RWH014：与马修·麦克伦南一起探讨《坚韧投资者》

正确的员工能提升团队素质，提高生产力，将你的业务推向新高度。

The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人本身可能就像一份全职工作。

But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.

这就是LinkedIn招聘的用武之地。

That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.

他们的新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

无需再翻阅大量简历，它会根据你的标准筛选申请人，并突出显示最匹配的人选，帮你节省数小时时间，在合适人选出现时快速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是，这些优秀候选人已经都在LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工，至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

一次就招对人。

Hire right the first time.

在 linkedin.com/studybill 免费发布职位，然后推广该职位以使用 LinkedIn Jobs 的全新 AI 助手，更轻松快捷地找到顶尖候选人。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.

免费发布职位，请访问 linkedin.com/studybill。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

想象一下，借助真正理解客户的科技来扩展您的业务。

Imagine scaling your business with technology that understands your customers, literally.

这正是 Alexa 和 AWS AI 背后的故事。

That's the story behind Alexa and AWS AI.

每天，Alexa 在 17 种语言中处理超过 10 亿次互动，同时将客户摩擦降低 40%。

Every day, Alexa processes over 1,000,000,000 interactions across 17 languages, all while reducing customer friction by 40%.

这不仅关乎让生活更便捷，更在于转变客户互动方式并创造新的收入来源。

It's not just about making life easier, it's also about transforming customer engagement and generating new revenue streams.

幕后，AWS AI 驱动着 70 多个专用模型协同工作，打造自然对话，证明企业如何以信心和安全性大规模部署 AI。

Behind the scenes, AWS AI powers more than 70 specialized models working together to create natural conversations, proving how enterprises can deploy AI at scale with confidence and security.

Alexa的AI能力在亚马逊庞大的运营中经过实战检验，实现了大规模的实际可衡量影响。

Alexa's AI capabilities were battle tested across Amazon's massive operations, delivering real measurable impact at scale.

这些相同的创新现在为其他企业提供了经过验证的框架，以提升效率、解锁新的收入来源并获得持久的市场优势。

These same innovations now give other businesses a proven framework to boost efficiency, unlock new revenue streams and gain a lasting market edge.

在aws.com/ai/rstory了解Alexa的故事。

Discover the Alexa story at aws.com/ai/rstory.

那就是aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

你的比特币持有量越多，面临的挑战就越复杂。

The more your Bitcoin holdings grow, the more complex your challenges become.

最初简单的自托管，如今已涉及家庭遗产规划、复杂的安保决策，以及应对单一失误就可能损失数代财富的状况。

What started as a simple self custody now involves family legacy planning, sophisticated security decisions, and navigating situations where a single mistake could cost generations of wealth.

标准服务并未为这些高风险的现实情况而设计。

Standard services weren't built for these high stakes realities.

因此，长期投资者选择Unchained Signature——一项为认真持有比特币的人士提供的高端私人客户服务，提供专业指导、稳健的托管服务和持久的合作关系。

That's why long term investors choose Unchained Signature, a premium private client service for serious Bitcoin holders who want expert guidance, resilient custody, and an enduring partnership.

使用 Signature 服务，您将获得专属客户经理，他们了解您的目标，并在每一步为您提供帮助。

With Signature, you're paired with your own dedicated account manager, someone who understands your goals and helps you every step of the way.

您将享受尊贵的入职服务、当日紧急支持、个性化教育、降低交易费用，以及优先参与独家活动和功能的权限。

You get white glove onboarding, same day emergency support, personalized education, reduced trading fees, and priority access to exclusive events and features.

Unchained 的协作托管模式旨在为那些希望自行保管密钥的用户，提供与全球最大的比特币托管机构同等的安全保障。

Unchained's collaborative custody model is designed to provide the same security posture as the world's biggest Bitcoin custodians, but for those who prefer to hold their own keys.

了解更多关于 Unchained Signature 的信息，请访问 unchained.com/preston。

Learn more about Unchained signature at unchained.com/preston.

结账时使用代码 Preston 10，即可享受首年 10% 折扣。

Use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first year.

比特币不仅关乎一生，更关乎世代传承。

Bitcoin isn't just for life, it's for generations.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

在一个熵增、事物随时间趋向无序的世界里，你如何构建一个真正具有韧性的投资组合？

So in a world of entropy where things tend toward disorder over time, how do you actually build a portfolio filled with businesses that are truly resilient?

这些企业需要具备哪些特质，才更有可能经久不衰？

What what qualities do they need that are likely to make them less perishable?

你之前提到一个有趣的观点，就是关于知道自己要去哪里。

Well, you made an interesting comment before about sort of knowing where you're going.

我记得塞涅卡说过，如果你不知道要驶向哪个港口，那么任何风都不算顺风。

And I I remember Seneca saying, you know, if if you don't know to which port you're sailing, no wind is fail favorable.

对我来说，作为一名投资者，我非常认同韧性财富创造的理念。

And I I think, for me as an investor, I like the idea of resilient wealth creation a lot.

但我意识到，这并不适合每个人。

And I recognize that's not for everybody.

有些人投资的原因不同。

Some people are investing for a different reason.

有些人投资是为了追求短期暴利，而不是长期积累。

Some people are investing because they want to max out rather than grind it out.

有时，根据你对旅程的理解，你会得出截然不同的结论。

And sometimes you'll come to surprisingly different conclusions depending on what your sense of travel is.

因此，如果你的目标是获得巨大超额回报，那么这会促使你更倾向于投资组合集中、偶尔使用杠杆，以及追求控制权，以便影响你所投资的公司。

So if your goal is to get large outsized returns, then it's going to drive you more towards portfolio concentration, the use of leverage episodically, and the desire for control so that you can influence the underlying companies that you're investing in.

许多伟大的财富积累都具备这三个要素。

And many of the great fortunes that have been made have those three elements in place.

另一方面，集中投资、杠杆和控制所需的时间投入，如果熵的规律以意想不到的方式对你不利——比如出现了一种取代你所关注业务的新产品——就会带来毁灭性后果。

On the other hand, the combination of concentration and leverage and the time sink of control devastating if the laws of entropy work against you in an unanticipated way, if there's a new product that disintermediates what you focus on.

你可能买下了自认为是一家优秀的企业，但随后世界发生了变化。

So you might have bought what you thought was a great business, but then the world changes.

如果你的投资高度集中、背负杠杆，且所有时间都投入到控制这家公司上，那么你就陷入了困境。

And if you're concentrated and levered and all of your time is sunk into controlling that business, then you're in a sort of troubled spot.

所以

And so

我的一个朋友提到过一个人，他管理着一只对冲基金，据说最后只持有一只股票。

My friend has a Guy friend who or mentioned someone who had a hedge fund where I think he had one stock in the end.

他如此坚信这一点，却完全错了，现在他在美国的某个地方经营着一家咖啡馆或酒吧。

And he he he so believed in it and was so totally wrong that he now runs a cafe or a bar somewhere in in The US.

所以，是的，关于持久财富创造的理念让我深有共鸣。

And so so, yeah, the the idea of resilient wealth creation resonates really deeply for me.

我电脑屏幕上有一张纸，上面列着我持有的投资，标题上赫然写着‘持久财富创造’。

I I have, like, this sheet on my this this screen on my computer with this low tech list of the investments that I own, and literally the phrase at the top is resilient wealth creation.

因为我试图不断提醒自己，我不需要急于求成。

Because I'm trying to pound into my head the fact that I I don't need to be in a hurry.

这根本不是我的目标。

It's just not the goal.

如果你想到达的那个目的地，正是你航行的目标，那么首先你会更加坦然接受分散投资的理念。

Well, if and if you think of the the difference that place that it can lead you to, if if that's the port to which you're sailing, the first thing is that you become far more at peace with the notion notion of diversification.

我的朋友威廉，你之前介绍我认识了马克·赫尔的汤姆·盖纳，我觉得他对此描述得很好。

Know, mean, William, you introduced me some time ago to Tom Gaynor at Mark Hell, and I think he described it well.

他谈到了‘自发性仓位规模’这个概念，意思是，你每进入一项投资时，都认为它会是一个明智的选择。

He's he he discussed this notion of emergent position sizing, and that is that every investment you go into, you think is gonna be a sound investment.

但未来会以不同的方式展开。

But, the future plays out in different ways.

一些企业是熵的受害者，另一些则偶然受益于有利于它们的替代效应。

Some businesses are the victims of entropy, some transient beneficiaries of substitution going in their favor.

因此，拥有一个多元化的投资组合是我们真正能够坦然接受的，这也是谦逊的体现。

And so having a diversified portfolio is something that we're actually quite at peace with, and it's an expression of humility.

这是一种承认，我们所能知道的终究是有限的。

It's an acknowledgment that there's only so much we can know.

回到关于卡尔·波普尔或沃尔夫勒姆与复杂性的讨论，我越来越确信，一个人所能了解的终究是有限的。

And going back to the discussion on Karl Popper or Wolfram and complexity, I've become convinced that there's only so much one can know.

因此，多元化是一种承认，一种对这一事实的谦逊承认。

And so diversification is an acknowledgment, a humble acknowledgment of of of that fact.

但这也是一种有趣的策略，因为如果你愿意像我们一样进行全球投资，多元化并不意味着你只是被动地反映市场。

But it's also an interesting strategy because if you're willing to invest globally as we are, diversification doesn't mean look that you look like a passive representation of the market.

我们可能只持有5000只证券中的100只。

We might own a 100 securities out of a universe of 5,000.

因此，你仍然可以像之前比喻的那样，有选择地打理这片花园。

And so you can still selectively curate the garden to use the analogy of before.

但要在不同行业和不同国家之间进行，以获得一定程度的韧性。

But to do it across industries and across countries in a way that gives you a degree of resilience.

而且，如果你支付了合理的现金流倍数，并且识别出了你认为的各家企业 incumbency，这有助于形成一种容错性更强的方法。

And to the extent that you've paid decent cash flow multiples and you've identified what you think is incumbency for individual businesses, it helps produce an error tolerant approach.

因为如果初始的自由现金流收益率能够补偿你的资本成本，并且其中一定数量的企业最终表现尚可，那么你就能覆盖那些表现不佳企业的成本。

Because if the starting free cash flow yield compensates you for the cost of capital and and and a certain number of these businesses end end up doing reasonably well, then you're able to cover the costs of those that don't do as well.

除了分散投资之外，我想说的另一件事是，与杠杆相反的是，以延迟购买力的方式前行。

The other thing I'd say other than diversification is that I guess the opposite of leverage is to travel a journey with deferred purchasing power.

因此，如果你看看我们的投资组合，威廉，我们大约有20%的资金配置在现金、黄金和分散的短期外国主权债券中。

And so if you look at our portfolios, William, we have roughly 20% in a combination of cash and gold and diversified short term foreign sovereign bonds.

所以，这可以说是对经济这种非线性系统将经历周期性危机这一事实的承认。

So I guess it's a recognition of the fact that a nonlinear system like the economy is going to have episodic periods of crisis.

而我们所持有的企业，希望都能很好地应对这些危机。

And hopefully, the businesses we own are well positioned to endure those.

但如果我们持有一定的净现金和黄金，就可以在极度困境的环境中将其投入使用，偶尔以非常有利的条件获得企业的所有权。

But if we have some net cash and gold, we can put it to work in very distressed environments and convert it to the ownership of enterprise on very advantageous terms episodically.

我认为，愿意在投资组合中保留一部分资金等待时机，是我们历史上实现韧性的重要因素。

And the willingness to kind of wait with some amount of your portfolio, I think, has been a kind of an important element of how we've generated resilience historically.

最后我想说的是，当你拥有大约一百项投资时，妄想对所有这些投资都施加控制或影响是愚蠢的。

The final thing I'd say is that when you have a portfolio with a 100 or so investments, it would be foolish to think that you could play a control or influence role in all of those investments.

相反，我们实际上建立了一个像所有者一样行事的管理人生态系统。

And and what we've done instead is we've essentially created an ecosystem of managers who act like owners.

因此，关键在于你自我培育的生态系统，而不是你必须亲自掌控。

And so it's more about the ecosystem that you're self curating than you having to have control.

你们投资组合中另一件非常不寻常的事情，也非常契合这种像园丁一样长期精选培育的理念，那就是极低的换手率。

One of the things that's also really unusual about your portfolios that that very much fits with this idea of of long term selective curation like a gardener is there's incredibly low turnover.

我曾研究过你们的一个投资组合。

I I was looking at one of your portfolios.

我认为它的换手率只有7.2%。

I think it's 7.2% turnover.

一个是10%。

One is 10%.

所以我们谈论的是持有股票十年、十二年甚至更长时间。

So we're talking owning stocks for ten, twelve years or more.

你能谈谈这个吗？

Can you talk about that?

因为看起来，其他基金经理管理的许多投资组合虽然高度分散，但往往像是迟钝的投资者，过度分散投资，频繁交易，费用过高。

Because it seems it's it seems like a lot of the portfolios run by other fund managers that are very diversified, they tend to be kind of obtuse investors who are over over diversified and then trade too much and have too high expenses.

而你们的却非常不同。

Yours is very different.

你们的投资组合经过深思熟虑地分散，同时又极具耐心。

It's very thoughtfully diversified and at the same time incredibly patient.

你们买入后就长期持有。

You're buying stuff and then you're holding it.

这在一定程度上反映了我们的投资方式。

Well, part of it's a reflection of the way in which we invest.

因为如果你考虑一个试图每个季度都交易的投资者，从定义上讲，他们的策略会产生大量换手。

Because if you think about an investor who's trying to trade every quarter, by definition, they're gonna have a lot of turnover in their strategy.

或者如果他们寻找的是最热门的新成长故事，而这种故事每年都在变化。

Or if they're looking for the hottest new growth story, that changes every year.

因此，从定义上讲，你必须不断转向任何短期阶段中出现的动量热点。

So by definition, you're gonna have to shift to wherever the pocket of momentum is in any given short term period.

所以，如果你试图交易短期的意外事件，或者试图捕捉短期的动量，这会让你陷入高换手率的境地。

So if if you're trying to trade short term surprise or you're trying to trade shorter term momentum, it leads you into the territory of of being high turnover.

另一方面，如果我们回到关于收藏品的讨论——无论是葡萄酒、艺术品还是企业——如果你识别出了市场 incumbency（在位者），那么一旦你成功识别出一家具有持久生命力的企业，它的状态就不应该迅速改变。

On the flip side, if we go back to our discussion about collectibles, whether it's wine, art, or businesses, if you're identifying incumbency, it shouldn't change that quickly if you've done a solid job identifying a business with staying power.

因此，我们所做的很大一部分工作，就是试图找到那些能够延续到下一代的企业，以有优势的价格买入，并让复利效应自然发挥作用。

And so, you know, a big part of of what we do is is to try and buy find businesses that, you know, are gonna be around for the next generation and buy them at an advantage price and let the arithmetic play out.

通过持有它们十年，复利效应开始主导短期情绪的变化。

And, you know, by holding them for a decade, the arithmetic arithmetic starts to dominate the short term changes in sentiment.

我认为，这在长期投资中是一个非常重要的原则：如果你追求在位者优势并重视复利效应，你就必须给予它合适的时间周期。

And and that's, I think, a a really important, you know, principle when it comes to long term investing that you if if you're gonna go for incumbency and you value arithmetic, you have to give it the right time horizon.

这就像我母亲每年种完花园又把它拆掉一样疯狂。

Rather like it would be crazy for my mother to plant and then sort of tear down the garden every year.

你知道，有些树需要很长时间才能长成。

You know, some trees take a long time to grow.

你过去曾跟我谈过那些平凡却极其持久的企业，以及为什么这种平凡往往比大多数人热衷、追逐、然后抛售、试图换成了更年轻更漂亮模型的热门股票更美。

You've spoken to me in the past about mundane but really persistent businesses and how mundanity is often more beautiful than the kind of hot, sexy stocks that most people are falling in love with and chasing and then dumping and trying to trade in for the younger, prettier model.

你能谈谈你所说的‘平凡的稀缺性’和‘持久性’是什么意思吗？

Can you talk about what you mean by mundane scarcity and and and persistence?

对我来说，平凡的核心魅力或表面上的平凡在于，它很少导致过度行为。

What's interesting to me and the beauty of mundanity at its core or apparent mundanity is that it it rarely leads to excesses.

你知道，如果目标是购买一家优质企业，你赚钱的唯一途径是发现价格与前景之间的某种不对称性。

You know, if the goal is to buy a quality business, the only way you're gonna make money is through some identification of asymmetry between price and prospects.

仅仅购买一家优质企业是不够的，因为如果整个市场都认为它是一家高质量企业，它的价格就会反映低回报。

It's not enough to buy a quality business because if if the whole market views it as a high quality business, it'll be priced for low low returns.

因此，寻找未被定价的优质企业才是关键。

And so it's really the search for unpriced quality that that's critical.

因此，必须有一个质量的引擎，但通常还需要有一个问题。

And so there has to be an engine for quality, but there usually has to be an issue.

而稀缺性正是这种引擎，平凡性往往就是那个问题。

And that's where scarcity is is kind of the engine, and and mundanity is often the issue.

因此，让我稍微更明确地定义一下这种稀缺价值的概念。

And so let me just sort of define this construct of scarcity value a little bit more.

我认为，结合我们之前讨论的背景，如果你购买的是勃艮第最佳地块出产的葡萄酒，或者购买的是仅创作了极少数画作的名家的油画，这种稀缺性的概念是非常直观且容易理解的。

And I think it was sort of obvious in the context of our discussion before if you're buying a wine from the best block of land in Burgundy or you're buying an old master's painting from someone who painted only very few paintings, that concept of scarcity is very intuitive and easy to understand.

在企业选择方面，我认为你必须区分两种形式的稀缺性。

When it comes to business picking, I think you have to disentangle two forms of scarcity.

一种是实物资产的稀缺性，另一种是无形资产的稀缺性。

One is scarcity in the world of real assets, and the other is scarcity in the form of intangible assets.

实物资产的稀缺性，其实也很好理解。

Now real asset scarcity, think, is also pretty easy to understand.

想象一块地理位置极佳的房地产，比如葡萄园。

Imagine a really well located piece of real estate like the vineyard.

它可能是一套位于城市中心的公寓。

It could be an apartment right in the center of the city.

它可能是一套海景公寓，或者，你知道，也可能是城市边缘的一片林地，每年都有选择权，既可以采伐木材，也可以将部分土地用于更高价值的开发。

It could be a beachfront apartment, or, you know, it could be a timber land on the edge of a city where there's optionality to either grow the timber or sell part of that land for higher and better use in any given year.

现实资产领域的稀缺性也可能体现为一家像黄金矿商这样的公司，它拥有位于成本曲线低端的大型矿场。

Scarcity in the world of real assets could also be a company like a gold miner, for example, that owns very large scale mines at the low end of the cost curve.

因此，现实资产领域的稀缺性通常由地理位置驱动。

So scarcity in the world of real assets is usually locationally driven.

另一方面，稀缺性体现在无形资产领域。

On the other hand, scarcity is manifest in the world of intangible assets.

通常，这是那些拥有强大市场份额的公司。

And usually, that's companies that have strong market share positions.

这是最有价值的无形资产形式。

It's the most valuable form of intangible asset.

一家拥有40%、50%、60%市场份额且数十年来保持稳定的公司，是一种稀缺的无形资产，因为这种庞大的市场份额使其能够在整个经济周期中拥有一定的定价权，降低现金流的波动性，提升利润率。

A company that's had 40%, 50%, 60% market share that's been stable for decades is a scarce intangible asset, because that large market share position gives them the ability to have a degree of pricing power through the cycle, reduces the volatility of their cash flows, improves their margins.

但它也赋予了它们规模优势，使其能够在研发、产品开发和销售团队的密度上超越竞争对手，从而延长这一优势的持续时间。

But it also gives them the scale to outspend competitors on r and d, product development, density of their sales force so that they can provide more duration to that advantage.

因此，当我们思考投资领域的稀缺性时，通常是指地理位置优越、具有长期特性的实物资产，或者是在稳定行业中拥有良好市场份额、并持续采取必要措施以确保未来存续的公司。

And so, you know, when we're when we're thinking about scarcity in the world of investing, it's typically a well located physical asset that's of a long duration character, or it's a company that's got a good market share position in a stable industry that's doing the things that it needs to do to perpetuate itself into the future.

这类企业通常以较高的估值进行交易。

Now, those kinds of businesses often trade at at high value.

因此，我们之所以将‘平凡的稀缺性’称为具有吸引力，是因为如果你想以合理的价格买入优质资产，它就不能有太明显的吸引力。

So the reason we sort of refer to mundane scarcity as as attractive is that if you've if you want a shot at buying quality at a reasonable price, it can't have too much obvious allure.

关键在于，对普通投资者而言通常平平无奇的东西，对长期复利者来说却可能极为美好，因为这意味着你可以以合理的现金流倍数入场。

That's the key that what is often mundane to the average investor ends up being beautiful to the long term compounder because it means that you can buy in at a reasonable multiple of cash flows.

你可以长期受益于这种稀缺性。

You can benefit from that scarcity over the long term.

如果这家企业的业务网络攀升至异常高的估值，你可以长期持有，并拥有安全边际。

And if the business network scales the heights to an outsized valuation, you can hold it indefinitely with a margin of safety.

因此，它使你能够做出一次决策，从而获得非常长的平均持有期。

And so it enables you to make a single decision and therefore have a very long average holding period.

我记得在疫情初期，市场暴跌的时候。

I remember during that first period of COVID when the markets were tumbling.

那时我采访过你。

I interviewed you around then.

我想，我记得你说过忍耐，当时餐馆突然在全球范围内关闭，而你却在购买一家日本公司，它为餐馆生产制冰机。

I I think forbearance, if I remember correctly, and you had been buying I guess, the restaurants were closed around the world suddenly, and you were buying a a company, I think, in Japan that made ice machines for restaurants.

所以，你知道，你清楚最终情况会好转，人们终将再次外出就餐。

So it was something where you kind of knew knew that it was eventually gonna be good, that we're gonna go out to restaurants again.

因此，这具有某种平凡的稀缺性，但同时又不受欢迎。

And so it had a kind of mundane scarcity, but at the same time was out of favor.

这是否很好地说明了什么是

Is that is that a pretty good example of what

这确实是个好例子。

That's it's a good example.

我的意思是，你提到的那家公司生产用于商业场所的制冰机，无论是餐馆、医院还是学校。

I mean, the company you're referring to is in ice machines for commercial establishments, whether it's restaurants or hospitals or schools.

冰机制作实际上涉及相当多的精密加工，因为你不希望细菌渗入其中。

There's actually a fair amount of precision processing that goes into an ice machine because you don't want bacteria to creep in there.

它必须可靠。

It needs to be reliable.

在餐厅或任何餐饮设施中，冰机是良好客户体验的核心，你希望它能够可靠运行。

It's at the core of a decent customer experience in a restaurant or any catering facility, and you want it to be reliable.

因此，售后支持网络和销售团队有助于巩固这项业务。

Therefore, the network of aftermarket support and sales force helps embed that business.

他们还以此为基础，逐步扩展到商用冰箱和烤箱领域，建立了强大的市场地位。

And they've, you know, concentrically expanded that business into a strong position in commercial refrigerators and ovens.

因此，那些看似缺乏吸引力的业务，实际上可能长期非常稳定。

And so businesses that you think are lacking in a certain amount of appeal can be quite stable over time.

由于这项业务具有良好的经济效益，你在像新冠疫情这样的时期不必担心它们会倒闭。

And because the business has good economics, you know, you don't have to worry at a time like COVID that they're going to go out of business.

他们的客户可能暂时受困，但客户最终会回来。

Their customers may be suffering for a time, but the the customers will come back.

餐馆一直在变化，但对制冰机的需求却始终不变。

And restaurants change all the time, but the need for ice machines doesn't change.

因此，拥有这样一个细分领域，对于有耐心的投资者来说，确实很有帮助。

And so having a a niche like that can, you know, be quite helpful for the patient investor.

我也曾与第一鹰的一位人士讨论过，他说是的。

I was struck also I was discussing with someone from First Eagle was saying, yeah.

这类公司的良好例子包括一家瑞士的电梯制造商，还有一家日本的自行车零部件公司。

Like, good examples of this are, like, this company in Switzerland that makes elevators, and I think there's a Japanese company that makes bike components.

这些产品非常平凡、不吸引人，却奇怪地至关重要。

It's these are wonderfully unexotic, unsexy, and yet weirdly central kind of necessary things.

你能谈谈其他一些体现这种韧性的企业吗？

Can you talk about a couple of these other businesses that embody that resilience?

谈谈你提到的这两家公司。

Comment on the on the two that you you mentioned.

关于自行车零部件，我们几十年来一直持有信荣公司的股份。

You know, in in the case of the bicycle components, you know, we've owned a stake in a company called Shimano for a couple of decades now.

因此，这确实是我们长期持有的资产。

So it's truly been a long term holding for us.

Shimano 在高端自行车刹车和变速器市场占有超过50%的份额。

And Shimano has over 50% of the market for high end bicycle brakes and gears.

人们更熟悉刹车和变速器的品牌，而不是自行车本身的品牌。

And people know the brand of the brakes and gears more than they know the brand of the bicycle.

我曾经和女儿去一个农贸市场，她在那里发现了一些上世纪七十年代的老漫画。

I went to a a farmer's market with my daughter once, and and she found some old comics that were on sale there from the early seventies.

我记得那些漫画在广告中宣传的是Browning自行车公司，但广告的最大亮点却是Shimano的刹车和变速器。

And it was I think they were advertising the Browning bicycle company, but the big feature of the ad was the Shimano brakes and gears.

因此，这是一家致力于完善单一工艺，并逐个本地市场实现全球分销规模的公司。

And so this is a company that has basically devoted itself to perfecting a single process and getting to global distribution scale one local market at a time.

Shimano的出色之处在于，自行车刹车和变速器是其业务的核心。

And what's great about Shimano is, you know, it's this the bicycle brakes and gears is the key part of the business.

它们在渔具领域也很强大，这是一个极其令人兴奋的市场。

They're also big in fishing tackle, another extraordinarily exciting market.

但自行车刹车和变速器占其业务的80%，而这家公司几十年来一直以个位数的高增长率稳步增长，因为他们不断为自行车刹车和变速器增加价值。

But that the bicycle brakes and gears are 80% of their market, but the business has really, you know, compounded out at at a high single digit clip over decades because they've added more value to the bicycle brakes and gears.

而且，随着人们越来越关注能源问题和健康生活方式，

And, you know, peep people are as they become more energy conscious and whatnot are adopting healthier habits.

骑行无疑是其中之一，而休闲钓鱼装备也不是什么坏事。

And and so bicycling is certainly one of them and recreationally having some fishing tackle is not such a bad thing either.

这家公司逐渐实现了复利增长，同时管理层也一直是称职的守护者。

And this business has compounded out gradually and meanwhile management have been good stewards.

除了市场份额之外，这家企业的第二个重要无形资产是管理层在经营中表现出的主人翁精神。

The second great intangible asset of the business aside from market share is the extent to which management act like owners in their stewardship.

因为管理层的决策会以复利方式改变你的投资体验。

Because management accretion can can change on a compound basis your investing experience.

想象一家通常以10倍现金流估值的企业，其管理团队每十年就会将企业价值重新投资一次。

You think of a typical business trading at 10 times cash flow, the management team is going to reinvest the enterprise value of that business every decade.

因此，管理层的质量是一项关键的无形资产。

So management quality is a key intangible asset.

这家企业由岛野家族经营。

And here, the business is family run, the Shimano family.

他们是大股东，并且以长期视角运营企业。

They're a large shareholder, and they run the business for the long term.

在过去二十年里，他们回购了约40%的股票。

And over the last twenty years, they bought back about 40% of the stock.

他们没有任何债务。

They don't have any debt.

他们拥有净现金。

They have net cash.

因此，就像冰机公司一样，你无需担心财务风险。

So rather like the ice machine company, you don't have to worry about financial contingency.

这是另一个很好的例子。

So that's another good example.

你提到了电梯公司。

And and you mentioned the elevator company.

这是一家瑞士公司，而不是像另外两家那样的日本公司。

This is a Swiss company, not a Japanese company like the the other two.

但我同事可能指的是施耐德公司。

But the company that my colleague was probably referring to there was Schindler.

施耐德是全球第二大电梯和自动扶梯公司，仅次于奥的斯。

And Schindler is the second largest elevator and escalator company in the world behind Otis.

该公司自19世纪末就已存在，因此享有有利的在位优势。

They've been around since the late eighteen hundreds, so they they benefit from favorable incumbency.

尽管电梯和自动扶梯制造商只有少数几家大型企业，但它们往往在特定地理区域更为集中。

And even though there are a handful of large makers of elevators and escalators, they tend to be more concentrated in given geographies.

因此，施耐德在欧洲尤其强势。

So Schindler is particularly strong in Europe.

这个业务的精彩之处在于，你知道，股票——这是我们的一项新投资，因为每个人都担心中国和全球建筑周期的情况，但真正的利润其实并不来自新电梯的安装。

And the beautiful thing about this business is that, you know, the stock stock, you know, this is a newer investment for us because everyone's worried about what's going on in China and the construction cycle globally, but the money is really not made on new elevator installations.

而是来自现有电梯的维护。

It's made on the maintenance of existing elevators.

通常，电梯在安装后需要维护二十年、三十年甚至四十年。

Typically, elevator needs to be maintained for twenty, thirty, forty years after it's installed.

它们的大部分EBIT来自这些非常稳定的长期维护协议。

And the majority of their EBIT comes from these long term maintenance arrangements that are very sticky.

这是一家像另外两家公司一样真正着眼于长期发展的企业。

And this is a company that, like the other two, truly thinks about the long term.

它们不仅拥有这些长期、类似年金的维护协议，而且在过去十年中，将研发支出相对于EBIT翻了一番，以更好地将技术融入电梯中。

Not only do they have these long term annuity like maintenance agreements for their business, but over the last decade, they've doubled their r and d relative to EBIT to focus on embedding technology better in the elevator.

通过运用物联网和传感器，你可以比完全依靠人工更可靠、更低成本地维护已安装的电梯群。

So if you use the Internet of Things and sensors, you can maintain the installed base of elevators much more reliably and cheaply than just doing it all manually.

因此，它们在这一领域走在了前沿，就像我提到的其他公司一样，它们没有任何债务。

And so being ahead of the curve there and like the other companies I mentioned, they have no debt.

它们拥有净现金，而且管理层过去曾愿意回购股票。

They they have net cash, and, you know, management's been willing to buy back stock in the past.

背后有辛德勒家族的支持。

You have the the Schindler family behind us.

施耐德家族和博纳尔家族共同持有该公司近40%的股份。

They own close to 40% of the company, the Schindlers and the Bonnards together.

因此，你拥有这种长期稳健管理的、能持续产生现金流的业务，尽管目前由于所有人关注中国建筑周期，这类业务并不受欢迎。

And so you have this long term stewardship of a sort of a stable cash flow generative business that's out of favor right now because everyone's focused on the construction cycle in China.

无论是制冰机制造商、自行车刹车和齿轮公司，还是拥有长期维护协议的电梯公司，这些企业本质上就像是对全球名义GDP的微小部分收取特许权使用费。

And so whether it's an ice machine maker or a bicycle brakes and gears company or an elevator company with long maintenance agreements, these kinds of businesses essentially like eclectic royalties on small slices of world nominal GDP.

这又回到了我之前关于多元化的观点。

And it comes back to the point before that I made about diversification.

这些家族通过专注取得了成功。

These families have done well concentrating.

但考虑到我们投资的是他人的资金，并且希望长期保障稳健性，如果我们能拥有一个遍布不同行业和世界各地的此类企业组合，无疑会比孤注一掷于单一领域带来更稳健的回报。

But to the extent that we invest other people's money and, you know, we we wanna provide for resilience long term, if we can have a portfolio of these kinds of businesses scattered around different industries and parts of the world, it's it surely provides for a more resilient experience than just betting on one.

你知道吗？

You know?

我不认为电梯业务在可预见的未来会被颠覆，但谁知道呢？

And I I don't see the elevator being disrupted anytime soon, but, you know, who knows?

当你为我的书采访我时，你曾跟我提到过一个美妙的比喻：把全球市场看作一块大理石，然后剔除掉你不想要的部分，也就是任何会带来脆弱性的部分。

You talked to me when we when I was interviewing you for my book, you talked to me about this beautiful image of seeing the global markets as a piece of marble and then chipping away pieces that you don't want, really whatever promotes fragility.

这在我看来是一个非常重要的理念，我很想听听你具体会剔除哪些国家，说‘不，不行’。

And it it seems to me a really important idea, and I I I'd love to get a sense from you of what kind of countries you chip away and say, nope.

那太危险了。

That's too risky.

你会剔除哪些行业？

What kind of sectors you chip away?

然后我们可以讨论一些具体类型的企业，你直接说‘不，这会为投资组合带来太多脆弱性’。

And and then we can talk about specific types of business where you're just like, no, it it would bring too much fragility to the portfolio.

对我们来说，这其实是从底层开始的，我想这么说。

Well, it really starts bottom up for us, I I would say.

首先，我们非常倾向于那些已经展现出某种 incumbency（在位优势）的企业。

So first of all, we do we do have a strong preference for businesses that have already demonstrated some form of incumbency.

正如我们的高级顾问布鲁斯·格林沃尔德所说：某种东西只要已经存在了这么久，就很可能还会继续存在下去。

As Bruce Bruce Greenwald, who's one of our senior advisers said, there's something that's likely to be around as long as it's been around.

这就像物理学中的包络原理。

It's like the envelope principle in physics.

所以，简单来说，我们寻找的是经过时间检验的企业。

And and so, you know, just a simple starting point that, you know, we we we're looking for businesses that are time tested.

我认为这是一个重要的起点。

And, you know, I think this is an important starting point.

第二点是，价格确实很重要。

The second thing is that price does matter.

我的意思是，仅仅找到一个好企业是不够的。

I mean, it's it's not enough to find something good.

你必须找到一个比人们认为的还要好的企业。

You have to find something that's good that's better than people think it is.

因此，最让我们兴奋的情况是，当我们发现一家拥有‘蓝筹’特质但经历了失落十年的企业。

And so, you know, the the the situations that get us most excited are when we find a kind of blue chip business that's had a lost decade.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以，如果有人来找我，说有个很棒的生意，但估值已经处于十年高点，那它就不太可能吸引我。

So it's you know, if someone comes to me with an idea and says, oh, it's a great business, but it's also trading at a decade high valuation, it's less likely to be appealing.

因此，当你思考市场 incumbency 时，它就像质数一样。

And so when you think about incumbency, it's like prime numbers.

如果你看一串数字，其中只有少数是质数。

If you look at a sequence of numbers, only so many of them primes.

而且数学中确实有一个规律，可以告诉你质数出现的频率。

And there's actually a rule in math that can show you the frequency of prime numbers.

但如果你有一组三个、或者五千个数字，其中只有很低的两位数百分比会是质数。

But if you had three or a sequence of three or 5,000 numbers, probably only a low double digit percentage of those numbers will be primes.

我认为商业世界也是如此。

And I think it's the same for business.

所以，通过专注于相当于质数的企业——那些拥有优势市场地位的企业，你已经剔除了80%的市场。

So immediately, by trying to focus on the equivalent of prime numbers or businesses with the advantaged incumbency, you're taking out 80% of the market.

然后，如果你进一步聚焦于那些尚未经历最佳十年的少数企业，就会再剔除至少一半的市场。

And then if you're saying, want to focus on the subset of those that haven't gone through the best decade, there's an engine and an issue, then you're taking out at least another half of the market.

当我们与分析师交流时，还有一些我称之为‘分叉问题’的问题。

And then, you know, when when we speak to the analysts, there are other sort of splitting questions I sort of call them.

我所说的‘分叉问题’是什么意思呢？

And what do I mean by splitting question?

如果我给你一本词典，威廉，让你找一个词，你不会逐字逐页地从头翻到尾。

If I gave you a dictionary, William, and I said, you know, find a word, you wouldn't go through the dictionary sequentially word by word.

如果我告诉你这个词是‘serendipity’（意外发现的好运），你知道它大概在词典的后三分之一部分。

If I told you serendipity was the word, you know it's kind of towards, you know, the the back third of the dictionary.

你会直接翻到那里，然后逐步缩小范围。

You'd flip it open there, and you'd you'd get closer.

你可能只需要翻四到五次就能找到那一页，而不是一页一页地翻800页。

It might take you four or five parsings of the the dictionary to get to the page, not 800 pages being turned sequentially.

我试图对分析师说的是：有哪些关键的分叉问题，能帮我们找到那百分之一最值得投资的机会？

And, you know, what I try to go to the analyst and do is say, like, what are the handful of splitting questions that can can find us the the one in a 100 investment opportunity that makes most sense?

所以，一部分是 incumbency（在位优势），一部分是价格。

So part of it's incumbency, part of it's price.

然后我们还会问一些其他问题。

And then there are some other questions we would ask.

我们会查看我们所谓的现金审计。

We would look at what we call a cash audit.

过去十年里，这家企业是如何生存和发展的？

How has the business lived and breathed over the last decade?

它的资产负债表是否真的以稳健的步伐增长？

Has its balance sheet really grown at a measured clip?

我们能否理解这家企业是如何走到今天的？

Can we understand how the business got to where it's at?

有很多企业我们无法理解，这排除了相当一部分企业。

There's a lot of businesses that you can't, and that takes out part of universe.

而在剩下的企业中，有些是由非常激进的管理团队运营的，他们对企业的股权投入很少，更像银行家或官僚，而不是真正的所有者型管理者。

And then of those remaining businesses, some of them are run by very expeditionary management teams who don't have much of an equity stake in the business and are much more like bankers or bureaucrats than they are like owner managers.

因此，通过自下而上地提出一系列问题，我们基本上否定了90%以上的投资标的。

And and so by asking a handful of questions bottom up, we basically say no to 90 plus percent of the universe.

而且我认为，这是我们看待市场的一种非常重要的方式，那就是提出正确的问题。

And and I think that's a really important, you know, way in which we approach markets is is asking the right splitting questions.

然后偶尔，你会有一些宏观观察，会警惕地审视可能出错的地方。

And and then occasionally, you know, there are some some macro observations where, you know, you cast a wary eye as to what can go wrong.

我认为，结合自下而上的问题筛选和偶尔的自上而下洞察，能帮助你避开麻烦。

And, you know, I I think it's a combination of bottom up splitting questions and the the odd top down insight that that helps steer you away from trouble.

我喜欢这句话。

I love this quote.

你多次提到哲学家卡尔·波普尔，昨晚我又读了你多年前为CFA协会写的一篇文章，其中你引用了波普尔一句精彩的话：爱因斯坦和阿米巴的主要区别在于，爱因斯坦有意识地追求错误消除。

You you've mentioned Karl Popper, the philosopher, a couple of times, and there was an article I was reading again of yours last night that you'd written, I think, for the CFA Society many years ago, where you quoted a wonderful line from Popper where he said, the main difference between Einstein and an amoeba is that Einstein consciously seeks for error elimination.

这似乎正是你方法的核心——不断追求错误消除。

And it seems like that's really central to your approach, constantly constantly seeking for error elimination.

你刚才说的，其实也是在寻找这些企业的缺陷。

What you were just saying, it's like you're you're looking for what's wrong with these businesses as well.

对吧？

Right?

无论是他们的商业模式是否容易被替代，管理层是否在稀释股东利益或资本结构不当，还是你支付了过高的价格。

Whether whether their business model can be substituted easily, whether management is diluting you or has the wrong capital structure or whether you're overpaying.

你能谈谈这种有意识地寻找问题的理念吗？这是一种非常查理·芒格式的生活方式。

Can you talk about this idea of of consciously looking for what's wrong, which is a very Charlie Munger esque kind of approach to life?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们没有任何完美的投资。

I mean, we we don't have any perfect investments.

比如，如果你查看整个投资组合，每当有人问我‘给我你的最佳投资建议’时，我都会感到压力很大，因为我根本没有这样的建议。

Like, if if you were to look throughout portfolio and I always get stressed out when someone asks me the question, give me your best idea because I just don't have one.

我真希望自己足够聪明，或者有足够的信心去这么做，但我们非常关注可能出现的问题。

I wish I was smart enough or had enough conviction to do so, but we're very focused on what can go wrong.

有时候，从侧面观察事物会有帮助。

And sometimes it helps to look at things indirectly.

我不知道你有没有看过一部纪录片。

I don't know if you ever saw there was a a documentary.

这部电影评价褒贬不一，但我认为它很有趣，叫《蒂姆的面纱：维米尔》。

It got mixed reviews, but I thought it was an interesting one called Tim's veneer a Vermeer.

它讲述了一位名叫蒂姆·詹尼森的发明家，试图重现一幅维米尔的画作。

It was about an inventor, Tim Jenison, I think his name was, who was trying to recreate a Vermeer painting.

他有一个有趣的理论，即多年来，人们一直对维米尔如何如此完美地捕捉光影阴影感到困惑。

And he he had an interesting theory, which was that you know, because everyone's been mystified for centuries how Vermeer could so perfectly capture the shading of light.

蒂姆·詹尼森提出一个想法，认为维米尔可能使用了暗箱。

And Tim Jenison had this idea that maybe Vermeer used a camera obscura.

因此，他在作画时，会叠加一个图像，将自己画的边缘与实际图像的色彩调色板进行对比，从而非常精确地还原。

And so he when he was painting, he had a a superimposed image, and he could compare the likeness of the edge of what he was painting to the actual color palette of the image and and do it very closely.

所以他并不是直接绘画，而是通过参照另一幅图像来作画。

So rather than trying to paint the image directly, he looked at it with reference to another image.

我之所以提到这一点，是因为我们长期以来一直持有黄金。

And the reason I go down this discretion is that, we've long been owners of gold.

黄金有些矛盾，因为人们会问：为什么你们要持有这种无用的金属块？

And gold is somewhat paradoxical because people say, well, why do you own this useless lump of metal?

黄金的悖论在于它的实用性和无用性。

And the paradox of gold is its utilities and its uselessness.

如果你看一下元素周期表，黄金就像是最好的地块，因为它在周期表中具有惰性和密度的独特组合。

If you were to look at a periodic table, it is the equivalent of the best block of land because it has this unique combination of inertness and density on the periodic table.

这种惰性在某些方面使它无用，但同时也使它成为一种天然的永续资产。

And the inertness, which makes it useless in some ways, is also what makes it a natural perpetuity.

它不会发生化学反应。

It doesn't chemically react.

这赋予了它持久性。

It's what gives it permanence.

这也赋予了它低贝塔值的特性，因为它不像铜、石油或铁矿石那样主要用于工业周期。

And it's also what gives it its low beta characteristic because it's not primarily used in the industrial cycle like copper or oil or iron ore.

因此，它天然地与商业周期相关性低，且期限长，这使得它成为大自然的对冲资产，可以说。

And so it it has an innately low correlation to the business cycle and a long duration, and that's what's made it, you know, nature's hedge asset, if you will.

我提到黄金的原因是，人们说，黄金没有收益，所以它是无用的。

And the reason I mentioned gold is that people say, well, you know, gold is useless because it it doesn't have a yield.

我刚刚指出，它作为一种对冲工具是有用的。

Well, I just pointed out that it it is useful as a hedge.

尽管它没有收益，但由于供应稀缺，回到 incumbency 和稀缺性这个主题今天很重要。

And even though it doesn't have a yield, because it's in scarce supply, coming back to incumbency and scarcity is a theme today.

世界上人均黄金储量不到一盎司，而自布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来的过去五十年里，货币供应量不断增加，黄金虽然没有提供收益，但其价值却与全球货币供应量同步增长。

There's only there's less than one ounce of it per capita in the world that as the supply of money has gone up over the last fifty years after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement, gold hasn't offered a yield, but it has accreted in line with world money supply.

因此，它带来了回报，而且没有承受贝塔风险。

And so it has offered a return, and it hasn't suffered from beta risk.

它没有承受管理稀释风险，也没有承受熵增风险。

It hasn't suffered from management dilution risk, and it hasn't suffered from entropy.

它仍然存在于元素周期表中，占据着其 incumbency 的位置。

It's still in the periodic table, occupies its position of incumbency.

我之所以详细讨论黄金和蒂姆·韦尔默，是因为用它来思考一个企业相对于一块黄金的表现是有帮助的。

And the reason I go through this whole digression on gold and Tim's Vermeer is that it's useful to think about how a business stacks up relative to a lump of gold.

有趣的是，大多数企业都存在某种衰退风险。

And it's interesting to me that most businesses have some fade risk.

具有代际半衰期。

Have a generational half life.

其次，大多数企业都面临贝塔风险。

Secondly, most businesses have beta risk.

你知道，当你买入它们后，可能会发现自己正处于经济周期的低谷，而那时你可能是第四位卖家，时机最糟。

You know, they there's a risk that, you know, you'll buy them, and then you'll find yourself at the bottom of an economic cycle, and you might be a fourth seller at the worst time.

大多数企业都存在某种代理风险。

And most businesses have some form of agency risk.

你知道，管理层平均而言做出的决策都会稀释价值。

You know, managements on average make decisions that are dilutive.

我认为真正具有增值能力的管理者寥寥无几。

I think there's only a small number of managers that are truly accretive in nature.

因此，企业需要5%的自由现金流收益率是有原因的。

And so there's a reason businesses need 5% free cash flow yields.

这是为了补偿你所面临的衰减风险、贝塔风险和管理层稀释风险。

It's to compensate you for fade risk, beta risk, and management dilution risk.

而且，如果你没有任何这些风险，你就可以直接持有企业，其表现将与名义GDP同步。

And, you know, otherwise, you know, if you had none of those risks, you could just own a business and it would pace with nominal GDP.

但正因为存在 shortfall 风险，所以你需要自由现金流收益率。

But the fact that it has shortfall risk is why you need a free cash flow yield.

因此，我认为将某事物与另一事物的图像进行比较可能是有用的。

And so I I think looking at something relative to the image of something else can be useful.

我还想提一下一篇最终论文，威廉，有一位名叫贝森宾德的教授，他研究了自1926年以来CRSP数据库中的所有股票，发现平均而言，个股的表现实际上落后于国库券，而股票市场的大部分风险溢价其实来自少数几只股票，这凸显了某种程度分散投资的重要性。

And I and there was a a final paper I'll mention on this, William, is that there's a a professor by the name of Bessenbinder who did a study of all stocks in the CRISS database since 1926 and found that the average stock had actually underperformed T bills and that most of the risk premium in the stock market had come from a small number of stocks, thus the importance of some element of diversification.

但讽刺的是，黄金的表现却超过了国库券。

But the irony is that gold has outperformed T belts.

因此，大多数股票——尽管听起来很荒谬——平均而言表现还不如黄金。

And so most stocks, crazy as it would seem, on average, underperform gold.

这是一件难以让人接受的反直觉的事情。

And that's a kind of counterintuitive thing to get your mind around.

但如果你将此视为一种悖论式的真相，它就会迫使你提出一些基本问题：你是否获得了足以补偿单个公司fade风险、beta风险和代理风险的合理回报？

But if you see that as a kind of paradoxical truth, it forces you to ask basic questions about whether you're getting satisfactory factory compensation for the fade risk, the beta risk, and the agency risk of an individual company.

你过去十多年一直持有大量黄金，作为对金融灾难和市场崩盘等风险的潜在对冲。

You've had a pretty significant positioning in gold for over a decade as a potential hedge against financial catastrophe and massive market meltdowns and and the like.

许多人显然一直在推崇比特币，尽管最近呼声稍有减弱，将其视为对金融混乱和人为货币脆弱性的潜在对冲工具。

And a lot of people obviously have, been touting Bitcoin, although a little bit less loudly lately, as a potential hedge against financial chaos and and the vulnerability of man made currencies.

你能谈谈为什么你认为黄金比比特币更适合纳入一个具有韧性或抗风险的投资组合吗？

Can you talk about why you believe gold is a much better thing to own as part of a resilient or weather portfolio than than Bitcoin?

如果我们回到关于老牌大师作品和已有千年历史的葡萄园的讨论，黄金经受住了时间的考验。

Well, if if we go back to the discussion on incumbency at old masters and and and vineyards that have been around for one thousand years, gold has survived the test of time.

它确实存在。

It does exist.

在实物资产中，黄金在元素周期表上拥有独特的 incumbency（在位优势）。

It has a unique incumbency on the periodic table in terms of real assets.

它具有独特的化学特性，并且将一直存在。

It's got unique chemical attributes, and it will exist.

因此，黄金 inherently（本质上）具有比我们所关注的大多数资产更长的存续时间。

So inherently, there's a duration to gold that is longer than most things that we would look at.

我想说的第二点是，黄金今天不是法定货币，但它是一种永久的看涨期权，代表成为货币的可能性。

The second thing I would say is that gold is not legal tender today, but it's a perpetual call option on being money.

因此，当人造货币的质量处于最弱时，你预期黄金的价值会达到最高。

And as such, you'd expect it to be at its most valuable when the quality of human made money is at its weakest.

自20世纪70年代初布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来，我们看到的是，尽管美国国债以5%的复合增长率增长，美国货币供应量却增长了6%，而黄金的复合增长率约为8%。

And what we've seen since the Bretton Woods agreement broke down in the early seventies is that while t bills have compounded out at 5%, money supply in The US has grown at 6%, and gold has compounded out at around 8%.

因此，尽管黄金由于供应稀缺而不产生收益，但它却跟上了货币供应量的增长步伐。

So what's happened is that even though it doesn't offer a yield because it's in scarce supply, it's it's met the rising tide of money supply.

事实上，它还略有增值，因为作为替代品的人造货币质量在下降。

And it's in fact accreted a little bit because the quality of human made money, the alternative, has gone down.

我们目前面临更大的中期财政赤字和更低的中期实际利率。

We have larger mid cycle fiscal deficits and lower mid cycle real interest rates.

因此，从长远来看，黄金在我们的投资组合中发挥了强大的对冲作用。

And so gold, from a very long term standpoint, has served a powerful hedge role in our portfolios.

问题是，黄金是否在比特币面前遇到了对手？

And the question is, you know, has has gold met its match in Bitcoin?

黄金和其他一切事物一样，也会受到不同形式的替代吗？

Is gold, like everything else, subject to a different form of substitution?

它在元素周期表中可能占据主导地位，但有没有什么新发明让它变得无用？

It may be dominant in the context of the periodic table, but is there this new invention that that that renders it useless?

好吧，简单的答案是我们不知道。

Well well, the simple answer is we we don't know.

我要说的是，比特币已经存在13年了，就像黄金一样，我认为它值得认真对待，因为它是世界上最大的计算网络。

What I will say is that Bitcoin is 13 years old, like gold that exists, and I think it should be taken seriously because it is the largest, compute network in the world.

它的规模甚至远远超过了谷歌的服务器网络，数量级上占据绝对优势。

It it dominates, even the scale of the Google server network, by order of magnitude.

所以比特币是一个有趣的人造产物，但它似乎具有一种某种涌现的现实性，如果你愿意这么说的话。

And so Bitcoin is an interesting you know, it's a man made creation, but it's kind of had some sort of emergent reality to it, if you will.

围绕它已经形成了一个充满活力的生态系统。

And there's a vibrant ecosystem that's formed around it.

它的在位优势具有价值。

And its incumbency is valuable.

它作为第一个出现的加密货币，并且从第二层角度来看吸引了最大的市值和最强的计算能力，这使得它比任何其他竞争性加密货币都更安全。

The fact that it was first, and the fact that it has attracted the most market cap and the greatest compute power from a second order standpoint makes it more secure than any competing cryptocurrency.

因此，率先问世至关重要。

So being first matters.

彼得·蒂尔有一个非常精彩的表达。

And Peter Thiel has this great expression.

他说，商业中的每一个时刻都只发生一次。

He said, every moment in business happens only once.

因此，它作为第一个出现且已达到规模的事实，意味着它是最安全的分布式区块链。

And so the fact that it was first and is at scale means that it is the most secure distributed blockchain.

你实际上购买的，是作为数字资产服务的所有权。

Really what you're buying is titled to that digital asset as a service.

因此，我认为我们必须认真对待它。

And so I think one has to take it seriously.

话虽如此，即使从长期来看它有可能变得像黄金一样重要，但目前它以低于黄金的价格交易，我认为是合理的。

Having said that, even if it's on a path to being as important as gold long term, Right now, I think it's rational that it trades at a discount to gold.

你知道，它还很年轻。

You know, it's it's young.

它才13年历史。

It's only 13 years old.

它并没有存在几千年。

It hasn't been around for thousands of years.

所以我说，它存在并不意味着它一定会持续存在。

So I'd say the fact that it exists doesn't mean it will definitely exist.

但它仍是加密领域最有希望存活下来的领先竞争者。

It but it's the leading contender to potentially exist in in the crypto space.

因此，你知道，如果黄金是一种永续的货币选择权，那么比特币就是一种选择权的选择权。

And so, you know, Bitcoin if gold is a is a perpetual option on being money, Bitcoin is an option on an option.

对吧？

Right?

它是成为数字黄金的选择权。

It's an option on being digital gold.

对吧？

Right?

但目前，由于其采用尚处于早期阶段，它的交易方式不像黄金。

But right now, because of the early stage of its adoption, it doesn't trade like gold.

你知道，黄金与实际利率有很强的负相关性。

You know, gold has a very tight inverse correlation with real interest rates.

你知道，当股市经历低迷的十年时，黄金往往迎来表现最好的十年。

You know, when stocks have had lost decades, gold has tended to have its best decade.

因此，它作为潜在对冲资产已有明确的表现记录。

So it has a demonstrated track record as a potential hedge asset.

比特币由于较年轻且处于采用阶段，其交易特征更像成长型股票。

Bitcoin, because it's younger and it's been in an adoptive phase, has traded much more like a growth equity.

如果比特币成功实现其目标，其交易特性将随着时间推移变得更为平稳，更像黄金。

Now, if it succeeds in its destination, its trading character should become far more mundane over time and much more like gold.

但目前它的交易方式仍像成长型股票。

But right now it trades like a growth equity.

因此，它面临未知风险，比如我们之前讨论过的代理风险——矿工群体必须持续存在，否则比特币就无法存在，不能让某个矿池控制超过51%的算力。

So the fact that it faces unknown risks, you know, agency risks, as we discussed before, like the miner community has to continue to exist, or it cannot be dominated by a pool of over 51% of miners for Bitcoin to exist.

它必须应对未知的挑战，比如某个国家可能在比特币的ASIC芯片中植入恶意软件。

The fact that it has to survive unknown challenges, there may be a state that plants malware in in in the ASIC chip for Bitcoin.

我们真的不知道。

We just don't know.

它必须经受量子计算的考验，而量子计算将改变比特币底层哈希协议的有效性。

It has to survive what is gonna be the test of quantum computing, which is gonna change the efficacy of the underlying hash protocols for Bitcoin.

因此，比特币必须面对一系列不同的挑战，我们只能静待时间给出答案。

So there are a range of different challenges that Bitcoin has to endure, and we're just gonna have to let time play out.

但在它真正实现之前，它的市值应该低于黄金的总市值。

But until until it does, it's it should trade at a discount to the aggregate market cap of gold.

话虽如此，两件事完全可以同时存在。

You know, having said that, two things can can coexist at once.

烤箱和微波炉可以共存，你知道，在工业革命之前，大部分财富都以实物资产形式储存，比如土地、艺术品、贵金属和牲畜。

Ovens and microwaves coexist, you know, when most wealth before the industrial revolution was stored in real assets, land, art, precious metals, livestock.

然后我们创造了所有这些金融资产，它们本质上是当时的一种加密货币。

And then we we created all these financial assets, which were essentially the the crypto of the time.

它们是虚拟债权。

They were virtual claims.

你知道，最初的公司是对底层资产的信托受益权。

You know, the original companies were beneficial claims of trusts on underlying assets.

因此，当时这显得非常晦涩和抽象。

And so this was kind of arcane and abstract at the time.

但金融资产开始与实物资产并存。

But financial assets came to coexist alongside real assets.

它们并没有彻底颠覆，而是共存了。

They didn't disrupt totally, they coexisted.

如果数字资产是围绕金融资产和实物资产的另一个同心圆，这并不意味着实物资产会消失，也不意味着所有金融资产都会消失。

And if digital assets are another concentric circle around financial assets and real assets, it doesn't mean that real assets will disappear, and it doesn't mean that all financial assets will disappear.

我认为我们将看到的是新兴的共存局面。

I think what we're gonna see is the emerging coexistence.

我认为比特币可能增加了对私人货币的需求。

And I think what Bitcoin might have done is increase the demand for private money.

我认为，在新冠疫情之后，随着通货膨胀、实际利率低迷和巨额财政赤字，人们开始质疑货币体系的质量。

I think people have questioned the quality of the monetary architecture after COVID with inflation, with low real interest rates, with big fiscal deficits.

如果比特币面临任何这些生存性挑战，投资于比特币的资金可能会转向其他形式的私人货币，比如黄金。

And if Bitcoin were to face any of these existential challenges, money that's invested there could look for other forms of private money such as gold.

因此，如果我只是一个比特币持有者，我会想拥有一些黄金，作为对比特币存在风险的对冲。

And so if I were just a Bitcoin holder, I'd wanna own some gold as a potential hedge, Bitcoin's existence.

但我也能理解，如果你持有大量黄金，为什么你可能会想拥有一小部分比特币，作为对冲——以防比特币真的成功，并削弱黄金的部分货币市值。

But I could also understand if you held a lot of gold, why you might wanna own a small amount of Bitcoin as insurance against it actually working and taking away some of the monetary market cap of gold.

最后我想说的是，黄金将永远具有一些价值。

Final thing I'll say is that gold will always have some value.

它的基础价值来自于珠宝和作为永恒物品的属性，而如果比特币不能作为货币媒介发挥作用，它就不会拥有这种属性。

It's base layer value for for jewelry and as a perpetual item of a dominant, which which Bitcoin won't have if it doesn't have value as a monetary medium.

特雷，让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的信息。

Trey Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗？

You know what sets the best businesses apart?

正是他们如何利用创新将复杂性转化为增长。

It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.

亚马逊广告正是这样做的，其背后依托的是AWS人工智能。

That's exactly what Amazon Ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.

每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，优化着一个310亿规模的广告生态系统中的广告表现。

Every day, Amazon Ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a 31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.

其结果是，广告活动运行速度提升30%，并实现大规模的可衡量业务影响。

The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.

而这正是亚马逊自身实现增长的方式。

And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.

他们的智能AI将营销从一个资源密集型流程转变为一个智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，并让营销人员专注于创意与战略。

Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.

亚马逊广告正在证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。

Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.

更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部完善的同一套创新方法论。

And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.

前往 aws.com/ai/rstory 了解亚马逊广告的故事。

See the Amazon Ads story at aws.comai/rstory.

网址是 aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

初创公司行动迅速。

Startups move fast.

借助人工智能，它们交付速度更快，也更早吸引到企业客户。

And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.

但大单带来了更大规模的安全与合规要求。

But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.

仅靠 SOC 2 是不够的。

A SOC two isn't always enough.

适当的安全措施可以促成交易，也可能导致交易失败。

The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但哪位创始人或工程师能抽得出时间来离开公司建设呢？

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?

Vanta 的人工智能和自动化功能让企业在几天内就能准备好拿下大单。

Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.

Vanta 持续监控您的合规状态，确保未来的交易不会被阻拦。

And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.

此外，Vanta 会随着您的业务一同成长，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。

Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.

随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 知道何时需要什么，并已打造了最快、最简便的路径帮助您达成目标。

With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

因此，认真的初创公司会早早通过 Vanta 实现合规。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.

我们的听众可在 vanta.com/billionaires 获得 1000 美元优惠。

Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.

访问 vanta.com/billionaires，立减 1000 美元。

That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.

新的一年到了，这是实现你一直梦想的事业的最佳时机。

It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.

就在几年前，我启动了自己的电子商务业务，而Shopify正是我起步所需的工具。

Just a couple years ago, I launched my own e commerce business and Shopify was exactly the tool I needed to get started.

虽然许多人不断推迟梦想，等到明年再行动，但我在这里告诉你，现在就是抓住眼前机遇的时候。

While many people continually push off their dreams until the next year, I am here to tell you that now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities right in front of you.

Shopify为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数百万创业者，包括我自己，都已经从普通家庭用户转变为刚刚起步的创业者。

Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already made this leap from household names to first time business owners just getting started.

你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并自定义它们，同时使用其内置的AI工具撰写产品描述或编辑产品图片。

Choose from hundreds of beautiful templates that you can customize and use their built in AI tools to write product descriptions or edit product photos.

随着你的成长，Shopify也会在每一步与你共同成长。

And as you grow, Shopify grows with you every step of the way.

在2026年，别再等待，立即用Shopify开始销售吧。

In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.

立即注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就开始在shopify.com/wsb上销售。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

就是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

今年，让Shopify陪伴你开启你的第一声成功。

Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我的感觉是，你觉得美元可能正处于一个关键的转折点，面临失去其世界储备货币地位的风险。

My sense is that you feel like the US dollar may be at some kind of major turning point where it's at risk of losing its status as the world's reserve currency.

我想请你谈谈这一点，因为正如你刚才提到的，经济中存在着诸多裂缝。

And I wonder if you could talk about that a bit because, obviously, as you've just mentioned, there are all of these these kind of fault lines in the economy.

我们很难判断什么是暂时的，什么是永久的。

And it's very hard for us to judge what's temporary and what's permanent.

许多人将美元视为避风港，寻求其安全性。

Lots of people have been seeking safety in the dollar as this kind of safe haven.

因此，尽管存在如此多鲁莽的财政和货币政策，美元却显得异常强劲。

And so weirdly, despite all of the reckless fiscal behavior and monetary behavior, the dollar seems to be an amazingly strong.

你能为我们剖析一下吗？解释一下你为什么长期担心美元？

Can you unpack this a little for us and and explain why you're worried about the US dollar long term?

让我先说，我从小在巴布亚新几内亚和澳大利亚长大，能在美国生活和工作，我深感感激。

Let me start out by saying that, having grown up in Papua New Guinea and Australia, I'm enormously grateful to be able to live and work in America.

这简直是一个多元融合的大熔炉，汇集了各种思想、市场和财产权。

I mean, it's it is the ultimate sort of pluralistic melting pot of different ideas and markets and and property rights.

我毫不怀疑，美国在未来几十年仍将是一个重要的经济体。

And I think there's no question in my mind that The US is gonna be an important economy for for decades to come.

我想成为这一叙事的一部分，也希望我的孩子和他们的孩子能继续参与其中。

And and, you know, I want to be part of this, and I want my children and their children to be part of this this narrative.

话虽如此，有时良好的经济和良好的货币之间存在差异。

Having said that, there are windows of time where there's a difference between a good economy and good currency.

我们面临的一个挑战是，所有使美国具有内在韧性的特征，如今可能已被充分定价。

And one of the challenges we face is that all of the characteristics have made up for the inherent resilience of The United States may be pretty fully priced right now.

当我们观察全球股票市场时，美国股票占全球股票指数的近70%，但美国人口仅占全球的5%。

When we look at the world of equity markets, US equities are nearly 70% of the world equity index, but with 5% of the world's population.

因此，在某个时刻，美国股票的相对优势理应得到认可，但它们是否被过度认可了呢？这是一个根本性问题。

So at some point, the relative merits of US equities ought to be recognized, but are they being over recognized as a fundamental question?

美国市场的估值相对于世界其他地区处于溢价水平。

The market trades at a premium to the rest of the world.

这里的利润率结构高于世界其他地区， arguably受益于最宽松的政策。

Margin structures have been higher than the rest of the world here, arguably benefiting from the easiest policy.

因此，当你回到投资时，这就像是去赛马场。

And so when you come back to investing, it's it's like going to the the the races.

你知道，你押注的不一定是最好的马。

You know, you're not betting on the best horse necessarily.

它是那匹比其他人认为的还要优秀的马。

It's it's the horse that's better than the other people think it is.

如果你看一下股票市场，人们认为美国是最好的，这种看法在估值中得到了充分体现。

And if you look at the world of equities, people think The US is the best, and and they're really reflecting that in in valuations.

但这不仅仅是股票的问题。

But it's not just equities.

这还涉及货币。

It's the currency.

美元占全球货币储备的近60%。

The US dollar makes up nearly 60% of world's currency reserves.

从长期来看，这并不是一种可持续的均衡状态。

That's just not a sustainable equilibrium long term.

美元一直是避险时的首选货币，尤其是在最近这场危机中，因为我们相对于欧洲或亚洲部分地区实现了能源独立。

The dollar has been the sort of risk off currency of choice, particularly in in in in this last crisis because our energy independence is manifest relative to, say, Europe or parts of Asia.

但这意味着，以实际汇率计算，美元兑关键货币对——无论是欧元、英镑、日元还是人民币——都达到了世代高点。

But what that means is in real terms, the dollar's pretty much at a generational high versus key currency crosses, whether it's euro or sterling or the yen or Chinese currency.

因此，美元提供的价值有限。

So the the US dollar doesn't offer much value.

它已经充分纳入了国际货币当局的储备组合中。

It's already fully stocked in the reserve mix of, you know, instant you know, international monetary authorities.

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，出现了一种风险，那就是我们制裁了俄罗斯获取其美元储备的能力。

And there was a risk that unfolded in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and and that is that we sanctioned the ability of the Russians to access their dollar reserves.

所以，如果我是今天的中国，考虑到他们可能实施制裁，我还有多大动力去积累美元储备呢？

So if I'm China today, am I as incentivized to accumulate dollar reserves as I was before if they were sanctioning?

你知道，中国可能更倾向于购买黄金这样的实物资产。

You know, perhaps the Chinese might be more inclined to buy a real asset like gold.

其次，尽管美国拥有诸多优势，但其贸易赤字超过GDP的4%，而且还在扩大。

Secondly, The US, for all of its advantages, runs a trade deficit in excess of 4% to GDP, which is expanding.

所有主要货币对，如欧元区、日本、中国，都拥有经常账户盈余。

All of the major currency crosses, the Eurozone, Japan, China, and current account surplus.

随着时间推移，贸易赤字庞大的货币往往处于贬值趋势，而非升值趋势。

Over time, currencies with large trade deficits tend to be on a depreciating trajectory, not an appreciating trajectory.

因此你可能会问，如果一种货币在实际购买力上昂贵且存在贸易赤字，为何它仍然强劲？

And so you might ask, well, if the currency is expensive in real terms and has a trade deficit, why has it been strong?

我认为，短期内除了风险偏好上升之外，美国还向世界其他地区提供了利率套利优势。

And I think what explains that in the short term other than, risk perception going up is that The US has offered some interest rate carry to some of these other regions of the world.

但重要的是要注意，美国的工资增长远高于其他大多数地区。

But what's important to note is that we have far higher wage growth The United States than we do in most of those other areas.

因此，从实际角度来看，利率套利并不那么有吸引力。

And so in real terms, the interest rate carry is not that attractive.

所以，我心中有一个根本性的问题：在未来五到十年，美元的均衡价值会如何？

And so, you know, I have a fundamental question in my mind, over the next five to ten years, about the equilibrium value of the dollar.

我认为，如果你不提供实际利率优势，你的中期财政赤字高于大多数贸易伙伴，你的经常账户赤字庞大且持续扩大，而他们的账户却是盈余，同时你的货币估值已经偏高，且美元在储备货币组合中占比已达60%，那么从审慎的角度出发，我们理应开放地考虑美元的相对价值在未来可能下调。

I think if you're not offering real rate carry, if your mid cycle fiscal deficits are larger than most of your trading partners, if your current account deficit is large and growing while theirs is in surplus and the currency is expensive and you're already 60% of the reserve mix, one should be open minded just from a position of prudence that the relative rating of the dollar may adjust downwards over time.

而且，我认为这与人们对美国政治格局演变可能产生的担忧无关。

And and, you know, I think this is, irrespective of concerns that people might have about the evolving political equilibrium in The United States.

但某种程度上，这只是一个显而易见的陈述：美元曾占据主导地位，但其相对价格可能已过度反映这一地位。

But I think it's just a an obvious statement in some ways that the dollar has been preeminent, but it may be more than adequately reflected in relative prices.

鉴于您负责管理这个全球价值团队，您对世界有着如此宏观的视角。

You have such a global perspective on the world given your role in managing this global value team.

因此，您不仅投资美国，也投资许多其他地方。

So you invest in The US, but also in many other places.

当您走遍全球时，我知道您最近去了东京和首尔。

When you go around the world, I know you went recently to Tokyo and to Seoul.

当您观察其他市场时，估值情况如何？

When you look in other markets, what are the valuations like?

机会如何？

What are the opportunities like?

风险如何？

What are the risks like?

如果您是一位理性、长期、谨慎的投资者，希望为未来十年做好布局，而不是追逐那些热门的主题增长板块，而是着眼于获得良好的估值和风险回报比，

And if you're a a sensible long term prudent investor who wants to position yourself well for the next ten years, not chasing these hot pockets of thematic growth, but just positioning yourself to get the good valuations, good risk reward.

您希望将资金配置在哪里？

Where do you want to be?

您希望在哪里投资，以确保至少部分投资组合得到合理配置？

Where do you want to be making sure that you're investing at least part of your portfolio?

我认为，从多个角度考虑多元化是明智的。

Well, I think it's prudent to consider diversification from a couple of different angles.

我们刚刚谈到了汇率。

We just talked about currencies.

如果美元处于世代高点，即便不考虑其他因素，利用当前外国市场的不确定性窗口，在国际上播种一些投资机会是有道理的，因为我们无法确定二三十年后哪种货币会占据主导地位。

If the dollar's at a generational high, knowing nothing else, it makes some sense to use this window of uncertainty in foreign markets to plant some seeds internationally just because one doesn't know for sure what's gonna be the dominant currency in twenty or thirty years' time.

很可能还是美国，但也可能不是，原因可能超出了我们目前的想象。

Odds are it could be The United States, but it may not be for one reason or another that we can't even imagine right now.

当一种货币处于高位时，正是考察海外市场的不错时机。

And and a time where the currency is expensive is a decent time to be looking overseas.

其次，我提到美国股票总体上交易在溢价水平。

Secondly, I mentioned that US equities in general terms were trading at a premium.

标普500的市盈率约为过去十二个月收益的20倍，而EFA指数中的股票市盈率则在12到13倍左右。

The S and P trades at just under 20 times the trailing twelve months of earnings, whereas the stocks in the EFA are more in the 12 to 13 range.

这个估值差异相当大。

Now that's a pretty big valuation differential.

如果你反过来把它们看作收益率，8%的收益率与5%的收益率之间差距很大。

If you invert those and think about them as yields, an 8% yield versus a 5% yield is a big spread.

美国必须比世界其他地区表现好得多，才能弥补这个估值差异。

The US has to really do a lot better than the rest of the world to make up for that valuation differential.

因此，不仅美元被高估了，而且你在美國获得的盈利收益率也远低于国际市场。

And so not only is the currency multiply expensive, but that you're you're getting a much lower earnings yield in The United States than you are getting internationally.

而且，我知道美国市场非常出色，我认为这是一个很棒的市场，我也很感激自己能成为其中一员，但它并不存在对优质企业的垄断。

And, you know, I I would just make the the the third point that as great a market as The United States is, and I think it's a it's a wonderful market and and one that I'm personally grateful to be a part of, It doesn't have a monopoly on good businesses.

如果你想想我们之前讨论过的那些企业，比如威廉提到的那些，它们都位于美国之外。

Now if you think about the businesses that we were kicking around before William, they're all outside The United States.

在某些行业中，领军企业和现有企业都在美国之外。

There are certain industries where the leaders, incumbents outside The United States.

这没什么问题。

And and that's okay.

你知道吗？

You know?

美国有一些伟大的艺术家，但一些最伟大的艺术作品来自意大利。

There's some great artists in The United States, but some of the greatest art came from Italy.

美国西海岸有一些很棒的葡萄酒，但勃艮第的葡萄酒也很不错。

There's some great wine on the West Coast of of The United States, but Burgundy has some pretty nice wine too.

所以，就像任何事情一样，当你寻找行业龙头、独特性和品质的形而上学时，世界各地都会存在品质的不同体现。

And so like anything, where you're looking for incumbency and uniqueness and the metaphysics of quality as it were, there are gonna be manifestations of quality that exist in different parts of the world.

举个例子，如果你是埃克森公司，在美国钻探可能很有吸引力，但世界上其他地方也存在石油富集区。

You know, to to give you an analogy, if you're Exxon, drilling in The United States may be attractive, but there's gonna be pockets of oil elsewhere around the world.

在美国，某些时期从监管角度来看，钻探可能并不那么有吸引力。

And there may be windows of time in The United States where from a regulatory standpoint, it's not that attractive to drill.

因此，美国并不垄断优质企业这一事实，加上外国货币相对疲软、外国市场的估值较低，意味着出于纯粹的审慎考虑，人们应当开放心态，将一部分资产配置到国际市场。

And so the simple fact that The US doesn't have a monopoly on good businesses, coupled with the reality that foreign currencies are pretty depressed and foreign markets have lower valuations, means that I think one should be open minded to having some amount of their assets invent invested internationally just out of sheer prudence.

我认为，这让我们能够安心地在全球范围内寻找不同的机会。

And and I think, you know, that gives us the peace of mind to be looking around the world at different opportunities.