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If you want more from the show, join the rest is history club.
随着圣诞节的临近，你也可以为你生命中的历史爱好者赠送一整年的会员资格。
And with Christmas coming, you can also gift a whole year of access to the history lover in your life.
只需访问restishistory.com并点击礼物选项。
Just head to the restishistory.com and click gifts.
大家好，欢迎收听新一期的《余下皆历史》，我是汤姆·霍兰德。
Hello, and welcome to another episode of the rest is history with me, Tom Holland.
坐在我对面的是永远可爱的多米尼克·桑布鲁克。
Sitting opposite me is the ever lovely Dominic Sambroke.
你太客气了，
You're very kind,
汤姆。
Tom.
多米尼克，上周我们讨论了关于伟大的话题。
And Dominic, last week, we were talking about greatness.
把自己给漏了。
Missed myself out.
所以我想，完全缺乏谦逊是伟大的核心特质之一。
So so I guess a complete lack of modesty is a central attribute of greatness.
但除了你自己之外，我们上周讨论了许多伟人。
But it is Aside from yourself, I mean, we we went through a lot of great people last week.
在这段时间里，你有没有想到什么
In the intervening week, have you come up with any
伟大的人物？
great people?
因为我们没有谈到作家、音乐家。
Because we see we didn't talk about writers, musicians.
我们没有讨论莎士比亚、莫扎特或披头士乐队。
We didn't talk about Shakespeare or Mozart or the Beatles.
所以实际上，不仅仅是我们错了。
So, actually, it's not just about we were wrong.
这不仅仅是关于杀人和进球得分。
It's not just about killing people and scoring goals.
还包括，你知道的，嗯，那完全可以单独做一期播客了
It's also about, you know well, that well, that's a whole podcast
对吧？
in itself, isn't it?
好的。
Okay.
那么猫王、披头士乐队。
So Elvis, the Beatles.
那个，是的。
The the Yeah.
他们确实很伟大。
They'd be great.
好的。
Okay.
嗯，今天，我我在想我们可以讨论一下内战。
Well, today, I I thought that we could we could talk about civil war.
不错。
Nice.
这可不是个令人愉快的话题。
Not not not a cheery topic.
真是个欢乐的主题啊。
Jolly subject.
特别受到我看到的一个惊人调查的启发。
Prompt prompted specifically by an amazing poll I saw.
你看到是因为我给你的
You Well, you saw because I gave it
那个。
to you.
是啊。
Yeah.
它就摆在我面前，调查中将美国人划分为民主党或共和党。
It's and it's sitting right here in front of me in which Americans are identified as Democrat or Republican.
数据显示，现在有三分之一的人认为暴力可以被正当化以实现其政党的政治目标。
It says, one in three now believe that violence could be justified to advance their party's political goals.
而今年在美国，我们已经看到某种武装民兵开始出现在街头。
And this year in America, we've seen kind of armed militias starting to roam the street.
我的意思是，公民秩序的逐渐瓦解与全面内战爆发之间有什么区别？
I mean, it's what what's the difference between a fraying of civil order and full scale collapse into civil war?
历史上对此有哪些经验教训？
What what are the lessons of history on that?
如果你即将陷入内战...是的。
If you're about to collapse into civil war Yeah.
你知道它什么时候会来吗？
Do you know when it's coming?
是的。
Yeah.
你知道它什么时候会来吗？
Do you know when it's coming?
那么，你认为历史上对此有什么教训？
So what what what would you say the the less what are the lessons of history there on that?
哦，这个话题很简单。
Oh, easy subject.
你看，这件事一直让我很着迷，因为我记得上大学时南斯拉夫内战刚爆发。
See, I this is something that's always fascinated me because I can remember going to university at about the point when the Yugoslav civil wars were kicking off.
南斯拉夫是一个贯穿我整个童年的国家。
And Yugoslavia was a country that existed throughout my entire childhood.
你知道的，足球队、国歌，
You know, football team, anthem,
冬季奥运会。
Winter Olympics.
1984年的冬季奥运会。
The Winter Olympics in 1984.
我想应该是托瓦尔丁在萨拉热窝。
Torvaldin in in Sarajevo, I think it was.
所以，南斯拉夫就像是地图上一个固定的点。
So, you know, Yugoslavia was a sort of fixed point in the in the Atlas.
你知道，大家以前都学过贝尔格莱德是首都。
You know, you learned Belgrade was the capital.
八十年代人们会去那里参加包价旅游。
You people went on package holidays in the eighties.
那是个非常时髦的
It was a very trendy
是啊。
Yeah.
算是包价旅游的热门目的地。
Kind of package tour destination.
然后它就突然解体了。
And and then it implodes.
然后它以那种极其可怕的方式分崩离析。
And then it fell apart in that incredibly gruesome way.
我是说，我们这个年龄段的听众都记得，邻居因宗教差异反目成仇——一家是波斯尼亚穆斯林家庭，另一家是波斯尼亚塞族家庭。
I mean, any listeners of our age will remember, you know, neighbor turning on neighbor because of religious differences, because one was a Bosnian Muslim family and one was a Bosnian Serb family.
那种'一切都会瞬间崩塌'的恐怖感，几乎就像JG·巴拉德的噩梦能如此迅速地成为现实。
And that sort of terrifying sense that everything can just fall apart, you know, almost sort of JG Ballard's nightmare can become real so quickly.
我是说，我...是的。
I mean, I Yes.
关键是这发生在现代欧洲国家。
And so it's it's the fact that it's happening in in a European, modern European state.
是啊。
Yeah.
这么说可能很残忍，但显然这也是冲击力的一部分，不是吗？
I mean, that's terrible to say so, but that's obviously part of the impact, isn't it?
因为它离我们如此之近。
That it was so close.
但我想，南斯拉夫解体让我印象深刻的一点是，它某种程度上是一个人为构建的国家。
But I guess I I mean, one thing that strikes me about about the way that Yugoslavia implodes is is that it was a a kind of it was an artificial nation.
是的。
Yeah.
但所有国家都是拼凑而成的。
But all nations have been stitched together.
没错。
Yeah.
但它是由奥匈帝国的组成部分拼凑而成的。
But it was stitched together from the constituent parts of the Austro Hungarian.
还有奥斯曼帝国。
And Ottoman.
以及奥斯曼帝国。
And and the Ottoman Empire.
这些都是已经瓦解的帝国。
So these empires that that that had collapsed.
从某种意义上说，二战后，虽然南斯拉夫并非华约正式成员，但它确实属于共产主义势力范围。
And then in a sense, after the the second world war, it although it wasn't officially part of the Warsaw Pact, it was part of the the the communist sphere of influence.
是的。
Yeah.
因此在这个意义上，它某种程度上被冷战冻结了。
So in that sense, it was it was kind of frozen by the Cold War.
而当柏林墙倒塌时
And it's when the Berlin Wall comes down
它
That it
随着冷战结束，坚冰消融，所有这些所谓的古老仇恨——我并不同意
will and the Cold War, you know, ends that the ice melts and all these kind of ancient hatreds of how I don't I don't agree
这个说法。
with that.
我认为这并非古老的仇恨。
I see I don't think it is ancient hatreds.
那是个论点。
That was an argument.
‘古代仇恨’实际上是90年代克林顿政府在白宫使用的一个说法，用来为不干预辩护。
Agent hatreds was actually a phrase used in the 1990s in the White House by the Clinton administration to justify not intervening.
他们说，这都是些部落民之间根深蒂固的相互仇恨。
They said, it's all these ancient hatreds of these people who are all basically tribesmen who hate each other.
我
I
导致它？
causes it?
我认为，你看所有这些内战就知道了。
I think it's you know, you look at all these civil wars.
看看20世纪30年代的西班牙，甚至17世纪40年代的英格兰，模式并没有太大不同。
You look at Spain in the nineteen thirties, even if you look at England in the sixteen forties, and the patterns are not so different.
你会看到这种言辞的升级，这种认为对方对国家健康及你所在社区构成致命威胁的信念。
You see this sort of escalation of rhetoric, this belief that the other side pose a mortal threat to the health of the nation and to you and your community.
这其中往往带有某种宗教色彩
There's often a sort of religious
你看，我认为这要归咎于戴克里先
You see, think I think it's down to Diocletian.
戴克里先？
Diocletian?
是的
Yeah.
罗马皇帝
Roman emperor.
戴克里先，这位三世纪末的罗马皇帝实际上将罗马帝国一分为二
Diocletian, the Roman emperor at the end of the third century who effectively It's a big divides the the Roman empire in in two.
于是就有了西半部和东半部
So you have the the Western half and you have the Eastern half.
一边是东正教，一边是天主教
You have orthodox and you have the Catholic.
这条分裂线几乎正好落在
And the fracture line is almost exactly onto
这是南斯拉夫。
the This is Yugoslavia.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
那个，其实
That's a well, that's
基本上我是把这个因素加进去的。
basically I throw that I throw that into the mix.
但你看，我觉得还有另一个你提到的奥斯曼帝国。
But but you see, I I think also another another place where you mentioned the Ottoman Empire.
是的。
Yeah.
当然，过去十年间遭受内战摧残最为严重的国家无疑是叙利亚。
And, of course, the the the country that is most has been most savagely torn to pieces by civil war over over the past decade is Syria.
是的。
Yeah.
伊拉克也同样经历了内战。
And you've had civil war as well in Iraq.
我认为人们普遍意识到，这两个国家某种程度上都是人为拼凑的实体，是从奥斯曼帝国残骸中缝合而成的。
And and I think there's a sense that, again, both countries are kind of artificial entities stitched together out of the the tatters of what had been the Ottoman Empire.
有种观点认为，内战往往孕育于那些曾属于帝国框架的民族国家中——尽管在这些框架下，民族国家的概念本身毫无意义。
And there is a case for saying that civil wars get incubated in nation states that perhaps previously had been part of imperial frameworks in which though, you know, the idea of the nation state made no sense at all.
但这没关系。
But that's okay.
我可以部分接受这个观点。
I can buy that a little bit.
所以你所说的这些人为创造的国家，本质上就带着这些差异因素。
So you've got these sort of what you call artificial creations, whether they're they're sort of baked in with these these differences.
但你看20世纪30年代的西班牙。
But then you look at Spain in the 1930s.
西班牙是一个有着数百年历史的国家。
So Spain is a country with centuries of history.
当然，30年代的西班牙存在分离主义运动，但它仍是一个看似合理、正常的民族国家。
Of course, there are separatist movements in Spain in the '30s, but they Spain was a sort of plausible, reasonable nation state.
即便在没有分离主义的地区，人们依然会杀害自己的邻居。
And and even in areas with no separatism, people still killed their neighbors.
我记得三四年前读过一本对我影响深远的书，保罗·普雷斯顿写的《西班牙大屠杀》。
When I remember reading a book about three or four years ago, been a massive impression on me, called the Spanish Holocaust by Paul Preston.
书中核心论点是：西班牙发生的事——对反对派的非人化以及认为杀害他们是道德行为的信念——与四五年后纳粹主义在中东欧的所作所为并无本质不同。
And basically, the argument to this book was that what happened in Spain, the dehumanization of the opposition and the belief that killing them was a moral thing to do, was not so different from what happened in Central And Eastern Europe, you know, four or five years later under Nazism.
具体案例中，我记得有个村庄，地主和他的朋友把村里所有看不顺眼的人围捕起来，强迫他们进行模拟斗牛表演，让他们在竞技场奔跑，然后将其全部屠杀。
And actually, the individual stories I mean, there's one village I remember where the the landowner and his friends basically round up all the the people in the village who he doesn't like, and they get them to do a sort of mock bullfight with them, get them to run around the stadium, and then they butcher them.
他们杀光了所有人。
They kill them all.
这类事件在一个又一个村庄、一个又一个城镇上演，而那里除了天主教信仰外并无宗教差异。
And this happened this sort of thing happened in village after village, town after town, where there were no religious differences other than the Catholic faith.
仇恨
Hate hatred
会呈指数级增长，不是吗？
kind of grows exponentially, doesn't it?
但可怕之处就在于此，对吧？
That's the terrifying thing, though, isn't it?
看，我们以为自己免疫了。
See, we think we're immune.
这是个有趣的问题，因为我们在英国经历了一段政治分歧极其激烈的时期。
Well, that's the interesting question, because we've lived through a period in Britain where political differences have been very, very highly charged.
而我们正处在一个社交媒体上人们经常称对手为邪恶的时代。
And we are living in a time when on social media, people regularly say that their opponents are evil.
他们纯粹是被恶意中伤的。
They are purely maligned.
他们完全被贪婪或仇恨等情绪所驱使。
They're motivated only by greed or hatred and and all the rest of it.
我的意思是，左派会毫不避讳地指责右派，右派也同样如此。
I mean, the left will say that the right and the right of the left completely happily.
而这些正是冲突的前兆。
And those are the preconditions for conflict.
因为如果你真的认为对手不算真正的人类，那你有什么理由不杀掉他们呢？
Because if you really do believe that your opponents are not properly human, then why wouldn't you kill them?
我猜之所以还没发生这种情况，是因为所有持这种观点的人都忙着在推特上吵架，根本没空走上街头。
I I suppose the reason that it it hasn't is that everyone's too busy everyone who thinks that is too busy on Twitter actually to get out on the streets.
没错。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
不过当然，我们实际上已经在联合王国内部经历过内战——即便不是大不列颠本土，北爱尔兰在七十年代确实曾处于准内战状态。
But, of course, I mean, we have had a civil war within within The United Kingdom, if not if not in in Great Britain, because we've effectively Northern Ireland was, you know, in the in the seventies, there was a scene of of of effectively of civil war.
那基本上就是一场内战。
It basically was a civil war.
所以在七十年代初期，你知道的，贝尔法斯特每年都有数百人丧生。
So in the early nineteen seventies, you know, you have hundreds of people being killed in Belfast every year.
爆炸事件不断发生。
You have bombs going off.
我是说，在1972年左右，基本上贝尔法斯特每天都会发生爆炸。
I mean, at one point, I think, in about 1972, you basically have a bomb going off in Belfast every single day.
所以当你去商店、去上班时，都必须经过军事检查站。
So for the and you're going to the shops, you're going to work, you have to go past military checkpoints.
到处都是士兵。
There are soldiers everywhere.
还有坦克。
There are tanks.
街头还有武装的准军事组织。
There are armed paramilitaries in the streets.
我是说，这几乎是自17世纪以来英国最接近内战的状态。
I mean, that's as close to a civil war as The United Kingdom has been since, what, the Well seventeenth century.
而且，关于这一点既有趣又令人沮丧的是，北爱尔兰的宗派紧张关系根源可以追溯到17世纪蔓延至整个大不列颠和爱尔兰的暴力、仇恨与冲突。
And, I mean, the thing that's that's that's kind of interesting and depressing about that is that what causes the sectarian tensions in Northern Ireland are a legacy of the violence and the hatred and the conflict that spread across the whole of of Great Britain and Ireland in the seventeenth century.
是的。
Yeah.
所以在某种程度上，这是一个持久的遗产。
So in a sense, it's it's it's a kind of it's been an enduring legacy
嗯，我不知道你是否同意这一点，但我总觉得人们总是说——尤其是那些怀着善意的老师们这类人总会说——要是我们了解历史就好了。
of Well, I don't know if you I mean, I don't know if you'll agree with this, but I always the people always say, and particularly sort of very well meaning, sort of teachers, people of that sort of denomination will say, you know, if only we understood history.
要是我们多懂点历史，我们就会对彼此更友善，更和睦。
If only we knew a bit more history, we'd be so kind to each other, and we would be really nice.
没错。
Yeah.
在我们讨论过的每场战争中，尤其是南斯拉夫和北爱尔兰的冲突，，历史在某种程度上都是罪魁祸首。
In every war that we've spoken about, particularly Yugoslavia and Northern Ireland, it is history that is in some part the culprit.
正是因为人们对历史有着如此强烈的认同感。
It's because people have such a strong sense of history.
是的。
Yes.
你知道吗，或许人们对历史了解得少一些反而更好。
I You know, maybe people knew less history.
我认为确实如此。
I think that's true.
我认为当植根于宗教或民族观念的认同感与同样强烈的其他认同感发生碰撞时，冲突就会产生。
And I think I think it's it's it's when identities that are rooted in religion or in an idea of nationhood rub up against equally strongly held ones that that you get it.
我想这就是三十年代西班牙发生的情况——二十世纪特有的意识形态紧张局势与更古老的宗教和民族认同相互交织。
And I suppose that's what that that that that's what happens in in Spain in the thirties is that thrown into that mix is kind of ideological tensions bred specifically of the twentieth century that then kind of fuse with with much older religious and national identities.
但你一开始问的是，是否存在某个时刻能看到警报信号？
But but you were asking at the beginning about whether is there a point at which, you know, you see the alarm bells ring?
你能看到警报信号吗？
Can you see an alarm bell ring?
你能听到警钟响起。
You can hear an alarm bell ring.
是否存在某个时刻，你能听到警钟正在敲响？
Is there a point at which you can hear the alarm bell ringing?
我在想那个时刻是什么，因为通常来说，比如我写过的八十年代的英国，那时的言辞极其激烈。
And I wonder what that point is because often, you know, let's say Britain in the eighties, which I've written about, the rhetoric was incredibly impassioned.
常规情况下，你知道，成千上万的人集体哀悼。
Routinely, you know, tens of thousands of people To the bundle of all grieve.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯，我是说，1984到85年的矿工罢工中，矿工和警察之间发生了近乎武装冲突的激烈对抗。
Well, I mean, you've got the miners' strike in nineteen eighty four, eighty five where you've got miners and police sort of doing having a pitched, albeit sort of not fully armed battle.
但警察举着盾牌列队。
But the racks of the police with the shields.
是的。
Yeah.
那些手持盾牌的警察队伍，他们骑着警马冲向矿工。
The racks of police with the shields, so they're the police horses charging the miners.
你知道，警方随后会说，我们已经没收了这些武器，那些罢工纠察队带来的临时武器。
You know, the police would then say, well, we've confiscated these weapons, the sort of makeshift weapons that pickets have brought.
所以双方显然都有暴力行为，人们会将其称为某种公认的内战。
So both there's obviously violence on both sides, and people would talk about it as a sort of, know, as an acknowledged civil war.
当然，那并非真正内战，因为人们没有互相残杀，也没有大规模死亡。
Now, it wasn't a civil war because people didn't kill each other and there's no great death toll.
但双方的情绪激烈程度并无二致。
But the passions are not so different.
而且显然在当时，警钟已经敲响，因为报纸都在说这是可怕的局面。
And and and, obviously, at that point, the alarm bells were going off because people were you know, the newspapers were saying this is a terrible situation.
知道吗？我们是否正滑向更严重的境地？
You know, are we sliding towards something more serious?
政府必须控制住局面。
The government must get a grip.
政府绝不能像撒切尔夫人被认为所做的那样火上浇油。
The government mustn't inflame things as missus Thatcher was perceived to have done.
而且你...在法国关于阿尔及利亚问题上，阿尔及利亚是否应该...
And and you you probably isn't it true that in France over the issue of Algeria, whether Algeria should Yeah.
要知道它曾是法国本土的一部分，但最终选择放手。
Know which was part of Metropolitan France, but the goal when kind of cut it loose.
这不就是...《豺狼的日子》的基本剧情吗？
Isn't it I mean, that's the kind of the plot of the Day of the Jackal
确实如此。
is It is.
当时将军们试图...阿尔及尔发生过一场政变。
Well, the generals tried to there was a coup in Algiers.
我们说的是哪一年？
What date are we thinking?
大概是1961年，如果我没记错的话，也可能记错了。
Think about 1961, if I remember right, I might be wrong.
当时阿尔及尔发生了一场政变，那里当时还是法国的一部分，是阿尔及利亚的首都。
There was a coup in Algiers, which was then part of France, capital of Algeria.
将军们试图——他们以为能以此为跳板接管法国本土，实质上是要建立一个军事政权来维持阿尔及利亚作为法国的一部分。
The generals tried to they they they thought they would use this as a springboard to take over France itself and to and to basically impose a a military regime that would that would that would keep Algeria part of France.
当时曾有那么一刻，我在想，事态是否可能升级为武装冲突？
And there was this moment when, you know, could it have could it have come to armed conflict?
我是说，最终没有发生，因为将军们失败了。
I mean, it didn't because the generals lost
那么，当时情况到底有多危急？
Well, mean, how close did it come?
是啊。
Yeah.
我认为实际上事态并没有发展到那种程度。
I don't think it did actually come in kind of on level with the
但有趣的是，几年后的1968年——对特定年龄段的人来说，我一提1968年大家就明白——巴黎街头爆发了骚乱，学生们向警察投掷鹅卵石，汽车工厂罢工等等。
But, you know, it's what's interesting is that a few years later in 1968, yeah, everyone of a certain age will know what I mean when I talk about the of 1968, the kind of riots in the streets of Paris and students throwing cobblestones at the police and car factories on strike and all the rest of it.
戴高乐著名地消失了。
And de Gaulle famously disappears.
他飞往西德巴登巴登的法国军事基地，基本上是为了获得军队的忠诚，因为他认为自己必须带着军队回来打一场内战以保住自己的地位。
He flies off to the French military base in Baden Baden in West Germany to basically get the loyalty of the army because he thinks he's gonna have to come back with the army to fight a civil war to retain his position.
就在不久前，是的。
So as recently as that Yeah.
法国曾是一个内战构想
France was a country where the idea of a civil war
是有可能的。
Was possible.
是可以想象的。
Was conceivable.
可以想象。
Conceivable.
你们曾被德国人占领过。
You've been occupied by the Germans.
你们有过维希政权。
You've had Vichy.
你们有过抵抗运动。
You've had the resistance.
你们有过解放。
You've had the liberation.
为什么二十年后就不会有内战呢？
Why wouldn't you have a civil war twenty years later?
是啊。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
嗯，我是说，我想回答你关于是否知道内战何时爆发的问题，这要追溯到很久以前。
Well, I I mean, I suppose, in in answer to your question about do you know when civil wars are going to start, going right back.
没错。
Yeah.
我想最著名的例子就是尤利乌斯·凯撒渡过卢比孔河，你知道的，'渡过卢比孔河'已经成为...是的。
I suppose the most famous example of that would be Julius Caesar crossing the Rubicon, which, you know, crossing the Rubicon has become Yes.
那么这有什么重要意义呢？
So what's the significance of that?
按规定将军是不允许渡过这条河的。
You're not allowed a general is not allowed to cross the river.
所以你推动
So you push
事情...你把事情追溯得足够久远。
things for you you you push things back far enough.
而在古希腊和古罗马城邦中，这种情况最终往往都归结于个人野心。
And, what what happens in kind of the ancient states of of Greece and of Rome is that invariably comes down to personal ambition.
凯撒的情况正是如此。
And that's absolutely the case with Caesar.
是的。
Yeah.
他在高卢征战十年，击败了各种敌人，觉得自己理应受到极大的荣誉和尊重。
Is that, he's been off in Gaul for ten years, beating up asterisks and everyone like that, and feels that, you know, he is entitled to to to to be treated with with great honor and respect.
问题在于他的成就和获取总督职位的方式在罗马树敌太多，有人迫切想通过合法手段摧毁他。
The problem is is that his achievements and the way that he, obtained his governorship has created so many enemies back in Rome that, he has people who are desperate to destroy him, and they want to destroy him legally.
所以一旦凯撒交出兵权成为平民，就会立即面临起诉。
So the moment Caesar lays down his command, he becomes a private citizen, and then he can be prosecuted.
对。
And Right.
从他的敌人角度来看，最好是彻底毁掉他。
Hopefully, you know, from the point of view of his enemies, ruined.
因此凯撒希望无缝从高卢总督过渡到执政官，避免成为平民的中间阶段。
So what Caesar wants is to go seamlessly from being governor of Gaul to becoming consul with no point become being a private citizen.
他的敌人通过策略迫使他面临抉择：要么交出兵权成为平民承担毁灭风险，要么继续掌权并跨越卢比孔河——那是他的行省与意大利的边界。
And his enemies kind of move maneuver him into a situation where he's he has the choice of laying down his command and going back being a private citizen, risking risking ruin or keeping hold of his command and in crossing the Rubicon, which is the boundary between his province and Italy.
但这相当困难。
But that's quite difficult.
就在他这么做的瞬间，实际上就等于宣告了
Moment he does that, then then then effectively he's declaring
但这和我们之前讨论的例子有所不同
But that's different from the examples we've talked about before.
是的
Yeah.
因为这源于那个 是的
Because that's generated by the Yeah.
所以这是一个人的野心所导致的
So it's ambitions of one man Generated
对 是的
by yes.
完全正确
Absolutely.
绝对如此
Absolutely.
当然，除了凯撒之所以能够指挥军队和赢得忠诚，是因为他利用了大众的不满情绪。
Except, of course, that the reason that Caesar is able to, command troops and loyalty is that he's tapping into mass resentment.
好的。
Okay.
所以不满情绪是存在的。
So the resentment was there.
它是潜在的。
It's latent.
是的。
Yes.
但我认为凯撒某种程度上是一个例子，嗯，我想如果没有凯撒，共和国可能也会自行瓦解，但你知道，他绝对是那场内战的推动者。
But I think that Caesar is kind of an example of someone who well, I suppose without Caesar, maybe the republic would fallen apart anyway, but but it's you know, he's definitely the driver of that civil war.
而与我们讨论的更现代的国内战争相比，这种感觉就像是政治体中的一种癌症。
Whereas whereas with the the the more modern civil wars that we're talking about, the sense that this is like a kind of cancer in the body politic.
是啊。
Yeah.
但他们也有推动因素。
But they have drivers too, though.
你看，他们也有推动者。
See, they have drivers too.
这这这要追溯到古老的仇恨问题。
That that that goes back to the ancient hatreds thing.
所以南斯拉夫就不会发生。
So Yugoslavia wouldn't have happened.
我是说，虽然可能存在一些冲突，但如果没有塞尔维亚领导人斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇故意煽动局势，声称塞尔维亚人在这些分离共和国中遭受迫害，情况就不会演变成这样。
I mean, there might have been some conflict, but it wouldn't have been the same if it hadn't been for Slobodan Milosevic, who was the the leader of the Serbs, deliberately inflaming the situation by saying that Serbs are being persecuted in in these sort of breakaway republics.
随后其他一些共和国的领导人也同时煽动自己的民众，声称我们必须拿起武器。
And then the leaders of some of these other republics firing up their own base at the same time and saying, we must take up arms.
我们必须武装我们的警察。
We must arm our police.
我们必须摆脱塞尔维亚人的控制，诸如此类的话。
We must be free of the Serb, blah blah blah blah.
所以，基本上，人们是
So, basically, people are
但这不就是在火上浇油吗？
But isn't that pouring petrol on the place.
我是说，这不就是最近英国政治中发生情况的极度武器化版本吗？
Isn't I mean, isn't that just a very, very, very weaponized version of what's been happening in, say, British politics recently?
哦，问题就在这里，不是吗？
Oh, this is the question, isn't it?
是吗？
Is is it?
因为显然
Because obviously
嗯，我不知道。
Well, I don't know.
我的意思是，你才是现代历史学家。
I mean, you're the modern historian.
告诉我。
Tell me.
嗯，我在想的是那种煽动
Well, I mean, what I was thinking about was that firing
煽动你的基本盘。
up the firing of your base.
这个人物煽动他的基本盘，没错。
The figure of fires up his base Yeah.
然后一切都内爆，最终导致内战。
And it all implodes and then results in civil war.
我是说
I mean
这有什么不同
How is that different
这就是那个模式。
from the That that's the model.
是啊。
Yeah.
这与其他政客有何不同？
How is that different from any other politician?
我是说，你说得对。
I mean, you're right.
实际上现在可以说，一个更令人不安的问题是：民主政治本身是否就是一种反常现象？
That actually now, arguably, a more sort of unsettling question is, you know, is democratic politics itself a kind of aberration?
一场失败的实验。
A failed experiment.
不。
No.
这是否是某种内战升华后的版本？
Is it a sort of sublimated version of a civil war?
它内部是否蕴含着内战的种子？
And does it have the germ of civil war in it?
换句话说，如果有两个政党在议会厅里互相咆哮，指责对方背叛国家、自私贪婪。
So, other words, if you have two parties screaming at each other across a chamber, and they say to each other, you are betraying the nation, You are own you are greedy.
你们只关心自己。
You are only interested in yourselves.
你们正在失败。
You are you are failing.
人们正因为你们而死去。
People are dying because of you.
我的意思是，我们现在经常听到这种言论。
I mean, we hear this now all the time.
所以在英国语境下，关键不在于我们有'女王陛下忠诚的反对党'这个概念。
So in so so so in in the British context, it it isn't the fact that we have the idea of her majesty's loyal opposition.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为你在这点上说得对。
I think you're right about that.
我原以为
Is it I thought that
他们是
they are.
这不是内战留下的遗产吗？
Is that not a legacy of of the civil wars?
因为你确实需要
Because you need exactly.
因为你需要反对派
Because you need the opposition.
因为支持者
Because the pros you
你知道，我指的不只是克伦威尔护国时期之前的内战
know, I mean, it's not just it's not just the the civil wars that precede the Cromwellian protectorate.
我是说，战争、暴力和动乱在不列颠和爱尔兰持续了数十年
I mean, wars, violence, unrest persist throughout Britain and Ireland for decades to come.
我是说，真的，可以说一直到卡洛登战役都是如此。
I mean, really, right right the way up to Culloden, I suppose you could say.
而这种经历，这种对政治体系中某些派系拒绝承认其反对者合法地位可能导致后果的理解，成为了深深烙在英格兰和苏格兰社会结构上的一课。
And the the the experience of that, the understanding of where factions within the body politic that refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of those who are opposing them can lead is a lesson that kind of burns itself into the fabric of of of England and Scotland.
我认为你是对的。
I think you're right.
而且我认为你看，根据我的理论——我们当时在A-level阶段学习过英国内战。
And I think what happened you see, my theory, I was always we did the English Civil War a level.
我一直着迷于一个事实：我们的课程大概只讲到查理二世时期，在光荣革命后就基本结束了。
And I was always fascinated by the fact that we stopped, I think, maybe We went into Charles II, and then we sort of stopped after the Doris revolution, I think.
所以我们大致学习了从詹姆斯一世到奥兰治威廉的时期。
So, we sort of did from James I to William of Orange.
而我始终好奇的是：接下来发生了什么？
And I was always interested, what happened next?
因为这些人长期以来一直在互相残杀。
Because all these guys have been killing each other all this time.
为什么他们突然开始只是去咖啡馆、谈论南海泡沫事件、阅读《格列佛游记》？
And why do they suddenly start just going to coffee houses and talking about the South Sea Bubble and reading Gulliver's Travels?
为什么他们不再互相争斗了？
Why aren't they still fighting each other?
因为那些问题依然存在。
Because the issues are still there.
显然，发生的情况是战争带来了彻底的创伤，人们基本上不再诉诸暴力，在某种程度上，英国政治变得略微去武器化。
And clearly, what happened was that the wars have been utterly traumatic, and that people basically stopped resorting to violence as that in a way, British politics became slightly more de weaponized.
是的。
Yeah.
就在1642年英国内战爆发前，查理一世的首席大臣斯特拉福德伯爵在议会通过一项法案后被处决。
So, just before the English Civil War broke out in 1642, Charles I's chief minister, the Earl of Stratford, had been executed after an act passed by parliament.
你知道，他基本上是因为执行主人的命令而被定罪。
You know, he was condemned for basically doing his master's bidding.
而处决、弹劾这些手段在某种程度上曾是合理的政治工具。
And and and execution impeachment's execution were were kind of political reasonable political tools.
显然后来有个阶段人们不再处决政敌了
There's obviously a point later on where you just stop executing your opponents.
你知道，2010年没人处决戈登·布朗，2015年也没人处决大卫·卡梅伦
You know, no one executed Gordon Brown in 2010 or David Cameron in in 2015.
我是说，他们甚至都没被流放
I mean, they weren't even exiled.
有个
There was a
卡梅伦某种程度上算是被流放
point Cameron was kind of exiled
到他的到他的
to his to his
小屋里了，对吧？
shed, wasn't he?
他说得很对
He's quite right.
那可是个豪华小屋。
He's posh shed.
曾经是。
He was.
他现在住的那种
He's living in kind
是啊。
of Yeah.
但比起被砍头，你肯定更愿意被流放到豪华小屋。
But you'd rather be exiled to a posh shed than than have
被砍头。
you been chopped off.
没错。
Yes.
我是说，我也不知道。
I mean, I don't know.
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我是说，不知道戴维·卡梅伦的棚屋里生活是怎样的。
I mean, don't know what life's like in David Cameron's shed.
其实我住得离戴维·卡梅伦并不远，所以很容易就能搞清楚。
I mean, I don't actually live very far away from David Cameron, so I could easily find out.
嗯，确实。
Well, yes.
下次你就去看看吧。
Go and do that next time.
我们可以回来汇报情况。
We can report back.
今天真是懒得出奇。
Extraordinary laziness today.
这个想法...我是说，我想这就是关于民主党人和共和党人如何看待民主的民意调查所反映的——一个正常运作的民主制度取决于极端派能否承认对方的合法性
The it's it's it's the idea I mean, and I suppose that's what say say one's happening about that idea of of of the poll of Democrats and Republicans thinking about is is that a functioning democracy depends on extremes acknowledging the legitimacy of of
这就是多元主义，对吧？
It's pluralism, isn't it?
是的。
Yeah.
多元主义。
Pluralism.
除非具备这一点，否则你实际上就没有一个正常运转的民主制度。
And unless you have that, then you don't really have a functioning democracy.
但在政治史上，尤其是现代政治史上，确实存在过这种多元主义理念受到质疑的时期。
But there were times, politically, certainly in modern political history, where that pluralism phrase, I think.
比如我们讨论过的80年代，在那个时期某种程度上双方都否认对方的合法性。
So if you say, we talked about the '80s, if you go to the '80s, there was a point there where, to some extent, both sides denied the others' legitimacy.
撒切尔夫人的一个标志性特质就是，她不仅说社会主义者是错误的。
One of Margaret Thatcher's sort of defining qualities was that she basically didn't say socialists are wrong.
她说他们是邪恶的。
She said they are evil.
他们是罪恶的力量。
They are their forces of wickedness.
同样地，她的对手评价她时，也不仅仅说她错了。
And equally, her opponent said of her, she's not just wrong.
她不仅推行了错误的政策。
She's not pursuing just wrong policies.
她本质上就是个邪恶的人。
She is a genuine evil person.
是的。
Yes.
但但但但撒切尔或金诺克从未否认过对方有权站在下议院发言，你知道
But but but but at no point do De Thatcher or Kinuk deny the right of the other one to stand up in the house of commons and, you know
然后他们开始进口武器来分配最佳资源
Then they start importing arms to distribute the best
政党会议。
party conference.
但是，你知道，首相质询时间，撒切尔站在那里，金诺克作为合法当选的首相对她提出质询
But, you know, prime minister's question time, Thatcher stands there and Kinuk questions her as the duly elected prime
部长。
minister.
是的。
Yeah.
你是
You're
对的。
right.
同样地，撒切尔也会接受金诺克作为工党正式选举产生的领导人的质询。
And and and likewise, Thatcher takes questions from Kinnock as the duly elected leader of of the Labour Party.
这种裂痕在工党极左翼已经显现——那里有人否认资产阶级民主的合法性，而在右翼则有人幻想政变和军事接管。
And the the the kind of the the the fraying is is there on on the the the kind of the hard left of of Labour where there are are people who deny the legitimacy of of bourgeois democracy, and on the right where there are people who kind of fantasize about coups and and and military takeovers.
只要这两个极端势力被控制在边缘地带，民主制度就能正常运转。一旦他们开始
And that that that's always as long as they that those two extremes are kept on the extremes, then you have a functioning democracy once they start kind of
但我们现在的时代更危险了，不是吗？
But we're in a more dangerous time now, aren't we?
因为民主的主流在我们有生之年比以往任何时候都更受质疑。
Because the sort of the mainstream of democracy is more discredited than it ever has been in our lifetimes.
我是说，年轻人对民主的信任度更低，尤其是那些最有可能引发内战的人群，因为他们年轻、活跃，而且没有房贷压力。
I mean, trust in democracy is lower among young people, particularly with the most the people always most likely to drive a civil war because they're young and they're kind of active and then they don't have a mortgage.
嗯，而且众所周知，即使不是内战，大规模社会动荡的推动因素之一就是毕业生找不到工作。
Well, and also, mean, famously, one of the drivers of, if not civil wars, then then then mass civil unrest is graduates who don't get jobs.
没错。
Yes.
这正是我们正在走向的局面。
Which is precisely where we're heading.
而且这次休息后我们还会面临更多的社会动荡。
And we'll have further civil unrest after this break.
你好。
Hello.
我是汉娜·弗莱教授。
I'm professor Hannah Fry.
我是Michael Stevens，Vsauce的创始人。
And I'm Michael Stevens, creator of Vsauce.
我们想不请自来地加入你们一会儿。
We thought we would join you for a moment completely uninvited.
我们不会待太久，当然除非你们想让我们留下。
We are not gonna stay too long unless you want us to, of course.
我们是来介绍我们的全新节目《剩下的都是科学》。
We're here to tell you about our brand new show, The Rest is Science.
每期节目都会从一个看似熟悉的话题开始，然后我们会层层剖析，直到你完全认不出它原来的样子。
Every episode is gonna start with something that feels initially familiar, and then we're gonna unpick it and tear it apart until you no longer recognize it at all.
你知道香蕉味为什么尝起来不像香蕉吗？
You know how banana flavor doesn't taste like bananas?
是啊。
Yeah.
这是怎么回事？
What is that about?
所以它应该是模仿一种在香蕉末日中灭绝的古老香蕉品种的味道。
So it is supposed to taste like an old species of banana that was wiped out in a banana apocalypse.
而现在你只能在亿万富翁花园的植物收藏中找到它了。
And now you will only find it in botanical collections in the gardens of billionaires.
哇。
Wow.
香蕉糖果其实是早已灭绝的香蕉的幽灵。
Banana candy is actually the ghost of a long extinct banana.
如果你喜欢刨根问底，想得更深入或更奇怪些
So if you like scratching the surface, thinking a little bit deeper Or weirder.
是的
Yes.
绝对也包括这个
Definitely that too.
每周二和周四，你可以在任何收听播客的平台加入我和迈克尔的行列
You can join Michael and I every Tuesday and Thursday wherever you get your podcasts.
让我们回到美国，这是我们开始的地方。
Let's go back to America, which is where we started.
我认为与英国相比，令人担忧的是武器的数量。
I think what's worrying about that as opposed to Britain is the is the number of weapons.
我的意思是，那是发动内战所需的条件。
Mean, that's what you need to have a civil war.
基本上，英国内战爆发是因为双方都想控制武器，都想掌控军队——国王和议会都想。
So basically, the English Civil War starts because both sides want to get their hands on weapons, and they want to get their hands on the army, the king and parliament.
在美国...我是说在北爱尔兰，他们能互相残杀是因为他们有武器。
In The US, you I mean, in Northern Ireland, they could kill each other because they had weapons.
他们有进口枪支。
They had imported guns.
而在美国，他们本来就拥有枪支。
In The US, they have guns already.
我们都看过那些画面——黑命贵抗议期间，人们端着半自动步枪站在自家门廊上。
I mean, we've all seen the footage of people during the Black Lives Matter protests standing on their front doorsteps with their semi automatic rifles.
你不觉得这很令人担忧吗？
Don't you find that worrying?
是啊。
Yeah.
总的来说，我觉得人们拥有大量枪支的想法很令人担忧，但那是因为我是个非常英国式的胆小鬼。
I generally find the idea of people having lots of guns worrying, but that's that's because I'm a a very English wuss.
没错。
Yeah.
对此有点紧张。
Slightly nervous about that.
而且你还有那种
And you've got sort
唐纳德·特朗普，你知道的，他正在尽其所能在大选结果出炉前就试图否定其合法性。
of Donald Trump, you know, doing his best to delegitimize the election result before it happens as well.
那种感觉...是啊。
That sense of Yeah.
所以这又是一个'是啊'。
So that's another yeah.
所以这又是一个'是的'。
So that's another yes.
所以那那那就是那那那就是'是啊'。
So that that that is that is that yeah.
所以所以所以，本质上你必须尊重程序的合法性。
So so so, essentially, you have to respect the legitimacy of the process.
选举过程中的程序。
Elections in the process.
而而而如果而而当你不这样做时，我想那就是风险所在。
And and and if and and when you don't, that's that's when the risk is, I guess.
你认为呢？我是说，我知道你对诸如英国未来统一这类问题有强烈看法。
And do you think I mean, I know you have strong views about things like The United future of The United Kingdom.
你认为在英国本土有可能发生某种内战吗？比如说，如果某部分试图独立的话？
Do you think it's ever plausible you could have a kind of civil war in The UK itself, for example, if part of it tried to break away?
我不。
I no.
我无法想象如果苏格兰人民意愿是脱离英国的话。
I I can't imagine that if it's the will of the Scottish people to leave The UK Yeah.
英国政府不会反对这一点。
That that the UK government would would oppose that.
诺森伯兰的人民不会拿起武器强迫他们的邻居
People of Northumberland won't take up arms to compel their neighbors to
不。
No.
我是说，你知道，英格兰和苏格兰合并是有原因的，那就是钱。
I mean, I I I am you know, there's a reason why the why England and Scotland joined, which was that Money.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯，钱，但你也知道，对苏格兰来说是钱，对英格兰来说则是想要保护北部边境。
Well, money, but also, you know, was it was money for the Scots, it was a desire to to to kind of protect the northern frontier for the English.
观察那些影响联合王国形成的因素是否会重现将会很有趣。
And it'd be interesting to see whether, you know, the the factors that that that that influenced the the joining of the The United Kingdom, whether they would recur if The UK Yeah.
分崩离析。
Came apart.
我是说，我也不确定。
I mean, I I don't know.
但我不会太担心这个问题。
But I I I wouldn't worry about that so much.
我认为当我们思考17世纪英国内战或美国内战时，其中一个关键点是
I I mean, I think I think one of one of the things that that when you think about, say, the the civil wars in in in Britain in the seventeenth century or or indeed the American civil war is that
这个
the
你对战争起因的理解必然会随时间演变，甚至需要事后重新审视。
your sense of of why a war is being fought must evolve over time and indeed retrospectively.
以美国内战为例，最初不这么认为，但现在我们普遍认为其核心是奴隶制问题。
So so with the Americans who were being the classic example, but now we think of it as having been fought about slavery.
但从某种意义上说，那并不是
But but there's a sense in which that wasn't
我不知道。
I don't know.
它一直都很残酷，不是吗？
It was always brutal, wasn't it?
我不确定是否
I don't I don't know if
我是说，它非常
I mean, it was very
你是想说这与南方各州的分离权有关？
You're gonna say it was about the rights of secession of the Southern states?
嗯，我...我认为从根本上说，是与奴隶制有关。
Well, I I I think I mean, I think in its fundamentals, was about slavery.
是的。
Yeah.
但我在想，当时参战的人们是否认为这场战争与奴隶制有关。
But I'm wondering whether it was seen as having been about slavery by people who were fighting at the time.
你知道，那种想法持续了多久，那种...我认为...
How long you know, what what was that a a kind of idea that it it that kind of I think
在某些...超过...
among some of over
战斗的过程中？
the process of fighting?
同样地，在英国内战中，人们对战争起因的理解，我猜在战争初期也是大不相同的。
And likewise, in the in the in the civil war in in in Britain, the understanding of what people were fighting about, I would guess, was pretty different at the beginning of the wars.
确实如此。
It was.
你知道吗？
You know?
是的。
Yeah.
因为在最初，我认为没有人是为了——显然，英国内战就是一个绝佳的例子，其意义在不断演变。
Because at the beginning, I don't think anyone was fight I mean, obviously, the civil wars the English civil war is a great example where the the meaning changes.
所以战争初期，没有人是为了废除国王而战。
So at the beginning, nobody is fighting to get rid of the king.
是的。
Yeah.
当然，更没有人是为了建立共和国而战。
And certainly, nobody is fighting for a republic.
但战争结束时，人们认为查理·斯图亚特必须死，因为他是个嗜血之徒。
But at the end of the war, people didn't think that Charles Stewart because they Charles Stewart is a man of blood.
没错。
Yeah.
他必须被处决。
And he has to be killed.
军队中还有真正的共和主义者，他们在接下来的十年里，始终在抵制任何在他们看来是对激进愿景的倒退行为——这种愿景已在士兵中扎根。
And there are proper Republicans in the army who then, for the next ten years, are fighting any attempt to what they see as sort of backtrack on the radical vision that has taken root among the soldiers.
所以我认为这是内战区别于其他战争时经常发生的情况之一，就是会产生非常深远的后果。
So I think one of that that's one of the things that often happens in a civil war as opposed to another war, I think, is that you have a a very engaged consequences.
是的。
Yeah.
而且基层士兵会非常投入，因为他们是在本土作战，为家园而战，对抗自己的邻居。
And you have a very engaged kind of rank and file because they're fighting on home soil, they're fighting for hearth and home, they're fighting against their neighbors.
这一切的意义都更加重大。
It all just means much more.
没错。
Yeah.
然后随着时间的推移他们逐渐变得激进。
And then they become radicalized over time.
我认为从这个角度来说，可以说英国这十年来经历的紧张局势也是如此，发生了类似的事情，发生了人们未曾预料到的情况，或许脱欧公投释放了这些。
And I think that that that to that extent, you could you could say that that, say, the the tensions that have afflicted Britain over this decade, kind of the same thing has happened, that things have happened that people would not have anticipated, That that perhaps the Brexit vote has unleashed
嗯，我认为是危机中的紧张关系。
Well, I think and tension in crisis.
他们？
They?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
但这是非武器化的
But it was a deweaponized
没错。
Yeah.
谢天谢地。
Thankfully.
冲突。
Conflict.
但你多少能看出内战在意识形态上是会演变的。
But but but you can kind of see that that civil wars mutate ideologically.
是的。
Yeah.
确实如此。
They do.
但汤姆，我认为关于内战令人不安的一点在于，你看，英国脱欧就是个很好的例子。
But also, I think, Tom, one one of the disturbing things about them is that, you know, Brexit is a good example, actually.
因为在这个问题上，虽然人人都有看法，但多数人可能并不持极端强烈的立场，大部分激烈言论其实来自相对少数群体。
Because there you have an issue that, everybody has an opinion, but most people probably don't have an intensely strong opinion, that a lot of the shouting is done by a relative minority.
但内战中也存在同样现象。
But that's true in civil wars too.
就像如果你读过1990年代南斯拉夫内战，或者1930年代西班牙内战亲历者的采访，很大比例的人会说：其实我并不真的想要战争。
Most of the people I mean, if you ever read interviews of people in the Yugoslavian civil war in the 1990s, or indeed in Spain in the 1930s, a large proportion of would say, actually, I wasn't really I didn't want a war.
我本来并不太在意。
I wasn't really that bothered.
是我的那些一贯热衷政治的邻居推动了这一切，而我们其他人只是被卷入了其中。
It was my neighbors who were had always been incredibly political who drove this, and the rest of us were sort of swept up in it.
那正是可怕之处。
And that was the scary thing.
我是说，在英国内战中，我被认为是俱乐部成员那一派的。
I mean, I in the English Civil War, I was identified with the club men.
哦，是啊。
Oh, yeah.
他们...那么给我们讲讲俱乐部成员吧。
They they So tell us about the club men.
呃，抱歉。
Well, I'm sorry.
俱乐部成员...因为我在威尔特郡长大，而俱乐部成员在威尔特郡势力很大。
The club men the the the because I I grew up in Wiltshire, and the club men were were very strong in Wiltshire.
他们本质上是不想为任何一方作战的人。
They were they were people who basically didn't want to fight on either side.
所以他们两边都打？
So they fight both?
所以他们拿着棍棒，因此得名，然后撤退到森林里生活。
So they they they would get clubs, hence their name, and they would go and retreat and live in a forest.
所以在英国脱欧争议最激烈的时候，我就在想，说实话我有点想采取俱乐部模式，从所有辩论中抽身而退
So and so I was I was kind of thinking, you know, in the the heat of the the the Brexit disagreement, thinking I quite frankly be in a club mode just retreating from from all the debate going living
置身于战争中。
in a war.
住在树林里。
In a wood.
我在想，究竟需要什么条件才会在现代西方自由民主国家引发一场真正的内战？
And kind of wondering, well, you know, what would it what would it take to to precipitate an actual civil war in a modern Western liberal democracy?
你知道，生活在西方自由民主国家的定义是否意味着它不可能发生这种情况？
You know, is is it the definition of living in a Western liberal democracy that it can't go?
你是说，它不可能回到那种战争状态？
You know, it can't go back to that war?
或者说，当然，这种情况是有可能发生的。
Or or well, so how how Of course, can happen.
那么这会如何运作呢？
So how would it work?
嗯，我想它会先经历一个阶段，比如说十年，可能更久，期间激情不断增长，政治化日益加剧。
Well, I suppose it would be preceded by a period, let's say, ten years, possibly longer, of growing passion, intense politicization.
这就是为什么我认为冷漠被严重低估了。
This is why I think apathy is so underrated.
是的。
Yes.
要知道，如果你想找一个所有人都关心政治、谈论政治的地方——这正是政治狂热分子所向往的——那地方就是1934年的西班牙。
Because the more know, if you ever want to find somewhere where everyone cares about politics, they're talking about politics, you know, which is what sort of politicized people want, That place is Spain, 1934.
可别变成那样。
Don't want be that.
对政治漠不关心的国度是幸福的。
Happy the land that takes no interest in politics.
没错。
Right.
确实如此。
Exactly.
所以我认为公众已经被高度政治化了。
So I think you have an intensely politicized public.
年轻人是最有可能参与斗争的群体。
You have young people, so the people who are most likely to fight.
基本上，我指的是那些流落街头、可能没有工作的年轻人。
Basically, I have young people who are on the streets, who maybe don't have jobs.
是啊。
Yeah.
他们觉得...他们得不到工作，他们的教育...他们
Who and who feel that they're they're they're they are not getting the jobs, that their education They've
已经一无所有了。
got nothing to lose.
他们已经一无所有了。
They've got nothing to lose.
我认为你感受到了一种非人化或合法性的丧失。
I think you have a sense of of of sort of dehumanization or delegitimization.
所以你的对手不仅仅是错误的。
So your opponents are not just wrong.
他们是邪恶的。
They're evil.
而且这个过程本身毫无价值且存在缺陷，所以坚持它毫无意义。
And the process itself is worthless and flawed, so there's no point in persisting with it.
我是说，我认为特朗普一直在试图论证他不会离开的方式。
I mean, I think there is the the the the way that Trump has been trying to argue that, you know, he's not gonna leave.
那种...那种...我是说，那是一种重大举措，但在左派中也同样存在。
That that that that that I mean, that's a kind of major step, but it's kind of there on, you know, on the on on the left as well.
我是说，你现在就得接受现实了。
I mean, you've gotta marry in it right now.
因为...因为问题是，如果特朗普赢了，人们会接受这个结果吗？
Because because the question, you know, if Trump wins, would would would people repost to him accept it?
我是说，我也不能怎样？
Mean, I can't how much do either?
所以，到底在什么时候
So so At what point do
你会觉得加州政府干脆会说'去他的'？
you feel like a government in California do you just say, sod it?
你知道的，我们退出。
You know, we're off.
我们会成功的。
We'll succeed.
是啊。
Yeah.
但我觉得另一个问题是，要发动战争，你必须有能力杀人。
I mean but I think the other the other issue is, you know, to have a war, you have to have the you have to be able to kill people.
所以，你必须有能获取武器的准军事组织——他们从外部获得支持，即某些外国势力的干预，或者你拥有一支高度政治化的军队。
So, you either have to have paramilitaries with access to weapons, so they're getting there from outside, so the intervention of some foreign powers, or you have a very politicized military.
换句话说，军队会介入并站在某一方作战，尽管其中某些部队可能
So, in other words, the army will step in and will fight on one side, although elements of it that might fight on
但我必须说，所有这些条件虽然显而易见，但想到它们都不太可能发生，我还是感到宽慰。
But I I have to say that I mean, all of these conditions are clearly but I'm relieved to think that they are all pretty unlikely.
那么，
So Well,
其中有些确实...比如在英国，我认为最不可能发生的就是军方干预。
some of them are I mean, I think in Britain, for example, the one that is the least likely is actually probably the military.
而且，你知道，七十年代就曾有过这种传言。
And and that, you know, in the seventies, there was talk of this happening.
是的。
Yes.
蒙巴顿就是。
Mountbatten was.
蒙巴顿和他的政变。
Mountbatten and his coup.
据说蒙巴顿勋爵要领导一场政变
So Lord Mountbatten supposedly was gonna lead a coup to
那是真的吗？
Was that true?
建立一个无政府
Install a government of no.
那不是真的
It wasn't true.
但它
But it
在《王冠》剧里演过
was in the crown.
我当时就觉得，肯定是真的
I was like, must be true.
肯定是真的
Must be true.
最著名的故事是关于塞西尔·哈姆斯沃思·金的，他当时基本上是《每日镜报》的老板，他召见了蒙巴顿。
So the most famous story is that Cecil Harmsworth King, who was basically the boss of the Daily Mirror, he summoned Mountbatten.
他在办公桌里保存着这个——那是六十年代末的事了。
He used to keep in his desk this is the late sixties.
他习惯在办公桌里放一份他成为紧急首相时的内阁名单，这对一家报纸来说很不寻常。
He used to keep in his desk a list of his cabinet when he became emergency prime minister, which is an unusual thing for a newspaper.
我是说，也许并不奇怪。
I mean, maybe it's not.
也许所有报纸都这样——我相信我们都能想到一些报纸编辑，他们办公桌里可能确实放着他们掌权时的政府名单。
Maybe all newspapers do I'm sure we can all think of newspaper editors who probably do have lists in their desks of their government when they assume supreme power.
总之，塞西尔·金就有这样一份名单。
But anyway, Cecil King had this list.
蒙巴顿也在名单上，他基本上安排了一次与蒙巴顿的午餐，在午餐上说：'事情是这样的，我希望你接管独裁政权，《每日镜报》会支持你。'
And Matt Baton was on it, and he basically arranged a lunch with Matt Baton, in which he said, here's the story, I want you to take over as dictator and the Daily Mirror will support you.
蒙巴顿当时有点——他不知道该怎么理解这件事。
And Matt Baton sort of was- he didn't know what to make of it.
他基本上没当回事。
He basically didn't make anything of it.
据说他后来去找王太后说：'我刚和您的一位朋友进行了场极其离奇的谈话'，之后这事就再没被提起过。
I think he supposedly, he went back to the queen mother and said, I've just had the most extraordinary conversation with a friend of yours, and it was never really mentioned again.
但当《镜报》发现这事后，他们直接开除了塞西尔·金
But when the Mirror got found out about it, they basically booted out Cecil King
很合理。
Fair enough.
的董事长职务。
As their chairman.
我觉得如果...如果你们董事长在策划内战
I think if if your chairman is plotting civil war
打仗，我...我
fighting, I think I I
认为这处理相当合理。
think that's fairly reasonable.
嗯，这确实很冒险。
Well, it was risky.
我是说，如果成功了，他们可能都会被处决，或者被流放到马恩岛之类的。
I mean, if it succeeded, they would all have been for the chop, presumably, or maybe exiled the Isle Of Man or something.
但不管怎样，70年代有传言说这事会在桑赫斯特军校之类的地方被讨论。
But anyway, there there were stories that in the '70s, this would be discussed at Sandhurst and whatnot.
如果人们来找我们说需要干预时该怎么办？
What will happen if people come to us and they say, we need to step in.
工会正在掌权，我们需要逮捕所有工会大会和工党的领导人什么的。
The trade unions are taking power, and we need to arrest all the leaders of the TUC and the Labour Party or something.
据我所知，普遍态度是觉得这太荒谬了。
And generally, as far as I understand, the mood was this is ridiculous.
我们绝不会参与这种事。
We wouldn't have anything to do with it.
我认为英国相对幸运的是拥有一个政治色彩淡薄的军队，很难想象他们会参与这种事。
And I think Britain is in a relatively fortunate position of having a relatively unpoliticized military that's hard to imagine taking part.
但美国的情况略有不同。
But The United States is slightly different.
我的意思是，在美国，总统是军队总司令。
I mean, if you've there, you've got the the president is the commander in chief.
总统给你下达命令。
The president gives you an order.
你必须服从。
You have to follow it.
是的。
Yeah.
否则你就破坏了指挥链。
Or you're breaking, you know, the chain of command.
所以想象一下美国的选举——我是说，在美国，很多这些条件已经具备了，不是吗？
So, imagine that the election in The US I mean, in The US, a lot of those conditions have been met, haven't they?
他们已经存在对选举程序合法性的质疑。
They have there is the delegitimizing of the process.
街头已经发生了暴力事件。
There is already violence on the streets.
有大量的枪支。
There are a lot of guns.
有些人真心认为他们的对手是邪恶的，想要对付他们，会偷走他们所有的钱或杀害他们的孩子，诸如此类的事情。
There are people who genuinely believe that their opponents are evil and are out to get them and are gonna steal all their money or kill their kids or all this kind of business.
想象一下选举陷入僵局的情况。
Imagine a situation which was an electoral deadlock.
作为三军统帅的总统拒绝下台，直接向军队下达命令。
The president, as commander in chief, refuses to leave, gives the army a direct order.
你知道，州长们会给他们的警察部队下达不同的命令。
You know, governors give their their police forces different orders.
多米尼克，我以为我们会以这种调调结束，因为这会是一种令人愉快的
Dominic, I I thought that we'd end on this note because it would be a kind of cheery
调调，因为我
note because I in
没想到你会选择这个
no way thought that you'd go for
我们甚至还没谈到法国的情况
We haven't even went into France yet.
全面内战
Full civil war.
不过，你看，我们还是以积极的调调结束吧
But but it's still you know, let's let's end on a positive note.
可能性非常低
Very unlikely.
不是吗？
Isn't it?
那到底是什么呢？
What is it, though?
嗯，是的
Well, yes.
所以我不知道。
So I don't know.
我是说，多久...我是说我想...我们俩都有什么？
I mean, how long how I mean I think I think I we've both got what?
还剩下多少年？
How many years left?
让我们...乐观一点说。
Let's say let's be optimistic.
我们还有三四十年的时间，直到我们被拖进天空中的伟大档案馆。
We've got thirty, forty years left, while we're still until we're dragged off to the great archive in the sky.
在这段时间里，我们是否有可能看到某种秩序的崩溃，在工业化...在垂直的发达国家中发生某种暴力事件？
In that time, is it plausible that we will see some some sort of breakdown of order, some kind of violence in an in an industrialized, as it in a vertical, a developed country?
我原本这么认为，但我不认为它会...
I thought so, but I wouldn't have thought that It will.
嗯，我...
Well, I
我也不会想到
I wouldn't have thought
那会是一种传统的内战形式。
that it would be a kind of traditional civil war.
我认为这很可能是由气候紧急状况引发的。
I think it it it's it's likely to be prompted by climate emergency.
你看，内战一直是人类历史的常态。
See, think civil wars have been a constant of human history.
嗯，是的。
And Well, yes.
是的。
Yes.
我听到你那些悲观的预言了。
I'm hearing I'm hearing your gloomy spanglery.
这与传统战争中的情况不同。
Difference in there in conventional wars.
对吧？
Right?
是不是因为风险太高，常规战争变得越来越不可能发生？
Is that a conventional war becomes less and less likely because the stakes are so high.
科技如此
Technology is so
是的。
So yes.
好的。
Okay.
所以但是
So But
我是说，你不会对别人投核弹，但用菜刀屠杀邻居这种事
a civil war, I mean, you're not gonna drop a nuclear bomb on somebody, but butchering your neighbor with a kitchen knife, I mean, that's
完全正常。
perfectly normal.
你知道，我想我能预见的是类似于北爱尔兰的情况。
You know, I I suppose what I can see is is something akin to Northern Ireland.
是啊。
Yeah.
所以就是北爱尔兰化。
So Ulsterization.
就是，对。
Just Yeah.
永远不会是公开的内战，而只是爆炸事件。
Never kind of a open civil war, but just bombings.
没错。
Yeah.
卢森堡街头的主权争夺。
Paramountries on the streets of Luxembourg.
嗯，说到这个，我想我们已经无路可走了。
Well, what I think on that note, I I I think we have no nowhere to go after that.
那么我们就此打住吧，我觉得这可不是个愉快的对话。
So we will draw a line on that, which I think it's not been a cheery conversation.
确实不是。
No.
我想我们应该让听众在推特上推荐他们自己的最爱。
I think I think this should should tweet us suggest their own favorite.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
发推文告诉我们为什么多米尼克是错的。
Tweet us and and and and say why Dominic's wrong.
让我开心点。
Cheer me up.
带着这样忧郁的基调，我们要和大家说再见了
I that somber note, we will bid you
祝您度过愉快的一天。
Have a lovely day.
向您道别。
Bid you farewell.
感谢收听《历史的余韵》。
Thanks for listening to the Rest is History'.
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网址是restishistorypod.com。
That's restishistorypod.com.
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