华尔街综述：我们需要谈谈英特尔

欢迎回到《华尔街综述》的又一史无前例的一周，布莱恩·斯图尔特，我们Seeking Alpha的新闻总监。

Brian Stewart, our director of news at Seeking Alpha, welcome back to another unprecedented week at Wall Street Roundup.

很高兴来到这里。

Great to be here.

能在这里实时讨论这些前所未有的时期和新发展总是很棒。当然，我们经历了美联储会议。这个话题已经被讨论过，金·卡恩、朱莉·摩根，《华尔街早餐》、《华尔街午餐》。我们也会稍微谈谈，但你最关心的是什么？

It's always great to be here talking unprecedented times and new developments in real time. Of course, we had the Fed meeting. That's been talked about. Kim Khan, Julie Morgan, Wall Street Breakfast, Wall Street Lunch. We're also gonna talk a bit about it, but what's top of mind for you?

一些财报，还有英伟达和英特尔之间的大交易。你最关心的是什么？

Some earnings, a big deal with NVIDIA and Intel. What's top of mind for you?

是的。我认为我们得先谈谈英特尔。这周公司引发了投资者的浓厚兴趣。昨天股价上涨了23%，这是在周五录制的。在宣布与英伟达达成一项共同开发协议后，英伟达还将以50亿美元入股英特尔。英特尔此前已经从美国政府那里获得了一些资金注入。

Yeah. I think we have to talk about Intel first. Company generated a a festival of investor interests, this week. It jumped 23% yesterday, recording this on Friday. After it announced a deal with NVIDIA, a co development deal, that also involves NVIDIA taking a $5,000,000,000 stake in the company, Intel had already received some some injection of of cash from the US government.

显然，这最近引起了广泛关注，年初至今上涨了51%，在英伟达消息传出后创下了52周新高。基本上，英特尔正在被拉入AI的阵营。这家公司之前普遍被认为错过了机会。像英伟达和博通这样的公司已经领先一步，而英特尔被落在了后面，急需扭转局面。所以你会看到英伟达自己也在伸出援手，帮助英特尔找到前进的道路。

Obviously, it's generated a lot of interest lately, up 51% year to date, reached a new fifty two week high after the the NVIDIA news came out. Basically, Intel is being drawn into the AI fold. This was a company that was largely perceived as having missed the boat. Companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom had kind of stolen a march on them and NVIDIA was being left behind, desperate need for a turnaround. And so you see NVIDIA itself kind of reaching out and pulling Intel into the way forward.

我认为这反映了对产能的普遍需求，随着这些公司扩展并试图满足AI需求，它们在这一过程中需要尽可能多的帮助。仅从英特尔的情况来看，现在的问题是，它们能否执行这一转型和扭转局面的计划，以及股价是否已经基于这些消息上涨得过快。所以，你已经将英特尔未来可能的所有上涨空间都考虑进去了。你可以看看股价表现作为证据，上涨了23%。显然，这里有很多兴趣。

I think it speaks to just the the general need for capacity that as they as these companies build out and try and meet the AI demand, they're going to need as much help in in that process, as they can get. Looking at it from just an intel situation, the the question now becomes, whether or not they can execute on, the transition, the turnaround that they've they've started now and whether or not the stock has kind of gone too far too fast, based on the the news. So you're kind of already baking in whatever upside there might have been in Intel kind of moving forward from here. You can just kind of take, you know, the scoreboard as evidence, you know, up 23%. So obviously, a lot of interest there.

我认为英特尔在AI领域的定位曾一度非常糟糕，但大约一个月前获得政府投资，以及现在NVIDIA的这笔投资，已经让这艘船调转了正确的航向。至于这笔交易的具体条款是否能以最理想的方式落实，我认为还有待观察。但仅就投资者对英特尔发展方向的情绪而言，我想不出比这更彻底的180度大转弯了。

I think Intel was in such a shabby shape just in terms of its positioning in the the AI world that getting the leg up from the the government investment about a month ago and then this investment from NVIDIA has turned the ship in the right direction. Whether or not the specifics of the deal are are gonna shake out in sort of the the most optimal way, I think that's probably something that needs to be seen. But just in terms of investor sentiment about the direction Intel's heading, I I don't think it could be a bigger one eighty.

然后是联邦快递。他们公布了财报。我们上周讨论过将其作为本周观察的重要风向标。你从联邦快递的财报中看到了什么？这对整体形势可能预示着什么？

And then we have FedEx. They announced earnings. Always talk of the importance. We talked about them last week as something to look at this week as a a type of bellwether. What did you see out of FedEx and what that might portend broadly speaking?

联邦快递在公布财报后小幅上涨约3%。最初跳涨，但随着周五交易的推进，涨幅有所收窄。其业绩超出预期，这主要得益于成本节约措施。公司实施了名为'驱动计划'的成本削减方案，本质上是通过提高运营效率等方式节省开支。

So FedEx is up modestly about three percent after its earnings. It popped initially, and then its gains moderated somewhat as Friday trading, moved on. It beat expectations. This was largely helped by cost savings. It had put in place what it called its drive initiatives, which was basically a cost cutting program looking for efficiencies and things like that.

公司收入增长3%，利润增长6%，这正是成本削减见效的表现。投资者对联邦快递过去一个季度在控制支出方面展现的执行力感到非常满意。然而，公司未来面临诸多阻力：关税政策对全球贸易及航运的影响，以及高物价可能削弱消费需求（意味着货运量减少）的迹象。

It saw a 3% revenue increase and made a 6% profit increase, so that's just the cost cutting at play. So I think investors are very pleased with the execution that FedEx has shown over the past quarter in getting its expenses in line. However, the company faces a lot of headwinds moving forward. There's what the effect of tariffs is gonna be on global trade and therefore global shipping. There's signs that consumer demands might be eroded by higher prices, meaning less volume to be shipped.

如果所有东西都变得更贵，同样的美元能产生的包裹量就会减少。因此我认为投资者未来的担忧更多在于宏观经济层面——联邦快递是否正撞上一个不利的经济周期？即便公司在此期间运营良好，仍可能遭遇困境。

If everything's costing more, then dollars aren't creating as much package volume. So I think the the worry for investors forward is more of a macro one, whether or not FedEx is running right into just a a bad economic time period for it and whether or not even if the company is executing well during that time, it it might face some trouble.

说到宏观经济，你对本周美联储会议有何看法？虽然结果符合预期，但正如我们在多期播客中讨论的，点阵图和资产负债表仍是焦点。关于这个话题你还有什么补充？

Speaking of macro and economics, what would you say about the Fed meeting that we saw this week? Baked in, not a surprise, but also some focus on the dot plot and the balance sheet as we've talked about on various podcast episodes. What else would you add to that conversation?

是的。从更宏观的角度看，点阵图显示与会者普遍预期今年还会降息两次，然后在2026年初可能再次降息。市场也正是这样解读的，所以两者预期基本一致。

Yeah. Just taking a broader view. So the dot plot basically said that the the participants, as a consensus, were looking for two more cuts this year and then a cut probably in early twenty twenty six. And that's how the market has also come to interpret it. So there's there's a alignment there.

目前市场定价显示，10月降息概率高达92%，这意味着除非通胀出现灾难性变化，否则降息几乎已成定局。总体而言，这基本可以确定。而到12月会议结束时，利率下降50个基点的概率为80%，这实质上预示两次降息——10月一次，12月一次。展望更远的2026年3月会议，有20%的概率利率将比现在低整整一个百分点（这还是在刚实施降息之后）。此外，到明年3月会议结束时，利率比现在低75至100个基点的概率达到65%。

So right now, markets are pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut in October, which, you know, it's just leaving a little bit of room for if something devastating were to happen with inflation. But generally speaking, you can kinda bake that one in. And then 80% chance, 50 basis points lower by the end of the December meeting, which basically points to two cuts, one in October, one in December. If you look further out, if you look the March meeting in early twenty twenty six, there's a 20% chance that interest rates will be a full percentage point lower by that point than they are now, and this is after the the cut that just happened. And there's a a 65% chance that that rates will be 75 basis points or a 100 basis points lower from now at that at the end of that March meeting.

就像我说的，这基本上意味着10月降息、12月降息，然后明年第一或第二次会议再降息一次。看来市场对美联储的路径有相当清晰的预期。只要经济数据支持，且美联储官员的表态与此一致，我认为市场对政策走向会相对满意。

So that's basically, like I said, a cut in October, a cut in December, and then a cut sometime either the first or second meeting next year. So it feels like the market has a pretty clear idea of how they think the Fed is going to proceed. I think as long as the economic data supports that and as long as the the commentary from Fed officials supports that, I think the the the market will be relatively happy with the way policy is shaking out.

你从近期经济数据中观察到什么？我们之前讨论过，用一句话概括就是数据持续呈现'长期低迷'的状态。

And what are you seeing out of some economic data? We've been talking about how the data has been, sadder for longer, let's say, as a way to sum it up.

是的。

Yeah.

你如何看待当前关注的任何数据？

What would you say about any data that you're looking at now?

这个说法很准确。迄今为止所有通胀数据都显示，通胀比我们预期的更顽固，基本徘徊在3%左右。作为参考，美联储将2%视为健康通胀水平。

Yeah. I think that's a good way to to put it. I mean, all the inflation data so far has basically been inflation's stickier than we had hoped. It's it's kind of hovering around the 3% mark. For reference, the the Fed targets 2% as sort of healthy inflation levels.

与此同时，劳动力市场持续恶化——不仅是每月公布的数据，连后续修正值都表明过去几个月实际情况比我们认知的更糟。下周将公布住房数据，这将为我们提供本周的关键经济指标。此外，下周晚些时候还有PCE通胀数据即将发布。

So on the high side, meanwhile, there's been a deterioration of labor market, not just the the monthly numbers that come out, but the revisions that have been coming out have all suggested that the labor market has actually been worse than we we realized for the past several months. Next week, we have some housing data coming out. So that'll that'll give us our our economic indicator, sort of underlying economic indicator for for the week. So we'll see how that market is doing. And then we also have the PCE inflation data coming out late next week.

这将是我们的通胀指标。鉴于美联储刚刚采取行动，只要这个通胀数字与我们普遍预期的3%左右相差不大，我认为它不会产生巨大影响。同样地，对于房地产市场，如果数据显示疲软，只要不是比预期糟糕得多，我想市场可能已经理解经济疲软、通胀顽固的现状。但当前市场——正如屡创新高所证明的——正押注降息会及时到来以避免衰退，并在不显著加速通胀的情况下恢复增长。

So that'll be our inflation marker. Given that the Fed just acted and as long as that inflation number isn't too far off of the sort of 3% mark that we've all kind of come to expect, I don't think it'll have a huge impact. And similarly with the housing market, if it shows weakness in the housing market, as long as it's not dramatically worse than expected, I think it's probably already understood that there's a weaker economy, sticky inflation, but the market currently, as evidenced by, reaching new highs, is betting that the the rate cuts will come in time to skirt a recession, and get growth back on the way without a significant acceleration of any any inflation.

更不用说‘糟糕得多’的定义了，也许对某些人来说还不算太糟。如今在解析和归类数据时，似乎一切都有些相对性。这周你还在关注哪些其他方面？

Not to mention the definition of dramatically worse, maybe somebody else's, not too bad. These days, it seems like it's all a bit relative when we're parsing data and and categorizing it afterwards. Any what else would you point to that you're thinking about this week?

是的。有几只股票我觉得很有意思。比如，我们很久没从资金流角度讨论特斯拉了。

Yeah. There were, a couple stocks I thought would just be interesting. Like, we haven't done a Tesla check-in in a while in terms of, like, flow.

想你了。我们可想你了，特斯拉。

Missed you. We've missed you, Tesla.

没错。我们确实想念它。就新闻热度而言，特斯拉最近相当低调，这对股价反而是利好——过去一个月上涨了26%，就这么悄无声息地走高。Wedbush针对近期涨势评论称，马斯克已进入‘战时CEO’模式。

Right. We've missed you. In terms of news flow, it's kinda gone dark, which has been a positive for the stock. It's up 26% over the past month, so just quietly kind of turning higher. Wedbush said about its its recent upswing that Musk has gone into wartime CEO mode.

基本上，分析师和华尔街普遍认为马斯克此前有些偏离重心——他涉足狗狗币和各种衍生事务，或是政治相关事宜。而现在他沉下心来专注本职工作，最近还增持了价值超10亿美元的特斯拉股票。这种信心展现也成为股价上涨的催化剂。不过我们Seeking Alpha的分析师们仍存在分歧——

Basically, that was what analysts and Wall Street in general had said, like, that Musk had sort of drifted away from from his focus. He got involved with Doge and and just whatever that entails or the political aspect of things. And now he's kinda hunkered down just doing his day job basically and also recently bought more than a billion dollars of Tesla stock. So that was also a catalyst for the stock to to move higher, just the confidence that he was showing there. So our analysts on Seeking Alpha are still pretty split.

我上次查看时，有11个卖出或强烈卖出评级，8个买入或强烈买入评级。虽然略显看空，但可能存在滞后因素，尚未充分反映这位‘特斯拉王者归来’的态势。

At my last check, 11 sell or strong sell ratings and eight buy or strong buy ratings. So a slight bearish tinge to that, but there might be a delay factor in there sort of not taking into account the sort of return to the return of the king there at Tesla.

对于马斯克购买特斯拉股票有什么想说的吗？还有其他任何你愿意分享的背景信息吗？

Anything to say about Musk's buying Tesla stock? Any any other context that you would be willing to throw out there?

是的。我是说，你知道，这很难测试心理动机。我想说的是，像马斯克这样的人物，十亿美元对他来说和普通人概念不同。所以他花十亿美元做表演性举动，比随便挑个亿万富翁——甚至我们任何人——都要容易得多。

Yeah. I mean, you know, it's hard to kind of, like, test the psychology. I mean, I would say that, you know, somebody like Musk a billion dollars is is not the same sort of figure that it would be. So, like, it it's much easier for him to do a performative act for a billion dollars than it would be for pick a pick a billionaire that that yeah. For for either of us, I think.

但即便是对像蒂姆·库克这样的富豪CEO来说，如果他买十亿美元苹果股票，会比马斯克买特斯拉股票有意义得多。

But I even for, like, a rich CEO, like, I I think, you know, if Tim Cook bought a billion dollars of Apple stock, they would have a lot more meaning than Elon Musk buying a billion dollars of Tesla stock.

早说过这都是相对的。看看我们在这里比较的是什么。

Told you it's all relative. Look at look at what we're comparing here.

百分百同意。比如，哪个亿万富翁更擅长买股票？要我说，他可能想通过这个举动展示对股票的信心，暗示股价见底——尽管他买入时股价已经在回升。当然他也可能真心相信特斯拉会涨得更高。

Oh, we're 100%. Like, yeah. Like, which which billionaire is better at buying stock? You know, I if I were betting, I'd say it was probably meant to show his his confidence in the stock meant to sort of signal a bottom even though the stock had already been kind of on the upswing when he bought it. And also he could believe that that Tesla is moving higher.

毕竟他掌握的信息比我们俩都多。所以

I mean, he has more information than either of us do. So

我...我不完全认同。表面价值背后总有真相。

I I don't a discount. There's always truth at face value.

没错，完全正确。

Yeah. Exactly right.

是的。还有什么，布莱恩？你还在关注什么？我们应该和我们可爱的听众分享些什么？

Yep. What else, Brian? What else are you looking at? What else should we share with our lovely listeners?

对。就新闻流而言，卡特彼勒是一只不在雷达范围内的股票。它已经连续七个交易日上涨，创下新高，本周上涨8%，本月上涨12%，年初至今上涨20%，自4月低点以来更是惊人地上涨了77%。卡特彼勒是在最初关税担忧期间受到重创的股票之一，因此在4月左右暴跌。

Yeah. Just an off the radar stock in terms of news flow, Caterpillar. It's been up seven sessions in a row reaching a new high, up 8% for the week, up 12% for the month, up 20% year to date, and then kind of a eye popping 77% since it hit its April lows. Caterpillar was one of the stocks that got hit hard during the initial tariff concerns. And so crashed in sort of the April timeframe.

自那以后，它出人意料地逐渐走高，至少不在大多数投资者的关注范围内。我们的分析师利奥·尼尔森指出，公司从人工智能中受益，因为有很多数据中心正在建设，很多电力基础设施正在建设，只是为了创造驱动人工智能所需的物理基础设施，而卡特彼勒销售用于这类建筑和建设项目的机械设备，正从中获益。所以我认为这符合我们多次讨论的主题，即人工智能主题如何在市场中辐射。

And since then it's just been sort of churning higher unexpectedly or at least not something that's been on the radar. Think of a lot of investors and this is pointed out by our analyst Leo Nelson. The company is benefiting from AI in the sense that there's a lot of data center build out. There's a lot of power infrastructure build out just to create the, you know, physical physical infrastructure required to drive AI and Caterpillar selling the machinery for those kind of buildings taking those kind of construction projects is taking advantage of that. So I think this plays into the theme that you and I have talked about a few times of just the way the AI theme kind of radiates through the market.

首先是芯片制造商，作为矛头，最初的收入来自人们购买这些芯片，然后你会看到人工智能产品被推出。所以像甲骨文这样的公司受益于面向消费者的人工智能发展。而现在有一只股票正在利用长期建设，实际的物理建设，比如挖掘土地和建造这些数据中心和电力基础设施的建筑。所以我认为这是一个有趣的方式，来看待这些投资主题如何贯穿不同类型的股票，那些你一开始可能不会想到的股票。

You have sort of the the chip builders where the point of the spear where the first sort of revenues were coming in as people bought these chips, but then you would see the AI products being being pushed out. So you have companies like Oracle benefiting from the the consumer facing AI developments. And now you have a stock that is taking advantage of the the long term build out, the actual physical, like digging into the earth and and putting in buildings that are gonna house these data centers are gonna house the the power infrastructure that's going to power them. So I just think it's an interesting way to look at the way in which these kind of investing themes can kind of run through different types of stocks, stocks that you might not expect at first first sight.

是的。在本周的投资专家讨论中，我们谈到了MLPs、支付股息能源公司、医疗保健，基本上现在就是人工智能。有很多机会不一定是每时每刻的头条新闻。所以要注意的不仅仅是顶级科技股。布莱恩，我很高兴你继续谈谈你这周的想法，以及大家下周可以期待什么。

Yeah. On investing experts this week, we've been talking about MLPs, dividend paying energy companies, health care, which is basically, at this point, AI. A lot of opportunities that aren't necessarily the headlines that you're getting every second of every day. So stuff to look out for, not just the top tech stocks. Brian, I'm happy for you to just keep talking about what you're thinking about this week and what folks can look forward to next week.

对。我想我只是在展望未来。就像我说的，经济数据日程相当轻松，但我们确实有住房数据和PC数据即将发布。然后是财报，日程也相当轻松，但有一些有趣的。KB Homes与住房情况相关，所以这可能是一个额外的数据点。

Yeah. I think I'm just looking ahead. Like I said, economic data, it's it's pretty light schedule, but we do have the housing data and the PC coming out. And then earnings, again, a pretty light schedule, but there are some interesting ones. You've KB Homes that plays into the housing situation, so that could be just sort of like an add on data point for that.

好市多，大型零售商。我们一直在讨论零售商面临的喜忧参半局面以及关税对他们的冲击。这很大程度上取决于企业所处位置和商业计划的结构。因此，观察作为大型零售商之一的好市多如何应对将十分有趣。上周值得注意的一点是，达登餐饮集团在公布业绩后股价暴跌8%，我认为这与当前形势相关。

Costco, big retailer. We've been talking about how it's been sort of a mixed bag for retailers and how tariffs have hit them. It kinda depends on where you are and how your your business plan is structured. So it'll be interesting to get a glimpse into Costco, which is one of the larger retails, retailers, and see how it's affecting. One note from this past week that I think plays into this is Darden Restaurants dropped sharply after reporting its results, dropped 8%.

该公司旗下拥有橄榄园、长角牛排馆等品牌。其业绩未达预期——虽然营收超预期并上调销售指引，但成本问题亮起红灯。牛肉和虾类关税对其造成打击，公司表示正在测试更小份量的低价餐品，比如在橄榄园推出轻量意面套餐。我认为这既体现了部分企业将承受的关税压力，也展现了企业为应对危机必须进行的创新实践。

The company operates brands like Olive Garden, Long Long Horn Steakhouse. It missed expectations. It beat on revenue and it raised its sales guidance, but threw up some red flags based on costs. It was hurt by beef and shrimp tariffs, and it says it's now testing smaller cheaper portions so you can get sort of a light pasta meal at at Olive Garden. I think I think that's a good example of both the the pinch that some of these companies are gonna feel from tariffs and also a good example of the innovation that I think companies are gonna have to put in play to handle this.

明白吗？单纯提高价格并非良策，若消费者犹豫不决，与竞争对手展开价格战争取客流也非上策。关键在于找到提供价格亲民产品的方法来吸引顾客。达登正是践行这一策略的典型案例。

You know? You don't wanna just sort of jack up price prices. You don't want to get into a price war with competitors trying to get consumers back in the door if they're they're reluctant, but you need to find a way to provide products at an affordable price to bring companies in. So I think Darden's a good example of companies that's trying to do that.

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