TIP763：给我18岁自己的投资经验谈 w/ Clay Finck

您正在收听的是TIP节目。

You're listening to TIP.

我18岁就开始投资，坦白说当时完全不懂自己在做什么。有人告诉我股市投资其实就是赌博，有人提醒我要小心谨慎，还有人热情向我推销离岸钻井公司的股票，仿佛我真明白那是什么意思。本期节目中，我将分享此后十三年投资生涯中学到的最重要经验——在投资领域，我几乎犯遍了所有能犯的错误。

I started investing at the age of 18 and frankly, I had no clue what I was doing. Some people told me that investing in the stock market is practically gambling. Some cautioned me to be careful, while others were happy to pitch me on an offshore drilling company as if I had any idea what that actually meant. In today's episode, I'll share the most important lessons I've learned about investing in the thirteen years that followed. When it comes to investing, I've made about every mistake one could make.

虽然远谈不上精通，但这些经验正是我希望18岁迷茫时能有人告诉我的。在这个信息爆炸的时代，或许某位新听众能从中获得一两点启发。这份清单并不完整，随着我不断犯错，它也在持续增长。需要说明的是，这些只是对我个人有价值的经验——我认为重要的，未必适合你和你的目标。

While I've by no means figured it out, this episode contains the lessons that I wish somebody had told me when I was 18 and didn't know where to turn. In a world that's filled with noise coming from all directions, perhaps there's a newer listener out there who would find some value in one or two of these lessons. This isn't an exhaustive list and the whole list just keeps on growing and growing as I make more and more mistakes. I'll also mention that these are of course the lessons that I myself find value in. So just because I see value in them, doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be useful for you and what you're trying to achieve.

接下来，请收听本期特别节目：《给18岁自己的投资课》。

So with that, I bring you today's episode on the investing lessons for my 18 year old self.

自2014年以来，通过超过1.8亿次下载量的验证，我们深入研究金融市场，解读白手起家亿万富翁最推崇的著作，助您未雨绸缪，从容应对变局。现在有请主持人克莱。

Since 2014 and through more than 180,000,000 downloads, we've studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Clay

欢迎收听《投资者播客》，我是主持人克莱·芬克。本期节目就像写给年轻自己的一封信，并非放之四海皆准的指南——对我有效的方法未必适合你。

Welcome to The Investor's Podcast. I'm your host, Clay Finck. Finck. This episode is intended to be like a letter to my younger self. It's not intended to be a one size fits all guide and know that what works for me might not be what works for you.

投资既是艺术也是科学，没有必胜法则。但我们需要建立基本准则和框架来应对财富保值增值的课题。投资是我人生最大乐趣之一，很荣幸今天能与各位探讨。我花了数小时梳理投资历程，为当年那个对投资一无所知的18岁少年提炼出12条核心经验。第一条要分享的是：最好的投资时机就是今天。

Investing is part art and part science. So there's no exact one way to win the game, but we do need to give ourselves some sort of guidelines and frameworks to help tackle the issue of preserving and growing our wealth. Investing has been one of the greatest joys of my life and I feel honored to have the chance to chat about it with you here today. I sat down for hours reflecting on my own investment journey to distill the top 12 lessons that I most needed to hear as an 18 year old who knew next to nothing about investing. The first lesson I'd like to share with my 18 year old self is that the best time to invest is today.

当我打开CNBC或查看最新财经新闻时，总能听到市场被高估的论调。在首次投资1000美元于一家离岸钻井公司就血本无归后，我实在不愿再因投资高估市场而亏损。2017年大学毕业时，市场普遍认为股价虚高且崩盘在即。但自那时起，标普500指数已上涨近三倍。现在回想起来，我很庆幸没有听从那些'等待下一次大跌'的建议。

When I turned on CNBC or checked up on the latest financial news, I consistently heard claims that the market was overvalued. And after losing 100% of my money on my very first $1,000 investment in an offshore drilling company, I certainly wasn't looking forward to losing money again by investing in an overvalued market. I graduated college in 2017 and I remember quite well that the narrative back then was that the market was overpriced and a market crash was just around the corner. Since that point in time, the S and P 500 has increased by nearly three times. So I'm certainly glad that I didn't listen to that advice that said to wait for the next major downturn.

彼得·林奇有句名言：'投资者因防范或预测市场调整所损失的金钱，远超过市场调整本身造成的损失。'我确信市场还会下跌，但完全无法预知何时发生。正如林奇所说：'没人能预测利率走势、经济未来方向或股市涨跌。忘掉所有预测，专注于你投资企业的实际经营状况。'即便你能预测下次下跌，也很难精准把握投资时机从中获利。

Peter Lynch shared the wise words, Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves. I'm certain that another downturn is coming, but I certainly have no clue when it will be coming. As Lynch also shared, Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what's actually happening to the companies in which you have invested. And even if you could predict the next downturn, it would likely be incredibly difficult to benefit from it by investing at the exact right time.

假设我从2017年到2020年存了一大笔现金，结果2020年3月新冠疫情爆发，市场突然暴跌30%。当时有无数理由不该投资：经济停摆导致企业盈利崩溃，所有人都变得极度悲观。

Let's say I saved up a good chunk of cash from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty, and then COVID comes along in March 2020. All of a sudden, the whole market is down 30%. There would have been countless reasons as to why you shouldn't have invested at that point in time. Earnings were collapsing due to the economy shutting down. Everyone turned pessimistic.

政府官员陷入恐慌模式，忙着向民众撒钱防止大规模失业。熊市理由不胜枚举，市场就像断线风筝般坠落。但就在你最意想不到的时候，市场触底后迅速反弹并创出新高。想要精准把握投资时机极其困难，几乎不可能持续做到。

Government officials went into panic mode and were shoving cash into people's hands to ensure that not too many people got laid off. The list goes on. There were plenty of reasons to be bearish as the market was just dropping like a rock. And then when you least expect it, the market bottomed and quickly went on to hit new highs. Timing the right time to invest is difficult and near impossible to do consistently.

那些预测到金融危机的投资者，职业生涯中或许有一两次精准择时的聪明之举，但多数时候都是错的。投资界充斥着许多听起来很专业的'专家'，给出的建议却糟糕透顶。要警惕你听取建议的对象——金融圈里某些最自信的人往往拥有最大话筒和最差业绩记录。在认真采纳某人建议前，请先了解其历史表现。

Investors that predicted the great financial crisis beforehand may have been smart once or twice in their career in trying to time the market, but they've typically been wrong more often than they've been right. The investment industry is an area where you have a lot of so called experts who sound smart that give terrible advice. So be careful who you listen to. Some of the most confident people in finance are given the biggest microphones and have some of the worst track records. Before taking someone's advice too seriously, understand first, that person's track record.

其次要明白他们言论背后的动机。如果某人向我推荐股票，而其过去十年投资回报率只有5%，这个事实就该影响我对该公司的判断。反之，若某位年化20%的集中投资者将三分之一仓位押注某只股票，我自然会用不同眼光看待。重点不是盲目追随高回报投资者，而是考量建议者的历史业绩及其所处的激励机制。主流财经媒体的激励机制决定了——

And second, understand the incentives behind why they say what they do. If someone's pitching me a stock and their investment returns over the past decade are say 5% per year, then that should be factored in to my opinion and view of the company. On the other hand, if a concentrated investor that has returns of 20% per year just put a third of their portfolio into one stock, then I would be looking at that stock a little bit differently. The point isn't to follow investors with the best returns, but to consider the track record of the person giving advice and the incentive structure that they're operating on. So if you look at the incentive structure of a major financial news source, the people that work there might want to deliver good content that's valuable to their listeners and viewers.

他们本质上经营的是点击量生意。现实中，预言下次崩盘或极端观点总能带来巨大流量，这就是他们运作的底层逻辑。而我们的节目则明确拒绝标题党，并谢绝大多数未能跑赢标普500的嘉宾。如果你认真统计任何宏观预测者的正确率，很可能再也不会把他们的建议当回事。

But at the end of the day, they are in the business of generating clicks and views. And the reality is that calling for the next crash or some other extreme viewpoint is going to generate a lot of clicks and views. So that is the incentive that they're operating on. Our show on the other hand actively dismisses using clickbait titles and turns down the vast majority of guests who don't have a track record of outperforming the S and P 500. If you seriously reviewed the track record of any macro forecaster and how often they're right versus wrong, you'd probably never take their advice seriously again.

回到我最初的观点，投资的最佳时机就是今天。18岁时，你的投资跑道比99%的投资者都长，所以要善用这个优势。无论金额多小都要开始投资，哪怕每月只有50或100美元。复利是世界上最强大的力量之一，而你正处于最能从中受益的位置。以10%的复利计算，今天投资的1美元到30岁会变成3美元，50岁时是21美元，70岁时将达到142美元。

Turning back to my original point, the best time to invest is today. At 18 years old, you have an investment runway that's longer than 99% of investors, so use that to your advantage. Get started investing no matter how small, even if it's just $50 or $100 a month. Compound interest is one of the most powerful forces on earth, and you are most well positioned to benefit from it. At a rate of 10% compounding, dollars 1 invested today will be $3 at age 30, dollars 21 at age 50, and $142 at age 70.

在早期，复利会考验你的耐心；而在后期，它将考验你的认知。这引出了我想分享给18岁自己的第二课：战胜市场是有可能的，但你的大部分投资组合最好从指数化开始。有相当多的投资者坚信——并试图说服他人——战胜市场几乎是不可能的。

In the early years, compounding will test your patience. And in the later years, it will test your bewilderment. This brings me to the second lesson I would share with my 18 year old self. It is possible to beat the market, but you should probably start with indexing for most of your portfolio. There's a significant number of investors out there who have convinced themselves and they're trying to convince other people that it's practically impossible to beat the market.

这里说的市场指的是标普500指数。在他们看来，如果你试图通过挑选其他公开上市的投资标的来跑赢标普500，完全是在浪费时间。即使你真的跑赢了市场，他们也会认为只是运气好。在他们眼中，战胜市场是沃伦·巴菲特这类拥有非凡技能且恰逢其时的独角兽的专利，我们这些普通人根本无法复制他们的成功，所以根本不该尝试个股投资。

And by the market, I mean the S and P 500. So in their mind, you are completely wasting your time if you're trying to pick stocks in other publicly available investments to try and outperform the S and P 500. And if you do manage to actually beat the market, then they'll believe that you just got lucky. In their eyes, beating the market is reserved for the unicorns like Warren Buffett who have tremendous skill and were simply in the right place at the right time. They believe that us mere mortals can't really emulate their success, so you simply shouldn't try to pick individual stocks.

如果你无法战胜市场，他们的建议是通过购买低成本ETF来复制市场回报。虽然我认为他们并无恶意，其策略也并非无效，但我实在不敢苟同。让我解释下原因：我们每年都能看到头条新闻说指数成分股中的巨头如何推动市场屡创新高，比如'今年七家头部公司贡献了市场90%的涨幅'这类标题。

If you can't beat the market, then their response is to simply emulate the market's returns by buying a low cost ETF. While I don't think they have bad intentions by any means or that their strategy doesn't work, I frankly just don't agree with them. And let me get a bit into why I believe that. We've all seen the headlines shown every year about how the index's biggest companies continue to carry the market higher and higher. The headline will read something like, The top seven companies accounted for 90% of the market's gains this year.

这让人感觉标普500指数中只有七只股票表现良好，如果没持有这些股票就会跑输大盘。但让我们看看数据背后的真相：截至录制时，今年标普500上涨约15%。请思考一下，500家成分股中有多少公司实现了15%以上的回报（即跑赢大盘）？

This makes it seem like seven stocks in the S and P 500 are doing well. And if you don't own those seven stocks, then you're underperforming the market. Well, let's look at some of the data on what's actually happening underneath the surface. As of the time of recording, this year, the S and P 500 is up around 15%. Out of the 500 ish companies in the S and P 500, take a second to think about how many companies have a return of 15% or more, which would be considered beating the market.

由于市场主要由英伟达这类少数异类驱动，或许你会猜15或30家。很多人认为挑选赢家如同大海捞针，数量不可能多。但事实上，标普500成分股中有167家今年回报率跑赢大盘。我圈子里的许多选股投资者都持有这些优胜股。从历史数据看，指数中跑赢大盘的公司比例往往更高。

Since the market is primarily driven by a select few outliers like the Nvidia's of the world, perhaps it's 15 stocks or maybe it's 30. In many people's minds, picking the market's winners is like buying the needle in a haystack so it can't be very many. So out of the 500 companies in the S and P 500, 167 of them have generated return greater than that of the market this year. There are many investors in my circle that pick stocks that own many of these outperformers. And if we look historically, an even higher percentage of companies in the index tend to outperform.

例如2022年有57%的股票跑赢大盘，2019年这个比例是46%。但挑选这些优胜股绝非易事，你仍需建立完善的选股流程和投资组合管理机制。指数投资者常引用的另一个现实是：研究表明多数主动型基金经理长期表现逊于大盘。

For example, in 2022, 57% of stocks outperformed the market. And in 2019, 46% of stocks outperformed. But picking these stocks that do outperform is still no easy task. You still have to have a good process in place for selecting companies in managing your portfolio. Another reality that index investors often point to are the studies that show that most active managers underperform the market over long periods of time.

例如，拉里·斯威德罗的研究表明，在截至2019年6月的十五年间，90%的大盘股、中盘股和小盘股基金表现都逊于标普基准指数。这些本该是行业精英的专业人士，绝大多数却表现不佳。这让我们个人投资者还有什么机会？对此我有几点看法。首先，这些基金经理是否真正尝试过战胜市场？

For example, research from Larry Swedroe showed that over a fifteen year period ending June 2019, 90% of large cap, mid cap and small cap funds underperformed their benchmark S and P indices. And these are the professionals who are supposed to be good at what they do and the vast majority are failing. What chance does that give us as individual investors? I would respond to that with a few things. First, would ask, are the managers making a real attempt to beat the market?

还是说他们管理投资组合的方式只是为了最大化资产管理规模，或是维持现有资产基础？如果经理更关注客户关系管理，那么他们很可能只想紧贴指数表现，尽量不偏离太多。考虑到他们收取的费用后，表现不佳几乎是必然的。我为什么要基于这种有缺陷的激励机制来做投资决策？其次，我认为当今投资者常会犯一些行为错误，这些我们可以在自己的投资过程中注意并避免。

Or are they managing the portfolio in a way that will maximize AUM or simply maintain their current asset base? If a manager is more concerned with managing client relationships, then they likely just want to closely mimic the index's performance and hug the index and try not vary too much from it. And after you factor in the fees they're charging, it's highly likely that they're gonna underperform. Why should I base my investment decisions on that sort of broken incentive structure? Second, I believe that investors today tend to make behavioral mistakes with their investments that we can be aware of and try to prevent in our own processes.

比如现在很多投资者交易过于频繁且思维短视。如今股票的平均持有期接近历史低点。有明确研究表明，持有期越短，回报越低。1970年代股市平均持有期是五年，而现在只有十个月左右。第三点我想说的是，许多资产管理公司在管理基金时面临诸多限制和条条框框。

For example, many investors today make too many trades and think too short term. The average holding period of stocks today is near an all time low. And there's clear research that shows that the shorter the holding periods, the lower the returns. Back in the 1970s, the average holding period in the stock market was five years, and today it's around ten months. And the third thing I'd mention is related to how many asset managers have a lot of constraints and guardrails when it comes to managing their fund.

这方面我可以列举几点。许多资产管理公司受到持仓规模的限制，无论是从监管角度还是风险管理角度。假设他们有只股票表现极佳，三年内翻了三倍，可能因为达到组合占比上限而被迫减持。过早减持赢家股可能是个有害的错误，会损害投资者回报。其次，高度集中的投资组合实际上可能风险更低且更有可能跑赢市场。

There are several points I could mention on this front. Many asset managers are constrained by how large they can let their positions become, either from a regulatory perspective or from a risk management perspective. So if they have a stock that's a home run, let's say it triples in three years, they might be forced to trim it because it's reached a certain size of their portfolio. Trimming your winners can be a detrimental mistake and may hamper the investors' returns. Next, it's possible for a highly concentrated portfolio to be less risky and give you better odds of outperforming.

但高度集中通常会导致整体组合波动性加大，如果客户看到组合下跌20%而大盘只跌10%就情绪激动，主动型基金经理会很难操作。偶尔跑输市场是不可避免的，无论你多优秀，当业绩不佳时接到客户电话会让情况更难处理。我要补充的第三点与激励机制和职业风险有关。即使经理相信某个逆向投资需要两三年才能见效，但若短期内表现不佳，与市场共识相悖可能危及他们的职位安全。这种压力常导致经理们紧贴基准或选择更安全、更符合共识的交易，即便知道这可能意味着长期回报较低。

But being highly concentrated tends to bring higher volatility to the overall portfolio, which can make it more difficult for an active manager to do if their clients get upset when the portfolio is down 20% while the broader market is down 10%. Underperforming the market from time to time is just inevitable, no matter how great an investor you are, which makes it even more difficult to do if you have clients calling when you aren't doing as well. The third point I would add here is related to incentives and career risk. Even if a manager believes in a contrarian investment that might take two to three years to play out, going against consensus can be dangerous for their job security if the idea underperforms in the short term. This pressure often leads managers to hug the benchmark or make safer, more consensus trades, even when they know that it might mean lower long term returns.

普通经理往往更关心保住工作和养家糊口，而非为投资者创造最佳风险调整后收益。最后，许多公司管理着数亿甚至数十亿美元资金，这使得跑赢市场难上加难。大基金难以投资于规模较小、流动性较差的公司，而这些领域往往存在市场最大的低效机会。因此他们被迫和其他人一样在大盘股池子里钓鱼，机会自然受限。战胜市场绝非易事，理解为何多数投资者难以做到这点，能帮助我们更好地利用市场低效机会。

Your typical manager likely cares more about keeping their job and providing for their families rather than generating the best risk adjusted returns for their investors. And lastly, many firms manage hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, which can make it much more difficult to outperform the market. Large funds can't easily buy into smaller, less liquid companies where some of the biggest inefficiencies often exist in the market. As a result, they're often forced to fish in the same large cap pond as everyone else, limiting their opportunity set. Beating the market certainly is not easy and understanding why many investors have such a hard time doing it can help us best position ourselves to take advantage of the market's inefficiencies.

我们18岁时学到的第三课是：耐心是投资者最大的优势之一。那些追求快速获利和市场即时满足感的投资者，其实是在拥挤的领域竞争，这也是交易如此困难的原因。追逐10%或20%的短期回报很诱人，但真正的财富来自长期投资。股票市场101一书的作者托马斯·菲尔普斯说过，要在股市赚钱，你需要有发现它们的眼光，购买它们的勇气，以及持有它们的耐心。而这三者中，耐心最为稀缺。

Lesson number three from our 18 year old self is that patience is one of the biggest advantages an investor can have. Investors looking for quick profits and instant gratification in the markets are operating in a crowded space, which is why trading is just so difficult. It can be tempting to try and chase quick 10% or 20% returns, but the real money will be made in the long term. Thomas Phelps, wrote the book 101 in the Stock Market said that to make money in stocks, you need to have the vision to see them, courage to buy them and the patience to hold them. Patience is the rarest of the three.

任何人都能买入一家优秀公司的股票，但很少有人具备持有十年以上的耐心和情感韧性。同样，许多企业管理者基于短期利益做决策。所以要寻找那些致力于最大化长期股东价值、为企业资本做长远投资的管理者合作。一个对股东友好、利益绑定、为企业长期投资且经营动机超越金钱的管理团队，其价值怎么强调都不为过。巴菲特多年前曾被问及评估管理团队的标准。

Anybody can buy a stock in a great company, few will have the patience and the emotional fortitude to hold it for ten years or more. Similarly, many business managers make decisions based on the short term. So look to partner with managers who set out to maximize long term shareholder value and invest the business's capital for the long term. It's hard to overstate the value of a management team that is shareholder friendly, has skin in the game, invests in their business for the long term and is running their business for reasons other than money. Buffett was once asked about his criteria for evaluating a management team years ago.

他谈到当伯克希尔收购全资企业并保留原管理团队时，经营者往往能获得数千万甚至上亿美元。巴菲特很清楚，这些经理人在出售企业后很可能不再被金钱驱动，因为他们可能永远花不完已有财富。因此巴菲特要寻找像他热爱伯克希尔那样痴迷自己事业的偏执狂。这类管理者才能带来持续十余年的卓越表现。最近我和朋友约瑟夫·沙波什尼克在蒙大拿大天空城的峰会上就讨论过这类偏执狂。

And he talked about how when Berkshire buys a wholly owned business and keeps the management in place, the manager is oftentimes receiving tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars for the businesses they're running. Buffett is well aware that the manager after they sell their business likely is not too motivated by just money because they'll likely never be able to spend everything they have. So Buffett wants to find fanatics who love their business as much as Buffett loves Berkshire. That's the type of manager that can deliver outstanding performance over ten plus years. My friend Joseph Shaposhnik and I were chatting about fanatics at our Summit event in Big Sky, Montana recently.

约瑟夫持股的HEICO公司由门德尔松家族经营超过三十年。他告诉我门德尔松家族成员除了工作别无他求，是真正的事业狂。我认为HEICO正是研究理想管理团队的绝佳案例。他们专注于最大化每股长期自由现金流——讽刺的是，这种策略若用当前市盈率等指标衡量会显得缺乏吸引力，因为他们根本不为这类短期指标优化。

One company that Joseph is a shareholder of is HEICO, which has been run by the Mendelson family for over thirty years. He mentioned to me that all the Mendelsons do is work. They are true fanatics about their business. And I think HEICO is such a good case study of the types of things to look for in a management team. They're thinking about how to maximize long term free cash flow per share, which ironically can make the business look unattractive today if you're looking at the headline PE or whatever metric, because they simply are not optimizing for that variable.

其他在营销或研发领域进行增值投资的企业，可能当前每股收益会下降，但提升了公司长期价值。多数管理者不愿承受这种短期阵痛。杰夫·贝索斯曾说：'如果你的所有决策都以三年为周期，那么你要和很多人竞争。但若愿意以七年为周期，竞争对手就少得多——因为极少公司能做到这点。延长决策周期能让你涉足原本无法企及的领域。'

Other types of businesses that are making value accretive investments in marketing or R and D might be decreasing their earnings per share today, but they're increasing the long term value of the firm. Many managers aren't willing to suffer that short term pain today in the same way. Jeff Bezos once said, If everything you do needs to work on a three year time horizon, then you're competing against a lot of people. But if you're willing to invest on a seven year time horizon, you're now competing against a fraction of those people because very few companies are willing to do that. Just by lengthening your time horizon, you can engage in endeavors you could never otherwise pursue.

延迟满足与长远思考违背人性。这种心理特质却为善用者创造了巨大机遇。或许某优秀企业因季度业绩不及预期下跌10%，或是持股者仅仅因股价一年未动就失去耐心。许多投资者陷入所谓'双曲贴现'陷阱——由于复利效应带来的远期巨大收益，在当下被严重低估。

It's against human nature to delay gratification and think long term. This quirk in the human psyche creates tremendous opportunities for those who can harness it. Perhaps a great business drops by 10% because of a quarterly earnings miss or other investors simply just get tired of holding a name because the stock has gone nowhere in the past year. Many investors fall prey to what some call hyperbolic discounting. Hyperbolic discounting is when large payoffs far into the future due to the power of compounding are heavily discounted today.

因此优秀企业用三年周期看可能价格合理，但用十五到二十年周期看却显得荒谬地低估。这引出了我想告诉18岁自己的第四课：多数股票终将平庸，只需聚焦那些易于理解的伟大企业。

So a great business might look fairly priced when we look out three years, but ridiculously underpriced when we look out fifteen to twenty years. This leads me to my fourth lesson I would share for my 18 year old self. Most stocks will be mediocre at best, just focus on great businesses that are simple to understand.

我们稍事休息，听听今日赞助商的消息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

你是否注意到，聪明的投资者总会对冲尾部风险，却几乎从不谈论金融压制？这里有个令人不安的真相：无论你如何谨慎构建投资组合，只要资金规则可能在一夜之间改变，你就始终处于风险之中。问问那些银行账户被冻结的加拿大卡车司机，汇款被国有银行截留的古巴家庭，或是数十个威权国家中目睹毕生积蓄在恶性通胀中蒸发的普通民众——这些都不是孤立事件。

Ever notice how smart investors hedge against tail risk, but almost never talk about financial repression? Here's the uncomfortable truth. It doesn't matter how careful you build your portfolio because if the rules around your money can change overnight, you're vulnerable. Just ask the Canadian truckers whose bank accounts were frozen or Cuban families whose remittances were hijacked by state banks or citizens in dozens of authoritarian countries watching their life savings evaporate under hyperinflation. These aren't isolated incidents.

它们构成了全球性的系统性现象。这正是人权基金会发布《金融自由报告》的原因，这份每周通讯追踪各国政府如何将货币武器化来控制人民，以及比特币如何帮助个体抵抗金融压制。如果你关注健全货币、个人主权和财务自由，这份报告堪称必读材料——我本人就是订阅用户并从中获益良多。免费订阅请访问financialfreedomreport.org。

They're part of a global pattern. That's why the Human Rights Foundation publishes the Financial Freedom Report, a weekly newsletter that tracks how governments weaponize money to control people and how Bitcoin is helping individuals resist financial repression. If you care about sound money, personal sovereignty, and financial freedom, HRF's financial freedom report is essential reading. This is a report that I'm personally subscribed to and learn a ton from. Sign up for free at financialfreedomreport.org.

网址是financialfreedomreport.org。精明的投资者不只盯着美联储，他们更关注全球动向。

That's financialfreedomreport.org. Smart investors don't just watch the Fed, they watch the world.

作为小企业主，你根本没有提前下班的奢侈。生意占据了你全部的心思。因此在招聘时，你需要一个和你同样拼命的合作伙伴——这个伙伴就是领英招聘。当你结束工作时，正是领英开始发力的时候。

As a small business owner, you do not have the luxury of clocking out early. Your business is on your mind twenty four seven. So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do. That hiring partner is LinkedIn jobs. When you clock out, LinkedIn clocks in.

领英让你能轻松免费发布职位，通过人脉网络传播招聘信息，并在统一平台管理优质候选人。它甚至能帮你撰写职位描述，并借助深度候选人洞察快速触达目标人群。你可以免费发布职位，或通过推广获得三倍优质申请。72%使用领英的中小企业证实其能帮助找到高质量人才，让你对招聘效果充满信心。立即了解为何我们和超过250万家中小企业都选择领英招聘。

LinkedIn makes it easy to post your job for free, share it with your network and get qualified candidates that you can manage all in one place. LinkedIn can even help you write job descriptions and quickly get your job in front of the right people with deep candidate insights. You can post your job for free or promote it to get three times more qualified applicants. And with LinkedIn, you can feel confident that you're getting the best applicants as 72% of small and medium sized businesses using LinkedIn say it helps them find high quality candidates. Find out why our business and more than 2,500,000 other small businesses use LinkedIn for hiring today.

免费发布职位请访问linkedin.com/studybill（条款与条件适用）。OnRamp是提供全方位比特币金融服务的机构，致力于为客户带来长期安心保障。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill. That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. OnRamp is a full suite Bitcoin financial services firm built for long term peace of mind.

他们提供从顶级机构级托管、低成本交易到遗产规划、借贷及保险等全套服务，所有设计都旨在帮助客户长期保护和增值比特币资产。其核心是多机构托管模型——由伦敦劳合社承保，通过将多重签名金库密钥分发给三家独立受监管托管人来消除单点故障。采用冷存储链上可审计方案，终端客户完全掌控资产却无需承担私钥管理负担。随着行业最有效的比特币购买渠道OnRamp Trade上线，现在为亲友同事开启比特币之旅变得前所未有的简单——他们需要的正是一个专注比特币的安全合作伙伴。

They offer everything from best in class institutional grade custody and low cost trading to inheritance planning, lending, and insurance. All designed to help clients protect and grow their Bitcoin over time. At the core is OnRamp's multi institution custody model backed by Lloyd's of London, which eliminates single points of failure by distributing keys of multisig vaults across three independent regulated custodians. It's cold storage, on chain auditable, and fully controlled by the end client, but without the burdens of private key management. And now with the launch of on ramp trade, the industry's most effective way to buy Bitcoin, it's easier than ever to onboard friends, family, and colleagues who want a secure Bitcoin only partner to start their journey.

注册流程无缝衔接，在入职过程中输入推荐码即可获得比特币奖励。从初始积累到多代财富规划，OnRamp实现了安全与简便的完美结合。了解更多请访问onrampbitcoin.com。网址是onrampbitcoin.com。

Signing up is seamless and referrals can be entered during onboarding to earn rewards in Bitcoin. From initial accumulation to multigenerational wealth planning, OnRamp is where security meets simplicity. Learn more at onrampbitcoin.com. That's onrampbitcoin.com.

好的，回到节目中来。

All right. Back to the show.

巴菲特曾分享过一句至理名言：以合理价格买入优秀公司，远比以优惠价格买入平庸公司要好得多。大约一年前，我邀请亨德里克·贝森宾德做客播客，他著名的研究《股票收益能跑赢国债吗？》表明，自1926年以来，仅4%的股票贡献了全部超越国债的超额收益。换句话说，股市的回报高度集中在少数大赢家身上。该研究最令人惊讶的发现是：市场上普通股票的实际表现甚至会让投资者亏钱——相比国债而言。

Buffett shared the wise words that it's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. Around a year ago, I had Hendrik Besenbinder on the podcast and his popular study titled, Do Stocks Outperform Treasuries? Showed that since 1926, just 4% of stocks generated all of the excess returns above that of treasury bills. In other words, the outcomes in the stock market are skewed towards the market's biggest winners. One of the surprising findings from that study was that the average stock in the market actually ends up losing investors' money relative to treasury bills.

令人惊叹的是，全球有数千家上市公司将成为糟糕的投资标的。然而市场整体仍能为投资者带来约10%的年化回报，正是因为那些大赢家最终扛起了整个指数的表现。长期来看，伟大企业才是创造财富的源泉，因此请聚焦于此。我将伟大企业定义为具备以下特质的企业。接下来我要列出一长串标准，请耐心听我说完。

It's amazing how there are thousands of public companies globally that will be poor investments. Yet the market's overall returns for investors is something like 10% per year because the big winners end up carrying the whole weight of the index. Over the long run, great businesses are where the money is to be made, so focus your attention there. I would define a great business as one with the following attributes. So I have quite a list here, so please bear with me.

这类企业能在顺境和逆境中持续创造自由现金流，实现营收与自由现金流的稳定持久增长。如果企业还是行业龙头，拥有长期结构性优势，并在增长型行业中不断扩大市场份额，那就更理想了。它需要具备长期增长空间，由诚实能干、深谙资本配置之道的管理团队运营。

It has the ability to generate durable free cash flow, both in good times and in bad times. It delivers stable and durable growth in revenue and free cash flow. It's an added bonus if the business is a leader in their industry and has secular tailwinds and the company is gaining market share in that growing industry. It has a long runway to grow. It's run by honest and capable management teams that understand capital allocation.

企业及其管理团队要有持续超越平均水平的业绩记录。业务需产生高投资资本回报率，并能通过某种护城河或竞争优势维持这种高回报。企业需拥有强劲的资产负债表，避免过度杠杆，同时保持最低程度的股权稀释——这意味着管理层不会大量发放员工股票或通过增发股票进行收购。虽然个别标准可能存在例外，但这些特质普遍适用于伟大企业。

The business and the management team have a track record of delivering above average performance. The business generates high returns on invested capital. The business is able to sustain those high returns with some sort of moat or competitive advantage. The business has a strong balance sheet and is not over leveraged and it should have minimal dilution, meaning that the management team isn't handing out a lot of shares to employees or issuing a lot of shares to do an acquisition. There can be exceptions to some of these points, but these are what generally apply to a great business.

大多数企业无法完全符合所有标准。想深入了解伟大企业投资之道，我强烈推荐劳伦斯·坎宁安的《优质投资》一书。请记住，美国有超过5000家上市公司，全球范围更多。你应该对大多数机会说不，只对那些易于理解、且具备清晰可见的至少10%年化回报路径的企业说可以。在上述标准中，我想特别强调护城河的重要性——没有护城河的企业，长期来看很难创造超额收益。

And most businesses won't perfectly fit into each box. To learn more about investing in great businesses, I would highly recommend Lawrence Cunningham's book, Quality Investing. Remember that there are more than 5,000 publicly listed companies in The US and many more globally. You should likely say no to most opportunities that come your way and say yes to those that are simple to understand and have a path to generating returns of at least 10% per year that's highly visible. Out of that list above, I'd like to expand more on the importance of the moat, because without a moat, the business isn't likely to generate excess returns over the long run.

巴菲特将护城河作为其投资策略的核心支柱，他曾表示：'那些拥有宽阔可持续护城河的产品或服务，才是能为投资者带来回报的企业。'在这个资本主义世界里，众多参与者都试图套利任何超额收益。因此理想情况下，你应该投资于拥有铜墙铁壁般护城河的企业，让它们能持续稳步成长。有些护城河显而易见，比如Facebook（现Meta）主平台和Instagram的网络效应；而有些则较难察觉，比如好市多企业文化的影响力及其难以复制的特性。我喜欢通过数据来验证护城河的强度。

Buffett highlighted moats as the main pillar of his investing strategy as he stated, The products or services that have wide sustainable moats around them are the ones that deliver rewards to investors. This capitalistic world, there are a lot of players in the game of capitalism looking to arbitrage away any excess returns that are out there. So ideally you're invested in a business that is a bulletproof moat so they can continue trudging along and growing. Some moats are easy to spot such as Facebook's network effect on Facebook blue and Instagram, while other moats are more difficult to spot, such as the impact of the culture at Costco and how difficult that culture is to replicate. I like to verify the strength of a moat simply by looking at the numbers.

别只告诉我企业有强大护城河，要用事实说话。在我们'最佳品质投资理念'系列分析中，万事达卡和Booking控股就是典型案例。过去十年间，万事达卡的投资资本回报率始终保持在40%左右，Booking控股同样表现优异。我不需要听信企业自夸的护城河，也不必依赖分析师报告或亲自做坊间调研。

Don't tell me you have a great moat, show me. A couple of stocks that we've done a breakdown on our best quality idea series are MasterCard and Booking Holdings. MasterCard has consistently had a return on invested capital of around 40% over the past decade. And Booking Holdings is in a similar boat. I don't need to count on the company's word that they have a moat or the analysis of some analyst or do a bunch of scuttlebutt research myself.

业绩本身就是最好的证明。那些持续实现高投资回报的企业往往能保持优势，因为其根本竞争力会随时间不断强化。赢家通常持续领先，就像运动中的物体会保持惯性。几周前与大卫·加德纳交流时，他提出的'可乐测试'概念令我印象深刻：当你投资行业龙头时，要自问这个龙头是否像可口可乐那样拥有自己的百事可乐对手。

A lot of the proof is in the performance. Companies that earn consistently high returns on invested capital tend to continue doing so because their underlying advantages reinforce themselves over time. Winners tend to keep on winning, just like an object in motion tends to stay in motion. One of the concepts that resonated with me in my recent conversation with David Gardner a few weeks back was the COLA test. If you're investing in the leader of an industry, ask yourself if there's a Pepsi to the leader's Coke.

如果某家企业独树一帜，你就找不到与之对应的'百事可乐'。这类企业虽罕见，却可能带来惊人机遇。当谷歌搜索成为主导平台后，其业务模式就再无真正竞争者——谷歌的可乐没有对应的百事。亚马逊在电商领域、奈飞在流媒体行业同样如此。

If the business is the only one doing what they're doing, then you won't find a Pepsi to its Coke. These types of businesses are rare, but they can just be amazing opportunities. Once Google search became the dominant search platform, there was no real competitor to what they did. There was no Pepsi to Google's Coke. The same thing could be said with Amazon and e commerce and Netflix and streaming.

以我投资组合中的Constellation软件为例：2023年2月研读马克·伦纳德致股东信后，我专门制作了相关节目。该公司完全符合我的投资框架，实现了惊人的每股增长和自由现金流。即便在分拆出Topicus和Lumine后，其发展空间依然广阔。按理说该商业模式可被复制，但至今我尚未发现能与之比肩的企业。

To share one example in my own portfolio, back in February 2023, I read through Mark Leonard's letters from Constellation Software and ended up doing an episode on them. And I felt that it fit perfectly within my framework that I've outlined here. The company has generated remarkable levels of growth and free cash flow per share. I believe that they have a long runway to continue doing so alongside their two spinoffs, Topicus and Lumine. One would think that another company would be able to do what Constellation does at scale, but I haven't found one yet.

最难得的是，这些企业都拥有诚实能干的管理层，且他们持有大量公司股份——这让持股监督变得轻松。我不愿彻夜担忧管理层是否与我利益一致。这引出给我18岁自己的第五课：犯错很正常。首笔投资血本无归反而成为最佳'学费'，比尔·米勒就将市场亏损视为教育支出。

And the cherry on top was that these businesses have management teams that are honest and competent and own a significant amount of shares in the company so that it becomes easier to hold and monitor these companies. I don't want to lie awake at night wondering if a management team is acting in my best interest or not. This brings me to my fifth lesson for my 18 year old self, You're going to be wrong at times and that's okay. Losing 100% of my money on my first investment was ironically one of the best investments I've made because of the lessons I took away from that experience. Bill Miller said that he views his losses in the market as tuition payments.

年轻时资金量小，在黄金收入期来临前犯错无妨。护城河有时会被颠覆，谁也无法提前预知。因此要分散投资，不顺心时别苛责自己。当对投资有十足把握时，下注要足以影响组合，但别多到错误时毁掉自己。1%仓位即使翻三倍，也只会让你懊悔当初没敢下重注。

When you're young, you aren't dealing with a large capital base, so it's okay to make those mistakes early as your prime income years are still ahead of you. Sometimes moats get disrupted and there's really no way to say for sure you could have seen it coming ahead of time. That's why you should spread out your bets and not be too hard on yourself when things don't go your way. When you have high conviction on an investment, bet enough that it makes a difference, but not so much that it would destroy you if you're wrong. A 1% position that triples will likely just leave you disappointed that you didn't bet bigger when you felt that you had the story right.

那些具有较大下跌风险的股票在投资组合中的权重应该较低。让它们通过表现来证明自己值得留在组合中。股票数量少并不总是意味着投资组合风险高。实际上，由于伯克希尔和亚马逊业务多元化、抗风险能力强且管理出色，持有一股伯克希尔或一股亚马逊可能比持有10只科技股风险更低。克里斯·梅尔曾告诉我，有些投资者错误地认为持有的股票数量能保障他们的安全。

Stocks that have a lot of downside risk should probably be weighted lower in your portfolio. Let them earn their keep in the portfolio. Fewer stocks does not always equate to a higher risk portfolio. One position in Berkshire or one position in Amazon can actually be less risky than a portfolio with 10 technology stocks due to how diversified, durable, and how well managed Berkshire and Amazon are. Chris Mayer once said to me that some investors have a false view that somehow the number of stocks they own is going to save them.

当投资组合超过20只股票时，分散投资的边际效益就开始递减。我最欣赏的投资者之一比尔·阿克曼说过：'对个人投资者而言，你至少需要持有10只、最多20只不同的证券。'很多人会认为这是相对集中的投资组合。我们认为，你应该持有能找到的最好的10到15家企业。如果你投资的是低杠杆、高质量的公司，这样的分散程度就足够了。

Once you get above 20 stocks in the portfolio, the benefits of diversification start to see diminishing returns. One of my favorite investors, Bill Ackman stated, For an individual investor, you want to own at least 10 and as many as 20 different securities. Many people would consider that to be a relatively highly concentrated portfolio. In our view, you want to own the best 10 or 15 businesses you can find. And if you invest in low leverage, high quality companies, that's a comfortable degree of diversification.

预期你的投资平均成功率会低于50%。成功的投资不仅在于判断正确，更在于正确时要把握住机会。盈利频率和盈利规模同样重要。虽然市场总体有效，但总会出现绝佳机会。建立优质企业观察清单，寻找那些市场尚未认可其积极发展、或对短期事件反应过度的公司。

Expect the average success rate of your investments to be less than 50%. Successful investing isn't just about being right, but also making it count when you are right. Both the frequency and the magnitude of the payoff matter. Although the market is broadly efficient, there are times when great opportunities will be served. Keep a watch list of great businesses and see if you can find positive developments at a company that isn't being appreciated by the market or if the market is overreacting to events that are short term in nature.

本课最后一点是不要过分纠结结果。最优秀的投资者注重完善投资流程而非执念结果。有时好决策会带来坏结果，而坏决策反而产生好结果。随机性会以无数方式影响市场，但长期来看，完善的流程才能带来持续优异的表现。这种思维能帮助你在逆境中保持理性，避免亏损后做出情绪化决策。

My last point on this lesson is not to fixate so much on the outcome. The best investors prioritize having a good process rather than obsessing over the outcome. Sometimes good decisions lead to a bad outcome and sometimes a bad decision can lead to a good outcome. Randomness impacts the market in an infinite number of ways, but over time, a good process is what leads to consistently better results. This mindset helps you stay grounded when things don't go your way and prevents emotional decision making after losses.

总会有人比你更快致富，关键在于坚持自己的投资策略。运气在短期内确实影响结果，但目标不是追求短期回报，而是实现数十年的资本复利。追逐热门标的的人从未达成这个目标。第六课：估值很重要，但不要过分强调。

There will be times when others are getting rich much faster than you, and it will be up to you to stick with your process and the game that you're playing. Luck contributes meaningfully to results in the short term, but the goal is not to achieve good short term returns. It's about compounding capital for decades. Nobody achieved this by chasing that which is most popular. All right, lesson number six, valuation matters, but don't overemphasize it.

这是什么意思呢？很多投资者把估值分析局限在市盈率上。对初入门的投资者来说，高市盈率股票意味着昂贵，低市盈率则代表便宜。但事实上，低价股之所以便宜是有原因的。通常公司A市盈率低于同行公司B是有充分依据的。

Now, what do I mean by that? Many investors fixate their valuation analysis on the PE ratio. For many investors just getting started, a high PE stock means the stock is expensive and a low PE stock means it's cheap. The reality is that cheap stocks appear cheap for a reason. And there's often a good reason why company A trades at a lower PE ratio than its peer company B.

价值投资不是寻找低市盈率公司。如果这么简单，我们都会去买eBay而非亚马逊。对我而言，价值投资是持有那些能长期实现每股自由现金流复利增长的行业翘楚。用巴菲特的话说：'撇开价格问题，最值得拥有的企业是那些在长期内能以极高回报率投入大量增量资本的企业。最糟糕的企业则恰恰相反，它们必须持续以极低回报率投入越来越多的资本。'

Value investing is not about finding a low PE company. If it were, then we'd all be buying eBay instead of Amazon. To me, value investing is about owning the best of breed companies that can compound free cash flow per share over long periods of time. To put it in Buffett's words, leaving the question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return. The worst business to own is one that must or will do the opposite, that is consistently employ ever greater amounts of capital at very low rates of return.

我投资生涯早期持有的企业之一是Netflix。那时我还没被误导去专注购买低市盈率股票。让我们回到2016年，当时我是个年轻天真的投资者。我注意到人人都在用Netflix，用户增长势如破竹，股价表现优异——这大概是最吸引我的地方。

One of the businesses I owned early on in my investing journey was Netflix. This is before I got duped into thinking that I should focus on buying low PE stocks. Let's go back to 2016. I was a young investor and pretty naive. I noticed that everyone was using Netflix, their subscriber growth was off the charts, and the stock was performing quite well, which is probably the most attractive thing about it to me.

2016年该公司市值约600亿美元，净利润约1.86亿美元。这意味着Netflix当时市盈率高达322倍。当我了解市盈率重要性后震惊不已：我怎么会持有估值如此之高的股票？

The company's market capitalization was roughly $60,000,000,000 at the 2016. And the business was generating roughly 186,000,000 in net income. That means that Netflix was trading at a PE ratio of three twenty two. Once I learned the importance of the PE ratio, I was appalled. What am I doing owning a stock that is this expensive?

更糟的是，当年自由现金流为负16亿美元。不仅市盈率畸高，企业还在疯狂烧钱。但积极的一面是，年报显示过去几年收入以25%速度复合增长毫无放缓迹象，全球流媒体会员数增速近30%，Netflix正在全球快速扩张。

And not only that, free cash flow for the year was negative 1,600,000,000.0. So not only was the PE ratio sky high, but the business was burning through cash like there's no tomorrow. But on a positive note, their annual report showed that revenues were compounding at 25% over the past few years with no signs of slowing down. And global streaming members were compounding at nearly 30%. And Netflix was rapidly expanding its service globally.

2010年进入加拿大，2012年登陆英国、爱尔兰、芬兰、丹麦、瑞典和挪威，2015年拓展至澳大利亚和新西兰。他们像钟表般精准地在全球各地上线服务。市盈率只是反映企业过往表现的指标。

In 2010, they launched in Canada. In 2012, in The UK, Ireland, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway. In 2015, Australia and New Zealand. So like clockwork, they were launching their service all over the world. Now the PE ratio is a backward looking view of the company.

但作为立志成为企业长期真正所有者的投资者，我们需要思考公司未来的战略定位。如果Netflix在所有这些新市场开展业务，初期亏损是合乎逻辑的。随着当地用户增长，终将实现盈利并为投资者带来回报——前提是Netflix能保持流媒体霸主地位。2013年起他们开始自制内容，到2016年已成为行业绝对领导者。

But as investors who are looking to become true long term owners of the business, we need to consider what a company is positioning itself to become in the future. If Netflix is launching their services in all of these new countries, it would be logical to assume that initially they would be unprofitable early on in their launch. And as subscriber growth would pick up in those countries, it would eventually turn profitable and generate good returns for investors, assuming that Netflix would continue to be the dominant streaming provider. By 2013, Netflix was also starting to release their own content. And by 2016, Netflix was the clear leader in the industry.

作为用户最多的龙头，他们拥有最大资金量投入新内容。讽刺的是，其单用户成本反而是最低的，这形成了成本优势。或许那些不投资新内容、不开拓新市场的三四流玩家市盈率只有10-15倍。我们内心的价值投资者会说该买低市盈率公司而非300倍市盈率的——但这将酿成大错，因为自2016年以来Netflix股价已上涨近十倍。

As the leader with the most subscribers, they would have the most money to invest in new content. And on a per subscriber basis, ironically, they would be spending the least on a per subscriber basis, giving them a cost advantage over everybody else. But perhaps there would be a number three or a number four player that wasn't investing in new content and wasn't expanding into new markets and maybe their PE would be 10 or 15. Perhaps the value investor in us would say that we should buy the company that's trading at the low PE instead of the company with a PE of over 300. Well, would have been a huge mistake as since the 2016, shares of Netflix are up nearly by tenfold.

回到最初观点：估值重要，但非全部。多数投资者习惯用市盈率决定买卖。若运用二阶思维，我们该自问：为何市场给这家公司如此高估值？他们看到了什么我没看到的？这能让我们跳出近期财务数据的局限，看到企业未来蜕变的可能性。

Back to my original point, valuation is important, but it isn't everything. Many investors are wired to look at the PE and let that lead to their decision of buying a company or not. If we use second order thinking, perhaps we should ask ourselves, why is this company trading at such a high PE? What is the market seeing that I'm not? Then that can open up our minds to the possibilities of what a business could become instead of fixating on the recent financial results or focusing on metrics that the business is not necessarily optimizing for.

这让我想到第七课：每项投资都要明白回报从何而来。本杰明·格雷厄姆曾说，最聪明的投资往往最像做生意。在与普通人讨论股市时，我发现多数人把股票当作屏幕上跳动的代码，只关注涨跌。于是他们自然不断追问哪只股票会在未来三个月上涨，却几乎不关注企业实际经营。2021年，许多从未买过股票的人因为GameStop股价两周暴涨而跟风买入。

This brings me to lesson number seven, with every investment, understand where your return is going to come from. Ben Graham once shared that investment is most intelligent when it's most businesslike. In interacting with everyday people about the stock market, I found that most people think of stocks as tickers on a screen that trade up and down. So naturally they're asking themselves and asking other people which stock is going to go up in the next three months and putting little to no emphasis on the actual business. In 2021, many people who have never purchased a stock in their life purchased shares of GameStop because it went up over the past two weeks.

那么为何这种趋势不会持续？在第634期节目中，我采访了约翰·胡伯，我们探讨了他提出的股市三大回报来源：盈利增长、市盈率倍数变化、以及包含股票回购和股息在内的股东回报。这个概念让我茅塞顿开，它让我能清晰评估投资机会，比较看似迥异的投资项目。

So why wouldn't that continue? Back on episode six thirty four, I interviewed John Huber and we covered his three sources of returns for every single stock on the market. The three sources of returns for any stock is earnings growth, the change in the PE multiple, and the shareholder returns, which includes share repurchases and dividends. This concept really clicked for me and it made a lot of sense. And it gave me an easy way to look at my opportunity set as an investor and compare two investments that seem to be very different.

这种思维也帮助我以企业主而非交易者的心态看待投资。每位价值投资者风格各异——有人青睐高股东回报的企业（比如12%回购率加3%股息构成15%总回报），有人则更钟爱年化15%强劲盈利增长但无分红的企业。弗朗索瓦·维桑与我讨论的核心原则与此相关：长期来看，企业内在价值增长终将与股价涨幅趋同。这个简单却深刻的真理令人深思。

It also helps ground me in that mindset as a business owner rather than that as a trader or a speculator. Each value investor has their own style of investing and the three sources of returns highlight how some investors are attracted to businesses that have say high shareholder returns, say buyback ratio of 12% and then a dividend of 3% giving a 15% total return. And other investors might be more attracted to businesses that have robust earnings growth of say 15%, and then you have no buybacks and no dividends, for example. Related to this concept is a core principle that Francois Versean and I discussed, which is this idea that over the long run, the growth in the intrinsic value of a business will essentially match the increase in the value of the stock price. It's such a simple concept, but so profound.

弗朗索瓦在2024年致DeGiovanni Capital合伙人的年报中，将投资组合与标普500指数的内在价值增长与市值增长进行对照。内在价值年变化就是每股收益变化加股息，而市值变化则观察股价变动并计入股息。据罗尚估算，1996至2024年间其组合年化内在价值增长12.9%，市值年增幅13%。这印证了每股收益增长如同地心引力，会自然推高企业股价。

So in Francois's 2024 annual letter to partners for DeGiovanni Capital, he outlined the increase in the intrinsic value alongside the increase in the market value of both his portfolio and the S and P 500. The annual change in the intrinsic value is simply the change in the earnings per share plus the dividend. And the change in the market value is simply looking at the change in the stock price and accounting for dividends of course as well. So from 1996 to 2024, Roshan estimated that the intrinsic value of his portfolio compounded at 12.9% per year and the change in the market value was 13% per year. So this highlights how the growth in the earnings per share is just this fundamental law of gravity that lifts the stock price of companies as their earnings per share increases.

因此如果你确信某公司未来十年每股收益能以12%年化增长，那么其股价大致也会以该速率上涨。明白这点就会懂得：股市不是代码交易的赌场，而是通过持有优质企业分享其内在价值增长的场所。要感恩能成为杰出上市企业的部分所有者，搭乘其长期增长的浪潮。接下来第八课：与志同道合的投资者为伍。

So if you have conviction that a company will compound earnings per share at a rate of say 12% over the next ten years, then you should expect the share price to roughly grow at that rate as well. Once you understand this, you understand that the stock market is not a place to trade tickers, a place to gamble, or a place to try and double your money this week. It's a place to buy wonderful businesses and benefit from the growth in their intrinsic value. Be grateful for the opportunity to become a part owner in some exceptional publicly traded businesses and ride the wave of their long term growth and intrinsic value. Turning to lesson number eight, surround yourself with other like minded investors.

与价值投资者同行能极大加速你的成长。价值投资常是孤独的修行，但同侪网络能带来组合管理、市场研判的新视角，提供建设性反馈，发现潜在盲点。圈子还能拓展投资思路，接触原本不会涉足的行业。假以时日，这些人脉会像复利投资般带来超乎想象的回报。

Surrounding yourself with other like minded value investors can be one of the most powerful accelerators of your growth as an investor. Being a value investor can often feel like a solitary pursuit, but having others in your network can offer a fresh perspective on portfolio management, the market and individual companies. You can also get constructive feedback and potentially catch blind spots that would have otherwise been overlooked. Having a peer group can also help with sourcing ideas and expose you to new industries and companies that you might not have encountered on your own. With time, your relationships will compound in ways you couldn't imagine, just like your investments do.

在持续上涨的市场中，他们能帮你保持清醒，避免追逐热门股。2025年提醒我们：即便是最优秀的企业，其股价也非无限上涨——就像法拉利和好市多估值收缩时，大盘仍在攀升。

They can also help keep you grounded in a market that just seems to keep going up or help keep you from buying the hottest stocks in the market. Twenty twenty five has served as a reminder that even some of the best businesses don't have an infinite price you can pay for them. As companies like Ferrari and Costco, for example, have seen their valuations contract while the broader market continues to rise.

克莱，我们稍作休息，听听今天的赞助商信息。

Clay Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

克莱，商业的未来会怎样？问九个专家你会得到十个答案。牛市、熊市，周而复始。谁能发明个水晶球？在此之前，已有超过42,000家企业通过甲骨文旗下NetSuite——这个整合会计、财务管理、库存和人力资源的一体化AI云ERP平台——为业务做好了未来准备。

Clay What does the future hold for business? Ask nine experts and you'll get 10 answers. Bull market, bear market, it goes on and on. Can someone invent a crystal ball? Until then, over 42,000 businesses have future proofed their business with NetSuite by Oracle, the number one AI cloud ERP bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR into one fluid platform.

通过统一的企业管理套件，您将获得单一数据源，从而拥有快速决策所需的可见性和控制力。实时洞察与预测功能让您能通过可操作数据窥见未来。如果当年我需要这类产品，这绝对是我的首选。无论您的公司年收入是百万还是上亿，NetSuite都能助您应对即时挑战并把握重大机遇。说到机遇，现在可登录netsuite.com/study免费下载《CFO人工智能与机器学习指南》。

With one unified business management suite, there's one source of truth giving you the visibility and control you need to make quick decisions. With real time insights and forecasting, you're peering into the future with actionable data. And if I had needed this product, it is exactly what I would use. Whether your company is earning millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you respond to immediate challenges and seize your biggest opportunities. Speaking of opportunity, download the CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at netsuite.com/study.

该指南可在netsuite.com/study免费获取。想象一下：午夜时分，您躺在床上浏览新发现的网站，将心仪商品加入购物车。准备结账时想起钱包在客厅，又懒得下床去拿。正当您要放弃购物车时，那个紫色购物按钮出现了——它已保存所有支付和物流信息，让您足不出被窝就能轻松完成购买。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study. Picture this, it's midnight, you're lying in bed scrolling through this new website you found and hitting the add to cart button on that item you've been looking for. Once you're ready to check out, you remember that your wallet is in your living room and you don't want to get out of bed to go get it. Just as you're getting ready to abandon your cart, that's when you see it, that purple shop button. That shop button has all of your payment and shipping info saved, saving you time while in the comfort of your own bed.

这就是Shopify，包括我在内的众多企业选择它的理由。从结账到创建独立店铺，Shopify让一切变得更简单。作为全球数百万企业的电商后盾，它支撑着美国10%的电商交易，既有美泰、Gymshark等知名品牌，也有像我这样刚起步的商家。Shopify为您提供全球转化率最高的结账系统。

That's Shopify, and there's a reason so many businesses, including mine, sell with it. Because Shopify makes everything easier, from checkout to creating your own storefront. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses all around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US. From household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands like mine that are still getting started. And Shopify gives you access to the best converting checkout on the planet.

让Shopify助您实现宏大的商业构想，您会感谢我的推荐。现在注册即可享受首月1美元试用，立即开始销售：shopify.com/wsb。初创企业讲究快节奏，借助AI技术，它们产品上线更快，也能更早吸引企业级买家。

Turn your big business idea into reality with Shopify on your side and thank me later. Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb. That's shopify.com/wsb. Startups move fast. And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.

但大订单往往伴随更严格的安全合规要求，SOC2认证有时都不够。合适的安全措施能决定交易成败，可哪位创始人或工程师能抽身处理这些？Vanta的AI自动化方案让您在数天内就能做好大订单准备。

But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements. A SOC two isn't always enough. The right kind of security can make a deal or break it. But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company? Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.

Vanta持续监控您的合规状态，确保未来交易永不受阻。此外，Vanta随您业务共同成长，全程提供及时支持。面对AI驱动的法规变化和买家期望，Vanta精准把握需求节点，为您打造最快最便捷的达标路径。这正是严肃初创企业选择Vanta提前筑牢安全防线的原因。听众专属优惠：访问vanta.com/billionaires立减1000美元。

And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked. Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there. That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta. Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.

立即访问vanta.com/billionaires，立享1000美元优惠。

That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.

好的，我们回到节目。

All right, back to the show.

克莱：鉴于投资常是孤独的修行，我认为优质人脉是投资者最大优势之一。2023年我通过创建TIP智囊团社区升级了投资网络，现有约120名成员。我们通过线上平台互动，每年数次线下聚会加深了解。例如鼓励成员分享持仓股票，每周电话会安排个股分析或组合复盘演示。

Clay Since investing can be such a solitary pursuit for many, I believe that having a good network can be one of an investor's biggest advantages. The way I upgraded my own investing network is by launching our TIP Mastermind community in 2023. We have around 120 members who I've gotten to know through both our online platform and by getting together in person a couple times a year. And I do things like encourage our members to share the stocks in their portfolio. I have several members do stock presentations or portfolio reviews on the weekly calls we host.

这成为我洞察他人核心持仓的绝佳工具。许多成员专职投资，投入大量时间深挖企业本质，为我构建观察清单提供了优质创意源泉。比如有位管理数百亿资产的机构分析师成员，曾为小组录制过林德、布鲁克菲尔德和万事达等公司的深度报告。

And it's just been a tool for me to peer into other people's portfolios to see what stocks they have the highest conviction in. And many of our members have the luxury of investing full time. So they spend a significant amount of time turning over rocks and really getting to understanding a business. So it serves as a really good source of idea generation for me in building out my own watch list. For example, one of our members is an analyst at a firm that manages tens of billions of dollars.

更难得的是，兼职投资的成员来自多元行业，让我获得原本接触不到的行业洞见。当120位研究不同领域公司的成员中有人已调研过某企业时，我能快速获取真相，高效分配研究精力。最近纽约线下聚会聚集了25位成员，面对面建立的情谊让社区体验更加丰富。

He's given recorded presentations to the group on companies like Linde, Brookfield, and Mastercard. And what's also nice is that many of our members that don't invest full time, they work in a variety of different industries. And this can give me insights that I otherwise wouldn't have exposure to in learning about these industries. With a group of 120 who have studied a wide range of different companies, when I know someone else who has already looked into a specific company, I can reach out to them and find the truth earlier in my process, allowing me to focus my attention elsewhere should I need to. I just recently got back from our community meetups in New York City where we had 25 or so members attend, which makes being in this community even more fun as you build out those relationships in person and really get to know some very interesting members as well.

第九课：善用清晰大趋势。投资者提升胜率的最佳方式，就是投资那些乘长期趋势东风的企业。这些行业持续健康增长数十年，投资其中的领军者犹如顺风航行。与其在衰退行业中挣扎，不如押注每年分得更大蛋糕的企业。当前有多个可投资的大趋势领域。

Turning to lesson number nine, use clear megatrends to your advantage. One of the best ways to tilt the odds in your favor as an investor is to invest in businesses that are riding the tailwinds of major long term trends. These are industries that are growing at healthy rates for years, sometimes decades, and investing in the leaders in those industries is like investing with the wind at your back. Instead of fighting for scraps in a declining or stagnant industry, you're betting on companies that are taking a share of a bigger and bigger pie each year. There are several mega trends available for us to invest in.

我想到的几个例子包括从实体商业向数字商业的转型、数字广告、云计算、网络安全、人工智能和半导体。其中的难点在于确保你投资的公司拥有强大的竞争壁垒，且行业中没有过多的资本涌入——这往往会导致该行业所有参与者的回报率下降。当我评估潜在投资时，我会问自己：这家公司是在逆流而上还是顺势而为？拥有强劲顺风的企业即使犯错也能持续增长，而面临逆风的企业则需要完美执行才能勉强维持。当一家公司成为成长性行业的明确领导者时，它往往能获得规模效应、运营效率和品牌影响力等竞争对手难以匹敌的优势。

A few examples that come to mind are the shift from physical to digital commerce, digital advertising, cloud computing, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors. The tricky part of doing this is ensuring that the companies you're investing in have a strong competitive moat and there isn't too much capital being invested in the industry, which tends to lead to lower returns for all players operating in that industry. When I look at a potential investment, I ask myself, is this company swimming against the tide or riding with it? Businesses with strong tailwinds can afford to make mistakes and still grow, while those facing headwinds need to execute flawlessly just to tread water. And when a company is a clear leader in a growing industry, it tends to benefit from scale, efficiency and brand power that competitors just can't easily match.

大趋势还能帮助你缩小机会范围。与其试图研究市场上每家公司，不如聚焦于那些具有结构性优势且值得关注的少数行业。在这些行业中，你可以锁定最有可能获取大部分价值创造的一两家头部企业。我最喜欢的明确大趋势之一就是从传统广告向数字广告的转型。作为Meta广告的客户和用户，我清楚地看到了它们的威力。

Mega trends also help you narrow your opportunity set. Instead of trying to study every company in the market, you can focus on the few industries that are structurally advantaged and worth your attention. And within those, you can zero in on the top one or two players who are likely to capture the bulk of the value creation. One of my favorite clear mega trends is the shift from traditional to digital advertising. I'm a customer and user of Meta Ads, so I clearly see the power of them.

Meta、谷歌和亚马逊显然是数字广告领域的领导者，它们为广告主带来的效果远超同行。理想情况下，企业不仅要乘上行业增长的浪潮，还要持续扩大市场份额。谷歌和Meta早期在该领域领先，但近年来正将份额输给亚马逊。我清楚地看到，越来越多的广告预算将从广告牌、广播、报纸和电视转向这些数字平台，原因很简单：数据更精准。有句老话说得好：'我知道50%的营销费用打了水漂，只是不知道是哪50%。'

Meta, Google, and Amazon are the clear leaders in digital advertising and they are by far the best at delivering the results for advertisers. Ideally, the player is not only riding the wave in the growth of the industry, but also gaining market share. Google and Meta got an early lead in the space and in recent years have been losing share to Amazon. It's just very obvious to me that more and more ad dollars are going to shift from billboards, radio, newspaper, and TV to these digital alternatives simply because the data's better. There's that old saying that 50% of my marketing is not working, I just don't know which 50%.

而现在，你可以直观看到广告费是否花在刀刃上的所有数据。以Meta为例，正因其出色的广告效果，过去十年其收入才能以28%的年复合增长率持续增长。另一个我日益关注的行业是半导体。半导体产业之所以具有投资吸引力，是因为它支撑着所有重大技术趋势的发展。从智能手机、云服务器到电动汽车、工厂自动化和人工智能，芯片驱动着一切。

Well, now you can literally see all of the data on whether your ad dollars are being effectively spent or not. And since Meta, for example, is so good at delivering results, that's why we've seen them grow revenues at 28% compounded over the past decade. Another industry I've had an increased amount of interest in is the semiconductor space. The semiconductor industry is one of the most compelling areas to invest in because it sits at the foundation of every major technological mega trend. Chips power everything from smartphones and cloud servers to EVs, factory automation, and artificial intelligence.

随着世界日益数字化，芯片需求正以惊人速度增长。这个行业的另一大吸引力在于部分企业拥有的竞争优势。在第746期节目中，我讨论过马克·希金关于ASML的著作，这家公司的竞争地位和历史回报令我印象深刻。ASML在其开发的技术上遥遥领先，几乎形成了垄断。最近我们TIP智囊团的一位成员就台积电做了精彩分享，后者在行业中也占据着令人艳羡的地位。

As the world becomes increasingly digital, the demand for chips continues to grow at an extraordinary pace. What also makes this industry attractive are the competitive advantages that some companies have. On episode seven forty six, I discussed Mark Hygiene's book on ASML, and I was impressed by the competitive position and the returns that ASML has generated historically. ASML is so far ahead in the technology they develop that they practically have a monopoly in what they do. And recently, a member of our TIP Mastermind community gave an excellent presentation on TSMC, who also has an enviable position in the industry.

正如听众所知，我们正经历一波AI热潮，相关领域将涌现众多赢家和输家。预测赢家很难，因此有时不如押注于'卖铲人'——即AI繁荣的赋能者。大量投资最终将流向ASML和台积电这样的企业，因为它们生产着满足AI需求的芯片和设备。与许多因增长吸引过度资本和破坏性竞争的行业不同，半导体尖端领域只有少数真正的参与者，各自在专业细分领域构筑了独特壁垒。但这个行业的棘手之处在于其周期性。

As our audience knows, we're going through a wave of AI hype and there are going to be so many different winners and losers with regards to AI. Predicting the winners will be hard, so sometimes it's best to bet on the picks and shovels players or the enablers of the AI boom. A lot of capital invested will end up falling into the hands of ASML and TSMC as they produce the chips and the machines to fulfill the AI demand. Unlike many industries where growth attracts a lot of capital and destructive competition, semiconductors have only a handful of true players at the leading edge, each operating in a specialized segment with distinct moats. But one of the tricky parts with this industry is the cyclicality.

几乎不可能预测下一次衰退或繁荣的时机，因为芯片需求会随经济形势起伏。相比试图把握周期，投资者更应该关注长期趋势：赌未来几十年世界将持续需要更强的算力、更大的数据存储和更高效的芯片。现在讲到第十课：理解投资者心理。过去一万年间人脑进化甚微，但我们所处的世界已发生巨变。因此，我们的本能是为应对处处可见的即时威胁而生，而非为驾驭股市的不确定性而设。

It's practically impossible to predict the timing of the next downturn or the boom as demand for chips ebb and flow with economic conditions. Rather than trying to time the cycle, investors are usually better off focusing on the long term trend, which is betting on the fact that the world will continue to need more computing power, more data storage and more efficient chips for decades to come. Turning to lesson number 10 here, understand investor psychology. The human brain has changed very little over the past ten thousand years, but the world around us has changed dramatically. Thus, our instincts were built for survival in a world of immediate threats everywhere, not one for navigating the uncertainty of the stock market.

曾经帮助祖先生存的相同情绪——如贪婪、恐惧和从众心理——如今却会驱使我们做出非理性的财务决策。早前我提到自己首次投资就血本无归的经历。那次投资中，我显然陷入了损失厌恶的陷阱，即人们对损失的痛苦感受约是同等收益带来快感的两倍。即便当投资亏损50%时我已意识到这是个重大错误，却因不愿确认损失而心存侥幸，期盼能涨回最初买入价再脱手。但绝大多数情况下，若你发现最初投资这家公司本身就是错误，就该及时止损并转向。

The same emotions that once kept our ancestors alive, emotions like greed, fear, and the desire to follow the crowd, these can now push us to make irrational decisions with our money. Earlier, I mentioned that one of my first investments, I ended up losing all my money. So in that investment, I of course fell prey to loss aversion, which states that people feel the pain of losses roughly twice as strongly as the pleasure of equivalent gains. Even though I knew making that investment was a big mistake when it was down 50%, I had a bias against locking in those losses, hoping that it would recover back to where I initially bought so that I could then exit. In the vast majority of cases, if you recognize that you made a mistake in owning a business in the first place, you should cut your losses and move on.

这要求你放下自尊心，克制等待回本的欲望。股票不知道你是其持有者，更不记得你的买入价。市场永远向前看而非向后看，你完全不必通过原来亏损的路径把钱赚回来。将自尊心与投资混为一谈是代价高昂的错误。下一个我常见且亲身体验过的心理偏差就是从众心理。

It requires you to set your ego aside and ignore the desire to try and wait for it to get back to even. The stock has no idea you own it and it has no idea the price you paid for it. Markets are forward looking, not backward looking, and you don't have to make your money back the way you lost it. Mixing your ego with your investments is an expensive mistake when it comes to investing. The next psychological bias I often see and oftentimes feel myself is falling prey to the herd mentality.

人类DNA中深植着从众本能。在漫长进化史中，群体归属意味着安全，特立独行往往伴随危险。因此我们大脑天生寻求社会认同并规避排斥，这种机制在应对物理威胁时很有效，但在奖励独立思考的市场中却适得其反。当看到别人在某只股票或行业赚钱时，本能会暗示我们对方掌握着未知信息，从而触发强烈的错失恐惧。

The urge to follow the herd is deeply rooted in our DNA as humans. For most of human history, survival depended on belonging to a group. In our minds, belonging to a group meant safety and standing alone often meant danger. So our brains are hardwired to seek social validation and avoid rejection, which has served us well when threats were physical, but works against us in markets when independent thinking is rewarded. When we see others making money in a particular stock or sector, our instincts tell us that they must know something that we don't, triggering a powerful fear of missing out.

这种社会压力能压倒理性，驱使我们在大众狂热时追高，在集体恐慌时杀跌。成功的投资需要对抗这种本能，在群体非理性时保持理性行动的勇气。投资中最优质的机遇往往存在于最冷门的领域，因此你应当与从众心理背道而驰。作为TIP主持人，我常被问及所谓'当日热门'——那些市场中最炙手可热的行业。

This social pressure can override logic, pushing us to buy at euphoric highs or sell in moments of panic, simply that's because of what everyone else is doing. Successful investing requires fighting this instinct and having the courage to act rationally when the crowd is emotional. In investing, the best opportunities often tend to be the most unpopular ones. So you want to do the exact opposite of what the herd mentality would otherwise tell us to do. As a host here at TIP, I often get asked about what Frenchwaber Sean would call the flavor of the day, which are essentially the hottest sectors of the market that people are the most excited about.

2020年焦点是远程办公的快速转型，Zoom等股票因此暴涨；2021年是科技股与加密货币；2025年则轮到人工智能。这些时期当然存在赚钱机会，但我要说投资那些登上头条、被主流媒体每日讨论的热门行业，胜算其实对你不利。2020年2月至10月间Zoom股价上涨超六倍。

In 2020, it revolved around the quick shift to remote work, sending stocks like Zoom up massively. In 2021, it was tech stocks and crypto. And in 2025, it's AI. I'm sure there was money to be made in all of these times, but I would argue that the odds are stacked against you by investing in the hottest industries that are making the headlines and that are discussed daily on the mainstream news. From February 2020 to October 2020, shares of Zoom rose by over six fold.

而如今Zoom股价已跌回2020年2月起点之下。其走势完美诠释了当某股票或行业突然受关注时，股价可能急速攀升；但若预期落空，下跌速度同样惊人。切勿因邻居购买、持有或推荐就买入某股票。价值投资者可通过寻找股价遭错杀的标的，将群体心理偏差转化为自身优势。

And today, shares of Zoom are back below where they started back in February 2020. The stock chart of Zoom is a perfect illustration of what happens when there's sudden interest for a stock or a sector, the stock price can rise very quickly. And if these high expectations that are priced in aren't met, the stock can fall just as quickly as it rose. Never buy a stock because your neighbor is buying it, has money on it, or recommends it. Value investors can use the herd mentality bias to their advantage by searching for stocks whose share prices have been unfairly punished.

在蒙大拿峰会上，我们深入讨论的标的之一是Lululemon。查看其走势图会误以为业务在衰退，因股价正逼近五年前2020年3月的低点。2021年其市盈率超70倍，如今已降至11倍，股价较历史高点下跌65%。当下除少数寻找便宜货的价值投资者外，已无人对Lululemon感兴趣。

At our summit event in Montana, one stock that was discussed in-depth amongst our attendees was Lululemon. If you took a look at the stock chart for Lululemon, one would think that the business is in decline as the share price is approaching the March 2020 low from more than five years ago. In 2021, the stock was at a PE of more than 70 times earnings. And today it's down to just 11 times earnings with the stock down over 65% from its all time high. Nobody's excited about Lululemon today, except a handful of value investors searching for bargains.

也许Lululemon的业务遇到了麻烦，因为我注意到其创始人Chip Wilson在《华尔街日报》刊登整版广告，指责管理层拆解商业模式并流失了使公司伟大的核心员工。另一个容易陷入的心理偏差是过度自信。研究一致表明约80%至90%的人认为自己驾驶水平高于平均水平。我辅修过统计学，但即使没有这个背景也能看出这明显不合逻辑。我认为这种现象会直接映射到投资领域。

Perhaps Lululemon's business is in trouble as I noticed that their founder, Chip Wilson, took out a full page ad in The Wall Street Journal to call out the management team for dismantling the business model and losing key employees that made the company great. Another psychological bias that's easy to fall prey to is the overconfidence. Studies consistently show that around 80 to 90% believe that they're better than average drivers. I have a minor in statistics, but I wouldn't need that minor to know that the math just does not add up here. I believe this carries directly over into investing.

我认为多数人都自欺欺人地觉得自己比普通投资者更优秀，这种过度自信可能导致我们做出糟糕的投资决策。这种偏差往往在几次正确决策或幸运获利后出现，让我们误将运气当作能力。它会导致我们跨出能力圈，承担过高风险，使用杠杆，或过度集中持仓——只因对结果盲目自信。我建议想认清自己真实水平的人不妨去股市体验，即便最伟大的投资者职业生涯中也曾错判过自己最有把握的投资。

Most people I think have deluded themselves into thinking that they are better than the average investor and this can lead us to making some poor investment decisions due to overconfidence. This bias often shows up after a few good decisions or lucky wins, leading us to mistake luck for skill. And it can lead us to stepping outside of our circle of competence, taking on excessive risk, using leverage, or concentrating too much in a single stock because we feel certain about the outcome. I recommend that if people want to be humbled and shown that maybe they're not as smart as they think they are, the stock market is a good place to go. Even the greatest investors have been wrong about some of their highest conviction bets over their careers.

投资中保持信念很重要，但必须与谦逊和对未知的认知相平衡。当投资变得异常顺利或感觉自己不会犯错时，或许正是应该踩刹车转向保守策略的时候，以免陷入无法掌控的局面。最后我想强调确认偏误——当我们只寻找支持现有观点的信息，而忽视相反证据时就会出现。一旦对某公司或投资形成观点，大脑就会下意识地自我证实而非检验错误可能。

Having conviction in investing is important, but it must be balanced with humility and an awareness of how much we don't know. Whenever investing feels easy or when you feel like you can do no wrong, that's probably when you should take your foot off the gas and possibly start investing more conservatively so you don't get in over your head. Lastly, I'd like to highlight confirmation bias. This bias shows up when we seek out information that supports our existing beliefs while ignoring evidence that might contradict them. Once we formed an opinion about a company or an investment, our brain subconsciously goes to work trying to prove ourselves right instead of testing whether we might be wrong.

找到验证观点的数据固然令人安心，但这种舒适感在惩罚自满的市场中很危险。确认偏误会让我们忽视危险信号，高估企业质量，或在失败投资中坚守过久。对抗方法是主动寻找看空论据，自问'什么情况会证明我错了'。与挑战你假设的深思熟虑投资者为伍，也有助于打破信息茧房。目标不是永远正确，而是保持开放心态，及时认清事实变化。

It feels good to find data that validates our thesis, but that comfort can be dangerous in markets that punish complacency. Confirmation bias can lead us to dismiss red flags, overestimate the quality of a business, or hold onto a losing investment far longer than we should. One of the best ways to combat this is to deliberately look for the bear case, to ask, what would happen for me to be wrong here? Surrounding yourself with thoughtful investors who challenge your assumptions can also help break through that echo chamber. The goal isn't to be right all the time, but to stay open minded and flexible enough to recognize when the facts have changed.

这种谦逊和智识上的诚实，正是优秀投资者持续进化的关键。第十一课：避免不必要的复杂性。投资界充斥着许多听起来聪明实则过度复杂的理念。不幸的是我几乎犯过所有典型错误——曾尝试备兑认购期权来获取持仓收益。

That humility and intellectual honesty are what allow good investors to evolve and improve over time. Lesson number 11, avoid unnecessary complexity. In investing, there are a lot of ideas that sound smart, but are unnecessarily complex. I feel like I've unfortunately made all of the mistakes in the book. I used to try covered calls to collect income on my holdings.

我买过长期期权，不幸使用过杠杆，还投资过远超出能力圈的公司。这些活动纯粹是浪费时间和金钱。我认为多数投资者根本不需要这些操作。

I've purchased leaps. I've utilized leverage unfortunately. And I've bought into companies that were way outside my circle of competence. All of these activities were a total waste of time and money. I think most investors could do without any of those things.

他们同样不需要过度复杂的估值模型、持有过多股票或试图择时。初入市时我以为概念越复杂就越高明，但后来明白简约才是投资者的超能力。过于复杂难懂的企业可能隐藏着风险，使人难以察觉复利引擎的故障。优秀投资者明白，驱动股票长期表现的只是少数关键变量，并能过滤掉周围的噪音。

They could also do without overly complex valuation models, not owning too many stocks, or trying to time the market. When I first started investing, I thought that the more complex an idea sounded, the smarter it must be. But over time, I've realized that simplicity can be an investor's superpower. Businesses that are overly complex and difficult to understand can have some hidden risks that make it harder to see when the compounding engine isn't quite working right. Great investors understand that just a few key variables are going to drive the long term performance of a stock and are able to filter out much of the noise that surrounds that.

如果你买入并持有一批精选的优秀企业，不过多调整投资组合，那么其中只要有几家表现优异，就能带来长期的大部分回报。克里斯·梅尔在节目中告诉我，超额收益通常源于投资者愿意让赢家股在组合中占据更大比重。最后第十二条建议：独立思考。关于所谓'正确投资方式'众说纷纭，大多数人因风险偏好、经验和目标不同而采取各异的角度。

If you buy and hold a select number of great businesses and not tinker with the portfolio too much, then you only need a couple of them to do really well and carry much of the long term results. One of the things that Chris Mayer said to me on the show was that as a general rule, the source of outperformance can come from an investor's willingness to let something become a bigger part of their portfolio and to really ride those winners. And my last point here, lesson number 12, think for yourself. Plenty of people will have different opinions about quote unquote, the right way to invest. Most people are coming at the investment puzzle from different angles with different risk appetites, experiences, and goals.

独立思考意味着建立自己的决策逻辑，而非将判断权交给他人——无论对方看起来多么可信。从财经头条到社交媒体观点，各种噪音会不断将你拉向不同方向。顶尖投资者善于倾听但坚守基于自身分析的决策。独立不是拒绝他人意见，而是在群体盲动时有勇气坚持自己的投资逻辑。因为某个投资者听起来很聪明或业绩出色就采纳其观点总是容易的。

Thinking independently means developing your own reasoning process and not outsourcing your conviction to others, no matter how credible they may seem. You'll constantly be surrounded by noise from market headlines to social media opinions, each pulling you in different directions. The best investors learn to listen thoughtfully, but make decisions that are rooted in their own analysis and principles. Independent thinking doesn't mean ignoring others, It means having the courage to stay grounded in your process when the crowd is headed the other way. It's easy to adopt someone else's investment idea because maybe that investor sounds smart or has a really good track record.

但若买入后股价下跌30%，只有亲自研究过的人才有信心坚守。真正的信念无法借用，必须通过自主研究获得。我认为多数时候你的投资在旁人看来都会显得疯狂——如果太在意他人看法，最终疯掉的会是你自己。

But if the stock drops 30% after you buy it, you'll only have the confidence to hold it if you've done the work yourself. True conviction cannot be borrowed. It has to be earned through your own research. I have this theory that most of the time your investments are going to look crazy to other people. So if you take other people's opinion too seriously, you're going to drive yourself crazy.

巴菲特职业生涯最成功的投资之一是1988年对可口可乐的持仓。随后十年间可口可乐股价上涨十倍，而标普500仅上涨三倍。但可口可乐在这十年中只有六年跑赢大盘。正确决策未必短期见效，你持有的企业会经历波动，最看好的投资也可能出现20%、30%甚至40%的回撤。

One of Warren Buffett's most successful investments in his career was his Coca Cola investment in 1988. Over the ten years that followed that investment, shares of Coke went up by tenfold, while the S and P five hundred went up by threefold. However, Coca Cola outperformed the market in only six of those ten years. So the right decision doesn't always equate with the outcome you wanted in the short term. There will be times when the businesses you own go through some turbulence and there will be drawdowns of 20%, 30%, 40% in some of your best investments.

市场总会试图吓退你的最佳构想，能否坚守取决于你的独立思考能力。本杰明·格雷厄姆曾说：'任由市场非理性下跌影响决策的投资者，正在将基本优势扭曲为根本劣势。对这种人而言，股票没有市场报价反而更好，能避免因他人误判而承受精神折磨。'投资虽有乐趣，但难免经历艰难时刻——无论是持有他人认为乏味的股票，还是避开众人追逐的狂热。对我而言，最难熬的是持仓浮亏之时。

The market will try to scare you out of your best ideas and it will be up to you to think for yourself and have the conviction in what you own. Benjamin Graham stated, The investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would be spared the mental anguish caused by another person's mistakes of judgment. As fun as investing can be, we're all inevitably go through some discomforting times. Whether it's holding a stock that others think is boring or avoiding a mania everyone else is chasing, for me, the most discomforting thing is being down on my positions.

但煎熬是成功的必要代价。最终，最佳投资构想永远源于自主研究——这个游戏并不需要超高智商才能玩转。正如前文所述，与智者同行大有裨益，但决策时仍需依靠自身判断。价值投资的核心是理解价格与价值：价格是你支付的，价值是你获得的。

But discomfort is part of the price of success. Ultimately, your best investment ideas will come from you doing your own work and you don't have to have insane levels of IQ to figure this game out. Like I mentioned earlier, surrounding yourself with really smart people can be extraordinarily helpful, but still rely on your own judgment in making decisions. Value investing is about understanding price and value. Price is what you pay and value is what you get.

市场会给出各种报价，其中多数定价相对合理。你对自己持有的企业理解越深，就越能对其价值保持信心。最后，选择符合你技能、目标和个性的投资哲学。当找到适合自己的策略，就等于找到了能长期坚持的方法。为帮助你探索，我推荐四本书籍。

The market will quote you all sorts of prices, but most of which will be fairly rationally priced. The more you understand about the businesses you own, the more confident you can be in whatever their value might be. Finally, select an investment philosophy that suits your own skillset, goals, and personality. When you select a strategy that fits you, then you've found an approach that you're more likely to stick with over the long term. To help you find your own path, I would suggest four books.

威廉·格林的《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》，高塔姆·巴德的《复利的喜悦》，克里斯·梅耶的《百倍股》，以及罗伯特·哈格斯特罗姆的《巴菲特之道》。这四本书彻底改变了我对投资世界的认知。归根结底，请记住享受这个过程。不要通过与他人比较来过度衡量自己的进步，因为每个人的道路都各不相同。投资是最能带来智力回报的追求之一。

Richer, Wiser, Happier by William Green, The Joys of Compounding by Gautam Bade, 100 Baggers by Chris Mayer, and The Warren Buffet Way by Robert Hagstrom. All four of these books have been instrumental in how I view the world of investing. At the end of the day, remember to enjoy the journey. Don't measure your progress too closely by comparing yourself to others as everyone's path will look different. Investing is one of the most intellectually rewarding pursuits out there.

如果你以好奇心和耐心对待它，它给你的将远不止财务回报。它能塑造你的思维方式、决策过程，最终改变你看待世界的方式。在价值投资之旅中，你还有机会遇到一些真正优秀的人，他们与你一样热爱学习和独立思考。这些关系往往和投资本身一样有价值，并能成为进一步成长的灵感源泉。在TIP，我们有几个社区，让听众有机会与志同道合的人建立联系。

And if you approach it with curiosity and patience, it will give you far more than just financial returns. It can shape how you think, how you make decisions and ultimately how you view the world. Alongside your value investing journey, you'll also have a chance to meet some truly wonderful people who share your passion for learning and independent thinking. Those relationships often become just as rewarding as investing itself and can be a source of inspiration for further growth. Here at TIP, we have a few communities that give our audience members the opportunity to network with like minded people.

我负责管理之前提到的智囊团社区。这个约120人的团体主要由企业家、私人投资者或资产管理人组成。我们每周通过Zoom进行实时讨论并录制，每年还会在奥马哈和纽约市举行两次线下聚会。如果你想了解更多关于智囊团社区的信息，可以访问theinvestorspodcast.com/mastermind。

I help manage our mastermind community, which I mentioned earlier. This is a group of around 120 people who tend to be entrepreneurs, private investors, or asset managers. We get together weekly for live Zoom discussions that we record and we meet in person twice a year in Omaha and New York City. So if you're interested in learning more about the mastermind community, you can go to theinvestorspodcast.com/mastermind. That's theinvestorspodcast.com/mastermind.

我们下一场线下活动将于五月伯克希尔股东大会周末期间在奥马哈举行。2025年我们有超过50人参加了社区晚宴和社交活动，预计2026年也会有不错的参与度。如果你想了解更多关于社区、我们在奥马哈的活动，或任何与伯克希尔股东大会相关的事情，我很乐意提供帮助。如果你从未参加过，我强烈建议你去奥马哈体验伯克希尔股东大会。这绝对是结识志同道合者的绝佳机会。

Our next set of live events will be in Omaha during the Berkshire weekend, the May. We had over 50 people at our community dinners and social this past year in 2025 and expect a good turnout again in 2026. If you'd like to learn more about the community, our events in Omaha, or really anything related to the Berkshire meeting, I'd be happy to help out. I definitely recommend going to Omaha to make it to the Berkshire meeting if you've never been before. It's definitely a great experience and a wonderful opportunity to connect with like minded people.

你可以通过邮件联系我，地址是claytheinvestorspodcast.com，也可以在LinkedIn上给我留言。感谢收听本期关于「给18岁自己的12条投资经验」的节目。反思并梳理这些想分享给年轻自己的重要经验非常有趣。希望其中有一两条对你也有所启发。

You can shoot me a note through email and that's claytheinvestorspodcast dot com, or you can shoot me a note on LinkedIn as well. So with that, thank you for tuning in to today's episode on the 12 investment lessons for my 18 year old self. This was a really fun one to reflect on and drill down on the most important things I would share with my younger self. Hopefully you found one or two of them useful for yourself.

感谢收听TIP节目。请确保在您喜欢的播客应用中关注《亿万富豪研究》，不要错过任何节目。访问theinvestorspodcast.com可获取节目注释、文字稿或课程内容。本节目仅用于娱乐目的，决策前请咨询专业人士。

Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow We Study Billionaires on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes. To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to the investorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decision, consult a professional.

本节目版权归The Investor's Podcast Network所有，未经书面许可不得转播或公开传播。

This show is copyrighted by The Investor's Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.