RWH005：与大师对话——阿斯沃斯·达摩达兰

我对课程的准备充分到根本不需要看幻灯片就知道上面的内容。

I'm prepared for my classes to the point I never have to look at my slides to know what's on the slides.

所以我认为，当你不在状态时找到自己的状态，我现在比刚开始时做得更好，因为我学会了一些小技巧来让自己重回状态。

So I think that finding your zone when you're not in the zone is something I do better now than when I started because I've learned small tricks to bring myself back into the zone.

比如设计问题这样的小技巧。

Tricks like figuring out questions.

你在我幻灯片中会注意到，我会提出一些问题，并给出多个选择答案，然后展示出来。

One of the things you will notice in my slides is I have these questions I ask where I give multiple choice answers, and I put them up.

所以，我不直接向全班抛出一个开放式问题，以免没人回应，而是说：‘我来放一个问题。’

So instead of throwing an open question to a group where nobody might react, I say, Look, I'm going to throw this question up.

我会给出五个选项。

I'm going to put five answers.

这些选项中没有一个是明显错误的。

None of the answers are going to be obviously wrong.

然后我会要求大家安静一分钟，思考并选择一个答案。

And I call for a minute of silence where people get to pick an answer.

这一分钟不仅对学生有帮助，对我自己也同样重要，因为这些时刻能让你整理思绪，说：好吧，让我重新回到正轨。

Minute actually helps me as much as it helps the students because, again, those moments allow you to gather your thoughts and say, okay, let me get back on track.

我现在有一些做法，即使在状态不佳时也能让我保持专注。

There are things I do now that keep me in the zone even when I'm not feeling like I'm at my best.

而充分准备，我认为对教学至关重要。

And being prepared, that I think is critical to teaching.

但你说得对。

But you're right.

我常告诉人们，作为教师，最大的罪过就是让别人感到无聊。

And know one of the things I tell people is the biggest sin you can commit as a teacher is to bore people.

我会激怒你。

I will provoke you.

我会惹恼你。

I will anger you.

我宁愿引发任何情绪，也不愿让人感到无聊。

I will I'm willing to take any emotion over boredom.

这并不意味着我会故意惹人生气。

That doesn't mean I'm going to prod at people just to make them mad.

但这意味着有时我会提出一些具有挑衅性的问题，因为它们挑战了人们的信念。

But it means that sometimes I would throw a question out that might be provocative because it challenges people's beliefs.

在我讲公司金融课一开始，我会问：你们有多少人认为市场是短期的？

One of the first things I start my corporate finance class is I ask, you know, how many of you think markets are short term?

因为至少传统观点认为市场是短期的。

Because that's the conventional wisdom at least, is markets are short term.

我们需要做其他事情来让市场变得长期化。

We need to do other things to make them long term.

大约三分之二的学生举手表示，他们认为市场是短期的。

And about two thirds of my class put up their hands and say, hey, think markets are short term.

我会问：你们能给我一些支持这种观点的证据吗？

I say, can you give me a piece of evidence that backs up that view?

令人惊讶的是，要找到真正证明市场是短期的证据竟如此困难。

And it's amazing how difficult it is to actually find actual evidence that markets are short term.

事实上，如果你查看实际证据，你会得出结论：市场过于长期化了。

In fact, if you look at the actual evidence, you would conclude that markets are far too long term.

否则，你怎么解释你给那些还没找到商业模式的公司估值高达一千亿美元？

Otherwise, how can you explain the fact that you put $100,000,000,000 values on companies that haven't figured out a business model yet?

任何短期市场都不会这么做。

No short term market would do that.

因此，通过提出这些问题，挑战人们固有的观点——并不是因为我想要改变他们的观点，那不是我的职责，而是促使他们审视自己的观点。

So by opening up these questions where people have preset views and challenging those views, not because I want to change their views, that's not my job, but to make them examine their own views.

如果最后他们仍然认为市场是短期的，我也完全能接受。

And if at the end they say, I think markets are still short term, I'm perfectly okay with it.

在向他人灌输我的观点方面，我不是一个传教士，但我希望他们能审视自己的观点。

I'm not an evangelist when it comes to putting my views on others, but I want them to examine their own views.

我认为你更像是自由思考和质疑正统观点的布道者。

I think you're kind of an evangelist for free thinking, for questioning orthodox opinion.

这样说公平吗？

Is that fair to say?

我认为我们都应该成为这一理念的倡导者。

I think that we should all be evangelists for this.

我的意思是，谁想要一个充满机器人的世界呢？

I mean, who wants a world full of robots?

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的信息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

你的比特币资产越多，面临的挑战就越复杂。

The more your Bitcoin holdings grow, the more complex your challenges become.

最初简单的自托管，如今已演变为涉及家庭遗产规划、复杂的安保决策，以及一个错误就可能损失数代财富的境况。

What started as a simple self custody now involves family legacy planning, sophisticated security decisions, and navigating situations where a single mistake could cost generations of wealth.

标准服务并未为这些高风险的现实情况而设计。

Standard services weren't built for these high stakes realities.

因此，长期投资者选择Unchained Signature——这是一项专为认真持有比特币的人士提供的高端私人客户服务，提供专业指导、稳健托管和持久的合作关系。

That's why long term investors choose Unchained Signature, a premium private client service for serious Bitcoin holders who want expert guidance, resilient custody, and an enduring partnership.

使用Signature服务，您将配备一位专属客户经理，他了解您的目标，并在每一步为您提供帮助。

With Signature, you're paired with your own dedicated account manager, someone who understands your goals and helps you every step of the way.

您将享受一对一的入职服务、当日紧急支持、个性化教育、降低交易费用，以及优先参与独家活动和功能。

You get white glove onboarding, same day emergency support, personalized education, reduced trading fees, and priority access to exclusive events and features.

Unchained的协作托管模式旨在为那些希望自行保管密钥的人提供与全球最大的比特币托管机构同等的安全保障。

Unchained's collaborative custody model is designed to provide the same security posture as the world's biggest Bitcoin custodians, but for those who prefer to hold their own keys.

了解更多关于Unchained Signature的信息，请访问unchained.com/preston。

Learn more about Unchained signature at unchained.com/preston.

结账时使用代码Preston10，可享受首年10%折扣。

Use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first year.

比特币不仅关乎一生，更关乎世代传承。

Bitcoin isn't just for life, it's for generations.

当你经营一家小企业时，聘用合适的人才至关重要。

When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.

合适的员工能提升团队素质、提高生产力，并将您的业务推向新高度。

The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人本身可能就像一份全职工作。

But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.

这就是LinkedIn招聘的用武之地。

That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.

他们的新AI助手通过为您匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

无需再翻阅大量简历，它会根据您的标准筛选应聘者，并突出显示最匹配的人选，为您节省数小时时间，并在合适人选出现时助您快速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是，这些优秀候选人已经存在于LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工，至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

一次就招对人。

Hire right the first time.

请前往linkedin.com/studybill免费发布职位，然后推广职位以使用LinkedIn招聘的新AI助手，让寻找顶尖候选人变得更轻松、更快速。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.

免费发布职位，请访问linkedin.com/studybill。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗？

You know what sets the best businesses apart?

正是他们如何利用创新将复杂性转化为增长。

It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.

亚马逊广告正是这样做的，其背后由AWS人工智能驱动。

That's exactly what Amazon ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.

每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，优化整个310亿美元广告生态系统的广告效果。

Every day, Amazon ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.

结果是，广告活动运行速度提升30%，并实现大规模的可衡量业务影响。

The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.

而这正是亚马逊自身推动增长的方式。

And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.

他们的智能AI将营销从资源密集型流程转变为智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，并赋能营销人员专注于创意与战略。

Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.

亚马逊广告正在证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。

Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.

更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部完善的同一套创新方法论。

And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.

前往 aws.com/ai/rstory 了解亚马逊广告的故事。

See the Amazon ad story at aws.comai/rstory.

那就是 aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

好的。

All right.

回到节目上来。

Back to the show.

我特别欣赏的一点是——我对这一点持中立态度，我并不认为自己有答案，但我非常欣赏你对ESG的讨论方式，以及你如此直言不讳的态度。

One of the things I've particularly appreciated, and I'm agnostic about this, I don't in any sense have the answer, but I really appreciate the way you've discussed ESG, the way you've been incredibly outspoken.

企业应当在环境和社会责任方面做得更好，并实现更优的治理，这一理念本身。

Whole idea that companies should somehow be more environmentally and socially responsible and have better governance.

而且显然，这背后有着巨大的商业驱动力，我猜这主要来自像贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克这样的商业领袖，他们试图向投资者推销这一理念，说服所有人：企业做好事确实有益，能提升利润并为股东创造价值。

And there's obviously been a huge drive, commercially driven drive, I suspect, from business leaders like Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, to sell this idea to investors and to persuade everyone that it's really beneficial for companies to do good, that it helps the bottom line and is profitable for shareholders.

我认为可以说，你对此并不信服。

I think it's fair to say that you're not convinced.

当我通过推特向你提问时，有好几个人给我回复了关于这个问题的看法。

And when I asked the questions on Twitter to ask you, there were several people who wrote to me about this.

一位名叫法比奥·祖格曼的听众给我发了消息，我会寄给他一本我的书《理查德·韦泽尔：更快乐》以感谢他的提问，他告诉我：‘你一定要问他关于ESG的问题。’

A listener named Fabio Zugman, who I'm gonna send a copy of my book, Richard Weiser Happier, to thank for his question, said to me, you gotta ask him about ESG.

他还说：‘你认为ESG会成为过去的一种潮流，还是会因为一直被用作营销噱头而顽固地持续存在？’

And he said, do you think ESG will be a fad of the past, or is it one of those things that will refuse to die as long as it serves as a marketing gimmick?

所以我想知道，你能否为我们剖析一下这个观点？为什么你对它如此愤世嫉俗，如此怀疑？

And so I wonder if you could talk us through this idea, why you're so cynical about it, why you're so skeptical.

我最早在2020年就写过关于ESG的文章，当时写它是因为我从未见过一个概念能如此迅速地从无到有，成为主流共识。

I first wrote about ESG in 2020, and I wrote about ESG because I'd never seen a concept explode that quickly out of nowhere to become the status quo.

通常，概念都是从边缘开始的。

Usually concepts are the edges.

企业高管们已经接受了这一现状。

The status quo had bought in CEOs of companies.

企业圆桌会议已经签署了一份关于利益相关者以及公司应如何为利益相关者运营的声明。

The corporate roundtable had bought this signed a statement on stakeholders and how companies should be run for stakeholders.

由贝莱德领导的大型投资基金正在将ESG推到前沿。

The big investment funds led by BlackRock were pushing ESG to the forefront.

让我产生怀疑的是，似乎没有任何权衡。

What made me suspicious was there seemed to be no trade offs.

销售话术是：你可以拥有全部。

That the sales pitch was you can have it all.

你可以行善，同时变得更有价值。

You can do good and be more valuable.

你可以行善，同时获得更高的回报。

You can do good and earn higher returns.

你可以行善，而无需做出任何牺牲。

You can do good and you will have to sacrifice nothing.

纵观人类历史，做好事始终是更艰难的选择。

Through the history of humanity, being good has always been the more difficult choice.

做好事总是要付出代价的。

Being good has always cost you.

事实上，做好事要是更容易的选择的话。

In fact, being good were the easier choice.

我们根本不需要宗教。

We wouldn't need religion in the first place.

对吧？

Right?

如果十诫原本就是我们的自然选择，那我们为什么还需要宗教呢？

If the 10 commandments came to us as our natural choices, then why would we need religion?

善良的本质就是需要牺牲。

The nature of goodness is you got to have sacrifice.

如果ESG运动能坦率地说：‘你知道吗？’，我会更加尊重它。

I'd have had a lot more respect for the ESG movement if they'd come up and said, you know what?

我们需要让世界变得更美好。

We need to make the world a better place.

因此，企业必须接受它们为了让世界变得更美好而减少利润和价值的事实。

So companies have to accept that they will make less money and be less valuable in order to make the world a better place.

投资者必须接受更低的回报，因为他们希望行善。

That investors have to accept lower returns because they want to be good.

如果他们把这当作一种权衡，我会说，好吧，我们可以谈谈。

If they'd made it a trade off, I'd have said, okay, let's talk.

让我们谈谈这种权衡是什么，谁在做出权衡，谁在为这种善意买单。

Let's talk about what the trade off is, who's making the trade off, who's paying for this goodness.

ESG 仍然存在一些问题，但至少那会是一个可以讨论权衡的问题，可以说：这合理吗？

And there are still issues with ESG, but it would have been an issue that you could talk about the trade offs and say, Does that make sense?

但事实上，它却被宣传为全然美好，像蛋糕一样，毫无热量。

But the fact that it was being sold as all good, it's all cake, no calories.

我说：不，必须有人去审视每一个案例，因为我在过去见过这种情况发生。

I said, So No, somebody's got to look under the each of those is in an area where I've seen this happen in the past.

我看到过这种情况，新的概念不断出现，声称是革命性的，但实际上不过是旧酒装新瓶，宣称自己是创造更有价值企业的神奇方法。

Seen what happened, new concepts come up, which claim to be revolutionary, but really old wine in a new bottle claiming to be the magic way of coming up with a more valuable business.

所以我从我最熟悉的领域开始，那就是估值。

So I started with my favorite area, which is valuation.

我说，你们一直告诉我ESG对价值有好处。

I said, You you guys keep telling me that ESG is good for value.

告诉我具体在哪里。

Tell me where.

在我的估值课上，我有一个叫做‘它’命题的观点。

In my valuation class, I have a proposition called the it proposition.

如果它既不影响现金流，也不影响风险，那我们就别再讨论它了。

If it does not affect the cash flows and it does not affect risk, let's stop talking about it.

因此，随着时间推移，我将商业领域每一个流行词都拿来分析，无论是战略考量、中国、云计算，还是其他任何流行词，我都要求讨论它们如何影响现金流和风险，因为只有这样，我们才是在讨论切实的东西。

So through time, I've taken every buzzword in business and said, Hey, whether it's strategic considerations or China or cloud and whatever that buzzword is, let's talk about how it plays out in the cash flows and the risk because then we're talking about something tangible.

所以，否则，

So Otherwise,

它只是成了我们想做的任何决定的填充物

it just becomes this filler for whatever decision we want to

对于ESG，我的第一反应是：给我看看证据。

with ESG, that was my first reaction, show me where.

于是我开始研究ESG支持者所呈现的证据。

So I started looking at the evidence that ESG advocates were presenting.

我对所谓ESG研究的质量感到震惊。

And I was horrified by the quality of research that passes for ESG research.

因为说实话，我觉得这些研究存在很多问题。

Because to be quite honest, it seemed to me that the research had many problems.

其中一个问题是，它们是由倡导者、狂热信徒撰写的。

One was it was written by advocates, true believers.

他们可能已经自我欺骗，认为自己是客观的研究者。

And they might have been delude themselves saying, I'm an objective researcher.

但当你一开始就持有过于强烈的预设或先入之见时，几乎不可能做出严谨的研究。

But when you start with a presumption or a prior that's too strong, it's almost impossible to do clean research.

第二个问题是，他们甚至不确定自己在回答什么问题。

The second was they weren't even sure what question they were answering.

他们在同一项研究中混淆了ESG对公司有利还是对投资者有利。

They were mixing up whether it was good for companies and whether it was good for investors in the same research.

原因非常简单。

And the reason is very simple.

有一个有一定依据的说法是，ESG可以通过保护公司避免做出可能导致危机的愚蠢行为，从而使公司更安全。

One of the stories that has some backing to it is that ESG can make companies safer by protecting them from doing something stupid that can create a crisis.

我愿意倾听这个说法。

I'm willing to listen to it.

但如果这个说法成立，ESG确实让公司更安全，那么这些公司的折现率、股权成本和资本成本就应该更低。

But if that story is true and ESG makes companies safer, those companies should have lower discount rates, lower cost of equity, lower cost of capital.

这很好。

That's good.

但这意味着投资这些公司的投资者也应该获得更低的回报。

But that means investors in those companies should earn lower returns as well.

所以对公司的有利之处，未必对投资者也有利。

So what's good for companies then can't be good for investors as well.

许多这类研究混淆了对公司有利和对投资者有利的区别，他们甚至不清楚自己在回答什么问题。

Much of this research was mixing up what was good for companies, what was good for They weren't sure what the question they were answering was.

当我刚开始时，很少有人提出反对。

When I first started, very few people were pushing back.

自那以后的两年里，反对的声音显然变得更加明显了。

In the two years since, of course, the pushback has become much more tangible.

老实说，我昨天写了一篇关于ESG的文章，并发布在我的博客上。

And to be quite honest, I wrote a piece about ESG yesterday that I posted on my blog.

我对ESG已经厌倦了，不想再争论了。

I'm done with ESG, and I don't want to refight.

我要转向其他事情了，因为我本来就是个兴趣广泛的人。

I'm going to move on to something else because I'm a dabbler.

我的兴趣已经耗尽了，我也基本说出了我想说的一切。

My interest has run out, and I've pretty much said what's on my mind.

我已经告诉过人们我的立场以及我为什么这样认为。

I've told people where I'm coming from and why I think what I do.

我对强迫别人接受我的想法毫无兴趣。

I have no interest in forcing my thoughts on other people.

我会表达我的观点，如果别人从中汲取某些部分并加以反驳或将其变为自己的观点，我完全接受。

I will put out my views, and if other people take strands of it and push back or make it their views, I'm completely okay with it.

但我只是希望确保人们理解我的出发点。

But I just wanted to make sure that people understood where I was coming from.

我认为，通过查理·芒格的视角来看待事情也非常有帮助，他说：记住，你总是要首先关注激励机制。

I think it's also really helpful to see things through Charlie Munger's lens of just saying, Look, you always wanna focus on incentives first.

如果你要优先关注某件事，那就是激励机制。

If there's something you wanna focus on first, it's incentives.

你非常清晰地指出，像麦肯锡、德勤、毕马威和贝莱德这样的所有公司，都有强大的动机去推动这种社会责任投资的理念。

You pointed out very eloquently that all these companies like McKinsey and Deloitte and KPMG and BlackRock, they have tremendous incentives to push this idea of investing in a socially responsible way.

因此，如果你理解了激励机制，也理解了华尔街的运作方式，你就应该保持警惕。

And so it does seem like if you understand incentives and you understand the way Wall Street works, you wanna be wary.

这是法学院里一句古老的拉丁语格言。

It's the old Latin saying in law schools.

对吧？

Right?

谁受益？

Cui bono.

你告诉我谁受益，我就能倒推回去。

You tell me who benefits, and I'll work backwards from there.

这是一种对世界的愤世嫉俗的看法，但不幸的是，它非常有效地解释了为什么某些事情会被推到前台。

It's a cynical view of the world, but unfortunately, it's a very effective way of thinking why you end up seeing things pushed to the front.

这是激励问题，但我也认为，任何基于评分的体系都会催生投机行为。

It's incentives, but it's also I think any score based system is going to create gaming.

人们经常在ESG问题上抱怨绿色洗牌。

Mean, people often in ESG complain about greenwashing.

他们说，如果不存在公司试图装好的绿色洗牌现象，ESG就会奏效。

They say, If only there wasn't greenwashing where companies try to look good, ESG would work.

我告诉他们：听好了，绿色洗牌是ESG的一个特征。

I tell them, Look, greenwashing is a feature of ESG.

这并不是系统中的漏洞，因为按照你设计ESG的方式，绿色洗牌正是你预期会发生的。

It's not a bug in the system because the way you've structured ESG, greenwashing is exactly what you'd expect.

事实上，如果你告诉我这就是你要做的，我会预测到绿色洗牌，因为每次我们建立一个评分系统，都会有人钻空子。

In fact, if you told me that this was what you were going to do, I would have predicted greenwashing because every time we've created a score based system, there's gaming the system.

而现在发生的事情正是如此。

And that's exactly what's happening now.

情况只会变得更糟。

It'll only get worse.

我对这个话题有些矛盾，因为我在这方面有点道德主义，我确实希望公司能以更负责任的方式行事。

I'm slightly torn about this whole subject because I am sort of moralistic about these things, and I do wish companies behaved in a more responsible way.

因此，当我看到像好市多这样的公司，我认为它们非常正直地对待顾客时，这让我感到些许安心，也给了我一个反例，让我说服自己：在生活中正直行事确实有好处。

And so when I look at a company like Costco that I think does treat its customers very honorably, it gives me some confidence or it gives me some counterargument to convince myself that actually there's a benefit to behaving decently and honorably in life.

你怎么看这个问题？

How do you think about that?

这正是我也提出的观点。

That's the point I also made.

我的意思是，我们每个人都有自己的道德准则，我们需要始终如一地遵循这一准则。

I mean, I think we each have a moral code, and we need to behave consistently with that moral code.

怎么做呢？

By doing what?

不仅要投资那些遵循道德准则的公司，还要在我们的消费选择和与社区的互动中践行。

By not just investing in companies that track the moral code, but in our consumption choices, in the way we interact with our communities.

我们每个人都需要做正确的事。

Each of us needs to do the right thing.

ESG的问题在于，它实际上在说：你不必这么做。

The problem with ESG is it's actually saying, You don't have to do that.

这太难了。

That's so difficult.

你还是像往常一样开着你的SUV。

You drive your SUV the way you've always done.

你尽管不喜欢星巴克的经营方式，却还是在那里买卡布奇诺。

You buy your cappuccino at Starbucks even though you might not like the way it's run.

但当你回到家，只要买一个ESG基金，就感觉道德上平衡了。

But when you get back home, just buy an ESG fund, and the scales have leveled up.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我认为我们每个人都需要做正确的事。

I think that we each need to do the right thing.

但问题在于，正如我所说，善良总是有代价的，你必须为这份善良放弃一些东西。

The problem, though, is, as I said, goodness is always costly, which is you've got to give up something for that goodness.

事实上，如果你只选择在你认为善待员工的商店购物，可能就得支付更高的价格。

The fact is by choosing to shop only at stores that you think treat their employees well, you might have to pay a higher price.

如果你担心亚马逊的包装盒污染环境、增加垃圾填埋量，那你就可能不想在亚马逊上买东西了。

Your worry is that Amazon boxes are polluting the world with just adding to the landfill, then you might not want to buy your stuff on Amazon.

这对很多人来说都会相当不便。

That's going to be quite an inconvenience for a lot of people.

但我觉得人们不愿意被麻烦。

But I think people don't want to be inconvenienced.

他们希望善行能直接送到面前。

They want goodness to be delivered on a platter.

而ESG向他们承诺的是：我们会把善行直接呈上。

And what ESG is promising them is, we'll deliver it on a platter.

你不必做出那些选择。

You don't have to make those choices.

所以别误会我的意思。

So don't get me wrong.

我们都同意，希望让世界变得更美好。

We all agree we want to make the world a better place.

问题是，ESG是实现这一目标的方式吗？

The question is, is ESG the way to do it?

我不这么认为。

I don't believe so.

我认为我们需要根据自己的道德准则做出选择，因为善良取决于你如何成长，以及你从家庭中汲取的价值观。

I think we need to make our choices based on our own moral codes because goodness is going to be a function of how you grew up, what your family, what you imbibe from your family.

本质上，这取决于你是一个怎样的人。

Essentially, it's going to be of who you are as a person.

我可以走遍我的社区，问人们什么是善良。

I could go around my neighborhood and ask people to define good.

我打赌会有二十种不同的善良定义。

I'd wager there'd be 20 different definitions of goodness.

而ESG声称，我们已经达成了一种共识方式。

And what ESG is saying is we've come up with a consensus way.

在我所处的这个万物皆无共识的世界里，我们怎么可能就什么是善、什么是恶达成共识呢？

In the universe that I live in, where nothing is agreed upon, how the heck are we gonna consensus on what's good and what's not?

我甚至不认为这个起点是一个有意义的出发点。

I don't even see that starting point as a point that makes sense.

另一个你一直非常直言不讳、从我的角度看又颇具趣味性地富有挑衅性的领域，是关于加密货币的讨论。

Another area where you've been very outspoken and kind of enjoyably provocative from my point of view is in talking about cryptocurrencies.

我记得你曾说过一个绝妙的短语，你说加密货币是偏执者为偏执者创造的货币。

I remember you had this wonderful phrase where I think you said that it was a currency created by the paranoid for the paranoid.

你能谈谈你对比特币为何在它诞生时的社会经济环境中兴起的看法吗？

Can you talk a bit about your view of why things like Bitcoin took off in terms of the social and economic environment that we were operating in when it was born?

因为这似乎是对它如何产生并变得如此流行的一种非常有趣且有用的视角。

Because that seems like a really interesting and useful perspective on how it came into being and how it became so popular.

事实上，当我提到这一点时，我特指比特币，因为它至今仍是加密货币运动的核心。

In fact, when I described I was talking about Bitcoin in specific because it still is the centerpiece of the crypto movement.

我不知道人们是否了解中本聪——那个创造比特币的匿名者——所撰写的第一篇论文，它写于2008年11月。

I don't know whether people are aware of that first paper that Satoshi Nakamoto, that pseudonym for whoever it was that created Bitcoin put together, it was written in November 2008.

我记得2008年11月。

I mean, I remember November 2008.

那不仅是市场危机，更是一场动摇了我们对所有机构——包括政府和央行——信任的危机。

It was February into not just a market crisis, but a crisis that shook our faith in every single institution, in governments and central banks.

它基本上在说：你知道吗？

Basically, it said, You know what?

我们谁都不能相信。

We can't trust anyone.

我仍然记得那种感觉。

I still remember that feeling.

如果这篇论文诞生于那个时刻，它正是反映了那种无法信任权威人物的情绪。

If the paper was born in that moment, it had reflected that feeling of you cannot trust authority figures.

而比特币的设计正是基于不信任的前提。

And Bitcoin is designed explicitly on the absence of trust.

当我想到比特币和区块链时，本质上它们是我们日常生活中其他行为的延伸。

When I think about Bitcoin and I think about blockchain, essentially it is an extension of what we do with our rest of our lives.

你会根据Yelp上的大众评价来选择餐厅。

You pick a restaurant based on crowd reviews on Yelp.

你会根据Doctor上的大众评价来选择电影。

You pick a movie based on crowd reviews on Doctor.

Beidos。

Beidos.

比特币是一种经过大众检验和验证的货币。

Bitcoin is a crowd checked and a crowd tested currency.

因此，不是由中央银行，而是由这些计算机矿工来决定你的交易是否应该通过。

So rather than a central bank, you've got these computer miners deciding whether your transaction should go through.

所以它体现了这种彻底的不信任。

So it reflects that complete absence of trust.

所以我理解这种信念。

So I understand that belief.

这反映了一部分人群的观点，我并不是说他们对或错，他们就是不信任任何人。

And it feeds into I mean, there's a subset of our population, and I'm not saying they're right or wrong that doesn't trust anybody.

我敢打赌，如果你画一个维恩图，比较那些不信任任何人的人和那些过度投资加密货币的人，两者会有大量重叠，因为你不相信银行。

And I would wager that if you did a Venn diagram of people who don't trust anybody and people who are overinvested in crypto, there's gonna be a lot of overlap because you don't trust banks.

你不信任政府。

You don't trust governments.

我认为我们不能轻视他们，因为从他们的角度来看，说我不愿把信心寄托在美元、日元或瑞士法郎上是有道理的，因为政府总是欺骗我们，而中央银行也疯狂不已。

And I think we can't talk down to them because it makes sense from their perspective to say, I'm not going to put my faith in the US dollar or the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc because governments lie to us all the time and central banks are crazy.

所以我认为，无论是比特币还是NFT，从它们的增长来看，都反映了人群中有一部分人。

So I think both Bitcoins and NFTs, if you look at their growth, reflect the fact that there is a portion of the population.

虽然这个群体所占比例可能不高，但就绝对数量而言，这是一个庞大的数字，他们越来越放弃传统金融资产。

It might not be very high percentage, but in terms of numbers, it's a big number that increasingly has given up on traditional financial assets.

他们不再认为股票是企业的所有权，不再认同沃伦·巴菲特的那句老话。

They don't think of shares as ownership in businesses, the old Warren Buffett saying.

他们也不认为债券会以任何合理的方式得到兑付，至少无法用它们来购买其他实际物品。

They don't think bonds are going to be honored in any sensible way with at least things they can use to buy other things.

他们已经放弃了传统金融资产。

They've given up on traditional financial assets.

在过去，猜猜他们会买什么？

In the old days, guess what they would have bought?

他们会买黄金，对吧？

It would have been gold, Right?

因此，这也是我对比特币的另一种描述。

And so that's the other description I've given of Bitcoin.

这是千禧一代的黄金，意思是：我不信任任何人，所以我选择持有某种不依赖于这些任何东西的资产。我理解人们为什么坚持持有它。

It's the millennial gold, which is, Hey, I don't trust anybody, so I'm going to go back to holding something that doesn't depend So on any of these I understand why people hold onto it.

事实上，你可以仅凭这种偏执来解释供需关系。

In fact, you could explain the demand and supply based purely on that paranoia.

因此，如果世界变得越来越不信任，我会预期加密货币和NFT的价格会持续上涨。

So if the world becomes less trusting, I would expect the prices of cryptos and NFTs to keep climbing.

从这个角度来看，我理解正在发生什么。

From that perspective, I understand what's going on.

我只是觉得，当前加密货币的发展实际上阻碍了它们变得实用。

I just think that what's going on with cryptos is actually getting in the way of them becoming functional.

我们拿比特币来说，对吧？

Let's take Bitcoin, right?

比特币是一种加密货币。

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency.

作为货币，你需要的一个特性是稳定性。

One of the things you need in a currency is stability.

作为店主，你不能用一种货币来定价。

As a shopkeeper, you can't price things in a currency.

它在一天之内就上涨了20%。

It goes up 20% during the course of a day.

你需要不断调整价格。

You need to keep changing prices constantly.

但问题是，如果你问大多数人最喜欢比特币的哪一点，他们会说自己的资产在过去一周上涨了40%，或者他们做空比特币，赚了25%。

Problem, though, is if you ask most people what they like most about Bitcoin, it's the fact that their holdings went up 40% in the last week, or they sold short on Bitcoin, went down 25%.

投机者正在主导加密货币市场。

The speculators are driving the crypto game.

只要他们主导市场，他们对加密货币的需求就会与我们其他人对加密货币的需求相冲突。

And as long as they drive it, what they want out of crypto is going to be at odds with what the rest of us want out of crypto.

所以我确信，迟早会出现一种数字货币。

So I do truly believe that there is going to be a digital currency sooner or later.

我认为我们比自己意识到的更接近那一天。

I think we're closer to it than we realize.

我认为，数字货币必须获得政府和税务部门一定程度的认可，因为一种从法律和税务角度都无法追踪的货币是行不通的。

I think that digital currency will have to get some degree of buy in from governments and tax authorities, you know, because you can't have a currency that nobody can track from a legal perspective, from a tax perspective.

但我认为它正在到来。

But I think it's coming.

所以，当我看到目前现有的选择时，我认为我们迄今为止创造的任何货币都不具备成为全球数字货币的条件。

So I, you know, I just don't think when I see the existing choices out there that any of the currencies we've created so far is equipped to be that global digital currency.

你有没有把购买加密货币当作一种投机游戏，还是说这违背了

Have you ever bought any cryptocurrencies as a kind of speculative game, or is it just it violates

你的货币原则？

your Currencies principles?

只能定价。

Can only be priced.

无法估值。

They can't be valued.

所以当你买卖一种货币时，你其实是在进行交易。

So when you buy or sell a currency, you're trading.

我不是交易员。

I'm not a trader.

我是个投资者。

I'm an investor.

我说这话并不是为了显得自己高人一等。

I'm not saying that to make myself superior.

那不是我的玩法。

That's not my game.

我不是个好的交易员。

I'm not a good trader.

我之所以这么说，是因为交易和投资之间的选择，正好能引出对投资理念的思考。

And here's what I mean about that choice between trading and investing because it's a nice segue into thinking about investment philosophies.

在投资中，你会根据企业、现金流来评估价值，并将其与价格进行比较。

In investing, you value something based on a business, based on cash flows, you compare it to the price.

如果价格低于价值，你就以这个价格买入，并希望价格最终能向价值靠拢。

And if the price is less than the value, you buy at the price and you hope and pray that the price converges on that.

在交易中，你并不关心那些。

In trading, you don't care about that.

一切都在于低价买入、高价卖出。

It's all about buying at a low price, selling at a high price.

这意味着，如果我问你价值是多少，你会说，我不在乎，只要我能判断对方向就行。

It's about you're saying, So if I ask you what's the value, you're going say, I don't care as long as I can get the direction right.

这关乎判断情绪和动量。

It's about gauging mood and momentum.

最优秀的交易员非常擅长判断情绪和动量。

The very best traders are really good at gauging mood and momentum.

所以当人们嘲笑技术分析或图表时，我说：别这么快就嘲笑。

That's why when people laugh at technical analysis or charting, I say, Don't be so quick to laugh.

交易关乎情绪和动量。

Trading is about mood and momentum.

也许你嘲笑的那些支撑位和阻力位，比深入分析现金流并进行全面估值更能反映情绪和动量的变化。

Maybe these support and resistance lines that you laugh about tell me more about shifts in mood and momentum than digging through the cash flows and doing a full fledged valuation.

我是个糟糕的交易员。

I'm a terrible trader.

有时候，知道自己不擅长什么是很重要的。

Sometimes it's good to know what you don't do well.

我避免交易，不仅限于股票，还包括任何只能交易的东西。

I avoid trading, not just in stocks, but in anything that can only be traded.

我不交易。

I don't trade.

因此，我从未买卖过比特币，但我能理解那些这么做的人，也许他们更擅长察觉这个领域的情绪变化。

And for that reason, I've never bought or sold Bitcoin, but I can understand other people who do it because maybe they're better at detecting mood shifts in that business.

我从未买过比特币。

So I've never bought Bitcoin.

我从未卖过比特币，因为在我看来，我不仅赚不到钱，还很可能亏得血本无归。

I've never sold Bitcoin because from my perspective, I would not make money and probably lose my shirt doing it.

你以前写过。

You've written before.

我想这可能出自我最近读过的《估值小书》，那本书非常出色。

I think it may have been in the Little Book of Valuation, which I read recently, which is terrific.

你曾写道，在投资时坚持第一性原理至关重要。

You wrote that it's really important not to budge on first principles when it comes to investing.

我想你曾经解释过，这正是为什么你四次持有亚马逊，但每次当它变得太贵、你无法合理解释持有它的理由时，就不得不卖出——有些人会批评你，说：你看，你找到了一家伟大的公司。

I think you had explained at some point that that was why you've owned Amazon about four different times, and then you had to keep selling it when it became too expensive for you to justify owning it, which some people would criticize because they would say, Look, you found a great business.

就一直持有它吧。

Just hold it.

继续持有它。

Just keep it.

我想请你跟我谈谈你的一些核心原则。

And I wondered if you could talk to me about some of these key tenets for you.

在阿斯瓦斯·达莫达兰的投资方法中，哪些第一性原理是核心所在？

What are the first principles that are at the heart of the Aswath Damodaran way of approaching the investment world?

我首先假设，每个人都需要找到最适合自己的投资哲学。

I start with the presumption that each of us needs to find an investment philosophy that best fits us.

没有一种最好的投资哲学。

There's no one best philosophy.

这就是为什么当你读到关于沃伦·巴菲特和彼得·林奇的书，并试图效仿他们时，几乎每个人尝试后都无法做到他们那样。

That's why when you read books on Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch and you try to do what they do, not surprisingly, almost everybody who tries doesn't do what they do.

他们并不理解。

They don't understand.

因为这不仅仅是复制他们选股的方式。

Because it's not just copying the way they pick stocks.

你需要具备一种心理特质，才能真正践行这种投资哲学。

It's a psychological profile you need to kind of pull that investment philosophy off.

所以我花了四十年的时间，试图找到最适合我的投资哲学。

So I've spent forty years of my life trying to figure out the philosophy that fits me.

你仍然需要不断坚持并回头审视，因为有时你会意识到，自己的一些行为并不符合你的个性。

You still have to keep and go back because sometimes you realize there are things you are doing that don't fit your makeup as a person.

我是一个价值投资的信徒。

I'm a believer in value.

相信每项资产都有其价值。

Have faith that every asset has value.

我坚信自己能够估算出这种价值。

I have a faith that I can try to estimate that value.

我也相信，在某个时刻，价格会回归到其价值。

And I have faith that at some point in time, the price will adjust to value.

这里的关键词是‘信念’。

Keywords here are faith.

信念的本质是，如果你问我提供证据，我对这三个命题都毫无证据可言。

The essence of faith is if you ask me for proof, I have zero proof that I can offer for all three propositions.

但我的投资哲学正是由这三种信念驱动的。

But my investment philosophy is animated by those three faiths.

我相信，如果我能评估出某物的价值，发现其价格远低于价值，那么当我以低价买入时，随着时间推移，价格终将回归价值。

I believe if I can value something and I see a price and the value is much higher than the price, that if I buy it at the low price, over time the price will adjust to that.

但如果这是我的信念，那么这种信念也要求我在价格高于价值时采取行动。

But if that's my faith, then that faith requires me to also act when the price goes above value.

如果我买了一件便宜的东西，价格却上涨了80%，远高于我的估值，我会重新评估这家公司。既然我的信仰让我在低估时买入，那么同样的信仰也应引导我在高估时卖出。

If I buy something that's cheap and the price goes up 80 percent, well above my value, I revalue the company, then if my faith led me to buy because something was undervalued, the same faith should lead me to sell when it's overvalued.

这就是为什么当人们说我是个价值投资者，说我只在东西便宜时买入，但总是买入并持有时，

That's why when people say I'm a value investor, I buy when something is cheap, but I always buy and hold.

我会说：那你如何调和你刚才告诉我的这种矛盾呢？

I say, Well, how do you reconcile that contradiction in what you just told me?

因为如果你是个价值投资者，你就应该买入价格低于价值的东西。

Because if you're a value investor, you buy things that are priced less than the value.

但如果你只是买入并长期持有，那么当价格涨了十倍、二十倍、五十倍时会发生什么？

But if you buy and just hold, what happens if the price goes up tenfold, twentyfold, fiftyfold?

因为这似乎并不是一个内在一致的投资理念。

Because that doesn't seem to be an internally consistent philosophy.

根据我的经验，当你拥有一个存在内在矛盾的哲学时，它会自我侵蚀。

In my experience, when you have a philosophy that has internal inconsistencies, it eats into itself.

这些内在矛盾会反过来侵蚀你投资理念的核心。

Those internal inconsistencies come back and eat away at the core of your philosophy.

所以我四次卖掉了亚马逊。

So I sold Amazon four times.

如果你问我，我该不该持有亚马逊股票？

If you ask me, should I have a Hoyle Dime?

当然应该。

Absolutely.

事后诸葛亮的话，你总可以回头说：我本该一直持有亚马逊。

The benefit of hindsight, you could always look back and say, I should have had Amazon.

我第一次买是在2001年，也许应该一直持有到2022年。

First time I bought it was 2001, maybe hold it all the way through 2022.

所以，我错过了很多利润。

So I've left money on the table.

但对我来说，为了保持一个始终如一的哲学，这点代价很小。所以如果你问我，我的哲学是什么，我可以坦然告诉你：我确实有一个哲学。

To me, that's a small price to pay to have a philosophy that stays consistent that So if you ask me to describe the philosophy, I can tell you with a straight face that, hey, I have a philosophy.

你可能不认同它。

Might not agree with it.

它可能不是正确的哲学，但我始终如一地按照我的哲学行事。

It might not be the right philosophy, but I act consistently with my philosophy.

一个人如何真正经历这个过程，来决定什么才是适合自己的正确方法？

How can a person actually go through this process of deciding what is the right approach for them?

并且还要提出最根本的问题：他们是否应该参与这个游戏本身，是否应该亲自挑选个股，还是应该承认自己并不具备赢得这个游戏的能力，而将投资交给指数基金或更专业的管理者？

And also ask really the most fundamental question of all, which is whether they should be playing this game themselves, whether they should pick individual stocks themselves, or whether they should just acknowledge the fact that they're not really equipped to win that game, and that they should outsource it to an index fund or a manager who's better equipped than them.

如果你不是专业人士，又需要认真思考‘我的游戏是什么？’，你该如何经历这个过程？

How do you go through that process if you're not a professional and you need to actually think about, well, what is my game?

我可能有什么优势？

What edge might I have?

我应该参与这个游戏吗？

Should I play this game?

首先，要认识到这是一个持续完善的过程。

First is recognize it's a work in process.

这就是为什么我把我的哲学描述为一个仍在完善中的东西。

That's why I describe my philosophy as something that I'm still working on.

我的意思是，有时我会投资某样东西，然后发现它让我感到不安。

And what I mean by that is sometimes I will invest in something and I realize it's making me uncomfortable.

我在投资时有一个非常简单的测试。

I have a very simple test when I invest.

这个测试叫‘睡眠测试’，如果我躺在床上辗转反侧，担心投资组合里的某项资产，那就说明我刚刚的行为有问题。

It's called the sleep test, which is if I lie awake wondering about something that's in my portfolio, there is something wrong with what I've just done.

因为我不应该一整天都惦记着自己投资了什么。

Because I shouldn't be thinking about what I'm invested in for the rest of my day.

那些总是惦记投资组合的人，其实是在收到投资组合传递的信号：这里有些东西让你感到不安。

Think people who constantly think about their portfolios, they're getting a message from their portfolio saying, There's something here that's making you uncomfortable.

我一直在寻找那些让我感到不安的东西，因为这迫使我去调整自己的做法，告诉自己：我不该再这么做了。

I'm constantly looking for things that make me uncomfortable because then I have to go fine tune what I'm doing and say, I shouldn't be doing that again.

上次我这么做的时候，就让我很不安。

It made me uncomfortable the last time I did it.

所以我认为，这其实是倾听自己内心的声音，它在告诉你：嘿，这并不适合你。

So I think that it's listening to your own self telling you things of, Hey, this isn't right for you.

不好意思打断你，但当你这么说的时候，就在你说话的瞬间，我的右眼开始抽搐，因为我想到：我持有那三只股票，它们让我感到不安，而且占用了我太多精力，因为我的大部分资金都投在了其他人管理的基金或几只我长期持有的指数基金上。

Sorry to interrupt you, but as you were saying that, literally as you were talking, my right eye started to twitch because I'm thinking, well, I own these three stocks and they make me kind of uncomfortable and they take up too much of my energy because most of the money I have is in funds run by other people or couple of index funds that I've owned forever.

我花在关注和思考这三只股票上的时间不成比例，尽管我几乎从不卖出，总是长期持有，但它们一直在消耗我的精力。

Disproportionate amount of time that I spend looking at and thinking about those three stocks, even though I try never to sell anything really, I sit on stuff for a long time, it just eats away at me.

所以我一直在想，三点三十的

So I wonder about three:thirty the

这种行为造成的脑力透支，以及过多的

brain death that it's causing, the excess

你第二个问题的情感层面，我来回答。

emotional answers the second part of your question.

你问的是，什么时候不应该主动投资？

You said when should you not actively invest?

当它让你长溃疡、让你痛苦的时候。

When it's causing ulcers, when it's causing pain.

我投资并不是因为我认为自己能战胜市场。

And I invest not because I think I can beat the market.

我会坦诚地说。

I'll be quite honest.

我投资是因为我喜欢投资的过程。

I invest because I enjoy the process of investing.

在我看来，如果我能跑赢市场，那对我来说只是锦上添花。

And the way I see it is if I beat the market, that's icing on the cake for me.

所以我遵循一个简单的原则：在构建投资组合的过程中，尽量少造成伤害。

So I follow a simple rule, do the least damage you can in the process of creating your portfolio.

我的意思是，假设你随机挑选股票。

I mean, let's say you're picking stocks at random.

你以为自己是用某种精妙的模型在系统性地操作，但实际上，这纯粹是随机的。

You think you're doing things with the systematic way of this great model, but in truth, it's just random.

如果你没有交易成本，那么随机操作的回报率将与把钱投入指数基金差不多。

If you have no transactions cost, then doing things randomly is going to deliver about the same returns as putting your money in an index fund.

但我们有交易成本，还有监控费用。

We have transactions cost, we have monitoring expenses.

所以如果你随机操作并且是个日内交易者，你就是在为自己制造不必要的成本和痛苦，这些成本会逐渐侵蚀你的投资组合。

So if you're doing things randomly and you're a day trader, you're creating costs and pain for yourself that is not just unnecessary, it's going to eat away at your portfolio.

所以我真的很享受投资的过程。

So I really enjoyed the process of investing.

我努力避免让投资中两种最危险的情绪影响我的决策。

And I try to keep the two most dangerous emotions in investing out of the game.

一个是后悔，对吧？你回头想，要是我当初做了那件事就好了。

One is regret, right, where you look back and say, I wish I'd done that.

要是我没做那件事就好了。

I wish I hadn't done that.

部分原因是后悔对你毫无帮助，只会侵蚀你的判断力，因为你根本无法回到过去改变任何事。

Partly because regret does nothing for you other than eat away at your insight saying, Because there's no way you can go back in time and reverse something.

另一个是，它可能对你未来的行为产生非常隐蔽的负面影响。

The other is it can actually have a very insidious effect in how you behave going forward.

我举个例子。

I'll give you an example.

我很幸运在2019年6月买了特斯拉，就在马斯克之后。

Was lucky enough to buy Tesla in June 2019, after the Musk.

还记得那条关于410美元融资到位的推文，当时股价已经暴跌。

Remember the $410 funding secured tweet and the stock price had crashed.

我买了特斯拉，接下来的六个月里，股价上涨了400%。

And I bought Tesla and over the next six months, it went up 400%.

我在2020年1月卖掉了特斯拉。

And I sold Tesla in January 2020.

我从未能向特斯拉爱好者们解释清楚，因为他们总指出我卖得太早，白白放过了巨额利润。

I've never lived that down with Tesla enthusiasts because they point to me how much money I left on the table because I sold Tesla too soon.

因为自那以后，股价又涨了十倍。

Because the stock since has gone up another tenfold.

我回过头来看，完全接受自己卖出特斯拉的决定。

And I look back and say, look, I'm perfectly comfortable with the fact that I sold Tesla.

我坦然接受错失的利润。

I'm okay with leaving money on the table.

因为不这么做的代价是，我卖出是因为它已经严重高估了。

Because the price of not doing that would have been I sold because it had become overvalued.

也许我的估值错了，但根据我的理念，如果某样东西变得显著高估，就必须从我的投资组合中剔除。

Maybe my valuation was wrong, but with my philosophy, if something becomes significantly overvalued, it needs to leave my portfolio.

所以对我来说，为了拥有一个让我感到安心的投资理念，这就是我必须付出的代价。

So to me, that was the price I needed to pay to have a philosophy that I'm comfortable with.

有时候，你必须做一些会亏钱的事，以坚持一种真正内在一致的理念。

Sometimes you got to do things that cost you money to stay with the philosophy that actually stays internally consistent.

另一个是愤怒与挫败。

The other is angerfrustration.

我看到很多投资者把大量时间花在对这个世界感到愤怒上。

I see a lot of investors who spend so much of their time being angry at the rest of the world.

他们对别人赚钱感到愤怒。

They get angry at other people making money.

这简直是对你时间和情绪的巨大浪费。

This is an incredible waste of your time and your emotions.

你知道，我有点犹豫去奥马哈，虽然我已经去过四五次了，不是去会议中心，而是去和价值投资者交流，尤其是最近几年，那里对整个世界的愤怒情绪越来越多。

You know, one reason I am a little leery about going to Omaha, and I've gone there four or five times, not to the meeting center, but to talk to value investors, is especially in the last few years, the amount of anger you see there towards the rest of the world.

那些浅薄的投资者买入这些亏损的公司，却赚了钱，人们指手画脚，指责这些投资者该下地狱。

Those shallow investors who buy these low, you know, money losing companies, they make money, a lot of finger wagging going on, you know, hell and damnation coming to those investors.

这是一种会损害你自身投资的情绪。

And it's an emotion that's going to damage your own investing.

所以有时我也会生气，但我会试着说服自己：作为投资者，我不该因为别人做着我不会做的事而对他们感到愤怒。

So sometimes I get angry, and then I try to talk myself off the ledge saying that's not my role as an investor, to be angry at other people because they're doing things that I wouldn't be doing.

那是他们的钱，是他们的选择。

It's their money and their choices.

所以我从不觉得有必要去劝诫那些在45000美元时买入比特币的人，说‘你不该这么做’。

So I've never felt the need to lecture people who buy Bitcoin at 45,000 saying, You shouldn't do that.

我不会这么做。

I wouldn't do it.

这不适合我。

It's not for me.

但如果这对你有效，你是个出色的交易员，已经掌握了情绪和动量，我有什么资格去干涉并说你不该这么做呢？

But if it works for you, you're a great trader, you got mood and momentum nailed down, who am I to step in and say, You shouldn't be doing it?

所以，感受三点钟时你自己的

So think that sensing three:thirty your own

在投资时觉察自己的情绪，实际上是一个很好的反馈机制，能帮助你判断作为投资者是否在做正确的事？

emotions as you invest is actually a good feedback mechanism for, am I doing the right thing as an investor?

你被称为估值领域的泰斗，我想知道你能否为我们讲解一下，你会如何为特斯拉这样的公司估值？

You're known as the dean of valuation, and I wondered if you could take us through how you would value a business like Tesla.

不需要过于详尽，但请以特斯拉或亚马逊这类你多次分析过的公司为例。

Not in ridiculous levels of detail, but think of a company like a Tesla or an Amazon that you've analyzed many times.

你能简单介绍一下你的分析流程吗？最重要的是关注哪些方面？

Can you just give us a sense of your linear process and what the most important things are to focus on?

因为你曾写过，你曾非常优雅地指出，如今投资面临的问题不是数据不足，而是数据太多。

Because one of the things you've written about, you once said very eloquently that the problem that you face in investing now is not that you don't have enough data, but that you have too much.

当我面对一家庞大复杂的公司、快速增长的公司，或任何一家公司时，我很好奇你是如何简化问题、聚焦关键点、过滤噪音的？究竟哪两三个指标或衡量标准能带来最大的价值？

And I'm curious when you tackle a big complicated business or a fast growing business or any business, how you simplify, how you focus on what really matters, how you clear away the noise, what are the two or three metrics or measures that really give us the most benefit?

我认为这对我们的听众会非常有帮助，因为很多人正遭受你所说的‘信息过载’，感觉信息太多了。

I think this could be really helpful for our listeners because many of us are suffering from what you call data overload, the sense that there's just too much information.

我们不知道该如何处理这些信息。

We don't know what to do with it.

我用非常简化的术语，给你一个我的估值课程的浓缩版本。

I'll give you a compressed version of my valuation class in kind of very simplistic terms.

每个估值都在讲述一个关于公司的故事。

Every valuation tells a story about a company.

以特斯拉为例，你讲述的是一个汽车公司的故事吗？

In the case of Tesla, for instance, is it a story you're telling of a car company?

你讲述的是一个绿色能源公司的故事吗？

Is it a story of a green energy company?

你讲述的是一个电池公司的故事吗？

Is it a story of a battery company?

你讲述的是一个科技公司的故事吗？

Is it a story of a technology company?

这个故事实际上是这一过程的起点，因为故事将决定你所做的每一个选择。

That story is actually the starting point for this process because the story is going to frame every choice you make.

让我解释一下我所说的每一个选择是什么意思。

And here's what I mean by every choice you make.

从根本上说，一个企业的价值，如果你仔细想想，来源于五个驱动因素。

Now, ultimately, the value of a business, if you think about it, comes from five drivers.

第三，把握商业模式。

Three, capture the business model.

首先是收入增长，它反映了企业是低增长还是高增长。

First is revenue growth, which captures low growth business or a high growth business.

第二个是营业利润率。

The second is operating margins.

你是否在经营一个盈利的业务？

Are you in a profitable business?

那么，你到底在经营什么样的业务？

So what kind of business are you running?

举个例子，如果你是一家制造公司，即使是一家非常优秀的制造公司，你最好的情况也不过是获得15%到20%的利润率。

As an example, if you're a manufacturing company, even a very good manufacturing company, your best case scenario is you might make 15% to 20% margins.

为什么？

Why?

因为你必须制造出汽车才能卖掉它。

Because you've got to make the car to sell it.

你必须制造出机器才能卖掉它。

You've got to make the machine to sell it.

相比之下，如果你是一家软件公司，你的利润率可以达到40%、45%甚至50%，因为多生产一份软件的成本几乎为零。

In contrast, if you're a software company, your margins can be 40%, 45%, 50% because the extra piece of software costs you nothing to make.

因此，运营利润率反映了你商业模式的盈利能力。

So that operating margin captures the profitability of your business model.

第三，增长需要对机器、设备进行再投资——如果你是制造公司；对研发进行再投资——如果你是科技公司；或对客户获取进行再投资。

Third, growth needs reinvestment in machines, equipment, if you're a manufacturing company, in R and D, if you're a technology company, in customer acquisition.

因此，收入增长、利润率和这种再投资指标共同反映了你商业模式的质量。

So revenue growth, margins, and this reinvestment measure capture the quality of your business model.

所以，当我制作电子表格时，我不会有500行项目。

So when I build spreadsheets, I don't have 500 line items.

我基本上只有这三个项目。

I basically have those three line items.

这样做能让你的注意力更加集中。

And what it does is it focuses your attention.

记住，你一开始会说，我们面对的数据太多了。

Remember, you know, you start by saying we we're faced with too much data.

我们迷失方向的部分原因，是我们看到数据时，却不知道这些数据最终指向哪里。

And the part of the reason we get lost is we start looking at data without any sense of where does that data go.

于是你拿到一个数据点，就顺着它钻进一个死胡同；再拿到另一个数据点，又钻进另一个。

So you get one piece of data, it leads you down one rabbit hole, you take another piece of data, you go down.

这就像是你在收集信息，然后把它们放进文件夹，却没有任何整理系统。

So it's almost like you're collecting information and putting it into folders without any organizing system.

等你做完时，已经收集了15000个项目，却没有任何办法来整理它们。

By the time you're done, you have 15,000 items you've collected and nothing to organize them.

我看待数据的方式是，我的桌面上有三个文件夹：增长文件夹、盈利能力文件夹和再投资文件夹。

Way I think about data is I have three folders on my desktop, a growth folder, a profitability folder, and a reinvestment folder.

比如，当我阅读关于特斯拉的报道时，每一篇告诉我其增长潜力的故事——无论是特斯拉在挪威卖出了多少辆车，还是它正变得多么成功——都会被归入增长文件夹。

As I read about Tesla, for instance, every story that I read that tells me about its growth potential, and that could be a story about how many cars Tesla sold in Norway, how successful it's becoming, those go into the growth folder.

任何关于其盈利能力提升的故事，比如可能出现的毛利率数据，或他们谈论如何降低造车成本的信息，都会被归入盈利能力文件夹。

Any stories I'm hearing about it's improving profitability, the gross margin numbers that might come out or something they're talking about, how they're cutting the cost of making a car go.

因此，每当我看到一条信息，都会把它放进相应的文件夹里。

So each piece of information, as I look at it, goes into a folder.

这种整理方式让数据最终能转化为我估值中的具体数字。

It organizes the data, which means that the data is going to end up as a number in my valuation.

因为如果你不能把这些零散的数据整合成一个明确的数字，就会陷入‘一方面……另一方面……’的困境。

Because if you cannot take all of this disparate data and create a focus number, it becomes on the one hand and the other hand.

最终，你根本无法得出任何明确的结论。

And ultimately, you really can't come to any conclusion.

所以我从一个故事开始，收集相关数据，并在过程中不断打磨我的故事。

So I start with a story, I collect the data, and along the way, I finesse my story.

我完成了，我确实对特斯拉是一家怎样的公司有了清晰的认识。

I'm done, I actually have a sense of this is the kind of company Tesla is.

以特斯拉为例，我最近一次估值是在大约一年前，当时我认为它们有潜力不仅成为一家电动汽车公司，甚至可能成为全球销量最大的汽车公司。

In the case of Tesla, my most recent valuation, which is about a year ago, I saw a pathway for them to becoming not just an electric car company, but perhaps the largest automobile company in the world in terms of cars sold.

从特斯拉投资者的角度来看，这是一个非常乐观的故事，因为我所描述的世界里，几乎每辆车最终都会变成电动汽车。

It's a very upbeat story from a Tesla investor standpoint because the world that I'm describing, almost every car sold ultimately becomes an electric car.

而特斯拉拥有很大的市场份额。

And Tesla has a big market share.

有很多方式可以反驳这个故事。

Lots of ways to push back on that story.

首先，制造电动汽车的成本可能会持续上升，你可能不愿意为一辆车花这么多钱。

First, the cost of making an electric car might continue to build up and you might not want to spend that much money on a car.

你可能最终得不到这样的结果。

You might not end up with that.

其次，你可能会遇到像蔚来这样的低成本生产商，它们可能主导亚洲市场。

The second is you might have lower cost producers like NIO that might end up dominating the Asian market.

我的最终目标是讲一个故事，将其转化为数字，得出一个估值。

My end game here is to tell a story, convert to numbers, come up with the value.

基于我对特斯拉这个极其乐观的描述，我得出的估值大约是每股600美元。

With this incredibly upbeat story I told for Tesla, the value that I came up with was, I think, dollars 600 per share.

当时股价交易在1400美元。

The stock was trading at 1,400.

我把故事中所有可能的乐观因素都纳入了考量。

I had taken every conceivable upbeat part of my story and built it in.

我的反应是：如果你真想买特斯拉，那就买吧。

And my reaction was, Hey, if you want to buy Tesla, go ahead.

对吧？

Right?

从我的故事和数字来看，很难解释为什么要在1400美元时买入特斯拉。

From my perspective with my story and my numbers, justify buying Tesla at 1,400.

所以关键在于不要陷入过多的细节中。

So the key is not to get lost in too many details.

我们谈论指标时，要关注业务指标。

And we talk about metrics, look for business metrics.

投资有定价指标，比如市盈率。

Investing has pricing metrics, PE ratio.

这些指标都很适合回答市场在支付什么价格的问题。

They're all great for saying, what is the market paying?

但价值的关键在于理解企业本身的价值。

But the key to value is understanding what is the business worth.

这就是为什么你需要关注收入增长、利润率和再投资，因为这些才是业务指标。

That's why you want to look at revenue growth and margins and reinvestment because those are business metrics.

所以保留定价指标，但你必须将业务指标纳入你的投资决策中。

So keep the pricing metrics, but you've got to bring business metrics into your investment choice.

那么，像企业文化和管理层质量这样的软性因素，或者在这种情况下，Tezra由一位具有远见卓识的叛逆天才和狂人领导，你该如何权衡这些因素呢？

And how do you factor in things like soft factors like corporate culture or the quality of the management or the fact that, in this case, Tezra is led by a cult leader who's a visionary genius and rebel and maniac?

你如何将这些在某种意义上会扭曲理性分析的问题纳入考量？

How do you factor in those questions which are so distorting of this sort of rational analysis in a sense?

我认为这就是估值的艺术所在，随着时间的推移，你会逐渐了解每个特质体现在哪些变量上。

I think that's the craft part of valuation where essentially you learn over time which variable each quality shows up in.

我给你举几个例子。

I'll give you a few examples.

管理团队的质量。

Quality of management.

这到底意味着什么？

What does that mean?

如果你在一个衰退的行业中担任优秀的管理者，无论你多么出色，都不可能实现30%的利润率和25%的投资回报率。

So if you're a good quality manager in a declining business, no matter how good you are as a manager, you're not going to be able to deliver 30% margins and 25% returns on whatever you're invested.

你会受到所处行业的限制。

You're going to be constrained by the business you're in.

因此，在评估一家公司时，我总是会看这家公司以及行业的平均水平。

So to me, one of the things that I always look at when I value a company is I look at a company, I look at industry averages.

如果你的利润率是17%，而行业平均水平是10%。

So if your margins are 17%, industry averages are 10%.

这纯粹是经济规律：如果没有任何阻碍，你的利润率就会受到冲击，17%会降至10%。

This is sheer laws of economics mean that if there's nothing stopping the process, your margins are going to come under assault and 17% is going to become 10%.

我会停下来问：这家公司的什么优势让它能在平均利润率仅为10%的行业中实现17%的利润率？

I stop and ask, what does this company have that allows it to earn 17% margins in a business that has 10% margins?

可能是品牌名称，这通常被视为一种软性因素。

It could be brand name, supposedly a soft factor.

品牌名称能让你做什么？

What does brand name allow you to do?

它能让你对同样的产品收取更高的价格。

It allows you to charge a higher price for the same product.

也可能是你的管理者非常善于把握机会。

Could be that your managers are really opportunistic.

他们能找到进入的好市场。

They find good markets to go into.

这使他们能够找到利润率更高的市场。

It allows them to find markets with higher margins.

最终，我们在商业中讨论的一切都会体现在这三个数字中的一个，或者体现在风险上。

Ultimately, everything we talk about in business is going to show up in either one of those three numbers or in the risk.

这实际上是一个非常有用的练习。

It's actually an incredibly useful exercise.

我实际上为我的课程创建了一个表格，其中列出了50个软性因素，并思考它们会在估值的哪个环节体现出来。

I actually create a table for my class where I take 50 soft factors and actually say, Let's think about where in your valuation it's going to show up.

你拥有忠诚的员工。

You have loyal employees.

你认为这会在哪里体现出来？

Where would you expect it to show up?

我会预期你的周转率会低得多。

Well, I'd expect your turnover ratios to be much lower.

因此，你可以做的一件事是，有时对那些并不存在的软性因素提出质疑，因为公司喜欢编造并不存在的软性因素。

So one of the things you can do to push back sometimes against soft factors that are not there, because companies like to invent soft factors that are not there.

我们拥有一个品牌名称。

We have a brand name.

真的吗？

Really?

那为什么你的利润率低于竞争对手？

So why are your margins lower than your competitors?

所以通过将这些软性因素纳入可衡量的指标，当别人抛出软性因素时，你就能让他们承担责任，因为我称它们为大规模干扰武器。

So by looking at something that you can put that soft factor into, you hold people accountable when they throw a soft factor in the mix because I call them weapons of mass distraction.

我称它们为大规模干扰武器，是因为它们通常在估值完成后才出现。

Reason I call them weapons of mass distraction is often they show up after you've done the valuation.

所以你评估了一家公司，得出的价值低于其价格。

So you value a company, you come up with a value lower than the price.

某个非常喜爱这家公司并想收购的人会说：但他们的管理团队很优秀呢？

Somebody who really likes the company and wants to buy and say, But what about the fact that they have great management?

你知道他们希望你做什么吗？

You know what they want you to do, right?

他们希望你给予他们许可，即使估值低于价格，也要去收购这家公司，因为它的管理团队很优秀。

They want you to give them the license to go out and buy this company in spite of the fact that the value is less than the price because it is great management.