462. 斯塔默跌至谷底：他会为求生存而违背竞选宣言吗？

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在我看来，这次补选后工党确实面临重大风险。

It seems to me there's a real risk for Labour here on the back of this by election.

工党的选票彻底崩盘。首相基尔·斯塔默现在的净支持率跌至-51%。

Labour's vote absolutely collapsed. Kyr Stalmer, the prime minister, now finds himself with net popularity ratings of minus 51%.

他或许不是史上最杰出的首相，但其支持率暴跌的幅度确实前所未有且完全不成比例。

He may not be the greatest prime minister he's ever walked the earth, but the collapse of his ratings is unprecedented and totally disproportionate.

我们最终形成的格局，现在看起来像是五党制与两党制的混合体。

We ended up with something that now looks like a five party system and a two party system.

政府必须明白，不能把左翼支持视为理所当然。

The government needs to understand you cannot take the left of you for granted.

他们必须拿出魄力。必须突破竞选宣言的框架，并且要讲好积极的故事。

They have to be big. They have to break the manifesto, and they have to have a positive story.

本期节目由Fuse Energy赞助播出。随着经济和环保优势愈发不容忽视，越来越多的司机正转向电动汽车。

This episode is powered by Fuse Energy. Now more and more drivers are moving to electric as the economic and environmental arguments get much harder to ignore.

电动汽车的真正优势在于家庭充电的经济性。省时又省钱，区别就在于深夜在高速排队充电，还是清晨出门时车辆已满电待发。

And the real benefit of an electric car comes when you can charge affordably at home. Saves time, saves money, difference between a late night queue on the motorway and stepping outside in the morning to a car that's already full.

Fuse让这种转型变得极其简单。它已是英国增长最快的能源供应商，更进一步提供经济型智能EV充电桩，并直接关联智能EV电价套餐。

And Fuse makes that shift very, very simple. It's already the fastest growing energy provider in The UK. They go further, installing affordable smart EV chargers and linking them directly to the smart EV tariff.

这意味着您车道上的充电桩会自动匹配每日电价最低时段，每次充电都更省钱。就像车库里住了位经济学家——不过这位终于物有所值了。

Which means the charger in your driveway is synced to the cheapest hours a day, so every charge costs less. Think of it as having an economist in the garage, but one who finally earns their keep.

Fuze不仅提供电力，更为您妥善配置一切：安装充电桩、匹配电价套餐，所有环节一步到位。

Fuze is not just supplying power. They're setting you up properly, charger installed, tariff aligned, everything in place.

立即改用Fuze，让电动出行更经济。详情请访问fuseenergy.com/politics。欢迎回到节目，我是Rory Stewart。

Switch to Fuze today. Make driving electric cheaper. Find out more at fuseenergy.com/politics. Welcome to the rest of this politics politics with me, Rory Stewart.

我是Alastair Campbell。Rory，最近几周我们讨论了很多国际政策话题，本期上半段让我们聚焦英国政坛，特别是工党及其政府的困境。下半段如你所知，我上周末在波兰采访了副总理，那几天经历非常精彩，我们将探讨波兰、俄罗斯和乌克兰局势。

And me, Alastair Campbell. And, Rory, we had a lot of overseas policy stuff in recent weeks and months. Let's really try to stick to British politics for the first half of the main episode, and in particular, the travails of the Labour Party and the Labour government. Second half, as you know, I was in Poland over the weekend and we did an interview with the deputy prime minister, but it was a really, really fascinating few days. So let's talk about Poland and Russia and Ukraine.

如果时间允许，我们会简要讨论一位非常有趣的新任爱尔兰总统。那么你想从工党开始聊什么？

And if we've got time, we'll squeeze in a bit of of a new a very interesting Irish president. So where do you wanna start with Labour?

我们先让国际听众了解下背景。快速回顾下：2024年大选堪称英国政治史上最不可思议的选举。历史上能获得90%选票的工党和保守党，这次得票率创下二战以来新低。工党虽然获得绝对多数席位，但得票率却低得惊人。

Let's start just to bring international listeners into the story. Quick quick reminder. So there was an election twenty twenty four, and it was the most incredible election that's ever happened in British politics. These two main parties, Labour and Conservatives, that historically sometimes got 90% of the vote ended up with their lowest vote share since the second World War. Labour got this very big majority on a very, very low vote share.

其他政党首次表现如此亮眼。自民党、绿党、改革党得票率都超出预期，我们现在看到的更像是五党制而非两党制。首相基尔·斯塔默的最新YouGov民调净支持率跌至-51%，意味着超70%英国民众对其持负面看法，仅20%表示支持。

And for the first time, these other parties performed brilliantly. The Lib Dems outperformed. The Greens outperformed. Reform outperformed on the percentage of the vote, and we ended up with something that now looks much more like a five party system than a two party system. And Kyr Stalmer, the prime minister, now finds himself with net popularity ratings in the latest YouGov poll of minus 51%, which means that over 70% of the British public view him unfavorably, and only 20% of the British public view him favorably.

这就要说到上周讨论的补选——威尔士传统工党铁票区，原本是全英最安全的工党席位。当时民调领先的是改革党和普利德·坎姆鲁党，最终后者胜选，但改革党表现不俗，而工党得票率彻底崩盘。该你了。

And this then took us to the thing that we discussed last week, which was a by election in what was once one of the safest, labor seats in Britain, in Wales, real traditional proper Welsh labor seat, where Reform and Plyde Cymru were leading in the polls. The result was that Plyde Cymru won, but reform did well, and labor's vote absolutely collapsed. Over to you.

克莱德以11.4%优势胜出，这个领先幅度甚至超过了工党全部得票。确实是彻底崩盘。作为威尔士议会补选，投票率出奇地高——连全国大选都从未超过50%，这次却突破了。我认为这很可能具有里程碑意义。

Yeah and Clyde won by 11.4% and that that majority was bigger than the entire Labour vote. So it was a it was an absolute collapse. Very high turnout for a senate as the Welsh parliament by election. Even the national elections have never passed 50% and this one was above that. The thing is, look I do think it's potentially seminal.

我早就说过，英国主要政党都没有与生俱来的生存权。保守党主导英国政坛一个多世纪，工党虽是另一大党，但我不禁想到法国——传统大党实质上已消亡，新兴政党或极端势力取而代之。卫生大臣韦斯·斯特里廷称此为'哈特尔普尔时刻'，就是当年反对党领袖基尔·斯塔默差点因补选惨败辞职的那次。

I've been saying for some time that you know none of the main parties in Britain have a divine right to exist. We talk about the conservative party as this party that's dominated British government and British politics for well over a century. Labour, the other strong party but part of me keeps thinking about France where the main parties have effectively gone and new parties have had to emerge or the extremes have come in. And West Streathing, the health secretary, was referring to this as the Hartlepool moment. This is a previous by election when Kyrgyzstanbul was leader of the opposition where he actually came close to quitting because Labour did so badly in a by election there.

所以我认为这必将引发某种变革。你看，过去几年选举 campaign 的核心逻辑似乎都是'反对什么'——工党胜选本质上是因'非保守党'属性；基尔·斯塔默通过反对杰里米·科尔宾巩固领导权；两大党都过度强调'不重启脱欧'来定义自己。

So it has to lead, I think, to some sort of change. You see, think what's been happening through the last few years is that elections it seems to me and campaigns are being fought according to what somebody is not. So Labour won the election frankly by not being the Tories. Kirstjarma became leader in a way and then strengthened his leadership by being against Jeremy Corbyn, by not being Jeremy Corbyn. Both of the main parties have sort of defined themselves overly in my view as not revisiting Brexit.

好的？这些都是些负面内容，在我看来工党在这次补选后面临一个真正的风险——他们会认为威尔士存在大量策略性投票现象。那些既不想支持Forage也不想支持Reform的人进行了策略性投票，他们认为Plead最有可能获胜就投给了它。这可能导致工党产生错觉，认为这是'我们对抗Reform'的局面，从而可以组织力量促成更多策略性投票。他们必须制定积极、有力、强势、充满激情且宏大的政策议程，在首个任期内开始实施，并在第二个任期向全国推行。

Okay? So it's all this kind of negative stuff and it seems to me there's a real risk for Labour here on the back of this by election which is that they think that okay, tactical voting came in because there's a lot of tactical voting in Wales. People who did not want forage and did not want reform, they voted tactically and they thought plead is the one that looks like most likely to win, we'll vote for them. There's a real risk that leads Labour to think it's us against reform and we can organise forces so there's lots and lots of tactical voting. They've got to have a positive, powerful, strong, passionate, big policy agenda that they start to deliver through the first term and then they put to the country for the second term.

我认为那种'不作为'的时代已经结束了。

And I think that the the time of sort of not being something is over.

关于这点，克里斯·克拉克有篇很棒的文章，就是你分享给我的那篇，我觉得分析得非常到位。他从大背景切入，也就是民粹主义浪潮——无论你讨论的是特朗普、欧洲还是英国。他将民粹主义定义为：愿意冒犯民众、承受负面舆论、向皈依者布道、押上政治赌注。他指出主流政客对这种新政治环境深恶痛绝。

Part of this, and and there's a great article by, Chris Clark that you you shared with me, which I thought did this very, very well. Yeah. But he begins with the big story, which I suppose is the story around populism and what is this populist moment, whether you're talking about Trump or Europe or Britain? And he defines it as populist being willing to offend people, take negative publicity, preach the converted, have hostages to fortune. And he says that mainstream politicians absolutely hate this new political environment.

这让主流政客僵住了。部分原因是...作为执政党，他们觉得承受不起疏远民众和负面舆论的代价。他举了些例子，比如...

It makes them freeze. Partly because as Yeah. Parties of government, they can't really afford, they feel, to alienate people caught negative publicity. So he gives examples. You know?

作为现任政府，你不能刻意疏远商界，也不能许下根本无法兑现的承诺。结果就是他们采取了防守姿态——基本上就是斯塔默从一开始就展现的那种姿态。克里斯·克拉克指出，死守竞选承诺的做法是明瓦兹策略的极端版。明瓦兹策略本是大选前极度谨慎以求过关，但问题是他们大选后依然在用这套策略，以为光靠标榜'我们很专业'就能蒙混过关。

You can't, as an incumbent government, set about deliberately alienating business. You can't set about, you know, making these huge promises you can't deliver. And the result is that they get into a defensive crouch. And the defensive crouch, broadly speaking, is the one that we've seen Starman take from the beginning, which Chris Clark says getting in behind what you were saying for the election is a kind of exaggerated version of the Ming Vaas strategy. Your Ming Vaas strategy was, you know, be very cautious before the election to get across the election, but he's pointed out they've kept behaving since the election as though they've got a Mingvaz, and they think that they're gonna be able to get by by saying, we're professional.

我们很成熟。

We're grown up.

我们能落实政策。我们很成熟。但在民粹主义政治家的魅力攻势下——无论是奈杰尔·法拉奇还是我们即将采访的绿党领袖扎克·波兰斯基——这套说辞根本不够用。

We do delivery. We're grown up. And that this just isn't enough in an age of charismatic populist politicians, whether actually it's Nigel Farage or in fact Zac Polansky, who were about to interview the leader of the Green Party.

当然，还有特朗普以及现在阿根廷中期选举中大获成功的米莱，他们展示了民粹主义者相信自己可以继续推行民粹主义、采取这些行动、冒犯他人、坚持强硬立场等等。在继续之前，我很高兴你喜欢克里斯·克拉克那篇文章。其实是他父亲——前内阁部长克拉克发给我的。克里斯从小我就认识，他既是研究员也是作家，但为工党做过数百场焦点小组调研，所以对工党与民意很有发言权。

And also, of course, Trump and now Millet, who has had this spectacular success in the midterms in Argentina, they show that on the populist side they believe they can carry on being populist and doing all these things and offending people and taking difficult positions and and so forth. Just before we go on, I mean I'm glad you liked the piece by Chris Clark. It was actually his dad who sent it to me, Clark, the former cabinet minister. And Chris, who I've known literally since he was a very small child, He is a researcher, he's a writer but he's done hundreds of focus groups for and on the Labour Party. So he kind of knows what he's talking about with Labour and public opinion.

但不知道罗瑞你注意到那张图表没有。我这就举起来，我们也会把这张图放进通讯稿里。这张图综合了所有政党领袖的满意度与不满意度平均值。比如当约翰·梅杰不受欢迎时，托尼·布莱尔正得人心，所以整体平均值保持平稳，呈近似直线。而现在的断裂点，可能源于议员开支丑闻，也有英国脱欧的因素。

But I don't know if you're struck by that graph Rory. I'll just hold it up and we'll put it we'll put this all in the in the newsletter for people as well. This is a graph that averages out the satisfaction dissatisfaction ratings of all the party leaders and combines them. So it points out that for example, when John Major was unpopular, Tony Blair was popular, so the average was kept floating, you know, along a sort of a fairly straight line. And what you've seen, and I think the break in this, is possibly MP's expenses and I think it might be a bit of Brexit as well.

但本质上这条趋势线是平稳的。托尼·布莱尔执政期间多数时候高于平均值，但此后就持续下跌再下跌。基尔·斯塔默的情况很典型——他或许不是史上最杰出的首相，但克里斯指出其支持率崩盘程度堪称史无前例且完全不成比例。这反映出更深层的反政治情绪在蔓延。

But basically, the line is fairly static. Tony Blair kind of outperforms it for most of the time that he's in there but since then, it's just steadily gone down and down and down and down, which basically says because I find the thing with Kyrstheimer, he, you know, he may not be the greatest prime minister who's ever walked the earth, but Chris points out that the collapse of his ratings is what he calls unprecedented and totally disproportionate, and it is. And so there's something deeper going on that is anti politics.

我认为社交媒体是主因。不过先看数据——这张图很棒。撒切尔夫人刚上任时净支持率约负二，1984年升至正八，而跌到负十五时正是她下台之际。

I think a lot of this is social media. But but if we just dig into those figures for a second, I thought it was a great graph. But Satcher, when she was unpopular, when she came in, was at about minus two net popularity, got up to plus eight in 1984. And when she got to minus 15 was the moment she left. Yeah.

梅杰最高正十二，离任时约负十。布莱尔峰值正二十二，卸任时约负八。卡梅伦离任时负二十，苏纳克大致相同。斯塔默从负二十五跌至——如今天数据显示——负五十二。

Major plus 12 and leaves on about minus 10. Blair gets up to plus 22, leaves on about minus eight. Cameron leaves on about minus 20, Rishi about the same. Stammer goes from minus 25 down to, as I say today, minus 52.

确实。

Yeah.

我完全同意你的观点。其实最近几位资深人士——他们与历任首相都有交往——对我稍有微词，因我调侃斯塔默缺乏魅力与魄力。其中一位对我说：罗瑞，别不公平，这人品行端正，非常专业。

And I absolutely agree with you. I got a bit of pushback actually recently from some very, very senior figures who've known all these prime ministers when I was, I'm afraid, doing a slightly cheap jibe at Stama, kinda lacking charisma, lacking drive. And one of them said to me, Rory, don't be unfair. This guy is a really decent guy. He's highly professional.

他非常严肃。还对我说，要知道，小心你的愿望。你坐在那里冷嘲热讽发牢骚倒是轻松。我向你保证，几乎所有其他候选人都会比清正大人对国家造成更糟糕的影响。

He's highly serious. And said to me, you know, be careful what you wish for. It's all very well you sitting there being cynical and grumbly. Let me assure you, almost all the other candidates are gonna be much, much worse for the country than Kiyosama.

你说'严肃'这个词在时代精神中分量很重。不知道你是否看了今天的《纽约时报》，有一篇关于奈杰尔·法拉吉的长篇报道，标题大概是'这个极度不靠谱的人真要成为英国下一任首相吗？'。而我觉得基尔最有趣的一点——部分可能是我促成的，因为我之前参加过BBC三台的《私人情怀》节目，类似古典音乐版的《荒岛唱片》。当时我对主持人迈克尔·伯克利说，基尔·斯塔默其实很热爱古典音乐，会演奏多种乐器，你们应该邀请他上节目。

Well, you say that you the word serious is a big profile in the spirit of the Times. Don't know if you've seen today's New York Times, there's a big profile of Nigel Farage and the headline is something like, is this deeply unserious man seriously going to be the next Prime Minister of The United Kingdom? And the thing about KIA that I find really interesting, I think partly in my instigation, because I did that Radio three programme Private Passions which is like sort of classical music Desert Island Discs. I did it a while back and talking to Michael Berkley, the interviewer, I said, you know, Keir Starman's really into classical music and plays lots of different instruments and so forth. You should try and get him on.

后来他们真请了他，节目周末播出了。大家应该听听，因为你会感觉基尔展现的是真实自我。我觉得很多人看到公开场合的基尔·斯塔默时，总怀疑他是否真实——比如昨天他与土耳其签订台风战机大单时，依然带着那种刻意的僵硬。换作特朗普肯定会夸张宣称'这是我们达成的最伟大交易'，但基尔只是站在镜头前说'这对经济和就业有利，我们会完成它'。

Anyway, they got him on and it was on at the weekend and people should listen to it because the thing about it is you feel like Keir is just being himself and I think a lot of what people feel when they see Keir Starmer in public is they're not sure that he is being himself because he does have that slightly stilted even yesterday doing this huge deal with Turkey on typhoons, a massive deal. And yet, you know, you can imagine Donald Trump projecting that saying, this is one of the biggest deals we've ever done and I love me and Erwin there. He'd do it in a kind of Trumpian way. Yeah. Kieh sort of stands in front of the camera and he says, this is good for the economy and it's good for jobs and this is going to be done.

他立刻切换成非本真的说话方式。你说得对，政客都会僵化。但我喜欢克里斯·克拉克那篇文章（原载于Substack，我们会转载到通讯里），他提出了改进建议。我们来看看他选的四个领域：首先是沟通——我完全同意第一条'承认我们不知道或做不到的事'。就像他举的例子：当初在冬季燃料补贴上改弦更张时，工党试图假装原本就计划如此。

And he immediately goes into a way that he doesn't really speak like when he's being himself. And you're right that politicians freeze. But what I liked about Chris Clarke's piece, and I think it was originally a substack but we'll we'll put it in the, in the newsletter. What I liked about it was that he was being, he was trying to come up with ideas for improvement and I've got to say, let's just go through the four areas that he chose because the first one, communications, I agree with them all. Number one, admit what we don't know or can't do and the example he gives which you and I said at the time, when they did the u-turn on the winter fuel payment, they kind of tried to pretend that that was what they planned all along.

其实不如直接说：'我们搞砸了，这本不该是首场硬仗，但我们会纠正错误'。第二条'展示决策过程'我很喜欢——比如瑞秋·里夫斯不该被动防守，而该制作视频详解：什么是财政规则？这些规则具体是什么？

Instead of which, far better to say, know, we balls this up, shouldn't have been our first big fight but we're gonna put it right, okay? The next one, show, I like this, show your workings. And he says for example, Rachel Reeves instead of sort of being out on the defensive saying this that and the other, do really interesting video explainers. What is the fiscal rule? What are these fiscal rules?

违反规则会怎样？第三点是议员大臣要真实，别像机器人说话。第四点：停止抱怨遗留问题——对此我半信半疑。第五点很有意思：

What will actually happen if I break them? Third point was about authenticity of MPs and ministers, not talking like robots. Number four: stop blaming the mess we inherited. I'm a bit fifty fifty on that one. Number five: this is really interesting.

停止寻找攻击改革党的致命武器。击败他们的唯一方法是建立足够清晰的积极议程（回到我之前说的），让他们沦为纸上谈兵的批评者。我认为要精简增长议题的表述，多承认英国脱欧已失败且注定行不通——这点我完全赞同。

End the search for a killer attack on reform. The only way to beat them is by building up sufficient clarity and momentum, back to my point about the positive agenda, that they can be brushed aside as armchair critics. And I think that's babble. Minimize growth in the messaging, acknowledge as often as possible that Brexit failed and could never have worked. I totally agree with that.

几个月来我一直在强调这一点。把公平作为治理原则，我喜欢这个提议，废除'劳动人民'这个称谓。你知道的，这里面有些建设性的想法。

I've been saying that for months. Make fairness to governing principle and I like this one, retire the term working people. You know, constructive ideas in there.

确实很棒。有几点要说。其一是，我很想和你深入探讨这个，因为他显然是在试图让我们摆脱某种特定的政治传播方式——这种方式你一直备受指责。比如卡梅伦和澳大利亚策略师林顿·克罗斯比就推行过类似的做法，强调统一口径。最让我痛苦的是像普丽蒂·帕特尔和利兹·特拉斯这样的政客，他们上电视时只会机械重复'长期经济计划正在奏效'之类的话，无论记者问什么。

Really lovely. Couple of things. One is that and I I'd love to to get into this a little bit with you because, of course, he's trying to say that we've gotta move off a particular version of political communication, which you've been blamed for. I mean, a sort of version of this was what Cameron did and and, Lynton Crosby, the Australian strategist, tried his drivers to do, which was all about lines to take. I mean, my most painful examples of this were people like Priti Patel and Liz Truss who would just go out on television and repeat again and again and again lines like, the long term economic plan is working and regardless of what the question was.

我记得有个视频里普丽蒂·帕特尔把同一句话重复了十五遍。记者都快崩溃了，而林顿·克罗斯比却说'太棒了，只有当这些话让你生理性不适时，才说明信息真的传达到了'。明白吗？这就是当时的荒谬逻辑。

I mean, I think there's one clip where I think Priti Patel does that sort of 15 times or something. So the journalist is kind of weeping, and Linton Crosby is saying, ah, this is terrific. It's only when it's actually making you physically sick that you know that the message is really getting through. Right? So there was this sort of idea.

对，他还提到另一个观点——现在我要说到更技术性的层面了——他对你朋友彼得·海曼的文章很感兴趣，那篇文章说'议程网格'已经失效了。这篇Substack文章很有见地，我们可以分享。当然，'网格'这个概念与你密切相关，它是指每周设定核心议题，比如这周主打缩短医疗等待时间，下周聚焦儿童教育等。但海曼认为应该摒弃这种做法。

Yeah. And there's another thing that he refers to in this, and I'm I'm now on the on the more of the, sort of mechanics of this, is he's very interested in your friend Peter Hyman's piece, which says the grid doesn't work anymore. So that was quite an interesting substack again, which we can share. And, of course, the grid, very much associated with you, was the idea that you would decide what the big story of the week is, and this week would be about our new investment in cutting waiting lists, and next week would be about starts for children and schools, etcetera. And Hyman's saying, no.

他认为应该从'网格'转向更灵活的'播放列表'模式：各部门明确核心议题，但可以周复一周地自由调整。因为传统层级分明的媒体环境已不复存在——过去大多数人会读报纸、看晚间新闻，社交媒体尚未兴起，每周还能主导议题。但现在数据显示，十年间不接触传统媒体的人群比例从11%飙升到了近33%。

No. We need to go away from a grid to more of a kind of playlist agenda where each department knows what its big themes are, but is given the freedom to return to it week in, week out because you can no longer rely on what you had, which was a relatively hierarchical media environment. You were still operating in a world in which many, many people read the newspaper. Many people watched the evening news, social media hadn't really got off the ground, and therefore, you could, to some extent, land the big story every week. Now we've gone from a world in which I think in ten years, I I the figure is something like we've gone from 11% of people not accessing any conventional media to nearly 33% of people not touching it ever Yeah.

总之就这两点：摆脱统一话术的桎梏，改革议程网格模式。想听听你如何诠释这种转变。

In their lives. Anyway, just on those two things, this this movement away from the sort of lines to take and a movement away from the grid and what you think about how how you'd articulate that.

没错。我多年来一直在说，现代政治陷入困境是因为我们被旧模式的成功束缚住了。我和彼得·海曼持相似观点：必须适应新媒体生态。关于议程网格——顺便说一句，我完全赞同他的看法。

Yeah. One of the things I've been saying for years is I think that a lot of modern politics is trapped because we were deemed to be successful. I think a lot of apologies is trapped in that old way of thinking. I've been arguing for, you know, on the similar lines to Peter Hyman for Jung's about we need to change and adapt to this new media landscape. So for, you know, on the grid, the grid by the way, I completely agree with him.

你必须明白，当前尤为重要的是，你必须有一本工作日志。你需要清楚各项事务的时间安排，但更重要的是，无论是作为内阁大臣、政府成员还是后座议员，你必须知道在宏观层面上，针对特定政策或议题应当传达什么核心信息？然后以你自己的方式表达出来。我认为，政治之所以令人生厌，部分原因就在于这种机械复述官方口径的做法。对我而言，所谓口径应该是实质性的论点。

You you need to know, far important now, of course, you have to have a diary. You have to know what's coming when, but you need to know as an individual minister or as a member of the government or as a backbench MP, what am I meant to be communicating in the most general sense about this particular policy, this particular argument? And then you have to do it in your own way. I actually think that one of the things that's turning people right off politics is this robotic lines to take thing. A line to take for me was an argument.

我之前可能说过——我曾严厉批评过一位大臣，因为她在接受采访后，我打电话给她时发现每个回答都在重复相同内容。她却说'是你们要求我们统一口径的'。不，传达相同信息不等于逐字重复。关键在于保持真实感。昨天我遇到一位从事战略策划与信息传播的业内人士，他的观点很有意思——他特别提到听过住房政策专家史蒂夫·里德的访谈，列举了包括里德、韦斯特·斯特里廷、彼得·凯尔、道格拉斯·亚历山大、丽莎·南迪等人在内，认为这些人的发言都值得倾听。

It wasn't I think I told you before about I once castigated a minister because I I phoned her up after she'd done an interview because she literally said the same thing in every answer and she said, but you told us to say the same thing. So no, communicate the same message. It's not say the same, literally say the same words. So that sense of authenticity and by the way, I was with a guy yesterday who works in kind of strategy and advertising and messaging and that sort of thing and he was really interesting because he he he listens to a lot of people. He actually was talking about an interview I'd heard with Steve Reid, the housing guy yesterday and he said, I've got to say, when you listen to them, he mentioned Steve Reid, West Streeting, Peter Kyle, Douglas Alexander, Lisa Nandy.

他列举了一大串名字后说：'这些人讲话确实有内容，我乐于倾听'。有趣的是，他特别欣赏那些不照本宣科的政客。我完全赞同这种转变。

He went through a whole load of them. He said, they're actually, they're good to listen to. I enjoy listening to them. And it was interesting, I think he was picking on the ones who don't sound quite so they're delivering the line. So I completely agree with it with with that change.

这也呼应了你先前的观点。当克里斯·克拉克的论文讨论选举策略时，开篇就强调'要敢于挑战公众舆论'。这恰恰是特朗普做得好的地方。

I also think this is something you alluded to earlier. When you when Chris Clarke's paper goes on to electoral strategy, the first point he makes is be willing to challenge public opinion. And, again, this is something that that Trump does well.

我一直痴迷于亚里士多德提出的三分法——他将沟通分为道德感召（气质）、情感共鸣（悲情）与政策实质（理性）。有意思的是，你们讨论的传播策略其实也涉及伦理层面。当你承认失误、坦承未知、阐明背景时，这本质上是诚实的表现。公众之所以受吸引，正是因为你展现出了担责态度，成为了更坦诚的人。

I'm always kind of obsessed with this me being very pretentious, that Aristotle has this great distinction between a communication, morality and the kind of policy content which he calls pathos, ethos, logos. Yeah. The interesting thing is that what he's talking about, I think, and what you're talking about in communications is also partly about ethics. Because if you're admitting your screw ups, admitting what you don't know, explaining the context, it's actually about honesty. There's actually something that is appealing to the public about it because it's the sense that you're taking responsibility, and you're you're being an a more honest person.

不过有个难题——可能我对此的反感比你更强烈。听众听完我们对迈克尔·戈夫的采访就会明白，我和很多人一样，对蕾切尔·里夫斯、布里奇特·菲利普斯乃至戈夫产生不满的原因相同：最令人厌恶的就是对方把对话变成政党宣传广播。这正是我的感受。

Now one of the challenges, though and and I think you know, I'm I'm perhaps more extreme than you in getting irritated by this. Listeners will listen to our interview with Michael Gove, and people, you know, often say, you know, I got irritated with Rachel Reeves and Bridget Phillips. I got irritated with Michael Gov for the same reason. There's nothing I hate more than when you're talking to someone, and they seem to be doing a sort of party political broadcast at you. And that's what I felt.

你看戈夫突然切换到以色列议题的官方说辞时，我就想：又来了，这根本不是真正的交流

You know, Gove suddenly slotted into talking on his talking points on Israel. I thought, here we go again, we're not really

我明白了，但我不同意你的观点。实际上我认为你当时相当苛刻，因为我觉得你更多是被他的观点激怒了。我也对他的观点感到恼火且不认同，但我觉得这很有趣，因为你生气地对他说‘迈克尔，你这二十年来一直在说这个’，而我在想，这正是关键——他对此深信不疑。所以我认为这是个糟糕的例子。我觉得蕾切尔·里夫斯...

I see, I don't agree with you there. I actually think you were being quite harsh there because he's I think it's more that you were irritated by what his views are. I'm irritated by his views and I don't agree with him but I thought it was fascinating because you were irritated by the fact that you said to him, Michael, but you've been saying this for the last twenty years and I was thinking, well that's the point, he really really believes this. Well So I I think that's a bad example. I I I think Rachel Reeves, I

也许这确实是个坏例子。但本质上，我认为我和大多数公众的感受相差不远——当政客没有真正触及对话核心，而是用略显老套的言辞以防御或攻击姿态应对时，确实会让人非常恼火。我同意你的看法。李·辛安迪做得很好，韦斯·斯特里廷也是，还有你提到的其他人。

Maybe it's maybe it's a bad example. But, essentially, I think I'm not a million miles away from a lot of the public by getting very, very wound up by the sense that the politician isn't really engaging with the nub of the conversation, but is trying to land a slightly tired line in a slightly defensive or aggressive fashion. I agree with you. Think Lee Sinandi does it well. I think Wes Streeting does it well and the others you've mentioned.

但我认为工党前排议员面临一个挑战，就是如何以真正自然投入的方式做到这一点。你常对我说他们私下表现比公开场合好得多。我对克里斯滕确实有这种感觉。每次有幸与他单独交谈时，我都会突然惊讶于他展现的自信、幽默和从容——尽管周遭一片混乱，但这些特质却未能传递出来。

But I think there is a challenge for some of the labor front bench in learning how to do this in a really natural engaged way. And and some of them, you often say to me that they're much better in private than they are in public. I definitely feel that with Kirsten. Right? Every time I'm lucky enough to catch him one on one, I'm sort of suddenly really struck by how confident he can be, how funny he can be, how relaxed he seems despite the kind of catastrophe surrounding him, and that somehow hasn't projected.

不过让我们借此机会，在讨论布里奇特·菲利普森对阵露西·鲍威尔（副党魁竞选）之前，再谈谈克里斯·克拉克的文章。他从传播策略转向政策讨论，而这里正是让我更焦虑的地方。或许这是我们能愉快分歧之处——他基本主张工党需要加税。我同意，但认为应该增加基础性广泛税种。

Let let's use this, though, maybe to do one more move on Chris Clark's piece before we get on to Bridgette Philipson against, Lucy Powell, which was the deputy leadership race. So he moves on from the comms to policy, and it's here that I get a little bit more anxious. So he and this is where maybe, you and I can disagree agreeably because maybe this is my Taurianist coming. He basically says that labor needs to tax more. I agree, but I think the tax they need to do is the big broad based traditional taxes.

他们应该提高所得税、国民保险或公司税。丹·尼德尔会赞同我，多数经济学家也会认同：愚蠢之处在于他们排除了最广泛可靠的收入来源。若转而追求没完没了的小伎俩——暴利税、财富税，而不触及基础税种，将是大错特错。说说你对财富税vs回归所得税的直觉看法。

They need to put up income tax or national insurance or corporation taxes. I think Dan Needle would agree with me. I think most of the economists would agree that the stupid thing is that they ruled out the most broad based, reliable revenue sources. And I think it would be a real mistake to start going for endless little gimmicky windfall taxes, wealth taxes, when they could be hitting the basic tax. Tell me about your instincts on wealth taxes against going back to income tax.

这不像宣言，而是篇相当长的深思熟虑的文章。他并非单人智库，但提出了一些非常有趣的观点。尤其值得一提的是——工党应该转向选择投票制，那将是项重大举措。

This isn't like a manifesto. It's like a fairly long thoughtful paper. He's not sort of he's not a he's not a he's not a one man think tank, but I think he's got some really interesting ideas. Not least, by the way, let's Labour should move towards an alternative vote system. That would be a big bold thing.

对此我强烈赞同。

Strong agreement on that.

我知道你同意这点。他基本上是在说税收问题，财政部的诱惑可能是选择小幅隐形增税来勉强通过。在当前背景下，这只会引发零星抗议却收效甚微。财政部应该转而重点征收土地税、房产税、遗产顶层税、资本利得税等大额财富税，这些税收远超填补财政黑洞所需。现在他接着说要专款专用，必须明确公示所有资金流向。

I know you agree on that. So he's he basically says on tax, the temptation for the exchequer may be to opt for small stealth taxes to get it across the line. In the current context, this will create pockets of uproar for minimal revenue. The Exchequer should instead focus on large wealth taxes on land, property, top layer of inheritance, capital gains etc, which raise significant money beyond that needed for the black hole. Now he then talks about you then have to hypothecate and make it absolutely clear all that's money going.

我不完全认同这个观点，但我赞同他说的——为填补财政缺口而增税或削减福利这种说辞简直乏味透顶。他还说不要死守竞选宣言。我认为他的意思是，在当前民粹主义环境下不必担心违背承诺。所以工党可能会在三大税种上失信，但更关键的是，与其简单归咎于保守党留下的财政黑洞，他主张应该停止空谈增长，聚焦生活成本。我们要多建住房，因为存在住房危机。

Now I don't know if I agree on that totally but I'll tell you what I do agree is where he says the idea that tax rises or welfare cuts are happening to satisfy an accounting shortfall is as uninspiring as it gets. And he also says don't obsess over the manifesto. What I think he means by that is don't worry in the current populist context about breaking promises. So I think Labour will break one of the break a promise on one of the three big taxes, but his point, the bigger point for me there is instead of just saying we're doing this because the Tories have left us a black hole, he's basically saying you've got to say, stop talking about growth is saying, focus on cost of living. We want to build more houses because there's a housing crisis.

我们要推动经济增长，因为生活成本危机影响着数百万人。换句话说，要以此为核心。虽然我不完全认同每个观点，但认可他的论述框架。

We want to get the economy growing because cost of living crisis is real for millions of people. In other words, root it in that. So I'm not sure I agree with every point, but I agree with the way that he's framed it.

但这将成为重大分歧点，我认为这将决定工党是保持中间路线还是转向左翼，并极大影响他们争取中间派前保守党选民的能力——取决于他们在这个问题上的抉择。如果按他说的做，就是等待。等待。这...这就是关键区别，对吧？

It is, however, gonna be a really big division, and I think it will determine whether the Labour Party stays in the center or migrates the left and will have a huge impact on Labour's ability to win over centrist former Tory voters, the decision that they make on this. If they do what he said, which is wait. Wait. Let let let let this is the big distinction. Right?

我同意你的观点，他们必须有大动作。必须突破宣言限制，还要讲好积极故事。但税种选择至关重要。如果采用他的方案——土地税、财富税——就等于明确宣告这是针对富人的政党，而且筹不到多少钱。这又是个问题。

If he does I agree with you on on the fact they have to be big. They have to break manifesto, and they have to have a positive story. But the type of tax they do really matters. If we go with his stuff, which is land tax, wealth tax, you are absolutely signaling this is a party going after the rich, and you won't raise much money. I mean, that's another problem.

他根本没核算过数据。这样会严重疏远富裕阶层，却筹不到多少资金。如果选择基础更广泛的税种——所得税、公司税、国民保险——再大胆推进早就该做的改革，比如合并国民保险和所得税，就能玩出些新花样。这样才能筹集重大事项所需资金，还能指定用途。

He hasn't looked at the maths on this. You will massively alienate wealth, and you won't raise much money. If you go for the broader based taxes, income tax, corporation tax, national insurance, And if you do something really bold, which needs to be done, which is bringing national insurance and income tax together, you could do some really interesting things. Then I think you can raise the revenue you need for the big stuff. You can hypothecate it.

你可以明确说这部分用于国防，那部分用于住房等等。这样做实际上不会得罪亲商群体。

You can say this is for defense. This is for housing. This is for whatever. And do it without actually alienating people who are pro business.

看吧，毫无疑问。我是说，过去几周我参加了几场商业活动，确实弥漫着一种低落的氛围。这一点毋庸置疑。我还要告诉你另一件事，你可能会惊讶，我对整个非本地居民税收问题已经转变了看法。

Look. And there's no doubt. I mean, I've I've done a few business type events in the last few weeks and, you know, there's a lot of kinda there's a grungy mood. There's no doubt about that. I'll tell you the other thing, this may surprise you to hear that I've sort of moved to the view on the whole non dom thing.

尽管我不认同所有人都逃往迪拜或米兰的说法，但确实有人这么做了。我认为他们应该考虑实行某种统一税率协议，就像意大利人做的那样——基本上是说：你来这里，每年支付30万欧元，其余收入可以保留，因为我们希望你留在这里。我觉得工党完全可以对他们说：50万英镑，这就是你全部要付的，这样他们就能...你知道...在这方面做些相当聪明的安排。

Even though I don't buy the idea that everybody sort of, you know, has fled to Dubai and fled to Milan, some people have And what I think they should think about is doing a kind of flat tax deal because that's what the Italians have done. They're basically saying, look, you come here, you pay €300,000 a year, and you can keep the rest as it were because we want you to be here. I think labor could get away with saying to them, like, know, half a million and that's all that you're paying, and you can so they they can do something, you know, quite clever on that.

他们需要勇气这么做，因为...我完全同意你的观点，但在预算案前他们必须沉住气。你说得对，可以要求这些人每人支付50万英镑来换取居留权，并说明这笔钱的用途，但这仍将面临工党左翼的阻力。关键问题是：基拉和瑞秋·里维斯能否做到两件事？第一，愿意违背他们的竞选承诺（这是必须的）——

They need courage to do that because that's that's I mean, I couldn't agree with you more, but they've got to take a deep breath before this budget. And you're absolutely right. You can say we're getting each one of these people to give us half a million pounds to stay and describe what all that money will do and what it'll and but it will still involve a bit of a fight with the left of the Labour Party. And this is where the the the question has to be, is Keira and Rachel Reeves are they gonna be able to do two things? Number one, be willing to break their manifesto commitments, which they have to do.

第二，以让更多亲市场、亲商业人士安心的方式实现。第二点，他谈到产业战略。这里我再次想听听你的看法。他提出必须为以下四类城镇制定旗舰产业战略，每个城镇分配一个未来产业，比如软件设计或绿色能源。

And number two, do it in a way that reassures more pro market, pro business people. Second thing, he talks about industrial strategy. And here again, I I'd be interested in your view. He says there must be flagship industrial strategies for each of the following four types of town. Each could be assigned an industry of the future, like software design or green power.

我赞同他的产业政策理念，但具体做法完全错误。不该由白厅的某个天才来指定——'你们搞绿色能源'，'你们搞软件'——

Now I agree with him on industrial policy, but it's completely the wrong way to do industrial policy. It shouldn't be some genius in Whitehall assigning. You know? You are now doing green power. You are now doing software.

这必须关乎权力下放。我们在反伯纳姆访谈中就看到他们做得很好。我在坎布里亚的实际感受是：问题在于伦敦根本不懂这些经济体的运作逻辑。如果把预算和权力下放到地方，让他们自主推动，远比某个智者指定'这四个产业归你们'更可能形成好的产业战略。

It's gotta be about devolution, and and that's what we found with the anti Burnham interview that they're doing so well. And I'm actually it's what I felt in Cumbria that, actually, the problem is that London doesn't instinctively understand how these economies work, and it's much more likely to get a good industrial strategy if you give the budget and the power down to the local area and let them drive it rather than some wise person say, here are four industries. You get this one.

没错。我喜欢他关于'需要制定商业街未来愿景'的观点。我确实认为他说得对：我们必须继续在清洁能源问题上保持进步立场——这将是另一场重大政治斗争。要主动迎接这场斗争，别再畏首畏尾。

Yeah. I like his stuff about, you know, we need to develop a vision for the future of high streets. I actually do believe he's right to say that we need to continue to be progressive on clean energy, and that is another big political fight. Engage in that big political fight. Stop being defensive about it.

公平地说，我不认为埃德·米利班德对此持防御态度。你之前提到的另一点是必须小心不要疏远中间派、市场人士和商界等。但我长期以来的观点——卡菲利事件和工党现状印证了这一点——就是移民问题确实存在。我们稍后会讨论这个问题。是的，小型船只问题让人抓狂。

To be fair to Ed Miliband, I don't think he is defensive about it. And the other thing you said earlier about you've got to be careful not to alienate the centrist, the market people, the business community etc. But I've been saying for so long now and this I think is what's borne out by what happened in Caerphilly, by the general sense of where labor are right now, is that yes, there is a real issue with immigration. We'll come on to talk about that. Yes, small boats drive people crazy.

是的，庇护酒店问题让人抓狂，这些必须解决。但绝不能让你的整个政府给人留下只关注这些的印象，因为他们流失中间偏左选民的速度远快于中间偏右选民，而这正是帮助普莱德赢得补选的原因。关键在于，如果要推行重大税务政策，这份预算案至关重要。如果像克里斯·克拉克所说，只是这里修修补补那里小打小闹来填补财政黑洞，这绝非国家愿景。国家当前需要的是已部署好的政治斗争，而吉尔吉斯斯坦议题就是在党代会上设定的。

Yes, the asylum hotels drive people crazy, and you've got to fix those. But what you cannot do is allow your entire government to give the sense that that is what you're about because they are losing way more support to the left of center than they are to the right of center, and that is what has helped Plyde win that by election. And and the thing is if you're doing something, say big on tax, this budget is gonna be so important. If it just feels like, as Chris Clark says, that they're making a few small changes here and small changes there to fill this black hole, that is not a vision for the country. And what the country needs right now, they've got the political fight in place, and Kyrgyzstan was set that at the party conference.

改革党现在是主要政敌，这是政治层面的斗争。经济层面我认为必须与之关联。要为未来制定真正宏大的规划。我喜欢他关于新工党机构的构想——GB能源公司这些，还有他们能发展的心理健康中心。他还提到要整合心理健康护理、社会护理等需要资金投入的领域。

Reform is now the main political enemy, and that is the fight that goes on politically. Economically, I think it's got to be related to that. Big, bold really big stuff for the future. I love this thing about you know the institutions, big new labor institutions, GB Energy, you know he put them all the sort of you know there's some of these mental health hubs they can develop in these things. And then he said, you know, wrap around mental health care, social care, stuff that is gonna cost money.

如果要在预算案中推行重大增税政策，就必须明确说明用途，而且要真正能激发民众热情。

If you're gonna do big tax raising stuff in a budget, you've got to say, and this is what we're gonna do with it, and it's gotta it's gotta really kind of fire people up.

我认为他撰写这篇文章很棒，因为定位精准且问题切中要害。我还有个担忧是工党必须务实看待绿色政策，可能需要更灵活些。埃德·米利班德可能把他们带得太远，需要做些妥协。不是放弃应对气候变化的信念，不是放弃推动可再生能源，但现行方式存在问题，确实可能疏远民众并推高生活成本。

Well, I'm I think it's so good that he's written this because he's in just the right territory and asking just the right questions. If I had one more anxiety, I think labor's gonna have to be realistic about its green policy. I think there may need to be a bit more pragmatism. I think that Ed Miliband may be leading them in a direction that's going too far, and they may need to get some compromises going there. Not give up on their belief in addressing climate, not give up on their push on renewable energy, but there's a loss of the way in which it's being done, which really risks alienating people and driving up cost of living.

所以他们必须审视这个问题。

So I think they've got to look at that.

但罗里，我们录制时全球新闻几乎都在疯狂报道即将袭击牙买加的梅丽莎飓风。现实是进步派在这些重大议题上失去了信心，气候问题就是其中之一，我们必须赢得这场辩论。克里斯·克拉克在沟通策略上提出的四点：必须放弃粉饰，向选民完全坦诚；选举策略要突出自身主张而非攻击对手；政策制定要超越现有选项——他称之为'放下花瓶'策略。

But also, Rory, we are recording this with virtually every news bulletin around the world reporting breathlessly on this hurricane Melissa that is about to take out part of Jamaica. What's happened, the progressives have lost their confidence in some of these big debates, and one of them is on climate, and I think we've got to win it. And what Chris Clark's basically saying on these four areas on communication, he says the Mingvas is has got to be dropped because we've now got to go for a warts and all approach leveling with voters. On the electoral strategy, it's gotta be about a positive sense of what you stand for rather than just what how bad the others are. On policy, it's putting down he says, putting down the vase means going beyond current choices.

关于移民政策，我再次认为他说的非常明智且切中要害。那些对小船偷渡和庇护酒店问题感到愤怒的人，不会因为你说要减少大学教授家属移民数量就对你刮目相看。数字游戏毫无意义——净移民数虽已下降，但舆论风向并未改变。

And on migration policy. I again, I thought there was very something very clever he said and sensible he said there. Somebody who is angered about small boats and asylum hotels is not going to be impressed because you say that you're going to cut down on the number of family members coming with university professors. The numbers game is making no difference. Net migration has fallen, the debate has not changed.

你们必须解决实际问题，但不能用'这里砍一刀那里砍一刀'的方式毁掉经济未来。

You've got to fix the things that are problems, but then don't ruin the future of the economy by saying, oh, we're gonna cut here and cut there and cut there.

好吧，你这话有点激我深入讨论气候议题了。我认为问题在于英国选民都清楚：应对全球气候变化本质上是国际事务，英国单方面减排影响有限。如果我们生活成本和能源价格因此大幅上涨，而其他国家却无动于衷，这不仅是政治问题——

Yeah. Okay. I mean, you you you slightly, provoke me there into something that's gonna be a longer conversation, which is on the climate stuff. I I think there is a problem here, and the problem is that the British voter knows that in the end, addressing global climate change is about global issues, that Britain on its own is a pretty small contributor. And if the cost of, living goes up and the cost of our energy goes up very significantly, for us chasing reducing our emissions when other people in the world isn't, that's going to be not just a political problem.

更会成为民众面临的现实困境，人们会质问：你们到底在搞什么名堂？

It's gonna be a very practical problem for people, and they're gonna say, what the hell do you think you're doing?

没错。下半场我们会讨论普京问题，你也明白这些不仅是国内议题，更是产生本土影响的国际问题。总之很高兴你喜欢那篇论文，我也深有共鸣，我们需要更多这样的思考。

Right. We're gonna be talking about Putin in the second half and you also know that these are not just domestic issues but they're international issues that have a domestic effect. Anyway, think it's a I'm glad you enjoyed that that paper. I did as well and I think we need more of that kind of thinking as well.

我最欣赏的是他对商业街振兴和成人社会关怀的关注。但实现这些必须跨党派合作，不仅是工党的任务。不过最令我钦佩的是他坚决主张：工党应以留在《欧洲人权公约》为荣，绝不该动退出的念头。

The big thing that I love most, I I really love the high street stuff, Regenerate High Street, really loved, the focus on adult social care. But, of course, to get it done, it's gonna have to be cross party, not just a labor issue. But the thing I like most of all was his absolute insistence that labor should be proud of remaining part of the ECHR and should not remotely be tempted to leave the European Convention on Human Rights.

现在说说新任工党副领袖露西·鲍威尔——投票率极低，实际投票者不足五分之一。坦白说，我原以为她会以更大优势胜出。正如民众想给建制派工党领导层点颜色看看，我以为党内也是如此。顺便解释下低投票率：工党投票机制特殊，许多成员通过附属组织获得投票权，甚至可能不知道自己有资格投票。通常副党魁选举会与党魁选举同期举行，那时投票率更高。但这也再次提醒政府：绝不能把左翼支持视为理所当然。

Now Lucy Powell, new deputy leader of the labor party, very low turnout, fewer than one in five actually voted. I actually thought, if I'm being absolutely frank, I thought she was going to win by more because I think that just as the public has been wanting to give a bit of a kicking to the labor leadership in the establishment, I thought the party was as well. Just on the turnout, by the way, you've got to understand the way the Labour Party works. A lot of people get a vote through association membership of organizations, may not even know that they had a vote, and also usually a deputy leadership contest will take place alongside a leadership contest where the voting is likely to be higher. But again, I think it's just another sign that the government needs to understand you cannot take the left of you for granted.

你必须专注于有效治理和竞选，但归根结底，我认为卡菲利事件和露西·鲍威尔事件都在传递同一个信息——我们需要更多情感共鸣。我们需要更清晰地感知国家叙事，国家故事。我认为摩根·斯威尼的竞选策略非常有效，它完全围绕目标选民展开。但这种策略第二次就不管用了。

You've got to be just sort of you know, you've got to be focused on governing well, campaigning well but ultimately I think what both of these things are saying, both the Caerphilly and the Lucy Powell thing, they're basically saying we want more emotional connection. Connection. We want more of a sense of what the national narrative, what the national story is and I think that the Morgan Sweeney strategy for the for the election was very very effective. It was all about, you know, where you're targeting the votes and so forth. That's not gonna work second time around.

你需要一个宏大、大胆、积极的议程。就像基尔·斯塔默在党代会的演讲，你开始搭建框架，但我反复提到的学徒制问题呢？这明明是演讲中的重头戏，却几乎无人提及。这本该是党代会上领导人讲话宣布的重要事项，为什么我们听不到后续跟进？

You need this big, bold, positive agenda and, you know, and I said I thought of Keir Starmer's party conference speech, you started to get the framing for it but then, you know, I mentioned, I keep mentioning this thing about apprenticeships. I've still heard next to nothing about this was the big thing in the speech. This is the point about, you know, that's not a grid point, that's like this is meant to be one of our big things announced in the leader's speech at the party conference. Why are we not hearing about it all the time?

前半部分非常精彩，我们已经讨论了不少内容。现在稍作休息，回来后我想听听你刚去过的波兰见闻。休息后继续。

I I think that was a great first half. We already got into some stuff there. I think we'll take a break, and then we'll come back. And I I wanna hear about Poland where you've just been. So you after the break.

太好了，待会见。本节目由我们的老朋友NordVPN赞助播出。

Great. See you then. This episode is brought to you by our old friend NordVPN.

十一月是折扣月，也是数字风险月。当你寻找优惠时，可能有人在窥探你的数据。NordVPN让你的浏览安全无忧——当价格下跌防火墙失效时，你的数据依然固若金汤。

November, the month of deals, discounts, digital danger. As you hunt for bargains, someone else might be hunting your data, and NordVPN keeps your browsing serene. As prices fall and firewalls fail, your data stays secure.

轻点一键即可全加密。无论你用的是联合政府时期的老密码（比如'克莱格2010'）的公共WiFi，还是网络安全仅靠黑板上一个模糊单词的咖啡馆，Nord的威胁防护系统都能拦截恶意链接并扫描下载内容。

One tap and everything is encrypted. Whether you're using public WiFi with a password from the coalition years like Clegg twenty ten or a cafe whose cybersecurity amounts to an illegible word on a blackboard, Nord's threat protection probe blocks malicious links and scans downloads.

不止是隐私保护。NordVPN还能防止价格欺诈——航空公司和零售商常根据用户地理位置暗中调价。但有了NordVPN，你的真实消费不再被算法操控。

And it's not just privacy. Nord keeps things honest. Airliners and retailers quietly change costs based on your location. But with NordVPN, your shopping in the real world is not one shaped by algorithms.

一个账号可保护多达10台设备，包括你的手机、笔记本电脑、智能电视，甚至全家人的设备。或者安装在路由器上，就能自动覆盖整个房子。

And one account protects up to 10 devices. That's your phones, your laptops, even your smart TV, and your family thrown in. Or install it on your router so the whole house is covered automatically.

要获取NordVPN套餐的最佳折扣，请访问nordvpn.com/restispolitics。选择两年计划还可额外获赠四个月服务，并享30天退款保证。链接在节目描述中。

To get the best discount on your NordVPN plan, head to nordvpn.com/restispolitics. You'll also get four extra months free on the two year plan plus a thirty day money back guarantee. The link's in the episode description.

大家好，我是Gary Linica。我想向大家推荐Goal Hanger团队推出的精彩新书《The Rest is Quiz》——这个团队正是爆款播客《The Rest is Politics》的幕后制作人。

Hi. It's Gary Linica here, and I want to tell you about a fantastic new quiz book from Goal Hanger, the team behind the Smash Hit podcast. The rest is entertainment. The rest is history. The rest is politics.

《The Rest is Quiz》包含1000多道精彩题目，让你与亲友一较高下。10月1日至31日期间，使用代码REST2025（注意R是大写）可在Waterstones以半价预购。

The rest is classified, and, of course, the rest is football. The rest is quiz is packed with over 1,000 brilliant questions to test your trivia knowledge against your friends and family. And from October 1 to the thirty first, you'll be able to preorder a copy from Waterstones for half price using the code REST two zero two five. REST twenty twenty five. Capital r, that is.

现在即可通过Waterstone预购Goalhanger的《The REST is Quiz》，使用大写R开头的代码REST2025。欢迎回到《The Rest is Politics》节目。

Preorder your copy of the REST is Quiz by Goalhanger from Waterstone using the code REST with a capital r two zero two five now. Welcome back to the rest of politics.

我是Alastair Campbell。我是Rory Stewart。

With me, Alastair Campbell. And with me, Rory Stewart.

Rory，我们提到的很多内容都会放进新闻通讯里。对于没订阅的听众，请告诉他们可以访问restispolitics.com获取——如果你是我们的会员，还能订阅收听我们即将完结的系列节目，比如关于默多克的第四集。你也能提前收听我们早前讨论中提到的与迈克尔·戈夫访谈的第二部分，有位泳池边的听众朋友今早还称赞他真是个聪明人。

And, Rory, we did a lot of references to things that we're going to put in the newsletter. So to those who don't get the newsletter, we should tell them you get it by going to the restispolitics.com and that's where you also, if you're interested, can subscribe if you're a member and listen to things like, the series that we're almost through. I think we're up to part four on the series of Rupert Murdoch. You can also get early access to the part two of our interview with Michael Gove that you referenced in the earlier discussion which is a fascinating listener. But my friend Jim in the swimming pool said this morning, said what a clever guy.

多么可悲的人才浪费。然后，最后你可以在politics.com上查看剩余信息，现在数量非常非常少，我们几乎售罄了所有场馆，不过还剩少量门票，巡演将前往曼彻斯特、格拉斯哥、伯恩茅斯和伦敦。简单说几句，Rory，在讨论波兰之前，或许值得提一下爱尔兰新总统凯瑟琳·康诺利，我认为这与我们上半场讨论的内容相呼应。独立左翼，获得新芬党、工党等左倾政党支持，采用非常真实的沟通方式——比如和孩子们打篮球，对加沙及她所称的加沙种族灭绝问题极其直言不讳。再次说明，投票率相对较低。

What a tragic waste of talent. And then and then the final thing you can check out on the rest is politics.com is the very, very small numbers now, and we're almost sold out all the venues, think, but there are a few tickets left for our tour going to Manchester, Glasgow, Bournemouth, and London. Very briefly, Rory, before we get on to Poland, maybe just worth clocking the new president of Ireland, Catherine Connolly, and I think this speaks to what we're speaking in the first half. Independent, left wing, got the backing of Sinn Fein, the Labour Party, the left leaning parties, very kind of authentic form of communication, running around playing basketball with kids, very very very outspoken on Gaza and what she calls the genocide in in Gaza. Again, reasonably low turnout.

这是个仪式性职位，但很重要，因为爱尔兰总统能塑造某些东西。不过我认为这只是其中一部分。但听着，我们该谈谈波兰了吗？

It's it's a ceremonial position, but it's an important one because, you know, the Irish presidency can can shape something. So but I think it's part of that. But listen. Should we talk about Poland?

是的。上周六我们采访了波兰副总理兼外交部长拉达克·西科尔斯基，当时你也在波兰。而且你会在波兰待几天。

Yeah. On Saturday, we were interviewing Radak Sikorsky, the Polish deputy prime minister, foreign minister, and you were in Poland. And you're in Poland for a few days.

是的。

I was.

让我从波兰最让我感兴趣的一点开始说起。如果回溯到1989年，要你预测中东欧哪些国家会开始倾向民粹主义，你很可能不会选波兰，因为从很多方面看，波兰是后89时期真正的成功典范。柏林墙倒塌后，波兰经济出人意料地快速恢复：货币稳定、债务下降。

And let let me sort of begin with this the sort of big thing that sort of interests me about Poland. So if you go back to 1989 and you were trying to choose which countries in Central And Eastern Europe would start flirting with populism, you probably wouldn't have selected Poland because Poland, in many ways, is the real big success story of the post '89 period. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Poland actually sorted out its economy surprisingly quickly. Currency stabilized. Debt came down.

经济开始腾飞，从欧洲最穷国家之一迅速迈向最富裕国家行列，而且其亲西方的天主教人口从未真正接受过共产主义及其代表的一切。所以如果让我预测，我会赌不是波兰，而是罗马尼亚、保加利亚、斯洛伐克甚至克罗地亚或拉脱维亚这些国家会走上民粹主义道路。然而最终却是欧洲的成功典范波兰，在2015年随着法律与公正党开启了十年民粹主义统治，尽管图斯克领导的较温和派获胜，他们仍把总统重新推上台。该你说了。

Growth took off. It went from being one of the poorest countries in Europe to rapidly on its path to becoming one of the wealthiest, and it did so with a pretty pro Western Catholic population that was never very into communism or anything it represented. So I I would have bet if I was just sort of looking at it that it wouldn't be Poland. It would be instead somewhere like Romania or somewhere like Bulgaria or Slovakia or even Croatia or Latvia that would have found themselves going down the populist route, instead of which it was the great European success story, Poland, that in 2015 embarked with the Law and Justice Party on ten years of populism populism and has just brought her president back in despite the victory of Donald Tusk on the less popular side. Over to you.

确实，这无疑让政治局势复杂化了。我们采访拉迪克·西科尔斯基时问到过这个问题有多棘手——特朗普邀请了他们在总统选举中的对手，而这位对手最终以微弱优势胜出。所以特朗普是否某种程度上助推了选票？很难说。

Yeah. Of course that definitely complicates politics and you know when we were talking to Radix Sikorsky, we were asking about you know how difficult this is, the fact that Donald Trump invited their opponent for the presidential election who eventually won and fairly narrowly. So you know did Trump kind of push the votes over? I don't know. It's hard to tell.

但那确实是个引人入胜的时刻。我与西科斯基同台演讲，还有个叫乔治·克鲁尼的家伙人气比我们俩加起来还高——他出现在那里也纯属偶然。最有趣的两点是：首先唐纳德·图斯克当时正在主持政党大会，他们因联盟失去一名成员又新增两名而更改党名。他用极其尖锐的言辞谈论政治是善恶之争，甚至引用教皇言论，还以英国脱欧为例，说俄罗斯水军参与其中，有俄罗斯资金介入，庆祝脱欧的正是俄罗斯人。

But it it was a fascinating time to be there. I was speaking at the same conference as Sikorsky and a man who was getting bigger crowds of the pair of us put together George Cluelly, who was rather randomly there as well. But what was two really interesting things. The first is that simultaneously Donald Tusk was heading a party convention where they were changing the name of his party because their coalition had lost one member and they were bringing two new ones in. And he spoke in really stark terms about he talked about politics being a fight between good and evil, quoted the Pope in those terms, referred to Brexit as an example of where you know it's saying the Russian bots were involved, Russian money was involved, it was the Russians who were celebrating.

他在周末访谈中提到——我认为不止是暗示——针对克里斯海默住宅的燃烧弹袭击及其车辆遭破坏事件，确信是俄罗斯情报机构所为。我推测图斯克要么知情，要么就是通过某些同样向我透露过消息的人士获知。英国政府可能决定不公开此事——我不确定这个决定是否正确，公众理应知晓这类事件。

He said in an interview over the weekend that he referred to the suggestions which I think are more than suggestions that these attacks on Kyrstheimer's house, the fire bomb and attacks on his cars that he'd owned and that this was the work of Russian intelligence. Now I imagine that Donald Tusk either knows that or has been told that, probably by some of the same people that have mentioned that to me. I think the British government, I don't know, but my sense is they maybe took a decision not to go too public on that. I'm not sure that was the right decision. I actually think the public need to know this sort of stuff's going on.

当然相关涉案人员的诉讼仍在进行。但图斯克直言：当你的首相因家属住所遭俄情报机构攻击而受实质威胁，媒体却像报道利物浦对阿森纳球赛般轻描淡写——'他们这样做，他们那样说'，这种情形极其荒诞。

Of course there is a court case that I think has been ongoing involving some of the people involved. But Tusk basically said to have a situation where your prime minister is under what amounts to an attack because that's where members of his family were living, from Russian intelligence and to have your media basically cover this like it was a football match between Liverpool and Arsenal, you know, oh, well, they did this and they did that and he says this and he says that, it was very very strange.

我们持续面临的核心困境在于——尤其在假新闻和疯狂抖音视频泛滥的新环境下——媒体谨慎报道是因为这听起来像疯狂阴谋论。'俄罗斯情报机构为何要烧克里斯蒂玛的房子？'所以政府难题在于如何举证。英国媒体会彻底失控，我认为图斯克这观点是错误的。

One of the I think one of the problems we'll keep facing is and it's it's it's particularly true in this new environment, of fake news and crazy TikTok videos, is that the reason, of course, the media is cautious about covering it is it sounds like mad conspiracy theory. You know, what is Russian intelligence doing setting fire to Kirstjama's house? So I guess part of the government's problem is how do you mount the evidence? I mean, I I think the British press would go bananas. I mean, I I think Tusk is wrong about this.

如果英国媒体不认为这是阴谋论假新闻，而是确有证据表明俄对外情报局袭击了克里斯·帕默的住宅，这事早就铺天盖地了。问题在于假新闻时代我们难以判断真实性，更不知该呈现什么证据。

If the British press didn't think this was sort of conspiracy theory fake news, but that there was genuine evidence that the SVR, the Foreign Intelligence Service, had attacked Kirst Palmer's own house, we would be hearing about nothing else. I think the problem is that we don't really know in this world of fake news whether this is true, how true it is, and what evidence to put forward.

这又回到我们先前的讨论：媒体对基尔·斯塔默的负面报道氛围太浓，他们可能不愿报道会引发公众同情的内容。但罗伊，就在上周英国法庭判决五名纵火犯——当局称这是俄情报机构策划的。民调显示、西科尔斯基所言、图斯克强调、所有波兰人告诉我的都是：这种破坏行动——比如他们随时准备瘫痪交通和医疗系统——同样可能发生在我们身上。图斯克还提到那些能打到英国的高超音速导弹。虽然不想夸大，但英国对此讨论之匮乏令他们震惊。

Well, think there's also a sense, this goes back to what we talked about earlier, is that there's such a sort of media driven mood of negativity about Kierst Harwood that maybe they don't like things that make people feel might feel sympathetic towards him. But by the way, Roy, just just last week in a British court, five men were sentenced for an arson attack that authority in Britain, that authorities say was masterminded by Russian intelligence. So what we know, and this is what the polls are saying, what Sikorsky was saying, what Tusk was saying, what everybody in Poland was saying to me, is that this disruption, sabotage, they were talking for example about they are prepared any moment for their transport systems and health systems to be brought down and they can do the same to us. And they're also Tuske was talking about these hypersonic missiles that can, you know, that can now kind of, you know, land in Britain. I don't want to kind of overstate it, but they are shocked by how under have underpowered this debate is in The UK.

我们算激烈达成共识吧。但我想指出俄情报机构的伎俩就是故意采用混合式、模棱两可、可抵赖的攻击手段。从2014克里米亚'小绿人'到外包给私企的网络攻击，俄对外情报局始终让所有人陷入猜测的迷雾中。你永远无法百分百确定'就是这名克格勃军官放火烧了房子'。

Well, suppose we're violently agreeing, but the point that I'm making is that one of the tricks of Russian intelligence is the deliberate use of hybrid, ambiguous, deniable attacks. What the SVR is very, very clearly doing all the way back to the little green men who popped up in Crimea in 2014 and true of the way they do cyberattacks, which is to contract it to private companies to do it, is they want continually to leave everybody in an ambiguous world of guessing. So it they're never obviously in a world in which you can fully say 100% for sure this is an officer in the KGB who just set fire to the house.

不。而且，我最近和这个世界上的某个人聊天时，对方提到他们有时会游走于司法系统的底层，找些愿意为钱办事的地痞无赖，事后可以完全撇清关系。西科尔斯基在采访中强调的重点是，他们现在制定的战略是让乌克兰战争再持续至少两三年，认为这段时间足以拖垮普京，同时打击其经济。但我觉得他们也在担忧西方世界——比如美国和西欧——会逐渐失去兴趣和决心。所以他们似乎在刻意煽动我们，提醒大家必须更严肃对待此事。

No. And also, I was talking to somebody in this world the other recently who said that, you know, they spend some of their time just sort of, you know, wandering around our lower, the lower end of our court system, you know, finding a few thugs or crooks who will do things for them for which they'll get paid a bit of cash and then they're utterly deniable. So that now so I I the big point they were making, Sikorsky said this in the interview, is they are now planning on a strategy that this war in Ukraine is going to go on for at least another two or three years and they think Putin can be worn down during that time, that his economy can be targeted etc. But at the same time I think one of their worries is that the rest of the West as it were, America, the Western Europe, just lose interest and lose the will. So they I think are deliberately trying to fire us up to say, hey guys, you need to take this more seriously than you are.

我认为他们觉得政府是认真的，但不确定民意是否如此。关键在于普京为适应这场斗争所做的政治调整。总理和总统都手握重权，能互相掣肘，这将是值得关注的焦点。另外罗伊提到的成功之处很有趣——那个国家因为自我认同感强，虽然我只短暂停留，但能感受到一种难得的从容氛围。

I think they think the government is taking it seriously but they're not convinced that our public opinion is. So I think it was those two things, the the political changes that he's having to make to adapt to this sort of struggle. And it will be interesting to see how things play out because the prime minister has a lot of power, the president has a lot of power to kind of make life difficult for the president, for the prime minister and that's kind of what I think we've got to watch there. And the other thing, Roy, you talked about the success. It was just really interesting to be in a country that maybe because they do feel this, it felt very because I was only there a few days but it felt like a country quite at ease with itself.

整个国家比印象中现代化得多，交通便利、环境整洁，处处充满出乎意料的活力。当我们问西科尔斯基‘要求民众接受削减开支来维持5%的国防GDP占比时，会遇到政治阻力吗？’

It feels a lot more modern than it did. The transport is good. It was really clean. There was a sense of kind of energy about the place that I hadn't maybe expected. And when we said to Sikorsky, do you have any political trouble in in telling people they're gonna have to cut some things because you're putting five percent into in of your GDP into defense?

他的回答是：‘如果我们不这么做，才会真正惹上麻烦。’

He said the trouble we would get is if we weren't doing that.

但这里存在一个悖论：我们曾为法律与公正党的败选松口气——这个散布阴谋论、恐吓高校、操控媒体、安插亲信入法院的民粹政党终于被图斯克击败，当时似乎是反民粹主义的重要转折点。

There's still something though which is a paradox, which is that we were all very relieved when the Law and Justice Party, which was a conspiratorial fake news populist party that was intimidating the universities, taking over the media, stacking the courts with political appointees, was finally defeated by Donald Tusk in the elections, and it seemed like a really good moment for a move against populism.

是啊。

Yeah.

可正如你指出的，由于波兰总统权力很大且仍由民粹派把持，图斯克难以推进改革。这背后是东西部的根本分歧：西部亲西方反民粹，东部则盛行阴谋论、民粹主义和威权思想，形成五五开的对峙局面。还有个历史因素：二战前波美拉尼亚等西部地区本属德国，战后苏联强占波兰东部领土，波兰被迫西迁，过程中发生了事实上的种族清洗——不知听众能否帮我更深入理解这点？

But then as you've just pointed out, they're totally paralyzed now because, actually, the president in in Poland is is pretty powerful, and the populists have now got that presidency still. So Tusk isn't really able to drive through these reforms, and part of this seems to be a very fundamental division between the West of the country and the East of the country, with the West of the country being more pro West and more anti populist in the East of the country, much more into these conspiracy theories, populism, authoritarianism, and a real sense for fifty fifty balance. And and there's something else that, you know, maybe a a listener can help me understand. The West of the country, places like Pomerania, were, of course, before the Second World War, very much integrated into Germany. And in fact, the story at the end of the Second World War is that effectively Russia helped itself to a lot of what used to be Eastern Poland, and Poland pushed further west and in the process did this, basically, ethnic cleansing.

500万德国人被驱逐出波兰。乌克兰人也被赶出波兰。当然，更早之前，波兰庞大的犹太社区在大屠杀中惨遭杀害，随后许多人移民他乡。因此现在生活在波兰西部的居民，很多是相对近期从现今俄罗斯领土迁来的移民。所以图斯克和西科尔斯基所依赖的这个选民基础截然不同——这片前多元民族地区如今主要由波兰人主导，而这些波兰人的祖辈原本并不居住于此。

5,000,000 Germans were pushed out of Poland. Ukrainians were pushed out of Poland. Earlier, of course, the very large Jewish community in Poland had been murdered through the Holocaust, and then many people emigrated. So that many of the people living in Western Poland are relatively recent migrants who came from what are now Russian territories. And so it's a totally different the this base that Tusk and, Sikorsky are relying on is a very interesting area of former multi ethnic territories now dominated often by Poles whose grandparents weren't originally in those areas.

我很好奇的是：当数百万人迁移并定居新土地时，这种人口流动如何影响政治生态？以及这些人投票支持反民粹主义是否纯属巧合？

And I'd I'd be interested in whether this question of what happens when millions of people move and settle a new land, how that affects your politics and whether it's just a coincidence that those are people who are voting anti populist.

确实。还有件事——在英国脱欧酝酿期间，虽然我们有许多波兰建筑工人（目前英国仍有约80万波兰人），但不少人已返回波兰。包括西科尔斯基在内的几位人士特别强调要让我明白：波兰的生活水平即将超越英国。另一个有趣现象是，我们在丹麦、塞浦路斯等地都明显感受到——欧盟国家非常怀念英国。图斯克在《星期日泰晤士报》采访中表示，他仍欣赏并尊重卡梅伦，但证实了我长期以来的猜测。

Yeah. The other thing was, you know, during the whole, the build up to Brexit, there were Polish builders and although we had so many polls, I think we still got about 800,000 polls in Britain. But a lot of polls have gone back and several people including Sikorsky were very keen to make sure that I left the place knowing that Poland is is on track to surpass The UK in terms of living standards. The other thing that's really interesting, you know, we got this a little bit talking to people in Denmark, we got it in Cyprus, we got it in other places, the extent to which countries inside the European Union really really miss The UK. And Tusk did an interview in the Sunday Times where he said, that he still likes and respects David Cameron, but he confirmed something that I've long suspected.

那篇采访极具洞察力，他坦言认为脱欧是我们共同历史上最严重的错误之一。但他说卡梅伦当时让他别担心：'就算公投通过，我们也能赢，因为经济站在我们这边；况且我可能无法获得多数席位，必须再次与自民党组建联合政府，他们会阻止公投。'图斯克表示无法理解如此重大的历史事件竟被如此轻率对待。但他们都感叹：'天啊，我们确实想念英国。'

Basically, it was a very kind of insightful revealing interview but he basically said that he thought Brexit was one of the biggest mistakes in our shared history but he said that Cameron told him not to worry. If it happens, we'll win it because we'll have the economy on our side and in any event, I probably won't get a majority. I'll have to have another coalition with the Lib Dems and they'll block the referendum. And he said he couldn't understand how something as historic could be kind of weighed up in that somewhat cavalier fashion. But they were all saying, God, you know, we do miss The UK.

波兰正在成为超级大国啊！如果要做简报内容的话——英国有不少关于波兰的精彩著作：诺曼·戴维斯、亚当·扎莫伊斯基，还有我的最爱马克·马佐尔的《黑暗大陆：二十世纪欧洲史》。但你说得对，我们现在关注的是波兰。

It's becoming such a superpower, isn't it? Small reference if we're doing stuff for the newsletter, Some great writing, obviously, in in Britain about Poland. Norman Davis, Adam Zomoyski, and and my great favorite, Mark Mazova's dark continent, which is the history of Europe in the in the twentieth century. But you're right. It's Poland we are looking to.

波兰就是新欧洲。它拥有超3000万（近4000万）人口，历届政府都是美国最紧密盟友，国防开支庞大，且秉持截然不同的欧洲愿景。问题在于：波兰能否填补因法国（总理频繁更迭）和德国（选举分裂严重）的脆弱性而产生的领导力空缺？它能成为欧洲的新引擎吗？

Poland is the new Europe. Poland, of course, huge population, well over 30,000,000 people, nearly 40. America's closest allies through all these administrations, massive defense spending, and a very different vision of Europe. And the question is, can Poland fill the gap, which sadly seems to exist because of the fractures and fragilities in France where he doesn't seem to be able to muster a prime minister who stays in for more than a few weeks? Germany, which seems to be very fractured electorally, can Poland step up and provide the engine of Europe?

他们确实在行动，尤其在防务领域表现突出。我手头有边境动态的简报——他们投入大量资金建设基础设施，认为这是必要之举，因为他们感同身受。

Well, they're stepping up. They're definitely stepping up on the defense front. I mean, I've got a briefing on some of the stuff that's going on close to the borders. I mean, they're putting a lot of money into it, putting big infrastructure into it. And they're saying they have to because they feel the same.

其中一人对我提到无人机时说，看，无人机只是冰山一角。那不过是他们在测试和玩耍。我认为他们的诉求——我猜测这就是为什么很少接受外国媒体采访的唐纳德·图斯克会在《星期日泰晤士报》做那次专访——他希望英国政策制定者能意识到，是的，无论是保守党还是工党执政下的英国，都对乌克兰给予了极大支持。但英国民众乃至西欧各国人民，真的完全理解当前局势对欧洲有多危险吗？

The drones one of them said to me, said, look, the drones are just kind of tip of the iceberg. That's just them testing and playing. And I think their plea, I think I suspect this is why Donald Tuske, who doesn't do much foreign media, I suspect this is why he did that interview in the Sunday Times, is he wanted British policymakers to see that they feel that yes, The UK has been very very both under the Tories now and the Labour very very supportive in relation to Ukraine, But is the British population is the population in the West Of Europe really across just how dangerous this situation is for Europe?

我最后的思考与此相关：在英国，我们很难想象拥有历史创伤记忆是什么感受。而波兰则非常清楚，其历史上曾长期处于他国统治之下——比如1874至1918年、1939至1945年间甚至完全丧失国家主权，18世纪末亦是如此。所以对他们而言，俄罗斯可能再次侵占领土绝非理论假设，而是基于历史经验的现实预判。

And my final thought, guess, which relates to that is that in Britain, we find it very difficult to, imagine what it's like to to be conscious of your history. And, of course, Poland, very, very aware of the fact that there have been very large periods of its history where it has been under domination from other countries. I mean, literally didn't exist as a state from, I think, 1874 to 1918, 1979 to '45, and actually at the end of the eighteenth century as well. So it's not a sort of theoretical thing for them. It's not it's not sort of beyond the realm of imagining that a state like Russia would want to help themselves to it because, of course, they've done it before.

希科尔斯基说过，我们五百年的历史经验告诉我们：当俄罗斯人威胁你时，你必须认真对待。

Shikorsky said that, you know, we have five hundred years of history that tells us when the Russians threaten you, you listen.

所以

So there

好了。总之情况就是这样。他将在迈克尔·戈夫的下集访谈后出场——那将是《领先》节目的下一个专访。罗里，我们明天问答环节见。

we go. Anyway, there we are. He will be out with, after part two of Michael Gove. That'll be the next interview on Leading. So we'll see you tomorrow for Q and A, Rory.

我们将讨论美国话题，虽然特朗普正在国际巡访，但我们会聚焦美国国内一些相当疯狂的事件。要聊聊米莱在阿根廷的胜选，谈谈心理健康问题，还要点评你的新书——书名是？叫《天啊》。

We're gonna talk about America and as Trump is off on one of his international tours, we're actually gonna focus on some of the pretty crazy stuff happening more domestically. We're gonna talk about Mille's win in Argentina. We're gonna talk about a bit about mental health, and we're going to review your book, Rory. Which is called? It's called oh my god.

《中间地带》。

Middleland.

中土大陆。我们到了。非常期待这次旅程。也许这会带来一些听众们一直期待的好消息。这次试着写一本更积极向上的书吧。

Middleland. There we are. Looking forward to it very much. Maybe that'll bring a bit of the positive news that our listeners are always looking for. Try to make a more positive book this time.

到时候见。到时候见。拜拜。

See you then. See you then. Bye bye.