TIP765：世界伟大哲学家关于财富与智慧的永恒教诲——与凯尔·格里夫斯共探

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你可曾想过，世界上最伟大的哲学家们能教会我们什么关于股市的道理？因为投资的本质远不止数字、模型或财务报表，而是关乎我们的思维方式。它涉及我们如何在不确定性中决策、如何管理情绪，甚至如何从根本上定义成功。斯宾诺莎曾说，要真正理解事物，我们必须从永恒的视角来阐述。

Have you ever wondered what the world's greatest philosophers can teach us about the stock market? Because the truth is investing isn't just numbers, models, or financial statements. It's about how we think. It's about how we make decisions under uncertainty, how we manage our emotions, and even how we define success in the first place. Spinoza once said that to understand something truly, we must say it in the aspect of eternity.

将这个理念应用于投资时，它提醒我们跳脱眼前——停止执着于每日价格波动，转而关注持久价值。尼采激励我们坚守正直，即使逆流而行也要坚持正确之事，这一哲学观被沃伦·巴菲特践行数十年。而大卫·休谟关于健康怀疑论的见解？它们正是对抗困扰投资者数十年的从众心理和情绪化投资的最佳解药。我们还将探讨帕斯卡的《运气论》、财富如何在瞬间转变，以及为何谦逊可能是金融领域最被低估的品质。

When we apply that to investing, it reminds us to simply zoom out, stop obsessing over daily price moves, and start to focus on enduring value. Nietzsche challenged us to act with integrity, to do what's right even when it's unpopular, a philosophy that Warren Buffett has echoed for decades. And David Hume's idea on healthy skepticism? They're the perfect antidote to the herd mentality and emotional investing that have plagued investors for decades. We'll also explore Blaise Pascal's Lessons on Luck, How Fortunes Can Change in an Absolute Instant, and Why Humility Might Be The Most Underrated Skill in Finance.

你将了解伏尔泰对盲目乐观的批判如何适用于有效市场假说，威廉·詹姆斯的实用主义哲学如何帮我们区分有用理论与空谈。我们会将这些思想与现代投资世界连接——从模拟测试和市场叙事如何影响判断，到李小龙'如水般适应'的思维为何能成为应对市场变化的最佳框架。听完本期节目，你会明白哲学如何锐化思维、平复情绪、厘清投资逻辑，不仅助你做出更优决策，更能带着更明确的目标生活与投资。如果你曾感觉投资不止是追逐收益，如果你渴望了解决策背后的深层驱动力，那么这期节目正为你而制。现在，让我们开启本周的哲学与市场人生课。

You'll learn how Voltaire's Critique of Blind Optimism applies to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, and how William James' philosophy of pragmatism can help us separate what's useful from what's merely theoretical. We'll even connect these ideas to the modern investing world from how simulations and market narratives can either empower or mislead us, to why Bruce Lee's Be Water mindset can be the single best framework for adapting to changing markets. By the end of this episode, you'll see how philosophy can sharpen your thinking, calm your emotions, and bring clarity to your investing process, helping you not only make better decisions, but live and invest with more purpose. If you ever felt that investing is more than just chasing returns, if you've ever wanted to understand the deeper forces that are driving your choices, beliefs, and decision making, then this episode is for you. Now, let's get into this week's episode on what the great philosophers can teach us about the markets and life.

自2014年起，通过超过1.8亿次下载量的沉淀，我们深入研究金融市场，精读塑造亿万富翁的经典著作。我们助您洞悉先机，未雨绸缪。现在有请主持人凯尔·格里夫斯。

Since 2014 and through more than 180,000,000 downloads, we've studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Kyle Grieve.

欢迎来到投资者播客，我是主持人凯尔·格里夫斯。今天我们将探讨一个在投资圈鲜少被深入讨论的话题——哲学。为了更好地理解哲学与投资的互动关系，我们将研读伊桑·埃弗里特的著作《投资哲人》，这部杰作精彩展现了如何从哲学中汲取养分，以更有利的方式重构投资思维。

Welcome to the investors podcast. I'm your host, Kyle Grieve. And today, we're going to discuss a topic that isn't particularly heavily discussed in most investing circles. And that's a topic of philosophy. So to better help us understand the interplay of philosophy and investing, we're gonna be examining the book, the investment philosophers by Ethan Everett, who did an absolutely terrific job of showing just how many lessons can be drawn from philosophy to help us think about investing in different, more beneficial ways.

本杰明·格雷厄姆是最早将哲学引入投资讲座的先驱之一。据其学生回忆，格雷厄姆开课时总会说：'若想在华尔街赚钱，必须具备正确的心理态度。哲学家斯宾诺莎对此的诠释最为精辟——必须从永恒的视角观察事物。'值得注意的是，格雷厄姆在探讨投资之前，早已具备深厚的哲学功底。

Benjamin Graham was one of the earliest investors to actively discuss philosophy in investing lectures. According to Graham's students, Graham began teaching his courses by saying, if you want to make money on Wall Street, you must have the proper psychological attitude. No one expresses it better than Spinoza, the philosopher. Spinoza said, you must look at things in the aspect of eternity. Now, Graham had a strong background in philosophy before he began discussing investing.

因此他借鉴这一理论来更好地理解投资界是合理的。斯宾诺莎的核心理念之一涉及叙事——传统故事能让普通人更容易理解宗教中的道德教义。令人惊叹的是，巴鲁克·斯宾诺莎在十七世纪就洞悉了叙事的力量。近年来的大量研究也证实了他的观点：讲故事能同时激活理性与情感通路，更全面地调动记忆系统，并培养共情能力，这些都使得故事中蕴含的教训更令人难忘。

So it made sense that he would draw on it to understand the investing world better. One of Spinoza's principles pertains to narratives, and that was that traditional stories made it easier for the lay person to relate to moral teachings specifically within religion. Incredibly, Baruch Spinoza knew the power of narratives in the seventeenth century. Numerous studies conducted more recently supported his premise. That storytelling is just key for activating rational and emotional pathways, engaging memory systems more fully, and fostering empathy, All of which make the embedded lesson in a story much more stickier.

斯宾诺莎发现的问题是：听故事虽是接触教义的绝佳入门方式，但你知道，它并未真正优化到最高层次的理解水平。这更多停留在表层。若要真正领悟原理，必须深入挖掘才能触及那些深层教诲。正因如此，本书作者认为格雷厄姆才创造了'市场先生'这个比喻。

Now, the problem that Spinoza identified was that listening to a story was a great introduction to a teaching, but it wasn't really optimized, you know, for the highest quality level of understanding. It was more surface level. And if you wanted to truly understand principles, you had to really dig a layer deeper to get to those lessons. And that is why the book's author believed that Graham came up with the Mr. Market analogy.

为了帮助学生最透彻地理解指导市场的根本原理与智慧。现在让我们重温格雷厄姆提及的斯宾诺莎与永恒性。我们知道市场情绪是短暂的，几乎每日都在变化。因此要最深层次地理解市场并超越这种无常，你必须认清内在价值。

To help his students best understand the underlying principles and wisdom that guide the market. Now let's revisit Graham's mentioning of Spinoza and Eternity. We know the market sentiment is impermanent. It changes nearly daily. So to try to understand the market at the deepest level and transcend that impermanence, you must realize intrinsic value.

这是格雷厄姆献给投资界的礼物——理解资产真实价值并将其与市场观点区分开来的能力。我们稍后会回到斯宾诺莎，但首先来看看人类历史上最具价值的公司。如果今天问你这个问题，你可能会打开电脑搜索'科技七巨头'中谁最值钱，或直接询问ChatGPT。截至2025年9月8日，全球市值最高的公司是英伟达，估值约4.2万亿美元。

This was Graham's gift to the investing world. The ability to understand what an asset was worth and separate that value from the market's opinion of it. We'll return to Spinoza shortly, but first, let's go over the most valuable company that the world has ever seen. If I asked you what that company was today, you might open up your computer, search for which mag seven company is most valuable, or maybe just simply ask ChatGPT. As of 09/08/2025, the most valuable company in the world is NVIDIA, which is valued at around $4,200,000,000,000.

但这其实是错误答案，因为荷兰东印度公司才是真正的冠军。1637年巅峰时期，该公司经通胀调整后的市值约为7.5万亿美元。为何这很重要？因为一位名为拉比·梅纳斯的绅士对荷兰东印度公司怀有极深的敬意，他可能通过持有该公司股份获得了巨额财富。这位拉比后来成为了巴鲁克·斯宾诺莎的老师。

But that's actually the incorrect choice because the Dutch East India Company is actually the winner. At its peak valuation in 1637, the business had an inflation adjusted market value of around $7,500,000,000,000. Now why is that important? Because a gentleman named Rabbi Menace had very, very deep respect for the Dutch East India Company and perhaps gained a pretty substantial portion of his wealth from owning shares in that company. Rabbi Menace would later become Baruch Spinoza's teacher.

现在让我们深入探讨斯宾诺莎可应用于投资的关键教义之一。斯宾诺莎使用了一个对他极为重要的术语——'conatus'（努力），源自拉丁语'奋斗'。他写道：'每个事物就其自身而言，都努力保持其存在。'可以说这种努力本质驱动着万物，尤其是市场和商业领袖。毫无疑问，企业都遵循这一原则。

Now let's dive into one of Spinoza's key lessons that we can apply to investing. So Spinoza used a term that had great importance to him, conatus, which is derived from the Latin term for striving. Spinoza wrote, each thing insofar as itself endeavors to persist in its own being. You could easily argue that konatus essentially drives everything, especially things like markets and business leaders. Now there's no doubt that businesses ascribe to this principle.

持续经营并为所有者提供有吸引力的投资回报是企业的核心使命。一旦企业失去吸引力，资产就会贬值甚至可能变得一文不值。而企业的驱动力正是这种'努力'——它竭力保持竞争优势与市场地位，避免被资本主义力量剥夺这些特质。斯宾诺莎阐述了两种努力：第一是整体自然的努力。

It's the core of companies to remain in business and to continue to provide their owners with an attractive investment. Once the business is no longer appealing, the asset loses its value and may one day become worthless. Now the driving force of a company is Kanatis, which strives to maintain its competitive advantages and positioning and to avoid losing those attributes to the forces of capitalism. Spinoza outlined two types of striving. Number one, the striving of the whole of nature.

第二点，个体事物为维持自身存在而进行的努力。这里的重要教训是，这两种努力很容易出现错位。书中以企业为例说明：公司内部的不同单元——基层员工、CEO和股东——可能各自追求不同的目标。基层员工想要好工作和高薪水。

And number two, the striving in individual things to maintain and preserve their own existence. Now the important lesson here is that the two types of striving can very, very easily be misaligned. The book outlines an example inside of a business. So the individual units within a company such as a lower level employee, the CEO, and the shareholders may all have different objectives that they're striving for. Lower level employees want a good job and good pay.

股东希望投资获得良好回报。而CEO可能更关心为下一份目标工作建立良好声誉。一个热衷于建立商业帝国的CEO，很容易以牺牲员工和股东利益为代价达成目标。我认为这种现象相当常见，这也正是为何必须找到与股东利益高度一致的管理层至关重要。优秀的企业还会帮助员工也成为股东。

Shareholders want a good return on their investment. And CEOs might be more concerned with just building a good reputation for the next job that they have in mind. A CEO that's more concerned with building an empire can easily do this at the expense of both the employees and the shareholders. Now I think you see this happen pretty often, and it's a big reason why it's vital to find management that is very well aligned with shareholders. And great businesses will help make their employees shareholders as well.

像Constellation Software、Topicus或Lumine这样的公司，为全体员工提供了惊人的激励机制。当他们创造价值时，会获得公开市场的股票奖励，这些股票有三到五年的锁定期。这创造了卓越的利益一致性。当三方利益一致时，就更有可能确保Kanatis原则惠及整体，而整体中的各个部分也能从改进中相互受益。斯宾诺莎的第二课涉及情绪的力量，它往往对投资者弊大于利。

A company like Constellation Software, Topicus, or Lumine have incredible incentives for employees all across the board. When they create value, they are rewarded with shares on the open market that stay in escrow for three to five years. This creates exceptional alignment. When you have all three parties aligned, then you get a better chance of making sure that the principle of Kanatis is benefiting the whole and that the individual parts of that whole are mutually benefiting from improvement. Spinoza's second lesson concerns the power of emotion, which often do more harm than good to investors.

必须认识到，错误观念会腐蚀Kanatis原则。这些错误观念往往源于非理性情绪。斯宾诺莎写道：' bondage（奴役）这个词恰当地描述了人类无力控制和抑制情绪的状态。受情绪支配的人不是自己的主人，而是命运的奴隶，他常常被迫选择更糟的路线，尽管明明看到了更好的方向。'我们都在某种程度上受情绪影响。

It's important to understand that bad ideas can corrupt Kanatis. And these bad ideas tend to stem from irrational emotions. Spinoza wrote, the term bondage is appropriate for man's lack of power to control and check the emotions. For a man at the mercy of his emotions is not his own master, but is subject to fortune in whose power he so lies that he is often compelled, although he sees the better course to pursue the worse. We are all emotional to some degree.

但最优秀的投资者能通过自我观察来控制情绪。斯宾诺莎对抗情绪有害影响的核心方法就是：清晰理解情绪，使其显性化，从而获得一定控制力，避免沦为被动情绪的奴隶。我曾拥有名为Simply Sovereign Concentrates的企业（现已全部出售），持有期间我的情绪波动极大。最初收购时，我对管理层印象极佳。

But the best investors can exercise some control over their emotions through observing themselves. Spinoza's underlying lessons for combating the deleterious forces of our emotions is just to understand them very clearly, make them known to us, which then allows us to have some degree of control over them and avoid them becoming passive emotions. Now I own a business called Simply Sovereign Concentrates, which I sold in full. With that position, my emotions were just all over the place. When I first bought it, I was really impressed with management.

我认为他们在整合加拿大分散的大麻产业方面做得很好，但后来我的情绪因几个原因发生剧变：首先是他们计划中的收购案流产，严重惊吓了市场；接着他们进行了重大会计调整，损害了财务状况。交易失败时，我在笔记中写道（为准备本期内容我翻看了记录），自己竟对股价下跌感到惊喜，认为这是增持的好机会。

I thought they were doing a great job of consolidating the fragmented cannabis industry in Canada, but my emotions changed significantly for a few reasons. So first was that there was an acquisition that they had planned, fell through, and that really spooked the market. And then they made a significant accounting adjustment, which hurt their financials. When the deal kind of fell through, I had a note in my journal that I looked back in preparation for this episode. And it said that I was happily surprised by the price drop because I felt like it was a decent opportunity to buy more shares.

但我也标注这可能是错误判断。三周后，当发现审计师导致会计政策重大变更时，我愤怒地写下自己未能充分理解收入确认原则，最终清仓所有股份。这里我的情绪既让我错失股价下跌时的买入机会，又促使我抛售了持股——当时我对公司恢复常态的能力已毫无信心，也证明自己对企业理解不足。时间会证明这是错误还是正确决定。若在最初出现重大不利条件时能更好掌控情绪，我可能就不会选择增持。

But I also noted that this might be a mistake. Then three weeks later, when it was known that the accounting had changed significantly due to the auditors, I angrily wrote that I had failed to understand revenue recognition well enough and ended up selling all of my shares. Now here my emotions harmed me in terms of seeing the opportunity to pick up shares when the price dropped and then helped me sell out of a business where I think I just had very little faith in the company's ability to return to normalcy and prove that I just didn't understand the business well enough to account for this outcome. Time will tell if this was a mistake or was the right move. Had I had a better grasp of my emotions when the initial uncertainty of that material adverse condition arose, I probably would have stayed away from adding shares.

毕竟，我认为当时掌握的数据不足以支持在那个想法上投入更多资金。那样做本可以让我少亏些钱，但这不过是种得不偿失的胜利。说到人生中的胜利，我们可能成功也可能失败，这不仅取决于结果，更在于过程。而这个过程往往不为人所见。这正好引出下一位哲学家弗里德里希·尼采。

After all, I don't think I had enough data to put more money behind that idea. That would have meant I lost less money, which is really a pyrrhic victory. Now speaking of victories in life, we can still be victorious or defeated, not only by the outcomes, but also by the process. And this process is often hidden from public view. This leads nicely to our next philosopher, Friedrich Nietzsche.

别担心，我会适时回到这个话题。尼采曾提出一个他称为永恒轮回的思想实验：想象某天有个恶魔告诉你，你当前的生活将无数次重复上演，每一次都分毫不差——所有痛苦与欢愉，每个念头与叹息，生命中微不足道或举足轻重的瞬间都将以完全相同的顺序重现。如果我们用这个实验审视自己，就必须回答许多问题，才能确保自己活出了非凡的人生。

Don't worry, I'll circle back on this in due time. Now Nietzsche proposed an interesting thought experiment which he called the eternal recurrence. Imagine your approach by a demon who tells you this life as you now live it and have lived it, you will have to live once more and innumerable times more. And there will be nothing new in it, but every pain and every joy and every thought and sigh and everything unutterably small or great in your life will have to return to you and in the same succession and sequence. Now, if we use this thought experiment on ourselves, there's probably gonna be a lot of questions we'd have to ask to make sure that we lived an extraordinary life.

毕竟这种生活会永恒重复。比起充满痛苦的人生，我们显然更想要充满喜悦的人生。明白这点后，我们的行为会更审慎，更注重每个行动的长期影响。听到这里，你可能已经联想到巴菲特用内心记分卡生活的方式——他更注重内心认定的正确之事，而非表面正确但内心抵触的行为。

After all, it would be repeated eternally. We probably prefer a life full of joy rather than a life full of pain. Now knowing this, we'd be much more thoughtful in how we act and consider the long term consequences of all of our actions. Listening to this, you might already be connecting the dots to how Buffett has lived his life with an inner scorecard. He focuses more on what he knew was right on the inside versus doing what might appear right on the outside, but just feels wrong on the inside.

那么尼采为何要教导我们这样思考？他那个时代的道德训诫根植于宗教哲学，这套体系通过奖惩机制来劝导人们行善：作恶者将永堕地狱，行善者则获天国永生。

So why did Nietzsche teach us to think this way? The moral lessons of Nietzsche's time were underpinned by religious philosophy. This system relied on the use of reward and punishment to encourage people to act morally. If you did wrong, you were damned for eternity in hell. And if you did right, you were blessed with eternal life in heaven.

但尼采并不同意这种激励制度。他认为，在人们面前悬赏这些激励以激发道德行为，只能带来并非真正道德的行为，因为这些行为仅仅是出于行为者的私利而执行的。这很好地揭示了为何巴菲特如此重视他的内在与外在评分卡。尼采和巴菲特都认为，人们的外在行为与内心感受之间存在一场较量。就巴菲特而言，仅仅因为某事合法或是众所周知的商业惯例，并不意味着它就是正确的。

But Nietzsche disagreed with this incentive system. Nietzsche felt that dangling these incentives in front of people to inspire moral actions can only bring about actions that themselves are not moral, since they will only be performed out of the self interest of those performing them. Now this does a great job of shining a light on specifically why Buffett placed such a high importance on his inner versus outer scorecard. Both Nietzsche and Buffett believe that there was a battle between how people acted outwardly and how they felt within. In Buffett's case, just because something was considered legal or a well known business practice did not mean that it was the right thing to do.

一个很好的例子是巴菲特在所罗门兄弟国债投标丑闻后接任临时董事长时。作为大股东的巴菲特介入，试图改善所罗门兄弟受损的形象。他在任期间说过一句名言，我认为这充分体现了他的处事原则：'为公司亏钱，我会理解；但损害公司一丝声誉，我将毫不留情。'

A good example of this is when Buffett took over as the interim chairman of the Solomon Brothers after their treasury bidding scandal. So Buffett, who was already a large shareholder, came in to try to improve the poor image that Solomon Brothers had had. And while he was in charge, he said a great line that I think really highlighted his process. Lose money for the firm, and I will be understanding. Lose a shredder reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless.

虽然所罗门公司内部许多人认为他们能为公司创造更多收入，但巴菲特认为其中一些方法处于灰色地带，这促使他说出这句名言作为对员工的警告，确保他们不会做出任何损害所罗门声誉的事。无论这些行为是否合法都无关紧要。在伯克希尔2010年致股东的年报中，巴菲特写道：'我们必须持续以双重标准衡量每个行为——不仅要看它是否合法，还要看我们是否乐意看到它被一位不怀好意但聪明的记者写成报道，刊登在全国性报纸的头版。有时你的同事会说‘别人都这么做’。如果这成为商业行为的主要理由，那几乎总是个糟糕的借口。'

While many inside Solomon felt they could generate more revenue for the company, Buffett believed that some of those approaches were just in kind of gray areas, which prompted him to say this quote as a warning to employees to make sure they weren't doing anything that would harm Solomon's reputation. It didn't matter if it was considered legal or not. In Berkshire's 2010 annual report to shareholders, Buffett writes, we must continue to measure every act against not only what is legal, but also what we would be happy to have written about on the front page of a national newspaper in an article written by an unfriendly but intelligent reporter. Sometimes your associates will say, everybody else is doing it. This rationale is almost always a bad one if it is the main justification for a business action.

在评估道德决策时，'大家都这么做'这种说辞完全不可接受。每当有人用这句话作为理由，实际上等于承认他们找不到正当依据。如果有人给出这种解释，就让他们试试对记者或法官这么说，看能有多大效果。如果你对任何行为的正当性或合法性产生迟疑，务必给我打电话。不过很可能，如果一个行动方案引发这种犹豫，就说明它已经越界，应当放弃。

It is totally unacceptable when evaluating a moral decision. Whenever somebody offers that phrase as a rationale, in effect, they are saying that they can't come up with a good reason. If anyone gives this explanation, tell them to try using it with a reporter or a judge and see how far it gets them. If you see anything whose propriety or legality causes you to hesitate, be sure to give me a call. However, it's very likely that if given course of action evokes such hesitation, it's just too close to the line and should be abandoned.

在球场中央也能赚得盆满钵满。如果某项行动是否越界存疑，就直接假定它已经越界并放弃。现在我们讨论了尼采和巴菲特在道德观上的相似之处，接下来谈谈成功以及他们对美好生活的见解。尼采和巴菲特都认为，一个人的成功不该用财富来衡量。

There's plenty of money to be made in the center of the court. If it's questionable, whether some action is close to the line, just assume it's outside and forget it. Now we've discussed the similarities of Nietzsche's and Buffett's thoughts on morality. Now let's turn to success and their thoughts on living a good life. Neither Nietzsche nor Buffett believed a person's success should be measured by their wealth.

巴菲特说，如果你活到九十多岁却没人尊敬你，银行账户的数字就毫无意义，你的人生就是场灾难。尼采则质问：你们是否也参与了当下各国的集体疯狂——那种不顾一切追求最大产量和最多财富的癫狂？你们更应该做的是向他们展示相反的账本：为了这个外在目标，人们抛弃了多少内在价值。尼采所处的时代，投机活动在德国也正肆虐横行。

Buffett says that if you get into your nineties and nobody thinks well of you, the size of your bank account doesn't matter and your life is just a disaster. Nietzsche said, are you accomplices in the current folly of the nations, the folly of wanting above all to produce as much as possible and to become as rich as possible? What you ought to do rather is to hold up to them the counter reckoning. How great a sum of inner value is thrown away in pursuit of this external goal. Nietzsche also lived in a time when speculation was running absolutely rampant in Germany.

1869年柏林证券交易所仅有72家上市公司。1871年德国统一后，普鲁士公司法在全国推行，公开交易股票数量激增。到1873年上市公司膨胀至441家，占德国GDP的25%。但随着狂热情绪消退，随后十年上市公司数量回落至387家。尼采亲眼见证了这期间投机者在股市中的得失沉浮。

So in 1869, 72 firms traded on the Berlin Stock Exchange. In 1871, following the unification of Germany, Prussia's corporate statute was adopted nationwide, leading to an increase in publicly traded stocks. By 1873, the number of stocks expanded to 441 companies, making up 25% of Germany's GDP. However, over the following decade, sentiment really shifted as the euphoria started to wear off, and the number of listed companies decreased to 387. So Nietzsche observed the money that was made and lost by speculators in the stock market during this time.

尼采将许多投机行为称为合法化的欺诈。这也是巴菲特反复探讨的主题，他的立场与尼采完全一致。就像所有投机行为一样，我们常从表象评判结果——媒体大肆渲染一夜暴富的故事，却绝口不提投机者承担的风险。尼采和巴菲特建议人们审视内心：创造价值的方式是否正确？因为即便结果良好，也可能源自错误的内在过程。

Nietzsche referred to many of the actions that he saw as a legalized fraud and speculation. This is a subject that Buffett has endlessly discussed, and his stance is completely in agreement with Nietzsche's. As with all speculation, we often judge the result that people get from an outward view. The media highlights the overnight millionaires, but refuses to discuss the amount of risk that speculators took. Nietzsche and Buffett suggest that you look inward to observe whether the way you create value is the right or wrong approach, because even a good outcome can be the product of a flawed internal process.

长期投资者难免会持有最终成为泡沫的股票。因此无论持有什么股票，都必须持续关注价格与价值，对暴涨后的价格保持警惕。怀疑精神是对抗内心贪婪恶魔的利器。但怀疑是否可能过度？这个问题可以从大卫·休谟那里找到答案。

Now, if you invest long enough, chances are that you're going to own a stock that maybe eventually is gonna be part of some sort of bubble. So no matter what stocks you own, you must always look at the price and value and aim to be skeptical of where the price is after it appreciates to a very high degree. Skepticism is an excellent tool for combating the inner demon of greed. But can we have too much skepticism? This is a question that David Hume can help us answer.

休谟将怀疑论分为两种：健康的怀疑与过度的怀疑。他认为，只要保持适度的健康怀疑，就能自动矫正可能存在的过度怀疑。所谓过度怀疑，就是不加思考地反对一切——其问题正出在这个'盲目'上。

So Hume thought of skepticism in two primary ways. One, healthy skepticism, and two, excessive skepticism. Luckily, if you have a healthy dose of healthy skepticism, Hume believed that it would self correct for any excessive skepticism that might be lingering around. Now excessive skepticism, if you're wondering, is to argue from the opposite of everything mindlessly. The problem with excessive skepticism is in the word blind.

若盲目争辩，永远无法得出有益结论。休谟写道：过度怀疑主义的主要且最具破坏性的反对意见在于，当其保持全部力量时，任何持久的益处都无法从中产生。只需询问这类怀疑者他的意图是什么，他通过这些奇特研究想达成什么目的，他立刻就会陷入困境，不知如何作答。他的哲学对社会毫无裨益。

If you blindly argue, you will never reach a helpful conclusion. Hume writes, for here is the chief and most confounding objection to excessive skepticism, that no durable good can ever result from it, while it remains in its full force and vigor. He need only ask such a skeptic what his meaning is and what he proposes by all these curious researches. He is immediately a strand and knows not what to answer. His philosophy will not be beneficial to society.

相反地，如果他愿意承认任何事，就必须承认：若某种原则普遍且持续地占据上风，人类生活必将毁灭。怀疑主义的关键在于保持怀疑态度，但避免陷入过度怀疑。运用健康怀疑主义的方法，是在思考过程中注入常识并进行反思。虽然常识或许算不上最精妙的认知方式，但对于保持适度怀疑已绰绰有余。现在问题转化为：如何利用怀疑主义成为更好的投资者？

On the contrary, he must acknowledge, if he will acknowledge anything, that all human life must perish where principles universally and steadily to prevail. Now the key to skepticism is to remain skeptical, but not allow yourself to become excessively skeptical. The way to utilize healthy skepticism is by injecting some common sense and reflecting into your thinking processes. While common sense may not be the most refined type of sense that you can get, it more than suffices for a healthy dose of skepticism. Now the question becomes, how do we use skepticism to become better investors?

作为投资者，我明白当市场开始形成与我假设相符的公司认知时，企业股价就会上涨。这个过程有时较长，有时较短，但终将发生。我是否应该费心说服市场接受我的观点？休谟曾致信亚当·斯密，讨论依赖少数能人审阅其著作的重要性。我认为这是看待投资的绝佳视角，也是我从TIP智囊团社区获益良多的主要原因之一。

As an investor, I know that a business's stock will go up when the market starts to form a perception of a company that aligns with my hypothesis. Sometimes this can take longer, and sometimes this can take shorter, but it will happen eventually. Should I concern myself with trying to persuade the market to take my sense? Hume once wrote a letter to Adam Smith, where he discussed the importance of relying on a few capable people to examine his work. I think this is a great way to look at investing, and it's one of the biggest reasons that I've gotten so much out of our TIP mastermind community.

我可以与那些能理性分析企业、就我可能忽略之处给予诚实反馈的人分享观点。但休谟在此讨论的关键，是需要通过高质量过滤器筛选想法。若你寻求低质量意见者的共识，其效用远不及你信任且对相关企业有深层理解之人。休谟认为共识实际上是值得我们特别怀疑自身主张的良好反馈机制。或许这就是为何许多传统价值投资者在价格与价值趋同时就急于抛售赢家。

I can share my ideas with people who will intelligently look at the business and give me honest feedback on maybe where I'm overlooking something. However, the key Hume was discussing here was the need to filter your ideas through high quality filters. If you seek consensus from those who have low quality opinions, they're just not gonna be nearly as useful as someone who you can trust and who understands the business in question at a much deeper level. Hume believed that the consensus was actually a good feedback mechanism to be extra skeptical of our own assertions. Perhaps that's why many more traditional value investors are just so eager to sell their winners when price and value converge.

寻求他人认同的根本问题在于情绪。当达成共识时，情绪容易蒙蔽判断或使人放松警惕。而警惕性降低时，正是最可能安于现状、非理性思考并犯下代价惨重错误的时刻。但巴菲特对投资舒适度是这么看的：重要人物、发声者或多数人的认同不会带给我们丝毫安慰。

The problem with chasing people down to agree with you comes down to emotions. When you have a consensus, it's easy to allow emotions to cloud your judgment or let your guard down. And when your guard is down, that's when you're most likely to get comfortable, think irrationally, and make some pretty costly mistakes. But here's what Buffett thought about comfort in investing. We derive no comfort because important people, vocal people, or a great number of people agree with us.

他们的反对同样不会让我们不安。民意调查无法替代独立思考。真正让我们会心一笑的，是遇到我们能理解的状况——事实清晰可辨，行动方向明确。这种情况下，无论传统还是非常规，无论他人赞同与否，我们都感觉自己在以保守方式前进。关键在于：逆向思维或保持怀疑可能是极好的特质。

Nor do we derive comfort if they don't. A public opinion poll is no substitute for thought. When we really sit back with a smile on our face is when we run into a situation that we can understand, where the facts are ascertainable and clear, and the course of action obvious. In that case, whether conventional or unconventional, whether others agree or disagree, we feel we're progressing in a conservative manner. The point here is that being a contrarian or skeptical can be a great thing.

但成为逆向投资者还有一项至关重要的要素：你的逆向观点必须正确。过度怀疑可能导致持有错误的逆向观点，而基于这类观点投资基本上等于自取灭亡。迈克尔·斯坦哈特曾说逆向操作很容易，人人都能做到。但成为优秀投资者的关键，是要做判断正确的逆向思考者。

However, there's one more key to being a contrarian that matters greatly, and that is that you're correct on your contrarian opinion. Excessive skepticism can lead to holding incorrect contrarian opinions, and investing these types of views are basically a death sentence. Michael Steinhardt claimed that being contrarian was easy. Anybody can do it. But the key to being a good investor was to be a good contrarian who was also right in their judgment.

当你能以不同于市场的思维进行判断，下注并最终正确时，巨额利润便由此产生。霍华德·马克斯就如何运用怀疑精神进行投资给出了他最好的建议。当我们持怀疑态度时，应在极端时期与市场共识反向而行。当市场陷入极度狂热时，羊群效应会驱使人们将所有现金投入估值越来越高的机会，妄想轻松获得全垒打。而怀疑者则会抛售高估股票，开始囤积现金。

When you can think differently from the market, make a bet, and then be correct, that's where the big money lies. Howard Marks gives some of his best advice possible on how to utilize skepticism in investing. If we are skeptical, we should take an opposite view of the consensus at extreme times. During extreme euphoria, the herd deploys all its cash into increasingly more expensive opportunities, hoping to find more easy home runs. The skeptic will sell their overpriced stocks and start hoarding cash.

怀疑者会认为市场估值过高，参与过热的市场更可能导致亏损而非盈利。

The skeptic will believe the market is expensive and participating in an overly hot market is likely to result in a loss rather than a gain.

让我们稍事休息，听听今天赞助商的内容。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

有没有注意到聪明的投资者总会对冲尾部风险，却几乎从不谈论金融压制？这里有个令人不安的真相：无论你如何谨慎构建投资组合，只要资金规则可能在一夜之间改变，你就处于危险之中。问问加拿大卡车司机被冻结的银行账户，古巴家庭被国有银行截留的汇款，或是数十个威权国家里眼睁睁看着毕生积蓄在恶性通胀中蒸发的人们。这些都不是孤立事件。

Ever notice how smart investors hedge against tail risk, but almost never talk about financial repression? Here's the uncomfortable truth. It doesn't matter how careful you build your portfolio because if the rules around your money can change overnight, you're vulnerable. Just ask the Canadian truckers whose bank accounts were frozen or Cuban families whose remittances were hijacked by state banks or citizens in dozens of authoritarian countries watching their life savings evaporate under hyperinflation. These aren't isolated incidents.

它们构成了全球性现象。这就是人权基金会发布《金融自由报告》的原因——这份每周通讯追踪政府如何将货币武器化来控制民众，以及比特币如何帮助个人抵抗金融压制。如果你关注健全货币、个人主权和金融自由，这份报告是必读刊物。这是我个人订阅并从中获益良多的报告。免费订阅请访问financialfreedomreport.org。

They're part of a global pattern. That's why the Human Rights Foundation publishes the Financial Freedom Report, a weekly newsletter that tracks how governments weaponize money to control people and how Bitcoin is helping individuals resist financial repression. If you care about sound money, personal sovereignty, and financial freedom, HRF's financial freedom report is essential reading. This is a report that I'm personally subscribed to and learn a ton from. Sign up for free at financialfreedomreport.org.

网址是financialfreedomreport.org。聪明的投资者不只盯着美联储，他们更关注全球动向。

That's financialfreedomreport.org. Smart investors don't just watch the fed, they watch the world.

作为小企业主，你没有提前下班的奢侈。你的生意24小时都在你脑海中。因此招聘时，你需要一个和你一样努力的合作伙伴。这个招聘伙伴就是领英招聘。当你下班时，领英才开始工作。

As a small business owner, you do not have the luxury of clocking out early. Your business is on your mind twenty four seven. So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do. That hiring partner is LinkedIn jobs. When you clock out, LinkedIn clocks in.

领英让免费发布职位变得简单，您可以分享到人脉网络，并在同一平台管理优质候选人。领英甚至能帮助撰写职位描述，通过深度候选人洞察快速触达合适人群。您可以免费发布职位，或付费推广以获得三倍优质申请人。使用领英的企业中，72%的中小企业表示这有助于找到高质量候选人，让您对获得最佳申请人充满信心。了解为何我们及超过250万家中小企业选择领英进行招聘。

LinkedIn makes it easy to post your job for free, share it with your network and get qualified candidates that you can manage all in one place. LinkedIn can even help you write job descriptions and quickly get your job in front of the right people with deep candidate insights. You can post your job for free or promote it to get three times more qualified applicants. And with LinkedIn, you can feel confident that you're getting the best applicants as 72% of small and medium sized businesses using LinkedIn say it helps them find high quality candidates. Find out why our business and more than 2,500,000 other small businesses use LinkedIn for hiring today.

免费发布职位请访问linkedin.com/studybill。即linkedin.com/studybill免费发布职位。条款与条件适用。有一种更好的面对面交流方式——卓越纸感移动版。它是纸质平板，将纸张的熟悉触感与平板的数字功能完美结合。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill. That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. There's a better way to meet face to face, remarkable paper pro move. It's a paper tablet, a digital notebook that combines the familiar feel of paper with the digital powers of a tablet.

从数十种内置模板开始记录笔记，随后将手写内容转为印刷体文字并通过邮件或Slack分享。想想看，我们随时随地捕捉灵感的方式各有缺陷：纸张难以整理且易丢失，笔记本电脑笨重不便，而手机又容易分散注意力。

Start by taking notes with any of the dozens of built in templates, then turn your handwriting into typed text and share it by email or Slack. Think about it, the ways we capture thoughts on the go, all have their drawbacks. Paper's hard to organize and easy to lose. Laptops are too bulky and uncomfortable. And on our phones, our attention can quickly get hijacked.

卓越纸感移动版与其他设备截然不同。其显示屏看起来、摸起来甚至听起来都像纸张。它能容纳所有笔记和文档，单次充电续航两周，却可轻松放入外套口袋。最重要的是，卓越的使命是帮助您更清晰地思考——这意味着没有应用、社交媒体或其他干扰，只有您与您的思想。

Remarkable Paper Pro Move is nothing like your other devices. It has a display that looks, feels, and even sounds like paper. It can fit all of your notes and documents and lasts up to two weeks on a single charge, but it slips easily into your jacket pocket. And most importantly, Remarkable's mission is about helping you think better. That means no apps, social media, or any other distractions, just you and your thoughts.

您可以免费试用卓越纸感移动版50天。若不符合预期，可全额退款。访问remarkable.com了解更多并立即获取您的纸感平板。网址：remarkable.com。

You can try the Remarkable Paper Pro Move for fifty days for free. And if it's not what you're looking for, you get your money back. Visit remarkable.com to learn more and get your paper tablet today. That's remarkable.com.

好的，回到节目。极度恐慌时，大众会抛售大量持仓并囤积现金，因担心市场持续下跌。怀疑论者可能承受暂时亏损等待市场情绪好转，或将所有现金投入当前出现的廉价机会。可见怀疑论者践行着健康的怀疑态度。

Alright. Back to the show. During extreme fear, the herd sells much of their holdings and hoards cash out of fear that the market will continue to go downwards. The skeptic may either accept temporary losses and wait until the market sentiment improves, or they may just deploy all their cash into all the cheap opportunities that are now available to them. You can see here that the skeptic is taking part in healthy skepticism.

他们明智地观察价格与价值的背离，然后基于对整体市场的理性认知做出决策。休谟教导我们要在开放怀疑与实践决策间取得平衡——这对投资者驾驭动荡市场至关重要。但即便保持这种平衡，我们仍面临另一挑战：即使证据变化仍固守从众心理。这正是伏尔泰的切入点，他帮助我们对抗投资中常见的顽固乐观与确认偏误。伏尔泰著作《老实人》作为文学经典，正是聚焦人类共有心理偏见的寓言。

They're intelligently viewing where price and value have disconnected, then they rationally make decisions based on their observation of the market as a whole. Hume teaches us to strike a balance between open minded doubt and practical decision making, a lesson that's just essential for investors navigating a very volatile market. Yet even with this balance, another challenge remains, which is our tendency to cling to conforming beliefs even when the evidence changes. This is where Voltaire steps in, helping us confront the stubborn optimism and confirmation bias that often appear in investing. So one of Voltaire's books, Candida, is a literary classic that is a tale focused on a key psychological bias that every human has.

这就是我们无法改变信念或决定，尽管有大量证据与最初假设相矛盾。埃弗雷特回到伏尔泰关于投资的核心观点，通过有效市场假说的视角进行讨论。信奉有效市场假说的人认为，投资无需任何努力，只需持有指数即可，因为人们无法战胜市场。有效市场假说为信奉者提供了某种保证。细想之下，这种保证对指数投资者而言其实相当令人安心。

And that's our inability to change our beliefs or decisions despite overwhelming evidence that contradicts our initial assumption. Everett circles back to Voltaire's key concepts regarding investing, discussing it through the lens of the efficient market hypothesis. Now believers in the efficient market hypothesis believe that zero work needs to be done in investing other than to just hold an index because people are incapable of beating the index. Efficient market hypothesis provides an assurance to believers in efficient market hypothesis. Now, when you think about it for a few moments, it's actually pretty comfortable assurance for index investors.

我对指数投资者完全没有意见，但声称不存在能战胜市场的投资者似乎不够诚实。在我看来，那些断言投资者无法战胜市场的人，要么是不愿花功夫去理解可能带来超额回报的众多企业，要么就是根本无力在市场中取得优势。我认为第一种情况关键在于诚实。许多投资者属于这类，这完全没问题——并非人人都喜欢研读财报和深入了解特定企业。

I'm totally fine with index investors, but to say that there aren't investors out there that can beat the index just seems dishonest. To me, the people saying investors can't beat the index are investors who either a, don't wish to put the work into attempting to understand numerous businesses that could provide superior returns compared to an index, or b, they're just incapable of having an edge in the market. And I think the first option really relies on honesty. Many investors fall into this category, which is perfectly fine. Not everyone enjoys reading financial statements and thoroughly learning about a specific business.

然而有些投资者显然无法战胜市场，最终自己变成了市场。我在一些基金身上看到这种现象：随着规模扩大，它们不再能跑赢市场，只因持仓过度分散，只是试图复制指数而非建立差异化优势。而差异化正是战胜市场的唯一途径。埃弗雷特写道，与相信世界由某种神圣天命支配不同，伏尔泰认为现代世界主要由人类构建的机构塑造，这些机构影响着历史进程。正是这些机构的本质结构，以及构成机构之人的善恶特质，最终决定了我们的生活形态。

However, you get some investors who clearly cannot beat the index and therefore become the index themselves over time. I've seen this with a few funds, whereas they scale, it is no longer outperform simply because they diversify their position so much and they just try to mirror an index rather than have any differentiating factors. And differentiating yourself is the only way to outperform the index. Everett writes, as opposed to believing that the world is governed by some divine providence that ensures everything happened for the best, Voltaire believes that the modern world is largely shaped by human built institutions that affect history's outcomes. It is the nature and structure of those institutions along with the good or bad traits of the people constituting those institutions that ultimately shape our lives.

伏尔泰认为股票市场就是极具影响力的机构之一。证券交易所既是邪恶与贪婪的强大象征，却也体现着诸多积极面。虽然有人因股市滋生的贪婪而视之为罪恶，但他们忽略了许多积极作用。证券交易所在诸多方面造福社会，我随便就能列举几点：

Now an institution that Voltaire believed was highly influential was the stock market. The stock exchange is a powerful symbol of both evil and greed, yet also embodies numerous positive aspects. While some people believe the stock market is evil due to the greed that it fosters, they overlook many of its positives. The stock exchange does many great things for society. A few things off the top of my head.

它们为企业提供融资渠道促进增长，通常意味着创造更多就业机会和更高税收；能让不同背景的人们产生联结；使普通人也能分享优秀企业的成长红利。最后这部分让我想起摩根·豪塞尔的《金钱心理学》——正如伏尔泰所写：'我们的良知无非由时代长矛、榜样示范以及自身禀性与反思共同锻造。'

They provide companies access to capital, which allows for growth, which often means more jobs available and higher tax dollars that are paid to the government. The stock exchange can bring people together from diverse backgrounds. It allows the average person to access the upside of owning a great business. The last part of Volterra I'll mention reminds me of Morgan Housel's The Psychology of Money. So Volterra writes, we have no other conscience than what is created in us by the spear of the age, by example and by our own disposition and reflections.

人生来并无原则，但具备接受原则的能力。其天性会倾向残忍或仁慈。因此我们的成长环境与所处社会机构，都深刻影响着我们在市场中的行为。这解释了为何具有赌博倾向的投资者会选择加杠杆快速追逐利润，或是为何对机构心存戒备者难以信任那些被其他人视为可靠的机构。

Man is born without principles. But with the faculty of receiving them, his natural disposition will incline him to either cruelty or kindness. So how we are raised and the social institutions that we're a part of all heavily influence how we may act in the market. This illustrates why some investors with a propensity for gambling might opt to use leverage and trade to maximize their profits just as quickly as possible. Or why people who maybe were raised to be distrustful of institutions may not believe in other institutions that are trustworthy to those who were maybe brought up to be trusting of those institutions.

这个概念令人着迷，它能让我们理解为何他人的投资行为在我们看来荒谬至极。认知这点有助于我们反思自身行为逻辑及潜在错误。休谟教导我们怀疑精神，伏尔泰则启示我们应将思考应用于现实世界。但现在我们要转向对投资者内心的审视——为此，本书作者选择了我最欣赏的历史人物之一：布莱兹·帕斯卡。

This is a fascinating concept because it can open our eyes to why others might act or invest in ways that just feel nonsensical to us. Knowing this allows us to be introspective about why we do things the way we do and why we may be making errors. Hume taught us about skepticism, and Voltaire showed us that we should think about how to apply our thinking to the outside world. But now we're gonna focus on looking inward at ourselves as investors. And to look inwards, the book's author chose one of my favorite characters from history, Blaise Pascal.

为什么他选择了帕斯卡？帕斯卡与皮埃尔·德·费马共同奠定了思考运气如何影响我们日常生活的基础。正如埃弗雷特所说，我们为投资成功与失败贡献了多少。人们很容易认为成功是技能的产物。但实际上，他们的成功很大程度上纯粹是盲目的运气。

Now why did he choose Pascal? Pascal, along with Pierre de Fermat, laid the groundwork for thinking about how luck influences our daily lives. Or as Everett puts it, how much we have contributed to our investment success and failures. It's easy for people to assume that their success was a product of skill. But in reality, much of their success is a product of pure blind luck.

帕斯卡通过数学向我们展示了原因。如果你想了解更多关于他的方程式，请查看WSB七零一，我在那里更详细地讨论了它。但帕斯卡鲜为人知的一个叙述，是我在读这本书之前从未听说过的，来自他写的一篇题为《论伟人境况》的文章。布莱兹·帕斯卡的父亲艾蒂安在1634年对法国政府债券下了一个有趣的金融赌注。这个赌注实际上带来了非常丰厚的回报。

Pascal helped show us why that was through mathematics. If you'd like to know more about his equation, please check out WSB seven zero one where I discuss it in much more detail. But one of Pascal's lesser known narratives, which I've never actually heard of before reading this book, was from an essay that he wrote titled Discourses on the Condition of the Great. Now Blaise Pascal's father's Etienne placed an interesting financial wager in 1634 on the French government bonds. And this bet actually paid off very handsomely.

在投资后的几年里，艾蒂安和他的家人能够依靠这笔投资的收入舒适地生活，享受着非常奢华的生活方式。但仅仅四年后，投资就恶化了，年轻的布莱兹·帕斯卡深受家庭财富损失的影响。债券的经历表明，投资，尤其是债券，从来都不是真正无风险的。法国首席大臣决定政府应该违约这些债券，以资助三十年战争。由于这次违约，债券的价值基本上被抹去了。

In the years following the investment Etienne and his family were able to live comfortably off the income from this investment, enjoying a very luxurious lifestyle. But only four years later, the investment would sour, and young Blaise Pascal was highly impacted by the loss of his family's fortune. What happened to the bonds shows that investments, and especially bonds, are never truly risk free. The chief minister of France decided that the government should actually default on these bonds to help fund the Thirty Years' War. And as a result of that default, the bond's value was essentially wiped out.

布莱兹明白，财富可以在瞬间改变，如果一个人的运气转变，简朴的生活可以轻易取代奢华的生活。埃弗雷特写道，他理解到，因为最微小的运气变化都可能给任何人带来不应有的伤害或利益，所有富人都生活在相当程度的条件性之下。这是一个引人入胜的见解，因为它向布莱兹展示了财富不仅是纯粹技能的产物，也是运气的产物。正如富人可以被视为有技能，穷人也可以被视为缺乏技能。然而，他的观点是，在这两种情况下，运气在这些结果中扮演了重要角色，而不仅仅是依赖技能。

Blaise learned that fortunes can change in an instant, and a life of modest means could easily replace a life of luxury if someone's luck were to shift. Everett writes, he understood that since the slightest change in fortune could lead to undeserved harms or benefits for anyone, all rich people exist under a significant degree of conditionality. Now this is a fascinating insight because it showed Blaise that wealth was not a product of pure skill, but also a product of luck. And just as a wealthy person could be seen as being skilled, the unwealthy could be seen as having a lack of skill. However, his point in both scenarios was that luck played a significant role in part in these outcomes rather than solely relying on skill.

帕斯卡写了一段短文，让读者想象自己处于这个场景中。你是一个贫穷的水手，发现你所乘的船在海中正在你脚下解体。你是船上唯一的幸存者，醒来时发现自己在一个遥远土地上未知岛屿的海岸上。当你吐出海水和沙子时，你看到一群岛民向你走来，看起来更像是仰慕你。人们向你赠送礼物和服务，这些只适合国王。

Pascal wrote a short passage in which she asked the readers to imagine themselves in this scenario. So you're a sailor of low means, and you find that the ship that you're on is falling apart underneath you in the sea. You are the lone survivor of your boat, and you find yourself awakening on the shore of an unknown island in a faraway land. As you spit out saltwater and sand, you spot a group of the island's inhabitants looking actually more like admiring you while they walk towards you. The people pepper you with gifts and services that are just fit for a king.

你得知他们的国王在你到达前不久失踪了，而你与国王非常相似。你聪明地推断出他们把你当作国王，仅仅因为你与他们真正的国王有着惊人的相似之处。但随着时间的推移，真相开始让你感到沉重。虽然王国里的每个人都相信你是他们的国王并这样对待你，但你知道自己只是一个没有头衔的穷人。当你反思时，你意识到你并不是真正的国王。

You learn that their king went missing shortly before you arrived and that you very closely resemble the king. You're smart enough to put two and two together and conclude they are treating you as their king strictly because you bear a remarkable appearance to their real king. But as time goes by, the truth begins to weigh on you. While everyone in the kingdom believes you to be their king and treats you as such, you know that you are just a man of lowly means and no titles. As you reflect, you realize that you are no true king.

你被这样对待的唯一原因纯粹是基于运气、合适的外貌、合适的时间和地点。这些因素都不在你的控制范围内，但你却过着你从未认为可能的生活。这个短篇故事是一个关于机会和环境角色的绝佳寓言，展示了它们如何快速轻易地塑造一个人的地位或财富。正如那个人的王位是机会而非功绩的产物，我们的地位，无论是在财富、出生还是社会地位上，往往也是完全超出我们控制的随机事件的结果。这一原则与巴菲特关于他出生在美国那个时代以及他觉得自己赢得了卵巢彩票的引言非常吻合。

The only reason that you're being treated as such is based purely on luck, proper appearance, proper time, and right place. None of these factors were within your control, yet you are living a life that you never deemed possible. This short story is an excellent parable about the role of chance and circumstance and how they can shape one's status or fortune quickly and easily. Just as the man's kingship was a product of chance rather than merit, our position, whether that be in wealth, birth, or social standing, are often also the result of random events that are entirely out of our control. This principle aligns well with Buffett's quote about being born in America at the time that he was and how he felt that he had won the ovarian lottery.

那么，我们如何将这一点与投资联系起来呢？通过帮助在我们的投资过程中注入一定程度的谦逊。通过承认投资中的许多成功是运气与技能的混合产物，既不因成功而得意忘形，也不因失败而一蹶不振。我经常思考自己在TIP发展道路上的运气成分——我只是非常幸运罢了。

Now, how do we circle this to investing? By helping to infuse a degree of humility into our investing process. By accepting that much of the success in investing is a product of a mixture of luck and skill, and not allowing ourselves to get too high on our successes or too low on our failures. I often think about luck in my own journey towards TIP. I'm just very fortunate.

我能否诚实地说，我从未想过自己会以谈论金融为职业出现在播客中？我很幸运发现了加密货币。幸运的是我在那次经历中惨败。我又幸运地重新发现了投资，是新冠疫情给了我这样的机会。我蒙恩发现了价值投资，而非采用某种杠杆策略。

Can I honestly say that there was never a point in my life where I thought I'd be on a podcast talking about finance as my vocation? I was fortunate to discover crypto. I got lucky that I failed miserably in that experience. I was again fortunate to rediscover investing, which COVID provided me with the opportunity to do. I was blessed to discover value investing rather than adopting some sort of leveraged approach.

我又幸运地成为了那种热爱学习的人，并已培养出通过写作教育他人的热情，这反过来让我自己更擅长学习。幸运的是我的搭档克莱读了我的一些文章并产生共鸣。幸运的是我被邀请加入TIP的一个社区，而斯蒂格收听了那次对话。我非常幸运地与TIP完美契合，因为我知道TIP只适合极少数人。如今即便在投资领域，我也怀疑自己的全部业绩是否只是运气使然。

I was again fortunate to be the type of person who loves to learn and already developed a passion for writing to help educate others, which in turned made me better at learning things myself. I got lucky that my cohost Clay read some of my writings and that it resonated with him. And I was lucky to be invited onto one of TIP's communities and that Stig listened to that chat. And I was very fortunate to be just a great fit with TIP as I know that TIP is a good fit for only a very small minority of people. Now even with investing, I wonder if my entire track record is just a matter of luck.

我常常是在正确的时间看到正确机会的合适人选。我相信投资技能能让机缘巧合发挥作用。若缺乏技能，你可能就关闭了这种机缘之门。所以当我怀疑自己的业绩是否纯属运气时，总会回到现实：真相可能介于运气与技能之间，而我对这种状态完全满意。关于运气需要注意的是，它可能被视为抽象概念。

I'm often the right person looking at the right opportunity at the right time. Now I believe that investing skill allows serendipity to play a part. And without skill, you're probably closing yourself off to that opportunity for serendipity. So when I wonder if my track record is pure luck or not, I'm always brought back to reality that the truth is probably somewhere between luck and skill, and I'm perfectly fine with that. Now the thing about luck is that it can be perceived as an abstract concept.

虽然我们知道它存在，但要明确衡量它非常棘手（若非不可能）。我们不能让抽象概念过度蒙蔽判断。为深入了解抽象概念，书中转向实用主义顶尖专家威廉·詹姆斯提出的观点——这个与我深度共鸣的哲学理念。实用主义吸引我，是因为它容易识别那些毫无实际用途的抽象理念，比如有效市场假说或资本资产定价模型就让我深有感触。

While we know it's there, it's pretty tricky, if not impossible, to measure it definitively. Now, we can't allow abstractions to cloud our judgment too much. To learn more about abstractions, the book turns to William James, one of the foremost experts on pragmatism, a philosophical concept that resonates very deeply with me. Pragmatism resonates with me because it's easy to take abstract ideas that just have no real life use. Things like the efficient market hypothesis or the capital allocation pricing model are two that really jump out to me.

虽然学术界欢迎这些理论，但真正为自己和合作伙伴赚钱的投资者往往回避它们。我宁愿与发现概念实用价值的实用主义者为伍。以下是詹姆斯在《真理的意义》中关于恶性抽象主义的论述：让我们如此描述这种使用概念的方式——我们通过孤立某个显著重要特征来理解具体情境，并将其归类。

While the academic community welcomes them, they're often shunned by investors who actually invest and make money for themselves and their partners. I'd rather align myself with the pragmatists who find use for concepts. Here's what James writes in one of his books, The Meaning of Truth regarding vicious abstractionism. Let me give the name of vicious abstractionism to a way of using concepts which may thus be described. We conceive a concrete situation by singling out some salient and important feature in it and classing it under that.

随后，我们非但没有用新认知方式带来的所有积极结果来丰富原有特征，反而私自运用概念，将原本丰富的现象简化为抽象名称的苍白暗示，视其为仅产生该概念的成因，仿佛概念抽象剥离的其他特征都被抹除。以此方式运作的抽象化不是思想的推进器，而是思想的制动器。它肢解事物、制造难题、创造不可能。他的核心观点是：抽象概念只有当我们记住它们是捷径而非全貌时，才是宝贵工具。但我们往往把抽象当作完整图景，这只会扭曲现实并限制理解。

Then instead of adding to its previous character all the positive consequences, which the new way of conceiving it may bring, we proceed to use our concepts privately, reducing the originally rich phenomenon to the naked suggestion of the name abstractly taken, treating it as a cause of nothing but that concept, and acting as if all other characters from out of which the concept is abstracted were expunged. Abstraction functioning in this way becomes a means to arrest far more than a means of advance in thought. It mutilates things, creates difficulties, and finds impossibilities. His primary point is that abstractions are valuable tools, but only when we remember that they're shortcuts and not the whole picture. Too often, we treat abstractions the entire picture, and this really just distorts our reality and limits our understanding.

说到恶性抽象主义，我想到一个例子就是将股票简单分为价值股和成长股的分类方式。许多投资者会把股票归入某一类别，完全忽略相关事实。假设一位价值投资者发现某公司市盈率只有5倍，将其归类为价值股，经过尽职调查后认为因其价格低廉仍是不错的投资。但若放眼全局，这位投资者可能忽略了更宏观的因素，比如该公司所处行业正在衰退、管理层能力不足、行业竞争地位薄弱、竞争优势欠缺、易受颠覆威胁，甚至可能存在资本配置历史极差等问题。

One example that comes to mind when thinking of vicious abstractionism is a categorization of value stocks versus growth stocks. Many investors will categorize stocks into one bucket or another, completely ignoring relevant facts. Let's say a value investor finds a business trading at a PE of five. He classifies it as a value stock, does his due diligence, and determines that it's still a decent investment because it's cheap. But if we zoom out, this investor might be ignoring the bigger picture of concepts such as, you know, the business's declining industry, the poor management of the business has, a weak competitive position inside of its industry, weak competitive advantages, the ability to be disrupted, and maybe even a very poor history of capital allocation.

从这个角度看，'价值'标签正在扭曲投资者的认知现实。它将诸多额外风险和复杂性掩盖在一个简单概念之下。虽然我认为简洁确实是投资的关键，但切忌过度简化投资这类复杂事物。继续讨论抽象概念，我们来看看模拟。尽管模拟本身也是抽象，但它却是投资中必不可少的工具，尤其在评估特定企业时。

Now in this sense, the label of value is just mutilating this investor's reality. It's hiding several additional risks and complexities behind a simple concept. While I think simplicity is definitely the key to investing, it's vital not to oversimplify things like investing. Now continuing with the subject of abstractions, we look at simulations. While simulations are abstractions, they are an essential tool to use in investing, especially when evaluating a specific business.

无论你认为企业叙事将如何展开，总有可能出现比你预期糟糕得多或好得多的模拟情景。从这个意义上说，模拟是帮助你理解投资风险程度的绝佳方式。埃弗雷特选择法国哲学家让·鲍德里亚来帮助我们理解模拟概念。埃弗雷特写道：当鲍德里亚论述模拟时，他指的是通过不同模态对现实世界过程和系统的再现。鲍德里亚的核心观点是，符号和象征对世界的影响远超其作为能指替代被指观念的基本使用价值。

No matter how you think a business's narrative will play out, there is always a simulation that could occur that is much worse or much better than what you expect. In this sense, simulations are a great way to help you understand how risky an investment might be. Now Everett chose the French philosopher Jean Baudrillard to help us understand the concept of simulation. Everett writes, when Baudrillard writes about simulation, he is referring to representations of a real world process and systems via different modalities. Now what Baudrillard was getting at was that signs and symbols impact the world beyond their basic use values of standing in as signifiers for a signified idea.

博佐亚德写道：在我看来，符号世界很快就脱离了实用范畴，进入相互对应的游戏状态。换句话说，这些符号和象征可以从代表某种底层观念转变为拥有自主生命。鲍德里亚将这种获得自主生命的符号称为拟像。拟像分为三个等级：第一级拟像是对底层对象或观念的明显仿造；

Bozoyard writes, as I saw it, in that the world of signs, they very quickly broke away from their use to enter into play in correspondence with one another. Or to put another way, these signs and symbols can shift from representing an underlying idea to taking a life of their own. Beaujolaire refers to these signs and symbols that take on a life of their own as simulacra. Now there are three orders of simulacra. There's first order simulacra, which is a clear counterfeit of the underlying object or idea that they reflect.

第二级拟像是模糊了反映与被反映物之间界限的再现；第三级拟像是完全独立于被反映底层对象或观念而存在的再现。感到困惑？我也是。让我们通过实例来厘清概念。埃弗雷特提供了股票市场中绝佳的拟像案例：

Then there's second order simulacra, which are representations which blur the boundaries between a reflection and what is being reflected. And there's third order simulacra, which are representations that take on an existence completely independent of the underlying object or idea that's being reflected. Confused? I was too, but let's just use an example here to help clarify things. So Everett provides some excellent examples of simulacra in public equity markets.

首先是追踪股票，这是第一级拟像的范例。追踪股票的价值与公司某个指定部门的表现挂钩，美国电话电报公司曾采用过这种形式。但持有追踪股票并不意味着你真正拥有该部门，它只是反映该部门的业绩表现。

So the first is a tracking stock, which is an example of a first order simulacra. So a tracking stock's value is tied to how well a specified division of a company performs. AT and T did this for a while. However, owning a tracking stock doesn't mean you actually own that particular division of the company. It simply reflects the performance of that division.

真实存在是部门的实际业务，而拟像则是追踪股票——它在股市中映射部门业绩，却非业务本身。其次是第二级拟像，普通股股权就是典型例子。当你持有公司普通股时，你获得所有权和投票权。但普通股与公司实体业务运营之间的现实差异却变得模糊不清。

The real thing is a division's actual business, and the simulacrum is a tracking stock, which mirrors the division's results in the stock market, but is not the business itself. Next is second order simulacra. We can look at common stock ownership as a great example here. When you own a business' common stock, you receive ownership and voting rights. However, there is a blurred reality regarding the differences between common stock and the company's physical business operations.

例如，一家公司可能在无稀释情况下每年利润增长15%。如果企业基本面与其股价之间不存在模糊地带，那么股价也应每年稳步上涨15%。然而平均股价波动剧烈，峰谷幅度约50%。这清楚表明普通股如何几乎始终与现实脱节。现在我们终于要谈到第三级拟像。

For instance, a company might increase their profits by 15% per year with no dilution. If there were no blurring between a business' fundamentals and its stock price, then the stock price should also steadily rise by exactly 15% per year. However, the average stock price fluctuates significantly with peak to trough range of about 50%. This clearly shows how a common stock can be disconnected from reality nearly all of the time. Now finally, we get to third order simulacra.

书中的例子是模因股狂热，我自己也想不出更好的案例。以游戏驿站这类模因股为例，它们完全脱离现实并自成体系。模因股的股价与现实彻底脱钩。若揭开游戏驿站案例的面纱，会发现大量幕后操作，包括蓄意破坏空头的企图。这场轧空助推了股价，却与企业基本面或价值几乎无关。

The example in the book was a meme stock mania, and I don't think I could come up with a better example myself. So in this case, a Memestock such as GameStock becomes completely disconnected from reality and takes on a life of its own. In the case of Memestocks, their share price become completely detached from reality. If you look behind the curtains of the GameStop example, numerous things were happening in the background, including attempts to sabotage short sellers intentionally. This short squeeze helped propel the share price, which had very little to do with the business's fundamentals or value.

埃弗雷特写道：鲍德里亚强调，符号（对我们而言是模因股）虽然曾被动反映某些底层对象或理念，但最终会脱离这些基础，在自主的虚拟领域中进行交换。鲍德里亚对比了他亲历的两次股灾——1929年大崩盘和1987年黑色星期一。1929年股灾时，股市与现实界限分明：经济崩溃导致公开股票受影响。

Everett writes, Beaudrillard is emphasizing that while signs, in our case meme stocks, may have previously served passive roles of reflecting certain underlying objects or ideas, they can ultimately detach from those underlying objects or ideas and go on to be exchanged among themselves in an independent virtual realm of their own. Baudrillard drew some notable contrast between two significant stock market crashes that he experienced. So there was the nineteen twenty nine crash and Black Monday in 1987. So in the nineteen twenty nine crash, there wasn't much of a blurred line between the stock market and reality. The economy crashed, and as a result, public stocks were affected.

但黑色星期一的诱因截然不同。1987年股市单日暴跌22.6%却无明显催化剂。读本章关于鲍德里亚的内容时，我不禁联想到乔治·索罗斯的反身性理论。所以看到埃桑·埃弗雷特在本章直接提及索罗斯并不意外。反身性理论认为股价不仅是被动反映。

But when you look at Black Monday, the events precipitating the crash were utterly different. In 1987, there was no obvious catalyst to justify a 22.6% drop in the stock market in a single day. While reading about Baltoyard in this chapter, I couldn't help but be reminded of George Soros' concept of reflexivity. So I wasn't really surprised to see that Ethan Everett directly mentioned Soros in the book in this exact chapter. The idea of reflexivity is that stock prices are not just passive reflections.

它们是动态要素，共同决定股价与被交易股票公司的命运。最简单的理解是：若市场对企业的认知积极，将极大改变其战略与结果。最直观的例证是资本成本——当股价低于内在价值时，增发股票融资就非良策；但若股价高估，则股权融资能创造巨大价值。

They are active ingredients in a process in which both the stock price and the fortunes of the company whose stocks are traded are determined. The simplest way to think about this is that if a business is perceived positively by the market, it can drastically change the strategy and outcome for that business. The easiest way to understand this is to think of a company's cost of capital. If a business is trading below its intrinsic value, then issuing shares of its stock to raise capital to grow is just not a good idea. But if a company's shares are above intrinsic value, then using the company's shares to develop is a great idea and produces quite a lot of value.

问题在于企业难以控制市场对其股票的认知。比如某公司被归类为AI概念股，任何关联都能助涨股价，从而为未来发展融资。当你能预判市场对企业认知时，反身性效应就显现威力。这些关于抽象与拟像的讨论，在思考外部世界运作时颇为有趣。

But the problem is that the company has limited control over what the stock market thinks about its shares. Sometimes a company will be categorized for instance as like say, let's say an AI stock. Therefore, any association can help the business increase its share price, which can aid in raising capital for future growth and expansion. So reflexivity works well when you have a view on the market's perception of a business. Now all this discussion on the abstract and simulations is interesting when thinking about things going on in the world that are specifically external.

但审视内心世界同样重要——毕竟这是我们主要的精神活动场域。为此我们要转向叔本华，这位我知之甚少的哲学家。他有个深刻观点：尽管我们总在脑海中规划人生、理想化自我，但现实通往重大成功的道路上总布满丑陋的坎坷。

However, it's also vital to consider what's going on inside of our own minds. This is where we spend, you know, most of our time after all. And to do this, we're going to turn to Arthur Schopenhauer, a philosopher that I admittedly know very little about. Schopenhauer has one compelling concept. As much as we spend time in our own heads planning out our lives and smoothly idealizing ourselves in this abstract, the fact of the matter is that reality contains all sorts of ugly bumps in the road on the path to significant success.

这个简单概念的核心要点在于，我们其实过着一种双重生活。第一种生活在现实世界中，第二种生活则在抽象层面。

The main takeaway from this simple concept is that we just live kind of a dual life. That first life is in the concrete or in reality, and the second life is in the abstract.

让我们稍作休息，听听今天赞助商的信息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

初创企业行动迅速。借助人工智能，它们的产品上市更快，更早吸引企业买家。但大额交易也带来更大的安全和合规要求。SOC2认证往往不够。恰当的安全措施能促成交易，也能毁掉交易。

Startups move fast. And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner. But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements. A SOC two isn't always enough. The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但哪位创始人或工程师能抽离出宝贵时间来处理这些？Vanta的人工智能和自动化技术让你能在几天内做好大额交易准备。Vanta持续监控合规状态，确保未来交易永不受阻。此外Vanta随你共同成长，全程提供所需支持。面对AI带来的法规和买家预期变化，Vanta精准掌握需求节点，为你打造最快最便捷的达标路径。

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company? Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days. And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked. Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

这就是为什么严肃的初创企业都选择Vanta早期布局安全。听众专属优惠：访问vanta.com/billionaires立减1000美元。商业的未来是什么？问九位专家会得到十种答案。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta. Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta dot com slash billionaires. That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off. What does the future hold for business? Ask nine experts and you'll get 10 answers.

牛市熊市循环往复。谁能发明水晶球？在此之前，已有超过42,000家企业通过Oracle的NetSuite实现业务未来保障——这款排名第一的AI云ERP系统，将财务、库存、人力资源整合到统一平台。通过一体化商业管理套件，获得单一数据源，赋予你快速决策所需的可视性与控制力。实时洞察与预测功能让你用可执行数据预见未来。

Bull market, bear market, it goes on and on. Can someone invent a crystal ball? Until then, over 42,000 businesses have future proofed their business with NetSuite by Oracle, the number one AI cloud ERP bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR into one fluid platform. With one unified business management suite, there's one source of truth giving you the visibility and control you need to make quick decisions. With real time insights and forecasting, you're peering into the future with actionable data.

如果当初我需要这类产品，这绝对是我的首选。无论你的公司年收入是百万级还是上亿级，NetSuite都能助你应对即时挑战，把握重大机遇。说到机遇，立即在netsuite.com/study下载《CFO人工智能与机器学习指南》。免费获取指南请访问netsuite.com/study。想象这个场景：午夜时分，你躺在床上浏览新发现的网站，终于将心仪商品加入购物车。

And if I had needed this product, it is exactly what I would use. Whether your company is earning millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you respond to immediate challenges and seize your biggest opportunities. Speaking of opportunity, download the CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at netsuite.com/study. The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study. Picture this, it's midnight, you're lying in bed scrolling through this new website you found and hitting the add to cart button on that item you've been looking for.

当你准备结账时，突然想起钱包还在客厅，却懒得下床去拿。正当你打算放弃购物车时，那个紫色购物按钮映入眼帘——Shopify已保存你所有的支付和配送信息，让你躺在床上就能省时完成交易。这就是Shopify的魅力所在，包括我在内的无数商家选择它是有原因的。从结账到创建专属店铺，Shopify让一切变得简单。

Once you're ready to check out, you remember that your wallet is in your living room and you don't want to get out of bed to go get it. Just as you're getting ready to abandon your cart, that's when you see it, that purple shop button. That shop button has all of your payment and shipping info saved, saving you time while in the comfort of your own bed. That's Shopify, and there's a reason so many businesses, including mine, sell with it. Because Shopify makes everything easier, from checkout to creating your own storefront.

Shopify是全球数百万企业的商业平台，支撑着美国10%的电商交易。从美泰、Gymshark这样的家喻户晓品牌，到我这样刚起步的商家都能使用。它提供全球转化率最高的结账系统。让Shopify助你将伟大商业构想变为现实，日后你定会感谢我。立即注册享受首月1美元试用，通过shopify.com/wsb开启销售之旅。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses all around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US. From household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands like mine that are still getting started. And Shopify gives you access to the best converting checkout on the planet. Turn your big business idea into reality with Shopify on your side and thank me later. Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

网址是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

好，回到节目。有些投资者将抽象思维类比为赌徒心态。虽然赌博在社会上通常带有负面色彩，但我不禁想到那些优秀投资者——他们大多有过赌博经历，并认为这段经历丰富了投资思维而非带来损害。我首先想到查理·芒格，不过书中提到大卫·艾因霍恩，就以他为例吧。

Alright. Back to the show. One way that some investors identify as a form of abstraction is as a gambler. While gambling generally has a negative connotation in society, I can't help but think about all the really good investors that I've heard of who have gambled at some point in their life and have pointed to that experience as something that enriched their investing process and didn't actually act as a detriment. Charlie Munger is the first person that comes to my mind, but the book mentions David Einhorn, so let's go with him.

艾因霍恩将扑克经验融入投资实践。比如他意识到：不是每手牌都该参与或取胜，有时明知牌面不佳也要出手，只因看准桌上某人的弱点。因此他投资时虽遵循基本原则，但遇到良机也会突破常规。在观察运气时，他深知好运总是来去无常。

Now Einhorn used his experience playing poker to help shape his reality as an investor. For instance, he realized in poker that you don't play or win every hand. And that you sometimes have to play hands that you might not think are the greatest simply because you have an edge over someone else at the table. So when he makes an investment, he tends to follow general principles, but he will go outside of these principles if he sees the right opportunity. Now when observing luck, Einhorn realizes that good luck comes and goes.

在扑克锦标赛中，完美操作也可能落败。因为扑克既是技巧较量也是运气游戏。长期来看利润终将流向技术最强者，但短期结果常由运气主导。这点在扑克中尤为明显——必须积累大量手牌才能体现真实水平。我个人曾持续玩线上扑克一年多。

In a poker tournament, you can play perfect poker and lose. This is because poker is a game of both skill and luck. The profits will always go to the people with most skill in the long term, but in the short term, luck guides a lot of the outcome. This is especially apparent in poker because you must play a significant amount of hands to see your actual results. Now I personally played online poker very regularly for a little over a year.

那年间我玩了20万手牌，追踪软件记录得清清楚楚。赌场现场扑克玩家每小时大约玩20手牌，要达到我的样本量需要约一万小时。这里的关键在于：样本规模至关重要。

And in that year, I played out 200,000 hands. I know this because I had tracking software. A poker player going to the casino and playing live games might play, you know, maybe 20 hands for an hour. So for them to obtain the same sample size that I did would take approximately ten thousand hours. Now the point here is that sample size matters.

如果我去赌场玩上几个小时，可能能玩上100手牌。在这样的小样本量下，任何事情都可能发生。我可能输光所有钱，也可能让资金翻倍。但当涉及到数十万手牌时，你就能清楚地看出自己是否具有优势。对于那些好奇的人，我认为自己并没有太大优势。

If I were to go to the casino and play for a few hours, I might get a 100 hands in. In that small sample size, anything can really happen. I can go broke or I can multiply my money. But But when you're talking about hundreds of thousands of hands, you can easily see if you have an edge or not. And to anyone wondering, I don't think I had much of an edge.

那么艾因霍恩是如何将这一原则运用到投资中的呢？这帮助他认识到现实中，他的股票选择不会总是如他所愿。与其在亏损时做出糟糕非理性的决定（就像扑克玩家说的'上头'），不如坦然接受这是投资游戏的一部分，然后继续前进。我喜欢这个案例研究，它让我们观察一位投资者，看看他们能将生活中的哪些抽象部分真正转化为现实并成功运用。这是一个很好的自我反思工具，可以帮助你发现自己在投资过程中的优势和劣势。

Now how did Einhorn use this principle for investing? To help him realize that in reality, his stock picks won't always go the way he wants them to. Instead of making poor and irrational decisions, going on tilt as poker players would say, when you lose, just accept that as part of the game of investing and carry on. I like this case study in looking at an investor and seeing what part of their life in the abstract they're able to really pull into reality and use successfully. It's a great tool to use on yourself to reflect on where you observe strength and weakness in your own investing process.

我最喜欢的方式是简单回顾你做过的最成功和最失败的投资。然后花些时间思考：当初为什么要做这些投资？从中汲取智慧，看看如何能扩大成功，同时改进或避免错误。在这个案例中，我们想通过反思我们的身份认同，来判断这些认同是在帮助还是阻碍我们在投资和生活中的成功。我在研究世界顶级投资者时发现一个有趣现象：许多成功投资者的婚姻生活或与子女的关系都非常糟糕。这显然会给他们带来很大困扰，严重影响他们的幸福水平。

My favorite way of doing this is to simply look at investments that you've made that have been the most and least successful. Then spend some time thinking about them, why you made them in the first place, then draw wisdom as to how you can double down on your successes while improving or avoiding on your mistakes. In this case, we wanna reflect on our identities to figure out if the identities that we are aligning ourselves with are helping or detracting from our success in investing and in life. One interesting thing that I learned while researching the world's best investors was just how many of the successful investors have had very rocky marital lives or relationships with their children. And this can obviously wear on them very much and massively affect their levels of happiness.

重要的是要记住，在投资领域想要长期保持成功记录而不变得富有几乎是不可能的。但即便是不断增长的财富也无法修复与所爱之人的糟糕关系。从这个意义上说，金钱并不总能买到幸福，尽管普遍认为金钱是解决许多人问题的良方。这篇文章的创作者米歇尔·德·蒙田曾谈到财富给他带来的问题多于解决方案。他得出结论：财富越多，他就越担心诸如盗窃、身边人的信任以及失去财富的恐惧等问题。

It's important to remember that it's nearly impossible to have a long successful track record in investing and not become wealthy. But even swelling wealth cannot fix poor relationships with loved ones. So in that sense, money cannot always buy happiness, despite the widespread belief that money is the solution to many people's problems. The creator of the essay itself, Michel de Montagne, once spoke about how wealth created more problems and solutions for him. He concluded that the more wealth he had, the more anxious that he became about things like theft, trust of those around him, and the fear of losing it.

他觉得拥有金钱带来的麻烦比赚钱时更多。蒙田是在深入思考他与金钱的关系及其对自己的影响后得出这个结论的。有趣的是，他那个时代有些人认为思考自己是虚荣且无益的。虽然蒙田同意纯粹为了自我吹嘘和夸大而思考自己确实是虚荣无益的，但你不应忽视自我反思的积极方面。埃弗雷特写道：'如果我们从'我们常常对自己是个谜'这个角度出发，需要花时间自我反思来更好地了解自己，我们就能显著改善人类处境。'

He felt that owning money brought just more troubles than earning it. Now Montagna came to this conclusion while thinking deeply about his relationships with money and how it affected him. Interestingly, there were some people in his time that thought that thinking of yourself was vain and unproductive. And while Montagna agreed that thinking of yourself solely as self adulation and aggrandizement was indeed vain and unproductive, you shouldn't overlook the positive aspects of self reflection. Everett writes, If we go about it from the perspective that we are often an enigma to ourselves and need to spend time in self reflection to get to know ourselves better, we can significantly improve our human condition.

与我共同主持人威廉·格林所著《更富有、更智慧、更快乐》一书中的许多投资者不同，那些不开心的超级富豪们没有投资于那些无论银行账户有多少个零都无法被剥夺的无形资产。蒙田认为真正的财富不仅仅是拥有有形财产，而是存在于偶然世界之外的财富，不会因命运的得失而受到影响。这就是为什么对你所拥有的感到真正满足是衡量幸福的好标准。如果你对自己拥有的感到真正满足，那么即使没有任何物质财富，你仍可以是世界上最富有的人。这是个有趣的概念，可能很难完全诚实地实现，但我认为这是个值得追求的好目标。

Where many of the investors from my co host William Green's book, Richer, Wiser, Happier defer from some of the unhappy ultra rich is that they invested into intangibles that could never be stripped away from them regardless of the number of zeros that they had in their bank accounts. Montagne believed that true wealth wasn't just owning tangible possessions, but rather wealth that existed outside of the world of contingency, which cannot be affected by gains or losses in fortune. This is why being truly happy with what you have is such a good measurement of happiness. If you are genuinely content with what you have, then you can have no material goods and still be the wealthiest person in the world. It's an interesting notion and probably very difficult to achieve with complete honesty, but I think it's a good goal to strive for.

观察你所做的事情是否让你快乐的一个绝妙方法，就是回答克尔凯郭尔提出的一个引人深思的问题：'你会花钱做你今天做的事情吗？'这是个有趣的问题，因为我认为没多少人曾问过自己这个问题。如果他们问了，你觉得会有多大比例的人会回答'会'？我猜大概5%到10%。

One incredible way of observing if what you do makes you happy is to just answer a fascinating question that was posed by Kierkegaard. And that is, would you pay to do what you do today? It's an interesting question because I don't think that many people have ever posed it to themselves. And if they did, what percentage of people do you think would say yes? My guess, maybe five to 10%.

在我们深入探讨之前，让我们更详细地了解一下克尔凯郭尔。克尔凯郭尔的一生相当精彩，既经历过财富积累，也遭遇过投资失败。书中描述了他面临的第一个财务困境，这发生在他上大学期间。在大学时，克尔凯郭尔获得了一笔可自由支配的现金。

Before we dive more into that, let's cover Kierkegaard in some more detail. Now, Kierkegaard lived a pretty interesting life and experienced wealth and money losing ventures. The book outlines one of his first financial dilemmas. This occurred when he went to university. So while in university, Kierkegaard was given an allotment of cash to use at his own discretion.

结果他把大部分钱都花在了奢侈品上。但他对奢侈品的痴迷程度远超预算，最终不得不靠借贷来维持开销。到1837年时，他已陷入严重的财务危机。由于知道父亲有能力帮他还清债务，他恳求父亲出手相救。然而不到一年后，父亲去世，给他留下了一笔巨额遗产。

He ended up spending a significant amount of that cash on luxuries. But his love of luxuries was actually larger than the amount of money that was allotted to him and ended up having to, dip into credit to cover his costs. By 1837, he found himself in an absolute financial mess. Since he knew his father had the money to help him erase his debts, he begged him to help bail him out. Less than a year later, his father ended up passing away leaving Sorin a very large inheritance.

但事实上，在1838年父亲去世到1841年他获得神学硕士学位期间，他的心态发生了转变。虽然他有条件继续过奢侈生活，但他发现社会对金钱的病态迷恋令人不安，因此选择置身事外。在《两个时代》一书中他指出，金钱本质上是欲望的象征，却只是空洞的符号。最终克尔凯郭尔将余生用于自费出版书籍（其中多数销量惨淡）和反教会小册子，去世时几乎一无所有。

But it actually appears that between the death of his father in 1838 and the time that he graduated with a master's degree in theology in 1841, that something shifted in him. He now had the means to continue living a life of luxury if he wanted, but he felt that the society around him had an alarming fascination with money and he didn't want to take part. So in his book two Ages, The Age of Revolution and the Present Age, he notes ultimately the object of desire is money, but it is in fact token money, an empty abstraction. Ultimately, Kierkegaard spent the rest of his life funding the printing of his books, many of which did not sell well. He also self published pamphlets against the church, and he pretty much died without anything to speak of.

让我们回到几分钟前提出的问题。克尔凯郭尔认为将追逐金钱本身作为目标是种危险观念。我认为Ethan非常精妙地将此与当代市场投资者联系起来——Ethan写道，驱动这些投资者的并非对金钱的追求，而是构建投资理论并见证其实现的过程。读到这段话时，我不禁陷入思考。

But let's go over the initial question that I posed a few moments ago here. Kierkegaard felt that the pursuit of money as a goal itself is a very exciting concept. And I think Ethan did an exceptional job connecting this to investors in today's markets. So Ethan writes, essentially, it is these investors love for the process of forming investment theses and watching those investment theses play out that drive them, not the pursuit of money itself. As soon as I read this, it just kinda got me thinking.

Everett将投资热情比作国际象棋。象棋大师精进棋艺并非为了赚钱，而是出于对象棋本身的热爱，以及通过象棋证明自己世界级智谋的渴望。这让我开始审视自己：我始终痴迷电子游戏，

Everett connects the love of investing to a game like chess. So chess grandmasters don't want to get good at chess because they are gonna make a lot of money from it. They do it because they just love chess, and they love the ability to use chess as a vessel for proving their intellectual and strategic abilities at a world class level. Then I examine myself. So I've always loved video games.

这辈子最爱的两款游戏，其一是美式橄榄球游戏《麦登橄榄球》，其二是即时战略游戏《星际争霸》。我在这两款游戏上投入了难以启齿的数千小时，吸引我的正是其中蕴含的高阶策略性——需要全神贯注才能执行战术。

And through my life, there are probably two games I think I've loved the most. So the first was Madden, a game based on American football, and the second was Starcraft, a real time strategy game. I spent many, many hours playing these games, so many that it's probably embarrassing to even discuss it with you today. But I played those games because there was a high degree of strategy, and my brain had to be operating at a very high degree to execute my strategy. That was my big draw.

我从未想过靠游戏赚钱也确实没赚到，纯粹是为热爱而玩。现在想来，投资亦是如此。我不太在意他人操作，只专注做到自己的最好水平。如果能做得不错，赚钱作为副产品固然好，但通过投资获得智力层面的胜利验证，才是最大的奖赏。

I never wanted to make money from them and I never did, but I played purely for love of the game. Now when I reflected a little bit about investing, it's really not that different. I don't worry much about what other people are doing. I mostly just focus on if I'm doing the best possible job that I can do, and if it's a decent job, the secondary benefits of making money is a very good second prize. But the verification that I achieve a great intellectual victory is probably the biggest prize that I get from investing.

克尔凯郭尔曾说，在古希腊，人们必须花钱才能担任地方法官。同样地，克尔凯郭尔本人也支付了巨额费用只为成为作家。他自费写作，即便未能获得经济回报，仅仅因为他热爱写作并认为自己的思想值得与世界分享。现在回到问题本身。鉴于本播客大多数听众都是投资者，问题来了：你愿意自掏腰包继续在市场中投资吗？

Kierkegaard said that in ancient Greece, people had to pay to serve as a magistrate. By the same token, Kierkegaard did pay significant sums just to be an author. He spent money to do it, and even when he wasn't successful in making any money simply because he loved writing and he felt his concepts were worth sharing with the world. Now I get back to the question. And since most people listening to this podcast are investors, the question stands, would you pay to continue investing your own money in the market?

由于我们的听众群体可能无法代表大众——我想许多听众会热情地回答'愿意'，或许我提问的对象本就不对。那么让我们听听伊桑·埃弗雷特对专业投资者的描述。对华尔街大多数人而言，工作中或许有些许趣味，但现实是他们唯一重要的目标就是金钱。若没有金钱激励，他们根本不会靠近华尔街。

Since our audience is probably not a good representation of the overall population as many of our listeners, I think, would enthusiastically reply yes to this question. Maybe I'm asking the wrong cohort of people. So let's let Ethan Everett describe the answer for professional investors. For most people in Wall Street, there can be minor interesting parts in the work, but the reality is that their only major goal is money as an object. Thus, they would be nowhere near Wall Street without the monetary incentive.

回顾我的投资历程，事实上所有环节都是自费完成的。我自掏腰包支付的所有订阅费、书籍、证券账户、文章、新闻、软件服务以及投入的时间，只为寻找那些我认为具有高上涨空间、有限下跌风险并能带来智力满足感的投资理念。然后我便静观其变。有时我会判断错误并因此受伤，但更多时候我是正确的并获得了回报。投资的难点在于，正确判断常被等同于赚钱。

When I think of my own investing journey, there are many parts of my trip as a matter of fact, all of it that have been paid by myself. All the subscriptions I've paid for, the books, the sub sec accounts, articles, news, software services, and and time spent have been paid by me out of pocket just so I could find interesting investing ideas that I thought offered significant upside, limited downside, and intellectual satisfaction. Then I just have sat back and watched to see what happens. Sometimes I'm wrong and it hurts, but more often than not, I'm right and have been rewarded. The hard part about investing is that being right is often equated with making money.

长期来看我认同这个观点。我敢说找不到这样的企业：过去十年营收年均增长10%、每股收益超15%、零负债、管理极佳、处于垄断地位且未来十年前景明朗，而股价却未能至少匹配每股收益的增长。但短期来看情况就模糊多了。1900年时，塞缪尔·兰利曾被公认是最有可能造出动力飞机的人选。兰利是著名科学家。

And in the long run, I agree with that statement. I challenge you to find a business that has, let's say, over the past decade, grown revenue by 10% per annum, per share profits over 15%, has no debt, is incredibly well managed, is a monopoly, and easily has another decade to go where the stock price hasn't at least matched that growth in EPS. Put in the short term, things are a little bit murkier. In 1900, Samuel Langley was seen as the man most would have bet on to create the first powered airplane. Langley was a well known scientist.

他拥有美国政府资助、顶级人脉、最聪明的工程师团队，以及全国媒体对其使命的广泛报道带来的支持。1903年，兰利的'航空站号'飞机在波托马克河畔盛大亮相，媒体云集。

He had funding from the US government. He had the best connections. He had access to the most intelligent engineers. And he had support of the nation due to the media coverage that was surrounding his mission. By 1903, Langley's aircraft, the Aerodrome, made its public debut with great fanfare and a significant media presence from the Potomac River.

它两次起飞，却都立即栽入河中。媒体大肆嘲讽，兰利当场放弃了动力飞机的研制。而同一年，没有正规教育背景、资金支持和声望的自行车技工奥维尔与威尔伯·莱特兄弟，却成功实现了首次飞行。这是个迭代过程——每次失败都让他们离成功更近一步。

It took off twice, and each time, it immediately nosedived into the river. The media heavily mocked him, and he quit trying to make a powered airplane just then and there. Now in the same year, Orville and Wilbur Wright, two bike mechanics with no formal education, no funding, and no prestige launched their first successful flight. The process was iterative. With each failure, they got one step closer to success.

当他们首次成功飞行时，几乎无人注意。没有记者蜂拥而至，没有盛大场面，也没有即时回报。伟大的斯多葛学派哲学家塞内加说过我最喜欢的一句话：时间揭示真理。这直接呼应了人类首次成功飞行的故事。有时成功几乎难以辨认，而那些看似明显的胜利反而成了败笔。

And when they successfully launched their first flight, barely anybody noticed. They weren't inundated with reporters, there was no fanfare, and there was no instantaneous reward to be found. The great stoic philosopher Seneca said one of my favorite quotes of all time, time reveals truth. And this applies directly to the story about the first successful flight. Sometimes the successes are nearly impossible to identify, and obvious wins are the ones that become the duds.

唯有时间能揭示真相。在投资领域，当面对图表、闪烁的灯光、应用程序和警报这些让我们专注于短期的事物时，长期专注变得异常困难。然而人们依然坚信，仅通过查看股票图表和画几条线就能找到股票点子，从而在市场中获利。阿尔贝·加缪可以帮助我们解答这个问题：为何我们总在根本不存在意义和模式的领域里徒劳追寻。加缪是1957年诺贝尔文学奖得主。

Only time will reveal the truth. Now in investing, it's hard to focus in the long term when there are things like charts, flashing lights, apps, and alerts that keep us focused on the short term. Yet humans continue to believe that they can make money in the markets by finding stock ideas, solely by looking at stock charts and drawing a few lines. Now Albert Camus can help us answer this question of why we seek meaning and patterns in areas where they just don't really exist. Camus was a Nobel Prize winner in literature in 1957.

他的人生轨迹与我们研究过的许多哲学家相似，既经历过贫困也拥有过财富。加缪最重要的哲学贡献之一是'荒诞主义'。这种哲学强调要认识到生活中的随机性，以及在一个本质无意义的世界里，接纳我们追寻意义的徒劳挣扎所带来的积极影响。关键在于，为周遭世界寻找意义是人类的天性，但我们所发现的意义往往纯属虚幻。

He lived a life similar to many of the philosophers that we've covered of both being part of poverty and wealth. One of Camus' best philosophical contributions was something called absurdism. So this philosophy stresses the importance of recognizing the randomness in our lives, as well as the positive effects of embracing the absurdity of our struggle to find meaning in an inherently meaningless world. The point is that it's human nature to search for meaning in the world around us. But often, the meaning that we find is purely illusory.

就像股票图表。如果你看着图表上的波动，仅凭当前走势就断定线条会持续上涨，坦白说，你是在无意义的模式中强行寻找意义。这对投资者是深刻的一课。即便像我这样基于基本面分析的投资者，也可能错误地将某些特定模式归因于自己判断的正确或错误。今天我与TIP智囊团进行了精彩讨论，有位成员提到我（凯尔）有绝不购买中国股票的原则。

Like a stock chart. If you look at wiggles on a stock chart and conclude that as a result of how that chart looks now, the lines are just gonna keep going up, you're looking for meaning in, frankly, a meaningless pattern. This is a potent lesson for investors. Even if you are a fundamentals based investor like me, there are specific patterns that I may erroneously conclude have led me to be right or to be wrong. I had a great discussion today with the TIP mastermind community where one member brought up that I, Kyle, have a rule against buying Chinese equities.

完全正确。他指出我不愿买入中国股票，可能是因为在中国投资上亏损过，而非分析能力的问题。他提出或许我正在犯'结果导向'的错误，将投资失利误认为是分析失误。这个观点相当精辟。我指出有趣的是，我所有实际卖出的中国股票，过去几年价格其实都上涨了。

Completely true. He pointed out that my reluctance to buy Chinese stocks might be the result of losing money on my Chinese investments rather than errors on my analytical abilities. He pointed out that perhaps I was making an error based on resulting and confusing it for mistakes on my analysis. And this is actually a pretty excellent point. I pointed out that funny enough, all the stocks that I had actually sold in China have actually gone up in price over the past few years.

但我并未花太多时间研究这些企业的基本面。或许我的结论是基于某些根本不存在的模式，从而得出非理性的判断。于是我更仔细审视了在中国的投资组合——阿里巴巴、腾讯和趣店。实际上这些企业的基本面已略有改善。虽然我对中国股票的投资决策并非最糟糕的，但可能只是时机把握不当。

But I haven't spent too much time looking at the fundamentals of those businesses. Perhaps my conclusion was based on me looking at specific patterns that didn't actually exist to come to an irrational conclusion. So I looked a little more closely at the basket of bets I made in China, which were on Alibaba, Tencent, and Qfin. And the business have actually improved a little bit on fundamentals. So while I may not have made the worst possible decisions with these Chinese bets, perhaps it was all just a matter of bad timing.

如果我能等到这些企业大幅折价时再买入，或许会对中国股票有完全不同的看法。这正是加缪荒诞主义思想的精髓所在——你要从真正有意义的信息中汲取教训，而忽略其余杂音。试想现在是2008年，你是亿万富翁慈善家肯·朗格尼，曾在家得宝初创时期提供资金支持。那个烦人的伯尼·麦道夫不断试图联系你，说有笔有趣的生意要约你面谈。

Had I waited for these businesses to be selling at heavy discounts before buying them, I might have had a completely different outlook on Chinese equities. This is why Caymus' focus on absurdism is just so crucial. You want to take lessons from information that actually provides meaning and to skip the rest. Now imagine it's 2008 and you're Ken Langone, the billionaire philanthropist who helped fund Home Depot in its early days. This annoying guy Bernie Madoff just keeps trying to get ahold of you and he says that he wants to meet and he has an interesting business proposition for you.

你赴约了。会上麦道夫展示了19页的推介文件。他告诉你这笔交易不向现有客户开放。你困惑地询问原因，麦道夫回答说这笔交易的规模不足以惠及所有现有客户，所以只提供给你。

You take the meeting. At the meeting, Madoff delivers a 19 page pitch deck. He tells you that he's not offering this deal to his current clients. Puzzled, you ask why Madoff is only offering you this deal. And Madoff responds that the deal isn't big enough to give to all of his existing clients, So he's only offering it to you.

你的直觉告诉你这笔交易不对劲。你丰富的商业经验告诉你，应该优先与那些重视现有合作关系的人做生意。如果这个叫麦道夫的家伙真有什么好项目，没道理不先给自己的老投资人——那些他曾合作过并据说创造了奇迹的人——而是找个陌生人。你选择放弃。两周后，伯尼·麦道夫数十亿美元的庞氏骗局曝光了。

Your gut tells you that this deal is just no good. Your positive business experience in life tell you that you wanna do business with people who should prioritize their current relationships. If this Madoff fellow has a great deal, it just makes no sense to offer it to a stranger rather than to his own investors, whom he has worked with previously and whom he reportedly has done absolute miracles for. You take a pass. Two weeks later, Bernie Madoff's multibillion dollar Ponzi scheme was discovered.

这个故事告诉我们，衡量一笔交易不仅要看双方得失，还要考虑对隐性参与方的影响。兰格尼拒绝这笔交易，仅仅因为他不愿与一个不愿优先考虑自己投资人却向陌生人兜售生意的人合作。为了和陌生人做交易而坑害熟人，这不是兰格尼的经商之道。他是个重视人际关系的人。哲学家马丁·布伯有个概念完美解释了兰格尼对此交易的深刻疑虑。

What the story shows us is that in a deal, it matters not what both sides are getting out of it, but also how it's affecting hidden parties. In this case, Langone didn't like the deal simply because he didn't wanna do business with someone who wouldn't bring a cinch of a deal to his own investors before presenting it to a stranger. Screwing over the people that you do know to do a deal with a stranger just wasn't how Langone did business. He was a people person who highly valued relationships. Now a philosopher named Martin Buber has a concept that perfectly explains Langone's deeply held skepticism on this deal.

布伯的概念非常深奥，叫做'我-你'关系，与之相对的是'我-它'关系。他的哲学基于我们与世界及他人的互动方式。在'我-它'关系中，我们将他人或事物视为可被利用、分析或操控的客体。这本身并无道德问题，只是缺乏人情味。比如评估企业时，我们可能只盯着财务报表决定是否投资。

Buber's concept is highly esoteric, so the name of it is I you and its counterpart is I it. Buber's philosophy is based on how we relate to the world and to others. So in an I it relationship, we treat the other person or thing as merely an object, something that can be used, analyzed, or acted upon. There isn't anything inherently immoral or wrong about it, it's just very impersonal. When looking at a business, we might focus just on the financial statements to decide whether we want to invest in it.

与'我-它'相对的是'我-你'关系。这里，我们将对方视为完整的存在而非客体。我们以真诚、临在和尊重与之互动。这两种关系的差异会改变我们对待他人的方式，也改变我们自身的本质。因为'我-它'中的'我'与'我-你'中的'我'截然不同——每次与世界互动时，我们都在选择将他人看作无内在价值的工具，还是具有独立意义的主体。

The opposite of an I it relationship is an I you relationship. Here, the person is viewed as a whole, being rather than an object. We want to engage with them authentically, fully recognizing them with presence and respect. Now the difference between the two alters how we treat others and alters who we truly are. Because the I in I it is much different than the I in I you, every moment that we interact with the world, we choose to see others as objects with no inherent value or as fellow subjects with their own significance and meaning.

伯尼·麦道夫用'我-它'视角看待兰格尼，视其为可能榨取现金的对象——一个大概率再也见不到这笔钱的人。而兰格尼采取'我-你'视角：虽然交易本身不错，但麦道夫优先考虑陌生人的做法让他不适。这让我想起巴菲特的名言：'企业会吸引他们应得的股东'。

Bernie Madoff saw Langone as an object using an I it view. He was someone who could potentially be just a source of cash and someone who probably would never even see that money again. Langone took an IU view. He considered the deal good, but since Madoff had others in his web who should have been prioritized over Langone, it just didn't sit well with Langone. For me, the biggest lesson here reminds me of the great buffet quote, which is companies get the shareholders that they deserve.

如果把股东当作随时可提款的ATM，企业很难培养忠诚的股东群体。但若将股东视为真正的合作伙伴，保持诚实透明并利益一致，就更可能获得风雨同舟的长期股东。强大的股东基础会带来切实好处：股价坚挺时融资更轻松，市场动荡时股价更具韧性，使企业能逆周期操作从而提升价值。

If a company treats its shareholders as a source of cash to be tapped whenever needed, chances are it's just not gonna have a very loyal shareholder base. If instead you treat your shareholders like true partners, are honest and transparent with them, and have aligned incentives, you're likely to have shareholders who are gonna stick with the business through thick and thin. And when you have a strong shareholder base, there's tangible benefits to it. Companies will find it much easier to secure funding when their share price is stronger. And when the markets tumble, they're likely to have a more resilient share price allowing them to act countercyclically, which further improves the value of the business.

埃弗雷特选择的最后一位投资者是我的最爱——李小龙。少年时代的我对他无比痴迷，收藏了他所有电影的DVD反复观看。当时主要着迷于他在银幕上的英姿和我想模仿的体格，但我也爱在YouTube上听他的访谈。

The final investor that Everett chose is my personal favorite, and that man is Bruce Lee. As a teenager growing up, I was obsessed with Bruce Lee. I had all of his films on DVD, and I watched them on repeat. At that time, I was primarily interested in Bruce Lee because he was great in his movies and had a physique that I wanted to emulate. But I also enjoyed listening to him on YouTube.

他接受采访时表现极佳，几乎每次访谈都会演变成将生活与武术相联系的哲学课。最让我产生共鸣的两句话是：第一，清空你的思想。像水一样无形无相。将水倒入杯中，它便成为杯的形状；倒入瓶中，便成为瓶的形状。

He gave great interviews, and nearly all of them turned into some sort of philosophical lesson connecting life with martial arts. The two quotes that he said that have always resonated with me are one, empty your mind. Be formless, shapeless, like water. You put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put it into a bottle, it becomes the bottle.

要像水一样，我的朋友。第二，吸收有用的，摒弃无用的，再加入你独有的东西。第一句话强调的是适应性与灵活性，避免僵化。请允许我先将其与我的爱好柔术联系起来，再谈及投资。每当我回顾初学柔术时，身体总是异常僵硬。

Be water, my friend. And two, absorb what is useful, discard what is not, add what is uniquely your own. So the first quote emphasizes adaptability and flexibility while avoiding rigidity. If I may quickly relate this to one of my passions in life, jiu jitsu, before relating it to investing. So whenever I look back to when I was brand new to jiu jitsu, there was a high degree of rigidity in my body when I would do jiu jitsu.

这是因为在体育运动中缺乏技巧时，最容易依赖的就是体能和力量。新手总以为能用蛮力解决一切。这有两大弊端：首先，正确的技巧能轻易战胜力量。这就是为什么体重百磅的训练有素女孩能轻松折断一百八十磅男性健美者的手臂。

And that's because when you lack skills in a physical sport, the easiest thing to rely on is your athleticism and strength. So novices think that they could just muscle their way out of everything. This has two big downsides. The first is that proper technique easily trumps strength. This is why a decently trained hundred pound girl can easily break a male bodybuilder's arm who might weigh, you know, a hundred and eighty pounds.

其次，若仅靠肌肉防御和移动，很快就会精疲力竭。当你越来越依赖技巧和策略时，就会神奇地减少疲劳。投资中也容易固守策略。我们常自诩为价值投资者，试图效仿本杰明·格雷厄姆，却忘了世界早已今非昔比。

Second, when you rely solely on your muscles to defend yourself and move, you very quickly get exhausted. Once you can rely more and more on your skill set and strategy, you magically become less tired. In investing, it's easy to get rigid in your strategy. We can easily label ourselves as value investors trying to emulate someone like Ben Graham. And in that process, we forget that the world has changed a lot since his day.

僵化地只关注有形资产企业，认定无形资产毫无价值，会使投资者错失大量市场机遇。当然，投资中很多方面都可能陷入僵化。比如我个人对技术分析相当反感，因加密货币交易的惨痛经历让我不愿自称交易员。但我仍允许自己偶尔查看图表，将其作为信息源来辅助对目标企业的报价。尽管常担心报价无法成交，但市场屡屡压低我心仪企业的股价，以及技术分析帮我以优异价格成交的经历，总让我惊喜。

Rigidly focusing on businesses with assets and assuming intangibles are worth nothing, forces investors to overlook large areas of the market that are ripe with opportunity. Of course, you can be rigid in many areas of investing. I, for one, have a pretty significant dislike for technical analysis as I never wanted to identify as a trader after my abysmal experiences trading crypto. But I allow myself to look at charts now and then just to use them as a source of information to help place bids on businesses that I may wanna add to my portfolio. And even though I fear that those bids will never get filled, I'm always pleasantly surprised by how often the market will bid down a business that I really like and by how technical analysis helped me land shares at an excellent price.

第二句话堪称精辟。它为你从事任何活动提供了绝佳视角。本节目听众多是追求进步之人，而'取其精华去其糟粕'正是个简单而伟大的学习框架——这本质上就是学习的真谛。

Now the second quote here is excellent. It's a great way to look at how you do anything. I think most listeners of the show are people who are trying to improve. And the simple notion of absorbing what is useful while discarding the rest is just a great and simple framework. That is basically what learning is.

你发现适合自己的方法，将其融入体系；当某些方法不奏效时便将其抛弃。如此周而复始。这句话最让我着迷的是最后部分：'加入你独有的东西'——这正是个人偏好与创造力大显身手之处。

You find things that work for you, adapt them into your framework, and when things don't work out, you throw them out. Then rinse and repeat. It's actually the last part of this quote that fascinates me the most. Add what is uniquely your own. This is where your own preferences and creativity come in handy.

你可以选择是否与某些事物产生共鸣，然后将其加入或移出你的策略。在体育界，像拉马尔·杰克逊这样的四分卫不仅以出色的传球闻名，还因其双腿赋予的天赋而成为场上极具爆发力的跑动球员。在投资领域，你可以自主选择投资标的——股票、债券、房地产、加密货币、另类投资等等。你可以考量头寸规模、持有周期、组合换手率、投资期限偏好（短期/中期/长期）、行业选择、市值区间偏好（四分位/十分位）、企业与管理层质量，以及无数其他个性化变量。这里的可能性清单几乎是无穷无尽的。

You get to choose whether you resonate with something, then add or subtract it from your strategy. In sports, a quarterback like Lamar Jackson is known not only as a great passer, but also as a player who is absolutely electric on the ground, thanks to the physical gifts that he has with his legs. In investing, you can pick and choose, you know, what you want to invest in, stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto, alternatives, etcetera. You can look at your position sizing, your holding periods, how much you turn over your portfolio, whether to be more short, medium, long term oriented, what kind of industries you want to invest in, what market cap quartiles or deciles you prefer, the quality of the business and the manager, and just so many more other preferences and variables. The list here is really endless.

如果你深入了解一位优秀投资者，就会发现没有两个人的投资策略是完全相同的。因为你可以为自己的策略注入独特风格，使其成为专属版本。这正是我认为投资如此有趣的原因，也是你能从不同人身上学到如此多东西的原因。虽然我永远不会像查理·芒格那样集中投资，但他的思维过程让我受益匪浅。尽管我对本杰明·格雷厄姆的'廉价雪茄烟蒂'策略毫无兴趣，但他的安全边际原则和市场先生比喻给了我极大启发。

And if you get to know a really good investor well, you're gonna see that no two investors are complete carbon copies of each other. And that's because you can add your own flare to your strategy and make it uniquely your own. It's why I think investing is so fun and why I think you can learn so much from different people. Even though I will never be as concentrated as an investor as Charlie Munger, I learned a great deal from him about his thinking processes. And even though I have zero interest in cheap cigar butts like Benjamin Graham, I learned so much from his margin of safety principle and his mister market analogy.

即便我对债券毫无兴趣，但关于风险认知的一切都来自霍华德·马克斯的教导。因此我认为保持开放心态至关重要——就像李小龙说的那样：你永远不知道最意想不到的地方会带给你什么宝贵洞见。但若封闭自我，就等于拒绝了那些可能让你财富大幅增值的知识。以上就是今天分享的全部内容。

Even though I have zero interest in bonds, I've learned everything I know about risk from Howard Marks. So I think that's why it's essential to keep an open mind just like Bruce Lee would say. You never know what valuable insights you're gonna learn from the most unlikely place. But if you remain a closed book, you prevent yourself from learning things that could provide you with massive improvements in your wealth. That's all I have for you today.

如果想继续交流，欢迎在Twitter关注@irrationalmrkts，或在LinkedIn联系我，搜索Kyle Grieve即可。我始终乐于听取反馈，欢迎分享如何让这档播客对你更有价值。感谢收听，我们下次见。

If you wanna keep the conversation going, shoot me a follow on Twitter at irrational m r k t s, or connect with me on LinkedIn. Just search for Kyle Grieve. I'm always open to feedback, so please feel free to share how I can make this podcast even better for you. Thanks for listening, and see you next time.

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