TIP758：当前市场状况与投资机遇——与Derek Pilecki对话

您正在收听TIP电台的《一点五十》节目。

You're listening one:fifty to TIP.

在今天的节目中，我们再次欢迎德里克·皮莱茨基的到来。德里克是我们最喜爱的财务话题嘉宾，作为鳄鱼资本管理的投资组合经理，他于2008年2月雷曼兄弟倒闭前几周创立了该公司，并创造了我们见过最出色的投资业绩之一。自2008年7月基金成立以来，鳄鱼资本年化复合收益率达21.8%，同期标普500指数仅为11.9%。本次对话中，我们探讨了德里克筛选新投资时追求26%内部收益率的流程、他在今年早些时候关税风波中的操作、沃伦·巴菲特对其投资理念的影响、当前市场中的机遇、美联储降息对经济/银行业/房地产市场的潜在影响，以及他在2023年11月Robinhood股价暴涨13倍前发现的投资价值。

On today's episode, we welcome back Derek Pilecki. Derek is our favorite guest to discuss all things financials as he's the portfolio manager at Gator Capital Management. He launched Gator Capital weeks before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 02/2008, and he has one of the best investment track records I've ever come across. Since the fund's inception in July 2008, Gator Capital has compounded at 21.8% per year versus just 11.9% for the S and P 500 over that same time period. During this conversation, we discussed Derek's process of looking for a potential 26% internal rate of return on new investments in the fund, the moves he made during the tariff tantrum earlier this year, how Warren Buffett influenced his own investment process, the opportunities he's finding in today's market, how he expects the Fed's interest rate cuts to impact the economy, the banking sector, and the real estate market, What Derek saw in Robinhood stock in November 2023 before it increased by over 13 times.

德里克对WEX公司的投资逻辑，以及更多精彩内容。此外，本期节目播出后几周，德里克将加入大师智囊团进行问答互动。若想参与讨论，可通过描述区链接加入候补名单。邀请德里克总是令人欣喜，他对金融领域的洞察无人能及。希望您享受今天与德里克·皮莱茨基的对话。

Derek's investment thesis in WEX Inc and so much more. Also, Derek will be joining Mastermind community for Q and A a few weeks after this episode goes live. If you're interested in sitting in on that discussion, you can join the waitlist for the group using the link in the description. It's always a treat to bring Derek on the show as he knows the financial sector as well as anyone. So with that, I hope you enjoy today's discussion with Derek Pilecki.

自2014年以来，通过超过1.8亿次下载量的沉淀，我们研究金融市场，精读影响白手起家亿万富翁的核心著作。助您保持信息灵通，为意外做好准备。现在有请主持人Play Think。

Since 2014 and through more than 180,000,000 downloads, we've studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Play Think.

欢迎收听《投资者播客》，我是主持人克莱·芬克。今天很高兴再次邀请德里克·哈莱茨基。德里克，欢迎回到节目。

Welcome to The Investor's Podcast. I'm your host, Clay Finck. And today I am happy to welcome back Derek Halecki. Derek, welcome back to the show.

德里克：嗨克莱，很高兴见面。谢谢再次邀请我。

Derek Hey Clay, good to see you. Thanks for having me back.

特雷：我特别期待这次对话，去年那场关于您在2008年2月雷曼兄弟倒闭前几周创立基金的创业故事让我受益匪浅。自上次交流后，您在2024年实现了41%的净费后收益，截至七月又增长21%，看来即将连续三年取得亮眼业绩。不过这对我们可能反而是坏消息——通常几年牛市后，整个市场往往会迎来调整年。

Trey So I've really been looking forward to this conversation as I definitely enjoyed our last discussion about a year ago where you shared your humble beginnings of launching a fund all the way back in 02/2008, just weeks before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Since we last spoke, you rounded out 2024 with a 41% return net of fees. And through July, you were up another 21%. So it's looking like you're well positioned to have three years in a row of really strong performance. That can even tend to be bad news for all of us because usually after a few good years, you tend to see a down year across the entire market.

在我们深入探讨我的问题之前，我想先给你一个机会，就你近期的表现以及当前市场中的一些现象发表看法。

So before we dive into my set of questions here, I'd like to give you a chance just to comment on your recent performance and some of the things that you're seeing in the markets today.

我认为过去三年的关键点在于，我较好地应对了2023年硅谷银行和第一共和银行倒闭事件。当时我减持了区域性银行股，但在它们倒闭后，我又大幅增持了这类股票——通过深入研究全国范围内存款业务稳定的银行，这些股票的估值变得极其低廉。这是过去三年回报的主要驱动力之一。我担心的其实和你担心的问题一样。

I think the story over the last three years is I navigated Silicon Valley and First Republic's failures pretty well in 2023. I was underweight regional banks. After they failed, I drastically increased in my weightings in regional banks, you know, just doing a lot of work on where the deposit franchise is intact across the country, and, you know, the valuations got extremely cheap. So that was one big driver of returns over the last three years. I worry about the same things that you do.

比如连续三年的强劲回报后，这种趋势是否已经结束？或者说市场是否会均值回归？当我观察整体市场时，作为一个旁观者，我认为估值普遍偏高。即使在金融板块内部，摩根大通、前进保险、维萨这些超大市值股票看起来也很昂贵。但另一方面，许多中小市值股票的市盈率仍停留在个位数。

Like, three years of strong returns, you know, is it is it over, or, you know, do we have some reversion to the mean? And when I look at the overall market, I mean, it looks expensive to me, like, generally, just as an observer. And even within the financial sector, I look at the very large cap stocks, JPMorgan, Progressive, Visa. They look expensive to me. But, you know, then when I look at a lot of small mid cap names, they're single digit PE still.

这种分化将如何收场？是大型股表现不佳时中小型股上涨实现均值回归，还是所有股票都下跌但大型股跌幅更大？我并没有确切的答案。目前大量被动资金流入SPY指数基金，所有资金都涌向标普500成分股，而罗素指数成分股已持续多年表现不佳。

And so how does that resolve itself? Like, can these small stocks do well when the big stocks underperform to get reversion to the mean, or will everything go down and the big cap stocks will just go down more than the small stocks? I don't I don't really have a a good answer. I don't know how this seems like we're getting the effect of so many passive flows into the SPY, and all that money is going into the S and P 500 stocks. Have you know, the Russell's lagged for years.

这些中盘股缺乏资金关注且估值低廉。虽然我不知道最终会如何演变，但长期经验告诉我：持有低估值的股票终会获得回报。所以我现在不会看着持仓清单想着'真该卖出这只或那只股票'。

All these mid cap stocks don't really have sponsorship and they have cheap valuations. I don't know how that gets resolved, but I I think over time, I've just gotten comfortable. If I own cheap stocks, good things happen. And so I'm not looking at my portfolio and saying, oh, I wish I could sell this stock. I wish I could sell that stock.

我的待购清单上仍有许多估值诱人的潜力股。虽然无法预知具体走向，但我不会选择逃离市场——尽管大盘股在我看来确实估值过高。

I still have an idea list of things to buy of cheap stocks that look interesting. So I don't know exactly how it's gonna play out, but, you know, I'm not not running for the hills, but large cap stocks look rich to me.

克莱，说得很好。这种策略确实让你获益匪浅——保持市场头寸而非持有过多现金。你之前提到过想寻找未来三年内有明确翻倍路径的股票，这相当于要求约26%的年复合收益率，标准确实很高。能否分享一两个实际案例说明这个策略如何落地？

Clay Yeah. That's definitely well said, and it's played out well for you to definitely stay long in the market and not try and hold too much cash and whatnot. And you've previously mentioned that you'd like to find stocks that have a clear path to doubling over the next three years. Would equate to essentially a 26% return compounded, certainly a high bar. How about you share an example or two of how this ends up working out in practice?

因为我知道你对购买所谓的'价值股'或'成长股'并不特别执着。这让我想起以前打球的时光，教练总说要根据对手防守见机行事。你不必拘泥于某种打法或投资方式，只需顺势而为，市场给什么就拿什么。

Because I know you're fairly agnostic to buying say, quote, value stocks or quote, growth stocks. I even think back to my days playing sports where my coach would tell me to just take what the defense gives you. You're not trying to be married to a certain way of playing or a certain way of investing. You're simply taking whatever the market is willing to give you.

没错。那个'三年翻倍'的经验法则，有时见效比预期快，有时却完全失灵。我想给你举些正反例子。比如我持有的凯雷集团——

Yeah. So, I mean, that rule of thumb of a double in three years, sometimes it works out faster than you expect and sometimes it doesn't work out at all. So I guess I wanna give you both good and bad examples of that. And so yeah. So, like, I own Carlyle.

这家私募股权管理机构上市后的表现一直逊于同行。五六年前创始人向二代交班时搞砸了，后来他们二次尝试，聘用了高盛前CFO哈维·施瓦茨。到2022年时，其业绩远不如KKR和黑石，市盈率仅10倍。

Carlyle, private equity manager, probably underperformed its peers since it's been a public company. They they botched the CEO transition from the founders to the next generation five or six years ago. They did a second attempt. They hired the former CFO of Goldman, Harvey Schwartz, to come in. And so, like, at the '22, it had really underperformed KKR and Blackstone and was trading for 10 times fee related earnings.

仅计算管理费收益（剔除附带权益）的话，当时黑石市盈率约22-23倍，KKR是17倍。年底我习惯盘点各板块表现垫底的股票，发现凯雷市盈率10倍且明显落后同行，而CEO更迭恰好成为催化剂。

You know, just axing out the carry, just what do they earn on their management fees. And, you know, I think Blackstone was, like, 22 or 23 times at the time, and KKR was at 17 times. The end of the year, I just like to look at different sectors of, like, what stocks have flagged the sector, and is there a reason? And I noticed at the '22, Carlyle had lagged its peers, and it was at 10 times earnings. And then we had a CEO change as a catalyst.

市场总是寻找催化剂。对表现不佳的股票，换帅通常能成为有效催化剂。我认为凯雷成本结构过高，做空机会明显，于是29美元建仓。如今不到三年，股价已达65美元。

You know, people look for catalysts. I think CEO changes for underperforming stocks are generally good catalysts or can be good catalysts. And so I thought there were some easy things that shorts could come in to do, especially since I thought Carlyle's expense structure was too high. So, you know, I bought the stock, and I think I paid $29. And here, it's trading, a little less than 3 years later at 65.

这算是实现了三年翻倍。反例是PayPal——我十八个月前买入这只被众多价值型基金经理持有、估值大幅回落的股票，但至今未达预期。

So it's been it's a double in three years, I guess. An example of something that hasn't worked or maybe hasn't worked yet because we're not to three years is that, you know, I bought PayPal eighteen months ago. You know, cheap value stock. A lot of value managers own it. Valuations come way in.

同样以换帅为催化剂：来自Intuit的亚历克斯·克里斯曾执掌QuickBooks业务，我认为他能优化内部支出聚焦三大核心产品。虽初期见效，但今年四季报暴雷后，股价仍持平于我的买入价。

Again, CEO changes catalyst. Alex Chris came from Intuit. He ran the QuickBooks franchise. I thought he could refocus the spending internally to focus on three core products, and it started to work. They had a hiccup in q four reporting q four earnings this year, so the stock's unchanged since I bought it.

或许涨幅略有上升，但肯定没有翻倍。所以有时奏效，有时不行。然后像Robinhood这样的名字——我们稍后会讨论——它的涨幅来得更快、幅度更大。这条规则阻止我过于投机地去购买那些自以为能赚20%的股票。要知道，资金有限，我更希望专注于能实现1:30倍回报的机会。

Maybe it's up a tick, but it's certainly not a double. So sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. And then, you know, a name like Robinhood, which we'll talk about in a little bit, like, that happened a lot quicker and in a greater size. So, like, that rule prevents me from trying to be too cute and buy names that I think I'm gonna make 20% on. You know, it's just like, you only have so much capital, and I really wanna focus on the ideas where you can make substantial one:thirty money

而为了赚取20%的收益，你可能会占用大量资金。所以我尽量避免这类投资想法。

and you can tie up a lot of capital trying to earn 20%. And so I just try to avoid those ideas.

在你管理基金的这段时间里，很多人会说价值投资者普遍表现不佳。买入廉价股票的效果已大不如前。我的理论是：价值投资始终有效，但关键在于买入真正被低估的企业，而非单纯关注低市盈率、低市净率等价值因子。能否谈谈你认为价值投资如何演变，以及在这个似乎鲜有人能有效实践的时代，你是如何成功运用价值投资基本原则的？

And over the time period that you've managed your your fund, many would say that value investors generally have not done too well. Buying cheap stocks just has not worked the way it has in the past. I have this theory that value investing has always worked, but the key of value investing is buying companies that are actually undervalued instead of focusing on the value factor of low PE, low price to book and whatnot. So how about you talk a little bit about how you think value investing has evolved in your view and how you've been able to successfully apply the fundamental principles of value investing in an era where it seems that just so few have been able to do it effectively.

威廉 这是个好问题。过去几年成长股与价值股的表现差异确实令我震惊。科技七巨头拥有如此优质的现金流业务和宽阔护城河，它们推动了成长股的上涨，却让价值股相形见绌。

William Yeah. That's a great question. I've been really shocked by the performance of growth versus value over the last few years. The Mag seven are such good cash flow businesses and have such big moats. Like, they've really driven the the growth stocks and to the detriment of value stocks.

对吧？这些企业的质量实在惊人。我认为有些价值投资者忽略了动量因素对回报的驱动作用。理想情况下，价值叠加动量才能带来回报——股票必须要有上涨趋势。

Right? And so the quality of the businesses have been just so phenomenal. I mean, I think some value investors forget or, you know, sometimes don't apply momentum as a a factor that drives returns. So, like, really, the ideal thing is value plus momentum drives returns. You have to have some kind of the stock has to be moving.

因此，传统价值投资者的典型错误是买得太早、卖得太早。看到某只股票便宜就买入，尽管图表走势难看，他们却说'我不在乎技术分析，它很便宜'。

And so, like, I I think the classic value investor air is buy too early, sell too early. Right? Like, something looks cheap, we can all pull up a chart and see, oh, that chart looks ugly. But value investors like, oh, I don't care about technical analysis. It's cheap.

而我更关注技术面。图表是市场存在的客观现象——虽然我不依赖图表决策，但会参考它们。

I'm gonna buy it. Whereas I'm more just aware of technicals. You know, it's a thing in the market. Like, I don't buy charts. Like, I look at charts.

我们都会看图表。我认为最危险的是那些自称不看图表的基本面分析师，结果别人一提股票代码，他们第一件事就是调出图表。其实我们都这样，对吧？所以默认情况下，当你调出图表时，你就在做技术分析。

We all look at charts. I think the most dangerous is a fundamental analyst who claims they don't look at charts, and then first thing somebody does when they mention tickers, they pull up a chart. Like, we all do it. Right? And so, like, by default, you're doing technical analysis when you pull up the chart.

这是我职业生涯早期从一位基金经理那里学到的。我曾为Clover Capital工作，Mike Jones负责运营这家公司。他们原本擅长基本面分析。但当九十年代末成长股与价值股分道扬镳时，他们重新评估了投资流程，承认自己是典型的价值投资者。

I learned this from one of the the PMs early in my career. I worked for Clover Capital and Mike Jones, who ran Clover Capital. They had a great fundamental analysis. And then when growth and value went different directions in the late nineties, they reevaluated their investment process. And they said, you know, we're classic value investors.

我们总是买得太早也卖得太早。如果我们喜欢某只股票，会等到图表出现某种底部形态才开始建仓。在退出时，我们不会刚达到目标价位就清仓——可能会卖出部分，但如果图表走势良好，我们会让动量继续发挥作用。

We buy too early and we sell too early. If we like a stock, we're gonna wait until we see some kind of base in the chart before we start buying the position. And on the exits, we're not gonna just sell when things hit our price target. We're gonna wait. We might sell a little bit at the price target, but then if the chart looks good, we're gonna let momentum run.

市场可能会远超我们的预期，所以我们不该过早斩断盈利。这就像彼得·林奇说的：不要拔掉鲜花却给野草浇水。所有这些谚语都说明要让赢家持续奔跑——我认为自己在这方面做得不错。

And, you know, maybe the market will walk way beyond our expectations. And so we're just not gonna cut off our returns. And so I mean, that goes back to, like, it's the same thing of, Peter Lynch of you don't wanna cut your flowers and water your weeds. It's the you know, all those sayings kinda get to the same thing of you have to let the winners run. And so I think that's something that I fly pretty well.

我从风险管理角度操作：如果买入后股票走势不利，我不会机械加仓。市场在传递信号——并非绝对不买下跌股，但会严格自律地说'不'。

And, you know, I do it from risk management standpoint. Like, if I buy a stock and it goes against me, I don't automatically buy it. I just think, okay. The market's telling me something. It's not that I will never buy a stock that's down, but I just am very disciplined about saying, no.

只有在具备特殊优势时才会加仓下跌股，这让我避免了许多'赔了夫人又折兵'的情况。

I have some edge to buy a stock that's gone against me. And that's kept me out of dumping a lot of good money after bad.

克莱：是啊。看PayPal的图表，2021年它随科技股热潮直冲云霄，从100美元涨到300多美元。当2021年11月科技泡沫破裂后，其股价又沿着原先的上升轨迹直线坠落。所以对于PayPal，你会等待底部形态确立才考虑入场，同时关注CEO变更之类的催化剂。

Clay Yeah. When I look at the chart for PayPal, it sort of went into the stratosphere back in 2021 when everything's taken off. It goes from a $100 a share to over 300 a share. Then once that tech bubble popped in November 2021, see PayPal's stock just come straight down in the opposite direction, the way it was going straight up. So when it comes to PayPal, you're waiting for it to form a base before you get comfortable entering and you look at some of those catalysts like the CEO change.

是的。我是说，我认为去年就已经形成了底部。大概在四、五月时我买入了。当时公司换了CEO，股价已经横盘了几年，一直没什么起色。

Yeah. So, I mean, I thought the base had been formed last year. Like, I bought it maybe April, May. We had the CEO change. It had based for a couple years, hadn't gone anywhere.

它并没有真正创出新低。然后去年底股价开始有所表现，但今年第四季度表现不佳又有所回落。之后几个季度还算可以。业务增速略有放缓。他们有一块增长中的业务利润率较低，因此拉低了公司整体利润率。

It wasn't really making new lows. And so and then the stock started working late last year and then kinda had a step back this year with the fourth quarter wasn't that good. They've had a couple of okay quarters since then. A little bit of deceleration in the business. Like, they have one business that's growing that's relatively low margin, so it's driving the overall company's margins lower.

市场不喜欢利润率下降的情况。所以我现在没有加仓。股价还在我当初买入的位置附近，没有创新低。可以说还算稳定。

People don't love when margins are declining. So I'm not adding to the position here. Like, it's still around where I bought it. It's not making new lows. So you could say, okay.

这个领域仍在形成阶段，但我需要更多证据。或许等股价涨到90后，出现一些利好消息或积极进展时买入会更合适。在市场给出修复信号、确立良好势头时高价买入，风险可能反而更小。

It's still the space is still forming, but I need more evidence. It probably will be a better buy to buy it at 90 after it would get some confirmation of good news or good things happening. Might be less risky to buy it higher and let the market tell you that they've fixed things and it's on a good momentum path.

今年早些时候的4月25日，由于关税谈判，市场曾如自由落体般暴跌。事后看来，其剧烈程度和持续时间与2020年3月的暴跌颇为相似。标普指数一度下跌约20%，随后迅速反弹。要把握这种机会，必须快速调整投资组合。但若没有现金储备，调整会很困难。

So earlier this year, April 25, markets were really dropping like a rock due to the tariff talks. With the benefit of hindsight, it looks fairly similar to the drop we saw in March 2020 in terms of the severity and the duration. At one point, the S and P was down around 20% before swiftly rebounding. And to take advantage of this, would have had to have made changes to the portfolio rather quickly. And it's tough to make some changes if you don't have cash.

对吧？要建仓某个标的，就得先卖出其他持仓。请谈谈你在这段时期的操作频率，以及这对整体投资组合可能产生的影响。

Right? To fund one position, you're going have to sell something else. So talk to us about your level of activity during this period and how that might have impacted the portfolio at large.

威廉，我认为当时操作并不算频繁。市场波动时我会谨慎行事，但看到机会也不会犹豫。比如解放纪念日后的两天里，地区银行指数ETF（KRE）暴跌了13%-14%。宏观投资者的惯用套路是：经济衰退风险上升就抛售地区银行股。但我的观点与他们截然不同。

William I wouldn't say it was relatively active. When things are moving, I try to be judicious about how I act, but I you know, I'm not afraid to if I see opportunities to move stock. So, you know, in the the two days after liberation day, the KRE, the regional bank index or ETF was down, like, 13 or 14% in two days. And I think that's the playbook that macro investors have of recession risk goes higher, sell regional banks. And I have a fundamentally different view.

你看，根据地区银行的信贷账目显示，现在根本不是2006年2月或2007年的情况。资本和流动性比那时好太多了。别以为下次经济衰退时银行就会倒闭。我是说，可能会有几家银行撑不住，但整个行业崩溃？我觉得不至于。当时确实有点吓人，因为我心想，好吧...

Like, this is not 02/2006, 2007 as far as what the credit books look like at regional banks. The the capital and liquidity is so much better than it was then. Don't think in the next recession, banks are gonna fail. I mean, there might be a few banks that fail, but, like, I just don't think it's gonna be the whole industry goes down. It was a little scary because I was like, okay.

他搞这些关税到底想干嘛？是真想搞垮经济吗？不过接下来一周就很清楚了，他并不想摧毁经济，也不打算死板地执行那些关税数字。转折点是他宣布了九十天延期，把关税从四月推迟到七月，市场立刻就反弹了。

What is he doing with these tariffs? Like, is he really trying just to crash the economy? Or and, you know, clearly, in the the following week, it was clear that he didn't wanna crash the economy, and he was gonna not be dogmatic about imposing those those numbers. Like, I think the catalyst was he gave a delay, like a ninety day delay, and so that pushed out the tariffs from April to July. And so the market rallied there.

得到这个信号后，我平仓了很多地区银行的空头头寸。现在我持有多家地区银行的多头，同时也做空另一些——那些管理层较弱、估值偏高、或者进行了我不看好的收购案的银行。总体来说我还是做空了不少地区银行。

But, like, when we got that indication, I covered a lot of my regional bank shorts. Like, I'm long a bunch of regional banks. I'm short some others. You know, ones that I think don't have a stronger management, have higher valuations, may have done an acquisition that I don't love. So I'm just generally short a bunch of regional banks.

但有些银行市盈率跌到了八倍，尽管我不喜欢他们的管理层或某些交易，在股价大跌的情况下，这个估值让我近期平掉了不少空单，这波操作让我赚到了。关税延迟/暂停的消息出来后，这些股票立马暴涨。那真是压力山大的时期。

And but some of them got down to, you know, eight times earnings. And as much as I might not like the management or some deal they did at eight times earnings with them being down a lot. In recent days, I covered a bunch of regional bank shorts, and so that benefited me. They they they ripped higher after, you know, the delay and or the pause in the tariffs. Those are super stressful times.

这种时刻才是创造业绩的关键。头脑清醒能赚大钱，但情绪失控就会搞砸。你得深呼吸然后问自己：如果基金里只有我一个人的钱，我会怎么做？试着忘记这是别人的钱...

Like, it's where you make the performance. You can make a lot of performance of those by being smart, but you can also mess things up and, you know, your emotions affect your decision making. So you just have to take a deep breath and say, okay. If I was the only investor in the fund, what would I do? Like, try to ignore that I'm dealing with people's money.

我不想给自己施加更多压力。已经亏损了，那就做最明智的长期决策吧，尽量控制住情绪。

Like, I don't wanna put too much more pressure on myself. I'm already down. Like, just let's do the smartest long term thing we can and just trying to manage those emotions.

崔伊，今年五月我还参加了伯克希尔哈撒韦的年度股东大会。问答环节结束时，巴菲特突然宣布将在年底卸任CEO。我知道他对你影响很大——如果没记错，你上次提过读完他的致股东信后，就决定要成为基金经理？要是我记错了你可以纠正。

Trey And then also earlier this year, I attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in May. And at the end of the Q and A, Buffett announced unexpectedly that he would be stepping down as CEO of Berkshire at the end of the year. And I know that Buffett has had a big impact on you. Going off memory, I think you mentioned last time that after reading his letters, decided that you wanted to become a fund manager. You can correct me if I'm wrong there.

或许你可以多谈谈巴菲特多年来对你的投资产生了怎样的影响。

Perhaps you could talk more about how Buffett has influenced your investing over the years.

你知道，巴菲特对我的投资生涯至关重要。我读过罗杰·洛温斯坦1995年出版的《巴菲特传：一个美国资本家的成长》，那是第一本关于他的传记。那时互联网刚起步，关于他的信息远不如现在多。那本书让我大开眼界，了解了他的职业生涯和投资理念，我对此深表感激。后来我在芝加哥大学读商学院时，我的同学丹·科兹洛夫斯基——他曾掌管Janus Contrean基金——带我们所有人参加了伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东大会。

You know, Buffett has been super important to my investing career. So I read Roger Lowenstein's in the making of american capitalist, which was really the first Buffett biography that came out in 1995. The Internet really was just getting started then, so there wasn't as much information about Buffett as there is now. And so, like, that was really eye opening to understand his career and his investing, and so I really appreciated that. And then when I went to business school at the University of Chicago, one of my classmates, Dan Kozlowski, who used to run the Janus Contrean Fund, he took us all to the Berkshire Hathaway meeting.

我参加了2000年5月的伯克希尔股东大会，那时正值互联网泡沫顶峰。非常有趣的是，当时巴菲特69岁，他精力充沛、谈笑风生，回答问题深思熟虑，这让我非常惊讶。

So I went to the May 2000 Berkshire meeting, and it was right at the peak of the Internet bubble. So was super interesting. Like, at the time, Buffett was 69. It was so surprising to me. He was so energetic, so jovial, and, you know, thoughtful about his answers.

我觉得这是一份巨大的礼物——这位亿万富翁投资大师坐在台上连续六个小时回答所有问题。我记得就是在那次会议上他说，如果有一百万美元，他保证每年能赚50%。这声明很惊人，对吧？人们很容易认为这是傲慢。

And I just thought it was a huge gift that you have this billionaire super investor who's sitting on stage answering all questions for six hours. And so I guess that was also the meeting where he said, if I had a million dollars, I guarantee I can make 50% a year. That was you know, it's a shocking statement. Right? Like, and it's easy to dismiss it of, like, arrogance.

我仔细思考了这句话：他为什么这么说？会怎么做？回顾早期巴菲特合伙公司时期，我知道他的换手率比现在高得多。毕竟现在规模大了，他买入优质公司并持有几十年。

I took that comment and thought about it, like, what would cause him to say that? How would he do that? Looking back early in the the Buffett partnerships, I know that he had much higher turnover than he does now. Right? Mean, he's due to size, he's buying high quality companies and owning them for decades.

对吧？但当他管理较小资金时，他会频繁调整投资组合。你可以从单只股票上大赚，也可以通过大量交易小赚。我认为如果他有一百万美元，他会做很多小额交易——不是指10%或20%的小额。

Right? But when he was ran much smaller sums, he was turning over his portfolio. And you can either make a lot on a stock or you can make a little bit on a lot of trades. And I think if he had a million dollars, he'd make a lot of smaller trades. And I don't mean smaller, like, 10 or 20%.

他会买入股票，涨到40%或50%就换仓。而且他还会使用杠杆——早期巴菲特合伙公司就用杠杆，伯克希尔现在也用，不过是浮存金杠杆。

And, like, he'd buy things and they'd be up 40 or 50%, and he'd just cycle over the portfolio. And then he'd also use leverage. You know, he used leverage in the early days of the Puffet partnership. He uses leverage at Berkshire. It's just float leverage.

这不是债务杠杆的问题。他当时在思考，怎么能做到那样？所以在我对冲基金刚起步、试图积累业绩时，我会对投资组合进行一定调整。只要有机会，我并不畏惧交易，这让我想起巴菲特那句‘换手率能创造收益’的名言。很多投资者认为必须长期持有、对仓位死心塌地，这种观念需要改变。

It's not, you know, debt leverage. And he was thinking about those things, like, how could you do that? And so, like, in the early days of my hedge fund when I was trying to put points on the board, like, I turned over the portfolio some. I'm just not afraid of trading when there's opportunities and kinda just harkening back to that that Buffett quote of, like, turnover can generate returns. And so I think a lot of investors just think, oh, you have to be buy and hold and you get wedded to these positions.

有时机会层出不穷。不必固守现有仓位，适当调整投资组合反而能创造更高回报。当然在趋势性行情或波动不大的市场里，频繁换手并无益处。但当市场波动时，机会自然浮现，此时换手并非坏事。

Sometimes you see a lot of opportunities. You're not stuck in your existing positions. You can turn over your portfolio, you know, and that will actually generate higher returns. Now there are certain environments where with trending markets or or things that are not moving a whole lot, turnover is not helpful. But in markets that are moving, opportunities present themselves, and turnover is not bad.

巴菲特还有一点让我印象深刻却少被提及。在2000年代初的某次年会——可能是2001或2002年——他说如果职业生涯能重来，他会更乐观并承担更多风险。这话出自以‘永恒多头’著称的他实在惊人，毕竟他向来对美国经济和股市充满信心，甚至运用杠杆做多。

So I think the other thing that struck me that Buffett said that I don't hear a lot of people talking about it. At one annual meeting, I don't remember who it was definitely in the early two thousands. Like, I don't know if it was 2001 or 02/2002, but he said something along the lines of if he had to change anything in his career, he would have been more optimistic and taken more risk, which is pretty amazing for him to say because he's known as a Perma Bull. Like, he's super optimistic about America and the economy, and he's long stocks in a leveraged way. Right?

连他都说‘本应承担更大风险’，这点虽少有人讨论，却彻底改变了我对经济的认知。全球有许多人才在追求自身经济利益，这为他们、为经济、也为股市创造了价值。所以我认为做渗透性多头远比永恒空头明智。

So, like, for him to say, I should have taken even more risk. I don't hear people talk about that, but, like, that changed how I think about the economy. Like, I think there's a lot of people who are talented in this country and around the world that are acting in their own economic interests, and that creates value for them and for the economy and for the stock market. And so I think it's better to be a permeable than a permabear. Right?

乐观主义更易致富。我常提醒自己：虽然看空显得高明，仿佛参透天机，但择时极其困难。因此保持乐观更好——我在组合中也会适度运用杠杆。

It's Optimism makes you more money. And so I try to remember that. I mean, being bearish sounds sophisticated and, like, you've figured something out. The timing of that is so hard, and so, like, it's better to be optimistic. And I try you know, I use a little bit of leverage in my portfolio.

我有意投资些非顶尖企业，只为践行长期乐观主义。好运终将眷顾乐观者。如何用百万资金实现年化50%？长期乐观——这两点巴菲特智慧少被提及，却对我影响至深。

I try to I invest in some companies that are not the highest quality. I just I'm trying to be long term optimistic and that good things happen to the ones that are optimistic. Those two things, like, how would you get 50% a year if you managed a million dollars and being long term optimistic? Those are two things that I've taken away from Buffett that I don't hear a lot of other people talking about.

克莱 说得太精彩了。你从巴菲特身上汲取智慧，白手起家创建对冲基金，初期独自操盘，在波动中频繁交易，遇到良机敢于重注——这些策略显然让你大获成功。要知道巴菲特本身也是金融板块的重要投资者。

Clay Yeah. That's so well put. I just love how you looked at someone like Buffett and you launched your own hedge fund, being the sole investor at day one and just figure it out. Trading a lot when there's a lot of volatility and whatnot, being willing to bet big when you find the right opportunities and that's certainly worked out well for you. And Buffett is also an investor in the financial sector.

他深度涉足保险业和大银行业，在该领域有重大投资。这正是你们基金专注的金融板块，范围相当广泛，涵盖银行、券商、资产管理、保险、房地产信托基金等。目前市场上哪些细分领域最让你看到投资机会？

He's been very involved with insurance and the big banks, has major investments in that arena. That's exactly what your fund is focused on is the financial sector. And this can be pretty broad. You have banks, brokers, asset managers, insurance, REITs, etcetera. What pockets of the market are you finding the most two:fifty): opportunities today?

我认为中小型银行仍存在机会，特别是在硅谷银行和第一共和银行倒闭事件后。它们表现尚可，我认为还有上涨空间。相比历史估值仍属便宜，但收益率曲线仍是逆风因素。

I think small mid cap banks are still an opportunity, and, you know, they became an opportunity after the Silicon Valley First Republic implosions. And they've done okay. I think there's more to go. They're still cheap relative to their history. I think they're still the headwind of the yield curve.

关于收益率曲线，真正影响银行利润的是隔夜利率与五年期国债的利差。目前这个利差是倒挂的——五年期国债收益率约3.68%，而一个月期国债是4.08%，形成40个基点的倒挂。如果利差更陡峭，银行盈利能力和利润率都会提升。

And with the yield curve, I think about really what benefits the banks is the spread between the overnight rate and the five year treasury. So right now, that's inverted. You know, the five years, like, 3 68, and the one month treasury is, like, four zero eight, so it's a 40 basis point inversion. If that was steeper, I think that banks would make more money. Their margins would be wider.

回溯七年前的2018年2月，这个利差是80个基点（隔夜利率比五年期低80基点），而现在倒挂40基点。这120基点的波动对区域性银行构成巨大逆风。若美联储如预期降息使收益率曲线稍趋陡峭，银行盈利和估值倍数都可能上升。

If we go back to seven years ago, you know, 02/2018, that spread was 80 basis points. And so the overnight rate was 80 basis points below the five year rate, and now we're 40 basis points inverted. So, like, that 120 basis points swing is a big inversion big headwind for the regional banks. We get a little bit of steeper yield curve with a few more rate cuts, which it looks like we're gonna have. And I think banks can make more money, and then the multiples can also go up.

另外监管正在放松，银行并购审批加速，预计会有更多并购活动。另一个值得关注的领域是我们讨论过的PayPal代表的金融科技板块——这些曾在2021年2月被视为成长股。

You know, we also have deregulation coming. Bank mergers are getting approved faster. I think there's gonna be more M and A activity. I think another area that's super interesting is we've talked about with PayPal is fintech. So fintech names are you know, they used to be growth names in 02/2021.

如今金融科技股失宠，估值极具吸引力，甚至低于大银行。比如WEX、PayPal、Global Payments等公司的市盈率都是个位数。它们将大部分净利润转化为自由现金流，我认为当前低估状态不可持续。

They've fallen out of favor. Everybody hates fintech. The valuations are super compelling. They're cheaper than the big banks. So, like, there you know, there's a lot of single digit PEs in fintech, you know, whether it's WEX or PayPal or, you know, Global Payments.

第三个领域是我开始增持的欧洲银行股。过去15-17年欧洲银行表现极差，但去年终于好转——比如我持有六年的巴克莱银行。

And so they convert a large majority of their net income to free cash flow. I just don't think it's sustainable that the valuations stay down here. The third area I would say is I've started investing more in European banks. You know, European banks have been terrible for fifteen years, fifteen, sixteen, seventeen years. So finally, last year you know, I've owned Barclays for about six years.

去年这个策略奏效了。我观察了欧洲其他银行的情况，今年初开始买入法国银行股。说来幸运，当时法国银行股时机正好——法国巴黎银行股价仅为有形账面价值的60%，而法国兴业银行更是低至35%。其CEO年仅50岁且上任两年，正如我之前说的，管理层变动就是催化剂。这两支股票今年表现都不错，我认为欧洲银行股还有上涨空间。

Last year, it worked. I looked around at other European banks and started buying the French banks early this year. And, you know, the French banks I had fortuitous this timing, but the BNP was trading for 60% of tangible book, and Societe Generale was trading for 35% of tangible book. And, you know, the CEO was 50 years old and had been in place for two years. So, again, as CEO's catalyst change, they've both worked this year, and I think there's more to go on on European banks.

以上就是我近期重点关注的三大领域。现在让我们稍事休息，听听今日赞助商带来的内容。

So those are the three areas I've been most focused on recently. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

是否注意到精明投资者总在防范尾部风险，却几乎从不讨论金融压制？有个残酷的事实：无论你如何谨慎构建投资组合，只要资金规则可能一夜突变，你就处于危险之中。问问银行账户被冻结的加拿大卡车司机，汇款被国有银行截留的古巴家庭，或是数十个威权国家中目睹毕生积蓄在恶性通胀中蒸发的人们吧——这些绝非孤立事件。

Ever notice how smart investors hedge against tail risk, but almost never talk about financial repression? Here's the uncomfortable truth. It doesn't matter how careful you build your portfolio because if the rules around your money can change overnight, you're vulnerable. Just ask the Canadian truckers whose bank accounts were frozen or Cuban families whose remittances were hijacked by state banks or citizens in dozens of authoritarian countries watching their life savings evaporate under hyperinflation. These aren't isolated incidents.

这是全球性的系统性现象。为此人权基金会推出《金融自由报告》周刊，追踪各国政府如何将货币武器化来控制民众，以及比特币如何帮助个体抵抗金融压制。如果你关注健全货币、个人主权与财务自由，这份报告堪称必读——我本人订阅后获益良多。免费订阅请访问financialfreedomreport.org。

They're part of a global pattern. That's why the Human Rights Foundation publishes the Financial Freedom Report, a weekly newsletter that tracks how governments weaponize money to control people and how Bitcoin is helping individuals resist financial repression. If you care about sound money, personal sovereignty, and financial freedom, HRF's Financial Freedom Report is essential reading. This is a report that I'm personally subscribed to and learn a ton from. Sign up for free at financialfreedomreport.org.

再次强调：financialfreedomreport.org。真正的聪明投资者不只盯着美联储，他们放眼全球。

That's financialfreedomreport.org. Smart investors don't just watch the Fed, they watch the world.

作为小企业主，你根本没有提前下班的奢侈。你的生意24小时萦绕心头。因此招聘时，你需要一个与你同样拼命的合作伙伴——这个伙伴就是领英招聘。当你休息时，领英正在为你工作。

As a small business owner, you do not have the luxury of clocking out early. Your business is on your mind 20 fourseven. So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do. That hiring partner is LinkedIn jobs. When you clock out, LinkedIn clocks in.

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好的，回到节目。

All right, back to the show.

Clay，我很高兴你提到利率问题，因为我们是在9月18日录制的。昨天，美联储宣布降息25个基点。而在你上个月的信中，你写道你认为美联储今年应该降息两次，总共可能是50个基点。除了收益率曲线，你还关注哪些信号来决定这类利率变化？你认为这些降息将如何影响经济？

Clay I'm glad you mentioned interest rates there because we're recording here on September 18. Yesterday, the Fed announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut. And in your letters, you wrote last month that you believe that the fed should cut interest rates twice this year, which is likely 50 basis points total. What signals do you look for to determine these sort of interest rate changes other than maybe just the yield curve? And how do you see these interest rate cuts impacting the economy?

当前利率水平具有限制性。我认为我们有一个分化的经济。一方面是与AI相关的、不受利率影响的行业，它们运行良好。另一方面是与利率相关的行业，比如住房或汽车，这些行业正在挣扎。

Interest rates are restrictive at this level. Like, I think there's we have a bifurcated economy. We have the AI, non interest rate related sectors. There's humming along just fine. And then we have interest rate related sectors, like whether it's housing or autos that are struggling.

对吧？所以，比如现房销售量一直在每年略低于400万套的水平徘徊，而2021年我记得卖出了550万套现房。同时房地产开发也真的很艰难。你知道，利率高了，开发商根本不愿意以8%的利率借钱去建新公寓或新仓库之类的。所以建筑经济在下滑。

Right? And so, like, existing home sales were bouncing here just below 4,000,000 units a year, whereas in 2021, I think five and a half million existing homes were sold. And also real estate development has really struggled. You know, with higher rates, developers just haven't wanted to borrow at 8% rates to build new apartments or build new warehouses or whatever we have. So the construction economy is lower.

因此我认为我们确实需要降息来帮助经济中对利率敏感的部分。我对当前围绕通胀的讨论感到沮丧。我认为经济中有三大领域在推动持续通胀，而加息对它们都无济于事。在我看来，就是住房、大学教育和医疗保健。加息不会让医疗价格下降或医疗价格增速放缓。

And so I think we really need rate cuts to help the interest rate sensitive parts of the economy. I'm frustrated with the conversation with around inflation. I think there are three big parts of the economy that are driving persistent inflation, and none of them can get solved by higher rates. When I think about it, it's housing, college education, and health care. Like, higher rates is not gonna make health care prices go down or the growth of health care prices go down.

对大学教育同样无效。至于住房，考虑到土地使用法规、邻避主义、分区政策以及项目审批的漫长周期，加息反而会让这些问题恶化。比如公寓建设已经放缓了，如果我们不建新公寓，房价怎么可能下降？

Neither is it gonna affect college education. And the housing, like, with the the land use regulations and the nimbyism and the the zoning practices and how long it takes to get things entitled, higher rates aren't gonna fix those problems. In fact, it makes them worse. Like, you had a slowdown in apartment construction. So how does that get lower housing prices if we're not gonna build apartments?

所以我认为这里存在一个脱节——利率、通胀和真正能改变通胀的因素之间。如果我们想降低通胀，美联储解决不了这些问题。那怎么解决？比如医疗系统中行政人员数量相比医生数量暴增。为什么医疗体系会有这么多官僚冗余？

And so I think there is a disconnect here between, you know, rates and inflation and what's really gonna change inflation. If we wanna get inflation down, the Fed can't fix those problems. How do we fix those problems? Like, hospital administration staff in health care has exploded compared to the number of doctors. Like, why is there so much more bureaucracy on health care?

大学教育也一样，行政人员数量相比教师编制激增。我们拥有这么多技术进步，但培养的大学生数量却不变。常春藤盟校2025年录取人数和1990年一样。这太疯狂了——现在教育成本可以很低廉，为什么还存在招生限制？

College education and same thing administrators at colleges have exploded, like, compared to teachers. We have so much technological improvements, but we we teach the same number of college kids. Like, the Daigleh colleges admit the same number of students in 2025 as they did in 1990. That's crazy with you know, we can deliver education so cheaply now. Like, why do we have capacity constraints on that?

如果我们能通过在线教育培养更多人，价格自然就会下降。所以加息解决不了这些通胀问题。我认为经济中还存在着强大的通缩力量，比如互联网仍在带来通缩效应。全球化...

So and prices would just come down if we could just use online teaching to educate more people. So, like, higher rates are not gonna fix those inflation problems. I think there's also huge deflationary forces in the economy. Like, the Internet is still deflationary. Globalization.

虽然全球化可能因关税和移民政策调整略有退潮，但互联网仍是巨大的通缩力量。我认为AI将成为经济中另一股强大的通缩力量。所以我觉得应该降息，这不会引发过度投机——或许会有一点，但IPO市场已经沉寂四年了。

You know, globalization's maybe having a little bit of pullback with the tariffs and the immigration changes, but Internet's still a huge deflationary force. And I think AI is gonna be a huge deflationary force in the economy. So, like, I think rates should be lower. Like, I don't think it's gonna create too much speculation. Maybe there'll be a little speculation, but the IPO market's been dead for four years.

比如，我真的认为目前没有问题。我知道人们担心私人信贷1:50之类的，

Like, I really don't think there's a problem at the moment. Like, I know that people are worried about private credit one:fifty): or

某些行业确实如此，但我真的不认为仅仅因为今年剩余时间降息两次，通胀就会飙升。

some sectors like that, but I really don't think that inflation's gonna rocket just because they cut rates two times the rest of the year.

我相信鲍威尔说过，在考虑降息时他真正关注的是就业市场，希望在劳动力市场趋紧的情况下刺激经济。过去几年真正让我困惑的是房地产对抵押贷款利率大幅上升的反应。2020年，我记得人们的贷款利率低于3%。而最近有些抵押贷款利率已接近7%。利息成本显著增加，但整体房价并未显著下降。

I believe that Powell said that he was really looking at the job market when it came to lower interest rates, wanting to help stimulate the economy in light of a tighter labor market. What's really puzzled me over the past few years is how real estate has reacted to mortgage rates going up so much. In 2020, I believe people were getting interest rates below 3%. Then just recently you see some mortgage rates are around 7%. That is a significant increase in the cost of interest, yet home prices overall haven't significantly come down.

部分原因是市场活动稀少。像奥斯汀、洛杉矶等一些高价市场确实有所回调。你认为降息将如何影响抵押贷款利率以及整个房地产30:50市场？

Part of that's just there's not a lot of activity. Some of the more pricier markets like Austin, LA, and some of those markets have come down a little bit. How do you think the interest rate cuts are going to impact mortgage rates and maybe the real estate thirty:fifty market overall?

是的。目前30年期抵押贷款利率大约在6.25%左右。如果收益率曲线变得更陡峭——比如短期利率持续下降——我认为人们可能会转向5/1可调利率贷款。预计这类利率可能降至5.5%以下，甚至5%，这应该能提振市场活跃度。

Yeah. I think thirty year mortgages are around six and a quarter today. And so I think if we get a little bit steeper yield curve, like the short end keeps going down, I think people could potentially switch into five one arms. And, you know, I I think five one arms will get down to, you know, below five and a half, maybe 5%. And I think that'll improve some activity.

正如你提到的，地区差异很大，比如奥斯汀和洛杉矶。所有疫情期间繁荣的市场——中佛罗里达、纳什维尔、博伊西、凤凰城——现在都在回调。库存正在增加，边际价格略有下降。由于供应充足且更多人需要返回办公室工作，价格可能继续走低。

You know, I think we have a lot of regional differences, like you mentioned, Austin and LA. I think any of the COVID boom markets, you know, Central Florida, Nashville, Boise, Phoenix, all boom during COVID, and I think they're all pulling back here. So I think the inventories are increasing. I think prices at the margin are down a tick. I think they'll continue to tick lower because there's a lot of supply, and a lot of people have to move back to work in the office.

远程办公不再可行。而新英格兰地区的情况截然不同——房屋库存几乎为零。这很有意思：曾几何时人们纷纷离开新英格兰，现在却一房难求。

They can't remote in to work anymore. So, you know, and then we see New England. The inventory in New England is almost nonexistent as far as homes. And so it's you know, that's super interesting to me. Like, for a long time, New England people were leaving New England, and now it's it's hard to find a home in New England.

所以我不知道这个问题如何解决。我不清楚新英格兰地区是否会大量建房，或者问题会如何解决，但我认为一些疫情时期繁荣的市场将继续呈现小幅下跌趋势。希望它们能因利率下降而得救，市场活动也会增加。但很难预测走势如何。不过我认为价格很可能会更低。

And so I don't know how that gets resolved. I don't know if there's gonna be a lot of building in New England or how that gets resolved, but I think some of those COVID boom markets will continue to trend a little bit lower. Hopefully, they'll get saved by lower rates, and there'll be more activity. But it's hard to tell how things will move. But I think that there's likelihood prices are lower.

也许在利率降低的情况下，价格不会跌得那么低。

Maybe they don't go as low with lower rates.

Trey，回到你近期的表现，你是我交谈过的少数几位在做空股票方面相当成功的经理之一。2024年，你的空头头寸相对于整个投资组合来说相当可观。那一年，你的多头和空头都跑赢了你的一个基准——金融指数。在一个上涨的市场中，你的空头表现如此出色的关键原因是什么？

Trey Jumping back to your recent performance, you're one of the few managers I've chatted with who has been pretty successful with shorting stocks. At the 2024, you had some fairly significant short positions relative to the overall portfolio. And during that year, both your longs and your shorts outperformed one of your benchmarks, the financials index. What were some of the key reasons for your shorts doing so well in a market that's going up?

做空很难。我认为做空这些年来是一个逐步改进的过程。所以，比如，你要试着尊重动量，当空头对我不利时。作为一个价值投资者，你想做空昂贵的股票，但这些股票也可能有动量。关键是要找到那些估值不合理且面临逆风的股票。

Shorting's hard. I think shorting's been an iterative improvement over the years. And so, like, you're trying to, you know, respect momentum is, you know, when shorts are going against me. As a value investor, you wanna short expensive stocks, but those can also be stocks that have momentum. You know, it's trying to find a mix of stocks that are just not good values and stocks that have headwinds against them.

所以，你知道，就是不断尝试改进。我认为在基金的大部分历史中，做空环境都很艰难，因为很多糟糕的金融公司在金融危机中被淘汰了。因此，任何在金融危机中幸存下来的公司都有一定的持久力。对吧？所以那里没有太多的做空机会。

And so, you know, just trying to constantly improve. Like, I think the shorting environment's been hard for most of the history of the fund that, you know, a lot of the bad financial companies got wiped out during the financial crisis. And so any company that survived the financial crisis would had some staying power. Right? And so there weren't a ton of shorts there.

但是，比如在2021年的SPAC热潮中，有很多新的金融公司上市，很多抵押贷款公司，一些估值不合理的金融科技公司上市。所以这改善了做空的机会。

But, like, during the SPAC craze of 2021, there was a lot of new financial companies that came public, a lot of mortgage companies, some fintechs that came public that were bad values. And so that improved the opportunity set.

Clay

Clay

除了利用空头外，你的策略中

Other than utilizing shorts, one of

另一个较为反常规的部分是你能接受投资组合中持有约250个仓位，并在资产负债表上使用一定杠杆。行情好时，这看起来非常不错。但若遭遇重大危机，这些高杠杆企业就可能陷入困境。那么你如何看待在公司层面管理杠杆，以避免危机不可避免地来临时措手不及？

the more contrarian parts of your strategy is that you're able to get comfortable with two:fifty some holdings in the portfolio using some leverage on the balance sheet. In the good times, this can look really good. But if we ever come across a major crisis, then that's when these highly leveraged businesses can find themselves into trouble. So how do you think about managing leverage at the company level so you don't get caught on the wrong side of things when the crisis inevitably hits?

我曾通过投资高杠杆公司获利。这并不容易。我想我能接受投资某只股票而不保证盈利。比起其他经理人，或许我对持有亏损股的容忍度更高。因为我不知道结果会如何，而杠杆失控或因其导致不利结果确实是亏钱的一种方式。

I've made money investing in highly leveraged companies. It's not super easy. I guess I'm comfortable investing in a stock and not being guaranteed I'm gonna make money. Like, I I feel like I have a higher tolerance to own losers than other managers maybe. So, like, I don't know how things are gonna turn out and leverage losing control of leverage or having an adverse outcome due to leverage is certainly a a way to lose money.

我只是对杠杆带来的上行风险回报与潜在下行之间的权衡感到适应。当然，并非所有投资都能成功，它们可能迅速崩盘。但高杠杆也能让管理层保持专注——当杠杆率高时，他们往往不会做蠢事，因为明白安全边际很小。所以虽然不建议所有人这么做，但投资高杠杆公司可能带来这种好处。

And I just I've been comfortable with that risk reward of the upside that the leverage presents versus, you know, the potential downside. But, you know, they don't all work out, and they can quickly unravel. But it also keeps management focused. And so, like, when they have high leverage, they tend not to do dumb things because they know their margin of safety is low. So I don't recommend that for everyone, but, like, that can be a benefit of investing in companies with higher leverage.

当前一些金融科技公司就是例子。它们通过杠杆回购股票，因此停止并购来偿还债务。希望这招对它们管用。

You know, an example right now is some of the fintech companies. They've bought back stock and levered up to do it. And so they've stopped making acquisitions to pay down the debt. So hopefully that works out for them.

克莱，作为金融主题基金，你是否同时以标普1500金融指数和标普500指数为基准？当我查看金融指数中的重仓股时，发现包括伯克希尔哈撒韦、Visa、万事达和大银行等公司。考虑到高利率背景，这个指数2024年上涨近30%令我惊讶——毕竟你提到过收益率曲线倒挂对中小银行的恶劣环境。按理说高利率会导致摩根大通、美国银行等公司贷款增长放缓，但大银行过去12-18个月表现相当出色。

Clay And as a financials fund, do you benchmark yourself against the S and P fifteen hundred financials as well as the S and P five hundred? So when I look at the top holdings in the financials index, this includes companies like Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, MasterCard, and the big banks. And I was actually surprised to see that this index was up nearly 30% in 2024 given the backdrop of higher interest rates. Would expect that you highlighted the difficult environment for the smaller banks of an inverted yield curve. So I would expect generally higher interest rates would lead to slower loan growth for companies like JPMorgan, Bank of America, but the big banks seem to have done quite well the past twelve to eighteen months.

请谈谈当前行业内的这些动态因素。

So talk about some of the dynamics at play here in the industry.

是的。硅谷银行和第一共和银行的倒闭给大银行带来了巨大的礼物。由于监管机构认为它们'大而不能倒'，资金正流向这些大型银行以求安全。因此，储户们纷纷将存款和账户转移到大银行。这使得它们获得了低成本存款增长这一有利条件，这是一大胜利。

Yeah. So the the big banks got a huge gift from Silicon Valley and the First Republic failing. Like, the there's a flight to quality in the the biggest banks because of the regulatory position that they're too big to fail. And so, like, the people depositors are moving deposits and accounts to the big banks. So they've had this tailwind of the low cost deposit growth, which is a big win.

此外，《巴塞尔协议III》资本规则也有所放宽。原本针对大银行提出的一套资本标准相当严苛，股价也因此受到影响，因为预计这些规则将实施。后来标准降低了，银行股随之反弹。去年年底时，它们还受益于对即将上任的共和党政府的预期，认为会出现放松监管的环境和更多并购活动。据银行家们描述，监管机构在上届政府期间的行为方式，我认为现任政府会减轻很多这类幕后压力。

And then there was a little bit of watering down of the Basel three capital rules. So, like, there was a set of capital standards that were proposed for the big banks that were onerous, and the stocks were priced because, like, that capital rule was gonna get implemented. And then it got reduced, and so the banks rallied when that capital rule got reduced. And then they also had the benefit of at the end of last year, I think they responded well to incoming Republican administration thinking that there'll be a deregulatory environment and more m and a. And so I think some of the the stories I hear from bankers about how the regulators act during the previous administration, I think that a lot of those behind the scenes pressures get lifted with the current administration.

因此，我认为银行对此反应积极，可以更专注于业务。关于贷款增长你说得对。利率上升后贷款增长一直乏善可陈，希望未来能看到贷款增长加速。但当利率上升时，借款人会想：'我习惯支付5%的利率，现在你要我付8%，那我干脆不要贷款了。'

So I think the banks reacted favorably that they can focus more on business. You're right about loan growth. Like, loan growth with higher rates has been lackluster, and hopefully, that's one of the things that we'll see going forward is accelerated loan growth. But, you know, when when rates went up, borrowers are just like, I'm used to paying 5%. Now you're asking me to pay 8%.

再加上许多借款人在疫情期间积累了流动性，他们宁愿使用自有资金也不愿以高利率向银行借款。但你说得对，贷款增长确实不太乐观，不过资本规则的放宽和潜在的监管放松对大银行有利。

I just don't want the loan. And plus a lot of borrowers had liquidity from, you know, the COVID boom, and so they just used their own internal liquidity rather than borrowing at high rates from the banks. But you're right. The loan growth has been not that exciting, but the capital rules and the potential of deregulation have helped the big banks.

崔伊：有意思的是你强调了资金向优质资产转移、资本状况以及部分存款流向大银行的现象，因为你之前提到你超配了区域性银行。我通常认为区域性银行是中型银行，比小型社区银行大，但又比摩根大通、美国银行等全国性大银行小。你的主要持仓之一是第一公民银行股份，我们在第669期节目中也讨论过。

Trey Yeah. It's interesting that you highlight the flight to quality and this capital and some of these deposits going towards the big banks because you've highlighted that you're overweight the regional banks. I sort of think of regional banks as these mid sized banks. They're bigger than the smaller community banks, but smaller than the largest national banks like JP Morgan, Bank of America. So one of your top holdings is First Citizens Bank shares, which we discussed back on episode six sixty nine.

它是较大的区域性银行之一，家族经营，非常优秀的公司，也是很好的复合增长者。鉴于你刚才提到存款流向大银行的情况，请多谈谈为什么区域性银行对你来说仍是具有吸引力的投资领域。

They're one of the larger regional banks, family run, very good company and very good compounder. So talk more about what makes the regional banks an attractive hunting ground for you in light of the comments you've just made of this flight of deposits to the bigger banks.

威廉：我认为区域性银行之所以有趣，是因为它们的估值远低于大银行。通常大银行最便宜，其次是中型银行，而小型银行由于并购潜力和更好的增长前景最为昂贵。但现在情况完全相反，对吧？

William Yeah. I think regional banks are interesting because the valuations are so much lower than the big banks. So normally, the big banks are the cheapest and followed by mid caps, and then small caps are the most expensive due to, you know, m and a potential, better growth prospects. But right now, we're inverted. Right?

因此，大型银行成本最高，中型银行居中，小型银行最为廉价。我认为随着收益率曲线的变化，这一状况将得到调整。更陡峭的收益率曲线会让小型银行更有利可图，因为它们收入中利差收益占比较高，而大银行则更多依赖手续费收入。这种利差收入的增长几乎没有额外成本，也就是说，当利润空间扩大时，他们并不会给员工加薪。

So the big banks are the most expensive, mid caps are in the middle, and the small banks are the cheapest. And so I think that gets fixed with the change in the slip of the yield curve. I think a steeper yield curve will make the the smaller banks more profitable because they have a higher percentage of the revenue from spread income, where the big banks have more fee income. And so I think that increase in spread income, it there's not a cost associated with it. So, like, if their margins expand, they don't pay their people more.

高管们可能会拿到更大笔的奖金。但大体上，大部分收入会直接转化为净利润，这对小型银行的影响更为显著。同时，我预计估值差异也将回归常态，小型银行的估值会重新高于大型银行。不过，银行业确实存在规模经济效应，所以我们确实需要更多并购。美国至今仍有4000家银行。

They may pay the executives bigger bonuses. But, like, for the most part, most of that revenue drops to the bottom line, and it'll have a bigger effect on the small banks. And then I also expect the valuation differentials to go back to normal where the smaller banks have higher valuations than the big banks. But, yeah, there's definitely economies of scale in banking, so we really need more m and a. We still have 4,000 banks in the country.

我刚入行时，美国有13000家银行，现在缩减到4000家。我们是全球唯一拥有如此多金融机构的经济体。比如加拿大最多只有十几家，或者说五大行加上些小银行，总数不超过十几家。因此未来会有更多整合。

Like, when I first got in the business, we had 13,000 banks. We're down to 4,000. You know, we're the only economy in the world that has many financial institutions. Like, most Canada has a dozen or, you know, five large ones, but, you know, a dozen at most banks. And so we'll see more consolidation.

摩根大通是个非凡的企业。作为最大银行，他们正在抢占市场份额——没有收购任何当地银行，就直接在波士顿、费城和华盛顿特区开设分行，甚至在北达科他州也开了分行，现在他们的网点已覆盖全美50个州。

And JPMorgan's a remarkable company. Like, they're the biggest bank, they're taking market share. So they entered Boston, Philadelphia, and DC without buying any banks in those cities. They just started opening branches, and they're just taking share. They I think they even opened a branch in North Dakota, so now they have a branch in all 50 states.

他们的技术平台投入更多资金，拥有最好的应用程序，业务办理便捷，正在不断夺取市场份额。美国银行也在抢占份额，部分来自富国银行——由于资产上限限制，富国无法扩张。

You know, their tech platform, their tech, they can spend more money, and they have the best apps, and they're just taking share. They're easy to do business with. And so BofA is taking share. Some of that's from Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo's had this asset cap, so they couldn't grow.

但大银行也在吞食中小型银行的市场。如果没有更多并购整合，最终只能通过摩根大通和美国银行的有机增长来实现行业集中。我们需要中型银行联合起来，才能与这些巨头形成真正竞争。

But they're also taking the big banks. The big two are taking share from the the small mid cap banks. If we don't have more consolidation, you know, it's just we're gonna get consolidation through organic growth of JPMorgan and BofA. And so we need the mid cap banks to get together to have real competitors to those those companies.

崔，你提到大银行仍在开设分行很有意思。想起我父亲就特别喜欢去他那个社区小银行，每周至少要去一次，就为了和银行职员打个招呼。我偶尔也会去实体网点取现，毕竟离家近很方便。刚毕业的年轻人恐怕很多人要么从没主动去过实体网点，要么就只用网上银行服务。

Trey It's interesting you highlighted that some of the big banks are still opening branches. I think back to my dad, he loves stopping by his small community bank. Don't know how often, probably at least once a week he's stopping by just to say hi to his banker and whatnot. And I'll occasionally go to a bank just to pick up cash, the physical location, it's convenient, not too far from me. People that just start getting out of college, I'd imagine a lot of them either haven't been to a physical branch by their own will or they just use the online banking and whatnot.

你如何看待在线银行市场的发展？我知道有很多在线银行正在推出。似乎每年我都能看到新的银行出现。请多谈谈这个领域的发展情况。

How do you see sort of the online banking market developing? I know there's a lot of online banks being launched. Seems like every year I see a new one come out. So talk more about how that space is developing.

是的。我是说，你说得对。自2010年2月以来，银行网点的客流量每年都在下降。所以去网点的人越来越少。尽管大银行还在开设新网点，但它们都位于新的地理区域。

Yeah. So, I mean, you're right. Branch traffic has declined every year since 02/2010. So less people are going to branches. Even though the big banks are opening branches, they're in new geographies.

我认为如果你看看华盛顿特区，摩根大通在整个特区大约有二十到二十五个网点。这些网点分布在弗吉尼亚、马里兰和华盛顿特区。我猜二十年前，如果他们进入特区市场，可能需要八十个网点。而现在你不需要在两英里内就有网点，因为你一年只去几次。比如，你可以开车十英里到摩根大通的网点，因为你一年只去两次。

I think if you look at DC, I think JPMorgan has about twenty, twenty five branches across the whole city of of DC. Like, it's in Virginia, Maryland, DC. And, you know, I would guess twenty years ago, if they entered DC, they'd probably have to have 80 branches. And so now you don't need to go to a branch within two miles because you only go to the branch a few times a year. Like, you'll you could drive 10 miles to drive to the JPMorgan branch because you only do it twice a year.

所以可以用更少的网点覆盖更多地区。这增加了银行业的竞争强度。以前我们有跨州设立分行的法律限制，摩根大通不能随便进入弗吉尼亚州。当这些跨州限制取消后，银行无需收购其他银行就能进入新市场，可以自由扩张。所以银行业的竞争正在加剧。

So you can cover more geographies with fewer. And so that increases the the competitive intensity of the of the industry. Like, we used to have interstate branching laws where JPMorgan couldn't just enter Virginia. When those interstate branching laws went down, banks could enter new geographies without buying banks or without, you know, or just letting them go into any geography at all. So the competitive intensity is increasing in banking.

我认为在线银行才是对银行盈利能力的真正威胁。它们提供更高的利率，操作便捷，存款到账速度比传统银行快。在线银行正在抢占市场份额。

Online banks are, I guess, the real threats to profitability of banking. Like, they're paying higher rates. They're easy to do business with. There's ways that, you know, they give you credit on your deposits faster than the legacy banks. The online banks are just gonna take share.

这是另一种加剧银行业竞争的方式。当我说竞争加剧时，意味着利润率下降，回报率降低。所以我认为银行业的长期趋势是回报率走低。这就是为什么银行不是最佳投资选择。虽然我管理着一个金融基金，但我绝不会说'嘿'...

So it's another way to increase the competitive intensity of banking. And when I say increase competitive intensity, that means margins going down, returns going down. So, I mean, I think the long term trajectory for banking is lower returns. That's why banks aren't the greatest thing. Like, I run a financials fund, but I would never just say, hey.

让我们一起投资KRE（区域性银行ETF）二十年吧。这不是个好策略。当然有些银行经营良好，我们可以在它们估值较低时进行投资。

Let's go invest in the KRE together for the next twenty years. Like, that's not a great strategy. Like, there's some banks that are well run. We can invest in them. We can invest in banks when they're cheap.

我们不能在未来二十年里只投资于普通银行。你看，那不是软件行业，也不是半导体行业。这是一个平均甚至低于平均水平的行业，回报率正在下降。所以，我只是意识到了这一点。

We can't just invest in the average bank for the next twenty years. Like, that's just it's not software. It's not semiconductors. It's an average to below average industry that where returns are going down. So, you know, I'm just aware of that.

我对银行股并非一成不变。有些时候值得持有它们。我认为现在正是时候，但并非总是如此。

Like, I'm not a permeable on banks. There's times to own them. I think right now is the time to own them, but it's not always the case.

我几乎怀疑你是否低估了银行业。我知道你发现了很多优质银行，无论是大型、中型还是小型，你都会说，嘿，这些领域都有优质银行，但我要买便宜的，对吧？这也是我欣赏你策略的地方——寻找潜在机会，通过估值扩张为投资者创造回报。在你的基金里，似乎既有像世界第一公民银行这样的高质量企业，注定长期增长，可能价格也不低；

I almost wonder if you're not giving the banking sector enough credit. I know you find a lot of good banks that are out there and you look at the large banks, the mid sized and the small ones and you say, Hey, there's quality banks within all these segments, but I'm going to buy the cheap ones. Right? That's what I also appreciate about your strategy is looking for potential and opportunities for multiple expansion in generating returns for your investors. It seems that within your fund, you'll have say the really high quality businesses, like the First Citizens of the world that are bound to grow for a really long time, might not be the cheapest company either.

同时你也持有今天我们提到的许多过于便宜的股票。一旦它们达到某个估值水平，你就乐意脱手。你认为这种组合在你的投资组合中是什么样的？那些你愿意持有五到十年的高质量公司，和那些达到特定估值就愿意卖出的公司，比例如何？

And then you also have, we've mentioned plenty of stocks today that are just too cheap. Once they reach a certain valuation, you're happy to part ways with them. What What do you think that sort of mix looks like in your portfolio of some of these high quality names you can see yourself owning five, ten years from now and other names that you'd be happy to part ways with if the valuation reached a certain level?

我觉得大概是30%到40%的名字属于我会长期持有的类型。然后60%到70%的股票，只要价格合适就会出售。保持投资组合的流动性，不断转向金融领域下一个便宜的股票或板块。是的。

I mean, I think it's like 30 or 40% names that are I kind of think of as like enduring. I'm gonna hold them for a long time. And then, you know, 60 or 70%, it's like they're for sale at the right price. And, you know, keep that turnover of the portfolio, move it on to the next cheap stock or cheap sector within financials going. Yeah.

这大概就是我的组合比例。在创办基金前，我在GSAM工作，跟随一位叫赫伯·埃勒斯的投资经理。他常说，如果你持有一家伟大公司的股票，永远不要卖出。这非常像查理·芒格的投资风格。所以我确实保留了部分投资组合中的股票，就是那些我想长期持有的。

I think that's probably the mix. Before I started my fund, worked at GSAM, and the PM that I worked for is a guy named Herb Ehlers. And he used to preach, if you ever own a stock in a great company, never sell it. And so, you know, very much a Charlie Munger investment style. So I do keep some of my portfolio in stocks that I'm like, I just wanna own the stock for

长期持有。那么我们来谈谈Robinhood。我觉得只有真正精通此道的人才能在卖空某只股票赚钱后，不久又做多它并最终获得数倍收益。这正是你对Robinhood的操作。你在2023年11月买入这只股票，至今仍持有少量仓位，虽然不如当初那么多。

a long time. So let's talk about Robinhood. So I feel that only a true master of their craft can make money shorting a stock and then turn around not too long after and go long before it becomes a multibagger. So that's exactly what you did with Robinhood. This is a stock you bought in November 2023 and you actually still hold a smaller position today, not as big as it once was.

自11月3日起，这支股票在不到两年内上涨了超过14倍。这种情况并不常见。你能看到一支股票涨这么多已属罕见，更别说持有了。让我们回顾这段历程。2021年，Robinhood上市了。

Since November '3, the stock is up over 14 times in less than two years. It's just not very common. You see a stock go up that much, let alone own a stock that goes up that much. So let's walk through this story. It was in 2021, Robinhood went public.

之后某个时间点，你最终做空了这支股票。谈谈你当时观察到了什么。

And at some point after that, you ended up going short the stock. So talk about what you were seeing at that time.

是的。我认为当时市场环境催生了大量投机行为，SPAC公司纷纷上市，许多资质不佳的企业带着虚高估值进入市场，2021年整个就是投机狂潮。做空Robinhood是因为，我觉得其估值相对于业务发展阶段显得过高，他们亏损严重但估值却居高不下。我预判投机泡沫会消退，所以这是参与做空的便捷途径。

Yeah. I mean, I think the response to the environment, there was a lot of speculation the SPACs were coming public. There was a lot of junky companies coming public and a lot of inflated valuations and just a speculative frenzy in 2021. And so, you know, shorting Robinhood, like, I thought the valuation compared to where they were in their business was high, and, you know, they were losing a ton of money, and the valuation was high. And I thought the speculative bubble was gonna recede, and so it was an easy way for me to participate in the downside there.

我知道他们每股有8美元现金，我从25美元做空到10美元。当跌到10美元时，考虑到每股8美元的现金储备，我认为做空该结束了。但我持续关注这家公司，我欣赏经纪业务模式，对他们实施的业务变革印象深刻。通过削减成本、推出新产品，他们已经连续几个季度盈利。

And I knew they had $8 a share in cash, and I shorted it from 25 down to 10. And then at 10, you know, with $8 a share in cash, I was like, you know, that the short's done. But I continue to follow the company. I, you know, I like brokerage businesses, and I was impressed with the changes they were making to the business. They put up a couple of profitable quarters by reducing costs, introducing some new products.

我非常看好他们的新产品路线图，这些新品可能加速客户增长。后来遇到个机会：他们公布23年财报时，由于两个暂时性环境因素导致季度业绩未达预期，股价跌至8美元我的买入价，而他们仍保持每股8美元现金。

I really like their product road map for introducing new products. I was like, they could accelerate customer growth with all these new products. And then I just got an opportunity. They reported the '23 earnings, and there were two environmental reasons why they missed the quarter, and I just thought they were temporary. And it traded down to the $8 where I bought it, and they still had that $8 a share in cash.

关键在于保持灵活并理解业务本质。从技术面看，股价已构筑大底部——22年3月见底后，直到23年11月都处于横盘状态，形成长期基底。很幸运我刚买入就迎来上涨，这纯属时机把握和运气。

So, you know, just being flexible and understanding the business. Also, like, technically, it had built a big base. Like, know, it had covered in March '22. And from March '22 to November '23, the stock kinda was flattish and had built that long base. So it I got fortunate that it took off soon after I bought it, and that was just good timing, good luck.

在完成底部构筑后，下跌空间有限，经过充分盘整后迎来突破时机。崔，我们稍事休息，听听今日赞助商的消息。

They had built that base, didn't think there was much downside and had it kind of treaded water, put in its marked its time to make a move higher. Trey Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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好的，回到

All right, back to

节目中来。Clay，你的投资方法中真正让我印象深刻的一点——我认为这也是基金能产生超额收益的关键——就是对市场情绪的敏锐把握，对吧？一家优秀的公司未必是值得买入的好股票，而一家普通的公司却可能因为市场情绪极度悲观成为绝佳买点。2021年时，整个科技股板块的情绪都过于狂热。如果你相信市场长期是理性的，那么这些股票在当时反而可能成为很好的做空标的。

the show. Clay What really stands out to me here in your approach, and I think a lot of the alpha you're generating in the fund is just being aware of sentiment, right? You can have a great company that isn't a great stock to buy and you can have an average company that can be a great buy because the sentiment is just so bad. In 2021, sentiment overall across any technology stock was just too much. It was assuming you believe that markets are rational in the long run, then they can make for a good short in your case.

反过来，当优质公司被过度抛售，股价接近有形账面价值时，由于市场情绪极度悲观，反而会形成巨大的不对称收益机会。详细说说你在2023年11月以接近有形账面价值买入的情况，以及这家公司后来如何发展成为一只暴涨数倍的大牛股。

And on the other side, when a good company just gets way too far beaten down, it's trading near tangible book value that can make for a lot of asymmetry because the sentiment is just so bad. So talk more about you buying it in November '23 near tangible book value and then how the company developed since then and became a huge multibagger.

在我买入股票几周后，美国证交会批准了比特币ETF。于是加密货币市场开始起飞，对吧？Robinhood作为少数不直接持有比特币却能参与加密市场的渠道之一，从中获益良多。再加上他们的产品创新，客户增长速度开始加快。

A couple weeks after I bought the stock, the SEC approved the Bitcoin ETF. So the crypto market started taking off. Right? And so Robinhood's one of the few ways to participate in the crypto market without owning Bitcoin directly, and so they got some benefit there. And then their product innovations, they had customer growth accelerate.

客户存款占资产比例从2024年初的18%左右飙升到了40%。这真正推动了增长势头，他们持续推出新产品，交易活跃度不断提升。后来大选结束后加密货币交易量暴增。他们还在不断推出新功能——有些产品甚至让人惊讶，比如直到2024年之前，夫妻居然不能开联名账户，必须各自持有独立账户。

Customer deposits went from, like, 18% of assets to 40% of assets during 2024, it was. And so that really got growth going, and they continue to introduce new products and activity ramped up, and then, you know, crypto trading exploded after the election. And they've continued to introduce new products. And some of the products, like, are a little bit shocking that, like, until the '24, you couldn't open up a joint account with your spouse. Each had to have individual accounts.

所以有些产品创新并不需要多高深的技术，只是补齐了券商本该提供的基础服务。他们推出了期货交易，据说未来几天还将开放做空功能。这又回到我的持仓策略——我持有这只股票很长时间，去年末开始逐步对冲，今年持续减仓，现在几乎完全清仓了。

So some the products were not rocket science. They're just getting around to all the things you need to offer as a brokerage firm, but they introduced futures trading. Yet I think they're just introducing short selling in the coming days. And then this goes back to, you know, I held onto the stock for a long time. I started hedging it late last year and through this year, and I'm almost completely out of position.

我还留了点零头仓位，万一它变成网红股还能沾点光。不过某种程度上可以说它已经是网红股了。这么做主要是避免价值投资者常犯的过早卖出错误——你知道的，达到目标价就离场。

I still have a tag end piece if it becomes a meme stock, and I'll benefit a little bit. But you could argue it already has become a meme stock to some extent. But it's just avoiding that value investor mistake of selling too early. You know, hit my price target. I'm out.

市场的推动力能让股价远超你的想象。记得去年底这只股票曾涨到30美元左右，当时盈利预期大约是1.5美元。但根据模型推算，到2026年可能达到3美元。我当时就觉得，这值得关注。

Market can take stocks a lot higher than you you think. And then, you know, also, like, the stock got up to I think it was, like, $30 late last year. You know, I think earnings estimates were about a dollar 50. And I looked at the models, and I could get the $3 in 2026. And so I was like, okay.

虽然股价已涨至30美元高位，但我预见两年后其每股收益可达3美元，市盈率仅10倍。这意味着即便已有大幅上涨，仍有可观上行空间。当然，我对2026年3美元的预测基于相当乐观的用户增长和交易活跃度假设——这并非基准情景，而是想探讨：其他人看到了什么可能性？潜在涨幅究竟有多大？

The stock's way up at $30, but I can see in two years, it can earn $3, 10 times earnings that even though it's made a big move, there's still a lot of upside here. So, like, you know, my $3 estimate for 2026 had some pretty bullish assumptions about customer growth and trading activity. And so, like, I'm not saying $3 is the base case, but I'm just saying, like, okay. Well, what are other people seeing? Like, what's the potential upside?

关键是要学会跳出股价历史轨迹思考：它未来能走多远？当前高位接盘的投资者们，他们究竟在预期什么？

And just being comfortable of, like, okay. Ignore where the stock's been. Where could it go? What are people looking at it? You know, people who are buying the stock at these highs, what are they thinking?

必须适应这种动量效应——上涨的股票往往持续上涨。这对价值投资者而言确实是个别扭的持仓姿势...

And just being comfortable with momentum and stocks that are moving higher probably continue to move higher. That's an uncomfortable one:thirty position for

对吧？放任股票不断上涨。但要想保持收益，这恰恰是必须承受的。

a value investor, right? Just letting stocks go up. But that's what you have to do to keep your returns intact.

确实。过去几年我领悟最深的就是经营杠杆的威力。以Uber、Spotify和Robinhood为例，这些处于生命周期早期的企业起初并不追求盈利，但用户基础稳固后，利润杠杆效应就会显现。

Yeah. And the past couple years, I think one of the lessons for me is just understanding how powerful operating leverage can be. So a few examples that come to mind of some businesses that maybe don't care about profitability since they're early on in their life cycle. Then once they built up their customer base, then they can start to pull these profit levers. A few that come to mind are Uber, Spotify, and Robinhood.

以Robinhood财报为例：2021年净亏损超30亿，2022年亏10亿，但最近十二个月净利润已达17亿。随着收入增长，这个技术平台的低成本优势使得利润端呈现爆发式增长——这就是经营杠杆的经典案例。当市场尚未意识到这种潜力时，耐心等待利润体现在报表上至关重要。

So looking at Robinhood's financials, for example, if we just look at the net income line, 2021, they were losing over $3,000,000,000 2022, they're losing a billion. But in the last twelve months, net income is 1,700,000,000.0. So as revenue's growing, the profit side can really ramp up significantly since they can have a low cost base, right, since it's very much a tech platform. So that's one of the lessons I think that I get from looking at a stock like Robinhood when the market doesn't appreciate the level of operating leverage and just being patient with letting that profitability come through the bottom line.

我认为这个观点很到位。我还有一只股票兼具高经营杠杆和财务杠杆，那就是Anywhere房地产公司，也就是原来的Realogy。他们拥有Coldwell Banker品牌，并以固定成本模式运营业务。

I think that's well put. There's another stock that I have that has a lot of operating leverage and a lot of financial leverage is anywhere real estate. And this is the old Realogy. They they own Coldwell Banker. And they run it as a fixed cost business.

佣金则根据房地产交易量浮动计算。这只股票相比几年前房市繁荣时期已大幅下跌，现在人们逐渐意识到：在经营杠杆之上叠加财务杠杆，若现有房屋销售量能回升至500万套，其EBITDA数据可能会爆发性增长。我同意你的观点，经营杠杆作为潜在利好因素经常被市场忽视。

And then the commissions are variable based on volumes of real estate transactions. So, like, this stock is way down from where it was a few years ago when the housing market was booming, and I think people are just coming around to the fact of like, okay. You have financial leverage on top of operating leverage, and the EBITDA numbers could explode here if we get back to 5,000,000 units of existing home sales. I agree with you. Operating leverage is a lot of times underlooked as a a potential upside.

Trey 我还想特别提到盈透证券。作为他们的满意客户，这家折扣券商与Robinhood同属经纪行业。由创始人领导且持股比例可观——我认为市场对其创始人持股动向存在顾虑。

Trey I also wanted to be sure to mention Interactive Brokers. I'm a very happy customer of Interactive Brokers. They're in the discount broker business, in the broker business just like Robinhood is. They are founder led and their founder owns a significant part of this business. I believe that's one of the concerns with this business, I think, is what's going to happen with a lot of the shares he owns.

过去两年该股惊人涨势中我未能参与确实遗憾。他们多年来持续有机增长客户规模，终获市场认可。想听听你对盈透证券的看法，据你私下所言应该研究过但并未持有？

I've been a bit disappointed not to participate in this stock's spectacular run over the past couple of years. They've been organically growing their customer counts over the years and the market's finally taken notice. I'd be curious to get your thoughts on Interactive Brokers. I don't believe you've owned it, but you have looked at it from based on what you've said off air.

是的，我管理的共同基金持有少量头寸，但对冲基金中遗憾缺席。因对买入价过于严格而错失良机——去年12月买入Robinhood后曾关注它，这确实是支 Phenomenal 的股票，业务出色，我本人也是其客户。

Yeah. I do own a few shares in the mutual fund that I manage, but I don't own it in the hedge fund, unfortunately. I just was a little bit too disciplined on the price I was willing to pay, and it ran away from me. I was looking at it December '23 after I bought Robinhood, and it's been a phenomenal stock, and it's a great business. I've been a customer too.

我将其作为主经纪商使用，他们为我的业务提供了极大支持。其平台固定成本特性带来显著经营杠杆，成本控制出色，资产负债表也较为保守。

I use it as a prime broker. They've been super helpful in in helping me with my business. I think they keep costs low. I think the fixed cost nature of their platform gives them a lot of operating leverage. You know, I think it's a conservative balance sheet.

他们的信用评级甚至高于摩根士丹利，作为资产托管场所既安全又高效，确实是项卓越的业务。

I think their credit rating's higher than Morgan Stanley's. And so I think that's super interesting as far as a safe place to custody assets. I think it's very efficient, and it's a great business.

Trey，我还想确保讨论一下WEX公司。在你最近的来信中，你强调了关于这家公司的投资论点。那么请谈谈WEX公司，这家公司是做什么的？以及你将它们加入投资组合的论点是什么？

Trey I wanted to also be sure to touch on WEX Inc. So in your most recent letter, you highlighted your thesis on this company. So talk a little bit about WEX Inc. What's this company do and what's your thesis on adding it to the portfolio?

是的。WEX是一家金融科技公司，他们发行加油卡。公司有三块业务，其中50%是加油卡业务。

Yeah. So WEX is a financial technology company. They issue fuel cards. So they have three businesses. 50% of the business is fuel cards.

假设你经营一家拥有车队服务业务的公司，给所有司机发放WEX加油卡。加油时司机需输入密码和车辆里程数，这能有效减少浪费或小型车队公司的损耗——比如防止司机用加油卡给私家车加油。同时系统会提供大量数据帮助你评估司机表现。

You own a fleet of trucks with your service business. You give all your drivers a WEX fuel card. They have to type in a password and the car mileage or the truck mileage when they get gas, and it just reduces waste or, you know, shrinkage on your part as owning a small company fleet. They're not filling up their personal car with the gas card. And they give you a lot of data of how to evaluate your drivers.

这块业务一直表现良好。他们利用该业务产生的现金收购了另外两项业务：一个是健康储蓄账户业务，属于高估值业务能提供低成本存款；实际上他们旗下有家银行，用健康储蓄账户的低成本存款来为加油卡业务的应收账款提供资金，形成了很好的协同效应。

And so that's been a good business. They've used some of the cash from that business. They bought two other businesses. They have an a health savings account business, which is high multiple business that provides low cost deposits. They actually have a bank where the low cost deposits from the health savings accounts fund the receivables from the fuel card business, so there's nice integration there.

此外他们还拥有企业支付业务，这部分面临些挑战。企业支付约占业务的20%，其中一半是为在线旅行社服务。由于Expedia和Booking.com都将部分业务收归自营，导致这块业务有些挣扎。但该股八年来股价停滞，估值已大幅回落，目前EBITDA倍数仅为8倍。

And then they have a corporate payments business, which has had some struggles. The corporate payments is about 20% of the business, and half of that 20% is servicing online travel agents. And both Expedia and booking.com have brought some business in in house. And so that's been a little bit of struggle, but the stock has not done anything for eight years since the valuations come way in. It's trading for eight times EBITDA.

今年早些时候他们以每股154美元进行了要约收购。公司公开声明将不再进行收购，而是集中自由现金流偿还为股票回购举借的债务。CEO增持了股票，且三年来一直有激进投资者参与。我认为激进投资者在监督管理层，管理层也心知肚明，因此不会做出任何损害股东利益的行为。

They did a tender offer at a $154 a share earlier this year. They've publicly stated they're not making any more acquisitions because they're gonna focus their free cash flow on paying down this debt that they took out to buy back shares. The CEO bought some shares. There's been an activist involved for about three years, and so I feel like the activist is watching management. The management's aware of the activist, so they're not gonna do any anything that is non shareholder friendly.

我认为估值将会回升。有个奇怪的现象：三月份要约收购结束后，随着解放纪念日到来，股价竟然跌穿了收购价，最低触及120美元——考虑到公司刚以154美元回购了10%股份，这简直不可思议。不过现在股价已有所回升。

And I think valuations come back up. And so the it was weird. Like, they closed the tender at the March, and then with Liberation Day, the stock traded through the tender price. And so it traded down to a $120 a share, which is kinda crazy to me given that the company just bought back 10% of the shares at a 154. So it's up from that.

你知道，这只股票现在交易价格在170到175左右。市盈率仍为8倍。我认为我们只需要再多一些时间。管理层也在做正确的事，对业务进行一些再投资。他们已经开始在燃料卡业务上投入更多营销资金，并在另外两项业务中招聘了一些销售人员。

You know, the stock's trading around a 170, 175 right now. It's still eight times EBITDA. I think we just need some more time. I think management's also doing a good thing of reinvesting a little bit in the business. They've started spending some more marketing dollars in the fuel card business and have also hired some salespeople in the other two businesses.

我认为收入增长将会加速。虽然不是大幅增长，但边际上会是积极的。我只是觉得估值太低了。一年前，股价还在240美元。我们轻松就能回到150美元，毫无问题。

I think revenue growth is gonna accelerate here. Not in a huge fashion, but I think at the margin, it's gonna be positive. I just think the valuation's too low. A year ago, the stock was at $240. We could easily get back there one:fifty with no problem.

是的。关于这家公司，我觉得在金融领域，你某种程度上受益于有机会观察许多平淡无奇、没什么大动作的企业，对吧？我是说，WEX并不是高增长公司。你不会看到像Robinhood那样爆炸性的盈利，但你会注意到一些幕后动态，比如有激进投资者介入。你看到更多股票回购之类的催化剂。

Yeah. I think some of the things that stands out to me about this company, just think being in the financial space, you sort of benefit from having the opportunity to just look at a lot of boring businesses that aren't doing a lot, right? I mean, WEX, it's not a high revenue grower. You're not seeing exploding earnings like you are at Robinhood, but you are seeing some things happening under the hood where an activist is getting involved. You're seeing this catalyst of more share repurchases and whatnot.

就像你提到的，股价跌到120美元。有时市场就是会因短期担忧做出愚蠢行为，无论是经济问题、燃油价格下跌的担忧，还是燃油销量下降等等，而像你这样的人就会抓住这些30到50美元的独特机会。

Like you mentioned, the stock trading down to 120. Sometimes the market just does some silly things just on short term concerns, whether it's the economy, concerns around fuel prices dropping, fuel volumes dropping and whatnot, and someone like you coming in and taking advantage of those thirty:fifty unique opportunities.

没错。这是个市值40亿美元的公司。规模不算最大。没什么人讨论它，对吧？

Yeah. I mean, it's a $4,000,000,000 market cap company. It's not the largest company. People don't talk about it. Right?

我是说，这只股票七年来毫无起色，一直横盘。投资者对它普遍冷漠。所以对我来说，股权回购要约才是重新审视的契机——这属于特殊情况，回购如此大量的股票，相当于给自己戴上了手铐。

I mean, the stock hasn't done anything. It's flat for seven years. Like, there's a lot of investor apathy about it. And so I think the tender offer for me was really what sparked taking another look of, like, okay. That's a special situation type event of buying back that much in stock and really kind of putting the handcuffs on themselves.

那时候除了偿还债务，现金什么都做不了。这就是个明确的立场宣示。所以我认为这就是催化剂。很多人对股权回购要约这类明确的价值信号事件无动于衷。

Like, you can't do anything with your cash except pay down debt at that point. And so that's a real stake in the ground. So I think that's, the catalyst. There's a a lot of people don't respond to events like tender offers that are clear signals that there's value there.

据我所知，Trey Tender要约并不常见。对于可能不太熟悉的听众，能否请您解释一下这是如何运作的，以及什么是股权收购要约？

Trey Tender offers are something, to my knowledge, don't happen all too often. For those in the audience that might not be familiar, could you just explain how this works and what a tender offer is?

是的。当时股价是170美元，管理层希望回购大量股票。他们没有选择通过经纪商每天在市场上买入，而是决定发起股权收购要约。他们向美国证券交易委员会提交文件，宣布将在一个月后购买公司10%的股份，价格区间在150至170美元之间。

Yeah. So the stock was a $170 and management wanted to buy back a bunch of stock. And so instead of going to a brokerage firm and buying shares every day in the market, they said, okay. We're gonna make a tender offer. And they ask they bought make a filing with the SEC, they say, okay.

投资者可以通过经纪商表示愿意以160、150或170美元的价格出售股份。最终确定能购得全部10%股份的清算价为154美元，处于价格区间的低端。这说明股东愿意以相对低价出让股份。

A month from now, we're gonna buy 10% of the company, this many shares, and we're gonna buy it somewhere in the price between 150 and a $170. And investors can go to their broker and say, I'd be willing to tender my shares at a $160 or a 150 or 170. And they look at what price is the clearing price of to buy all 10% of the company shares. And in this situation, it was 154, so relatively at the low end of the range. So, you know, investors, you know, shareholders were willing to give up their shares at relatively low price.

这表明管理层与股东对公司价值的看法存在分歧。但管理层能一次性回购如此大量股票，说明他们非常有信心没有支付过高对价。150-170美元的价格区间在他们看来是划算的交易。大规模回购减少了流通股数量，在净利润不变的情况下提升了每股收益。

So it just shows that management and the shareholders had different views of the value of the company. Right? And so but, you know, I think that to buy back that much of the stock in one swoop, like, the management had to be super confident that they weren't overpaying. And I think that was a pretty strong signal that they thought in that range of a 150 to a 170, they were getting a good deal of buying in those shares. Buying back that much stock helps EPS growth because you have fewer shares of the same net income.

估值足够低，使得为融资收购所发行债务的成本足够低，对盈利增长具有增值效应。不过市场上股权收购要约并不多见，每年只有零星几例。但这是很好的投资灵感来源，因为公司通常不会大规模回购除非认为股价被低估。当然并非所有案例都成功，但多数情况下确实如此。

The valuation was low enough that the cost of the debt to fund the tender offer makes the transaction was low enough that it was accretive to earnings growth. But there aren't that many tender offers out there. Like, there's a handful each year, but it's a good source of ideas because companies don't tend to buy back that much stock unless they think the stock's undervalued. That's not always the case. Like, not all tender offers work as far as owning the stock, but a lot of times they do.

事实上，我最早了解股权收购是在九十年代初通用动力公司案例中。巴菲特正是因为其收购要约而买入股票——他认为这是通用动力股价被严重低估的强烈信号。

In fact, like, I think I first learned about tender offers when General Dynamics in the early nineties did a tender offer, and Buffett bought the stock because of the tender offer. Like, he thought that was such a strong signal that General Dynamics stock was cheap. When they announced the tender offer, he bought the stock.

Trey 看起来股权收购的核心逻辑在于：当公司希望回购相当比例的股份时，相比在公开市场零星收购1%、2%的股份，采用要约收购方式更为高效。也就是说，这种动态机制的本质在于大规模集中回购，是这样吗？

Trey It seems that part of the dynamic of a tender offer is the company wants to buy such a significant portion of the shares. It's more efficient for them to do going the tender route rather than just going out and buying shares in the open market saying they're buying 1% or 2% or whatnot. So that's sort of the dynamic of the tender is they're buying a significant portion of the shares back. Is that right?

威廉说得完全正确。你能在更短时间内获得更多的股份。

William Yeah, is exactly right. You can get a lot more shares in a faster amount of time.

关于这一点，我觉得你的投资论点很有意思，部分原因在于公司估值之所以如此折价，是由于资产负债表上的杠杆作用。如果管理层计划在未来几年偿还约1.5倍的债务，那么自然可以预期会有一定的倍数扩张。所以这某种程度上是

And what's also interesting to me about this, your investment thesis here, is part of the thesis is that one reason why the company's at such a discounted valuation is because of the leverage on the balance sheet. And if management's going to be paying off one:fifty some of this debt over the coming years, then you would expect some multiple expansion naturally from that. So that's sort of one of the

你所期待的评级上调催化剂之一。

catalysts you're looking for rerating.

很多时候会出现去杠杆化。私募股权之所以如此盈利或获得高回报，其中一个原因就是利用了杠杆。我们多次讨论过杠杆，但这里又是一个例子，这家公司带有杠杆，几乎就像一家公开交易的LBL。虽然杠杆率不如私募股权那么高，只有3.5倍。

A lot of times there's deleveraging. One of the things that makes private equity so profitable or, you know, have high returns is the use of leverage. And we've talked about leverage a few times, but, like, this is another example of, like, this is a company with leverage, this is almost like a publicly traded LBL. Think the leverage isn't as high as what private equity uses. It's only three and a half times.

你知道，不是五到六倍，但3.5倍的杠杆足以从股票中获得杠杆回报。投资者在高杠杆运作时会折价股票，但随着杠杆逐渐偿还，公司获得一些增长，债务减少，自然去杠杆化，投资者会更愿意给予公司约1.5倍的更高估值。

You know, it's not five or six times, but three and a half times is plenty of leverage to get leveraged returns from the stock as investors will discount the stock while it runs with high leverage. But then as the leverage gets paid down, they get a little bit of growth and the debt gets paid down, it de leverages naturally, and then investors will be more comfortable putting a higher valuation one:fifty on the company.

太棒了。德里克，再次非常享受这次对话，对我们的听众来说也非常有启发性。总是很高兴邀请你参加。在结束之前，我们给观众一个最后的指引如何？

Excellent. Well, Derek, I really enjoyed this conversation again. Very informative for our listeners. Always enjoy bringing you on. Before I let you go, how about we give the audience a final handoff here?

如果他们想了解更多关于你和你的公司的信息，应该去哪里？

If they'd like to learn more about you and your firm, where should they go?

是的。如果您访问gatorcapital.com并订阅我们的新闻通讯，或者给我发邮件至derek@gatorcapital.com，我很乐意发送我们的投资者信函给您。我不会滥发邮件，每年只发送四封信，每封信包含一个股票投资建议，分享我在投资组合中的操作或一些我认为对您的投资流程可能有帮助的见解。再次感谢邀请我参加节目。

Yeah. If you would come to gatorcapital.com and sign up for our newsletter, or you can send me an email, derek@gatorcapital.com. Be happy to send you our investor letters. I won't spam you, send out four letters a year with one stock idea in each letter, and, you know, just something that I'm doing in the portfolio or some insight that I think I have that hopefully will be additive to your investment process. But I appreciate you having me on the show again.

您的时间与问题都如此慷慨。克莱，非常感谢您。

You're super generous with your time and your questions. I appreciate you, Clay.

非常感谢你，德里克。我也同样感激，希望未来有机会能再次合作。

Well, thank you, Derek. I really appreciate it as well, and hope we can do it again eventually in the future.

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