TIP755：凯尔·格里夫斯分享寻找优质投资的个人流程

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自2020年以来，我的投资组合年化回报率为18.7%，同期标普500指数为17.8%。但比业绩更重要的是，我已经形成了一套可重复的、一致的哲学理念，我相信这将使我在未来许多年甚至几十年里以可观的速率复利增长资本。这一过程还在不断演进和完善。在今天的节目中，我将分享我的具体投资方法，而不仅仅是聚焦于高光时刻。

Since 2020, my portfolio has generated an annualized return of 18.7% compared to 17.8% for the S and P 500 over the same time frame. But what matters even more than the performance is just that I've developed a consistent repeatable philosophy that I believe will allow me to compound capital at attractive rates for many, many years and decades to come. And that process continues to evolve and improve over time. In today's episode, I'm going to share exactly how I invest. I'm not just going to focus on the highlights.

我还将揭露一些我最重大的失败案例。我将从一个纯投机者早期阶段的惨痛教训开始，讲述这些经历如何最终促使我采取更为自律的投资方式。接着，我会解释指导我决策的简单目标、设定高目标的利弊，以及为何我不愿花时间担忧像标普500这样的基准指数。之后我们将深入探讨我当前使用的投资框架，带您了解为何我以企业主而非交易者的思维思考。

I'm also going to pull back the curtains on some of my biggest failures. I'll start with a painful lesson from my early days as a pure speculator and how those experiences ultimately pushed me to adopt a much more disciplined approach. From there, I'll explain the simple goals that guide my decisions, the pros and cons of aiming so high, and why I don't spend time worrying about benchmarks like the S and P 500. From there, we'll dive into the framework that I use today. I'll walk you through why I think like a business owner rather than a trader.

我所专注的两类截然不同的投资标的，以及如何将质量评估视为光谱而非绝对标准。您还将听到为何我如此重视管理层的诚信、卖出股票的三大原因，以及我用来防范危险认知偏差的方法。如果您是一位希望强化投资思维、优化识别赢家的流程、并构建奖励耐心而非频繁操作环境的投资者，本期节目将为您提供改进所需的精准工具和视角。现在，让我们进入本周关于我投资哲学的节目。

The two distinct categories of investments that I focus on and how I evaluate quality as a spectrum rather than as an absolute. You'll also hear why I place such importance on management integrity, the three main reasons that I sell a stock and the methods that I use to help guard against dangerous biases. If you're an investor who wants to strengthen your mindset, sharpen your process for identifying winners, and build an environment that rewards patients rather than just, you know, constant activity, this episode will help give you the exact tools and perspectives to improve at that. Now, let's get into this week's episode on my investing philosophy.

自2014年以来，通过超过1.8亿次下载量的积累，我们研究金融市场，阅读对白手起家亿万富豪影响最深的书籍，让您始终保持对意外情况的警觉与准备。现在有请主持人凯尔·格里夫斯。

Since 2014 and through more than 180,000,000 downloads, we've studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Kyle Grieve.

欢迎收听《投资者播客》，我是主持人凯尔·格里夫斯。今天我将与您分享我的投资哲学。我有幸向业内顶级投资者学习，无论是与节目中表现出色的嘉宾对话，还是从史上最佳投资书籍中汲取经验，我都获得了吸收大量顶尖投资者智慧的机会。

Welcome to the Investors Podcast. I'm your host, Kyle Grieve. And today, I'm gonna share my investing philosophy with you. I have had the opportunity to learn from some of the industry's top investors, whether that's chatting with incredible outperformers as guests on the show or sharing lessons from outperformers from some of the best investing books that have ever been written. I've had the fortunate opportunity to absorb just a ton of incredible information from many of the best investors to ever do it.

要理解我当前的投资哲学，无需追溯太远就能说明一些关键错误。这些错误塑造了今日的我。我的首笔风险资产其实是加密货币。虽然我不会过多讨论加密领域——我的联合主持人普雷斯顿·皮什对此比我精通得多，这也不是我重点投入精力的投资领域——但加密货币投资对我产生了极其深远的影响。

To understand my investing philosophy today, I don't need to go too far back in time to explain some of the crucial mistakes that I've made. And these mistakes have helped shaped me into the investor that I am today. My first risk asset was actually in cryptocurrencies. And I won't get into crypto too much as my cohost Preston Pysh knows more about crypto than I ever will, and it's not really an area of investing that I put too much mental energy into. However, investing in cryptocurrency has had a very profound impact on me.

因此，如果没有涉足加密货币的经历，我可能永远不会跃入股市，或者可能会重蹈那些加密岁月中的诸多覆辙。让我们回到2017年，比特币从7月到12月间从约3000美元飙升至约20000美元。在那段时间里，我购买了各种山寨币，资本迅速翻了四倍，但我将这一切归功于运气。然而，这份好运即将离我而去。当我感觉买入的任何东西都会变成黄金时，我开始越来越深入地研究技术分析。

So without my foray into crypto, I may have never leapt into stocks, or I might have repeated many of the mistakes that I made during those crypto days. So rewind back to 2017 and Bitcoin had begun its run up from around 3,000 to about 20,000 between July and December. During that time, I was buying all sorts of altcoins and I quadrupled my capital pretty quickly, but I attribute all that to luck. But all that good luck was about to change for me. While it felt like everything I bought would turn to gold, I began researching technicals more and more.

我逐渐痴迷于一个名为‘一目均衡表’的技术指标。虽然它实际作用有限，但能为我的一些交易提供合理性依据。那时，我还在一分钟图表上进行杠杆押注，并根据这些‘云图’的指示做多做空。现在回想起来很可笑，我知道。

I began getting attached more and more to a technical indicator called Ichimoku clouds. So they don't do very much, but they helped justify some of my trades. At that time, I was also making leverage bets on, you know, one minute charts. And I was also going short and long depending on what those clouds were telling me. It's silly, I know.

如今谈起这些我几乎感到难为情——那时我对价值投资或投机一无所知。长话短说，我在极短时间内蒸发了约97%的加密资产。从中我汲取了几个教训：第一，警惕任何关于技术指标的宣传；第二，不要使用杠杆。

And I'm almost embarrassed to discuss it now, but I knew nothing about value investing or speculation at that time. Long story short, I eviscerated about 97% of my crypto assets over a very short period. So a few lessons I learned from this. One, be wary of anything regarding technical indicators. Two, don't use leverage.

第三，购买你理解的资产；第四，明白任何行动都可能伴随潜在风险；第五，别费心做空。现在快进到2020年3月，在2017至2020年间我完全没考虑过投资。

Three, buy assets that you understand. Four, understand that any action that you take has a potential downside. And five, don't bother shorting. So now let's fast forward to March 2020. I hadn't thought at all about investing between that time of 2017 and 2020.

某次在酒店大堂工作时，我偶然看到报纸文章提到市场短期内下跌了约23%。我脑中灵光一闪，认为这意味着有些股票正在打折出售。虽无法确切解释当时的直觉，但很庆幸我抓住了机会。于是我开通了首个股票账户开始操作。YouTube真正让我见识到价值投资的魅力。

While I was in a hotel lobby for work, I came across a newspaper article that mentioned that the market had slid about 23% over a short period. A light bulb inside of me went off and I thought this must mean that there's probably some stocks that were on sale. I can't tell you exactly why I felt this way at that time, but I'm sure glad I did. So I opened up my first brokerage account for stocks and just got to work. YouTube really opened my eyes to the wonders of value investing.

对此我深怀感激，因为我本可能重蹈加密交易的覆辙，只是换成购买股票而已。但相反，我学到了诸如价格与价值的区别、竞争优势的益处、为何某些股票被视为昂贵而另一些便宜等重要概念——这些认知让我受益匪浅。

And I'm very grateful for this because I could have just as easily been a fool and done exactly what I had done in crypto, just buying stocks instead. However, I learned about the concepts such as, you know, the distinction between price and value. I learned about the benefits of a competitive advantage. I learned about why some stocks are considered expensive versus some considered cheap. I learned a hell of a lot.

当时正值疫情封锁期，我手头有大把时间，几乎全都用来陪伴我的狗、当时还是女友的妻子，以及阅读投资书籍和年报。我的投资哲学由此开始构建。我本可以将资金全权委托银行管理——青少年时期确实这样做过，那时完全不懂自己在做什么。还记得刚对投资产生兴趣时，查看银行基金收益只有个位数的回报率。

And this was during the lockdown, so I had tons of time on my hands and nearly all of it was spent with my dog, my wife, who was my girlfriend at the time and books about investing and reading annual reports. So my philosophy from here began to build. I could have just handed all my money to the bank to manage. And I had done that when I was a teenager, not really having any idea what I was doing. I actually remember when I first became interested in investing, I'd look at the performance of my bank funds and saw this low single digit returns.

我学习的一部分是观察银行通过跑输指数赚了多少钱。于是我把这些线索串联起来，决定既然没人会像我这样关心自己的资本，不如尝试自己来构建。那段早期时光很有趣，因为它与我在加密货币领域的起步阶段惊人地相似。由于几乎所有资产都暴跌了，越是精准抄底疫情低点，就越可能盈利。当时许多优质资产都以极高的安全边际和上涨空间交易，想在这些市场中亏钱反而相当困难。

And part of my learning was seeing how much money the bank was making by underperforming the index. So I put two and two together and decided that since nobody else would care about my capital as much as I did, I might as well try to build it myself. Those early days were interesting because they surprisingly had a lot of similarities to the early days that I had in crypto. So since nearly everything had crashed, the closer you bottom tick those COVID lows, the more likely you were to just make money. And since many great assets were trading with very good margins of safety with a lot of upside, it was pretty tough to lose money in those markets.

幸运的是，我亏损时期的教训仍历历在目。尽管部分持仓在上涨，但我已深信长期投资与复利的威力。记得最早关于复利的启蒙来自我叔叔——他是位成功的房地产经纪人，曾讨论加拿大银行业的绝佳投资价值。他说只要买入这些银行股，设置股息再投资计划，然后持有几十年，就很可能获得非常丰厚的回报。

Luckily, lesson from my days of losing money were very, very fresh in my head. And even though some of my positions were going up, I had been sold on the powers of long term investing and compounding. So I remember one of my earliest lessons in compounding actually came from my uncle. So he was a very successful real estate agent, and I recall him discussing just how good of an investment that many of the Canadian banks were. So if you bought them, you could set up a dividend reinvestment program and then just hold onto them for decades and you'd probably do really, really well.

我记得他让我研究加拿大皇家银行。我的首批投资之一就是加拿大道明银行，但当我学会预测未来价值后，意识到道明银行的盈利增长率很难超过8%。此外我发现了一些前景更好的企业。于是在2020年，我买入了以下公司股票：合唱航空、加拿大航空、阿里巴巴、Aritzia、美光科技、推特、Bank Ozk、InMode、博健医疗、Sangoma和Seritage成长地产。

I remember him telling me to look at RBC. So one of my first investments was in a bank in Canada and that was TD Bank. But after I learned more about forecasting future value, I realized that TD just was unlikely to grow earnings by much more than 8%. And besides I discovered some other businesses that I thought had much better prospects. So in 2020, I purchased shares in the following companies, Chorus Aviation, Air Canada, Alibaba, Aritzia, Micron, Twitter, Bank Ozk, InMode, Bosch Health, Sangoma, and Seritage Growth Properties.

回看当时，这简直是各种投资类型的大杂烩。选择阿里巴巴是因为它在中国——当时的主流叙事是中国将持续高速增长并领跑全球GDP增速。而Aritzia吸引我则因它在疫情前就表现优异，且通过转向电商成功应对了疫情冲击。

So looking back, it was quite a hodgepodge of different investment types. So you had Alibaba, which interested me because it was in China. And the narrative in China was that that country was going to continue to grow at a very, very high pace and would lead the world in GDP growth. Then you had Aritzia, which I found very interesting because it had grown well pre pandemic. It was navigating the pandemic really, really well due to its pivot to e commerce.

其产品需求持续旺盛，尽管人们都不去上班了。然后是Bank Ozk，这个点子其实克隆自我早期追随的Phil Town。在我看来这是家运营出色的银行，尽管有做空报告指出其贷款风险，但整体业务其实相当稳健。

And it just had products that were continuing to be in high demand even though people weren't going to work. Then there was Bank Ozk. This was an idea that I actually cloned from one of my earlier influences who was Phil Town. So to me, it looked like a very well run bank. And even though there was a short report out that discussed some of the riskiness of its loans, It looked to me like the business was actually pretty safe.

Seritage成长地产和美光科技则是克隆自莫尼什·帕伯莱的两个标的。在这两次克隆后我就变得谨慎了，因为两者都算不上全垒打——虽未亏损，但表现远不如预期，特别是Seritage。这段经历让我明白：克隆策略虽强效，但即便找到优秀的克隆对象，也仅有特定标的值得效仿。

Then there was Seritage Growth Properties and Micron, which were two ideas that I cloned from Monish Pabrai. So after cloning him on these ideas, I was very careful about cloning him again as neither was really a home run. I mean, didn't lose money on them, but it wasn't a home run. And I thought they would be, much better performers than they ended up being, especially when I looked at Seritage growth properties. This experience kind of showed me that cloning can be very powerful, but even if you find a great investor to clone, there's only specific ideas that are worth cloning.

分拆价值投资案例，结果却成了我的滑铁卢。所幸当时像多数初期投资一样，投入本金很小。尽管2021年确实出现了些亏损（至今想不通原因），但并未严重影响我的复利积累能力。

And then we get to Bosch Health. So this was an idea I cloned from Francis Chow and Bill Miller. It was kind of a sum of the parts play, but it turned out to be a complete disaster for me. Luckily, as with many of my first investments, I was working with a very small amount of capital at the time. So even though I did actually end up having some losers in 2021, which I don't really know how that's possible, they didn't significantly impact my ability to continue compounding.

由于我未使用任何杠杆，这也为我提供了额外的安全保障，以防我的判断出错。现在简要回顾了我的投资经历后，我想分享一些财务目标，这些目标或许能阐明我的投资理念及其形成原因。我的投资目标是每五年让资本翻倍——这个目标虽然非常乐观，却始终令我着迷。它充满挑战性，同时也意味着潜在的丰厚回报。

Since I wasn't using any leverage, this also allowed me some extra safety just in case I was wrong. Now that we have a brief history of my investing experience out of the way, I'd like to share some of my financial goals, which will also shed some light hopefully on my investing philosophy and why it is the way it is. So my goal in investing is to just double my capital every five years. It's very optimistic, but it was a goal that I always found very fascinating. It seemed like a challenging goal and one that was, you know, highly lucrative.

因此我从入行之初就秉持这个目标至今。这意味着我选择的任何投资至少要在五年内实现翻倍。多年来，这个目标让我收获了诸多启示，因为设定如此目标既有利也有弊。更激进回报基准的好处在于：若选股正确并达成目标，资金增值速度会更快，同时也意味着我将筛选出能带来数倍回报的超级赢家。

So that's what I went for when I started and that's what I go with now. This means that any investment that I should make should be able to double within five years at the very least. This has been an interesting learning point for me over the years as they're both positives and negatives to having a goal like this. So the benefits of having a more aggressive return benchmark are that if I'm right on my picks and I achieve my goal, then I'll just make money faster. It also means that I'm going to select some significant winners and multi baggers.

我钟爱此策略是因为无需持续寻找仅能上涨50%或翻倍的机会，而是可以发掘那些可能带来10倍、50倍甚至100倍回报的企业。这也使得我可以极度挑剔——即便某企业具备优质企业的所有特质（如高ROIC、高ROE、10%内部持股及深厚的竞争优势），我仍可能认为其缺乏投资吸引力。

I like this strategy because it means I don't have to be constantly searching ideas that might go up 50% or double. I can find businesses that can potentially 10 times, 50 times, or even 100 times my initial investment. And it also means that I can be very picky. Suppose a business is a quality business and has all the usual aspects of a quality business such as, you know, a high ROIC, high ROE, insider ownership of 10% and, you know, some sort of deeply entrenched competitive advantage. In that case, I may still not find an interesting investment.

OTC Markets集团就是典型案例。这家公司运营着美国和国际证券的场外交易市场，为上市公司提供交易披露和数据服务。经过研究，我认定它是家优秀企业。但基于当时研究时的高估值倍数和增长预期，我认为它突破我的回报门槛概率很低。不过，若你像我一样追求高回报，还需考虑几个潜在缺陷。

One such example is OTC Markets Group. So OTC Market Group operates financial markets where US and international securities trade over the counter, providing things like trading disclosure and data services for public companies. I researched the stock and concluded that it was an excellent business. However, given the premium multiple and my expectations for its growth at the time of my research, I just didn't think that there was a very good chance that it would beat my return hurdles. However, there are also several drawbacks to consider if you're seeking high returns like I am.

这些缺陷都与风险相关。和多数投资者一样，我更容易关注企业盈利潜力而非亏损可能。随着从价值投资大师处汲取更多智慧，我正竭力扭转这种思维惯性。许多优质企业的困境在于：当它们保持可观增速时，市场对其认知往往非常充分，因此很难获得估值折价。

And they all have to do with risk. So like nearly all investors, I find it easier to default about thinking about how much I can make from a business rather than what I can lose. As I learn more and more from legends and value investing, I'm trying to reverse that thinking as much as I can. The problem with many high quality businesses that are growing at a decent rate is that the market is usually intimately knowledgeable about them. So getting them at a discount in terms of multiples can be very soft.

我的策略最大弊端在于：有时会买入那些被寄予极高期望却最终未能达标的企业，这几乎是我所有投资失误的根源。由于我通常寻找内在价值年增速超15%的企业，这意味着要筛选每股收益或经营现金流增速超15%的公司。偶尔我会投资那些远超15%门槛的企业——比如某公司历史EPS增速达25%。

The major negative of my strategy is buying companies that just have these really, really high expectations only to have them fail these expectations. That has been the source of nearly all of my investing mistakes in some way or another. Since I am generally looking for businesses that are growing their intrinsic value by more than 15%, I also look for companies that have something like earnings per share or operating cash flow growth above 15%. Sometimes I invest in businesses that massively exceed that 15% hurdle rate. Let's say I have a company that has historically grown EPS at 25%.

但当它们遭遇单季度非常规支出导致EPS增速降至10%时，即便长期增长逻辑未变，市场仍可能重挫其股价。短期波动对我影响不大，但当我完全误判EPS增速时，股价会大幅向下重估，其回升可能性变得极不确定。现在我想转换话题，谈谈对绝对收益与相对收益差异的思考。

Then they have a quarter where they have some sort of maybe one off expense and EPS growth only goes to 10%. So even though the long term growth remains intact, the market's likely going to punish that business's stock price. So in the short term, this doesn't really matter to me, but my mistakes occur when I completely miss the mark on my EPS growth rates. And therefore the stock price rerates significantly downwards and the chances of it going back up become very, very unknown. So I'd like to shift gears and discuss my thoughts on the distinction between absolute and relative performance.

既然我的目标是每五年让投资组合翻倍，所以我其实不太关心相对表现或整体指数。它们与我想要实现的目标完全无关。指数对我唯一真正的作用是展示我正在尝试之事的机会成本。因此，当我考虑要与哪个指数进行比较时，问题纯粹是心理层面的——我在审视自己的回报与指数回报时，是否引入了某种导致决策失误的偏见？

Since my goal is to double my portfolio every five years, I really don't care much about the relative performance or indexes in general. They're completely irrelevant to what I'm trying to achieve. The only real function an index serves me is to show the opportunity cost of what I'm trying to do. So the problem for me when I was looking at which index to compare myself was purely psychological. Am I examining my return and the return of an index without introducing some sort of bias that causes me to make a mistake?

这很难说。我的一个变通方法是每季度只检查一次投资组合表现。这样我就不会像几乎所有对冲基金那样执着于季度性跑赢指数。接下来关于指数的问题在于选择哪个基准——由于我持有的美股极少且全球配置合理，我认为与加拿大或全球指数比较可能最合适。

It's hard to say. One workaround I have is to check my portfolio performance only once a quarter. This way, I don't obsess about trying to beat an index quarterly, which is what nearly every hedge fund is trying to do. The next problem that arose for me when considering the index was just which one to use. Since I own very few US stocks and I'm reasonably globally diversified, I thought comparing them to maybe a Canadian or global index made the most sense.

然而在与几位知名投资者交流后，我的观点发生了转变。既然标普500是多数优秀投资者使用的主要基准，我认为它也是最适合衡量我个人业绩的指数。我投资哲学的另一个核心是以企业主而非交易员或投机者的心态投资。在我看来，每支股票都代表对企业的真实所有权，我对此过程极为审慎。

However, my perspective has shifted after speaking with several notable investors. So since the S and P 500 is the primary benchmark that most good investors use for comparison, I think it's the most suitable index which to compare my own results as well. The next part of my investing philosophy is that I invest like a business owner, not a trader or a speculator. Every stock that I own, in my mind, represents a real ownership and a share of a business. And I don't take that process lightly.

我会假想管理我资金的是我熟识的亲密伙伴。这固然可能产生偏见，但我的首要目标是投资于信任的人，并在问题不可避免地出现时给予他们改进的机会。本期节目后续我会讨论给不同企业的'自由度'——根据多种因素这个尺度会变化。这种思维方式的关键在于帮助我坚守复利型企业。经过对持仓股票的深思熟虑，这确实是终极目标。

I try to imagine the people managing my money are close associates who I know personally. This can create biases, sure, but my primary goal is to invest in people I trust and give them a chance to make improvements when things inevitably go sideways. I'll discuss the leash I give to certain companies later in this episode as it varies in length based on a few factors. The point of my thinking this way is that it helps me just hold onto compounders. After giving considerable thought to the stocks that I keep and what I like to do with them, this is really the ultimate goal.

让投资组合中的股票持续产生复利。企业主思维将帮助我坚守这些企业。比如若朋友或熟人有个绝妙创意，我决定投资后，绝不会因他们遭遇任何轻微逆风就弃船。经营困境本就是商业常态，我宁愿避免过度反应，也不愿仓促放弃那些只是经历短暂困难的公司。正如赛斯·卡拉曼所言：投资是经济学与心理学的交叉点。

Have stocks in my portfolio that can continue to compound. The business owner's mindset will help me stick with those businesses. So if I had a friend for instance, or an acquaintance with an excellent idea, and I decided to invest in them, I'm not going to just jump ship at the slightest hint of any type of headwind or problem that they encounter. Headwinds are just part of business, and I'd rather focus on avoiding any overreactions to headwinds than acting too quickly and then moving on from a company that was just going through something that was very, very temporary in nature. So Seth Klarman said, investing is the intersection of economics and psychology.

成功投资者做得很少，但做得极好。这正是我努力效仿的投资方式。虽然可能有活跃期，但我的常态应是不作为。另一种思考角度是：现在做的哪些事可能导致我在明年卖出？我更倾向于找到能持有多年的企业。

Successful investors do very few things, but do them well. This is how I strive to emulate my investing approach. While I may have periods of higher activity, my default should be inactivity. And the other way to think about this is what am I doing now that is causing me to potentially sell in the next year? I prefer to find businesses that I can hold for a multi year time period.

如果我总想卖出股票，只可能有两个原因：要么我没能找到足够抵御经济波动的企业，要么找到的企业无法抵御竞争。对我而言，投资组合中的所有成败责任全在于我。若标准太宽松，就可能因企业未能提升内在价值而想卖出——但这完全是自身问题，与市场无关。

So if I'm constantly wanting to sell stocks, that means one of two things. So first, I'm just not doing a good enough job of finding businesses that are resilient to the economy, or I'm just finding businesses that aren't resilient to its competition. And to me, I completely hold responsibility for everything that's in my portfolio. If I'm too lenient, then chances are that I will want to sell stocks because they aren't doing well enough in terms of improving their intrinsic value. But that's all on me and not on the market.

归根结底，我需要调整思维方式以避免恐慌性抛售，我认为这个问题在重大调整和下跌期间会严重影响市场上绝大多数投资者。所有企业，即便是最优秀的，都经历过显著的回撤。伯克希尔、亚马逊和微软在成为改变人生的多倍股过程中，都曾出现大幅下跌。自1990年以来，伯克希尔有过340%的跌幅，亚马逊自1997年以来则经历了六次50%的回撤。

What it comes down to is trying to engineer my thinking to avoid panic selling, which is a problem that I think infects very, very large swaths of the market during big corrections and downswings. All businesses, even the best ones, experienced significant drawdowns. Berkshire, Amazon, and Microsoft have all had significant drawdowns on their way to becoming life changing multibaggers. So Berkshire has had 340% drawdown since 1990. Amazon has had six fifty percent drawdown since 1997.

微软自1990年以来也有过440%的跌幅。因此，找到这样的企业极其罕见。所以，只要我持有的公司有可能在未来三十年持续复利增长，我会竭尽全力将其保留在我的投资组合中。当你采用企业主的思维方式时，一个重大转变是股价变得不那么重要了。这是投资者必须规避的陷阱之一。

And Microsoft has had 440% drawdown since 1990. So it's incredibly rare to find businesses like these. So if there's even a chance that I hold one of these businesses that can compound for the next, you know, three decades, I will gladly do everything I can do to keep that business in my portfolio. So a major perspective shift that occurs when you adopt a business owner's mentality is that the share price becomes a lot less interesting. This is one of the landmines that investors must navigate.

目前我持有一家企业，在分析其基本面后，我无法理解市场为何对其如此轻视。虽然不便透露公司名称，但自从我买入后，其过去十二个月的每股收益从2美元增至5.5美元，股价却几乎未动，市盈率从28倍降至10倍。

I have a business in my portfolio now that upon examining the company's fundamentals, I cannot fathom why the market is treating it with such disdain. So I won't name the business, but here's what happened since I've bought it. So the trailing twelve month EPS has gone from $2 to $5.50. The stock price has not budged much in either direction. And the PE multiple has dropped from 28 to 10.

有时我对这家企业感到困扰，因为市场似乎完全无意合理估值。每当需要资金时，我总会考虑减持它。但当我看到每股收益的增长，就会思考：如果不存在股价这个指标，我会如何看待这家企业？这样一想，只要它保持良好增长且没有迹象表明会停滞，我绝不可能出售这项资产。

So I have problems with this business at times because it just appears to me that the market has no interest in valuing the business properly. I can't tell you how many times I've needed capital. And when I think of a business that I need to cut, this business comes to mind. But when I really think about the appreciation in the earnings per share, I just think about how I would perceive this business if the stock price didn't exist. And when I think of it that way, there's just no chance I'd be trying to sell that asset if it's growing well and nothing is telling me that it won't continue to grow well.

企业主的另一个特质是为波动做好计划而非被动反应。我习惯以清晰的未来两三年发展预期投资企业，然后持续跟踪经营状况。如果预期每股收益年增15%而实际达成，即便市场恐慌导致股价下跌，也不改变企业正按计划达成或超越目标的事实。

So another thing that business owners do is plan for volatility and not react to it. So I like to go into a business with a clear thesis of what could happen over the next two to three years. Then I just track what's happening in the business. If I think EPS will grow at 15% per year and the following year it grows at 15%, then it's just job well done. And just because the market is in a panic and that stock price decreases, it doesn't take away from the fact that my business is doing exactly what it needs to do in order to meet or exceed my benchmarks.

我投资哲学的下一部分是关于分类方法。我将投资分为两类：第一类是优质企业，第二类是微型股转折点企业。优质企业始终占据组合的主要部分，因为它们最有可能实现资本的长期复利增长。

Now the next part of my investing philosophy is how I categorize my investments. So I use two specific categories. The first one is a bucket that I called quality businesses. And the second one is a bucket I called my micro cap inflection point businesses. So quality businesses will always make up the bulk of my portfolio simply because these are the companies that I think have the best chances of compounding my capital over a long period of time.

截至2025年8月18日，这部分约占我组合的63%。对此类企业，我关注三个关键点：第一，具备可持续的竞争优势，使企业能多年甚至数十年以超过我最低要求的利润率增长；第二，管理层才能出众且与股东利益一致，持有大量股份；第三，多年投资资本回报率超过15%。

As of 08/18/2025, this section comprises about 63 of my portfolio. So in this part of my portfolio, I look for three keys. The first one, the presence of a competitive advantage remote, which allows the business to continue growing profitably over multiple years and hopefully decades above my hurdle rates. Number two, a talented management team that is aligned with shareholders and owns a substantial amount of shares. And number three, returns on invested capital exceeding 15% for multi year time periods.

让我更详细地逐一分析这些内容，因为其中有很多细微差别。在我看来，所有企业都处于质量光谱上，有些质量低劣，有些则品质卓越。但更重要的是企业在光谱上的移动方向——一个中等甚至低质量的企业，如果正在向高质量端攀升，实际上仍可能成为绝佳投资。

So let me go through each of these in a little more detail because there's a lot of nuance here. So to me, all businesses are on a spectrum of quality. Some are of low quality while others are of high quality. More importantly, however, is just what direction a company is moving on that spectrum. A business of medium or even low quality can actually still be a great investment if it's moving up the quality spectrum.

而原本高质量的企业若在光谱上向下滑落，也可能变成糟糕的投资。这与市场周期类似，你需要清晰判断企业的发展方向：是在改进、停滞还是走向错误方向？这类问题能帮助我决定，当需要资金、释放现金或单纯优化投资组合时，哪些企业应该被剔除。因此竞争优势与质量密不可分。

And a business that is of high quality can still be a poor investment if it's moving down the spectrum. So similar to market cycles, you should have a clear idea of the direction a business is heading. Is it improving, stagnant, or headed in the wrong direction? These types of questions help me understand and determine which businesses I can cut if I need capital, want to free up cash, or just need to remove a portfolio for quality of life reasons. So competitive advantage is deeply ingrained in quality.

更优质的企业拥有更宽的护城河和更强的竞争优势。但我认为我的企业并非真正坚不可摧，某些护城河确实比其他的更牢固。只要我清楚这些护城河的现状——是在扩张还是收缩，我就不会轻易出售这个类别中的企业。

Higher quality companies will have wider moats and better competitive advantages. But I don't think my businesses have truly impenetrable moats. Some of my businesses have stronger moats than others. As long as I know what these moats are and whether they're expanding or contracting, I don't sell the businesses in this bucket very easily.

我们稍事休息，听听今日赞助商的信息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

是否注意到精明投资者总会对冲尾部风险，却几乎从不谈论金融压制？这是个令人不安的事实：无论你如何谨慎构建投资组合，只要资金规则可能一夜突变，你就处于危险中。问问银行账户被冻结的加拿大卡车司机、汇款被国有银行截留的古巴家庭，或是数十个威权国家中目睹毕生积蓄在恶性通胀中蒸发的民众吧——这些绝非孤立事件。

Ever notice how smart investors hedge against tail risk, but almost never talk about financial repression? Here's the uncomfortable truth. It doesn't matter how careful you build your portfolio because if the rules around your money can change overnight, you're vulnerable. Just ask the Canadian truckers whose bank accounts were frozen or Cuban families whose remittances were hijacked by state banks or citizens in dozens of authoritarian countries watching their life savings evaporate under hyperinflation. These aren't isolated incidents.

这是全球性现象的一部分。正因如此，人权基金会发布《金融自由报告》周刊，追踪政府如何将货币武器化来控制民众，以及比特币如何帮助人们抵抗金融压制。如果你关注健全货币、个人主权和财务自由，这份报告是必读材料——我个人订阅后获益良多。免费注册请访问financialfreedomreport.org。

They're part of a global pattern. That's why the Human Rights Foundation publishes the Financial Freedom Report, a weekly newsletter that tracks how governments weaponize money to control people and how Bitcoin is helping individuals resist financial repression. If you care about sound money, personal sovereignty, and financial freedom, HRF's financial freedom report is essential reading. This is a report that I'm personally subscribed to and learn a ton from. Sign up for free at financialfreedomreport.org.

再次重申：financialfreedomreport.org。真正的精明投资者不只盯着美联储，更在观察世界动向。

That's financialfreedomreport.org. Smart investors don't just watch the Fed, they watch the world.

初创企业行动迅速。借助AI，它们的产品上市速度更快，更早吸引企业买家。但大单交易会带来更大的安全和合规要求。SOC2认证有时并不足够。恰当的安全措施能促成交易，也可能毁掉交易。

Plan Startups move fast. And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner. But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements. A SOC two isn't always enough. The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但哪位创始人或工程师能抽身从公司建设中分心？Vanta的AI和自动化让大单准备在数日内轻松完成。Vanta持续监控合规状态，确保未来交易永不受阻。此外，Vanta随您成长，全程提供所需支持。面对AI驱动的法规和买家期望变化，Vanta精准掌握需求节点，为您打造最快、最便捷的达标路径。

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company? Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days. And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked. Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

因此，严肃的初创企业都选择Vanta早期筑牢安全防线。听众专享优惠：访问vanta.com/billionaires立减1000美元。重复一遍：vanta.com/billionaires享千元优惠。Clay听着，如果你像我一样痴迷理财，就需要实时追踪净资产的好工具。这就是为什么我要兴奋地介绍本期节目赞助商Kubera。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta. Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires. That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off. Clay Listen, if you're a money nerd like me, then you need an easy way to track your net worth in real time. And that's why I'm thrilled to tell you about today's show sponsor, Kubera.

我试用过各类此类应用，Kubera无疑是我找到的最佳选择。它能整合我所有银行账户、投资账户和私募投资，提供清晰的实时资产全景视图。其他应用的常见问题是账户频繁断连或根本无法接入，难以满足我的宏观财务概览需求。这不仅是了解当前资产状况，更是规划未来走向。Kubera有个超酷的'快进'功能。

I've tried all sorts of different apps for this, and Kubera is definitely the best one I could find. It links in all my bank accounts, investment accounts, and private investments, and it gives me a clear real time overview of everything I own. One of the issues I found with other apps is that my accounts constantly get disconnected or I'm not able to get them connected at all to give me that big picture financial overview that I need. And it's not just about tracking where I am today, it's about understanding where I'm headed. So Kubara has this really cool feature called the fast forward feature.

它能模拟不同人生场景：比如五年后若收入达到某水平，我的净资产将如何变化？或明年购房支付首付后，五到二十年后的净资产会是多少？这样我总能清晰把握未来，确保持续实现财务目标。再次感谢Kubera的赞助，我本人就是其忠实用户。

It lets me model out different life scenarios so I can say, if I'm making this much money in five years, how much will my net worth change over time? Or if I decide to buy a house next year and put this much money down, what will my net worth be in five, ten, twenty years down the line? That way I always have a clear picture of what's next to ensure I continue to hit my financial goals. Again, I'm thrilled to have Kubera as a sponsor. I use their app all the time.

若您想全面掌控个人财富，首年订阅可享100美元优惠，请访问kubera.com/wsb。重申：kubera.com/wsb享优惠。

If you want to stay on top of your wealth, you can get $100 off your first year subscription at kubera.com/wsb. That's kubera.com/wsb.

好的，节目继续。

All right. Back to the show.

管理是一门极其复杂的课题，我在评估管理团队时有一整套检查清单。我会看管理层是优先考虑短期还是长期利润，关注增长前景以及未来增长是否需要大量股权稀释或债务。我还会观察管理者的透明度——他们是否只在顺境中透明，而在逆境时躲躲藏藏？

So management is a deeply complex subject and I have an entire checklist I look at when I'm evaluating a management team. So I'm looking at whether management prioritizes short term or long term profits. I'm looking at growth and if future growth is going to require heavy dilution or debt. I'm looking at how transparent managers are. Are they transparent in only good times and then, you know, climb up in bad times?

我会审视管理层的诚信度是否无可置疑，考察他们的薪酬是否公平合理。同时评估管理层与股东利益的一致性，这通常意味着我要查看内部人持股情况。

I'm looking at the integrity of management and seeing if it's unquestionable or not. I'm looking at their compensation. Is it fair? Is it reasonable? I'm looking at how well management's aligned with shareholders, which usually means I'm looking at insider ownership.

比如他们是仅通过期权增持股份，还是在公开市场买入？我会研究他们过往业绩记录的强度——无论是当前业务的成绩，还是刚加入企业时从之前业务带来的履历。此外还观察他们是否追求曝光度，是否热衷媒体宣传。

You know, are they only building up their stake via options or are they buying on the open market? I'm looking at how strong their historical track record is. That's with the business that they're currently in, or if they just joined that business, that's looking at the track record that they've had from another business. Then I'm looking at things like whether they seek the limelight or avoid it. Do they love the press?

他们喜欢成为焦点吗？还是完全不愿与媒体打交道？接着我会分析资本配置能力：他们是否遵循纪律进行资本配置？会不会仅仅因为持有现金就随意花钱？

Do they love attention? Or do they just not want anything to do with the press? Then I'm looking at capital allocation. Know, are they disciplined capital allocators? Are they spending money just because they have cash?

或是耐心等待高回报机会出现才部署资金？当然我也会长期跟踪薪资和期权情况，确保任何增长都有正当理由。最后重申内部人持股——即使高管持股量很小，但如果占其净资产比例很大，就很有意义。

Or are they patiently waiting for the right high return opportunity to arrive to deploy capital? And then, you know, I'm obviously looking at salary and options over a period of time and making sure that any increases are warranted. And lastly, just insider ownership. Once again, even an executive can have a very small amount of insider ownership. But if that's a large percentage of his net worth, well, then that's pretty meaningful.

反观若经理人持股量看似很大，却仅占其净资产的1%，这同样能说明很多问题。通过回答这些问题积累知识库，能有效帮助我判断是否值得与管理团队合作。某些检查项显然更具分量，比如管理诚信绝对是首要标准，我在这方面绝不妥协。

Whereas even if a manager has a pretty large ownership, if that just represents 1% of their net worth, then that tells you a lot of information. Now I like to build up my knowledge base by answering these questions, which really helps me determine if a management team is worth partnering with or not. Some checklist items definitely carry more weight than others. Management integrity is just number one. I would never budge an inch on that.

如果管理层历史上出现过任何诚信瑕疵，我会直接放弃投资以省去麻烦。不幸的是，我曾投资过一些对管理层诚信存疑的企业，原以为能掌控局面，后续却发现更多问题。虽然想过暂时持有观望，但最终意识到：我对这个管理团队的信任度，根本不足以让我有增持的意愿。

If management has a history of showing any crack in integrity, I'm just going to take a pass, just make it easy on myself. I've unfortunately invested in the past where I've had some questions about management integrity. And I thought I kind of had a handle on it, then found out more information that put them into question. And I wondered, okay, well, maybe I could just hold the business and see what happens. But I realized, you know, I just don't trust this management team enough to ever really wanna add more shares.

所以我刚刚全部卖掉了它们，因为如果未来我不想增持股份，持有这家公司就毫无意义。最后是资本效率的问题。这是一个量化指标，能真正帮助我理解一家企业是否有效地将资本转化为利润。我最好的公司往往拥有波动很小的资本回报率(ROIC)，理想情况下，它们实际上是在逐步提升的。

So I just sold them all because if I don't wanna add more shares in the future, there's just no point in holding the business. And lastly, there's the capital efficiency aspect. So this is a quantitative metric that really helps me understand whether a business is effective at converting capital into profits. So my best companies tend to have ROICs that just don't fluctuate very much. And ideally, they're actually gradually increasing.

因此ROIC的提升是公司拥有竞争护城河的强烈信号。这意味着与行业或竞争对手相比，该企业能以更少的投入资本获得更高利润。如果一家公司没有护城河，当你审视这个指标时往往一目了然。所以我不仅要求这个数值要高，还需要足够的样本量——在多年个位数低增长后突然有一年达到显著数字，这在我的优质企业标准里是远远不够的。

So an increase in ROIC is a strong signal that a company has a competitive moat. It means that the business can earn higher profits on an invested capital compared to its industry or to competitors. If a company has no moat, it's very often incredibly obvious just when you examine this metric. So not only do I want a high number here, but I also want a decent sample size. One year of achieving a significant number following multiple years of low single digits just isn't going to suffice in my quality bucket.

现在我们来看第二类：处于转折点的微型股企业。我的考察标准差异不大，依然是三个要点：首先，连续两季度营收和盈利增长超过25%；其次同样重要，需要与股东利益一致且持有大量股份的优秀管理团队。

So now we move to bucket number two, which is a micro cap inflection point businesses. So there aren't too many differences in what I look at. So I'm looking at three things again. First, two quarters of revenue and earnings growth above 25%. Then I'm looking exact same thing here, a talented management team that is aligned with shareholders and owns a substantial amount of shares.

第三点是具备高资本回报能力。这里只有第一和最后一点有所不同。第一点是我判断企业是否真正迎来转折的关键。对于这类企业，有时我会允许使用自由现金流代替盈利指标。只要公司现金流合理，且似乎存在利润率持续改善的规模优势，即使尚未实现国际财报准则下的净利润为正，我也愿意投资。

And then three, an ability to earn high returns on invested capital. So only the first and last point here are different. So the first point is how I determine if a business is truly inflecting. I'll sometimes allow for the use of free cash flow instead of earnings on these businesses. If the cash flow of a company makes sense and it seems like they have some sort of scale advantage where margins are continuing to improve, I'm fine investing in a business that isn't IFRS positive net income yet.

这个策略的妙处在于能捕捉到一些杰出的企业。我所有成功的微型股投资都某种程度上符合这个转折点框架。有些公司可能盈利时间更长，或者仅维持一个季度。但观察小企业时，它们常能获得粘性收入——这种收入很可能快速增长，我是说非常快。关于管理层的第二点要求与优质企业标准完全一致。

The beauty of this specific strategy is it can capture some outstanding businesses. All of my micro cap winners have followed this inflection point framework to some degree. Some companies might be profitable for longer or maybe it's just a quarter. But when you're looking at a small business, they can often get, you know, sticky revenue, which is likely to grow quickly and I mean very quick. The second point on management is the exact same as the high quality bucket.

在转折点企业中，最显著的特征之一就是CEO往往也是创始人。由于公司规模小，创始人通常持有大量股权。管理层持股50%甚至更高的情况并不罕见。虽然多数情况下我会担忧内部持股超50%的企业存在私有化风险，但对微型股而言这种担忧较小——它们之所以还在交易所，正是因为需要融资，这降低了未来私有化的可能性。因此管理层是微型股投资逻辑的核心。

In the inflection point businesses, one of the strongest areas is that the CEO is often the founder of the business. Since the company is small, it also means the founder usually has a significant stake in the business. It's not unusual to find management teams with stakes of 50% or even higher in a business. And while many businesses I would actually fear if they had inside ownership above 50% because you have that going private risk, It's just not as much of a concern in my opinion for microcaps because a lot of them are microcaps on an exchange specifically because they require funding, which prevents them in the future from going private. So management is crucial to the investing hypothesis of microcaps.

由于微型股仍处于成长初期，管理层将成为企业成功的终极指标。巴菲特喜欢那种傻子都能经营的公司，但你在微型股领域基本找不到这种企业。这个阶段的企业往往非常脆弱，如果没有能快速适应并迅速找到盈利途径的领导者，公司可能直接破产或被收购。即便是出色的产品或服务，也可能被扔进垃圾桶或被大竞争对手吞并。

Since microcaps are still in their early stages of growth, management will be the ultimate indicator of the business's success. So Buffett likes companies that, you know, even an idiot could run, but you just don't really find these in microcaps. The businesses are often much more fragile at this stage. And if you don't have a leader who can adapt fast and find ways to make profits quickly, the company can simply go bankrupt or get taken over. Even an excellent product or service can just be thrown into the waste bucket or swallowed up by a large competitor.

一个商业模式已高度成熟且系统化的大型企业，不会遭遇微型企业那些棘手问题。尽管管理层对成熟企业仍具影响力，但由于整套运营体系已建立完善，其重要性相对降低。关于资本效率的最后一点，我仍会对所有转折点企业进行计算，但这类数据往往参考价值有限——因为它们通常正从亏损转向盈利。由于许多转折点企业在买入前一两个季度仍处于亏损状态，即便经过调整，ROIC（投资回报率）也呈负数。但随着业务拐点出现，这一数值可能快速改善。

A more mature business that already has a significant portion of its business model created and systematized won't encounter these painful problems that a microcap will. So while management can still carry a more mature business, I think they matter a lot less due to all the systems that are now in place. As for the final point on capital efficiency here, so I still calculate it on all my inflection points, but this is more of a situation where the numbers don't tell you as much because they're usually going from a state where they're going from negative to positive. So since a lot of these inflection point businesses are running at a loss, maybe a quarter or two before I buy them, ROIC is going to be a negative number even when I'm making adjustments. But as they inflect, that number can rapidly improve.

因此我必须思考的核心问题是：改善空间还有多大？以及回归原状的概率有多高？这些正是我在评估微型企业转折点时试图解答的。现在我想阐述投资这两类截然不同企业的逻辑：优质企业是我青睐的长期持有标的，它们通常表现卓越且稳定。

So the main question that I have to ask is, you know, how much more can it improve and what are the odds that it reverts back? Those are the questions that I try to answer on my micro cap inflection point businesses. So I'd like to review my reasoning behind investing in these two very distinct and different buckets. So the quality businesses are the ones that I like, which I don't necessarily need to have high turnover in. These are businesses that tend to perform exceptionally well and very consistently.

虽然偶尔会有波折，但基本无需频繁关注。考虑卖出这类企业从来不是出于担忧，而是估值考量——因为它们往往变得过于昂贵。关于卖出标准我会在后文详述，目前可以说这类企业市值通常在10亿至100亿美元之间。

While they may have some hiccups along the way, I don't have to think about them very often. And the only thought of really ever selling them doesn't come out of fear. It's more of a valuation question because these businesses tend to get expensive. I don't want to get too much into my selling criteria yet as I'll be covering that more later in the episode. But you know, the businesses in this category are generally priced between 1,000,000,000 and 10,000,000,000.

我其实没有严格的市值上限，只是偏好小型公司因其成长跑道更长。而投资微型转折点企业的魅力在于，经常能发现净利润增长率达50%、75%甚至100%的公司。我尤其喜欢在机构资金涌入前早期发现它们——这些企业往往未被市场关注，能以惊人速度成长，却仍被当作低速增长的成熟企业来估值。

I don't actually have a cap on what it needs to be. I just prefer smaller companies as I feel they have a longer runway. Now for my micro cap inflection point businesses, I like these because it's not unusual to find companies that literally grow at fifty, seventy five, 100% on the bottom line. And I love seeing these businesses very early before institutions start piling in. So the businesses are often so under the radar that they can grow quite rapidly and they still trade at multiples that make you think they're just a mature business growing at the same rate as the economy.

我指的是那些可能实现25%以上增长，但远期市盈率仅为个位数的企业。这种错误定价实在令人难以抗拒，平均市值低于1亿美元（通常远低于）。微型企业的持仓周转率必然更高，因为其中许多根本不值得长期持有——虽然我期望它们能达标，但在这方面不能固执己见。

I'm talking about businesses that are likely to grow 25% or more and are trading at mid single digit forward multiples. So the mispricings are just too juicy for me to ignore, and that's why I invest in these businesses. And just so you know, the market cap average for these is below 100,000,000 and often much below 100,000,000. So the turnover was gonna be a lot higher in my micro caps because many of these businesses inside of them just don't deserve to be held for very long. I want them to deserve to be held, but I can't be stubborn on that side of things.

对微型股坚持'永不卖出'的心态无异于自寻死路。优质企业与微型转折点企业的平均持有周期也存在显著差异：在我的十大赢家中，七家是优质企业，三家是微型转折点企业。但转折点企业中仅有两家持有不足一年，持有最长的截至2025年10月将满两年。

Stubbornness and a no sell mentality towards microcaps is just a death sentence. There's also going to be a difference in my average holding periods between my quality businesses and microcap inflection point businesses. So out of my 10 biggest winners, seven are quality businesses and three are micro cap inflection point businesses. However, of the inflection point businesses, only two have been held for less than a year. And the one that's been in my portfolio the longest is coming up on two years as of October 2025.

从优质企业来看，仅一家持有五年，三家三年，两家两年，三家一年。这表明转折点企业价格波动迅速，但往往不适合长期持有。优质企业或许年化回报较低，却能持续提供稳定收益。接下来我将探讨卖出决策的逻辑。

From the quality business standpoint, there's only one that I've held for five years. I've held three for three years and two for two years and three for one year. So this indicates that the inflection point businesses, you know, they move very quickly in price, but they're not always worth holding for extended periods of time. The quality businesses are those that may have lower returns per annum, but I think can sustain a decent return for a longer period compared to my micro cap inflection point businesses. So now that I've shared more about my holding periods, I'd like to discuss why I'd sell a position.

现在我的卖出标准相当明确。我卖出股票只有三个原因。首先是我发现了风险回报比更优的投资机会。其次是股价已透支未来五到十年的涨幅。第三是我的投资逻辑被证伪。

Now my sell criteria is pretty straightforward. I sell for just one of three reasons. So first is that I find a better opportunity with a better risk reward profile. The second is that the price runs five to ten years ahead. And third is that my thesis is broken.

其中最常见的卖出原因就是最后一点——我对这家公司失去了兴趣。或者我的投资逻辑完全错误。但必须承认，这种情况往往最难决断，因为我常犯的毛病就是之前提到的过度固执。这种固执对投资微盘股尤其有害，但据我观察，即便投资大盘股也同样会造成严重损失。

Now, the most common reason I sell that last point is that I just lose interest in the business. Alternatively, it's just that I'm wrong in the thesis and it completely falls apart. But, you know, this is always just a tough reason to sell because one issue that I've had is just being too stubborn as I mentioned here. So being stubborn is just so detrimental, especially on micro caps. But based on my observations, it's really damaging even if you do it on large caps.

我投资生涯中三大最惨痛的亏损都源于彻底错误的投资逻辑，分别是Cannabis Capital、Bosch Health和阿里巴巴。所以我始终在警惕可能摧毁投资逻辑的因素，试图尽早发现问题。遗憾的是，对于Bosch和阿里巴巴，我意识到逻辑缺陷时为时已晚。

My three most significant losses I've taken in investing were businesses that I was just completely wrong on the thesis. So these three would be cannabis capital, Bosch Health, and Alibaba. So, you know, thesis killers are something that I'm constantly searching for. Just trying to ensure that I can try to catch them early. Unfortunately, with Bosch and Alibaba, I was slow to realize that my thesis was flawed.

而Kanatomus则是遭遇了灾难性季度财报，我和其他投资者都对其能否恢复既往盈利水平充满疑虑。最终我不得不忍痛清仓，因为不愿继续等待观望。事后证明这三个卖出决策都正确，因为它们的经营状况都未见实质性改善。至于因股价透支多年涨幅而卖出...

With Kanatomus, it just had an abysmal quarter. And along with other investors, I just had such a high degree of uncertainty about whether they would ever return to their previous profit levels. As a result, I just unfortunately had to sell because I wasn't willing to wait and see what happened. Selling all three of these has turned out to be the right decision as none of them in my view has improved significantly. As for selling, you know, it's usually if the price gets pulled forward multiple years.

这个思路源自莫尼什·帕伯莱的估值模型，即只在企业估值严重过高时卖出优质公司。他从未明确定义'严重过高'的标准，我认为这本来就没有统一答案。后来我借鉴了伊恩·卡塞尔的框架，自创了一套混合评估体系来判断卖出时机。幸运的是，至今我还没遇到符合这种情况的持股。

So this is a variation of Monish Pabrais mental model, which suggests that selling a quality business only when it's egregiously overvalued. He's never shared exactly what that means, and I don't think there's really a singular definition. So I actually ended up taking a lesson from Ian Cassel and created kind of a hybrid framework to observe just how far forward the stock price needs to be pulled in order for me to want to sell. Now, luckily for me, I haven't yet experienced a stock that has entered this scenario. So I haven't had the opportunity to use it.

但我持有最久且获利最丰的Aritzia目前就面临这种考量。过去一年我常纠结是否该卖出，因为其涨幅确实透支了未来，但尚未达到五年标准。所以尽管知道糟糕财报可能引发大跌，我仍选择持有。有些投资者可能采用三年标准，这完全取决于个人偏好。

But one stock I do own that I've owned the longest and has been a major winner for me is Aritzia. And it's a business where, you know, over the last year or so, I've constantly wondered if I need to sell just because the returns are definitely pulled forward, but they just doesn't quite get to that five plus year mark. So I end up holding it even though I know that a really bad quarter could drop the share price up pretty considerably. But you know, some investors might use a shorter mark such as, you know, three years. And I don't think there's anything wrong with that or any method that you want to use.

我采用五到十年标准的原因在于，这能帮助我守住那些具备持续复利潜力的股票。人们很容易在股票翻倍或三倍后就想着卖出，以为能轻松找到下一个标的。但现实是优质替代品并不好找。如果现有企业仍有广阔发展空间，很可能再次实现倍数增长。相比换仓到陌生企业，我更愿意持有自己深度理解的公司。

So my justification for using five to ten years is just that it helps me hold onto stocks that I think can continue compounding. I think it's really easy to just sell a business that has doubled or tripled in price with a thought process that you're just going to go out and easily find another business that can do the exact same thing. However, the reality I found is that it's just not that easy to find a replacement. And if the business that you hold has an excellent runway, there's pretty good chances that it can double or triple in value again. And I'm a lot more comfortable holding businesses that I already understand very well rather than replacing them with something that I know less well.

接下来是卖出，因为我在别处发现了更好的机会。这大概是我最常见的卖出理由。我会根据对未来收益和内在价值的评估，将我的企业从最具吸引力到最不具吸引力进行排序。如果投资组合中有企业在利润增长方面表现不佳，它就会被排到最后。查理·芒格说过，对普通人而言，你已拥有的最佳事物应当成为衡量标准。

So next is selling because I find better opportunities elsewhere. This is probably my most common reason for selling. I rank my businesses from most attractive to least attractive based on my assessment of their future gains and intrinsic value. If I have a business in my portfolio that is just not performing well in terms of increasing its profits, then it goes to the bottom of the pile. Charlie Munger said, for an ordinary individual, the best thing you already have should be your measuring stick.

这意味着，如果我能找到与现有最佳投资相当或更优的投资，我就会将其加入组合，并剔除那些跟不上的。我的整个卖出流程旨在对抗两种强大的认知偏差：确认偏误和沉没成本谬误。对抗确认偏误的最佳工具是持续寻找自己论点中的错误；而避免沉没成本谬误的最佳方法是忽略买入成本，只关注企业基本面。

So that means if I can find investments that maybe meet or exceed the best things I already have, then I'll add them to the portfolio and remove the ones that can't keep up. My entire selling process is designed to counteract very powerful biases. Confirmation bias and the sunk cost fallacy. So my best tool for commenting confirmation bias is just to continually seek out where I might be wrong in my thesis. My best tool for avoiding the sunk cost fallacy is to ignore what I paid for something and focus solely on the fundamentals of the business.

我会果断割舍亏损标的，对此毫无心理障碍。虽然看着持仓亏损很难受，但我喜欢从机会成本的角度思考：是等待亏损标的翻盘，还是卖出后加仓我认为表现卓越的标的？答案通常是后者。

I will definitely let go of my losers. I have no problem doing that. And while it's tough to see that you've lost a position, I like to look at things in terms of opportunity cost. So if I have a loser, do I, you know, wait for that loser to turn or do I just sell it and add to a position that I think is already doing an exceptional job? The answer is usually the latter.

现在谈谈组合管理。这是我过去两年投资理念变化最大的领域。最初买股票时，我发现市场波动极快，若想加仓就必须从一开始就建立较大仓位——要知道那是在2020和2021年，标普500含股息再投资的年回报分别高达18%和29%，稍有迟疑股价就会迅速脱离买入区间。

Let's now move on to portfolio management. So this is an area of my investing that has undergone considerable evolution over the last two years. When I first started buying stocks, I was finding that the markets would move just so fast that if I wanted to add to my position, I had to make my starter position pretty significant just right from the get go. So you have to remember this was in 2020 and 2021, which were years when the S and P five 100 was earning very high returns eighteen percent and twenty twenty nine percent respectively with dividends reinvested. So you know, you just had to move quickly on these names or else the price would just very quickly move away from you.

虽然这种现象不会消失，但我当时管理组合时充满焦虑，总怕错过加仓机会，而非耐心守在自己的能力圈内。比如Aritzia这笔投资，我本应建立更小的初始仓位，花时间了解业务后再逐步加仓。虽然最终结果不错，但更多是运气使然——初始仓位按成本计占10%，但随着资产规模扩大，实际占比已降至约2%。

Now, I don't think this is an occurrence that will probably ever stop, but I was managing my portfolio a lot. Think out of fear that I wouldn't be able to add to a position rather than having patience and just leaning into my circle of competence. What I mean by that is that there are probably just too many positions that I was buying that I should have taken a much smaller initial position in and taken some time to learn about the business and then add to it over time. So Aritzia was a business that I thought I played very well, but it was probably a lot due to luck and circumstance. So my initial position in Aritzia was still about 10% by cost basis, but given the small amount of capital that I was investing, that 10% became a lot smaller, you know, closer to, I think 2% as my assets started scaling up.

有段时间我以为再也没机会加仓Aritzia，但幸运的是企业持续改善。尽管股价经历大幅回调，我仍能持续增持，使其成为按成本和绝对值计算都极其重要的持仓。在TIP首次访谈中（链接见节目备注），Paul Andriola让我看到了仓位管理的新视角：与其在下跌时摊低成本，不如在赢家上涨时逐步加仓。

So for a long time, I thought I'd just never get a chance to add to my Aritzia position again. But fortunately, the business continued to improve. And despite some significant corrections in the share price, I was able to continue adding to it, and it's become a very, very large position for me both in terms of cost basis and absolute value. So after speaking with Paul Andriola on my very first interview with TIP, which I'll link in the show notes, he really just opened my eyes to a different way of looking at position sizing. And this was to average up on your winners instead of just averaging down when prices pulled back.

Paul会在股价上涨时加仓，这与传统价值投资者的做法大相径庭。虽然我仍喜欢在低迷时买入，但对持续表现出色的标的进行向上加仓同样意义重大。因此我将自己的流程分为这两种策略。

So Paul would add to positions as they actually increased in price. This is a very, very considerable variation from what most value investors do and what I had been indoctrinated into beforehand. So the traditional value investor tends to add a position that are in the doldrums. While I still like doing that, there is a lot to be said about averaging up in a position that is outperforming and continuing to do so. So I'll separate my process here into the two buckets.

让我们从小盘股的拐点开始讨论，因为这正是我刚才关于保罗的话题。小盘股的主要优势在于它们通常增长迅速且价格相对低廉。因此，我喜欢用PEG比率来评估小盘股，因为这一策略本质上是建立在增长基础上的。对于不熟悉PEG比率的人来说，它是市盈增长比率。假设一家企业的市盈率为20，增长率为20%，那么它的PEG就是1（20除以20），这意味着这是一个相当不错的PEG比率，虽然不算特别低。

Let's start with the micro cap inflection point because that's what I was just talking about regarding Paul. So the primary advantage of micro caps is that they often grow rapidly and they're relatively inexpensive. So I like using PEG ratios for my micro caps as a strategy is fundamentally built on growth. So for anyone who's unfamiliar with the PEG ratio, it's the price to earnings to growth ratio. So let's say a business has a PE ratio of 20 and is growing at 20%, then its peg is just one, which is 20 divided by 20, which means that it's a pretty solid peg ratio, not super low, though.

数值越低越好，越高则越差。通常低于1被视为有吸引力，高于1则吸引力较低。我们来看一个例子：假设你能找到一家下一年每股收益（EPS）将增长50%的企业。这是一家小盘股，当前每股收益仅为10美分，交易价格是过去收益的4倍，即40美分。

So the lower the value, the better, and the higher, the worse. You generally look for below one as being attractive and above one as being less attractive. So let's go over an example here. Let's say that you can pick up a business that's gonna grow its EPS by 50% in the next year. Let's say it's a micro cap, so it's got an EPS of just 10¢, and it currently trades at just four times its trailing earnings for a price of 40¢.

展望一年后，预计EPS约为15美分。正如我所说，PEG低于1是非常好的，但对于许多小盘股，我实际上更倾向于寻找0.5的比率，因为这个数字能提供显著的安全边际。在这个例子中，该公司的远期PEG仅为0.1。

So looking a year ahead, EPS is expected to be about 15¢. Generally, like I said, a peg below one is very good. Although with a lot of the micro caps, I actually like looking for 0.5. Specifically because that number offers a significant margin of safety as well. So in this instance, the company has a forward peg of only 0.1.

这简直便宜得离谱。即使我们对增长预估有50%的误差，远期PEG也仅为0.2。显然，这远低于我们寻找的0.5标准。现在假设在一次强劲的财报后，股价从40美分涨到50美分，证实了我们的投资逻辑正在兑现。虽然价格涨幅不小，但此时增持未必是坏主意。

So this is outrageously cheap. And even if we're incorrect about our growth estimates by 50%, the forward peg would still just be 0.2. Now obviously this is significantly below that 0.5 number that we're searching for. Now let's say the business increases in price from 40¢ to 50¢ after a very strong earnings report and just confirming that our thesis is playing out. That's obviously a pretty big move up in price, but adding here is not necessarily a bad idea.

如果我们的逻辑成立，该企业的股价可能介于3.75美元到7.50美元之间。我喜欢用现实检验这些数字：这家企业真的能以25或50倍市盈率交易吗？你需要参考同行业其他公司，判断这样的估值是否现实。有时并不现实，这意味着你可能需要假设其市盈率更接近同行水平。

If our thesis is playing out, it means the shares of the business could be priced anywhere between, you know, $3.75 and $7.50. I like to provide myself with a reality check on these numbers. Can the business actually trade at 25 or 50 times earnings? You'll need to refer to other companies in the industry to see if trading for those numbers is realistic or not. Sometimes it's not, meaning you might have to assume it trades closer to a PE that's more in line with its peers.

关键在于，无论我是以40美分、50美分甚至1美元买入，差别并不大，因为我仍将获得极其可观的回报。这一原则同样适用于我的优质企业投资。但两者存在差异：小盘股往往会出现短暂的盈利爆发，但没有任何企业能永远保持50%的EPS增长。

The point here is, you know, whether I buy the stock at 40¢, 50¢, or even a dollar, it just doesn't make that big of a difference because I'm still going to make an incredibly adequate return. And the same principle holds true for my quality businesses as well. However, there's kind of a difference between the two. So microcaps obviously experience these short flash in the pan improvements in earnings. But you know, no business is going to sustain 50% EPS growth forever.

小盘股的常见情况是，它们开发出一款创新产品或服务，上市后迅速热销。但这些优势可能仅维持几个季度就会被竞争侵蚀。而我的优质企业通常运营时间更长，拥有诸多强劲优势，使我相信它们未来多年仍能持续发展。以Terravest为例，这家企业自我收购以来表现优异，但也存在一个重大问题。

What often happens in microcaps is that they develop an innovative new product or service that hits the market and just sells like wildfire. However, these advantages may only last a few quarters before competitive forces erode them. In my quality businesses, they have been operating for a significantly longer period of time and possess a lot of strong advantages that indicate to me that they're likely to continue doing so for many years, hopefully into the future. So a business like Terravest is a good example. The business has been an exceptional outperformer for me since I acquired it, but it has had one significant issue.

关键在于它几乎总是被显著高估，至少在视觉上是这样。这意味着如果我以94美元的平均成本买入，我将需要等待非常、非常长的时间才能增持仓位。而且你知道吗？我可能永远都没有机会再以那个价格补仓了。因此，对于这些类似于微型股的优质企业，你必须考虑它们的增长潜力。

And that's that it's nearly always significantly overpriced, at least optically. So that means if I buy at my average cost basis, which was $94 I'm gonna be waiting a very, very long time to ever add to my position. And you know what? I may never get the opportunity to fill that position at that price again. So with these quality businesses similar to the micro cap ones, you have to consider their growth potential.

如果一家企业不错，而你以25倍市盈率买入，那么你可以等待看看未来市盈率是否会降至20倍。那样的话，虽然绝对价格上我支付更多，但从市盈率倍数来看却更便宜。这就是我增持仓位的方式。由于我持有多家CRO收购方股票，我可以更灵活地运用这一策略。因为我的大多数CRO收购方内生增长不高，它们主要通过收购实现增长。

If a business is decent and you're buying it at 25 times earnings, then you can just wait and see if the business maybe gets down to 20 times earnings in the future. And in that case, I'm paying more on an absolute basis, sure, but I'm paying less on a PE multiple basis. So to me, that's just how you add to positions. Since I own several CRO acquirers, I can be a bit more creative with this strategy. Since most of my CRO acquirers don't have very high organic growth, they tend to grow primarily through acquisitions.

因此，在某些特定时间点会出现独特的套利机会。

As a result, there are specific points in time when unique arbitrage opportunities arise.

William 我们稍事休息，听听今天的赞助商信息。

William Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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这就是Shopify，包括我在内的众多商家选择它是有原因的。因为Shopify让一切变得更简单，从结账到创建自己的店面。Shopify是全球数百万企业背后的商业平台，占美国所有电子商务的10%。从美泰（Mattel）和Gymshark这样的家喻户晓品牌，到像我这样刚刚起步的品牌。而且Shopify让你能使用地球上转化率最高的结账系统。

That's Shopify, and there's a reason so many businesses, including mine, sell with it. Because Shopify makes everything easier, from checkout to creating your own storefront. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses all around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US. From household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands like mine that are still getting started. And Shopify gives you access to the best converting checkout on the planet.

让Shopify助你将宏大的商业构想变为现实，之后你会感谢我的。立即注册享受每月1美元的试用，今天就开始在shopify.com/wsb上销售吧。网址是shopify.com/wsb。

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好了，回到节目。

Alright. Back to the show.

所以我喜欢的连续收购者套利机会是，当连续收购者进行一项未被市场充分反映的收购时。假设他们进行了一项收购，将在未来一年内使其每股收益增加20%。通常发生的情况是，收购宣布后股价会上涨，有时会超过20%的涨幅，有时则不及。市场很少能完全准确预测。这些交易总是存在风险和隐藏的上升空间。

So the serial acquirer arbitrage that I like is when a serial acquirer makes an acquisition that isn't adequately reflected in the market. Let's say they make an acquisition that will increase their earnings per share by 20% over the next year. What often happens is that after the acquisition is announced, the shares will rise, sometimes overshooting that 20% mark and sometimes undershooting it. The market rarely gets it entirely right. Now there's always a risk and a hidden upside in these deals.

显然这其中涉及很多不确定性。然而，有时市场对这类交易如此不确定，以至于创造了各种有趣的机会。我之前提到过，也许25倍的市盈率对这些连续收购者来说是一个不错的价格。所以有时会发生的情况是，企业进行收购后，股价可能只上涨5%。但如果我展望我认为的收益，股价本应上涨远超过5%，而市盈率实际上却被压缩下降。

So there's obviously a lot of uncertainty that's involved. However, sometimes the market is just so uncertain about these types of deals that it creates all sorts of interesting opportunities. So I mentioned earlier that perhaps the 25 times earnings is a decent price for one of these serial acquirers. So sometimes what happens is the business will make an acquisition and maybe the price goes up just 5%. However, if I look forward to what I think earnings will be, the share price should have gone up much more than 5% and the multiple actually ends up getting compressed downwards.

既然如此，这可能是增持股票的绝佳机会。作为投资组合管理的推论，我想谈谈我偏好的持股数量。在我整个股票投资生涯中，我通常持有8到13个仓位。莫尼什·帕伯莱曾提到他喜欢'10乘10'法则，即10个仓位每个仓位成本基础约10%。这正是我构建投资理念的基础。

In that case, that can be a very, very good opportunity to add more shares. As a corollary to portfolio management, I'd like to discuss the amount of holdings that I prefer to hold. So throughout my investing career in equities, I've held between eight and thirteen positions. Monish Pabrai has said that he likes this 10 by 10 approach, which is, you know, 10 positions at about a 10% cost basis per position. And this is generally what I built my philosophy on.

但如果发现其他优质机会，我也不介意超过10个仓位。我会根据投资所属类别来划分仓位规模。对于优质企业，如果公司表现卓越且持续超预期，我会毫不犹豫将其建仓至10%成本基础。正如之前所说，由于许多企业能持续多年增长，初始仓位较小也没关系，随着对公司了解加深可逐步加仓。我通常在优质组合中初始建仓比例为2%到3%。

But I also don't mind going higher than 10 if I think there's some good opportunities out there. So I also break down my position sizes by cost basis specific to which bucket that investment is in. So for my quality businesses, I have no problem taking a position to 10% cost basis if the business is really excellent and it's just continuing to exceed my expectations. As I mentioned earlier, when entering positions, since many of these businesses can compound for multiple years, it's okay if a position starts small and then grows as I become more and more comfortable and knowledgeable about the company. I typically allocate an opening position in the quality portfolio of about two to 3%.

这为我提供了良好的起点，若企业表现优异还有充足加仓空间。对于微市值转折点企业，我采取更保守策略。由于这类企业经营业绩波动较大，股价也更为震荡。因此我不会投入过多资金，微市值仓位的最大成本基础通常控制在5%到6%。

This gives me a decent starting point with plenty of room to continuing to add if the business warrants it. For my microcap inflection points, I take it much more conservative approach. So since these businesses tend to be more volatile in terms of operating results, they also tend to be more volatile in terms of their share price. So for that reason, I don't put as much capital into these ideas. A full size micro cap position is usually around five to 6% by cost basis at max.

初始建仓通常仅为1%，待企业验证我的投资论点后再逐步加仓。关于仓位绝对上限，我不介意单只股票超过20%。我曾有个仓位达到28%，这是有史以来最高记录。我从不减持赢家股票。

My opening position is usually just 1%. Then I add as the business confirms my thesis. When it comes down to what I'll allow a position to reach on an absolute basis, I have no issues with my positions exceeding 20%. I think I've had one position reach 28%, which was the largest that I've ever seen. And I don't trim winners.

我知道减持是个热门话题，但在我看来，如果你的团队里有迈克尔·乔丹，你不会在他carry全场时换他下场。长期投资中，组合里最大的仓位往往也是内在价值增长最多的企业。只要这些企业能持续提升内在价值，我就会长期持有。目前我组合前七大仓位中，仅有一只表现低于预期。这些年化收益率分别为83%、217%、31%、5%、30%、51%和20%。

I know this topic of trimming is kind of a hot topic, but the way I see it, if you have Michael Jordan on your team, you don't bench him when he's carrying your entire team. If you invest long enough, the businesses that are the largest in your portfolio are also probably going to be the businesses that have increased the most in intrinsic value. And I want those businesses in my portfolio for as long as they can compound their intrinsic value. When I review the top seven positions in my portfolio today on an absolute basis, only one has underperformed as expected. So the total returns per annum of those five are 83%, 217%, 31%, 5%, 30%, 51%, and 20%.

虽然不指望某些高收益率能长期持续，但这些企业实际上仍在显著改善。因此我相信未来几年其股价将大幅上涨。随着经验积累，我越来越理解'能力圈'这个概念。最初接触时觉得难以把握，但作为全能型投资者实践越多，就越能体会其内涵与重要性。

While I don't expect the returns per annum of some of those larger numbers to continue for extended periods, I think that those businesses are still actually improving quite significantly. Therefore, I believe their share prices will be materially higher in the next few years. One area of investing that I've come to understand more and more as I gain experience is the concept of a circle of competence. So it's a concept that when I first heard it was kind of challenging for me to just wrap my head around. However, as I've invested more and more as a generalist, I think I've begun to internalize what it means and its importance.

莫尼什·帕伯莱常被问及什么是能力圈？他的回答总是'提问即答案'——这个回答对他有意义，但对我这样的普通人却难以理解。我主要通过两个途径理解这个概念：首先是通过反思自己的错误及其成因；其次是阅读《思维模型》第一卷时，觉得该书解析得非常透彻。

So Monish Pabrai is often asked, you know, what is a circle of competence? And his answer has always been to ask the question is to answer it, which I feel was an answer that made sense to him, but never really made much sense to a simpleton like me. So where I began understanding it was from two sources. So first and foremost was just my own reflections on the mistakes that I've made and why I made them. Then when I read the first volume of the great mental models, I felt they did a really good job of breaking it down.

关于这本书，我在TIP七四零期节目中详细讨论过，我会在节目说明中附上链接。现在让我概述书中提到的能力圈框架。这是一个简单的四部分框架，提出了几个问题。第一个问题是：你的能力圈是什么？接下来是：你如何知道自己拥有一个能力圈？

So I discussed this book in detail on TIP seven forty, which I'll link in the show notes. Now let me outline the framework for the circle of competence from that book. It's a simple four part framework that asks a couple questions. So the first one is what is your circle of competence? Next is how do you know when you have one?

然后是如何建立和维护能力圈？最后是如何在能力圈之外运作？这些问题非常精妙。当你用这个框架审视多年来的投资决策时，你会清晰地区分已知与未知领域。比如我早前提过，我的重大亏损大多发生在商业逻辑被证伪的企业中。

Then it's how do you build and maintain one? And lastly, how do you operate outside of one? So these questions are just great. And when you start looking at investments and decisions that you've made over the years, it becomes very evident what you know and what you don't know using this exact framework. For instance, I mentioned earlier that most of my considerable losses have occurred in businesses where the thesis was broken.

而每个失败案例都部分归因于最后那个问题——如何在能力圈之外运作。我经常跨出能力圈投资，因此必须确保自己有能力且愿意深入学习新行业。当涉足陌生领域时，我需要掌握基础知识，并寻找该领域真正的专家或可靠资源来汲取智慧。当然，主要在自己能力圈内运作是最稳妥的。

And in every single one of them, was partly because of the final point there, which is how do you operate outside of your circle of competence. I often operate outside of my circle competence. So I must ensure that I'm capable and willing to learn a great deal to invest into a new business. When I'm learning about something outside of my circle competence, I have to ensure that I understand the basics and find other people or sources who are highly competent in those areas so that I can learn more from them and draw wisdom from them. Well, I think it's excellent to operate primarily within your circle of competence.

但主动拓展边界同样重要。关键是在扩大能力圈时避免承担不当风险。这就是投资的艺术性所在——你无法系统性地判断某个项目是处于能力圈核心还是边缘地带。我思考过的另一个维度是学习意愿：有些行业我确信自己能学到足以做出明智决策的水平。

It's also essential to just push yourself to expand. You just want to make sure that as you're expanding your circle competence, you aren't taking undue risk. This is where the art part of investing comes into play because there's just no way of systematically understanding when something is smack dab in the middle of your circle of competence or operating somewhere outside of it. Another area of the circle of competence that I've spent time thinking about is the inclination to learn about something. There are some businesses I've looked into where I feel like I'm capable of learning about them to a level necessary to make an informed investment.

但同时也清楚这需要大量时间投入。你必须决定是否愿意为学习新知付出这样的代价。没有足够时间或兴趣也无可厚非，但若在知识不完备的情况下投资陌生领域又不愿补足认知，就是在冒险。

But I also know that it's going to require a significant time commitment. You have to decide if you're willing to invest that time into learning something. You may or may not have the time or desire to do it and that's okay. Just realize that you should take that into account if you are investing in something outside of your circle of competence. If you were to buy a stock with incomplete knowledge and didn't want to put in the effort to learn more, you're putting yourself at risk.

接下来我想讨论投资地域分布。作为加拿大居民，我自然有本土偏好。但初入投资时我立志全球化布局，曾持有以色列、瑞典、波兰、日本和中国等北美以外地区的企业。不同地域的投资结果好坏参半。

So the next topic that I'd like to discuss is the geographies of where I invest in. So I live in Canada, so of course I have a home bias. But when I first started investing, wanted to invest globally. So I held businesses from all over the world outside of North America in places such as Israel, Sweden, Poland, Japan, and China. I've experienced a mix of success and failure in specific geographies.

唯一能确定的是：我绝不会再投资中国。其他国家仍在我的考虑范围内。我认为投资者至少应该关注海外市场以避免本土偏见。不过当所在国本身充满优质机会时，跨国投资就显得不那么必要了。我偏爱本国市场的主要原因，还是理解最为透彻。

The only absolute that I can say is that I'll never invest in China again. The rest of those countries are fair game. I think investors should at least look outside of their own country to avoid home country bias. But you know, when you're in a country that has just so many good opportunities, it becomes a lot less important to look outside of your country. So the thing that I like about my home country is that I just understand it best.

对于我不了解的领域，我也可以寻求他人的帮助来理解。如果我想投资海外国家，我就无法获得同样的便利。这就是为什么投资于本国既可能对你有利，也可能不利。你不想忽视其他所有机会，但也需要确保投资于自己理解的事物。假设我正在比较一家位于加拿大的SaaS企业和一家同类型但位于日本的企业。

And for areas that I don't understand, I also have access to others who can help me understand it. If I wanted to invest in countries abroad, I'm just not going to have that same access. And this is why investing in your home country is a concept that, you know, can kind of work for you or against you. You don't want to ignore everything else out there, but you also want to ensure that you can invest in things that you understand. Let's say I'm looking at a SaaS business that's in Canada and a SaaS business of the exact same type that's in Japan.

我很可能会比理解日本企业更理解加拿大的那家。如果我曾在日本生活过半辈子，情况或许会不同。所以这是非常个人化的选择，取决于你愿意花多少精力去了解外国及其文化、政府、商业等。我投资哲学的另一个重要方面是如何衡量表现。

There's a very good chance I'm probably going to understand the Canadian one a lot better than I'll understand the Japanese one. If I had spent half my life maybe living in Japan, then those odds would change. So it's a very individual thing. And it depends on how much you're willing to learn about foreign countries, their culture, their government, their businesses, etcetera. Another important aspect of my investing philosophy is how I measure performance.

在我最喜欢的关于巴菲特的书籍之一《巴菲特投资组合》中，罗伯特·哈格斯特罗姆出色地解释了为何使用回报率未必是衡量表现的最佳方式。他指出，许多长期业绩优异的投资者在短期内都可能跑输指数。如果我们用价格等表现指标来衡量，可能会得出不准确的结论。那么巴菲特究竟用什么标准？沃伦·巴菲特曾说，查理和我让可流通股票的运营成果——而非每日甚至每年的报价——告诉我们投资是否成功。

So in one of my favorite books on Buffett, the Warren Buffett portfolio, Robert Hagstrom does a superb job of explaining why using returns isn't necessarily the best way to measure performance. Hegstrom makes the point that several great investors with excellent long term track records have underperformed the index for short periods of time. So if we measure them on performance metrics like price, it can yield an inaccurate output. So what exactly does Buffett use? Warren Buffett once said, Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by their operating results, not their daily or even yearly price quotations, whether our investments are successful.

市场可能会暂时忽视企业的成功，但最终会予以确认。巴菲特这里的关键词是运营成果，通常指利润或类似所有者收益的指标。如果当前利润是1000万，预计三年后将达到2000万，那么股价极有可能比现在高得多。那么现实中我如何实践这一点？

The market may ignore business success for a while, but it will eventually confirm it. So the key words that Buffett used there are operating results. This usually means profits or something like owner's earnings. If profits are 10,000,000 today and they're expected to be 20,000,000 in three years, there's a very good chance that the stock price will be significantly higher than it is today. So how do I do this in reality?

我喜欢使用所有者收益这一巴菲特提出的指标，它能展示企业稳态下的现金流生成能力。最简便的计算方式是用经营活动现金流减去维持性资本支出。如果你在查询维持性资本支出时遇到困难，这很正常。这种情况下，你可以用折旧费用作为替代指标。或者像我从菲尔·汤那里学到的，直接用常规资本支出的50%作为维持性资本支出。

I like to use something called owner's earnings, which is Buffett's metric for showing the steady state cash flow generation of a business. You can find it most easily by using cash from operations and subtracting maintenance CapEx. For those of you who are trying to search for maintenance CapEx and having some trouble, that's not unusual. So in that case, you might just use the depreciation expense as a proxy. Or as I learned from Phil Town, you could just use 50% of just normal CapEx for maintenance CapEx.

我的做法是计算所有持仓企业的所有者收益，分析这个数字过去一年的增长情况，并预估未来一年的数值。如果所有者收益持续以超过15%门槛率的速度增长，就意味着企业表现良好，无需过分担忧。专注于企业的运营表现，帮助我把注意力放在正确的事情上。

So what I like to do is calculate owner's earnings for all the businesses that I have. I'll examine how that number has grown in the last year and I'll provide an approximation for where I think it's going to be in the next year. If owner's earnings is continuing to rise above that for 15% hurdle rate, then that means the business is performing well and there's just not that much to worry about. Focusing on the operating performance of my companies has helped me keep my focus on the right things.

在我们所处的信息时代

In the age of information that we

生活在当下，我们很容易被各种噪音所困扰。我尝试避免噪音的另一种方式是通过营造一个鼓励不作为的环境。许多投资者，无论是专业还是散户，他们的环境设置都在促使他们采取行动。他们可能有大量的视觉刺激，比如多台显示器展示着图表，而更多的图表和屏幕意味着更多的噪音。

live in, it's so easy to get caught up in noise. Another way I try to avoid noise is through engineering an environment that fosters inaction. Many investors, both professional and retail have environments that are set up to encourage them towards action. They might have things like large amounts of visual stimuli. They might have multiple monitors showing them charts and, you know, more charts and more screens just means more noise.

更多的噪音是激励自己采取更多行动而非减少的好方法。然后是噪音和警报，这些可能表现为电视上不断播放的财经新闻，提供持续的刺激，让你对新的机会产生好奇，并质疑你已经做出的决定。随着众多应用程序的出现，个人投资者会实时收到关于股票表现的警报和通知。此外，还有社交和心理压力。

And more noise is a great way to motivate yourself to more action, not less. Then you have noise and alerts. These might show up as things such as constant financial news on TV, which provides a continuous stimuli, making you wonder about new opportunities that are out there and question the decisions that you've already made. With the numerous apps available, individual investors receive constant alerts and notifications that inform them of stock performance in real time. Then there's social and psychological pressures.

像Twitter、Discord、Reddit和留言板这样的地方，人们喜欢分享信息。但这些信息的质量缺乏过滤。如果你所在的社区不断用排行榜之类的东西轰炸你，这会促使你采取原本不会采取的行动。最后是易用性问题。一些券商将交易过程游戏化，进一步增加了采取行动的需求。

Things like Twitter, Discord, and Reddit, and message boards are places where people love sharing information. But there isn't much of a filter on the quality of that information. So if you're in communities that constantly bombard you with things like leaderboards, it prompts you to take actions that you might not have taken otherwise. And lastly is ease of use problems. Some brokerages have kind of gamified the trading process, which further boosts the need for action.

既然我们现在只需点击几下按钮就能买卖，这消除了投资者过去需要通过经纪人执行交易的许多关键障碍。因此，了解到自己对某些刺激有弱点，我尝试创建环境来对抗上述四种触发因素。我可能处理得最好的是视觉刺激。我几乎从不看财经电视，唯一看到的时候是有人在社交媒体上分享片段给我。

Since we can now buy and sell at the click of just a few buttons, they removes a lot of these key trading barriers that investors once had from having to call a broker to execute a trade. So knowing that I have my weaknesses to certain stimuli, I've tried to create my environment to counteract the four triggers above. The one I probably handle the best is visual stimuli. I simply just don't watch financial TV like ever. The only time I see it is if someone shares a clip with me on social media.

除此之外，我不收看因为它对我没有任何价值。至于警报，我个人认为这不是一个大问题。我经常收到警报，尤其是关于我的业务，告诉我价格是否大幅下降。这让我能迅速动用现金。没有这些警报，我可能无法在价格恢复正常时快速下单。

But other than that, I just don't tune in because it doesn't provide anything of value to me. Now, when it comes to alerts, I personally don't find this to be a big issue for myself. I get alerts all the time, especially on my businesses, which tell me, you know, whether prices have decreased by a considerable amount. This allows me to put my cash to work really quickly. So without these alerts, I may not be able to place an order fast enough once the price normalizes.

根据我的观察，这对我影响不大，但我认为它对其他投资者的危害远大于我。在社交和心理领域，这是一场非常非常艰难的战斗。我从Twitter和Discord等地方获得了大量好想法和信息。我没有参与任何买入信号服务或类似的东西，我认为这对投资者非常有害。但Twitter和Discord上也有很多噪音。

So from my observations just doesn't affect me very much, but I think that it has much more harmful impacts on other investors than it does on me. Now when you look at the social and psychological realm, it's a very, very hard battle to fight. So I receive a significant amount of great ideas and information from places like Twitter and Discord. I'm not participating in any of these, you know, buy signaling services or any of the stuff like that, which I think is very harmful for investors. But with Twitter and Discord, there's also a lot of noise on there.

但也有方法应对。首先，在Twitter和Discord上，如果有人说了荒谬的话，你可以静音或屏蔽他们。这样你就不会受到他们无益观点的影响。还有一种我认为非常重要的心理转变：你必须自己做决定。

But there are also ways to combat it. First, you know, on both Twitter and Discord, if someone says something ridiculous, you can just mute or block them. And that way you won't be affected by their takes that just aren't helpful. There's also a psychological shift that I think is really important. You have to make your own decisions.

你不能依赖他人为你做决定。你需要自己筛选接收到的信息，并判断是否需要采取行动。我认为你获取的信息中99%都不需要任何行动。接下来我要遵循的哲学原则关乎性情与智商。我首先承认自己的智商并不超群。

You can't rely on others to make decisions for you. It's up to you to filter that information that comes in and decide whether you need to take any action with it. And I think 99% of information that you get doesn't require any action. The next philosophical principle I follow regards temperament and IQ. I would be the first to admit that I don't have an above average IQ.

因此我的任何优势都必须通过获得行为优势来实现。我想今天已经和你讨论了很多我试图获取这种优势的方法。幸运的是，我赞同沃伦·巴菲特的观点——投资成功与智商无关。当你具备普通智力后，真正需要的是能控制投资冲动的性情，这种冲动往往让他人陷入困境。

So any advantage that I have has had to come from gaining a behavioral edge. I think I've discussed a lot of what I do to attempt to get that behavioral edge with you today. And lucky for me, I agree with Warren Buffett's statement. Success in investing doesn't correlate with IQ. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.

所以我通过尽可能保持理性来获取行为优势。为此，你必须定期审视自己的思维方式。由于确认偏误的存在，人们很容易做出决定后就再也不去反思这个决定或想法是否正确。或者它可能在某个时期是正确的，但在另一个时期却不再适用。每当我们买入新股票时，本质上是在告诉自己这个投资逻辑成立，且承担的风险值得潜在回报。

So I try to gain a behavioral edge by, you know, just staying as rational as I possibly can. To achieve this, you have to conduct regular audits on your thinking. It's just so easy with the power of confirmation bias to just come to a decision, then never revisit whether that decision or idea was the right one to make. Or maybe it was the right one to make at one period of time, but not the right one to make at another period of time. Whenever we buy a new stock, we're basically telling ourselves that the thesis makes sense and that the risk we are taking in purchasing the stock is worth the potential reward.

但你必须运用贝叶斯更新等技术持续修正观点。比如我持有的企业每季度发布财报时，都会更新对其三年概率加权回报的预估。如果某企业连续多个季度表现优异，我可能会调降悲观或中性情景的权重，增加乐观情景的配比。若企业面临使未来更不确定的问题，则会从乐观或中性观点中抽调部分权重转移到悲观预期。

However, you must constantly update your thinking using techniques such as Bayesian updating. So every quarter that one of my businesses releases earnings, I'm updating my three year probability weighted return on those businesses. So let's say we're looking at a business and they put in multiple great quarters in a row. Then I might take points away from the bear or base case and reallocate them to the bull case. Or if a business is maybe going through some issues that are making the future more uncertain, I'll take some points away from the bull or base thesis and reallocate them to the bear thesis.

这个方法完美吗？当然不。但它仍是我们拥有的最佳工具之一。硅谷未来学家保罗·萨福说过：'坚定主张， weakly held（弱化坚持）'。我觉得这句话值得时刻铭记。

Is this an imperfect method? Yes. But it's still one of the best tools that we have. So Silicon Valley futurist and forecaster Paul Safo once said, strong opinions, weakly held. I think this is a great mantra to remind myself of continuously.

我绝不会为薄弱的观点投入资金。必须有强有力的见解才能支撑投资决策，否则根本不值得行动。但同时，当事实变化时，我必须愿意放弃原有观点。犯错本身并不可耻。

I would never put money behind a weak opinion. I need to have strong opinions to justify an investment. Otherwise, it's just not simply worth making. But at the same time, I must be willing to let go of views once the facts change. There's nothing wrong with being wrong.

那些因自尊心过强而拒绝承认错误并采取行动的投资者，在投资界注定无法长久生存。这自然引出了下个原则——源自查理·芒格的'愚蠢规避术'。要避免常见愚蠢行为，可通过多种途径：首先深入学习芒格总结的心理误判模型；其次观察他人失败原因并引以为戒；最后反省自身缺陷，避免重蹈覆辙。

Investors who have just too much of an ego to admit and act when they are wrong won't last very long in the investing world, which leads nicely into the following principle, which is that of stupidity reduction, which I cloned from Charlie Munger. So when we look at avoiding standard stupidities, there are multiple ways to go about it. First, we can use Charlie's psychological misjudgments and internalize them to a high degree. Second, we can observe the failures of others, why they did it, and then avoid copying them. And then third, we can observe our own shortcomings, why we did it, and then avoid trying to make them again.

现在，我认为你不应该只专注于其中一点。你可能需要同时关注这三点。如果你能专注于第一和第二点，你就不会冒亏钱的风险。但你要知道，如果你必须像我一样通过犯大错来学习，学费会非常昂贵。这些教训将是痛苦而深刻的，但也可能是对你影响最为深远的。

Now, I don't think you should focus on just one of these. You should probably focus on all three simultaneously. If you can focus on points one and two, you won't risk losing money. But you know, if you have to learn big lessons for making your own mistakes like I do, the tuition is very steep. The lessons will be painful and vivid, but there'll also be the lessons that probably have the most significant impact on you.

避免常见愚蠢行为最重要的应用场景之一，就是明白我不需要多么聪明才能实现财务目标。我的业务范围涵盖平凡行业，如信托制造商、折扣杂货店、女性零售商、水处理专家，以及快餐连锁加盟商。然而，我也拥有一些可能令人兴奋的业务，比如我的垂直市场软件公司Topicus和Lumine，或是另一家专注于外墙翻新软件应用的VMS企业。尽管对他人而言或许无趣，但它们以各种方式让我感到振奋。而其他投资者可能热衷于投资硅谷不断创新的新技术之类的事物。

One of the most significant use cases for avoiding standard stupidity is understanding that I don't need to be brilliant to achieve my financial goals. My businesses range from mundane industries such as trust manufacturers, discount grocery stores, women's retailers, water treatment specialists, and a quick serve restaurant franchiser. However, I also have businesses that some people might find exciting, such as my vertical market software businesses like Topicus and Lumine, or another VMS business that specializes in software use for exterior home renovations. While it may not be exciting to others, they're thrilling in one way or another to me. Where other investors might get excited about investing in things, you know, like new technology that is constantly being innovated on in Silicon Valley.

那些根本提不起我的兴趣。改变世界固然伟大，但投资纯粹的概念股是我毫无意愿去做的事。不过，我确实喜欢投资那些运用技术来增强已有良好业务的企业。我的许多公司正在利用自动化等技术快速提高效率、降低成本。

That just doesn't excite me. Well, I think changing the world is great. Investing in pure story stocks is just something that I don't have any desire to do. I do however like investing in businesses that utilize technology to enhance an already good business. Many of my companies are utilizing technology such as automation to increase efficiency and reduce costs rapidly.

这才让我兴奋。如今许多传统企业仍在工作流程中使用过时的技术。一旦竞争对手通过自动化等手段在利润空间上碾压它们，这些企业就会被淘汰。约翰迪尔就是个正确行事的绝佳范例——这家成立于1837年的公司是美国最古老的设备制造商之一。

That excites me. Many legacy businesses today are just using outdated technology in their workflows. They're the ones that are going be left behind once their competitors can crush them on the margins by leveraging things such as automation. John Deere is an excellent example of a business doing things correctly. So John Deere was founded way back in 1837, and they're one of the oldest equipment manufacturers in America.

然而他们在跨越多个世纪的创新中表现非凡：先是钢铁犁等机械创新，接着是大型农业设备。如今他们正从纯硬件业务转向运用新技术提升产品价值主张。农业领域关注他们近两百年，比如2022年他们就推出了全自动拖拉机。

However, they've done a remarkable job of innovating over multiple centuries. First with the mechanical innovations such as a steel plow, and then with large scale farming equipment. But now they're moving from pure hardware business and actually utilizing new technology to improve the value proposition of their product. They already have the attention of the farming industry, which has used their equipment for nearly two hundred years. For instance, in 2022, they unveiled a fully autonomous tractor.

现在他们可以告诉农民甚至无需亲自驾驶农机，这显然腾出大量时间做其他事。我欣赏这种模式——许多企业收集海量数据后，既能重新利用这些数据向忠实客户变现，也能通过自动化提升制造效率。最让我欣赏的是，某些行业中竞争对手根本无力承担自动化成本来抗衡。

Now they can go out and, you know, just tell a farmer that they don't even need to drive their vehicle, which obviously frees up a lot of time to do other things. I like this model. Many businesses have been gathering tons of data, which they can then repurpose and monetize to their loyal customers. Alternatively, they can utilize automation to enhance the efficiency of their manufacturing capabilities. What I like so much about this is that in some businesses, it's just unlikely that competitors will have the means to afford automation to compete with these other companies.

因此，作为能负担自动化的大企业，你的利润率将远超竞争对手，使其难以与你抗衡。这类情形才真正令我振奋。虽然我的投资并非为了颠覆性创新，但我热衷于寻找那些已盈利的理性企业——它们能运用自动化等技术强化运营，构筑更宽的护城河。对我而言，这不是要智胜他人，而是理解当代企业如何获得竞争优势。

So if you're a larger player who can afford it, your margins are going be significantly better than those of your competitors, which are going to make it really hard for them to compete with you. These are the type of situations that really excite me. So while I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel with my investments, I like finding rational businesses that are already turning a profit that can utilize technology such as automation to just really enhance their operations and provide them with a wider moat. To me, this isn't about trying to outsmart people. It's just understanding how businesses in today's age can gain an edge.

今天我想与各位讨论的最后一个话题，是我与其他投资者交流时始终觉得饶有兴趣的——疏忽性错误。我将疏忽性错误分为两类：一是我卖出了本不该卖出的标的；二是我本有能力理解并买入、却最终错过的机会。其中一家我卖出前应更慎重考虑的企业，是名为Gatekeeper Systems的微型股公司。

So the final thing I'd like to discuss with you today is something that I've always found interesting when speaking with other investors and that's mistakes of omission. So I view mistakes of omission in two ways. So first is what have I sold that I probably shouldn't have sold? And second is asking what was I capable of understanding and buying and ultimately took a pass on? So one business that I should have probably given more thought to before selling out of my position was a micro cap called Gatekeeper Systems.

这家公司主要为美国公共交通行业提供视频与数据解决方案。当时我为买入其他标的而出售其股份，但投资逻辑其实并未改变。虽存在季节性波动，但其表现未达我预期水准。最终以52%收益了结，但若持有至今回报会更丰厚——2023年9月以0.33美元购入。

So this business provides video and data solutions to the public transportation industry, mainly in The US. It was a business that I sold to buy something else, but the thesis hadn't really changed. It was a somewhat seasonal business, but it just wasn't wowing me like I thought it should have. I still sold this one for a 52% gain, but I would have done much better if I just held on. I bought the stock for 33¢ in September 2023.

截至2025年8月21日股价已达1.27美元，若持续持有年复合增长率约96%。出售部分原因在于业务季节性，我期待其能获得更多合同动能。尽管公司持续改善，但当时难以判断能否超越我对微型股拐点企业设定的25%门槛回报率。

And as of 08/21/2025, the stock price is a dollar 27. Had I held, I would have had a compound annual growth rate of about 96%. So part of the reason for selling this one was the seasonality of the business. I was hoping that they would get some more momentum in their contract wins. While the company was getting better, it wasn't clear that it would exceed that 25% hurdle rate that I have on my micro cap inflection point businesses.

尽管复盘错失的投资机会令人沮丧，但若时光倒流且仅掌握当时信息，我可能仍会做出相同决策。我研究后放弃的企业包括Kraken Robotics——这家公司向多国海军提供水下成像设备。2023年底以0.65美元价位关注到它。

So even though it sucks to go back and look at what I could have made on that investment had I held on. When I think about it, if I went back in time and had the information that I had at that time, I think I probably still would have made the same decision. So a few businesses that I researched and passed on include Kraken Robotics. So this is a company that sells a variety of underwater imaging equipment to several western navies. So I learned about this business at about 65¢ in late twenty twenty three.

现股价已涨至3.57美元。另一例是Hims & Hers，在推特用户推荐后我曾与TIP智囊团讨论，多位成员深入跟进，我却因时间投入问题放弃。理解该业务需投入30-50小时研究，而约一年前其股价仅十几美元，如今（2025/8/21）已达43美元。

Today it trades for $3.57. Next is Hims and Hers. So I started discussing this with the TIP mastermind community after I'd heard about it from some people on Twitter and a few members on the community really ran with the idea, but I ended up skipping it. For me, it was just a matter of time commitment. I thought I could probably understand it, but I'd have to spend, you know, thirty, forty, fifty hours on the idea.

再如Beware Holdings，主营自行车/叉车等车辆的物联网追踪设备。2023年以0.2美元开始关注，现股价约0.8美元。

I remember looking at it somewhere in the mid teens only about a year or so ago, and it's $43 as of 08/21/2025. Next is Beware Holdings. So they sell internet of things devices that can be attached to vehicles such as bikes and forklifts. And what they do is essentially just track their whereabouts for the owners of those assets. So I started looking at this business around 20¢ in 2023, and today it's approximately 80¢.

最后要提的是KITS Eye Care——垂直整合型眼科电商专家。2023年9月曾在会议上与CEO交谈，对其管理层、公司发展及增长叙事印象深刻。

Last one here I have for you is KITS Eye Care. So this is a business that is a vertically integrated eye care specialist that specializes in e commerce. I got the opportunity to speak with the CEO at a conference. I was very impressed with management, the company and its growth story. This was back in September 2023.

然而，当时公司尚未盈利，所以我选择了放弃。那时的股价是5美元，如今已涨至16.5美元。你看，我错过了无数本该抓住的机会，未来也仍会继续犯这类错误。刚才提到的案例之外，我至少还能再列举五六个。市场上实在有太多值得投资的想法了。

However, the company wasn't yet profitable, so I passed. The share price back then was $5 and today it's $16.50. So, you know, there's tons of oopsie daisies that I've missed and that I should have bought, and I will continue making these errors in the future. So the ones I mentioned, I could probably add another half a dozen. There's just, you know, so many ideas out there.

当你审视足够多的机会时，注定会错过一些赢家。关键在于找出那些你能在合理时间内充分理解的标的。所有这些企业，只要我愿意投入更多时间和精力去研究，本都可以理解的。或者，我本可以基于已有认知先建立1%的仓位，随着对业务了解的深入，再根据其表现是否超出预期来加仓。但说到底，为这些事懊恼并没有太大意义。

And if you look at enough of them, you're going to miss out on a bunch of winners. The key is to figure out what you can understand well enough within a decent period of time. All of these businesses were ones that I think I could have understood if I'd been willing to put more time and effort into understanding them. Or I could have, you know, just started with the knowledge that I did know, taken a 1% position, then added to it as I learned more about the business and observed whether they were outperforming expectations or not. But, you know, at the end of the day, there's not much of a point in beating yourself up over these things.

我更愿意花时间分析失败案例，确保不再重蹈覆辙。如果能通过克服自我破坏倾向来持续提升投资能力，我有信心最终会成为超越平均水平的投资者。这正是我投资理念的核心主题。关于我的投资哲学今天就分享到这里。想继续交流吗？

I'd rather spend more time analyzing my losses and trying to make sure I don't replicate those errors that I've made. If I can continually improve my investing abilities by eliminating self sabotaging tendencies, I'm very confident that I'll ultimately become an above average investor. And that's really the overarching theme of my investing philosophy. So that's all I have for you today on my investing philosophy. Wanna keep the conversation going?

欢迎在Twitter关注@irrationalmrkts，或在LinkedIn搜索Kyle Grieve与我联系。我始终欢迎反馈意见，期待听到您对改进播客体验的建议。感谢收听，下次见。

Follow me on Twitter at irrational m r k t s or connect with me on LinkedIn. Just search for Kyle Grieve. I'm always open to feedback, so feel free to share how I can make the podcast listening experience even better for you. Thanks for listening and see you next time.

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