美国经济展望、墨西哥关税不确定性、加沙饥荒与人质问题

好的。不错

Okay. Good

早上好。意识到我们俩都刚从度假回来。是的。假期。两天后就会感觉像遥远的记忆。

morning. Realize we are both just back from Yes. Vacation. It will feel like a distant memory in two days.

确实。那现在呢？

Exactly. Now how about now?

就在此刻。再过

Right now. In a couple

几小时。没错。新一轮进口关税将于本周对来自世界各国的商品生效。

hours. Exactly. A new round of import tariffs is set to take effect this week on goods from countries around the world.

特朗普总统坚称这将为美国带来经济繁荣，但数据支持这一说法吗？

President Trump insists they'll usher in an economic boom for The US, but do the numbers back that up?

我是米歇尔·马丁。那是莱拉·法多，这里是NPR新闻的《第一时间》。墨西哥获得了九十天的关税延期，但这并没有让依赖跨境贸易的企业主们感到宽慰。他们表示不确定性令人束手无策。企业如何应对？

I am Michelle Martin. That's Leila Fado, and this is up first from NPR News. Mexico is getting a ninety day extension on those tariffs, but that's not making business owners who rely on cross border trade feel any better. They say the uncertainty is paralyzing. How are businesses adapting?

在加沙，轰炸下饥饿民众的画面正加大结束战争的压力，但让哈马斯释放剩余人质并停止以色列进攻的停火协议似乎仍遥遥无期。请继续关注。我们将为您带来开启一天所需的新闻。

And in Gaza, where images of a starving population under bombardment is increasing pressure for an end to the war, a ceasefire deal to bring the remaining hostages held by Hamas home and stop the Israeli offensive still seems far off. Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

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This message comes from Mint Mobile. If you're tired of spending hundreds on big wireless bills, bogus fees, free perks, Mint Mobile might be right for you with plans starting from $15 a month. Shop plans today at mintmobile.com/switch. Upfront payment of $45 for three month five gigabyte plan required. New customer offer for first three months only, then full price plan options available.

税费另计。详情请见Mint Mobile。

Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details.

此消息来自Carvana。何必费时猜测您的爱车价值？立即通过Carvana估值追踪器实时掌握其价值。只需回答几个简单问题，即可随时了解车辆最新估值。登录carvana.com追踪您的爱车价值。

This message comes from Carvana. Why spend time wondering what your car is worth? Instantly track its value on Carvana value tracker. Answer a few quick questions and stay up to speed on your car's value. Track your car's value at carvana.com.

此消息来自Mint Mobile。若您厌倦了支付数百美元的高额无线账单、隐形费用和虚假优惠，Mint Mobile可能适合您——月费计划低至15美元起。立即访问mintmobile.com/switch选购套餐。需预付45美元开通三个月5GB流量套餐。新客户专享首三个月优惠，之后可续费原价套餐。

This message comes from Mint Mobile. If you're tired of spending hundreds on big wireless bills, bogus fees, and free perks, Mint Mobile might be right for you with plans starting from $15 a month. Shop plans today at mintmobile.com/switch. Upfront payment of $45 for three month five gigabyte plan required. New customer offer for first three months only, then full price plan options available.

税费另计。详情请见Mint Mobile。

Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details.

新一轮更高关税将于本周生效。

A new round of higher tariffs is set to take effect this week.

特朗普政府表示，这些进口关税与其他政策将共同推动经济繁荣。国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特上周末在NBC《会见媒体》节目中如此表述：

The Trump administration says those import taxes along with other policies will help to usher in an economic boom. Here's how national economic council director Kevin Hassett put it over the weekend on NBC's Meet the Press.

放眼未来，经济前景极为广阔。形势大好——我们通过了宏伟的税改法案，人工智能提升着生产效率，还有源源不断的关税收入进账。

With the eye on the horizon, the economic outlook is huge. It's great. We've got the big beautiful bill. We've got AI increasing productivity. We've got everything that and we've got all the tariff revenue coming in.

因此我们完全有信心经济将从此处腾飞，持续走高。

So we have every confidence that the economy is headed way, way up from here.

然而近期一系列经济数据给这份乐观预测蒙上阴影。负面消息严重到特朗普总统直接解雇了政府首席统计官。

A slew of recent economic data casts doubt on that rosy forecast, though. The news was bad enough that president Trump fired one of the government's top number crunchers.

NPR记者斯科特·霍斯利将为我们解读这些事件。早上好，斯科特。

NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now to talk about all of this. Good morning, Scott.

早上好，卢。

Good morning, Lou.

好的，斯科特。总统和他身边的人都表示美国经济是全球最热门的。数据说明了什么？

Okay, Scott. Both the president and the people around him say The US economy is the hottest in the world. What do the numbers show?

毫无疑问，特朗普总统上任时美国经济表现相当不错。去年秋天，《经济学人》杂志称其为世界羡慕的对象，但此后部分光环已经褪色。上周我们获得了一批令人清醒的数据，描绘出总统任期六个月时经济并不乐观的景象：就业增长放缓，通胀加速。

Well, there's no question The US economy was doing pretty well when president Trump came into office. Last fall, The Economist magazine called it the envy of the world, but some of that shine has been tarnished since then. Last week, we got a sobering batch of data that painted a less than flattering picture of the economy six months into the president's term. Job growth is slowing down. Inflation is speeding up.

而且当前整体经济增长速度比过去两年都要慢。其中部分可能是统计波动——我们不应过度反应单月甚至单季度的数据——但这确实为总统积极推行关税和大规模驱逐等政策敲响警钟，经济学家警告这些政策可能拖累经济。

And the overall economy is growing more slowly now than it did in each of the last two years. Now some of this could be statistical noise. You don't wanna overreact to one month or even one quarter's numbers, but it certainly raises a caution flag as the president aggressively pursues policies like tariffs and mass deportations that economists have warned could be an economic drag.

特朗普显然对就业数据不满，因此解雇了负责编制数据的部门负责人。外界对此有何反应？

Now Trump was clearly unhappy about the jobs numbers, so he fired the head of the bureau that produced them. What's the reaction been to that?

经济学界跨党派的反应都很负面。他们谴责总统此举出自威权主义剧本，类似行为可能出现在中国，这也是为什么中国的官方经济数据被认为不太可信。而美国政府数据长期被视为黄金标准。当然，随着补充信息获取，数据会逐月修正，但这通常被视为优势而非缺陷。

Well, the reaction from economists across the political spectrum has been bad. They've denounced the president's move as something out of an authoritarian playbook. It's the kind of thing you might see in China, and it's why China's official economic data is not considered very trustworthy. US government data, on the other hand, has long been considered the gold standard. Now to be sure, numbers do get revised from month to month as additional information becomes available, but that's generally seen as a strength, not a weakness.

最新修正显示五月和六月的就业增长远低于初报值。特朗普或许不喜欢这点，但他未能提供任何证据支持其关于数据被操纵以抹黑他的说法。

The latest revision showed job growth in May and June was much weaker than initially reported. Trump might not like that, but he has offered zero evidence to back his claim that the numbers were manipulated to make him look bad.

特朗普还一直要求美联储降息。央行上周并未采取行动。未来疲软的就业数据会提高降息可能性吗？

Now Trump has also been demanding that the Federal Reserve lower interest rates. The central bank did not take that step last week. Will weaker job numbers make a rate cut more likely in the future?

有可能。上周投票支持降息的两名持异议美联储官员表示，部分原因是担心就业市场显现压力迹象。周五惨淡的就业报告确实可能推动更多政策制定者倾向降息。但需注意，对就业增长乏力的担忧必须与通胀上升的风险相权衡——后者反对降息。随着特朗普关税生效，通胀已开始攀升，美联储主席鲍威尔称这正是他们密切关注的动向。

They might. The two dissenting Fed governors who voted in favor of cutting rates last week said they did so partly out of concern that the job market might be showing signs of stress. Friday's dismal jobs report could certainly push more Fed policymakers in that direction. But, you know, concern about the sagging job growth has to be balanced against worries of rising inflation, which would argue against cutting interest rates. Inflation has started to creep up as Trump's tariffs take hold, and Fed chairman Jerome Powell says that's something he and his colleagues are watching closely.

合理的基本假设是通胀影响可能短暂，反映价格水平的单次调整。但也存在通胀效应更持久的可能性，这是需要评估和管理风险。

A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be short lived, reflecting a one time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed.

在九月下次美联储会议前，我们还将获得两份关于就业市场和通胀的月度快照。这些报告仍将出自上周那些政府统计人员之手——尽管承受白宫巨大政治压力，他们仍在竭力确保数据准确。

We'll get two more monthly snapshots of both the job market and inflation before the next Fed meeting in September. Those reports will come from the same government number crunchers as last week's people who are doing their best to get it right despite a lot of political heat from the White House.

这里是NPR的斯科特·霍斯利。谢谢，斯科特。

NPR's Scott Horsley. Thank you, Scott.

不客气。

You're welcome.

新的关税政策不会立即提高从墨西哥进口商品的价格，墨西哥获得了90天的宽限期。我们现在连线德克萨斯州埃尔帕索市成员电台KTEP的安吉拉·科切尔加。早上好，安吉拉。

Now the new tariffs will not immediately hike prices prices for imports from Mexico, which was given a ninety day extension. We're gonna check-in now with Angela Cocherga of member station KTEP in El Paso, Texas. Good morning, Angela.

早上好，莱拉。

Good morning, Leila.

那么这90天的暂缓期对美墨边境的企业来说是好消息吗？

So is this ninety day reprieve welcome news for businesses along the Mexico US border?

表面上看是这样，但实际上并非如此。这只是延长了我们这里数月来因巨大不确定性造成的痛苦，导致边境两侧都陷入停滞。作为企业，如果不知道要为进口或出口商品支付多少更高税额和关税，真的很难做规划。在埃尔帕索和整个南部边境地区，这实际上是一个被国际边界线分割的单一经济体——制造业、供应链、物流、卡车运输、仓储等都是双向流动的。

Well, you might think so, but not really. It merely prolongs the pain created by the incredible uncertainty we've experienced here for many, many months, and that's led to paralysis on both sides of the border. It's really hard to plan if you're a business not knowing how much you'll pay for the higher taxes, the higher tariffs for goods you're importing or exporting. And here in El Paso and all along the southern border, it's really one economy that happens to be split by an international boundary line. Manufacturing, supply chains, logistics, trucking, warehousing, that flows both ways.

所以这实际上是一个庞大的贸易共同体。

So it's really one big trade community.

好的。那我们接着谈谈

Okay. So let's talk a

关税不确定性的影响。在你所在地区具体表现如何？

bit more about that tariff uncertainty. How is that playing out where you live?

埃尔帕索地区有五处入境口岸，有些是横跨格兰德河的国际桥梁，有些是陆路边境通道——其中四个在德克萨斯州，还有一个就在新墨西哥州的州界线上。跨境制造业的供应链包括汽车零部件等商品，它们会多次往返边境。还有医疗器械、洗衣机、烘干机、冰箱等家用电器。我采访过杰里·帕切科...

Well, we have five ports of entry here in the El Paso region. Some are international bridges over the Rio Grande, others are land border crossings, and there are four on the Texas side and one just over the state line in New Mexico. Now in this cross border manufacturing, the supply chains include car parts, for example, and those cross back and forth multiple times. There are medical devices, home appliances like washers and dryers, refrigerators too. And I spoke with Jerry Pacheco.

他是新墨西哥州边境工业协会的主席，他表示企业目前处于停滞状态。

He's the president of the Border Industrial Association in New Mexico, and he says companies are stuck in neutral.

我个人在汽车行业有两笔交易，一笔是扩张业务，一笔是招聘计划，现在都被搁置了；还有一笔电子行业的交易也暂停了，因为在这种不确定条件下，经理人不可能做出战略性商业决策。

I've personally had two deals in the automotive industry, one for expansion, one for recruitment that or shelved, and another in the electronics industry because there's no way that a a manager is gonna make a strategic business decision in these uncertain conditions.

这只是一个入境口岸的情况，整个美墨边境都在发生类似事件。

And this is an example of just one port of entry. It's happening all along The US Mexico border.

好的。那么这些公司目前如何应对这种情况？

Okay. So how are these companies managing this right now?

几个月前，当墨西哥关税在三月份短暂生效约一天时（实际上只实施了一天就被撤销），他们就初步尝到了可能的后果。我们看到在那之前甚至之后，一些企业开始在美国边境一侧囤积尽可能多的物资。但仓储和其他相关成本很高，所以情况非常复杂。

Well, just a few months ago, they got a little bit of a taste of what might happen when if Mexican tariffs took effect for about a day back in March. Actually, they were instituted for one day and then rolled back. And what we saw in the lead up to that and even since then, some businesses began to stockpile what they could on The US side of the border. But there's a cost involved for warehousing and and other types of costs. So it's very complicated.

如果你想争分夺秒地在需求产生前把货物运过边境，所有东西都必须找地方存储。

If you're trying to beat the clock and wanna bring goods across the border before they're needed, everything has to be stored somewhere.

在边境征收关税需要哪些条件？

And what does it take to levy tariffs there on the border?

从计算机系统查看更新内容和更高关税标准的流程相对简单，这部分可能算容易的。困难的是人为因素——那些在入境口岸执行新关税的海关与边境保护局官员。他们必须警惕运输商可能因失误或故意逃避支付更高费用而违反关税规定。

Well, the process is fairly simple as far as the, you know, looking at the computerized system and seeing what what's been updated and the higher tariffs. So that might be considered easy. The hard part is the human element. Those are the people at the ports of entry who enforce the new tariffs, the US customs and border protection officers. And they have to keep an eye out for shippers who might be violating the tariffs either by mistake or trying to evade paying the higher costs.

边境两侧的商业领袖都希望获得更多资金来增加国际过境点的工作人员，以加快货物通关速度。例如需要更多美国海关与边境保护局官员来检查货运卡车。

And business leaders on both sides of the border want more funding to increase staff at international border crossings to move those goods more quickly across the border. For example, US customs and border protection officers, more of them to inspect cargo trucks.

好的。以上是德州埃尔帕索KTEP成员站的安吉拉·科切尔加的报道。非常感谢。

Okay. That's Angela Kocherga of member station KTEP in El Paso, Texas. Thank you so much.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们现在转向以色列和加沙的局势。美国特使史蒂夫·维特科夫近日访问以色列，会见了仍被哈马斯扣押在加沙的人质家属。

We now turn to Israel and Gaza. US special envoy Steve Witkoff visited Israel in recent days and met with families of the hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.

他告诉他们，随着国际社会要求停止加沙饥荒和以色列轰炸的压力增大，特朗普总统正努力达成协议使人质回家。但昨晚，以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡采取了强硬立场。

He told them that president Trump is working to reach a deal to bring the hostages home as international pressure grows to stop the starvation and Israeli bombardments in Gaza. But then last night, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu took a hardline tone.

我们现在连线在特拉维夫的NPR记者埃莉诺·比尔兹利获取最新消息。你好，埃莉诺。

We go to NPR's Eleanor Beardsley now who is in Tel Aviv for the latest. Hi, Eleanor.

早上好。

Good morning.

埃莉诺，我知道上周末出现了两段新的人质视频。这些视频产生了什么影响？它们展示了什么内容？

Now, Eleanor, I know over the weekend, two new hostage videos surfaced. What was the impact of those, and what did they show?

哦，乐乐，这些视频产生了巨大影响。视频显示的是在Nova音乐节被绑架的两名男子，其中一段视频里一名消瘦的人质说他害怕自己正在隧道里为自己挖坟墓。这令整个国家心碎。人们迫切希望带这些人质回家并结束这场战争。NPR周六晚照例前往特拉维夫的抗议现场，由于这些视频在现场播放，抗议人群激增。

Oh, Lele, it's there's been a huge impact from that. It shows two men who were kidnapped at the Nova Music Festival, And one of the videos showed an emaciated hostage who said he feared he was digging his own grave inside a tunnel. This has gutted the nation. People are desperate to bring these hostages home and end this war. NPR went to the usual Saturday night protests in Tel Aviv, and the clouds had swelled because of these videos where they were shown there.

我们采访了抗议者吉利·德克尔。她说需要向内塔尼亚胡施加更大压力。

And we spoke to protester Gilly Deckel. She says so much more pressure needs to be put on Netanyahu.

内塔尼亚胡很擅长承诺，他说要结束战争，但时机未到。他只听极端派盟友的话。所以我认为目前的压力远远不够。

Netanyahu is very good at promising, and he's saying, yeah. Let's end the war. But the moment is not here. He's listening up to his, extremist partners. So I think the pressure is just not enough.

她说许多以色列人对特朗普总统感到失望，因为他们原本以为他能结束这场战争，但他却一直给予内塔尼亚胡怀疑的余地。

You know, she said many Israelis are disappointed in president Trump because they thought he could end this war, but he keeps giving Netanyahu the benefit of the doubt.

那么以色列总理最新有什么动向？

So what is the latest from the Israeli prime minister?

原本人们希望这些人质在视频中绝望的处境能促使他与哈马斯达成协议解救他们。但昨晚，一位了解内情但无权公开表态的人士告诉美国国家公共电台，以色列官员中逐渐形成一种共识，认为哈马斯对交易不感兴趣，因此总理正试图通过军事手段击败对方来解救人质。随后内塔尼亚胡办公室发表声明称——我在此引用——'哈马斯这些怪物不想谈判。他们有着粗壮的手臂，正像纳粹让犹太人挨饿那样饿着这些人质。'当然，哈马斯方面表示任何饥饿都是以色列封锁援助所致，但人质家属称任何军事解救行动都将是对他们的死刑判决。

Well, there were hopes that the desperate condition of these hostages in the videos might push him to come to a deal with Hamas to get them out. But last night, a person familiar with the details and not authorized to speak publicly told NPR that among Israeli officials, quote, there's a growing understanding that Hamas is not interested in a deal, and therefore, the prime minister is pushing for the release of the hostages through military defeat. Then Netanyahu's office put out a statement saying, and I'm quoting here, Hamas monsters don't wanna deal. They have thick fleshy arms, and they are starving the hostages the way the Nazis starved the Jews. Now, of course, Hamas says any hunger is due to Israel's blockade of aid, but the hostage families say any military action to free them would be a death sentence.

我们再来谈谈加沙目前的状况。那里充斥着绝望与饥荒。现在是否有更多援助进入加沙？

Let's also talk about the conditions now in Gaza. I mean, there's so much desperation and starvation. Is more aid getting through now to Gaza?

援助在缓慢流入，但远远不够。国际谴责声浪日益高涨，以色列国内批评声音也在增加。上周五，以色列当代最著名作家大卫·格罗斯曼在接受意大利报纸采访时表示，加沙的战争和饥荒构成种族灭绝，他可是极具道德影响力的声音。再加上以色列两大顶尖人权组织也将其称为种族灭绝。

It's dribbling in. It's not enough. International condemnation is growing, but also condemnation within Israel. On Friday, Israel's best known living writer, David Grossman, said in an interview with an Italian newspaper that this war in Gaza and starvation is a genocide, and he's a huge moral voice. Add that to the top two Israeli human rights groups who've also called it a genocide.

当然这些组织被视为左翼。但主流甚至右翼媒体现在都在说加沙已无军事目标，是时候撤军了。昨晚在一封信中，由前以色列国防军指挥官等组成的'以色列安全运动'500名成员表示，所有能用武力达成的事都已完成。我采访了'打破沉默'组织负责人纳达夫·韦曼。

Of course, these groups are seen as on the left. But mainstream and even right winning media are now saying there are no more targets in Gaza. It's time to leave. And last night in a letter, 500 members of Israeli security movement, which includes former IDF commanders, said everything that could be done by force has been done. Now I spoke with Nadav Vaiman, head of a group called Breaking the Silence.

该组织由反对占领约旦河西岸的以色列前士兵组成。他表示这是中东最强大的军队在对抗那些布置路边炸弹和诡雷房屋的个体，但即便如此仍有士兵不断丧生。以下是他的原话。

These are former soldiers in Israel against the occupation of the West Bank. And he said this is the Middle East most powerful army fighting individuals who lay roadside bombs in booby trap houses, but, of course, that still kills soldiers. Here he is.

因为现在我们不是在打击哈马斯。我们只是在固守阵地，摧毁加沙地带。士兵们长期待在装甲车或坦克里静止不动，这让哈马斯更容易杀死他们。

Because now we're not fighting Hamas. We are holding our position. We are demolishing the Gaza Strip. So soldiers are sitting in their APCs or tanks in the same place. So it's easier for the Hamas to kill them.

最新民调显示80%的以色列人尽管政见不同，都希望结束这场战争。韦曼表示越来越多人认为这是内塔尼亚胡的个人战争。

A recent poll shows that 80% of Israelis, despite political differences, wanna end this war. And many people, he said, Lyman, increasingly see this as Netanyahu's war.

以上是美国国家公共电台驻特拉维夫记者埃莉诺·比尔兹利的报道。谢谢你，埃莉诺。

That's NPR's Eleanor Beardsley in Tel Aviv. Thank you, Eleanor.

谢谢，莱拉。

Thank you, Layla.

首先为您播报8月4日星期一的新闻。我是莱拉·福尔德伦。

And that's up first for Monday, August 4. I'm Layla Fauldron.

我是米歇尔·马丁。感谢您清晨与NPR相伴。想随时获取我们的新闻和播客？NPR应用程序是便捷之选。您可以收听本地电台报道、全球新闻故事，以及根据您喜好推荐的播客内容。

And I'm Michelle Martin. Thanks for waking up with NPR. There's an easy way to stay connected to our news and podcasts. It's the NPR app. Hear coverage from your local station, stories from around the world, and podcast suggestions based on what you like.

请在您的应用商店下载NPR应用程序。

Download the NPR app in your App Store.

本期《Up First》节目由拉斐尔·南姆、罗素·刘易斯、汉娜·布洛克、珍妮娅·威廉姆斯和亚历克斯·沃尔夫利编辑，由齐亚德·布奇、妮娅·杜马斯和克里斯托弗·托马斯制作。工程支持由斯泰西·阿博特提供，技术总监是卡莉·斯特兰奇。明天我们再见。

Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rafael Nam, Russell Lewis, Hannah Block, Janea Williams, and Alex Wolffley. It was produced by Ziyad Butch, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacy Abbott, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow.

本信息由Mint Mobile提供。如果您厌倦了支付数百美元的高额无线账单、虚假费用和免费附加服务，Mint Mobile可能适合您——月费低至15美元起。立即访问mintmobile.com/switch选择套餐。需预付45美元购买三个月5GB流量套餐。新客户优惠仅限前三个月，之后可选择全价套餐。

This message comes from Mint Mobile. If you're tired of spending hundreds on big wireless bills, bogus fees, free perks, Mint Mobile might be right for you with plans starting from $15 a month. Shop plans today at mintmobile.com/switch. Upfront payment of $45 for three month five gigabyte plan required. New customer offer for first three months only, then full price plan options available.

税费另计。详情请见Mint Mobile。本信息由Leesa赞助。Leesa不仅关乎睡眠，更关乎社会影响。

Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details. This message comes from Lisa. Lisa isn't just about sleep. It's about impact.

他们每年向需要帮助的人们捐赠数千张床垫，同时与Clean Hub等组织合作清除海洋有害塑料废物。访问leesa.com可享床垫25%折扣，输入促销代码NPR再减50美元。网址leesa.com，促销代码NPR。本信息由Mint Mobile提供。Mint Mobile直面无线行业弊端并予以修正。

They donate thousands of mattresses each year to those in need while also partnering with organizations like Clean Hub to help remove harmful plastic waste from motions. Visit lisa.com for 25% off mattresses, plus get an extra $50 off with promo code NPR. That's leesa.com, promo code NPR. This message comes from Mint Mobile. Mint Mobile took what's wrong with wireless and made it right.

他们提供更优惠的优质无线套餐，所有套餐均包含高速流量、无限通话短信及全国覆盖。立即登录mintmobile.com/switch亲身体验。

They offer premium wireless plans for less, and all plans include high speed data, unlimited talk and text, and nationwide coverage. See for yourself at mintmobile.com/switch.