#840：比尔·格利——AI时代的投资之道，中国十日行，以及从鲍勃·迪伦、杰瑞·宋飞、MrBeast等人身上学到的重要人生经验

所以他驾驶了自己200名员工的汽车。

So he drove 200 of his employees cars.

当你听到这种事时，你会想：哇。

Like, when you hear that kind of stuff, you're like, wow.

我想知道苹果公司有没有人这样做过。

I wonder if anyone at Apple did that.

我的意思是，这是一种非常自下而上、真正贴近现实的启动方式。

I mean, it's just such a kind of bottomed up, like just ground truth way to start the process.

但即便如此，即使很多人能这么做，你又如何有能力去建造一座工厂呢？

But even still, even if you did that, like a bunch of people could do that, how do you have the wherewithal to build a factory?

他们以前从未建造过工厂。

They've never built a factory before.

我曾在美国其他汽车工厂待过。

I've been in other car factories here in The US.

那真是令人惊叹。

It was phenomenal.

总之，回到你问的我为什么介入，是因为我早就认识雷军。

Anyway, back to your question why I had get in, is I knew Lei Jun from from way back.

这个过程是什么样的？

What does the process look like?

需要很多审批吗？得获得省级部门的批准吗？

Are there a bunch of clearances and you have to get the okay from the provincial?

我们没走完整个工厂，但不是那样的。

Don't think we went through the whole factory, but no, it wasn't that.

我的意思是，他们是一家上市公司。

I mean, they're a public company.

我认为他们希望被充分理解，这或许解释了他们为何允许这件事发生。

I think they're interested in being well understood, which I think hints at why they enabled this.

我认为他们得给这位YouTube博主送一辆车。

I think they had to send a car to this guy, the YouTuber.

是的。

Yeah.

顺便说一下，福特的总裁在我去之前大约六个月也去了那里，参加了同样的参观。

And by the way, the president of Ford went over there about six months before I did, went on the same tour.

所以他们让他去了。

So they let him go there.

他还让人把一辆SU7运到了密歇根州，开了好几个星期，并且谈到了它有多么出色。

And he had an SU-seven shipped to Michigan, and he drove it for several weeks, and he's talked about how incredible it is.

另外，如果我没记错的话，他还谈过中国在电动汽车生产以及电池或至少关键零部件方面的主导地位，以及其中蕴含的风险。

Well, he also, if I'm remembering correctly, has talked about EV production and battery dominance or at least component dominance from China and the sort of risks inherent in that.

我不太想过多涉及地缘政治，但很难不把这一点带入讨论中。

And I don't I don't wanna bleed too far into geopolitics, but it's hard not to pull it into the conversation.

所以这是一个来自X的问题，X就是那个前身为Twitter的人。

So this is a question from X, the artist formerly known as Twitter.

众多问题中的一个。

One of many questions.

但我还是要问，你在参观中国之后，对中国科技生态系统或中共最主要的几点批评是什么？

But I'll ask, what are your top handful of critiques, say, of the Chinese tech ecosystem or CCP after going on a tour there?

你认为他们在哪些方面做得不好，或者有哪些因素阻碍了他们的竞争力？

What would you say they're not doing well or things that complicate their ability to compete?

我认为第一个被广泛报道的问题是，当一位企业家取得成功后，试图利用这一平台发声时，政府似乎对此并不感兴趣。

Well, the first one that I think been well publicized is when an entrepreneur has risen to a level of success and then uses that as a platform, the government seems uninterested in that.

这就是一个例证。

Exhibit it.

比如马云。

The Jack Ma.

对。

Yeah.

我听说在中国时听过一句话：不要做最高的那棵树。

And there's a saying that I think I heard while I was over there, don't be the tallest tree.

对。

Yeah.

这就是：不要做最高的那棵树。

This is, don't be the tallest tree.

是的。

Yeah.

在日本，出头的钉子会被敲下去。

The nail that sticks out gets hammered down in Japan.

他们显然有着完全不同的体系。

They have a totally different system, obviously.

除了勒茹内之外，另一位企业家是字节跳动的首席执行官。

The other entrepreneur outside of Lejune is the ByteDance CEO.

字节跳动目前在消费级AI领域可能处于领先地位，类似于OpenAI，而且除了惊人的收入增长外，还有其他优势。

And ByteDance is probably got the leading position for the consumer AI, like OpenAI, but over there right now, in addition to just incredible revenue growth.

这是一家拥有TikTok等产品的公司。

This is the company that owned TikTok and whatnot.

但他们没有上市，你也完全看不到他，这可能与‘不要做最高的树’这个说法有关。

But they're not going public and you don't see him at all, which may get to this tallest tree thing.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，那里的名人也会消失，这毫无疑问。

I mean, celebrities also disappear over there No doubt.

非常神秘地。

Very mysteriously.

是的。

Yes.

还有商人。

Well, and business people.

没错。

Yeah.

所以，是的，这种事情确实会发生。

So, yes, that does happen.

我要说一下，对于那些感到困惑的人，因为有很多我们该怎么说呢？

I will say, and for people who are wondering, because there are a lot of how should we put this?

我的意思是，有些人非常愤怒，非常鹰派。

I mean, there are people who are very angry, very hawkish.

有些人非常支持，但他们的议程或联盟却受到质疑。

Some people are very, very supportive, and then their agendas or alliances get questioned.

我和你一样，只是希望尽可能了解正在发生的事情。

I, like you, am just interested in understanding what is happening to the extent that I can.

实际情况到底是什么？

What is the actual truth on the ground?

细节是什么？

What are the details?

坦白说，那边的创新非常了不起，他们在获取稀有金属和制造所需的一切方面所取得的成就令人惊叹。你去南美洲或非洲，基础设施项目上到处都是中国人的身影。

And frankly, I mean, the innovation over there is remarkable and what they've done in terms of establishing access to rare metals and everything they need to manufacture is remark you go to South America or Africa, and it is Chinese everywhere on infrastructure projects.

我的意思是，他们在这方面非常非常聪明。

I mean, they've been very, very smart about it.

所以我对这一切都深感兴趣，请别急着回答，我想听听你所有的看法。

So I'm deeply interested in all of it, and please hold your thought because I wanna hear everything you have to say.

我想说，让我印象深刻的是中国当局在下这盘三维棋时的高明之处：他们能够很好地与私营部门整合，从而以某种方式利用产品来扩大其影响力范围，比如大疆就是一个绝佳的例子。

What I would say is a piece of the, like, three-dimensional chess that I've been impressed with is how well the Chinese government is able to well, I mean, of course, they're able to integrate with the private sector so that they're able to use, in a sense, products to widen their scope of access potentially, like DJI, for instance, great example.

这些汽车尽管非常出色，但人们对此有很多疑问。

People have a lot of questions around these cars as spectacular as they might be.

它们是监控的延伸吗？

Are they an extension of surveillance?

这些都是我认为值得探讨的开放性问题。

These are open questions that I think are worth asking.

让我先说一点，然后再回到这个话题。

Let me make one point and then let's come to that.

我想再提另外两件事。

So there's two other things I wanted to mention.

显然，是基础设施。

Obviously, infrastructure.

他们正在建造新的核裂变电站。

So they are building new nuclear fission plants.

裂变技术是传统技术，但成本只有我们在美国建造时的四分之一。

So fission being old school, not new school at one fourth the price that we do it here in The US.

顺便说一下，韩国也是如此。

So is South Korea by the way.

是的，这些数字简直惊人。

Yeah, and the numbers are incredible.

但当我们坐在这里说，我们想把制造业回流，而他们能以我们四分之一的价格制造产品时。

But when we sit here and say, oh, we wanna reshor manufacturing and they can build things at one fourth the price we can.

如果你不解决这个问题，你回流的将是某些东西，而我们将在全球价格上失去竞争力。

If you don't solve that, you're gonna reshor something and we're gonna not be price competitive globally.

因为你不会进口他们的东西，而会让你的公民从这个新工厂购买价格高得多的产品。

Because you won't import what they have and you're gonna make our citizens buy from this new factory where we're making things way more expensive.

这行不通。

It doesn't work.

数学自己会说话。

The math does the math.

顺便说一句，我不确定这能带来就业机会。

And by the way, I'm not sure it brings jobs.

根据我获得的一些数据，小米工厂每生产一辆车所需的员工数量只有三分之一。

The Xiaomi factory was a third, based on some numbers I was able to acquire, a third the number of employees per car output.

我相信十年后，这个比例会降到六分之一。

And I got to believe in ten years it'll be a sixth.

因此，如果你把所有汽车生产都回流回来，可以计算出会带回多少就业岗位，那将是数十万级别。

And so you could calculate the total number of jobs you'd be bringing back if you brought back all this car production and it'd be hundreds of thousands.

这并不是数百万甚至上千万的就业岗位。

It's not millions and millions of jobs.

所以，无论如何，基础设施这个问题是真实存在的。

So anyway, that infrastructure thing's for real.

我认为丹·王很好地指出了，美国是由律师主导的

And I think Dan Wong does a good job of saying that America is run

而律师是这本书的作者

by And this lawyers is the author

我们的国家由律师主导，而他们的国家则由工程师主导。

of our country's run by lawyers and theirs is run by engineers.

工程师。

Engineers.

所以当你在这里试图建造一些东西时，律师们就会出来阻挠，这当然也解释了为什么埃隆说特斯拉的超级工厂建在奥斯汀而不是加州，所有这些都与此相关。

And so when you try and build something here, lawyers just get in the way and try and block it, which certainly when you hear Elon talks about why the Gigafactory is here in Austin and not in California, it all relates to those things.

所以，这就是基础设施的问题。

So anyway, that's infrastructure.

还有另一件我觉得很有趣的事，那就是政府可能并不关心本国公司的市值是否巨大。

There's another thing that's I think quite interesting, is the government may not care about whether or not their companies have really big market caps.

当我第一次意识到这一点时，你看到了阿里巴巴被打压、马云和蚂蚁金融被整治的情况，原本可能是一个巨大的机会，结果却被大幅削减了。

And when I first realized this, you know, you saw what happened when they took down Alibaba, when they went after Jack Ma and Ant Financial could have been this big thing and it got, you know, haircut.

你会质疑：他们真的在乎吗？

And you question, well, do they care?

如果你推动本国企业成为低成本供应商，这或许与它们追求超高利润和巨大规模相矛盾。

And if you are pushing your companies to be low cost providers, maybe that's at odds with them being hyper profitable and really big.

然后你就可以反过来问这个问题。

And then you can turn around and ask the question.

听到这些让我开始思考：美国真的因为这七家科技巨头拥有三万亿美元的市值而受益吗？

Hearing that caused me to ask the question, does America really benefit by the fact that the Mag seven have $3,000,000,000,000 market caps?

我知道这些公司的员工确实受益了，但这是否表明我们的竞争性资本主义社会其实并不真正具有竞争力？

I know the employees of those companies do, but is that a sign of our competitive capitalistic society not being truly competitive.

从全球范围来看。

On a global scale.

不。

No.

甚至在经济学课程中，你学到过一个概念，叫做完全竞争。

Even within like, there's a notion you learn about in economics classes called pure competition.

在完全竞争中，没有人拥有知识产权优势。

And in pure competition, no one has an intellectual property advantage.

边际利润被压缩到仅覆盖资本成本，消费者因此受益，因为没有超额利润的攫取。

Marginal profits are whittled down just to the cost of capital and the consumer benefits because there's no excessive profit capture.

如果我们有这么多公司都能获得超额利润，这是否是一种市场失灵？

If we have all these companies that are able to kind of have excessive profits, is that a form of market failure?

而且，它们的存在对美国有任何帮助吗？

And does the fact that they exist help America in any way?

起初，当然，作为一名风险投资家，我想说：当然有。

At first, of course, I'm a venture capitalist, I wanna think, yes, of course.

但当我深入思考时，我不确定我们的政府、社会或人民因为这六家公司拥有3万亿美元的市值而变得更好。

But then as I think about it, I don't know that our government or our society or our people are better off because these six companies have $3,000,000,000,000 market caps.

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，受雇于这些公司的员工占全国人口的比例很小。

It's not that many people that like, the percentage of the country that's employed by those companies is small on an overall basis.

我认为他们对大规模市值是否重要有不同看法，这在我看来有些引人深思。

I think they have a different perspective on whether big market caps matter, and I think that is somewhat intriguing.

你如何看待中国在某些领域引领创新，以更低的成本开发出更先进的技术，这可能是政府情报收集体系的延伸？

What do you think about the innovation in China leading in some cases to the development of superior technology at a lower cost that is plausibly an extension of the intelligence gathering apparatus of the government.

这是真实存在的吗？

Is that a real thing?

我不太了解情况。

I'm not in a good place to know.

我只能推测。

I would have to imagine.

考虑到他们渗透私营部门的能力，如果他们不利用这一点，那简直太愚蠢了。

It seems like they would have to be stupid not to use that given the their ability to penetrate private sector.

我觉得

I think

是的，没错。

it's yeah.

大家都知道，他们会对自己的人民进行监控。

I think it's certainly well known that they do surveillance of their own people.

我知道这尤其会让像格雷格·卢基亚诺夫这样的人感到不安，他经营着FIRE组织，非常关注言论自由。

And I know that would be particularly upsetting to people like Greg Lukianov that runs FIRE and is very interested in free speech.

另一方面，街头犯罪非常少。

The flip side is there's very little street crime.

你走在街上，到了那里就不会担心这个问题。

You walk around, you don't worry about that when you're there.

是的。

Yeah.

在日本也是如此。

It's true also in Japan though.

这并不能说明它是对是错。

Doesn't doesn't make it right or wrong.

它就是它本来的样子。

It's just it is what it is.

我不知道我们是否有能力去告诉他们必须怎么做。

And I don't know that we have this ability to kind of tell them how they have to do it.

至于华为的问题，他们的产品被出口后，被用来收集他们国家及世界各地的情报，这当然有问题。

Now to the extent that the Huawei stuff where their products are being shipped out and then those are used to gather intelligence out of their country and the rest of the world, of course that's a problem.

但我认为应对之道，我不是政治家，但我觉得应该采取接触策略，比如沟通你不喜欢和喜欢的地方，努力通过谈判解决这些问题，就像我们正在试图与芬太尼问题打交道那样。

But I think the way to deal with it, I'm not a politician, but I think the way to deal with it, I'm more of a believer of the engage, you know, like engage, talk about what you don't like and what you do like and try and negotiate that problem away like we're trying to do with the fentanyl prefers.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，很久以前我主修东亚研究的时候，那已经是很久以前的事了。

Well, way back in the day when I was an East Asian studies major, this was lifetimes ago.

我要提醒一下，1996年我在首都经济贸易大学读书。

And keeping in mind, like, I was at the Capital University of Business Economics in 1996.

那时候是自行车时代。

That was the bicycle era.

你知道的，那些老照片里的北京，

You know, these old photographs of Beijing with

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

成千上万辆自行车，人们穿着长长的绿色外套。

Millions of bicycles with people in their long green jackets.

我冬天也有一件那样的外套。

I had one of those jackets for the winters.

天气真的很冷。

It gets really cold.

但情况已经改变了很多。

But things have changed a lot.

当时，我展望未来，觉得自己可能会成为那些能使用中文交流的人之一。

At the time, I was looking forward and thinking I might be one of those people who could engage in Chinese.

坦白说，出于种种原因，我认为用英语来做这件事是最好的方式。

I think the way to do it is in English, frankly, for a whole host of reasons.

但即使你懂另一种语言，比如普京英语说得很好，他进行所有谈判时仍选择用俄语，这有很多合理的原因。

But even if you speak the other language, like Putin speaks English pretty well, but he does all of his negotiations when he's speaking in Russian for a lot of good reasons.

是的。

Yeah.

首先，

First

总的来说，我甚至被一些回应你推文的人指责为中共的代理人。

of all, I do get accused of being like an agent of the CCP or something, even by some of the people that responded to your Twitter thing.

我不是，我只去过几次。

And I'm not, I've only visited a few times.

我认识政府里的人。

I don't know anybody in government.

但我非常担心，如果我们误解了真实情况，就会做出错误的政策决定。

But I worry greatly that we make bad policy decisions if we misunderstand what's really going on.

不，我同意这一点。

No, I agree with that.

我完全同意。

I fully agree with that.

我的意思是，我确实一直在思考这个问题，我真的很担心。

I mean, I've thought about I frankly am worried about it.

我会拿一个一次性手机和一台一次性笔记本电脑。

I mean, I would take a burner phone and a burner laptop.

我考虑过，因为我希望更好地理解那种能够培育出来的创新文化，以及事情究竟是怎样的，只要它们能被我察觉到。

I've thought about it because I wanna get a better understanding of the culture of innovation that can be fostered and exactly how things are to the extent that it would be visible to me.

中国的发展情况。

How things are developing in China.

我考虑过去那里。

I've thought about going there.

我也想过在印度做同样的事，去采访十位顶尖的企业家。

I've thought about doing the same thing in India too to go and interview, like, 10 of the top entrepreneurs.

但我没去的原因是，我只是觉得，我不清楚这会把我置于怎样的监控之下，会引发什么样的 Surveillance，会有多困难，我得去巴结谁。

But the reason I haven't done it is that I'm just like, I don't know what radars that's gonna put me on, what kind of surveillance, what kind of fill in the blank, how difficult is it gonna be, whose rings am I gonna have to kiss.

是我想太多了吗，还是真的风险很大？

Am I overthinking it, or is it still full?

你想太多了。

Overthinking it.

我觉得蒂姆·费里斯在中国失踪的可能性微乎其微。

I think the odds that Tim Ferriss would disappear in China is really

哦，我

Oh, I'm

不担心会消失。

not worried about disappearing.

那太糟糕了。

Would be terrible.

那样做的利弊根本说不通。

That like, the upside downside on that doesn't make any sense.

不。

No.

我它

I it's

我我不担心会消失。

I I don't I'm not worried about disappearing.

有些公司可能不会跟你打交道。

There are companies that may not speak with you.

比如我上次去的时候，深海康联公司，外面已经传开了，他们不接待西方人。

Like, when I was there, deep sea con unitary, the word was kind of out on the street that they're not meeting with westerners Yeah.

你知道，出于一些原因

You know, for reasons that

嗯，我肯定在美国也是如此。

are Well, I'm sure that's true conversely in The US too.

是的。

Yes.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我肯定这是有道理的，顺便说一下，当你思考这个国家时，这种反思性的视角是有帮助的。

I'm sure that's and by the way, think that reflective, lens when you think about the country is helpful.

比如，亚历克斯·卡普上周刚在DealBook大会上登台演讲。

Like, Alex Karp was just on stage of DealBook last week.

他谈到了监控，说：当然，我们的工具被用来监视敌人。

He was talking about surveillance and he says, well, of course, our tools are used to surveil the enemy.

是的。

Yeah.

然后我就想，好吧。

And and I'm like, okay.

我的天，中国人在监视我们，但显然我们也在监视他们。

Well, my god, the Chinese are surveilling us, but obviously, we're surveilling them too.

对啊。

Like Yeah.

让我们坦诚面对这些问题吧。

Like, let's be honest about these things.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这在很多明显的原因下要容易得多。

I mean, it's a lot easier for a bunch of obvious reasons.

在某些方面，他们监视我们比我们监视他们容易得多。

It's, in some respects a lot easier for them to surveil us than the other way around.

我的意思是，部分原因在于那边社会的同质性。

I mean, partially just due to the homogeneity of the society over there.

对吧？

Right?

你不可能随便派一群金发碧眼、黑人、拉美裔之类的人去中国，进入顶尖大学、顶尖公司等等。

You can't, like, send a bunch of blonde haired, blue eyed, black Latino, whatever to China to end up at, like, top universities, top companies, etcetera.

这要难得多。

It's just a lot harder.

顺便说一句，为了总结这部分，我想说还有另外两件事。

By the way, to put a to put a bow on this part, like, I would I would say there's two other things.

第一，你提到了一点，供应链已经深度整合到中国的原材料层面，即使你把工厂搬回这里，也只会成为一个组装厂，仍然要从那里采购原材料，这未必具有成本优势。

One, you hinted at one, the supply chains are so integrated in China down to the raw material level that even if you brought a factory back here, it'd be more of an assembly shop and you'd still be sourcing from there, which isn't necessarily cost competitive.

而要复制所有这些将需要非常、非常、非常长的时间。

And to replicate all of it would take a very, very, very long time.

基本药物的原材料。

Well, raw materials for staple pharmaceuticals.

我的意思是，有很多方面。

I mean, there's a lot.

是的。

Yeah.

所以有很多事情正在发生。

So there's a lot going on.

那么，到目前为止，对美国来说，是不是为时已晚、为钱所困？

So what at this point, is it a day late and a dollar short for The US?

我知道我几乎向你保证过我们不谈这个，但我真的很想听听你的看法。

I know I almost promised you we weren't gonna go into this, but I I wanna know your opinion.

我太好奇了。

I'm so curious.

比如，美国保持全球经济竞争力和活力的关键是什么？

Like, what are the keys to The US remaining globally competitive and vibrant as an economy?

你暗示了一个关键点，那就是核能似乎势在必行，或者需要更多能源。

You hinted to one, which is it seems kinda inevitable nuclear power or more power.

那么你打算怎么做呢？

So how do you do that?

我不确定你能否迅速扭转局面，尽管似乎有少数人已经很好地改变了舆论走向。

I'm not sure how quickly you can right the ship, although it seems like a handful of people have done a pretty good job of changing the narrative.

是的。

Yeah.

在你看来，美国需要做哪些关键事情？

What are some of the key things in your opinion that The US needs to do?

一是让建设变得更简单。

One is make it easier to build.

建设公司？

Build companies?

我认为要建设基础设施。

I think build infrastructure.

比如，如果你想按时、按预算建造半导体工厂或核电站，目前在美国这非常困难。

Like, if you're gonna build semiconductor plants, if you're gonna build nuclear plants on time and on budget, that's very hard to do in The US right now.

而希望的曙光在于，有几个州的州长似乎想要扫清障碍。

And the glimmer of hope, would say, is that a few states seem to have governors that want to get stuff out of the way.

我认为正是繁文缛节、官僚主义、律师和诉讼让这些项目变得如此昂贵。

And I think it's red tape and bureaucracy and lawyers and litigation that make this stuff so expensive.

因此，德克萨斯州和亚利桑那州似乎获得了不成比例的数据中心和半导体工厂份额。

And so Texas and Arizona seem to be getting their unfair share of data centers and semiconductor plants.

我认为正是因为这种态度，我在宾夕法尼亚州也看到了类似的情况——他们用十二天就修好了95号公路，但他们不得不直接搁置一些现行的法律法规。

And I think because of that attitude, I've seen a similar attitude in Pennsylvania, where they're like, they repaired I-ninety five in twelve days because but they literally had to take a bunch of statutes that are on the books and say they don't apply right now.

所以，我认为这种思维模式需要更多的推动力。

So that mindset, I think, needs a lot more momentum.

这是一方面。

That'd be one thing.

关于中国方面，还有另一件事我认为人们需要理解。

There's another thing that that I think is important for people to understand on the China front.

有很多人嗓门很大，会说：哦，他们知道如何大规模建厂，但不懂任何创新。

There are numerous people with a loud microphone that will say, oh, they know how to scale out like plants, but they don't know how to do any innovation.

这完全是错误的。

And that's just flat wrong.

这么说的人根本没去过那里。

Whoever's saying that just hasn't been there.

他们不了解实际情况。

They don't know the facts on the ground.

这些企业家与我们这里的创业者一样优秀。

These entrepreneurs are every bit as good as the entrepreneurs they are here.

比如在激光雷达领域，他们开发了一款MEMS激光雷达产品，价格只有130美元。

There are examples like in LiDAR, they built a MEMS LiDAR product that's like $130

一辆车。

a car.

什么是MEMS激光雷达？

What is MEMS LiDAR?

它是固态的，使用固态半导体技术，而不是那种大型的旋转雷达。

It's solid state, it uses solid state semiconductor technology instead of that big spinning radar.

所以，Waymo上的激光雷达是5美元，而他们用在每辆车上的MEMS激光雷达是130美元。

And so the LiDAR on a on a Waymo is $5, and it's a $130 for MEMS LiDAR they're putting on every car.

你可以在ChatGPT里输入：告诉我关于中国在MEMS激光雷达方面的创新。

You can go into ChatGPT and say, tell me about MEMS LiDAR innovation in China.

但这只是一个很好的例子。

But it's just a great example.

Lejeune是另一个例子。

Lejeune's another one.

但任何认为中国没有创新的人，都只是……

But like anybody that thinks there's no innovation is just Yeah.

他们完全错了。

They're just wrong.

他们视野受限了。

They got blinders on.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

那不对。

That's not true.

那绝对不对。

That's definitely not true.

两年前我问过你，有没有哪些国家是你看好的。

I asked you two years ago if there are any countries that you're long on.

当时我很想知道，现在情况是否还是这样，你说你看好英国。

At the time, I'd be curious if this is still the case, you said you're long on The UK.

监管俘获较少，

Less regulatory capture,

输的一方支付

losing Did do

是吗？

that?

在英国法律体系中，败诉方承担费用，我喜欢这一点。

Losing party pays in the I legal system do love that.

这相比美国减少了无谓的诉讼。

Which which reduces frivolous litigation compared to The US.

你最近看好哪里？

Any thoughts on where you're bullish these days?

讽刺的是，几周前马特·里德利来城里了，

Well, ironically, Matt Ridley was in town a few weeks ago and

还有《理性乐观派》。

also A rational optimist.

是的。

Yes.

我非常喜欢他的作品，但他会说我在这一点上完全错了。

I love his stuff, but he would say that I would be dead wrong on that.

那里的状况并不好。

Things things aren't going well there.

所以他住在那里，我就当自己在这方面错了。

So and he lives there, so I'll just take that as I I got that one wrong.

嗯，我的意思是，这也取决于时间框架。

Well, I mean, it depends on the time frame too.

对吧？

Right?

是

Is it

是两年，还是五年，或者十年？

is it two years or is it five years or is it ten years?

你知道，中国令人印象深刻的一点是，自邓小平重新引入资本主义以来，已有五亿人摆脱了贫困。

You know, one of the things that's been impressive about China is, you know, since Deng Xiaoping kind of brought back capitalism, 500,000,000 people have come out of poverty.

你看看那些具有强烈敬业精神、高教育水平但目前人均收入较低的国家，你会觉得更多的工作机会应该会流向它们。

You look at countries that have a very strong work ethic and a high education and a low currently low per populated income, and you would think more jobs would come their way.

对我来说，两个典型的例子是越南和土耳其。

So two that would pop for me are Vietnam and Turkey.

我们基本符合所有这些条件。

We kind of check all those boxes.

好吧。

Alright.

希望到时候能做得更好。

Hopefully, do better then.

再检查一下。

Check-in in

再过两年。

another two years.

简单感谢一下我们的赞助商，马上回来继续节目。

Just a quick thanks to our sponsors, and we'll be right back to the show.

肌酸不仅仅用于增肌。

Creatine isn't just for muscle.

它是大脑、身体和长期表现所需的每日基本能量。

It's essential daily fuel for your brain, your body, and long term performance.

对我来说，我的家族有阿尔茨海默病和痴呆症的风险。

For me, I have Alzheimer's and dementia risk in my family.

认知方面的益处是我每天坚持服用肌酸的原因。

The cognitive benefits are the reason I take creatine every single day.

今天节目的赞助商Momentous是肌酸的黄金标准。

And today's episode sponsor, Momentous, is the gold standard in creatine.

市面上有很多虚假宣传，但我选择他们。

There's a lot of BS floating around, but I choose them.

为什么？

Why?

因为他们使用的是Creapure肌酸，这是最纯净、最有效的肌酸一水合物。

Because they source Creapure creatine, the purest, most effective creatine monohydrate available.

所以，如果你一直对肌酸感兴趣，现在就是你重新开始或首次尝试的好时机。

So if you've been curious about creatine, this is your moment to get back on track or try it for the first time.

Momentous 现在还推出了 Momentous 肌酸咀嚼片。

Momentous is also now introducing the Momentous creatine chews.

每片咀嚼片含有 1 克纯正的 Creapure 肌酸一水合物。

Each chew delivers one gram of pure CreaPure Creatine Monohydrate.

我最初对这些咀嚼片持怀疑态度。

I was skeptical of these chews.

我当时想：我永远不会用这些。

I was like, I'm never gonna use these.

结果我发现我一直在用它们。

It turns out that I use them all the time.

它们非常方便，而且获得了 NSF 体育认证，让你在无需麻烦的情况下获得黄金标准的纯度。

They're super convenient, and they are NSF certified for sports, so you get the gold standard purity without all the mess.

前往 livemomentous.com 并使用代码 Tim，首次订购最高可享 35% 折扣。

Head to livemomentous.com and use code Tim for up to 35% off of your first order.

嘿，大家好。

Hey, folks.

我是蒂姆。

Tim here.

我与Exploding Kittens的出色团队共同制作的畅销卡牌游戏《Coyote》，刚刚荣获2025年Pop Insider最佳极客游戏奖，以及2025年Made for Mums玩具奖的最佳圣诞袜填充玩具奖。

My best selling card game Coyote, which I made with the amazing team at Exploding Kittens, just won the Pop Insider best geeky game of 2025 and also best stocking filler in the Made for Mums Toy Awards twenty twenty five.

它在所有地方都在打折。

It is on sale everywhere.

它很便宜。

It's cheap.

它很容易上手。

It's fast to learn.

它有五分之四点八的评分。

It has 4.8 stars out of five.

人们都非常喜欢它。

People are loving it.

访问 Coyotegame.com 可以找到所有零售商，但你 everywhere 都能找到它。

Coyotegame.com will take you to all the retailers, but you can find it everywhere.

这是一款需要快速思考、更快大笑的游戏。

It is a game of thinking fast and laughing faster.

想象一下猜谜游戏结合传土豆，再加上一堆脑力乐趣。

Think charades meets hot potato meets a bunch of brain fun.

这对你的大脑很有好处。

It's good for your head.

它非常适合有10岁孩子的家庭，或者内心仍保有童真的成年人，或者那些不把自己太当回事的人。

It's perfect for families with kids aged 10 or adults who are kids at heart or don't take themselves too seriously.

很多成年人都喜欢这款游戏。

A lot of adults love this game.

正如我所说，它在各个地方都能买到。

And as I said, it's available everywhere.

亚马逊、沃尔玛、塔吉特，还有八千多家零售店，你想得到的地方都有。

Amazon, Walmart, Target, 8,000 plus retail locations, you name it.

所以请去试试吧。

So please check it out.

我非常喜欢制作这个游戏。

I loved making it.

人们真的非常喜欢它。

People are really enjoying it.

它在网上拥有三亿到四亿次以上的游戏玩法观看量。

It has 300 or 400,000,000 plus social views of gameplay online.

去试试吧。

And try it.

这个假期享受它吧。

Enjoy it this holiday season.

再去看看吧，coyotegame.com 再一次。

Check it out, coyotegame.com one more time.

那就是 coyotegame.com，或者你购买游戏的任何地方。

That's coyotegame.com or anywhere you buy your games.

现在回到这一集。

Now back to the episode.

好吧。

Alright.

让我们谈谈这个，这将过渡到讨论追逐梦想以及与此相关的所有事情。

Let's talk about this is gonna be a segue to talking about running down the dream and all things involved with that.

也许我们可以从一位同样喜爱奥斯汀的人的小故事开始。

Maybe we could start with an anecdote from a fellow Austenite.

喜欢打邦戈鼓，留着长发，偶尔会吸大麻。

Likes to play the bongos, long hair, associated with smoking reefer every once in a while.

马修。

Matthew.

是的。

Yes.

我们在开始录制前刚聊过关于马修的一个小故事。

We were talking about a short anecdote about Matthew before we started recording.

你愿意分享一下吗？

Would you mind sharing that?

在我准备并即将完成这本书时，我开始听《绿光》，有人告诉我必须听，因为当然他自己朗读，你能感受到麦康纳利那种独特的语气。

As I was preparing as I was kind of wrapping up the book, I started listening to Green Lights, and I was told you had to listen to it because of course he reads it, so you get all the great McConaughey affections as you read it.

但书里有一个故事突然浮现在我脑海中，恰好概括了我写《追逐梦想》这本书想要表达的核心。

But there's a story in it that just popped in my brain and kind of summarized exactly what I'm trying to accomplish with this book Running Down a Dream.

他在年轻时的大部分时间里——大约二十岁出头时——一直告诉家人自己将来要当律师。

And he had spent the vast majority of his young adult life, so this anecdotes from when he was like 20, 21, telling his family he was going to be a lawyer.

于是他考上了德克萨斯大学，主修预科法律。

And so he'd gotten into the University of Texas, he was pre law.

每次回家，他都会说：‘我会当律师的。’

Every time he went home, talked about, yeah, I'm gonna be a lawyer.

但在德克萨斯大学，他遇到了一些人，说服他转去电影学院。

And he had met some people at Texas that had convinced him that he should switch to film school.

但他对向父亲坦白这件事感到极度焦虑。

And he had immense anxiety about sharing this with his father.

他的父亲，书中都有提到，是个非常严厉的人。

His father, this is all in the book, but his father's a very tough individual.

所以当你准备公布一些消息时，感到害怕是合理的。

And so reason to be fearful when you're gonna drop some news.

我不再打算当律师了，我要去上电影学院。

I'm no longer gonna be a lawyer, I'm gonna go to film school.

他在书中详细描述了这一点，我并不知道什么时候该跟他谈。

And he builds it up a lot in the book, I didn't know when I was gonna talk to him.

你可以想象那种情况，你一再拖延，拖延，再拖延。

You can imagine being in that situation, you're delaying, delaying, delaying.

但他最终告诉了父亲，父亲只说了一句很简单的话：别半途而废。

But he finally tells his dad and his dad utters this very simple phrase, well, don't half ass it.

他说，所有可能的反应中，‘别半途而废’是他最没想到的话，也是能对他说的最好的话。

And he says, you know, of all the reactions he could have had, don't half ass it were the last words I expected to hear and the best words he could have ever said to me.

他说，在那一刻，父亲给予了他祝福、许可、认可、肯定、特权、荣誉、自由和责任。

And he said in that single moment he gave him blessing, consent, approval, validation, privilege, honor, freedom, and responsibility.

他称之为火箭燃料。

He called it rocket fuel.

我希望相信，世界上有许多人，年轻人，甚至一些中年转行者，都有这样的想法：他们本该做别的事，但社会却给他们安排了一条路。

And I'd like to believe there are a number of people out there, young adults, maybe even some midlife career, who have this notion that they should be doing something else, but society has put them on a path.

或者，他们通过大学教育的路径，最终进入了一份自己并不热爱的职业，但他们内心隐隐觉得，自己本可以去做那件事。

Or just the way they matriculated through college put them into a career that they just don't love, and that they have this inkling that they could go do this thing.

或者你是个年轻人，真的很想做X，但别人都告诉你该做A、B和C。

Or maybe you're a young kid and you really want to do x, but everybody else is telling you to do a, b, and c.

我想帮助他们获得信心和许可，去追求X，去追逐这个梦想。

I want to help them have the confidence and permission to go do x, like to go chase this dream.

正如我们在上一次通话中提到的，我认为你建立联系、收集信息并按自己的节奏学习的能力从未如此之好。

And as you ended up from our last call, I think your ability to make connections and to gather information and learn on your own pace has never been better.

如果你愿意，你可以整天坐在那里和ChatGPT聊上六个小时，从而深入了解任何一个领域。

You can literally just sit there and talk to ChatGPT six hours a day, if you so choose, and learn so much about any particular field.

因此，你能够主动掌握自己的人生，去尝试并成功实现你真正热爱的事情，我认为这比以往任何时候都更有可能。

And so your ability to take things into your own hands and to go try and be successful in this thing that feel passionate about, I think has never been better.

你为什么觉得，当你最初提出并随后不得不在线上展示这个梦想时，这个过程花了这么长时间？

Why do you think when you initially gave and subsequently had to go online, run down a dream as a presentation, why do you think that took?

为什么它能以这种方式引起共鸣？

Why did it strike a chord in the way that it did?

你觉得是

What do

你认为原因是什么？

you think it was?

我认为我们构建了一个没有人为过错的社会。

I think we built a society like nobody's fault.

我们只是建立了一个社会，在这个社会里，我们热衷于庆祝各个领域成功的人，但当我们考虑自己孩子的未来时，却往往更实际地思考他们应该做什么。

Like we just have built a society where we love to celebrate people that are successful in a lot of different fields, but when it comes to our own children, we tend to think way more pragmatically about what they should be doing.

律师、顾问、医生、计算机科学家，这些都是具有财务保障的职业。

Lawyers, consultants, doctors, computer scientists, it's all these jobs that have certainty to the financial component.

我认为这本意是很好的。

And I think that's so well intended.

我觉得这个系统里没有人存有恶意。

Like, I I don't think there's malintent of anyone in the system.

我有三个孩子，我亲身经历过这些。

And I'm a parent of three, like I've been through this.

你只是感到一种责任，想要推动他们走向繁荣。

You just feel this obligation to try and push them towards prosperity.

但这种繁荣不是智力上的繁荣，也不是幸福，而是财务上的繁荣。

But it's not intellectual prosperity, it's not happiness, it's financial.

是流动性。

It's Mobility.

是的。

Yes.

大多数人都是在引导孩子朝这个方向走。

That most people are guiding children towards.

这并不是什么复杂的数学问题，但大多数人一生会工作八万个小时。

And this isn't that complicated math, but most people end up working eighty thousand hours in their life.

这占了你生命的三分之一。

It's a third of your life.

为什么要做你不喜欢的事情？

Why do something you don't like?

盖洛普有针对职业参与度的调查数据，59%的人表示他们在工作中缺乏投入。

There's Gallup poll data on career engagement and fifty nine percent of people say they're not engaged at work.

这正是我们经常听到的‘安静辞职’现象。

And this is that whole quiet quitting thing that we hear so much about.

其中一些数字已降至历史最低点。

And some of these numbers are at an all time low.

这看起来太可怕了，人们仿佛只是漫无目的地度过一生。

It just seems horrific, like, the people are kind of sauntering through life.

那么，在这种情况下，走一条少有人走的路，关键是什么？

What are some of the keys to taking the path less traveled then in this case?

我给自己列了几点，但我们应该从哪里开始呢？

And, I mean, there are a few I highlighted for myself, but where should we start?

我为自己列了一条。

I highlighted one for myself.

我们不必从这里开始，但要去有行动的地方。

We don't have to start here, but go where the action is.

我只是觉得这一点被严重低估了，尤其是在数字世界里，人们可能更忽视它。

I just think this is so underrated and people further undervalue it maybe in a digital world.

但你可以从任何你想开始的地方入手。

But we can start anywhere you want.

这只是其中一个特别引起我注意的点，因为我认为它被严重低估了。

That's just one that's that really jumped out to me because I think it's really underrated.

但你希望从哪里开始呢？

But where would you like to start?

在书中，我们很早就将热情、着迷或好奇心与学习联系在一起。

In the book, one of the things that we tie together very early on is the interplay between passion or fascination or curiosity and learning.

要在任何事业中取得最大成功，尤其是当你打算挑战那些不那么务实的事情时，最好的方法就是成为你所能成为的最聪明、最有知识的人。

And the way to be most successful in any endeavor, but certainly if you're gonna go tilt it, something that's less pragmatic, is to be the smartest, most knowledgeable person you can possibly be.

正如我们之前提到的，知识现在是免费的。

And knowledge is free now, as we've talked about.

我有一个测试方法，可以判断你是否真正热衷于自己所追求的事情：你是否会利用自己的空闲时间自学？

And I have this test for whether or not you're actually truly passionate about what you're trying to do, which is do you self learn on your own time?

比如，你是否会放弃看《绝命毒师》，转而去阅读这个领域的资料，并从中获得动力？

Like would you not watch Breaking Bad and read about this field and be energized by that activity.

如果你是这样的人，那么我们在书中收录了二十到三十个成功人士的故事，几乎所有人都符合这一标准。

If you are, and we have twenty, thirty different stories in the book of people that have been successful, almost all of them check that box.

你拥有惊人的能力，能够比你所有的竞争对手更快地获取知识。

You just have this amazing ability to gain knowledge so much faster than everyone else you would be competing with.

这一定会很有用，这无疑是很有用的。

And that's gonna be useful, that's unquestionably gonna be useful.

这让我想起很久以前看过的一次采访。

It makes me think of an interview I saw a long time ago, actually.

那是很多年前的事了，但那是对乔·罗根的一次采访。

It was quite a few years ago, but it was an interview with Joe Rogan.

他说了一些让我惊讶的话，可能也会让很多人感到意外，大意是他并不擅长意志力或自律，尽管他身材非常好。

And he said something that surprised me, it might surprise a lot of people, which was along the lines of he's not good at it was either willpower or discipline, which is he's in great shape.

显然，他是柔术黑带。

Obviously, he's black belt in jujitsu.

他做到了自己在播客领域所做的一切。

He's done what he's done with the podcast.

他是播客领域的无可争议的王者，等等，等等，等等。

He's the undisputed king of podcasting, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

他说，我其实并不擅长所谓的自律或意志力，但我非常擅长痴迷。

And he said, I'm not actually good at whether it was discipline or willpower, but I am good at obsession.

要么全有，要么全无。

It's all on or all off.

我见过这种状态。

And I've seen that.

我相信你也见过，很多真正成功、创造出巨大成就的创业者都是这样的。

I'm sure you've seen this in a lot of the entrepreneurs who actually make it to the other side and create these mega successes.

他们只是着迷了。

They are just obsessed.

毫无疑问。

No doubt.

这给了他们巨大的优势，不仅是知识上的优势，还有耐力上的优势。

And that gives them a huge, not just knowledge advantage, but endurance advantage.

你只需要一个个地完成清单上的事项。

You just go down the checkboxes.

这全是优势。

It's all advantages.

在我研究这个话题时，我有机会与安吉拉·达克沃斯交谈。

I had the opportunity to talk to Angela Duckworth when I was working on this.

她的书《坚毅》谈到了两个组成部分：热情和毅力。

And her book, Grit, talks about two components, passion and perseverance.

我最近听了一期她参与的播客，她说如果可以重来，她会更加重视热情和毅力，因为她认为我们一直教导孩子要苦干。

And I heard a podcast she had done recently where she said if she could go back, she would put far more weight on the passion and the perseverance because she says we've taught our children to grind.

所以，再次地，在六年级时，他们被要求学习长笛、打长曲棍球、做所有这些事情，拼命备考SAT，选修额外的学分课程等等。

And so once again, in sixth grade, they're told to learn the flute and take lacrosse and do all this stuff and crush the SATs and take the extra credit classes and all this.

他们都这么做，全都这么做。

And they all do it and they all do it.

然后他们上了大学，别人问他们：‘你最近怎么样？’

And then they go to college and, oh, how are you doing?

他们选六门课而不是四门，只是不停地奔波。

They take six hours of class instead of four and they're just going.

但她最终说，如果你没有那份热情，你就会耗尽精力。

But eventually she says, if you don't have that passion, you just burn out.

所以，你说得对，关于精力这部分。

And so you're right about the energy part.

我认为这既是知识的积累，也是你投入了更多的循环。

I think it's both knowledge and you've put in more cycles.

是的。

Yeah.

这让我想到，也许在硅谷这已经成了陈词滥调，因为被反复提及太多次了，但很多听众可能还没听过：如果你想寻找下一个技术突破或前沿事物，就去看看那些极客周末在做什么。

It makes me think of maybe this is cliched in Silicon Valley because it gets so oft repeated, but a lot of folks listening will not have heard it, which is if you're looking for the next sort of technological breakthrough or something on the edge, look for what the nerds are doing on the weekends.

但这不仅是发现几年后可能兴起的事物的好方法。

But it's not just a great way to find what might be coming around the corner in a few years.

这也是发现值得投资的人的好方法——他们已经在利用自己的空闲时间投身于这些事情。

It's a great way to find the people to bet on who are already using their excess, their free time to work on these things.

毫无疑问。

No doubt.

我想到了布里·佩蒂斯和3D打印。

I think of Brie Pettis and three d printing.

我的意思是，我可以一口气列出一大串例子。

I mean, I can just go down the list.

顺便说一句，去中心地带的另一个优势是，那里总有更多人在做这样的事。

And by the way, that's another advantage of going to the epicenter is there's more people doing that all the time.

让我们聊聊可能会让人惊讶的人——鲍勃·迪伦。

Let's talk about people might be surprised by this, but Bob Dylan.

我认为这是最典型的例子。

I think this is just the quintessential example.

他为什么和我们讨论的内容相关？

Why is he relevant to what we're talking about?

当这个想法浮现在我脑海时，我刚读完第三本传记，并将它与其他两本进行对比，结果发现了所有这些模式。

When this idea popped in my head, I had finished a third biography and contrasted it with these other two, and I just saw all these patterns.

你知道，风险投资就是一场模式识别的游戏。

You know, VC is a game of pattern recognition.

我想我的大脑只是逐渐进化了。

I guess my brain's just developed.

我当时想，天啊，这完全是一种锁定现象，这三个人都做了同样的事情。

I was like, oh my god, it's all this kind of lock thing where these three people had all done the same thing.

一个是篮球教练，一个是餐饮经营者，另一个是鲍勃·迪伦。

And one was a basketball coach, one was a restaurateur, and the other was Bob Dylan.

不是行业，嘿，这难道不是你应该寻求职业发展建议的地方吗？

Not industry, hey, this is where you should get career development advice, right?

关于迪伦的故事中，有一部分大多数人并不了解，除非他们读过所有传记，或者看过斯科塞斯的纪录片。

There's a part of the Dylan story that most people wouldn't know unless they had read all the biographies or maybe seen the Scorsese documentary.

但这部新电影完全忽略了这一点：在来到纽约之前，年轻的鲍勃·迪伦一直在明尼苏达州深入研究民谣音乐，我敢肯定，当他离开时，他对民谣音乐的了解比明尼苏达州任何其他人都要深。

But the new movie misses the whole thing, which is the pre New York Bob Dylan was hanging out in Minnesota studying folk music at such a deep level that I feel confident in saying when he left, he knew more about folk music than any other human in Minnesota.

他当时在借朋友的唱片，也许这还是个委婉的说法——他其实是在偷朋友的唱片。

And he was borrowing, and maybe that's even a euphemism, he was stealing his friends albums.

他经常去唱片店，钻进试听隔间里。

He was going into the record store into these listening booths.

他仿佛掌握了所有能知道的东西，对每一处细节都进行了深入研究。

Like he knew all there was to know and had studied every bit of it.

斯科塞斯称他为‘音乐探险家’。

And he's referred to by Scorsese as a music expeditionary.

那些在纽约认识他的人，都能模仿他任何一首歌。

And the people that knew him in New York City could mimic any one song.

这并不是你听到迪伦歌曲时所想象的那样——他先彻底掌握了音乐的根基，然后才开始创新。

It's not what you would think of when you hear a Dylan song that he had kind of mastered the bedrock underneath and then started innovating.

顺便说一下，毕加索也是同样的情况。

Picasso, by the way, the same thing.

14岁时就是完美的写实派画家。

Perfect realist painter at age 14.

如果你去巴塞罗那的毕加索博物馆，那里是按时间顺序陈列的，你会惊讶于这个孩子在转向其他风格之前，写实技巧有多么精湛。

If you go to the Barcelona Picasso Museum, like it's in geographic order and you're kind of shocked at how good a realist this kid was before he went and did this other thing.

我认为，拥有全部历史知识作为基础，然后再开始创新，这一点至关重要。

That bedrock knowledge, I think is so differentiating for someone to have all the history and then to start doing the innovation.

关于迪伦，从明尼苏达到纽约市，前后有什么变化？

What was the before and after on Dillon, sort of Minnesota, New York City.

为什么这如此重要

And why is that such an important

顺便提一下，为了进一步说明鲍勃·迪伦这种勤学苦练的一面，他曾做过一系列播客，逐一讲解各种音乐流派，

By way, and and just to, like, even pile on more on this kind of studious part of Bob Dylan, he did a podcast series for a while where he just walks through all these different genres of music and

你是在说鲍勃·迪伦本人吗？

You're talking about Bob Dylan himself?

是的。

Yes.

哦，我

Oh, I

我之前不知道这一点。

didn't realize this.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

你可以去找找看。

You can go find it.

然后他两年前出版的那本《50首最佳歌曲》的咖啡桌书籍，展现了他对自身流派之外各种歌曲的惊人知识，方方面面。

And then that book he put out of the 50 best songs, that coffee table book that came out two years ago, It's incredible the amount of knowledge he has about songs outside of his genre, everything.

所以他显然是自己所从事领域的认真学习者。

So he's just a clear student of what he's doing.

我认为这一点是众所周知的，并且在电影开头就提到了。

I think this is well known and is covered at the beginning of the movie.

他前往纽约寻找伍迪·格思里，这可能是我听过的最明确、最具雄心的追随导师的故事。

He went to New York to find Woody Guthrie, Probably the single kind of most deterministic and ambitious mentor pursuit story that I've ever heard of.

他身无分文地搭便车前往，找到了他，并与他成了朋友。

Like, he he hitchhiked there with no money and found him and became friends with him.

这呼应了‘去有行动的地方’这一说法。

This echoes back to go where the action is also.

当然无疑。

Oh, no doubt.

顺便说一句，他抵达曼哈顿时，正好身处民谣音乐圈的中心，而他在明尼苏达州聆听时研究的那些人，全都聚集在那里。

And by the way, he landed in Manhattan at the center of the folk music scene, and all those people he was studying when he was listening in Minnesota, they were all there.

你知道，他后来认识了他们所有人。

You know, he got to know them all.

如果没发生这些，我认为就不会有迪伦。

If that doesn't happen, I don't think Dylan happens.

你知道吗？

You know?

考虑到现在可以通过ChatGPT或其他工具轻松获取信息，你觉得‘去有行动的地方’这个理念还有多大的相关性？

How relevant do you think the go where the action is now considering the access to information using ChatGPT or other tools, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera?

也许导师的获取没那么重要了，尽管你仍然可以建立虚拟关系。

Maybe less so access to mentors, although you can have virtual relationships.

但你觉得这有多相关呢？

But how relevant do you think that is?

我有自己的看法。

I've got my own opinion.

你当然可以拥有远程的同伴和导师体验。

You could certainly have the type of peer and mentor experiences that are remote.

我在书里讲过一个关于MrBeast的精彩故事，是个远程的例子，我们可以聊聊。

I have a great anecdote about mister beast in the book that we could talk about that was a remote one.

但身处一群同样追求目标的人中间，这种好处是巨大的。

But the benefits of being in and around a whole bunch of people that are chasing the same thing is so high.

我认为直觉是：哦，这会变得更加竞争激烈，那为什么不在一个没那么重要的小镇尝试呢？

And I think the intuition is, oh, it's gonna be even more competitive, so wouldn't why it be better to try and do this in a town where it's less of a big deal?

但问题是，你的学习会受到影响，你接触同龄人和导师的机会会大幅减少，而最重要的是，你的选择权会被极大地限制。

But the problem is your learning is impacted, your access to peers and mentors is drastically reduced, and then probably most importantly, your optionality gets cut so dramatically.

人们认为很多成功故事，都归因于运气。

People think that a lot of success stories, they attribute it to luck.

但有一句著名的话说：运气是准备遇上机会的时候。

But there's that famous saying, luck is when preparation meets opportunity.

当你身处中心时，你的准备和机会都会提升十倍。

And when you're in the epicenter, both your preparation and your opportunity go up 10x.

因此，你遇到那种幸运时刻、被带入某个机会的可能性要高得多。

And so your ability to just have that lucky moment where you get brought into something is so much higher.

所以，我认为‘去有行动的地方’这一点，幸运时刻非常关键，因为很多事你其实可以在线上完成。

So the lucky moment is, I think, really important to underscore in terms of going where the action is because there's a lot you can do virtually.

但假设你正在使用ChatGPT，你只会得到你所提问的内容。

But let's just say you're using ChatGPT, you're going to get what you prompt.

换句话说，你就是在寻求某种东西，没错。

In other words, like, you're asking for something Yeah.

而这可能会带你陷入一个死胡同。

And that can take you down a rabbit hole.

但就我个人的经历而言，当然我至今仍看到这种情况：当我2000年搬到硅谷时，回望我的天使投资生涯，回顾所有这些合作，绝大多数都不是我带着明确目的出去寻找的结果。

But there, at least in my lived experience, and certainly I still see this happening, when I moved to Silicon Valley in 2000, and then I look back at my angel investing career, I look back at all these collaborations, the vast majority of them did not come from me going out with an agenda and seeking something.

它们都源于在咖啡店偶然遇见某人。

They came from serendipitous bumping into somebody at a coffee shop.

我之所以认识纳瓦尔·拉维坎特，是因为我当时在向他当时的女友搭讪，而她正在买咖啡。

I literally met Naval Ravikanth because I was hitting on his girlfriend at the time when she was getting her coffee.

我根本不知道他们是一对。

Didn't realize they were together.

再看看加勒特·坎普、凯文·罗斯。

And then you look at Garrett Camp, Kevin Rose.

比如在一次烧烤聚会上，我就认识了凯文·罗斯。

These are, like, at a barbecue, I met Kevin Rose.

你逐个列出这些对你个人和职业发展都具有重大影响的形成性关系。

And you go down the list and you look at all of these formative, massively impactful personally and professionally relationships.

它们几乎都源于偶然的机遇。

They almost all came from serendipity.

除非你身处事件的核心，否则你很难获得这种密度。

And you just don't seem to get that density unless you're in the center of the action.

也许当你责任较少时，搬迁自身会更容易，我确信如此，但我无法想象，如果我没有离开长岛，最终搬到硅谷，我的人生会是什么样子。

And perhaps it's easier to relocate yourself, I'm sure it is, when you have fewer responsibilities, but I can't even imagine what my life would have looked like had I not, you know, left Long Island and then ultimately moved to Silicon Valley.

我也是。

Same for me.

我曾经思考过风险投资这个概念，并打算实践它，任何我能得到的工作我都会毫不犹豫地接受。

I had thought about the notion of venture capital and practicing it and probably would have jumped at any job I could have got.

当我还在奥斯汀的麦克库姆斯商学院时，我曾试图申请奥斯汀风投的面试，但我没成功。

Like when I was at McCombs here in Austin, I tried to get an interview at Austin Ventures, like I didn't get one.

但如果他们答应了，也许我就会在那里开始实践了。

But had they said yes, maybe I practiced there.

我很庆幸那件事没有发生。

And I'm glad that didn't happen.

我在那里实践，正是做这件事的绝佳地点。

Going and practicing it where I did was the exact right place to do it.

我认为，如果你能的话，尽管有经济限制，但如果你想在某个领域出类拔萃，而这个领域有一个中心地带，那你就应该去那里。

I do think if you can, because there are financial constraints, if you wanna be great at a field and that field has an epicenter, I think you should go.

而且，中心地带也有不同类型。

And there are different types of epicenters too.

比如，你想想人工智能——我不是老提这个，但一提到人工智能，你首先想到的肯定是硅谷。

Like, you think about, let's just say AI, not to repeatedly bang that drum, but you could just say, okay, AI, first thing that comes to mind, Silicon Valley.

这可能会稍微跑题，但我记得我问过我的朋友德里克·西弗斯，一位了不起的创业者、哲学家兼程序员。

But it's gonna be a bit of a digression, but I remember asking Derek Sivers, a friend of mine, amazing entrepreneur, kind of philosopher, programmer.

人们可以去查一下他。

People can look him up.

但我问他：当你想到‘成功’这个词时，第一个浮现在你脑海里的人是谁？

But I asked him, who's the first person who comes to mind when you think of the word successful?