BTC250：比特币牛市结束了吗？与Tuur Demeester对话（比特币播客）

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大家好，欢迎收听本周三发布的比特币基础知识播客。今天，我再次有幸与传奇投资者、比特币信徒Ter Demeester同台，我们从2016年起就开始讨论比特币。Ter刚刚发布了一份题为《如何为2025年比特币热潮布局》的新报告，这绝对是一份必读之作。我们将深入探讨当前周期的真实情况——从投机狂潮的缺席到机构如何入场，以及为何这可能是真正的机构牛市。

Hey, everyone. Welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin fundamentals podcast. Today, I'm joined once again by legendary investor and Bitcoiner, Ter Demeester, someone I've been talking about Bitcoin with since all the way back to 2016. Tor just dropped a new report titled How to Position Yourself for the Bitcoin Boom in 2025, and it's a must read. We dive deep into what's really happening in this current cycle from the absence of a speculative mania to how institutions are moving in and why this might be the true institutional bull run.

我们还将探讨政府可能实施的托管没收、人工智能的长期影响，以及整体货币重置等关键议题。这期内容不容错过。请放松心情，希望各位享受节目。

We also explore critical like potential custodial confiscation by governments and long term implications of AI and just the monetary reset in general. This is one you won't wanna miss. So sit back, relax, and I hope you guys enjoy the show.

庆祝十周年。您现在收听的是由投资者播客网络制作的《比特币基础知识》。有请主持人Preston Pysh。

Celebrating ten years. You are listening to Bitcoin fundamentals by The Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pysh.

大家好，欢迎收听本周节目。我很荣幸再次邀请到独一无二的Ter Demeester做客播客。Ter，我想我们录制关于比特币和这个领域的节目大概从2016、2017年就开始了。

Hey, everyone. Welcome to this week's show. I have the one and only Ter Demeester back on the podcast. Ter, I think we've been recording shows about Bitcoin and this entire space since, I don't even know, 2016, 2017.

2016年。没错。

2016. Yeah.

是啊，可能2015年就开始了。记不清了，但确实是很久了。很高兴你能再次来节目。

Yeah. Maybe even 2015. I don't know. But it's been a long time. So great to have you back.

多年来我从你那里学到很多，这次也不例外。你刚发布了一份新报告《如何为2025年比特币热潮布局》，听众可以通过节目说明中的链接免费下载阅读这份约24页的深度报告，内容非常精彩。

I've learned so much from you through the years, and now is no different. And you have a new report that you just published, how to position yourself for the Bitcoin boom in 2025. This is a free download that people will have a link in the show notes that if people wanna download this and read it, it is amazing. It's about 24 pages. You go into depth.

我们会在节目中讨论报告的很多内容。不过首先，是什么促使你又写出这样一份重磅报告？

We're gonna cover a lot of that on the show. But, yeah, what was the impetus for writing yet another banger of a report?

很高兴你喜欢。主要有两个原因：一是我在奥斯汀与Unchained合作时，我们讨论举办活动等合作事宜，他们问我是否考虑写新报告。

Yeah. I'm glad you like it. Well, it was twofold. One, it was at some point, we were just talking you know, I I worked with Unchained here in Austin, and we were just talking about our general collaboration and doing some events and things like that. And they were, like, asking, like, oh, have you considered writing a new report?

我当时就想，其实不是因为我总在熊市里这么做，但给我点时间考虑下。我确实有种与共识相左的感觉，通常这正是发表观点的好时机。似乎大家普遍认为10万就挺好，我们应该对此感到满足。

And I was like, actually not because I always do them in the bear market, but give me some time and I'll think about it. And I did I did have that feeling of kinda disagreeing with the consensus Yeah. Which is usually a good time to put something out. And it seems like there was a kind of a consensus that a 100,000 is nice. We should be happy with that.

我们就接受这是个四年周期吧，价格会回落，然后我们在此获利了结。但我心里想：未必如此。我还没看到狂热迹象，直觉告诉我这里还有很大空间。

Let's just accept it's a four year cycle, so we're gonna go back down and then we'll take some profits here and call it a day. And I was like, I don't think so. Yeah. I haven't seen a mania. Like, it just my gut was like, I think there's a lot more here.

这成为我再次深入研究数据、寻找真相的强大动力。

So it was a great motivation to dig in again and actually look at the data and see what comes out.

有趣的是你以这个开场，因为我完全同意——经历过几次牛市后，现在这个阶段完全感受不到过去减半周期那种投机狂热。说实话，现在甚至感觉有点熊市气息，对大多数人来说就像什么都没发生。

It's funny that you start off with that because I completely agree with you having been through a couple bull markets. This right now doesn't feel anything like a speculative mania or anything that is like the past cycles at this point in time from the halving. Right? If anything, it feels somewhat bearish right now as far as just, like, almost like nothing even happened, I think, for most

尽管价格两年半里已经翻了四倍。

Even though the price has quadrupled in Yeah. Two years and a half.

是啊，以往周期总会有持续6-9个月的投机性暴涨期，价格每天疯狂上涨3-5%，连续半年不停歇，但这次我们完全没看到这种景象。

Yeah. I mean, the previous cycles always had this speculative blow off that usually lasted, what, six to nine months where it was just the price was literally raging three to 5% what felt like every day for, like, six months straight, and we haven't seen anything like that.

现在买入的人可能都带着厌恶情绪，觉得必须配置些资产但又不情愿。远没到人们认为这是解决所有问题的终极答案那种阶段。

No. I think whoever's buying is probably, like, hate buying right now. Like, they they kinda feel like they have to own some, and they don't like Trump, but, you know, it's like you gotta diversify somehow. I just yeah. It's not at that stage where people feel like this is the be all end all answer to all, you know, all problems.

还没到那种程度。这是机构周期——不知道你是否同意，但我认为这才是真正的机构周期，散户还没真正进场。

It's not there. And we have it's an institutional cycle. I don't know if you agree, but I think this is the real institutional cycle. I don't think retail is really in this market yet.

哇哦。你的报告开篇提到「巨鲸在抛售」这个流行观点，但实际上你的研究表明巨鲸正在持仓而非投降，暗示着牛市中期情绪。能详细说说你观察的指标吗？

Wow. Yeah. Your report kinda starting off there, the narrative or the talking point is whales are selling. But in your report, you kind of say you're not saying the opposite, but your report suggests that whales are holding rather than capitulating and signaling a mid bull sentiment. Talk to us a little bit about this and what metrics you're looking at that are suggesting that.

我重点观察HODLer净头寸变化指标，它汇总所有币种但会根据币龄加权。关键是看净持仓还是净转移（通常预示抛售），图表上会出现明显的峰值波动。

Yeah. So the HODLer net position change is a metric I like to look at, and it basically looks at all the coins in aggregate but weighted for their age. Mhmm. Are we seeing net hodling or are we seeing net moving of coins, which usually indicates selling? And so you see these spikes in the graph.

嗯。通常在牛市初期，市场几乎毫无波动。大户们只是坚定持有。过去六到九个月里，我们确实看到过几次下跌，但价格从未真正突破10万大关。是的。

Mhmm. And usually in in an early bull market, there's just no no movement whatsoever. The whales are just stoically holding. And we have seen a few spikes down, but no moves really above a 100,000 in the past six to nine months. Yeah.

所以你会看到那些小幅波动。实际上，在我稍晚于报告发布的视频演示中，又出现了一次下跌，就是人们热议的那次8万比特币抛售，导致价格仅下跌了3%左右。难以置信。我还查了早年的Bitfinex黑客事件，我记得那次涉及16万枚比特币。

So you see those little spikes. And actually, in my video presentation, which was a little bit after the report, there was another spike down and that was that 80,000, the one that people were talking about, 80,000 Bitcoin being sold, which led to a I think it was only a 3% move in the price. Yeah. Incredible. And actually, looked up the Bifenex hack back in the day, I think that was a 160,000 coins.

嗯。

Mhmm.

即便是那次事件，市场确实有所抛售，但影响有限。另外要考虑的是，有些比特币大户转移代币可能并非为了抛售，而是看到了SAILr策略的机会——通过将代币放入特定工具，首次以合法合规的方式使用杠杆来增加持仓。当然我不想全盘否定这种可能性，毕竟这次情况确实不同。但我仍认为部分大户可能也在获利了结，毕竟他们已习惯了四年周期。

Even that, yeah, the market had a little sell off, but it it didn't do anything substantial. So also, think you have to keep in mind that there may be Bitcoin whales that are moving coins not because they're selling, but because they're seeing the SAILr strategy opportunity of, hey, if I put my coins in a vehicle here, we can now use leverage to increase our stash and for the first time in a kind of a yeah, in a legally legitimate way. So I don't wanna put all my money on that, like, it's totally bad. This time is different. I still think that there is some probably some profit taking among whales as well because they're accustomed to the four year cycle.

我们现在已经突破了历史前高，感觉确实是个不错的套现时机。我很好奇你的看法，毕竟你也深耕比特币领域并接触很多业内人士——你认为这些早期代币为何开始流动？

We're above the previous all time high. Like, it feels like a nice time to to do that. I'm curious what your take is because you're also really deep in the Bitcoin space and talking to people. Like, why do you think these older coins are moving a bit?

是啊，我也搞不懂。这么大宗的比特币以这种方式流入现货市场很奇怪，因为这相当于公开宣告他们在抛售。他们似乎刻意让人看到准备释放筹码，好让市场提前布局。这很反常。

Yeah. I don't know. It seems kinda weird that you're seeing such large blocks kinda come onto the market the way that they're coming onto the market because they're going it appears they're going into the spot markets, which for all intents and purposes means they want you to see that they're selling. They want you to see it kind of getting ready to be released and then wanting you to position yourself for that event. And that's kinda odd.

对吧？如果真想掩盖，完全可以通过场外交易慢慢操作。这种明目张胆的做法令人费解。虽然我还没找到确切答案，但如果分析动机的话，或许他们想向市场释放信号，然后通过某种衍生品在长期布局中加杠杆，比如一年期或两年期的底层资产衍生品。总之这与以往截然不同。

Right? Because if you really wanted to mask this, you would do it as much over the counter and behind the scenes and as slowly as possible if you didn't want the market to know. So I find that quite head scratching. I don't have an answer for it, but if you were gonna pick through the incentives of why somebody would be doing that, I guess they're trying to signal to the market and maybe go into some type of derivative to catch after the move to be more levered in the long term play, call it, you know, one year derivative or a two year derivative on the underlying. So I don't know, but it's very different.

与我们之前见过的牛市模式大相径庭。正如你早前指出的，机构投资者和华尔街如今已全面入场，他们似乎正在施展几十年来的市场操盘手法——如果想获取底层资产，就会搞些花哨操作。

It's very different than what we saw in previous bull runs. And I think so much of it is just to your point that you made earlier, the institutions are here and Wall Street is here in full steam, and they seem to be kinda pulling out a lot of the playbooks that they've used in markets for decades, which is if you wanna acquire the underlying, you do fancy stuff like this, I guess.

说得很有道理。确实我们无法确知真相，虽然区块链分析技术不错，但这些大户的真实意图仍难捉摸。

Yeah. It's good you make good points. Yeah. And it's true that we don't really know. I mean, I do think there's blockchain analysis that's fairly good, but still, you know, we don't really know where these whales are.

所以...假如你是个中国大户，最近有政府人员登门拜访说：'我们希望你有美好未来，但也在收购比特币，不如你高调抛售大量比特币，我们另做安排'之类的呢？

So Yeah. I don't know. Like, what if you're a Chinese whale and you've kinda had some visitors from the government? They're like, hey. You know, we want you to have a good future, but also, you know, we're looking to acquire Bitcoin, so maybe we can work something out where you ostentatively sell a whole bunch of Bitcoin, etcetera.

谁知道呢？可能性太多了。但总体而言，确实需要关注这一点。如果我们看到大额交易，比如两次各20万枚币的转移，那通常是鲸鱼们察觉异动的信号。但我感觉目前还没到那一步。

And who knows? Like, there's so, yeah, there's so many possible scenarios. But I do think in the aggregate, you do gotta pay attention to this. If we're gonna see bigger blocks move, like two moves of, like, 200,000 coins, I think that's often a sign that the whales know something is up. And but I don't feel like we're there yet.

是啊，我同意。有趣的是，现在到处都有人在说'我们到顶了'。

Yeah. Yeah. I agree. And, you know, it's interesting. There's so many people running around saying, well, we're here we are.

我们正接近四年周期中那个该抛币离场的时间点，等一年半后再回来。我在比特币中学到的是：每当你以为找到了简单规律，它总会用新变化打脸。现在我完全不知道该怎么办。

We're coming up on the point in time of the four year cycle that you sell your coins and you go away for a year and a half and then you come back. If there's one thing I've learned in Bitcoin, it's when you make a really simple, like, decision like that or you think you've figured it out, it seems to always figure out a way to prove you wrong and to change and to adjust. And I have no idea what to do right here. Absolutely no idea.

对，这就是我发布报告的原因。2016年底到2017年初，比特币在1500到3000美元创历史新高时，我也犯过同样错误。当时人们有种心理障碍...

Yeah. I think that's why I put out the report because I have that same feeling, and I was wrong back in the day in, I think it was 2016, late twenty sixteen, early twenty seventeen maybe, where we were, like, between 1,500 and $3,000. So it was a new all time high. Yeah. And people had this, like, mental block.

我也是，觉得'这太疯狂了，都是无知者在进场'。记得我还卖了些比特币想着'以防万一'，结果后来涨到2万。

Me too. It was like, you know, I think this is too much, and people who are ignorant are getting in. And I remember even selling selling some Bitcoin just thinking like, oh, you never know. And then we went to 20,000. Yeah.

现在多数看涨预测都集中在20万美元左右（现价两倍），但三星的短期预测最为激进。其他人基本都说'2030年百万美元'这类话。

Yeah. So and and I I feel like there's a lot of, like, bullish predictions of, like, I guess the Samsung is probably the only one who has, like, very bullish prediction and a short term prediction. Whereas most people are like, oh, yeah. A million Bitcoin, but by 2030. Mhmm.

我理解市场狂热，就算预测失误被打脸也无所谓。感觉这个周期可能再延续8到18个月才真正见顶。

And most predictions seem to be hovering around, like, 200,000, which is, yeah, two x from here, but we I don't know. I just don't I don't know. I mean, I get the blow off. I'm happy to have egg on my face, you know, when when it happens and and be exposed or whatever that I was way too bullish. I do feel like we could tack on another eighteen months possibly to this cycle, maybe eight to eighteen months or something like that and have a real blow up.

因为资金现在都集中在比特币。虽然有些老币种又在冒头，但人们不像前几轮周期那么无知了——都知道比特币才是主角。想冒险的人自然有去处。

Because also, the capital is now concentrated in Bitcoin. Like, yeah, there is an old coin. We're seeing that bubble up again, these coins, in my opinion, but I don't feel like it's people are so ignorant they were in previous cycles. They know Bitcoin is the game in town. And also, if if have appetite for risk, go at it.

比特币领域里，任何风险偏好都能被满足。根本不必参与那些拉盘砸盘的把戏。

Right? In the Bitcoin space, any kind of risk, you just is there for you. You name it, you can buy it. So you don't have to go to these pump and dumps.

确实。相比前几轮周期，现在我完全看不到那种催生大抛售的投机狂热——那时人们赚快钱却不明就里，跟着亲戚买入，翻倍就抛，最终导致崩盘。

Yeah. Yeah. It just doesn't there's no speculative mania that I'm seeing whatsoever compared to previous cycles that give you that big giant sell off is because people made a bunch of fast money. They don't really realize why they made it. They just followed their cousin who told them about it, and then they bought in and it ripped a 100% and then they sold and, you know, that's the collapse of it all.

确实。我只是现在还没看到那种情况，但我们会看到的。听众们能感受到我们的谨慎态度。你们能从我们的语气中听出，经历过这么多事情后，我们俩都变得非常谨慎。

True. I just don't I'm not seeing that right now, but we'll see. You can see how timid for people listening. You can you can hear how timid we both are having been through and seeing a lot of

在这个领域里，你绝不能简单复制上一个周期的做法。从来都不行。

things in this space. You just can't copy paste the previous cycle. You never can.

绝对不行。绝对不行。

You definitely can't. You definitely can't.

让我们稍事休息，听听今天赞助商的消息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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好的，回到节目。

Alright. Back to the show.

你在报告中提到政府托管没收的风险。当我分析政府动机时——支出日益增加、越来越依赖货币贬值，再结合社会结构观察：大批民众根本只把政府当作印钞机，想着‘哦，你要印钱直接发给我？太好了’。

Hey. You bring up in your report this risk of custodial confiscation by governments. And this is a risk that I'm looking at the incentives of the government, more and more spending, more and more reliance on debasement of the currency. I look at the social construct of society, and there's a huge population that literally just look at the government like, oh, you're gonna print some money and just mail it to me? Yeah.

他们只想要即时救济，完全不考虑长期后果。而那些代表这类群体的政客，我看不出他们会采取紧缩政策或类似措施。

That's what I want you to do without the thought of the long term consequence. They don't care about the long term. They just need relief now. Yeah. And so the politicians that are representing a lot of this population that need the relief now, I don't see them looking at any of this as if they're gonna reign in and perform austerity or anything like that.

在这样的背景下，世界可能转向新型货币形式，而大量所谓‘新货币’正集中在机构手中。请详细分析你认为事态可能如何发展？这是高风险吗？你对此的概率评估是怎样的？

So with that being the setup, and then you're looking at the world potentially moving to this new form of money, and you look at the consolidation of the coins into the hands of institutions that are costing very large swaths of this quote, unquote new money. Walk us through how you think some of this could potentially unfold. Is it a high risk? What are the probabilities that you're kinda putting on some of this? Walk us through it.

没错。人们过去认为这种风险很抽象、很遥远，部分原因是低估了政府在编织公众叙事方面的狡猾程度。大家想象的没收场景是政府强行闯入库币交易所，瞬间夺走80%比特币转入自己账户——‘我们有枪，你们没有’，而民众会说‘这可是美国，绝不可能’。

Yeah. I mean, I think part of why this risk was considered to be so abstract and, you know, far far away is that most people had a bit of I guess they would underestimate the craftiness of government in terms of, you know, coming up with a narrative that they can sell to the public because the image was, oh, yeah, confiscationing means the government barges in and it just kind of yanks 80% of the coins out of Coinbase, puts it on their own account, and there we go. What are you gonna do? We have the guns, you don't. And then people will be like, no, this is America, that would never happen.

但看看特朗普的关税手段：他本想推行欧洲式的增值税，但无法通过立法。于是改称‘关税’，效果却几乎相同——大量新税收实际由美国消费者承担。国际生产商因利润微薄很难降价转嫁成本。

But to look at what Trump did with the tariffs, he wanted to increase taxes, He wanted some kind of VAT system like they have in Europe, but he couldn't sell that. He couldn't push it through the legislature probably. But so what he did was call it tariffs, but it's almost like the net same effect. He has a whole bunch of new tax revenues that are by and large paid by it looks like it's gonna be American consumers that are gonna pay for that. It doesn't really seem like I could be wrong, but it doesn't really seem like international producers are lowering their prices because I think oftentimes they just have very thin margins themselves, they just can't.

上周更离谱：‘对了，英特尔在疫情期间拿了大量救助金，所以我们要收回10%’。半年前觉得绝不可能的事，现在已成常态。

Yeah. So, yeah, so just to see how they pull that off and sold it, you know, it's it's just the reality now. It's been something that people would think was impossible six months ago and now we're just living it. And then just last week, it was like, oh, yeah. And by the way, Intel got a lot of bailouts or a lot of stimulus money during COVID, so we're gonna take 10%.

起初，特朗普似乎表示，我们为此花了大价钱，这是一笔很棒的投资。而现在他却在推特上说，这不是很神奇吗？我们免费得到了它，直接拿走了。

And initially, Trump seemed to say like, oh, we paid good money for it. It's a great investment. And now he's tweeting like, isn't it amazing? We got it for free. We just took it.

我认为市场对英特尔股票的追捧有点不切实际，仿佛这对英特尔是天大的好消息，尽管投资者股权被稀释，且英特尔或其他公司未来面临更多类似风险。我觉得这只是人们思维中的短期短路现象。但现实就是如此。所以当你思考比特币没收会如何发生时，我认为可能类似——政府突然行动，这些公司都是上市公司，他们可以直接持股并声称是在建立主权财富基金。然后政府可能想利用这些资产作为抵押借款，因为政府本质上并不那么在乎现金，他们不一定想无债一身轻，只要能偿还债务就行，也就是发行更多债务。

And I think the the market is a little delusional to pump in the Intel stock, like, as if this is great news for Intel that investors are diluted and that there's a risk of even more of that happening to Intel or other companies in the near future. I think that's just a short term kind of short circuit in people's minds. But so, yeah, I I think that's the reality. And so when you think about how Bitcoin confiscation would happen, I think it could be similar where all of a sudden the government moves, all these companies are going to be publicly traded so they can just kind of take stock in them and say it's a sovereign wealth fund they're building. And then what probably you want to do as a government is to try and use those assets as collateral to then borrow against it, because ultimately a government doesn't really care so much about cash, like they don't really they don't want to be debt free necessarily, they just want to be able to service their debt, which means just issue more of it.

如果你在国际债券市场上逐渐丧失信誉（显然已是如此），在我看来全球债券市场正处于强劲的熊市，经通胀调整后更是如此。所以必须另辟蹊径。而且地方政府也可能开始搞这类把戏，几乎没什么能阻止他们。

If you're losing credibility internationally in the way that you've always done it with the bond markets, which clearly is the case, bond markets are in my opinion, are strong in a strong bear market, corrected for inflation worldwide. So you gotta come up with other ways to do it. And I think also we have to keep in mind local governments can also start, you know Oh, yeah. Coming up with schemes like this. There's no limit almost.

比特币的优势当然是高度可审计且可灵活转移。所以你仍有时间适应这个新现实，但作为比特币投资者，必须将这一新增风险因素纳入考量。我昨天刚在播客中对康纳说过：比特币的风险分布并不均匀，没收风险也是如此。我不认为会出现全面禁止比特币的情况，在特朗普政府这些官员普遍看涨的背景下，这似乎不可能。

The advantage of Bitcoin, of course, is that it's highly auditable and you can move things around. So there is still time to kind of position yourself for this new reality, but I think you have to just it's just another risk factor that you have to now really add to the list if you're a Bitcoin investor. Because I said this to Conor in a podcast just yesterday that as well that, of course, we all know the risk in Bitcoin is not spread homogeneously, but I think it'll be the same for confiscation. There's not gonna be a, I don't think, a blank blank out ban of Bitcoin. I think that seems impossible with the Trump administration given how bullish the all these people are in the administration.

但我确实认为某些投资工具可能面临更高风险。

But I do think certain vehicles could just have more risk than others.

你用英特尔举例说明政府如何悄无声息地稀释现有股东权益，再通过主权财富基金抵押股票借款，这很有趣。大多数股东、公众或报道者——我猜普通美国人甚至不会理解发生了什么，更别说感到愤怒了。

It's interesting that you kind of use the intel as an example of how government could just dilute existing shareholders in a stealthy kind of way, then borrow against the shares through a sovereign wealth fund. And most shareholders or the public or people covering it, I mean, I would think that your typical American wouldn't even really understand, like, what took place to be outraged or upset about with respect to something

他们会说：现在我们成合作伙伴了，美国政府、美国人民和英特尔是伙伴关系。但如果玻利维亚政府这么做，我们就会说这是没收，是产业国有化，大家都心知肚明。

like The story is we're partners now. Like, you know, US government and the American people and intel, we're partners now. Yeah. Whereas if somebody in Bolivia, if a Bolivian government had done that, we would be like, yeah, this is confiscation. This is nationalization of the industry, and and we all know.

有研究显示，当政府持有石油公司50%或多数股权时，其产量平均下降约50%，基本上就是...

There's examples. There are studies of, like, oil companies. When the government owns 50% of an oil company or a majority share, their production goes down by about 50% on average. Like, that they they just basically

比如俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司这样的例子？

like Gazprom as as, like, an example or who you

例子很多，委内瑞拉也是。

There's several examples. You have Venezuela as well.

你只是

You just

可以将其与纯粹的私营石油公司做个类比。当然，由于它们的董事会由市场人士组成，没有官僚成员。我们在比利时也看到了类似情况。比如，政府将什么国有化了来着？电信公司、邮政公司，甚至还有个有趣的例子——比利时中央银行持有大量黄金，而政府作为合作伙伴加入了董事会。

kind of compare it to pure private play oil companies. And, of course, because they have a board with market people, they don't have bureaucrats on the board. We saw it in Belgium too. Like, the government nationalized what was it again? The telecom company and the postal company and even the national that's a funny example actually, the central bank of Belgium had lots of gold and the government came on board as a partner.

所以直到今天，你仍可以购买比利时国家银行的股票，对黄金拥有索取权。但这些股票的交易价格远低于资产净值。是的，远低于资产净值，因为人们不会天真地以为自己真能提取那些黄金。要知道，这种情况...

And so now, even to this day, you can buy shares in the Belgian national bank and have a claim to all the gold, but the shares are trading at way below NAV. Yeah. Way below NAV because people don't fool themselves to think that they could actually pull that gold out. You know, this is such

这个观点非常尖锐，因为我在不同会议演讲时也讨论过类似话题。但我总是泛泛而谈政府最终会发现自己破产，需要真金白银来支付开支。而眼前这个案例就像个蜜罐陷阱，分析到这里基本就结束了，我从未深入探讨他们具体会如何操作。你描述的这种做法简直荒谬至极，太糟糕了。

a salient point because this is something that I've talked about on stage at different conferences and whatnot, but I've always left it very generic as to the government's gonna eventually figure out that they're broke and they're gonna need real money to pay for things. And I'm looking at this over here, and this is a honeypot. And then it's pretty much end of analysis, and I don't really get into the mechanics of how they might actually try to pull it off. And what you're describing here just makes so much doesn't make sense. It's terrible.

但如果你试图预测他们下一步行动，这似乎是个非常可行的路径，因为它能掩盖和隐藏正在发生的真实情况。

But from how if you're trying to predict or project what they would do next, this seems like a very viable path because it just kind of masks and hides the reality of what's actually taking place.

确实。对我来说这也是新发现。虽然我确实写过关于没收风险的文章...

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's also new for me. Like, I was like Yeah. I did write about the risk of confiscation.

只是当时并不清楚具体会如何发生。总的来说，我们总需要观察政府行为并推演趋势——如果他们持续将某种模式应用到不同行业呢？如果政府债务仅占GDP的10%，我不会说这些，但现在是6.5%的赤字啊。

I just didn't really know how it would happen. And I think in general, yeah, you always wanna look at what is the government doing and then what if we extrapolate it? What is it they just keep doing it. They apply it to different industries. And I wouldn't be saying this if the government had a 10% debt to GDP, but, you know, it's six and a half percent deficit.

每年利息支出就超过一万亿美元？仅仅是利息。简直疯狂。

It's a trillion what is it? Over a trillion dollars a year now that they have to pay in interest? Just interest. Yeah. It's bonkers.

真的，比大萧条时期还要糟糕。

Yeah. It's worse than the Great Depression, literally.

年初的政策转向呢？新政府上任时，埃隆还说要通过狗狗币之类的让政府高效运转，当时他们似乎真认为能实施紧缩政策，控制局面拯救经济。但到了五月份左右，他们直接来了个180度大转弯，仿佛在说：'好吧，这艘船要沉了'，然后就开始全力推行那些'天才'举措。

How about the pivot from the start of the year? So when the administration came in and Elon was going to make the government efficient efficient with with Doge Doge and and all all this this stuff, right, it seemed like it seemed like they actually were thinking that they might be able to implement austerity measures and get the get the whole ship under control and save it. And then it was, what, May time frame that it seemed like they did literally a one eighty hard pivot and was like, okay. Like, this whole thing's going to hell in a handbasket. And then they really leaned into the genius act and, like, all this.

我知道他们从年初就开始着手处理这些事情，但当埃隆和贝塞特闹翻后，他们似乎就把这些都抛诸脑后了，整个局势来了个180度大转弯。你对这些有什么看法？

And I know that they were kinda working on some of that stuff since the start of the year, but it was like they just kinda forgot about all when Elon and Bessett had their blow up, and it just like the whole thing just spun one eighty. Like, what are your thoughts on some of that?

嗯，我同意这个分析。此外，我试着站在管理层的角度思考，好吧，从他们的立场看这是什么情况？是的。可能他们低估了一点，这几乎像是一场隐秘的内战正在上演。美国内部的纷争实在太多了。

Well, I mean, I agree with that analysis. Additionally, I do try to put myself in the shoes of the administration and be like, okay, what is this like from their point of view? Yeah. And maybe one of the things they underestimated is just how much of a it's almost like a covert civil war that's happening. Like, there's just so much strife internally in The US.

在国际舞台上，到处都有战争的威胁。我认为对这些试图掌舵的人来说，这种感觉非常紧迫，首先，是的，不能让船沉没，尽量保持航向，避免被前朝更偏向自由派的精英们推翻，让他们卷土重来接管一切。所以从这点看，这或许是个现实检验。我也觉得，斯科特·贝森德的信心似乎不如从前了，那种‘我们一定能搞定’的气势。

There's, you know, on the international stage, there's the threat of war everywhere. And I think that's like, that feels very imminent to these people who are trying to run the ship and trying to, first of all, yeah, not sink, trying to keep it on course more or less, trying to not get overthrown by the previous and more like liberal elites, like for them to come back and just take it over. So I think that is maybe in that sense a reality check. I also feel like, yeah, Scott Bessend, it feels a bit like his confidence is is just less than what it was. Like, that, oh, we're gonna pull this off.

一切都会好起来的。狗狗币，那个500万美元的，叫什么来着，金票计划，我们要卖给国内百万富翁。所有这些收入来源，我认为关税的故事进展得相当不错，比人们预期的要好。

It's gonna be great. Doge, the $5,000,000, what is it called, golden tickets that we're gonna sell to get to a million people million wealthy people in the country. All those revenue sources, I do think the story of the tariffs is kind of going pretty well. It's going better than what people expected.

是的，我同意这一点。

Yeah. I would agree with that.

但这还不够。那么你打算怎么办？我认为对于比特币持有者来说，重要的是要记住这是一个与比特币价格无关的故事。即使政府变得激进，这不是世界政府，而是美国政府。

But it it's not enough. Yeah. So what are you gonna do? And I think for Bitcoin savers, it's important to probably keep in mind that this is kind of a story separate from the Bitcoin price. It doesn't mean if the government gets aggressive, it's not a world government, it's the US government.

美国有3亿人口。是的，美国之外有那么多钱。罗斯福没收黄金时你也看到了，之后12个月里黄金的实际价格上涨了50%。

300,000,000 people live in The US. There's Yeah. So many there's so much money outside The US. And you saw it with Roosevelt as well when he confiscated gold, the literal gold price went up 50% in the twelve months following. Yeah.

这虽然反直觉，但比特币也可能遭遇同样的情况，我们会迎来一场评级牛市，这将是最大的认可。他们在追逐什么资产？这是世界舞台上最有价值的资产。所以这是对比特币作为资产类别的巨大认可。

So that's counterintuitive, but it can totally happen to Bitcoin too where we have a rating bull market in which it's the biggest possible endorsement. Like, what is the asset that they're after? It's the most valuable asset on the world stage. So it's a huge endorsement of Bitcoin, the asset class.

是啊。年初这一切刚浮出水面时，我在2025年1月左右做过一个视频，我说他们试图做的事根本不可能实现，因为如果他们减少单位扩张，就必须找到替代品。整个事情本质上就是个庞氏骗局。如果你从中抽走单位，债务工具将遭受巨大减值，市场将无法承受。

Yeah. Yeah. I at the beginning of the year when all this was coming out, I made a video back in it was, like, probably January 2025, and I said, this is literally impossible what they're trying to do simply because if they are, like, reducing the expansion of the units, they have to replace them. They have to put the whole thing is literally a Ponzi scheme. And if you're removing units out of that, you're gonna get so much impairment across debt instruments that the market's not gonna be able to handle it.

系统中将没有足够的货币来满足需求和商业流动。他们似乎已经意识到了这点，你在报告中提到M2以及比特币如何跟踪M2增长率时也写了这个。我当时讨论这个时，只是看着M2数据，心想，嘿，他们在全球范围内积极收缩M2，现在已经到了过去20年我们观察到的趋势线必须持续上升的极限位置。所以，我就是看不到这事能成。

There's just not gonna be enough money or currency in the system to service the demands and the flow of commerce. And it seems like they've figured that out, and it seems like and you you write about this in your report with the m two and how Bitcoin tracks the m two growth rate. And back when I was talking about this, I was just looking at the m two, I'm like, hey. They've aggressively contracted on a global scale the m two, and they're kind of at the limits of where everywhere we've looked in the past twenty years where the trend line has to keep going up into the right was where we're at right now. So, like, I just don't see it happening.

请和我们谈谈这个M2增长的概念，以及你想展开讨论的其他相关想法。我的问题是，这真的是一场庞氏骗局吗？法币体系是否就是一个彻头彻尾的庞氏骗局，必须不断扩张否则整个系统就会崩溃？

Talk to us about this this idea of m two growth and anything else that you wanna kind of unpack with some of those ideas. And I guess my question to you in all of that is, is it really a Ponzi? Is the fiat system just a total Ponzi scheme and they have to keep expanding it or else things start melting down?

是的，在我看来确实如此。我很尊重你们这些深入研究细节的人，比如理解货币运作机制。2002/1967年那次顿悟让我开始寻找真正的稀缺替代品，因为债务规模早已超出偿还能力。唯一的延续方式就是不断扩张债务直到撞上通胀这堵墙。

Yeah. It is in my opinion. And, you know, I really respect you and other people who go into the nitty gritty of, like, you know, Linaudine and, like, really understanding how it functions. But that was that realization back in 02/1967 for me was was the start of trying to find an alternative place to go and finding real scarcity really because, yeah, it does there's just more debt than can ever be serviced. So the only way to to keep doing it is to extend them to debt until you hit a wall and that's for inflation.

随后债务自然会被洗劫一空，社会结构将经历巨大重组。就像魏玛德国的故事，某些有关系的人通过大举借贷购置不动产逃脱危机，但普罗大众却陷入赤贫。这催生新的社会问题——民怨沸腾、革命风险，政府不得不寻找新财源维持国家机器运转。或许庞氏骗局已破产，但必须设法延续否则就会爆发内战国家分崩离析。

And then, of course, the debt gets washed out, and you get a huge restructuring of society. Certain people, there's all these stories, of course, of people borrowing huge amounts of money in Weimar, Germany and getting away with it, like just buying real acid just because they had connection, they made the right decision at the right time, but then at the same time, you get the mass of the populace who just gets impoverished, and that's a new problem. It means they get angry, they have very little to lose, you can get revolutions, those kind of things, and then the government has to try and find a way to keep finding revenue sources just to try and keep the machine running, at least from a a governance point of view. Maybe the Ponzi scheme is is broke. But, yeah, you gotta find a way to to keep it going somehow or you just you have a literal civil war and the country falls apart, something like that.

这个局面极其复杂，变量太多了。国际紧张局势升级速度令我震惊，我认为这是因为庞氏骗局终结时人们突然意识到自身的脆弱。就连过去被视为弱小的势力——比如某些帮派——都能趁虚而入。俄罗斯恶性通胀时期，莫斯科连基本税收都难以征收。

So it's it's very hard to and there's so many moving pieces. Right? There's just so many moving I'm also surprised to see how fast the international tensions are ramping up and I think it is because once the Ponzi scheme comes to an end, all of a sudden you realise how weak you are. It means that even in the past, outsized forces that were considered to be weak like these gangs or whatever, all of a sudden, they can make their way in because they're profiting off of your instability. In when Russia had their hyperinflation, it was so hard for Moscow to get even some revenue.

就是把装满化工废料的集装箱运到莫斯科说'这就是我们的税款'。

Like, you probably know this, but but Yeltsin did, like, organise a commission to figure out, like, why are the tax revenues not arriving in Moscow? What's going on? Like, we can't raise money. And what had happened is that and this is way down the line. I'm not saying this is for tomorrow, but what had happened is that these provinces, technically, they were paying their taxes in kind because, you know, the ruble is worthless, but it was so hard to oversee all that that literally, like, for example, the province of Samara in Russia was paying taxes, quote unquote, and what it was is they had filled a container with toxic waste and just literal toxic waste, like chemical waste, and send it to Moscow and be like, this is our payment, you know, deal with it.

又比如地方建筑公司被要求以承建地铁系统抵充税款。这种以工抵税的模式完全取代了货币税收体系。

Or like, you'd have the local construction company and they would have to pay taxes and then the city would be like, you know what? How about you guys build us a metro system? You know, just do that and that we'll consider that to be your tax.

确实如此。

So Yeah.

这虽非世界末日，但确是艰难时期。货币作为经济血液一旦枯竭——你我共识是已出现贫血症状——经济协作机制就会瘫痪。如今我们可能正见证首次全球规模的法币危机。

It's just it's not the end of the world, but it is, like, it is a difficult environment. Once the the money is the blood of the economy, of course, you and I agree, there's anemia, there's all these problems, and so once once that really hits a certain critical point, the coordination becomes so hard in the economy. And now in the world economy, it's probably the first time that we're seeing a fiat crisis on a global scale. Yeah. Yeah.

我不清楚中国具体情况，但人民币很可能面临挑战。欧元区显然有问题，日元基本已经完蛋。最新消息显示法国可能需要IMF救助，英国亦然，危机正在蔓延。

I don't know the details about China either, but, like, they're probably gonna run into issues with the yuan. Europe, obviously, is gonna have issues with the euro. The yen is already toast pretty much. So now I'm seeing news that it looks like France is gonna need an IMF bailout, The UK the same, like, that is It's moving out.

这是加速崩溃啊。来谈谈黄金吧。

That's acceleration. Yeah. Yeah. It really is. Talk to us about gold.

多年来你对黄金话题涉猎颇深。比特币兑黄金汇率至今仍未突破历史新高，我认为这是个有趣的讨论点。你如何看待未来五年比特币与黄金的关系，以及在国际舞台上随着机构对比特币的接纳，它们将如何被对待？

You've covered gold quite a bit through the years. Bitcoin is still not breaking out to a new all time high against gold, which I think is an interesting discussion point. How do you kinda see the coming five years with Bitcoin and gold and how it's kinda treated on the international stage with all this institutional adoption happening now on Bitcoin?

确实。这算是我个人的一个小执念，或许回首时会觉得是某种奇妙的巧合。但当我观察以黄金计价的比特币图表时，总能发现这些心理阻力位——比如1克黄金、1盎司黄金、100克黄金，而现在则是1公斤黄金。我们在2020年触及这个点位，五年后的今天仍停留在1公斤黄金的水平。但我确信终将突破，毕竟比特币比黄金更具可验证的稀缺性。

Yeah. This is a little pet peeve of mine, and maybe looking back, it'll be some kind of bizarre coincidence. But when I look at the Bitcoin chart expressed in gold, I see these psychological points of resistance, you know, one gram of gold, one ounce of gold, 100 grams of gold, and now one kilo or a thousand grams of gold. We hit that point in 2020, and now five years later, we're still at a kilo of gold. And so I do think we're gonna break above that just because Bitcoin is more provably scarce than gold.

受限资产能实现的功能更多。它更具可审计性，这些优势我们都清楚。所以当比特币突破黄金计价时确实意义重大。我认为下一个明显目标是10-11公斤黄金，因为10可能是个心理关口，或者换算400盎司工业金条大约就是这个重量。

There's a lot more you can do with constrained. It's more auditable, all that stuff that we all know. And so, yeah, I do think it'll be very meaningful once Bitcoin breaks up in terms of gold. I think the next obvious target is ten, eleven kilograms of gold because, you know, 10 is maybe a psychological target or maybe, like, how many kilos is 400 ounces? Because I think that's like a good delivery industrial bar.

大概就在12公斤左右。有人估算11公斤黄金时，比特币市值将与黄金相当。若达到这个点位，两者市值将持平，这将成为重要的心理阻力位——人们会认为难以继续突破。

That's also somewhere around that. Maybe that's 12 kilos. And then people estimate that 11 kilos of gold is pretty much parity for Bitcoin in terms of market cap. So if we get 11 kilos, then the gold market cap and Bitcoin market cap are gonna be the same. So that would be an excellent next point of resistance where people just they don't think it'll go above that.

长远来看我认为会突破，但未来24个月内这个目标就很有意思。观察这些图表至关重要，毕竟以美元计价的长周期图表已失去分析价值——由于货币贬值，所有曲线都呈现抛物线形态。

Maybe eventually, of course, I think it will, but for the coming cycle that's or for the coming twenty four months even, that might be an interesting target. So, yeah, I think it's very important to look at those graphs because, I mean, I don't know if you're into technical analysis, but it's just it's become impossible to look at long dated charts expressed in dollars. I can't see rhyme or reason in them. They're all just going parabolic because the denominator is is being destroyed.

关于黄金阵营，你觉得是黄金投资者还是比特币持有者更关注这个汇率图表？

On the gold front, I mean, it's do you or I guess this is the question. Do gold bugs look at that chart, or is this Bitcoiners that pretty much look at that chart?

我认为他们不得不关注。就像我说的，1盎司阻力位曾持续三年之久，这不是小事。记得2014年人们热议1盎司黄金兑1比特币的意义，那些资深的黄金投资者——特别是行业领袖们肯定在关注。

I think somehow they have to, you know, because it just it's been such a like I said, that one ounce resistance, that was also a three year resistance. That was not, you know, not a small potato type thing. That was a big deal. I remember, yeah, in 2014, people were really talking about coin at one ounce of gold, and this is important and meaningful. And I do think gold bugs, at least the informed ones, probably the movers and the shakers.

黄金界的传统就是用黄金衡量各类资产，分析阻力位支撑位。我敢说专业黄金投资者绝对在以黄金视角观察比特币，虽然散户可能未必。

You know? They why wouldn't you? Why would because they that that's been a tradition, a long standing tradition in the gold world is to express all kinds of asset classes in terms of gold and to look at resistance and and support and those kind of things. So my bet would be yes, absolutely. Like, maybe not every retail investor, but I think the long term, very dedicated gold investors are looking at Bitcoin in terms of gold.

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好的。我们回到节目。

All right. Back to the show.

我们讨论比特币与加密货币的区别这个话题感觉快十年了。现在既然有民族国家参与和潜在采用——埃里克·特朗普似乎曾在台上透露某国购买了数万美元价值的代币——在你看来，将二者混为一谈对未来比特币的政治接纳会造成多大损害？

So something that you and I have talked about for what feels like almost a decade is this difference between Bitcoin and crypto when it comes And I guess now that we have nation states involved and a potential adoption, Eric Trump was, I guess, on stage saying that there was some nation state out there that bought tens of thousands worth of coins. How damaging in your opinion is the conflation of the two for Bitcoin's political acceptance moving forward?

比特币与这些中心化加密代币被混淆得越严重，就越容易兜售'比特币不过是另一种法币'的幻觉，让人以为它们是一回事，任何人都可能成为无休止拉盘砸盘与稀释的受害者。中心化代币极易受政治行为体影响——毕竟他们掌握着武装力量与情报系统。即便你说'我们有十个成员但分布全球'，情报机构要追踪这些人并提议'合作'也非难事。

Well, I mean, the more they are conflated, Bitcoin and all these centralized crypto coins, the more you can try and sell the illusion that Bitcoin is just another fiat currency and that it's the same thing and that anybody can just be a victim of the endless pump and dump and dilution. Because a centralized coin, it can very easily be influenced by political actors who do have the guns and the intelligence and everything. So even if you're like, oh, but, you know, yes, we're 10 guys, but we're spread around the world. It's like, it's not that hard for an intelligence agency to track those people down and say, hey. Let's partner up.

就像黑帮会敲开店主家门说'让我们保护你'的勒索套路。我认为这些加密代币会继续存在，但希望区分能持续下去。比特币的主导地位现已非常稳固，人们越来越将其视为保守投资——这种评价可不会出现在以太坊、卡尔达诺等其他代币上。

Kinda like how the mafia knocks on your door as a shopkeeper and be like, us protect you. Detection rackets. So I do think these crypto coins are gonna stay in existence. I think, hopefully the separation is gonna continue. I think Bitcoin dominance is just so huge now and I feel that people are seeing Bitcoin increasingly as a conservative investment and they're not saying that about Ether or Cardano or any of the other coins.

那些绝非保守投资。当前时代精神正是全球寻求安全港湾——什么是安全的、永恒的、普世的、去政治化的？比特币完美契合这些特质。有趣的是，如今比特币内部也开始出现争论：最新升级是否真的保守？我们该这样做吗？

Those are not conservative investments. So I just feel like that fits in the zeitgeist where the whole world is looking for safety, like what is safe, what is permanent, what is universal, what is apolitical And Bitcoin fits that to a tee. Of course, now interestingly within Bitcoin, we're starting to have that debate of like, hey, like, are these latest upgrades? Is that actually conservative? Should we be doing that?

但我认为这正是时代特征的体现——那种投机狂热式的时代精神与新兴保守主义反文化潮流的对比。

So but I think that's just the sign of the times that that kind of the speculative mania type zeitgeist versus the newer counterculture of conservatism.

没错。当前华尔街机构的表现让我感到沮丧的是，我还没见到或听到这些机构中有人真正深入剖析比特币——尤其是当他们将其与以太坊、Solana等其他项目比较时。他们完全不涉及技术层面，也不解释为何比特币更去中心化或更安全，就像随手一挥说'这是比特币'。

Yeah. One of my frustrations with the institutions in Wall Street showing up right now is I haven't seen or heard anybody from that from those institutions really kinda laying out Bitcoin from especially as they're comparing it to, call it, Ethereum or Solana or any of these other things. They don't get into any of the tech or why it's more decentralized or why it's more secure at all. It's just kinda like a wave of the hand. Here's Bitcoin.

然后说'这些是其他区块链'。他们显然只想着推销产品，只想销售包装这些资产的ETF。或许我们看到的这种现象，是因为他们有更多产品要卖，所以故意避而不谈深层内容。

Here's these other blockchains. We think you and they're clearly incentivized to just sell product. They just wanna sell ETFs that are wrappers on top of all these things. And so maybe the reason we're seeing that is they're incentivized to just kinda, like, not really get into it because they have more to sell. But

确实。但别忘了，华尔街已不再是唯一的选择。他们可能还沉浸在这种幻想中，但看看Tether——他们的利润已超过摩根大通。

Sure. But then again, they're no longer the Wall Street is no longer the only game in town. Like, they might believe that. They might wanna believe that. But, you know, look at Tether, they're making more profit than JPMorgan.

是的。新一代已经崛起，他们根本不需要住在纽约。

Yeah. Yeah. The new generation is here, and they don't need to live in New York City.

嗯。完全不需要。

Mhmm. At all.

没错。如果华尔街继续这条道路，无异于自掘坟墓。就像伦敦曾号称欧洲金融中心，虽然现在某种程度上仍是，但越来越像在演戏——其实早已名存实亡，人们早已对伦敦失去信心。

Yeah. Yeah. And so I think it's like to the extent that they will, you know, that Wall Street will just continue on this road, it'll just be digging its own grave. Yeah. You know, similar to how London was supposedly the financial heart of Europe and everything is happening from there and maybe there is still that to an extent, but it feels increasingly like it's a kind of a pretend thing, like it's already gone, like people have already given up on London.

纽约同样面临这种风险。我认为这某种程度上也是特朗普的软肋——他在那种环境长大，骨子里带着纽约式的交易思维，总想参与所有风口。当然，企业家精神值得钦佩，但花上万小时深入研究某个平台或技术...

So, you know, New York has that risk as well and I think that's a little bit of the Achilles heel that maybe Trump has is that he grew up in that environment. He has that New York DNA of just like deal making and and whatever is moving, like, we wanna be involved in that. And of course, there's a lot to be admired about the entrepreneurial spirit doing the ten thousand hour type study of one particular platform or technology

嗯。

Mhmm.

这通常不是纽约思维的一部分，我应该说。

That's usually not really part of the New York mentality, I I would say.

是的。是的。我的挫败感——我们在节目中也多次讨论过——就是当你观察闪电网络时，会发现比特币一层网络是为去中心化和安全性优化的，而非为扩展性优化，这正是我们所说的‘三难困境’。扩展性被推到了上层的后续层级中。当你进入那些后续层级时，扩展性在二层网络中表现突出，同时仍保留着一层网络的安全性和去中心化特性。

Yeah. Yeah. My frustration, and we talk about this on the show quite a bit, is just, like, when you look at the Lightning Network and you look at if Bitcoin layer one is optimized for decentralization and security and not optimized for scalability, that's and this is the trilemma that we're talking about here. The scalability is pushed off into subsequent layers that are above it. When you do go to those subsequent layers, the scalability is the thing that shines when you get into the layer two, and it still comes with the security and decentralization of layer one.

因此，当我审视所有这些稳定币时——记得一月份Tether曾表示他们将尝试使用闪电实验室的Taproot资产协议在比特币闪电网络上发行Tether——它的速度会更快，费用更低，拥有节点网络的去中心化特性，而不是由四个人运行所谓的全节点。它将有数万个节点运行，带来相应的可靠性和其他优势。所以我认为长期来看，激励机制更优的方案没理由会失败。

And so when I'm looking at all these stablecoins, and we had Tether back in January say that they were gonna try to use, I I believe, the Taproot asset protocol from Lightning Labs to issue Tether on Bitcoin Lightning, it's gonna move faster. It's going to have lower fees. It's going to have the decentralization of the node network and not four people running a quote unquote full node. It's gonna have tens of thousands of nodes that are running and having the reliability and and all of that that comes with it. And so I'm looking at it, and I'm saying long term, it just doesn't make sense to me that something that has better incentives would lose.

我猜你同意这点，但你是否认为我们只是太心急？是否只需要给现实世界资产在闪电网络上代币化更多时间——这个无需原生代币的用例本就比以太坊、Solana、波场等更具优势？

I'm assuming you agree with that, but do you and are we just impatient? Do we just need to give this more time for real world assets being tokenized on top of Lightning being a better use case with no native token unlike Ethereum, Solana, Tron, you name it.

嗯，可能需要经历一个测试阶段。早期人们对闪电网络可能有些过度兴奋，认为每个人都能轻松运行闪电节点并持续运营，这不太现实。就像早年人们以为谁都能在地下室自建邮件服务器一样。所以确实需要先搭建基础设施。闪电网络似乎需要与一个或多个其他协议互操作，才能真正成为性能巨头。

Well, there's probably a bit of you know, there's a test phase that kind of needs to happen, and I think there was a little bit of overexcitement maybe early on about Lightning. I think it was not realistic to think that everybody would just run a Lightning node and do it well enough to keep doing it. Similar to maybe early on, people thought anyone is just gonna run a an email server, their own email server in their basement. So, yeah, you need to kind of build that infrastructure. It does seem maybe that Lightning needs to be interoperable with one or more other protocols to really become like that performance juggernaut.

嗯。而且做好这些也需要时间。需要有专业知识和风险承受能力的人投资相关公司来实现。我记得闪电网络白皮书大概是2016年发布的，所以九年发展并不令人意外。

Mhmm. And that also takes time to do it well. We need people that that have the knowledge and the risk appetite to invest in those companies and make it happen. So I'm not surprised it's been I think 2016 was the lightning paper maybe. So I'm not surprised it's been nine years.

另外，比特币真正的核心是储值属性——这才是所有发展的根基。而枝叶部分更像是零售场景和高速交易。但考虑到中产阶级正在消失，年轻一代可能越来越无法忍受‘支付20美元电汇费，等四天到账’的传统方式，他们或许会直接成为比特币原生用户，不过这需要代际更替。

Also, because the real trunk of Bitcoin is that store of value property, like that is the real kind of the root, the strong foundation of it all. And then the branches and the leaves, like that's more retail, that's more of that high speed stuff. But I do think, you know, especially now that we're seeing the middle class is kind of disappearing, something that used to be very easy like, oh, pay $20 for a wire transfer, you know, wait for four days for the money to arrive. Maybe younger people especially are not going to be willing to endure that anymore or just not be able to afford it anymore. So, you know, maybe those people will just kind of become Bitcoin natives increasingly, but that's then also a generational thing.

这同样需要时间。婴儿潮一代不会自己运行节点，但他们目前仍掌握经济中的大部分财富。我常说，明年他们就将步入62-80岁年龄段，未来五到十年会陆续进行资产清算、赠予——有时是为维持生计，有时是家族规划。如果房地产持续低迷，这个过程会加速。

So that that takes some time as well. Like, boomers are not gonna run their own nodes, but they still have the majority of the money in the economy for now. I keep saying it, but their next year, boomers are gonna be between age 62 and 80 years old. So it's really kind of getting to that point where they're gonna be liquidating, they're gonna be gifting, you know, sometimes just to stay afloat, sometimes just to kind of do family planning. That's coming in the next five to ten years, especially if the pain in the real estate keeps increasing.

说到困境，你认为未来五到十年哪些机构或行业会受到最大冲击？

Yeah. Speaking of pain, what institutions or industries do you think will be most disrupted coming in the next five years, ten years?

比特币领域内还是...

Within Bitcoin or

比特币领域内，再加上AI的结合——未来五年我们将面临怎样的颠覆性变革？

Within Bitcoin and also, I think when you combine that with AI, like, what are we in for coming here in the next five years as far as disruption goes?

嗯，我认为从最高层面来看，确实，我确实觉得机器人技术将会非常庞大。就像，你正在目睹它们能做到什么。真的，它们可以进入人类环境并接管一切。比如我过去在工厂做学生工时的工作，你知道，完全可以用机器替代。但与此同时，它们可能更容易受到供应链中断的影响，这类事情，比如你需要维护机器人，需要获取所有零件，如果发生贸易战导致延误怎么办？

Well, I think from the highest possible level, I think, yes, I do think robotics is gonna be huge. Like, you're just seeing what they can do. Like, really, they can get into human environments and just take over. Like, the work that I used to do as a job student in a factory, like, you know, you can just put a machine there. But at the same time, you know, they are maybe more vulnerable to supply chain disruption, those kind of things, like you have to maintain the robots, you have to get all the parts, and then what if there's trade wars happening where you you know, there's delays?

就像如果你想在拉丁美洲做生意，过去五十年里你一直面临这些问题。所以我认为重要的是不要过于乐观，别戴着玫瑰色眼镜想‘机器人会解决一切’，特别是你看看美国。这里不再生产的东西太多了，我们可能会失去获取渠道。所以我不认为蓝领工作的繁荣会很快被AI或机器人阻止。未来十年，我们只会看到越来越多人进入焊接这类生产性工作，甚至某种程度上回归农业。

Like, if you wanted to do business in Latin America, you you were facing all those problems even in the past fifty years. So I think it's important to not be too rose you know, put your rose colored glasses on too much of like, oh, robotics is gonna solve it all, especially if, you know, you look at The US. There's there's so much stuff that is not being produced here anymore, and maybe we'll we'll lose access. So I don't think the boom in blue collar jobs is gonna be stopped by AI or robotics anytime soon. Like, definitely the next ten years, I think we're just gonna see more and more people get into welding, get into all these kind of productive production type jobs, maybe go back to agriculture to an extent.

也因为经济机器的核心将更聚焦于此，人们将负担不起游轮或Netflix这类消费。这是在勒紧裤腰带。这是宏观层面的想法。抱歉，刚才问题是什么来着？

Also because the core of the economic machine is just gonna be focused on that more, like people just won't be able to afford so much, a cruise ship or a Netflix or those kind of things. It's tightening the belt. That's kind of the macro idea. And then sorry. What was the question?

哦对，关于新趋势。我确实认为采矿和AI是天作之合。这些数据中心只要靠近廉价能源，就能在两者间灵活切换。

Oh, yeah. The new what new things are coming up. Yeah. I do think mining and AI is a marriage made in heaven. Like, these data centers, like, they can just switch from one to the other if they're close to a cheap energy source.

如果周边政治环境相对稳定，它们就能真正蓬勃发展。我们甚至可能看到围绕这些兴起的新城镇。我认为这将非常重大，全球会出现新的金融中心，虽然还不确定具体位置。

If they have political stability on a relatively around them, they can really flourish. And we can even see new towns, new cities be built around that. I think that's gonna be huge. I think there will be new financial centers around the world. I'm not really sure where yet.

这有点观望性质。我在想——可能听起来有点戏剧化——但罗马灭亡时，富人们需要去处。于是拉文纳城崛起了，它位于威尼斯附近，但一侧靠海一侧靠山，还有波河保护。

It's a little bit kinda wait and see. I was looking into maybe this sounds a bit overly dramatic, but when Rome fell, wealthy people, it leads, they had to go somewhere. And so there was a a flourishing of this city called Ravenna. And like, it was kind of in the area of Venice, but it was protected by the coast on the one hand, and on the other hand, the mountains, and then also the river. I think it was the Po River.

他们就在沼泽里建了这座城。这很不直观，不是显而易见的方案，但逐渐成为应对大都市问题的答案。美国地域广阔，谁知道呢？也许是阿巴拉契亚山脉？不一定人人都要住农场。

So they kind of built this city in a swamp. So very kind of unintuitive, like, oh, you know, it wasn't the obvious answer, but it just kind of gradually became the answer to these bigger centres. And so who knows what I think in The US, there's a lot of room, so who knows? Maybe it's the Appalachian Mountains or maybe I don't know. Like, you know, and it doesn't mean that everyone's gonna live on a farm or something.

我们完全可能在意外之地兴起繁荣城市。所以我对此持开放态度，这也是我关注阿根廷的原因。如果他们能保持稳定，这里可能最终汇聚大量资本。人们某种程度上也一直押注萨尔瓦多。

Like, we could actually have cities that that start to flourish in unexpected places. So I'm just kinda open for that. So that's why I've been trying to follow Argentina as well. Like, that might be an area where where a lot of capital could find its way eventually if they can maintain their stability in some way. I mean, people have been betting on El Salvador to an extent.

嗯...我不确定其可持续性。但这些大都市围绕不同哲学构建的惯性太强，很难简单说‘我们要重振纽约’，那里有太多固有模式了。

Mhmm. I don't know how sustainable that is. But yeah. So and because there's so much inertia with these big centers that are built around a different philosophy that I don't think it it'll be very easy to just say, we're gonna revive New York. You know, we're just gonna pivot New York and it's gonna be, I don't know, there's just so much inertia there that

越简单机会越多。对吧。

has the simpler, the more opportunity there is. Like Right.

因为如果你想涉足比特币领域，你知道的，就像，先投点钱进去，然后让年轻人去发展它，我们之后再加入他们。具体到行业层面，我长期看好保险业。我觉得它契合人们追求稳定的心理，现在大家思想更保守了。如何保护家人？无非是人寿保险、存款保险这类东西。

Because if you wanna be in from if you're a Bitcoiner, you know, like, let's punt some money there and we'll see you know, let the younger people build it out and then we'll kinda join them and yeah, and then specifically, industry wise, I mean, I've long been bullish on the insurance sector. Like, I think it also fits in that people want stability. There is that more conservative mindset nowadays. So how do you protect your family? It's gonna be life insurance, deposit insurance, those kind of things.

听起来很无聊，但如果美元年通胀率达到40%，以美元赔付的保险业模式就难以为继了。所以这个行业亟需革新，而且变革已经开始。我们正处在这个进程的起点。对了，你关注哪些领域？

Very boring sounding, but an insurance sector that's built around paying out claims in dollars might not be sustainable if we're gonna get 40% annual dollar inflation. So I think that's really gonna need reinvention, and it's already happening. You know? We're starting at the beginning of that. But, yeah, I'm curious what areas are you looking at?

不，我完全同意你关于自然资源的观点，尤其是能源领域，这非常重要，因为数据中心、比特币挖矿，以及能源的核心意义。但还需要政策与政府层面的支持，要敞开大门说：欢迎来这里发展。

No. I just your point on if there's natural resources, particularly on the energy domain, that's huge just because of the data centers and the Bitcoin mining and just kinda what energy means at its core. Right? But you also have to have the policy and the government domain that's wrapper on top of that that is wide open saying, yes. Come here.

就像，你能建什么、能争取到什么就是你的。看看那些成熟城市，比如你提到的纽约。我研究过它们的政策流程，认为未来一二十年会很难竞争，因为它们难以适应快速变化的环境，也不知道该制定什么激励措施来吸引未来企业。所以我认为，只要有充足能源和开放政策的地方——那种'欢迎来大展拳脚'的政策——就一定会成功。

Like, it's whatever you can build and whatever you can capture and kill, it's yours kinda thing. And when you look at cities that are very established, you mentioned New York. Right? I look at the policy and procedures of some of these cities, and I'm saying they're they are gonna have a very hard time competing, I think, in the coming decade or two just because they're just not gonna be agile to how fast all of this is changing and, like, what incentives they need to be putting in place to attract the future businesses and what they're looking to do. And so I think the simplicity, if it's got a lot of energy and it's got a government with policies that are like, yeah, come on in here and do what you will, I think they're gonna crush it.

我觉得它们会遥遥领先。

I think they're gonna be really, like, far out in front.

新加坡就是个已经验证的成功范例。创业者初到新加坡时，常会惊讶于政府突然登门拜访——不是来榨取价值，而是问'我们能为你做什么？如何帮助你？'

And I think Singapore has been a great example for something that that's already been shown and proven. Yeah. When entrepreneurs would come to Singapore, they would be so surprised that, like, all of a sudden you get a visit from the government and it's not like, you know, how can we extract all the possible value out of you? But it's not like, what can we do for you? How can help you?

他们会问'你需要什么？我们希望你在这里'。新加坡政府甚至会派外交使团出国，我记得早期去纽约拜访凯西·伍德的小办公室时——那时ARK还没成名——

Like, what do you need? We want you here. They would even the Singapore government, they would travel abroad and, like, have these diplomatic missions. I remember early on visiting Kathy Wood in her little New York office. This is, like, before they blew up.

她就因为要接待来访的新加坡主权财富基金而提前结束了我们的会面。

And she had to cut short my meeting because she was meeting the Singapore sovereign wealth fund who was like, you know, coming to visit.

是啊，因为他们主动出击嘛。

Yeah. Yeah. Because they're out there doing outreach. Right?

没错，关键在于这是个年轻的地方。连建国元勋都还在世呢。

Yeah. Because it's a young that's the thing. It's a young place, you know. Like, the founders are still alive. Yeah.

是啊。对吧？

Yeah. Right?

没错。我认为这将意义重大。嘿，在你报告的结尾部分，你将比特币比作和平的力量，并用艺术作品展现技术如何导向秩序与和谐。比特币支持者常宣称比特币能解决一切问题。

Yeah. I think that's gonna be huge. Hey. So at the end of your report, you compare Bitcoin to the power of the piece, and you have this artwork channeling technology towards order and harmony. And Bitcoiners are known for saying Bitcoin solves everything.

但具体到这个案例，你是真心相信比特币能减少全球冲突，还是说这只是种鼓舞人心的期望？

But in this case, do you genuinely believe Bitcoin can reduce global conflict, or is this just inspirational hope?

不，我确实这么认为。真的。我真心相信它能减少全球冲突。

No. I do think so. Yeah. I really do think so. It can reduce global conflict.

这是个极其强大的工具。同时，它将成为我们正目睹的巨大财富再分配的舞台。基本上我们将见证新王的诞生。当然，最终要靠这些新王来实现变革——你不能默认他们就会是贤明之人。

It's an incredibly powerful tool. And, also, it's going to be the stage for this enormous wealth redistribution that we're seeing. So we're basically gonna have new kings that are gonna be made. And then, of course, it's up to those kings to make it happen. Like, you can't just assume they're gonna be great guys.

我们必须保持警惕，因为在某种程度上，决定权不只在自封为王的个体手中，而是取决于足够多的人是否相信他们及其事业。这就是为什么当我回顾维迪克那幅约16世纪末的蚀刻画时，它不仅展示技术转型（比如铸剑为犁），画面中央的巨大熔炉旁，真正的主角是各种美德——坚毅、正义等拟人化的道德品质，这些才是实现变革的关键。

Like, we're gonna have to kind of try and be vigilant and because to an extent, it won't just be the kings who decide, like, I'm the king now. Like, it'll be because there is a critical mass of people who believe in them and their project. And so that's why when I look back at that etch from Vedic's from back in the I think it's like the late fifteen hundreds, they don't just show technology and being like, oh, swords in the plowshares, and then we had this big furnace in the middle. The main characters are the virtues. So you see like fortitude and justice, and they're personifying the moral virtues that are needed to make all that happen.

没错。天空中你能看到和平与正义的化身。所以这必须是场协作努力。我们批评前代人搞砸了，不仅因为他们技术路线错误——

Yeah. You see in the sky, you see peace and justice. And so, it has to be a collaborative effort. We're gonna have to, you know, to the extent that we're critical of previous generations of like, they messed up. It wasn't just because they had the wrong technology.

更因为他们对普世道德价值的懈怠与漠视。正因如此，我认为回归比特币的核心精神，回归密码朋克运动的道德初衷至关重要。浅薄的自由主义可能远远不够——

It was also because there was a laxness. There was an indifference towards universal moral values. And so I think that that's why, you know, trying to go back to the core or the origins of Bitcoin, the cypherpunk, that that was a really moral project. And so I think that's the rabbit hole to keep going into and or the source to keep tapping into. And I think thin libertarianism probably is not enough.

虽然产权制度极其重要，但单靠这个可能不足以真正推动社会复兴。不过它绝对是个绝佳的起点。

Like, just this I think property rights are very important, but it probably won't be enough to really kind of have a real renaissance, like a kind of a a revitalization of society. But it's a fantastic start.

是啊。我特别欣赏你展示的这些艺术作品。你真是个大师，总能从历史长河中挖掘出精彩内容来揭示这种关联性，让人对未来充满希望。

Yeah. I love when you put some of this artwork out there. You are a master at finding awesome stuff from the past to kind of show the correlation and being hopeful for the future.

比起真正的艺术家，还差得远呢。不过确实如此。

Way less of a master than than the actual artist. But yeah.

好的。特儿，我们会附上报告链接。还有其他你想强调的内容吗？我们也会放上你活跃的推特账号链接，或者你的前账号。

Alright. Well, Ter, we're gonna have links to the report. Anything else that you wanna highlight? And we'll have a link to your Twitter account where you're active or your ex account.

我还是习惯叫推特。我的播客还有几期节目待发布，但我会公开的。不，我觉得身处比特币生态系统中依然令人兴奋。某种程度上，我们常对这些周期感到恼火。

Still call I'm still calling Twitter. I mean, I have a couple episodes still coming out on my podcast, but I'll publish that. No. I mean, I think it's it's just it's still exciting to be in the Bitcoin ecosystem. And I think in a way, we were often annoyed at these cycles.

比如人们先是极度无知，然后又过度狂热。但这也像是个很好的健身房，让我个人学会不过分纠结价格波动，保持长期视角。对此我心存感激。另外比特币开发过程中，那些关于‘比特币本质是什么’的道德辩论也很有趣——究竟该优先保证金融交易在精简账本中的存储效率？

Like, people are so ignorant and then they get over excited. But still, it's been a great gym to just kind of use personally to not get overly invested in in the price too much and try to keep a long term perspective. So I do feel grateful for all that. And then, you know, it's interesting how with the Bitcoin development, just to see, again, that moral debate is like, okay, what is Bitcoin actually about? Is it about these financial transactions and storing them as best as possible in a very lean ledger?

还是该做成万能账本允许存储任何数据？人们争论时用的工具...表面看是技术论点，但核心始终是道德辩论：这个项目的终极目标究竟是什么？

Or is it an agnostic ledger where we should be able to put anything? Like, the tools that people use to debate are yeah. I mean, superficially, it's all technological arguments, but ultimately, it's about that moral argument of like, okay. What is this really about? What is the the higher goal of this entire project?

所以这至今仍非常迷人且意义重大。

So that's just very fascinating still and and important.

明白。我们会在节目备注里放上提到的所有链接。特儿，非常感谢抽空参与，期待下次再聊。

Yeah. Yeah. We'll have links to the things that we mentioned there in the show notes. Tur, thank you so much for making time, and I obviously look forward to the next time we could chat.

总是很愉快，普雷斯顿。总是很愉快。

Always a pleasure, Preston. Always a pleasure.

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