RWH023：危险时期的防御性投资策略——与盖伊·斯皮尔共话

他们的新AI助手通过匹配真正符合你需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

无需再翻阅大量简历，它会根据你的标准筛选申请者，并突出显示最匹配的人选，为你节省数小时时间，帮助你在合适人选出现时快速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是，这些优秀候选人已经存在于LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工，至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

一次就招对人。

Hire right the first time.

免费在linkedin.com/studybill发布你的职位，然后推广它以使用LinkedIn的新AI助手，让寻找顶尖候选人变得更简单、更快速。

Post your job for free at linkedin dot com slash studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.

前往linkedin.com/studybill免费发布你的职位。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

适用条款和条件。

Terms and conditions apply.

想象一下，借助真正理解您客户的科技来扩展您的业务。

Imagine scaling your business with technology that understands your customers, literally.

这就是 Alexa 和 AWS AI 背后的故事。

That's the story behind Alexa and AWS AI.

每天，Alexa 在 17 种语言中处理超过十亿次交互，同时将客户摩擦降低 40%。

Every day, Alexa processes over 1,000,000,000 interactions across 17 languages, all while reducing customer friction by 40%.

这不仅关乎让生活更便捷，更在于转变客户互动方式并创造新的收入来源。

It's not just about making life easier, it's also about transforming customer engagement and generating new revenue streams.

在幕后，AWS AI 驱动着 70 多个专用模型协同工作，打造自然对话，证明企业如何以自信和安全的方式规模化部署 AI。

Behind the scenes, AWS AI powers more than 70 specialized models working together to create natural conversations, proving how enterprises can deploy AI at scale with confidence and security.

Alexa 的 AI 能力在亚马逊庞大的运营中经过实战检验，实现了规模化的真实可衡量影响。

Alexa's AI capabilities were battle tested across Amazon's massive operations, delivering real measurable impact at scale.

这些相同的创新如今为其他企业提供了经过验证的框架，以提升效率、解锁新的收入来源并获得持久的市场优势。

These same innovations now give other businesses a proven framework to boost efficiency, unlock new revenue streams, and gain a lasting market edge.

在 aws.comai/rstory 了解 Alexa 的故事。

Discover the Alexa story at aws.comai/rstory.

这是 aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

你的比特币持有量越多，面临的挑战就越复杂。

The more your Bitcoin holdings grow, the more complex your challenges become.

最初简单的自托管，如今已涉及家族传承规划、复杂的安保决策，以及应对可能让几代财富付诸东流的单次失误。

What started as a simple self custody now involves family legacy planning, sophisticated security decisions, and navigating situations where a single mistake could cost generations of wealth.

标准服务并未为这些高风险的现实情况而设计。

Standard services weren't built for these high stakes realities.

因此，长期投资者选择 Unchained Signature——专为认真持有比特币的人士提供的高端私人客户服务，提供专业指导、稳健托管和持久的合作关系。

That's why long term investors choose Unchained Signature, a premium private client service for serious Bitcoin holders who want expert guidance, resilient custody, and an enduring partnership.

使用 Signature 服务，您将配有一位专属客户经理，他了解您的目标，并在每一步为您提供帮助。

With Signature, you're paired with your own dedicated account manager, someone who understands your goals and helps you every step of the way.

您将享受白手套式入驻服务、当日紧急支持、个性化教育、降低交易费用，以及优先参与独家活动和功能的权益。

You get white glove onboarding, same day emergency support, personalized education, reduced trading fees, and priority access to exclusive events and features.

Unchained 的协作托管模式旨在为那些希望自行保管私钥的人士，提供与全球最大比特币托管机构同等的安全保障。

Unchained's collaborative custody model is designed to provide the same security posture as the world's biggest Bitcoin custodians, but for those who prefer to hold their own keys.

了解更多关于Unchained Signature的信息，请访问unchained.com/preston。

Learn more about Unchained signature at unchained.com/preston.

结账时使用代码Preston 10，可享受首年10%折扣。

Use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first year.

比特币不仅仅是为了人生。

Bitcoin isn't just for life.

它是为了世代传承。

It's for generations.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

你前几天跟我提到，经过这段时间，你新增了几项检查清单，你还谈到，得益于身处这个生态系统中，你阅读了汤姆·盖纳的年度信件等内容，从而得到了保护。

You mentioned to me the other day that you've come out of this period with a couple of new checklist items, and and you also talked about how you were protected by being in this ecosystem where you were reading things like Tom Gaynor's annual letter.

你能谈谈那些实用的检查清单项目吗？它们能帮助你防范这类诱惑；同时，也谈谈把自己置身于特定的知识环境和生态系统中，为何是防止自己过度狂热的关键方式。

Can you talk both about the checklist items that that are practical practical ways to protect yourself against these kind of temptations and also how putting yourself in a certain intellectual space and a certain ecosystem also is a key way of protecting ourselves from getting too carried away.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这个检查清单项目是对沃伦·巴菲特说过的一句话的有趣延伸。

So the the checklist item is an interesting riff on something that Warren Buffett has said.

我们都了解，沃伦曾说过，他并不介意股票市场关闭十年。

So we all know that Warren has said that he does not he would not mind if the stock market was closed for ten years.

他的估值和对业务价值的信心，并不依赖于任何特定的价格走势或报价。

His valuation and his confidence in the value of the business is not reinforced by any particular price action or any particular quote.

他关注的是企业的实际业绩。

He looks to the results of the business.

收入是多少？

What are revenues?

它产生了多少现金？

How much cash is it generating?

所有者收益是多少？

What are owner earnings?

所有这些好的方面。

All of those good things.

但当我研究一些公司时，我意识到它们并非依靠经营收益，而是通过资本市场筹集的资金（无论是股权融资还是债务融资）来投资于业务的未来。

But what I realized when looking at some of these companies that were investing in the future of their business not from operating earnings but from money raised in the market, either through equity offerings or through debt offerings.

许多这些公司最初源自风险投资公司，而风险投资公司则通过投入合伙人的资金来推动这些公司的发展。

And many of these companies had had originated inside of venture capital firms where the venture capital firms would have fueled their growth by putting their partnership money into those companies.

但这种模式似乎延续到了公开市场，有许多投资者愿意基于单位经济分析、收入增长以及其他各种数据继续为这些公司的增长提供资金。

But then that kind of it seems like that continued in the public markets, and there were plenty of investors who were willing to show up based on their unit economic analysis or revenue growth and all sorts of other numbers to continue to fund the growth of those companies.

因此，它们从资本市场获取资金，并将其投入运营亏损中，因为它们追求的是这一目标。

So they're taking money from the capital markets, and they're investing it in operating losses because they're going for this.

它们相信，只要能占据大部分市场份额，所有人都认同这一点。

They believe that when it takes all or when it takes most, they wanna grab market share, And everybody believes this.

这一切都很美好，直到音乐停止。

And all of this is wonderful until the music stops.

当资本市场不再愿意为你的增长提供资金时，这种情况似乎在2022年发生在了许多公司身上。

And the capital markets aren't willing to fund your growth anymore, which seems to have happened for many companies in 2,022.

然后公司必须进行重大调整，因为它们需要根据内部产生的现金流来重组商业模式。

And then the company has to do some huge reorientation because they have to restructure their business model based on internally generated cash flows.

在我看来，在许多情况下，到了这个时候，原本看似增长性资本支出或增长性投入，实际上只是企业的运营成本。

What it seems to me is that in many cases, at that point, what appeared to be growth CapEx or growth expenditure was actually an operating cost of the business.

在此之前，内部会计处理暗示企业是盈利的，因为它们可以将来自资本市场的这些新资金流归类为资本支出。

And the internal accounting up to that point implied that the business was profitable because they they could characterize these new flows of capital coming in from the capital markets as CapEx.

但突然间，这些可能不再是资本支出，而整个业务或业务的某些部分实际上并不盈利。

And suddenly maybe it's not CapEx and maybe actually all the business or aspects of the business are actually not profitable.

因此，一个简单的检查项是：公司能否仅凭现有现金流来资助其所有增长和所有可选的新业务投资？

And so the simple checklist item that comes up is, can the company fund all of its growth and all of its discretionary investment in potential new businesses from existing cash flows?

在某种意义上，我想说的是，风险投资是一个我深深尊重的世界。

And in a certain sense, what I'm saying is that venture capital is a world that I don't I I respect it deeply.

有些人把风险投资做得非常好，而且这种模式已经蔓延到了资本市场和公开市场。

There are people who do it really, really well, and it's spilled over into capital mark into public markets.

但我非常希望我的投资不属于那种由资本市场资助增长的风险投资类型，而是增长如果需要资金，应由内部自行提供。

But I very much want my investments not to be of the VC kind where capital markets are funding growth, but where growth is, if it's being funded, is being funded internally.

所以简单的问题是，公司能否依靠内部产生的资源来资助所有这些？

So the simple question is, can the company fund all of that from internally generated resources?

我。

I.

嗯，即使资本市场关闭，它仍能持续增长。

E, it continued to grow, can continue to grow even if the capital markets were closed.

它们不需要依赖与资本市场的互动。

They don't need to rely on their interactions with the capital markets.

对我而言，威廉，这正是为什么参加伯克希尔会议以及按时参加韦斯科会议如此有价值。

And what comes up for me, William, and this is why it's so valuable to do things like attend the Berkshire meetings and at the time to attend the WESCO meetings.

我知道你参加过每日邮报的会议。

I know that you've attended the Daily Journal meetings.

在一次韦斯科会议期间，组织了一次参观谢尔糖果公司的行程。

So a side trip organized at one of the Wesco meetings was a visit to See's Candies.

当时查克·哈金斯仍在那里，他带领我们参观了谢尔糖果工厂，我应该告诉你，这是一个非常简单的运营。

So Chuck Huggins was still there, and he led us on a tour of the See's Candy factory, which I should tell you is such a simple operation.

我的意思是，这个工厂完全不是高科技的。

I mean, this this factory is not high-tech at all.

这让我想起了我和莫尼什以及他女儿在中国参观茅台的那次游览。

It reminds me of the tour that Monish and I and his daughter did of Mao Tai in China.

所以我有了这个机会。

And so I get this opportunity.

我对此非常热情，我的意思是，我对See's糖果本身并不狂热，但我能看出这是一家多么了不起的企业，我们都知道关于提价的故事。

I'm super enthusiastic about I mean, I'm not mad about C's Candies, but I can see what an amazing business this this is, and we all know the stories about raising prices.

当然，你会感到沮丧，因为你心想，为什么这个企业不能位于美国的东西海岸或中部地区？

And, of course, you get frustrated because you say, why can't this business be in the West East Coast of The United States, the middle of the country?

为什么我们不把它带到瑞士？

Why don't we take it to Switzerland?

为什么我们不说服英国人？

Why don't we convince the Brits?

于是我开始为查克·哈金斯想出各种资本支出项目。

And I say, I start coming up with all these CapEx projects for Chuck Huggins.

他只是说，我们试过很多次了。

And he just says, he first of said, we tried many of them.

它们都没成功。

They didn't work.

他说，到这个时候，沃伦希望我们所有的多余现金都直接上缴总部。

And he said at this point, Warren wants all of our excess cash to go straight to head office.

但他们本可以截留自己产生的现金，尝试各种方法，但都没成功。

But they would have had the opportunity to withhold cash from that they were generating and try stuff, but none of it worked.

我的重点是什么？

What's my point?

沃伦会允许被投资企业进行投资，而不把现金上缴总部用于其他地方再投资。

Warren will allow the investee businesses to make investments and not send cash up to head office to reinvest elsewhere.

但他不会轻易做的是，仔细审查他是否真的把现金下拨给子公司。

But what he's not gonna do is is he's gonna look very carefully if he's actually sending cash down to the subsidiary companies.

实际上，我知道的唯一一个他经常这样做的公司是能源业务，因为他能非常确定，他下拨给该子公司的新现金将获得良好的投资回报率。

And effectively, the only company that I know that he regularly does that for is the energy business, where he can be very certain that the new cash that he's sending down into that subsidiary is gonna be invested at good rates of return.

我认为，对于其他所有业务，他都不会这样做，虽然我对内部运营了解得不是特别清楚。

In I believe, I don't know the internal operations that well, probably every other business, he does not do that.

所以从某种意义上说，我把这条规则应用到了我在公开市场的投资上。

So in a certain sense, I'm replying that rule to my investments in the public markets.

如果你是一家我投资的公司，想要融资，比如奈飞，发行了180亿美元的债券来投资新内容。

If you're looking to if you're a company that I'm invested in and you're looking for to raise money, you're like Netflix, and you go and do a bond issuance for $18,000,000,000 to invest in new content.

这是不行的。

That's a no no.

如果你的业务这么好，为什么不能用自己产生的现金呢？

If you're such a good business, why can't you take your internally generated cash?

为什么不能用客户带来的收入，支付所有开支后，直接用剩余的资金投资新内容呢？

Why can't you take the revenue that is coming from customers, pay all your expenses, from what's left over, just use that to invest in new content?

如果首席执行官来找我说，我们正在抢占市场，需要筹集这笔资金以便加速发展，那么在我心里的答案是——你不可能是一家这么好的公司。

And if the CEO were to come to me and to say, but we're doing a land grab, and we need to raise this money so that we can go faster, then the answer to, in my mind, not that I have to say this to the CEO, is well, you can't be that good a business.

因为如果你必须拼命增长，否则业务就会下滑，那显然你并不那么出色。

Because if you're under the gun to grow so fast and otherwise things will go south on you, you're obviously not that great.

还有一些企业更加稳健，它们持续地投资于扩大护城河的事务，并且能够无需向股市编造故事就进入相邻领域。

And there's businesses out there that are far more sedate and are reinvesting constantly in things that widen the moat and that enable them to go into adjacent spaces without having to tell a story to the stock market.

所以这就是检查清单上的项目。

So that's the, checklist item.

我花了很长时间来阐述，带你走了一段小旅程，但我希望我最终把你带回了正确的方向。

I took a long time over it, and I took you on a little journey, but I hope I brought you back to the right spot.

但我还没回答问题的第二部分，我认为那部分同样有价值。

But I didn't answer the second part of the question, which I think was equally valuable.

是的。

Yeah.

生态系统。

The ecosystem.

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

所以从某种意义上说，这个问题更容易回答。

So so that in a certain sense is far easier to answer.

这真的非常重要。

And it's really, really important.

因此，这个检查清单是我试图训练自己的一种思维方式，以防止我犯错。

So that checklist item is a way of me trying to train myself in a way of thinking that's gonna stop me from making mistakes.

如果我只是做出这一区分，剔除所有那些实际上由风险投资支持、并在公开市场上的公司，我想我会避免大量的精神损耗和麻烦。

And if I simply make that distinction and cut off all those companies that actually VC type funded investments that are in the public markets, I'm gonna save myself, I think, a lot of brain damage, a lot of hassle.

但对我而言，这个生态系统——我认为这确实令人遗憾。

But the ecosystem for me and I think so so I really I think it's a shame.

我有一些朋友，如果每年都能参加伯克希尔·哈撒韦的会议，他们会受益匪浅。

I I think I have friends who would have benefited from attending the Berkshire Hathaway meetings every year.

有一个想法，我不知道最初是在哪里读到的，但犹太教的安息日是一种‘时间中的大教堂’。

There's an idea that comes I don't know where I read it first, but the the Sabbath, the Jewish Sabbath is a cathedral in time.

它是如何被支撑起来的呢？

And how is it held up?

它是如何在时间中持续存在的？

How is it how does it sustain itself through time?

人们是如何保持安息日的？

How do people manage to keep the Sabbath?

这个想法是，它就像由细线支撑的山脉。

And the idea is that it's mountain ranges held up by threads.

正如你我知道的，关于安息日的规则并非无限，但却极为详尽。

And as you and I know that the sort of the rules around the Sabbath are they're not infinite, but they go into enormous detail.

你可以问自己，为什么这些规则会如此详尽。

You can ask yourself why do they go into enormous detail.

对于那些可能不太感兴趣的听众，这里有一些规定。

There are rules for those of you listening who are not maybe that interested.

对于一位极其虔诚的犹太人来说，有一条规定是不应拿起笔。

There are rules where one should not pick up a pen if you're an extremely observant Jew.

并不是因为笔本身会导致你违反安息日，而是因为它的唯一用途就是用来写字，从而违反安息日。

Not because the pen itself is gonna lead you to violate the Sabbath, but because it's object whose only use would be to violate the Sabbath by writing.

所以，连笔都不要碰。

So don't even pick up the pen.

有一种方式，就像不去开一个你曾经对我说过的Robin Hood账户，把糖果拿走。

And a way, it's like not opening a Robin Hood account that you wanna you once said to me, move the candy away.

你前几天跟我说，你为什么觉得每天都要查看你的股票呢？

You were saying to me the other day, why do you feel like you have to check your stocks every day?

我从来好像都没买过或卖过它们。

And I I never seem to buy or sell them.

我的意思是，我就只是持有它们。

I mean, I just sit on them.

但这是真的，我在这儿的一周里，从没见你看过你的股票情况。

But it's real I I haven't seen you once in a week that I've been here check what's happening with your your stocks.

是的。

Yeah.

没有。

No.

我确实没有。

I haven't actually.

我没有，这完全正确。

I haven't, and that's absolutely right.

所以你正好说到了点子上。

And so you you're taking making the exact point.

一旦你找到了这样的规则，一旦我找到了这样的规则，就要去研究并真正实施它。

And once you find that rule, once I found a rule like that, then then work on it and actually implement it.

无论是每年参加伯克希尔·哈撒韦会议，仅仅是参加伯克希尔·哈撒韦会议这件事就能让我状态更好，还是当我发现尼克的睡眠方式时，那真的非常美好。

So whether it is visiting the Berkshire Hathaway meeting every year, simply the act of going to the Berkshire Hathaway meeting is gonna put me into a better place or when I discovered that Nick sleep, and it was really beautiful.

他们的办公室就在国王路附近，简直太棒了。

So they have the most wonderful office on just off the Kings Road.

你去过那里，对吧？

You visited it, haven't you?

嗯。

Yeah.

所以，第一次我去的时候，我到处找彭博终端，因为我知道他有一台。

So, you know, the first time I was I I I say, I look for the Bloomberg monitor because I know he's got one.

它就像放在一个低矮的长凳上，看起来很不舒服。

And it's like, it's like it's on a low bench, and it's uncomfortable to look at.

尼克说：是的，我们不希望经常看它。

And Nick says, yeah, we don't want look at it that often.

他和扎克都提到过这一点。

And both he and Zach have talked about this.

所以，在我看来，当我看到这个后，我就暂停了彭博终端的订阅，大概停了一段时间。

So in in my case, when I saw that, I canceled my subscription from Bloomberg for, I don't know, a period of time.

但我把它转给了我们的CFAO，马克·查普曼。

But I gave it to our CFAO, Mark Chapman.

我对马克说：马克，你来关注彭博终端吧。

I said, Mark, you look at the Bloomberg.

最终，我决定这并不适合我。

Eventually, decided that didn't work for me.

但我确实做的是，那些有彭博终端使用经验的听众，你们可以设置复杂的交易屏幕，并将其调整为完全符合你需求的样式。

But what I did do is those of the listeners who have experience with the Bloomberg monitors that you can set up these elaborate, trading screens and and change them to exactly the way you want it.

在一段时间里，我尝试过这个功能。

And for a certain period, I played with that.

而且你可以设置成让它自动启动其中一个功能。

And I and you can set it up in such a way that it launches one of those things automatically.

你会有一两个显示器，上面布满了海量的数据，密密麻麻的。

And, you know, you have one or two monitors that are just like wall to wall carpeting of enormous amounts of data.

我曾有个想法，可以按自己的需求来组织这些信息。

And I had this idea that I could structure it in a way that worked for me.

但后来我意识到，不行。

And at some point, realized, no.

首先，我不会使用彭博终端的这个功能。

First of I'm not gonna use that functionality on Bloomberg.

这对我来说没什么用。

It's just not useful for me.

实际上，我的使用方式是：它就放在我的桌上，但大部分时间都是关着的。

And actually, modus operandi is the it's on my desk, but it's closed for a lot of the time.

所以这就是对我有用的方式。

So that's what works for me.

但真正重要的是，这一点——我想犹太教法中的犹太方式非常有趣。

But it's what's really important is that and this is something, again, I just think that the the the Jewish way in halacha is really interesting.

所以，如果我深入探讨犹太教的话题，请原谅我。

So, again, forgive me if I'm diving down a Jewish rabbit hole.

是的。

Yeah.

犹太教法基本上就是律法。

And halacha are laws, basically.

这些律法能让你保持正直，避免犯下太多错误，希望如此。

It's the laws that are that that that keep you on the straight and narrow so you don't mess up too much, hopefully.

这里有一件有趣的事：听众可能不知道，问题来了——如果一个虔诚的犹太人发现自己吃了猪肉怎么办？

So here's a fascinating thing is that so so the the listener might not be aware that the the question arises, what if a devout Jewish person finds himself eating pork?

那些试图解释犹太教法的拉比们并不会退一步说：‘哦，那你输了，你犯了罪，就这样了。’

You know, the rabbis who are making who try interpreting halacha don't step away and say, oh, then you've lost the game, you've sinned, that's that.

即使在违反哈拉卡的方式上，也有好坏之分。

Even in the way you break the halacha, there are better and worse ways to do it.

塔木德中讨论过，如果一个男人想要通奸，他该如何通奸？

They go in the Talmud into if a man wants to commit adultery, how should he commit adultery?

这并不是说通奸是一件好事。

So that's not saying that adultery is a good thing.

它说的是，上帝的临在或神圣临在从未离开你。

It's saying that that the God's presence or the divine presence never leaves you.

观察从未离开你。

The observation never leaves you.

无论你行为多么糟糕，你都从未被免除改善行为的义务。

You are never no matter how badly you behave, you are never removed from the obligation to improve your behavior.

所以，如果你把这个道理应用到投资中，重点是，我知道我没有采取下一个睡眠方案。

So if you apply that in investing, the point is, you know, I didn't do the next sleep solution.

但如果我把彭博终端放在桌上，也有好坏之分。

But if I'm putting the Bloomberg monitor on my desk, there are better and worse ways to do that.

如果你决定开一个Robinhood账户，这里有更好或更糟的方式去做。

If you decide to open a Robinhood account, there are better or worse ways to do that.

如果你决定进行日内交易，这里有更好和更糟的方式去做。

If you decide to day trade, there are better and worse ways to do that.

如果我去伯克希尔哈撒韦年会，你知道，这里有更好和更糟的方式去做。

If I go to the Berkshire Hathaway meeting, you know, there are better and worse ways to do it.

正如你从与我合作撰写我的书籍中所知，我可以去参加伯克希尔哈撒韦年会。

I can go to the Berkshire Hathaway meeting as you know from collaborating with me on my book.

我可以去和一群纽约的投资银行家混在一起，他们坐在后排，对会上发生的事持半批判态度，称其为邪教。

I could go and hang out with a bunch of New York investment bankers who sat in the back and were kind of semi critical of what was going on and called it a cult.

或者我可以告诉自己，我需要尽可能多地吸收这些内容，找到我的印度朋友群体，第一天就排队，坐在最前排。

Or I could say, I need to imbibe as much of this as possible and find my group of Indian friends and queue up on the first day and sit at the very, very front.

所以这些都是相互关联的线索。

So these are all threads that hold up.

我可以告诉你，我曾在办公室里为此展开过争论，为了提醒我们自己，你该如何建立保护机制，避免陷入疯狂？

And I can tell you that I had got into a debate in my office over this and just to remind ourselves, how do you create a protection against causing getting caught up by the madness?

我对我的同事说，如果你认为我不会被错失恐惧症和疯狂所裹挟，那就错了。

And I said to my coworkers, if you think that I'm not capable of getting caught up in the FOMO and the madness, you're wrong.

我这次没有被卷入的唯一原因，是我做了足够多的其他事情。

The only reason why I might not have been caught up this time is that I did enough of those other things.

在把话筒交还给你之前，我想留给每个人一个想法，一个几乎萦绕在我心头的想法，威廉。

And before handing the mic back to you, I'll just leave everyone with one thought one one thought that almost haunts me, William.

我永远不会忘记它，而且我不断重复它。

And I I will never forget it, and I keep repeating it.

如果你们之前听过我这么说，请原谅我。

And forgive me if you've heard it come out of my mouth before.

在曼哈顿中城史密斯与博伦斯基牛排馆与沃伦共进午餐时，我们正聊到我父亲以及他从未负债的事，沃伦说了一番话。

At lunch with Warren, at the steakhouse in downtown in Midtown Manhattan, Smith and Bolensky's, Warren says the words, and we'd been talking about my father and about how he had never gotten into debt.

实际上，我们在克洛斯特斯这个地方时，确实申请了一笔非常微不足道的抵押贷款。

And actually we put a very very we're sitting in this place in Closters where we did take out a very insignificant mortgage.

我父亲对此嗤之以鼻，因为在他在看来，你这辈子究竟为什么要负债呢？

And my father was derisive because in his view, why on earth would you ever need to take any debt ever in your life?

只需节制，买个小一点的公寓，别买公寓，不管怎样。

Just restrict, buy a smaller apartment, don't buy the apartment, whatever it is.

所以我们正在和沃伦讨论这个。

And so we're discussing this with Warren.

为了补充一下背景，我们聊到在以色列生活时，我们家的奢侈和美好生活就是去达娜卡迪亚酒店，点一杯咖啡拿铁，再来一杯那种巧克力馅、奶油馅的咖啡。

And just to bring up the context, we're talking about how when we lived in Israel, luxury in our family and the good life was to go to this hotel, the Dana Kadia, and get a cafe au lait, get a sort of, like, chocolate filled, cream filled coffee.

那简直像一颗炸弹。

It was like a bomb.

那太有趣了，是周末下午的一种奢侈享受。

It was so much fun, it was a luxury on a on a weekend afternoon.

沃伦顺口说了一句：是啊，我永远不想陷入债务，因为我怕发现自己能有多疯狂。

And and Warren says, just as a sort of side comment, yeah, I I wouldn't want to get into debt ever because I don't want to discover what I'm capable of.

如果你们以前听过我说过这话，请原谅，但沃伦·巴菲特可不是随便什么人说他不想知道自己一旦背负重大债务会变成什么样。

And forgive me if you've heard this from me, but Warren Buffett, this is not some individual saying that he doesn't want to discover what he's capable of if he allows himself to get into any significant amount of debt.

既然沃伦都这么担心，那我如果经常和那些用Robinhood账户的人混在一起，对其他各种事情，不仅仅是债务，又该有多担心呢？

So if Warren is worried about that, how worried should I be about all sorts of other things, not just about debt, if I hang out too much with people who have Robin Hood accounts?

所以，如果沃伦会因为身处错误的环境而做出糟糕的决定，我当然也会。

Or so so if Warren can get himself into the wrong environment which would result in bad decisions, I certainly can.

我真的认为，这是一场持续不断将自己引向积极方向的努力。

And I really do think that it's a constant work of channeling ourselves into a positive direction.

当我们面临岔路口、看到机会时，我知道我曾对你们说过这句话：走高尚的路，要明白这不仅仅是一次决定。

And when we see a fork in the road, when we see an opportunity, you know, I I gave this phrase to you, take the high road and realize that it's not just one decision.

而这正是伯克希尔以及沃伦在各个领域决策中所体现出来的东西。

And this is something that, again, it comes through in Berkshire's in in Warren's decision making over all sorts of areas.

假设你此刻所做的这个看似微不足道的决定，会在你的一生中、在宇宙中无限重复，结果会怎样？

Assume that the decision you're making this one time, which seems to be insignificant, is repeated infinitely across your life and across the universe for you, and what would the results be?

如果是积极的，就选择它。

And if it's positive, take it.

但如果它不积极，那就选择更不可能带你走向糟糕境地的那一条路。

But if it's not positive, then take the one that is less likely to lead to a bad place.

所以，抓住机会去参加伯克希尔哈撒韦的年会吧。

So take the opportunity to go to the Berkshire Hathaway meeting.

你知道，真正困难的是，当你面对这些令人错失恐惧的新商业模式时，分析这些东西是我的职责。

You know, on the what's really hard and and is that when you come to these FOMO new business models, it is my job to analyze that stuff.

所以我不能简单地一概否定，说这是加倍的毒药。

So I can't just dismiss them out of hand and say, this is rat poison squared.

我不会这么做。

I'm not gonna do it.

我必须仔细研究，判断对我而言它是否真的是加倍的毒药。

I have to examine it and decide whether for me it really is rat poison squared.

这真的很难，因为你必须进入那些危险的领域。

And that's really hard because you have to go into those dangerous zones.

你不能只待在安全而狭隘的范围内。

You can't just stay in the safe and narrow.

所以，盖伊，一个值得注意的是，你已经度过了这段相对危险的时期。

So, Guy, one of the things that's striking is that you've come through this period that was relatively dangerous.

对吧？

Right?

你在加密货币崩盘中安然无恙地脱身了。

You managed to escape relatively unscathed from the crypto blowing up.

你根本没有持有任何加密货币。

You didn't own any crypto.

你在那些过热且定价过高的科技股崩盘中也成功全身而退。

You managed to emerge unscathed from these hot overpriced tech stocks blowing up.

你在新经济中所持有的头寸都非常谨慎。

The only positions you had taken in that new economy were pretty cautious ones.

你只购买了谷歌的一小部分股份。

You bought a very small stake in Google.

你买了一小部分股份，我认为是推特1%的股份，后来在埃隆·马斯克收购该公司时你成功退出了。

You you bought a small stake, I think, a 1% position in in Twitter that then you managed to get out of when when Elon Musk bought the company.

但如今一切价格回落、估值下降、泡沫破裂，令人惊讶的是，你实际上什么都没做。

But now that everything's come down, prices have come down, the the valuations have come down, the bubble has burst, it's striking that you still haven't actually done anything.

你还没找到任何值得买入的东西，目前持有大约10%的现金，这是我多年来见过你持有的最高现金比例。

You haven't managed to find anything to buy, and you're sitting on, I think, about 10% in cash, which is the most I've seen you sitting on for years.

我在想为什么。

And I'm wondering why.

你为什么如此谨慎？

Why are you going so cautiously?

在这样一个不再那么狂热、疯狂和可能充满妄想的时期，你为什么觉得如此少的东西能让你兴奋？

Why are you finding so little to excite you in a period where it's no longer so ebullient and so crazy and so potentially delusional?

有时威廉会提出这个问题，你带着一种信心提问，认为答案会

Sometimes William William asks the question, you ask the question with the confidence that the answer is

马上浮现，并且会有一些深刻的智慧。

just gonna pop up, and there's gonna be some profound wisdom.

我不完全确定具体原因。

And I'm not entirely sure exactly why.

所以我试着去理解这一点。

So I can try and understand that.

而且，在我实时试图理解这一点之前，我这样做只是一个神话或事实，并不意味着它是对的。

And, before I try and understand that in real time, the myth the fact that that's what I'm doing doesn't mean that it's right.

这仅仅意味着，这个特定的人到目前为止，根据他所处的特定环境做出了这样的反应。

It just means that this particular human has reacted to his particular circumstances up to now in that way.

你就是你，我的意思是，作为和你做了二十五年朋友的老观察者，我感觉你对这个世界正在发生的事情有点困惑，对刚刚发生的事也有些震惊。

You do you I mean, I'm wondering if you as just an old observer of you having been friends with you for twenty five years or so, it feels a little bit like you're a little confused by what's going on in the world, and you're a little bit shell shocked by what just happened.

你有点像躲进了自己的避难所，现在光线出现了，你小心翼翼地探出头来，思考着：我该做什么？

And there's an element of you being slightly in your bomb shelter, of peeking out now that the light has emerged and trying to think, what do I do here?

是的。

Yeah.

如果你让我深入谈谈，我可以讲一讲我曾经渴望的那些公司。

So one thing that I can go into a little bit if you draw me on it is how companies that I yearned for.

我说，如果你们的估值合适，我就会对你们感到兴奋。

I said, if only you had the right valuation, then I'd be excited about you.

我们已经提到了，但我一直渴望Netflix。

And we've mentioned it already, but I've yearned for Netflix.

我写过关于它的文章。

I've written about it.

里德·哈斯廷斯是一位卓越的五级领导者。

Reed Hastings is an amazing level five leader.

现在我再看它，就像你说的，它已经不再让我兴奋了，我看到的更多是危险而非机会。

And and I look at it now and it just doesn't excite me, as you say, and and I don't see I see more danger than opportunity.

我认为，许多公司估值下跌后，情况也是如此。

And I think that's the case with many companies whose valuations have come down.

我仍然不觉得，要么是新建仓，要么是卖出别的东西来买入它们，而我并没有这样的意愿。

I still don't you know, it's either initiating a new position or selling something to buy them and I don't find myself wanting to do that.

我跟你讲过我跟我父亲的一次对话。

I related to you a conversation that I had with my father.

战斗、逃跑、冻结——这些原始的爬行动物式反应，我们始终应该意识到它们存在于我们体内。

So fight flight freeze kind of reptilian reactions that we already ought to always be aware of inside of us.

当混乱发生，或者市场动荡时，我自然的反应是冻结，这对我很有帮助。

And something that has served me well is when mayhem happens or market mayhem happens, my natural reaction is to freeze.

这并不是一个糟糕的状态。

It's not a terrible place to be.

stopwatch，观察，试着理解正在发生什么。

Stopwatch, observe, try and understand what's happening.

你会注意到，有些交易者在市场活跃且波动时，会开始频繁交易。

You'll notice that there are some trader types that when the market gets active and volatile, they start trading a lot.

所以他们可能进入了恐惧和逃跑的状态。

So they're perhaps going into fright and flight.

而冻结状态或许是一个更理性的选择。

And freezes are perhaps a more rational place to be.

你说要走出来面对现实，但我完全不这么认为。

And you say come out into the light, but I don't see that at all.

我曾被一位哈佛商学院教授深深触动，他参加了一次与一群人士的简报电话会议，他是俄罗斯问题专家。

I think that I was really struck by a Harvard Business School professor who came on a sort of briefing call with a group of people who's a Russia expert.

他对乌克兰冲突以及核交战可能性上升感到极度震惊。

He was really shell shocked by the Ukraine conflict and the increased probability of a nuclear exchange.

我和父亲就此事进行了一次对话，我们认为降低紧张局势的机会有限，而升级的可能性却很广泛。

And I had a conversation with my father about it where opportunities to de escalate seem limited and possibilities for ex escalation seem broad.

一方面，世界上有两个超级大国或两种体系——专制体制和自由民主体制，它们正因一场热战而相互冲突。

And you've got on the one side effectively, you've got two superpowers or two systems in the world, authoritarian and liberal free democratic, who are in conflict with each other over a shooting war.

至少在北约一方，我们试图通过限制向乌克兰提供的武器种类，假装我们并未与俄罗斯发生热战。

And at least on the NATO side, we're trying to pretend that we're not in a shooting war with Russia by making all these restrictions in terms of what arms we supply to the Ukrainians.

但如果你审视底层现实，这实际上是两个超级大国之间的冲突，而超级大国是不会输掉战争的。

But effectively, if you look to the underlying reality, it's two superpowers in conflict with each other, and superpowers don't lose wars.

因此，这场冲突将如何收场，实在令人恐惧，也让我变得极其谨慎。

So how is this gonna end is something that is really scary, actually, and leads me to want to be incredibly cautious.

我不希望，你知道的，像那种夸大其词、大喊‘天要塌了’，然后抛售一切、全部转成现金的做法。

And I don't want to, you know, sort of be trick and little, the sky is falling on our heads, sell everything and go to cash, so to speak.

我认为，最安全的选择还是留在我们所从事的这类企业中。

I think that the safest place to be is in the kinds of businesses that we're in.

但我确实感到非常谨慎，极度谨慎。

But I certainly don't wanna I I'm feeling very cautious, extremely cautious.

我们还没有度过这个世界正在经历的这一切，未来回望时，我们才会明白这究竟是什么。

We're not through whatever the world is going through, and we'll understand in retrospect what it was.

你知道，我们正在讨论供应链的重组。

You know, we we're talking about a realignment of supply chain.

在过去，也就是自1945年以来我们所经历的全球化时期，供应链的优化一直基于以最低成本生产我们所需的货物或商品。

So supply chains in the past, in in this period of globalization that we've been in perhaps since 1945, has been optimizing supply chains based on what is the lowest cost way to produce this good or commodity that we need.

新冠疫情的爆发和超级大国之间的竞争，意味着物价上涨的部分原因在于供应链正在重新配置，不再以成本最优为目标，而是以韧性为导向。

And the advent of COVID and rivalry between superpowers has meant that part of the reason why prices are going up is that supply chains are being reconfigured not for optimal costs but for resilience.

而一个具有韧性的供应链很可能成本更高。

And a resilient supply chain is probably more expensive.

所以我今天刚在报纸上看到，德国已经批准了一家半导体公司——我记不清名字了——在德国生产半导体。

So we see I just read in the paper today that Germany had approved, I don't remember the name of the semiconductor company, but semiconductors being produced in Germany.

我们通常不会认为半导体是在德国生产的。

That's a we don't think of semiconductors being produced in Germany.

我们谈论的是iPhone不再在中国生产，而是在美国生产。

We're talking about iPhones no longer being produced in China but being produced in The United States.

因此，正在发生这些真正的重组，这让我只想保持谨慎，非常、非常谨慎。

So there are realignments that going on that lead me to wanna just be cautious, to be really, really cautious.

你前几天跟我说，你觉得这场危机比你上世纪九十年代经历的亚洲金融危机、9/11事件或全球金融危机还要严重。

You were saying to me the other day that you actually feel like this is a a bigger crisis than, say, the Asian contagion that you lived through in the late nineties or or 09/11 or the global financial crisis.

这让我有点惊讶，你怎么会认为这是一场对投资者更具根本性、潜在系统性威胁的危机呢？

And it sort of took me aback in a way that you regard this as a more fundamental and potentially really systemic threat to investors?

我认为，要说这是自二战以来全球格局发生的最大变革，并不难论证。

Though I believe that I I don't think it's hard to make the case that this is the biggest shift that is taking place in sort of global dynamics since World War two.

因为1989年苏联解体，东欧各国从俄罗斯的掌控中解放出来，实际上转向西方，其中许多国家加入了北约，那是一段愉快的增长时期。

Because the the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1989 and the the release of all those Eastern Europe countries from Russia's grasp and effectively into the West and many of them into NATO was a kind of a happy growth period.

你见证了欧洲复兴与发展银行等机构的成立。

You had you had the creation of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development was one of the institutions.

许多这些国家加入了欧盟。

So many of these countries joined the EU.

一些国家加入了北约。

Some of them joined NATO.

当时人们普遍认为，无论如何，作为核超级大国的俄罗斯最终都会接受其在国际事务中角色的弱化。

You had this idea that one way or another, Russia, a nuclear superpower, was gonna, accept a reduced role in world affairs.

尽管它仍然是一个帝国，一个以多种亚文化与国家为内核的帝国，人们曾以为它会像荷兰或英国等其他伟大帝国一样，逐渐退出历史舞台，接受一个缩小但仍有贡献的角色，并融入民族国家的行列。

And despite the fact that it's still an empire, it's a country disguising an empire with many subcultures and countries within it, that it was going to kind of go off into history as the way that other great empires have gone off into history like The Netherlands or The United Kingdom and accept a diminished role and a productive role and take its place amongst the nation states.

它似乎一度正在朝这个方向发展，但不知为何，俄罗斯决定这种命运是它无法接受的。

And it did that where it appeared to be doing that until, it seems like one way or another, Russia decided that it wasn't that fate was not acceptable to it.

实际上，克里米亚必须属于俄罗斯，甚至乌克兰也应如此。

And actually, Crimea had to be part of Russia and potentially Ukraine.

我明白，在他们最极端的构想中，他们还想重新夺回巴尔干地区。

And I understand that in their maximalist version, would retake the Balkans.

于是，我们突然面临一场赤裸裸的超级大国冲突。

And so suddenly we have raw superpower conflict.

而自二战以来，我们似乎从未经历过这样的局面。

And that is since World War two, we haven't had that really, it seems to me.

我觉得，我不知道这种情况最终会如何收场。

And, I feel I feel like and I don't know how that works out.

我确实认同我读过的一本亨利·基辛格的书——《世界秩序》。

And I really do buy into this book that I read by Henry Kissinger, World Order.

这个世界是一种现实主义的世界事务观。

The world it's a realist view of world affairs.

世界倾向于让国家形成秩序，即使它们存在分歧；权力集团和超级大国，即使根本上意见相左，也能找到共存的方式，就像我们曾经与苏联和平共处一样，尽管苏联曾有一种想要将世界共产主义化的意识形态，而我们许多人并不希望如此。

The world tends to order Countries, even if they disagree, power blocs, superpowers, even if they fundamentally disagree, find a way to order in the same way that we found a way to live side by side with the Soviet Union, even though the Soviet Union once had an ideology that wanted to turn the world communist, and the rest, many of us didn't want that.

但目前这种局面究竟会如何发展，我们还不知道。

But exactly how that falls out right now, we don't know.

也许这仅仅过于、过于、过于谨慎了。

And maybe that's just overly, overly, overly cautious.

我之前在ValueX谈话时。

I was talking we're at ValueX.

我跟一个俄罗斯股票被冻结的人聊过。

I was talking to somebody who, has had Russian shares frozen.

我们知道，俄罗斯在西欧和美国的资产正被冻结。

And we have we know that Russian assets in Western Europe are being frozen and in The United States.

至少我们对财产权有着深厚的尊重，这种尊重如此之深，以至于我们会冻结俄罗斯寡头的资产，但不会没收它们。

And at least we have deep respect for property rights, such deep respect for property rights that, we will freeze Russian oligarchs' assets, say, but we won't expropriate them.

这给我们带来了巨大的法律问题：如果我们基于外交政策征用某一类人的财产，那么我们接下来还会征用谁的财产？

And it causes a big legal issue for us is that if we expropriate one set of people based on foreign policy, then who else would we expropriate?

财产权原则对西方文明至关重要。

The property principle is extremely important to Western civilization.

但在俄罗斯，财产权原则并未得到如此强烈的重视，在其他任何文明中也是如此。

But the property principle does not apply as strongly in Russia, doesn't apply so strongly in any other civilization.

我们拥有大量的跨境资产持有，无论是在我的投资组合层面——我直接持有中国资产，更不用说那些拥有海外资产的跨国公司了。

We have a huge cross holding of assets, whether it's at the level of my portfolio where I own assets in China, sometimes directly, not to mention multinationals that own assets.

如果各国开始质疑不同司法管辖区中个人的财产权，这将造成毁灭性后果，并大幅减少全球财富。

And now it would be utterly destructive and would reduce wealth in the world very significantly if national powers were to start questioning people's property rights in different jurisdictions.

仅仅冻结财产已经够糟糕了。

And not just freezing property is already bad enough.

但我又如何能确定这种情况不会发生，不会以这种方式发展呢？

But how can I know that that's not gonna unfold, and it's not going to unfold in that way?

如果它真的会这样发展，那么你知道，我不是历史学家，但我明白，1914年的一个导火索事件引发了一系列多米诺骨牌效应，正如历史向我解释的那样，第一次世界大战爆发了，而实际上没有人真正希望发生第一次世界大战，但一件事引发了另一件事。

And if it is going to unfold in that way, and what, you know, I'm not a historian, but I'm aware that a triggering event in 1914 resulted in a series of dominoes falling the way the history has been explained to me that World War one happened, and that nobody really wanted World War one to happen, but one thing led to another.

我可以把它想象成一场雪崩。

And I can sort of think of it a bit like an avalanche.

我们现在正经历着一系列小型雪崩。

And we're kind of having these mini avalanches right now.

情况会恶化到什么地步？

How bad is it gonna get?

如果一件事引发另一件事，我父亲看不到结束乌克兰战争的方法。

And if one thing leads to another, my father does not see a way to deescalate the war that's going on in Ukraine.

因此，也许它会通过一系列非自愿的步骤继续升级，每一步中，相关方都只是在做他们认为正确的事，就像现在许多人呼吁向乌克兰提供其获胜所需的武器一样。

So maybe it continues to escalate by a series of involuntary steps, wherein at each step the entity is doing what it thinks it ought to be right in the same way that many people right now are crying out for supplying Ukraine with the arms that it needs to win.

但也许这仅仅是针对一个无法承受巨大战略债务而失败的超级大国的进一步升级。

But maybe that is just an escalation against a superpower that cannot allow itself to lose with huge strategic debt.

我知道我在谈论一些我并不真正理解的事情，我认为没有人真正理解这些，但确实有人比我知道得多得多。

I know I'm talking about things I don't really understand, I don't think anybody really understands them, but there are people who know a lot more about these things than I do.

但这一切将走向何方？

But where is that going?

而且

And

我认为你对这些事情更加敏感，部分原因是你的家庭深受此类历史的影响。

Well, I think you're also more sensitive to these things partly because your family has been so deeply affected by this kind of history.

对吧？

Right?

因为你的家人在德国，曾在大屠杀中失去财产。

Because you had family in Germany that lost their fortune during the Holocaust.

你母亲一方的家人曾在南非动荡时期离开南非。

You had family in South Africa on your mother's side that left South Africa during troubled times there.

你家里还有人在以色列。

You you you have family in Israel.

因此，你非常清楚重大全球事件如何以极其出人意料的方式影响投资者。

So you're very you're very keenly aware of the way in which big global events can affect investors in extremely surprising ways.

所以也许你只是更加敏感。

So maybe you're just more sensitized.

如果我们只深入其中一段家族历史，抛开1938年、1939年之后的犹太人大屠杀不谈，就拿我1931年、1932年在德国的家人来说，他们当时过着优渥的生活。

And if we just go into one of one of those family histories, if we just go forget about the holocaust and what happened post 1938, 1939, but you take my family in Germany in nineteen thirty one, thirty two, and they were living the good life.

生活就像我们这里一样美好，繁荣富足，充满机遇。

Life as good as we have here, prosperous life, full of opportunity.

然而，一系列非凡的事件发生，那个在慕尼黑发动政变的人突然掌权了。

And by a series of remarkable events, this man who tried a putsch in Munich has suddenly won power.

到了1936年，我祖父再也无法从事法律工作，他们的财产被以各种方式没收，而且他们几乎没有机会离开。

And by 1936, my grandfather can no longer practice law and his properties have been their properties are being expropriated one way or another and there are any chances to leave.

那么，我们该如何想象那无法想象的事？

So how do we imagine the unimaginable?

对他们来说，那简直是无法想象的。

That was unimaginable to them.

在他们的情况下，所有资产都留在了德国。

And in their case, all of their assets were in Germany.

如果他们 somehow 拥有大量海外资产，生活本会好得多，因为他们本可以东山再起。

If by some reason they would have had lots of assets outside of Germany, life would have been a lot better because they would have been able to recover.

事实上，这只不过是一个换个国家的问题。

In fact, it would have just been a case of moving country.

回到你最初的问题之一，毫无疑问，我被美国吸引，因为它是一个具有非凡战略纵深的国家，世界大事不太可能以这种方式影响你。

Going back to one of your original questions, no doubt I've been drawn to The United States as a country of extraordinary strategic depth where world events are unlikely to affect you in that way.

我也被瑞士吸引，它是一个宁静的孤岛，在这里，财产权和个人权利长期以来一直得到尊重。

I've been drawn to Switzerland as an island of calm and an island where property rights and individual rights have been respected for a very, long period of time.

是的，我知道，我崇拜伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司、沃伦·巴菲特和本·格雷厄姆以及价值投资，但这一切只能在允许它发生的框架内进行。

So yeah, and and, you know, we I worship at the church of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett and Ben Graham and value investing, but that can only take place within a framework that allows it to happen.

我必须意识到，这个框架有可能被摧毁。

And I have to be aware that potentially that framework gets destroyed.

这可能只有1%的概率，甚至更低，但仍然是有可能的。

And it may be that's a 1% probability or less, way less, but it's still possible.

我想在那场灾难之后还能生存下来。

And I wanna survive that on the other side.

我要指出的是，在我看来，做空、押注下跌，并不是保护自己的特别有效方式，因为最终，你仍然依赖于这个系统来兑现你的空头赌注。

And it's worth saying that in my view of the world, shorting things, betting against, betting that things will go down, is not a particularly useful way of protecting yourself because ultimately, you're relying on the system to pay you out on your short bet.

而且你需要能够执行这种空头押注。

And you need to be able to enforce that short bet.

也许你能做到，但也许你做不到。

And maybe you'll be able to, but maybe you won't.

所以，购买保险实际上是让自己做好准备，即使未来二三十年遭遇极其糟糕的结果，你依然能够过得不错。

And so sort of buying insurance, it's actually setting yourself up in such a way that if you have a very bad outcome for the next twenty or thirty years, you can still do fine, if you like.

因此，如果我收购一家新公司，尤其是位于西欧和北美以外的地区，那么，从定义上讲，我就在风险曲线上走得更远了。

And so if I buy a new company, especially if it's outside of Western Europe, North America, then, you know, by definition, I'm going out some way on my risk curve.

那么，他们谈论的是什么？

So what what do they talk about?

在某些圈子里，这被称为风险偏好和风险规避。

Risk on and risk off in some circles.

所以，你实际上是在增加风险。

So you're increasing the risk in some way.

你增加了投资组合的复杂性，也增加了可能影响你的事件数量。

And you're increasing the complexity of the portfolio and you're increasing the number of events that can affect you.

是的，你也在潜在地实现多元化。

And yes, you're potentially diversifying as well.

但我们已经经历了一段全球增长、全球化和供应链优化的时期，人们从世界各地供应各种商品。

But we've been through a period of global growth, globalization, optimization of supply chains, you know, people supplying all sorts of goods from all over the world.

我祈祷并希望这种情况能持续下去，因为这是创造如此多财富的前提。

And I pray and hope that that will continue because it's it's the predicate of so much of the wealth that's been created.

但如果这种情况没有发生呢？

But what if that doesn't happen?

有趣的是，你不仅对美国高度敞口，实际上还对中国的印度高度敞口。

It's interesting how heavily exposed you are not only to The US, but actually to China and India.

前几天你跟我谈到，面对这段剧烈动荡和风险加剧的时期，你的应对方式之一是押注于美国这样强大、几乎不可动摇的经济体。

And you were talking to me the other day about how part part of your reaction to this period of tremendous turmoil and heightened risk is to bet on big, powerful, almost unshakable economies like The US.

你长期持有雀巢这家瑞士公司的股票，但除此之外没有其他西欧股票。

You have a a position in Switzerland in in Nestle that you've owned forever, but no other Western European stocks.

而你通过比亚迪、阿里巴巴等公司，对中国的敞口很大。

And then you have big exposure to China through things like BYD and and the like Alibaba.

然后你还在印度有投资。

And then you you own stuff in India.

我很想知道，你是怎么看待在像中国这样看似充满风险的地方投资的？在这样一个危险的世界里，这真的是一种明智的选择吗？

And I'm curious how you think about this question of investing in places like China that seem pretty fraught in some ways as actually a sensible place to be in a dangerous world?

你看。

Look.

我们讨论的是一些非常遥远的假设，我不能声称我的推理是无懈可击、绝对正确的唯一方式。

We're dealing in hypotheticals that go way out, and I can't claim that my reasoning is watertight, bulletproof, the only way to look at it.

所以我可以解释为什么我认为自己做出了明智的决定，但未来随着新情况的出现，也可能存在更好的应对方式。

So I can talk about why I think I'm making sensible decisions, but it could still turn out that in the light of new developments that there was a better way to organize oneself.

中国需要世界，我 elsewhere 提到过这一点。

So China needs the world, I've said in other places.

这最初是从通用汽车开始的。

And, you know, it started off with General Motors.

对通用汽车有利的，对美国也有利，反之亦然。

What's good for General Motors is good for The United States and vice versa.

对阿里巴巴、腾讯、比亚迪这样的企业有利的，对中国也有利。

What's good for beer moths like Alibaba, Tencent, BYD is good for China.

由于这推动了中国收入的持续增长，对中国有利的，对这些公司也有利。

And because it drives increasing rising incomes in China, what's good for China is good for those companies.

对世界有利的，对这些公司也有利。

What's good for the world is good for those companies.

我认为中国共产党及中国领导人对此有清晰的认识。

And I think that Chinese Communist Party, Chinese leadership understands that.

当他们意识到新冠限制措施不再符合民众利益时，他们务实放松了防疫政策，这让我深受鼓舞。

Was very heartened by the way in which they pragmatically lifted their Covid restrictions when they realised it wasn't serving their population.

因此，他们显然在做出理性的决策。

And so they're clearly making rational decisions.

全球化的最美好形态正是如此，这也是为什么，当你深入任何存在冲突的地区——比如以巴冲突或以色列与阿拉伯人的冲突——一旦国家之间建立起贸易关系，经济利益就会让政治和军事冲突逐渐退居次要地位，因为这不符合任何一方的利益。

And, you know, the the the most beautiful version of globalization is that and it's part of why, you know, just to dive into places anywhere where there's conflict, if you take the Israeli Palestinian or Israeli Arab conflict, the minute you get trade between nations, economic interest means that political conflict and military conflict kind of recede because it's in nobody's interest.

无论如何，据我所知，中国拥有开明的领导层。

China anyway has an enlightened leadership to the best that I can tell.

中国与世界其他地区经济联系越紧密，不同经济组织方式之间的竞争——无论是像中国这样的威权领导模式，还是像西欧和北美那样的自由民主模式——就越会减弱。

And the more economically intertwined China is with the rest of the world, the less interest or the this sort of rivalry between different ways of organizing the world's economy, whether it's under authoritarian leadership the way China has or under liberal democratic leadership the way we have in Western Europe and North America, recedes.

因此，我认为他们是理性的。

And so, I think that they are rational.

但我的简单看法是，尽管中国会出于经济利益行事，也会允许外国投资者在中国赚钱，但我真的很担心那些可能像被大象踩在脚下的老鼠一样的小国。

But my simplistic sense of it is that while China will act in its economic interests, also in in in the the sphere of allowing foreign investors to make money in China, I really worry about the smaller countries who may be like mice trodden under the feet of elephants.

因此，在我看来，中国不太可能像印度尼西亚或菲律宾等小国在大象之间摇摆不定的地方那样动荡不安。

And so it seems to me that China is unlikely to be as volatile a place as say Indonesia or The Philippines or other places where there's small countries moving around between elephants.

去年，你们在比亚迪上遭受了重大损失，这曾是你们一项非常成功的投资，但也许估值超前了，或者人们认为中国比以前更危险、更不适宜投资。

You took a big hit last year from BYD, which was a very successful investment of yours that then maybe the valuation got a bit ahead of itself or maybe people decided that China was a much riskier and less pleasant place to be invested than they previously believed.

你们在印度也遭受了一些损失，那里你们曾对印度能源交易所这家能源公司进行了非常成功的投资。

And you also took a bit of a hit in India where you'd had a very successful investment in an energy company, Indian Energy Exchange.

这实际上触及了一个关于耐心和不轻易卖出赢家的重要问题。

And it really gets at an important question about patience and the willingness not to sell your winners.

我记得蒙ish 曾经卖出了他在法拉利的全部仓位。

You you at one point, I remember Monish had sold his position in Ferrari, his entire position.

你卖了一半，现在莫尼什回头一看，说：老兄，你根本不该卖任何一股。

You sold half, and now Monish looks back and is like, guy, you never should have sold any of it.

你能谈谈这个令人痛苦的话题吗？对于像比亚迪、印度能源交易所或法拉利这样的股票，你是应该忍受波动，尽可能长期持有，还是在获得巨大收益时应该适当减仓？

Can you talk about this painful subject of whether whether you just ride out the volatility for a stock like BYD or a stock like Indian Energy Exchange or or Ferrari and you just hold it for as long as you can or whether you should be trimming when when you've got big gains.

你是如何思考这个如此困难且矛盾的问题的？

How do you think through this really difficult and conflicted issue?

是的。

Yeah.

我发现自己想找个廉价的答案，但这样很糟糕。

And I I find myself wanting to reach for for a cheap response, is badly.

也许作为人类，我们都难以清晰地思考这些问题，因为很大程度上，我们面对的是各种超出个人能力去优化的不确定性和复杂性。

And maybe badly as human, that all humans unable to think clearly about these things because in large part you're dealing with all sorts of uncertainties and complexity that is beyond any particular human to optimize.

威廉，很有可能我们关注的只是那些做出正确决策的人，而实际上，真正做出错误决策的人才是我们忽视的对象。

It is very possible William that we focus on the humans who it's not that they took those decisions well, it's that it's that the humans, the people who, who lost on those decisions are not the ones that we focus on.

所以我总是回到纳西姆·塔勒布的《随机致富的傻瓜》这本书，我们必须时刻铭记：我们所观察的现象，可能只是世界中某种机制所呈现的少数成功案例，而失败的案例对我们来说是不可见的。

And so we never and and I just keep going back to Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb, where we always have to bear in mind that the phenomenon we're looking at, there may be a process in the world that throws up only the successful examples and the non successful examples are not visible to us.

这些成功的案例看起来像是非凡技能的产物。

And those successful examples appear to be the products of extraordinary skill.

通过这种成功的人会觉得自己很有技巧，实际上他们不仅感觉如此，他们确实有技巧，但成功中也包含了一定的运气成分。

And the individual who's successful through it feels skillful, actually, they not just feels, they are skillful, but there was an element of luck that enabled that success.

在伯克希尔的例子中，我们可以以可口可乐为例，这项投资已经持有了很长一段时间。

So in the Berkshire case, we can take the example of Coca Cola where, that investment has been held through an enormous period of time.

但在某个时期，可口可乐的估值达到了盈利的40到50倍。

But there was a period where, Coca Cola got to a valuation of 40 or 50 times earnings.

几年后，当公司股价大幅下跌时，沃伦在年度股东大会上承认，持有它可能是个错误，他本该卖掉。

And then a few years later when the company's share price has come down significantly, Warren confesses to the annual general meeting that it was probably a mistake to hold onto it and he should have sold it.

我们都熟悉尼克睡醒和亚马逊的例子，但这里或许有一段有趣的历史可以书写——在你的书中提到，尼克在某个时点套现了一半资金，而我认为扎克则把钱全部留在了里面。

And we all know the example of Nick's sleep and Amazon, but there's an interesting history that perhaps could be written there where in your book you describe how at a certain point Nick took half his money off the table, while I think that Zach left his money on the table.

两条截然不同的路径。

Two divergent paths.

哪一条才是正确的？

Which one was the right one?

所以，在这两种情况下——比亚迪和印度能源交易所，这些仓位在投资组合中的价值都大幅增长。

So and it's really, really hard when you have so in both of those cases, BYD and India Energy Exchange, the position has appreciated enormously in the portfolio.

它们的价值已经是原始投资的数倍。

It's they're worth multiples of the original investment.

因此，当看到估值超越了基本面，当未来短期内的盈利风险相对于估值变得更大时，你是否应该减仓呢？

And so the question arises when you see the valuation get ahead of itself, when perhaps risks on the horizon, at least to near term earnings, loom greater relative to the valuation, should you trim or not?

一方面，查理·芒格说，找到一家好企业已经很难了，更不用说找到两次。

And on the one side you have Charlie Munger who says it's hard enough to buy a good business once, let alone twice.

不要给杂草浇水，而要修剪玫瑰。

Don't water the weeds and trim the roses.

紧紧持有它们。

Hold on to them.

做那个直到估值极高时才后悔卖出的伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资者，或者像亚马逊那样，在最近之前一直坚持持有的人。

Be the guy who was Berkshire Hathaway until that moment when it really was very, very highly valued and modern regret selling, or Amazon, where until recent history the thing to do was to hold on.

这显然是其中一个方面。

So that's clearly one aspect.

另一方面，波动的公用事业可能会令人痛苦。

And the other side is that the volatile utility can be painful.

确实存在一些情况，我们看到许多倒U形的图表，公司的估值飙升到极高的水平，而在图表下行的另一端，你会想，这东西还能恢复吗？

There are cases and we see many of these inverted U shaped charts where a company's valuation got so extremely ahead of itself that on the other side of the down direction of the chart, you sort of say, will that thing ever recover?

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的介绍。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗？

You know what sets the best businesses apart?

是它们如何利用创新将复杂性转化为增长。

It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.

这正是亚马逊广告在做的，由AWS人工智能驱动。

That's exactly what Amazon Ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.

每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，在一个价值310亿美元的广告生态系统中优化广告表现。

Every day, Amazon Ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.

结果是广告活动运行速度提升30%，并实现大规模的可衡量业务影响。

The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.

这就是亚马逊自身推动增长的方式。

And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.

他们的代理式人工智能将营销从一个资源密集型过程转变为一个智能自主系统，从而最大化投资回报率，并赋能营销人员专注于创意与战略。

Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.

亚马逊广告正在证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。

Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.

更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部完善的同一套创新方法论。

And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.

前往 aws.com/ai/rstory 了解亚马逊广告的故事。

See the Amazon Ads story at aws.comai/rstory.

网址是 aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

初创公司行动迅速。

Startups move fast.

借助人工智能，它们的交付速度更快，并能更早吸引企业客户。

And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.

但大单带来了更大的安全和合规要求。

But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.

SOC 2 并不总是足够的。

A SOC two isn't always enough.

适当的安全措施可以促成交易，也可能毁掉交易。

The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但哪位创始人或工程师能抽出时间来处理这些，而不顾公司建设呢？

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?

Vanta 的人工智能和自动化让企业在几天内就能准备好大单。

Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.

Vanta 持续监控您的合规状态，确保未来的交易不会被阻拦。

And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.

此外，Vanta 会随着您的业务增长而扩展，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。

Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.

随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 知道何时需要什么，并已构建了最快、最简便的路径，帮助您达成目标。

With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

这就是为什么认真的初创公司会早早通过Vanta实现安全合规。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.

我们的听众可通过vanta.com/billionaires获得1000美元优惠。

Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.

访问vanta.com/billionaires，立减1000美元。

That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.

新的一年到了，这意味着现在正是实现你一直以来梦想创业的最佳时机。

It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.

就在几年前，我启动了自己的电子商务业务，而Shopify正是我起步时需要的工具。

Just a couple years ago, I launched my own e commerce business and Shopify was exactly the tool I needed to get started.

当许多人不断将梦想推迟到明年时，我要告诉你们，现在正是抓住眼前机遇的时候。

While many people continually push off their dreams until the next year, I am here to tell you that now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities right in front of you.

Shopify为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切工具。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数百万人，包括我自己，都已经完成了这一跃，从普通家庭用户转变为刚刚起步的创业者。

Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already made this leap from household names to first time business owners just getting started.

从数百个精美的模板中选择，你可以自定义它们，并使用内置的AI工具撰写产品描述或编辑产品图片。

Choose from hundreds of beautiful templates that you can customize and use their built in AI tools to write product descriptions or edit product photos.

随着你的成长，Shopify也会在每一步与你同行。

And as you grow, Shopify grows with you every step of the way.

在2026年，别再等待，立即用Shopify开始销售。

In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.

注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就开始在shopify.com/wsb上销售。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

那就是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

聆听你新的一年，有Shopify在你身边。

Hear your first This New Year with Shopify by your side.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

你和

You and

前几天，你从苏黎世的家开车到克洛斯特斯这里的这座山间房屋时，告诉我你开车非常慢，在限速50公里/小时的区域，你完全乐意开35公里/小时。

I were driving the other day from your home in Zurich to this house in the mountains here in Closters, and you were telling me how you drive very slowly and you're perfectly happy to drive 35 in a 50, I guess, kilometer an hour area.

我当时对你说，这其实很有趣地反映了你目前的心理状态。我作为一个人，多年来一直告诉你，当你变得过于自大和自信时，当你不合理地防御或过于不安时，你其实不应该这么道歉，因为你已经做得很好了，你的回报也很不错。

And I was saying to you, that's a pretty interesting insight into where you are at the moment psychologically that I as someone who, over the years, I I I tell you when I think you're getting too swaggering and overconfident and when you're unreasonably defensive and too shaken and that you actually should not be so apologetic because actually you've done really well and your returns are good.

我当时对你说，我觉得你现在的表现比实际需要的更加胆怯。

I was saying to you, I I feel like you're you're more timid at the moment than you need to be.

我并不是在说这与乌克兰或任何其他地方的局势有任何关联。

I'm not saying this is any any insight into the situation in Ukraine or anywhere else.

我只是觉得你身上有些东西，虽然没有蜷缩成胎儿姿势，但确实有点凹陷和淤青。

I just think there's something about you that's slightly not in not in fetal position, but slightly dented and bruised.

这确实引出了一个有趣的问题：我们常常误以为投资者是一种冰冷、理性、无动于衷的操作者。

And it it really does raise these interesting questions about the illusion that we have that an investor is some kind of icy, rational, dispassionate operator.

这些年来，你和我多次讨论过这一点，实际上最重要的一件事就是管理好自己的情绪波动，并保持这种自我觉察。

And you and I have talked a lot about this over the years that actually one of the most important things is to manage your own emotional craziness and and to have this self awareness.

你能再多谈谈你是如何做到这一点的吗？

Can you talk a bit more about how you actually do that?

因为这很难。

Because it's it's tough.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我上周来的时候就跟你说过，你看起来有点孤单。

I mean, I said to you when I when I came last week, I said, you seem a little lonely.

你看起来有点悲伤。

You seem a little sad.

是啊。

Yeah.

有点沮丧。

A little a little deflated.

你知道，你妻子和孩子当时在伦敦，因为学校正在放半学期假。

And, you know, your wife and kids were in London because they were on half term from school.

所以，劳里，你可爱的妻子现在在克洛斯特斯，当时正和孩子们在一起。

And so, Laurie, your lovely wife who's now here in in Closters was with the kids.

这恰恰生动地展现了你作为投资者所面对的现实：你希望自己是一个冷静、理性、毫无情绪波动的人。

And and it's just it's a fascinating kind of microcosm of the reality of what you're dealing with as an investor that you wanna be this cold, dispassionate, icily, unemotional person.

但事实上，你会因为受阻而感到受伤，因为妻子和孩子在伦敦而你无法陪伴他们，从而感到悲伤。

But in fact, you're dealing with things like feeling bruised because you're stopped or feeling sad because your wife is in London with the kids and you're not able to hang out with them.

你能谈谈这个问题吗？如何管理自己的情感脆弱性？

Can you talk about this this question, how to manage manage your own emotional vulnerability?

是的。

Yeah.

当然了。

Abs of course.

这极其重要，因为每个人的情绪来源都截然不同。

And, it's so so extraordinarily important and, every person's emotions span come from a very different place.

你和我都是蒙ish的密切观察者，我的意思是，你曾和他一起去过印度，我也曾和蒙ash一起去过印度。

As you and I are both close observers of Monish, and I mean you've travelled with him in India, I've traveled with Monash in India.

我认为我永远无法完全理解蒙ash内心的运作方式，这与我的方式真的、真的完全不同。

And I don't think that I will ever fully understand the way Monash's internal landscape operates, which is really, really different from mine, for example.

就我个人而言，我们无法，我无法，我们任何人都无法看着蒙ish说：我需要像他那样行事，因为我永远无法重建那样的内在情感格局。

And for what it's worth, we cannot, I cannot, none of us can look at Monish and say, I need to operate the way he does because I will never be able to reconstruct that internal emotional landscape.

我认为，当我们谈论我的情感格局时，我所想到的是，在我进一步谈我自己之前，仅仅观察一位投资者并说‘我应该像他一样’或‘我应该做同样的事’是没用的。

I think that what comes up for me when we talk about my emotional landscape is if I just stay with that point before I come to what I'm about to say about me is that it's no good observing an investor and saying I should be the same or I should do the same.

我们永远不知道的是，当他们谈论某家公司的股票投资时，这笔投资占其投资组合的比重是多少。

One thing that we never know is when they talk about XYZ company stock investment, what proportion of their portfolio it is.

如果这笔投资占1%、10%还是100%，差别会非常大。

It makes a huge difference if that particular thing is 1%, 10%, 100%.

尽管我们可以尝试重建他们的视角，但我们其实并不真正了解他们的视角。

And even though we can try and reconstruct their perspective, we don't really know that perspective.

你可能知道某人在其管理的投资组合中持有高度集中的x y z仓位，但实际上，这个组合仅占其净资产的极小部分，或者他们通过费用结构赚取了更多收益，因此这个仓位实际上只是用来展示他们所做工作的手段。

You might know of somebody who has a very concentrated position in x y z portfolio that they run, but actually that portfolio is a minuscule part of their net worth or maybe they it is in a fee structure that they're making so much more money out of the fees that actually that position serves as a way to advertise what they're doing.

所以，要理解别人的视角非常非常困难。

So it's very, very hard to get anybody else's perspective.

这真的非常重要。

That's the really, really important.

如果我回到自己的视角，以我一周前的情绪为例，它可能已经显著好转了，我们必须考虑我们之前讨论过的若干因素。

If I go to my own perspective and we take my mood, a week ago and it's lifted probably dramatically or significantly, we have to take into account a number of things we've talked about.

粗略地说，我们可以谈谈乌克兰战争以及与我父亲的对话。

And just in very rough sense, we can talk about the war in Ukraine and concerns and conversations with my father.

我们可以谈谈这两项投资，它们在印度和中国曾大幅上涨后又下跌了。

We can talk about these two positions that have declined, having gone up many times in India and China.

我们可以谈谈我妻子离开我好几天，以及我在苏黎世度过的许多黑暗日子。

We can talk about my wife had been away from me for a number of days, and I'd lived through a number of dark days in Zurich.

所有这些因素都影响着我当前的心理状态。

All of those factor into the mental landscape that I'm in.

我认为，对我们所有人，或者至少对我而言，答案是培养一种平衡的园圃。

And I think that the answer for all of us, or at least the answer for me is to, excuse me, to cultivate a kind of a balanced garden.

因此，这个平衡的花园必须有一些树木，一些灌木，很可能还需要一片草坪。

And so the balanced garden's got to have some trees and it's got to have some shrubs and it's probably got to have a lawn.

我这么说是什么意思呢？

What do I mean by that?

家庭中的平衡，以及因接触阳光而带来的情绪平衡。

There's the balance in the family, There's the balance, in my mood as a result of exposure to sunlight.

此外，我们的投资对我的情绪以及我对世界的感受也有巨大影响。

And then there's also the degree to which our investments have a huge impact on my mood and the way I feel about the world.

以印度能源交易所为例，他们目前正在大量回购股票。

In the case of India Energy Exchange, they're repurchasing shares right now in quite a large number.

这感觉很棒。

That feels great.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我不喜欢他们的股价下跌这个事实。

I I don't like the fact that their share price is down.

显然，这并不有趣。

Obviously, it's not fun.

但我喜欢他们回购股票这一点。

But I love the fact that they're repurchasing shares.

这正是影响我情绪的一部分。

That is part of what affects my mood.

当我看到沃伦正在回购伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票，或者大举买入西方石油公司时。

When I see that Warren is either repurchasing shares of Berkshire Hathaway or he's buying a huge new position in, Occidental Petroleum.

对于西方石油公司，我第一反应是说：一旦进入石油行业，他难道没意识到石油行业正受到所有可能的监管打压，并被许多人憎恨，因为它被视为主要的碳排放来源吗？

And my first reaction on Occidental Petroleum is to say, once getting into the oil business doesn't he realize that the oil business is being hammered by every single possible regulation and it's hated by so many people as being a source of major carbon emissions.

直到我观看了西方石油公司首席执行官的一场演讲，了解到西方石油公司为实现碳中和所采取的自愿措施。

Until I saw a talk with the CEO of Occidental Petroleum and the voluntary measures that Occidental Petroleum has taken to become carbon neutral.

以及该公司首席执行官所具备的深刻认知：它必须成为对地球负责的能源供应商。

And the understanding that the CEO of that company has, that it needs to be a responsible supplier of energy to the planet.

而要成为负责任的能源供应商，就必须成为对地球碳中和的能源供应商。

And to be a responsible supplier of energy, it needs to be a carbon neutral supplier of energy to the planet.