't gonna work out, you should have moved on. So in that sense, I think Malcolm Gladwell popularized this idea of ten thousand hours to mastery. I would say it's actually 10,000 iterations to mastery. It's not actually 10,000. It's some unknown number, but it's about the number of iterations that drives a learning curve.

迭代不是重复。重复是机械地做相同的事，迭代则是基于学习进行调整后实施新版本——这就是纠错过程。

And iteration is not repetition. Repetition is a different thing. Repeating is doing the same thing over and over. Iteration is modifying it with a learning and then doing another version of it. So that's error correction.

所以任何领域经过一万次纠错，你都会成为专家。

So if you get 10,000 error corrections in anything, you will be an expert at it.

不要与愤世嫉俗者和悲观主义者为伍。你提到那些家庭生活一团糟却试图拯救世界的人。但很多时候，我们自身的悲观主义源于被动吸收新闻或周围负面言论，或是更内源性地看待世界的方式。

Don't partner with cynics and pessimists. You mentioned there about, the people who've got a nightmare going on at home and are trying to fix the world. But a lot of the time, that cynicism and pessimism we find in ourselves, we see the world whether we want to, whether it's because we've imbibed what the news or or the negative people around us have said, or it's a bit more kind of endogenous than that. It's just sort of in us. It's the way that we see the world.

人们该如何避免自己陷入愤世嫉俗和悲观主义？

How can people avoid cynicism and pessimism within themselves?

悲观主义确实棘手。我们天生就容易陷入这种思维。再次强调进化论——生物学中少有比自然选择更完善的理论体系。

Yeah. Cynicism and pessimism is a tough one. It's we're naturally hardwired for it. Again, I go back to evolution. I I'm sorry to keep harping on evolution, but within biology, there's very few good explanatory theories, and, you know, theory of evolution by natural selection is probably the best one.

如果无法用进化论解释某种生命现象或心理机制，那很可能就没有更优理论。悲观主义正是进化遗留——在原始环境中，听见丛林响动时若贸然接近，是猎物则饱餐一顿，是捕食者则丧命。

So if you can't explain something about life or psychology or human nature through evolution, then you probably don't have a good theory for it. And I would say that pessimism is another one that comes out of this, which is in the natural environment, you're hardwired to be pessimistic. Because let's say that I see something rustling in the woods, and if I move towards it and it turns out to be food and prey, then good. I get to eat one meal. But if it turns out to be a predator, I get eaten, and that's the end of that.

我们天生具备避免毁灭的本能，因此本质上是悲观主义者。但现代社会截然不同——无论存在何种问题，其安全性远超丛林求生环境，且机遇与上升空间呈非线性增长。

So we are hardwired to avoid ruin and and, you know, just dying. So we are naturally hardwired to be pessimists. But modern society is very different. Despite whatever problems you may have with modern society, it is far, far safer than living in the jungle and just trying to survive. And the opportunities and the upside are nonlinear.

例如，当你进行投资时，如果你做空一只股票，你最多能赚到两倍的钱。如果股票跌到零，你就翻倍了。但如果这只股票是下一个英伟达，涨了一百倍或一千倍，你就能赚大钱。因此，由于杠杆作用，上涨空间几乎是无限的。此外，在现代社会，因为你可以与众多不同的人互动，如果一次约会失败了，还有无数其他人可以约会。

For example, when you're investing, if you short a stock, you the most money you can make is two x. You just lose you know, if the stock goes to zero, you double your money. But if the stock is the next Nvidia and it goes a 100 x or a thousand x, you make a lot of money. So upside through because of leverage is nearly unlimited. Also, in modern society, because there's so many different people you can interact with, if you go on a date and it fails, there are infinite more people to go on a date with.

在部落系统中，可能只有20个人，你甚至无法与所有人接触。因此，现代社会对失败的容忍度更高，你只需要从新皮质层面意识到并克服这一点。你必须明白，你更像是在运行一个搜索功能，寻找那个会成功的事物，然后那一件事会带来巨大的复利回报。一旦你找到了你一生的伴侣，找到了你的妻子或丈夫，你就可以在这种关系中实现复利增长。即使中间经历了50次失败的约会也没关系。

In a tribal system, there might have been 20 people, and you can't even get through all of them. So modern society is far more forgiving of failure, and you just have to sort of neocortically realize and override that. You have to realize that you're much more running a search function to find the thing that'll work, and then that one thing will pay off in massive compounding. Once you find your mate for the rest of your life, you find your wife or your husband, then you can compound in that relationship. It's okay if you had 50 failed dates in between.

同样，一旦你找到了那个你注定要投入的事业，它会带来复利回报，即使你经历了50次小规模的失败创业或50次失败的面试也没关系。失败的数量并不重要。因此，做一个悲观主义者毫无意义。你希望成为一个乐观主义者，但我会说，你需要对具体事物保持怀疑态度。每一个具体的机会都可能会失败，但你要在总体上保持乐观。

The same way once you find the one business you're meant to plow into and it'll compound returns, it's okay if you had 50 small failed ventures or 50 small failed job interviews. It doesn't the number of failures doesn't matter. And so there's no point in being a pessimist. It's you wanna be an optimist, but I would say you wanna be you wanna be skeptical about specific things. Every specific opportunity is probably a fail, but you wanna be optimistic in the general.

在总体上，你要相信，这里总会有一些事情会成功。

In the general, you wanna be like, something in here is gonna work out.

你如何应对这种矛盾？

How do you navigate that tension?

我的意思是，就像我说的，我在总体上保持乐观，如果现在某件事失败了，那么这有点玄学，但它本就不该成功。这是一次学习经历，是一次迭代。只要我从中学到了东西，那就是一种胜利。如果我没有学到东西，那就是一种损失。

I mean, exactly as I said, I'm optimistic in the general that if something fails right now, then this is a little woo woo, but it wasn't meant to be. It was a learning experience. It was an iteration. As long as I learned something from it, then it's a win. If I didn't learn from it, then it's a loss.

但只要你不断学习，快速迭代并迅速止损，那么当你找到正确的事物时，你必须保持乐观并投入其中。所以你不应该急于投入第一件事。你不一定要和第一个约会的人结婚，除非你非常幸运。但你需要非常快速地调查和探索，直到找到匹配的对象，然后你必须愿意全力以赴。你必须愿意将筹码推到桌子中央。

But as long as you're learning and you keep iterating fast and cutting your losses quickly, then when you find the right thing, you have to be optimistic and compound into it. So you don't wanna jump into the first thing. You don't wanna marry the first person you date necessarily, unless you got very lucky. But you you want to investigate and explore very, very quickly until you find the match, and then you have to be willing to go all in. You have to be willing to move your chips at the center of the table.

因此，这两种方法都是必需的。

So both those both those approaches are required.

所以这是一种杠铃策略。它要么是黑的，要么是白的，而大多数人则卡在这种灰色地带。我有点半投入，但又不确定自己是否真的投入了。

So it's a barbell strategy. It's sort of black or it's white, and most people are sort of stuck in this gray bit. And I'm, like, half in, but I'm kind of don't really know if I am. And

我还认为，像悲观主义者、乐观主义者、愤世嫉俗者、内向者、外向者这样的标签是非常自我限制的。人类是非常动态的。有时你会感到内向，有时你会感到外向。在某些情境下，你会变得悲观。

I also think, like, labels like pessimists, optimists, cynic, introvert, extrovert, these are very self limiting. Humans are very dynamic. There are times when you feel like being introverted. There are times when you feel like being extroverted. There are contexts in which you'll be pessimistic.

在某些情境下你会保持乐观。别去管那些标签。最好只关注眼前的问题。如实地看待现实。试着从这个意义上把自己从等式中移除。

There are contexts in which you'll be optimistic. Leave all those labels alone. It's better just to look at the problem at hand. Look at reality the way it is. Try to take yourself out of the equation in this in this sense.

显然，你是参与其中的，但动机性推理是最糟糕的推理方式。你无法通过高度动机性的推理找到真相。你必须客观，而客观意味着尽可能把自己抽离出来，或至少尽可能把你的个性抽离出来。因此，如果你带着这种厚重的身份和个性行事，它会蒙蔽你的判断，试图将你禁锢在过去。

Like, obviously, you're involved, but motivated reasoning is the worst kind of reasoning. You're not gonna find truth through highly motivated reasoning. You have to be objective, and objective means trying to take yourself out of it as much as possible or at least your personality out of it as much as possible. And so to the extent you run with this thick identity and personality, it's gonna cloud your judgment. It's gonna try and lock you into the past.

如果你说，我是个抑郁不快乐的人，那么是的，我会不快乐，这是将自己锁在过去的某种方式。甚至说，我有创伤。我有创伤后应激障碍。是的。你确实感受到某些东西。

If you say, I'm a depressed and unhappy person, yeah, I'm gonna be unhappy, that's a way of locking yourself into your past. Even saying, I have trauma. I have PTSD. Yeah. You you feel something.

有些记忆。有些闪回。闪回。偶尔会有糟糕的感觉。但不要以此来定义自己，因为那样你会将其固化到你的身份中，并不断循环其中。

There are memories. There are flashes. Flashes. There are occasional bad feelings. But don't define yourself by it because then you'll lock it into your identity and just gonna loop on it.

保持灵活性更好，因为现实总是在变化，你必须能够适应它。适应也是智慧。智慧。适应适应就是生存。生存。

It's better to stay flexible because reality is always changing, and you have to be able to adapt to it. Adaptation is also intelligence. Intelligence. Adaptation Adaptation is is survival. Survival.

嗯。适应某种程度上是你存在的原因。你在这里是因为你是一个适应者，你的祖先也是适应者。所以为了适应，你会看清事物。而如果你通过自己的身份来看待它们，它会蒙蔽你的判断。

Mhmm. Adaptation is kind of how you're here. You're here because you're an adapter, and your ancestors were adapters. So to adapt, you'll you'll see things clearly. And if you're seeing them through your own identity, it's gonna cloud your judgment.

感谢您的收听。请继续通过收听我们的其他节目来强化您的思维。

Thank you for tuning in. Continue strengthening your mind by listening to our other episodes.