比特币能否在两年内达到100万美元？加里·卡多恩认为可以，原因如下。

坦帕的朋友们，如果你钱多又喜欢输钱，联系我或Melker。我们要组个局。

Tampa, if you got a lot of money and you like to lose, contact me or Melker. We're gonna put a game together.

要知道，我们总会找到各种创意方式慢慢亏光比特币。信用事件、核战、债务违约。

You know, we all find creative ways to lose our bitcoin over time. Credit event, nukes, default on debt.

这张走势图太疯狂了。我的信誉值可不止3000万美元。老兄，这很重要对吧？

I mean, this is an insane chart. My credibility is worth more than $30,000,000. Dude, that's significant. Right?

记住那句老生常谈的交易投资建议——KISS原则（保持简单）。比特币在10万美元上方横盘数月后，终于在周四创下历史新高。幸运的是，我恰好安排了与好友Gary Cardone的对话直播，因为比特币突破时刻意义重大。这场对话引发强烈共鸣，我们决定将其制作成播客节目。

You know, it's the old trading or investing advice, KISS. Keep it simple, stupid. After ranging above a $100,000 for seemingly months, Bitcoin finally made a new all time high on Thursday. Luckily, I was actually scheduled for a conversation with my good friend, Gary Cardone, which we made live at the time because it was such an impactful moment as Bitcoin was breaking out. This conversation resonated with so many people that we decided to put it out as a podcast as well.

我们聊了价格上涨原因、未来走势（剧透：Gary认为两年内可能达百万美元），更是两位老友关于比特币价值的坦诚交流——令人震惊的是，只需买入持有就能轻松赚钱。这场对话你绝对不容错过。

We talked about everything from why price is going up, where it's likely to head. Spoiler. Gary thinks it could be a million dollars in two years. But, also, this was just a frank conversation between two friends discussing the importance of Bitcoin and how absolutely blown away by how easy it is to simply make money by buying and holding Bitcoin. This is a conversation you do not want to miss.

比特币今日创下2025年第七次历史新高。

Seventh all time high in 2025 today for Bitcoin.

疯狂。

Crazy.

这种情况在你之前的一年里发生过吗？

Has that happened before in your prior year?

某种程度上这取决于你如何计算，因为确实有过一段时间，它每天都在创下新高，呈抛物线上升，你知道的，每周新高，每日新高。我想这取决于你怎么看，但显然我们自五月以来就困在这个区间里了，大概是这样。所以，一个半月来一直在试探这个范围，这里有相当明显的证据表明这东西正在飙升。

It's kind of one of, it depends I think on how you count them because there's definitely been periods where every day it makes a new all time high going parabolic up, you know, so weekly all time high, daily all time high, I guess it just kind of depends on how you look at it, but clearly we're kind of stuck in this range, I think since May, something like that. So, a month and a half kind of seeking this out and pretty clear evidence here that this thing's pumping.

你认为人们现在对这些数字感到惊讶吗？

Do you think that people are surprised by these numbers right now?

我不这么认为。我是说，嗯，我觉得很多人预期会有比仅仅跌破100点五分钟更大的回调。对吧。但我认为任何关注的人都在迫不及待地尽可能多地、尽可能快地买入，因为它不可避免地会上涨，对吧？所以我认为这只是普通人和知情者之间的区别，后者看着这个知道这是个即将爆炸的压力锅。

Don't think so. Mean, well, I think there's a lot of people who expected to get a bigger retracement than just going under a 100 for five minutes. Right. But I think anybody who's paying attention has been chompy at the bit to buy as much as they can, as fast as they can before it inevitably goes up, right? So I think it just as a differentiation between your average person maybe who has an opinion and someone who's in the know and is looking at this knowing that it's a pressure cake that's been ready to explode.

早些时候我参加了一个电话会议，和一些可以说是经历了十三年的人，对吧，很长时间了。他们评论说，你看，有人买了一万美元的比特币，全仓持有。他们只是不认为这个周期会再次发生这种情况。

I was on a a call earlier, with some, shall we say people who've been around like thirteen years, right, a long time. And they made the comment. They said, look, you know, somebody bought $10,000 worth of Bitcoin. They went all in and they held. And they just don't see that happening again in this cycle.

基本上是在暗示，未来两到四年，我们将看到比特币的指数级上涨。我认为它将打破所有这些模型。在这第四个周期的前四年，你会看到最大的涨幅，这与其他人说的相反。对吧？每个人都在说，嘿，看，它会趋于平缓。

Basically, was suggesting that over the next two to four years, we're going to see an exponential move from Bitcoin. I think it's going to break all these models. And in this first four in this fourth cycle, you get the biggest run, which is against what everyone else is saying. Right? Everyone's saying, hey, look, it's going to flatten out.

我们将失去上涨的空间，因为波动性被压制了。但我的观点是，嘿，当你十三年前以10美元的价格进入这里时，这种情况不会再发生了。我是说，它确实在发生。但我看到人们第一次购买就投入了1.11亿美元。好吧。

We're going to lose the upside the upside here because the volatility is tamped down. But my point is, hey, when you came in here thirteen years ago at $10, that isn't happening anymore. I mean, it is happening. But I see people coming in with a $111,000,000 for their first purchase. Okay.

这种事以前从未发生过。

That has never happened before.

我听说了。

I hear that.

他妈的和投10美元完全不同。如果你不理解1亿和10美元的区别，我觉得你不会懂，因为我绝不会这么做。四年前你绝不可能让我把所有身家的86%都押在这上面。没门儿，老兄。

Fucking very different putting $10. I don't think if you don't understand the difference between a 100,000,000 and $10, because I would have never done this. You would never have had me in this space four years ago deploying 86% of all my worth. No chance, man.

所以很多人一直在说，马特·霍根跟我讲过，之后也反复强调——现在是买入比特币风险收益比最佳的时机。在10万价位，有了ETF、立法监管和合规托管，长期来看下行空间能有多大？但在1万刀时，它还是个新生资产，规模小，没有机构兴趣，政府还在打压，你得考虑这玩意儿可能跌到1000就趴那儿不动了，对吧？现在大势已定，在足够长的时间框架内它注定会继续上涨。我无法预测明天或今天的走势，但要知道有海量资金正在涌入，还有更多资金连门都摸不着——比如先锋集团至今都不允许比特币现货ETF。

That's why a lot of people keep saying, Matt Hogan said it to me and he's continued to say it since that this is the best risk adjusted time to buy Bitcoin because at a 100, maybe he was saying it at a 100, but at a 100,000 with ETFs and legislation and regulation and appropriate coin present, what's your downside long term, right? But at 10,000, when it's a nascent asset and it's small and there's no institutional interest and you have the government fighting you, you got to think, hey, maybe this thing just goes down to 1,000 and stays there, right? So right now it's pretty programmed to continue up over a large enough timeframe. I can't tell you what's gonna happen tomorrow, today, whatever. But I think that, you know, there's so much money coming in and there's so much money still yet to come in that can't even get access to Vanguard's never allowed doesn't even allow Bitcoin spot ETFs.

太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

你看到没？一切都在简化。加密货币的税务申报，他们正试图消除所有复杂流程，今天刚公布的消息。这是好消息啊老兄。之前人们真的被审计问题搞得压力山大，当你的会计团队都搞不定时，难免会重新考虑是否还要投资。

Did you see the everything's making it easier. The reporting, for crypto on taxes, you know, they're trying to remove all the complexity there that came out today. That's good news, man. People really stressed over the audit ability of all this, all the crypto. When your accounting team can't do it properly, it's gonna make you rethink whether or not you really want to do the investment.

现在所有条件都已成熟，乔·莱加西终于能放手大干。他有了个四年期的投资工具，这种期限结构在其他资产类别里根本找不到。就像格兰特那帮人玩房地产都是十年二十年的长线——要是跟他投资，你得签十年协议，他还有权再续十年，懂吗？

So now everything's lining up for Joe Legacy to be able to do everything he's ever been able to do. And he has an instrument he can invest in that's four years long, which is a very different duration stack than any other asset you can acquire. Like most of these people like Grant's in for ten to twenty years, man, on a real estate play. If you invest with Grant, you're gonna sign a ten year deployment, and he has the right to extend for ten years. Right?

私募股权，我在建筑业务中一直从事的领域，通常需要六到十一年时间。建立一个公司，六到十一年。你知道，拥有一套房子，你需要持有它多久？可能从你买下的那一刻起，就开始考虑出售了。这是一个四年期限的投资，下行风险非常有限——我是说，我预计到年底这东西能涨到200美元，老兄。

Private equity, the stuff I've always done in my building businesses takes you somewhere between six and eleven years. Building a company, six to eleven years. It it you know, owning a home, how long do you need to own the home? Probably the moment you bought it is probably, you know, start start looking to sell it. This is a four year duration that gives you a very limited downside with I mean, I could see this thing at $200 by the end of the year, dude.

按照我们现在看到的走势，我完全可以预见这个价格。

With what the movement we're seeing right here, I could easily see that.

比特币翻倍其实并不罕见，对吧？我是说，当然现在你谈论的是2万亿美元市值，再加上2万亿美元市值就接近四万五到五万亿了。

A two x for Bitcoin is not really that unusual, right? I mean, course now you're talking about 2,000,000,000,000 market cap, plus 2,000,000,000,000 market cap would be four and a half pushing five.

是啊，但英伟达现在市值都4万亿美元了。

Yeah, but Nvidia is at 4,000,000,000,000 today.

哦，我不是说这很疯狂。我只是说难度更大。我认为从100涨到200的翻倍，比从1涨到2的翻倍更难，对吧？因为这是不同的市场。规模大得多，价格更难推动，但现在有大量资金涌入。

Oh, I'm not saying that it's crazy. I'm just saying it's harder. I think a two x from a 100 to 200 is harder than a two x from one to two, right? Because it's just a different market. It's much larger and there's just, it's harder to move price, but there's so much money pouring in.

我们今天早上还在讨论，考虑到比特币国库公司、微策略ETF等带来的透明需求——一年半内净流入500亿美元——它居然能维持在112或110以下这么久，几乎令人惊讶。这些数字太疯狂了。

We were talking about this this morning, should almost be surprised that it maintained under 112 or under 110 for so long considering all of the transparent demand that's coming in between Bitcoin treasury companies and micro strategy ETFs, 50,000,000,000 in net inflows now in a year and a half. I mean, numbers are insane.

现在货币市场基金里躺着76万亿美元。是啊，76万亿美元，收益是多少？现在货币市场基金给你多少回报？

$76,000,000,000,000 sitting in money market funds today. Yeah. 76,000,000,000,000 making what? What does the money market fund pay you today?

2%，3%。我不知道。是啊，没什么。

2%, 3%. I don't know. Yeah, nothing.

我有个姐姐，她两个兄弟都深陷比特币。她有300现金闲置着只为应急。这简直疯狂，对吧？那么多钱放着不用，她又不像秃鹫猎手等着街上掉馅饼。老兄，我觉得我们来得太早了。

I got a sister who's got two brothers deep into Bitcoin. She got 300 in cash sitting on the sidelines just for an emergency. And it's like that is insanity, right, to have that much money sitting in cash doing nothing. It's not like she's she's a vulture hunter waiting for a deal to bow in the street. Dude, I think we're so early here.

我只是觉得人们开始被这些数字吓到了。比特币社区有点不欢迎我们进来，我隐约有这种感觉。你们既希望数字上涨，又不太想让我们参与。这就是我的看法。

I just don't I think people are starting to freak out over these numbers. They're either it's a little bit like the Bitcoin community doesn't want us coming in here a little bit. I get that sense a little bit. Like, you kinda want the number to go up, but you really don't want us here. And this is the comment I made.

我说，伙计，当比特币变得让富人无需反复研读白皮书就能轻松入场的那天，才是比特币真正起飞的日子。

I'm like, dude, the the day Bitcoin becomes easy for wealthy people to come in here, they don't have to read the white paper 30 times is the day Bitcoin really does well.

你不该...我...

You shouldn't I you

说过

said that

今早格兰特和他那些朋友，就是那种会直接砸1亿进比特币的人，对吧？坦白说，就像你说的，我们看同样的文章，但已经持有上千比特币了。这不是因为研读白皮书深信比特币将取代美元成为点对点现金，而是巨额资金在寻找安全港湾——正如你说的，能让人夜夜安眠的地方。现在你轻松就能大额买入，还不会明显影响价格。

this morning, Grant and his friends and the kind of guys who are just gonna come in and plow a 100,000,000 into Bitcoin, right? I mean, literally, transparently, I think, like you said, you read the same articles as me, but a thousand Bitcoin already. That's not based on reading the white paper and deeply believing that Bitcoin is peer to peer cash that's going to replace the dollar. It's because people with that much money are looking for a place that they can plow money into safely and as you said, sleep well at night, right? You can now, you can get the size easily without particularly budging the price.

他们正在添加所有围绕你所拥有资产的周边配套产品，比如期权、ETF等等，这让它显得更加正规。而且你知道目前没有理由会出现大幅下跌。说实话，即使对你兄弟这样的人来说，他也得考虑房地产，并承认他有一套非常有利的房地产运作模式。但就像你说的，对于那些只是买房或作为投资的人来说，难道你不更愿意买比特币吗？

They're adding all of the sort of surrounding ancillary products that you would want around an asset that you own, like options and ETFs and all of these things, which makes it that much more legitimate. And you know that there's no reason it's going to draw down massively right now. And honestly, even for a guy like your brother, he's gotta be thinking about real estate and saying, he's got a very, favorable structure for the way that he does real estate. But like you said, someone who's just buying a house or buying something as an investment, wouldn't you rather buy Bitcoin?

嗯，房产投资，我知道你刚买了一套，所以这有点敏感，但你知道这是事实。我是说，房产投资是世界上最糟糕的投资。至少多户住宅能产生法币收入，然后那些法币可以用来买比特币，对吧？他的资产配置，这就是我之前在另一个房间试图向那些人说明的观点。

Well, the house investment, like and I know you just bought one, so it's a little sensitive, but and you know this is true. I mean, the house investment is the worst investment in the world. At least grants multi dwelling stuff, generates fiat, and that fiat's gonna then buy Bitcoin. Right. You know, his allocation, this is the point I was trying to make to these guys in another room earlier.

而且越是老一辈的人，我觉得他们不理解像我们这样赚来的钱是怎么配置的。他好像十年前还是五年前因为做了某件事得到了100个比特币。我当时就说，老兄，除非你买比特币，否则你算不上比特币玩家。你得买它才行。

And and it's the older the older ones. I don't think they understand how money that was earned like we earned it is deployed. He did I think he got a 100 Bitcoin for something he did ten years ago, five years ago. And I was like, you're you're not a Bitcoiner dude until you buy Bitcoin. You gotta buy it.

对吧？果然，他开始买了。我还给他介绍了水手策略，我们讨论了整个战略。我对他的推销词是：兄弟，你想把4000套公寓门数翻倍到8000的唯一方法，就是做些与众不同的事。

Right? Like, then you start sure enough, he started buying it. And, I brought him the sailor. You know, we talked about the whole strategy. And my pitch to him was, bro, the only way you're ever gonna double, go from 4,000 apartment doors to eight is to do something unique.

这话打动了他。他开始思考：在这个年纪，我该怎么增长？就像你说的，当你有一个庞大的投资组合时，如何实现10%、20%、30%的增长？他昨晚还提到，我觉得他已经买了超过1000个比特币，具体我不清楚。

And that got him. He's like, oh, how do how do I grow? Because at this age, you start looking at it to your point, hey, how do you grow ten, twenty, 30% when you have a big portfolio? He made the comment last night, and I think he's bought over a thousand Bitcoin. I don't know.

我很确定他没说谎。但今天他在3000人面前说：我能看到未来可以通过购买比特币来替代我的房地产头寸，并且晚上睡得特别踏实。这一切他用了不到两年时间就明白了。这就是我想表达的重点。

I'm pretty sure he's not lying. But today, he's saying, I can see in front of 3,000 people, I can see where I could buy Bitcoin, replace my real estate position, and sleep extremely well at night. Now that's taken him less than two years, man. Okay. This is the point I'm trying to make.

把1万美元变成1亿，这确实很酷。你中了彩票。但这些人想的是：我该怎么配置5个亿？该怎么...

Putting $10,000 to work and turning it into a 100,000,000, That's really cool. You won the lottery ticket. These people are like, how how can I deploy 500,000,000? How can I deploy But

他们也不是为了从5亿赚到50亿才买的吧？这和那种照片不一样，我需要的是零售价的100倍。在广告牌或推特上看到它，还有我的猫的

they're also not buying it to take 500,000,000 to 5,000,000,000? This isn't the same kind of like photo, I need the 100x retail. Saw it, you know, on a billboard or on Twitter and my cat's

不想买奔驰了。

wanna not buy a Mercedes.

这是如果你投入1亿，你会觉得，老兄，如果这东西变成1.2亿我就高兴坏了，对吧？如果在一项安全、流动性高且容易操作的投资上赚了20%，所以人们并不是冲着高风险的Altcoin游戏或像那些疯狂的GameStop模因玩家那样来交易的，他们只是想找个安全的地方放钱，能跑赢像收益率和货币市场基金这样的基准，就像你说的。实际上，当我跟理财顾问这些人聊的时候，他们不愿意告诉别人，嘿，把钱投进加密货币，它会翻三倍，因为这听起来像天方夜谭。他们更愿意，即使他们相信这一点，也会对客户说，你每年能从这东西上赚10%。长期来看它轻松做到每年10%。

This is if you're plowing in, you know, a 100,000,000, you're like, dude, I would be thrilled if this thing is a 120,000,000, right? If you made 20% on an investment that was safe and liquid and easy, so it's not like people are coming in looking for upside Altcoin games or to like trade this like degenerate GameStop meme guys, they're just looking to put their money somewhere safe that's going to outperform the benchmarks like yields and money market funds, as you said. The pitch to these guys actually, I would say when I talk to financial advisors and such, they don't want to tell somebody, hey, put your money in crypto, it's going to go up 3x because that sounds like unicorn fairy dust. They want to literally, they would rather, even if they believe that, pitch the person say, you'll make 10% a year on this thing. It'll easily do 10% a year over time.

这碾压了你那只有6%收益的普通投资组合，对吧？所以当你抛出那些大数字时，听起来就像个疯子，你几乎更愿意用更低的数字去说服他们。事实上，我认识一些正在募资的人，他们基本上拿走所有上涨空间，却推销这种低风险、近乎保底的收益。比如我们会封住你的下跌空间。

It's crushing your normal portfolio, which is doing six. Right? And so like you sound like a lunatic when you actually throw out the big numbers that you'd almost rather pitch them on something lower. In fact, there's people I know who are trying to raise funds where basically they get all the upside and pitch this very low side safe sort of guaranteed yield. Like we'll cap your downside.

所以基本上你不会亏到零或怎样。你的下跌空间被限制在10%或20%。我们每年给你10%的上涨收益，但剩下的上涨归我们。

So basically you can't go to zero or whatever. Your downside's capped to 10 or 20%. We pay you 10% on the upside each year, but we get the rest of the upside.

13%、14%、15%。如果你连续15年每年赚15%，你会高兴得不得了，老兄。而且你会变得很有钱。明白吗？这比23%少多了。

Thirteen, fourteen, 15. If you did 15% a year for fifteen years, you'd be tickled freaking pink, man. And you'd be rich. Okay? This is like much less 23.

当你每隔

When you double your money every

三年半相当于18%，老兄。18%就是三年。懂吗？所以你花10万美元买比特币，涨到100万。它肯定会涨到100万。

Three and a half years is like 18%, man. 18% is three years. Okay? So you buy a $100,000 Bitcoin, it goes to a million. It will go to a million.

明白吗？然后你每年能获得12%、15%甚至20%的回报。那可是巨额财富。搞不懂为什么20岁的年轻人非要追着瑞波币不放。我无法理解，这又让我想到那些该死的策略公司。

Okay? And then you're gonna get a twelve, fifteen, 20% return every year. That is monster money. Like, don't know why a 20 year old kid thinks he needs to chase XRP. I don't get it, which then brings me to these bloody strategy companies.

我已经找到自己的方向了，而且特别喜欢有你这样在圈内混迹多年的老手。这样我就能打电话问你：嘿兄弟，BMNR三天暴涨3000%，从2.0250美元飙到120美元。我错过这波行情了。哇靠。

I have found myself and I love having guys like you that have been around a long time in this space because I can call you up and go, hey, man. BMNR just made 3000%. It went from $2.02 50 to 120 in three days. I missed that move. Wow.

这可是大行情啊兄弟。想象一下砸100万进去，三天后带着100万利润离场。不过现在这玩意儿已经跌了60%。好吧，这真是...

That's a big move, man. Imagine smashing a million dollars in the trade like that and walking away with 100 in three days. Well, that shit's down 60% right now. Okay. That's a

这就是烫手山芋对吧？我都忘了这些国库公司的未来就是这样。

that's a hot potato. Right? And I forget that's the future of these treasury companies.

所以Scott，我正想说的是——会有多少人因为追逐这些公司而血本无归...

Well, that's where I'm trying to get to Scott is how many people are gonna get their bags smashed chasing First this

首先，投资国库公司的人会像所有早期投资一样赚钱退出。这让我想起2017年的ICO狂潮。那些因FOMO情绪买入这些公司股票的小散注定要遭殃。就算只是净资产溢价被套利抹平——比如股票交易价格是净资产10倍，你买入后即便跌到4-5倍也够你破产的，而这居然还算好投资？因为股价仍高于底层资产净值。接下来就会变成击鼓传花游戏，人们在不同国库公司间寻找下一个爆款或溢价潜力最大的标的。

of all, the people who invest in the treasury companies will make their money and exit much like any early investment that you've seen before. It reminds me of ICOs from 2017 the retail that buys the FOMO on the actual stock of those companies is inevitably going to get wrecked. Even if simply the premium to NAV is arbed away, right? If you're trading at a 10X to the net asset value and you buy that stock, even if it goes down to four or 5X, you're destroyed and it's still a good investment because it's trading at a higher NAV than the underlying asset, right? So I don't really, and then it's going be a game of hot potato with people going between the treasury companies to find the next hottest one or the one that's most likely to move up to the highest premium.

我认为这是我们之前见过的一种游戏模式，但想想你刚才提到的BMNR，根据我的观察，它在大约五天内上涨了3800%。当时Tom Lee在电视上说以太坊将成为下一个比特币或新的比特币。我记不清她具体怎么说的了，但基本上就是宣布他参与了这件事。你认为以太坊未来有可能上涨3800%吗？

This is a game I think that we've seen before, but think about BMNR, you just mentioned, went up 3800% basically from what I looked in about five days. That was with Tom Lee going on TV saying Ethereum is the next Bitcoin or the new Bitcoin. I can't remember exactly what she said and basically announcing that he was participating in this. Do you think that Ethereum ever goes up 3800% ever?

真的很难相信这种情况会发生。

It's really hard to believe that that could happen.

我是说，你谈论的是极其巨大的涨幅，对吧？相当于以太坊要达到比特币的价格水平。想想看，仅仅因为一家公司宣布要购买以太坊就能引发如此巨大的涨幅，而实际上这种底层资产一直表现低迷，人们甚至对它不感兴趣。这说明我们正处于某种奇怪的FOMO（错失恐惧症）脱节状态，人们就像过去追逐山寨币或网红股票那样试图快速获利。但你必须明白，内部人士早在散户开始交易前就已经赚到钱了——他们把比特币或以太坊转入早已设立的财库公司，通过反向并购上市（因为目标公司本就是上市公司），这些股票可以立即流通。

I mean, you're talking massive, massive increase, right? So you're talking about Ethereum at like Bitcoin prices, right? So think about the fact that an announcement that a company is going to buy Ethereum could pump it that massively when the underlying asset has been languishing and people don't even want that. So that shows you that we're in some sort of weird FOMO disconnection where people are just trying to catch quick gains in these just like they did in altcoins or meme stocks in the past, but you have to understand that the insiders, their money is made before you're even trading this as retail. They send their Bitcoin in or their Ethereum into the treasury company that they've already had, they reverse merge into a public company because it's an existing public company, those shares are readily available.

对大多数人来说甚至没有真正的锁定期。由于市场炒作，这些股票开始交易时就达到资产净值的8倍、9倍、10倍甚至3倍。你持有的比特币或以太坊一夜之间增值3倍，可以立即套现取回代币（可能更多代币），或是拿回代币加现金，还能用庄家的钱继续押注。显然这些都是为创造者设计的机制。我并不是在对此做价值判断，只是陈述它们的运作方式。

For most people, there's not even a real vesting schedule And because of the hype, you start trading at eight, nine, 10, even 3X to NAV. You've 3X your Bitcoin or Ethereum stack overnight, your liquid to get out, get your coins back, maybe more coins or your coins back plus cash, plus riding the house's money. So these are engineered obviously for the people creating them. I'm not even, I'm not making a value judgment on that. It's just a statement of how they operate.

当富人优先获利时，这不过是华尔街故事的翻版，或是ICO狂潮的重演。最终局面很可能就是这样的走向。

When you have wealthy people making money first, you just have Wall Street all over again or ICOs all over again. And that's inevitably kind of what's probably going to this will probably look like.

这走势图太疯狂了。到底是谁在当冤大头呢？

I mean, is an insane chart. Like who's getting cut up here, right?

那些在炒作热潮中买入股票的人？你看，因为这种涨幅根本没有任何合理依据。

Whoever bought that stock on the hype rally? You see because there's no rational reason for that to have done that.

会有很多人盯着这个想追逐它。他们只会看到表面的利益。是啊，这会很有趣。这让我想起，这些战略储备到底伤害了谁？前几天我听你谈过这个。

You're gonna have a lot of people looking at this trying to chase it. All they're gonna see is the green. Yeah, it's gonna be funny. It does remind me, who gets hurt by all these strategic reserves? I heard you talk about this the other day.

财政部公司自身，我是说，我认为是那些购买股票的散户，对吧？听着，最初研究这些的时候，甚至在我们去拉斯维加斯之前，记得吗？我想我们是在飞往维加斯的航班上讨论这个，我当时向你分析了我对这些结构持有的保留意见，对吧？那是在我们走进维加斯被推销了大约40家这类公司之前。是的。

The Treasury companies themselves, I mean, I think it's the retail who buys the stock, right? So listen, when was first looking at these, which was before we were even in Vegas, right? I think we were talking about this on our flight to Vegas and I was kind of breaking down to you how I had reservations about the structure of these, right? That was before we walked into Vegas and got pitched like 40 of them. Yeah.

没错。我最初持保留意见的原因是认为这对底层资产不利。就像这可能成为摧毁比特币的下一个比特币泡沫。因为我的想法是，现在有这些财政部公司，数量不多，我认为它们质量很高。

Right. And so the reason I have reservations at first was because I thought it would be bad for the underlying asset. Like this could be the next Bitcoin bubble that wrecks Bitcoin. Because my thinking there was, you've got these treasury companies now, there's a few of them. I think they're high quality.

它们会表现良好。那些人已经赚了钱，他们会继续持有。但当比特币涨到150或170时，人们看到这些财政部公司赚了多少钱，全球每个对冲基金都会试图成立比特币财政部公司。他们会在比特币无可避免的高点买入，因为那时他们会因FOMO情绪入场。

They'll do well. Those people have made their money. They're going to ride it. But when Bitcoin's at 150 or 170 and people see how much money these treasury companies have made, every hedge fund on the planet is going to try to start a Bitcoin treasury company. They're gonna buy what's inevitably the top on Bitcoin because that's when they're gonna FOMO in.

那时几乎无法通过债务或融资购买更多比特币。最终他们将不得不抛售所有存入的比特币来填补缺口，对吧？所以我认为这会摧毁比特币。不是说会导致85%的暴跌或引发下一轮牛熊市，而是20%的修正可能变成40%，因为在下跌20%时，太多人因这些财政部公司处于糟糕的仓位，被迫清算比特币，从而引发连锁反应，明白吗？

There's gonna be really no way to raise the debt or the money to buy more Bitcoin. And what they're gonna end up doing is actually having to sell off all that Bitcoin that was sent in, right, to cover. And so my thought was that wrecks Bitcoin, right? And it wasn't that it causes an 85% drawdown or it's the next bull bear market. It's just that a like 20% correction becomes a 40% correction because at the 20% drop, so many people are so poorly positioned with these treasury companies and such that they're forced to liquidate their Bitcoin and it gives us sort of a cascade, right?

也许它会立刻反弹。我不认为这是末日，但越想越觉得，真正被摧毁的会是那些在公司股价被推高后从公开市场购买股票的人。因为这些公司的股价不可能永远维持在9倍、5倍甚至3倍净资产值（NAV），就连MicroStrategy现在是多少？1.7倍NAV？你难道不更愿意持有交易像银行股的MicroStrategy吗？

Maybe it bounces right back. I don't think it's doom or anything, but the more I think about it and talk to people, it's just more the people who buy the shares of the companies on the open market after they've pumped that are gonna get destroyed. If you're because these things can't keep trading at 9x NAV or 5x NAV or 3x NAV, even MicroStrategy, what's it now? 1.7x NAV or something? Wouldn't you rather own MicroStrategy which is trading like a bank stock?

对，摩根大通，我不知道现在具体数值，但我猜摩根大通或高盛的股价大概是资产浮动价值的1到2倍，对吧？银行股凭什么能这样估值？如果你有一定规模的资产，为什么股票价值是资产的两倍？因为它们的银行服务、提供的附加服务、整套让客户使用服务赚钱托管资产的金融体系。这些财政部公司可没有这些。

Right, JPMorgan, I don't know what it is now, but I'm going to guess JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs trade at 1x or 2x floating the value of their assets, right? So And how do you even justify that with a bank? If you've got, you know, a certain amount of assets, why is your stock worth twice as much as your assets? Because of their banking services, the things they provide, the ancillary services, all of the structure that allows people to utilize services, make money, custody things, you run it, the full gamut of financial services. None of these treasury companies have that.

很多公司都在承诺这一点。如果他们真的能做到，相对于资产净值的溢价就有道理了，我想大家都预期微策略公司会朝这个方向发展，对吧？我是说，迈克尔·塞勒毫不掩饰他打算提供全套金融服务，实质上成为一家比特币银行的意图。这就是为什么他需要持有并持续积累如此大量的比特币。因此，我认为他们以这样的溢价交易是完全合理的，因为市场有这种预期，而且他们是先行者，规模最大。但比如第47家国债公司，它们的价值凭什么超过其持有的比特币？

A lot of them are promising it. If they had it, the premium to NAV could make sense and I think everybody expects that's what micro strategy is going to become, right? I mean, nobody, Michael Saylor is not hiding the fact that he intends to offer a full suite of financial services and effectively become a Bitcoin bank And that's why he needs to own so much and keep accumulating so much Bitcoin. So I see that as totally justified that they're trading at that premium because you have this expectation and they're the first mover and they're the biggest. But like treasury company number 47, do they deserve to be more valuable than the Bitcoin they hold?

我不知道。

I don't know.

是啊，我搞不懂。

Yeah. I don't get that.

我觉得不是。

Don't think so.

光靠一个公告可不够，对吧？我是说，我们现在都涨到113了。我喜欢这样，因为它在赶走那些投机资金。

Not out of the not out of the just just for an announcement. Right? I mean, like it. We're hitting one thirteen right now. I like it, because it's chasing away the squirrely money.

比特币，如果所有人都涌入，价格会高得多。所以我喜欢这种诡计。我只是想保持头脑清醒，确保不被市场情绪左右。我喜欢观察市场，但不想因为害怕错过而盲目跟风，懂吗？

Bitcoin, if if everybody was plowing into this Bitcoin would be much more expensive. So I love this trickery. I'm just trying to keep my my head on swivel and make sure that I the swivel doesn't control me. I like observing the market, but I don't wanna get FOMO'd into it. Right?

这就是我想讨论的原因——当我看到BMNR的交易时，我会想：天啊，老兄，当初哪怕建个小仓位都能赚翻了。但现在我就是在追逐收益，追逐利润，追逐那种快感。

This is why I'm wanting to have the conversation because I can look at the trade on BMNR and go, god damn, dude. I could have made a shitload of money just taking a small position. But then then now I'm just chasing yield. I'm chasing profit. I'm chasing the yang.

我彻底改变了自己投身比特币的核心理由——这是一种无需我付出巨大努力和承担高风险的钱，明白吗？我不必频繁操作或保持活跃，只需要保持纪律性持续增持。

I've literally changed my entire thesis of why I'm in Bitcoin, which is, hey, this is money that does not require me to take massive amounts of effort and risk. Right? I don't have to keep moving and making activity. I need to be disciplined and keep adding.

如果你购买比特币的动机正确，就不会觉得必须买入比特币国债公司股票，对吧？我这么说并非贬义——但如果你是为了赚大钱而来，进行投机性操作，认为通过杠杆化比特币头寸（因为你确信它会涨）可以通过这些国债公司实现，那我完全理解你买入这些股票的行为。不过我必须从心理上把这些视为交易而非投资。过去一个半月我们每次对话的核心主题都是：这实在太简单了。为什么这么简单？真的可以这么轻松吗？

If you're buying Bitcoin for the right reason, you don't feel compelled to buy a treasury company, right? If you, and I'm not even saying this in a negative way, but if you're here to make a ton of money and you're speculating and you think that, you know, taking on a leveraged Bitcoin position effectively because you believe it's going to go up could be done through these treasury companies, I totally get buying these, but I just have to view these mentally as more of a trade than the investment. And the overwhelming theme of every conversation you and I've had in the past month, month and a half is this is so easy. Why is this so easy? Can it be this easy?

事实就是如此简单：你只需投入资金买入比特币，然后等待。

And it really is just that easy that you just take money and you buy Bitcoin and you wait.

这简直会成为世纪笑话——根本不需要

Like it's going to be the joke of the century, Don't need

这么折腾。是的，我并不是说你不该买这些。我也没说微策略公司不厉害。我刚告诉你

to do this. Yeah. I'm not I'm not saying you shouldn't buy these things. I'm not saying MicroStrategy is not amazing. I just told you

听着，我持有微策略股票。明确地说，我持有MSTR股票，明白吗？但我的成本价是2.5美元。

Oh, listen. I own MicroStrategy. To be clear, I own MSTR. Okay? But I own it $2.50.

我还持有一些微策略的长期期权，以及一些矿企股票。你提到那些会撑不住退场的人，我不确定是策略玩家，我认为是矿工们。

And I own some leaps of micro strategy. I own some miners. You talked about the people that are gonna puke out. I'm not sure it's the strategy players. I think it's the miners.

我觉得矿工们要吃苦头了，老兄。

I think the miners are gonna struggle, man.

不过这对他们来说是好消息，对吧？因为历史上比特币横盘或跌到90美元区间时，算力也曾达到历史高位，所以至少随着比特币上涨他们还能盈利。短期来看，我认为他们抛售的理由会更少，但若价格停滞或下跌，矿工永远有理由抛售。那些认为价格不会再跌的人...我也说不准。

Although this is good news for them, right? Because we've had historically high hash rates when Bitcoin was kind of sideways and it was down in the 90s, so at least they're going to be profitable as Bitcoin goes up. So they'll have less reason, I think, in the short term to sell, but there's always a reason for miners to sell if price languishes or drops. Like anyone who doesn't think price is gonna drop again at some point, I don't know. Yeah.

不过11万3千美元，还不错。

A 113,000 though, not bad.

对于那些完全没有配置比特币资产，现在看着11.3万美元历史高点的人，你会怎么建议？如何引导他们现在入场而非等待回调？

What do you say to somebody that has no deployment into Bitcoin at all and they're looking at a $113,000 is all time high, how could you walk them through entering today versus waiting for a retracement?

对于任何你看好的资产——尤其是比特币——最危险的念头就是'等跌下来再买'，因为最终往往是你追高接盘。市场规律就是如此。刚才确实有点惊险，但我可以继续分析...我认为从风险调整后的基础来看，这是比特币有史以来的最佳买入价，或者90多、100出头、88左右都算。我会说：听着，直接开始定投吧。既然这是你想长期持有的资产，就该不计价格持续买入，保持价格钝感。

No no more dangerous notion with any asset that you believe in, but especially Bitcoin that I'm just gonna wait to buy lower because inevitably you're the one who chases and buys the top. And that's just how markets work, that's how this works. A lot of scary there for a minute, but I can continue talking about it assuming he'll be back. I think that, as I said, as a risk adjusted basis, this is the best price we've ever had for Bitcoin or maybe, you know, in the 90s, 100s, 88, whatever, but I would say, listen, just start dollar cost averaging. You don't need to think about the price, except that this is something that you want to own, that you want to buy basically indefinitely, blindly and be price agnostic.

没必要过度纠结入场点位。你说过认为它能涨到百万美元对吧？今天早些时候你还和人激烈争论说两年内可能到百万？抛开时间框架，如果你真相信这个目标，难道会在意是10.9万还是11.3万买入吗？

There's no reason to think so hard about your entry point. Okay, you said you think it's going to a million. I think you got in a heated debate earlier today saying you think it could go to a million in two years, right? Timeframe aside, if you think it's going to a million, are you really like waiting to buy at 109 instead of 113?

没错，正是如此。

Right, that's right.

所以对我来说，问题很简单：你是想长期持有你相信会上涨的东西，还是想冒巨大风险错过机会，然后总是纠结入场时机？你的入场点应该始终存在，无论你的时间框架如何。不必投入全部资金，但即使小额买入，也要持续积累。

So to me, it's just the case is, hey, do you want exposure to this thing that you believe is going to go up long term or do you wanna take a major risk of missing the boat and then always questioning the entry point? So your entry point should just be all the time, whatever your timeframe is. It doesn't have to be all your money, but even if you're buying small, just keep on buying.

斯科特，你见过人们在这个领域犯的最大错误是什么，包括你自己？那些已经在这里三四年甚至八年的人，你觉得他们会重蹈哪些覆辙？我看到那个可怜的入狱小子，比特男孩什么的。每次看到他的脸，老兄，我就觉得...我们会看到很多本可以改变命运的人，但他们搞砸了。他们追逐虚幻而不是脚踏实地。

Scott, the biggest mistakes you've seen people make in this space, including yourself, what are the mistakes that people, they've been in here now three, four years or even eight, where do you see the the minds that people are just gonna walk into, repeat mistakes that have been made over and over? I see this poor kid that's in jail, bit boy or whatever. Every time I see his face, dude, I just wanna we're gonna see a lot of the people that were here that could have made life changing money, and they just blew it, man. They just blew it. They chased the dragon instead of, like, keeping their head down.

你对这些人有什么建议？

What advice do you have to people?

是的，我想说老生常谈的交易或投资建议：KISS原则——保持简单，傻瓜。我们刚入行时总想用复杂方式击败比特币，倒卖各种代币，寻找百倍收益。要说到我个人最严重的错误，显然是把大部分比特币和以太坊放在Voyager平台并瞬间归零，尽管我信奉'非私钥即非真币'，我以为了解他们的运作——显然我信息不全，否则早该撤资。我们都会以各种'创意'方式丢失比特币，早期尤其如此，比如有缺陷的自托管方式。

Yeah, I would say that, know, it's the old trading or investing advice, KISS, keep it simple, stupid, right? I think we all try these complicated ways when we come in to beat Bitcoin, Flipping all coins, searching for the 100x gains, trying to do all these things. If we're talking about my own personal worst mistakes, I think it's very clear that being a Voyager, you know, having the bulk of my huge percentage, I will say of my Bitcoin, Ethereum too, sitting on Voyager and losing that in one fell swoop obviously, even though I believed in not your keys, not your coins, you know, I believe that I knew them understood what they were doing. Clearly I didn't have all the information or I've gotten my money the hell out of there fast, but losing, we all find creative ways to lose our Bitcoin over time, right? Especially in the earlier days with kind of broken self custody or just more complicated ways.

所以我认为——这话常让我俩惹上麻烦——我不是说自托管不好，而是你必须深刻理解并信任资产，具备过硬技术知识才能走自托管这条路，而且必须制定周密计划。'非私钥即非真币'在早期更适用，现在交易所也有安全方案。不是建议你这么做，但多数人首先需要做好基础交易所安全措施，确保不犯错。

And so I think literally, and this is going to always get you and I in trouble because we say it, I'm not saying self custody is bad. I'm saying you have to deeply understand and believe in the asset and have very good technical knowledge to go down the path of self custody and you better damn well have a good plan if you're going to do that. I believe that not your keys, not your coins generally was much more true in the earlier days. Now I think there are safe ways to do it on exchanges. I'm not saying that you should, but like most people just need to get their basic exchange security in order at first and make sure that they don't fuck up, right?

比如为Coinbase账户设置加密邮箱，使用独立设备的双重验证，永远别用短信验证——你会被骗的。每天收到多少假冒Kraken、Gemini和Coinbase的邮件短信？我天天收到'账户异常'之类的诈骗信息。

Like put a encrypted email account on your Coinbase account, have a 2FA that's on a separate device for that and for your Coinbase account. Never have SMS because you're going to get scammed. How many emails and texts you get from fake Kraken, Gemini and Coinbase on a daily basis? I get them every single day. Your account's been compromised, whatever it is.

道理很简单：买入比特币，确保安全存储，别再妄想超越它——除非你是交易之神。

And I think it's pretty straightforward. So just buy Bitcoin, make sure that you have it well secured and stop trying to beat it. Unless you're like a God tier trader.

我是说，我听说很多人通过交易这些山寨币赚了大钱，然后又在完美时机换成比特币。我听说那些巨鲸就是这么操作的。但当我真正接触时，即便现在认识足够多的人能对行情有不错判断，我也找不到三个靠这方法赚到五千万美元的人。从没有人打电话跟我说'嘿兄弟，我正开私人飞机经过坦帕，接上你和斯科特去拉斯维加斯玩两天'。

I mean, I think that there's, I hear about all these people that have made all this money trading these Altcoins and then flipping it into Bitcoin because their timing is brilliant. I've heard the whales do it. And yet when I sit down, and, you know, I know enough people now to get a fairly decent read on what's going on, I I can't meet three people worth $50,000,000 that has done that. I have not had three people call me and go, hey man, I'm flying my jet through Tampa. Let me pick you and Scott up and let's go to Vegas hanging out for two days.

我打算因为

I'm gonna because I

我热爱交易。我痴迷图表分析，但说真的，世界上最富有的亿万富翁们可不是靠在新兴资产上画线决定入场时机发家的。图表线对交易很有用，是绝佳的风险管理工具，但真正的财富来自于买入、持有和

love trading. I love I love charts. I love all of but like, I always kind of joke, I'm like the wealthiest billionaires in the world didn't make it by deciding their entry on some nascent asset because of a line they drew on a chart. And I think lines on charts are great for trading, they're great risk management tools to be clear, but the real wealth is going to be paid by buying, holding and

等待。除非

waiting. Unless

你有某种内幕消息

you have some sort of inside information which

这笔钱就在这儿，如果能布局当然很棒。20美分的价位才是黄金位置对吧？我大概每个月都会接到电话说

This money right here, well yeah, if you can go set one of those up, awesome. That's the place to be, right? Is at the 20¢ level. I get a phone call maybe once a month or more. Hey.

要不要参与。我总是拒绝，兄弟。我的信誉可比三千万美元值钱多了。这确实很刺激。

Do one of those. I'm like, yeah. I'm not interested, man. I I just can't my credibility is worth more than $30,000,000. This is exciting, man.

我只是觉得，说真的，我们处在一个这样的阶段——这东西两年后看起来会值1万美元。

I just think that people are we are at a place where I mean, in all honesty, this is gonna look like $10,000 in two years.

是啊，我同意。

Yeah, I agree.

现在这股浪潮正席卷整个主流华尔街、所有主流领域，全球范围都是，对吧？就像水银无孔不入那样。价格已经轻松突破113了。我认为未来八个周期内不会再有400万枚币丢失，因为人们都在自我托管。实际上，我觉得在这场华尔街革命中，自我托管可能是最大的输家——当然不是要贬低它的价值。

This is now really rolling all through mainstream Wall Street, mainstream everything, global, right? Like it is like Mercury just seeking into everything. I mean, it's pushing through one thirteen. No problem at all. I don't think we're gonna have 4,000,000 coins lost in the next eight cycles because people are self custody, and they're gonna I actually think the self custody is probably the biggest loser in the Wall Street revolution and not to diminish its value.

不，但这是针对散户的。机构可不会买了比特币还自己

No, but it's for retail. Like no institution is buying Bitcoin and putting it

放在——哦，多重签...不他们

in Oh, multi no they

做不到的。就算是世界顶级的多重签名方案，他们最终也得依赖纽约梅隆银行、道富银行、Coinbase这类大型注册托管机构，毕竟这些机构有保险覆盖和所有必要的保障。

can't, Best multi sig in the world. They're gonna have to trust BNY Mellon or State Street or Coinbase or some huge registered custodian because they'll have coverage for insurance and all the obvious things.

这反而让我们比早期更安全，因为以前完全没有这些支持体系。就我个人而言，美国银行从没黑过我的钱，一次都没有。这是我的真实经历。当然你们可以说历史上确实发生过这种事。

Which makes it safer for us than it was prior because you had none of that support in the earlier days. Like, I've never had any American bank steal money from me. Never. Because it's just my reality. Y'all can say that it has happened before.

这种事从未发生在我身上。他们曾试图用各种费用榨干我，但最终得由我打电话质问，说你们不能收这笔费用，我不会付的。这对我来说是额外的负担。

It has never happened to me. I've had them try to fee me to death, but that's up to me to call them and go, hey. You can't charge me that fee. I'm not paying it. This is an additive for me.

实际上我发现我的银行——一家中型银行，并非知名大行——查看了我的钱包后态度大变。他们现在对我更好，尽管我没有任何比特币存在他们那里。他们给予我极大的尊重，这很了不起。要知道我的比特币甚至不在他们的生态圈内，但他们知道我还有其他加密资产在他们的资产负债表或投资组合里。

I'm actually seeing my bank, who's a mid tier bank, not a not a super name. They've seen my wallets, and they're like, bro, they're treating me better, and I have none of my Bitcoin sitting with them. They are treating me with great respect. Now that's a big deal. When my Bitcoin isn't even sitting in their ecosphere, they know that I have a bunch of other investments in crypto sitting on their balance sheet or in an investment portfolio.

两年前他们对我还会更苛刻些。现在他们会主动问：有什么能为您效劳的？这种转变非常有趣。他们甚至完全不碰比特币，但知道它的存在。

Two years ago, they would have been a little bit more demanding of me. Now they're like, hey, what can we do for you? It's really fascinating. And they literally don't even touch the Bitcoin. They know it's there.

老兄，当人们开始因为你持有比特币而更信任你时，这真是巨大的转变。

That's a big change, dude, when people start giving you more credibility for that you're holding Bitcoin.

是啊，想想Pulte说的——在美国注册交易所持有的比特币和加密货币可以计入房贷申请的净资产评估。这类事情本身或许不会直接影响市场，但释放的信号表明这已是合法资产类别。当所有这些信号叠加起来，发展空间就不可限量了。想象一下，突然能用比特币就像特斯拉股票、QQQ或SPY指数基金那样，作为整个证券组合的一部分去申请贷款...太不可思议了对吧？现在你可以说'看，我在Coinbase持有的比特币能证明我有还贷能力'——虽然目前只认可交易所托管而非自托管，不论这种做法是否合理。

Yeah, I mean, and how about Pulte saying that Bitcoin and crypto on a United States registered exchange will count towards your net worth for a mortgage? I mean, these are the kinds of things that maybe in and of themselves don't move the market, but they're the kind of signals that show you that this is an legitimate asset class and when combined with all the other signals that make it a legitimate asset class, sky's the limit. I mean, if you can all of a sudden use your Bitcoin right next to your Tesla stock or your QQQ or SPY, whatever, your mutual funds and such to take a loan against your entire securities portfolio and that's just a part of it, incredible, right? If you can now say, hey, look, I can afford my mortgage and twelve months of reserves here to make my payments because I'm holding Bitcoin on Coinbase, which is the case right now, right? That's what they're saying, not in self custody, that's what would count, not saying it's right or wrong.

这影响有多深远？想象你90%净资产是比特币，他们却说你不具备房贷资格——实际上你已是亿万富翁。这种荒诞情况正在改变，太疯狂了。

How huge is that, right? Imagine having 90% of your net worth in Bitcoin and them telling you you can't afford your mortgage, You're like a billionaire. Now like that happens, right? It's crazy.

你觉得未来六个月会怎样发展？到年底时，会...

Where do you see this thing going over the next six months? End of year, where are

上涨，我不确定，130多，150多都有可能，如果情况顺利的话可能会更高。我认为总要调低预期，因为你永远不知道下一个黑天鹅事件或类似情况何时会出现。但我要说的是，我们见过的每一个市场黑天鹅都只是让市场短暂下跌一天，然后继续走高。我们经历过多次战争，对吧？那并没有——

Up, I don't know, 130s, 150s could be much higher if things, stars align. I think you always have to just temper expectations because you never know when the next like a black swan or whatever will come. But I will say that every black swan we've seen for markets has just sent markets down for a day and then higher. So we've had multiple wars, right? That hasn't

什么样的黑天鹅事件会打击到比特币？

What black swan could hit us that would hurt Bitcoin?

信贷，某种信贷

A credit, some sort of credit

事件比如

event like

信贷危机、核战争、债务违约，你知道的，比如——我不是说这些会发生，但有很多——听着，肯定不是地缘政治因素，因为我们见过人们预期会不利的地缘政治事件，市场却继续上涨。除非真的发生世界大战——这不是夸张，世界大战可能导致下跌。但说实话，世界大战可能让比特币暴涨而其他资产下跌，所以我甚至不能说那会让比特币下跌。

a credit event, nukes, default on debt, you know, like, I don't know, I'm not saying those things will happen, but there's a lot of, listen, it's certainly not anything geopolitical because we've seen what people would have expected to be bad geopolitically and markets just continued up. We're just, you know, I guess, you know, world war if that actually happened, we're not being hyperbolic, a world war could send it down. But to be honest, world war might be the thing that sends Bitcoin way up while other things go down. So I can't even say that that sends Bitcoin down.

网络攻击，一场全面的全球网络攻击是唯一让我担心的，或者核战争。我从来没有一个投资理论能应对这种情况。就像，哇，我不管他们做什么。我不管他们做什么。

Cyber attack, a full on global cyber attack is the only thing worries me or nuclear war. The I've never had an investment thesis that I could do this in. Well, I'm like, wow. I don't care what they do. I don't care what they do.

他们没法釜底抽薪。他们本可以在40美元时这么做，也可以在四、五、八年前这么做——虽然可能不太容易。不过他们四年前确实这么干过。

They can't pull the rug. Now they could have done that at 40. They could have done it four, five, eight years ago. Not maybe not easily. Well, they did do it four years ago.

是啊。

Yeah.

整个Sam Bankman免费交易的事就是为了粉碎它，实际上我认为我们最终会对此感到满意。回想起来，我们会庆幸

The whole Sam Bankman free deal was to crush it, which I actually think we're gonna be happy with. In retrospect, we're gonna be happy that

Sam给了你更低的价格和暂时的喘息机会，但他肯定没有改变整体趋势。

Sam gave you lower prices and a temporary respite, but he certainly didn't change the overall trajectory.

不，完全没有。而且我

No, not at all. And I

认为发生的这一切帮助揭露了一些无谓的泡沫，让我们更清楚哪些可能是骗局，哪些更可信。我认为这些事件已经让许多缺乏实际效用或价值的山寨币失去了部分光环，人们原本可能将资金投入其中。我不是指所有，而是说他们可能投资的部分。如果要给Gary Gensler的所有攻击、政府的攻击、以及我们看到的对SPF等事件的疯狂回应找一个真正的积极面，那就是这些是特朗普当选、我们现在拥有一个支持加密货币的政府的最重要原因之一。因为一开始，听着，我确实相信特朗普和他的家人现在内心深处是认同的。

think all of that that happened helped expose some of this gratuitous like froth and so we understand what might be more of a scam and what might be more legitimate. I think that all of those things that happened have taken some shine off a lot of the altcoins people would have maybe been plowing their money into that don't have a utility or value. I'm not saying all of them, I'm saying some of them that they might have put their money into. If you wanna give a real silver lining to all the attacks by Gary Gensler, all of the attacks by the government, the insanity we saw as a response to SPF and those other things is one of the biggest reasons Trump was elected and that we now have a pro crypto government. Because at the beginning, listen, I I do believe Trump and his family like deeply believe, like at this point.

认为他们已经变成了橙色

Think they've been orange

讨厌银行啊，老兄。

hate the banks dude.

听着，他当时在推出NFT，然后他说，嘿，我的NFT，有人对NFT之类的东西发表了评论。他意识到，哇，这些人真的很喜欢我谈论加密货币。接着他看到资金涌入，于是他说，解雇加里·根斯勒。随后技术专家、企业家、亿万富翁和加密货币圈的人开始大规模捐款，这帮助扭转了选举局势。我不是说没有这些他就不会赢，我完全不知道。

Listen, the he was launching NFTs and he was like, hey, my NFT, this guy made a comment, right, about an NFT or something. And he was like, wow, these guys really like when I talk about crypto. And then he saw the money coming in and then he said, fire Gary Gensler. And then the technologists and the entrepreneurs and the billionaires and the crypto people started donating massively and it helped turn the election. I'm not saying he wouldn't have won otherwise, I have no idea.

然后这导致政府后续行动持续让资金流入，购买并支持这一资产。我认为如果没有那股巨大的负面力量将钟摆完全推向另一方向，这一切都不会发生。因为反加密阵营——伊丽莎白·沃伦、加里·根斯勒、乔·拜登对我们行业的胡言乱语激怒了太多人，使得原本不关心政治的人变得极其政治化，从而影响了选举结果。

And then that led to follow through by the administration to continue to keep that money going and to buy this asset and to support this asset. I don't think that happens all of that without the massive negative that threw the pendulum fully in the other direction because the anti crypto army, the Elizabeth Warren, Gary Gensler, Joe Biden bullshit against our industry pissed so many people off that nonpolitical people became massively political and swung an election.

太不可思议了。

Amazing.

我就是这么认为的。

That's what I think.

你知道吗，当你提到特朗普时，我越来越确信，在所有支持他的群体中，最满意他后续行动的将是比特币持有者。讽刺吧。这多讽刺啊，老兄？

You know, when you bring up Trump, I I have become pretty convinced that that of all the sectors who supported him, the people that will be most happy with his follow through will be the Bitcoiners. Ironic. How ironic is that shit, man?

因为其他所有事情都会陷入长期存在的政治泥潭。你开始谈论那些永恒的重大政治议题，比如战争对吧？我是说军工复合体这类东西——听着，你可以有自己的看法，但我们这届政府开始时用狗狗币和削减开支，结束时却推出了庞大华丽的法案说要靠增长解决问题。再次声明，我不评判哪种方式正确，但我们都知道每条路最终都会通向印钞，因为这是美国政府，而印钞不分党派。所以如果你相信只要我们不自己搞砸（比如再来个SPF事件），加密货币就会持续受欢迎一段时间。

Because all the other things gets down into the deep long standing political pitfalls that have existed forever. You start talking about the big political issues that have existed forever, wars, right? I mean, the military industrial complex, all these things like, listen, you can think what you want about it, but we started this administration with Doge and cutting and we ended with the big and word out the big beautiful bill and grow our way out of it, right? Once again, not making a judgment whether which one is correct or not, but we all know that every path leads to money printing because this is the United States government and money printing has no party, right? And so if you believe that crypto will continue to be popular as long as we don't fuck it up ourselves in some way with another SPF for a while.

但这将成为他们筹款的政治筹码，而且会广受欢迎，这根本不用多想。对他们来说这是明摆着的事。所以我真的认为我们都同意政府会做它该做的事，而比特币是个好解决方案。现在连政府也同意这一点了。

But it's going to be an issue that they can use to raise money and will be politically popular and that's just, it's a no brainer. It's a no brainer for them. So I really think we all agree the government's gonna do what it's gonna do and Bitcoin is a good solution to that. And now the government agrees with that.

嘿，你提到了鲍威尔。现在有很多新闻，很多传言说鲍威尔要辞职。你觉得这真的会发生，还是只是谣言和八卦？

Hey, you brought up Powell. There's a lot of news right now, a lot of rumor coming out saying Powell is gonna resign. Do you think that's really in the offing or are we just it's just rumor and gossip?

我认为他们只是在欺负他，试图逼迫他做出决定。但我觉得他没有理由辞职，除非他受够了被欺负、被取笑或被批评。

I think they're just bullying him, having a good time trying to force his hand. But I think there's no reason for him to resign unless he's just sick of getting bullied or sick of being made fun of or sick of being criticized.

他的意见是什么时候

When's his opinion

在特朗普任期的某个时候，鲍威尔会在自己的任期结束时离任，我们会有一个更有利的美联储主席。因为我对鲍威尔有复杂的感受。我认为他们显然搞砸了。美联储总是落后，总是搞砸，在两个方向上都过度反应，暂时的通货膨胀，以及我们之前看到的所有疯狂行为。

here? At some point in Trump's term, term Powell goes out at the end of his own term and we get a more favorable Fed chair. Because I have mixed feelings on Powell. I think they obviously blew it. The Fed is always behind, always blows it, overshoots in both directions, transitory inflation, all of the insanity that we saw before.

但在这一刻，我确实不能苛责他没有立即降息。他们降息了对吧？听着，利率反而上升了。如果初衷是让利率下降，而降息后利率却上涨了，那就必须谨慎行事。

But at this moment, I can't really criticize him for not cutting rates at this exact moment. They cut rates right? Then, listen. Interest rates went up. So if the idea was to get interest rates come down and they went up when they cut, you have to be cautious.

你们降息的唯一原因是2021年投放了天量资金，现在全他妈乱套了。懂吗？所有商业地产、四分之一的多户住宅地产，我敢保证有四分之一是这样。听着，凡是2021年购入的资产都没锁定固定利率。

The only reason you cut rates is because there was so much money deployed in 2021, and it's under fucking order. Okay? All the commercial, a quarter of the multi dwelling real estate, guarantee a quarter of it. Okay. Anything that was bought in 2021 did so without a fixed rate.

因为当时银行看着我都在说：兄弟，我们永远、永远、永远不会不给你钱。我是说永远。他们还说利率不会涨。他们甚至给我这套房子批了120%的贷款成数。当我...当我在签文件的时候...

Because the banks were looking at me going, bro, we will never, never, never not give you money. I mean, forever. They were like, interest rates are not going up. They gave me a 120% loan to value on this house too. And and when I when I I'm signing the document.

120%的比例。860万美元的房子贷款1100万美元。剩下的钱随你怎么用。对吧？我现在正坐在克利尔沃特的签约桌旁吃午餐。

A 120%. $11,000,000 on an $8,600,000 house. Do whatever you want with the rest of it. Right? I'm sitting at a signing table for lunch in Clearwater.

那里有五位银行家。其中三位都快流口水了，老兄。他们迫不及待要签这份协议，因为我看着他们心想，哇，你们这笔交易能赚10美元。对吧？

There's five bankers there. Three of them are salivating, man. They cannot wait to sign this thing because I'm I'm looking at them going, wow. You guys gonna make $10 on this trade. Right?

或者其他什么的。你能看出他们要拿奖金了。我签了协议是因为担心他们会临时反悔。我盯着他们所有人说，你们是不是已经把超级富豪客户都榨干了？

Or some whatever. You could see they're making bonuses. I signed the deal because I thought they were gonna pull it out from under me. I looked I looked at all of them. I said, have you guys run out of really, really rich people?

其中两个人承认了。这就是我的观点——那些顶级富豪们已经拥有所需的一切。说真的，他们的消费已达上限，所有投资领域的篮子都装满了。他们买了那么多劳力士，但唯独缺少一样东西——供应量有限的比特币。全球3500位亿万富翁每人身价54亿，而我认为如今认真玩比特币的亿万富翁只有三四十位。

And two of them went, yes. And that was my thesis that the super, super wealthy people, they already have everything they need. Literally, they are maxed out on consumption and they're full in every fucking bucket of investment thesis or anything they could buy if so many Rolexes, and there's one thing they don't have, man. It's got a finite supply. 3,500 billionaires are worth 5,400,000,000.0 each, And I think there's 30 or 40 billionaires seriously playing in Bitcoin today.

噢，我同意这个观点。

Oh, I agree with that.

老兄，这很能说明问题，对吧？

Dude, that's significant, right?

其实我会反过来看。我认为有数百位你从未听说过的亿万富翁，他们是通过比特币发家并保持匿名财富的。没错，我就认识几位。

I would actually flip that. I would say that there's hundreds of billionaires you've never heard of who got there because of Bitcoin and are anonymously wealthy. Yeah. I know a few.

我觉得是的，那些不在

I think Yeah, people that are not

任何福布斯榜单上的人，没人问过他们，他们也从未透露，但我知道他们拥有

on any Forbes list, who nobody's ever asked and they've never told, but I know they own

而这就是他们成为亿万富翁的方式。

And that's how they got there.

5.10美元，20,000枚比特币，却没人知道他们是所谓的“亿万富翁”，因为显然比特币不算数。而且当某人拥有10,000枚比特币作为全部净资产时，没人会到处宣扬。所以实际亿万富翁数量远超3,500人。光我们可能就认识上千个不为人知的亿万富翁。

$5.10, 20,000 Bitcoin and nobody knows they're quote unquote billionaires because apparently Bitcoin doesn't count. And nobody tells someone when they have 10,000 Bitcoin if that's their entire net worth. So it's a lot more billionaires than 3,500. We've probably got a thousand of them ourselves that nobody knows about.

你这么认为？我可不那么确定，老兄。

You think so, I'm not sure of that, man.

至少几百个，肯定有几百个。

A few 100, certainly a few 100.

对对对，但无论如何。好吧，想想看，哇，你现在投入新资金后如果持有300枚，每枚价值55亿，那就是300人。这占亿万富翁总数的10%。

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But nonetheless, man. Okay. When we start thinking about, wow, you got less than I mean, if you had 300 now putting new money and they're all worth 5 and a half billion each, it's 300. That's 10% of the pool of billionaires.

这还是在我们谈及百万富翁和超高净值人群之前。所以我...我回到你刚才提到的风险回报比、风险调整后的入场点这个话题。现在比10美元时更便宜，绝对比10美元便宜。10美元时就像买彩票，但彩票可不会在这里做投资。

That's before we get to the millionaires and the ultra high worth people. So I I I just I go back to your comment about, you know, risk reward, risk adjusted entry point. This is cheaper than $10. For sure, cheaper than $10. $10 was a lottery ticket, but the lottery tickets aren't making investments here.

这可是真金白银。

This is real money.

现在是多少？11万3400？

Where are we? A 113,400?

没错。看起来我们...你觉得呢？伙计，这周末我们要推高它。我们要推到15、16区间，试着找个顶部然后回落。

Yep. And it looks like we're What do you think? We're gonna push this thing this weekend, buddy. We're gonna push into the 15, sixteens, try to find a top and then come back down.

很难说，如果收盘能突破这个位置，就是一片蓝海行情。

It's hard to know, There's a blue sky breakout if it closes up above here.

老兄，我们可从来没到过这地方。

We never been here before, dude.

我觉得大概在120左右。

I think it's like 120.

真的吗？现在，当你看着那些数字时，你在关注什么特定的东西吗？你是根据什么得出120这个数字的？

Really? Now, when you look at those numbers, are you looking at any particular, what are you looking at to come up with a 120 that should just?

这不过是个10%的波动。比特币这种小幅上涨很正常，就像

It's only like a 10% move. That's just a little nice little Bitcoin move to like

让你

get you

稳稳站在前高之上。

a solid floor above the previous high.

是啊，涨了6%。大概在118，117左右。

Yeah, it's up 6%. Yeah, that's probably 118, 117.

没什么。一天而已。

Nothing. That's a day.

这种四舍五入的波动会让很多人坐不住的，伙计。我觉得这类数字会动摇很多人。不确定是否会让他们匆忙入场，但我猜确实会。是的。

That's It's a rounding gonna up a lot of people, buddy. These kind of numbers will shake up a lot of people, I think. I don't know if it makes them rush in. I suspect it does actually. Yeah.

我觉得我兄弟还没完全准备好。你越这么做，就越会觉得，妈的，我本应该做得更多。

I don't think my brother's fully deployed. I think the more you do this, the more you're like, hey shit, I should have done more.

听着，等涨到120的时候，所有人都会说，几周前我本可以在100的时候买进的。我在干嘛？我错过了20%的涨幅。然后我们会回调到100，让他们感觉糟透了。接着又会涨回去，因为他们不敢在100时买入，觉得既然又回到100了，接下来就会跌到80。

Listen, at one hundred twenty, everyone's gonna be like, I could have bought this shit at 100 a couple weeks ago. What am I doing? I missed 20%. And then we'll correct to a 100 so that they can feel really terrible. And then I'll go back up because they won't buy a 100 because now it's back at a 100, it's going 80.

直接买就对了。别想东想西的

You just buy it. Stop thinking Where about

你看到我们今年的低点了吗？如果回调的话，你觉得不会跌破哪个位置？

do you see our low this year? Do you see if we retrace, where would you think it would not retrace below?

你是说从现在开始的低点吗？

You mean a low like from here on out?

是的，

Yes,

先生。因为我觉得74是今年的低点对吧？四月份的时候。听着，如果情况真的变得糟糕，大户们想狠狠折腾散户的话，可能会到80多或90出头。要是跌破80会吓坏很多人

sir. Because I think 74 was the low, right? For this year that was in April. Listen, if things got really messy and the whales wanted to really mess with people, maybe the high 80s, low 90s. Eight would scare a lot of people if it broke

90. 我一直在等待

90. I've been waiting for

你在飞往拉斯维加斯的飞机上对我说过这话。我不记得了，我们当时聊着天，价格大概在100左右，而我说我喜欢88这个数字。你说，哦，我要在88的时候买入比特币。不知道是今年、明年还是两年后，但我不确定这个计划是否改变过，不过我们俩都记着这个目标价呢。

You said this to me on the plane when we were flying out to Vegas. I don't remember, we were talking, we were at like a 100 and I was like 88. I was like, I like 88. You were like, oh, I'm buying Bitcoin at 88. Don't know if it's this year or next year or two years, but I don't know if that's changed, but we were both got to have that tagged.

是啊。不，我觉得我还会看到88这个价位，但我们需要看到更大的数字。我们需要看到——正因如此我认为需要看到200多，然后会出现大幅回调，可能到250或300。我是说，这东西完全可能再次回调80%，相对于它上涨的高度。如果涨到一百万，回调幅度会非常惊人。

Yeah. No, I think I'll see an 88 again, but we need to see big numbers. We need to see the that's why I think you need to see the 200s, and then you'll have a big old retracement or two fifty or 300. I mean, this thing can most certainly retrace again 80% relative to where it goes. If it goes up, if it goes to a million, it will retrace a monster.

我们很可能会经历50%的跌幅，现在才刚回调了35%、38%左右。我是说，我们之前经历过什么？从2009年1月到74年（注：此处年份表述可能有误），难道人们不记得就是今年发生的吗？

We're gonna get we're gonna get 50% drop probably still. Just had like a 35, 38, whatever. I mean, where did we go? We went from 01/2009 to '74. Like did people not remember that was this year.

不像你说的那样，我们并非对这种情况免疫，仅仅因为现在正在创新高。所以1988年1月（注：此处年份可能有误），很好。不错的礼物，正常的牛市回调，抓住机会。太棒了。果断买入。

Not like you say it was, we're not immune to this stuff just because we're making it a new all time high right now. So 01/1988, great. Nice gift, normal bull market retrace, grab it. Great. Smash it.

你每天醒来

Do you wake

时会不会庆幸自己最终进入了这个行业，老兄？你有多幸运啊？

up grateful every day that you ended up in this industry, dude? Like how lucky are you?

我内心有一部分确实这么想，但另一部分会更为感激，如果我是那种低调的亿万富翁，不必应付这个行业带来的种种麻烦。

There's a part of me that does, but there's a part of me that would have been more grateful if I was one of those quiet billionaires and didn't have to deal with the shit that comes with being in this industry.

是啊，但那不是你。你就是你。所以我很感激，兄弟。我得告诉你，我本可以...

Yeah, but that's not who you are. You are who you are. So I'm grateful, dude. I gotta tell you, I could have done a

我非常感激，但有些日子确实让我火大。

I'm lot very grateful, but some days it pushes my buttons.

听着，每份工作都有糟心事，对吧？我不想纠结这个，但不管怎样，我们马上要突破114了。看好了，只要聊得够久，我们就能冲...

Yeah, listen, every job has its bullshit, right? I don't wanna do this regarding, but or whatever the deal is, we're gonna hit 114 here. Watch this. If we talk long enough, we'll smash

继续聊下去我们能冲到115。

the We'll do 115 if we keep talking.

斯科特，我觉得我们对市场有益。我们应该成为比特币大使，明年让董事会选我们连任十年。

I think we're good for the market, Scott. I think that's what we should become the ambassadors, the Bitcoin ambassadors. We'll have the board elect us next year for ten year.

没错，这些人一讨论，价格就上涨。声明：非财务建议。请咨询您的理财顾问。历史表现不代表未来收益。对，既往业绩不预示未来结果。

Yeah, I mean, these guys talk, our price goes up. No, not financial advice. Please contact your financial advisor. Past results are not indicative of future. Yeah, Past performance is not indicative of future results.

我之前收到过多少封底部带这个的邮件？

How many emails have I gotten with that before in the bottom?

听着，我想说业界对此心怀感激，有你在这个领域总比没有强。

Well, listen, I wanna say that I think the industry is grateful and it's better that you're in the space than you're not.

你也是，兄弟。谢谢。我很感激，嗯，

You too, man. Thank you. I appreciate Well,

我喜欢待在这里。这真是个了不起的领域，老兄。我一直说比特币行业将创造百万就业机会。听着，这是个正经行业。我们看到年轻人成为比特币战略经理，上市公司战略顾问，年薪二十万美元。

I love being here. It's an awesome space, man. I keep saying there's gonna be a million people employed in the Bitcoin industry. Okay, this is an industry. We're seeing young men get $200,000 a year jobs being Bitcoin strategy managers, strategic advisors to to public companies.

这太让我着迷了。人们能从中获得真正伟大的职业生涯，这太棒了。不仅仅是购买比特币，你可以在比特币行业就业，而不只是持有比特币。这可是大事，兄弟。

That is fascinating to me. It's so awesome that people are going to have really great careers out of this. It's not just about buying Bitcoin. You can you are employed in the Bitcoin industry, not just about your Bitcoin holdings. That's a big deal, man.

当它发展成规模产业时，就像Bitwise那些家伙一样，我是说，老兄，这些人——

When it becomes an industry size, like you have real jobs, like the guys at Bitwise. I mean, dude, these guys

火速出击啊，兄弟。

Rush a hit, man.

他们本可以在高盛工作，现在却无聊得要死。而他们却因为专注力成为了华尔街的重要人物，老兄。真他妈是华尔街的顶尖玩家，因为他们选对了赛道。这就是99%的问题所在——找到他妈的正确牌桌。

They they could be working at Goldman right now bored to fucking death. And they have become prominent players on Wall Street, man. Prominent fucking players on Wall Street because of their focus. They're they're in the right space. And that's 99% of the problem, finding the right fucking table to play at.

我想我们已经找到了正确的牌桌，这点毋庸置疑。

I think we found the right table. That's for sure.

说到牌桌，周日晚上你要和我一起玩吗？还是

Speaking of tables, are you playing, Sunday night with me? Or

我会来的。我之前不知道日期，但下次我一定参加。对，我说过的。准备每

you I'm gonna be here. I didn't know the date, but I'll do the next one. Yeah. I told it. Gonna start every

两周组织一次，伙计。咱们在坦帕每两到三周开一局。如果你钱多又喜欢输，联系我或梅尔克，我们会组局的。我们最喜欢那些不懂玩高额德州扑克的肥羊了。

two weeks, man. Let's get a game going to every two or three weeks in Tampa. If you got a lot of money and you like to lose contact me or Melker, we're gonna put a game together. We love people that don't know how to play high stakes poker.

肖恩·菲什，我很久没玩了，但以前可是高手。不过确实生疏了，得恶补下最新的理论和策略，但是

Sean Fish, I haven't played in a long time, but I used to be very good. It's been a while. I'm gonna have to update myself on the new theories and strategies, but

行啊，等我找到局就打电话

Yeah, just call when I'm Find

找到那个容易上当的人然后拿下。我的策略总是先找到那个容易上当的人，等着他们把钱送到你手上。这和交易其实没太大区别。

the donkey and take that. My strategy is always find the donkey and wait for them to give you their money. So not so different than trading.

确实没太大区别。不过至少你知道牌桌上谁在玩。听我说，不管你做什么，对我而言只有一条——当我加注时你就跟注。我加注，你跟注。

Not so different. At least you know who the players are at the table though. Listen with me, all you do, there's one thing with me. When I raise you to say I call. I raise you call.

我们即将迎来一个超棒的

And we're have an Over awesome

巅峰时刻。

the top.

好了兄弟。听着，我可以坐在这儿和你聊很久，但那样我们会比现在有钱得多。所以我想我们该让大家去过个愉快的周四下午了。感谢你所做的一切，老兄。

All right, buddy. Hey, listen. I could sit here and talk to you for a long time, but we'll be a lot richer than we are. So I think we all let everybody go have a good Thursday afternoon. Thank you for everything you do, man.

代我向你妻子问好，祝你们假期愉快。

Tell Tell your wife hello for me and you guys have a great holiday.

好的各位。谢谢大家。再见，加里。谢了，兄弟。

All right, guys. Thank you, everyone. Bye, Gary. Thanks, man.