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您正在收听TIP。
You're listening to TIP.
大家好。
Hi, everyone.
我很高兴向大家介绍今天的嘉宾盖伊·斯皮尔，他是我最亲密的朋友之一。
I'm delighted to introduce today's guest, Guy Spear, who's one of my closest friends.
盖伊是一位著名的对冲基金经理，已经管理Aqua Marine基金近二十五年。
Guy is a renowned hedge fund manager who's been running the Aqua Marine Fund for almost twenty five years.
在此期间，他的业绩比市场高出将近250个百分点。
During that time, he's beaten the market by a little under two fifty percentage points.
盖伊和我最初是在牛津大学求学时相识的，那还是我们年轻的时候，但真正成为朋友是在1990年代我们都在纽约生活的时候。
Guy and I first met when we were students at Oxford way back in our youth, but we really became friends when we were both living in New York back in the 1990s.
二十多年前，我投资了他的基金，当时并不知道自己其实是他的首批投资者之一。
I ended up investing in his fund more than twenty years ago, not realizing that I was actually one of his first investors.
如今我是他公司的顾问，这么多年后我仍然持有这只基金。
I'm now an adviser to his firm, and I still own the fund all these years later.
我经常告诉他，我把这看作一项四十年的投资。
I've often told him that I regard it as a forty year investment.
但真正加深我们关系的是，我帮助盖伊撰写了《价值投资者的教育》这本书。
But what really deepened our relationship is the fact that I helped Guy to write his book, The Education of a Value Investor.
在那段时间里，我基本上和他住在一起好几个月。
I basically lived with him for several months during that period.
所以，正如你所想象的，这一集其实是两位老友之间非常坦诚的对话。
So as you can imagine, this episode is really a candid conversation between two very old friends.
正如你将听到的，我们深入探讨了每个投资者都必须面对的一个问题：一切都在变化，你永远无法真正预测未来。
As you'll hear, we talk in-depth about a problem that all of us have to confront as investors, which is that everything changes, and you can never truly predict what the future holds.
过去几年里，这一点表现得尤为明显。
We've seen this very dramatically in the last couple of years.
在此之前，一切看起来都阳光明媚，投资者们正乘着一场大规模牛市的浪潮。
Before that, everything looked sunny and great, and investors were riding the tide of a massive bull market.
然后新冠疫情爆发，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，通货膨胀失控。
Then COVID broke out, Russia invaded Ukraine, Inflation went nuts.
而现在，那些牛市投资者曾经钟爱的热门股票和加密货币都已大幅回落，重回地面。
And now all those hot stocks and cryptocurrencies that bullish investors used to love have come crashing back down to earth.
这很好地提醒我们，市场中的一切，乃至生活中的万事万物，都没有真正稳定或永恒的东西。
It's a great reminder that nothing is truly stable or permanent in markets or for that matter in life.
那么，如果世界如此不可预测，作为投资者的你该怎么做呢？
So what are you supposed to do as an investor if the world is so unpredictable?
正如盖伊在这次对话中所解释的，他的答案是投资于少数几家几乎在任何情况下都能繁荣发展的非凡企业。
As Guy explains in this conversation, his answer is to invest in a small number of extraordinary businesses that are likely to prosper under almost any conditions.
换句话说，他的目标是找到那些占据他所说的‘经济制高点’的公司。
To put it another way, his goal is to find companies that occupy what he calls the economic high ground.
如果你和我一样，希望在数十年间以稳健的方式积累持久的财富，我认为这是一个极其宝贵的理念。
If you're like me and you wanna build enduring wealth in a resilient way over many decades, I think this is an incredibly valuable idea.
盖伊在这里分享了如此丰富的洞见，以至于我们聊了很久。
Guy shares so many rich insights here that we ended up talking for a long time.
我不想缩短这次对话，所以我把我们的谈话分成了两期。
I didn't wanna cut this short, so I've divided our conversation into two episodes.
你即将听到的是第一部分。
What you're about to hear is part one.
如果你喜欢，我真心希望你也能收听第二部分。
If you enjoy it, I really hope you'll also check out part two.
非常感谢你的收听。
Thanks so much for listening.
你正在收听《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》播客，主持人威廉·格林将采访世界顶尖投资者，探讨如何在市场和生活中取得成功。
You're listening to the richer, wiser, happier podcast, where your host, William Green, interviews the world's greatest investors and explores how to win in markets and life.
大家好。
Hi, folks.
我很高兴能与我的老朋友盖伊·斯皮尔对话，他今天从法国南部加入了我们。
I'm really happy to be here with my old friend Guy Spear, who's joining us from the South Of France of all places.
盖伊，见到你真好。
Guy, it's lovely to see you.
感谢你今天与我们交谈。
Thanks for speaking with us today.
见到你我也很高兴，威廉。
And it's lovely to see you too, William.
所以，实际上，我想请你讲一个关于你家族历史的故事。
So, actually, I wanted to start by asking you to tell a story really of your family history.
因为在我看来，认识你二十五年左右，要真正理解你是谁、你的投资生涯，以及你过去二十五年经营Aqua Marine所做的一切，就必须了解一点你的家族历史，因为它深刻塑造了你的人生。
Because I think having known you for twenty five years or so, the only way really to understand who you are and your career as an investor and what it is you've been up to for the last twenty five years of running Aqua Marine is to understand a little bit about your family history because it's really shaped your life.
所以，我不知道你是否能先从你的曾祖父母说起？
And so I wonder if if you could actually start by telling us about your great grandparents.
这要从你父亲这边说起，他们是谁，来自哪里，以及他们在20世纪30年代经历了什么。
This would be on your father's side, who they were, where they were from, and what happened to them back in the nineteen thirties.
至于我母亲这边的曾祖父母，他们是经济移民，从英国、爱尔兰以及曼彻斯特等地迁往南非，最终定居在纳塔尔，我的祖父在那里为英国一方参加了第一次世界大战，这非常有趣，因为现在我们可以转到你想要了解的曾祖父母了。
And, just to get on the other side, my great grandparents on my mother's side were economic migrants from The United Kingdom, Ireland, and places like Manchester to South Africa, where they ended up in Natal and where my grandfather ended up fighting in World War I on the British side, which is just fascinating because now we can move to my I guess you wanted to go to great grandparents.
所以，我祖父这边的曾祖父母在德国被称为‘兰德约登’。
So great grandparents on my grandfather's side in Germany were what were called Landsjorden.
他们生活在法兰克福周边地区，靠近莱茵河，地处法国边境。
They lived in the area around Frankfurt, which was close to the Rhine and was on the borders with France.
这一地区比德国其他大部分地区更早实现了犹太人的解放。
It was an area that benefited from the emancipation of Jews earlier than most other parts of Germany.
作为兰茨约登人，我们并不确切知道他们做什么，但到了我祖父的父母一代，他们经营了几家鞋店。
As Lanzjorden, we don't know exactly what they did, but when we get into my grandfather's parents, they ran a couple of shoe shops.
最初他们在法兰克福开了几家鞋店，后来一度发展成向全德国的鞋店提供批发供货的生意。
It started off with a couple of shoe shops in Frankfurt, and then at one point they had a business doing wholesale supply to shoe shops around Germany.
我祖父就出生在这个家庭中，但他更偏向知识分子类型，最终在多所大学获得了四个学位，并自认为是一名律师和历史学家。
And my grandfather was born into that, but was more of an intellectual type and ended up having done four degrees at various universities and considered himself a lawyer and an historian.
他还曾担任过几位知名人士的顾问。
And also was an adviser to a number of well known figures, actually.
他在一本关于著名电影理论家西格弗里德·克拉考尔的书中出现过。
There's he appears in a book talking about a famous movie theorist called Siegfried Krakow.
另一方面，我祖母的祖先是一群生活在勃兰登堡地区的犹太人，那里当时属于普鲁士。
On the other side, my great grandmother's ancestors were Jews who lived in the area of Brandenburg, and that was under Prussia.
至于具体细节我并不完全清楚，但他们最终定居在柏林以南20公里的卢肯瓦尔德镇，在那里经营着最大的帽子制造企业，并拥有一座非常独特的工厂——因为制造帽子需要使用含硫或其他化学物质，会释放出令人不快的烟雾。
And in a way that I don't know the full story, but they ended up in a town 20 kilometers south of Berlin called Lukenwalde, where they ran the largest hat manufacturing business and had famously a factory, a hat factory, with some very unique architecture because in order to manufacture the hats, you had to have these very sulfurous or chemicals that gave off fumes, which were not pleasant to inhale.
你有这些巨大的通风井。
You had these huge ventilation shafts.
他们还投资了柏林的房地产。
And they owned also, they were investors in real estate in Berlin.
当然，这一切在20世纪30年代中期戛然而止，因为他们突然不能再从事自己的生意或职业。
All of that, of course, came to an end in the mid nineteen thirties when suddenly they could no longer practice their business or their professions.
因此，在20世纪30年代中期，我们的家族大量迁出德国，前往以色列、美国，以及少量前往英国。
And so in the in the mid nineteen thirties, there was a lot of movement of our family out of Germany and to Israel, The United States, and a little bit to The United Kingdom.
我会暂停一下，看看你想从哪个方向继续这个故事。
And I'll pause just to see where you want to go with the story.
资产被没收了吗？比如柏林郊外的帽子工厂、鞋业生意或房产？
Were the assets seized, like things like the hat factory outside Berlin or the shoe business or the property?
这些东西后来怎么样了？
What happened to all of that stuff?
有一些故事我本该比现在更了解，那就是他们陆续受到当地纳粹党的造访，对方不断提出越来越苛刻的问题，让他们意识到自己的未来已无法维持。
There are stories that I really ought to know better than I do in which they received visits from the local Nazi party asking increasingly difficult questions and with the realization that their future was untenable.
因此，这些资产要么被遗弃，要么被没收，或者更准确地说，是在胁迫下被迫出售。
And so they were either abandoned or seized, or sorry, abandoned or sold under duress.
我认为，在每一种情况下，这些企业都有非犹太人的合伙人。
I think in every case, the businesses, for example, had non Jewish partners.
房地产方面也总有非犹太人围绕在身边。
The real estate would have had people around who were not Jewish.
因此，家人自然会去找他们，试图争取最好的交易条件。
So, of course, the family would have approached them and sought to do the best deal that they could.
当然，在另一方看来，他们也会根据当时的环境做出经济上的安排。
And, of course, on the other side, they would have done an economic deal given circumstances.
他们很清楚，与他们交易的人是在被迫离开的胁迫之下。
So they knew that the people trying to do a deal with them were under duress to leave.
因此，他们并没有为这些财产获得应有的补偿。
And so they were not given proper compensation for any of those properties.
在我祖父的情况下，他刚刚在法兰克福设立了律师事务所。
In my grandfather's case, he he had just set up a legal practice in Frankfurt.
有一封信，你看看会很有意思，信中他的一位德国律师协会的朋友告诉他，不幸的是，由于纳粹党的决定，非雅利安血统的德国律师将不再被允许执业。
And there's a letter that you'd have fun taking a look at where a friend of his from the German Lawyers Association writes to him to tell him that, unfortunately, because of decisions taken by the National Socialist Party, lawyers, German lawyers of non Aryan descent will no longer be able to practice law.
但他很高兴地告诉我祖父，作为朋友，他设法为我祖父争取到了继续执业的权限，延长到年底，以便他能有更多时间处理完事务。
But he was happy to inform my grandfather that as a friend, he'd managed to secure the ability for my grandfather to continue to practice beyond the date at which he was supposed stopped to the end of the year so that he could wind up his affairs with a little bit more time.
所以，如果我没记错的话，这是你的祖父。
So if I remember rightly, this is your grandfather.
我想是塞尔玛·斯皮尔曾经——
I think it was Selma Spear who had-
塞尔玛，没错。
Selma, that's right.
他刚刚娶了这位名叫玛琳娜的女子，她是他的真爱。
He had just married this woman, Marlene, who is his true love.
大约在1934年，他结了婚。
Something like 1934, he gets married.
他在法兰克福成为了一名律师。
He becomes a lawyer in Frankfurt.
然后他在大约1937年失去了执业资格，我想。
Then he loses his right to practice law in about 1937, I think.
然后他逃到了以色列，当时那还是巴勒斯坦。
And then he he flees to Israel, which still was Palestine at that point.
带着什么？
With what?
他最终成了做什么的？
And what what does he end up becoming?
嗯，他们所有人都想离开。
Well, all of them were looking to leave.
有一本叫约尔格·斯佩托的人写的书，里面详细记录了这个故事的一部分，我最近才看到。
And there's a fascinating write up of part of the story in this book by a guy called Jorg Spetho that I only got to recently.
如果你是汉娜·阿伦特，那么你很容易就能前往美国，因为你是一位备受赞誉和认可的作家。
So if you were Hannah Arendt, then then you would have found your way to The United States pretty easily because you were kind of like celebrated and recognized writer.
如果你是瓦尔特·本雅明，他当时已经享有盛誉，你也同样会设法前往美国。
If you're Walter Benjamin, who was already celebrated and recognized, you would have also find found your way to The United States.
例如，在美国，大学争相争取这类人才。
Universities were falling over themselves to get these kinds of people, for example, in The US.
因此，那些有能力的人——值得一提的是，这并不仅仅是犹太人。
And, so those who could and and it's worth saying that it was not just Jewish people.
我的意思是，还有很多同性恋者。
I mean, there were many gays.
你能想象在文化行业里吗？
Can you imagine in cultural industries?
瓦尔特·本雅明的故事很悲惨，他当时得到了一所大学的职位，也拿到了去美国的船票，他乘火车穿越法国，打算在西班牙某地登船。
So Walter Benjamin is tragic story where he had an offer of, I believe, a place at a university, and he had passage to The US, and he had traveled by train through France and was, going to get on a boat, I think somewhere around Spain.
但随后他必须经过一个由德国人把守的边境检查站。
But then there was some kind of border post that he had to pass through manned by Germans.
他极度恐惧会被抓进集中营，于是在前往美国的途中自杀身亡。
And he was so frightened that, they would pick him up and put him into some kind of camp that he committed suicide en route to The United States.
但如果你有
But if you had
是的。
Yeah.
我想我最近刚读到过这个。
Think I just read about this.
在过去的几周里，《纽约书评》上有一篇文章谈到了这件事，因为出版了一本他朋友的新书信集。
There was an article in the New York Review of Books about this in the last couple of weeks, because there's a new book of letters from a friend of his.
文章基本上说，他试图越过边境进入西班牙。
And it said, basically, he tried to get across the border to Spain.
他们把他和整个群体都遣返了，他当晚就自杀了。
They turned him back, the whole group, and he commits suicide that night, basically.
而那个群体第二天就顺利通过了。
And the group got through the next day.
这简直太荒谬了，是啊。
I mean, it's so crazily, Yeah.
然后你还有像文学理论家西奥多拉·多尔诺这样的人物，他有犹太血统，但出于各种原因改信了基督教，因为这使他能够进入当时对犹太人越来越难进入的德国主流社会。
And then you have characters like this literary theorist, Theodora Dorno, who had Jewish roots, but who'd become Christian for all sorts of reasons, because it enabled him to enter the kind of mainstream of German society, which at the time was becoming more and more difficult for Jews.
所以当时人们试图去任何地方。
So there was attempts to go anywhere.
我祖父实际上想逃到法国。
My grandfather actually wanted to go to France.
他认为法国会是个很好的去处。
He thought that that would be a great place to go.
如果他去了法国，可能就活不过战争了。
If he had gone to France, he might not have survived the war.
比如，在我祖母这边，她五个孩子中有一个。
And we had, for example, on my grandmother's side, there had been one of the five children.
我祖母的哥哥曾在英格兰中部某地学习制帽，我不太清楚具体在哪个地方。
So the brother of my grandmother had been studying hat making somewhere in the middle of England, I don't know, in in the Midlands.
所以他有能力留下来。
And so he had the ability to stay.
但他有能力留下来。
But he had the ability to stay.
兄弟姐妹们无法离开。
The siblings could not go.
美国是她其中一位兄弟姐妹去的地方。
United States was was the the for two of no, one of her siblings.
但后来，你知道，我祖父想去巴黎或法国。
But then, you know, my grandfather wanted to go to Paris or to France.
而我祖母可以说可能受到感染，或者充满热情且具有锡安主义倾向，她想前往以色列。
And my grandmother who had been, you could say, perhaps infected or who was enthusiastic and Zionistic wanted to go to Israel.
我不知道这些讨论的具体细节，但她一定说服了我祖父去以色列。
And I don't know the details of how they how those discussions went on, but she must have convinced my grandfather to go to Israel.
据说，我祖父带着一千英镑，或者相当于一千英镑的金额离开，这笔钱是他用来在特拉维夫北部一个名为的德裔犹太定居点建造房屋所需的。
He was able to you know, the the story that's told in the family is that he was able to leave with a thousand pounds or the equivalent of a thousand British pounds, and that was what he needed or what he used to build a house in a German Jewish settlement in the North Of Tel Aviv called
拉莫特·沙维姆，我父亲就出生在那里。
Ramot Shavim, which is where my father was born.
威廉，我记得你祖父基本上成了一名不成功的养鸡农。
William My recollection is that your grandfather basically became an unsuccessful chicken farmer.
从某种意义上说，这是一个关于这种特权生活被摧毁的故事。
So in a sense, this is a story about the destruction of this life of privilege.
这是一个男人，他从小以为自己会成为一名律师，身边都是拥有地产、鞋业和帽业生意的家人。
Here's a guy who grows up thinking he's going to be a lawyer surrounded by family that has property, shoe businesses, hat businesses.
但他却搬到了一个极其干旱的地方，那里甚至还算不上一个国家，什么都没有，家里常常流传着吃不饱饭的故事。
And instead he moves to a country that's incredibly arid, that isn't really even a country yet where there's nothing and grows up with stories in the family of them not having enough food at times.
因此，我觉得这很相关，因为我觉得你的一生实际上是在努力恢复家族的财富。
So this strikes me as relevant because I think so much of your life has actually been about the restoration of the family fortune.
这是否准确地概括了你对自己人生叙事的理解？
Is that a fair of what you've been up to in your own kind of narrative of yourself and of your life?
在以色列，有很多沙丘。
Well, in Israel, were a lot of sand dunes.
你需要知道这一点。
You need to know that.
很多沙子被风吹过来，我小时候去那里时，沙子覆盖了道路，到处都是沙子，土地一点也不肥沃。
A lot of sand that blows over and I just like as a child going there and covered the roads and it's just like everywhere sand and not very productive.
嗯，沙子本身是没有生产力的。
Well, no sand is productive.
你知道吗，这个故事只是在我最近开始理解它的时候，才在我心中萌芽并成长起来的。
You know, that that is a story that has germinated and grown in my mind only in recent years as I started to understand it.
因为在以色列——我生命的前四年在那里度过——以及我认为在美国也差不多，人们总是把整个历史扔进垃圾堆，因为一个全新的开始已经出现。
Because the dialogue or the narrative that you have in Israel, which is where I spent the first four years of my life, and I think it's a bit similar in The United States, is that you kind of you you put all of history into the junk heap because a new start has arisen.
那为什么还要去追溯历史呢？
And why do you need to go into the history?
每个人都有自己的故事。
Everybody's got their story.
但现在我们身在以色列。
But now we're in Israel.
现在我们身在美国，生活重新开始，而世界其他地方都是糟糕的。
Now we're in The United States, and life starts afresh, and the rest of the world is bad.
我们正在翻开新的一页，开启新的篇章。
Here we are turning a new leaf and starting a new page.
我认为我成长的环境并不太重视历史，或者说，历史并没有以某种特定的方式被传递给我。
I think that I grew up in an environment where the history was not of great concern, if you like, and not brought up in a certain way.
我认为，在任何灾难之后的第一代人迁往新地方时，这种情况可能普遍存在。
I think that that's probably true of many the first generation after any calamity as they move to a new place.
人们并不真的想深入探讨这段历史。
People don't really want to go into it.
当他们确实去探讨时，也只是以一种疏离的、学术性的角度去看待。
When they do go into it, it's gone into from a kind of a distance, sort of an academic distance.
你并不会带着个人的历史和亲身故事去深入它，这么说吧。
You don't go into it with a kind of a personal history and personal stories, if you like.
我认为，在美国，史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格和许多其他人开始意识到，我们需要这些个人故事。
I think, you know, in The United States, Steven Spielberg and many others started realizing that we needed those personal stories.
这段历史不能是冷漠的、非个人的，于是这些个人故事开始被讲述出来。
This could not be an impersonal history, and those personal stories started getting told.
但直到最近几年，我才开始意识到，这个故事是我所做许多决定背后的关键背景音，而我之前并不完全理解自己为何做出这些决定——也许表面上有各种理由，但深层来看，我意识到，这个故事与我许多决定产生了共鸣。
But so it's only in the last few years that I started realizing that this story was a key sort of key background music in the decisions that I had taken that I didn't fully understand why I had taken them or couldn't I mean, maybe there was there was surface reasons, but kind of deep down, I realized that that that this story resonates with many of the decisions that I've taken.
你觉得是因为做了很多心理治疗吗？我知道你非常推崇心理治疗，这帮助你明白了：原来这就是当时发生的事。
Do you think it was doing lots of therapy that because I know you're a huge advocate of therapy that helped you kinda understand, oh, this is what was going on.
这就是我为什么想成为一名理财经理的原因。
This is why I wanted to become a money manager.
这就是我为什么想以一种代际的方式进行投资的原因。
This is why I wanted to to invest in a in a very generational way.
对吧？
Right?
你投资不仅仅是为了在一轮周期中取得成功。
You're not just investing to succeed over a cycle.
从某种意义上说，你的投资方式是代际性的。
There's a sense in which the way that you invest is generational.
你试图思考未来二三十年、四十年、五十年，如何为你的家庭建立一个新的基础。
You're trying to you think about the next twenty, thirty, forty years, fifty years, how how to how to create a new foundation for your family.
我非常推崇心理治疗，昨晚吃饭时，我讲了一些故事，希望能在合适的时机说服我的孩子们去接受心理治疗。
I'm a huge fan of therapy and I was at dinner last night telling stories the hope of convincing my children to engage in therapy at the right point.
但我其实不觉得那就是我。
But I actually don't think that is me.
如果我继续下去，也许会达到那个状态。
Might have gotten to it if I'd continued.
我接受了大约十年的荣格派心理治疗，后来某段时间我想休息一下。
I mean, was in Jungian therapy for like ten years and at some point I wanted a break.
我再也没有真正回去继续了。
I never really got back into it.
我觉得，是的，这其实是我在审视世界，试图理解自己为什么做过某些事情的原因。
I think that it, yeah, I mean, it's me kind of examining the world and trying to understand reasons why I've done certain things.
但同时，我觉得当你达到那个阶段时，是我的父亲，就在两三年前，他告诉我，他想到了他的祖父母、我的曾祖父母在德国的生活，他说，我觉得我们现在处于同样的境地。
But also, think that when you come to that, it was my father who, two or three years ago, he said to me, you know, I think of he he thought of his grandparents, my great grandparents living in Germany, and he said, I feel like we're in the same place.
他说，我不知道。
And he said, I don't know.
接下来会发生什么？
What what's gonna happen?
当他们过着那样的生活时，他们看不到任何需要为灾难做准备的迹象。
How's this they they when they were living that life, there was nothing that they could see that required them to make plans for a calamity.
他们没有想过要为灾难做准备，或者不知道该如何准备，你知道吗？他跟我说，我很好奇灾难会从哪里袭来。
And they didn't think to plan for a calamity or they didn't know how to how, you know, He said to me, I I wonder where it's gonna come at us from.
你知道吗？
You know?
所以，从某种意义上说，这是我父亲提出的一个切中要害的问题，我认为。
So in a certain sense, it was a it was a pertinent question asked by my father, I think.
对我来说，你似乎一直有一种根深蒂固的恐惧，担心一切都会崩塌。
It feels to me like you've always had this deep seated fear that everything could go to hell.
这让我很有共鸣，我想，因为我也有同样的深层恐惧，因为我来自类似的背景，尽管我们没有你们那么富裕。
And it resonates for me, I think, because I think I have the same deep seated fear having having come from the the same sort of background, albeit we were less posh than you guys.
我们家来自波兰、乌克兰和俄罗斯的犹太小镇，而你们家是大商人。
We we were in Polish and Ukrainian and Russian shtetls while you guys were big businessmen.
是的。
Yeah.
因为解放首先发生在德国，我的意思是，这一代德国犹太人或许是历史上最非凡的一代人，如果我可以这么大胆地说的话。
And because the emancipation came to Germany first, I mean, that group of German Jews is the most incredible generation of people perhaps ever, if I may be so bold to say so.
在仅仅大约五十万人中，却集中了如此非凡的才华，而且你知道，绝大多数德国犹太人之所以在战争中幸存下来，是因为他们足够富有、足够有能力理解正在发生的事情，而东部地区的人们则真的、真的遭受了巨大苦难。
There there was just such an extraordinary concentration of talent in in only about half a million people, and it's very you know, the the vast majority of German Jews did survive the war because they were rich enough and capable enough to understand what was happening, whereas people further east really, really suffered.
所以，威廉，我对此真的非常非常抱歉。
So I'm really, really sorry about that, William.
但我没有回答你的问题，现在我已经想不起来了。
But, I didn't answer your question, and it's gone out of my head.
所以
So
从某种意义上说，这仍然是关于一种感觉，即一切都有可能被一扫而空。
Well, in a sense, it's about it's about still having this sense that everything can be swept away.
即使你生活在像二十世纪三十年代初德国那样的繁荣时期，比如你的家庭，或者像我们最近几年在新冠疫情和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、通货膨胀之前所处的时期，人们普遍会陷入一种自满情绪。
Even when you're living in a prosperous period like Germany in the early thirties, like your family, or in a period like we've been in the last few years before COVID and before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and inflation, there's, like, this sense of complacency that most people fall into.
而我认为，总体而言，你并没有那么自满。
And I don't I I think on the whole, you've not been that complacent.
你总是会有一点那种不安全感，会小心对待自己的钱、投资方式，不会太过放纵。
You always have a little bit of that sense of precariousness of wanting to be careful about your money, about the way you invest, about not getting too carried away.
我的意思是，我觉得你所说的，如果十年前有人这么描述，我根本不会理解，因为这就像对鱼描述水一样。
I mean, I think that what I hear you saying is, first of all, you know, you're describing something that if you would have described it ten years ago, I wouldn't have really understood it because it would be like describing water to a fish.
鱼根本意识不到水的存在。
Fish is just not aware of it.
我觉得今天当你提到这一点时，帮助我理解了，尽管我以前并不认为自己有这种感觉，但实际上有一种潜藏的焦虑，它是我做决定时的背景音，而周围的人却没有这种感受。
I think that today, when you bring that up, it helps me to understand, even though I didn't believe I had it, kind of an underlying angst that I that was the background music to decisions that I made that people around me did not make.
对我来说有趣的是，我父亲经济上的情况——我们最终来到了英国。
What's interesting for me is that I was economically my father we ended up in The UK.
我父亲创办了一家公司。
My father started a business.
我们在经济上很宽裕。
We were well off financially.
我有一些朋友，他们的经济状况肯定不如我，但他们对自身在世界中的位置没有任何不安全感，因此他们很快乐，也愿意追求艺术之类没有经济保障保障的事业。
I had friends who were certainly not as well off as I was but who didn't have any sense of insecurity about their place in the world and therefore were quite happy and interested to pursue, pursuits like arts or, to pursue things that didn't didn't have any necessary economic security attached to them.
我记得看着他们，心想：我永远做不到那样。
And I remember looking at them and saying, I could never do that.
我记得对自己说：我可以成为一个，你知道的，我热爱语言。
And I remember thinking to myself, I I could be a you know, I I loved languages.
我学语言非常快，但对我来说，去从事这方面根本就不是一个问题。
I was very quick at picking up languages, but it was never even a question for me to go and do that.
对我来说，成为科学家或从事任何学术工作也根本不是一个问题，因为我知道那不是一条通往安全的道路。
It was actually never even a question for me to be a scientist or to engage in anything academic because I knew that that wasn't Well, I now see in retrospect that that wasn't a path to security.
我认为通往安全的道路就是经济上的富裕。
I saw the path to security as being financial well-being.
我当时并不理解这一点，但现在我想我能更好地理解了。
I didn't understand that, and I think that now I can understand it a lot better, if you like.
我认为，威廉，有趣的是，这些模式非常强大，深深根植于人们的思维中，以至于很多人一生都未能很好地理解它们。
I think that what's also interesting, William, is that these patterns are very powerful and very deeply embedded in ways that I think people can live their whole lives and not understand them particularly well.
是的，我认为当你明白动机的来源时，生活会更好，因为这样你就可以审视它，然后说：好吧，是的。
Yeah, and I think that life is better when you understand where the motivation is coming from because then you can examine it and say, well, is this either either say, yes.
这对我自身的幸福与安全至关重要，那么我该如何有意识地去做，而不是让决策被某种潜意识的恐惧所驱动？
This is really necessary for my well-being and security, and therefore, how do I do it consciously and not allow the decisions to be driven by some kind of subconscious fear?
你可以有意识地应对它，也可以认为这是一种非理性的恐惧，因此选择远离或绕开它。
You can engage it consciously or you can say, well, that is an irrational fear, so I'm gonna just step away from that or sidestep it.
我认为，作为投资者，但投资只是生活中任何追求的一个缩影，以与你内心深处自我相一致的方式去做，也非常重要。
I think it's also really important as an investor, but investing is just a microcosm of life in any pursuit, to do it in a way that's aligned with who you are in this deep sense.
所以，例如，如果你采取大胆疯狂的风险，这与你的个性并不相符，因为你有一种不安全感，以及希望通过积累财富来作为应对不确定性的缓冲。
So I think, for example, if you took wild and crazy risks, it just wouldn't suit your personality given your sense of precariousness and your sense of wanting to build up wealth as a kind of cushion against uncertainty.
我可以告诉你，我一直在思考我们斯皮尔家族在基金内以及基金外拥有的房地产资产，这些资产在国家和地区之间实现了多元化配置。
I can tell you that I think about the ways in which our Spear family assets within the fund or the real estate that we owned outside the fund, there's a diversification across countries and across regions.
我不知道当灾难来临、末日到来时会发生什么，但显然，如果一颗足够大的小行星撞击地球，无论撞击哪里、你的资产在哪里都无济于事；但也许如果只有某个地区受到影响，其他地区仍会安然无恙。
I don't know what happens when the calamity, when the end of days comes, but obviously, if a big enough asteroid hits the earth, it doesn't matter where it hits and where your assets are, But maybe if there's only one region that's affected, then other regions will be okay.
是的。
Yeah.
我想问你这个问题，因为正如一些听众所知，多年来我一直在帮你编辑年度报告，部分原因只是为了每年能有几天时间，和你聊聊生活与宇宙。
I wanted to ask you about this because as as some of our listeners will know, I I've helped you edit your annual report for many years, partly as an excuse just to chat about life in the universe once a year for a few days.
这一次，我鼓励你们更新自己的投资原则，并添加一些新的原则。
And this time around, I encourage you to update your investing principles and to add some new ones.
所以我们现在已经有24条投资原则了。
And so we're up to 24 investing principles now.
其中一条新原则，你们潜意识里偷用了我的标题，但我其实也是从别人那里借来的，那就是：一切都在变化。
And one of the new ones, which you subconsciously stole the title from me, but I had stolen it from someone else, was that everything changes.
我本来想
And I wanted
但容我插一句，这真是个特别搞笑的故事。
to If may just interject, it's just a hilarious story.
我在写这封信的时候，整个过程就是一段故事。
So I'm working on the letter that's a whole story.
我非常感激威廉，因为他从不修改。
I'm extraordinarily grateful for William because he doesn't edit.
对于那些不从事写作行业的人来说，修改其实意味着什么都没有。
For those of you who are not in the writing business, editing really means nothing.
从文字润色、事实核查到帮助他人拓展思路，方方面面都包括在内。
Everything from copy editing and checking for facts to helping somebody elaborate their thoughts.
在威廉的情况下，他极大地帮助我拓展思路，挖掘出我自身都没意识到的见解，直到威廉与我互动时才浮现出来，这个过程非常有趣且非凡。
In William's case, there's an enormous amount of helping me to elaborate my thoughts and pulling things out of me that I didn't realize were in me until William engages with them, which is kind of a really fun and interesting process, and it's extraordinary.
我想尽可能多次地公开感谢你，威廉。
I wanna publicly thank you as many times as I can for that, William.
不过你得去接受一次直肠检查。
Although you have to get to a proctology exam.
谢谢。
Thank you.
就只是个直肠检查。
Just a proctology exam.
我差不多也是在同一时间去的。
I'm there at around the same time.
我第一次在迪拜参加ValueX中东活动时，听了一位名叫霍萨姆·沙博克希的人做的精彩演讲。
What had happened to me is that I'd been at ValueX Middle East first time in Dubai, and I'd listened to a wonderful presentation by somebody called Hosam Shabokshi.
霍萨姆是我希望你能采访的人，威廉。
Hosam is somebody that I hope that you get to interview William.
他亲身经历了中东的巨大变革，真是一个了不起的人物。
He's lived through extraordinary changes in The Middle East, really really an amazing personality.
那场演讲中，我疯狂地做笔记，那些笔记我还留着。
It was a presentation in which I scribbled notes furiously, I had those notes.
现在我已把它们整理成一段简短的文字，正在想这段文字的标题是什么？
Now I've kind of written them up into a short paragraph, and I'm thinking, what's the title of this paragraph?
标题是什么？
What's the title?
我想，是的，一切都在变化。
Was like, yes, everything changes.
这个标题再合适不过了。
That's the right title.
虽然不完全如此，但大致上，我会告诉威廉：我为这个原则找到了一个绝佳的标题。
This is not quite how it happens, but more or less, I tell William, I've got this great title for this principle.
它叫做《一切都在变化》。
It's called Everything Changes.
他说：‘是啊，你这个傻瓜。’
He says, yeah, you idiot.
这是我书中某一章的标题。
This is the title for one of the chapters in my book.
嗯。
Yeah.
我觉得我们总是不自觉地或有意识地互相借鉴。
I think I think we're we're constantly subconsciously or consciously stealing things from each other.
你会很高兴知道，我从一位著名的禅师那里偷来了这句话，我认为他就是《禅心，初学者的心》的作者。
And and you'll be happy to know, I I stole it from a famous Zen teacher, who I think was the the person who wrote Zen Mind, Beginner's Mind.
而且，这原本是一个日语短语。
And and and but the but so it's a it's originally a Japanese phrase.
我觉得是‘无常’（shogiyomujo）。
It's shogiyomujo, I think.
这段话被写下来，它对霍华德·马克斯的人生产生了巨大影响，因为这个观点认为：如果一切都在变化，没有什么是恒定不变的，未来是不可预知的，那么你最好顺应现实，而不是自欺欺人地认为自己知道未来会发生什么，以为自己是宇宙的主宰。
And it's written and and this is something that had an enormous impact on Howard Marks' life because it's really this idea that if everything changes, nothing stays the same and the future is unknowable, you better accommodate yourself to reality as it is instead of pretending to yourself that you know what the future holds and thinking that you're a master of the universe.
因此，它对他的生活产生了真正深远的影响。
So it actually had a really profound impact on how it's life.
我想向你询问这个话题，因为它与你讲述的关于你家庭的故事密切相关。
And I I wanted to ask you about this whole subject because it's it's very related to the story that that you told about your family.
对吧？
Right?
这个观点认为，世界充满深刻的不确定性，没有任何事物是真正稳定的。
This idea that the world is profoundly uncertain and nothing is truly stable.
当我们一起整理投资原则清单时，你提到了‘一切都在变化’这一原则，还和我谈到了侯赛因·沙博克希尔关于危机时期投资的演讲。
So you talked to me when we were working on that investing principles list and you were adding this principle about everything changes, you talked to me about Hossein Shabokshire's talk on investing in times of crisis.
你提到了各种战争和革命等，展示了世界有多么混乱。
You mentioned various wars and revolutions and the like, just showing just how chaotic the world has been.
你能谈谈这方面的情况吗？
Can you talk a bit about that?
因为我认为，对于我们这些生活在相对稳定国家如美国、英国和瑞士的人来说，大部分时间都身处这样的环境，很容易忘记世界实际上有多么不确定和动荡。
Because I think it's a really important recognition that for people like us who have lived in relatively stable countries like The US and The UK and Switzerland, where where you spend most of your time, much of your time, it's really easy to forget just how uncertain and tumultuous the world actually is.
是的。
Yeah.
在听侯赛因的演讲时，让我深受启发的是，他曾在黎巴嫩、埃及和沙特阿拉伯生活过，并与这三个国家都有着深厚的联系。
And, what was revelatory for me in listening to Hossein Hossein's talk, and and he sort of lived in in Lebanon and in Egypt and in Saudi Arabia and has deep connections within all three of those countries.
但我原本以为这仅仅是一种犹太人的经历，或者说是欧洲人的经历。
But I thought that this was just a sort of like a Jewish experience, if you like, or a European experience.
当我意识到这一点时，感到非常震撼，尤其是当你从以色列视角或西方视角看待中东历史时，你可能会忽视非犹太裔、非以色列的中东地区家庭和个人所面临的困境，而这一地区非常多元，充满变数。
And it was fascinating for me to realize that because and especially when you have kind of a a view of Middle East history from the Israeli perspective or maybe from the Western perspective, there is a capacity you know, I believe that I very much discounted the plights of families and of individuals from within the non Jewish Middle East, non Israeli Middle East, which is a very, very diverse region with a lot going on.
他描述了自己童年时期在埃及的期望是如何被彻底打破的——比如纳赛尔时代，然后是萨达特时代，接着是我不太确定，但好像叫‘绿色革命’。
So, he kind of described how his expectations as a child, I believe, growing up in Egypt were totally pulled apart by the I mean, you had Nasser and then you had Sadat and then you had I'm not sure, I believe it was called the Green Revolution.
同样地，这种事在黎巴嫩也发生了。
And but then the same thing kind of thing happened in Lebanon, for example.
如今的黎巴嫩与七十年代相比，已经截然不同了。
And Lebanon is a very, very different place now to what it was in in the seventies.
而且，谁知道沙特阿拉伯会走向何方呢？
And, you know, who knows where Saudi Arabia will go?
所以这是一个全球性的现象，我认为我们有一种这样的依恋。
So it's worldwide phenomenon, and I think that we have this kind of attachment.
我们总觉得事情会是永久的，但其实并非如此。
We kind of have this belief that things will be permanent, and they're not.
但我想对威廉说的是，我在生活和投资时，做了一些关于稳定自由民主国家持久性的假设，而这些假设我无法证明是正确的，我假设它们会是最后的幸存者，就像我们之前讨论过的那样——最后一个倒下的。
But what I would say, William, is that I am, in the way I am living my life and investing, making certain assumptions, which I can't prove to be true about the permanence of the stable liberal democracies, and I'm making assumptions that they will be the last man standing, to use something that we've talked about, the last man to fall if we like.
我认为，所有密切关注美国的人，都对‘中心能否维持’这一观点深感忧虑。
I think that all of us, close observers of The United States, have deep concerns about this idea of whether the center will hold.
我们拥有一个相当近期才建立的民主伟大实验，尽管这份奠基性文件存在巨大缺陷——我们刚刚在最近的校园枪击事件中看到了这些缺陷。
We have this incredible experiment in a democracy that was created not so long ago with this incredible foundational document in spite of its extraordinary flaws that we've just seen in the most recent school shooting.
但我们不禁怀疑，这一切是否会分崩离析。
But we wonder if it'll all get torn apart.
我有时觉得，我真想把法国观察家托克维尔的著作拿出来，他描述了美国民主：确实有宪法和制衡的政治架构，但它深深植根于那些非凡人物所形成的生活观之中。
I sometimes feel like I want to get Alexis de Tocqueville out, a French observer of American democracy who describes how really yes, there's a constitution and there's the political setup with checks and balances, but it's kind of very firmly based in the outlook of these very extraordinary people who learned a certain outlook on life.
美国的民主根基、尊重自由民主权利的传统，比宪法本身更为深厚，但我们始终担忧这些根基是否会分崩离析。
The democratic roots of The United States, liberal democratic rights respecting roots of The United States are far more deeply embodied, better than just the constitution, but we worry all the time about whether it'll be torn apart.
如果让美国得以运转的政治基因被撕裂，那么我认为，我们真的有理由对这个世界感到极度恐惧。
If the political DNA that makes The United States work is torn apart, then we really can, I think, be very, very fearful for the world?
有趣的是，威廉，你提到的那种氛围和潜藏的焦虑与恐惧——关于世界最终会走向何方——实际上推动了我，我不确定这是否恰当，但确实很有趣。
Interestingly enough, William, to your point about the kind of mood music and the underlying angst and fear about where the world might end end up kind of drove I I don't think it was well, it's interesting.
这或许是我决定迁往瑞士的最重要原因，因为我感到整个体系正在吱呀作响、摇摇欲坠。
I it maybe was the most important thing that drove out the decision to move to Switzerland, which was me say I felt the system sort of creaking and shaking.
我对自己说，我不想再把余生寄托在美国不会崩溃的假设上。
And I said to myself, I don't wanna live my life trusting that The United States won't fall apart.
我想生活在一个地方——这并不是说瑞士就不会崩溃，但在一个剧变频仍的世界里，当美国不再是一个稳定的自由民主国家时，瑞士或许仍有幸屹立不倒。
I want to live in a place It's not saying that Switzerland cannot fall apart, but I think it's in a world in which things change so drastically, where The United States is no longer a stable liberal democracy, there's a there's a chance that Switzerland might still be standing.
你知道吗？
You know?
是的。
Yeah.
确实是。
It is.
然后，当然了，威廉。
And then, of course, William
嗯，盖伊，你就像个自封的业余精神科医生，是吧。
Well, Guy, as you're amateur self appointed psychiatrist Yeah.
我不认为你最终定居瑞士是偶然的，因为瑞士在战争期间是个中立国。
I I don't think it's an accident that you ended up in Switzerland, which was a neutral country during the war.
是的。
Yeah.
然后，威廉，你知道，苏黎世还不够好。
And then and then, William, you know, Zurich's not good enough.
你需要在山里有个藏身之处。
You need to have your hole in the mountains.
所以你就去了克洛斯特斯。
So there's you know, so there you go to Closters.
但从克洛斯特斯出发，有一个我特别喜欢的地方，那是一个高铜山谷，名叫施拉平。
But then then from clusters, there's a place that I absolutely love, which is which is a high copper valley in a place called is a is a in a place called Schlapin.
我甚至想象，如果世界末日来临，我会躲到那里，看着山羊和其他一切。
And I actually imagine myself if the world comes to the end of days, I would go and hole myself up there and look the goats and what have you.
威廉，我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的信息。
William Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
当你经营一家小企业时，招聘到合适的人才至关重要。
When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.
合适的员工能提升团队水平，提高生产力，推动你的业务更上一层楼。
The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.
但找到这样的人本身可能就像一份全职工作。
But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.
这就是LinkedIn Jobs的用武之地。
That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.
他们的全新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。
Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.
无需翻阅大量简历，它会根据您的标准筛选申请人，并突出显示最匹配的人选，为您节省数小时时间，在合适的人选出现时快速推进招聘。
Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.
最棒的是，这些优秀候选人已经都在LinkedIn上。
The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.
事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。
In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.
一次就招对人。
Hire right the first time.
免费在 linkedin.com/studybill 发布职位，然后使用LinkedIn的新AI助手推广职位，更轻松快捷地找到顶尖候选人。
Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.
免费发布职位请访问 linkedin.com/studybill。
That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.
条款和条件适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
想象一下，借助真正理解您客户的科技来扩展您的业务。
Imagine scaling your business with technology that understands your customers, literally.
这就是Alexa和AWS AI背后的故事。
That's the story behind Alexa and AWS AI.
每天，Alexa在17种语言中处理超过10亿次交互，同时将客户摩擦降低40%。
Every day, Alexa processes over 1,000,000,000 interactions across 17 languages, all while reducing customer friction by 40%.
这不仅仅是让生活更轻松，更是关于转变客户互动并创造新的收入来源。
It's not just about making life easier, it's also about transforming customer engagement and generating new revenue streams.
在幕后，AWS AI驱动着70多个专用模型协同工作，打造自然对话，证明企业如何以信心和安全性大规模部署AI。
Behind the scenes, AWS AI powers more than 70 specialized models working together to create natural conversations, proving how enterprises can deploy AI at scale with confidence and security.
Alexa的AI能力在亚马逊庞大的运营中经过实战检验，实现了大规模的可衡量影响。
Alexa's AI capabilities were battle tested across Amazon's massive operations, delivering real measurable impact at scale.
同样的创新现在为其他企业提供了经过验证的框架，以提升效率、解锁新的收入来源并获得持久的市场优势。
These same innovations now give other businesses a proven framework to boost efficiency, unlock new revenue streams and gain a lasting market edge.
了解Alexa的故事
Discover the Alexa story
请访问aws.com/ai/r story。
at aws.com/ai/r story.
这就是 aws.com/ai/r 的故事。
That's aws.com/ai/r story.
你的比特币资产越多，面临的挑战就越复杂。
The more your Bitcoin holdings grow, the more complex your challenges become.
最初简单的自托管，如今已涉及家族传承规划、复杂的安保决策，以及应对可能让几代财富付诸东流的单次失误。
What started as a simple self custody now involves family legacy planning, sophisticated security decisions, and navigating situations where a single mistake could cost generations of wealth.
标准服务并未为这些高风险的现实情况而设计。
Standard services weren't built for these high stakes realities.
因此，长期投资者选择 Unchained Signature——这是一项专为认真持有比特币的人士提供的高端私人客户服务，提供专业指导、稳健托管和持久的合作关系。
That's why long term investors choose Unchained Signature, a premium private client service for serious Bitcoin holders who want expert guidance, resilient custody, and an enduring partnership.
使用 Signature 服务，您将配备专属客户经理，他们了解您的目标，并在每一步为您提供帮助。
With Signature, you're paired with your own dedicated account manager, someone who understands your goals and helps you every step of the way.
您将享受全方位的入职服务、当日紧急支持、个性化教育、降低交易费用，以及优先参与独家活动和功能的权益。
You get white glove onboarding, same day emergency support, personalized education, reduced trading fees, and priority access to exclusive events and features.
Unchained 的协作托管模式旨在为那些希望自行保管私钥的用户，提供与全球最大比特币托管机构同等的安全保障。
Unchained's collaborative custody model is designed to provide the same security posture as the world's biggest Bitcoin custodians, but for those who prefer to hold their own keys.
了解更多关于Unchained Signature的信息，请访问unchained.com/preston。
Learn more about Unchained signature at unchained.com/preston.
结账时使用代码Preston 10，可享受首年10%折扣。
Use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first year.
比特币不仅仅是为了生活。
Bitcoin isn't just for life.
而是为了世代传承。
It's for generations.
好的。
Alright.
回到节目。
Back to the show.
你与伦敦也有密切联系。
You also have close links to London.
因此，你现在在英国也有家了，因为你的孩子在英国接受教育。
So now you have a home in in The UK as well because your kids are being educated in The UK.
然后，我猜你还在以色列有一个藏身之处，可以逃往那里。
And then presumably, you also have a boat hole in Israel and where you could where you could flee.
所以，我觉得这很有趣，因为在你的投资原则部分，你提到我们生活在一个充满不确定性的世界，事情可能随时变化，正如侯赛因所说，你需要有全球视野，与各地建立联系和关系。
And so I I mean, it's interesting because in your investing principle section, you were kinda saying one one of the morals of what an uncertain world we live in, where things can change and of what Hossein said, is that you need to take a global view and you wanna have connections and relationships everywhere.
你不仅仅只想分散资产。
You don't just wanna diversify your assets.
你实际上需要为你的家人、企业和投资准备备用计划和逃生通道。
You actually wanna have backup plans and escape hatches for your family and your business and your investments.
这看起来是对世界的一种悲观看法，但我感觉你确实在通过投资方式，甚至生活方式来对冲风险——如果某个地方出问题，你已经留出了很大的安全边际。
It's a pretty dark view of the world, but I I feel like you're you're kinda hedging you're hedging your bets with the way that you not only the way that you invest, but actually the way that you live that there's a little bit there's a there's a big margin of safety built in if things go wrong in one place.
你知道，我父亲在他的保险箱里放着金币。
You know, my father has gold coins in his safe.
我得告诉你，我的保险箱里没有金币。
I have to tell you that I don't have gold coins in the safe.
我和一位朋友聊过，他问如果美国和俄罗斯爆发核战争，全球金融市场会怎样？这显然是很多人关心的问题，我认为过去一两年里，这种可能性上升了，而不是下降了。
So I had a conversation with a friend who was asking what happens to global financial markets if there's a nuclear exchange between The United States and Russia, which is on a lot of people's minds, I think that we certainly have to accept that the probability of that has gone up in the last year or two rather than gone down.
有人提出疑问，是否应该购买深度价外的看跌期权，以便在世界陷入绝境时，手中有一些已经价内的看跌期权。
The question arose whether one should buy puts on the market, deep out of the money puts so that if the world goes to hell in a handbasket, you have some puts that are in the money.
我的问题是，在那种情况下，银行还会存在并兑现你的看跌期权吗？
My question was, will the banks be there to cash in your puts?
也许在那种世界状态下，银行已经不复存在或无力支付，因此，尽管我和那个人都不是黄金爱好者，但或许真正该做的，就是把黄金存在保险箱里。
Maybe in that state of the world, the banks are not around or unable to pay out, In which case, in spite of neither that person or I being gold bugs, maybe the right thing to have done would have been to just own gold in the safe.
我听到数百万听众现在都在问：那比特币呢？
And I hear millions of our listeners now saying, What about Bitcoin?
比特币怎么办？
What about Bitcoin?
鉴于现在许多人认为，如果你想要逃离某个国家或确保政府无法触碰你的资产，比特币是更好的选择。
Given that that's also now by many people regarded as a as a as a better thing to have if you wanna flee and get out of a country or make sure that your government doesn't doesn't touch your assets.
你对比特币作为应对灾难的对冲工具有任何兴趣吗？
Do you have do you have any any fascination with Bitcoin as a as a of a hedge against disaster?
我对比特币毫无兴趣。
I have no fascination with Bitcoin.
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我对比特币对人们产生的影响很感兴趣，也对一些人似乎在比特币上赚取的巨额财富感到好奇，但我自己没有比特币并不让我感到困扰。
I have a fascination with what Bitcoin does to people, and I have a fascination with the amounts of money that some people seem to have made in Bitcoin, but it it doesn't doesn't really bother me that I don't have any.
你知道，我确实玩过。
And, you know, I've I've played with it.
我在Coinbase上有账户，也在MetaMask上有账户，还有一个比特币现金账户，我用这些账户发送和接收过现金或比特币，所以并不是我对它完全一无所知。
I have an account in, Coinbase and I have an account with MetaMask and I have a Bitcoin Cash account and I've sent and received cash or Bitcoin using that account, so it's not like I'm completely ignorant of it.
这没什么问题。
It's fine.
我也不持有黄金，所以没有。
I don't own gold either, so no.
我不想在这里深入太多细节，但为了让听众理解，你对这两者（黄金和比特币）的疑虑，是否源于巴菲特式的观点，即它们根本不是能产生收益的资产？
Without wanting to go into too much detail here, but just so people understand, is your misgiving about both of those things, the classic BuffettMonger point that these just aren't productive assets?
这是一个值得深入探讨的有趣问题。
It's an interesting question to dive into.
我觉得我不想偏离话题，我只是想澄清一件事，本来我想放一放，但还是决定说出来。
Feel like I don't want to divert the conversation, I just want to address something that I thought I'd let go, but I won't.
好的想法是永恒的，其来源总是超越我们自身。
Good ideas are eternal and always have a provenance that is beyond ourselves.
但我已经明白，这真的非常有力：承认一个想法的来源，承认你自己的来源，并不会贬低你自己。
But I've learned, and it's really so powerful, that you never diminish yourself by acknowledging the provenance of an idea, acknowledging the provenance of an idea, your provenance.
所以其他人可能会以不同的方式运用这个想法。
So other people might have a different route that they take with the idea.
就此而言，我曾私下对威廉说过，如果不承认这个想法的来源——我的来源，一切都会改变，我错失了向威廉致谢的机会，而事实上，这样做对所有人都有好处。
And and so for what it's worth, and I've said this to William privately, by by not acknowledging the provident the providence, my providence of the idea, everything changes, I missed an opportunity to give credit to William and to and because it just, like, benefits everyone in any case.
向他人致谢，比如米洛·琼斯，他是ValueX的与会者，也是多所大学的安全分析教授，他曾谈到，我们今天所理解的价值投资哲学，很大程度上是一种中西部思维，源于在这片广阔经济与大陆中心成长起来的人——正如我在年度信件中多次提及的，这种背景带来了特定历史视角下的诸多优势。
Giving credit to somebody else, Milo Jones, who attends ValueX, who's a security analyst, professor of security analysis at various universities, he's talked about how the philosophy of value investing as we understand it today is very much a Midwestern mindset, somebody who grew up in the very middle of this vast economy and continent that I've talked about in my annual letters with all the advantages that that has from a particular perspective of history.
如果你所持的观点是——一切都会改变，世界可能被彻底颠覆——那么，如果你不住在奥马哈，你是否应该盲目追随沃伦·巴菲特的哲学？这套哲学或许适合他在奥马哈的环境，但未必适用于伦敦、苏黎世或其他地方。
And if you're kind of taking the perspective that you're kind of like bringing up, which is everything changes, the world could be turned upside down, there's a real question if you don't live in Omaha, should you have should you slavishly adopt the same philosophy that Warren Buffett does, which might work for him in Omaha, but might not work from the perspective of London or Zurich or somewhere else.
但我想，我已经采纳了一种视角，现在我将围绕这个视角来回答你的问题，威廉。
So, but I think that a perspective that I've adopted, so I'm gonna bring this around to answering your question, William.
因此，拥有能产生可衡量现金回报的生产性资产——即你能花掉的现金回报——我认为这是一种了不起的哲学，它确实超越了奥马哈的视角以及沃伦·巴菲特成长的那个特定时代。
So this idea of owning productive assets, meaning assets that earn a return in measurable cash, cash that you can spend, is I think an incredible philosophy that actually does transcend the Omaha perspective and the particular period of time in which Warren Buffett grew up.
我并不是对比特币有疑虑。
It's not that I have misgivings about Bitcoin.
我只是不想把我的一生投入到那些不能产生现金回报的资产上。
It's just that I don't want to spend my life in assets, around assets that aren't cash productive.
有很多非常值得尊敬的资产是不能产生现金回报的。
There are plenty of highly respectable assets that are not cash productive.
比如，如果你拥有石油，有很多石油交易商拥有石油，但石油本身并不能产生现金回报。
All the kind of like If you own oil, there are plenty of oil traders who own oil, it's not cash productive.
它只是放在那里，最终你才能卖掉它。
It just sits there, then eventually you can sell it.
它确实有工业用途，但还有很多其他资产，比如艺术界就是一个明显的例子。
Now, it has an industrial use, but there are plenty of assets that the art world is an obvious one.
如果你在荒无人烟的地方购买土地，泰德·特纳就是土地的狂热爱好者，但他拥有的是不能产生现金回报的土地。
If you buy land in the middle of nowhere, and Ted Turner was a big fan of owning land, but he owned non cash productive land.
他购买了森林和美国一些在很长一段时间内都不会有任何发展的地区。
He bought forests and parts of The United States where nothing was going to happen for a very long time.
并不是我对它有疑虑。
It's not that I have misgivings.
并不是我想贬低加密货币。
It's not that I want to diss cryptocurrencies.
我只是选择将我的一生投入到思考能产生现金的资产上。
It's just that I have chosen to spend my life trying to think about assets that produce cash.
整个风险投资领域，所有那些不产生现金的公司，在我看来都属于同一类。
All of the venture capital world, all of the companies that are not producing cash are in, for me, the same category.
它们在消耗现金。
They're consuming cash.
拥有它们需要付出成本。
They cost something to own.
它们本身并不产生任何收益，所以我只是想明确一点，问题并不在于比特币。
They don't produce anything in and of themselves, and so I just wanted to be clear that it's not Bitcoin that I have a problem with.
我只是不想与非生产性资产为伍。
It's just that I don't wanna be around nonproductive assets.
是的。
Yeah.
通往山顶的路有很多条。
There there are a lot of paths up the mountain.
当我在这档播客中采访乔·格林布拉特时，他的一番话给我留下了深刻印象，他说：看。
I I think when when I interviewed Joe Greenblatt on this podcast, it really impressed me the way he just said, look.
我不需要玩这个游戏。
I I don't need to play that game.
这根本不是我必须参与的游戏。
It's just not the game I need to play.
另一方面，几周前我在播客中采访比尔·米勒时，他也让我印象深刻，他当时反驳了巴菲特和芒格对比特币的看法。
I also loved actually, on the other hand, what Bill Miller said to me when I interviewed him a few weeks ago on the podcast where he said he he was disputing what Buffett and and Munger had said about Bitcoin.
他说，投资的目标并不是拥有能产生收益的资产。
And he said, the goal of investing is not to own productive assets.
投资的目标是赚钱。
It's to make money.
我觉得比尔的这种观点非常出色。
And I thought there was something really wonderful about Bill's.
这太符合比尔的风格了。
It was so characteristic of Bill.
比尔在智力上对一切事物都持完全中立的态度，他心想：是啊。
There's something totally agnostic about everything that Bill does intellectually that he he was thinking, yeah.
我为什么非得拥有生产性资产呢？
Why why do why do I need to own productive assets?
它会升值吗？
Is it gonna go up?
它能赚钱吗？
Is it gonna make money?
供需关系好吗？
Is this Is the supply demand picture good?
比尔的思想非常自由开放。
There's something very free thinking about Bill.
所以对我来说，有趣的是，我采访过的每一个关于比特币的人，都很好地反映了他们看待世界的方式。
So to me, what was interesting is everyone I've interviewed about Bitcoin, it's a really good reflection of how they approach the world.
当你采访霍华德·马克斯关于比特币时，他说：是的，我应该更谦逊，承认自己并不了解，实际上我儿子比我还懂这个。
When you interview Howard Marks about Bitcoin, he says, yeah, I should be more humble, and I should recognize that I don't know and that my son actually understood this better than me.
对他来说，这是一种提醒，要保持谦逊。
For him, it's a reminder of the need to be humble.
对乔·格林布拉特来说，这是一种提醒，要玩那些适合自己的游戏，玩自己有能力赢的游戏。
For Joe Greenblatt, it's a reminder to play games that suit him, games that he's equipped to win.
对比尔·米勒来说，就是它会涨吗？
For Bill Miller, it's like, is it gonna go up?
这是一种……它到底是什么？
It's it's a sort of what what is it?
比特币是什么？
What is Bitcoin?
我该如何从哲学上描述它？
How do I describe it philosophically?
所以这对我来说很有趣。
So so it's interesting to me.
所以对你来说，这背后有一些特点。
So for you, there is something characteristic about this.
如果你只是说，嗯，我不需要贬低它。
If you're just saying, Yeah, I don't need to diss it.
我不知道。
I don't know.
也许它会很棒。
Maybe it'll be great.
但，是的，我想要
But, yeah, I want
拥有能产生收益的资产。
to own I've productive assets.
经常思考奢侈品，以及奢侈品行业，还有世界上一些最著名的奢侈品牌所体现的不同文化。
Thinking luxury a lot goods and business of luxury and thinking a lot about the different cultures, even in some of the world's most celebrated luxury brands.
例如，LVMH作为一家公司的文化与爱马仕截然不同，两者都处于行业巅峰。
LVMH as a corporation has a very, very different culture, for example, to Helmere's, both at the top of their game.
LVMH的文化具备收购其他企业的能力。
LVMH is a culture that's capable of acquiring other businesses.
至少我读过一篇论文，指出爱马仕的所有增长都是内部的、有机的，并且存在一些结构性原因，使得爱马仕不太适合收购其他企业。
At least I read one paper that suggested that Hermes, all the growth has been internal, has been organic, and there are kind of structural reasons as to why Hermes would not do well to acquire another business.
在瑞士，奢侈品行业主要集中在手表领域。
In Switzerland, the luxury business is mainly around watches.
对我来说，从远处观察这一切非常有趣。
It's been fascinating for me to kind of just observe from a distance.
我并不拥有任何拥有奢侈品牌的企业，但我想象一位非常高端的手表制造商，他热爱制作手表。
I don't own any businesses that own luxury brands, but I I imagine the watchmaker, a very high end watchmaker who loves making watches.
然后，背后还有一整套商业体系。
Then, you know, there's there's a whole business behind it.
你可以赚取巨额利润。
You can make enormous amounts of money.
于是比尔·米勒出现了，他说：谁在乎手表是自动上链、手动上链还是电子驱动的呢？
And and so Bill Miller comes along and says, who cares if the watch has a an automatic or a manual or an electronic, wind mechanism?
消费者想买它吗？
Does the consumer wanna buy it?
它能赚钱吗？这么说吧？
Does it make money, so to speak?
有一些个性鲜明的人会抬头说：我不知道，但我就是喜欢制作机械表，这就是我的工作，我靠它过着不错的生活。
And there are personalities and characters who would just look up and then just say, I don't know, but I just like making mechanical watches and this is what I do and I have a nice life doing it.
所以，我看待自己与沃伦之间的对话，也是类似的方式——我认为这是一种选择，我愉快地、有意识地做出了这个选择。
So I kind of see the the the kind of conversation with with Warren in the same way is they they and I think that it's a choice I I it's a choice that I happily and consciously make.
我认为，把一生花在思考如何构建企业、什么让企业运转、什么让企业长久生存上，比像比尔那样专注于预测什么会上涨的生活更有趣、更令人享受。
I think that a life spent thinking about how to build businesses and what makes businesses tick, what makes businesses, have a long lasting life is a more interesting life and a more enjoyable life than one in which we're just figuring out, as Bill is very good at, what's going to go up.
我想我最近才意识到这一点：即使我能保证通过像比尔·米勒那样看待世界来赚更多的钱——当然，实际上并没有这样的保证——我仍然宁愿不过那样的生活。
I think that I got to this, I don't know, not that long ago where I kind of said, even if I could be guaranteed to make more money, and there are no such guarantees, by thinking of the world the way Bill Miller thinks about the world, I'd rather not live that life.
我不想思考那些事情。
I don't want be thinking those things.
我想思考那些创业者所思考的事情。
I wanna be thinking the things that people who build businesses do.
我觉得这更有趣、更有趣。
I think that's just more fun and more interesting.
我认为真正的关键在于以真正符合你自我的方式投资。
I I think the real key is just to invest in a way that's deeply true to who you are.
是的。
Yeah.
这就像一位充满激情的创业者，约翰·李·杜马斯。
And and this is kind of like just a entrepreneur on fire, John Lee Dumas.
他会称之为价值炸弹。
He'd call that a value bomb.
别试图成为最聪明的人。
Don't try to be the smartest person.
别试图做出最好的投资。
Don't try to make the best investment.
让投资最贴近你真实的自我和本性，我认为这对每个进行投资的人来说都是一种非常有力的体验。
Make the investments the truest to who you are and truest to your nature, I think, just a very empowering thing for every person who goes about investing.
我最近在思考比尔·阿克曼，你过去曾与他关系密切，也认识他很久了。
I was thinking about this recently with Bill Ackman, who you've been close to in the past and known for a long time.
比尔在像Valiant这样的项目上经历过巨大的失败，但随后又在金融危机——抱歉，是新冠疫情刚爆发时取得了巨大的成功。
Bill has had these massive blowups with things like Valiant, but then has had massive hits, right, when the when the financial crisis sorry, when the when COVID first hit.
我认为他在市场崩盘和随后的复苏中都表现得极其出色。
I think he he played the meltdown brilliantly and then the rebound brilliantly.
他身上有一种自信甚至张扬的气场。
And there's something kind of swaggering and bold.
我认为，对于我这样更保守的人来说，看到这些往往会摇头感叹：天啊。
I think sometimes sometimes for someone like me who's more conservative, I would look at and I would kinda shake my head and be like, god.
他怎么能做到这一点？
How does he do that?
这太疯狂了。
That's nuts.
但这实际上非常符合他本人的本质，就像比尔·米勒将他个人投资组合的80%以上投入比特币和亚马逊一样，这完全契合比尔·米勒的本性。
But it's actually deeply true to who he is in the same way that Bill Miller having 80 something percent of his personal investment portfolio in Bitcoin and Amazon is deeply true to who Bill Miller is.
我认为，这一点最近频繁浮现在我脑海中，我不知道为什么，当我们阅读这些投资者的故事，或当我们认识并亲近某位投资者时，我们往往不了解决定他们能否做出这些决策和押注的、关于他们生活的诸多细节。
I think that, and it's something that's come to my mind a lot recently, I don't know why, that when we read about these investors, when we know an investor personally and we're close to them, there is so much that we don't know about their lives that determine whether or not they can take the decisions and the bets that they're taking.
有些人拥有非凡的安全保障，比如我想到比尔·阿克曼，我不知道他的祖先是什么时候移民到美国的，但至少是两代以前了，生活在美國所带来的安全感。
Somebody who has an extraordinary amount of security, who's lived several I mean, I think of Bill Ackman, who, I don't know when his ancestors immigrated to The United States, but it's at least two generations ago, the security of living in The United States.
他的父亲从事房地产业，家中可能拥有一定数量的家族地产，为他提供了巨大的下行保护，这与一个没有这种安全基础的近期移民相比，构成了截然不同的投资起点。
A father who was in the real estate business, probably a certain amount of family real estate sitting there providing an enormous amount of downside protection, creates a very different base from which to start investing in stocks and shares, for example, than somebody who's a recent immigrant who doesn't have that secure base.
当我们审视某人的投资组合时，通常只看到了冰山一角，而看不到水下的部分。
Often when we look at somebody's portfolio, we're just seeing kind of the tip of the iceberg, we don't know what's underneath.
偶尔我们会看到一些人展现出水面上令人惊叹的表现，但实际上水下却没什么支撑。
Every now and then we have people who are showing something that looks spectacular above the waterline, but actually there's not much to back it up below the waterline.
有些人确实成功了，而另一些人，哪怕发生最微小的变故，也会因为水下缺乏足够的压舱物而表现不佳。
Some of those people actually succeed, and some people, and the smallest thing happens, actually because there's not enough kind of ballast below the waterline, don't do particularly well.
当我提到像比尔这样的人时，我脑海中浮现的想法是——我当然比了解比尔·阿克曼更了解比尔，远比了解比尔·米勒更了解比尔——但我们并不知道那些背后隐藏的东西。
I think that what comes to my mind when we bring up people like Bill and I obviously know Bill better than I know Bill Ackman way better than I know Bill Miller, is we don't know what's underlying that.
我想对你说的是，如果我拥有和比尔·米勒相同的基因、脑细胞和学术训练，但成长在比尔·米勒的环境中，我或许也能用同样的头脑，以接近比尔·米勒的方式行事；或者，如果我拥有和比尔·阿克曼一样的背景，但你根本无法人为制造这种条件。
I think my point to you is if the same set of genetics brain cells academic training in me had grown up in the circumstances of Bill Miller, I might have been able to take the same mind and behave far closer to the way Bill behaved Bill Miller behaves, or if I'd had the same background as Bill Ackman, I but there's no way you can manufacture that.
它必须源自内心。
It has to come from within.
它必须来自某种深层的东西——如果我同时用了八个隐喻的话，它必须来自冰山那部分看不见的底座，如果你愿意这么理解的话。
It has to come from sort of like if I'm I'm mixing about eight metaphors at once here, it has to come from from what is the part of the iceberg that doesn't show, if you like.
所以我认为，关键在于，没有人应该嫉妒比尔·米勒或比尔·阿克曼的投资方式，因为即使你拥有同样的头脑，甚至更好的头脑，如果你没有他们那样独特的人生经历和安全感、资产支撑，你就不可能做到这一点。
And so I think the point is, you know, there's don't nobody should be envious of the way Bill Miller or the way Bill Ackman invests because even if you have the same mind or a better mind, if you don't have the same set of unique life experiences and kind of like security assets, if you like, around, you would not be able to do that.
因此，我认为，当人们做这种13F分析时，必须意识到：我的13F报告甚至不涵盖我的非美国投资。
So, and I just think that the analysis of realize that when people do this 13F analysis, I mean, my 13Fs don't even cover my non US investments.
即使它们涵盖了所有美国投资，它们是否考虑了其他地方正在发生的事情？
Even if they covered all of The US investments, do they take into account what is going on elsewhere?
对我而言，实际上，当我曾在卡内基音乐厅大厦拥有办公室时，我和一位投资者共享了同一个基金的投资者，他同时也是比尔·阿克曼的投资者——一位非常棒的人，我不会提他的名字，因为他可能不希望被提及，但他确实教会了我很多。
Relevant to me, actually, at one point, when I had an office in Carnegie Hall Tower, I shared an investor with an investor in my fund was also an investor with Bill Ackman, a wonderful, wonderful guy whose name I won't mention because maybe he doesn't want to be mentioned, but really taught me a lot.
他让我做的一件事是，他说：‘盖伊，我和比尔一起，我拥有所有这些绝佳的点子，而我把所有资金都集中在比尔最看好的那些想法上。'
One of the things that he asked me to do is he said, Guy, with Bill, I have all these great ideas and I'm concentrated in Bill's best ideas.
你的投资组合里，我有一些真正很棒、我非常喜欢的点子。
Your portfolio, I have some really great ideas that I love.
当时有一些像达夫和菲利普斯、阿拉斯加牛奶这样的投资，它们有潜力上涨数倍，但也可能归零。
And at the time, there were things like Duff and Phelps and Alaska Milk and these kind of ideas that that had the capacity to go up many times but also had the capacity to be zeros.
他说，但我不想要你的雀巢、伯克希尔哈撒韦这些股票。
And he said, but I I don't want your Nestle and Berkshire Hathaway and all of those things.
我曾认真考虑过将投资组合分开，一部分放所谓的‘最佳且疯狂’的点子，另一部分放安全稳健的点子。
I don't and I I thought long and hard about splitting the portfolio so that you had the kind of, quote, best and crazy ideas along with the safe and secure ideas.
但我最终决定不这么做，因为我希望所有投资都放在同一个篮子里。
I decided not to do that because I felt like I wanted it all to be in one bucket.
通常，如果你考虑那些想靠为他人管理资金来发展事业的人，他们无法把最能保障安全的点子放进投资组合。
Often, if you think about how the people who want to develop a business of investing other people's money, they can't put the ideas that are gonna make them the most secure into the portfolio.
他们必须放入那些最有可能带来高回报的点子。
Need to put the ideas that have the highest probability of high performance, if you like.
这就造成了一个非常极端、非常偏斜的投资组合视角。
And that creates a very, very secure skewed view, a very skewed portfolio, if you like.
我想，为什么我会想到这一点？
I think that why does it come up for me?
因为你要意识到，那些人确实在这么做。
Because realize that those people are doing that.
这么做本身完全没有问题，但你不应该把全部身家都投进去。
There's absolutely nothing wrong with doing that, but you should not put your life savings into that.
你应该合理控制风险，将你储蓄的一定比例投入其中。
You should you should apply the appropriate risk and put x percent of your savings into it.
也许可以多投入一些高风险资金。
Just maybe more risk money.
我不知道我怎么扯到这儿了，威廉，但现在我要把话题交给你，帮我拉回正轨。
I don't know why I went there, William, but now I'm gonna I'm gonna turn this over to you to get me back on track.
嗯，不是的。
Well, no.
我们的思维都很非线性，所以现在我们离我原本预期的进展已经偏了400英里，这还挺有条理的。
It's we both have very nonlinear minds, so we're about 400 miles away from where I expected to be at this point, which is pretty, pretty managed
来谈谈我想到的归因问题，我觉得我们之前漏掉了这一点。
to get my thing in about attribution, which I thought we'd missed.
这很好。
That's good.
我的思路其实是想和你聊聊你的家族历史，以及关于不确定性，还有霍辛·沙博克西（如果我发音正确的话）在不同国家面临的不确定性所带给我们的启示。我认为，你和你的投资方式非常独特的一点在于，你一直在努力打造一种具有韧性、能够持久、经得起时间考验的东西。
I mean, my my train of thought really in wanting to talk to you about your family history and the uncertainty and the lessons from Hossein Shaboxi, if I'm pronouncing that right, about the uncertainty in different countries, is that I think one of the things that's very distinctive about you and the way that you invest is that you've tried to build something that's resilient, that's going to last, that's going to endure.
这看起来非常独特，而你已经走过了将近二十五年的旅程。
And that seems very distinctive, and you're almost twenty five years into your journey.
对吧？
Right?
很多由非常聪明的人管理的对冲基金都已经倒闭了。
So a lot of hedge funds have fallen by the wayside run by very brilliant people.
令我震惊的是，有那么多管理良好、由非常聪明的人运营的基金，因为各种原因相继失败，这真的让我很震惊。
It's shocking to me about how many well run funds run by some very smart people have fallen by the wayside for one reason or another, really shocking to me actually.
因此，可持续性和持久性这个问题至关重要，尤其是对我们许多非专业投资者的听众而言。
So this question of sustainability and endurance is hugely important, particularly for our listeners, many of whom are not professional investors.
许多专业投资者都参与了一场略显无意义的游戏，试图通过半个百分点、一个百分点或几个百分点来战胜市场。
And a lot of professional investors are engaged in this game that's slightly meaningless of trying to beat the market by half a percentage point, a percentage point, a couple of percentage points.
对于普通投资者而言，我们希望在一生中实现财务安全，无论是十年、二十年、三十年、四十年还是五十年，我们能够教育孩子、顺利退休、住在自己喜欢的房子里——这与你所从事的事业更为相似，即努力在一代人的时间里构建具有韧性的财富。
For regular investors, we want to get to the destination of being financially secure over the course of a lifetime, over ten, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, we can educate our kids, so we can retire, so we can live in a home that we like, which is much more similar to the pursuit that you've been engaged in, where you're actually trying to build resilient wealth over a generation.
因此，我想更深入地探讨你是如何完成这一任务的，因为我认为这其中蕴含着一些非常重要的经验。
So I wanna talk in more depth about how you go about that task, because I think there are some really important lessons there.
让我们先从这个问题开始：为什么这么多人最终失败了？其中一些人比你更聪明，一些人比你更努力，还有一些人看起来本应取得难以置信的成功，但他们却全都失败了。
Let's start with this question of why so many people have fallen by the wayside, Some of whom are smarter than you, some of whom are harder working than you, some of some of whom, you know, would seem like they would be unbelievably successful, and yet they've all fallen by the wayside.
为什么？
Why?
当你回顾那些未能经受住时间考验的人时，问题出在哪里？
What went wrong when you look at the people who haven't stood the test of time?
如果我从专业投资领域来看，威廉，这真的非常非常困难。这个行业一个未言明的真相是，你需要让人们信任你，把资产交给你管理，否则你就没有生意可做。
If I look in the professional investing world, William, it is really, really hard to So an unspoken or a truth of that business is that you need people to trust you with their assets because otherwise you don't have a business.
有个人曾说：致富的方法就是手握几十亿资金，这样当好事出现时，你就能投资进去。
Some guy who said, The way to get wealthy is to have a few billion lying around so that when something good comes along, you can invest in it.
一位著名人士说过，他没提几十亿，但意思就是，你最终想达到的就是这个境界。
Some famous guy said, he didn't talk about a few billion, but it's like, yeah, but that's where you want to get to.
你是个从商学院出来的聪明人。
You're a smart guy out of business school.
你是个在任何地方都很聪明的人。
You're a smart guy somewhere.
你掌握了所有的想法。
You get all the ideas.
你知道自己有能力。
You know you're capable.
你真的很想试试身手，但你现在面对着一道巨大的困难之墙：我该怎么获得可管理的资产？
You really want to try your hand at this, but now you're faced with this extraordinary wall of difficulty, which is how am I going to get assets to manage?
因为如果我没有资产，就没有业绩记录。
Because if I don't have assets, I don't have a track record.
如果没有业绩记录，没人会信任我。
If I don't have a track record, nobody's going to trust me.
那么，你该如何让这件事启动起来呢？
So how do you get this thing off the ground?
这条路径，是一个巨大的进入壁垒。
The path, that's a huge barrier to entry.
人们采取的一种路径，往往并非有意识的，我并不是说像白雪公主那样，而是不知不觉中，他们发现当自己坐下来展示一个充满乏味但优质想法的投资组合时——这些想法对潜在投资者来说很无聊，但投资组合的管理者知道它们很优秀——他们意识到，对于那些他们需要其资产来管理的潜在投资者来说，根本得不到什么实质性的回应。
One of the paths that people take, not consciously, and they don't I was snow white, but I drifted, is that they realize that when they sit down and they show a portfolio that is full of boring but good ideas, boring to the prospective investor but the person running the portfolio knows that they're good ideas, they realize that they're not getting much paydirt with prospective investors whose assets they need in order to manage.
顺便提一下，我记得曾向Posse集团推介Weetabix，该集团包括大卫·艾德根，比尔·阿克曼也曾几次出席。
Just a very brief sidebar, I remember presenting Weetabix to the Posse Group, which included David Iadgen, Bill Ackman attended a few times.
惠特尼·蒂尔森，那是我住在纽约的那些年。
Whitney Tilson in the years when I lived in New York.
Weetabix这个想法，实际上是我与尼克·斯利普建立联系的契机。
Weetabix was actually the idea through which I connected with Nick Sleep.
不知怎么的，他得知我持有这只股票，因为我写过关于它的文章，有人把文章转给了他。
Somehow he'd found out that I owned it because I'd written about it and somebody had forwarded it to him.
于是我们就通过这一点建立了联系。
And so we connected on that.
任何在英国生活过的人都知道Weetabix，它在麦片市场占有50%的份额，是一家家族企业，市盈率仅为四倍，且没有债务。
Anybody who's lived in The UK knows Weetabix, has got 50% market share in the cereal market, was a family controlled business and was trading at four times earnings and had no debt.
当你去公司实地考察时，会发现它运营得极其出色。
When you visited the company, saw it was extraordinarily well run.
就这样。
That was it.
这个想法本身就已经完整了。
That was the whole idea right there.
我记得向这个团体展示过它，大家都觉得，虽然没明说，但潜台词是：这家伙就只能想出这种点子。
I remember presenting it to the posse, and everybody was like, this is, you know, the the subtext, it wasn't said, was that's all this guy can come up with.
我的意思是，这个想法并不是为了迎合什么而设计的，但它最终取得了非凡的成功。
You know, I mean, was not idea that an idea that was designed to, the the idea worked out extraordinarily well.
我当时正在度蜜月，而它的股价在出售时已经上涨了八倍。
I was on my honeymoon and it had gone up, I don't know, eight times in the sale.
另外一位持有者名叫汤姆·鲁索，我想你曾经采访过他。
The other guy who owned it was a guy called Tom Russo, by the way, that I think that you've interviewed.
所以这些都是一些非常好但不吸引人的想法。
So those are kind of very good but unsexy ideas.
于是你悄悄地、潜意识里，迫切希望在事业上成功，开始倾向于选择那些你知道潜在投资者会觉得吸引人的投资理念。
And so you quietly, you know, subconsciously, desperate to succeed in your business, start gravitating towards ideas in your portfolio that you know prospective investors will find sexy.
现在，如果像威廉这样敏锐的采访者问你：‘你觉得你是否在参与某种群体思维？或者你的理念是否存在一种偏向，倾向于选择那些能让你的投资组合看起来更好的东西？’
And now if some astute interviewer like William says, hey, do you think you might be engaging in some kind of group think, or do you think that there might be some kind of selection bias in your ideas towards what's going to make your portfolio look good?
你知道，如果一个人极其有自知之明，他会认真接受这个观点。
You know, the person, if they were extremely self aware, would take that point on board.
但即使如此，大多数情况下人们还是会说：‘哦，绝对不是。’
But even if they were and and most cases say, oh, absolutely not.
你知道吧？
You know?
但即使一个人极其清醒，这个问题也极其难以启齿，因为它最终回归到一个根本问题：我如何说服别人把钱交给我，以便我能积累资产管理规模并建立业绩记录？
But even if they were extremely aware, it's just an extraordinarily painful question to ask because it comes back to this basic question of how do I convince people to send me their money so that I can get assets under management and that I can get a track record going.
所以我认识的一些已经失败的人，发现自己不知不觉被这些类型的想法吸引，这些想法本身并不是明显夸大或糟糕的生意。
So people that I know who've fallen by the wayside have found themselves drawn into these kinds of ideas, which it's it's not kind of obviously a puffed up sort of bad business.
有时这些企业由非常优秀的首席执行官运营，并拥有一群星光熠熠的投资者，参与这些企业看起来非常有面子。
Sometimes these are extraordinary businesses run by very, very high quality CEOs that have a star studded roster of investors, and it looks really good to be involved in those businesses.
这似乎能为你增光，但碰巧的是，你买入时的价格太高了。
It sort of reflects well on you, but it just so happens that you've bought them at too high a price.
如果像最近发生的那样，这些价格大幅下跌，你就会发现自己赤身裸体了。
If, as has happened recently, those prices come down dramatically, suddenly you've got no clothes on.
当潮水退去时，你才能看清谁在裸泳，于是人们纷纷被淘汰。
You find out when the tide's gone out who's swimming with no clothes and so then people fall by the wayside.
这些非常聪明的人并没有意识到，他们正悄然转向某种思维模式和投资风格，因为市场期望他们这么做。
And and these very smart people who did not realize that they were kind of quietly moving into a certain mindset, a certain style of investing because that's what the market expected of them.
这才是他们成功募集资金的方式。
That's how they could successfully raise money.
但当你意识到，当潮水退去时你一直在游泳，无论出于什么原因，你最终都会关闭业务——要么是因为你的未来已不复存在，所有人都意识到你的游戏结束了，要么是你自己意识到，你原本是白雪公主，却随波逐流，再也无法忍受继续运营这个基金。
And then, you know but then when you realize that you've been swimming when the tide went out, for one reason or another, you close-up shop, basically, either because your future you don't have a future because everybody realizes that the game's up for you, or you realize yourself that you went you were snow white but you drifted and you kind of can't bear to continue to run that vehicle.
这是我见过的一种模式。
That's one pattern that I've seen.
我的意思是，确实有很多人最终被淘汰了，因为他们不诚实，或者试图向投资者推销糟糕的交易，诸如此类显而易见的原因，导致他们‘爆雷’或被淘汰。
I mean, that is and my point is there are plenty of people who end up falling by the wayside, you know, because they're dishonest or because they try to they they they they to push a bad deal on the investors or all sorts of things which are obvious reasons for people to, quote, blow up or to fall by the wayside.
但这里我说的是那些真正非常善意的人，他们其实做得很好。
But here I'm talking about people who are really extraordinarily well meaning, and they they are doing a good job.
他们想把事情做好，但只是被一种渴望——在这个案例中，就是筹资的欲望——稍微带偏了方向。
They want to do a good job, but they've just kind of been sidetracked a little by the desire in this case to raise funds, if you like.
还有其他一些偏离方向的情况，比如人们因为渴望出名或被认可而分心。
And, I mean, there are other kind of sidetracks where people people get sidetracked just by the desire to be famous or the desire to be recognized.
这种心态会与筹资的欲望交织在一起，因为如果你被认可了，就更有可能融到资。
And that kind of melds into the desire to raise money because if you recognize, then you're more likely to raise money.
这就是可能发生的一种情况。
So that's one example of what can happen.
我可以告诉你，我记得参加过一次伯克希尔的会议，同时也是在罗恩·康尼夫的会议上，一位股东在2000年代站了起来，直接问：‘你们到底什么时候才买科技股？’
I can tell you that I remember being at a Berkshire meeting, and it was also at Roane Cunniff meeting where a shareholder, and this was in the 2000s, he just kind of stood up and sort of said, When the hell are you going to buy tech?
在2000年代的科技泡沫时期，有很多文章都在谈论沃伦·巴菲特已经‘过时’了。
In the 2000s, that tech bubble, there were plenty of articles talking about Warren Buffett having lost it.
他落伍了。
He's lost it.
他跟不上时代了。
He's behind the times.
身处那种境地并不好受。
And it's not really very pleasant to be in those shoes.
周围有这种氛围也不舒服。
It's not very pleasant to be around that.
沃伦已经学会了如何应对。
Warren's kind of learned how to do it.
从我的ValueX会议中，我意识到这种渗透市场的思维方式——虽然我在ValueX会议上对参会者有所筛选，但这种思维方式同样弥漫在ValueX会议中。
And I would tell you that from my ValueX conference, I've realized that the kind of thinking that permeates the market, I I've kind of accepted that my ValueX conference, I'm selective on who comes, but that kind of thinking permeated the ValueX conference as well.
明年会是什么样子，这些声音是否还会如此响亮，真值得期待。
It's gonna be interesting to see what next year is gonna look like and whether those voices are gonna be as loud.
我记得你告诉我，你周围有这么多人，渗透到你的ValueX或其他环境中，告诉你你应该以百倍营收的价格买入Snowflake之类的股票，或者Roku、Spotify、Netflix这些东西。
I I remember you telling me that there were all of these people in your environment who'd sort of infiltrated your environment to ValueX or elsewhere who were telling you, You should buy things like Snowflake at a 100 times revenues or whatever it was, and Roku and Spotify and Netflix and stuff.
这简直就像他们开始让你觉得，你太笨了，根本理解不了为什么值得付出这么高的价格。
It was almost like you started to feel like they were saying to you, you're too stupid to understand why it's really worth paying up.
我想知道你能否谈谈这一点，因为这很好地说明了当你试图保持理性而世界似乎并不理性时，多年来所承受的那种微妙但极其强烈的腐蚀性压力。
And I wonder if you could talk about that because that's a really good example of the subtle but really intense corrosive pressure that you're under for years when you try to be rational and the world doesn't seem to be rational.
顺便说一下，这些人非常聪明。
And by the way, these people are extremely smart.
我真的很喜欢他们。
I really like them.
他们聪明，是优秀的分析师，绝不是那种门外汉。
And smart, they're good analysts, and they're not, you know, not rubes, if you like.
我认为，在许多情况下，这并不是像2000年代那种所谓的‘空气产品’概念。
And I think that in many of these cases, the it's not that they are you know, in in the 2000s, there was concept of vaporware.
有些公司会筹资，然后花钱宣传他们打算做什么，但实际上根本没有产品。
Companies that would raise money and they would spend money on advertising what they were going to do, but they actually had no product.
在我看来，你所描述的这些公司确实都有产品，运营得非常好，业务也非常出色。
I think that all of the companies that you described really have a product and they're really well run, as best I can tell, and they have very, very good businesses.
只是你不可能无限地支付。
It's just that you can't pay an infinite amount.
在某个时刻，价格真的、真的很重要。
At some point, price really, really does matter.
我只举一个例子。
I'll just give one example.
今年，我们在ValueX大会上听了一场关于Snowflake的演讲，演讲者是我们这里来得最久的人之一，做得非常好。
This year, we had a presentation on Snowflake at our ValueX conference by a guy who's been coming for the longest time, and it was very, very well done.
首先，明确一下，我非常好奇。
First of all, just to be clear, I was very curious.
我想学习。
I wanted to learn.
我了解过Snowflake。
I'd seen Snowflake.
我读过或者试图读过弗兰克·斯洛特曼的那本书。
I'd read or tried to read the book by Frank Slootman.
我其实不太理解。
I didn't really understand.
我有一大堆问题。
I had a whole bunch of questions.
在所有的演讲中，有些演讲相当于我的Weetabix演讲。
Of all the presentations, there were presentations that were the equivalent of my Weetabix presentation.
但今年周五下午，我们有了一次不同的内容，威廉。
But we had something, William, this year on the Friday afternoon.
我们进行了深入探讨。
We did deep dives.
我们投票决定哪些演讲者应该回来做深入讲解。
We kind of just voted which of the presenters do you want to have come back to do a deep dive.
我们对Snowflake进行了深入探讨。
We did a deep dive on Snowflake.
房间里有一半的人和我一样茫然，另一半人则努力耐心地向我们解释。
And half the room was as clueless as I was, and the other half of the room was trying to well, trying to be patient with us, to explain to us.
我的意思是，我来给你提一个关于Snowflake的问题。
I mean, I'll just give you one one question around Snowflake.
Snowflake似乎建立在亚马逊云和谷歌云之上，但它的界面却同样简单易用。
Snowflake seems to sit on top of the Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, and somehow the interface is just as easy.
它似乎削弱了亚马逊、谷歌云及其他云公司的护城河，因为Snowflake面向企业的界面要好得多。
It kind of it seems to have taken away the moat that Amazon and Google Cloud and the other cloud companies have because the Snowflake interface to the business is so much better.
而我仍然没有得到解答的问题是：如果Snowflake能对其他云公司做到这一点，那未来又有什么能阻止别人对Snowflake做同样的事呢？
Then the question that I still have unanswered is if Snowflake can do that to the other cloud companies, what's stopping somebody else coming along in the future and doing that to Snowflake?
而你得到的反应可能是：‘哦，这真可爱。’
And what what you'd get is this kind of like, oh, that's so sweet.
你真的完全不懂，是吧？
You really have no clue, do you?
我的意思是，这很明显。
I mean, it's so obvious.
如果你理解了，你就会明白Snowflake的进入壁垒根本不像其他公司那样。
And if you if you understood, you'd see that it's so obvious that Snowflake's barriers to entry are just not like these other companies.
对我来说，这并不明显。
It's like it's not obvious to me.
对我来说，这仍然不明显。
It's still not obvious to me.
但没错，我努力营造一种环境，那里没有愚蠢的问题，但当时房间里有很多人，当他们提出这样的问题时，觉得自己在问一个愚蠢的问题，那种感觉并不是不耐烦，而是一种……
But, yeah, I try to create an environment where there's no such thing as a stupid question, but there were plenty of people in that room who felt like they were asking that when they asked a question like that, they were asking a stupid question and there was a sense it wasn't impatience, but it was this sort of
像
like
那种眼神，仿佛在说：‘你居然这么无知。’
kind eyes that sort of said, oh, you're that ignorant.
懂吗？
Know?
我学到的是，所以如果我们认为，这实际上是我一个深刻的领悟，威廉。
What I've learned is that so if we think, and this is actually a kind of a profound learning for me, William.
你知道，我一度以为沃伦永远不会接触到那种压力，因为沃伦一直……我想我从那次经历中学到的是，无论环境多么优越，无论你多么精心地围绕自己聚集一群专注于正确事物的人，当市场经历情绪波动时，你不能指望这种波动不会影响到你的核心圈子，无论你的核心圈子构建得多么完善。
You know, I kind of imagine that, oh, Warren's never gonna be exposed to those kinds of pressures because because Warren's been you know, the I think that what I learned from that experience is that every environment, however rarified, however carefully you seek to curate a group of people around you who are you know, who focus on all the right things, When the market's going through one of its mood swings, you cannot expect that not to reach your inner circle, however well constructed your inner circle is.
它最终会影响到每个人。
It'll get to everybody.
你真的需要内在的力量来阻止自己走上那条路，如果你愿意这么说的话。
You really have to have inner resources that stop you from going down that road, if you like.
威廉，我实际上要告诉你，这种目的地分析极其强大。
I actually would tell you, William, that this destination analysis is extraordinarily powerful.
我以前从未意识到这一点。
I never realized it.
我曾经
Which I've
当然，这是从尼克·斯利普那里借鉴的，以示致谢。
stolen from Nick Sleep, of course, to give attribution.
你是在我读完尼克·斯利普的章节后才跟我谈起这个的，但我当时并没有特别关注。
You started talking to me about it after I'd read the Nick Sleep chapter probably and hadn't really focused on it.
这里面涉及博弈论的内容。
There's game theory stuff.
你不喜欢我试着拿出我那点数学知识的时候吗，威廉？
Don't you love it when I try and bring out my potted mathematics, William?
嗯。
Yeah.
每当我听到这个，我的眼睛就放空，开始困惑，这让我想起你之前试图向我解释什么是‘上帝存在以学习’。
This is when my eyes glaze over and I get confused whenever this is this reminds me when you tried to explain to me what a god exists to learn.
我只是，我只是
I just and I'm just
我就是永远不会接受这家伙。
like, I'm never gonna accept this guy.
但你知道，有趣的是，我其实不太懂，呃，我
But, you know, and the the hilarious thing is that I don't really under well, I
我自己也有大约五十万美元。
have about 500,000 myself.
这里重要的是目的地分析。
Destination analysis is what matters here.
为了我们那些不知道的听众们
And just for our for our listeners who don't know
女士们先生们，威廉正在阻止我跑题
Ladies and gentlemen, Williams is stopping me from going off
sidelines。
the side.
我是在阻止你进入博弈论。
I'm stopping you going into game theory.
让我把这句话说完。
Allow me just to say the sentence.
有一些博弈论学者会从游戏的终点开始分析，然后倒推回去，这实际上就是你在做的。
There are game theorists who will talk about this looking at a game from the very end of the game and then working back, which is effectively what you're doing.
你只是在说，终点是什么？
You're just saying, What's the endpoint?
我希望最终达到哪里？
Where do I want to be at the end?
那么，做出这个决定是否将我引向那个终点？
Then does taking this decision put me on a path to that end?
令人惊讶的是，这么多投资的终点都完全不明确。
What's amazing is that so many of these investments have a completely unclear endpoint.
在我看来，你根本不知道它最终会走向何方，但人们在当下却非常热爱它，眼前满是宏大的未来图景。
It's just you have no idea where it ends up, in my humble opinion, but people love it in the moment, and they're just these grandiose futures ahead of them.
我会暂停一下，因为我不确定我是否在跟你讨论的点上，威廉。
I'll I'll pause because I I don't know if I'm on track for you, William.
我只想确保我们的听众明白我们在谈论什么，因为关于目的地分析，我曾采访过尼克·斯利普和凯·西卡里奥，并在我的书中专门用一章详细探讨过这个概念，它对我产生了深远的影响。
And I I just wanna make sure that our listeners know what we're talking about because this idea of destination analysis that I interviewed Nick Sleep and Kay Sicario about and wrote about at great length in the chapter about them in my book is really profoundly important, and I think it's had a huge impact on me.
而且因为我经常跟盖伊讨论这个观点，它也对他产生了巨大影响。
And then because I talked about it a lot to Guy, it's had a big impact on him too.
尼克真正想表达的是，你希望专注于那些拥有长远目标的事物。
And what Nick is really doing is saying, you wanna focus on things in life that have a great long term destination.
所以你要问，这家公司的终点在哪里？是好市多、亚马逊，还是其他公司？在十年、二十年、三十年后，它会走向何方？
So you wanna say, is this company Costco or Amazon or whatever, does it have a great destination in ten, twenty, thirty years?
如果我逆向思考，你是否看到了那些能引领它到达那个终点的投入？
And if I work backwards, is it are you seeing the inputs that are gonna get it to that destination?
那么，它是否善待客户？
And so is it treating its customers well?
它是否在降低成本？
Is it driving down costs?
它是否高效？
Is it efficient?
它是否善待供应商？
Is it treating its suppliers well?
诸如此类的事情。
Things like that.
因此，这最终成为一种极其简单但很有帮助的看待世界的方式，因为你也可以用同样的方式看待自己的人生。
And so this turns out to be an incredibly simple but helpful way to view the world, because you can also view your own life like that.
你可以想，好吧。
You can say, okay.
如果我希望的目标是，当我去世后，家人仍会深情地怀念我，或者我年老时依然身体灵活，能抱起我的孙子孙女和曾孙曾孙女，身体健康，不弯腰驼背，不虚弱，保持独立。
If I want the destination to be my family remembers me fondly when I'm dead, or I am flexible as an old man and can actually lift up my grandkids and great grandkids, I'm healthy, and I'm not bent over, and I'm not weak and independent.
为了达到这种美好而幸运的长期目标，我现在需要投入哪些行动呢？
What are the inputs I need to put in now in order to get to that happy and fortunate long term destination?
这是一个非常简单的过滤器，但实际上却极其重要。
It's a really simple filter, but actually a profoundly important one.
所以我认为，如果你思考那些投资于疫情期间表现狂热、股价飙升的公司的人——比如Zoom、Peloton、Spotify之类的公司——
And so I think if you think about the people who are investing in all of these companies that were kind of racy and were shooting up during the COVID period, for example, the Zooms and the the Pelotons and the Spotifys or whatever.
对你而言，问题的一部分在于，这些公司的未来前景并不那么吸引人，并不是因为它们不是好公司，而是因为它们的价格太高，缺乏安全边际。
Presumably for you, part of the problem was that the destination didn't look that great, not because they weren't great companies, but just because they were so expensive that you didn't have a margin of safety.
我认为，目标必须是清晰、具体且从今天就能理解的东西。
I think, you know, the the destination has to be something that is clear and tangible and understandable from today.
以好市多为例，人们喜欢高品质又便宜的东西。
So I think if we take Costco, people like high quality cheap stuff.
好市多建立了一套系统，采购高品质的廉价商品，然后摆上货架供顾客购买，而顾客也非常喜爱这种模式。
Costco has a system of sourcing high quality cheap stuff that they then put into their stores for people to go and buy and they love it.
这可以说是不言而喻的，一种永恒的必然。
That is kind of a given, an endless given, if you like.
我认为，对我来说，世界一定会走向这样一个目标：人们始终希望拥有位于城镇中心、交通网络和基础设施完善的优质房地产。
I think a destination for me that I think the world will certainly get to is that people always want to have high quality real estate in the center of towns with good transportation networks infrastructure around.
布鲁克菲尔德的布鲁斯·弗拉特只想投资于交通受限的市中心区域，他实际上是在做一种目标分析。
The Brookfield Bruce Flatt, wants to invest only in transportation constrained downtown areas, he's kind of doing a kind of destination analysis.
但当你转向一些新兴的云业务、SaaS业务时，目标是存在的。
But when you got to some of these new cloud businesses, SaaS businesses, the destination was there.
目标确实存在，但具体是什么却非常模糊，除了某种充满无限可能性的辉煌未来之外，难以界定。
It is there, but it's very, very unclear exactly what that destination is other than some kind of fantastic unbridled future with lots of optionality.
当你问：这到底满足了什么基本的人类需求？又将以何种方式为他们带来利润？这一点并不明确。
When you kind of say, yeah, but what basic human need is it meeting and how is it going to meet it in a way that is going to be profitable for them, that's not clear.
这仅仅是无尽的可能性。
It's just endless optionality.
如果我们回溯沃伦对汽车行业的分析，当时有数百家不同的汽车公司，毫无疑问，汽车本身已经出现，并且必将长存。
If we think back to Warren's analysis of the automobile industry with hundreds of different automobile companies, there's no question that the automobile was there and was there to stay.
但当你去看一家具体的公司时，你会问：你们公司有什么独特之处，能让你们成为那个终点、那个最终目标？
But you go to a specific company and say, What is it about you that is going to make you the destination, your business, the endpoint?
对于任何一家具体企业来说，都没有清晰的证据表明它们会成为这样的终点。
There's no clarity on any individual business that that's going to be the case.
我听过一些公司的播客，它们听起来就像是不可思议的软件天才。
A business that I I've listened to podcasts about them, and they sound like they're just unbelievable software whizzers.
有一家公司叫Twilio。
There's this company, Twilio.
他们的创始人发现，确实需要在那些拥有特定操作系统的传统电话系统与庞大的电话网络之间建立一个接口。
They're kind of like the founders figured out that there really needed to be an interface between these legacy phone systems that had a certain kind of operating system, and the telephone network is utterly huge.
但随着软件越来越需要通过这个电话网络拨打电话、发送短信以及进行各种交互，这种需求日益增长。
But that increasingly, software would want to make calls onto that telephone network to send SMS messages, to make phone calls, all sorts of interactions.
如果他们能打造出支持这些功能的工具，就能获得巨大而持续的增长动力。
If they could build the tools that would enable that, that was the source of enormous and endless growth.
据我所知，他们是极其出色的软件专家。
They're phenomenal software guys, as I understand.
这是一个非凡的洞察。
That was a phenomenal insight.
据我了解，Twilio 已经嵌入到这么多地方。
As I understand, Twilio is embedded in so much.
如此多出色的公司都嵌入了 Twilio。
So many amazing companies have Twilio embedded in them.
拥有一个正当的、令人惊叹的业务和巨大的增长机会，那么从基本的人类需求角度来看，它们的目标是什么？它们又如何通过满足这些基本人类需求来赚钱？
With a justified amazing business with incredible growth opportunities, what's the destination in terms of a simple understanding of what basic human needs are they meeting and how will they make money off meeting those basic human needs?
如果喜欢的话，这根本无法看清楚。
It's impossible to see, if you like.
所以，目标并不是是否存在一个终点，而是这个终点是否是我可以存入银行、可靠兑现的东西？
So the destination, it's not so much, is there a destination as, is the destination something that I can bank, that I can put in the bank?
让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的介绍。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗？
You know what sets the best businesses apart?
他们通过利用1:30创新，将复杂性转化为增长。
It's how they leverage one:thirty innovation to turn complexity into growth.
这正是亚马逊广告在AWS人工智能支持下所做的事情。
That's exactly what Amazon Ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.
每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，优化一个价值310亿美元的广告生态系统中的广告表现。
Every day, Amazon Ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.
结果是，广告活动运行速度提升30%，并实现规模化可衡量的业务影响。
The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.
而这正是亚马逊自身推动增长的方式。
And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.
他们的代理式人工智能将营销从资源密集型流程转变为智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，并赋能营销人员专注于创意与战略。
Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.
亚马逊广告证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。
Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.
更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部完善过的同一创新方法论。
And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.
在 aws.com/ai/rstory 查看 Amazon Ads 的故事。
See the Amazon Ads story at aws.comai/rstory.
网址是 aws.com/ai/rstory。
That's aws.com/ai/rstory.
初创公司行动迅速。
Startups move fast.
借助 AI，它们交付速度更快，并更早吸引企业客户。
And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.
但大单带来了更大的安全和合规要求。
But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.
SOC 2 并不总是足够。
A SOC two isn't always enough.
适当的安全措施可以促成或破坏一笔交易。
The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.
但哪位创始人或工程师能抽时间离开公司建设呢？
But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?
Vanta 的人工智能和自动化功能可在数日内轻松为大单做好准备。
Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.
Vanta 持续监控您的合规状态，确保未来的交易不会受阻。
And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.
此外，Vanta 随您一同成长，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。
Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.
随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 知道何时需要什么，并已打造了最快、最便捷的路径，助您达成目标。
With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.
因此，认真的初创公司都会早早通过 Vanta 实现安全合规。
That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.
我们的听众可在 vanta.com/billionaires 获得 1000 美元优惠。
Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.
访问 vanta.com/billionaires，立减 1000 美元。
That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.
新的一年到了，这是最终实现您梦想创业的最好时机。
It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.
就在几年前，我创办了自己的电子商务业务，而Shopify正是我起步所需的完美工具。
Just a couple years ago, I launched my own e commerce business and Shopify was exactly the tool I needed to get started.
尽管许多人不断将梦想推迟到明年，但我在这里要告诉你，现在正是抓住眼前机遇的时候。
While many people continually push off their dreams until the next year, I am here to tell you that now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities right in front of you.
Shopify为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切。
Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.
数百万创业者，包括我自己，都已经从普通人跃升为刚刚起步的创业者。
Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already made this leap from household names to first time business owners just getting started.
你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并自定义它们，同时使用其内置的AI工具撰写产品描述或编辑产品图片。
Choose from hundreds of beautiful templates that you can customize and use their built in AI tools to write product descriptions or edit product photos.
随着你的成长，Shopify也会在每一步与你共同成长。
And as you grow, Shopify grows with you every step of the way.
在2026年，别再等待，立即开始使用Shopify销售吧。
In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.
立即注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就前往shopify.com/wsb开始你的销售之旅。
Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.
前往 shopify.com/wsb。
Go to shopify.com/wsb.
那就是 shopify.com/wsb。
That's shopify.com/wsb.
在新的一年里，让 Shopify 伴你开启新篇章。
Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.
好的。
Alright.
回到节目。
Back to the show.
你以前用过一个词，一个对我特别有帮助的短语，我不确定这是你从别人那里借来的，还是你自己发明的——你提到过寻找占据经济制高点的企业。
You've used language before, a phrase that's been incredibly helpful to me that I don't know if you stole from someone else or you invented it, where you talked about finding businesses that occupy the economic high ground.
对我来说，这似乎是我在过去一年左右才听到你提到的概念，也许几个月前我们为你撰写年度报告时才开始听到。
And that to me this is something I've only really heard you talk about in the last year or so maybe when we were working on your annual report a few months back.
这让我觉得这是一个非常重要的概念，某种程度上，其价值不亚于‘目的地分析’这一寻找经济制高点的理念。
And it strikes me as actually a really important concept, in some ways as useful as the destination analysis idea of trying to find the economic high ground.
这让我们回到之前讨论过的话题：我们生活在一个高度不确定的世界，一切都在变化，任何事情都可能发生，正如你从自己的家庭经历中感受到的，也正如哈萨姆在叙利亚、伊朗等地所提到的那样。
This this goes back to what we were talking about about living in a very uncertain world where everything changes and anything can happen as as you experience from your own family and as Hasam talked about in places like Syria and Iran and the like.
我想知道你能否谈谈那些拥有或占据经济制高点的企业这一理念。
And I wonder if you could talk about this idea of businesses that possess or occupy the economic high ground.
因为当我审视你的投资组合时，我知道你并不常公开谈论你的投资组合，但你无法避免，因为你的13F文件已经公开了。
Because when I look at your portfolio, for example, I know that you're not very public about your portfolio, but you can't help it because of your 13 f's being out there.
所以显然，你曾经持有像伯克希尔、穆迪、法拉利、万事达卡、美国银行、雀巢和美国运通这样的公司。
So obviously you've owned things like Berkshire and Moody's and Ferrari and Mastercard and Bank of America and Nestle and American Express and the like.
这些公司从某种意义上说，似乎都占据了经济制高点。
These are companies that all in some sense seem to occupy the economic high ground.
你能谈谈这究竟意味着什么，以及这些公司有什么共同点吗？
Can you talk about what that means and what these companies have in common?
因为我认为，对于那些真正希望构建稳健、可持续财富、不被短期投机裹挟、而是希望在数十年间稳步抵达终点的人来说，这是一个非常重要的理念。
Because I think this is a really important idea for people who are actually trying to build resilient, sustainable wealth and are not trying to get carried away, but want to get to the finish line over decades.
关于这个理念的由来，我记得在和沃伦与查理的一次对话中，他们或许在回应某个问题时提到：如果你住在奥马哈，拥有最好的办公楼、最好的零售地段，我想他们还提到了最好的加油站和最好的麦当劳特许经营店，那么你就基本稳了。
So just to talk about the providence of the idea for me is that there is somewhere in a conversation with Warren and Charlie there where they agreed perhaps in response to a question that if you take Omaha and you own the best office block, you own the best retail location, I think they talk about the best gas station and the best McDonald's franchise, then you're pretty much set.
你基本上不需要再做任何其他事情了。
You don't need to do anything else for the rest of your life, basically.
这些公司将会表现得极其出色，我逐渐意识到，他们所说的正是经济制高点。
Those things are going to do extraordinarily well, and I kind of realized that what they were talking about was the economic high ground, if you like.
也许这个确切的短语有某种我并不知晓的起源。
Maybe that actual phrase has an origin somewhere that I'm not aware of.
当我想到布鲁斯·弗拉特以及他如何拒绝时，我与一位朋友有过一次对话，他正为一家美国公司大量投资欧洲的公寓楼，他向我解释了柏林与伦敦或纽约在投资上的差异。
When I thought of Bruce Flatt and the way he would turn down, I had this conversation with a friend who was investing vast amounts of money for an American company in apartment blocks in Europe, and she explained to me the differences between Berlin as a city to invest in as opposed to London or New York.
柏林无疑是一个非常适合居住的地方。
Now Berlin is a really wonderful place, I think, to live.
它拥有巨大的空间和良好的交通基础设施。
It's got an enormous amount of space, good transport infrastructure.
它给人一种非常安静、无忧无虑的感觉，但同时也伴随着这座新兴首都特有的生活张力。
It's a very quiet, carefree feeling, but also an intensity of life there that's associated with this this growing capital.
这种张力与芝加哥颇为相似。
It's an intensity which is not dissimilar to Chicago.
但她向我解释说，柏林尤其不是一个好的房地产市场，因为那里的房地产供应不受限制，而她提到像伦敦和纽约这样的地方在基础设施和可达性方面做得更好，因为那里的房地产供应非常有限。
But then she explained to me that Berlin especially was not a good real estate market for her because there was no constrained real estate, and she explained how places like she kind of screwed up in terms of infrastructure and accessibility, London and New York are far better because there's so much constrained real estate.
所以，身处这些地方，一旦你拥有了关键资产，就没人能真正把你取代。
So to be in these places where once you own that key asset, nobody can really displace you.
一旦你拥有了世界贸易中心或伦敦市中心类似的建筑，就没人能真正把你取代。
Once you own the World Trade Center or a similar kind of downtown buildings in the city of London, nobody can really displace you.
你身处所有交通网络的交汇点。
You are there with all of the nexus of transportation.
我用房地产作为比喻。
I'm using the real estate as an analogy.
显然，并非所有企业都是房地产企业。
Obviously, not all businesses are real estate businesses.
如果我考虑市中心地区，就会产生一种累积效应：交通密度高，而且如果你在市中心，你所能雇佣的人才来源可以覆盖整个城市，因为交通能将人们带来。
If I think of downtown areas, there's a cumulative effect of the transportation density, the fact that if you're in the downtown area, your catchment area for people that you employ can come from anywhere around the town because people can get there because transportation brings them in.
更不用说附近餐饮的便利性、餐饮的多样性，以及会计师、律师等服务机构的近距离可及性。
Not to mention the close accessibility of restaurants and the diversity of restaurants and a close the the accountants, lawyers, you name it.
关于这一点，已经有很多文章进行了讨论。
There's there's quite a lot that's been written about this.
所以，拥有资产——再次强调，这个房地产的类比并不是仅仅为了描述房地产本身。
So to own and, again, the real estate analogy, I just again, it's it's not to just describe real estate.
我只是用它作为一个比喻。
I'm just using it as an analogy.
相比之下，你可能会拥有城市边缘闲置的仓库，但那并不是经济上的高地。
By contrast, you could own underused warehouses on the edge of town and that would not be the economic high ground.
一个仓库可能面积大得多，从各种角度看似乎也不错，但如果你想要一个靠近的餐厅，想要一个方便的会计师，想要有一个良好的人才吸引范围，那么位于城市边缘、交通基础设施较差的仓库，就不会是一个理想的办公地点。
A warehouse might have many times more area and might feel good in all sorts of ways, but if you want a closely accessible restaurant, if you want a closely accessible accountant, if you want to be able to have good catchment area from which to get potential employees from, your warehouse on the edge of town with its less good transportation infrastructure is not going to be as an attractive location, for example, to place an office.
所以，那并不是经济上的高地。
So that is not the economic high ground.
在房地产领域，我学到的是，经济高地——也就是A级房地产——在强劲市场中价格会上涨，而在疲软市场中价格下跌幅度较小。
And in real estate, what I learned is that the economic high ground, the the the the A grade real estate, the price goes up in strong markets and the price goes down less in weak markets.
而在城市边缘、非核心房地产中，价格在疲软市场中会迅速下跌，即使在牛市末期，也很可能只是微幅上涨。
Whereas in edges of town, not prime real estate, the price goes down very rapidly in weak markets and maybe if you're very lucky, at the very end of a bull market, it goes up a little bit.
在这两个不同的地点，这种非常简单的资产——房地产——定价差异极大。
The the pricing on that very simple asset, real estate is a very simple asset, is very different when you're in those two different locations.
因此，我对将房地产作为我唯一投资领域并不特别感兴趣。
So I'm not particularly interested in investing in real estate as my sole area of focus.
但如果你将这一点类比到其他类型的企业，我认为在绝大多数零售业务中，情况都非常困难。
But if you take that, now make that analogous to other kinds of businesses, I think that it's very hard for me in the vast majority of retail businesses.
它们并非经济高地。
They are not economic high ground.
如果你有一个时尚概念，那么说明这一点的有趣例子是，我前几天和一个人聊到了Abercrombie & Fitch这个品牌。
You if I have some fashion concept you know, what's fascinating to demonstrate this is that I was having a conversation with somebody the other day about a brand Abercrombie and Fitch.
当我住在纽约时，Abercrombie & Fitch是一个现象级的品牌。
Abercrombie and Fitch, when I lived in New York, was an utter blockbuster brand.
每个人都想要Abercrombie & Fitch。
I everybody wanted Abercrombie and Fitch.
它满足了某一特定人群的需求。
It met a need for a certain demographic.
他们的商店外排起了长队。
There were queues outside their stores.
它是一只表现非常出色的股票。
It was a very good performing, well performing stock.
但它并不是经济高地。
But it's not economic high ground.
最终，你卖的是服装，满足的是消费者对某种风格、某种店铺氛围的感知。
At the end of the day, you're selling apparel and what you're meeting is a perception of what the consumer wants, a certain look, a certain feel in the stores.
因此，这不属于经济高地。
So that would not be economic high ground.
在我的房地产类比中，这就像是位于城市边缘。
My equivalent in the real estate analogy is that would be on the edge of town.
相比之下，如果你拥有铁路网络，那么众多行业都需要接入你的网络，以便将各种货物从A地运送到B地。
By contrast, if you own the railway network, there are the vast multiplicity of industries that want to access your network in order to transport certain kinds of goods from A to B.
随着房地产价格的上涨，随着汽油价格的上涨，你的铁路网络相对优势也会增强。
As the price of real estate goes up, as the price of petrol goes up, your relative advantage in that rail network increases.
你不仅仅依赖于煤炭的运输，例如。
You're not just reliant on the transportation of coal, for example.
并不是所有你想运输的东西都通过铁路网络，但有很多是。
There's not everything that you want to transport by the rail networks, but there's a lot.
它们代表了多样化的行业，因此你在铁路网络中度过困难时期的可能性，远大于像阿凡提和菲奇这样的品牌。
They represent diverse industries, so you're far more likely to see your way through difficult times in the railway network than you are, for example, in Abercrombie and Fitch.
这可以通过特许经营来实现。
That can go within franchises.
显然，有一个麦当劳特许经营店，或者在我访问时代广场时，它实际上是一家公司直营的门店。
Obviously, there's a McDonald's franchise, or it's actually a company owned store at the time I visited it in Times Square.
一家普通的麦当劳门店年营业额在100万到150万美元之间。
The average McDonald's store sells between 1,000,000 and $1,500,000 revenues a year.
这个地方的年收入达到700万美元，在麦当劳整体客流量减少的时期，这家时代广场的麦当劳门店所受到的影响，将小于那些位于城镇边缘、客流量较少的门店。
This place $7,000,000 In a time when there are less visits to McDonald's, this Times Square McDonald's store is going to suffer less than one that is, again, on the edge of town in a less visited location.
我认为你可以将其细化到最根本的属性，但我意识到，市场经常向你展示那些位于城镇边缘、看似便宜的东西。
I think you can define it down to its last attribute, but what I realized is that what the market does is it regularly shows you stuff on the edge of town that appears to be cheap.
我想做的是避开这些事物，等待市中心——用房地产的比喻来说——经济高地出现时，抓住我认为具有良好价值的资产并拥有它。
What I wanted to do was to sidestep those things and wait until something at the center of town, to use the real estate analogy, economic high ground was what I perceived to be good value and own that.
因此，我希望最终——这可以说是一种目标分析或猜测——尽可能在二十年后，拥有一系列非凡的企业，这些企业都位于经济高地，人们会说：天啊，他拥有的是最优质的资产。
So that I want to end up, and this is a kind of destination analysis, guess, I want to end up, if I possibly can, in twenty years' time owning a collection of extraordinary businesses which are economic high ground, where people say, my god, he owns the best assets.
它们就是一些令人惊叹的企业。
They're just like sort of amazing businesses.
我不想拥有Abercrombie & Fitch或Chico's这样的品牌，我想置身于中心位置。
I don't want to own the Abercrombie and Fitch's or the Chico's or I want to be right in the center.
弄清楚这些究竟是什么并不容易。
Kind of figuring out what those are is not easy.
现在，如果你能找到目前还不是经济高地、但未来会转变为经济高地的东西，那将是一种非常非凡的现象。
Now, if you can find something that is not economic high ground right now but turns into it, now that can be really extraordinary phenomenon.
要么是人们对这家企业的认知尚未转变，要么是企业本身转型成了经济高地，这正是沃伦投资铁路网络时所看到的情况。
People, it's either that the perception of the business is not that way or the business itself transforms into economic high ground, which is effectively what happened with railway networks at around the time that Warren invested and he saw it.
比如印度能源交易所，这是你在印度的一大持仓，它是否在某种程度上体现了这种经济高地的理念？
So think about something like Indian Energy Exchange, for example, that which is a big holding of yours in India, would that be something that embodies this in a sense, this idea of economic high ground?
我相信是的。
I believe so.
这是一个会逐渐展开的故事，我会尽我所能帮助它以正确的方式发展。
It's a story that will unfold, and I'm gonna do everything I can to to help it to unfold in the right way.
我认为所有的证券交易所都属于经济高地，但作为一个观察者，我从未真正持有过它们，这真是很大的遗憾；我从观察中了解到，每当某个证券交易所的独家交易垄断权被剥夺时，情况就会发生变化。
I think that probably all stock exchanges are economic high ground, and the issue as an observer, I've never really owned them, which is a great shame, is is what I learned from observing stock exchanges whose monopoly on trading shares was taken away whenever it was.
你可能会想，如果它们作为唯一股票交易平台的垄断地位被取消了，它们还剩下什么？
You sort of thought, well, if their monopoly on being the sole venue where shares are traded is taken away, what do they have left?
事实证明，它们仍然拥有巨大的剩余价值，它们还能在结算、数据、展示市场深度、以高效方式组织市场等方面带来巨大价值，这意味着像洲际交易所、伦敦证券交易所等公司都取得了非凡的成就；当我看到印度正在发展一家能源交易所，它显然将成为组织市场的关键参与者时，我就知道没错。
It turns out that they had an enormous amount left, and there was still an enormous amount of value that they could bring to, in this case, the trading of shares around settlement, data, around showing depth of market, around organizing the marketplace in a way that's efficient for everyone means that companies like Intercontinental Exchange, London Stock Exchange and others So have done extraordinarily when I saw that there was an energy exchange developing in India, which was clearly going to organize the market, be a key player in organizing the market, then yeah.
因此，这可以说是我在印度投资时，当时并未被视作经济高地的一个例子。
So that's kind of an example of certainly not perceived to be the economic high ground at the time that I invested it in India.
顺便说一句，没有保证的结果，但当我放眼未来，认为这极有可能成为经济高地，并将在二三十年后成为印度能源市场正常运转的关键机构时，我就做出了判断。
By the way, no guaranteed outcome, but looking out and saying, This is very, very likely to be the economic high ground, and that it will be an institution in twenty, thirty years' time that is critical to the good functioning of the Indian energy markets.
从现在到那时，还有大量工作要做，但也有大量盈利性的工作可做。
Between now and then, there's an enormous amount of work to do, but an enormous amount of profitable work to do.
所以，是的，这很好地说明了为什么我选择了印度能源交易所，而不是在访问印度时我非常感兴趣并试图了解的另一家公司——一家名为CIRA的马桶制造商。
So, yeah, that would be a great example of why I chose India Energy Exchange rather than, for example, at the time on the visit to India, a company that I really enjoyed looking at and seeking to understand was a company called CIRA, which manufactures toilets.
威廉，这个数字令人震惊：在14亿印度人中，只有大约2亿人家里有厕所。
There's a shocking number, William, in which out of 1,400,000,000 Indians, there's only about 200,000,000 who have a toilet inside the home.
你可以想象卫生洁具的市场潜力有多大。
You can imagine the sale of sanitary ware.
需要建设的东西非常多。
There's an enormous amount that needs to be constructed.
显然，我的问题是，我无法判断Sera是否会成为赢家。
Obviously, my problem was I couldn't tell whether Sera would be the winner.
它极有可能成为赢家，并成为印度卫生洁具的主要供应商，但我无法像看到印度能源交易所成为经济制高点那样，看出CIRA也能成为经济制高点。
There's a very, very high likelihood that it will be the winner and it will be the supplier of a big chunk of sanitary ware in India, but I could not see that as the economic high ground the way I could see could not see my way through to it being the economic high ground the way I could see India Energy Exchange being the economic high ground.
同样地，在信用评级领域，CRISIL是经济制高点。
In that vein, so in credit rating, CRISL is the economic high ground.
我认为CARE评级也有潜力-
I think that CARE rating has the potential-
你以前不是拥有过CRISL吗，盖伊？
Didn't you once own CRISL, Guy?
什么？
Pardon?
你曾经拥有过CRISL？
You once own CRISL?
那是另一个故事了。
That's whole other story.
我这么问有点残忍，因为我记得你曾经说过，我们投资组合中的错误往往（根本看不出来）。
I'm bringing this up slightly cruelly because I remember you once saying the mistakes in our portfolios are often (zero not apparent.
克里斯看到过一个案例，我觉得你当时赚了五倍，然后最近卖掉了——
Chris saw it with something where I think you made about five times your money and then sold it then recently-
赚了五百万倍。
up making 500 times my money.
谢谢你提醒我这件事。
Thank you for reminding me of that.
我只是想让你保持谦逊，没错。
I'm just trying to keep you humble, Yeah.
在Krizl的情况下，经济高地的成本异常高昂。
The economic high ground in Krizl's case is extraordinarily expensive.
也许我甚至不确定Snowflake是否是经济高地，但当你要以如此天价的估值获得经济高地时，你几乎不可能为投资者带来良好或非凡的回报。
Perhaps I don't even know if Snowflake is the economic high ground, but there comes a point at which if you're being offered the economic high ground at such nosebleed valuations, then it's unlikely that you'll make any good or extraordinary return for your investors.
就评级业务而言，我已经下了合适的赌注，如果事后证明成功，我可能会追加投资，但我要说的是，这家公司目前并不是经济高地。
What I've done in the case of care ratings, and it's a I've sized the bet right, and in retrospect, if it's successful, and I may add to the bet, I'm saying that this company is not the economic high ground right now.
他们还有很多工作要做。
They have a lot of wood to chop.
我赌的是他们能够做到，我之所以这样赌，部分原因是我认为这个行业目前的结构如此。
I'm making the bet that they can get there, I'm making the bet that they can get there in part because I think of the way the industry is structured.
他们必须做到。
They have to get there.
我认为印度不会再发放新的评级牌照了。
I don't think any new ratings licenses are being handed out in India.
有人可能会说，现有的评级机构已经太多了，但我同时也赌在未来，至少部分市场参与者会更倾向于本土的本地评级机构。
One could say there are too many ratings agencies out there anyway, but I make it also the bet that there will be, over time, a preference, at least in some of the market participants, for a homegrown local agency.
但目前它们还称不上经济高地，因为在市场份额上，它们与Krizl相比还有很长的路要走；至于品牌认知度和吸引力，它们同样还有很长的路要走。
But it's not yet the economic high ground in that they have a long way to go to be in market share, rival Krizzle, but in terms of perception of the brand and desirability of the brand, they have a long way to go.
这就好比我现在说，它现在是个仓库，但未来可能变成写字楼，因为你看看周围正在兴建的那么多火车站和其他设施。
That is me kind of saying, It's a warehouse today, but it could be an office block because look at all the train stations going up around it and all of those things.
这种仓位管理的理念，实际上是你在数十年间保持韧性的重要部分，对吧？
This idea of position sizing is actually really an important part of what you do to remain resilient over many decades, right?
比如BYD，你很早就买入了，我想大概是2011年左右，至今仍持有相当大的份额，最初仓位是5%左右吧？
With something like BYD, for example, which you bought pretty early, I think probably in about 2011 and still own a good chunk of, that was initially a 5% position, I think.
美光科技也是如此，最初也是5%的仓位。
Something like Micron as well was a 5% position.
略低于5%。
A little under 5%.
我其实错过了，因为我当时有个想法，觉得这是中国公司，我读不懂它们的年报。
I'd missed actually because I was in this mindset that said, Well, it's China and I can't read their annual reports.
是的，我知道李录非常出色，也知道查理说过这些话。
Yeah, I know Li Lu's amazing and I know that Charlie said these things.
我只是说，是的，但我做不到，因为我心里设定了这些荒谬的障碍。
I just said, Yeah, but I can't do it, because I had these kind of I put these ridiculous blocks in my mind.
但当我最终入手时，它的价格已经涨了三倍。
But when I finally got there, it had done a 3X on me.
如果这么说的话，我错过了这三倍的涨幅。
I'd failed to capture that 3X, if you like.
那是一段价格疲软的时期。
It was a period of price weakness.
所以价格已经低迷了一两年。
So the price had been weak for a year or two.
不知怎的，我想办法重新评估了自己处理这件事的方式。
Somehow I found a way to reevaluate the way I was approaching it.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为超我，我们很多人都有非常强大的超我，那个声音在告诉我们该做什么、该想什么，而那些上过某些顶尖大学和中学的人，这种声音尤其发达。
Think that the superego, many of us have a very powerful superego, that voice that's telling us what we ought to be doing and what we ought to be thinking, and it's extraordinarily well developed in those of us who've been to certain kinds of universities and high schools.
超我常常告诉你，仓位应该有一定的规模，如果达不到那个规模，就不该存在。
Often the superego is telling you that the position should be a certain size, and if it's not a certain size, then it shouldn't be there.
我记得类似的感觉，当我们谈论人们投资像Twilio或Snowflake这样的公司时，他们看着我说：‘你这可怜的人啊。’
I can remember the same kind of feeling that we were talking about with people investing in businesses like Twilio or Snowflake looking at me and saying, Oh, you poor soul.
你根本没那个脑子去理解这家公司有多出色。
You just don't have the brain cells to understand how brilliant this company is.
在仓位规模的问题上，也是类似的感觉：‘你这可怜的人啊。’
In the case of position sizing, it was sort of, Oh, you poor soul.
你就是没那个胆量，用西班牙语来说就是。
You just don't have the cojones, is what you would say in Spanish.
你没有足够的胆量去下这些注。
You don't have the big balls to take these bets.
你根本不是这块料，对吧？
You're not really cut out for this, are you?
所以我认为，以一种反直觉的方式，当这些感觉出现时，威廉，我觉得我没有明确的结论。
And so I think that in a counterintuitive way, when those feelings come up, it seems to me, William, I I'm I I don't have a conclusion on this.
我想问问你，基于你接触过的所有人，这种感觉其实很反直觉——他们说，‘你这个可怜的人’。
I'm curious to ask you this with all of your all of the people that you've It's it's counterintuitive, that very feeling that they're saying, oh, you poor soul.
你根本不够格做这件事。
You're really not up to this.
但事实上，你可能恰恰是对的，而市场给你的那种自我怀疑感——无论是对你理解业务的能力、不愿支付高估值，还是不愿下大注——恰恰可能意味着，反直觉地，你正走在正确的道路上。
You might actually be right on to something, and it's that very feeling that the market is giving you of feeling inadequate in one way or another, either in terms of your understanding of the business or that you're not willing to pay a high valuation or that you're not willing to make it an enormous bet, that actually may mean counterintuitively that you're in absolutely the right track.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为投资之所以如此精妙地困难，是因为你试图倾听这些信息，却根本不知道它们意味着什么。
I think one of the things that makes investing so exquisitely difficult is that you're trying to listen to these messages and you don't really know what they mean.
所以，比如，在那段所有人都从那些热门成长股（而我却没有持有）或加密货币中赚大钱的时期，我内心有一部分在想，
So for example, I found during that period where everyone was making so much money off all of these really hot growth stocks, which I didn't own, there's a part of me that or or off crypto.
我是不是个傻瓜？
There's a part of me that's like, am I an idiot?
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