美联储政策路径不明朗 关键数据滞后

欢迎收听《市场观点》。我是马修·霍恩巴赫，全球宏观策略主管。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy.

我是迈克尔·加平，摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家。

And I'm Michael Gapin, Morgan Stanley's chief US economist.

正如普遍预期，十月联邦公开市场委员会会议决定降息25个基点。但形势更为复杂，政策并非按预设路径推进。现在是纽约时间11月7日周五上午10点。迈克，虽然美联储十月确实降息25个基点，但这一决定并非全票通过。而且联邦公开市场委员会决定在12月1日提前结束资产负债表缩减计划，这比我们预期要早。

The October FOMC meeting delivered a quarter percent rate cut, as widely expected. But things are more complicated, and policy is not on a preset path from here. It's Friday, November 7, at 10AM in New York. So, Mike, the Fed did cut by 25 basis points in October, but it was not a unanimous decision. And the Federal Open Market Committee decided to end the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1, earlier than we expected.

事态是如何发展的？这会改变你的任何预测吗？

How did things unfold, and does this change your outlook in any way?

是的，马特，这让我感到意外。倒不是声明或决定本身，而是出现了分歧意见——既有支持降息50个基点的异议，也有反对降息的声音。

Yeah. Matt, it was a surprise to me. Not so much the statement or the decision, but there were dissents. There was a dissent in favor of a 50 basis point cut. There was a dissent in favor of no cut.

这预示着新闻发布会将揭示委员会内部的分裂——我认为他们对于后续政策缺乏共识。关于资产负债表讨论，虽然比预期来得早，但大体符合我们的观点。我不确定这是否当前宏观关键决策，但鲍威尔在九月到十月间对市场预期的语气转变确实令市场和我本人都感到意外。他实质上传达的关键点是：政策不再遵循预设路径，12月降息可能并非基准情景，更非既定事实。

And that foreshadowed the press conference where really the conversation was about, I think, a divided committee and a committee that didn't have a lot of consensus on what would come next. The balance sheet discussion, we can get into, it came a little sooner than we thought, but it was largely in line with our view. And I'm not sure it's a macro critical decision right now. But I do think it was a surprise to markets and it was certainly a surprise to me how much Powell's tone shifted between September and October in terms of what the market could expect from the Fed going forward. So what he said, in essence, the key points, you know, the policy is not on a preset path from here or cut in December is maybe not decidedly part of the baseline or certainly is not a foregone conclusion.

我认为这反映了几点：一是他们正基于风险管理视角重新校准政策——初期降息可以相对独立于数据。现在鲍威尔暗示，至少从当前起，后续降息将更依赖数据表现。但第二点，也是最重要的，是美联储内部显现的分歧。

And I think what that reflects is a couple of things. One is that they're recalibrating policy based on a risk management view. So you can cut almost independent of the data, at least in the beginning. And so now I think Powell is saying, well, at least from here, future cuts are probably more data dependent than those initial cuts. But second, and I think most importantly, is the division that appeared within the Fed.

我认为存在一派持鹰派立场，一派持鸽派立场。这反映了经济数据中存在的分歧与紧张关系。鹰派阵营关注的是强劲的经济活动数据、旺盛的AI投资，以及高收入消费者表现良好的现状。他们质疑为何要轻易为企业界放宽金融条件，并认为中性利率可能更高。

I think there's one group that's hawkish, one group that's dovish. And I think it reflects the division and the tension that we have in the economic data. So I think the hawkish crowd is looking at strong activity data, strong AI spending, an upper income consumer that seems to be doing just fine. And they're saying, why are we cutting financial conditions for the business community is pretty easy. Maybe the neutral rate of interest is higher.

我们的政策限制可能比想象中宽松。而委员会的另一方——我相信鲍威尔主席仍属此列——则关注招聘市场放缓、劳动力市场疲软的现象。这对依赖劳动收入的家庭实际收入增长意味着什么？第三季度汽车消费的前置可能人为推高了增长。因此FOMC内部的分歧恰恰反映了基础数据中的矛盾。

We're probably less restrictive than you think. And then I think the other side of the committee, which I believe still that Chair Powell is in, is looking at a market slowdown in hiring a weak labor market. What that means for growth in real income for those households that depend on labor market income to consume. There's probably some front running of autos that artificially boosted growth in the third quarter. So I think the dissents, or I should say the division within the FOMC, I think reflects the tension in the underlying data.

马特，要判断货币政策走向，本质上是要回答：劳动力市场会向经济活动数据靠拢反弹，还是经济活动数据会暂时向劳动力市场减速？

So to know which way monetary policy evolves, Matt, it's essentially trying to decide, does the labor market rebound towards the activity data, or does the activity data decelerate at least temporarily to the labor market?

迈克，你刚才大量谈及数据问题，但目前我们确实缺乏政府数据。你如何看待从现在到12月FOMC会议期间的数据可获得性路径？这如何影响美联储继续推进本轮降息的意愿？

Mike, you talked a lot about data just now, and we're not exactly getting a lot of government data at the moment. How are you thinking about the path for the data in terms of its availability between now and the December FOMC meeting? And how do you think that may affect the Fed's willingness to move forward with another rate cut in the cycle?

没错，这是理解问题的关键。我们当然假设联邦政府停摆终将结束，届时所有积压数据发布后，我们就能评估经济现状与历史轨迹。

Right. So that's key and critical to understanding. Right. We're operating under the assumption, of course, the federal government shutdown is going to end at some point. We're going to get all this back data released, and we can assess where the economy is or has been.

我认为市场应该这样思考：如果政府停摆在未来几周（比如感恩节前）结束，那么在12月FOMC会议时，市场与美联储将掌握大部分数据来评估经济。虽非全部，但至少能获得部分发布数据。若经济已出现温和放缓、劳动力市场持续降温，美联储可能降息；若数据显示就业市场反弹、下行风险减弱，则可能维持利率不变。

I think the way markets should think about this is if the government shutdown has ended in the next few weeks, say before Thanksgiving, then I think we, markets, and the Fed will have the bulk of the data in front of them and available to assess the economy at the December FOMC meeting. They may not have it all, but they should get at least some of that data released. We can assess it. If the economy has moderated and weakened a bit, the labor market has continued to cool, the Fed can cut. If it shows maybe the labor market rebounding, downside risk to employment being diminished, maybe the Fed doesn't cut.

所以这是

So that's a

世界正如我们所预期。政府停摆应在未来几周内结束。我们已面临有记录以来最长的停摆期。因此我们将掌握一些数据来为十二月做决策。也许这只是我一厢情愿的想法，马特。

world and it is our expectation. The shutdown should end in the next few weeks. We're already at the longest shutdown on record. So we will get some data in hand to make the decision for December. Perhaps that's wishful thinking, Matt.

或许我们会挺过感恩节，停摆将持续到十二月。但我怀疑如果政府十二月仍处于停摆状态，经济很难好转。因此我认为美联储可能会倾向于再采取一步措施。这对市场如何看待2026年前景至关重要——今年最后一次FOMC会议对市场定价、美联储政策路径以及2026年经济走向具有决定性影响。因为如果我们最终获得美联储降息，投资界的讨论焦点将转向下次降息时机；反之若十二月未降息，讨论将转向本轮周期可能再无降息——甚至可能在2026年迎来加息。

And maybe we go beyond Thanksgiving and the shutdown extends into December. My suspicion though is if the government is still shut down in December, I can't imagine the economy is getting better. So I think the Fed could lean in the direction of taking one more step. This is going to be very critical for how the markets think about the outlook in 2026 and price the outlook for 2026, the last FOMC meeting of the year has that type of importance for markets, pricing, the path of Fed policy, and the path of the economy into 2026. Because if we end up receiving a rate cut from the Fed, the dialogue in the investment community will be focused on when might the next cut arrive versus if we don't get that rate cut in December, the dialogue will focus on maybe we will never see another rate cut in the cycle, and what if we see a rate hike as we make our way through the 2026?

这将对美国国债市场产生重大影响，并改变投资者对政策与经济前景的预期。

So that can have a dramatic impact on The US Treasury market and how investors think about the outlook for policy and the economy.

我认为你说得对。如你所知，我们的基准预测至少延续到第一季度，甚至可能到第二季度。私营部门仍会试图将关税转嫁到价格上。与此同时，劳动力需求和招聘率将保持低位。因此我们预计劳动力市场会出现更多闲置。

So I think that's right. And as you know, our baseline outlook is at least through the first quarter, if not into the second quarter. The private sector will still be attempting to pass through tariffs into prices. And I think in the meantime, demand for labor and the hiring rate will remain low. And so we look for additional labor market slack to build.

虽然幅度不大，但失业率可能升至4.6%甚至4.7%。这支撑了我们关于美联储将在2026年降息的预期。但正如你指出且我早前提到的，数据中存在矛盾——劳动力市场加速复苏并非不可能，2026年可能出现动物精神驱动的经济热潮。数据动能、AI相关商业支出、高收入消费者的财富效应，以及《一揽子美好法案》带来的更大财政刺激，都可能推动经济超预期表现。若真如此，美联储此前作为风险管理实施的保险性降息就可能需要撤回——这种预期可能会在2026年下半年或第四季度形成，甚至延续到2027年。

Not a lot, but the unemployment rate moving to more like 4.6, maybe 4.7. And that underpins our expectation the Fed will be reducing rates in 2026. But I think as you note, and as I mentioned earlier, there is this tension in the data and it's not inconceivable that the labor market accelerates and you get kind of an animal spirits driven 2026, where a combination of momentum in the data, AI related business spending, wealth effects for upper income consumers, and maybe a larger fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act lead the economy to outperform. And to your point, if that is happening, it's not farfetched to think, well, if the Fed put in risk management insurance cuts, perhaps they need to take those out. And that could build in a way where that expectation looks, say, towards the second half or the fourth quarter, maybe of 2026, maybe it takes into 2027.

但我同意你的观点：如果由于经济表现良好且数据支持（这些信息将在2026年更明朗）导致美联储十二月无法降息，那么你的推论成立。简而言之，美联储降息幅度越大，利率路径分布的两端就越需要保持开放。降息越深，未来被迫加息的概率就越高。因此若美联储十二月被迫暂停，这个逻辑完全成立。

But I agree with you that if the Fed can't cut in December because the economy is doing well and the data show that and we learn more of that in 2026, you're right. So maybe to put it more simply, the more the Fed cuts, the more you need to open both sides of the rate path distribution. Right? The deeper they cut, the greater the probability over time they're going to have to raise those rates. And so if the Fed is forced to stop in December, yeah, you can make that argument.

确实，你提到的诸多因素正日益成为投资者讨论的焦点。我在近期讨论中这样比喻：与今年年中时的悲观情绪不同，现在投资者更倾向乐观预期。当然随着节日季临近，酒杯里盛放的或许会比清水更令人愉悦——所以请为我的酒杯满上，确实如此。

Indeed, a lot of the factors that you mentioned are factors that are coming up in investor conversations increasingly. The way I've been framing it in my discussions is that investors want to see the glass as half full today versus in the middle of this year, the glass was looking half empty. And, of course, as we head into the holiday season, the glass will be filled with something perhaps a bit tastier than water. And so Fill my glass, please. Indeed.

因此，我确实认为我们正为2026年的光明前景奠定基础。迈克，期待十二月与你再次相见，或许可以手捧一杯蛋奶酒，带着美联储会议的决定。感谢你抽空交谈。

So I do think that we could be setting up for a bright 2026 ahead. And so with that, Mike, look forward to seeing you again in December with a glass of eggnog perhaps and, a decision in hand for the meeting that the Fed holds then. Thanks for taking the time to talk.

很高兴与你交谈，马特。

Great speaking with you, Matt.

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