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您正在收听TIP。
You're listening to TIP.
你好。
Hi there.
今天的嘉宾是杰森·茨威格，他可能是美国最著名的财经作家。
My guest today is Jason Zweig, who's probably the most eminent financial writer in America.
我相信你都知道，杰森在《华尔街日报》撰写《聪明的投资者》专栏。
As I'm sure you know, Jason writes the Intelligent Investor column in The Wall Street Journal.
自2008年他开始撰写这个专栏以来，他一直出色地引导读者每周做出更明智的投资决策，并帮助他们避免各种愚蠢且代价高昂的金融错误。
Since he started writing this column back in 2008, he's done an incredible job of guiding readers week in and week out to make smarter investment decisions and to protect them from all sorts of dumb and costly financial mistakes.
杰森还编辑并更新了本·格雷厄姆的杰作《聪明的投资者》的修订版，沃伦·巴菲特称这本书是迄今为止关于投资最好的著作。
Jason also edited and updated the revised edition of Ben Graham's masterpiece, The Intelligent Investor, which Warren Buffett has described as by far the best book about investing ever written.
杰森还是《魔鬼金融词典》的作者。
Jason's also the author of The Devil's Financial Dictionary.
这是一本非常幽默的讽刺作品，嘲讽了他所说的华尔街的潮流与虚假现象。
It's a very amusing satirical book that skewers what he calls the fads and fakery of Wall Street.
他还写了一本经典著作《你的钱与你的大脑》，运用神经科学解释如何改善你的财务决策。
He also wrote a classic book called Your Money and Your Brain, which draws on neuroscience to explain how you can improve your financial decision making.
在这次对话中，我们讨论了杰森的观点，即投资成功的真正秘诀其实是掌控自己。
In this conversation, we talk about Jason's belief that the real secret to investment success is actually to gain control over yourself.
我们探讨了比特币等加密货币，以及他对投资颠覆性技术的整体看法。
We discuss cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and what he thinks about investing in disruptive technologies in general.
我们谈到了他从采访沃伦·巴菲特身上学到的东西。
We talk about what he's learned from interviewing Warren Buffett.
我们讨论了杰森与诺贝尔经济学奖得主、心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼合作撰写书籍的有趣经历。
We discuss Jason's fascinating experience of collaborating on a book with the Nobel Prize winning economist and psychologist Daniel Kahneman.
我们还谈到了幸福的科学。
And we talk about the science of happiness.
正如你将听到的，杰森是一位出色的故事讲述者，充满了关于投资和人生的智慧与实用建议。
As you'll hear, Jason's a wonderful storyteller, and he's full of wise and practical advice about investing and life.
我也很高兴地说，他是我的一位老朋友兼挚友，因此这次对话对我来说完全是种享受，相信你也能从偶尔爆发的哄堂大笑中感受到这一点。
I'm also happy to say he's an old and dear friend of mine, so this conversation was really just a total pleasure for me, as I'm sure you'll gather from the occasional outbreaks of raucous laughter.
我希望你们和我一样享受这段内容。
I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.
非常感谢你们的参与。
Thank you so much for joining us.
您正在收听《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》播客，主持人威廉·格林将采访世界上最伟大的投资者，探讨如何在市场和生活中取得成功。
You're listening to the richer, wiser, happier podcast, where your host, William Green, interviews the world's greatest investors and explores how to win in markets and life.
大家好。
Hi, everyone.
我很高兴能与杰森·茨威格一起在这里，多年来，他可能教会了我关于投资艺术的最多知识，也可能是当今最出色的财经作家。
I'm thrilled to be here with Jason Zweig, who has probably taught me more than anyone else about the art of investing over the years, and may possibly be the best financial writer around.
谢谢你加入我们，杰森。
So thank you for joining us, Jason.
能和你在一起真好，威廉，我们就不必再夸奖了。
Well, it's great to be with you, William, and we'll leave the compliments aside.
但还是谢谢你。
But thank you.
很高兴你能来这里。
I'm delighted to have you here.
我想先问一下你父亲欧文·茨威格的事，我想他是在你大约22岁的时候去世的。
I wanted to start actually by asking you about your father, Irving Zweig, who died, I think, when you were about 22.
那是四十年前的1981年了。
This is way back four decades ago in 1981.
你过去曾形容他是你认识过的最伟大、最睿智的人。
And you've described him in the past as the greatest and wisest man you've ever known.
在你的一本书中，你将书献给了父亲，并写道：献给知道一切的父亲。
And in one of your books, you wrote a dedication to your father and it said, for my father who knew everything.
我想知道你能否多告诉我们一些关于他的事，你为何如此敬重他，以及他如何影响了今天的你。
And I wondered if you could tell us a bit more about who he was, why you revered him, and how he influenced the person you've become.
是的。
Yeah.
我父亲是个非凡的人。
So my dad was a remarkable guy.
我的父亲出生在纽约奥尔巴尼和马萨诸塞州皮茨菲尔德之间的一个农场。
I mean, he was born on a farm between Albany, New York and Pittsfield, Massachusetts.
第一次世界大战期间，他年纪较大时才有了孩子，因为他曾在第二次世界大战中服役三次，因为军方弄丢了他记录。
During World War one, he had kids later in life because he served three tours of duty in World War two because the military lost his records.
你知道，他是个农民。
You know, he was a farmer.
他是一名政治学教授。
He was a political science professor.
他是一名报纸出版商。
He was a newspaper publisher.
他后来成为艺术和古董鉴赏家，同时也是一名运动员。
He became an art and antiques connoisseur, and he was an athlete.
他曾连续几年打半职业棒球。
He played semi professional baseball for a couple of years.
在第二次世界大战期间，他担任美国陆军的一艘船的船长，因为陆军有几艘船，而我父亲负责一艘扫雷舰。
He captained a boat in the navy of the US army during World War II because the army had a few boats and my dad was in charge of a ship, a minesweeper.
所以，他的服役经历带他去了南美洲、非洲海岸、印度洋和南太平洋。
So he visited his tours of duty took him to South America, the coast of Africa, the Indian Ocean, the South Pacific.
他没有经历太多战斗任务，但已经见得足够多了。
He didn't see a lot of combat duty, but he saw enough.
他教给我的众多事情中，有一句他最喜欢的话是：人类对彼此所能做出的最崇高或最可怕的事情，都是可能的。
And among the many things he taught me was that there's one of his favorite expressions was there's nothing so noble or so horrible that human beings can't do to each other.
他在很多方面都是一个非凡的人。
And he was just an extraordinary man in a lot of ways.
他也是一个很棒的故事讲述者。
He was a great storyteller too.
如果我没记错的话，他还是一位勇于斗争的报人。
He was a crusading newspaper man as well, if I remember rightly.
我记得你写过一些内容，说他当时在采访某个故事时差点丧命。
I remember reading something you had written where he almost got killed when he was working on some story.
那到底发生了什么？
What happened there?
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
That's correct.
所以，在二十世纪四十年代末，我父亲在俄亥俄州立大学攻读政治学博士学位时，正如他所说，他染上了新闻业的瘾，于是毅然放下一切，在俄亥俄河畔、紧邻西弗吉尼亚州边境的地方买下了一家报纸，当时那里是俄亥俄州非常贫困的地区。
So in the late nineteen forties, my dad was working on his PhD in political science at Ohio State when, as he put it, he got bit by the newspaper bug and he just dropped everything and bought a newspaper on the Ohio River right across from the West Virginia border in what then was a very poor part of Ohio.
我不太了解今天的 demographics，但那时候，那里相当贫困。
And I I I I'm not familiar with the demographics today, but in those days, was quite poor.
那里有许多陶瓷工厂，因为俄亥俄河沿岸有大量可开采的黏土。
There were numerous pottery factories there because there's a lot of workable play along the banks of the Ohio River there.
显然，其中一个小镇的所有工人都被一个腐败的工会头目控制，他恐吓所有人，向他们勒索钱财。
And, apparently, one of the towns, all the workers were in the grip of a corrupt union boss who was terrorizing everyone and shaking them down for money.
我父亲从工会成员那里得到了许多线索。
And my dad got a bunch of tips from people in the union.
在下一次工会选举中，他写了大量社论和调查性报道，揭露这个人腐败的行径。
And at the next union election, he wrote a lot of editorials and a lot of investigative journalism exposing this guy as corrupt.
于是，工会头目的打手们找上了我父亲，割破了他的轮胎。
And the labor union boss's goons came after my dad, slashed his tires.
他们威胁要殴打他当时怀孕的妻子，据他回忆，其中一人说：‘如果你不停止写这些报道，我们就用千斤顶把孩子从你妻子肚子里打出来。’
They threatened to beat his then pregnant wife as he recalled one of them saying, if you don't knock off them stories, we're gonna beat that baby out of your wife with a crowbar.
这还是我父亲的第一任妻子。
And this was my dad's first wife.
后来，他们在一个大雾的夜晚把他逼下公路，差点让他撞进俄亥俄河的河岸里。
And then they ran him off the road on a foggy night and almost crashed his car into the down the banks of the Ohio River.
但最终，新闻报道起了作用。
But in the end, journalism worked.
正义得到了伸张。
Justice prevailed.
工会头目被赶下台，一个正直的人接任了。
The union boss was thrown out, and a nuke guy came in.
我认为我父亲余生都在寻找另一个像这样精彩的故事，但始终没能找到。
And I think my dad spent the rest of his journalism career trying to find another story as good as that one and never really did.
你知道，大多数记者一生中只能遇到寥寥几个精彩的故事。
And, you know, most journalists get a handful of great stories in a lifetime.
他显然拥有一个非凡的故事，但他却体现了默默无闻的勇气。
And obviously he had an amazing one, but he was an example of quiet courage.
我认为另一件让我深深记住的关于我父亲的事，威廉，是1981年，我父亲身患癌症即将离世时，我回家探望，电话响了，一个声音问：‘这是茨威格家吗？’
And I think the other story about my dad that really sticks in my memory, William, is in 1981 when my dad was dying of cancer, I was home for a visit and the phone rang and a voice said, is this the Zweig residence?
那是一个非常礼貌、语气正式的男人。
Very polite, formal sounding man.
我回答：‘是的，有什么我可以帮您的吗？’
And I said, yes, can I help you?
他问：‘欧文在吗？’
And he said, is Irving there?
我说：‘在，但他现在不太能接电话，要我帮您留言吗？’
And I said, yes, but he's not really able to come to the phone, can I take a message?
据我回忆，那人说：‘那你能不能告诉他，格伦·欧文打电话找他？’
And as I recall the man's name, said, well, could you tell him that Glenn Irwin is on the phone?
我对父母的生意以及他们的人生经历了如指掌，却从未听说过这个人。
And I knew everything about my parents' business and a lot about their life history, I had never heard of this man.
于是我走过去告诉他，那时我父亲行动非常困难，因为他的肺癌已经扩散到双腿。
And I went and I told him, at that point it was very difficult for my dad to move around the house because his lung cancer had spread to his legs.
但他看着我，眼中突然闪出光来，说：‘哦，我来跟他讲。’
But he looked at me and then a light came on in his eyes and he said, oh, I'll speak to him.
他费了很大的劲儿，才走到电话旁。
And he sort of, with a great deal of difficulty came to the phone.
如果你曾听过一段只能听到一方的精彩对话，它一定会深深留在你的记忆里。
And if you've ever listened to a stunning conversation that you can only hear one half of, it always sticks with you.
我父亲接过电话，说：‘格伦？’
And my dad took the phone and he said, Glenn?
沉默良久后，我父亲说：‘是的，我记得。’
And after a long pause, my dad said, yes, I remember.
电话那头的人开始向我父亲讲述一个故事，父亲不断点头，说：‘是的，我记得。’
And this the person at the other end started telling my dad a story and my dad kept nodding and saying, yes, I I remember.
嗯。
Yeah.
我记得。
I remember.
我看到了一件从未见过的事——我看到了我父亲在哭。
And I saw something I had never seen, I saw my father cry.
我几乎听不清埃文先生在对他说什么，但他们聊了大约十分钟，最后我父亲说：‘非常感谢，我希望如此。’我立刻推断出——我认为我的推断是正确的——埃文先生对父亲说：‘我希望在我还能见到你的时候，能再见到你。’
And I couldn't hear almost anything of what Mr Erwin was telling him, but they talked for about ten minutes and at the end my dad said, thank you very much, I hope so, which I immediately inferred and I think correctly that Mr Erwin had said to my dad, I hope I will get to see you while I still can.
他挂断电话后，我问父亲：‘那人是谁？’
And when he hung up, I said to my dad, who was that?
我父亲接着告诉我这个故事的另一半：大约在20世纪30年代末。
And my dad proceeded to tell me the other half of the story, which is sometime around in the late 1930s.
我父亲当时是纽约斯克内克塔迪联合学院的学生，有一天早上他去上课，走在一名学生身后，注意到那人是黑人。
My dad was a student at Union College in Schenectady, New York and he was walking to class one morning and he was walking behind a student and my dad noticed he was black.
当时，他要么是唯一的黑人学生，要么是仅有的三四个黑人学生之一。
And at that time he was either the only black student or one of maybe three black students or handful of black students at the time.
我父亲以前从未见过他。
And my dad had never seen him before.
他们俩都各自走着，互不干扰。
And they were both walking along, minding their own business.
突然，从几棵树后冲出一群白人男子，扑向那位黑人学生，开始踢打他。
And suddenly from behind a few trees, a bunch of white guys jumped the black student and started kicking him and beating him up.
我父亲立刻放下手中的书本或任何他拿着的东西，冲上去反击，站在伦·欧文一边，尽管他根本不认识这个孩子。
And my dad immediately dropped his books or whatever he was carrying and jumped in and fought back and took Len Irwin's side even though he didn't know who this kid was.
但对他来说，谁对谁错一目了然。
But it was obvious to him that who was right and who was wrong.
片刻之后，校园保安赶到，制止了打斗，所有人都被带到了大学校长的办公室，校长名叫迪克森·莱恩·福克斯，是一位非常著名的学者。
And momentarily, the campus security people came along and broke up the fight, and they all got dragged to the office of the president of the university whose name was Dixon Ryan Fox, who was a very famous scholar.
当然，那些袭击格伦·欧文的白人学生都把责任推给了他。
And of course, the white kids who had jumped Glenn Irwin all blamed him.
他们说：‘我们正好好走着路，这个黑鬼突然攻击了我们。’
And they said, we were walking along minding our own business and this n word guy attacked us.
所以我们不得不反击，然后这个孩子又来了，惹出了更多麻烦，事情就是这样。
So we had to fight back and then this kid came along and made even more trouble and that's what happened.
于是福克斯转向我父亲格伦·艾尔温，说：你知道吗？你这边是怎么说的？
And so Fox turned to my dad Glenn Irwin and said, you know, what's your side of the story?
格伦·艾尔温太害怕了，一句话也说不出来。
And Glen Irwin was so scared he couldn't speak.
我父亲说：福克斯校长，也许您还记得我当初被联合学院录取时的事。
And my dad said, well, President Fox, maybe you remember me from when I was admitted to Union College.
因为当我最初申请时，收到了一封拒信，上面说：你符合录取条件，但犹太人配额已满——因为在20世纪30年代，这个国家大多数精英教育机构都有政策，只允许招收一定数量的犹太学生，而犹太人配额已经满了。
Because my dad had gotten a rejection letter when he had initially applied that said, you're qualified for admission, but the Jewish quota is filled because in the nineteen thirties, most elite educational institutions in this country had a policy that they would only admit so many Jews and the Jewish quota had been filled.
于是，我父亲立刻坐上家里的马车——因为那时候还没有汽车——前往大约二十五到三十英里外的斯克内克塔迪。
And so my dad immediately got in his family's wagon, because in those days they didn't have cars, and rode to Schenectady, which was probably about 25 miles away, 30 miles away.
他在福克斯校长办公室外等了一整天，直到秘书告诉他可以进去。
And he waited outside president Fox's office all day long until his secretary said that he could go in.
他被录取了，然后对学院校长说：您给我寄了这封信，上面写着犹太人配额已满。
And he was admitted, and he said to the president of the of the college, you sent me this letter, and it said the Jewish quota has been filled.
嗯，正如您所知，福克斯总统，欧洲的战争阴云正在聚集，年轻的美国男子可能会被征召入伍。
Well, as you know, president Fox, the winds of war are gathering in Europe, and young American men may be called into military service.
如果我被征召入伍，我该不该告诉美军‘犹太人配额已满’？
Should I tell the US army that the Jewish quota has been filled when I'm drafted?
所以他讲了这个故事，福克斯总统说：‘是的，我记得你，年轻人。’
So he's telling this story, and president Fox says, yeah, I remember you, young man.
你能不能告诉我事情的真相？
Why don't you tell me what really happened?
最终，那些袭击格伦·艾尔文的暴徒被开除了。
And so what happened in the end was the thugs who attacked Glenn Irwin were expelled.
格伦·艾尔文后来继续发展，如果我没记错的话，他成为了一名化学工程师，并在美国一家大公司担任高级高管。
Glenn Irwin went on, and I if I remember right, he became something like a chemical engineer and became a senior executive at a major company in The US.
让我觉得特别震撼的是，我父亲从未向我们任何人提起过这件事。
And what to me was so striking about this story is that my dad had never told any of us about this.
我母亲也从未听过这个故事。
My mom had never heard the story.
事实上，事发当天我妈妈根本不知道这件事，因为这一切都只发生在我和我爸爸之间。
In fact, the day it happened, my mom didn't even hear about it because all this happened between me and my dad.
我认为这正是沉默勇气的定义——你做了如此高尚的事，却从不提起。
And that I think is really the definition of like quiet courage, when you do something that noble and you never even talk about it.
他彻底改变了这个人的生活。
And he completely transformed this man's life.
显然，厄温先生打电话是因为有人告诉他，欧文·茨威格病得很重。
And obviously, mister Erwin was calling because somebody had told him Irving Zweig is very sick.
他们已经四十多年没有联系了。
And they hadn't spoken in over forty years.
这太非凡了。
That's extraordinary.
所以，可以说你的新闻报道具有一种道德上的严肃性，我认为，你认真对待以一种为普通人对抗华尔街狡诈与自利行为的方式报道金融世界，这似乎带有一种——我本想说是一种微妙的 crusading 元素，但其实并不微妙。
So is it fair to say that this kind of there's a sort of moral seriousness to your journalism, I would say, where you take seriously the idea of writing about the financial world in a way where you're standing up for people, in a sense against exploitation by Wall Street with all of its cunning ways and self serving ways, that there is a sort of, I was going say a subtle crusading element, but it's not so subtle.
保护他人似乎是你工作的核心所在。
It seems to be pretty central to what you do, protecting people.
我想在这里非常谨慎。
I wanna be very careful here.
我的意思是，我永远不会将像我这样的人每天或每周所做的工作，与我父亲在那种场合所展现的勇气相提并论。
I mean, you know, I would never liken I would never compare, you know, the daily or weekly practice of what people like me do to the kind of courage that, you know, my dad exhibited on occasions like that.
但我受到一些不同的东西指引，那就是1995年我刚成为《福布斯》杂志共同基金编辑时，杂志编辑吉姆·迈克尔斯——当然，威廉，你也认识他——在我们谈话结束时给我这份工作，我问他：‘你有什么建议给我吗？’
But I am guided by something a little different, which is when I first became the mutual funds editor at Forbes Magazine in 1995, Jim Michaels, the editor of the magazine and of course you knew him as well, William, when he gave me the job at the end of our conversation, I said to him, do you have any advice for me?
因为共同基金编辑是吉姆刚加入杂志时的第一份工作，或者至少是早期的工作之一。
Because mutual funds editor at Forbes was actually his first job when he came to the magazine or one of his first jobs anyway.
他想了一会儿，然后看着我说：‘是的，别让任何人的血沾到你手上。’
And he thought about it for a second and then he looked at me and he said, yeah, don't get anybody's blood on your hands.
这句话一直铭记在我心中，至今仍影响着我。
And that stuck with me and has stayed with me ever since.
我的意思是，我认为记者绝不能把自己当成 crusaders，不能变得自以为是。
I mean, I think it's very important for journalists not to think of themselves as crusaders, not to become self righteous.
我们并不比我们所写的人更高尚。
We're not better than the people we write about.
我们甚至不如我们文章中批评的人，但我们代表的是我们的读者。
We're not even better than the people we criticize in our writing, but we do represent our readers.
吉姆想告诉我的是，你必须把读者的钱当作自己的钱来对待。
And what Jim was trying to tell me is that you have to treat your readers' money as if it were your own.
你必须有这种责任感：如果你不会用自己的钱支持你所推荐的投资方式或批评的内容，那就不能去推荐或批评。
And you have to have that sense of responsibility where you can't recommend an investment approach or critique something if you wouldn't put your own money behind what you're saying.
我认为这其中包含道德成分，因为我喜欢用一个说法：在金融食物链中，个人投资者就像浮游生物。
And I think there is a moral component to that because one expression I like to use is that in the financial food chain, the individual investor is like a piece of plankton.
我的意思是，这里有鲨鱼、梭子鱼、小鱼、小虾、磷虾等等。
I mean, there's sharks and barracudas and little fish and minnows and shrimp and krill.
而在所有这些之下，就是个人投资者。
And then down below all of those is the individual investor.
迎合人们想听的话实在太容易了。
And it's just so easy to pander and to tell people what they wanna hear.
我们的职责不是告诉人们他们想听的话。
And it's not our job to tell people what they wanna hear.
我们的职责是告诉他们他们需要知道的信息。
It's our job to tell them what they need to know.
当你刚开始报道共同基金时，我想那大概是1987年左右，八十年代末或九十年代初？
When you started covering mutual funds, which I think must've been what around '87, something like that, late eighties, early nineties?
嗯，我于1992年成为《福布斯》的共同基金编辑。
Well, I became the mutual funds editor at Forbes in 1992.
是的。
Yeah.
但在那之前，我已经做过一些基金报道。
But I had done a little bit of fund reporting before that.
当你看到华尔街正在发生的事情、资金的管理方式、基金的销售方式、自我利益和利益冲突时，你感到震惊了吗？
Were you startled to see the sort of things that were going on Wall Street and the way that money was managed, the way that funds were sold, the self interest, the conflicts of interest.
你看到了什么，让你对华尔街的运作方式变得如此愤世嫉俗？你开始对人们说，别只顾着挑出优秀的基金经理然后告诉他们现在就该投资这个，而是提醒人们要当心，因为这里有些事情，比如三五点，你可能根本没搞明白。
What did you see that started to make you pretty cynical about the ways of Wall Street and to see actually, instead of me just picking great fund managers and telling people, you have to invest in this now, you were kind of saying to people, you better beware because there's stuff going on here three:fifty that I'm not sure you understand.
嗯，我觉得有几方面原因。
Well, I guess a couple of things.
我的意思是，我在《福布斯》有很多优秀的导师。
I mean, I had great mentors at Forbes.
吉姆·迈克尔斯就是其中之一。
Jim Michaels was one.
比尔·鲍德温是另一位。
Bill Baldwin was another.
也许更重要的是，因为我更多地和他们共事，比如艾伦·斯隆、格雷琴·摩根森、艾伦·弗兰克、霍华德·鲁德尼茨基。
Maybe even more importantly, because I worked more with them, Alan Sloan, Gretchen Morgansson, Alan Frank, Howard Rudnitsky.
那些年，《福布斯》有太多了不起的记者。
There were just incredible reporters at Forbes in those days.
《福布斯》有一种新闻文化的氛围：充满怀疑、批判，甚至相当多的愤怒。
And Forbes was a journalistic culture of cynicism and skepticism and also a fair amount of, let's say anger.
记者和撰稿人普遍不喜欢企业界和华尔街的许多行为。
People, the reporters and writers really didn't like the way corporate America and Wall Street behaved a lot of the time.
我只是如饥似渴地吸收了这一切。
And I just sort of drank that up and absorbed it.
而且无所畏惧，这很不寻常。
Was also fearless, which is unusual.
对于不了解吉姆·迈克尔斯的人，吉姆长得有点像《辛普森一家》里伯恩斯的样子。
For people who don't know Jim Michaels, Jim, who who looked a bit like Burns in the, Simpsons episode.
他是一个身材矮小、长相阴森的小个子，却无比无畏和强硬。
Was sort of small small satanic looking guy who was just so fearless and tough.
他主编这本杂志长达三十七年。
And he edited the magazine for thirty seven years.
在我加入杂志之前，我写过一篇调查报道，揭露了一位身家数亿美元的人。
And before I joined the magazine, I wrote a test story exposing a guy who was worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
我想标题是《榨取傻瓜》，因为他是个矿业企业家。
I think the headline was mining the suckers because he was a mining entrepreneur.
而那个人拒绝与我交谈。
And the guy didn't talk to me.
在我刚加入福布斯的第一天，也就是这篇试水报道之后，这位亿万富翁从新加坡飞来，向吉姆·迈克尔斯控诉我是个可恶的家伙，说我该被开除。
And on my very first day at Forbes, when I'd been hired after this trial story, this guy, the centimillionaire, flies in from Singapore to tell Jim Michaels what an appalling guy I am and how I should be fired.
所以，我刚入职第一天就觉得自己当天就要被开除了。
So I literally on my first day in this job was like, I'm going to get fired on the first day.
我记得吉姆·迈克尔斯给我写信，问我事实真相。
And I remember Jim Michaels writing to me and asking me for the facts.
我为我写过的各种内容提供了佐证。
I sort of backed up various things that I'd written.
他回信说：‘好吧，我就礼貌地让他滚蛋吧。’
And he wrote back and he said, All right, I'll just politely tell him to piss off then.
能遇到一位如此勇敢的编辑，愿意挑战那些有权有势、随时可能起诉的人，真是太了不起了。
And it was just so phenomenal to have an editor with that courage that he was prepared to take on interests that were powerful and could sue.
我不确定现在还会不会发生这样的事。
And I'm not sure that would happen anymore.
我认为现在没有多少杂志和报纸愿意以这种无畏的态度去对抗那些权势，因为这个行业利润不高，经不起这样的战争。
I don't think there are that many magazines and newspapers that are willing to take on those powers with that kind of fearlessness because the business isn't so lucrative that you can survive that sort of war.
没错。
That's right.
当时，福布斯和其他一些出版物拥有极其盈利的奢侈条件。
Well, Forbes was and a handful of other publications had the luxury then of being incredibly profitable.
虽然我不记得那家公司了，但我清楚地记得我写过一篇极具批判性的报道，导致那家公司撤回了未来一年在《福布斯》上的所有广告。
And I although I don't remember the company, I distinctly remember writing a story that was so critical that the company pulled all of its ads from Forbes for the next year.
我记不起来了。
I couldn't tell you.
那都是很久以前的事了，我不记得是谁了。
It was so long ago, I don't remember who it was.
我记得这件事刚发生后，我碰到了吉姆，可能是在走廊里或别的地方。
And I remember after this happened, right after it happened, bumping into Jim, maybe in the hallway or someplace.
他说：‘恭喜你。’
And he said, congratulations.
我说：‘我做了什么？’
And I said, what did I do?
他说：‘你让他们一年内全部撤掉了广告。’
And he said, you got them to kill all their ads for a year.
如今，有编辑会对记者说出这样的话，这想法简直太不切实际了。
And the thought that an editor would say that to a reporter today is is pretty far fetched.
但在那个年代，这确实是一种荣誉的象征。
But in those days, it was really a badge of honor.
这真令人印象深刻。
That's impressive.
是啊。
Yeah.
我记得有一次，我写的一篇报道被一家大型杂志撤掉了，那家杂志非常有名，原因是我所报道的公司正好在那一期登了广告。
I remember once having a story killed by a major magazine, really prominent magazine, because the company I was writing about had an ad in that issue.
那至少是十年后的事了。
That was at least a decade later.
所以我认为，这暴露了这些强大出版物的脆弱性。
So I think that showed the vulnerability of these very powerful publications.
我觉得我们很幸运，因为在那样的环境中成长，我们的上司无所畏惧，而且背后有金钱和权力的支持。
I think we were very lucky that we were groomed in that environment in which we just had a boss who was fearless and had money and power behind him.
这是一段绝佳的培训经历。
Was a fantastic schooling.
多年后，你写了这本精彩而愤世嫉俗、机智幽默的书《魔鬼金融词典》，讽刺了华尔街的运作方式。我记得你曾写道：无论你对华尔街多么愤世嫉俗，你都还不够愤世嫉俗。
Years later, you wrote this wonderfully cynical and witty book, The Devil's Financial Dictionary, which satirizes Wall Street's way of operating, You wrote, if I remember rightly, no matter how cynical you are about Wall Street, you aren't cynical enough.
我记得有一个片段特别喜欢，就是你对‘客户’的定义：名词，又称华尔街的木偶、小跟班、傻瓜、受骗者、目标、受害者、愚人、小海豹、绵羊、羔羊、小鱼、鹅、鸽子和鸭子——就像那句老话：鸭子一叫，就喂它。
There was a point where I think one of my favorite bits was when your definition of clients, you said noun, also known on Wall Street as Muppets, Flunkies, Chumps, Suckers, Marks, Targets, Victims, Dupes, Baby Seals, Sheep, Lambs, Guppies, Geese, Pigeons, and Ducks, as in when the ducks quack, feed them.
我想知道，你能否谈谈是什么让你变得如此怀疑，让你决定以一种深刻怀疑和警惕的态度来报道投资业务和资金管理？
And I was wondering if you could talk a bit about some of the things that made you skeptical and made you see, I've got to cover the business of investing and how money is managed in a deeply skeptical and wary fashion.
是的。
Yeah.
我想我能想起的一个关键经历是——这大概发生在我不再是共同基金编辑之前，或者刚卸任不久的时候。
So I think one formative experience that I can remember was, I mean, was probably I think this was before I was a mutual funds editor and maybe it was right after.
我们在《华尔街日报》今天不可能做到的事，在当时《福布斯》却是被允许的：我和另一位记者给每一家主要经纪公司打电话，假装成投资者，问：我想买一些共同基金，该怎么做？
We did something that at The Wall Street Journal today we would not be able to do, but at Forbes then it was permissible, which is I and I think another reporter called every major brokerage firm and basically impersonated an investor and said, I'd like to buy some mutual funds, how do I go about this?
销售佣金是多少？
What's the sales commission?
每年要花多少钱？
What will it cost me every year?
询问基金的费用。
Asking about the expenses of the fund.
据我回忆，这些对话中没有一次是真实的。
And so far as I can recall, not a single one of those conversations was truthful.
我们交谈的几乎每一位经纪人都告诉我们一些虚假的信息。
Virtually every broker we spoke to told us something that was false.
我想我从中学到了两点：第一，不要相信任何人；第二，并非所有人都故意撒谎。
And I guess I learned two things from that, which one, don't trust anybody, but two, not everybody tells you things that are false because they're lying.
很多人告诉你错误的信息，只是因为他们不知道真相。
A lot of people tell you things that are false because they don't know any better.
从终端消费者——个人投资者的角度来看，这几乎没什么区别。
The problem is from the point of view of the end consumer, the individual investor, it almost doesn't matter.
我的意思是，如果有人误导你，你并不真的在意这是不是故意的。
I mean, if somebody is misleading you, you don't really care whether that's intentional or not.
但我得出的结论是，向公众销售投资产品的人群中，很多人要么在撒谎，要么无知。
But the conclusion I came away with is that a lot of people are either lying or ignorant in the community that sells investments to the public.
这种观点从未真正改变过。
And that view has never really changed.
我的意思是，我认为普通的财务顾问是骗子或傻瓜吗？
I mean, do I think that the average financial advisor is a liar or a fool?
不。
No.
我认为大多数人都很诚实，他们尽力谋生并帮助他们服务的客户。
I think most of them are are honest people doing their best to earn a living and help the people they work for.
但仍然有太多人并非如此。
But there's still way too many of them who aren't.
对于选错顾问的客户来说，后果可就严重了。
And, you know, woe be tied to client who makes the wrong match.
而且，‘财务顾问’这个说法本身就是一个有点委婉的措辞，不是吗？
And even the phrase financial adviser is a little bit of a euphemism, isn't it?
当然，确实是。
Of course, it is.
我最大的问题是，大多数财务顾问并不提供财务建议。
The big problem I have is that most financial advisers don't give financial advice.
他们所做的只是推荐投资组合，本质上是那些并不真正具备投资管理能力的投资经理，这就是为什么他们被称为财务顾问，而不是像富达或其他大型公司那样担任投资组合经理。
What they do is they recommend portfolios and they're basically investment managers who aren't really qualified to manage investments, which is why they're financial advisors rather than portfolio managers working for Fidelity or another major firm.
他们把所做的事情称为财务建议，但其实他们只是在推荐投资组合，而大多数客户需要的远不止投资组合推荐。
And they call what they do financial advice, but really all they're doing is recommending portfolios And most clients need more than just portfolio recommendations.
他们需要的是财务规划建议，但大多数财务顾问更愿意管理这些小型投资组合，而不是提供客户真正需要的建议。
They need financial planning advice, and most financial advisers would rather run these little portfolios than give people the advice they need.
你和我曾在九十年代末期在《金钱》杂志共事了大约五年，我想。
You and I worked together at Money Magazine back in the late nineties for about five years, I think.
尽管我当时比你年轻得多，经验也少得多，但我有幸编辑你的专栏，这对你来说一定是一种折磨。
And despite the fact that I was much younger and less experienced than you, I had the pleasure of editing your column, which must have been torture for you.
我那时的感觉是，即使在那时，你也一直把自己的钱主要投资于指数基金，而不是试图挑选最优秀的主动型基金经理。
And my sense back then was that even then you always were investing your money basically in index funds instead of trying to pick the best active fund managers.
我猜你是为数不多真正具备绝佳条件去挑选真正杰出基金经理的人之一，因为你曾在《福布斯》、《金钱》杂志，以及担任《时代》周刊等其他媒体的客座专栏作家时，采访过大量基金经理。
I figured that you were one of the few people who was actually in a perfect position to pick truly exceptional fund managers, that you got to interview a lot of them, both at Forbes and then at Money, and when you were guest columnist at Time and elsewhere.
我觉得这非常有趣。
And I thought that was really interesting.
这一点让我深有感触：尽管你拥有挑选潜在获胜基金经理的机会，你却选择了指数投资。
There was something very telling to me about that, that despite being in a position to pick potentially winning fund managers, you chose to index.
而我对这个选择一直有些矛盾。
And I always was a little bit more schizophrenic about the choice.
我始终将一部分家庭储蓄进行指数投资，尤其是我妻子和孩子的钱，因为我不认为他们应该为我的自我欺骗买单。
I've always indexed a part of my family's savings, particularly my wife and kids' money, because I don't think they should pay for my own self delusion.
但我一直倾向于将我自己的部分资金投入主动管理型基金经理，至少在一定程度上如此。
But I've always erred towards investing my own money with active fund managers, at least to some extent.
我想知道，你能否谈谈，为什么尽管你确实有机会找到杰出的主动管理型基金经理，你却最终成为指数投资的坚定倡导者？
And I wondered if you could talk us through why you ended up being such a passionate advocate of indexing, despite the fact that you actually did have that opportunity to find exceptional fund managers, active fund managers.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，为了避免让你失望，我会说，我一直以来都非常热爱我的工作，因此投入了大量自我于其中，而当我不在工作时，我不想再想工作的事。
So at the risk of disappointing you with a simple answer, I'll say that I've always loved my work so much that I throw a lot of myself into it and when I'm not on the job, I don't want to think about my job.
我不希望在不工作的时候还在做工作。
I don't wanna do my job when I'm not doing my job.
比如，我认为我只看过两部关于金融的电影，我想，就是《华尔街》和《大空头》。
And for example, I think the only movie about I've only seen two financial movies, I think, ever, Wall Street and The Big Short.
我刻意不去看任何关于金融的电影。
I make a point of not watching any movie that's about finance.
你一定要看看《华尔街之狼》。
You've gotta see the Wolf of Wall Street.
那才算完整了这个策略。
That would complete the strategy.
而且而且
And and
还有《大盗》（Boiler Room），我想那四部是最好的，但我都没看过，也不打算看，因为我希望在不思考投资的时候，就不要去想投资。
you're a boiler room, and I guess that's the four best, but I haven't seen them and I don't plan on it because I don't wanna think about investing when I'm not thinking about investing.
所以这其实就是答案。
So that's really the answer.
我不想要一个在我不监控投资组合时还得去监控的组合。
I don't want a portfolio that I have to monitor when I'm not monitoring portfolios.
当我休息时，我想做些别的事情。
When I'm not working, I wanna be doing something else.
威廉，如果你试图战胜市场——这显然是一场非常困难的游戏——我很想知道你会怎么做。
William So if you were trying to beat the market, which obviously is a very difficult game, I'm curious how you would go about it.
因为我经常思考这个问题，我自己也经常想，如果我拥有那种天赋和性格——而我显然没有——如果我作为一个年轻的基金经理，真的想战胜市场，我会建立一个由八到十二只股票组成的小型投资组合。
Because I think about this a lot obviously myself, and I often think that if I had the talent and the temperament, which I most definitely don't, What I would do if I was setting up as a young money manager and I actually really wanted to beat the market is I'd run a small portfolio with say eight, ten, 12 stocks.
大多数时候，我只是袖手旁观，什么都不做。
And most of the time I just sit on my hands and do nothing.
然后偶尔，当市场或某个行业出现动荡时，我会在那些不受欢迎的股票便宜时大量买入，然后持有多年。
Then once in a while, there was some sort of disruption in the market or in that sector, I'd try to load up on cheap stocks when they were out of favor and then hold them for years.
某种程度上，这类似于乔·格林布拉特、尼克·斯利普或李录等人多年来所采取的策略，也许可以更关注一些效率较低的领域，比如微型股或分拆公司，因为在这些地方更有可能发现定价错误的股票。
In some ways, the type of approach that people like Joe Greenblatt or Nick Sleep or Li Lu, I guess, taken over the years, And maybe focus a bit on less efficient areas like micro caps or spinoffs where you're more likely to find a mispriced stock.
我想知道，这是赢得游戏的唯一方式吗？还是说有多种方式可以获胜？
And I was wondering, is that the way to win the game or are there many ways to win the game?
如果你一生都在宣扬指数投资的好处，但突然说：‘好吧，其实我想试着战胜市场’，你会怎么做？
What would you do if despite a lifetime of preaching the virtues of indexing, you said, yeah, actually, I'm gonna try to beat the market?
首先，我认为有多种方式。
Well, first of all, I think there are many ways.
马特·塞尼是穆特ual Shares公司迈克尔·普莱斯的导师，他常说：‘条条大路通耶路撒冷。’
Matt Tseini, who was Michael Price's mentor at Mutual Shares used to say, there are many roads to Jerusalem.
我认为这确实是对的。
And I think that really is true.
我的意思是，就像你所描述的集中型小盘价值投资方法很有吸引力，相反的方法也同样有效。
I mean, just as the sort of concentrated small cap value approach that you described has a lot of appeal, the opposite does too.
市场上有大量基金经理通过买入高估的动量股票，建立了惊人的业绩记录。
There's tons of money managers out there who have built amazing records buying overpriced momentum stocks.
所以我认为，人们很少谈论的关键是结构。
So I think the key is the thing that people don't talk about very much, the key is structure.
一家从一开始就未设计为优化长期超额收益的资产管理公司，永远无法实现这一目标，也无法持续下去。
A money management firm that isn't structured from the start to optimise for long term outperformance is never going to be able to do it, never going to be able to sustain it.
其中一个关键在于管理者与客户之间在心理和经济上的利益一致。
And one of the keys is having a mental and economic alignment between the manager and the clients.
我的意思是，如果你的客户选错了，那么无论你的投资组合有多好都没用。
I mean, if you have the wrong clients, it doesn't matter whether you have the right portfolio.
如果你的投资组合错了，但客户选对了，他们仍然能与你一起坚持下去。
If you have the wrong portfolio and the right clients, they'll be able to see it through with you.
你知道吗，当我阅读一些公司的情况，或遇到、与那些有意识地设计了结构的经理交流时，我会思考：他们的费用是如何设定的？
You know, I think when I read about firms or I encounter or I talk to managers at firm that have designed the structure very deliberately, like how are the fees set up?
当资产增长到某一水平时，你们是否会关闭新的投资？
Will you close to new investment when assets grow beyond a certain level?
你们如何处理赎回？
How do you handle redemptions?
你们多久与客户沟通一次？你们告诉他们什么？
How often do you communicate with your clients and what do you tell them?
我认为，那些在這種設計上投入最多、并认识到成功投资在于构建一个社区的公司，表现最为出色。
I think the firms that invest the most in that kind of design and recognizing that successful investing is about creating a community.
这个社区的成员包括投资组合所投资的公司，也就是你的被投企业；然后是你的投资者，即客户；还有投资经理。
So the members of that community are the companies that the portfolio is invested in, those are your investees, then there's your investors, your clients and then there's the investment manager.
你应该把这些看作一个三角形，除非这是一个等边三角形，否则它无法承受自身的重量，因为当市场失控、关键时刻来临，这个三角形的某一条边就会断裂。
And you should think of those things as a triangle and unless it's an equilateral triangle, it won't be able to sustain its own weight because when push comes to shove and markets go haywire, one or more of the legs of that triangle will snap.
最优秀的公司是那些提前为这种情况做好规划的公司。
And the best firms are the ones that really plan for that in advance.
如果你想想那些几十年来建立了惊人业绩的经理人，比如巴菲特、芒格，还有我去年年底写过的中央证券公司的威尔梅特·基德。
And if you think about the managers who've built amazing track records over the course of decades, like Buffett, Munger, like Wilmette Kidd at Central Securities whom I wrote about late last year.
这些人真正地将自己的业务当作一项投资来设计，而这正是他们取得成功的重要原因。
These are people who really have designed their business as if it were an investment and that's a large part of what's enabled them to succeed.
重要的不是你投资了什么，甚至也不是你如何投资，而是你如何将这一过程与业务和客户整合在一起，使所有环节协同运作，从而最小化风险。
It's not so much what you invest in, it's not even so much how you invest, it's how you integrate that process with the business and with your clients so that it all works together and you minimize the risk.
你不仅要管理投资风险，还要管理业务风险——比如人们在错误的时机过于兴奋和狂热，或者在错误的时机过于悲观而撤资。
And you're not just managing investment risk, you're also managing the business risk of people getting too enthusiastic and euphoric at the wrong time and also people getting too pessimistic and pulling their money at the wrong time.
你以前写过，如果没有运气，创造和保有财富是不可能的。
You've written before that making and keeping wealth is impossible without luck.
我认为，即使对于这些伟大的投资者来说，时机也必须对他们有利。
I'd say even with a lot of these great investors, the timing had to break right for them.
你之前提到过迈克尔·普赖斯，我记得多年前他采访我时说：‘我开始在马克斯·海恩或海恩那里工作，我总是念不准他的名字。’
Someone like Michael Price, who you mentioned before, I remember many years ago interviewing me and he said, Look, I went to work with Max Heine, or Heine, I can never pronounce his name.
我搞错这个名字已经二十五年了，我就这么叫下去了。
I've got that name wrong for twenty five years and I'm sticking with it.
他说：‘我在熊市底部，大概是1973年或1974年，开始跟他干。’
He said, Look, I started with him at the bottom of the bear market in I think 'seventy three, 'seventy four.
所以我一开始就跟一位杰出的廉价股票猎手在市场最低点工作。
So I start with a guy who's a brilliant bargain hunter at the bottom of the market.
他说：‘我怎么可能赚不到巨额财富呢？’
He's like, How could I fail to make an unbelievable amount of money?
或者想想彼得·林奇，他有着长达十三年的辉煌业绩，无论他多么聪明、多么有才华，也许他最明智的决定就是在巅峰时退出了。
Or you think of Peter Lynch who had this great thirteen year run And however smart he was and talented he was, maybe the smartest thing was that he got out when he was at the top.
我们把他视为一种天才。
We remember him as this kind of genius.
我想知道你能否谈谈运气与技能之间的关系。
And I wondered if you could talk about the element of luck versus skill.
显然，这些人必须具备技能。
Clearly, these guys have to have skill.
我记得有人告诉我，他们曾与彼得·林奇在富达投资的会议上见过面。
I remember people telling me that they had been in investment meetings with Peter Lynch at Fidelity.
他们说：看，我参加了同样的会议。
And they would say, Look, I came out of the same meeting.
我听到了来自同一家公司的相同信息，但他一次又一次赚到了比我更多的钱。
I heard the same information from the same companies and he made more money than I did again and again.
所以这显然是他所具备的某种能力。
So it was clearly something he had.
然而，我认为我们无法否认运气所起的作用。
And yet there is an amount of luck that I think we can't deny.
你能为我们详细解释一下吗？
Can you unpack that a little for us?
我常这样想：幸运也是一种技能。
One way I like to think about it is that there's a skill to being lucky.
我知道你们以前听过我讲过这个故事，关于威廉的，严格来说这跟投资管理没什么关系。
And I know you've heard me tell this story before William and technically it has nothing to do with investment management.
但人们经常问我，我是怎么有机会编辑格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》这本书的？
But you know, people often ask me how I got to edit Graham's book, The Intelligent Investor.
他们以为我会说，哦，出版社举办了一场选拔赛，邀请了十位不同的作家，每人写一章样章，或者面试了很多人之类的。
And you know, they expect me to say, oh, know, the publisher did a beauty contest and brought in, you know, 10 different writers and had each one write a sample chapter or they interviewed people or whatever.
但其实不是这样的。
And it's like, no.
完全不是这么回事。
That's not what happened at all.
实际情况是这样的。
What happened is this.
所以我读过一本书，之后采访了作者，这本书叫《幸运因子》，作者是英国心理学家理查德·怀斯曼。
So I had read a book and then interviewed the author, a book called The Luck Factor by British psychologist named Richard Wiseman.
他做了一项全国范围的调查，了解人们对运气的态度。
And he had done a sort of big nationwide survey of people's attitudes toward luck.
当所有调查结果回来后，他和团队在整理数据时，发现有一份回答特别突出——我这里大幅简化了原话，细节可能不准确，但核心意思没错。
And when all the surveys came back, he and his team were going through them and there was one that really jumped out at him, which was, and I'm massively paraphrasing, I'm gonna get all the details wrong, but the essence of it is correct.
这位女士说：我丈夫去世了，两个孩子得了癌症，我丢了工作，但后来又找回来了，但我依然是个非常幸运的人。
This woman had said, my husband died, two of my kids have cancer, I lost my job, I got it back, but I'm a very lucky person.
他说：我必须采访这位女士。
And he said, I really need to interview this woman.
于是他们把她请来，他问：你描述了这么多发生在你身上的糟糕事情，却说自己很幸运，为什么这么说？
So they brought her in and he said, you know, you described all these terrible things that happened to you and you say you're lucky, why do you say that?
她接着给他讲了一个故事，说在丈夫去世、孩子生病后，她像任何人一样感到极度沮丧，挣扎不已，后来她决定给自己定一条规则：每次要走进一个满是人的房间时，她都会先想一个颜色。
And she proceeds to tell him this story and she says that after her husband died and her kids got sick, she felt very depressed as anybody would and she was really struggling and then she decided that she needed a rule and the rule she came up with was whenever she's about to go into a room full of people, she thinks of a color.
然后她走进房间，走向第一个穿着该颜色衣物的人，说：你好，我叫……
Then she goes into the room and she walks up to the first person who's wearing anything of that color and says, hello, my name is whatever her name was.
于是她看着威斯曼教授，他也看着她，说：‘这和运气有什么关系？’
And so she looks at professor Wiseman and he looks at her and he says, well, what does that have to do with luck?
她回答说：‘我每个星期六晚上都有约会。’
And she says, I always have a date on Saturday night.
所以我刚刚读了这本书，并从他那里听到了这个故事。
So I have just read this and heard the story from him.
当时时代公司举办了一场盛大的派对。
And there was a huge party at Time Inc.
你和我，我想那时我们都在那里工作，几百名记者都在场。
Where you and I, I think both were working there at the time and hundreds of journalists were there.
我忘了是什么场合。
I forget what the occasion was.
我和往常一样，和我最亲密的朋友聊天，并没有真正和群体互动。
And I was talking with, as usual, my closest friends and not really socializing with the group.
但在走进房间之前，我对自己说，我不确定是哪种颜色，但我就说是蓝色吧，我心想‘蓝色’。
But before I had walked in the room, I had said to myself, and I'm not sure which color it was, but I'm gonna say blue, I had said blue.
于是我环顾房间，看到一个我认识的人穿着蓝色衣服。
And so I looked across the room and there was somebody I knew wearing blue.
我对朋友们说：不好意思，我得去跟她谈谈。
And I said to my friends, excuse me, I really have to go talk to her.
她是我们共同的朋友尼娜。
And it was our mutual friend Nina.
啊。
Ah.
这位就是尼娜。
This is Nina
是一位出色的作家。
Monk who's a wonderful writer.
没错。
Yep.
于是我她在人群中走散了。
And so I I lost her in the crowd.
我当时想，哎呀，我已经有三四年没跟她说话了，或者差不多这么久。
And I was like, you know, I haven't talked to her in, like, three years or four years or something.
然后我想，管他呢，算了吧。
And I was like, Ah, the heck with it, forget it.
但接着我又想，不行，我得去跟她聊聊，因为她穿的是那种颜色——蓝色。
And then I was like, No, I have to talk to her because she's wearing whatever color it was, blue.
我找到她了，因为我一直在找那个颜色，我们聊了很多无关紧要的事情，然后生活照常继续。
And I found her because I was looking for the color and we had a wonderful talk about nothing in particular and life went on.
然后，你知道的，第二天我又回去上班了，诸如此类的事情。
And, you know, I went back to work the next day, etcetera, etcetera.
但没想到几天后，她的出版社请她吃午饭，祝贺她完成了那本关于AOL收购时代华纳的精彩著作。
But it turns out a couple days later, her book publisher takes her out to lunch to congratulate her for finishing her wonderful book on the merger, the takeover of Time Warner by AOL.
莽撞之人总爱冒进。
Fools rush in.
莽撞之人总爱冒进。
Fools rush in.
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她的出版商对
And her publisher says to
她竟为那些傻瓜工作。
her working for those fools.
没错。
That's correct.
她的出版商对她说：‘妮娜，你能帮我一个忙吗？’
And her publisher says to her, oh, Nina, you could help me with one thing.
你知道，我们有一本书，作者是已故的本杰明·格雷厄姆，我想他是这个名字。
You know, we have this book by this guy who's dead, Benjamin Graham, I think his name is.
这本书至今仍在销售，但年代久远，我们需要更新它。
And you know, it still sells but it's old and we need to update it.
你觉得谁适合做这件事？
Who do you think would be good for that?
她说出了我的名字。
And she said my name.
直到今天，她仍坚持说，即使没有我，她也会提到我的名字，但我对此并不确定。
Now she insists to this day that she would have said my name anyway, but I'm not so sure about that.
我认为她本来可能会说：‘嗯，我不确定，你可以试试五个人中的任何一个，比如杰森·茨威格。’但偏偏因为我刚好跑过去找她，而她穿的颜色正好是我喜欢的，她就提到了我的名字，这就是他们雇我的原因。
I think she might have said, well, I don't know, know, there's like five different people you could try, you know, one of them is Jason Zweig, but instead, because I just so happened to run over to her because she was wearing the right color, she said my name and that's why they hired me.
问题是，尽管我一直在金融新闻领域拼命努力，尽管我拥有众多优质人脉，尽管我把所有精力都投入了工作，为什么我却因为这样一个偶然的机会获得了这份荣誉？
And so the thing is that was despite the fact that I was trying to outwork everybody else in financial journalism, Despite the fact that I had all these great contacts, despite everything I threw into my job, why did I get this in honor of a lifetime?
因为尼娜·蒙克恰好穿了一条裙子，而那颜色正是我因为读过一本书而记在心里的。
Because Nina Monk happened to be wearing a dress whose color I had thought of because I had read a book.
所以，技能当然极其重要，也确实有影响，但生活的大部分——也许绝大多数——都是由这些随机的、古怪的时刻塑造的。
So skill is hugely important and it matters, but much of life, maybe most of life is shaped by just these weird moments of random chance.
你越专业，你所从事的工作越需要智力投入，你就越会坚决否认运气的重要性。
And the more professional you are and the more intellectual effort is involved in what you do, the more vehemently you will deny the importance of luck.
但它影响着每个领域中的每个人。
But it affects everyone in every field.
在资产管理领域，运气也同样至关重要。
And it's hugely important in asset management too.
杰森，几年前，我不确定这么说是否合适，有人请你写一本关于巴菲特、芒格、霍华德·马克斯和欧文·甘特等人的精彩照片的书。
And Jason, a few years ago, I don't know if I'm speaking out of school, but someone asked you to write this book where they had these amazing photos of guys like Buffett and Munger and Howard Marks and Irving Gaunt.
我想你当时问了《华尔街日报》是否可以由你来完成。
And you, I think, asked The Wall Street Journal if you could do it.
他们说：不行。
They said, No.
于是他们问：那还有谁能做呢？
And so they said, Well, so who else could do it?
而你推荐了我。
And you recommended me.
于是我最终写了《投资大师》，这本书让我在离开《时代》杂志担任编辑的休整期后，重新回归对伟大投资者的写作。
So I ended up writing The Great Minds of Investing, which got me back into writing about great investors after a hiatus when I'd been working at Time as an editor.
这本书促使我撰写了《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》。
And that book led me to write Richer, Wiser, Happier.
而这本书又引导我制作了这档《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》播客，这也就是为什么今天你我能够在这里对话。
And that book led me to be doing this Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast, which is why you and I are here today.
所以总会有这样一系列奇怪的事件发生，想想看。
So there's always this really strange sequence of events, think.
如果你不觉得我能做好，就不会推荐我；就像妮娜如果觉得你做不好，也不会推荐你。
You wouldn't have recommended me if you didn't think I would do a decent job, just as Nina wouldn't have recommended you if she didn't think you would do a decent job.
但我很喜欢霍华德·马克斯总是谈到他意识到自己只是个幸运的人，而这让他更快乐。
But I love the fact that Howard Marks always talks about his realization that he's just a lucky guy and that that makes him happier.
这也保护了他，避免陷入我所说的‘宇宙主宰综合症’——即你开始真的相信自己非常了不起。
And it also protects him from what I like to call master of the universe syndrome, where you start actually to believe that you're really good.
我认为你确实得非常优秀，但光有优秀是不够的。
And I do think you have to be really good, but it's just not enough.
是的，确实不够。
Yeah, it's not.
我不明白为什么当别人把你的成功归因于运气时，人们会如此生气。
And I don't understand why people get so angry when others attribute your success to luck.
我的意思是，别觉得我运气好就对你构成威胁。
I mean, don't find it threatening that I'm lucky.
我的担忧只有一件事，那就是我的好运可能会逆转，但幸运并不会削弱你，也不会让你的技能变少，它只是意味着，除了你已有的任何技能之外，你还被赐予了好运——无论你是否相信是上天的恩赐，还是纯粹的随机巧合。
I mean, the one thing I worry about is that my luck will turn, but being lucky doesn't diminish you, it doesn't make you less skilled, it just means that on top of whatever skill you have, you've also been blessed either by powers above if you believe in that or by random coincidence, you've been blessed with luck.
这一点非常重要，要时常提醒自己。
And that's a very important thing to remind yourself of.
我第一次与沃伦·巴菲特交谈时，我们是私下谈话，但我想我可以分享其中一部分。
The first conversation I ever had with Warren Buffett, we were speaking off the record, but I think I can share this part of it.
我问他第一个问题就是：你是如何看待自己的？
One of the first questions I asked him is, how do you think about yourself?
我的意思是，考虑到你多年来获得的所有赞誉和建立的业绩记录——那是2003年，当所有人都说你是天才时，你真的觉得自己是天才吗？
I mean, given all the praise that you get and the track record you've built up over the decades, this was 2003, do you think you're a genius with all the people telling you you are?
他沉默了很久，然后非常平静地说：不，我认为我只是幸运。
And he paused for a long time and then he said, just very matter of factly, he said, no, I think I'm lucky.
接着他谈到了他的‘卵巢彩票’理论，我认为这个观点极其有力，而且无可辩驳。
And then he went into his concept of the ovarian lottery, which I think is incredibly powerful and it's also irrefutable.
如果沃伦·巴菲特出生在另一个时代或不同的地方，他就不会成为沃伦·巴菲特。
If Warren Buffett had been born in another time or a different place, he wouldn't have been Warren Buffett.
如果他早一个世纪出生，甚至早十年或晚十年，他都不可能取得最终的成就。
If he'd been born a century earlier, maybe even a decade earlier or a decade later, he wouldn't have amounted to what he ended up achieving.
如果他出生在不同的地方呢？比如瓦加杜古、布基纳法索，或者缅甸的仰光？
And if he'd been born in a different place, I mean, what if he had been born in Ouagadougou or Kina Faso or Yangon in Myanmar?
我们根本不会听说过他。
We would never have heard of him.
让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的信息。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
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Unchained's collaborative custody model is designed to provide the same security posture as the world's biggest Bitcoin custodians, but for those who prefer to hold their own keys.
了解更多关于 Unchained Signature 的信息，请访问 unchained.com/preston。
Learn more about Unchained signature at unchained.com/preston.
结账时使用代码 Preston 10，即可享受首年 10% 的折扣。
Use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first year.
比特币不仅关乎一生，更关乎世代传承。
Bitcoin isn't just for life, it's for generations.
经营小企业时，雇佣合适的人才至关重要。
When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.
正确的员工能提升您的团队、提高生产力，并将您的业务推向新的高度。
The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity, and take your business to the next level.
但找到这样的人本身就像一份全职工作。
But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.
这就是LinkedIn招聘的用武之地。
That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.
他们的新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。
Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.
无需再翻阅大量简历，它会根据你的标准筛选申请者，并突出显示最匹配的人选，为你节省数小时时间，帮助你在合适的人选出现时快速行动。
Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.
最棒的是，这些优秀的候选人已经都在LinkedIn上。
The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.
事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工，至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。
In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.
一次就招对人。
Hire right the first time.
在linkedin.com/studybill免费发布职位，然后推广它以使用LinkedIn招聘的新AI助手，让寻找顶尖候选人变得更简单、更快速。
Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.
这就是 linkedin.com/studybill，免费发布您的职位。
That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.
条款和条件适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗？
You know what sets the best businesses apart?
正是他们如何利用创新将复杂性转化为增长。
It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.
亚马逊广告正是这样做的，由 AWS AI 驱动。
That's exactly what Amazon Ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.
每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，优化整个价值 310 亿美元的广告生态系统中的广告表现。
Every day, Amazon Ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.
结果是广告活动速度快 30%，并能大规模产生可衡量的业务影响。
The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.
而这就是亚马逊自身推动增长的方式。
And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.
他们的代理式人工智能将营销从资源密集型流程转变为智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，并让营销人员专注于创意与战略。
Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.
亚马逊广告正在证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。
Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.
更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部打磨完善的同一创新蓝图。
And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.
请访问 aws.comai/rstory 了解亚马逊广告的故事。
See the Amazon Ads story at aws.comai/rstory.
网址是 aws.com/ai/rstory。
That's aws.com/ai/rstory.
威廉，好的。
William All right.
回到节目上来。
Back to the show.
威廉，我记得他曾向盖伊·斯皮尔和莫尼什·帕弗雷特讲述过一个故事，那是在2008年左右，他刚和比尔·盖茨从中国旅行回来，当时他们一起参加了一场慈善午餐。
William I remember him telling a story to Guy Spier and Monish Pavreit when he had a charity lunch with them back in, I think, 2008, something like that, where he had just come back from a trip, I think, to China with Bill Gates.
他谈到自己曾看到有人在拉船。
He was talking about how he had seen some guy pulling in the boats.
我想我记得没错，或者至少大致没错，他确实看到过这个人拉船。
I think I'm remembering this correctly or roughly correctly enough that we can get away with it, that he'd seen this guy pulling in some boats.
他说，不管那个人有多聪明，他都不可能做到我所做到的事，因为他根本没出生在我这样的地方。
And he said, That guy, however smart he is, could never have done what I've done because he just wasn't born in the same place.
当时，本·格雷厄姆的书还没有中文版。
Didn't have At that time, Ben Graham's books weren't available in Mandarin.
所以，不仅出生在那个繁荣时期的美国是一种幸运，能够接触到本·格雷厄姆的著作更是具有变革意义。
And so even the good fortune, not just of being born in America at that time when it was booming, but actually having access to Ben Graham was transformative.
我不禁想，我们是否可以深入探讨一下本·格雷厄姆，因为他是投资史上如此关键的人物。
I wonder if we could actually switch to go in greater depth about Ben Graham because he's such a formative figure in the history of investing.
我认为，除了巴菲特之外，没人比你更了解他了，因为我想在2003年，你编辑了《聪明的投资者》的修订版，并添加了评论和更新内容。
I don't think there's anyone other than Buffett who actually knows more about him than you, because I think back in 2003, you edited the revised edition of The Intelligent Investor and you added a commentary and updated it.
你还写了一本关于他其他著作的精彩文集，我非常喜欢。
You also did a really excellent book on a collection of his other writings, which I liked a lot.
你能谈谈格雷厄姆作为一个普通人的一面吗？因为他是一个如此非凡的人物。
I wondered if you could talk a bit about Graham as actually a human being because he was such an extraordinary figure.
记得在你写的那本书的序言中提到，早在他1914年从哥伦比亚大学毕业之前。
Remember reading your introduction in one of those books before he even graduated from Columbia in 1914.
他被邀请去哥伦比亚大学教授英语、数学或哲学。
Think he was invited to teach English, math, or philosophy at Columbia.
我猜如果他愿意，他也能教授古典文学。
And I suspect he could have taught classics as well if he had wanted to.
你能再跟我们讲讲他当时是多么一位杰出的人物吗？
And can you just tell us more about what a towering figure he was?
然后，如果我们能谈谈为什么格雷厄姆至今仍具有相关性？
And then if we could talk a bit about why is Graham still relevant?
投资者现在应该从他身上学习什么？
What should investors be learning from him now?
是的。
Yeah.
格雷厄姆简直极其聪慧。
So Graham was just extraordinarily brilliant.
威廉，你漏掉了一个细节：他16岁就进入哥伦比亚大学，20岁时就被授予了该校三个教职。
One detail you omitted, William, was that he was offered those three positions on the faculty Columbia at age 20 because he was admitted when he was 16.
我特别喜欢的另一个细节是，格雷厄姆15岁时申请入读哥伦比亚大学，而哥伦比亚大学偏偏只有它自己能做出这种事——居然弄丢了他申请材料，否则他几乎肯定能在15岁时就成为大一新生。
And the other detail I love is that Graham applied to matriculate at Columbia when he was 15 and Columbia, as only Columbia could, lost his application because otherwise he almost certainly would have been a college freshman at age 15.
他是一名杰出的学生，当时大学最强的三个院系都希望在他毕业前就聘请他任教。
And he was such a star student that three of the university's strongest departments at the time wanted to hire him to teach before he even graduated.
这让你多少能感受到他的聪慧程度。
So that gives you some sense of his brilliance.
我特别喜欢的关于格雷厄姆的另一些轶事是，他退休后晚年旅行时，据说在拉丁美洲听说了一部由乌拉圭作家德贝内代托（我记不太清名字了）用西班牙语出版的精彩小说。
The other anecdotes I love about Graham are that late in his life after he retired, he was traveling, I guess, in Latin America and he heard about this wonderful novel that was published in Spanish by Uruguayan writer whose name I think is De Benedetto, I think.
于是格雷厄姆自学了西班牙语，并将这部小说翻译了出来。
And so Graham taught himself Spanish and translated the novel.
他还写过一部在百老汇上演的戏剧。
He also wrote a Broadway play that was produced on Broadway.
他拥有几项专利，其中包括一项改进型计算器的专利。
He held several patents, including a patent for an improved calculator.
当他二十一二岁的时候，一篇关于高等微积分的文章发表在《美国数学协会期刊》上。
And when he was 21 or 22, he had an article on advanced calculus published in the Journal of the American Mathematical Association.
因此，格雷厄姆是华尔街见过的最接近文艺复兴式全才的人物。
So Graham was as close to a renaissance man as Wall Street has ever seen.
他的一个爱好是将荷马史诗翻译成拉丁文，将维吉尔的作品翻译成希腊文。
You know, one of his hobbies was translating Homer into Latin and Virgil into Greek.
当他住在法国南部时，他常和别人玩多语言拼字游戏。
And he used to play multilanguage scrabble with people when he lived in the South Of France.
你可以选择任意一种语言组成单词，而格雷厄姆当然会试图将你的单词与他想用的另一种语言的单词交叉连接。
You could make a word in whichever language you chose, and Graham would, of course, try to intersect your word with a word in whatever language he felt like.
我有种感觉，他赢了大多数这样的游戏。
And something tells me he won most of those games.
因此，他极其聪慧，我认为这确实帮助了他。
So he was extraordinarily brilliant and I think that really helped him.
这确实帮助他成为一名投资者。
It really helped him as an investor.
作为一名财经记者，我最难忘的记忆之一——我不会点名，但很多年前，大概是1990年代，我在芝加哥参加晨星投资会议。当天的议程结束后，一群投资组合经理出去吃晚饭，我也跟着去了，我们在芝加哥一家餐厅订了一个包间，我想桌边大概有十几位经理。
One of the most indelible memories I have as a financial reporter, and I'm not gonna name any names, but many years ago, probably in the 1990s, I was at the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, and after the day's sessions, a bunch of portfolio managers went out to dinner I tagged along and we got a private room at some restaurant in Chicago and I would say there were probably a dozen managers around the table.
有一刻，谈话出现了短暂的停顿，我对桌上的每个人说：我有个问题想问大家，我真的很想知道。
And at one point there was sort of a lull in the conversation and I said, I have a question for everybody at the table, I'm really curious.
他们全都沉默了。
And they all went silent.
我明确表示这次谈话是非正式的，不会点名，也不会公开任何人的名字，大家都可以自由畅谈。
I had made it clear we were off the record so nobody would ever get named or anything, we were talking freely.
我说：我想让你们每个人告诉我，你们的爱好是什么。
And I said, I want each of you to tell me what your hobby is.
于是我指向第一位经理，他说：高尔夫。
And so I point to the first manager and he says, Golf.
第二位经理说：高尔夫。
Second manager says, Golf.
第三个经理说：是啊，我喜欢高尔夫。
Third manager says, Yeah, I like golf.
于是大家依次轮了一圈，当所有人都说了高尔夫之后，最后一位男士说：我的爱好是网球。
And around the table it went and finally the last guy after everyone had named golf, the last guy said, my hobby is tennis.
所以我的观点是，使格雷厄姆如此出色的部分原因在于他多才多艺。
And so my point is that what made Graham, part of what made Graham so great was that he was multidimensional.
大多数专业投资经理都是非常枯燥的人，他们非常努力地工作，几乎只想着投资。
Most professional portfolio managers are extremely dull people, they work very hard, they sort of do nothing but think about investing.
他们中的许多人整天、整夜、整个周末都在思考投资。
A lot of them think about investing all day long, all night long, all weekend long.
彼得·林奇曾经吹嘘说，他会把一公文包的文件带回家，整个周末都在阅读10-K和10-Q报表，我个人觉得这非常可信。
Peter Lynch used to brag about taking a briefcase of papers home and spending his weekend reading 10 Ks and 10 Qs and I personally find that very credible.
格雷厄姆可不是这样的。
Graham wasn't like that.
当格雷厄姆还健在时，他虽然已不再年轻，但大约六十岁时，他选择退休，不再管理专业投资组合，而是决定去读书、写书，做自己真正喜欢的事情。
When Graham was still he wasn't a young man but he was not an old man when he was about 60, he quit and he stopped running professional portfolios and he just decided he would go read books and write books and do the kinds of things he enjoyed.
拥有
Having a
一个充满浪漫的时刻。
moment a lot of romance involved as well.
我的意思是，这正是其中一个引人入胜的
I mean, that's that's one of the fascinating
迷人之处。
fascinating aspects.
当他年轻一点的时候，我想。
When he was a little younger, I think.
但
But
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我认为在你的一本书里有个脚注，提到格雷厄姆对他的前三任妻子公然不忠。
I mean, there's a footnote, I think, in one in one of your books where you talk about Graham being flagrantly unfaithful to his first three wives.
我觉得这句话里有很多可以深入挖掘的地方。
And I felt like there's a lot you could unpack from that sentence.
这句话里有很多未明说的内容。
There's a lot not said in that sentence.
在其他场合，我曾称格雷厄姆为华尔街的威尔·张伯伦。
Well, in other contexts, I have called Graham the, Will Chamberlain of Wall Street.
他非常信奉自由恋爱。
He was a big believer in free love.
我们就这么说吧。
Let's put it that way.
他风流成性。
He got around the old boy.
威廉·格雷厄姆，但与此同时，在对待投资业务客户的方式上，他又堪称正直的典范。
William And yet at the same time was also a kind of model of integrity when it came to the way that he treated his clients in the investment business.
他真是个引人入胜的人物，对吧？
He's a fascinating character, right?
那里有一种复杂性和矛盾性。
There's a complexity and a contradiction there.
怀疑那种对一比三十的痴迷。
Suspect some of that obsession one:thirty with
正直、公平，以及作为教师分享智慧的特质，很大程度上被巴菲特继承了。
integrity and fairness and also being a teacher and sharing your wisdom was very much inherited by Buffett.
巴菲特也从格雷厄姆那里复制了合伙制的结构，建立了自己的有限合伙企业。
Buffett also cloned that structure of the partnership from Graham with his limited partnerships.
当你看到像莫尼什·帕布里、尼克·斯利普、乔什·塔拉索夫、布莱恩·劳伦斯这些人时，很有趣，他们都复制了巴菲特从格雷厄姆那里继承的结构。
It's interesting when you see people like Monish Pabri and Nick Sleep and Josh Tarasoff, all of these guys, Brian Lawrence, they all have cloned the structure basically that Buffett cloned from Graham.
这很公平，因为这使你的利益与股东的利益保持一致，你不会在表现不佳时只是榨取他们的费用。
That's fair because it aligns your interest with your shareholders' interest because you're not just gouging them and getting fees when you don't perform.
这种对正直的强调，我觉得很有趣。
That's interesting, that emphasis on integrity, I think.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这完全正确。
I think that's totally right.
这确实既有趣又复杂。
And it is interesting and complicated.
我的意思是，格雷厄姆并不是那种你会向他寻求感情建议的人，本·格雷厄姆。
I mean, Graham was not the person you would want to take relationship advice from Ben Graham.
我认为所有已婚人士，或者任何有伴侣、配偶或重要他人的人，都应该庆幸自己的伴侣不会像本·格雷厄姆那样行事。
I think all married people or anyone anyone who has a partner or spouse or significant other should be very glad if their partner doesn't act like Ben Graham.
然而，任何投资管理公司的客户都希望他们的基金经理能完全像格雷厄姆那样行事。
However, anybody who's a client of a money management firm would portfolio want manager to act exactly like Graham.
他成功地将这些方面分隔开来。
And he succeeded in compartmentalizing that.
你知道，也许在某种奇怪的方式上，这反而帮了他。
You know, maybe it even in some odd way, maybe it helped him.
也许他在生活中某一方面的些许混乱和打破规则，反而帮助他在另一方面更好地遵守规则。
Maybe being a little disorderly and breaking the rules in one part of his life helped him observe the rules in the other.
对此进行推测很有趣。
It's interesting to speculate about it.
我从来没有这样想过。
I've never really thought about it that way.
我写过关于格雷厄姆和理查德·怀斯曼的《更快乐》一书，讲述了他的早年生活，相当引人入胜。
I wrote about Graham and Richard Wiser Happier about his early life, which is kind of fascinating.
比如，他出身于一个富裕家庭，我认为他们从欧洲进口瓷器。
Like, he came from this prosperous family that I think imported porcelain from Europe.
他父亲在35岁左右去世，母亲成了寡妇，独自抚养三个孩子。
His father died at the age of about 35 and the mother was widowed and left with three kids to bring up.
生意破产后，她把家改成了寄宿公寓，但失败了。
The business collapsed and she ends up turning that home into a boarding house, which failed.
然后她借钱，却在1907年的金融恐慌中血本无归。
Then she borrows money, gets wiped out in the panic of nineteen oh seven.
于是，格雷厄姆没有像过去富裕时那样，有厨师、女仆和家庭教师陪伴长大，而是亲眼目睹家人被迫在公开拍卖中变卖所有财产，从此再也未能从这种公开的耻辱中恢复过来。
And then Graham grows up, instead of growing up with a cook and a maid and a governess, he'd always had when they were this prosperous family when his dad was alive, sees the family actually forced to sell its possessions in a public auction and never really recovered from that kind of public disgrace.
威廉然后经历了第一次世界大战、大萧条和1929年的股市崩盘，我认为从1929年到1932年，他损失了大约70%的财富，之后又经历了第二次世界大战。
William And then lives through World War I, the Great Depression, the crash of 'twenty nine, where I think from 1929 to 'thirty two, he lost something like 70% of his money, and then lives through World War II.
他来自一个犹太家庭，原名本杰明·格罗斯鲍姆，你知道，他们来自波兰，和你我的家族一样，都是作为犹太难民迁徙而来的。
And he's from a Jewish family who was born Benjamin Grossbaum, as you know, and had come from Poland, same sort of area that your family and mine had come from as refugee Jews.
让我感到着迷的是，他的整个投资理念都建立在‘安全边际’这个概念之上。
What's fascinating to me is that his entire investment credo is built on this idea of the margin of safety.
这是一个年轻人，其童年可以说是混乱的极致——作为一个来自波兰的犹太人，如果我没记错的话，他的祖父可能是华沙的首席拉比。
Here's a guy whose youth is in a sense the epitome of chaos, That even as a Jewish guy coming from Poland, if I remember rightly, think his grandfather may have been the chief rabbi of Warsaw.
这对我来说特别有趣，因为我的背景和你的背景很相似，对吧？
So this is kind of fascinating to me because my background is similar and your background is similar, right?
我的家族来自俄罗斯、波兰和乌克兰。
My family came from Russia, Poland and Ukraine.
我想你的家族来自乌克兰。
Yours, I think, came from Ukraine.
我记得你祖父是来自乌克兰的。
I remember your grandfather was from Ukraine.
我想知道你能否谈谈这种联系——这种个人混乱与他所秉持的、必须找到一种能保护自己免受混乱影响的投资方式之间的关联。
And I'm wondering if you could talk about that connection, the link between this kind of personal chaos and his sense that you have to find a way of investing that protects you against chaos.
是的。
Yeah.
威廉，这是一个非常敏锐的观察。
That's a that's such a good observation, William.
格雷厄姆人生故事中让我印象最深的一件事是，他还很小的时候，父亲已经去世，母亲不得不去银行兑现一张支票。
The anecdote that stands out for me from Graham's life story is when he was a very small child, this was after his dad had died, his mother had to cash a check at the bank.
我想她让格雷厄姆去银行办理。
I think she asked Graham to take it to the bank.
我记不清是兑现支票还是取款了，但无论如何，格雷厄姆必须去柜台，而柜员当着整个银行大厅的面大声问：‘格雷厄姆太太有这笔钱的信用吗？’
I forget whether it was to cash a check or make a withdrawal, but in any case, Graham had to go to the teller and the teller said out loud sort of to the bank floor, is missus Graham good for this amount?
这件事深深印在了他心里。
And it just stuck with him.
那笔钱可能只有五美元左右，当然在当时比现在值钱得多，但总体来说也不算多。
It was maybe $5 or something like that, which of course in those days was a lot more than it is today, but it still wasn't much.
我认为格雷厄姆因失去而受到创伤。
And I think he was Graham was traumatized by loss.
在他的多本书籍和文章中，他都有这样的表达：未来是需要防范的东西。
And in several of his books and articles, he has this expression, he says the future is something to be guarded against.
而这正是人们对格雷厄姆最大的批评。
And you know, this is the biggest knock on Graham.
这是如今许多人对他的批评，这种批评已经持续了二十年。
It's the criticism so many people make of him today and have been making for twenty years.
我认为这种批评是有道理的，查理·芒格也持同样的观点。
And I think it's valid, Charlie Munger makes the same point.
我第一次采访芒格时，他就告诉我，格雷厄姆害怕大萧条重演，总认为下一次大萧条就在眼前，他唯一关心的就是如何生存下去。
You know, one of the first times I interviewed Munger, he said to me Graham was afraid that the depression would repeat and he always saw another depression around the corner and all he cared about was surviving that.
在《聪明的投资者》中，他谈到了保护与预测之间的区别。
And in The Intelligent Investor, he talks about the difference between protection and projection.
实际上，成长型股票和成长型投资者从事的是预测的生意。
And effectively growth stocks, growth investors are in the projection business.
他们试图将一段辉煌的增长趋势外推至未来，这是在做预测。
They're trying to extrapolate on a fabulous line of growth into the future, they're projecting it.
而格雷厄姆关注的是保护，他担心下行风险，因为他亲身经历过并深深感受到了这些痛苦。
And Graham cares about protecting, he's worried about the downside and that's because he really suffered it and he really felt it.
巴菲特和芒格也都经历过大萧条，但他们比格雷厄姆年轻得多，他们看到的是国家强劲复苏。
And both Buffett and Munger went through the great depression but they were much younger than Graham and they saw the country come roaring back.
对格雷厄姆而言，他经历过更多剧烈的经济周期，当然，他在美联储成立时还是一名年轻人。
To Graham, he had been through many more severe cycles and of course he was a young adult when the federal reserve was created.
因此，他亲身经历了1907年的金融恐慌，当时没有最后贷款人，金融体系能否存活尚不明确。
So he had lived through the panic of nineteen oh seven when there was no lender of last resort and it wasn't clear if the financial system would survive.
因此，他始终痴迷于防范下行风险并加以保护。
So he was obsessed with the downside and protecting against it.
如果我今天重写这本书，这将是我要纠结的核心问题：我们如何调和保护的必要性与预测的重要性？
And if I were revising the book today, that would be the main issue that I would be struggling with, which is how do we reconcile the need for protection with the importance of projection?
我的意思是，我们投资不是为了今天，而是为了明天。
I mean, we're not investing for today, we're investing for tomorrow.
如果你不进行预测，只是一味地保护，那么你明天如何繁荣呢？
And if you don't project, if all you do is protect, then how will you prosper tomorrow?
我认为这是对格雷厄姆方法的一个合理批评。
And I think that's a valid criticism of of Graham's approach.
这是一个深刻的难题。
It's a profound conundrum.
我记得有一次有了顿悟，当时霍华德·马克斯——他非常擅长阐述这些难题——说：在某个时刻，规避风险就变成了规避回报。
I remember having a revelation at one point when Howard Marx, who's great at articulating these conundrums said, At a certain point, risk avoidance becomes return avoidance.
我有一种对未来的恐惧和焦虑，我怀疑这种情绪在某种程度上是遗传的，来自我们家族经历的创伤，比如逃离俄罗斯和波兰，以及
And I have that kind of fearfulness and anxiety about the future that I suspect to some degree is an inherited thing thirty:fifty from our families having gone through the trauma of having fled from Russia and Poland and the
大屠杀之类的事件。
Holocaust and the like.
我记得曾和查克·阿克雷谈过这个问题，说我有点悲观。
And I remember talking to Chuck Akrae about this at one point saying that I'm kind of a pessimist.
他回答说：祝你好运。
He's like, Good luck with that.
他当时说：‘作为股票投资者，你必须是个乐观主义者。’
He was like, Look, as an investor in stocks, you need to be an optimist.
我看你也对这一点感到矛盾，对吧？
I see you conflicted about this as well, right?
因为你曾写过，我认为，不确定性是人类生活和经济活动最根本的事实。
Because you've written, I think, that uncertainty is the most fundamental fact about human life and economic activity.
所以从性格上来说，我认为你更倾向于站在我和本·格雷厄姆这一边，而不是查克·阿克雷那一边。
So I think you temperamentally, in some ways, are on my side and Ben Graham's side more than on Chuck Akre's side temperamentally.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，没错，我确实是个爱担心的人，但我也很乐观。
I mean, sure, I'm I'm a worrier, but I also am an optimist.
我的一生中，还有这个世界上，我见过太多美好的事情发生，不可能成为一个悲观主义者。
I mean, I've seen too many good things happen in my own life and frankly in the world's life to be a pessimist.
我忘了是谁说的了。
I mean, I forget who it was.
一位以色列总理自然说过，作为一个现实主义者，你必须相信奇迹。
An Israeli prime minister, naturally, said to be a realist, you have to believe in miracles.
我想可能是本-古里安。
I think it was it might have been Ben Gurion.
是的。
Yeah.
要么是本-古里安，要么是果尔达·梅厄，这两个人中的一个。
Either Ben Gurion or Golda Meir, one of those two.
是的。
Yeah.
这确实有点道理。
And it's kind of true.
我的意思是，回想十年前，甚至更久以前，谁能想到云计算和水力压裂技术会出现呢？
I mean, you think back a decade ago, who would have expected well, a little more than a decade, but who would have expected, you know, cloud computing and fracking?
你知道，美国已经实现了能源独立。
You know, The US is energy independent.
十五年前，这看起来是不可能的。
That seemed impossible fifteen years ago.
尽管很多新闻标题都很负面和可怕，但进步并没有停止。
And progress doesn't stop as negative and horrible as a lot of the headlines are.
尽管我非常担忧——我认为任何有思想的人都必须担忧我们社会的两极分化、对专业知识日益增长的怨恨和不信任，以及政治光谱两端彼此之间的愤怒——但我真的不知道你怎么能真正成为一个悲观主义者。
And as worried as I am, as I think any thinking person has to be about the polarization in our society and the rising resentment and distrust of expertise and the anger across the political spectrum at the other side, I just don't know how I don't know how you can really be a pessimist.
是的。
Yeah.
我倾向于认为，通过与许多比我更懂这些事的优秀投资者交谈，我感觉到这是一种总体向上的趋势，只是被这些巨大的动荡时期所打断。
I tend to feel, having talked to a lot of great investors who are smarter about this stuff than I am, that it's a kind of general upward trajectory that's interrupted by these periods of tremendous disruption.
我最近采访雷·达利奥时，觉得他的观点就是这样。
I think that was Ray Dalio's view when I interviewed him recently.
如果你从长远来看生产率、寿命、人类寿命和生活质量的变化。
If you look at the very long term picture of productivity, longevity, human lifespan, quality of life.
很难不抱乐观态度，但确实存在这些动荡时期。
It's hard not to be optimistic, but there are these periods of disruption.
所以在我看来，良好投资的关键之一是为自己做好生存的准备。
So it seems to me that part of the key to investing well is to set yourself up for survival.
我记得你曾经对彼得·伯恩斯坦进行过一次精彩的采访，他谈到了对事情可能严重出错的深刻认识。
I remember you having great interview with Peter Bernstein, where he talked about just this recognition of just how badly things can get wrong.
你问他投资中最大的错误是什么。
You asked him about the biggest mistake that you can make in investing.
你能谈谈从那次采访中学到了什么吗？
Can you talk about what you learned from that?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，彼得说，我认为他说过，生存是通往财富的唯一途径。
I mean, what Peter said was that I think he said survival is the only path to wealth.
对于不了解他的人，彼得是一位非凡的人物。
And for anybody who doesn't know, I mean, Peter was just this extraordinary figure.
他去世时已年过九十，曾在华尔街工作了六十多年。
I mean, he was over over 90 when he died, and he worked on Wall Street for over sixty years.
他是一位经济学家、投资组合经理，也是我所见过的最精通投资管理行业的观察者。
He was an economist, a portfolio manager, and probably the most sophisticated observer of the investment management business I've ever come across.
他写了一本名为《对抗上帝：风险的历史》的精彩著作，这是伟大的书籍之一，我突然意识到我有一本他亲笔题赠给我的签名版。
And wrote beautiful book called Against the Gods, a History of Risk, which is one of the great books, which I somehow I I realized I have a signed copy that he's inscribed to me.
我完全不记得他是否把这本书送给了我。
I have no recollection at all of whether he gave it to me.
这就是中年的乐趣，我真不记得自己是否见过他。
This is the joy of middle ages, and I truly can't remember if I even met him.
是的。
Yeah.
那你得好好保留它。
Well, you'll have to hang on to that.
但确实如此，因为彼得为我们提供了一座桥梁，解决了你提出的关于格雷厄姆的难题——即保护与预测之间的桥梁。
But it's really true because Peter is giving us the bridge that sort of solves this conundrum that you raised with Graham, the bridge between protection and projection.
对吧？
Right?
如果你只做预测，很可能无法生存。
Which is if all you do is project, you may well not survive.
如果你只做保护，那么你可能缺乏足够的增长，无法在长期内真正繁荣。
And if all you do is protect, then you may not have enough growth to really thrive over the long term.
所以你需要两者兼顾，既要保护，也要保护你的下行风险，确保有安全边际，但同时也要确保没有过度限制你的上行空间。
So you need to do both, you need to protect, you need to protect your downside, you need to have that margin of safety but you also have to ensure that you haven't truncated your upside too much.
他可能在20世纪60年代末就退出了市场，之后再也没有回来，他可能比实际需要的更加保守。
And got out of the market in, I don't know, the late 1960s or something and never really got back He was probably a lot more conservative than he needed to be.
另一方面，一旦你赢了游戏，就该停止玩了，这句话非常精彩。
On the other hand, once you have, there's that wonderful expression, once you win the game, stop playing.
他已经拥有了所需或想要的所有财富，那他还为什么要拿它去冒险呢？
He had all the money he needed or wanted, so what would he put it at risk for?
我认为，从格雷厄姆对保护的强调中，我们每个人能汲取的最重要原则是：不要承担你不需要承担的风险。
I think the single most important principle any of us can take from Graham's emphasis on protection is, you know, don't take a risk you don't need to take.
无论你是专业投资经理，还是普通个人投资者，这一点都成立。
I mean, that's true if you're a professional portfolio manager, it's true if you're just an individual investor.
你应该承担明智的风险，这意味着这些是你必须承担且理解的风险。
You should take intelligent risks, which means they are risks you need to take and you understand.
是的。
Yeah.
在我看来，专注于灾难规避是如此核心。
It seems to me that focus on just catastrophe avoidance is so central.
不断问自己：如果我错了，会有什么后果？
Just constantly asking yourself, what's the consequence if I'm wrong?
伯恩斯坦也经常谈到这一点，对吧？
And that was something Bernstein talked about a lot as well, right?
他说的是后果。
That it was consequences.
他曾说过，后果比概率重要得多。
He said something about consequences matter much more than probabilities.
彼得是帕斯卡赌注的狂热支持者。
I mean, Peter was a huge fan of Pascal's wager.
对于不知道的人，伟大的神学家和哲学家帕斯卡提出了一个思想实验，这就是著名的帕斯卡赌注，其基本观点是：上帝存在或不存在，你面临的选择是过一种有道德的生活还是没有道德的生活。
And for anybody who doesn't know, you know, the great theologian and philosopher Pascal proposed this thought experiment, which has become known as Pascal's wager and the basic idea is either God exists or he doesn't, you have a choice between living an ethical life or not.
如果你过一种不道德的生活，你在做这些事时会享受很多乐趣。
If you live an immoral life, you'll have a lot of fun while you're doing it.
而如果你过一种有道德的生活，可能在你活着的时候乐趣会少一些。
And if you live a moral life, it probably won't be as much fun while you're living it.
所以你本质上是在打赌：上帝存在还是不存在？
So you're basically wagering, does God exist or doesn't he?
如果上帝存在，那么过有道德生活的人不会失去任何东西，但不道德的人将陷入大麻烦。
And if God exists, then you don't lose anything as the person who lived the moral life, but the immoral person is in a lot of trouble.
因此，彼得非常强调用帕斯卡赌注的视角来看待问题，而这与大多数人投资时的思维方式并不相同。
And so Peter really emphasized framing things in terms of Pascal's wager, which is not so much the way most people think when they invest.
大多数人想的是：如果我错了，我会赚多少？
Most people think, how much am I gonna make if I'm right?
但彼得的观点是，你还需要问自己：如果我错了，我会损失多少？
But Peter's point is you also need to ask, how much am I gonna lose if I'm wrong?
犯错带来的痛苦远大于犯对时的喜悦。
And it hurts a lot more to be wrong than it feels good to be right.
一旦犯错，如果错得太离谱，就可能让你永久退出游戏。
And being wrong once, if you're too wrong, can take you out of the game permanently.
我的意思是，如果你被彻底击垮，那就完了。
I mean, if you get wiped out, you're done.
威廉，你曾说过，我认为你曾经用过这样一个说法：分散投资组合是金融领域最接近稳赢的方案。
William And you've said, I think the phrase you used at one point was that a diversified portfolio is the closest thing to a sure thing in all of finance.
但最终，除了不投资之外（而不投资也会因通货膨胀等原因导致不佳的结果），最好的保险策略就是分散投资。
But ultimately, the best insurance policy other than not investing, which doesn't lead to a great outcome either with inflation and the like, that the best insurance policy is to diversify.
这是否也是我们从格雷厄姆这样的人物身上学到的最简单、最基本却永恒的教训之一？他可能比巴菲特更加分散投资？
Is that also one of the, just the most simple and basic, but timeless lessons that we get from one:thirty someone like Graham, who was probably much more diversified than Buffett?
是的，没错。
Yeah, correct.
有意思的是，这正是巴菲特和芒格与格雷厄姆真正产生分歧的另一个领域。
I mean, it's kind of interesting, this is another area where Buffett and Munger really diverged from Graham.
格雷厄姆投资于证券类别。
Graham invested in categories of security.
如果铁路股票便宜，他会买入所有便宜的铁路股票。
If railroad stocks were cheap, he would just buy every railroad stock that was cheap.
他不会只买一只，而是会买上十只。
He wouldn't buy one, he would buy dozen.
如果他认为公用事业股便宜，他会买入所有能找到的便宜的公用事业股。
If he thought utilities were cheap, he would buy every utility he could find that was cheap.
格雷厄姆非常相信分散投资，而巴菲特和芒格则不然。
Graham was a huge believer in diversification and Buffett and Munger are not.
我认为正确的理解方式是：分散投资与你拥有 superior knowledge 且真正正确的可能性成反比。
And I think the right way to think about it is that diversification is inverse to the likelihood that you have superior knowledge and you're actually right.
因此，你对自己所做的事情越有信心，越确信自己在做别人没做的事，并且下行风险与上行收益之间存在不对称性，你就越应该将资金集中投入该资产。
So the more sure you are that you know what you're doing, that you're doing something that not everybody else is and there's an asymmetry between the downside and the upside, the more you should put in that asset.
优秀的投资者往往会过度集中投资，因为作为积极投资者，他们感觉或通过经验告诉自己应该集中持仓。
And great investors will tend to be under diversified, great active investors because they feel or their experience tells them that they should concentrate.
问题是，人们并不擅长评估自己信心信号的有效性。
The problem with that is that people aren't very good at assessing how valid their signals of confidence are.
而过度自信是人类正常行为的一部分。
And it's part of normal human behavior to be overconfident.
如果你对自己过度集中的领域过于自信，长期来看结果很可能不会很有利。
And if you're overconfident about the things you're over concentrating in, the result is not likely to be be very accretive in the long run.
威廉，是的。
William Yeah.
我记得有一次，大约在2000年到2001年，九一一事件后市场一片惨淡，当时比尔·米勒已经买入了亚马逊15%的股份，我跟他说过这件事。
I remember once saying to Bill Miller when he was I think he had bought 15% of Amazon, this is back in 2000, 2001, and everything was going to hell in the market after nineeleven.
那时我亲眼看着他投入了数亿美元进行投资。
I was with him while he was investing hundreds of millions of dollars.
有一刻我对他说：天啊，你得有三十比五十那么大的胆量才行。
And I said to him at one point, God, you got to have thirty:fifty so much
你敢做你做的事，真是需要极大的胆量。
balls to do what you do.
他说：‘是的，我也得是对的。’
He said, Yeah, I've also got to be right.
那是其中一个时刻，你心想：‘哦，对啊。’
And it was one of those moments where you were like, Oh, yeah.
你在投资中听到的许多真理都如此简单。
It's like so many of the truths that you hear in investing are so simple.
这种对生存的重视，对多元化的重视，对正确的重视，对长期耐心的重视。
This emphasis on survival, this emphasis on diversification, this emphasis on being right, this emphasis on being long term patient.
它们都如此陈词滥调，以至于我们视而不见，不认真对待。
They're all so platitudinous that our eyes glaze over and we don't take them seriously.
是的，如果你要高度集中于少数几个头寸，那你必须非常聪明且正确。
Yeah, if you are going to concentrate really heavily in a few positions, you better be really smart and right.
是的。
Yeah.
值得向人们强调一下后续部分。
And it's worth emphasizing for people the sequel.
对吧？
Right?
因为比尔某种程度上是在期待着未来。
Because Bill was almost looking forward in a way.
他几乎是前瞻性的，因为他七八年后在金融领域又做了同样的事，但这次他错了。
He was almost looking ahead because he did the same thing seven or eight years later with financials and he wasn't right.
然后是续集的续集，那就是他后来又对比特币和亚马逊做了同样的事，这次他做对了。
And then the sequel to the sequel, which is then he did the same thing with Bitcoin and Amazon and was right.
所以我认为，当我观察这些伟大的投资者时，最近我也在想比尔·阿克曼，我前几天在杂志上读到，他在新冠疫情引发的市场崩盘和随后的复苏中赚了40亿美元。
So I think to some extent when I look at these great investors, I was thinking about this recently with Bill Ackman as well, where I was reading in the journal the other day about how he just made $4,000,000,000 during the COVID meltdown and then the recovery.
我只是在想，其中一个关键就是忠于自己。
I was just thinking one of the keys is just to be true to themselves.
要想在任何事情上做到非凡，某种程度上必须拥抱自己的疯狂。
Have to embrace your own form of craziness to some extent to be extraordinary at anything.
你必须以符合你独特才华与疯狂的方式去玩游戏。
You have to play the game in a way that suits your particular form of brilliance and craziness.
这对你有共鸣吗？
Does that resonate for you?
是的，确实有。
Yeah, it does.
我认为，所有优秀的专业人士面临的挑战，都是在‘自认具备真正技能’和‘保持谦逊’之间的拉扯。
And I think, you know, I think the challenge all great professionals face is this push and pull between the sense you have that you are exerting actual skill and the need for humility.
我的意思是，每当我听到有人谈论谦逊，我就想吐。
I mean, whenever I hear anyone talk about being humble, I just, I mean, I wanna throw up.
我的意思是，如果你在谈论自己的谦逊，那你根本就没有谦逊。
I mean, it's like if you're talking about your own humility, then you don't have any.
几年前，我确实和一个朋友聊过，我当时在帮他写一本还没出版的回忆录。
I literally, Jason, had a conversation a few years ago where I was talking with a guy I was friends with who I was helping with a memoir that hasn't been published.
他是一位亿万富翁艺术收藏家。
He's a multi billionaire art collector.
我当时在谈一些人提到的关于谦逊和虚荣之类的话题。
And I was talking about someone had said something about humility and vanity and the like.
他说：‘没有人比我更谦逊了。’
And he said, No one is more humble than I am.
我忍不住大笑，以为他在开玩笑。
And I burst out laughing and thought he was joking.
但后来我意识到，不是的。
And then I realized, no.
不是的。
No.
他是认真的。
He's totally serious.
这位亿万富翁居然说，没有人比我更谦逊了。
Here is this multibillionaire saying nobody is more humble than I am.
他竟然在夸耀自己的谦逊。
Boasting about his humility.
这真是太妙了。
Was just wonderful.
对。
Right.
我最擅长谦虚了。
I'm the best at being humble.
嗯。
Yeah.
看看我。
Look at me.
我认为关键是，如果你不认为自己擅长某件事，你就不可能真正擅长它。
I think the key is that combination of you can't be good at something if you don't think you're good at it.
如果你作为一名专业投资者多年，并且有着成功的业绩记录，那么你每天走进办公室时，不可能会说：‘天啊，我接下来又要搞砸什么？’
And if you've been a professional investor for years and you have a successful track record, it's sort of inconceivable that you would, you don't come into the office each day and saying, oh God, what am I gonna screw up next?
你走进办公室，会有一种施展技能、展示能力、实力和知识的感觉。
You come in, you have a sense of exerting your skill and demonstrating your power and your facility and your knowledge.
如果没有这种感觉，你就迷失了。
And without that, you'd be lost.
另一方面，你也不能让自负冲昏头脑。
On the other hand, you can't let it go to your head.
我认为，最终解决这个问题的唯一方式是悖论，对吧？
And there's ultimately I think humility, the only way to resolve it is with paradox, right?
我的意思是，有一个很美妙的说法，我觉得这其实出自《塔木德》，它说真正健康的人拥有灵魂却浑然不觉。
I mean, there's a wonderful expression, I think it's somewhere in the Talmud actually, that says the truly healthy man has a soul without knowing it.
就是类似这样的意思。
And it's something like that.
你希望保持谦逊，并努力追求谦逊，但你并不真的期望自己能达成它，因为如果你真以为自己做到了，那你就会变成刚才描述的那种人。
It's that you want to be humble and you seek to be humble but you don't really expect to achieve it because if you did, if you did expect it, you would end up sounding like the person you were just describing.
让我们稍微回溯一下之前讨论的巴菲特，巴菲特显然从格雷厄姆那里学到了很多，格雷厄姆对他产生了深远影响。
To go back a bit to what we were talking about before with Buffett, Buffett obviously learned immensely from Graham and Graham had a profound impact on him.
但在很多方面，学生远远超越了老师。
But in many ways, the student far surpassed the teacher.
巴菲特已经成为一位更伟大的投资者，我推测，也无疑是一位更富有的投资者。
Buffett has become a much greater investor, I suspect, certainly a much richer investor.
你多次采访过巴菲特。
You've interviewed Buffett multiple times.
我想知道，第一，你能否谈谈那次经历对你来说是什么样的，你从中获得了什么。
And I wondered, A, if you could give us a sense of what that experience was like for you, what you took away from it.
但你也能否跟我们谈谈巴菲特的情感特质，这似乎至关重要，因为在我看来，他在情感或性格上确实比格雷厄姆更有优势。
But also if you could talk to us about Buffett's emotional makeup, which seems absolutely critical because it seems to me that he he does have an emotional or temperamental advantage over Graham.
我记得你曾经对我说过，你认为巴菲特是情感上相反的，如果我没记错的话。
And I remember you once saying to me that that you regarded Buffett as inversely emotional, if I'm quoting you correctly.
你能稍微谈谈这一点吗？
Could you talk about that a a little bit?
我第一次见到巴菲特是在2003年7月，正如我前面提到的。
The first time I ever met Buffett, which as I think I mentioned earlier was in July 2003.
让我印象最深的是他的温暖与同理心，你感觉他唯一想交谈的人就是你。
What really struck me about him was his warmth and empathy and it really feels as if you're the only person he wants to talk to.
他极其擅长将注意力完全集中在你这个人身上。
He is incredibly good at focusing his attention on you as a person.
他问我的问题至少和我问他的一样多，而且都是非常有趣的问题，更多是关于他的成长背景和个人发展。
And he asked me at least as many questions about myself as I asked him and very interesting questions and more about his background and development as a person.
我意识到，这种特质是他经过数十年不懈、想必极其艰苦的努力后才获得的。
I realized that came to him after decades of relentless, what must have been brutal effort.
因为如果你读过艾丽斯·施罗德写的巴菲特传记，就会知道他年轻时非常害羞，几乎到了社交瘫痪的地步，连跟人说话都做不到。
Because if you read the Alice Schroeder biography of Buffett, he was so shy when he was young that he was almost literally socially paralyzed, he couldn't speak to people.
于是，他通过戴尔·卡耐基的课程，通过自律和努力，重塑了自己，变成了他想成为的那种人。
So he, through Dale Carnegie courses, through just discipline and effort, he remade himself into the kind of person he wanted to be.
我们当中有几个人认识谁完成了如此彻底的自我转变？
And how many people do any of us know who have completed a self transformation like that?
这简直就像一个人——我知道大多数酗酒者永远不会用这个词——就像一个戒酒成功的人。
It's almost like someone who, I know most alcoholics would never use this term, it's almost like someone who's a recovered alcoholic.
他不再想成为过去的自己，而是变成了一个完全不同的人。
He didn't want to be the person he had been and he became somebody entirely different.
我认为，他在日常工作中也运用了这种情感自律和钢铁般的意志，而我们大多数人可能都做不到这一点。
And I think he's applied that kind of emotional discipline and steely power to his day job as well in a way that most of us probably aren't capable of doing.
你知道吗，我认识的每一个投资者，如果你问他们：如果股市下跌10%，你会买入更多股票吗？
You know, every investor I've ever met, if you say to them, you know, will you buy more stocks if the stock market goes down 10%?
我从未遇到过任何人会说：不，我不会这么做。
I've never met anybody who would say, no, I wouldn't do that.
但当股市下跌10%时，这恰恰是因为很多人正在抛售。
But when the stock market goes down 10%, it's gone down 10% because a lot of people were selling.
所以，这说明了什么？
So I mean, what does that tell you?
当股市下跌10%时，巴菲特会坐起来开始关注，因为他会想：哦，这变得有意思了。
And when the stock market goes down 10%, Buffett sits up and he starts looking because he says, oh, this is getting interesting.
股市跌得越多，他就越感兴趣，这就是我用‘逆情绪’这个词的原因。
And the more it goes down, the more interested he gets and that's why I use that term inversely emotional.
当我跟他讨论时，他说：是的，没错。
And when I've discussed it with him, he says, yes, that's correct.
我会把别人的情绪当作自己行动的信号。
I use other people's emotion as a cue for my own.
当其他人充满热情时，我会变得悲观。
And when other people are enthusiastic, I become pessimistic.
当他们消极时，我会变得积极。
And when they're negative, I become positive.
当你写你的书《你的钱和你的心理》时，我认为它是在2007年出版的，是最早关于神经经济学的书籍之一。
When you wrote your book, Your Money and Your Mind, which I think came out in 2007, which was one of the first books about neuroeconomics.
大脑中的金钱。
Money in Your Brain.
抱歉，是《你的钱在大脑中》。
Sorry, Your Money in Your Brain.
你展示了我们的大脑是如何出错的，就像我刚才做的那样，尤其是在我们做金钱决策时。
And you were showing how our brains mess up as I just did, particularly when we're making decisions around money.
我记得前几天重读这本书时，不得不提到，我仍然保留着你多年前给我的那本提前版样书。
And I remember I was rereading it the other day and having to say I still have the advanced copy from before it came out that you gave me all those years ago.
你谈到，当你在市场中赚钱时，比如，这就像处于兴奋状态，因为它在神经层面产生类似的效果。
And you were talking about how when you're making money in the market, for example, it's like being high in that it has basically the same neural effect.
作为你研究的一部分，我记得你曾在各种MRI机器中接受脑部扫描，并参与了不同研究实验室的多项实验。
And as part of your research, I remember you had your brain scanned in various MRI machines and took part in various experiments in different research laboratories.
我想知道，关于你自己的大脑，有什么发现让你感到惊讶，让你意识到‘我不是巴菲特’？
And I'm wondering what you learned about your own brain that surprised you, that made you think, yeah, I'm not Buffett.
我不是芒格。
I'm not Munger.
我不是无情绪的。
I'm not unemotional.
这些才是潜意识中驱动我决策的力量，而我甚至从未意识到它们在影响我的选择。
Or these are the forces that are unconsciously driving my decisions that I wasn't even aware were driving my decisions.
我认为我参与过的最引人注目的实验是在埃默里大学进行的。
I think the most remarkable experiment I participated in was at Emory University.
我觉得这个实验太复杂，难以在这里详细描述，但简而言之，让我震惊的是，我面对一个选择问题，比如A或B，每个选择都伴随着相应的奖励。
And I think it's a little too complicated to describe here, but to boil it down to the essence, what was astounding to me is I was presented with a problem, like a choice problem, sort of A or B, and there was reward associated with the choices.
我躺在MRI扫描仪里，试图解决这些问题，同时我的大脑正在被扫描。
And I was in the MRI scanner trying to solve these problems while my brain was being scanned.
我的意识拼命地工作，试图弄清楚该怎么做。
And my conscious mind was working like crazy trying to figure out what to do.
当我正在斟酌最佳选择时，我的右手——悬停在MRI机器内用于记录反应的按钮上方——我的右食指却不由自主地动了起来，因为我的潜意识已经找到了答案，而我的前额叶皮层却对这个问题完全困惑不解。
And while I was deliberating what the optimal choice was, my right hand, which was hovering over the button press that you use to record your responses inside an MRI machine, my right index finger was going because my unconscious mind had figured out the answer even as the sort of prefrontal cortex of me was totally flummoxed by the problem.
那个获得奖励的潜意识在说：哦，奖励在那里。
The unconscious mind, the one that had gotten the reward was like, oh, the reward is over here.
别再想了，去拿糖水吧，因为那就是奖励。
Stop thinking and go get the sugar water because that was the reward.
这本质上就像是他们往我嘴里输送的一种甜饮料。
It was basically like, you know, a sweet drink that they were piping into my mouth.
我记得坐飞机回家时，望着窗外，只是说：天啊，我刚才经历了什么？
And I remember flying home on the plane, looking out the window and just saying, oh, what just happened to me?
当你发现自己的脑袋里住着一个地下的生物，正在默默做着这一切，而你却完全无意识时，这真的令人深感谦卑。
And it's really humbling when you discover that, you know, there's this sort of subterranean creature living in your head doing all this stuff and you have no awareness that it's going on.
坦白说，除非你身处那种情境，否则你永远都不会意识到这一点，而这种情况显然极为罕见。
And frankly, you never will unless you're exposed to those kinds of conditions, are obviously extraordinarily rare.
既然我们的情绪反应如此疯狂，容易被收益的刺激、损失的恐惧或对短期可能带来回报的事物的渴望所驱使。
So given that our emotional reactions are kind of crazy and that we're driven nuts by things like the thrill of gain or our fear of the pain of loss or cravings for whatever feels likely to be rewarding in the short term.
那么在实际操作中，我们到底能做些什么来保护自己呢？
What can we actually do in practical terms to protect ourselves?
在发现自己的情绪更不稳定、更受潜意识驱动之后，你是否推荐某些方法，或者你自己采取了哪些措施？
Are there procedures that you would recommend or that you put in place yourself after discovering that you were a little nuttier and more emotional and driven more by your subconscious mind than you thought?
我们到底能做些什么？
What can we actually do?
正如你所知，威廉，因为你曾帮助他做到这一点，盖伊·斯皮尔写了很多关于所谓‘投资卫生’重要性的东西。
As I know you're aware, William, because you helped him do it, you know, Guy Spier has written a lot about the importance of, I'm gonna call it investing hygiene.
这个术语——‘卫生’——经常被提及。
And that term, the term hygiene comes up a lot.
丹尼尔·卡尼曼在他的新书《噪声》中也使用了这个术语。
Danny Kahneman uses it in his new book, Noise.
他使用了‘决策卫生’这个表达。
He uses the expression decision hygiene.
这是我非常喜欢的一个术语。
It's a term I love.
我认为这就是关键。
And I think that's the key.
我经常在与基金经理和机构投资者交谈时使用的一个说法是：任何可以转化为政策和程序的事情，都应该被制定成政策和程序。
One of the phrases I like that I've often used when I talk with fund managers and institutional investors is you know, anything that can be made a matter of policy and procedure should be made into a policy and procedure.
其理念是，尽可能彻底地将你的主观判断排除在决策过程之外。
The idea is you want to take your subjective judgment out of the decision process as often and as thoroughly as you can.
你并不想完全消除它，因为你不是机器，也没有被雇来当机器。
You don't want to remove it completely because you're not a machine and you haven't been hired to be one.
只要不是必需的，你就应该把它去掉。
Wherever it isn't essential, you wanna get rid of it.
因此，你需要规则、政策和程序，并且在你的投资流程中加入大量‘如果-那么’的判断。
And so you want rules and policies and procedures and you want a lot of if then statements in your investment process.
如果某只股票下跌了25%，而我持有它，那么我必须重新评估：我是应该买入更多、摊薄成本，还是公司的基本面已经发生了变化，我应该卖出。
If this stock goes down 25%, then if I own it, I must then reevaluate it to see if I should be buying more and averaging down or whether something fundamental about the company has changed and I should sell.
如果我还没有持有这只股票，但由于它在我的观察名单上，我应该评估它是否值得买入，因为它的价格已经大幅下跌。
If I don't yet own it, then because it's on my watch list, I should be evaluating it as a purchase because it's just gotten a lot cheaper.
所有事情都应该尽可能转化为‘如果-那么’的陈述。
And everything should be an if then statement that can be an if then statement.
你拥有的规则、政策和程序越多，能融入流程的检查清单和观察清单越多，你的操作规范就越好。
And the more rules and policies and procedures you have, the more checklists and watchlists you can build into your process, the better your hygiene is.
当然，另一个关键点是，盖伊·斯皮尔和你都曾深入探讨过：重要的不仅是你做了什么，还有你在哪里、如何做。
And then of course the other key, which Guy Spier has written about and you've written about extensively, it's not just what you do but it's where and how you do it.
约翰·邓普顿爵士从巴哈马管理资金，巴菲特在奥马哈管理资金，你并不非得在华尔街、曼哈顿、多伦多的湾街、伦敦金融城、香港等地工作。
Sir John Templeton managed money from Life or Key, Buffett manages money from Omaha, you don't have to work on Wall Street or in Manhattan or on Bay Street in Toronto or in the London Financial Center or Hong Kong or whatever.
如果你在偏远地区做你正在做的事情，远离这些外界影响，可能会非常有益。
It could be very constructive for you to be doing what you're doing in the middle of nowhere where you don't have those influences.
任何能打破常规反应模式、情绪化冲动的行为，都可能产生强大的效果。
And anything you can do to break the usual pattern of reaction and response and hot emotion can be really powerful.
让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的发言。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
想象一下，利用真正理解您客户的科技来扩展您的业务。
Imagine scaling your business with technology that understands your customers, literally.
这就是 Alexa 和 AWS AI 背后的故事。
That's the story behind Alexa and AWS AI.
每天，Alexa 在 17 种语言中处理超过 10 亿次交互，同时将客户摩擦降低 40%。
Every day, Alexa processes over 1,000,000,000 interactions across 17 languages, all while reducing customer friction by 40%.
这不仅仅是让生活更轻松，更是改变客户互动并创造新的收入来源。
It's not just about making life easier, it's also about transforming customer engagement and generating new revenue streams.
在幕后，AWS AI 驱动着 70 多个专用模型协同工作，打造自然对话，证明企业如何以自信和安全的方式大规模部署 AI。
Behind the scenes, AWS AI powers more than 70 specialized models working together to create natural conversations, proving how enterprises can deploy AI at scale with confidence and security.
Alexa 的 AI 能力在亚马逊庞大的运营中经过实战检验，实现了可衡量的大规模实际影响。
Alexa's AI capabilities were battle tested across Amazon's massive operations, delivering real measurable impact at scale.
这些相同的创新现在为其他企业提供了经过验证的框架，以提升效率、解锁新的收入来源并获得持久的市场优势。
These same innovations now give other businesses a proven framework to boost efficiency, unlock new revenue streams and gain a lasting market edge.
前往 aws.comai/rstory 了解 Alexa 的故事。
Discover the Alexa story at aws.comai/rstory.
这是 aws.com/ai/rstory。
That's aws.com/ai/rstory.
新的一年到了，这意味着现在正是开始实现你一直梦想的事业的最佳时机。
It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.
就在几年前，我启动了自己的电子商务业务，而Shopify正是我起步所需的工具。
Just a couple years ago, I launched my own e commerce business and Shopify was exactly the tool I needed to get started.
尽管许多人不断将梦想推迟到明年，但我在这里要告诉你，现在正是抓住眼前机遇的时候。
While many people continually push off their dreams until the next year, I am here to tell you that now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities right in front of you.
Shopify为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切。
Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.
数百万创业者，包括我自己，都已经从普通家庭用户跃升为刚刚起步的创业者。
Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already made this leap from household names to first time business owners just getting started.
你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并自定义它们，同时使用其内置的AI工具撰写产品描述或编辑产品图片。
Choose from hundreds of beautiful templates that you can customize and use their built in AI tools to write product descriptions or edit product photos.
随着你的成长，Shopify也会在每一步与你共同成长。
And as you grow, Shopify grows with you every step of the way.
在2026年，停止等待，立即用Shopify开始销售。
In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.
注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就从shopify.com/wsb开始销售。
Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.
前往shopify.com/wsb。
Go to shopify.com/wsb.
那就是shopify.com/wsb。
That's shopify.com/wsb.
今年初，让Shopify陪伴你聆听第一声成功。
Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.
初创公司行动迅速。
Startups move fast.
借助人工智能，它们交付产品更快，并更早吸引企业客户。
And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.
但大单带来了更严格的安全与合规要求。
But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.
SOC 2 并不总是足够的。
A SOC two isn't always enough.
正确的安全措施可以促成交易，也可以毁掉交易。
The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.
但哪位创始人或工程师能抽出时间来脱离公司建设呢？
But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?
Vanta 的人工智能和自动化功能能让您在几天内准备好大单所需条件。
Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.
Vanta 持续监控您的合规状态，确保未来的交易不会被阻拦。
And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.
此外，Vanta 会随着您的业务成长而扩展，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。
Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.
随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 知道何时需要什么，并已构建出最快、最简便的路径来帮助您实现目标。
With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.
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好了，回到节目。
All right, back to the show.
嗯。
Yeah.
上周我为了准备这次访谈，疯狂地、着迷地重读了你所有的书，你帮我澄清了一件事。
One thing that you helped to clarify for me in the last week when I was rereading all of your books in an insanely obsessive way to prepare for this.
在《魔鬼的金融词典》中有一个精彩的定义，这本书是为那些不了解华尔街的扭曲、虚伪和话术的人写的，它是一部讽刺性的定义集。
There's a beautiful definition in the devil's financial dictionary, which is for people who don't know a kind of satirical book of definitions that show the distortions and hypocrisy and spin on Wall Street.
书中将自我控制定义为投资者成功的关键。
There's a definition of self control as the secret to success as an investor.
你写道，我想是在那本书里：‘你内心潜伏着一位天使、一个魔鬼、一位学者和一个傻瓜。’
You write, I think this was in that book, Within You Lurk, an angel, a devil, a scholar, and an idiot.
如果天使和学者一旦放松了他们的信念，魔鬼和愚者就会制造混乱，这种混乱需要多年努力才能修复。
If the angel and the scholar ever let down their God, the devil and the idiot will wreak havoc that will take years of work to undo.
那些能够控制自身行为、并放弃徒劳地控制市场的人，才是最终能够取得胜利的投资者。
Those investors who control their own behavior and abandon the futile effort to control the markets around them are the only ones who will ultimately prevail.
威廉，这真的深深触动了我。
William And it really struck me.
我的意思是，第一，这是一段优美的文字，让我在不刻意奉承的情况下，再次想起你是一位多么有才华的作家。
I mean, A, it's a beautiful piece of writing and reminded me without trying to be obsequious of what a gifted writer you are.
但第二，重新认识到这一点也让我豁然开朗：这其实也是本·格雷厄姆的观点，对吧？
But B, it's really clarifying to come back to the realization that this is something from Ben Graham as well, right?
这个观点认为，你才是自己最大的敌人，而投资的核心游戏，正是你所说的自我控制的斗争。
This idea that you're your own worst enemy and that the real game at the heart of investing is what you call struggle for self control.
首先，谢谢你这么客气的话，威廉。
Well, first of all, thanks for the kind words, William.
我想我们应该告诉我们的听众，这些年来，你不仅编辑过我，我也编辑过你，无论我是在红笔的哪一边，都乐在其中。
And I think we should tell our audience that over the years, you haven't just edited me, but I've also edited you and taken great pleasure regardless of which side of the red pen I was on.
但没错，我认为每个人都需要思考的一点是，投资是一场心理博弈，但难道不是一切皆如此吗？
But yeah, I think one thing that is important for everyone to think about is that investing is a head game, but isn't everything?
我的意思是，当你观看世界上两位最伟大的网球选手在网前彼此猛烈击球时，谁会赢？
I mean, when you watch two of the world's greatest tennis players hammering the ball at each other across the net, who's gonna win?
是那个更高大、更强壮、更快的人吗？
The one who's bigger, stronger, faster, maybe?
还是那个能保持专注、不因自己的失误而毁掉整场比赛的人？
Or is it going to be the one who stays focused and who doesn't let his or her own mistakes ruin the match.
你知道，我是个很糟糕的业余网球手，我之所以渐渐停止打网球，是因为我发现我总会因为自己的失误而极度沮丧，根本无法让自己平静下来。
You know, I'm a very poor recreational tennis player and one of the reasons I sort of stopped doing it was I found I would get so frustrated at my own mistakes that I couldn't calm myself back down.
这其中有一个很有用的教训，那就是在一个领域中的技能，并不会真正迁移到其他所有领域。
And there's a useful lesson in that, which is that skill in one domain doesn't really carry over to every other.
我认为我在管理投资情绪方面非常出色，但在管理自己的情绪倾向方面却很差。
I think I'm very good at managing my investment emotions, but I'm really bad at managing my tendency emotions.
但话说回来，投资归根结底是一场心理博弈，因为我们在这个金融市场中竞争的每个人，所拥有的资源几乎都是一样的。
But look, investing is above all else a head game because everyone we're competing with in the financial markets has pretty much the same resources at their disposal.
在美国实施Reg FD之后，没有分析师能比其他分析师更早获得内部消息。
After Reg FD in The United States, no analyst really gets some inside scoop before some other analyst.
每个人都拥有彭博终端，每个人都阅读《华尔街日报》，股票报价是即时的，全球有大约18万CFA持证人。
Everybody has a Bloomberg machine, everybody reads the Wall Street Journal, stock quotes are instantaneous, there's a 100, whatever it is, 180,000 CFAs around the world.
这是一个难以置信的竞争市场。
It's an unbelievably competitive marketplace.
那么，是什么让卓越者与优秀者区分开来呢？
So what would distinguish the greats from the very goods?
这几乎必须是他们从外部带来的东西——也就是他们自己的品格。
It kinda has to be something they're bringing in from outside, which is their own character.
如果你想变得卓越，你就必须像管理投资组合一样，投入大量精力来培养自己的品格。
And if you wanna be great, you're gonna have to put as much effort into cultivating your character as you do into managing your portfolio.
威廉，你曾花了几年时间帮助丹尼尔·卡尼曼——那位你之前提到的诺贝尔奖得主，当时他正在撰写《思考，快与慢》这本书。
William You spent a couple of years helping Danny Kahneman, the Nobel laureate who you mentioned before when he was first working on his book, Thinking Fast and Slow.
显然，卡尼曼是关于偏见以及我们如何在做决策时自我破坏的顶尖专家之一。
And obviously Kahneman is one of the great experts on biases and the way that we sabotage ourselves when making decisions.
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