RWH008：与投资大师莫尼什·帕伯莱一起玩转制胜投资

她曾为一个人权组织工作，该组织正在抗议中国发生的一些事情，并且在李来到美国时曾帮助过他，因为你知道他曾积极参与天安门广场的活动。后来，我认为在圣巴巴拉或其他地方举办了一场活动，她主持了这场活动，露露参加了，查理也去了，他们就是在那里第一次见面的。

She worked for one of these human rights groups which was protesting things happening in China, and they had helped Li when he came to The US because you know he was active in Tiananmen Square and all of that, and there was an event I think in Santa Barbara or something that she had hosted, and Lulu had come for that event, and Charlie had gone there as well, and that's where they met for the first time.

所以这是一次偶然的相遇，然后我认为，一旦查理开始与露露交谈并了解他的投资方式，我还想补充一点。

So it was an accidental meeting, and then I think once Charlie started to talk to Lulu and understand how he invested, but I would also say the following.

我认为查理让露露成为了一名更出色的投资人，他们每周都会一起吃早餐。

I think that Charlie made Lulu an even better investor, so they would meet once a week for breakfast.

当然，露露会和查理讨论各种投资和其他事情，我认为查理——就我所知，当我向他提出一些我正在研究的公司时，

And of course, Lulu will discuss different investments and whatever with Charlie, and I think Charlie is I mean, I what I found with Charlie is sometimes I bring up businesses to him that I'm looking at.

他可能之前从未关注过这家公司，但他能在大约五到十秒内，我真的亲眼见过他的大脑是如何运作的。

He may now never have looked at the business, and he's able to, in about five or ten seconds I mean, I've seen the brain working.

他能迅速穿透所有模型，十秒内就搞定了这家公司。

It's kind of amazing how it just slices through all the models, and he's done with the business in about ten seconds.

而我却已经研究了几个星期，他提出的见解让我大为惊叹。

And I've been, you know, looking at it for weeks, what he comes up with, I alluded me.

所以我给你举个例子。

So I'll give you an example.

我一向钦佩这家名为Credit Acceptance的公司，它出现在一些知名投资者的投资组合中，而且Credit Acceptance在很长一段时间内表现非常出色。

I've always admired this business called Credit Acceptance, and it shows up in some prominent investor portfolios, and Credit Acceptance has done very well for a very long period of time.

我的意思是，它们长期以来的复合增长率超过了20%。

I mean, they've compounded a north of 20% for a very long period of time.

它们向信用记录最差的人提供汽车贷款。

They make auto loans to people who have the worst credit histories.

你曾经多次违约，多次拖欠账单，而利率非常高。

You have defaulted a number of times, you've not paid your bills a number of times, and the interest rates are very high.

利率可能在20%左右，甚至30%左右。

The interest rates might be in the 20 odd percent rate or 30 odd percent rate.

此外，它们的做法是，当Credit Acceptance给你一辆车时，会在车上安装一个装置，可以远程停止车辆运行。

And also what they've done is that the cars, when credit acceptance gives you a car, they put a device in the car which would basically allow them to stop the car from functioning remotely.

它们可以远程控制，直接让车辆熄火。

They could control remotely to basically turn off the vehicle.

车辆将无法再被驾驶。

It could not be driven again.

当他们的付款未能按时到账时，汽车就会停止运行，然后这个人会打电话过来，说：我们没收到您的付款。

When their payment doesn't show up on time, the car stops working, And then the person calls, and then they say, we didn't get your payment.

付款到账后，汽车又能正常运行了。

The payment arrives, the car is working again.

信贷接受公司还有一个有趣的模式，那就是与汽车经销商合作，要求他们投入一部分资金，从而共同持有汽车贷款的部分权益。

Credit Acceptance has also got an interesting model where they work with car dealerships, and they make them put skin in the game, so they own part of the note on the car.

基本上，贷款由汽车经销商和信贷接受公司共同提供，他们成功构建了这套极其盈利的系统。

Basically, loan is made partially by auto dealership and partially by credit acceptance, and they've been able to work this system where it's incredibly profitable.

现在，信贷接受公司也有一个非常积极的方面：这些人的生活如果没有汽车，根本无法上班。

Now there's a side to credit acceptance which is really good, which is these people would not even have a car, and they wouldn't even be able to get to work.

但当我向查理提起时，他只说：我们不想拥有这样的生意，他思考的时间还不到五秒。

But when I brought it to Charlie, he just said, we don't want to own that kind of business, and it took him less than five seconds.

他之前从未听说过信贷接受公司。

He'd never heard of Credit Acceptance before.

我花了大约五分钟向他介绍这家企业，他已经在脑海中完成了评估。

I spent about exactly what I told you, about five minutes on the business, and he'd already processed in his head.

我认为他的观点是，他筛选投资时的一个标准是三方共赢。

And I think what his perspective was is that one of the filters that he runs through is win win win.

所有事情都必须是全面共赢的。

Everything has to be a win across the board.

我认为查理看到的是，高利率即使能用一百种方式合理化，也并非如此。

And I think what Charlie saw is that the high interest rates is not even though you could justify it a 100 different ways.

他只是说，这不是我们想做的生意。

He just said it's not the kind of business we want to be in.

所以他的门槛就这么高。

So his bar is this high.

对吧？

Right?

我研究了这个好几周，但这个观点一直没传到我这里。

And I have been looking at that for several weeks, and that particular point never made it through to me.

还有很多非常优秀的投资者持有信用接受公司的股票。

And there are lots of really high quality investors who own credit acceptance.

在许多情况下，这是他们最大的持仓，并且通过了他们的筛选标准。

In many cases, it's their largest position, and it went through their filters.

但它从未通过查理的筛选。

It never went through Charlie's filters.

你知道，这真是一个了不起的头脑。

You know, it's just an amazing brain.

我经常向查理提出问题，这种情况太多了。

Just to see I mean, so many times I've brought up questions to Charlie.

我在达克沙纳面临十字路口的抉择，有点纠结该怎么做。

I'm facing fork in the road issues at Dakshana, and I'm kind of torn about what to do.

我花了大约五分钟向查理解释了这个问题。

And I explained the issue in about five minutes to Charlie.

他从未去过印度。

He's never been to India.

他却能给出一个答案，而且总是完美的答案。

He comes up with an answer, and it's always the perfect answer.

我说，我怎么没想到这一点？

I said, why didn't I think of that?

我为什么会对此感到困惑？

Why was I confused about it?

我还记得，多年前你决定要创办一家保险公司，你打算复制沃伦和查理在廉价连锁店的做法，并利用浮存金变得超级超级超级富有，而不仅仅是变得超级富有。

I remember also when you decided years ago that you were gonna set up an insurance business, and you decided that you were gonna clone what Warren and Charlie had done in a cheap chain, and you were you were gonna use the float to become super super super rich as opposed to just super rich.

我记得，查理当时只是看着你，微微摇了摇头。

And Charlie, if I remember rightly, just looked at you and kinda shook his head.

是这样吗？

And is that right?

他是不是立刻就看出了你并不适合经营这家保险公司，而你更适合经营达克沙纳和帕莱基金？

Like, was there something that he saw instantly that he saw about you that you were not wired to run that business as well as you were wired to run Dakshana and to run Parai Funds?

而且，我认为很多年前他曾对我说过，在非常长远的未来，保险业务在伯克希尔只会占很小一部分。

Well, and I think he made a comment to me many years ago where he said in the very long run, insurance will be a small part of Berkshire.

这是一个非常了不起的论断。

It's a very remarkable statement.

我的意思是，如果你看看今天的伯克希尔，保险业务占据了主导地位。

I mean, if you look at Berkshire today, insurance dominates.

他们刚刚收购了阿勒格尼等公司。

They just bought Allegheny and so on.

我认为他可能说对了，如果放眼二三十年后，谁知道保险业务会变成什么规模。

And I think he may be right about that, that if you go twenty, thirty years out, who knows what the size of the insurance business is.

我的意思是，如果你随着时间推移停止承保不同险种，那么浮存金就会减少等等。

I mean, basically, if you stop writing different lines over time, that float is going to go down and so on.

是的，实际上保险业务中有一些非常基础的东西，我在决定涉足时忽略了，后来以昂贵的代价才明白：伯克希尔的保险业务与其他任何业务都完全不同，而且保险业真的很难赚钱。

Yeah, and actually there are some very elementary things about the insurance business And that I missed when I decided to go down that I learned in a very expensive way that the Berkshire insurance operation is a completely different operation than anything else, and that insurance is a really tough way to make make a living.

这是一项非常困难的业务。

It's a really difficult business.

你提到了他们

And you you mentioned They

看起来很简单，但实际上很难。

it look simple, but it's really hard.

你最终把业务卖给了弗朗西斯·丘。

You eventually sold the business to Francis Chew.

对吧？

Right?

弗朗西斯，我的意思是，他在建立 Fairfax 的过程中也发挥了关键作用。

And Francis I mean, Francis had played an integral role in building Fairfax as well.

你显然非常了解弗朗西斯和 Fairfax 的普雷姆·沃特。

And and you obviously know Francis and Prem Watter from Fairfax very well.

是什么让他们和伯克希尔的阿吉特·贾因能够做到这些，而你却没有，查理却能看出这并不适合你？

Was there something that enabled them and Ajit Jain at Berkshire to do this stuff that's sort of a secret source that you didn't have and that Charlie could see that it didn't suit you?

我认为保险业务本质上非常困难。

I think insurance inherently is a really difficult business.

我认为在今年的伯克希尔年会上，沃伦也提到了这一点。

And I think even this year at the Berkshire meeting Warren alluded to that.

他说，从1970年到1986年，或者说从1985年到吉恩出现之前，他一直在挣扎。

He said from 1970 to 1986 or 'eighty five till a Gin showed up, I think 'eighty six till a Gin showed up, He was struggling.

他拥有多家保险公司，结果惨败，综合赔付率高达140%之类的情况。

He had multiple insurance companies that blew up on him, like really bad, like 140% combined ratios and such.

非常难看。

Was pretty ugly.

当沃伦进入保险行业时，他接手的是一家卓越的公司。

When Warren entered the insurance business, he entered with a great business.

由杰克·林格瓦尔创立的国家赔偿公司是一家非凡的保险公司，因为他们从事的是其他公司不愿做的超额损失险业务。

National Indemnity created by Jack Ringwald was an incredible insurance company because they were doing excess surplus lines that others were not doing.

他们拥有很高的利润率和盈利能力，仅仅因为当时很少有竞争对手愿意承保出租车这类业务。

They had a lot of margin and profitability just because there wasn't that much competition, insuring taxi cabs and that sort of thing that most insurers are not willing to do.

他从一个优秀的核心业务起步，但后来试图扩张时，业务就崩溃了，直到阿吉特出现，情况才开始好转。

He started with a great core, and then when he tried to expand things blew up for him till Ajit showed up, and then things started running better.

即使在富达，富达在保险业务上也经历了许多消化不良的问题。

Even at Fairfax, Fairfax has had a lot of indigestion with insurance.

他们收购了多家保险公司，这些公司给他们带来了巨大的麻烦。

They've had a number of businesses that they bought, insurance companies that bought, that have given them huge problems.

综合比率飙升，收购价格也变得非常高，等等诸如此类的问题。

The combined ratios went crazy and the purchase price turned out to be very, very high and so on and so forth.

即使对于最优秀的人而言，这都是一个难以经营的行业。

It's a difficult business even for the best of them to run.

GEICO很特殊，它们经营得不错，但即便现在，你也能看到它们在核保方面面临问题，不如Progressive等公司表现好，原因在于它们没有在远程信息处理技术等方面进行投资。

GEICO is unusual and they've run well, but even now you can see that on the underwriting side they're having issues versus being as good as Progressive and so on just because they haven't invested in the telematics and all of that.

从保险业中，我得到了两三个真正的教训。

The lesson I got from insurance, there were really two or three lessons that came out.

其中之一是，这是一个非常奇特的行业，因为你销售的产品，其真实成本要到五到十年后才能知道。

One is that it's a really bizarre business because you sell a product whose real cost you don't know until five or ten years from.

我决定卖给你一份保单，但我直到五年后才知道这笔保单是盈利还是亏损，而我的定价是基于模型的，但这些模型可能不准，世界的发展也可能与预期不同。

I decide to sell you a policy, and I don't really know if I want to make or lose money on that policy until five years have passed, and I'm basing the pricing based on models, but those models can be off, and the world can unfold in a different way.

其中一件让我非常高兴的事情是，弗朗西斯在保险运营方面比我强得多。

One of the things that happened, which I'm really happy about, is that Francis is a much better operator for insurance than I am.

我认为我卖给他这家公司，在弗朗西斯的管理下表现得极其出色。

I think the company I sold him has done extremely well under Francis.

我认为如果由我来管理，公司不会表现得这么好。

I don't think it would have done as well under me.

但另外让他受益巨大的是，我们经历了两年的疫情，没人去上班，工伤保险的保费已经支付，但因为没人上班，所以没有理赔。

But also what happened that gave him massive tailwinds is we had two years of pandemic, and no one went to work, and the workers' comp policy, the premiums already paid, there were no claims because nobody's at work.

没有工作场所的伤害。

There's no workplace injuries.

因此，过去几年他们获得了巨大的承保利润，这为他们提供了很好的缓冲，但随着人们开始更多地回到工作岗位，这种情况将会改变。

And so they had huge underwriting profits for the last couple of years, which gave them a very nice cushion, and that will change now as people start spending more time at work and so on.

这在一定程度上是巨大的顺风，但他还因为在2020年3月世界陷入混乱时持有国库券而获得了巨大优势。

That was partially a great tailwind, but he also got a great tailwind because he was sitting in treasury bills in March 2000 when the world went upside down, March 2020.

然后他开始行动，以疯狂的价格买入债券，也取得了非常好的收益。

And then he went to work and bought bonds at crazy prices and did really well as well.

威廉，是的。

William Yeah.

那之后不久，他给我打了电话，向我详细介绍了他私下所做的事情。

He called me sometime after that and he took me through what he had done just privately.

这有点非同寻常，因为当我为《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》采访他时，他曾说找不到任何可以买入的东西。

It was kind of extraordinary because I I guess when I was interviewing him for Richer, Wiser, Happier, he had said there was nothing he could find to buy.

他说，是的，我可以就这样什么都不做，坐上十年。

He and he was like, yeah, I could just sit here doing nothing for ten years.

然后他真的闲坐了好几年，看起来有点傻，因为他只是坐在一堆干火药上。

And then he sat around doing nothing for years, and he looked kind of foolish because he was just sort of sitting on all of this dry gunpowder.

这完美地体现了查理·芒格那种钓鲑鱼式的理念——你知道，他描绘的那位渔夫静静地站在溪边，一动不动。

And it was such a beautiful example of that kind of Charlie Munger approach of salmon fishing where you know, his beautiful image of the spearfishman waiting by the side of the stream doing nothing.

但偶尔，一条肥美多汁的鲑鱼游过，一个新机会出现。

And then once in a while, a fat juicy salmon swims by a new spirit.

弗朗西斯看起来就像一个完全过时的投资者。

Here was Francis who looked like this kind of totally outmoded investor.

但实际上，他突然在一瞬间捕获了这么多鲑鱼，让他在十年沉寂之后，又重新显得像个天才。

And in fact, he suddenly spears so many salmon in one fell swoop that it it kind of makes him look like a genius again after ten years lying fallow.

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，如果你看一下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司，他们最初的核心投资——伯克希尔·哈撒韦纺织厂，结果非常糟糕。

And actually, if you look at Berkshire Hathaway, their core purchase, which is Berkshire Hathaway textile mills turned out to be horrible.

他们所有涉足保险领域的尝试，在十五年间都表现糟糕，而纺织业务更是糟糕了二十年。

All their forays into insurance turned out to be horrible for fifteen years, and the textile business was horrible for twenty years.

我们在关闭它之前，一直经营了二十年。

They ran it for twenty years before we shut it down.

尽管如此，我们却从这一切中发展出了一个惊人的业务。

In spite of all of that, we have this amazing business that came out of all of that.

我认为芒格反复告诉我的是，我们现在不可能再做当年那样的事了。

I think what Munger told me repeatedly is we could not do what we did then now.

他说，这个世界竞争激烈多了。

He said the world is a lot more competitive.

市场也高效多了。

Markets are a lot more efficient.

他说，我们当时能找到的那种机会——就像在空桶里打鱼——现在再也找不到了。

We could not do the kinds of stuff, he said, we were finding where we go shooting fish in a barrel when the barrel is empty.

他说，我们根本做不到那样。

He said, we just couldn't do that.

我们现在没法做这种事了。

We can't do that kind of stuff now.

他还说，如果我们不是学习型机器，我们的业绩将会黯然失色，这一点他也在公开场合说过。

The other thing he said, which he also said publicly, said our record would be a shadow of itself if we were not learning machines.

我认为，C公司、蓝筹印花、水牛城新闻、多元化零售业都给了他们很多教训，甚至纺织厂和保险业务也是如此。

I think what happened is that C taught them a lot of lessons, blue chip stamps taught them a lot of lessons, Buffalo News taught them a lot of lessons, and diversified retailing taught them a lot of lessons, and even the textile mill and the insurance for it.

这些人的关键在于他们是学习型机器，并且善于吸收。

The important thing with these guys was they were learning machines and they absorbed.

我其实非常庆幸自己进入了保险行业。

I am actually really happy that I went into the insurance business.

它并没有成功。

It did not work out.

但我并没有血本无归。

I didn't lose my shirt.

我把钱拿回来了。

Got my money back.

如果我犯了错误但能把钱拿回来，我会非常高兴。

If I make a mistake and I get my money back, I'm really happy.

但我学到了一个巨大的教训：三十倍的损失，而且

But I learned a tremendous one:thirty amount, and

我知道我不会再去了。

I know I won't go there again.

去过，做过，买过T

Been there, done that, got the t

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的消息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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这正是 Alexa 和 AWS AI 背后的故事。

That's the story behind Alexa and AWS AI.

每天，Alexa 在 17 种语言中处理超过 10 亿次交互，同时将客户摩擦降低 40%。

Every day, Alexa processes over 1,000,000,000 interactions across 17 languages, all while reducing customer friction by 40%.

这不仅仅是让生活更轻松，更是改变客户互动并创造新的收入来源。

It's not just about making life easier, it's also about transforming customer engagement and generating new revenue streams.

在幕后，AWS AI 驱动着 70 多个专用模型协同工作，打造自然对话，证明企业如何自信且安全地大规模部署 AI。

Behind the scenes, AWS AI powers more than 70 specialized models working together to create natural conversations, proving how enterprises can deploy AI at scale with confidence and security.

Alexa 的 AI 能力在亚马逊庞大的运营中经过实战检验，实现了大规模的可衡量实际影响。

Alexa's AI capabilities were battle tested across Amazon's massive operations, delivering real measurable impact at scale.

这些相同的创新现在为其他企业提供了经过验证的框架，以提升效率、解锁新的收入来源并获得持久的市场优势。

These same innovations now give other businesses a proven framework to boost efficiency, unlock new revenue streams and gain a lasting market edge.

访问 aws.comai/rstory 了解 Alexa 的故事。

Discover the Alexa story at aws.comai/rstory.

网址是 aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

你的比特币持有量增长得越多，面临的挑战就越复杂。

The more your Bitcoin holdings grow, the more complex your challenges become.

最初简单的自托管，如今已涉及家族传承规划、复杂的安全决策，以及应对单一失误可能损失数代财富的境况。

What started as a simple self custody now involves family legacy planning, sophisticated security decisions, and navigating situations where a single mistake could cost generations of wealth.

标准服务并未为这些高风险的现实情况而设计。

Standard services weren't built for these high stakes realities.

因此，长期投资者选择 Unchained Signature——一项专为认真持有比特币者打造的高端私人客户服务，提供专业指导、稳健托管和持久的合作关系。

That's why long term investors choose Unchained Signature, a premium private client service for serious Bitcoin holders who want expert guidance, resilient custody, and an enduring partnership.

使用 Signature 服务，您将获得专属客户经理，他们了解您的目标，并在每一步为您提供帮助。

With Signature, you're paired with your own dedicated account manager, someone who understands your goals and helps you every step of the way.

您将享受全方位的入职服务、当日紧急支持、个性化教育、降低交易费用，以及优先参与独家活动和功能。

You get white glove onboarding, same day emergency support, personalized education, reduced trading fees, and priority access to exclusive events and features.

Unchained的协作托管模式旨在为那些希望自行保管密钥的用户，提供与全球最大的比特币托管机构同等的安全保障。

Unchained's collaborative custody model is designed to provide the same security posture as the world's biggest Bitcoin custodians, but for those who prefer to hold their own keys.

了解更多关于Unchained Signature的信息，请访问 unchained.com/preston。

Learn more about Unchained signature at unchained.com/preston.

结账时使用代码 Preston 10，即可享受首年10%折扣。

Use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first year.

比特币不仅仅是为了人生。

Bitcoin isn't just for life.

更是为了世代传承。

It's for generations.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我对你印象深刻，莫尼什，我见过你多次对某件事抱有极强的信念，认为这是个绝妙的点子，然后你告诉我和其他人这是多么棒的主意，我们都完全被说服了。

I'm struck with you, Monish, about how many times I've seen you do something that you have a very high conviction about, and you think this is a fantastic idea, and you tell me and other people what brilliant idea it is, and we're all totally sold on it.

但几个月后，你却说：不，这行不通。

And then a few months later, you're like, Nope, didn't work.

你对此非常理性，毫不留恋。

You're very unsentimental about it.

我见过你对像Seritage、阿里巴巴或你运营的这家保险业务这样的事情都这样做。

You change I've seen you do it with things like Seritage that you owned or Alibaba or this insurance business that you were running.

这让我觉得，你的一个巨大优势就是：观点强烈，但随时愿意改变。

And it strikes me actually as one of your great strengths is it is kind of strong opinions likely held.

你有这种改变的意愿。

There's this willingness to change.

你能谈谈这一点吗？

Can you talk a bit about that?

因为这似乎是你行事方式的核心。

Because it seems very fundamental to the way you operate.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我认为，如果我们回溯到约翰·邓普顿，他会说最好的分析师每三次判断中会错一次。

So I think if we go back to John Templeton, he would say that the best analysts would be wrong one out of three times.

事实上，他曾是普雷姆·瓦尔萨和富兰克林的导师，普雷姆每年都会去巴哈马一次，与约翰·邓普顿共度时光。

And in fact, he was a mentor to Prem Watsa, Fairfax, and Prem would go to Bahamas once a year to spend time with John Templeton.

约翰·邓普顿告诉他，如果你有一半的时间是错的，你最终仍能取得惊人的业绩记录。

John Templeton told him he told Prem that if you're wrong half the time, you're going to end up with a tremendous track record.

我们必须记住的一点是，投资中的错误率，即使对我们最优秀的人而言，也会非常高。

One of the things we have to remember about investing is that the error rate, even for the best of us, is going to be really high.

这正是查理让我去和李洛交谈的原因之一。

And this was one of the reasons why Charlie told me to talk to Lilo.

这同时也是原因之一，事实上，他最近告诉我，他记得有一次对我说：‘你买了茅台？’

It was one of the reasons why and in fact, you know, he said to me recently, he said I remember one time he told me, he said, so you bought Mau Tai?

我说：‘是的。’

I said, yeah.

他说，很好。

He said, good.

好的。

Okay.

然后最近他跟我说，你和李露合作了美光公司。

And then then recently he said to me, you and, Lee Lou collaborated on Micron.

我说，是的。

I said, yeah.

他说，这个点子是你提出的。

He said the idea came from you.

我说，是的。

I said, yeah.

他说，这会表现得很好。

He said, it will do very well.

好的。

Okay.

我说，能得到上帝这样的认可真是太好了，因为在保险行业里我从未得到过这样的认可。

I said, It's great to have God give that kind of endorsement because I didn't get that in the insurance business from there.

我认为关键是，我们必须清醒地意识到这50%的错误率，并对此保持谦逊。

I think the thing is that this 50% error rate, we have to be really cognizant of, and we have to be humble about it.

你说得对。

You're right.

我对事情容易兴奋，而投资的本质就是贪婪会占据我们的大脑。

I get excited about things, and this is the nature of investing is that greed takes over our brains.

我们看到这家公司，看到潜在的收益，贪婪就占据了上风。

We look at this company, we look at the upside, and the greed takes over.

我们必须建立人为的机制来抑制这种情绪。

We have to have artificial mechanisms to dampen it down.

与他人交谈是一种抑制贪婪的方法。

Talking to someone else is a way to dampen it down.

使用检查清单是另一种抑制贪婪的方法。

Having a checklist is another way to dampen it down.

找一个持有完全相反观点的人并与之交谈，是另一种抑制情绪的方式。

Having somebody who actually has a completely opposite point of view and talking to them is another way to dampen.

因此，我们需要为所有投资想法设置熔断机制，因为动物精神会失控——事实上，我今天就发现了一家我非常喜欢的公司。

So we need circuit breakers with all our investment ideas because the animal spirits will run wild because you would see Today, in fact, I came across a business that I really like.

我还需要深入研究，但目前我看不出它有什么问题，只是我还没做足够的工作。

I still have to drill down on it, but at this point I can't see what would be wrong with it, but I haven't done the work yet.

在我采取任何行动之前，最重要的是使用检查清单、与他人交流，并努力获得全面的视角，然后再决定是否要参与这项投资。

It will be really important for me before I do anything with it is to run the checklist, talk to others, and just really try to get a rounded view and then see whether I still want to do something with it or not.

我认为投资中有两件重要的事情。

I think that there are two things that are important in investing.

一是我们必须清楚地意识到，这并不是脑外科手术，当你认为利率是坏消息时，情况并非如此。

One is that we have to be very cognizant about the fact that this is not brain surgery where you think the center of rate is bad news.

你会有很高的错误率。

You're going to have a high error rate.

第二是，当你正确时，你可以非常正确，可能获得十倍、二十倍甚至更高的回报，这足以弥补许多错误。

The second is that when you are right, you can be really right, and you could have a 10 bagger, 20 bagger or something, would cover a lot of sins.

另一件事是要有谦逊，承认自己犯了错误。

And the other thing is to have the humility to realize when you have been wrong.

我的意思是，Seritage 是个很好的例子，我当时觉得我从各个角度都仔细分析过了，觉得它一定会成功。

I mean, Seritage is a good example where I thought that I looked at it n ways to Sunday, and it was going to work.

但最终我得出结论：不，我的分析出错了。

And then I finally came to the conclusion that, no, there was an error.

我的分析中存在错误，要让它按我设想的方式运作，需要付出巨大的努力。

There's an error in my analysis and that it was going to be some pretty heavy lifting to make it work the way I thought it should.

是因为在不同地区进行重新开发太困难了吗？

Because it was too difficult to do the redevelopment in different parts of the country?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这就像有150个巴尔干国家，每个都有150套不同的规则和法律。

I think it's like you've got 150 Balkan states with 150 rules and laws.

即使我看像德克萨斯州奥斯汀这样的地方，那里严重缺乏住房以及其他房地产问题，但获得许可和批准新建住房的流程却极其缓慢。

Even if I look at a place like Austin, Texas, which has severe housing shortages and severe other real estate issues, the entitlement process and the process for allowing new housing to be created is excruciatingly slow.

政府的运作速度非常缓慢，他们并不特别关心我们正面临这些危机，需要更多的住房等等。

The wheels of government work very slow, and they don't particularly care that we've got these crises and we need more housing and all of that.

他们有自己的标准和条件要考量。

They've got their own set of criteria and conditions that they're looking at.

Seritage投资组合的重建非常复杂。

The redevelopment of the portfolio at Seritage is very complicated.

我认为这比我想象或预期的要复杂得多，我意识到他们要完全理解并真正完成这项工作所需的时间会非常长，其次，我认为他们没有合适的团队。

I think it's a lot more complicated than I had imagined or expected, and I realized that the time it would take them to get their arms around that whole thing and to actually get it done would be really difficult, and the second thing is I didn't think they had the team.

我得出的第二个结论是，首席执行官离职了，新团队人员流动很大。

The second conclusion I came to, the CEO left, and the new team, they had a lot of turnover.

我第二个担忧是，即使有一个优秀的团队，也会觉得很有挑战性。

The second concern I had was with a great team, they would find it challenging.

如果团队质量可疑，那根本不可能实现。

With a questionable team, it was not going to happen at all.

因此，在那个时候，我说我们仍然有收益。

And so at at that point, I said that we still had a gain.

我们买得非常便宜。

We bought it so cheap.

我们仍然有收益。

We still have a gain.

就像石信托一样，我可以卖，我的意思是，石信托我们只有很小的收益。

And like Stone Trust, I could sell an I mean, Stone Trust, we have a small gain.

这个收益要大一点。

This is little larger gain.

我说，这太棒了。

I said, this is awesome.

我们可以无损失地退出，所以我们想这么做。

We can get out without a loss, and so we wanna do that.

所以在你意识到自己犯了错误的时刻，你非常理性。

So you're very unsentimental when you get to these moments where you think, I made a mistake.

你的做法，我觉得你在马蹄铁公司也是这样，盖伊一直坚持着。

You kind of I mean, I think you did it with Horsehead as well where Guy held on

法律。

law.

你有没有和像霍华德·马克斯这样的人交谈过？每次我听霍华德·马克斯讲话，我都觉得我在听一个机器人。

Think you've talked to people like Howard Marks, and many times when I listen to Howard Marks, I think I'm listening to a robot.

我不是在贬低他。

I don't mean that in a negative sense.

我只是觉得他对事情的语气太单调了，我无法想象霍华德会变得极度情绪化。

Just think he's so monotone about things, and I cannot imagine someone like Howard getting crazily emotional.

我只是想象不出他是那种人。

I just don't have a picture that he's that kind of guy.

是的。

Yeah.

我总是说，和霍华德在一起就像和一台最顶尖的机器在一起。

I always say being with Howard is like being with a most superior machine.

你感觉他就像一台非常理性的引擎，但同时这也存在一个真正的悖论：他非常有创造力，他的很多过程实际上是印象派的，依赖直觉。

You like he just has this really good rational engine, But at the same time, there's this real paradox, which is that he's super creative and that a lot of his process is actually impressionistic and based on gut.

这些事情没有一件是简单的。

None of this stuff is simple.

前几天我和比尔·米勒有过类似的对话，这个内容很快会在播客中播出，他谈到自己如此冷静，但他说实际上我经常哭。

I had a similar conversation with Bill Miller the other day that that'll come out on the podcast soon where he said was talking to him about being so unemotional, and he said, Actually, I cry quite a lot.

我不记得他是说在电影里还是在音乐里，我觉得是后者。

I can't remember whether he said it's in movies or in music, I think it was.

是的。

There's a Yeah.

我的意思是，当我跟查理谈论股票或其他话题时，他的理性程度非常高，极其理性，我认为理性是一种非常重要的特质。

I mean, I would say I would say that when I talk to Charlie about stocks or different subjects, there's a very high degree of rationality, extremely high degree of rationality, and I think rationality is a really important trait.

如果你不够客观，我认为你无法做好这些事情。

I don't think you can do these things if you're not going to be objective.

我认为耐心在投资中非常重要。

I think patience is really important in investing.

这是最重要的技能之一。

It's one of the most important skills.

理性位居前列。

Rationality is up there.

我认为当我们意识到必须忠于自己时。

Think that when we realize we have to be true to ourselves.

当我们意识到自己犯了错误，就不能欺骗自己。

When we realize we've made a mistake, you cannot lie to yourself.

你必须坦诚面对自己犯了错误的事实，然后继续前进。

You have to be candid about the fact that you've made a mistake, and you have to move on and go from there.

关于理性这个话题，我差点忘了问你：大约一年前，我在火岛做了一场演讲，我记得那里住着很多基金经理。

On this subject of rationality, before I forget to ask you this, I was giving a talk about a year or so ago on Fire Island, and I remember there are a lot of money managers living out there.

我在谈论那本书时，提到了查理，说他多么情绪稳定，以及他在2009年市场触底时买入富国银行，完全没有任何恐惧、焦虑或担忧。

I was talking about the book, I said something about Charlie and how unemotional he is and how when he bought Wells Fargo at the bottom tick in 2009, he just had no fear, no anxiety, nothing about it.

我当时说他多么情绪稳定，像比尔·米勒和霍华德·马克斯这样的顶级投资者也都如此。

And I was saying how unemotional he was and how that's the same with people like Bill Miller and Howard Marks, all of the best investors.

克里斯·戴维斯与查理关系密切，现在是伯克希尔的董事会成员，非常了解他们两人，演讲后他来找过我。

And Chris Davis, is close to Charlie and is now on the board of Berkshire and knows them both very well, sort of came up to me afterwards.

他说，这并不完全正确。

He's like, It's not entirely right.

事情没那么简单。

It's more nuanced than that.

因为如果我没记错的话，他曾谈到，当查理的对冲基金——也就是他上世纪七十年代的有限合伙企业——在73至74年那段艰难时期遭遇惨重亏损时，他感到让股东们失望是极其痛苦的。

Because if I remember rightly, he was talking about how when things went horribly wrong for Charlie's hedge fund, his limited partnership back in the seventies, I guess, during that brutal period around 7374, he said it was extraordinarily painful for him to be letting down shareholders.

你能谈谈这个吗，阮？因为我总觉得还没完全理解你们那些伟大投资者为何如此冷静。

Can you talk about that, Nguyen, because I feel like I haven't quite cracked this idea of how unemotional your great investors are.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我和查理聊过那段时期，他说，当他于1974年清算合伙企业时，他把所有资产以实物形式分配给了合伙人。

I mean, I think I talked to Charlie about that period, and he said that basically when he wound up his partnership in 'seventy four, he distributed all the holdings in kind to his partners.

他把那些持仓直接给了他们，并告诉他们：别做任何操作，就继续持有。

He gave them the positions and he told them, Don't do anything, just keep them.

最终，许多这些持仓都转化为了伯克希尔的股票，成了大赢家。

Eventually a lot of those positions got converted into Berkshire stock, and they were big home runs.

意思是，像蓝筹股之类的，还有不同的零售业务等等。

Mean, like blue chip and different things got diversified retailing and so on.

全都合并到了伯克希尔。

All got rolled into Berkshire.

所以他说，最后，所有这些都表现得非常好。

And so he said in the end, all of them did really well.

我认为他在那时决定不再管理资金。

And I think he decided that at that point he did not want to manage money.

他决定在1974年，那不是他想走的方向。

Think he decided at the '4 that that wasn't the direction he wanted to go in.

于是他做出了这个决定，把每个人都带到了一个良好的终点，然后继续前行。

And so he made that decision and got everyone actually to a good endpoint and moved on.

当你评判他缺乏情感时，你会如何描述他？

When you judge his lack of emotion, like, is it how would you characterize him?

因为他显然——我之前去采访他为这本书做准备时，就有这样的预期，我想，天啊，他不容忍傻瓜，说话直接，甚至可能非常粗鲁。

Because he's clearly I I had this expectation before I went to interview him, for example, for the book, and I thought, god, he's he doesn't suffer fools and he's brusque and he can be really rude.

他有时以出名的粗鲁著称。

He's sort of famous famously rude at times.

我记得比尔·米勒告诉我，他曾经在纽约碰见查理，打招呼说：‘查理，你好。’

Like, I remember Bill Miller telling me that he'd walked into him in in New York once he'd run into him and said, Charlie, hi.

查理却转过身来问他：‘你他妈是谁？’

And and Charlie turns to him and says, who the hell are you?

但后来他们一起散步，聊了一个小时。

And then they end up walking together and chatting for an hour.

你告诉过我：不，不是这样的。

And you told me, No, no.

他其实是个非常温柔、非常善良的人。

He's like this really soft, really sweet guy.

所以，他确实是一个更温和、更柔软的人。

So there is something there where he's a much gentler and softer human being.

因此我在想，除了他是一个极度理性的人之外，是否还有一面温柔的情感特质，或者这些伟大的理性机器是否都伴随着某种情感上的停滞？

So I'm wondering if in addition to being this kind of hyper rational thinker, there is this sort of soft emotional side or or whether there's a kind of emotional stuntedness that comes with a lot of these great rational machines?

我认为沃伦和查理都有美好的灵魂，只是这些灵魂被一层坚硬的外壳包裹着。

Well, I think I think both Warren and Charlie have beautiful souls, and those soles are covered with a hard exterior.

他们被这层坚硬外壳包裹的原因，我认为是为了不让自己受到伤害。

The reason they are covered with a hard exterior is so they, I think, don't get hurt.

有太多人带着各种事情来找他们，所以我认为这层外壳保护了他们。

They have a lot of people coming at them with all kinds of things, and so I think this exterior protects them.

但当你进入他们的核心圈子时，这个核心圈子并不会接触到那层坚硬的外壳。

But I think when you get to their inner circle, the inner circle doesn't deal with the hard exterior.

你只是在和这个人本身相处，这就是为什么我觉得，当我跟查理打桥牌或共进晚餐时，他和在伯克希尔会议的舞台上等场合表现得截然不同。

You're just dealing with the person, and that's why I find that Charlie is a very different person when I'm playing bridge with him or when I'm having dinner with him versus at the Berkshire meeting, for example, on stage and so on.

这是两个非常不同的人。

Those are two very different people.

他有着非常丰富的情感。

He has a very high degree of emotions.

我认为他能够控制自己的情绪。

I think he's able to control them.

在我个人生活中的诸多困境中，查理给了我很多宝贵的建议，我感受到他的同理心非常强烈。

I have had a lot of great input into struggles I had in my personal life from Charlie where I found that the empathy level was really high.

这些讨论与投资、金钱或任何类似的事情无关。

So these were not discussions related to investments or money or any of those things.

它们关乎人性本身。

They were related to human things.

当我婚姻出现问题时，和他谈论这些事，他表现得非常出色。

When I was having trouble in my marriage and I discussed those things with him, he was amazing.

他简直不可思议，能够帮助我度过难关，并给了我极大的建议。

He was just incredible and was able to see me through and gave me tremendous advice.

最终，我认为我现在比以前好得多，而查理起到了非常重要的作用。

In the end, I think I'm in a much better place now than I used to be, and so Charlie was very helpful.

这一切都源于他那颗温暖、柔软、充满高度同理心和情感理解力的心灵，这真是太美好了。

That came from this really warm, soft person with a very high empathy and high emotional understanding and such, so that was beautiful.

有趣的是，你看到他身上这种特质：外表略显强硬、令人畏惧，但内心却十分温柔。

It's interesting to me that you see this quality in him of having this kind of slightly tough, scary exterior, but a gentle interior.

因为我觉得这其实也很适合描述你，因为你总是有点让人感到压力。

Because I actually think that's probably a pretty good description of you as well, because I sort of You're always kind of slightly intimidating.

而且实际上，随着这些年我越来越了解你、和你成为朋友，我发现你那盛气凌人和强烈观点之下，其实有着温柔的一面。

And actually, I think the more I've got to know you and become friends with you over the years, I think there's a softness under the bombast and opinion.

我猜当你在他身上看到这一点时，你也在某种程度上看到了自己？

I suspect when you see that in him, you're also kind of seeing it in yourself?

嗯，我觉得是的。

Well, I think so.

对我来说，真正改变人生、极大丰富我生活的一件事，就是我加入了YPO。

One of the things that really was, I think, life altering for me and enhanced my life a lot was my membership in YPO.

YPO，即年轻总裁组织，其中一个特点是我们会被分到八到十二人的小组，称为论坛。

One of the things that happens in YPO, which is Young President's Organization, is we get put into these groups of eight to 12 which are forum.

论坛的有趣之处在于，论坛内的一切都是保密的，正因为连我的配偶我都不能分享论坛里的内容，人们反而愿意敞开心扉，谈论他们甚至不会对密友透露的事情。

The interesting thing about forum is that everything that goes on in forum is confidential, and because I cannot even share with my spouse what's going on, people are willing to open up about things that they would never open up even with very good friends.

我发现，当人们在论坛中敞开心扉时，奇迹就会发生。

What I found is that in forum magic happens when you open up.

很多次，这种事情都发生在我身上。

Like many times, this has happened to me.

我已经加入了YPO二十五年了。

I've been in YPO for twenty five years.

我经常遇到问题，反复在脑子里琢磨上百遍，却始终找不到好的解决方案。

Many times I have a problem, and I've wrestled with this problem in my head a 100 times, I can't really find a good solution.

我会想，我要把这个问题带到我的论坛小组里，但我又觉得这些人帮不上忙，因为我已经想了很多遍了，我挺聪明的，等等。

And I say, I'm going to take it to my forum, but I don't think these guys can help me because I've already thought about it, I'm pretty smart, etcetera.

我把它带到小组里，大约三十分钟内，他们就解决了。

I take it to the group, and in about thirty minutes, they've solved it.

明白吗？

Okay?

这种事情在我的人生中发生了太多次，我简直震惊了。

And this has happened so many times in my life that I'm just stunned.

我对它感到震惊。

I'm stunned by it.

因此，我逐渐意识到，这一点很多人类都不理解：为了从查理那里获得最大价值，我必须把所有牌都摊在桌面上，无论好坏丑陋。

And so what I have come to realize, which a lot of humans don't understand, what I realized is that in order for me to get the most value from Charlie, I have to put my cards on the table, the good, the bad, the ugly.

我必须把所有牌都摊出来，让他看到完整的画面，而这对人类来说并不容易。

I've got to put all the cards on the table, and I've got to have him see the whole picture, and that is not easy for the human being to do.

记得第一次，我想是2012年或2013年，我当时在感情上遇到问题，和李·卢谈过这件事。

Remember the first time, I think it was 2012 or 2013 when I was having issues in my relationship, and I had talked to Lee Lou about it.

他说，你真的应该跟查理谈谈，因为他帮我度过了几段难关；于是我去见了查理，把所有事情都坦诚相告，而如果我没有在YPO长期积累的经验，我是不可能如此坦诚的——因为我早已明白，当你把牌摊开时，奇迹就会发生。

He said, You really should talk to Charlie about this, because he helped me through a few things, but he said And so I met Charlie, and I just laid my cards out, and I could not have laid my cards out if I didn't have that very long history with YPO where I understood that when you lay your cards out, magic happens.

我当时是在上帝面前摊牌，而这位上帝超越了凡人。

And I was laying my cards out in front of God who's beyond human.

明白吗？

Okay?

他只用了大约五分钟。

And it took him like five minutes.

他不到五分钟就理清了头绪，然后说：好吧，这就是你处理这件事的方式。

It took him less than five minutes to sort through it and said, Okay, this is how you're going to deal with this.

他不仅告诉我该如何处理，还告诉我结果会是什么。

Not only did he tell me how to deal with it, he told me what the outcome would be.

他说：听着，这就是你要做的，这就是结果，我们会一起走向美好的未来。

He said, Listen, this is what you're going to do, and this is what the outcome's gonna be, and this is where we're gonna ride off into the sunset.

事情完全按照他说的发生了。

And it happened exactly the way he said.

这真是太美妙了。

It's just beautiful.

这是源于非凡的模式识别能力还是情商？

Is that from extraordinary pattern recognition or EQ?

这种能力是从哪里来的？

Where is that coming from?

有趣的是，查理告诉我他不读小说，也不怎么看电影。

The funny thing is, you know, Charlie told me he doesn't read fiction, and I don't think he sees many movies.

我不太想深入谈这个，因为很多事都很私密，但他给我推荐了一部电影的名字。

I don't really wanna go into this because a lot of this is very personal, but he gave me the name of a movie.

他说，你看过这部电影吗？

He said, did you see this movie?

我说，看过了。

I said, yeah.

他说，再去看一遍。

He said, go see it again.

好吗？

Okay?

于是我去了。

And I did.

这次，我是带着他所谈论的背景去看的。

And this time I saw it from the context of what he was talking about.

所以你看，有个人用一部好莱坞电影来帮我解决我遇到的问题，而我根本没想到他竟然会看这种电影，比如。

So it's like, you know, here's a guy who's bringing up Hollywood movie to help me with some issue that I'm having, and I didn't think he would even have ever watched a movie like that, for example.

他看过太多了。

Think he's seen so much.

即使他跟我谈论这些问题时，也会提到他那些有过类似经历的朋友，他见识过太多东西了。

Even when he was talking to me about the issues, he brought up his friends who had had similar issues, and he's seen so much.

我的意思是，98岁啊，你简直见过世间万象。

Mean, 98, I mean, you've seen everything under the sun.

他有八个孩子。

He's got eight kids.

他还有孙子孙女。

He's got grandkids.

他有儿媳、女婿，还有前妻和现任妻子，等等一切。

He's got daughter in laws and son in laws and second wife and first wife and all of that.

还有很多朋友、商业伙伴，以及曾经对他们耍手段的人，等等。

There's a lot of friends and business associates and people who have acted below the belt with them and all of that.

他们都见识过这一切。

They've seen all of that.

所以沃伦和查理都能做到的是，他们非常善于理解人性，极其擅长洞察人际关系的动态。

So what both of them are able to do, Warren and Charlie have been able to do, they're able to understand humans so well, and they're so good at understanding their human dynamic.

如果我觉得查理是个伟大的投资者，那我觉得他在帮助我解决个人问题方面的能力简直超乎想象。

If I thought Charlie was a great investor, I thought his ability to help me with my personal problems was off the charts.

有一件事让我对沃伦和查理印象深刻，而你对这一点的感受肯定比我更敏锐：我觉得他们俩这些年来作为人，都有了巨大的进步。

One thing that strikes me both about Warren and Charlie that you would have a much keener sense of than I do is I think they've both improved tremendously as human beings over the years.

他们一直在自我完善，这一点让我非常触动。

Like, they've worked on themselves, and I I was very struck by that.

我之前提到过，当我参加每日邮报会议时，看到他对待周围人、对待这些门徒的方式，充满了善意。

I've mentioned this before when I went to the Daily Journal meeting, and I saw his kindness in the way that he treated people around him, in the way that he treated these disciples.

我记得当我们的采访结束，他正要离开时，我当然想留住他，多聊一会儿，多问些问题。

And even I remember as I as he was walking out of our interview, and I was, of course, trying to detain him and and talk longer and ask him more questions.

他以一种恳求的语气对我说：‘这些人还在等我呢。’

And he said to me in this kind of plaintive way, these people are waiting for me.

我不能让他们久等。

I can't keep them waiting.

那种礼貌、正直和善意，甚至可以说是对那些专程来看望他的门徒的爱，都让我深深感受到。

And there was a sense of courtesy and decency and kindness, and I would say actually love for the disciples who'd come to see him.

这让我非常惊讶，因为他的名声是以严厉著称的。

That was really surprising to me given his reputation for toughness.

我觉得查理，你知道，我觉得利露写过一篇关于这个的文章。

I think Charlie you know, I think Leeloo wrote an essay about this.

他们会一起吃早餐，利露总是提前十分钟到，而芒格已经在那里了。

They would meet for breakfast, and Leeloo would show up ten minutes before for breakfast, and Munger would already be there.

然后他开始提前十五分钟到，芒格已经在那里了。

Then he started showing up fifteen minutes before Munger would already be there.

接着他开始提前半小时到，而查理已经在那里了。

Then he started showing up half an hour before, and Charlie was already there.

他想知道需要提前多久，最后查理告诉他，我来得早是为了读报纸。

He was wondering how much before our stated time, and then finally Charlie told him, I come early to read my paper.

你不需要提前到。

You don't need to come early.

别管我。

Leave me alone.

然后他们都会早早到达以便工作，之后再一起吃早餐。

And then they would both arrive early to do their work, and then they'd meet for breakfast.

你知道吗？

You know?

我从查理那里学到了这一点，实际上我改变了自己做事的方式：如果我约了谁早上9点喝咖啡，我一定会确保自己8:45就到。

I learned from Charlie that and I actually made a change in the way I operate is to show up or show up early every if I have a coffee with someone at 9AM, I'm gonna make sure I'm there at 08:45.

所以我认为对他来说，迟到是非常不礼貌的。

So I think for him, it's very uncourteous to be late.

我听他一个孙子说，他们全家打算乘私人飞机去奥马哈，飞机原定早上8点起飞，但芒格打算提前到7:15左右就到机场。

And I think one of his grandkids was telling me that they were all going to take a private jet to Omaha, and Munger's I think the jet was supposed to take over 08:00 or something, and Munger's planning to get there at, like, 07:15 or something to the airport.

孙子们试图向他解释，飞机是专机，会等我们的，不会走的。

And the grandkids trying to explain to him the jet's gonna wait for us, that that's not going anywhere.

这不是定期航班。

It's not a scheduled flight.

但这些对查理来说毫无意义。

But that didn't mean anything to Charlie.

他比任何其他家庭成员都到得早。

He was there before any other family member.

你知道吗？

You know?

他就坐在那里，一直在读书。

And he just sat there, and he's just reading.

我来跟你讲一个关于你的故事，实际上，正如你所知，我在2021年7月左右，曾和查理以及几位其他杰出投资者进行过一次非常棒的两小时Zoom早餐会。

I'll tell you a story about this actually that involves you, which is, as I think you know, I had this kind of wonderful two hour Zoom breakfast with Charlie and a few other great investors back in, I think, July 2021.

奇怪的是，他们布置的作业是读我的书，所有人都想讨论这本书，这让我感到自己无比渺小——我居然要教查理如何投资。

And crazily, they'd said the homework was to read my book, and they all wanted to discuss the book, which is I mean, I can't tell you how inadequate I felt as it's like, Yeah, I'm going to teach Charlie something about how to invest.

当时在场的还有路·辛普森这样的人。

And it was Lou Simpson and people like that.

我知道查理会提前到达，因为我读过李录为《穷查理宝典》中文版所写的序言，其中提到查理总是提前到达。

And I knew that Charlie was going to arrive early because I read that introduction that Li Lu had written to, I think the Chinese edition of Poor Charlie's Almanac, where I think he talked about Charlie Waits being early.

所以我提前五分钟登录了会议。

So I signed on five minutes early.

因此，一开始在这通电话里，只有我一个人，而Lou Simpson和其他人，比如Mark Nelson，都还没上线，只有我和Charlie在一起。

And as a result, I'm on this call alone at the start before Lou Simpson and all these other guys, Mark Nelson, get on just with Charlie.

所以，我做的第一件事就是对他说：Monish和我是朋友，他对你评价极高，这你当然知道。

So the very first thing I did actually is I said to him, Monish and I are friends, and he speaks incredibly highly of you, obviously.

我为我的书采访过你，如果你还记得的话。

I interviewed you for my book, if you remember.

他听后就开始大加赞赏你。

And he said to me, he starts waxing lyrical about you.

他特别明确地说：Monish是个非常有道德感的人。

He said, very specifically, he said, Monish is a very highly ethical person.

他还说，他非常善于数学，而且非常聪明。

And he said, He's so mathematical and he's so smart.

他说，他知道通过保持道德可以赚更多的钱。

And he said, He knows he can make more money by being ethical.

他还对我说：像Monish和我这样的人，其实我们为道德所获得的赞誉，远不及如果我们是在违背自身利益的情况下坚持道德时应得的那么多。

And he said to me, People like Monish and me, we actually don't deserve nearly as much credit for our morality as we deserve if we were doing it against our own interests.

他说，我们俩之所以在事业和生活中都做得更好，正是因为我们的道德操守。

He's like, we're both actually doing better in business and life because we're ethical.

我觉得这对我理解生活、商业，以及查理和你，都是一个非常深刻的见解。

And I I thought it was a really interesting insight into life and business and and Charlie and you.

我想知道你能否谈谈‘道德作为一种竞争优势’这一观点，因为我认为，我们在成长过程中，刚进入商界时，或在看《继承之战》或《亿万》之类的剧集时，都被灌输了这样的观念：要想成功，就必须冷酷、自私、唯利是图。

And I wondered if you could talk about that idea of being ethical as a competitive advantage, because I think many of us are taught as we're growing up and starting in the business world or watching Succession or Billions or whatever, we're taught that we need to be hard edged and self serving and selfish to succeed.

但这里有一位商界和投资界的德高望重的长者却说：不，你其实应该保持善良，这并不是一场零和游戏。

And here's this kind of grand old man of business and investing saying, No, you should actually be decent, it's not a zero sum game.

这在我看来是一个极其重要的洞见。

And it strikes me as a hugely important insight.

是的。

Yeah.

查理说得完全正确。

And actually, Charlie is absolutely right.

事实上，我之所以如此有道德，很大一部分原因正是出于自利——开明的自利。

Probably a huge portion of why I'm so ethical is because of self interest, enlightened self interest.

所以我认为人们没有意识到，生活中大多数事情都是基于信任运作的。

So I think what people don't realize is most things in life function on trust.

它们并不是靠合同来运作的。

They don't function based on contracts.

它们是靠信任来运作的。

They function based on trust.

如果你变得非常值得信赖，就会获得巨大的竞争优势，在生活中占据极大优势。

If you become very trustworthy, it gives you a massive competitive advantage, a huge leg up in life.

但这种可信赖性并不是一夜之间就能建立的，它有点像对数尺度。

And the thing is that this trustworthiness doesn't come overnight, but it's it's kind of like on a log scale.

它就像诚实一样。

It's like kind of like truthfulness.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，你有时会说一些小谎，但如果你彻底杜绝所有谎言，就会像我们之前讨论过的那样，那些吸引力场就会发挥作用，人们会感觉到可以信任你。

I mean, you you sometimes use out small lies, but if you eliminate all lies, you know, the powers is forced we've talked about, what happens is that, you know, those attractor fields come into play, and humans feel they can trust you.

一旦人类觉得可以信任你，整个宇宙都会为你所用。

And once humans feel they can trust you, the whole universe is at your disposal.

我们在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司身上看到了这一点。

We see that in spades in Berkshire Hathaway.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司做了很多事，他们只是对某人说一句话，对方就会接受。

Berkshire Hathaway does all kinds of things where they just say something to someone and people will accept that.

他们不需要白纸黑字写下来，或者类似的东西。

They don't need to have it in writing or anything like that.

一句话就足够了。

It just warns word is enough.

那么，你该如何达到这种境界呢？

And so how do you get there?

你要通过一种始终如一的生活方式来实现，不断证明自己在以极高的道德标准玩游戏，着眼于长远，并确保你的商业伙伴、供应商以及所有打交道的人都得到极好的对待。

Well, you get there by having a consistent life where you have demonstrated repeatedly that you are playing the game very ethically, playing the long game, and looking at things to make sure that your business partners and vendors and whoever you deal with is treated extremely well.

雷·克罗克曾经说过，麦当劳的根基有三张凳子。

Ray Kroc used to say that there were three stools on which McDonald's stands.

他说：我的特许经营者、我的供应商和我的员工。

He says, My franchisees, my vendors, and my employees.

特许经营者都是企业家，他认为必须确保他们取得巨大成功。

Franchisees were entrepreneurs, and he felt he had to make sure that they did really well.

麦当劳的薯条、杯子、盘子等所有供货商，雷·克罗克都希望他们能做得非常好。

The people supplying the french fries and the cups and the plates and all of that at McDonald's, Ray Kroc wanted to make sure they did really well.

所以他并不想从他们身上榨取最后一分钱。

So he's not trying to squeeze them for the last penny.

他希望他们能取得成功。

He wants them to do well.

没错，因为他认为这是我的生态系统的一部分。

Right, because he says that it's part of my ecosystem.

我已经将这些教训铭记于心。

And I have taken those those lessons to heart.

所以，比如我与公司的印刷商有合作关系，我希望这些关系能持续数十年。

So, like, if I have a relationship with a printer for my business, I want those relationships to go on for decades.

我希望这家印刷厂能做得好。

I want the printer to do well.

我不希望每次都要压榨他，到处找三家报价，然后选最便宜的那些。

I don't want to be squeezing him every time and get three quotes and take the lowest and all of that.

我不想那样做。

Don't want to do it that way.

我想确保公平，不需要每次都货比三家。

Want to make sure that it's fair and we don't need to go to multiple quotes.

我们只是基于信任来经营业务。

We just run our business on trust.

因此，当你对一家公司或一个人表现出信任时，他们会做出非常积极的回应。

And so what happens is that when you show trust in a company or a human being, they react really positively.

我与任何人打交道时的默认前提是：对方是高质量的人或高质量的公司，我可以完全信任他们。

My baseline when I'm dealing with anyone, my baseline is that the other person is a very high quality person or a very high quality company, and I can completely trust them.

然后我会观察他们是否做出违背这种信任的行为。

Then I wait to see if they do stuff which violates that trust.

如果真的违背了信任，我们就会换人。

If it does violate the trust, we'll move on.

我们会做别的事情。

We'll do something else.

但我认为，如果你一开始就展现出信任，就会发生很多好事。

But I think when you upfront demonstrate the trust, a lot of good things happen.

我认为，秉持道德、properly经营事业，能给你的人生带来巨大的推动力，就像彼得·考夫曼说的那样：如果骗子们知道不作恶能赚多少钱，他们就会停止作恶，因为本质上，诚实能让你赚得多得多。

I think this notion of being ethical, running things properly gives you such a tailwind in life that it's like I think Peter Kaufman says, If crooks knew how much money you could make by not being crooked, they would stop being crooks because basically you make a whole lot more money by being honest.

作恶只能赚到很少的钱，所以选择道德和诚实是显而易见的。

You make a very little bit of money by being crooked, so it's a complete no brainer to be ethical and honest.

这位先生经常对我说，你有一种非凡的能力，能够判断他人——无论是你投资的公司的CEO，还是朋友、商业伙伴、潜在的基金投资者，等等。

Guy has often said to me that you have an extraordinary ability to judge people, and whether it's a CEO of a company you're investing in or a friend or a business partner or a prospective investor in your fund or something.

我记得你以前对我说过，比如，如果你和某人共进午餐，觉得对方对你没好处，你就会直接疏远他。

And I remember you saying to me before that, for example, if you have a lunch with someone and you don't think they're going be good for you, you'll just cut them out.

你会把他从你的生活中剔除，因为你非常认真地对待沃伦在慈善午餐上对你说和对盖伊说的话：多和比你优秀的人交往，你自然会变得更好。

You get out of your life because you're taking very much to heart what Warren said to you and Guy at your charity lunch where he said, hang out with people who are better than you and you can't help but improve.

当我试图评估一个人的诚信、判断他们是高质量的人，还是应该从我生活中剔除的人时，我会关注哪些方面？

And I was wondering when you're trying to appraise someone's integrity, whether they're a high quality person or someone you actually wanna get out of your life, What are you looking for?

有哪些明显的迹象可以看出来？

What are what are some of the tells?

因为我感觉自己在这方面并不擅长。

Because I feel like I'm not very good at this.

我倾向于看到人们最好的一面。

I tend to look for the best in people.

我觉得盖伊看人时，会注意到他们的缺点，而且对这些缺点更加宽容和体谅。

And I think Guy looks at people and sees their flaws and is much gentler and more tolerant of their flaws.

他会看到我们共同的朋友，看到他们行为中令人震惊的地方。

And he'll see mutual friends of yours and mine, and he'll see appalling ways in which they behave.

他会说，是的，他们是个有缺陷的人，但他仍然愿意与他们来往。

He'll say, yeah, they're a flawed individual, and so he's still okay with associating with them.

而你则直接而严厉地说：不，这个人已经从我的生活中消失了。

Whereas you're kind of brutal in saying, no, person's out of my life.

所以我在想，我刚才其实问了你十二个不同的问题。

And so I wonder if you I'm asking you about 12 different questions there.

但如果你能谈谈，第一，你如何判断一个人是否不值得留在你的生活中；第二，为什么你如此极端地筛选掉这样的人？

But if you could talk about, a, what you're looking for to tell of whether someone is not someone is not a person you wanna keep in your life, but b, why you're so extreme in sifting those people out?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这是个很好的问题。

I mean, I think that's a great question.

我父亲过去常说，要过上美好的生活，只需要一个好妻子和一个好朋友。

So my my dad used to say that to have a great life, one needs one good wife and one good friend.

少即是多。

Less is more.

我发现我自己并不需要一大群最好的朋友或亲密朋友。

And I find with myself that I don't need a very large network of best friends or close friends.

我发现，如果我花时间独处、阅读、思考和做自己的事，我会非常快乐。

I find that if I spend time with myself reading and thinking and doing my thing, I'm very happy.

我不需要很多。

I don't need a whole lot.

当我与人互动时，我只希望这些互动在回顾时让我感到愉快，那是美好的，等等。

And when I'm interacting with someone, I just want to make it so that those interactions, when I look back at them, that I enjoyed them, and those were good and whatever.

而且我最近搬到了奥斯汀。

And the thing is that I moved to Austin recently.

对吧？

Right?

我在这里认识的人不多。

I I don't know very many people here.

我决定降低结识他人的门槛。

What I decided to do is I decided to lower the bar on meeting people.

我说，你看。

I said, look.

我在这里谁也不认识。

I don't know anyone here.

当有人在这里主动联系我时，不管怎样，我都会见他们。

When people reach out to me here and there, whatever, I'll meet them.

我会经历一个过程，看看能不能找到——我的意思是，我最好的朋友住在苏黎世，相隔几千英里，这有点奇怪。

I'm going to go through a process to see if I can find I mean, it's kind of weird that one of my best friends is in Zurich, thousands of miles away.

如果隔壁就有一个最好的朋友，那就挺好的，也会容易一点。

It'd be kind of nice to have a best friend next door, for example, a little bit easier.

所以我决定，我要去见这些人，然后像你说的，我见完他们之后再打分。

So I said, I'm going to meet these people and I want to see Like you say, I do my grading after I meet them.

到目前为止，还没人通过我的考核，这也没关系。

And so far no one has made the grade, so that's okay.

他们并不是坏人，但我只是问自己一个非常简单的问题。

They're not bad people, but I just ask myself a very simple question.

我遇到的这个人，我想再见到他吗？

I said, This person I met, do I want to meet them again?

我想和他有更多的互动吗？我在这里究竟想做什么？

Do I want to interact with them some more, and what do I want to do here?

答案自然而然地浮现出来：在某些情况下，我会明确地想要进一步发展。

The answer just comes back naturally is that in some cases it comes back that, yes, I definitely want to increase.

在欧文有个很棒的家伙。

There's a wonderful guy in Irvine.

他和我过去每个星期六都一起去骑车。

He and I used to bike every Saturday together.

其实重点是咖啡，整个事情的核心就是咖啡和法棍面包。

It was really about the coffee, and the whole thing was about the coffee and the baguette.

所以骑车只是借口，真正目的是中间那一个小时的咖啡和法棍。

So the bike ride was all an excuse for the one hour coffee baguette in the middle.

他在奥马哈晚餐时坐在我们的桌旁。

And he was sitting at our table at dinner in Omaha.

他在。

He was.

他在。

He was.

可爱的人。

Lovely guy.

是啊。

Yeah.

关键是，当我离开尔湾时，他非常伤心。

And the thing is he was so heartbroken when I was leaving Irvine.

他极力劝我不要离开，因为我们之间有如此深厚的情谊，而我在奥斯汀从未找到过这种感觉。

He tried so hard to convince me not to leave because we had such a and I have not found that in Austin.

我真心喜欢和他一起度过的星期六早晨。

I genuinely loved the Saturday mornings with him.

我们完成了不少实际的工作。

We got physical work done.

我们喝了很棒的咖啡，一切都很好。

We had great coffee, and everything was great.

我在奥斯汀至今没能重现那种感觉，我很怀念它。

I have not been able to replicate that yet in Austin, and I miss that.

现在我们的互动都是通过Zoom等方式进行的。

Now our interactions are over Zoom and so on.

这不一样。

It's not the same.

我希望他能在我所在的地方，他也希望我能在他所在的地方。

I wish he was in my geography, and he wishes I was in his geography.

我认为友谊非常重要。

I think that friendships are very important.

我通过查理看到，我认识了查理的一些最好的朋友，其中很多人后来也成了我的朋友。

I've seen with Charlie, I met some of Charlie's very best friends, and many of them have become my friends.

和查理的朋友交朋友很容易，因为他们都是素质很高的人。

It's very easy to make friends with Charlie's friends because they're really high quality people.

你遇到这些人时，我会说，天啊，我只想和查理的朋友交朋友，因为他已经帮我们筛选好了。

You meet some of these people, I say, Wow, all I want to do is be friends with Charlie's friends because he's done all the filtering already.

他们素质真的很高。

Are so high quality.

他们都是很棒的人。

They're just wonderful people.

我真的很钦佩他们。

I'm just so impressed with them.

我认为，一旦你见到某人，就能很容易地判断出你是否想再次见到他。

I think that it is really easy to tell once you meet someone, whether it's someone you really are excited about meeting again or not.

我认为，如果我的情况很简单，我离开地球前还剩下二十二年零四周。

I think that if my situation is very simple, I have twenty two years and four weeks left before I leave planet Earth.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以剩下的时间不多了。

So there isn't much time left.

这让我

That gets

你就能活到80岁，对吧？

you to 80, does it?