BTC248：比特币的机构浪潮 —— Willy Woo、Max Kei、Efrat Fenigson和Preston Pysh在Baltic Honeybadger（比特币播客）

您正在收听TIP。

You're listening to TIP.

大家好，欢迎收听本周三发布的比特币基础知识播客。上周，我有幸参加了在拉脱维亚里加举行的比特币蜜獾大会。在一个小组讨论中，我们探讨了当前席卷比特币的机构浪潮是件好事，还是某种试图控制协议的特洛伊木马。这是一场非常有趣的对话。

Hey, everyone. Welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin fundamentals podcast. So last week, I had the pleasure of participating in the Bitcoin Honey Badger Conference over in Riga, Latvia. And on one of the panels, we were talking about whether the institutional wave that's currently sweeping Bitcoin is a good thing, or if this is some type of Trojan horse to capture the protocol. And this was a really fun conversation.

我们有Willy Woo、Max Kai、Effort Fenixson，每个人都为讨论带来了独特的见解。我想把这个小组讨论分享给播客听众，所以我联系了负责组织整个会议的Debify和HODL HODL的Max和Anna。他们很友好地允许我将内容重新发布到播客中。希望大家喜欢这场对话，非常有趣。

We had Willy Woo, we had Max Kai, we had Effort Fenixson, and everybody just brought some really unique insights to the conversation. And I wanted to share the panel with the podcast, so I reached out to Max and Anna who run Debify and HODL HODL, which are the ones responsible for, putting this whole conference together. And they were kind enough to let me resyndicate this onto the podcast. And with that, I hope you guys enjoy the conversation. It was a fun one.

庆祝十周年。您正在收听的是投资者播客网络出品的《比特币基础知识》。现在有请主持人Preston Pysch。

Celebrating ten years. You are listening to Bitcoin fundamentals by The Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pysch.

今天担任主持的是《You're The Voice》播客的明星主持人Efrat Fenixson。不知道大家是否听过她的播客？如果还没，100%应该去听。Efrat，请上台。非常感谢。

Being your moderator today is the star and the host of the You're The Voice podcast, Efrat Fenixson. I don't know if you guys have listened to her podcast. If you haven't, you 100% should. Efrat, please come up onto the stage. Thank you so much.

我曾做过嘉宾。是的，没错。Max Kai，无需介绍。他回来了。

I have been a guest. Yes. That's true. Max Kai, you need no introduction. He's back.

Max也回来了。谢谢。Preston，你也再次上台参与讨论。Willy Woo正自己走上来。Willy，谢谢你。

Max is back here. Thank you. Preston, you're back up on the stage to talk about this one as well. And Willy Woo is just making himself up here. So, Willy, thank you.

来自新西兰的Willy Odeway。非常感谢你远道而来，Willy。本次小组讨论的标题是：比特币的机构化阶段——特洛伊木马还是转折点？为了给讨论加点料，大家看过American HODL的梗图吗——谁在特洛伊谁？没有吗？

Willy Odeway from New Zealand. Thank you very much, Willy, for coming across. And the the title of this panel is Bitcoin's institutional phase, Trojan horse or tipping point? And just to help get this one spiced up a little bit, did you guys see American HODL's meme, who's Trojan horsing who? No?

那非常有趣。他背后的信息是：我们是否正在被机构采用特洛伊木马化？总之，开始小组讨论吧。非常感谢各位，请给他们热烈的掌声。

That was very interesting. And his message behind that was, are we being Trojan horsed by the institutional adoption? So anyway, off to the panel. Thank you very much, guys. Give me a big round of applause.

好的。感谢大家午餐后继续参与。我知道你们可能更想去晒太阳，但我们会同样精彩。在过去的12到18个月里，比特币明显进入了机构化阶段——ETF、国债公司、主流堆叠。但比特币最初并不是为华尔街打造的。

Okay. Thank you for being with us after lunch. I'm sure you would have preferred being in the sun, but we are going to be just as shiny. In the past twelve to eighteen months, Bitcoin has entered a clear institutional phase ETFs, treasury companies, mainstream stacking. But Bitcoin was not originally built for Wall Street.

比特币的演变此刻正在被塑造，不仅是意识形态，更是资本流动。作为一个真正珍视自主权和自由的人，我正敞开自己面对比特币在我们法币现实中的这一必然演变，并且正在深入学习。因此我渴望与这三位智囊进行讨论。最核心的问题是：我们看到的是昙花一现的趋势还是真正的转折点？让我们从定义当前阶段的特征开始说起。

Bitcoin evolution is being shaped at the moment, not just by ideology, but by capital flows. As someone who truly appreciates self sovereignty and freedom, me, I'm opening myself up to this inevitable evolution of Bitcoin in our fiat reality, and I'm learning much about it. So I'm keen to have this discussion with these three masterminds. The overarching overarching question here is, are we seeing a trend horse or a real tipping point? And let's start with what defines this phase that we're in.

你们个人如何定义比特币的机构化阶段？是什么触发了它？谁想先回答？

How would you personally define the institutional phase of Bitcoin? What triggered it? Who wants to go first?

你可以把比特币想象成小吃豆人，我们会不断吃掉这些小点点。而当遇到大奶酪时，你就会深入挖掘。我认为真正的转折点出现在去年——当贝莱德ETF推出，大祭司拉里·芬克宣布开展ETF业务后，传统世界终于可以公开讨论购买比特币了。对吧？

So you can think of Bitcoin as little Pac Man, and we'll be eating these little dots gobble gobble gobble. Now the big cheese, you dig into that. Right? So I think the tipping point, and I think it really was a tipping point, was last year when the BlackRock ETF came on board and the high priest, Larry Fink, said we're doing this ETF, and now you can talk about buying Bitcoin for the rest of the traditional world. Right?

这代表着90万亿美元的财富资产。而比特币目前市值仅1万亿美元。我们常听到关于自由、货币与国家分离的讨论。这意味着政府不能过度支出然后通过稀释效应变相掠夺最贫困人群。这种状况只有等到吃豆人壮大到足以取代美元、超越黄金成为货币标准时才会结束。

That encapsulates $900,000,000,000,000 of wealth assets. Bitcoin at this point is $1,000,000,000,000. And we always hear talk about liberty, separation of money and state. That means that the government can't overspend and then taxi run through dilution, effectively stealing from the poorest. That doesn't end until that Pac Man gets big enough to displace the US dollar, flips gold, and becomes a monetary standard.

而要实现这一点，必须要有大型资本守门人向比特币敞开大门并注入资金。所以这是必要的一步。随之而来的是风险——我们可以讨论中心化的脆弱性。如果大量比特币集中存储在一个地方，可能会被国有化等等，但这是另一个话题了。

And that's not gonna happen until you get the large gatekeepers of capital opening up to Bitcoin and pouring that money in. And so it's a necessary step. With it comes risks. We can talk about the fragility of centralization. If big pools of Bitcoin get stored in one location, that might get nationalized and so forth, but that's a different discussion.

如果我们真的要改变世界使用货币的方式，这个过程注定会发生。

This is always going to happen if we're ever going to, you know, effectively change the way the world uses or what we use as money.

没错。简而言之，比特币文化始终保持着高度怀疑精神，这是非常健康的特质，也是它至今表现优异的主要原因。如果用图像来比喻从诞生至今的发展历程，我会想象两个星系——就像那些网络迷因展示的，它们相互靠近、碰撞，然后粒子、碎片、行星四处飞散。我认为我们现在正处于这两个星系刚开始接触的时刻。

Yep. In short, I would just say that it's in Bitcoin's culture to be very skeptical at all times, which is a very healthy thing and one of the main reasons why it's done so well to date. When I think about just an image of where we were for the last you know, since its inception until right now, I would say imagine two galaxies. If you've ever seen, like, these memes of two galaxies, they're, coming towards each other and then they're hitting, and it's just particles and debris and planets and whatever just kinda flying all over the place. I would say that we are right at that point where these two galaxies are starting to touch.

传统体系长期处于封闭状态，资本从传统系统流向比特币的规模一直相当有限。而比特币正是那个反作用力。我认为所有稳定币加密代币实际上是传统体系的产物而非真正的比特币，它们是两者连接的早期触须。但现在真正开始产生影响力了——推动这一变化的是美国政策的重大转变，这种转变正在全球产生连锁反应：既然美元霸主都在行动，那一定有其道理。这正在引发全球政策转向。

You have this legacy system that has been pretty much gated off and the flow of capital from that traditional system has been somewhat limited, pretty limited as it flows into Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is really that counterforce. I would argue that all of the crypto tokens that are stablecoins are actually a manifestation of the legacy system and not actually Bitcoin. And that those were the early tentacles of the connection between the two, but now you're really starting to make impact. And I would say the thing that's causing that impact to really take place is the massive shift in policy coming out of The United States, which is then having repercussions all around the world that they're also saying, okay, well, they're doing it and the king of the dollar that's dominated the planet for the last however many decades, like there must be something here. And so that's causing the policy shift.

关于是否特洛伊木马的问题，我举个简单例子：上届政府批准ETF时特意不允许实物赎回。我认为加里·根斯勒和SEC当时的行动就非常具有特洛伊木马特征。而新政府上任后突然变得对比特币和所有相关事物都持支持态度。

With respect to, are they Trojan horsing us? I'll give you a real simple example. The last administration, when they approved the ETFs, they purposely did not allow in kind redemptions. I would argue that that act of Gary Ginsler and the SEC at that moment in time was very Trojan horse like in its action. As soon as the new administration came in, all of a sudden, now you have their pro Bitcoin, pro everything, everything.

但有趣的是，我怀疑（虽不确定）贝莱德等持有ETF的大型银行才是推动实物赎回的主力。我认为这非常健康，并非特洛伊木马。对于不了解实物赎回的听众：如果你持有价值500万美元的iBit（是这个数字吗？威利你知道阈值是500万还是更高？），就可以进行实物赎回。

But what I find interesting is I suspect, but I don't know for sure that BlackRock and some of the larger banks that have the ETFs were actually the ones pushing for the in kind redemption. And I find that to be extremely healthy and not a Trojan horse. And for people that don't know what the in kind redemption is, it's if you have $5,000,000 worth of iBit or some number like that. Is that the right number? Willie, do you know if it's is it 5 it's like a $5,000,000 threshold and higher.

如果你持有那么多iBit股份，实际上你可以直接去iBit说，这是我的股份，给我比特币，无需通过交易所。这一点很重要，而过去的管理层故意忽略了这一点，恰恰说明他们真的希望这是一个现金结算市场，这样它就可以像黄金市场一样被操纵，因为黄金市场是现金结算而非实物结算。所以这些事情令人耳目一新。这并不意味着我们已经安全无忧或者你可以放松警惕，但这正是我认为我们没有上当受骗的理由。

If you have that many shares of iBit, you can actually go to iBit and you say, here's the shares, give me the Bitcoin and no exchange. So that's that's a big and the fact that that was purposely left out of the past administration just shows you they were really wanting it to be a cash settled market so that it could be compromised just like the gold market's been compromised because it's cash settled and not physically settled. So things like that are refreshing. It doesn't mean that we're out of the gate or that you can let your guard down, but that would be my argument for why we're not getting scammed.

我想评论一下当前周期。在发达市场，他们认为这是机构牛市。显然我们在发达市场看不到太多散户。但在发展中市场，这实际上是散户牛市。所以我认为，是的，开端是贝莱德的ETF。

I would say I would comment on the current cycle. In developed markets, they think it's institutional bull market. We don't see many retail in developed markets obviously. But in developing markets, it's actually retail bull market. So I think that, yeah, the beginning was BlackRock ETF.

在那之前是Michael Saylor。所以如果我们看比2020年更长的周期，我认为Michael最早买了一些比特币。具体金额我不记得了。

And before that it was Michael Saylor. So if we look at the longer cycle than 2020, I think Michael bought first something something Bitcoin. I don't remember the amount.

2020年买了5亿美元。

It was 500,000,000 in 2020.

是的。那是个开端，但花了四年时间其他公司才理解这个目的并接受比特币国库的概念。直到四年后的现在，实际上是五年，我们几乎每天都能看到新的国库公司加入，这在现阶段有点不健康。但我的意思是，这也是游戏的一部分。

Yeah. And that kick started, but it took four years for other companies to understand the purpose and to like Bitcoin treasury thing. And it's only after four years now, we're seeing five years actually, we see that every day there's like new treasury company coming in, which is kind of unhealthy at this point. But I mean, it's part of the game.

一年前我采访Taylor时问他，有没有其他CEO来找你试图复制你的策略？他说可能偶尔有一两个。六月份时还没形成趋势。而一年后的今天，看看我们处在什么位置。这种现象的加速发展真是疯狂。

It was a year ago when I interviewed Taylor and I asked him, are any other CEOs approaching you to try and copy your playbook? And he was like, maybe one here or there. It wasn't happening in June. And in one year, look where we are at. It's crazy, the acceleration of this phenomenon.

好的。那么现在正在囤积比特币的机构，他们是在推动比特币的使命，还是在捕获它？Preston，我知道你说现在不算是在欺骗我们，但你认为这会导致什么结果？

Okay. So the institutionals that are now stacking, are they furthering Bitcoin's mission, or are they capturing it? I know you said, Preston, that it's not so much scamming us right now, but where do you think that's leading us?

关于国库策略，我认为它在过去六个月内如此爆发的原因是，Michael和MicroStrategy意识到使用优先股与使用可转换债务完全不同。最大的区别在于，如果是不可转换的，你不需要偿还面值。他前几天刚进行了新一轮发行，筹集了42亿美元，他立即将这些资金转入比特币，这有利于普通股股东，但他永远不需要像债券那样偿还42亿美元的面值。即使是可转换债券，五年后那个面值也会对普通股股东造成稀释。所以即使运行可转换债务，他仍然面临巨大的稀释因素。

Well, on the treasury thing, I think the reason that it's taken off so much just in the past six months is because I think that there was a massive realization by Michael and MicroStrategy that using preferred stock is very different than using convertible debt. What's so different about that is you don't have to pay back the face value if it's not convertible. He just did a new issuance the other day and he's raising $4,200,000,000 He immediately sweeps that into Bitcoin that benefits the common shareholder, but he never has to pay back the face value of the 4,200,000,000.0 like you do if it was a bond. And even if it's convertible, if it was a convertible bond, that face value is dilutive to the common shareholders after five years. So even if the convertible debt was running, he still gets that massive dilution factor.

所以我认为他们发现了一个非常重要的东西：当你使用优先股时，你会得到完全不同的经济效果——你仍然以固定收益领域希望的方式为他们服务，但你永远不需要偿还面值（优先股中称为账面价值）。我认为这是一个重大突破。所以当这个领域看到这一点后，现在涌现出大量试图做同样事情的比特币国库公司。他们中的大多数甚至还没有市场准入，这对他们所有人来说都是个问题。但正如Max所指出的，这里存在担忧，我同意这一点。

So I think that they cracked into something that was really big, which is when you use preferred stock, you get very different economics that you're still servicing the fixed income space in the way that they want, but you never have to pay back the face value or the preferred stock, it's called book value. And I think that was a big unlock. So when the space saw that, you now have this big influx of Bitcoin treasury companies that are trying to do the same thing. Most of them don't even have access to the markets yet, which is an issue for all of them. But to Max's point, that there's concern there, and I agree.

我也有同样的担忧，当出现Solana国库公司或以太坊国库公司时——我的意思是，市场上出现的东西完全荒谬，将会产生大量泡沫，也会有很多人因此遭受损失。话虽如此，我确实认为健康的一面在于它激励了更多机构托管人的出现。因为现在，当你看看ETF，你完全可以强烈论证它被高度垄断，Coinbase几乎是所有这些ETF的托管人。而这一切的发生是因为第一个通过SEC审批的机构说：哦，让我看看他们的文件，哦，他们用的是Coinbase。

I share that concern when you have a Solana treasury company or you have an Ethereum treasury company and you got I mean, it's totally absurd what is coming to market, and it's gonna be a lot of froth and there's gonna be a lot of dead bodies that kinda come out of it. With all that said, I do think that where it is healthy is in incentivizing more institutional custodians. Because right now, when you look at the ETFs, you could strongly make the argument that it is very captured with Coinbase being the custodian for almost all of these. And the whole reason that unfolded is the first one through with the SEC and everybody was like, Oh, well, let me look at their paper. Oh, they use Coinbase.

直接用Coinbase。用Coinbase我们就能获批。所以大家都有了Coinbase，但比特币储备公司呢——今天早上亚当还在台上支持这个，他正准备推出一款包含大量比特币的产品。如果你认为亚当会去Coinbase，我完全不知道亚当会去哪里。但如果你觉得他会去Coinbase，如果他选择Coinbase作为机构托管方，我会非常震惊。

Just use Coinbase. Use Coinbase and we'll get approved. So everybody got Coinbase, but the Bitcoin treasury companies, you had Adam back this morning on stage, he's getting ready to do one with a lot of Bitcoin in it. And if you think Adam's going to go to Coinbase, I have no idea where Adam's going. But if you think he's going to Coinbase, I would be blown away that he went to Coinbase for his institutional custody.

所以你可以这样论证：比特币储备公司实际上将有助于分散机构托管，我认为这是非常健康的。因为如果你认为这些上市公司会自我托管，那说明你不了解上市公司的运作方式、审计机制和报告机制——最终还是会采用机构托管。不管人们是否喜欢这些变化，我想用两个星系碰撞融合的可视化来帮助理解：现在环境不同了。随着行业成熟，我们处于不同的运营环境，事物必将改变，有些人可能会适应这种变化。

So what you could do is you can make the argument that the Bitcoin treasury companies are actually going to help decentralize institutional custody, which is something that I think is really healthy. Think that because if you think that these publicly traded companies are going to self custody, you don't understand how the public companies work and how their auditing mechanisms work and how their reporting mechanisms work, it will be institutional custody. Whether people like these changes, I would help you go back to the visualization of the two galaxies coming together and they're colliding. And now there's just a different environment. We're operating in a different as it grows up, things are gonna change and people might be comfortable with that.

另一些人则会盯着过去的运作方式说：应该保持原样。而我认为事物正在变革。所以

Other people are gonna be looking at the old way that things were done and saying, it needs to still be done like that. And I would argue things are changing. So

Willie，你对此怎么看？

Willie, your take on that?

我认为危险不在于Coinbase的中心化及其被黑客攻击的风险，真正的危险是国家化路径——这在黄金史上发生过，早有先例。如果美元结构走弱而中国崛起，美国很可能会向储备公司提出要约进行激励，然后将比特币存入数字版诺克斯堡，建立新的黄金标准，最终可能像1971年那样突然背弃承诺。这一切都围绕着中心化的数字比特币展开。

I don't think centralization around Coinbase and that being hacked is the danger. I think it's really the nationalization path which happened with gold and it's happened before. And if the US dollar is structurally getting weak and China's coming in, I think it's a fair point that The US might do an offer to what the treasury companies, incentivize that. It could be then put into a digital Fort Knox, create a new, you know, gold standard, you could then rug it like happened in 1971. It's all centralized around this digital Bitcoin.

历史再次重演，又回到法币体系。届时我们会陷入这种境地：尝试过比特币但失败了，这使得第二次尝试更加困难。我认为这就是面对强大国家机器时的中心化风险。

The whole history repeats again and back to fiat again. And then it's now we're in this position where we tried this Bitcoin thing, but that didn't work, you know, so it makes the second attempt harder. I think that is the centralization risk when it comes to very big and powerful nation state.

我们稍作休息，听听今日赞助商的信息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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好了，回到节目中来。

Alright. Back to the show.

那么你认为美国更有可能收购一家持有大量比特币和储备金的现有公司，而不是自己持有储备金吗？

So do you think it's more probable that The US may acquire an existing company with a lot of Bitcoin and treasury rather than holding their own treasury?

是的。我认为，如果你想要获得比如400万比特币中的4%，你会在公开市场上购买，把价格推到天价，然后迈克尔·塞勒可能会成为世界上最富有的人，也因此成为最有权力的人，因为这是持有的普通股。或者你只是做一个股票要约，实际上以一种非常自由市场的方式国有化。到那时你已经拥有了这一大袋x百万的比特币，而且你没有推高价格。

Yeah. I think that, if you were like, say you wanted to get say four percent of the 4,000,000 of the Bitcoins, are you gonna buy on the open market and drive the price to infinity and, you know, Michael Saylor becomes probably the richest person alive and therefore well, let's say the most powerful person alive because it's common stock held. Or you're just gonna like do a share offer and effectively nationalize in a very free market fee away. You've got this big bag of x million by then Bitcoin. You haven't run up the price.

然后所有刚刚卖出MicroStrategy股票的人，比如说，现在不得不买回他们的比特币，然后价格就上涨了。我认为那会是更聪明的方式。但只是思考一下，你如何获得一大袋比特币，然后通过交易它来创造美元，或者以它为背书，然后如何将其套现成法币？我认为这是一条以前走过的路。

And then everyone who's just sold their MicroStrategy stock, let's say, now has to buy back their Bitcoins and then it runs up. I think that would be the smarter way to do it. But just thinking about the dynamics of how would you get a big bag of Bitcoin and then create dollars trading off it or, you know, backed by it, and then how do you rug that into fiat? I think that's a path that's been done before.

如果你想尝试预测未来，你从激励开始，并尝试深入理解这些激励将如何相互作用。所以当我审视当今世界上每一个发达国家时，它们都有一个巨大的瘾，那就是花费远远超过它们实际收入或所增加价值的钱。而且这种趋势只会加速。承诺一大堆钱只会变得越来越受欢迎。嘿。

If you wanna try to predict the future, you start with the incentives, and you try to deeply understand how the incentives are gonna interact. So when I look at every developed nation state in the world right now, they've got a massive addiction, and that addiction is to spend way more than they actually bring in or the value that they add. And that trend is only accelerating. It is only becoming more popular to promise a bunch of money. Hey.

我知道你上了大学，做了这些决定，打算偿还这笔债务，但不用担心。我们会直接印些钱。我们会帮你还清债务，尽管五年前上学的人都是自己还债的，对吧？因为他们想要政治选票。所以这种反对比特币的趋势是个大问题，因为这样下去他们会债台高筑。更重要的是，他们集体认知的决策就是通过印更多钞票来获取更多选票。

I know you went to college and you made these decisions, and you were gonna pay back this debt, but don't worry about it. We're gonna just print some money. We're gonna pay off that debt for you even though people that went to school five years ago paid for their debts, right, because they want the political vote. So that trend against Bitcoin is a massive issue because where this is gonna go is they're gonna be so in debt up to their eyeballs. And more importantly, their collective cognitive decision making is to just get more votes by wishing away more printing.

对吧？而你面对的这个东西是不可改变的。所以当政客们最终意识到这一点时，哦不，这简直就是即将到来的'完蛋了'时刻。那个时刻将会是，好吧，我们能抢谁？明白吗？

Right? And you're up against this thing that is immutable. And so once the politicians eventually get to the point where they realize, oh, no, it's literally an oh shit moment that's on the horizon. And that moment is gonna be, well, who can we rob? Okay?

我们能从哪里抢到比特币？这是根据他们的动机来思考的。政客是怎么想的？我如何能在影响尽可能少的人的情况下获得最多的比特币？我认为名单上的第一名就是拥有大量比特币的私人实体。

Where can we get the Bitcoin to rob? And this is thinking through their incentives. How does a politician think? How can I get the most amount of Bitcoin with impacting the least amount of people possible? And what I would argue is number one on that list is a private entity that has a lot of Bitcoin.

这就像是名单上的第一名。明白吗？因为你可以搜刮那些比特币，可能会造成影响，让20个人不高兴。但当你对上市公司这样做时，现在你得问自己，那家公司在标普500指数中吗？标普500指数中有多少人持有它？

That's like number one on the list. Okay? Because you can scrape that Bitcoin and you might have impact, you've made 20 people upset. But when you're doing it with a public company, now you have to ask yourself, is that public company in the S and P five hundred? And how many people in the S and P 500 own it?

我并不是说他们不会掠夺它。那可能是他们第一个去的地方。你永远不知道。但我在思考政客的动机，政客们想要掠夺某人。我现在就可以告诉你这一点。

And I'm not saying that they won't rug it. That might be the first place they go. You never know. But I'm thinking through the incentives of the politician, and the politicians want they're gonna rug somebody. I can tell you that right now.

他们会拿走比特币，因为会有不想坐牢的机构托管人。所以这就是他们的动机。我不想坐牢。所以是的，我会把比特币给你。明白吗？

They're gonna take the Bitcoin because it's gonna have an institutional custodian that does not wanna go to jail. So that's their incentives. I don't wanna go to jail. So yes, I'll give you the Bitcoin. Okay?

然后在他们给你比特币之后，你知道他们会做什么吗？他们会把美元钞票塞进你的喉咙。而比特币会那样移动。明白吗？比特币没了，但你得到了美元钞票，你现在拥有它们，而它们与比特币相比就是这样。

And then after they give you the Bitcoin, you know what they're gonna do? They're gonna jam dollar bills down your throat. And Bitcoin's gonna be moving like that. Okay? And the Bitcoin's gone, but you got the dollar bills and you got them here and now they're that compared to Bitcoin.

所以会有很多人将会非常...所以当我们谈论国库公司时，能否...这又回到了我今天早上说的。它们能跑赢比特币吗？能。它们带来更多风险吗？是的。

So there's a lot of people that are gonna have a really And so when we talk about treasury companies, can And this goes back to what I said this morning. Can they outperform Bitcoin? Yes. Do they come with more risk? Yes.

你在对比特币与持有国库公司的头寸规模进行风险评估时，是否考虑了国库公司国有化的风险？我认为大多数人都没有。这就是为什么从规模角度来看，如果你想尝试跑赢比特币，相对而言规模应该相当小。至少今天是这样，因为所有动机都指向威利刚才描述的情况。而且我会告诉你，我认为这是一个非常可能发生的事件。

Are you accounting for the nationalization of a treasury company in your risk assessment of your position size of Bitcoin versus owning a treasury company? I would argue most aren't. And that's why my from a sizing standpoint, I think the sizing should be pretty minimal relatively speaking if you wanna try to outperform Bitcoin. At least today, because we just like all the incentives are pointing to what Willie just described. And and I would tell you, I think that's a very probable event.

问题只是它实际上会如何展开。我们可能还有五年。可能还有十年。我不知道什么时候会发生。但根据我正在观察的动机以及它们将如何相互作用，这会很快导致那个结果。

It's just how it actually unfolds is the question. And we might be five years. We might be ten years. I don't know when that happens. But based on the incentives that I'm looking at and how they're gonna interact, it leads there pretty quickly.

没有什么智慧之言要补充

No words of wisdom to add

对此

to that.

没什么要补充的

Nothing to add.

我理解你的意思。Saylor的模式是通过债务推动比特币囤积。这是创新还是对比特币基本面的风险？

I get you. Saylor's model is debt fueled Bitcoin stacking. Is this innovation or risk to Bitcoin's fundamentals?

我认为这与个人借贷没什么不同。只是它发生在机构层面。所以如果他以五倍超额抵押比特币，并且能将其维持在4到5倍之间，就像你去申请贷款时存入比特币作为抵押，那个贷款价值比（LTV），对吧？你存入价值200美元的比特币借出100美元，那就是两倍超额抵押。而他以五倍超额抵押，但是在机构规模上操作。

I don't see it any different than borrowing and lending for the individual. Only it's happening at an institutional level. So if he's over collateralizing Bitcoin by five x, and he can kind of peg it between 4x and 5x, if you go and you want to take out a loan and you put Bitcoin on deposit, the LTV on it, right? And you're depositing $200 worth of Bitcoin to borrow a 100, that's over collateralization of two. And he's over collateralizing at a five, but he's doing it at an institutional size.

规模大小不同而已。对于很多不懂金融术语的人来说，他们就是无法理解他在做什么。但当我们说这些比率时，他的抵押率是五比一，我认为真正有趣的是那些股息支付是以法币计价的。如果我们运行幂律模型，假设幂律是有效的。我们之前有

The sizing is just different. And for a lot of people that don't understand the financial terminology, they just can't wrap their head around what he's doing. But when we say these ratios, he's over collateralized five to one, what else I think is really interesting is those dividend payments are denominated in fiat. If you run the power law, let's just say power law is valid. We had Mr.

Myshinskas先生今天早些时候在这里与大家讨论幂律和R平方值等。如果我们采用那个模型，取优先股的股息，并模拟未来十年的情况——如果以100美元发行且每年支付10美元股息，你知道如果把所有账面价值都转换为比特币，十年后那10美元的价值会变成多少吗？相对价值几乎为零。他仍然支付每股10美元，但你知道以比特币计算的价值是多少吗？

Myshinskas up here earlier today talking to you about the power law and the r squared values and all that. If we take that model and we take the dividends on preferred stock and you model it out for the next ten years, those dividends, if it's issued at a 100 and he's paying a $10 dividend annually, do you know what that $10 looks like ten years later if you swept all the book value into Bitcoin? It's almost zero in relative value. He's still paying the $10 per share. But you know what the value is in Bitcoin terms?

几乎为零。第一年后就只剩约6美元了。不是10美元，而是6美元。所以，真正理解将资产配置为比特币并以法币计价负债这一理念的人确实有其独到之处。如果你真正理解，这是一个非常强大的概念。

It's almost zero. After the first year, it's like $6. It's not $10, it's $6. So there's something to be said for a person who understands the idea of stacking your assets in Bitcoin and denominating your liabilities in fiat. It's a very powerful concept if you really understand it.

我甚至认为——这很有争议，但我还是要说——我认为抵押支持实际上优于五比一，仅仅因为他的这些资产...或者说比特币负债是法币？

And I would argue it's maybe even and this is very controversial, but I'll say it anyway. I would argue that the backing is better than five to one simply because he's of this assets or Bitcoin liabilities are fiat?

嗯，Strategy可能是这些公司中最稳健的。在这个周期中，你看到所有人都在效仿这个模式，但并非完全照搬。我们必须警惕正在承担的风险。Strategy最初发行可转换债务时，我记得是五年期债务。所以，我认为在上一个熊市中，如果不是债务期限延长了五年，Strategy可能已经接近清算边缘了。

Well, strategy is probably the most robust of these companies. And you see in this cycle everyone's following the model, but it's not the exact model. We have to be careful of the risks that are being taken. Strategy, originally when they were doing the convertible debt was I think it was a five year out debt. And so, you know, I think market strategy might have been close to liquidation in the last bear market had the debt not been pushed out five years.

所以，我看到现在很多公司都采用较短期债务，使用旧式的可转债模式，过去策略是八到十二年，现在他们转向优先股。看看MetaPlanet，他们采用的对冲基金玩法，通过来回操作模拟市价发行，实质上模拟Mark策略中的ATM（按市价发行）。但他们一次性承接大额债务，比如3亿美元，然后向市场出售以补充资金、偿还债务。如果市场在错误时机转向，他们无法进行这种市场操作，就会被清算。而且这不是四年期债务。

So, I see a lot of these companies now have quite short dated debt using the older model of convertibles, where strategy went to eight to twelve years, and now they're doing the preferred stock. You look at MetaPlanet, they're doing the sort of hedge fund play where there's a hedge fund that they're doing a back and forth back and forth to simulate a at the market offering to effectively simulate the ATMs that Mark's strategy are doing. But they're taking big tranches of debt, 300,000,000 at a time, and then selling that into the market to replenish, to then pay off the debt. If the market turns on that at the wrong time and they cannot do this market operation, you're gonna get liquidated. And it's not four year debt.

这不是八年期债务。这是即时债务。因此你真的需要审视那些模仿者，关注债务结构和清算风险中的危险。就我个人看法，MetaPlanet非常擅长市场时机选择，也许这就是他们的游戏。他们绝对买在了上一次大跌的最低点，单笔买入就抛出了近3亿美元。

It's not eight year debt. It's immediate debt. And so you really need to look at the copycats and look at the dangers in the debt structuring and liquidation risk. And, you know, my opinion of MetaPlanet is that they are quite expert at timing the market, maybe that's the game that they played. They absolutely bought the bottom wick of the last major dip and unloaded almost 300,000,000 in that one buy.

所以也许他们证明了能把握市场时机，但这就是你购买的东西。你购买的是一个选择择时市场的国库策略，从他们的结构方式看，他们认为能在顶部解除债务。要知道，这类国库公司很多，需要处理大量文件。你需要清楚自己买的是什么。这里面有风险。

So maybe they're proving they can time the market, but that's what you're buying. You're buying a treasury that has opted to time the market, and they think they can unwind the debt at the top from the looks of how they've structured things. And, you know, there's a lot of these treasury companies, a lot of paperwork to work through. You wanna know what you're buying. There's risks in it.

Mike的策略是蓝筹股策略，非常非常稳健。当然，一切仍有风险。我担心的是那些水平不同或能力有限的模仿者——有多少人能提供优先股？他们的选择是什么？

Mike's strategy is the blue chip. Very, very robust. Still risks, obviously, with everything. My concern is the copycats that aren't doing it at the same level or have you know, how many of these guys can offer preferred stock? What are their options?

最近的很多潮流是从小规模起步，快速增加杠杆，提高收益率，实现快速增长。我们现在处于牛市的尾声，所以我认为很多人会受伤，将出现大规模的MNAV（每股净资产）压缩。一些最弱的国库公司将面临清算，我们将看到谁能在接下来的熊市中生存，什么会崩溃。我在想TradeFire的评论会是什么，当我观察那些比特币或加密领域的人时。看看他们做了什么，看看什么崩溃了，又一轮对我们的笑话。

A lot of the latest vogue is to really start small and run up the leverage, get the yield right up, and grow fast. We're tail end of a bull market right now, so I think a lot of people are gonna get hurt, and we'll have massive MNAV compression. We're gonna have liquidations of some of the weakest treasury companies, and we'll see who's, you know, who's gonna survive and what's gonna break over the next bear market. And I'm wondering about what the commentary from TradeFire will be as I look at those Bitcoin or crypto people. Look what they did there and look what broke and another cycle of jokes on us.

是的。将会是适者生存，并且周围会有很多恐惧、不确定性和怀疑（FUD），对吧？那么，在采用方面，Willy，你估计到2030年2月会有10亿比特币用户。你认为国库公司和企业的采用会加速这一进程吗？

Yep. There'll be survival of the fittest and a lot of FUD around that. Right? So in terms of adoption, Willy, you've estimated 1,000,000,000 Bitcoin users by 02/1930. Do you see treasury companies and corporate adoption accelerate this pace?

老实说，我不确定。我甚至不确定他们的预测是否会...这很难计算，比如，什么算作一个采用者？你知道吗？

I'm not sure, to be honest. I'm not even sure if their projection will it's very hard to count, like, what do you call an adopter? Like You know?

今天，它是，嗯，为了...

Today, it's Well, to to

按你的观点，这就像如果策略被纳入标普500指数。有多少人拥有SPY指数基金？确实。他们通过这种方式持有比特币

your point, it's like if strategy gets included into the S and P 500. How many people own SPY index? Exactly. The fact that they have Bitcoin through

你称之为代理。对吧？

You called it surrogate. Right?

是的。所以目前情况还很模糊。我们拥有大量资产，基本上我们的风险敞口对标的是标普500指数。即使在养老基金中，你也是在为退休储蓄。

Yeah. So it's it's very blurry right now. We own a lot of assets. We run pretty much his exposures to the S and P 500. Even if it's in a pension fund, then you're saving your retirement.

你并不知道自己具体持有什么，但里面肯定会有标普500的成分。这意味着比特币也在其中。所以我认为这些衡量标准变得有些模糊了。我之前一直在追踪自我托管和交易所托管的情况，但它的增长速度相当可观。

You don't know what you're owning, but it's gonna be the S and P 500 in there. So that means Bitcoin's in there. So I think these metrics become a little bit more clouded. I was tracking self custody and exchange custody. So but that's it's growing at a, you know, a decent clip.

全球近5%的人口接触过这种资产，这还不包括那些类似标普500模式的情况。所以，是的。考虑到这一点，现在仍然处于相当早期的阶段。我认为确实还很早期。没错。

Almost 5% of the world population has exposure to this asset, excluding the sort of S and P 500 pattern. So yeah. And and given that, it's still quite early. I think it's still quite early. Yeah.

我们仍然处于早期。

We're still early.

我们仍然处于早期。但我一直在以世代的时间尺度来思考。这种资产诞生才十六年，市值只有2万亿美元——我的意思是，它可能还需要增长100倍，而这可能需要几十年的时间才能实现。

We're still early. But I've been thinking in terms of generational sort of times. We're sixteen years into this asset, and it's only $2,000,000,000,000 I mean, it's probably gone 100x to grow and it's probably gonna take decades to get there.

那更长期的预测呢？因为我听你谈到过几千年后，甚至一万年后的情况，我听过你对比特币做出非常长远的预测。

What about longer term projections? Because I've heard you speak about thousands of years from now, like ten thousand years I've heard you give really long projections about Bitcoin.

嗯，我重视长远思考，这是肯定的。我认为我们被困在1971年至今的这个法币世界里，我把这看作是一场流动性危机的纸币化。而金银作为货币已经存在了六千年，经历了农业时代、工业时代。现在我们处于数字时代。

Well, I value long term thinking. That's for sure. And we are trapped inside I think inside this fiat world in 1971 to now, and I think of that as a paperization of a liquidity crisis. And we had gold and silver as money for six thousand years, and it's been the agrarian age, the industrial age. We're in the digital age.

我认为法币最终会崩溃。现在唯一特殊的是全世界同时陷入了困境。所以我们都在某种程度上自我贬值直至湮灭，而当某个王国贬值时，它们崩溃得很快，因为大家都跑向了金本位的王国。所以这也会崩溃，那么什么会取代黄金？不会再是黄金了，因为它的稀缺性不再——不是一百年，也不是一千年后。

And I think the fiat will blow up eventually. The only thing that's special about now is the whole world got rugged all at once. So we're all sort of debasing ourselves to oblivion where when one kingdom debased, they blew up really quick because everyone ran to the gold backed kingdoms. So this will blow up, and then what replaces gold? And it's not gonna be gold again because you can't get it's no longer scarce, not in a hundred years, not a thousand years.

我的意思是，天哪。谁知道那时我们会有什么技术？按照技术发展的速度，开采小行星也就是几十年内的事。所以你必须用某种能随技术发展而增长的东西来保障稀缺性和账本——那就是能源，而比特币已经达到了5%的采用率。很难再追上这样的东西了。

I mean, gosh. Who knows what technology we'll have then? And it's only a few decades away to mine asteroids given the pace of that technology. So you have to secure the scarcity, the ledger, with something that grows with technology and that's energy, and Bitcoin's had the 5% adoption. Very hard to catch something like that.

对于货币来说，只有两个属性。一是被接受。二是安全可靠，这就是黄金的稀缺性所在。而其他所有特性都只是人们对黄金的附加想法，比如它应该可分割。

For money, there's only two properties of money. One is it's accepted. Number two, it's secure and robust, and that was the scarcity element of gold. And all the other stuff was just people thinking about gold. It should be divisible.

它应该是持久的。我们曾经用原子来保障账本安全，但这已经不再适用了。纵观这四千年来的技术发展，它必须是一种能源币，而我们正好拥有一种。它已经触达了数亿人，很快将达到十亿。

It should be durable. And that was us using atoms to secure the ledger, but that doesn't apply anymore. And so you pan this four to thousand years of technology. It's gotta be an energy coin, and we've got one. And it's reached hundreds of millions of people already, soon to be a billion.

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Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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好了，回到节目。

All right, back to the show.

只是我最近注意到关于未来和比特币采用的一些事情。有人注意到Grok是个绝对硬核的比特币极端主义者吗？还有别人注意到吗？我是认真的。以至于你看到那些典型的传统金融人士，他们就是不懂比特币。

Just something that I've noticed recently on the future and Bitcoin adoption. Has anybody noticed Grok is an absolute hardcore Bitcoin maxi? Has anybody else noticed that? I really mean it. So much so that you see the typical trade fi people that just don't understand Bitcoin.

它们已经存在了无数个世纪，而且似乎每天都有更多。我记得早期的时候，我会进去回复，花时间试图解释这一切。而现在，就像，嘿，Grok，告诉这个人为什么他们错了。然后我就走了。我只是没时间坐在那里。

They've been around for eons, and it seems like every day there's more of them. And I remember in the early days, I would go in and I would reply, I would take my time trying to explain it and all that. And nowadays, it's just like, hey, Grok, tell this person why they're wrong. And just like, I'm gone. I just don't have time to sit there.

令人惊讶的是，Grok 会把所有事情都摆出来。然后真正有趣的是，那个人开始和 Grok 争论，而 Grok 会回来，一个接一个地敲打下一个论点。然后其他人也加入进来，整个帖子变成了 Grok 给所有人灌输橙色药丸的阵列。我认为我们正处在某个非常、非常重大的事情的边缘，那就是今天我们看到人工智能时，我们觉得它通常是对的。它相当不错。

And what's amazing is Grok just lays it all out. And then what's really funny is then the person starts arguing with Grok and Grok is coming back and just kinda just hammering the next point and the next point. And then other people are chiming in, and it's turned into like this array of just Grok orange pilling everybody in the thread. And the reason why I think that this is we're just on the cusp of something really, really big, which is today we look at the AI and we're like, it's usually right. It's pretty good.

对吧？五年后，如果你还在和人工智能争论，我认为在大多数情况下你只会显得很愚蠢，除非你是某个非常深奥领域的顶尖专家。你可能会有比人工智能更敏锐的洞察力，这涉及到局部智能才是真正发现新事物的东西这一整个概念。但对于一个只是随便看看或者并不真正了解某个话题的人来说，他们与人工智能互动，人工智能给他们这些答案。他们原本认为比特币是庞氏骗局，而这个人工智能正在让他们大开眼界。

Right? Five years from now, if you're arguing with an AI, I think you're just gonna kinda be stupid for the most part, unless you're just like a leading expert in something that's like really deep. You might have a keen insight that's better than the AI, which gets into this whole idea of like localized intelligence is the thing that really kinda discovers new things. But for a person who's just kind of like a casual observer or somebody who doesn't really understand a topic, and they're interacting with AI and AI is giving them these answers. And they thought Bitcoin was a Ponzi scheme in their mind, and this AI is just like lighting them up.

然后所有人和大家在他们与人工智能互动时嘲笑他们。我的意思是，我确实在 Jim Chanos 身上看到了这一点。他 literally 是靠做空安然公司成名的。我的意思是，他是真家伙。他现在正在做空微策略公司。

And then all the crowd and everybody's laughing at them as they're interacting with the AI. I mean, I literally saw this with Jim Chano's. He literally made his name in shorting Enron. I mean, he's the real deal. And he's shorting MicroStrategy right now.

Grok 也在那里，他在那里和 Grok 争论，而 Grok 正在把他们撕碎。所以我认为这是一个重要的、将有助于教育过程的大事，因为人们在某个时间点只会说，好吧，这个东西真的很聪明，而我在这里和它争论，所以我肯定是错的。这会有点不同，因为你知道你是在和某种超级智能打交道。你不是在和一个留着莫西干头、有很多追随者的人打交道，然后你觉得，嗯，他可能很蠢。

And Grok was in there, and he's there arguing with Grok, and Grok is just tearing them apart. So I think this is a big important thing that's gonna help in the education process because people at a certain point are just gonna say, okay. Well, this thing's, like, really smart and here I am arguing with it, so I must be wrong. And it's gonna be a little bit different because you know you're dealing with something that's of super intelligence. You're not just dealing with this guy who's got a mohawk, who's got all these followers, you're like, yeah, he's probably stupid.

我的意思是，继续人工智能这个话题，我认为人工智能和比特币之间有很好的协同效应。如果你想一想，人工智能未来会使用哪种货币，人工智能代理。这不仅仅是关于教育，还有营运资金等等，等等。显然是比特币，没有其他选择，因为就像数字代理、数字思维与数字货币一起工作。所以这是一件非常强大的事情，甚至很多比特币持有者还没有理解。

I mean, to continue on the AI topic, I think there's a good synergy between AI and Bitcoin. If you'll think about it, what kind of money AI will use in the future, AI agents. It's not only about educating, but also working capital, etcetera, etcetera. Obviously it's Bitcoin, there's no other option because it's like digital agents, digital minds working with digital money. So that's a very powerful thing that a lot of Bitcoiners even don't understand yet.

无论会有熊市、牛市还是什么，在某种程度上未来非常光明，我们有一个巨大的机会。我们实际上还不知道人工智能的全部能力，而它们将会使用数字货币形式，并且绝对不会是法币。

Whether there will be bear market, bull market, whatever, it's a very bright future in a way that we have a huge opportunity. We don't know actually yet the full capabilities of AI and they're gonna use digital form of money and it's definitely not gonna be a fiat.

为什么不会是超声货币，以太坊呢？

Why won't it be ultrasound money, Ethereum?

不。不可能。我认为如果 Grok 明白了，我的意思是，其他人工智能也会明白的。

No. No way. I think if Grok got it, so I mean, the rest of AI will get it as well.

所以这里有一个我比较关心的问题，因为我喜欢报道央行数字货币（CBDCs）这个话题。那么你认为，你是否和我一样，认为那些国家、政府和全球组织会在未来几年里四处奔走，试图在世界各国实施这些央行数字货币，而比特币继续做它该做的事，同时美国在将其整合进传统金融方面已经领先。这两件事将在世界范围内并行发生。不管他们喜不喜欢，他们所有的实验都会失败，因为比特币将会胜出。你同意我的看法吗，还是你认为事情会以其他任何方式发展？

So here's a question that's like close to my heart because I like covering this topic of CBDCs. So do you think are you with me on this camp thinking that those states and governments and global organizations are gonna be running around trying to implement those CBDCs in different countries around the world in the next few years while Bitcoin continues to do what it does, while The US has taken the lead on integrating that into the traditional finance. And those two things are going to be happening in parallel around the world. And whether they like it or not, all their experimentation is gonna fail because Bitcoin's gonna prevail. Are you with me on that or do you see it I think going it's any other

不仅仅是因为比特币，而是因为私营部门实际上已经掌握了稳定币并且做得更好。所以这不是央行数字货币（CBDC）的问题，也不是比特币与CBDC的对决，更像是Tether与CBDC或其他任何从事稳定币业务的私营实体的竞争，因为这已经是一个巨大的市场，拥有庞大的流动性。要超越像Tezar这样拥有1600亿美元稳定币规模的平台真的很难。而且采用率还在增加，人们正在使用它。我认为他们也无法占领这个市场。

not only because of Bitcoin, because the private sector actually gets stablecoins and does stablecoins better. So it's not CBDC that It's not Bitcoin versus CBDC, it's like Tether versus CBDC or any other private entity that works with stablecoins because it's already like a huge market, huge amount of liquidity there. And it's really hard to outperform like something like Tezar that has 160,000,000,000 worth of stablecoin. And it's like the adoption is increasing, people are using it. And I guess there's no way for them to capture that market as well.

但比特币加上私营稳定币，我认为在某种程度上是无敌的。

But Bitcoin plus private stablecoins, I think unbeatable in a way.

我会这么说：你和那些关注Tether或任何大型稳定币的人交谈，他们只会说这就是事实上的CBDC。如果他们需要阻止一笔交易，你知道，Tether或Circle或其他任何公司都可以接到美国政府的通知，他们可以说，嘿，我们不喜欢那笔交易，我们希望你们撤销它。如果你认为他们不会撤销，那你就太天真了。

I would just You talk to people that look at Tether or any large stablecoin, and they just say it's a de facto CBDC. If they need to stop a transaction, you know, Tether or Circle or whoever can get a tap on the shoulder from the US government, they can say, hey. We didn't like that transaction. We want you to reverse it. And if you don't think that they would reverse it, you're really naive.

我的意思是，它只不过是美元体系的延伸而已。所以，为什么CBDC总是会输给比特币？嗯，它总是会输给比特币，因为那种稳定币的核心所代表的，只是政府过度支出、扩大货币供应以及需要通过每年以10%的速度扩张M2来支付税收的表现。这就是它所代表的。至于他们能否深入到像NatSAS那样的细节层面，我不知道，但我认为任何使用那些稳定币的人都应该假设他们是能被监控的。

I mean, it's just an extension of the dollar system is all it is. And so, like, why is the CBDC always gonna fail against Bitcoin? Well, it's always gonna fail against Bitcoin because at the core of what that stablecoin represents, it's just a manifestation of government overspending and expanding the money supply and needing to pay for their taxes by continuing to expand the M2 at 10% a year. So that's what that representation is. Whether they can peer into whatever as far down as the NatSAS detail, I have no idea, but I think anybody using one of those should just assume that they are.

嗯，我觉得这很讽刺，因为银行早在2020年，也就是大约2013年、14年Tiller出现的时候，就关闭了交易所的银行业务，因为当时根本没有银行服务可用。所以它们成了事实上的银行，而且变得如此庞大，以至于当比特币涨到一百万美元时，它们即将取代中国购买国债的地位。因此，美国政府变得依赖比特币。因为运作方式是，交易所有一个订单簿，一边是比特币，另一边是美元，但那不是美元，是Tether。

Well, I think it's ironic because the banks shut down banking for the exchanges back in '20 you know, early days in 2013, '14 roughly when Tiller came to be because there was no banking to be had. So they were the de facto banking, and they got so big that they're now on track to displace China's buying of treasuries when Bitcoin hits a million dollars. And so therefore, the US government becomes dependent on Bitcoin. Because how it works is there's an order book on the exchange. You got Bitcoin on one side, you've got US dollars on the other side, but it wasn't US dollars, it was Tether.

所以随着流动性增加，Tether的发行量也越来越大以进行交易。现在它已经到了取代最大民族国家购买美国国债的地步。这相当...而且很讽刺。他们当初争先恐后地通过《天才法案》。而你不得不

So as the liquidity increases, there's more and more expansion of Tether to trade for it. And now it's at the point where displacing the largest nation states to buy the US treasuries. It's quite a and it's ironic. They were tripping over themselves to pass the Genius Act. And you have

问自己，为什么？为什么这些政客争先恐后地要让这个东西通过？答案很简单。他们需要有人来购买他们所有的债务，而买家就是稳定币发行方。看到这一切如何真正发生并达到顶点真的很有趣，政府不得不开始发行期限越来越短的票据，因为没有人愿意购买长期票据，因为通胀风险太大了。

to ask yourself, why? Why were these politicians tripping over themselves to get this thing passed? And the answer is really simple. They needed a buyer for all their debt, and the buyer is the stablecoin issuers. And it's really kind of interesting to see how that all really transpired and really kinda came to a head is the government had to start issuing shorter and shorter duration paper because there was no buyers for anything that was long duration because there was so much inflation risk.

他们甚至在那里发行一个月期的货币。就像，那么谁会购买所有这些一个月期的货币呢？嗯，你知道吗？稳定币发行方简直爱死这个了，因为他们可以用它来背书一切。他们可以吞下所有这些新发行的票据。

They're down there issuing one month money. It's like, well, who's going to buy all this one month money? Well, you know what? The stablecoin issuers literally, like, they love that because they can back everything. They can gobble up all this new issuance.

他们没有通胀风险，如果他们购买的是三十年期的票据，他们可不想要那种通胀风险，因为他们不知道它是否能被完全背书，对吧？否则他们就不得不不断展期来试图管理风险。但如果期限真的很短，那对它们来说实际上是完美的。然后那些真正聪明的人，他们会怎么处理他们收到的所有利息呢？

They don't have the inflation risk that if they were buying thirty year paper, they don't want that inflation risk because they don't know if it's gonna be fully backed. Right? Or they'd have to keep rolling it to try to manage that. But if it's really short duration, it's actually perfect for them. And then the really smart ones, what are they gonna do with all the coupons that they're receiving?

他们只会把它扫进比特币里。然后它就真的有背书了，因为比特币每年以40%到50%的速度上涨。这就像是额外的超额抵押。我觉得这一切最有趣的是，你 literally 有贝莱德和所有其他银行在玩部分准备金游戏。他们甚至金库里都没有他们发行的东西。

They're just gonna sweep it into Bitcoin. And then it's really backed because that thing's going up at 40 to 50% annualized. It's like extra over collateralized. What I find so interesting with all of this is you literally have BlackRock and all these other banks that are playing a fractional reserve game. They don't even have what they're issuing in the vault.

但偏偏有一家公司，金库里有超额比特币作为全额抵押，它们赚的利润却比那些玩庞氏骗局的公司还要多。那些凭空发行代币的公司，反而赚得没它们多。如果这还不能向你展示自然市场力量正在自我修复，那我就不知道什么能了。因为在我看来这简直是个奇迹——一个超额抵押的项目竟然能彻底打败那些完全像庞氏骗局一样作弊的项目。

But yet you have a company that's fully collateralized with extra Bitcoin in the vault, and they're making more profit than the ones that are playing the Ponzi game. And they're getting the issue, like, literally from thin air, and they're making more money than them. If that doesn't show you, like, the natural market forces that nature is trying to heal itself, I don't know what does. Because it's just it's miraculous to me that you can have something that's over collateralized just whipping the pants off of the ones that are literally cheating as if it's a total Ponzi scheme.

总结一下，回到我们最初的问题：这个机构化阶段是趋势浪潮还是转折点？你对此有什么最终看法？未来两到五年内，你认为比特币会如何发展？你如何看待这个演变过程？

So wrapping up and going back to our initial question of whether this institutional phase is a trend horse or tipping point, what are your last thoughts about this? Where are we gonna see Bitcoin going over the next couple of years to five years? How do you see that evolving?

我认为机构化阶段只是比特币发展过程中的一个必然阶段。我们无法避免这一点。所以不管你喜欢与否，有句话说得好：比特币之所以伟大，是因为连你的敌人也可以使用它。

I think the institutional phase is just a logical step in evolution of Bitcoin. We cannot avoid that. So whether you like it or not, I mean, there's a saying that Bitcoin is good because even your enemies can use that.

我补充一下。对于正在观看这个节目并感到困惑的普通大众，你有什么建议？

And I'll add to that. And what's an advice you would give the plebs us that are watching this and fooling?

没有别的，就是自我教育。这是最好的建议。我的意思是，自己做研究，自我教育。自我托管，我一直强调这一点。

No. Just educate yourself. That's the best advice. I mean, do your own research, educate yourself. Self custody, I mean, always about that.

不过是的，抱歉。我不喜欢纸比特币，但我理解这是一个过程，只是市场的一个阶段。我认为机构进场购买越来越多比特币最终对我们也有好处。因为先是ETF，然后是上市公司财务储备，接着是银行——而银行服务的终端客户正是我们。我设想，一旦银行对比特币感到放心，你就能去当地银行用比特币进行抵押贷款。

But yeah, sorry. I mean, I don't like paper Bitcoin, but I do understand that it's a path, it's just a phase in the market. I guess institutions going there and buying more and more Bitcoin in the end, it's better for us as well. Because first it's ETF, then it's treasury companies, then it's banks and banks serve the end customers, which we are. At some point, I just envision that as soon as banks will get comfortable with Bitcoin, you will be able to go into your local bank and I mean, borrow against your Bitcoin.

交易、出售、购买都会成为可能。我认为机构采用是不可避免的，而且已经在发生，但希望这是往好的方向发展。

I don't know, trade it, sell it, buy it. I think the institutional adoption is inevitable and it's happening already, but hopefully it's happening for good.

回想2015年，如果你问一个比特币爱好者：带我们展望二三十年后，你会怎么描述那时的情况？他们会说：我认为比特币将成为新的交换媒介和价值储存手段。全世界都在使用它——个人、企业、政府，就像乌托邦一样，比特币完全取代了美元。

When I just look at if you would talk to a Bitcoiner back in 2015 and you say, alright, take us twenty, thirty years into the future, how do you see this? They would say, well, I think Bitcoin's the new medium of exchange. It's the store of value. The whole world is using it. People, businesses, governments, like the utopia is Bitcoin has completely supplanted the dollar.

所以当我们看到此时此刻机构开始使用它，政府开始试验性地将其作为战略储备，而他们都在抱怨和反对时，我看着他们说：好吧。你们到底是怎么认为我们会从那个阶段发展到现在的？但这并不意味着一切安全，也不意味着所有事情都完全按预期发展。我并不是在暗示这一点。

So when we're at this moment in time institutions are starting to use it, governments are playing around with it, having a strategic reserve, and they're all upset and all up in arms, I'm looking at them saying, okay. Like, how in the world did you ever think we were gonna go from there to here? And so it doesn't mean it's safe. It doesn't mean that everything is going exactly like it should. I'm not trying to imply that.

我只是说，如果我们要从零开始发展到全世界都用它作为结算所有交易的单位，那么机构迟早会进场，政府也迟早会开始使用它。这些年来我在这个领域学到的是：总有些人做得很好，也总有些人做得很愚蠢，他们会爆雷并伤害很多人。但你知道吗？

I'm just saying, if we're going from nothing to the whole world using this as the unit to settle all exchange, At some point, the institutions are going to start coming. At some point, the governments are going to start using it. And the one thing that I've learned through the years in the space is there's going to be some that do it really well. And there's going to be some that do it really stupidly, and they're going to blow up and they're to hurt a bunch of people. And you know what?

这就是自由市场。这就是自由市场。我们想要自由市场。我们是比特币人。我们想要自由市场。

That's a free market. That's a free market. We want free markets. We're Bitcoiners. We want free markets.

早些时候我们在台上时，瑞士的马克斯，那位来自瑞士的先生，他谈到借贷必须全部超额抵押。我看着他说，有一个国家明白了。但这并不意味着世界上每个国家都会明白。综上所述，我给观众的建议是，如果你只是自我托管比特币，如果你有技术能力做到这一点，根据我对这一切发展方向的判断，你会做得很好。而且你不需要喜欢，只要你的生活方式不是特别奢侈，那就应该足够了。

When we were up on stage earlier, Max, in Switzerland, the gentleman from Switzerland, he was talking about how everything has to be over collateralized in borrowing and lending. I'm looking at him saying, there's a country that gets it. That doesn't mean every country in the world's gonna get it. But with all that said, my advice to the crowd is, if you just take self custody of Bitcoin, if you have the technical competence to do that, you are gonna do very well based on where I think all of this is heading. And you don't have to like as long as you don't have like a really lavish lifestyle, that should be good enough.

对吧？如果你想玩点花样，想做所有这些其他事情，当然可以，买一个国债公司。只要确保投入不多。就像，如果你想找点乐子什么的，聪明点就行。我不知道。

Right? If you wanna get fancy and you wanna do all this other, sure, buy a treasury company. Just make sure it's not a lot. Like, just be smart about it if you wanna have fun or whatever. I don't know.

但是，是的，自我托管比特币就是全部了。

But, yeah, self custody Bitcoin is all there is to it.

是的。我认为其实什么都没有改变。就是自我托管，掌握你自己的密钥。其他一切都只是入口，越来越多的资本涌入，现在是机构阶段，意味着更大的资本正在进入。请务必让比特币不可被卷走（unruggable），这意味着自我托管。

Yeah. I don't think it's anything's changed, really. It's the self custody hold your own keys. Everything else has been just on ramps, more and more capital coming in, and now it's institutional phase, meaning bigger capital is coming in. And just please make Bitcoin unruggable, which means self custody.

如果我们不进行自我托管，那么它就完全可以被卷走（ruggable），就像我们刚才谈到的糟糕路径一样。如果每个人都开始把所有东西都放进机构里，比特币就可能被卷走。所以保持简单，自我托管。什么都没有改变。只是入口更大了。

If we're not self custodying, then it's totally ruggable and what we just talked about earlier in the bad path. Bitcoin can be rugged if everyone's starting to put everything into institutions. So keep it simple, self custody. Nothing's changed. On wraps are bigger.

就这样。边缘那些是复杂的小东西。每个周期都有你可以被卷走的复杂东西，需要消化的事情，我们可以学习，但真的什么都没有改变。自我托管。

That's all. It's complicated little stuff around the edges. Every cycle, there's complicated stuff that you can get rugged on, things to digest, we can learn, but nothing's really changed. Self custody.

威利，普雷斯顿，马克斯，保持开放。保持好奇。保持谦逊。积累聪（sats）。谢谢。

Willie, Preston, Max, stay open. Stay curious. Stay humble. Stack stats. Thank you.

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