#843：2026年重启的战术与战略——精要主义与格雷格·麦基翁（转）

文献中把这个称为时间地标。

The term for this in the literature is temporal landmarks.

所以几乎每个人都熟悉‘新年新我’这个概念，我们都经历过。

So what almost everybody is familiar with this idea of the new year, new you, we all experience that.

这是个新的机会。

Oh, it's a new chance.

关于这方面的研究区分出，这是一种任何让你区分旧我与新我的时刻。

What the research on this is distinguishing is it's like any moment that allows you to distinguish old self to new self.

这种认知上的可塑性非常有帮助，因为我们可以找个借口成为新的自己，升级自我。

And that this is a really helpful cognitive malleability that you have because, oh, we have an excuse to become a new version of me, to upgrade myself.

所以‘新年新我’显然是人们实现这一目标的机会。

So the new year, new you is obviously in a chance for people to do that.

它在某种程度上名声不佳，因为人们会说：‘谁在这里设定了新年决心？’

It gets a bad name in some sense because people say, I mean, everyone says it, you know, oh, well, who here has set New Year's resolutions?

但到了1月7日，你就不再坚持了。

And then by the January 7, you're not doing them anymore.

实际上，我认为人们这样看待这个问题是完全错误的。

And I actually think people are really wrong to say that in a sense, to frame it like that.

我们所需要的只是更多的时间节点，这样我们才能说：是的，我们做了正确的事。

What we just need is more temporal landmarks so that we say, yeah, we did the right things.

如果坚持了七天，那很好，因为这七天是你原本不会做到的。

And if it was seven days, well, that was great because that was seven days you wouldn't have done otherwise.

你还能如何选择那些有意义的、标志全新开始的时刻呢？

How else can you select meaningful sort of tagging fresh start moments?

当然，你的生日是一个这样的机会，你的父母生日或孩子的生日也可以成为这样的时刻。

So of course your birthday is a chance to do that, and so could your parents birthday or so could your child's birthdays.

你可以把每季度的第一天当作这样的节点。

You can have the first day of the quarter.

这样又增加了四个。

So that's an additional four.

识别出有意义的日期，这不仅仅是一个美好的想法。

And so identifying meaningful dates, and this is more than just a nice idea.

我认为人们自己就能意识到他们是否在生活中经历过这种感觉。

I think people would themselves know if they've experienced this in their lives.

没错，这是真实的。

Yeah, this is real.

你希望在2025年增加这类时刻的数量，以便拥有更多的所谓‘全新开始效应’。

You want to increase the number of these you have in 2025 so that you have lots of what's called the fresh start effect.

你希望拥有大量全新开始效应来支持你成为全新的自己。

You want lots of fresh start effects supporting you in getting to the new you.

所以我认为，如果是七天，那就庆祝一下，很好。

So I think, yes, celebrate if it's seven days, great.

如果到了一月的第二周，你还在坚持做这件新事。

If it's two weeks into January, you're doing that new thing.

太棒了。

Fantastic.

为下一个时刻做好准备。

Build in the next one.

今年下一个有意义的日期是什么？

What's the next meaningful date of the year?

这就是你下次改善某事的机会。

And that's your next chance to be able to have an excuse to improve upon something.

我认为我们所有人都是自己思维现状的囚徒。

I think all of us are prisoners to the way our mind currently works.

直到我们成为它的观察者，才得以摆脱这种囚禁。

And we're prisoners until we become observers to it.

所以我认为这些时间节点提供了一个机会，让我们能稍稍与自己拉开距离。

So I think these temporal landmarks are a chance to sort of separate ourselves a bit.

一旦我们进入观察者角色，我的经验是——虽然这么说可能听起来有点玄乎，但问题是：谁在观察这一切？

And the moment we get into that observer role, my experience at least is that, well, it might feel a little esoteric to say this, but it's like, who's observing that?

那才是真正的你。

That's the real you.

而这个观察者并不充满痛苦，也不充满困惑。

And that observer is not so full of pain, not so full of confusion.

观察者实际上非常清晰。

The observer is actually really clear.

因此，每当你能使用不同的工具进入这种状态，每当我们将项目分解并锚定在有意义的日期上——而不是任意的截止日期，而是有意义的日期——这都是一个很好的加速和激励全年前进的方式。

And so anytime you can use different tools to shift into that, anytime we can break down projects and anchor them to meaningful dates, not arbitrary deadlines, but meaningful dates, think is a good accelerating, encouraging way of going through the year.

是的。

Yeah.

除了将事情与日期挂钩外，我还以某种方式，可以说是直觉地，利用时间地标来创建一些实际上是我试图改进的某个方面的测试。

Something that that I've done in addition to pegging things to dates, I've done this somewhat, I suppose, intuitively with the temporal landmarks is creating landmarks that are effectively tests for the x that I'm trying to improve.

因此，我已经为2025年规划了两三个这样的节点，它们是持续三到十天的活动，比如冥想静修。

So I will have and I already have two or three of these blocked out in 2025, which are, let's just say, three to ten day events, which could be a meditation retreat.

也可能是某种在高海拔地区进行的、需要我并不愿培养的体能活动，因为我觉得这些训练很无聊。

It could be something very physical at altitude that's gonna require types of fitness that I am loath to cultivate because I find them boring.

但如果我和亲密的朋友一起去，而我的状态不够好，不仅我会受苦，还会被朋友们无情地嘲笑和调侃——而他们恰恰就应该这么做。

But if I go on this trip with close friends and I am not up to snuff, not only will I suffer, I will be ridiculed and have my balls busted endlessly by my friends who should exactly do that.

通过设立这些——我不想说是最终考试，但确实是某种测试——是的。

And by having these, I don't wanna say final exams, but these tests Yeah.

这些活动本意是令人愉快的，但只有在我提前做好准备的情况下，它们才会真正愉快。

That are intended to be enjoyable, but they're only going to be enjoyable if I do the work ahead of time.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这为我提供了大量动力和保障，让我在某种程度上能管好自己，去做我知道我应该做的事。

It builds in a lot of incentive and insurance that I will behave myself on some level and do what I know I should do.

让我们进入下一个话题吧——不一定非得快速推进，但我希望向大家介绍一些不同的概念和工具，供大家思考是否可以使用。

Let's hop into doesn't have to be rapid fire, but I wanna give people a number of different concepts and tools that they can hopefully contemplate using.

是的。

And Yes.

你可以选择你想先讨论哪个。

I'll let you choose in which order you wanna tackle these.

个人季度外勤，这是我长期以来对你工具箱中这一项非常感兴趣的地方。

Personal quarterly off-site, which is something that I've long been fascinated from your toolkit.

我已经对这个想法着迷很久了。

Been fascinated by that for a while.

所以个人季度外出办公、半小时强力时间，以及一二三法。

So the personal quarterly off-site, the power half hour or half an hour, and then the one two three method.

你想先从哪个开始？

Where would you like to go first?

这个顺序，我觉得其实挺好。

That order, think, is good, actually.

关于个人季度外出办公，如果我从概念上简单说一下，它是速度优先于方向，因为我们生活在一个很容易产生我所说的‘虚假敏捷’的时代。

The personal quarterly off-site, if I put it just conceptually for a second, it's speed over direction because we live in a time where it's so easy to have what I would describe as counterfeit agility.

你行动很快，生活节奏很快，生活本身就是快的，你接收信息、发送信息、做各种事情。

So you're moving fast, life feels fast, life is fast and you're taking messages, you're sending messages and you're doing things.

但这些实际上并没有累积成朝着重要目标的实质性进展。

But actually, they don't add up to a lot of progress towards what matters.

没错。

Right.

这是在一千个方向上各前进一毫米。

It's a millimeter in a thousand directions.

是的。

Yeah.

正是。

Precisely.

所以你不想追求速度胜过方向。

So the speed over direction is what you don't want.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

与此相关的比喻是，可以说飞机在90%的时间里都偏离了航线。

The metaphor to go with it, right, you could say, well, a plane is off track 90% of the time.

它之所以能准时到达目的地，是因为一直在不断调整。

It only gets to where it's supposed to get to at the right time because it's adjusting constantly.

那么，是什么促使我们在生活中确保自己不会偏离轨道太远，以至于某天突然发现：天哪，我已经在这条路上走了五年，而实际上我根本不该踏上这段旅程。

So it's what is the forcing function in our lives to make sure we don't go too far off track and then find, oh my goodness, you know, it's been five years that I've gone down this path when really I shouldn't even been on this journey.

对。

Right.

我以为我要去亚利桑那。

I thought I was going to Arizona.

我却在朝鲜。

I'm in North Korea.

发生什么事了？

What happened?

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

对。

Right.

那会是一个关键时刻，对吧？

That would be a moment, wouldn't it?

所以个人季度外出会议，我的意思是，你可以完全按字面意思来理解。

And so personal quarterly off-site, I mean, you can take it all the way literally.

我确实这么做过，我们会去某个地方，花一个周末或几天时间，深入讨论宏观大局。

I mean, and I have done this where we'll travel to somewhere and take a weekend or take a few days possibly and really talk big picture.

我认为在个人季度外出会议中，有三个核心问题需要解决，尽管实际上不止这三个。

I mean, there's three main questions that I think need to be addressed in a personal quarterly off-site, even though it's more than these three.

但核心是第一个：我们哪些方面投入不足？

But this is the core of it is one, what are the essential things that we're under investing in?

第二个问题是：我们哪些非关键方面投入过度？

The second question is what are the non essential things we're over investing in?

然后，或许并不意外的是：如何在接下来的90天内，尽可能轻松地实现这种转变？

And then perhaps not surprisingly, how can we make it as effortless as possible to be able to make that shift within this next ninety days?

当然，其中还有更多子问题，但我认为明确识别这种张力至关重要。

Now there's more sub questions to it than that, but I think that's the tension that is so important to identify clearly.

但这件事并不一定要这么隆重。

And so it doesn't have to be as major as this, though.

我的意思是，你即使独自一人，或和别人一起花一两个小时，也能取得有意义的进展。

I mean, that's I think you could still make meaningful progress in an hour or two on your own or with someone else.

我喜欢和一个问责伙伴一起做，但即便如此，我认为最佳做法是你自己先完成这个流程。

I like doing it with an accountability partner, but even there, I think the best practice is you fill out this process.

你自己回答这些问题。

You answer these questions yourself.

他们也这么做。

They do it.

然后你们把各自的答案汇总起来，开始交流，不是去谈判，而是进行探索和共同梳理问题。

And then you bring them together and start talking and get into not negotiation exactly, but exploration and working through things.

我认为，个人季度外出反思的一个主要好处，就是直面一个现实：我们每个人都曾迷失方向。

And I think that's one of the primary benefits of a personal quarterly off-site is really facing the reality that all of us are lost.

在我们停下脚步、认真思考、重新理清方向之前，我们都在走错路。

All of us are going in the wrong direction until we pause, think about it, get clear again.

我不觉得自己在某种程度上比其他人更擅长成为极简主义者或更有效地应用这些理念，当然也不是天生就更擅长。

I do not feel like I'm a better essentialist or better applying these ideas in one sense than anybody else, certainly not inherently.

但我认为我比普通人更快地承认这一点，我认为这才是关键。

But I think I admit to it faster than maybe the average person, and I think that's the key.

你能举一个理想中的真实例子吗？当然，不一定要是真实的。

Could you give an example of ideally, a real example, but it doesn't have to be.

尤其是第三点。

But particularly number three.

那么，你正在低估的 essentials 是什么？

So there's the what's the essential that you're underinvesting in?

我相信我坐下来就能找出答案。

I'm sure I could sit down and identify that.

你正在过度投入的非 essentials 是什么？

What's nonessential that you're overinvesting in?

我想我也能列出那份清单。

I think I could also come up with that list.

你如何让做出这种取舍变得尽可能轻松，甚至毫不费力？

How can you make it as effortless or make it effortless to make the trade off?

这正是关键所在。

That is where the rubber hits the road.

我很想听听一个例子，也许是你自己如何应对，或者你看到别人如何应对的。

So I would love to hear an example perhaps of how you've navigated that or seen others navigate it.

我们现在就可以拿你或我来做个示范。

We could do it with me or with you right now.

我愿意试试。

I'm game to try it.

看看我的大脑是否配合，但我很乐意尝试一下。

We'll see how if my brain cooperates, but I'm happy to give it a shot.

好的。

Okay.

那我们现在就对你提出这些问题吧。

So let's just ask these questions with you right now.

让我们来做一次极简主义干预。

Let's do like a little essentialist intervention.

也许我不该这么叫它，但咱们试试吧。

Maybe I shouldn't call it that, but let's try

好的。

it.

当然。

Sure.

那我们就为全年这么做吧。

Well, let's do it for the whole year.

有哪些你觉得自己一直投入不足的重要事项呢？

What are candidates for things that are essential that you feel like you've been underinvesting in?

我认为在过去一个月里，我投入不足的是物理治疗以及腿部、臀部和下背部的训练，这几乎是字面意义上的投资，因为长期来看，这种投入会像复利一样带来回报。

I think what I've been underinvesting in in the last month, which is something that I need to invest in in almost the most literal sense because it's something that will have a payoff in the long term as it compounds is physical therapy and training for the legs and glutes and lower back.

因为我已经有慢性疼痛了，我们就说是两年吧，可能更久了。

Because I've had this chronic pain for, let's just call it two years, it's probably longer Mhmm.

在这些短暂的喘息间隙中。

With these brief windows of respite.

嗯。

And Mhmm.

曾经有一段时间，我非常规律地进行这项训练，并取得了间歇性的进展。

There was a period of time where I was doing this training very consistently and having intermittent progress.

大约一个月前，我在一个非常特定的部位注射了一针，这极大地缓解了我的背痛。

And then about, let's just call it a month ago, I had a injection in a very particular place, which helped the back pain tremendously.

我可以列出一大堆借口：家庭事务、医疗状况，以及其他各种原因。

And I could give a litany of excuses, family, sort of medical situation, and various things.

我一直在忽视它，部分原因是现在背痛得到了缓解，有了这段喘息期。

I have been neglecting that, In part because I'm having this window of relief from the lower back pain.

所以这并不是一个迫在眉睫的问题，但我知道它迟早会变得紧迫。

So it's not an immediate pressing issue, but I know it will be.

所以我们就这么说吧：这是我正在忽视的一项重要事务，尽管我们一结束这段录音，我就会立即开始这项训练。

So let's just say that and it's something essential that I'm under investing in even though I am going to be doing this particular training as soon as we finish this recording.

所以它还没有完全退出舞台。

So it hasn't completely left the arena.

但我一直对此不够一致，而我知道它对我的健康至关重要。

But it's something that I've been inconsistent with that I know is fundamental to my well-being.

这算一个。

That'd be one.

首先，这是个很好的例子，因为当我问人们什么是你投入不足的重要事项时，总有一些非常可预测的答案。

Well, first of all, it's a great example because when I ask people what's essential that you're under investing in, there are some really predictable answers.

其中之一肯定与健康、健身有关。

And one of them is certainly will be health related, fitness related.

这是他们已经知道的事情。

It's something they already know about.

他们的良知已经在提醒他们了。

Their conscience is already tapping them about.

但我发现了一条奇怪的逆向优先法则：我如今确实相信，在任何给定时刻，我们生活中最重要的事情，恰恰是最不可能被完成的。

But what I have learned is this strange law of inverse prioritization, which is I literally believe now that the most important thing in our lives at any given time is the least likely thing to get done.

这与我所看到和曾经经历过的相符。

It's sort of squares with what I see and what I've experienced at points.

你认为为什么会这样？

Why do you think that is?

我认为其中一个原因是它太重要了。

I think one of the reasons is because it's so important.

在这件事上失败的风险远高于你生活中的其他任何事。

The risk of failing at it is much higher than anything else in your life.

因此加剧了拖延的感觉。

So it adds to this procrastination feeling.

表现焦虑。

Performance anxiety.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Yeah.

对于这件重要的事，你会有极高的表现焦虑，因为采取行动意味着你可能会失败，或者暴露它根本行不通。

Very high performance anxiety around that important thing because doing something about it shows that you can fail or might show that, yeah, it doesn't work.

它行不通。

It doesn't work.

然后我们又回到了这件高风险事情的起点。

And now we'll be back to the beginning on this thing that's so high stakes.

而事情越重要，它就越脆弱。

And then the more important the thing is, the more vulnerable it is.

所以，你知道，你想要回避，你知道，我们都知道应该这么做。

So then, you know, you want to avoid, you know, we all know we should.

勇气是一种美德，但勇气总是让人感觉糟糕。

The courage is a virtue, but courage always feels terrible.

我的意思是，这是一种非常糟糕的感觉。

I mean, like, it is an awful feeling.

这和你看到别人表现出勇气时想象的情景并不一样。

It's not like you imagine when you see other people being courageous.

勇气如果没有恐惧作为前提，是不存在的。

Well, courage doesn't exist without the prerequisite of fear.

你感到害怕，但还是去做了那件事。

It's you feel fear and you do the thing anyway.

如果没有恐惧，‘勇气’这个词和这个概念就不成立。

Like, without the fear, courage as a word and concept doesn't apply.

没错。

Yep.

你知道，还有很多层原因叠加在这一点上。

You know, there's lots of layers of reasons that add on to that.

其中之一是那种假装完美的完美主义，它导致了拖延。

One is sort of pretend perfectionism that drives procrastination.

除非我能完美地完成这件事，你知道，除非我真的准备好了，除非我处在完美的情境中，除非我能全身心投入去做。

Well, unless I'm going to do this perfectly, you know, unless I'm really ready to do this, unless I'm in the perfect situation, unless I'm going to do it for the full amount of time.

所以这些额外的规则。

So all of these additional rules.

是的，我觉得我给自己设定了太多待办事项，比如追求完美的时长，本质上就是让自己注定失败。

Yeah, I think I've set up basically set myself up to fail with the number of checkboxes, like the perfect length.

当我们谈到这一点时，我直接跳到了最后。

And as we're talking about this, just in terms of I'm skipping to the end.

我们还没说到第二点，我相信我还有很多，但就让事情变得毫不费力而言，就像我在其他领域也做过的一样。

We haven't hit number two, which I'm sure if I've got plenty, but in terms of making it effortless, it's just like and I I've done this in other areas too.

就是缩小规模。

It's just scale it down.

对吧？

Right?

不要取消整个训练环节。

Don't eliminate the session.

如果是十分钟，那就十分钟，而不是一小时。

If it's ten minutes, it's ten minutes instead of an hour.

但不要在日历上填满大量缺席训练的零记录。

But don't put a lot of zeros on the calendar in terms of missed training sessions.

就像，如果只能花五分钟，那就只能花五分钟。

It's like, if it's gotta be five minutes, it's gotta be five minutes.

但六十分钟可以是理想时长，而零分钟是绝对不允许的。

But, like, sixty can be the ideal, but what's not allowed is zero.

这就是要有最大值和最小值。

It's having a maximum and minimum.

就像，有一个底线，但也有一个上限，两边都有限制。

Like, it's a a lower bar, but also the higher bar, like a limit on both.

当我听到你说，哦，一小时会是最好的，或者我觉得你这么说的，我替你感到压力山大。

And when I hear you say, oh, well, an hour would be perfect or I think that's what you said, I felt overwhelmed for you.

我 literally 想：什么？

Literally, I'm like, an what?

一小时？

An hour?

你知道，一小时，我连加一小时物理治疗都做不到，尽管我确信自己也该做些别的事情。

That is, you know, like, oh, I can't add an hour of physical therapy even though I'm sure there are things I should be doing too.

所以我喜欢用‘微暴流’这个词来形容这个。

And so I like the term microburst for this.

这是一种环境现实，对吧？

That's an environmental reality, right?

就像那些只有十分钟的风暴，微暴流。

Like these storms that are just these ten minute storms, a microburst.

但实际上是设置一个十分钟的计时器。

But actually setting a timer for ten minutes.

关键是，你在十分钟结束时停下。

And the key is that you end at the end of the ten minutes.

你正是用这种自律来实现这一点。

That's what you're using the discipline for.

你会说：好吧，我要连续十天每天做十分钟，到十分钟时就停止。

And you say, okay, I'm going to do that ten days in a row, ten minutes, and when it hits ten minutes, I'm done.

这样第二天你就知道，这很简单。

So that the next day, you know, this is small.

我真的会按照时间到了就停下，因此我会继续坚持下去。

Like I really will end when it says so, and therefore I'll carry it on.

这种做法的应用几乎没有任何限制。

There's just almost no end to the application of that.

我正在写完这本日记时，刚刚反思了这一点。

I was just reflecting on this as I was finishing this journal.

我需要去买下一本了。

I need to get the next one.

你知道，这就像是一月份的事。

You know, this is like in January.

到那时，我就已经坚持写日记十四年了。

That will be fourteen years that I've kept a journal.

我认为我一天都没有错过。

And I don't think I've missed a day.

也许我偶尔漏过，如果我全部翻一遍的话，但我认为我没有漏过。

I might have done, you know, if I went through it all, but I don't think I have.

但原因是我刚开始时，上限是五句话，下限是一句话。

But the reason is because my upper bound when I first started was five sentences and my lower bound was one sentence.

而通常情况下，日记的做法恰恰相反。

And what normally happens with journals is the exact opposite.

第一天，人们会写三页纸。

First day, people write three pages.

但到了第二天，这种做法就结束了，因为第二天他们会觉得：我没时间做这个。

And by day two, that is done by day two because on day two, they're like, don't have an hour for this.

于是他们就想：那我明天再写吧。

And so then they go, oh, I'll do it tomorrow.

到了第三天，他们心里觉得得花两个小时来补。

And then day three, now they've got to do two hours in their mind.

所以还没开始就已经结束了。

And so it's over before they've begun.

所以我认为，对你来说，关键的一点是十分钟。

So I think that's one key thing for you is the ten minutes.

我已经坚持了十分钟。

I've done it ten minutes.

在连续完成十天之前，我都会坚持十分钟。

Until I have done ten days in a row, I'm doing ten minutes.

做这一点点远比什么都不做要好得多，因为你总想做到完美。

It's way way better to do that little than than to not do any because you want to do it perfectly.

是的。

Yeah.

这是个不错的建议。

That's good advice.

我觉得还有很多方法可以让这件事变得更有趣。

Then I mean, I think there's so many things that you could do to make this more enjoyable.

那本特定的书是什么？

What is a certain book?

可能是播客，但也可能是书，或者其他一些音频内容，或者一部电影、一部有趣的剧集。

Could be a podcast, but it could be a book or some other thing, audio thing that you're only gonna get to listen to or a movie, know, fun show.

这是我唯一能看这部作品的时间，也就是我做这十分钟的时候。

This is the only time I get to watch that is the ten minutes that I'm gonna do this.

所以你要把它们联系起来。

And so you link it together.

今年我读了很多经典作品，因为当我跑步、锻炼或旅行时，我都在听一些有史以来最伟大的文学作品。

I I've gone through so many classics this year because while I'm running, while I'm doing exercise, while I'm traveling, I'm listening to some of the greatest literature ever written.

我几乎觉得这就像作弊一样。

I just almost feel like I'm it is like cheat code.

我是在利用系统漏洞。

I'm cheating the system.

当我做其他事情的时候，智慧、知识和娱乐却源源不断地流入我的脑海。

I am just having wisdom and knowledge and entertainment poured into me while I'm doing something else.

我真的是用一份时间获得了双倍收获。

I really am getting two for the price of one.

所以这是另一种做法。

And so that's another way to do it.

当然，你可以设置一个强制机制，比如如果你不做这件事，我们以前也听过这类做法，你就得向一个你并不支持的慈善机构或政党支付一笔钱，或者你可以创建这种强制性的赌注。

Of course, you could have a forcing function where if you don't do it, we've heard these things before, but if you don't do it then you have to pay a certain amount to a charity or to a political party, not of your choosing or you can create these forcing function bets.

曾经有个人正面临一个非常重要的权衡抉择。

Had somebody who was who had a really important trade off they were trying to make.

而他如果没能完成这个抉择，惩罚就是喝掉一瓶他最爱的葡萄酒，那酒每瓶300美元，我不知道是什么酒，但他每天如果没完成任务，就得倒掉一杯。

And their penalty for not making the trade off would be their favorite wine was $300 a bottle of some I don't know wine, but and they he would have to pour down one glass of it if he didn't complete it on this day.

这就是他的强制机制。

And that was his forcing function.

这个惩罚对他来说太痛苦了，反而给了他一个借口。

And that was so painful for him that it really gave him an excuse.

我的意思是，这是一个有趣的借口，但能让他保持正轨、持续行动。

I mean, it's a fun excuse, but an excuse to be on track and to be consistent.

所以，我们可以做的各种方法还有很多。

So I mean, there's all sorts of things that we can do.

甚至像你现在在这里公开谈论这件事。

Even you publicly talking about it here.

好的。

Okay.

现在每个人都知道了。

Well, now everybody knows.

我的意思是，所有这些方法都是为了让你更容易成功，消除那些让事情变得比必要更困难的因素。

I mean, all of these things are to try to stack the decks in your favor and to try to remove those things that make it harder than it needs to be.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我已经在考虑一些事情了。

I mean, I'm I'm already thinking about a few things.

我的意思是，这非常基础。

I mean, it's very basic.

但由于家庭方面的情况，我目前不得不待在这里。

But for instance, you know, I'm staying due to the circumstances with the family stuff.

我不在家。

I'm not at home.

我住在酒店里，需要前往某个地点，签到并签署各种免责协议，才能做任何事情。

I'm staying in hotels, and I need to travel to a location and sign in and sign waivers and so on just to do any of this.

你知道的。

You know?

所以，好吧。

So it's like, alright.

听好了。

Look.

幸运的是，我有这个预算。

I've fortunately got the budget.

我今天晚点就出去，买一张厚度适中的瑜伽垫，直接放在酒店房间里。

I should just go out later today, get a reasonably thick yoga mat, and just stick it in my hotel room.

其实根本不需要别的东西。

Don't actually need anything else.

而现在，因为地板是混凝土的，我没法做我原本打算做的事，否则关节会非常难受。

And currently, because it's concrete floor, I can't do what I would intend to do because it'll be brutally unpleasant on the joints.

好吧。

And okay.

这其实是个可以解决的问题。

Like that's a solvable problem.

对吧？

Right?

而且显然，我正在尝试叠加一些毫不费力的点子。

And obviously, I'm trying to sort of stack effortless ideas.

其实并不非得做这些事情。

One does not have to do any of these things.

关键在于问题本身。

The question is the key.

你如何让它变得毫不费力？

How do you make it effortless?

我的意思是，好吧，在酒店里，酒店里的人可以替你去做这些事。

I mean, okay, in a hotel, somebody in that hotel can go do that for you.

你可以找个人花钱帮你做。

Like you could find somebody to pay to do it.

这一切听起来就像是，哦，香槟式的解决方案。

And that all sounds like, oh yeah, champagne type of solution.

但问题是，这也让事情变得毫不费力。

But it's like, well, that also makes it effortless.

关键在于不断问这个问题，并给你的大脑足够的时间去进行谷歌搜索，寻找简单的解决方案。

It's all about trying to ask that question and giving your brain enough time to do a Google search, looking for easy solutions.

我认为，在那些不自信的完美主义者心中，对此有着强烈的抵触情绪。

And I think there's such a in insecure overachiever, there's such a pushback about this in the mind.

那简单的解决方案是什么？

Well, what's the easy solution?

不，不，不可能是这样。

Oh, no, no, that can't be it.

我们甚至都不允许这个搜索过程发生。

That we don't even allow the search to take place.

是的。

Yeah.

而且作为那个不安全感驱动的成就者，这个标签我在谈话过程中越来越喜欢了，它确实很贴切地描述了我。

Well, also as the insecure achiever, which is a label I've grown quite fond of while we've been talking, that probably characterized me pretty well.

我和你一样。

You and me both.

我们都身处其中。

We're both in this.

是的。

Yeah.

这些成就型人物往往在许多方面都取得了一定的成功，因为他们擅长解决问题。

These achiever types often have a modicum of success in any number of ways because they are good at solving problems.

因此，他们的倾向是问：我该如何完成X？

So the inclination is to ask, how can I do x?

但这句话的开头不应该是这样。

But that's not how the sentence needs to start.

对吧？

Right?

这句话可以是：除了我，还有谁能做这件事？

The sentence could be, who could do this besides me?

或者谁知道呢？

Or who knows?

也许Instacart可以帮我买个瑜伽垫。

Maybe Instacart could go get me a yoga mat.

对吧？

Right?

它不一定要是，你知道的，克劳德管家那样的角色。

It doesn't necessarily have to be, you know, Claude the butler.

我不是在说，我会乘坐我的七层飞行器去我的史高治·麦克老鸭的办公室，从他的金币泳池里捞些金币。

I'm not suggesting that it's like, well, I'll just take my seven story hovercraft down to my Scrooge McDuck's office, and we'll take some gold coins out of his swimming pool.

但要重新框架和改写你习惯性问自己的问题。

But reframing and rephrasing the questions that you habitually ask yourself.

这是我努力留意的一件事。

This is something I do try to pay attention to.

但我的惯常做法通常是：好吧。

But my go to is typically like, alright.

看。

Look.

要让别人熟悉这些乱七八糟的事情，得花我太长时间了。

It's gonna take me too long to get somebody up to speed on all this bullshit.

我还是自己来做吧。

I'm just gonna do it myself.

我怎样才能最轻松地完成这件事？

How can I do this as easily as possible?

但这仍然构成一个障碍。

But that still presents a hurdle.

尤其是在当今自动化时代，通过他人、应用程序或零售商来完成这类事情，几乎对所有听这个播客的人都是可行的。

And especially in this current day of automation, getting someone else or someone else vis a vis an app or a retailer vis a vis an app to do something like this is available to almost anyone who is listening to this podcast, practically speaking.

是的。

Yeah.

你看，沃伦·巴菲特是这样描述的。

Look, Warren Buffett described it this way.

他说，今天生活在发达世界，你拥有的机会、资源和学习、旅行的可能性，都超过了洛克菲勒。

He said to be alive today in the developed world, you have more opportunity, more means, more chances for learning and for travel and so on than Rockefeller did.

这对我来说是一个很好的视角转变，因为你提到了Instacart。

And that was such a good reframe for me because you talk about Instacart.

现在有太多方式可以让事情发生。

There are so many ways to make things happen now.

而且我们几乎所有人都能接触到这些资源。

And almost all of us do have access to those things.

我并不是想淡化这一点。

And I'm not trying to minimize this.

过时的是这种思维方式。

It's the way of thinking that's outdated.

问题就出在这个集群上。

That's where the cluster is.

我们社会的执行能力现在真的非常惊人。

The execution ability in our societies are really pretty unbelievable right now.

现在还有一种策略值得考虑。

Now there's one more tactic worth considering here.

《轻松》一书中的一个原则是敢于做得糟糕。

One of the principles in effortless is the courage to be rubbish.

并在更短的时间内完成。

And doing it in a shorter period of time.

你可以说，嗯，这就是那个粗糙的版本。

And that's one of the things you could say, well, that's the rubbish version.

但你知道，你说的是瑜伽垫，我想，是啊，我能理解为什么这样有效，但你也可以用别的东西。

But, you know, you're saying the yoga mat and and I think, well, yeah, I can see why that works, but you could also use something else.

第一次做时并不非得用瑜伽垫。

It doesn't have to be a yoga mat on the first time today.

嗯。

Yeah.

如果我们想把这个简化成一个粗糙的原型，那就是，好吧。

I'm being if we wanted to scale that down to dirty prototype, it's like, okay.

让我拿些毛巾之类的东西。

Well, let me just grab some of the, like, towels or something else.

这可能会有点麻烦，但总比没有好。

And it's gonna kinda be a pain in the ass, but it's better than nothing.

对吧？

Right?

总比什么都不做要好。

It's better than doing a zero.

简单感谢一下我们的赞助商，马上回来继续节目。

Just a quick thanks to our sponsors, and we'll be right back to the show.

正如你们许多人知道的，过去几年里，我一直睡在今天赞助商Helix Sleep提供的Midnight Luxe床垫上。

As many of you know, for the last few years, I've been sleeping on a midnight luxe mattress from today's sponsor, Helix Sleep.

我楼下客房里也有一张，朋友们的反馈一直都非常好。

I also have one in the guest bedroom downstairs, and feedback from friends has always been fantastic.

他们根本不用我提醒，就会主动提到这一点。

It's something they comment on without any prompting from me whatsoever.

我最近也有机会体验了Helix Sunset Elite床垫。

I also recently had a chance to test the Helix Sunset Elite.

Sunset Elite在正确的位置提供了卓越的舒适感和恰当的支撑。

The Sunset Elite delivers exceptional comfort while putting the right support in the right spots.

它由五层定制泡沫组成，包括一个带有完整周边分区腰椎支撑的底层，以及中间层采用优质泡沫和微型弹簧，营造出柔软贴合的触感。

It is made with five tailored foam layers, including a base layer with full perimeter zoned lumbar support right where I need it, and middle layers with premium foam and micro coils that create a soft contouring feel.

Helix提供一百晚试睡期、快速免费配送和十五年保修。

Helix offers a one hundred night sleep trial, fast free shipping, and a fifteen year warranty.

所以赶紧去看看吧。

So check it all out.

现在你在他们的网站上购买任何产品都能享受20%的折扣，全场通用。

And now you can get 20% off anything on their website, so site wide.

所以请前往 helixsleep.com/tim。

So just go to helixsleep.com/tim.

再重复一次，helixsleep.com/tim。

One more time, helixsleep.com/tim.

有了 Helix，更好的睡眠从现在开始。

With Helix, better sleep starts now.

嘿，大家。

Hey, folks.

我是蒂姆。

Tim here.

我与 Exploding Kittens 的卓越团队共同打造的畅销卡牌游戏《Coyote》，刚刚荣获 2025 年 Pop Insider 最佳极客游戏奖，以及 2025 年 Made for Mums 玩具奖最佳圣诞袜填充奖。

My best selling card game Coyote, which I made with the amazing team at Exploding Kittens, just won the Pop Insider best geeky game of 2025 and also best stocking filler in the Made for Mums Toy Awards twenty twenty '5.

它在各处都在打折。

It is on sale everywhere.

它很便宜。

It's cheap.

它很容易上手。

It's fast to learn.

它有五分之四点八的评分。

It has 4.8 stars out of five.

人们都非常喜欢它。

People are loving it.

前往 Coyotegame.com 可以找到所有零售商，但你到处都能买到。

Coyotegame.com will take you to all the retailers, but you can find it everywhere.

这是一款需要快速思考、更快大笑的游戏。

It is a game of thinking fast and laughing faster.

想象一下猜谜游戏遇上热土豆，再加一堆脑力乐趣。

Think charades meets hot potato meets a bunch of brain fun.

它对大脑很有好处。

It's good for your head.

它非常适合有10岁孩子的家庭，或者内心仍保有童真的成年人，又或者那些不把自己太当回事的人。

It's perfect for families with kids aged 10 or adults who are kids at heart or don't take themselves too seriously.

许多成年人喜欢这个游戏。

A lot of adults love this game.

正如我所说，它在任何地方都能买到。

And as I said, it's available everywhere.

亚马逊、沃尔玛、塔吉特，还有八千多个零售点，你想得到的都有。

Amazon, Walmart, Target, 8,000 plus retail locations, you name it.

所以请去试试吧。

So please check it out.

我非常喜欢制作它。

I loved making it.

人们真的非常喜欢它。

People are really enjoying it.

它在网上有三亿到四亿多次的游戏玩法观看量。

It has 300 or 400,000,000 plus social views of gameplay online.

去试试吧。

And try it.

在这个假期季尽情享受吧。

Enjoy it this holiday season.

去试试吧。

Check it out.

Coyotegame.com，再强调一次。

Coyotegame.com one more time.

那就是 coyotegame.com，或者你购买游戏的任何地方。

That's coyotegame.com or anywhere you buy your games.

现在回到本期节目。

Now back to the episode.

我非常想听听你对进行事前验尸的看法，因为我觉得你对此已经深思熟虑了很久。

So I'd love to hear your thoughts on doing a premortem because I have found that this seems to be something you've given quite a bit of thought to.

我提到这一点的原因是，我认为很多人在即将达阵前反而会手忙脚乱，这是因为她们没有考虑可能出错的地方。

And the reason I bring it up is I think a lot of people fumble sort of right before the touchdown, so to speak, and that's because they don't think about what could go wrong.

也许他们已经回答了很多问题。

And there are lots of questions maybe they have answered.

对吧？

Right?

我刚参加完公司的一次户外活动。

And I just came from a company off-site.

我们在录制前聊了聊，讨论了我们曾经在哪里、现在在哪里、以及我们希望去哪里。

We were chatting earlier today before recording where we talked about where have we been, where are we now, where do we wanna be.

我们覆盖了很多这方面的话题，但有一个问题我们其实没怎么深入思考过——我们可能只是名义上问了一下：有没有什么障碍？

We covered a lot of that ground, but one of the questions that we didn't really think about as much, We did maybe in some nominal way ask, like, are there any blockers?

但我们没有明确地问：最有可能阻碍我们达成目标（即我们想去的地方）的因素是什么？

But we didn't explicitly ask, you know, what are the most likely things to stop us from getting there, meaning where we wanna go?

这正是我非常想提升的一项技能，我虽然断断续续地实践过，但也许你可以具体说明一下，如果人们还没理解我举的例子，这个过程究竟是怎样的。

And that's something I really want to hone as a skill, which I've done intermittently, but maybe you could just lay out what that looks like if people aren't grasping the example that I'm giving.

那么，这个‘事前验尸’到底是什么？

But what is this pre mortem?

我认为，如果你想在最重要的事情上取得最优进展，那么使用战略叙事是一种非常有效的方法。

I think if you want to make optimal progress on what's essential, then using a strategic narrative is a really helpful way to go about this.

我刚和海豹突击队的领导层做了一次这样的环节。

I just did a session like this with the leadership of the Navy SEALs.

但这并不是我们做的唯一事情，只是其中一部分。

And this wasn't the only thing that we did, but this was part of it.

不是写出来，而是画出：你们曾经在哪里？

Was to not to write out, to draw where have you been?

你们现在在哪里？

Where are you now?

你们希望在哪里？

Where do you want to be?

然后是你们现在关注的第四个问题。

And then this fourth question that you're focusing on.

是什么会阻碍我们做到这一点？

What is going to keep us from doing it?

是什么在阻止我们？

What's stopping us?

阻碍我们的是什么？

What's in the way?

于是，所有这些指挥官及以上级别的人都在画图。

And so you have all of these commanders and above drawing.

然后我们查看所有的画作。

And then we're looking at all the drawing.

这些画图不仅仅是为了好玩或做噱头。

The drawing is not just it's not just to be fun or gimmick.

这是一种促使我们获得清晰认知的强制性方法。

It's another forcing function to get to clarity.

躲在数字、过多的文字和过多的要点背后很容易。

It's easy to hide behind numbers and too many words and too many bullet points.

如果你必须创作一幅图像，它就会迫使大脑的某一部分活跃起来。

Like if you have to create an image, it forces a certain part of your brain to light up.

于是他们就这么做了。

And so they did that.

但这样一来，它让我们能够去审视，比如，阻碍你实现目标的那幅图像，首先，它变得具体可感，使你能够真正地去应对它。

But then what it enables us to do to look at, in this case, an image of what's going to keep you from achieving your outcome is that first of all, it becomes tangible so that you can actually prosecute it.

但那可能根本不是问题所在。

Well, that might not really be the issue.

那只是你的一种想法，但这种想法其实是过时的。

That is a thought that you have, but that thought is actually outdated thought.

这实际上基于一种假设，并非真实情况。

That's not really what it is based on an assumption.

所以在试图解决这个障碍之前，你需要先去审视它。

So you need to prosecute it before you try to solve that obstacle.

你需要问自己：这真的是一个障碍吗？

You need to say, well, is it really an obstacle?

这仅仅是过去我们一贯的做法吗？

Is that just the way we've been doing it in the past?

我们是如何把它复杂化的？

How have we overcomplicated it?

每个组织，每一个组织，在过度复杂化方面都遵循一种可预测的模式。

Every organization, every single organization follows a predictable pattern with over complicating.

每个社会都做同样的事情。

Every society does the same thing.

约瑟夫·泰恩特写了一本关于这个主题的精彩著作，名为《复杂社会的崩溃》，他在书中指出：所有社会都会变得脆弱，因为它们解决的问题增加了过多的复杂性。

There's a brilliant book written about this by Joseph Tainter called The Collapse of Complex Societies in which he says, look, all societies become fragile because they solve problems that add too much complexity.

而除了失败之外，没有其他机制能够减少这种复杂性。

And then there's no mechanism for reducing that complexity other than failure.

在他看来，社会最脆弱的状态是：维持当前复杂程度所需的资源已经耗尽了你所有的可用资源。

The most fragile state for society in his analysis is that it requires all of the resources you have available to maintain the current level of complexity.

因此，下一个重大问题是什么已经无关紧要了。

And so then it doesn't matter what the next massive problem is.

他研究了数十个不同的社会崩溃案例，有的因饥荒，有的因战争，有的因内乱。

He studied all these, you know, dozens of different societies that have collapsed and one's for famine and one's because of war and one's because of civil unrest.

我的意思是，每个原因看起来都不同，但他认为，它们本质上是一回事。

I mean, every cause looks different, but he's like, they're the same thing.

这只不过是另一个大问题，而你已经没有资源去应对了。

It's just another massive problem and you don't have any resources to handle it.

所以，在你问完‘是什么在阻碍我们’之后，第一件事就是停下来思考一下。

So the first thing to do once you've asked the question, what's getting in the way is to just pause on it.

我为什么觉得这是阻碍？

Why do I think that's getting the way?

这真的是问题所在吗？

Is that really the problem?

这又回到了对问题本身着迷，而不是对解决方案着迷。

And it's back to this falling in love with the problem, not the solution.

高绩效的人、高绩效的管理者，以及在这种情况下，高绩效的指挥官和高级指挥官。

And high performance people and high performance executives, and in this case, the high performing commanders and major commanders.

他们生来就是为了执行任务。

I mean, they are built to execute.

他们是精英中的精英，擅长让事情发生。

They're the elite of the elite at being able to make something happen.

但问题是，你如何挑战这种优势，以便首先问：我们是否找到了正确的问题？

But the problem is, how do you challenge that strength so that you first go, have we identified the right problem?

这真的是问题吗？

Is this really the issue?

我们为什么认为这是关键？

Why do we think this is the thing?

我们为什么认为这是障碍？

Why do we think this is getting the way?

这是思维过程中非常重要的部分。

That's really nontrivial part of the thought process.

如果你真的认为自己已经 pinpointed 并解锁了真正的问题，正如我所说，大多数有能力缺陷的人会犯错，没有深入追究它。

If you really think you've pinpointed and unlocked the real issue, which as I say, most people with the curse of competence make the mistake of not prosecuting it.

那么，当然，你现在会说：好吧，我们确实认为这是障碍。

Then, of course, now you're saying, okay, well, we really do think this is the obstacle.

我们确实认为这是问题。

We do think this is the problem.

因此，为应对意外情况做好充分缓冲是非常重要的，要明白事情总会突然出现。

Then it's really creating a lot of buffer for that to expect the unexpected, to know that things will come up.

我的意思是，我们一开始讨论的例子。

I mean, your example that we've started this conversation with.

对吧？

Right?

比如说，我假设两个月前，你根本不知道这件事会发生。

Like, let's say, I assume two months ago, you didn't know this was going to happen.

但现在它发生了，并且产生了如此大的影响。

And here it is, and it's having all this effect.

我们不知道2025年会发生什么，但我敢打任何赌，几乎任何金额，他们都将在2025年遇到一些尚未准备好的突发状况。

And it's like we don't know what will happen in 2025, but I I bet anybody, almost any amount of money that they will have such things come up in 2025 that they're not yet prepared for.

如果你把未来只想象成完美的最佳情况，那你就是在为自己制造令人沮丧、压力巨大且执行糟糕的局面。

If you think about the future as only perfect best case scenario, you are setting yourself up for really frustrating, stressful, poor execution.

你想想那些最优秀的人，比如我想到的菲尔普斯。

The best performers you think here like I think of Phelps.

想想菲尔普斯的过程。

Think about Phelps process.

当他们与教练鲍勃·鲍曼一起制定战略叙事时，实际上他们并不是字面上这么做，而是梳理出他们过去的位置、想要到达的目标，以及可能遇到的阻碍。

So when they're creating the coach, Bob Bowman and Phelps, effectively their strategic narrative, Effectively, they don't literally do it, but drawing out where they've been, where they want to go, what could get in the way.

这个清单很长，比我原先想象的要长得多，因为他已经在顶级水平上多次参赛。

The list is a long list, longer than I realized because, of course, he's performed so many times at elite level.

除了其他竞争对手，还有什么真正可能在奥运会上造成阻碍呢？

Well, what really can get in the way at the Olympics other than the other competitors?

哦，不会吧。

Oh, no.

他们对可能的问题进行了详尽而复杂的识别。

They got a long and complex identification of possible problems.

他们提到的一件事让我感到很有趣，当我与鲍勃讨论这个时，他说：在中国或任何一届奥运会上，条件都会比他平时训练的环境更差。

One of the things that they said, which is was interesting to me when I talked to Bob about this, he said, well, the conditions in China or in any Olympics is that they will be worse than the conditions he's used to training in.

这以前从未出现在我的脑海中，因为我一直觉得一切都如此非凡。

That never occurred to me before because I just sort of always looked so extraordinary.

你只是假设运动员在镜头外都有很棒的体验。

You just assume that the athletes are having great experiences off camera.

但他却说，事实从来都不是这样。

And he's like, that's never how it is.

情况总是要混乱得多。

It's always much more chaotic.

总会遇到更多问题。

There's always many more problems.

条件从来都不理想。

The conditions aren't ideal.

所以他的目标是，在如此异常的情况下，如何让菲尔普斯的体验尽可能正常？

So his goal was, how can I make Phelps experience as normal as possible in really abnormal circumstances?

所以他们做了一些事情。

So some of the things that they do.

好吧，他们有一套固定流程，确保他在每场比赛前两小时就到场。

Okay, they have a set routine so that he's there two hours before every race.

这预留了太多时间，尤其是对我这样时间观念很模糊的人来说。

That's a lot of buffer, especially for me who can be quite time blind.

你知道吗？

You know?

比如，我很容易就准时到或者晚几分钟，但提前两小时到就太夸张了。

Like, it's easy to just show up right at the time or a couple of minutes late, two hours ahead of time.

为什么？

Why?

因为不管发生什么，你现在都有了缓冲时间。

Because there wouldn't no matter what happens, you have buffer now.

他们会在泳池里按照正常流程进行，让他即使在异常环境中也能感到正常。

They're in the pool following a normal routine so that he can feel normal even though everything's abnormal.

所以他们会一直做同样的事情，直到赛前四十五分钟，他坐在按摩床上，但从不躺下，因为这是惯例。

So they're doing the same thing until forty five minutes when he sits on the massage table, never lies down because it's routine.

你能常规化的一切，都要把它常规化。

You routinize everything you can routinize.

当他到达集合时间时，他会坐下，在一侧放一条毛巾，泳镜放在另一侧，这样就没人能坐在他旁边。

When he comes to the call time, he sits down, puts a towel next to him on one side, his goggles on the other so that no one can sit next to him.

你根本不需要任何其他干扰。

You just don't need another detraction.

这是你可以在日常流程中掌控的另一件事。

It's another thing you can control in the routine.

当他走上跳台准备起跳时，他会听同样的音乐。

He's listening to the same music when he gets up to the board to jump off.

他总是从左侧上台，并且在上去之前总会先试一次。

He's getting on always from the left hand side, always tries it before he gets up there.

所有这些都源于之前识别出的潜在问题。

All of this is as a result of having identified previously problems that could come up.

如果你按这个顺序执行，就能消除所有执行中的问题。

And if you do it in this sequence, then you've mitigated all those execution problems.

当他站起来跳入泳池时，每次都会以一种非常独特的菲尔普斯式方式拍打双臂。

When he stands to jump into the pool, he flaps his arms in a very particular Phelpsian way every time.

这只是提前的体能准备。

That's just the physical preparation in advance.

他还有一套心理准备流程，比如在北京奥运会前的十年里，他每天晚上和早上都会被要求观看录像。

He also had mental preparation processes that included, for example, for ten years before the Beijing Olympics, he is every night and every morning told to put in the videotape.

你可以看到这种习惯持续了多久。

You can see how long it's been going on for.

播放录像。

Put in the videotape.

这意味着要从头到尾、慢动作地想象一场完美的比赛。

And it means to imagine the perfect race from end to end in slow motion.

但它也包括一些练习，比如如果泳镜进水了，你会怎么做？

But it also includes exercises like what will you do if your goggles fill with water?

所以，即使泳镜进水了，也要逐划想象完美的比赛过程，类似这样的心理准备循环有很多。

So imagine stroke by stroke, perfect race, even though your goggles are filled with water and so on, like lots of different mental preparation cycles.

事实上，在其中一场比赛中，泳镜确实进水了，你可以想象，如果你从未预见到这种情况，从未在心理上做好准备，那就完了。

And in fact, that is what happened in one of the races is the goggles did fill with water, which you could just imagine how just if if you have never anticipated that, never thought through it psychologically, mentally, that's it.

那已经结束了。

That's over.

忘掉一场比赛吧。

Forget a race.

忘掉奥运会吧。

Forget the Olympics.

我根本不愿意尝试游上几段，那一点都不会愉快。

I would hate to try and do that for even a couple of lengths would be not at all enjoyable.

而他依然能够获胜，因为他已经为这些情况做好了充分准备。

And he still is able to win because he's literally prepared for these scenarios.

当奥运会来临之际，鲍勃·鲍曼对我说：我知道这有可能发生，但我无法相信它竟如此轻松地实现了。

When it came down to those Olympics, Bob Bowman said to me, he said, I knew it was feasible to happen, but I couldn't believe that it happened as effortlessly as it did.

每一次都完美契合，一个接一个。

It's just everything clicked every time, one after another.

他说，最后他像电影《奇迹》里那样，独自站在走廊上，那一刻，他彻底崩溃了——我一直在自信地讲述，但事情真的执行得如此完美，如此出色，从前从未有人做到过。

He says at the end, he stood like in the movie, The Miracle, he stood in the hallway and just on his own, just had this moment of sort of exquisite meltdown of like, here I have, I've been speaking with confidence, but the thing actually executed so beautifully, so well, no one had ever done it before.

你知道吗，有人形容他，如果他赢得七枚金牌，他就像是第一个登上月球的人。

You know, like somebody described him, if he wins seven gold medals, he'll be like the first man on the moon.

如果他赢得八枚金牌，他就像是第一个登上火星的人。

If he wins eight, he'll be like the first man on Mars.

而他确实赢得了八枚。

And he does the eight.

当我前往中国的CUBE时，我回想起了这一点。

When I went to theCUBE in China, I was reflecting on this.

他是如何让表现看起来如此轻松的？

How did he make the execution look so effortless?

这就是原因。

It's like that's why.

这就是为什么我去采访鲍勃，因为我想：你必须解释清楚。

That's why I went and ended up interviewing Bob about this because I was like, you gotta explain it.

到底发生了什么？

What went on?

幕後是什麼？

What's behind the scenes?

這不僅僅是看起來像執行瞬間的那一刻。

It's not just the moment that looks like the moment of execution.

所有問題是什麼？

It's what are all the problems?

我們能做哪些緩解措施？

What are all the mitigating things we can do?

我們會把這些融入到日常訓練中。

We'll build that into the routine.

他補充了最後一個想法，我覺得很有意思。

He added this final thought, which I think is interesting.

他說，如果你問菲爾普斯這個問題，他可能根本不會告訴你有什麼例行程序。

He said, if you ask Phelps about this, he might not even tell you there is a routine.

現在這已經變得再正常不過了。

It's so normal now.

而且它是有意识地精心构建的。

And it was built so deliberately.

这就是生活。

That's just life.

但所有这些都被预先设计好，以应对挑战和问题，从而使整个过程显得毫不费力、流畅自然。

And yet all of it was built in place as anticipation for challenges and problems so that then the whole thing feels effortless, fluid.

但实际上，这都是因为这些预先的规划和准备。

But really, it's because of all of this anticipation planning.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我也想到，是什么在阻碍这一切。

And it's also strikes me not what is holding this back.

它可能是现在时态，但你知道，是什么可能阻止这种情况发生？

It could be present tense, but, you know, what could prevent this?

我知道一位非常非常成功的消费者包装品投资者，也许是其中最成功的。

I know one very, very successful one of the most maybe the most successful consumer packaged goods investors.

他也是一个连续创业者，所以他投资的领域，比如你去全食超市，那里的一切都是快消品。

He's also a serial founder, so he invests in if you go to Whole Foods, everything there is CPG.

好的。

Alright.

他会问联合创始人。

He will ask cofounders.

他说，三年后，你们发生了严重的分歧，其中一人想离开。

He said three years from now, you guys have had a huge dispute and one of you wants to leave.

最可能的原因是什么？

What are the most likely reasons?

这是他的问题。

That's his question.

也就是说，最可能的原因是什么？

Like, what are the most likely reasons?

当然，有很多事情可能会引发这种状况。

And, I mean, there's a lot that can uncork, obviously.