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如果你想从节目中获得更多内容，就加入‘余下皆历史’俱乐部吧。
If you want more from the show, join the rest is history club.
随着圣诞节的临近，你还可以为你生活中的历史爱好者赠送一年的会员资格。
And with Christmas coming, you can also gift a whole year of access to the history lover in your life.
只需访问restishistory.com并点击礼物选项。
Just head to the rest ishistory.com and click gifts.
大家好，欢迎收听‘余下皆历史’节目。
Hello, and welcome to the rest is history.
我很自豪地说，这是一个拒绝被形式束缚的播客。
This, I'm proud to say, is the podcast that refuses to be bound by format.
有时我们喜欢探讨一些宏大的问题。
Sometimes we like to ask the big questions.
比如，历史给我们带来了哪些教训？
What are the lessons of history, for instance?
有时我们则喜欢聚焦于特定年份，比如1981年发生的非凡事件。
And sometimes we like to narrow our focus to a single year, the extraordinary events of 1981.
而有时我们想带你回到紧张不安的青春期，等待翻开历史考卷的那一刻——今天正是这样的日子。
And sometimes we want to take you back to your nervous teens waiting to turn over your history exam paper and today is just such a day.
这个问题几十年来每年六月都会被提出并解答。
Our question has been asked and answered every June for decades.
第一次世界大战的起因是什么？
What are the causes of the First World War?
多米尼克·桑德布鲁克与我们同在，不得不说，多米尼克，和你聊过这个话题，你对此有些激进的观点。
Dominic Sandbrook is with us and fair to say, Dominic, talked to you about this, that you have some radical views on the subject.
异端观点。
Heretical views.
是的。
Yes.
我想，'标新立异'这个词总是用在你身上。
Contrarian, I think, is the word that's always applied to you.
但在讨论你那些标新立异的观点之前，为了我这个从没学过一战A-level课程的人，能否请你简单梳理一下，给我们讲讲背景故事？
But before we get onto those contrarian views of yours, could you for the benefit of me, who never actually did the first world war for for a level, could you just run down, Give us a story.
世界是如何陷入战争的？
How was it that the world went to war?
明白了。
Got it.
这是个非常宏大的问题。
That's a very big question.
好的，我会尽量简明扼要地解释。
Well, I'll try to do it as quickly as possible.
二十世纪初，欧洲主要分为两大同盟阵营。
So the beginning of the twentieth century, Europe was divided into really two main alliance blocks.
一边是俄国和法国组成的协约国，英国某种程度上也依附于这个俄法联盟。
So you had Russia and France with sort of Britain semi attached to the Russian and French alliance called the Entente.
另一边则是同盟国，包括奥匈帝国（哈布斯堡王朝）和新建立的德意志帝国。
And then you had the central powers, which were Austria Hungary, which was the Habsburg Empire, and the newly formed Empire Of Germany.
1914年6月，奥匈帝国皇储弗朗茨·斐迪南大公——正如许多听众所知——在波斯尼亚的萨拉热窝被一名叫加夫里洛·普林西普的波斯尼亚塞尔维亚枪手刺杀。
And in 1914, in the June 1914, the heir to the Austrian throne, the archetype of Franz Ferdinand, as many of our listeners will know, was assassinated in Sarajevo in Bosnia by a Bosnian Serb gunman called Gavrilo Princip.
正如你所料，奥地利人怒不可遏，他们想对塞尔维亚发动一场惩罚性战争。
And the Austrians were furious, as you might expect, and they wanted to launch a punitive war against Serbia.
所以在稍作犹豫后，他们真的这么做了。
So after a bit of faffing around, they did.
他们让德国盟友为此背书，承诺会支持他们。
They've got the Germans, their friends, to kind of underwrite it, say they'd support them.
于是奥地利向塞尔维亚发动了进攻。
So the Austrians attacked Serbia.
自视为塞尔维亚保护者的俄罗斯对此表示反对。
Russia, which saw itself as the Serbian's protector, objected to this.
俄罗斯向奥地利宣战。
They declared war on Austria.
他们开始针对奥地利进行军事动员。
They mobilized against Austria.
德国人随即加入对抗俄罗斯——这也意味着同时对抗法国，因为法国与俄罗斯是同盟关系。
The Germans then piled in against Russia, which also meant piling in against France because France was allied to the Russians.
于是现在形成了两大阵营的对立局面。
So now you had the two blocks against one another.
随后几天里各方都有些犹豫不决，因为大家都在观望英国的态度——英国与法国是亲密盟友，但并没有正式义务必须协同干预。
And then there's a little bit of dithering for a couple of days while everybody wonders what Britain will do because Britain is friends, very close friends with the French, but not necessarily formally bound to intervene alongside them.
英国国内也经历了一番争论，但当德国为对付法国而入侵中立国比利时时（这违反了他们签署的条约），所有人的立场都明确了。
And there's a bit of a debate in Britain, but then everybody's minds are made up because the Germans in order to deal with the French go through neutral Belgium, which by treaty they are not allowed to do.
根据同一项条约，英国感到有道义责任进行干预并保护比利时。
And under the same treaty, Britain feels duty bound to intervene and look after the Belgians.
于是我们跨过英吉利海峡参战了。
So over we go across the channel.
正如播客标题所言，余下的就是历史了。
And as the title of the podcast has it, the rest is history.
精彩。
Brilliant.
实在太精彩了。
Absolutely brilliant.
好的。
Okay.
我们都是英国人，在此向非英国听众致歉。
This is we're both British, and I apologize to non British listeners.
但我们要从一条非常以英国为中心的推文开始，这是Virgo Sam发给我们的。
But we are going to start with, a very Anglo centric tweet sent to us by Virgo Sam.
她写道：'根据你们刚才讲述的高潮部分...' 对。
And she says, following up on on the climax of your account there Yeah.
我们英国本应置身第一次世界大战之外。
We, Britain, should have stayed out of World War one.
参战唯一的结果就是引发了另一场世界大战。
All it did was cause another world war.
这个观点是尼尔·福克森极力鼓吹的。
That is a thesis that's been pushed very heavily by Neil Folkerson.
是的。
Yes.
一位研究第一次世界大战的杰出历史学家曾发表过反事实推演：如果英国当时选择置身事外，历史会如何发展。
Distinguished historian of the First World War, who, published as a counterfactual what would have happened had had Britain stayed out.
所以多米尼克，我的意思是，如果我们当时没有参战，会
So so Dominic, what I mean, what do if we had not gone to war, what would
发生什么？
have happened?
首先需要明确的是，英国当时完全有可能选择不参战。
Well, the first thing to say is that could easily have happened.
对吧？
Right?
我们当时完全可以避免卷入战争。
That we could easily have not gone to war.
事实上直到1914年8月初，当时自由党政府中的许多成员都认为我们不应该介入。
So right up till really the very beginning of August 1914, the people in the Liberal government at the time, many of them thought we shouldn't get involved.
他们中甚至有人表示：听着，如果德国人进入比利时，只要他们只经过南部地区，只是借道而过而不大肆张扬，我们或许可以睁只眼闭只眼。
They even some of them even said, know, if the Germans go into Belgium, if they only go through the bottom, if they just pass through and they don't make a great fuss and a hullabaloo, we can kind of let them get away with it.
温斯顿·丘吉尔是个好战分子，他曾说，如果德军只是稍微穿过比利时一点点，那或许就没有真正的开战理由。
Winston Churchill, who was a great warmonger said, if they only just pass through Belgium a little bit, then maybe there's not really a cause for war.
所以我们本可以轻易避免参战。
So we could easily not have done it.
而我们最终参战的原因是人们认为这是最不坏的选择。
And the reason we did it was because people thought it was the least worst option.
我是说，所有这类事情都是如此。
I mean, that's the case with all these things.
人们当时就想，你知道吗？
People just thought, well, you know what?
如果我们不干预而德国获胜，他们将成为欧洲的主宰。
If we don't do it, if we don't intervene and the Germans win, they'll be the masters of Europe.
我们将被孤立。
We'll be isolated.
他们将控制所有海峡港口。
They 'll have all the channel ports.
我们会被逐渐排挤出去，最终失去我们的帝国——这基本上是人们潜意识里的顾虑。
We will be sort of squeezed out and we'll lose our empire, which was basically the consideration at the back of people's minds.
我们不能失去帝国。
We can't lose the empire.
我们不能让德国人获胜。
We can't let the Germans win.
但事实是，我们确实失去了帝国。
Now, it happened, we did lose their empire.
我们在五十年后失去了它。
We lost it fifty years later.
而如今的德国无疑是欧洲大陆上首屈一指的经济强国。
And Germany right now is by far the leading economic power in Continental Europe.
第一次世界大战导致了什么后果？
And what happened as a result of the first world war?
正如维戈·萨姆所说，我们不得不打了第二次世界大战。
We had to fight a second world war, as Virgo Sam says.
苏联共产主义的崛起以及与冷战相关的所有代价。
You had the rise of communism in The Soviet Union and the cold war with all the costs of that involved.
第二次世界大战的巨大代价、纳粹主义的兴起、大屠杀以及其他所有后果。
You have the terrific costs of the second world war, the rise of Nazism, the Holocaust, all the rest of it.
所以我们不知道如果我们当初选择不参战会发生什么。
So we don't know what would have happened if we'd stayed out.
但情况真的会比实际发生的更糟吗？
But could it seriously have been worse than what did happen?
当然，他们当时不可能知道这些，但我们现在知道了。
Now, of course, they couldn't have known that at the time, but we know that now.
因此，事后看来，我认为很明显我们本不该参战。
So with the benefit of hindsight, it seems to me obvious that we shouldn't have.
如果我们当初选择不参战，那么德国很可能会获胜。
If we had stayed out, then presumably Germany would have won.
德国可能获胜的原因之一是我们曾与法国达成协议，由我们的海军负责英吉利海峡的巡逻。
And one of the reasons why Germany would probably have won is that we were kind of we had agreed with the French that that our navy would patrol the channel.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
That's right.
法国在英吉利海峡根本没有海军力量。
The the French had no naval presence at all in the channel.
所以我们基本上是把法国人给出卖了。
That's So we essentially would have sold the French down the line.
嗯。
And Yeah.
法国大使有句名言，说他当时在等待英国做决定期间，想看看'荣誉'这个词会不会从英语词典里被删除。
The the the French ambassador famously said that he was waiting to see if the word honor was going to be deleted from the from the English dictionary while he was waiting for for the British to make their mind up.
我明白了，很多法国人认为我们不会这么做，因为他们觉得英国人都是背信弃义的混蛋。
I see a lot of the French thought we wouldn't do it because they thought they're perfidious, you know, they're treacherous shits, the British.
他们很可能会出卖我们。
They probably will sell us out.
很多法国人，你知道的，都在哭天抢地，说什么‘英国人害惨了我们’。
And a lot of French, you know, are are sort of crying and oh, woe is me, the Brits.
他们啊，基本上总是让你失望。
They you know, they always let you down, basically.
国外很多人普遍认为英国很可能不会参与进来。
And a lot of people abroad, the general assumption abroad was that Britain probably wouldn't get involved.
比如德皇威廉二世，他对英国有种强烈的心结——作为维多利亚女王的孙子，总觉得他的英国亲戚们一直看不起他。
So the Kaiser, for example, who has this huge complex about Britain because he's the grandson of Queen Victoria, he thinks his British relatives have always looked down on him.
他还有种近乎荒诞的自卑感，因为表兄乔治和叔叔埃迪总在嘲笑他那套德国做派。
And he has this sort of this sort of almost tragicomic sense of inadequacy because, you know, cousin George and uncle Eddie are always sort of laughing at his German way.
是啊。
Yeah.
他觉得英国人肯定不会插手干预。
He thinks the Brits you know, surely the British will not intervene.
肯定不会这么做的。
Surely, won't do it.
正如你所说，我认为这关乎荣誉问题。
And as you say, I think there was a question of honor.
所以对于当时的自由党政府来说，他们认为我们已经向法国做出了承诺。
So for the Liberal government at the time, they thought, you know, we've made this pledge to the French.
我们实际上不能（背弃承诺）。
We actually can't.
如果我们背叛他们，就会失去我们的好名声。
We'll lose our good name if we don't if we do the dirty on them.
如果我们让他们独自面对欧洲最现代化的专业军队——德国军队的威力。
And if we if we leave them to face the might of basically the the most modern professional army in Europe, which was the German army.
德国人已经在1870-71年彻底击败过法国。
The Germans had already wiped the floor with the French in eighteen seventy, seventy one.
他们很可能在1914年再次击败法国，然后调头对付俄国。
They probably have beaten them again in 1914, and then turned to deal with Russia.
因此我认为德国本会获胜的假设是合理的。
So I think it's a plausible assumption that Germany would have won.
对。
Right.
所以这个问题——英国是否应该参战，以及我们本可以轻易选择不参战的这种说法。
So so this this this this question of whether Britain should have entered the war and the the the framing that we could easily not have done.
归根结底，这实际上取决于个别内阁大臣的决定。
So, ultimately, it it comes down to the decision of, basically, of individual ministers.
是的。
Yeah.
这实际上引出了一个更广泛的问题：第一次世界大战的起因是否具有席卷性？
And that really focuses in on the much broader question of, are the causes of the First World War sweeping?
是资本主义的本质导致的吗？
You know, is it the nature of capitalism?
是帝国主义的本质导致的吗？
Is it the nature of imperialism?
还是欧洲工业文明本质导致的？
Is it the nature of industrial civilization in Europe?
又或者是因为大公的汽车在萨拉热窝转错了弯？
Or is it because the archduke's car took a wrong turning in Sarajevo?
人们对此各执一词，不是吗？
And people have argued both, haven't they?
从某种意义上说，这个问题的确令人着迷——我猜这可能是被讨论最多、争议最大、分歧最严重的问题。
And there's a sense, really, in which the the fascination I mean, I I would guess that this is the question that has been most discussed, most debated, most disagreed about.
就像克里斯托弗·克拉克在他杰出的著作《梦游者》中所说，即便他看似已阅尽相关文献，实际上也不可能穷尽所有，因为相关著述实在浩如烟海，无人能全部读完。
I mean, Christopher Clark, his brilliant book, The Sleepwalkers, says that that that even he, seems to have read everything on the subject, that actually it's impossible because so many so much has been written about it that that no one person could ever read it all.
是的。
Yeah.
这个议题的魅力在于，它就像给历史学家的罗夏墨迹测验。
That that the fascination of this topic is that it's like a kind of Rorschach test for someone as a historian.
如果你强调偶然性，就有大量证据支持这点。
If you emphasize the contingent, then there's plenty to prove that.
如果你侧重马克思主义或其他理论，同样能找到充足的依据。
If you emphasize Marxist or whatever theories, then there's plenty for you there as well.
因此从根本上说，这个问题能反映出你作为历史学家的立场。
So, essentially, the question gives you back your reflection as a historian.
确实如此。
It does.
你觉得这个说法公允吗？
You think that's fair?
我认为确实如此。
It's I think it does.
我觉得非常公允，汤姆。
I think it's very fair, Tom.
这是个非常犀利的观点，而且我认为这是个无解的问题，不是吗？
I think that's a very good point, and I think it it's an unanswerable question, isn't it?
就像另一个终极问题：罗马帝国为何衰亡？
It's like, why did the the other big question is why did the Roman Empire fall?
这类问题本质上都是无法解答的。
And they're ultimately unanswerable questions.
这个问题没有固定公式可以解释，因为它取决于你如何解答。
There's no formula that will explain it because it depends how you would address the question.
但关于第一次世界大战起源这个问题的奇特之处在于，从某些方面看，它爆发的原因相当明显。
But also the the weird thing I think about this question about the origins of the First World War is, in some ways, it's quite obvious why it started.
战争爆发是因为奥地利人觉得再也无法容忍塞尔维亚在其南部边境的蚕食行为。
So it started because the Austrians felt they couldn't tolerate any longer Serbia kind of gnawing away at their southern borders.
他们认为塞尔维亚很可能参与策划或掩盖了斐迪南大公遇刺事件，贝尔格莱德政府与此有说不清的瓜葛。
And they thought the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, which Serbia has, probably colluded in or covered up or this murky stuff going on with the government in Belgrade.
他们认为自己再也无法容忍这种局面。
And they thought we can't tolerate this anymore.
我们必须采取行动。
We have to act.
这种反应并非难以理解。
Now that's not an unfathomable response.
实际上从宏观历史角度看，这是应对南部边境威胁的完全理性方式。
That's actually a perfectly in grand sweep of history, it's a perfectly rational way to deal with a threat to your southern border.
关于第一次世界大战起源的奇怪之处在于，我们不会对其他所有战争进行同样的辩论。
And the weird thing about the origins of the First World War is we don't have the same debate with all every other war.
只有这一场战争例外，因为它的死亡人数如此惊人，我认为这是灾难性的。
It's just this one because of the death toll, because it was so cataclysmic, I think.
我们执着于它爆发的方式，仿佛这是个巨大的谜团。
We we obsess over the way that it started as though it's some great mystery.
我们不会因为
We don't do that because of
拿破仑战争或七年战争或三十年战争而这样做。
the Napoleonic Wars or the Seven Years' War or the Thirty Years' War.
它们为何爆发是显而易见的。
It's perfectly obvious why they started.
但战争并非异常现象。
But wars are not anomalous.
它们并非反常行为。
They're not aberrant.
它们才是常态。
They're the norm.
但但但这不是因为之前有一个世纪的和平吗？
But it but but isn't it because there'd been a century of peace?
是啊。
Yeah.
但后来战争爆发的背景是，你知道，欧洲各大强国基本上处于和平状态。
But then well The the war happens in the context of you know, Europe essentially is at peace, the great powers.
我是说，我知道你们面临着完成任务和取得成果的压力，但大体上，在第一次世界大战之前，并没有出现拿破仑战争那种规模的大国冲突。
I mean, I know you have the pressure of doing it stuff and getting something But in people's but but by and large, there is no kind of seismic great power conflict of the order of the Napoleonic Wars until the First World War.
那么问题就变成了：是什么驱使着这些人？
And so the question then becomes, what what is it that drives all these people?
我想我们脑海中会浮现出那些头戴羽毛帽子的人，是的。
And I think we kind of we visualize in our mind people in, you know, hats with feathers and Yes.
女士们穿着飘逸的裙子，你知道的，在草坪上举行正式茶会。
Ladies in sweeping dresses and, you know, formal tea on lawns.
我们对这个爱德华时代的世界有一种感知，它随后就被彻底摧毁了。
And we have a kind of sense of this Edwardian world that then just gets detonated.
这不仅仅是因为
And it's not just because of
第一次世界大战。
the First World War.
正如你所说，还因为共产主义推翻了SARS政权。
As you say, it's be also because communism overthrows the SARS regime.
法西斯主义开始在号称欧洲最文明国家的心脏地带确立其地位。
Fascism comes to to stamp its place in the very in in the heart of Europe's most civilized nation.
所以这是所有这些接踵而至的恐怖带来的感受。
So it's the sense of all these horrors that follow.
为什么为什么它会爆发？
What why why does it explode?
这是一个火药桶，还是一场意外？
Is it is it a tinderbox, or is it an accident?
嗯，我认为那是个意外。
Well, I think That's an accident.
这显然不是意外，因为它本可以更早发生。
It's it's obviously not an accident because it could have happened earlier.
当时有两三次机会。
There were two or three occasions.
比如1908年奥地利吞并波斯尼亚时，俄国人对此极为不满，当时就有人讨论是否会爆发战争。
So, for example, when Austria had annexed Bosnia in nineteen o eight, you know, the Russians were in a terrible state about it, and there was talk then could there be war?
德国人和法国人之间冲突不断。
There were constant clashes between the Germans and the French.
德法两国自1870-71年就结下仇怨，当时普鲁士大败法国，德意志帝国完成统一。
So the Germans and the French had bad blood from eighteen seventy seventy one when Prussia had wiped the floor with France and the German empire had been unified.
我记得那时英国舆论是强烈亲普鲁士的。
And I think I'm right that that that at that point, opinion in Britain was very pro Prussian.
是的。
Yes.
确实如此。
It was.
英国的主流舆论对法国的挫败表示欢迎。
Majority opinion in Britain welcomed the humbling of France.
是的。
Yeah.
我们改变态度是有明显原因的。
We changed for an obvious reason.
我们改变态度是因为德国变得过于强大了。
We changed because Germany becomes too successful.
你看，法国人长期以来都是我们的头号敌人。
So, you know, we the French were number one enemies for a long time.
事实上，有个很好的例子就是威廉·勒奎克斯这个人。
And in fact, there's a very good example of that, of a man who called William Le Quex.
他写了很多关于入侵题材的小说。
And he writes these invasion stories.
所以基本上就是关于英国被外国人入侵的幻想故事。
So fantasies, basically, about Britain being invaded by foreigners.
战役
The battle of
道金
Dawking.
没错。
Exactly.
这类事情。
This kind of thing.
他最著名的作品是《1910年入侵》，这是受《每日邮报》委托创作的。
His most famous one is called the invasion of nineteen ten, which was commissioned by the Daily Mail.
他描写德国人接连攻占城镇，这些城镇都是《每日邮报》发行量特别高的地区。
And he he the Germans went through town after town, and they were specifically designed to be towns with very high Daily Mail circulation.
《邮报》还制作了地图。《每日邮报》的
And the Mail did a map The Daily Mail's
这分明是臭名昭著的危言耸听，对吧？
famous famous scaremongering, isn't it?
没错。
Yeah.
这些说法简直骇人听闻。
This is outrageous claims on.
但它卖出了百万册，足见其受欢迎程度。
But it sold a million copies, which tells you how popular it was.
不过他的初版作品——当时是根据早期书籍改编的——入侵者还是俄国人和法国人。
But his first edition of it, which had been written, he based it on an early book in which it was the Russians and the French who invaded us.
后来反派之所以变成德国，是因为德国后来居上超过了我们。
So, the reason that the villains changed was because Germany had overtaken us.
德国制造商在经济上超越了我国。
German manufacturers had overtaken us economically.
德国人开始试图在海军建设上与我们竞争，造了许多无畏舰。
The Germans had to try to sort of compete with us in building a navy and lots of dreadnoughts.
德皇威廉二世总是摆出一副狂妄自大的姿态，到处耀武扬威，还总爱抱怨他的亲戚们。
The Kaiser had done all his sort of mad posturing and strutting around and moaning about his relatives.
因此民众开始敌视德国，德国成了头号公敌，而此前这个位置一直属于法国。
So people had turned against Germany, and Germany had become public enemy number one, whereas previously it had been France.
要我说，我们之所以与法国结盟，某种程度上是因为法国在国际地位排行榜上有所下滑。
I mean, one reason we were allied to France, you could argue, is because the French had declined a bit in the sort of league table of nations.
他们从原本数一数二的位置跌到了第三第四名。
They'd they'd gone from being sort of number one or number two to number three or number four.
他们本应是我们结盟的明显选择，而非德国人，这在早些时候或许还有可能。
And they were the obvious people for us to ally with rather than the Germans, which might have been the case earlier on.
尼尔·弗格森的观点是，我们之所以没有与德国结盟，实际上是因为德国人太弱了。
The Neil Ferguson argument is that we didn't ally with Germany because actually the Germans were were too weak.
你认同这个观点吗？
Do you do you buy that?
我认为其中有一定道理。
I think there's a bit of truth in that.
这与克里斯·克拉克的观点有些相似，即我们尤其与俄罗斯结盟是因为惧怕他们。
So that's slightly allied to the the Chris Clark argument, which is that we ally with the Russians in particular because we're frightened of them.
所以这是一种
So it was a kind
绥靖政策。
of appeasing.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
我们害怕是因为帝国的缘故，因为俄罗斯可以横扫阿富汗直下印度，而一切都围绕着保住印度。
We're frightened because of because of the empire, because Russia can sweep down through Afghanistan into India, and everything revolves around keeping India.
确实如此。
So yes.
所以我认为，除非你理解当时人们对印度的执念，否则无法理解英国为何卷入第一次世界大战。
So I think you don't understand why Britain enters the first war, unless you understand how obsessed people were with India.
印度，你知道的，传统上被视为王冠上的明珠。
India is, you know, they're classically stereotypically the jewel in the crown.
如果失去印度，你就会失去顶级国家的地位。
If you lose that, you lose your status as top nation.
你必须保住印度。
You must keep India.
而俄罗斯是对印度的最大威胁。
And Russia is the big threat to India.
所以保护自己免受俄罗斯夺取印度之害的最佳方式，不是与俄罗斯作战或结盟对抗他们，而是让他们站在你这边。
So the best way to protect yourself against the Russians taking India is not to fight the Russians or make allies against them, but to have them on your side.
这种计算未必是荒谬的。
And that wasn't such a necessarily a ludicrous calculation.
但不可避免的是，由于俄罗斯和德国是竞争对手，这意味着德国最终会站在等式的另一边。
But inevitably, because the Russians and the Germans are rivals, that means Germany ends up being on the other side of the equation.
所以实际上，与我们憎恨的俄罗斯结盟比与我们不憎恨的德国结盟更有利——这有点奇怪
So it's actually more advantageous to us to ally with the Russians who we hate than the Germans whom we don't, which is a kind of weird
我就这么给你抛个漂亮又诱人的半截球吧。
And I'm just gonna kind of serve you up a a nice, juicy half volley here.
你觉得英国当时有没有可能选择与德国结盟？
Was there was there any chance, do you think, that Britain might have sided with Germany?
如果我们真那样做了，会对整个战略布局产生什么影响？
And and if we had, how would that have affected the calculus?
嗯，你知道得很清楚，汤姆，我在这里就是来服务的。
Well, you see, this is you know perfectly well, Tom, that this is my really I'm here to serve.
这确实是我非常异端的观点。
This is my really heretical view.
你看，我一直在犹豫不决——要么认为我们根本不该打一战，要么就该站在另一边参战。
You see, I I I oscillate between thinking that we shouldn't have fought the first world war, or that we definitely should, but on the other side.
去攻打法国人。
Attack the French.
没错。
Yeah.
我认为我们应该进攻法国。
I think we should have attacked the French.
是的。
Yes.
我认为海峡群岛的安全一直被严重低估，这对英国来说本应是优先事项。
Think the security of the Channel Islands has been much under underrated as a as a as a priority for Britain.
不。
No.
想想
Think
你真的认为我们本应和德国一起对抗法国吗？
we You should seriously you seriously think we should have decided with Germany against France?
嗯，想想那样会如何发展。
Well, think how it would work.
对吧？
Right?
所以德国是正在崛起的强国。
So Germany is the rising power.
德国是世界舞台上充满活力的现代新兴力量。
Germany is the the dynamic modern new force on the world stage.
如果我们与德国结盟——顺便说这并非不可能，19世纪末的约瑟夫·张伯伦和爱德华时期的霍尔丹勋爵等亲德派就曾向德国人提出过略显无力的结盟建议。
If we had allied ourselves with Germany, which was not impossible, by the way, there were people, Joseph Chamberlain in the late nineteenth century, and then Lord Haldane during the Edwardian period who were very pro German and who made sort of slightly feeble overtures to the Germans about the possibility of reliance.
想象一下我们与德国和奥匈帝国结盟的情形。
So imagine we've been allied with Germany and Austria Hungary.
与俄国人作战根本不足为虑。
Fighting the Russians is no sort of nothing to worry about.
我的意思是，俄国人很糟糕。
I mean, the Russians are bad guys.
他们拥有欧洲最暴力压制的政权。
They have a very, they're the most violent repressive regime in Europe.
俄国精英阶层压迫着他们的人民。
The Russian elite hold down their population.
要知道，很容易就能找到反对他们的正当理由。
You know, it's easy to see how you could make a justification for being against them.
我们总是带着感情色彩谈论的小国比利时，却在刚果经营着非洲最贪婪、最令人厌恶的欧洲殖民地。
Little Belgium, who we always sort of talk about so sentimentally, are running the most rapacious, repulsive of all European colonies in Africa, in The Congo.
塞尔维亚基本上就是个恐怖主义国家，这样只剩下法国。
Serbia is basically a kind of terrorist state, and that leaves France.
当然，法国人是我们祖传的敌人。
And of course, the French are our ancestral enemies.
如果我们不反法，那我们就什么都不是。
If we're not anti French, then we are nothing.
所以我认为可以为我们站在同盟国一方找到充分的理由。
So I think you can create a great justification for us being on the side of the central powers.
德国在二十世纪初的欧洲是许多方面最民主的社会之一。
Germany is in many ways one of the most democratic societies in Europe in the early twentieth century.
那种认为他们基本上是原始纳粹的形象纯属无稽之谈。
This sort of image that they're basically proto Nazis is rubbish.
德国的工会是欧洲最强大的，德国社会民主党。
German trade unions were the strongest in Europe, the German Social Democratic Party.
你知道，德皇有点像...他是蛤蟆先生。
You know, the Kaiser is just a bit of a he's he's mister Toad.
他不是希特勒。
He's not Hitler.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
但是那个德皇，他去见牛群时穿着不合时宜的游艇鞋。
But the so so the Kaiser, he comes to cows, and he wears the wrong yachting shoes.
英国皇室都在嘲笑他。
And the British royal family laugh at him.
于是他回去后，发起了大规模的海军建设计划。
And so he goes back, and he he love he launches a huge program of naval building.
我说得对吗？
Have I got that right?
不对。
That's No.
那是那是那
That's that's That
我觉得那是个A级，是个A+，对吧？
that I think that's an a level that's an a star, isn't it?
对。
Yeah.
谢谢。
Thanks.
所以英国不愿与德国结盟的原因，是因为德国人正忙着扩充他们的舰队。
So so but the reason Britain doesn't is ally with Germany is because the Germans are busy building up their fleet.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，如果皇家海军受到欧洲对手舰队的威胁，那将非常糟糕。
And that is the way you know, if if if the if the Royal Navy is threatened by a rival European fleet, then it it it's terrible.
我记得读过萨基的小说《威廉到来时》。
I mean, I remember I remember reading, Sarkis' novel, When William Came.
《威廉到来时》。
When William Came.
是的。
Yeah.
《威廉到来时》讲述了德国发动海军进攻并获胜占领英国的故事。
When William Came, which is about the the the Germans launching a naval attack and winning and occupying Britain.
书中表达的一个观点是，如果皇家海军被击败，海洋就会变成一种监狱。
And there's a there's one of the ang one one of the things that's expressed in that is that if the if the if the Royal Navy gets knocked out, then the sea becomes a kind of prison.
是的。
Yeah.
别忘了，英国实际上并没有多少
And don't forget, Britain doesn't really have much
陆军力量。
of an army.
所以英国的陆军与其他国家相比简直微不足道。
So Britain's army is pitiful compared with everybody else's army.
是的。
Yes.
所以那会非常容易。
So so that would be very easy.
而且，如果我们没有海军而占领国却有，那么只要有任何反抗迹象，
And and also, if, if we don't have a navy and an occupying power does, then that that navy can just starve us if there's any hint of Exactly.
反抗。
Recalcitrance.
没错。
Yes.
所以英国对海军竞赛的偏执并非完全没有道理，我是说，这并不完全是疯狂的，对吧？
So the the the paranoia in Britain about the naval race is not entire I mean, it's not kind of mad, is it?
不是的。
It's No.
这并不完全是疯狂的。
It's not completely mad.
我的意思是，这基本上就是我们之前播客中讨论过的经典案例，关于崛起大国和衰落大国。
I mean, it's basically your classic we were talking about in an earlier podcast about rising powers and declining powers.
而二十世纪初的英国，我认为它自认为是一个衰落的大国。
And Britain in the early twentieth century, I think feels itself to be a declining power.
我们打了布尔战争，在那场战争中我们差点蒙羞。
We'd fought the Boer War in which we'd been close to humiliated.
对于那些了解的人来说，这确实有种吉卜林《退场赞美诗》的感觉。
There's a real sense that's, there's that sort of Rudyard Kipling recessional poem for people who know that.
某种程度上是对我们帝国的一种忧郁感，我们最好的日子可能已经过去了。
Sort of the sense of melancholy about our empire that our best days are probably behind us.
德国是正在崛起的力量。
Germany is the coming force.
所以当他们开始建造战列舰，当他们拥有自己的无畏舰时，人们对此感到非常焦虑。
So when they start building battleships, when they build dreadnoughts of their own, people get a real tizzy about it.
而且并非没有道理，他们认为我们是一个依赖贸易的国家。
And not unreasonably, they think we are a country that relies, We're a trading country.
我们依赖贸易。
We rely on trade.
我们依赖进口。
We rely on imports.
如果我们得不到这些，就会陷入可怕的困境。
And if we don't get them, we're in a terrible mess.
好的。
Okay.
多米尼克，你能放下笔吗？
Dominic, could you put down your pen?
你的时间到了。
Your time is up.
我们将在休息后继续考试。
We are going to continue with the examination after a break.
不过现在，我们稍后回来。
But for now, we'll be back in a minute.
你好。
Hello.
欢迎回到节目，剩下的就是历史了。
Welcome back to, the rest is history.
我们正在非常谨慎地讨论第一次世界大战的起因。
We are discussing what caused the first one for very modestly.
我想我们已经进行了大约十五分钟。
We've had about fifteen minutes, I think.
我们将再花十五分钟时间尝试给出确切答案。
We'll have another fifteen minutes then try and answer surely.
那个。
That.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
推特上关于这个问题有很多反馈。
So lots of feedback for this question on Twitter.
我们这里引用了丹·杰克逊的话，他是《诺森伯兰的奇妙之书》的作者。
And we have a quote here from Dan Jackson, author of Northumbrian's wonderful book.
他说，我认为上周的主题和这次有交叉点，因为在1914年8月，英国正因爱尔兰自治问题爆发一场文化战争。
He says, I think there's a crossover between last week's subject and this because in August 1914, there was a culture war raging in The UK over Irish home rule.
我知道丹的博士论文就是研究这个主题的。
And I know that Dan did his doctorate on that subject.
意味深长的是，当弗朗茨·斐迪南遇刺时，阿斯奎斯在给妻子的信中写道：好吧，至少我们暂时不用讨论爱尔兰问题了。
Tellingly, when Franz Ferdinand got shot, Asquith wrote to his wife saying, well, at least we won't have to talk about Ireland for a while.
丘吉尔有一句非常著名的评论，我记得是在1922年，他谈到战争如何改变了整个欧洲版图。
And there's a famous, famous comment by Churchill, wasn't there, in, I think, 1922 where he he he he talked about how the whole map of Europe had changed with the war.
但随着洪水退去，水位下降，我们再次看到弗马纳和蒂龙那些阴郁的教堂尖顶。
But as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short, we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again.
所以我的意思是，这确实是个有趣的观点——如果第一次世界大战没有发生，那么很可能已经爆发内战了，肯定是在爱尔兰境内，或许大不列颠本土也难以幸免。
So that I mean, that is a that is an interesting point that that actually had the first world war not happened, then there may well have been a civil war, certainly within Ireland and perhaps within within Great Britain as well.
真有意思。
So interesting.
完全被遗忘了。
Completely forgotten.
其实你之前提到过，在休息前你说到那些飘逸的长裙、草帽，还有人们在沙滩上吃冰淇淋之类的场景。
And actually, you made said earlier, you said before the break, you were talking about the sweeping dresses and the straw hats and people in the beaches eating ice cream and all the rest of it.
这就是我们对爱德华时代英国的印象，仿佛是个堕落前的天堂。
And that's our image of Edwardian Britain, that it's this prelapsarian paradise.
是啊。
Yeah.
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拉金的诗
The Larkin poem.
一切终将灰飞烟灭
All gonna be blown away.
这完全是个误解，因为实际上当时的英国因爱尔兰自治问题已处于内战边缘
And it's completely wrong, because actually Britain felt like a country on the brink of civil war about home rule for Ireland.
当时已有人向爱尔兰走私枪支
There had been people smuggling guns into Ireland.
军队内部几乎发生了哗变
There had been a virtual mutiny in the army.
事实上，英国在一战初期的混乱局面部分源于——斐迪南遇刺后的最初几周里，政府只顾争论爱尔兰问题，整天盯着蒂龙郡地图而非本应关注的塞尔维亚地图
And in fact, one reason that Britain's entry to the first world war was a bit of a shambles is that for the first few weeks after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, basically, the government is just sitting around arguing about Ireland and staring at maps of Tyrone instead of staring at maps of Serbia, which they should have been doing.
如果我没记错的话，《沙岸之谜》是厄斯金·奇尔德斯写的吧？那本是本关于入侵恐慌的小说
Am I not right that is it Erskine Childers who wrote the Riddle of the Sands, which was a kind of invasion scare novel?
他后来不是为爱尔兰共和军搞过枪支走私之类的勾当吗？
And didn't he end up kind of gun running for the IRA or something?
我说得对吗？
Have I got that right?
对。
Right.
没错。
Exactly.
是的。
Yes.
确实如此。
He did.
他确实向爱尔兰走私过枪支。
He he smuggled guns into Ireland.
完全正确。
Exactly right.
所以他实际上是这两个故事之间的连接点。
So he writes so he's actually the link between these two stories.
他撰写了那本关于德国间谍和德国人密谋入侵英国的经典著作。
He writes the the classic book about German spies and about the Germans plotting to invade Britain.
后来，他因参与为爱尔兰共和军走私枪支而被处决。
And then later on, he's executed for his role in smuggling guns in for the IRA.
所以是的，爱尔兰问题，这挺有意思的，不是吗？
So yeah, the Irish issue I mean, that's funny thing, isn't it?
如果加夫里洛·普林西普在蛋糕店外等候大公——要是他爱吃甜食，被分散了注意力，进去买点果仁蜜饼或巴克拉瓦（我猜萨拉热窝应该有卖）。
If Gavrilo Princip waited for the archduke outside a cake shop, now if he'd gone into the if he'd a sweet tooth, he'd been distracted, he'd gone in to get a bit of strudel or baklava, I suppose, it was Sarajevo.
大公的马车已经驶过去了。
The arch the archduke's car had gone past.
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
你知道的， 说不定两周后贝尔法斯特就会响起枪声。
You know, shots might have rung out in Belfast two weeks later.
现在我们一直在做这档关于1914年至1918年爱尔兰大内战的播客。
And now we've been doing this podcast about the great civil war of nineteen fourteen to 1918 in Ireland.
好的。
Okay.
这是汤姆·理查兹提出的另一个问题。
Here's another one from Tom Richards.
我们接下来要讨论《黑爵士》了，因为我认为
We're on to Blackadder because I think
这是不可避免的，
it's It's inevitable,
讨论第一次世界大战不可能不提到《黑爵士》，对吧？
isn't discuss the First World War without without talking about Blackadder.
在《黑爵士第四季》中，埃德蒙说，整件事的真正原因是'不发动战争反而更费劲'。
In Blackadder Goes Forth, Edmund says, the real reason for the whole thing was that it was too much effort not to have a war.
以典型的学校论文风格，我的问题是：你认为这种说法在多大程度上是准确或不准确的？
In true school essay style, my question is, to what extent do you think this is or isn't accurate?
这是个好问题。
That's a good question.
这是个好问题，但我不这么认为。
It is a good question, but I don't think no.
我觉得这种说法不太准确。
I don't think that's quite right.
我认为正确的思考方式是，对所有不同的参与者——奥地利人、俄罗斯人、德国人、法国人来说，发动战争看起来是最不坏的选择。
I think the way to think of it is that for all the different actors, the Austrians, the Russians, the Germans, the French, having a war looks like the least worst option.
所以不发动战争反而是个非常糟糕的选择，因为你会失去大量权力和威望。
So not having a war is like a very bad option because you'll lose a lot of power and prestige.
而且你知道，他们都觉得战争不可避免，并且认为现在发动战争符合他们的利益。
And you're you know, they all feel like a war is coming and that it's in their interest to have
就现在。
it now.
这其中还带有一定程度的宿命论，不是吗？
There there is also a degree of fatalism, isn't there?
是的。
Yeah.
我是说，我们之前讨论的所有这些虚构情节。
I mean, the so we talked about all this fiction.
我的意思是，这种影响某种程度上会麻痹人们对战争前景的感知，或者至少让他们对此习以为常。
I mean, the the effect of this must be kind of to anesthetize people to the prospect of it or or at least to familiarize them with it.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这完全正确。
I think that's absolutely right.
人们都认为战争即将爆发。
The people think there will be a war.
德国将军们都认为将与俄国开战，而且我们中许多人认为应该现在就打。
So the German generals all think there is going to be a war with Russia, And we should a lot of them think we should have it now.
我们应该尽早开战而非拖延，因为俄国正在快速工业化，修建铁路，变得越来越发达和现代化。
We should have it sooner rather than later because Russia is rapidly industrializing, building railways and becoming much more sort of developed and modern.
基本上，如果我们在1925年与他们交战，我们可能会输。
And that basically, if we fight them in 1925, we could lose.
我们现在就要和他们开战。
We're gonna fight them now.
如果要打，现在就是时机。
If we get it over with, this is the time.
奥地利人就是这么想的。
That's what the Austrians think.
他们认为如果我们现在不打塞尔维亚，等到以后再打就会处于更弱势的地位。
They think if we don't fight Serbia now, we'll be in a weaker position when we do fight them.
所有这些，你知道，人们都在拼命寻找心理上的理由来解释。
And all of those are you know, people are sort of driven very hard to find psychological reasons for that.
但在我看来，非常显而易见的解释是——这种想法并不奇怪。
But to me, very obvious explanation is that's not a that's not a weird thing to think.
我是说，战争确实会发生。
I mean, wars do happen.
战争一直都在发生。
Wars happen all the time.
那么，在多大程度上，登山者用绳索相连的形象是准确的呢？
And is it also but also it's to what extent is the the image of, mountaineers linked by ropes an accurate one?
就是，一个人掉下去，然后另一个也掉下去，接着又一个掉下去。
That Well, the one one goes falls off, and then another one falls off, and then another one falls off.
我是说，你说过英国本可以轻易不参战，但这就是事情发展的一部分，不是吗？
I mean, you've said that Britain could easily not have joined the war, but that is a part of what happens, isn't it?
比起试图抓住不放，顺着已经掉下深渊的人继续坠落更容易，因为你们被绳子连在一起
That it's it's easier to kind of just follow the guy who's already fallen into the abyss because you're joined by a rope than to kind of
试着抓住不放。
try and cling on.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这对德国来说绝对是事实。
I think that's definitely true for Germany.
所以一旦奥地利开战，德国就不得不卷入。
So once Austria was fighting, Germany had to get involved.
我认为对我来说，真正的转折时刻，那个让你觉得本不必如此的时刻，是俄罗斯。也许有人会不同意这一点。
I think the real to me, and maybe some people will disagree with this, but to me, the real break moment, the real moment where you think, you didn't have to do that is Russia.
俄罗斯本可以放任奥地利攻打塞尔维亚而不加干预。
So Russia could have let Austria fight Serbia and not intervened.
这对俄罗斯来说并非世界末日。
Wouldn't have been the end of the world for the Russians.
他们本可以放手不管，让这场战争保持为局部冲突。
They could have just let it go and let it be a little local war.
但他们出于威望和地位的考虑，加之他们一直觊觎君士坦丁堡——这是他们的长期目标——最终决定介入。
But they felt for reasons of prestige and status and because they were worried about they had their their eyes on Constantinople, which they and they they that was their long term goal.
他们认为：
They thought, no.
我们不能袖手旁观。
We can't let that go.
我们必须介入。
We have to get involved.
他们实际上认为自己已经对奥地利人让步太多次了。
They actually thought they'd appeased the Austrians too often.
好的。
Okay.
这涉及到另外两个关于一战爆发的流行理论。
So that touches on two other very popular theories for why the first world war happens.
一个是奥斯曼帝国，欧洲病夫，它似乎处于高度瓦解状态，而列强们正虎视眈眈。
One is Ottoman Empire, sick man of Europe, that it's in a seem to be in a a a advanced state of disintegration, and the jackals are are circling.
他们都想分一杯羹。
They want to carve bits off.
所以这也是原因之一。
So that's that's a part of it.
另一个理论尤其与俄国相关，就是它一旦动员起来，这个庞大笨拙的巨兽一旦启动就无法停止。
And the other one is, particularly with Russia, is that it mobilizes, And it's such a kind of vast, ponderous beast that the moment it's mobilized, it becomes impossible to stop.
这就是泰勒提出的观点：欧洲的铁路时刻表决定了这一切。
And so that's the kind of AGP Taylor line that it's, you know, the the railway timetables of Europe meant Yeah.
意味着它无法被阻止。
Meant that it couldn't be stopped.
我是说，
I mean, the
奥斯曼帝国正在解体。
Ottoman Empire is breaking up.
1912至1913年间爆发了巴尔干战争。
There'd been the Balkan Wars in nineteen twelve to thirteen.
因此出现了阿尔巴尼亚等地区，各方势力争夺马其顿。
So the emergence of places like Albania, people fighting over Macedonia.
所以，当帝国解体时，人们会争夺其残余领土。
So, when empires break up, people fight over their remains.
而奥斯曼帝国注定会面临这种局面。
And that was always gonna happen with the Ottomans.
至于铁路时刻表，我是说铁路时刻表...
And as for the railway timetables, I mean, railway time H.
P.
P.
泰勒，相当于当时的尼尔·弗格森，为了追求电视效果把论点推得有点过头了。
Taylor, who's sort of the Neil Ferguson of his day, pushed the argument a little bit too far for sort of TV effect, I think.
但确实如此，当俄罗斯需要动员时，因为国土太辽阔，
But it's true that when Russia Russia has to mobilize because it's so big.
所以它会更早开始动员。
So it mobilizes earlier.
当他们这么做时，沙皇并不想签署命令。
And when they did it, tsar didn't want to sign the order.
沙皇一再抗拒。
The tsar resisted and resisted.
他对朝臣们说，一旦我们这么做，就很难再停下来。
And he said to his courtiers, when we do this, it will be very hard to stop it.
因为这就是那种情况——当一个人武装起来，你也必须跟着武装。
Because it's that thing, you know, when one person tools up, you've got to do it too.
是啊。
Yeah.
但还有一点，这些大国动员所需的时间，与外交斡旋是同步进行的。
But also the the the time it takes for these powers to mobilize, it's going on while diplomatic efforts are happening.
所以这两股力量某种程度上在互相拉扯。
And so the two are kind of pulling at each other.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
你说得对。
You're right.
典型的例子就是德皇与沙皇互发的电报，也就是所谓的'威利-尼基电报'。
And the classic example of that, Tom, is the telegrams that the Kaiser and the Tsar sent to each other, the Willy Nikki telegrams, as they're called.
他们开头还说着'我们是好朋友'之类的话。
Where they start off sort of saying, you know, we're great friends.
我们一直是好朋友。
We've always been pals.
我们得确保这事不会发生。
Let's not, you know, let's make sure this doesn't happen.
我会尽力而为。
I'm gonna do my best.
希望你也尽力而为。
I hope you're gonna do your best.
就在他们这么做的同时，他们的将军们正启动战争机器。
And even as they're doing it, their generals are putting the machinery into pro into action.
是啊。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
我想那算是笼罩在冷战时期的一种阴影吧。
That's a kind of shadow that then hangs over the Cold War, I guess.
可以说那是一种历史记忆。
That there's a kind of memory of that.
这肯定是核战争没有爆发的原因之一。
And that must be one of the reasons why nuclear war doesn't happen.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得你说得完全正确。
That's I think you're absolutely right.
比如大家都知道古巴导弹危机。
Everybody knows the Cuba missile crisis, for example.
首先人们都清楚意识到我们绝不能...
First of all, it was very much on people's minds that we can't
是啊，我敢打赌。
Yeah, I bet.
我们不能像他们那样越过边缘。
We can't go over the brink as they did.
每件事都必须经过如此谨慎的考量。
Everything must be so carefully deliberated.
是啊。
Yeah.
而且我想当时其实只有两个大国，而第一次世界大战的混乱部分原因在于多个国家都...
And I suppose also that was really only two powers, whereas part of the mess of the First World War is its multiple powers all
是啊。
Yeah.
这让事情变得更复杂。
Makes it more complicated.
总之，这里有两组配对的推文。
Anyway, here's here are here are two paired tweets.
我来读一下这两条。
I'm gonna read them both.
一条来自詹姆斯，他问：第一次世界大战是否导致欧洲不再是世界中心？
One is from James, who says, did the First World War cause Europe to stop being the center of the world?
还有克里斯·斯帕克斯，一位澳大利亚人问：澳大利亚人、新西兰人和太平洋岛民是否应该参加第一次世界大战？
And Chris Sparkles, Australian here, should the Australians, Kiwis, and Pacific Islanders have been in the First World War first World War?
所以我觉得这两个问题很配。
So I they go together well.
是啊。
Yeah.
这是一场世界大战。
It's a world war.
我的意思是，就像同盟关系的绳索将欧洲列强拖入战争一样，自治领地位等纽带也将加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰乃至印度等其他殖民地，甚至法国也拖入了欧洲战场。
Does I mean, just as, the kind of the the the ropes of alliance pull European powers into war, so also do the the ropes of of dominion status and so on pull Canada and Australia and New Zealand and indeed India and other other other colonies and indeed the French as well into fighting in in Europe.
他们是否应该参加第一次世界大战？
Should they have been in the first world war?
我是说，我
I mean, I
我想他们不得不参战。
guess They had to be.
他们确实不得不参战。
They had to be, really.
我的意思是，
I mean,
他们当时是帝国的一部分。
they were part
属于那个帝国。
of the empire.
而且实际上，这种情况之前就发生过。
And and, actually, that had happened before.
比如在七年战争和拿破仑战争期间，从来没有约定说你可以置身事外千里之外，让欧洲列强自己解决。
So in the Seven Years' War and the Napoleonic Wars, there never a sort of deal that you'll stay out of it a thousand miles away and let the powers in Europe get on with it.
我是说，那些殖民地都被卷入了这两场战争。
I mean, the colonies have been dragged into both those.
我是说，有谁读过——你听说过帕特里克·奥布莱恩的小说吗？
I mean, who's read the have you heard those Patrick O'Brien novels
我之前尝试读过帕特里克的书，但发现根本读不下去。
I tried before Patrick and found them unreadable.
噢，汤姆。
Oh, Tom.
不。
No.
它们
They
写的全是关于绳索之类的东西。
were It's all just about rope and stuff.
就像水一样从你身上流过。
Just washes over you.
没人知道那是什么意思。
No one knows what that means.
那是关于船帆的。
It's about sails.
我看得太无聊了。
I've seen so boring.
但在那些书里——对那些不了解背景的人来说——故事经常发生在预备战争时期，讲的是海战中的船只。
But but in those books in those books, they're often, they're taking place back in the Preliminary Wars, for people who don't know, and it's about ships at war.
但它们往往发生在世界的另一端，比如南美洲的另一侧什么的。
But often, they're taking place on the far side of the world, on the other side of South America or something.
所以你看，全球性战争之前就发生过。
So this, you know, there had been global wars before.
我是说，这不是第一次全球战争，也不是殖民者参与的第一场战争。
I mean, this wasn't the first global war and not the first war in which colonists had been involved.
你知道的，十八世纪充满了各种代理人战争和殖民地冲突，比如北美殖民者之间的相互争斗之类的。
You know, the eighteenth century is full of sort of proxy wars and colonies, you know, people colonists fighting each other in North America and stuff.
所以这是不可避免的。
So it was inevitable.
不可能有其他结果。
Could never have been otherwise.
这里存在一个论点，不是吗？第一次世界大战的另一个原因是欧洲殖民列强在殖民地磨练他们的杀戮能力。
There there is there is the argument, isn't there, that another cause of the First World War is that the colonial the European colonial powers are honing their ability to kill in the colonies.
是的。
Yeah.
所以在某种程度上，我认为关于第一次世界大战最伟大的小说之一实际上写于十九世纪末，那就是H·G·威尔斯的《世界大战》。
So in a way, one of one I I I think one of the great novels about the First World War is actually written in the the late nineteenth century, is HG Wells' War of the Worlds.
它描绘了一个极度强大的力量焚毁伦敦的场景。
It's a kind of portrayal of an immensely superior power incinerating London.
在小说的开头，威尔斯明确将火星人对英国的行为与英国人对塔斯马尼亚人的所作所为相提并论。
And at the beginning of of of the novel, Wells overtly compares what the Martians do to Britain to what the British have done to the Tasmanians.
没错。
Yes.
确实如此。
It does.
你说得对。
You're right.
塔斯马尼亚的原住民实际上被彻底消灭了。
Aboriginal people in Tasmania who effectively get wiped out.
所以我认为，第一次世界大战确实摧毁了欧洲的金融、经济、文化和道德力量。
And so there's a I I think I mean, I think, clearly, the First World War does devastate Europe's financial, economic, cultural, moral power.
但有观点认为，这某种程度上可以说是帝国的反击。
But there is an argument that that it's a kind of you know, it's it's the empire striking back.
是殖民地的反击。
It's a colony striking back.
这某种程度上是对殖民势力在非洲等地所作所为的悲剧性报应。
It's it's it's a kind of tragic payback for what the colonial powers have been doing in in, say, in Africa.
我听过这个论点，汤姆。
I've heard that argument, Tom.
我有时会想，这个论点是否只是研究帝国的历史学家们拼命想要让自己成为焦点。
I sometimes wonder whether that argument is sort of historians of empire just desperately trying to put themselves center stage.
所以这将说明那个论点，即它就像一个罗夏测试，你在其中发现...是的。
So that would that would illustrate the argument that that that it's a Rorschach test that that you find in Yes.
确实如此。
It would.
你在其中看到了自己关注点的映射。
You find reflected in it your own interest.
欧洲列强并不需要在非洲和亚洲磨练他们的杀戮技巧。
It's not like European powers needed to hone their killing techniques in Africa and Asia.
我的意思是，在拿破仑战争、克里米亚战争、普法战争中，他们已经在欧洲战场上充分证明了自己相互杀戮的能力。
I mean, they'd in the Napoleonic Wars, in the Crimean War, the Franco Prussian War, they proved themselves eminently capable of killing each other on European fields.
没错。
Yep.
好的。
Okay.
实际上，让我们转向另一个问题，因为从某种意义上说，这又关乎文学为战争竖起的镜子，我们又回到了《黑爵士》这个话题。
Well, actually, let let let's go on to another question because, in a sense, this is again about the the mirror that literature has held up to the war, and we're back to Blackadder.
《黑爵士》是否扭曲了我们对一战的认识？
Has Blackadder distorted our views of World War one?
它是否有助于我们的理解？
Has it been helpful in our understanding?
不仅仅是《黑爵士》。
Not just Blackadder.
还有一战诗人。
The First World War poets Yeah.
《噢！多么美好的战争》之类的作品。
Ought a Lovely War, all of that.
‘由蠢驴领导的狮子’这类传统叙事。
Lions led by donkeys, the whole tradition.
讨论这个有变成迈克尔·戈夫的风险。
There's a danger in talking about this that you turn into Michael Gove.
迈克尔·戈夫基本上谴责了《黑爵士》，并说像我这样认为我们本不该参加一战的左翼历史学家实际上是在兜售
Michael Gove basically denounced Blackadder and said that lefty historians like me who thought that we shouldn't have fought the first World War were really sort of peddling
他刚才说的是左翼历史学家吗？
Did he just say lefty historians
像我这样的？
like me?
对。
Yeah.
像我这样的。
Like me.
没错。
Yeah.
嗯，这就是我听到的，显然他确实是这么想的。
Well, that's what I've heard clearly would clearly think.
所以我觉得他...汤姆，你听得很开心吧？
So I think he I think Tom, you're enjoying it?
从我的屏幕上能看到，汤姆笑得太过分了。
I can see on my screen, Tom is laughing far too much.
是的。
Yes.
著名的左翼历史学家，多米尼克·桑德罗。
Famous famous left wing historian, Dominic Sandro.
我能不能说我在其中发挥了关键作用？
Could I just say that I I played a key role in that?
在什么方面？
In what?
在让迈克尔·戈夫对第一次世界大战产生兴趣这件事上，因为我当时和玛格丽特·麦克米伦以及迈克尔·戈夫一起参加了《开启一周》节目。
In getting Michael Gove to interested in the First World War, because I was on Start the Week with Margaret Macmillan and with Michael Gove.
这期播客确实让你近距离接触了伟大人物。
This really is the podcast that brings you brushes with greatness.
之后...在我们录制结束后，玛格丽特更多地谈论了第一次世界大战，我们还讨论了Siri的修订版。
And after after the after we'd done it, Margaret was talking more about the First World War, and we talked about the revision of Siri.
我提到了加里·谢菲尔德的传记，关于黑格将军的。
I mentioned Gary Sheffield's biography of of General Hague.
迈克尔显然是在圣诞节前不久这么做的。
And Michael gave clearly this was just before Christmas.
显然，他回家后就读了这本书。
Clearly, he went back home and and read it.
新年过后，他开始参与关于一战性质与特点的辩论。
And then after New Year, started contributing to the debate on on the character and nature of the First World War.
所以我愿意认为自己也尽了一份绵薄之力
So I like to think that that I too have played my humble part
在...是啊。
in Yeah.
这段关于
The history of the
一战的历史。
First World War.
总之，是的，抱歉。
Anyway, yes, sorry.
我打断你了。
I interrupted you.
但还有诗人们，不是吗？
But it's also the poets, isn't it?
还有威尔弗雷德·欧文、西格弗里德·沙逊。
It's also Wilfred Owen, Siegfried Sassoon.
每个人在GCSE阶段都会学他们的作品，至少过去是这样。
Everybody does them at GCSE or whatever, at least they did.
那种战争形象全是泥泞、鲜血和苦难。
And that sort of image of the war is all mud and blood and misery.
我是说，《噢！多么美好的战争》这件事挺有趣的。
I mean, it's a funny thing about Oh What a Lovely War.
我上学时演过《噢！多么美好的战争》。
I did Oh What a Lovely War at school.
我们排演了这部剧。
We did a production of it.
这是琼·利特尔伍德在六十年代末在她的戏剧工作室创作的一部伟大的反战剧作，基本上算是经典的左翼宣传工具。
And it's this great anti war play down at the end of the nineteen sixties by Joan Littlewood in her theater workshop, and a classic left but left wing adject prop, basically.
有个很棒的故事讲的是一群一战老兵去观看《哦，多么可爱的战争》的早期演出。
And there's a great story about a group of First World War veterans going to an early performance of Oh What a Lovely War.
故事是这样的，他们全程看完了演出。
And the story is, you know, they sat through it.
里面有很多歌曲，这些歌曲本该是讽刺性的，因为士兵们终将战死。
There were a lot of songs, and the songs are meant to be ironic because they're all gonna die.
但这些老兵完全不这么认为。
But the veterans didn't see it that way at all.
他们非常开心地跟着歌曲合唱。
They sang along very happily with the songs.
演出结束后，他们都去了酒吧。
And then afterwards, they all went to the bar.
他们并没有站在那里受到创伤说，哦，我从未谈论过这些或其他事情。
And they weren't standing around traumatized saying, oh, I never talked about this or the rest of it.
他们互相讲述着关于有人手被炸飞的故事，或是站在我旁边的老约翰尼被德国人爆头，一周后我们还用他的头踢足球之类的轶事。
They were telling each other anecdotes about people who've had their hand blown off or old Johnny who I stood next to me had his head shot off by a German, and then we played football with him a week later or, you know, this kind of thing.
所以那种认为人们厌恶战争的观点并不准确，实际上很多人写信回家说他们在战争中过得很开心，因为家乡工厂的生活实在太苦了。
So the idea that people hated it, and a lot of people actually wrote home and said they were enjoying themselves in the war because their life back at home in the factory was so grim.
但威尔弗雷德·欧文在《噢，多么可爱的战争》中将其描述为一场灾难性的、泥泞血腥的错误。
But the Wilfred Owen, I What a Lovely War, black had a take on it as a disastrous, muddy, bloody mistake.
我的意思是，这基本上也是你的观点，对吧？
I mean, that's basically your take as well, isn't it?
我是说，你认为那是一场如此巨大的灾难，我们本就不该卷入其中。
I mean, you're saying that that it was such a calamity that we should never have got involved in it.
确实存在一种修正主义学派，认为那是一场必要的战争。
There is definitely you know, there is definitely the kind of revisionist school, is that it was a necessary war.
好吧，我可不这么认为
Well, don't think it was
一场必要的战争。
a necessary war.
坦率地说，我认为这完全是胡说八道。
I mean, I think that's boulder dash, frankly.
我知道如果加里·谢菲尔德正在听这个节目，他一定会抱头崩溃。
I know if Gary Sheffield is listening to this, he'll be of his head in his hands.
但我完全不认同这种观点。
But I don't buy that at all.
我不认为这是一场必要的战争。
I don't think it was a necessary war.
同样狂妄自大
Equally cocky
左翼历史学家发声了。
left wing historian speaks out.
他们无法让他闭嘴的人。
The man they cannot gag.
我觉得《卫报》现在正在打电话过来。
I think The Guardian are on the phone right now, actually.
想想 再多告诉我们一些
Think Tell us some more
你那些左派的胡言乱语，多米尼克。
of your left wing nonsense, Dominic.
但我不认为那不仅仅是泥泞、鲜血和苦难。
But I don't think it it wasn't it clearly just wasn't all mud, blood and misery.
我是说，战争有很多方面。
I mean, it just So there's lots of aspects to the war.
实际上，我们还没谈到意大利战场、中东战场和空战。
Actually, we haven't talked about the war in Italy, the war in The Middle East, the war in the air.
你知道的，战争远不止被简化为战壕里的巴尔德里格。
You know, there's much more to it than sort of Baldrigg in the trenches, which is being reduced to.
好吧。
Okay.
好吧，我只想继续这个话题
Well, I just wanna stick on this
因为50号加德纳，他此刻也在反复强调这一点。
because 50 Gardner, he's he's hammering home at this point as well.
如果英国当时选择不参战，第一次世界大战会不会重演1870-1871年的局面？
If The UK has stayed out, would the first world war have been a rerun of eighteen seventy seventy one, so the Yes.
坦白说，就是普法战争？
Frankly, Prussian war?
鉴于实际发生的情况，很难说德国的速胜对英国而言会是更糟糕的结果。
Given what actually happened, difficult to see how quick German victory would have been a worse outcome for UK.
所以这基本上就是你想表达的观点，对吧？
So that's basically what you were saying, isn't it?
我是说，最坏的情况能怎样？
I mean, what's the worst that happens?
我们会在1920到1930年代与德国展开大规模经济竞争。
We have a big economic competition with the Germans in the nineteen twenties and thirties.
我是说，说不定我们还会和他们打一仗。
I mean, maybe we even fight a war with them.
那是最坏的情况。
That's the worst case scenario.
但是，既然我们反正也打了那场战争
But, I mean, since we did that anyway
我们清楚德国人的胜利计划是什么吗？
Do we know what the what the German plans for for victory were?
他们想要建立一种经济共同体，对吧？
They wanted a kind of economic community, didn't they?
某种
A kind of
这是尼尔·弗格森的主张。
Well, this is Neil Ferguson's claim.
他基本上说他们想建立欧盟，我觉得大多数人都认为这有点牵强。
He basically says they want to set up the EU, which I think most people regard as a bit of a stretch.
我认为事实是他们当初并没有周密的计划。
I think the truth is they went into it without great plans.
战争爆发后，他们确实制定了一份战争目标声明，内容极具惩罚性。
Then once the war started, they did develop a statement of war aims, which was which were very punitive.
他们基本上想把低地国家变成某种德国的附庸国。
They basically wanted to turn the low countries into a kind of German fiefdom.
他们想让所有国家都加入德国主导的关税同盟。
They wanted everybody to be in a German dominated customs union.
他们对法国有什么计划？
What were their plans for France?
法国将被削弱为德国的卫星国。
Well, France would be reduced to a kind of German satellite.
那对英国呢？
And for Britain?
如果我们参战并被击败，德国对英国有什么计划？我们了解这些计划吗？
So if we'd entered and and and being defeated, what what were the do we know what Germany's plans for Britain were?
没有。
No.
我认为他们对英国没有明确的计划。
I don't think they had clear plans for Britain.
显然，我们会放弃大部分帝国领土。
Clearly, we'd have given up a lot of the empire.
他们会要求没收殖民地。
They would have demanded the confiscation of colonies.
我们是否必须加入某种德国经济联盟很难说。
Whether we would have had to take part in some German economic union is hard to say.
但当然，所有这些事情的真相是，战争结束时出现的结果从来都不是任何人计划中的样子。
But, of course, the truth with all these things is that what resulted at the end of the war was never what anybody had planned.
我的意思是，第一次世界大战后我们得到的结果并不完全是我们战前预期的那样，因为我们其实并没有明确的计划。
So I mean, we didn't get exactly the results in the after the first world war that we thought we had got, we would get beforehand, because we didn't really have clear plans.
人们的战争计划总是在不断变化。
People's war plans were were always changing.
到了1918、1919年，俄国革命的爆发以及对布尔什维克主义蔓延的担忧，我是说，一切都陷入了混乱。
And and by nineteen eighteen, nineteen, the emergence of revolution in Russia and the fears of the spread of Bolshevism, I mean, everything has been thrown into confusion.
所以作为一名左翼历史学家，显然我们应该看看马克思主义的观点。
So so as as a left wing historian, obviously, we we we should look at the Marxist take Yeah.
关于第一次世界大战。
On the first world war.
列宁对此的看法是，这是资本主义和帝国主义末日的开始。
And Lenin's view on it was that it was the kind of end times for capitalism and imperialism.
是的。
Yes.
那个那个预测并没有真正实现。
That that that wasn't a prediction that really really worked out.
没有。
No.
而且我不认为这是追求利润、寻找市场以及帝国主义必然结果这类行为导致的。
And I don't think it's a result of the search for profit and search for markets and and all that kind of stuff that's a necessary result of imperialism.
我认为你不需要走马克思主义路线来解释这个问题。
I I don't think you need to go down the sort of Marxist line to explain it to you.
我的意思是，我认为战争爆发的原因和大多数战争一样，源于恐惧。
I mean, I think it starts for the reason most wars start, which is fear.
人们总是认为...也许你对波斯战争之类的事件会有不同的看法。
People always think I I mean, you maybe you'll have a different take on this going back to the sort of Persian Wars and all that sort of stuff.
我认为战争通常不会因为贪婪或仇恨这类原因而爆发。
I don't think wars start generally because of greed or because of hatred or any of those things.
我认为战争通常始于人们的恐惧，他们认为战争是诸多坏选择中最不坏的一个。
I think they generally start because people are afraid, and they think that war is the least worst option.
因为如果不选择战争，你就会变得更贫穷、更弱小，或者敌人会攻击你。
Because if you don't choose war, you will be poorer or weaker or you know, your enemies will attack you.
这就是典型的先发制人逻辑——你认为对方会攻打你，所以你先动手。
I mean, that's the classic reason that you think they're gonna fight you, so you do it first.
但我认为这些才是真正的原因。
But I think those are the real reasons.
还有一种观点认为，人们相当渴望战争，对战争感到兴奋，认为一个世纪的和平太久了。
There is also the argument, isn't there, that that that people quite wanted it, that people were were quite excited about it, that people felt that a century of peace had been too long.
对某些人来说是这样。
For some people.
确实如此。
That's true.
想要再来一场较量。
For a rematch.
如果你读过那些意大利未来主义诗人的作品，比如。
And if you ever read this sort of Italian futurist poets, for example.
我是说，他们
Mean, they
他们渴望战争——我知道你经常读那些作品，汤姆。
were itching for I mean, I know you read that all the time, Tom.
知道，
Know,
在德国，他们可以说是尼采的狂热追随者。
and in Germany, they were they were kind of enthusiasts for Nietzsche and Yeah.
英国的鲁伯特·布鲁克曾说，我们将成为什么——那句关于泳者跃入水中、洗去文明生活污垢的诗句。
Rupert Brooke in Britain, you know, said, you know, we'll be what is it, the line about swimmers leaping into water and washing away the kind of dirt of ordinary civilized life.
我是说，很多人都接受了这种观点。
I mean, a lot of people kind of bought that idea.
当时有种暴力崇拜的风气，我认为。
There was this sort of cult of there was a cult of violence, I think.
不过显然，人们也完全明白即将降临的灾难。
Although plainly, it is also the case that people did did entirely understand what calamity was gonna be.
就像那句名言说的：'欧洲的灯火将熄灭，我们有生之年不会再见它们点亮'。
I mean, I guess the fame said the grey thing about the lights going out over Europe, and we won't see them lit again in our lifetime.
这无疑是在宣告：这场灾难将超出我们的想象。
I mean, that's nothing if not a statement that this is going to be a calamity beyond our imaginings.
所以这是种奇怪的混合——既有沙文主义，又有阴郁的恐怖。
So it's kind of strange mix of of jingoism and and kind of bleak horror.
事实上，每一个
And actually, everybody who
了解内情的人，所有政策制定者，他们都非常清楚情况会有多糟糕。
knew anything about it, so all the people who were the policymakers, they all did know how terrible it was going to be.
比如德国将军赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇，他是德军的总参谋长。
So the German generals, Helmut von Moltke, for example, he was the the German sort of chief of staff.
早在几年前他就告诉过德皇，一旦战争爆发，后果将极其可怕。
He had told the Kaiser a couple of years before, when there is a war, it will be absolutely awful.
即便我们获胜，也会元气大伤、国力衰退，这场战争将耗尽我们的精力，战后我们将变成一个截然不同的国家。
And even if we win, we will come out of it exhausted and poorer, and it will be incredibly draining, and we will be a different country afterwards.
所以他们参战时并不认为这会是什么举旗欢庆的乐事。
So they didn't go into it thinking it was gonna be jolly kind of flag waving.
你知道，这将会是
You know, it was it was gonna be
一场盛大的表演。
a sort of a pageant.
他们大多也没想过战争会在圣诞节前结束，对吧？
They didn't think mostly that it was gonna be over by Christmas either, did they?
不是的。
That's No.
那是个误解。
That's a myth.
是的。
Yeah.
那确实是个误解。
That is a myth.
我是说，有些士兵确实这么想，一些普通士兵。
I mean, some of the soldiers did, some of the ordinary soldiers.
但没有一个将军真的认为这会很容易。
But none of the generals really think, oh, this is gonna be easy.
这不会像在公园散步那么简单。
It's gonna be a walk in the park.
我是说，当然他们不会这么想。
I mean, of course, they don't.
你知道，他们又不是傻子。
You know, they're not idiots.
我们有种固有印象，就像《黑爵士》里演的那样，觉得掌权者都很愚蠢，而普通民众反而聪明又清醒。
They look at the there's this sort of image that we have, the blackadder image, that the people in charge are really foolish, and it's actually the ordinary people who are really smart and clued up.
但我认为这种看法完全错误。
And I think that's completely wrong.
实际上很多参战的普通百姓根本不知道自己去哪里、要做什么。
A lot of the as it were, the ordinary people who went to fight had no idea where they were going and and what they were doing.
有很多这样的故事：法国或俄罗斯的农民刚从田里回来，就被告知要上战场打仗。
There's all these stories about peasants in France or in Russia coming in from the fields, and they're told you're at war, you have to go and fight.
他们甚至不知道为谁而战、与谁为敌。
They don't know who they're fighting for, who they're fighting against.
整场战争对他们而言完全是个谜。
The whole thing is a mystery to them.
而那些掌权者，某种程度上令人恐惧的是，他们确实清楚自己在做什么。
And the people in charge, the scary thing in some ways is that they did know what they were doing.
他们很聪明。
They were intelligent.
他们消息灵通，但
They were well informed, but
他们依然这么做了。
they did it anyway.
他们依然这么做了。
They did it anyway.
这某种程度上可以成为我们这期播客讨论中诸多内容的墓志铭。
And that could kind of be an epitaph for for so much that we've been discussing on this podcast.
或者说整个历史的墓志铭。
Or indeed of all history.
今天就到这里。
For today.
今天的节目就到这里。
That is it for today.
如果你认识正在学习二十世纪历史的人，请务必把这个播客链接发给他们，让他们听听左翼历史学家多米尼克·桑德布鲁克的修正主义观点，告诉他们这能节省大量复习时间。
If you know anyone studying twentieth century history, do please send them a link to this podcast, and they can listen to, left wing historian Dominic Sandbrook giving his revisionist take, and tell them it'll save them hours of revision.
当然，不能保证这能让他们取得好成绩。
Though there's no guarantee it'll get them a good grade, of course.
感谢收听。
Thanks for listening.
下周我们将继续带来《历史的余韵》。
We'll be back next week with the rest is history.
暂时告别了。
Goodbye for now.
感谢收听《历史的余韵》。
Thanks for listening to The Rest is History.
如需获取额外剧集、提前观看、无广告收听及加入我们的聊天社区，请登录restishistorypod.com注册。
For bonus episodes, early access, ad free listening and access to our chat community, please sign up at restishistorypod.com.
那就是restishistorypod.com。
That's restishistorypod.com.
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