TIP780：2026年顶级股票精选——与肖恩·奥马利、丹尼尔·马恩克及克莱·芬克共话

所以我相信他们的话，他们并不是真的想彻底退出这个头寸，而只是想将它控制在五分之二的水平附近。

So I do believe them when they say that they're not really trying to fundamentally exit the position, but maybe they're just just trying to manage it at that two fifths cut off.

克莱德，你开头也提到了这一点。

And you touched on this at the beginning, Clyde.

这里的主要批评是，缺乏明确的催化剂。

The big criticism here is that there's no clear catalyst.

这并不是一个事件驱动型交易，你无法指出像分拆或私有化这样的具体事件。

This is not an event driven trade where you can point to a spin off or take private.

因此，从某种意义上说，这或许只是经典的价值投资：以大幅折价买入一组资产，让底层资产持续复利增长，同时股票回购悄然减少流通股数，对你有利。

And so in a way, it is maybe just classic value investing where you buy a collection of assets at a big discount, let the underlying assets continue to compound while buybacks quietly shrink the share count in your favor.

然后强调，随着时间推移，要么这个折价会收窄，要么你至少也能表现不错或足够好，因为你最初是以极低的价格入场的。

And then just stress that over time, either that discount will narrow or you'll still do at least fine or good enough because you started from a dirt cheap entry point.

只要法拉利仍然是王冠上的明珠——再次强调，它的价值超过埃克塞尔的整个市值——并且这个折价依然异常宽广，我就非常乐意押注：一个拥有良好记录的理性家族所有者，至少能在后台持续提升净资产价值，从而为我带来令人满意的回报。

And so as long as Ferrari remains the crown jewel, that's worth more than Exer's entire market cap, just to emphasize that again, and the discount stays abnormally wide, I am very happy to bet that a rational family owner with a pretty decent track record can keep compounding net asset value in the background here at least well enough to generate satisfactory returns for me.

所以，这就是我的观点。

So yeah, that's the pitch.

这不是最吸引人的投资观点，但你能明白我为什么喜欢它。

Not the sexiest pitch ever, but you can see why I like it.

克莱，太棒了。

Clay Excellent.

谢谢。

Well, thank you

非常感谢你，肖恩，提供了如此深入的投资分析。

so much, Sean, for the very thoughtful pitch.

对于不熟悉肖恩和丹尼尔的人，他们主持着《内在价值》播客，每周都会进行一次股票深度分析。

And for those who aren't familiar with Sean and Daniel, they host the Intrinsic Value podcast and they do a stock deep dive every single week.

所以，如果你一直在关注这个节目，你不会在本集上线时找到关于XER的 episode。

So if you've been following along with the show, you're not going to find an episode on XER as the time of this episode goes live.

实际上，它将在几天后发布。

It's actually going to be released a few days after.

然后丹尼尔的推荐将在下周发布。

And then Daniel's pick will be released the following week.

所以请继续关注，了解更多关于这些投资标的的信息。

So please stay tuned to learn more about these picks.

丹尼尔，请开始吧。

Daniel, please take it away.

嗯。

Yeah.

谢谢，克莱。

Thanks, Clay.

老实说，我不知道我的选择是不是最性感的。

I mean, I don't know if my pick is the most sexiest either, to be honest.

但既然今天的通话是关于我们2026年的顶级股票，我想选一家公司，我认为明年可能是情况出现转机的时刻。

But, yeah, since today's call is about our top stocks for 2026, I wanted to pick a company where I generally see next year as the moment things could turn around.

正如肖恩已经知道的，我们内在价值投资组合中有一家公司，我一直觉得2026年可能是转折之年。

And as Sean already knows, there was and still is a company in our intrinsic value portfolio where I felt 2026 might be the inflection year.

那家公司原本就是我今天打算推介的。

That was actually the company I planned to pitch today.

我甚至把所有的笔记都写完了。

I even finished all my notes.

然后 literally 一小时后，我给 Clay 发了条消息，这时 CFO 在一次会议上发言了，可以说这场演讲的基调改变了一些时间表。

Then literally an hour later and I texted Clay about it, the CFO spoke at a conference and let's just say the tone of that presentation changed the timeline a bit.

我认为核心逻辑仍然成立，尤其是在当前的估值下，但 2026 年的前景看起来没那么清晰了。

I would say the core thesis still holds, especially at the current valuation, but the setup for 2026 just doesn't look as clear anymore.

无论如何，这家公司是 PayPal。

Anyway, that company was PayPal.

所以经过这么长的铺垫，今天我就不推荐 PayPal 了。

So after a very long introduction, here I am not pitching PayPal today.

相反，我想推荐一家公司，那就是 MercadoLibre。

And instead, I thought I would pitch a company that is MercadoLibre.

有趣的是，这和 PayPal 并非完全无关，因为人们经常把 MercadoLibre 称为拉丁美洲的亚马逊和 PayPal，虽然这个类比并不完美，但它抓住了核心理念：这是一家同时打造了主导性电子商务平台和该地区最强大支付生态系统之一的公司。

And then a funny way, it's not entirely unrelated to PayPal because often people describe MercadoLibre as the Amazon and PayPal of Latin America, which isn't a perfect analogy, but it captures the basic idea, which is that this is a company that built both the dominant e commerce platform and it's also one of the most powerful payment ecosystems in the region.

计划，是的。

Plan Yeah.

我的意思是，我很高兴看到你换了一个我一直关注的公司，尤其是因为我们Mastermind社群的一位成员曾经推荐过它。

I mean, I was excited to see you switch your pick a company that's been on my radar for quite some time, especially since one of our members of our Mastermind community pitched it.

我记得他当时把MercadoLibre的早期阶段更比作eBay而不是Amazon。

I remember he compared the early days of MercadoLibre more to eBay than to Amazon.

有一个数据让我印象特别深刻，就是这家公司持续保持高水平增长的历史。

One stat that just really struck me is this company's history of consistent high levels of growth.

那时候，他们连续实现了大约23到24个季度的营收增长率超过30%。

So back then they delivered something like 23, 24 quarters of 30% plus top line growth.

而现在，这个数字已经提升到了连续27个季度。

And now that's ticked up to 27 straight quarters.

这在所有上市公司中是前所未有的。

That's just something that no other publicly traded company has ever done.

是的，确实令人印象深刻。

Yeah, it's impressive.

把MercadoLibre比作eBay可能更贴切一些。

The eBay comparison might be even more fitting.

eBay 远未实现过近27个连续季度的30%增长。

EBay is far from having achieved almost 27 consecutive quarters of 30% growth.

但在最初的几年里，MercadoLibre 采用了 eBay 的商业模式，主要促进在线拍卖。

But in the first couple of years, MercadoLibre followed eBay's business model of facilitating mostly online auctions.

花了几年时间后，他们意识到：好吧。

And it took them a couple of years, but then they realized, okay.

还有另一种商业模式似乎要好得多。

Well, there's this other business model which seems to be a lot better.

于是，他们决定放弃拍卖模式，转型为类似亚马逊的电商平台。

So at that point, they decided to move away from auctions and become more of a marketplace similar to Amazon.

当然，以 hindsight 来看，这是一个非常明智的决定。

And obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, that turned out to be a very smart decision.

我也喜欢 eBay 这个类比，因为这两家公司有一个亚马逊从未拥有的共同点，那就是支付业务。

And I also like the eBay analogy because the two companies have something in common that Amazon never had, and that's a payment operation.

eBay 收购了 PayPal，以在人们仍对在线购物心存疑虑时建立信任并减少交易摩擦。

EBay acquired PayPal to create trust and reduce friction at a time when people were still nervous about buying online.

我仍然记得十五年前的事。

I still remember that fifteen years ago.

我父母从不相信eBay，认为卖家很可能根本不会发货。

My parents never trusted eBay and thought the seller would likely never send the product.

为了替他们辩护，这种情况确实时有发生。

And to their defense, that happened from time to time.

如今，拉丁美洲在采用新技术方面大约比美国落后五到六年。

Now Latin America is probably about five to six years behind The US when it comes to adopting new technology.

这实际上是今天推介的核心要点之一，因为MercadoLibre在很大程度上受益于这一趋势，而且在某种程度上，他们至今仍在受益。

And that's actually one of the key parts of today's pitch because MercadoLibre benefited from that dynamic in a big way, and to some extent, they still are benefiting from it.

他们无法简单地收购一个类似PayPal的公司，因为当时拉丁美洲根本不存在这样的机构。

They couldn't simply acquire a PayPal equivalent because, well, nothing like that existed in Latin America at the time.

因此，他们决定自己动手，亲自打造一个。

So they decided to take matters into their own hands and just build it themselves.

这就是Mercado Pago的由来。

And that's how Mercado Parvo was born.

这一决定创造了一个强大的飞轮效应。

And that decision created a very powerful flywheel.

一旦MercadoLibre为数百万用户提供了一种可信且无缝的支付方式，这些人就开始在线购买服装等商品，而他们以前从未这样做过。

Once MELI offered a trusted seamless way for millions of people to pay, those people suddenly started to go online and shop for things like clothing online, and they've never done that before.

这个飞轮就这样开始转动了。

And that flywheel just started spinning.

于是，更多的买家带来了更多的卖家，而更多的卖家又带来了更丰富的产品种类，这反过来又吸引了更多买家加入整个MercadoLibre生态系统。

So you had more buyers, which led to more sellers, and then more sellers brought more product variety, and that in turn drew even more buyers into the entire MercadoLibre ecosystem.

克莱尔已经提到了这里惊人的增长记录。

Well, Claire already mentioned the phenomenal track record of growth here.

但让我更兴奋的是，我认为前方仍有巨大的增长空间。

But what excites me even more is how much runway I think still lies ahead.

因此，当我为Newbank做研究时，我对此领域做了一些调查。

And so I've looked into this space a little bit when I've done research for Newbank.

我发现，在未来十年，拉丁美洲的电子商务预计将以近11%的年复合增长率增长。

And what I found was that over the next decade, Latin American e commerce is expected to grow at a CAGR of of almost 11%.

因此，这是由数百万此前从未在线购物的人开始在线购物所驱动的，由于这种便利性的提升，他们的购物频率最终也随之增加。

So that is driven by millions of more people starting to shop online for what would really be the very first time and ultimately increasing their shopping frequency as a result of that increased convenience.

所以，作为背景，目前拉丁美洲的电子商务渗透率仅为14%至15%。

So today, just for context, e commerce penetration in Latin America is only around 14% to 15%.

而在美国，这一比例约为24%。

Whereas in The US, you're talking about 24%.

英国接近30%，而中国则遥遥领先，远高于此水平。

The UK is close to 30%, and then China's and a league of its own well above that.

从结构上看，拉丁美洲没有理由不能在未来几年乃至几十年内至少遵循类似的轨迹，即使程度可能稍低一些。

And there's really no structural reason why Latin America can't at least follow a similar trajectory, even if it's to a lesser extent over the coming years and decades.

随着支付方式数字化、物流改善以及信任度提升，该地区在线购物渗透率理应自然向更成熟市场已达到的水平靠拢。

As payments digitalize, as logistics improve, and as trust increases, the region's online penetration should naturally converge toward the levels we've already seen in more mature markets.

这是一股真正遍及全球的长期趋势，但在本地区尤为明显。

That is one of the broader secular trends that really is true across the entire world, but especially in this region.

是的。

Yeah.

这正是马里让我感到如此有趣的原因。

That's what makes Mali so interesting to me.

我的意思是，即使你看看南亚这样的地区，也会发现实际上有更多人在线购物，相比美国或欧盟而言。

I mean, even if you think about places or regions like South Asia, you see that actually a lot more people shop online than if you compare to The US or The EU.

南美洲，尤其是拉丁美洲，也可能发展成这样的局面。

And South America and especially Latin America could become something like this.

一家拥有这种增长历史的公司，按理说现在应该已经放缓了，但它实际上并没有。

And a company with this kind of growth history should naturally be slowing down by now, but it really isn't.

我的意思是，克莱已经提到了，而你刚才又重复了一遍。

I mean, Clay already mentioned it and you just repeated it.

连续27个季度实现30%的增长，这种表现在这个规模下是前所未有的。

The streak of twenty seven consecutive quarters with 30% growth, which is just unheard of at this scale.

从来没有任何一家公司做到过，对我来说，这听起来简直不可思议。

Like, no company ever did it, and to me it just sounds completely surreal.

这种增长动力主要来自两个方面。

And that momentum comes mainly from two places.

首先，你拥有拉丁美洲电子商务长达数十年的强劲顺风。

So first, you have the massive tailwinds of what is essentially a multi decade super cycle for Latin American e commerce.

其次，MercadoLibre在其运营市场中占据压倒性主导地位。

Then second, MercadoLibre's overwhelming dominance in the markets where it operates.

为了重新回到飞轮效应的话题，Mali不仅仅是为了支持电商平台而建立了一个支付业务。

And to bring the flywheel back into the conversation, Mali didn't just build a payments operation to support the marketplace.

他们还借鉴了亚马逊的经验，开始构建物流网络。

They also took a lesson from Amazon and started building out a logistics network.

令人印象深刻的是，至少在我看来，他们是如何做到的：亚马逊，正如我们都知道的，选择了完全一体化、资本密集型的路径，投入数十亿美元拥有基础设施的几乎每一个环节。

What's impressive is, at least to me, how they did it because Amazon chose, as we all know, this this fully integrated approach, highly capital intensive route, and they spent billions to own nearly every piece of the infrastructure.

而MELI则采取了更为灵活、资本负担更轻的方式。

And MELI took a bit more of a flexible and a less capital heavy approach.

他们拥有并运营着配送中心，以及物流网络的核心部分，负责将货物从分销中心运送到主要城市枢纽。

They own and they operate their fulfillment centers and basically the backbone of the network, moving goods from distribution centers into major city hubs.

但一旦包裹进入城市，他们就会将其交由所谓的本地配送服务合作伙伴（简称DSP）处理最后一公里的配送。

But once the package is inside the city, then they hand it off to so called local delivery service partners or in short DSPs who handle the last mile delivery.

这种混合模式让MercadoLibre获得了与亚马逊竞争所需的速度和可靠性，但资本支出却远低于亚马逊。

And this hybrid model just gave MELI the speed and reliability that it needed to compete with Amazon, but without anywhere near the same CapEx burden.

这也是他们能够如此高效扩张的原因之一，同时使其物流网络成为拉丁美洲强大的竞争优势。

And it's one of those reasons why they have been able to scale so efficiently and why their logistics network has become such a powerful moat across Latin America.

如果我理解错了，请纠正我，丹尼尔。

Correct me if I'm wrong, Daniel.

但在我看来，MercadoLibre自建物流网络的部分原因，是因为第三方配送服务根本不够好。

But I mean, the part of the reason why MELI built its own logistics network was that third party delivery services were just not good enough.

对吧？

Right?

我的理解就是这样。

I mean, that that's my understanding.

在电子商务中，速度和可靠性至关重要。

And so in ecommerce, speed and reliability are everything.

而拉丁美洲并没有，也从未拥有过像美国那样的基础设施。

And Latin America does not have and did not have the same infrastructure as The US.

根据我在各个Reddit论坛上了解到的关于MercadoLibre的情况，包裹的配送时间往往过长，有时甚至根本不会送达。

And so packages just took too long to deliver or sometimes they would never arrive at all from what I've heard on various subreddit forums about MercadoLibre.

因此，MercadoLibre自己建立并运营物流网络的需求，可能甚至比亚马逊当年做出这一决策时填补市场空白的需求还要大。

And so the need for a network owned and operated by MercadoLibre itself was probably even larger than the need for Amazon when they made that decision to try to fill that gap in the market.

所以，如果这最初就是问题所在，我很想知道你认为MELI后来为何又把第三方配送合作伙伴重新引入生态系统。

So, I mean, if that was the problem in the first place, I'd be curious to hear why you think Mallee did later bring third party delivery partners back into the ecosystem.

这是个好问题，因为这看起来有点反直觉。

That's a good question because it is a bit counterintuitive.

但我想强调的是，关键在于，当包裹到达城市枢纽时，大部分基础设施问题已经得到了解决。

But I would say that the key thing to understand here is that by the time the package reaches the city hub, most of the infrastructure problems already solved.

MELI在这一阶段合作的配送服务商（DSPs）大多是本地小型公司，对当地区域非常熟悉。

The DSPs that MELI works with at that stage, they are mostly small and local delivery companies that know the area pretty well.

在许多情况下，它们的主要客户甚至是唯一客户就是MELI，这使得它们比过去负责全程配送的国有快递公司可靠得多。

And many cases, they have merely as their own or at least their primary customer, and that makes them just far more reliable than the state run carriers used to handle the entire journey, basically.

拥有物流网络的好处显然是巨大的。

And The benefits of owning the logistics network are obviously enormous.

这是亚马逊在美国变得如此主导的主要原因之一。

It's it's one of the main reasons Amazon became so dominant in The US.

如果你想加速电子商务的普及，实际上只有两种方法：安全的支付和快速可靠的配送。

And if you want to accelerate e commerce adoption, there are really just two ways to do it, and that's secure payments, and then it's fast and reliable delivery.

尤其是在现有物流网络参差不齐的地区，作为唯一拥有端到端履约系统的平台，这带来了巨大的优势，且极难被复制。

And especially in a region where existing logistics networks are inconsistent at best, being the only platform with an end to end fulfillment system, it's just a massive advantage and extremely hard to copy.

即使Meli相比亚马逊采用了更轻资产的模式，他们仍然运营着近100个仓库和配送中心。

And even with Meli's more capital light approach compared to Amazon, they still operate close to a 100 warehouses and distribution centers.

他们拥有自己的机队，称为MELI Air。

They run their own fleet of airplanes, which are called MELI Air.

他们还建立了所谓的MELI Places，这是一个庞大的第三方商店网络，作为他们在运营区域内的取货点。

And they've built so called MELI Places, which is basically this huge network of hundreds of third party stores that function as pick up points across the regions that they operate in.

让我们短暂休息一下。

Let's take a quick break

听听今天赞助商的介绍。

and hear from today's sponsors.

你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗？

You know what sets the best businesses apart?

正是他们如何利用创新将复杂性转化为增长。

It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.

这正是亚马逊广告在AWS人工智能支持下所做的事情。

That's exactly what Amazon ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.

每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，优化整个310亿美元广告生态系统的广告效果。

Every day, Amazon ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.

结果是广告活动运行速度快30%，并能大规模带来可衡量的业务影响。

The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.

而这正是亚马逊自身推动增长的方式。

And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.

他们的智能AI将营销从一个资源密集型流程转变为一个智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，并让营销人员专注于创意和战略。

Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.

亚马逊广告正在证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。

Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.

更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部完善的同一套创新方法论。

And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.

前往 aws.comai/rstory 了解亚马逊广告的故事。

See the Amazon ad story at aws.comai/rstory.

那就是 aws.comairstory。

That's aws.comairstory.

初创公司行动迅速。

Startups move fast.

借助人工智能，他们交付速度更快，并更早地吸引企业客户。

And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.

但大单带来了更大规模的安全与合规要求。

But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.

SOC 2 并不总是足够的。

A SOC two isn't always enough.

适当的安全措施可以促成交易，也可以毁掉交易。

The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但哪位创始人或工程师能抽得出时间来暂停建设公司呢？

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?

Vanta 的人工智能和自动化功能能让您在几天内轻松准备好大单所需条件。

Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.

Vanta 会持续监控您的合规状态，确保未来的交易不会被阻拦。

And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.

此外，Vanta 会随着您的业务一同成长，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。

Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.

随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 深知何时需要什么，并已打造了最快、最便捷的路径，助您达成目标。

With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

因此，认真的初创公司都会尽早通过 Vanta 实现安全合规。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.

我们的听众可在 vanta.com/billionaires 获得 1000 美元优惠。

Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.

访问 vanta.com/billionaires，立享 1000 美元优惠。

That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.

新的一年到了，这是实现你一直梦想创业的最好时机。

It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.

就在几年前，我启动了自己的电子商务业务，而Shopify正是我起步时需要的工具。

Just a couple years ago, I launched my own e commerce business and Shopify was exactly the tool I needed to get started.

尽管很多人不断推迟梦想，等到明年再行动，但我在这里告诉你，现在就是抓住眼前机遇的时候。

While many people continually push off their dreams until the next year, I am here to tell you that now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities right in front of you.

Shopify为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数以百万计的创业者，包括我自己，都已经从普通人跃升为刚刚起步的生意人。

Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already made this leap from household names to first time business owners just getting started.

你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并使用其内置的AI工具撰写产品描述或编辑产品图片。

Choose from hundreds of beautiful templates that you can customize and use their built in AI tools to write product descriptions or edit product photos.

随着你的成长，Shopify也会在每一步与你共同成长。

And as you grow, Shopify grows with you every step of the way.

在2026年，别再等待，立即用Shopify开始销售吧。

In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.

立即注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就开始在shopify.com/wsb上销售。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

就是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

今年初，让Shopify陪伴你开启第一声销售。

Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.

克莱，好了，回到节目。

Clay All right, back to the show.

克莱，自从这个业务进入我的视野，我一直难以理解的一点是竞争定位。

Clay As this business has been on my radar, one of the things that has been a bit difficult for me to wrap my head around is competitive position.

我和肖恩都住在美国内地，当我们听到电子商务时，第一反应就是亚马逊，对吧？

Sean and I being based here in The US, I think we would say when we hear e commerce, we think Amazon, right?

但当你观察一些国际市场时，我认为竞争会变得更加激烈。

But when you look at some of these international markets, it becomes a bit more competitive, I think.

有多个不同的参与者。

Have multiple different players.

正如我提到的，当人们听到电子商务时，很多人会想到亚马逊。

So as I mentioned, many people think of Amazon when they hear e commerce.

但当你看看MercadoLibre时，他们会与Shopee、TEMU等公司竞争，这些公司分别总部位于亚洲。

But when you look at MercadoLibre, they're competing with players like Shopee, who's based out of Asia, TEMU.

这些公司在各自的本土市场非常成功，并且也尝试进入拉丁美洲市场，尤其是巴西，而巴西恰好是MercadoLibre最大和最重要的市场。

And these are companies that are incredibly successful in their home markets and have also made attempts to compete in Latin America as well, especially Brazil, which happens to be Meli's largest and most important market.

你认为这些竞争对手能够从MercadoLibre手中抢走市场份额吗？还是认为它们将在这些拉丁美洲国家共存？

Do you think these competitors will be able to steal share from MELI or do you think they're just all going to coexist in these Latin American countries?

奥斯卡，是的。

Oscar Yeah.

MercadoLibre在近20个国家运营，但真正重要的市场是巴西、墨西哥和阿根廷。

So MELI operates in close to 20 countries, but the markets that really matter are Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.

而这三个国家就占了拉丁美洲所有电子商务活动的约80%，甚至更多。

And those three alone account for about 80%, even a bit more than that, of all e commerce activity in in Latin America.

有趣的是，情况并非一直如此。

What's interesting is that this hasn't always been the case.

例如，委内瑞拉曾经是梅尔最大的最有前景的市场之一。

Venezuela, for example, used to be one of MELI's biggest and most promising markets.

随后，恶性通货膨胀来袭，经济崩溃，这一机会一夜之间消失殆尽。

And then hyperinflation hit, the economy collapsed, and the opportunity essentially disappeared overnight.

还有其他一些类似的例子，这恰恰表明该地区有多么动态，有时又多么不稳定。

And there are a few other examples like that, and that just shows you how much more dynamic and sometimes unstable that region can be.

令我感到惊讶的是，尽管经历了这一切，梅尔的复利增长从未中断过。

What's remarkable to me is that none of this, though that its entire history, has stopped MELI from compounding.

在其整个发展历程中，每当一个市场陷入困境，另一个国家就会填补空缺。

Through its entire history, whenever one market struggled, another country picked up the slack.

无论是市场平台还是梅尔巴拉圭，都自然地对通胀起到了一定的对冲作用，至少在我们讨论的高通胀但尚未达到恶性通胀的阶段是如此。

And both the marketplace and Mercado Paraguay also naturally protected against inflation, at least when we talk about high inflation that is not yet hyperinflationary.

但要真正回答你关于竞争的问题，梅尔在其运营的每一个市场中都是前两大玩家。

But to actually answer your question about competition, MELI is a top two player in every market it operates in.

即使在墨西哥——一个由于靠近美国而自然让人预期亚马逊会占据主导地位的市场——MercadoLibre依然保持了领导地位。

Even in Mexico, a market where you would naturally expect Amazon to dominate just because of its proximity to The US, MELI has maintained the leadership position.

而在拉美电子商务的瑰宝巴西，真正大规模运营的只有MercadoLibre和亚马逊两家公司。

And in Brazil, which is the crown jewel of Latin American e commerce, the only two players that really operate at scale are Melee and Amazon.

同样，在这些市场中，MercadoLibre是明确的领导者，通常在它们正面竞争的大多数国家中，市场份额约为亚马逊的三倍。

And there as well, Melee is the clear leader, typically holding roughly three times Amazon's market share in most of the countries where they go head to head.

而且这个差距也并未缩小。

And that gap hasn't been narrowing down either.

即使亚马逊实际上在这些市场投入了大量资金，过去几年中，这一差距基本保持稳定。

Even if Amazon has actually been investing quite a lot of money in those markets, that gap has been pretty stable across the last years, basically.

Shopee在巴西也有一定影响力，尤其是在低价商品类别中，但其业务严重依赖外部物流和促销活动。

And Shopee is relevant in Brazil too, especially in those low ticket categories, but its business relies heavily on external carriers and promotions.

它尚未证明其当前的运营模式在长期内能够实现盈利。

And it hasn't yet proven it can actually be profitable the way it operates right now over the long term.

因此，如果让我下注，我会选择这家盈利能力强、增长迅速、拥有实体基础设施且飞轮效应远更完善的本土企业，而不是一家亏损的外国公司——尽管这么说对Shopee过去几年的努力可能不太公平。

So if I had to bet, I'll go the highly profitable, fast growing incumbent with physical infrastructure and just a much more developed flywheel than an unprofitable foreign company, even though that phrasing might be not totally fair for what Chopi has done in the last couple of years.

我认为这对TIMU来说也类似。

And I would argue it's kind of similar for TIMU.

我与居住在该地区的人交谈过，在我看来，TIMU在拉丁美洲的地位与它在欧洲的地位相似。

I've talked to people who live in the region, and to me, it seemed that TIMU has a similar position in Latin America as it does in Europe.

很多人使用它，但其规模远不及亚马逊在欧盟或美国，以及MercadoLibre在巴西的地位。

So many people use it, but it's nowhere close to Amazon in The EU or The US and MercadoLibre in Brazil.

而且，你似乎只有在愿意对购物时间和最重要的是产品质量承担风险时，才会购买商品。

And it almost seems as if you buy something when you're willing to take a gamble on both shopping times and most importantly on product quality.

在我看来，这种模式似乎并不可持续。

And to me, that just doesn't sound as sustainable.

因此，如果我要总结一下，我认为任何外部竞争者要想在物流密度、支付整合以及端到端运营整个生态系统所带来的网络效应这三者结合上取得成功，都将极其困难。

So if I had to summarize it, I think it will be extremely difficult for any outside competitor to be merely on the combination of logistics density, payment integration, and the network effects that come from running the the entire ecosystem basically end to end.

但也不要认为电子商务是一个赢家通吃的市场，或者它不必如此。

But also don't think that e commerce is the winner takes it all market, or it doesn't have to be.

除了美国可能之外，大多数地区都会形成一种寡头垄断格局。

Most regions, except for The US maybe, settle into more of an oligopoly position.

拉丁美洲还有巨大的增长空间，允许多个参与者共同发展。

With a massive runway ahead for Latin America, there's plenty of room for multiple players to grow.

因此，如果Shopee或TIMU在该地区持续增长，不一定是以Meli的损失为代价。

So it doesn't necessarily have to be at Meli's expense should Shopee or TMU keep growing in that region.

我之前提到过，你和我在节目中介绍过一家新银行，现在它已经成为我们内在价值投资组合中的一员。

I mentioned it earlier that you and I covered a new bank on our show, and now it's a holding in our intrinsic value portfolio.

所以我们对拉丁美洲有一定了解，但也知道该地区的金融科技和银行业务极其复杂。

So we're we're familiar a bit with Latin America, but we also know that fintech and banking in that area of the world is just incredibly complex.

这可能是今年最轻描淡写的说法了。

Maybe the understatement of of the year.

所以我不希望你深入细节，但我很好奇Newbank和Meli通过Mercado Pago是否实际上是竞争对手。

So I wouldn't wanna ask you to go deep into the weeds here, but I am curious whether Newbank and Meli through Mercado Pago are actually competitors.

如果是的话，在你看来，它们之间的竞争格局如何？

And if they are, how do they stack up against each other in your opinion?

我做了关于NewBank的大部分研究工作。

I'm the one who did a lot of the work on NewBank.

你现在已经完成了关于MercadoLibre的大部分工作。

You've now done most of the work on MercadoLibres.

非常有趣的是，可以稍微比较一下双方的视角。

It'd be very interesting just to kinda compare the perspectives there.

因为你知道，我们一直对NewBank连续多个季度所展现出的数字感到震惊。

And because, you know, I mean, we've been blown away by the numbers that NewBank has been consistently putting up for quarter after quarter now.

而且NewBank甚至正试图通过获得银行特许执照进入美国市场。

And NewBank is actually even trying to expand into The US with a banking charter.

因此，这家公司的抱负非常宏大。

So some very big ambitions coming out of that company.

但与此同时，我们也明确表示，这是一个我们双方都略感陌生的商业模式。

And yet at the same time, we've also made it clear that this is a business model where we're both a little bit out of our depth.

当我坐在美国，丹尼尔坐在德国，试图弄清楚拉丁美洲终端消费者究竟发生了什么。

As I sit here in The US and Daniel sits in Germany, trying to figure out what's actually happening with the end consumer in Latin America.

显然，仅仅说‘拉丁美洲’就是一个巨大的概括。

Obviously, even just saying Latin America is a massive generalization.

所以这是一个充满活力的大市场，有太多复杂的因素，很难完全理解所有正在发挥作用的力量？

So it's a big dynamic market, which is so many moving parts that are hard to fully grasp all the forces at play?

嗯，我

Well, I

两家公司都提供信用卡，并且都在拉丁美洲最大的市场如巴西和墨西哥运营。

mean, both companies offer credit cards and both operate in the biggest Latin American markets like Brazil and Mexico.

确实存在一些竞争重叠。

There's definitely some competitive overlap.

但NewBank，正如其名称所暗示的，本质上是一家新型银行，其核心优势在于低融资成本、极其受信任的消费者品牌，以及更清洁、更传统的信贷组合。

But NewBank, as the name kind of suggests, is fundamentally a neo bank and its core strength are low funding costs and incredibly trusted consumer brand, and also a cleaner and more traditional credit portfolio.

另一方面，Mercado Pago则是从商业系统和商业生态系统中诞生的。

And Mercado Pago on the other hand was born out of the commerce system and was born out of the commerce ecosystem.

你可以处处看到这种基因的痕迹。

And you can see that DNA everywhere.

它最初是Meli电商平台的支付解决方案，随后扩展到平台外支付，最终甚至进入了线下收单领域。

It started as the payment solution for Meli's marketplace, then expanded into off platform payments and eventually even into offline acquiring.

因此，他们主要向小型商店和本地商户销售这些销售点设备，尤其是移动设备。

So they basically sell these point of sale devices, especially mobile ones, to small shops and local merchants.

而这实际上同时实现了两个目的。

And that essentially does two things at once.

首先，它推动了更多支付交易通过Mercado Pago进行。

First, it drives more payment volume through MercadoParo.

其次，它成为了一座桥梁，将线下商户引入数字经济。

And second, it becomes kind of a bridge that brings offline merchants into the digital economy.

在一个约85%的商户仍完全线下的地区，这一点至关重要。

And that's a big deal in a region where roughly 85% of merchants are still entirely offline.

因此，对许多商户而言，MELI的销售点设备是最终在线上上架商品并融入MELI所提供更广泛生态系统的第一步。

So for many of them, a MELI point of sales device is the first step toward eventually listing products online and becoming part of the broader ecosystem that MELI offers.

而我个人认为比NuBank更容易理解的McAutoPago部分，是其对第一方行为数据的访问能力。

And the part of McAutoPago that I personally find easier to understand than NuBank is its access to first party behavioral data.

当他们向商户或消费者发放贷款时，可以基于成千上万个数据点做出决策。

When they issue loans, whether to merchants or consumers, they can base those decisions on thousands of data points.

所以他们知道你最终买了什么、退回了多少商品以及你是如何付款的。

So they know what you ended up buying, how many products you returned, and how you paid for them.

他们拥有大量数据来决定谁应该获得贷款、谁不应该获得，以及如何定价。

And they have so much data to decide who should get a loan and who shouldn't, and also how to price them.

这让我对自己理解这个业务更有信心了。

It just makes me a lot more confident that I can understand this business.

也许这正是Mercado Pago愿意承担比NuBank略高风险的原因之一。

And perhaps it's one of the reasons why Mercado Pago is willing to take on slightly more risk than NewBank.

你可以通过所谓的不良贷款（NPLs）来清楚地看到这一差异。

One of the best ways that you can see this difference is in so called NPLs, which stands for nonperforming loans.

分析师通常会关注两个关键节点。

And analysts usually look at two checkpoints.

一是逾期15天的贷款，二是逾期90天的贷款。

So loans that go delinquent after fifteen days, and then loans that go delinquent after ninety days.

NuBank的不良贷款率明显低于Mercado Pago，这意味着其借款人中未能按时还款的比例更小。

And Newbank's NPLs are noticeably lower than Mercado Pago's, which simply means a smaller share of its borrowers end up missing payments.

与此相反的是，Mercado Pago 的风险调整后利润率略高于 20%，几乎是 NewBank 的两倍，而这已经扣除了两家公司所面临的所有信贷损失。

And the flip side of that is that Mercado Pago earns risk adjusted a margin of a little over 20%, which is roughly double the margin of Newbank, and this is basically after you account for all the credit losses that both of them face.

换句话说，你可以说 Mercado Pago 承担了更多风险，但同时也因承担这些风险而获得了显著更高的回报。

So in other words, you could say that Mercado Pago takes more risk, but it also gets paid significantly more for taking that risk.

更重要的是，很可能两家公司都保留了超过覆盖预期损失所需的准备金。

And most importantly, probably, both of them carry more reserves than needed to cover all expected losses.

因此，这两家公司都没有在赌博性地发放信用卡或向其他商户或消费者提供的贷款。

So neither of these companies is out there gambling with credit cards or loans that they give off to other merchants or consumers.

然而，如果麦哲伦运营的主要经济体中有一个遭遇严重经济衰退，这部分业务将面临压力。

And still, this is the part of the business that would come under pressure if one of the major economies Mercado Parvo operates in were to experience a serious downturn.

当然，在经济稳定或改善的环境中，更高的风险会带来更好的回报，但如果宏观环境迅速恶化，情况也可能相反。

And more risk obviously beautifully and stable or improving environments, but it can cut the other direction if macro conditions deteriorate quickly.

威廉，我认为每位听众都熟悉投资新兴市场所伴随的风险。

William I think everyone listening is going to be familiar with the risks that come with investing in emerging markets.

麦哲伦显然也暴露在许多这些风险之中。

MercadoLibre is obviously exposed to many of them as well.

例如，你只需看看阿根廷和委内瑞拉等国家的高通胀环境，但这家公司在这类风暴中展现出非凡的应对记录。

For example, you just look at the high inflation environments in countries like Argentina and Venezuela, but the company just has a phenomenal track record of navigating these storms.

这很大程度上归功于管理层，对吧？

A lot of that comes down to management, right?

马科斯·加尔佩林是MercadoLibre的联合创始人，他已领导公司超过二十年。

Marcos Galperin, he's the co founder of Meli and he's been leading the company for more than two decades.

他始终从容应对该地区发生的每一次宏观危机，同时始终坚守公司长期愿景。

He's consistently steered through every macro crisis the region has thrown at him, all while keeping this long term vision intact for the company.

在此过程中，他还做出了许多非常有利于股东的非凡决策。

He's also made these remarkable decisions that are very shareholder friendly along the way.

因此，MercadoLibre可能是我所知的唯一一家股票激励成本仅占营收约1%的大型科技公司。

So Meli might be the only large tech company that I've seen with stock based compensation running at about 1% of revenue.

这意味着现有股东几乎不会遭遇股权稀释。

And this means that there's essentially no dilution for existing shareholders.

对于一家规模如此庞大且增长速度如此之快的公司来说，我认为这实属罕见。

For a company operating at this scale and still growing as fast as they are, I think that is just very hard to find.

乍一看，最让人感到奇怪的是利润率结构。

The one thing that can look odd at first glance is the margin profile.

通常你会期望这类公司的利润率会扩大，但对MELI来说，情况几乎正好相反。

Normally you would expect margins to expand for a company like this, but with MELI, it's almost the opposite.

在2000年代中期，营业利润率曾超过30%。

Operating margins, they were north of 30% in the mid 2000s.

如今，我们的利润率已降至低至中位的13%至15%。

Today we're in the thirty:fifty low to mid teens.

你能再多谈谈这一点吗？

How about you talk more about that?

是的，这是个很好的观点。

Yeah, that's a great point.

这看起来有点反直觉，但利润率的下滑始于2017年左右，当时公司有意识地进行再投资，这一影响在财务数据中显现出来。

It's a bit counterintuitive, but the decline started around 2017 and that was a time where largely the result of deliberate reinvestment showed up in the financials.

在那段时间，公司大力扩展了所有旨在长期发展的投资。

And there was a period when the company aggressively expanded all of the investments they wanted to do for the long term.

我们正在谈论物流网络。

So we're talking about the logistics network.

我们正在扩大免费配送补贴以加速采用。

We're talking about expanding free shipping subsidies to accelerate adoption.

大约在同一时期，他们也开始扩大MercadoPago的规模。

They also began scaling MercadoPago at about that time frame.

因此，除了电商平台之外，当你希望扩展支付提供商时，必须进行大量前期投资，而收益则会延迟显现。

So beyond the marketplace, when you expect to scale a payment provider, you have to do a lot of investment upfront, and you only get the benefits of that later on.

这些举措都暂时压缩了运营利润率，但极大地增强了公司的长期竞争优势。

And each of these moves temporarily compressed operating margins, but dramatically strengthened the long term competitive position of the company.

换句话说，利润率的波动是CEO为了获取更多市场份额并巩固梅尔迪地位而做出的长期战略选择。

So in other words, the margin volatility was one of those long term strategic choices of the CEO to take more market share and just solidify Mehdi's position.

如今，利润率又开始回升。

And today, margins are picking back up again.

正如你所提到的，目前利润率处于低位，因为至少这一轮投资的主要工作已经完成。

As you mentioned, are in the low teens right now because most of the heavy lifting from at least that investment cycle is now done.

物流网络的利用率正在上升，金融科技业务已在它们最大的市场中达到规模。

Utilization of the logistics network is increasing, and the fintech business has reached scale in in their biggest markets.

不过，利润率仍有很大的扩展空间。

Although, there is still plenty of room for margin expansion.

如果你展望未来五到十年，这无疑是投资逻辑的一部分。

That's definitely part of the thesis if you look out five to ten years.

我们甚至还没谈到马利去年推出的广告业务，这个业务增长非常迅速，显然是一个高利润率的业务。

We didn't even talk about the ads business that Mally just rolled out last year, for example, which is growing very quickly and is obviously a high margin business.

我认为，没有理由不期待他们达到亚马逊那样的业绩水平。

And I think there's no reason why you shouldn't expect similar numbers to what Amazon has put up.

正如我所说，他们才刚刚起步，因此我认为这方面的增长空间还很大。

They, like I said, just started out, so I think there's a lot of growth coming from that.

总体而言，如果偶尔看到利润率下降，我并不会感到惊讶。

And overall, I wouldn't be surprised if we see margin declines from time to time.

将会出现新的投资周期。

There will be new investment cycles.

就在今年，又有一项免费配送计划对利润率造成了压力。

And just this year, there was another free shipping initiative that put pressure on margins.

我通常认为，这是一件好事。

I would generally say, I see this as a positive thing.

首先，因为更多的人进入了这个生态系统。

First of all, because more people come into the ecosystem.

其次，因为进入生态系统的人越多，你在物流网络上的成本就越低，因为每次都会变得更高效。

And second of all, because the more people come into the ecosystem, the more people or the more money you will save on your logistic network because it just gets more efficient every time.

所以，是的，我相信在MELI开始优化利润率之前，还会有一段时间。

So, yeah, I believe it will be a while before MELI starts optimizing for margins.

前方仍有巨大的增长空间，现在停止对业务进行再投资还为时过早。

There's still way too much growth ahead to stop reinvesting in the business now.

是的，我想就这些了。

Yeah, I guess that's it.

这基本上就是我的全部观点。

That's pretty much most of my pitch.

我基本上已经从过去那种可以称为深度价值投资的贝宝，转向了一家可能定价更高的公司，而通常这并不是我寻找机会的地方。

I basically switched from what you could call a deep value pitch by now with PayPal to a company that is probably on the more expensive side, which is usually not where I look for opportunities.

但在录制时，这只股票从历史高点下跌了约25%，考虑到其增长前景，其估值并不算不合理。

But this stock traded down about 25% from all time highs at the time of recording, and factoring in its growth, it's not trading at unreasonable levels or valuations.

这是一个如果你相信它，我就建议你至少持有四到五年的选择，未来十年它可能成为一家非常出色的企业。

And it's really a pick that if you believe in it, I would say you need to hold it for probably four to five years and it could be a fantastic company over the next decade.

听起来很像NewBank。

Sounds a lot like NewBank.

而MercadoLibre，人们总是喜欢把它和亚马逊比较。

And MercadoLibre, people love to compare it to Amazon.

在某些方面，这种比较是有道理的。

And in some ways, that's a good comparison.

但在某些方面，这种比较又不够充分。

In some ways, it's lacking.

其中一个重大区别是，据我所知，MercadoLibre并没有像亚马逊那样拥有类似的云计算雄心，而亚马逊的云计算业务已成为其盈利的巨大力量。

One of the big differences is that MercadoLibre does not, as far as I know, have the same kind of cloud computing ambitions as Amazon, which has really become just a juggernaut of their profitability.

正如你所说，我们没有太多时间深入探讨，但让我对MercadoLibre最兴奋的，可能是它的广告机会。

And then as you said and we didn't have a ton of time to linger on it, but what makes me most excited about MercadoLibre is probably the advertising opportunities.

你已经看到亚马逊成为全球最大的广告平台之一。

You've seen Amazon become one of the largest advertising platforms in the world.

像Uber这样的公司，我过去曾向Clay、Dan等人推荐过，我们之前也多次深入讨论过，广告业务显著提升了它们的利润率。

And with companies like Uber that I've pitched to Clay in the past and Dan and all, we've talked about at length before, advertising is really materially increasing their profit margins on.

这可能是一个同样困难，甚至更困难的业务，但如果他们能大规模实现数字广告，潜力巨大。

And this is probably an equally difficult business, if not more so, but there's a lot of potential to the upside if they can implement digital advertising at scale.

至少这是我个人的看法。

At least that would be my thought.

是的。

Yeah.

完全正确。

Totally.

我的意思是，我真的很期待几周后在我们的节目中向你，Sean，深入分析这只股票，因为我觉得还有更多值得探讨和令人兴奋的内容。

I mean, I honestly look forward a lot to when I pitch this stock in a deep dive on our show to you, Sean, in a couple of weeks, because I think there's so much more to talk about and so much more to get excited about.

Clay，我完全同意你们关于广告业务的看法。

Clay I am just totally with you guys on the advertising business.

这确实让我非常兴奋。

That definitely excites me.

我认为广告是个难啃的骨头，但如果他们能做成，潜在的回报将是巨大的。

I think advertising is a tough nut to crack, but if they can do it, the potential upside is just enormous.

考虑到我今天的选择，这应该不令人意外。

That should be no surprise given my pick today.

谢谢你，Daniel，做了这么精彩的推介。

So thank you, Daniel, for the wonderful pitch here.

我很惊讶你居然在周六晚上就整理出了这份内容。

I was very surprised you put this together on the Saturday night.

也谢谢你为今天的讨论熬夜做最后的研究。

Thank you for grinding out that last minute research too for the discussion today.

如果你们事先给我看了这两个选择，但没说是谁挑的，你们会怎么样？

And had you guys shown me these two picks ahead of time without saying who was picking what?

我会说丹尼尔在推介XERB，肖恩在推介Melly。

Would have said Daniel was pitching XERB and Sean was pitching Melly.

所以我很欣赏你们俩都尝试跳出自己更传统的投资风格来思考。

So I like that you both try and think outside the box from your more conventional investing styles.

尽管你们的选股显得更有创意，但我希望你们能原谅我今天只是选择了一位目前交易略显低迷的七巨头公司成员。

So while you guys have been, I would say a bit more creative with your picks, I hope you'll forgive me today for simply selecting a magnificent seven player that's trading slightly out of favor.

我希望这次推介能促使你们在今年的《内在价值》播客中覆盖这家公司。

My hope is that this pitch will hopefully nudge you guys to cover it on the Intrinsic Value podcast this year.

我相信我们迟早会做。

I'm sure we will at some point.

慢慢来，但稳步前进，我们正在逐步覆盖标普500指数的公司。

Slowly slowly but surely, we're making our way through the S and P 500.

既然我们已经进入每周覆盖一家公司的播客第一年，却仍未覆盖完全部七巨头，这一点或许让人意外。

And the fact that we're a year into covering different company every week on our podcast, we still have not done all of the mag seven.

也许这会让人们感到惊讶，但我想我们一直以一比五十的节奏慢慢推进。

Maybe that's surprising to people, but I guess we've taken our time one:fifty with this one.

这确实是一个很有趣的主题，也许取决于你怎么看待它。

Well, certainly is a fun one to cover and maybe it depends on how you look at it.

一方面，有太多东西可以讨论了。

On the one hand, there's just so much to talk about.

另一方面，它也可能非常有争议。

On the other hand, it can be very controversial.

我肯定有些听众会喜欢这个选择。

I'm sure some listeners are going to love the pick.

有些听众会因为各种原因讨厌这个选择。

Some listeners are going to hate the pick for various reasons.

我今天的选择是Meta。

My pick today is Meta.

首先，我要提到我最近为自己的投资组合购买了股票。

First, I'll mention that I did recently purchase shares for my own portfolio.

我的平均买入价约为每股6.48美元，目前占投资组合的3%左右。

My average purchase price is around 6.48 a share and it's currently around 3% of the portfolio.

我很想再加一些。

I'd love to add more.

我只是很难卖出现有的持仓来为新的持仓融资。

I just have a hard time selling existing positions to fund a new position.

所以从宏观来看，不幸的是，在投资方面，我可能是个学得很慢的人。

So zooming out, unfortunately, when it comes to investing, I can just be a slow learner.

Meta 是我关注时间最长的股票之一。

Meta is one of those stocks that I've watched for the longest time.

而且显然，我们都对这家公司很熟悉。

And obviously we're all familiar with the company.

考虑到这个公司所面临的争议程度和监管压力，它经历了多次大幅下跌，这在不同时间点吸引了许多投资者的关注。

And just given the level of controversy with this name and the regulatory pressure they face, it's gone through a number of significant drawdowns, which gets a lot of investors interested at different points in time.

但我过去从未真正大规模买入这只股票，我希望这次能纠正过去的错误。

But I never really acted in size with this name, but I hopefully wanted to correct that mistake from the past.

所以我目睹的第一次下跌发生在2018年。

So the first drawdown I witnessed was in 2018.

如果投资者或听众还记得，那正是剑桥分析公司丑闻爆发的时期。

If investors or listeners remember, this was during the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

股价下跌了约40%，我短暂持有过这只股票，并在短期内锁定了利润。

The stock fell by around 40% and I temporarily owned the stock for a short period of time before locking in a profit.

而让我一直不敢重仓投资Meta的原因， simply 是我对投资超大型公司存在偏见。

And part of what kept me from really betting big on Meta was simply this bias I had against investing in very large companies.

因此在2018年，其市值一度跌破4000亿美元。

So in 2018, the market cap dipped below 400,000,000,000.

我当时就想，它还能再大多少呢？

And it's just like, how much bigger can it really be?

那时，苹果是唯一一家市值达到万亿美元的公司。

At that point in time, you had Apple, that was the only trillion dollar company at the time.

而今天，Meta已经成为一家市值1.5万亿美元的公司。

Well, today, Meta is a $1,500,000,000,000 company.

因此，在这段时间里，它的市值几乎增长了四倍。

So they've nearly 4x ed their market value over that period of time.

直到最近，我才真正认识到Meta为广告主所提供的服务。

It also wasn't until just recently that I appreciated the service that Meta is providing to advertisers.

过去几年，我一直在为一家小型电子商务公司投放Meta广告。

I've been running Meta ads for a small e commerce company over the past couple of years.

我亲眼见证了广告主如何查看其广告支出背后的數據。

I saw firsthand how advertisers are able to view the data behind their ad spend.

你可以看到展示次数、点击次数、点击率、转化次数以及每次获取成本。

You can see the number of impressions, the number of clicks, the click through rate, the number of conversions, cost per acquisition.

这些数据为广告主提供了他们所需的一切，让他们清楚了解每一分钱的广告投入在投资回报上的表现。

There's all this data that really gives advertisers exactly what they need to understand the performance of how every dollar they're spending is performing in terms of return on investment.

这让我想起了一句老话：我的广告有一半没效果，只是我不知道是哪一半。

It reminds me of the old saying, half of my advertising doesn't work, I just don't know which half.

Meta彻底解决了这个问题。

Meta just completely eliminates that problem.

因此，在研究Meta的过程中，我找到了一份早在2018年的访谈。

So in my research on Meta, I came across an interview all the way back from 2018.

他是与多尔西资产管理公司的帕特·多尔西进行的对话。

Was with Pat Dorsey of Dorsey Asset Management.

我觉得这句话太棒了，必须今天分享给大家。

I And thought it was such a great line that I had to share it here today.

在采访中，他说过类似这样的话：如果上帝发明了一个广告平台，那它一定会叫Facebook。

So in the interview, he said something to the effect of, If God invented an advertising platform, it would be called Facebook.

而Meta最大的突破在于能够衡量广告支出的回报。

And really the biggest breakthrough with Meta was being able to measure the return on ad spend.

当你看户外广告牌或广播广告时，这些形式可能永远不会消失。

When you look at billboards or radio advertising, these may never go away.

但数字广告已被证明对希望推广产品和增长业务的企业来说有效得多。

Just digital advertising has proven to be significantly more effective for businesses wanting to market their products and grow.

因此，Meta和谷歌或Alphabet这两家公司一直是数字广告领域的主导者。

So Meta and Google or Alphabet, these two have really been the dominant players in digital advertising.

在过去十年中，当我观察它们的股票回报时，发现两者之间有着惊人的相关性。

And over the past decade, when I look at their stock returns, it's been surprisingly correlated between the two.

但当我们看2025年时，发现两者出现了显著的分化。

But when we look at 2025, we saw a pretty drastic divergence.

因此，截至12月中旬录制时，Alphabet的股价今年上涨了约70%，表现极为出色。

So here as of the time of recording in mid December, shares of Alphabet are up around 70% on the year, which is just phenomenal.

它现在已被视为人工智能领域的赢家。

It's been labeled an AI winner now.

而Meta的股价仅上涨了约9%。

And shares of Meta are up around 9%.

但Meta的业务各方面都在全力运转。

But Meta's business has been firing on all cylinders.

他们在最近一个季度的收入增长率超过25%。

They have revenue growth over 25% in the most recent quarter.

他们还充分利用了强大的定价能力，平均每则广告的价格同比上涨了10%。

They're capitalizing on immense pricing power as well as the average price per ad grew by 10% year over year.

Soni，这对我来说，可能对你Sean来说也很有趣，我们现在竟然把Alphabet称为2025年的赢家。

Soni It's funny to me and probably to you, Sean, well, that we now talk about Alphabet as a winner of 2025.

长期以来，我们一直听到我们的选股观点认为，Alphabet实际上落后于OpenAI。

And for a long time, we heard about our stock pick that Alphabet is actually lagging behind OpenAI.

现在结果还不错，这当然对我们来说是好事。

Now it worked out pretty well, which, of course, is great for us.

但我其实和你一样，Clay，经历过一段非常相似的历程，关于Meta。

But I've actually gone through a very similar journey with Meta as you did, Clay.

它多次出现在我的心理观察名单上，但我始终没有下手买入。

It's been on my mental watch list so many times, but I never ended up pulling the trigger.

有趣的是，回看Max七，他们的成功似乎显而易见。

And it's funny because looking back at the Max seven, it feels like their success was so obvious.

但事实上，正如你提到的，他们重新定义了公司在达到十年前规模后还能增长多少。

But in reality, and you mentioned it, they kind of redefined how much companies can grow at the scale that they had reached even ten years ago.

我的意思是，你提到2018年，苹果成为首家市值突破万亿美元的上市公司。

I mean, you mentioned that in 2018, Apple was the first publicly traded company to ever reach a trillion dollar market cap.

当时这个里程碑看起来似乎不会这么快被再次超越。

And that milestone really seemed like it wouldn't be surpassed that quickly again.

而现在不到十年的时间里，我们已经有超过十家公司突破了这一里程碑，其中一些的市值更是达到了数倍之多。

And now less than ten years later, we have more than 10 companies that have crossed that mark, and some are worth multiples of that.

因此，这让我意识到，即使在最大的公司中，依然存在大量机会，尤其是当它们因暂时性问题或对管理层的普遍质疑而被低估时——就像扎克伯格多次经历的那样。

So if anything, that has taught me that there's still plenty of opportunity, even in the biggest names, especially when they're beaten down by either temporary issues or just general doubts about the management as it has been the case with Zuckerberg now multiple times.

特雷，是的。

Trey Yeah.

我的意思是，如果我要为这一切总结一个叙事，我认为互联网只是催生了这种赢家通吃的动态格局。以数字广告为例，Meta和Alphabet已经完全主导了这个市场，而该市场仍在以两位数的速率增长。

Mean, it also points to how if I were to wrap some narrative around this, I think the internet has just enabled just this winner take all dynamic where you look at digital advertising, for example, just Meta and Alphabet have just eaten this market as it continues to grow at double digit rates.

因此，Meta近期的股价下跌主要源于对其资本支出的担忧。

So the recent drawdown in Meta is really primarily driven by fears related to their CapEx spend.

AI领域的资本支出如今已成为这七家科技巨头的热门话题。

So AI CapEx is just all the rage with many of these Mag-seven stocks.

2025年，Meta计划在资本支出上投入约700亿美元。

In 2025, Meta is going to spend around $70,000,000,000 on CapEx.

由于它们目前的产能尚无法满足需求——这本身就非常惊人——它们预计2026年的资本支出将大幅增长。

And since they don't have the capacity that they currently would like to have, which is pretty remarkable, they do expect significant growth in CapEx in 2026.

他们显然不希望在计算需求上低于近年来的水平。

They clearly don't want to undershoot their compute needs that they've had in recent years.

因此，扎克伯格在最近的财报电话会议上表示，他们预计这笔额外支出将带来良好的回报。

So Zuckerberg mentioned on their recent earnings call that they do expect this additional spend to yield good results.

当然，他们相信，如果不是为了这个目的，他们怎么会这么做呢？

And of course they believe that otherwise, why would they do such a thing?

但他还补充指出，如果他们在这类计算需求上投资过多，而自身又不需要全部算力，他们可以允许其他公司使用这些闲置的计算资源。

But he made the additional point that if it turns out that they over invest in these compute needs, then they would be able to allow other companies to use that compute should they not really need it.

因此，市场正在努力弄清的重大问题是：Meta 的巨额 AI 投资是否会像元宇宙投资一样，最终未能为投资者带来任何正向回报。

So that's the big question that the market is really trying to figure out is will Meta's huge AI spend turn out like the Metaverse spend, for example, that didn't really deliver any positive returns for investors.

但如果我们回顾 Meta 的历史，从更宏观的角度来看，扎克伯格显然有良好的资本配置记录，并成功应对了企业面临的各种挑战。

But if we look back historically at Meta and understand the bigger picture, Zuckerberg clearly has a history of being a good capital allocator and overcoming the challenges that the business has faced.

所以，如果回溯到 2000 年代中期，Facebook Blue 在 Myspace 一年后推出，而 Facebook 却成功超越了当时全球最受欢迎、排名第一的社交平台 Myspace，这相当了不起。

So if you zoom all the way back to the mid 2000s, Facebook Blue was started one year after Myspace and Facebook managed to overtake Myspace, which was pretty remarkable given that it was the number one social media platform and one of the most popular sites globally.

接着是 2011 年至 2014 年期间，从桌面端向移动端的转型。

Then you have the transition from desktop to mobile in the early 2010s, 2011 to 2014 timeframe.

他们最初推出移动应用时，体验非常糟糕。

They started out, their mobile had a pretty terrible experience.

在随后的几年里，移动业务最终贡献了他们约90%的收入，这再次证明了扎克伯格能够应对这些风暴和转型。

Then in the years that followed, mobile would end up generating around 90% of their revenue, which again is just another example of Zuckerberg being able to weather through these storms and these transitions.

在短短几年内，他们彻底转变了整个业务。

In the span of just a few years, they essentially transformed their entire business.

然后在2012年，他们收购了Instagram。

And then in 2012, they had the purchase of Instagram.

他们以仅10亿美元的价格收购了它，而当时Instagram没有任何收入，只有13名员工。

They bought it for just $1,000,000,000 that had no revenue, 13 employees.

如今，据估计Instagram每年产生的收入接近1000亿美元。

And today it's estimated that Instagram generates nearly $100,000,000,000 in revenue per year.

然后在2014年，他们又以210亿美元收购了WhatsApp，再次取得巨大成功。

And then 2014, they made another home run acquisition in buying WhatsApp for 21,000,000,000.

他们还整合了其他社交媒体公司成功的做法。

And they've also integrated what's been successful for other social media companies.

例如，Snapchat推出故事功能后，他们就在Instagram和Facebook Blue上整合了相同的功能。

So for example, you have Stories after Snapchat released those, they integrated the same feature on Instagram and Facebook Blue.

随着TikTok的兴起，他们迅速推出了Reels功能。

Then with the rise of TikTok, they were very fast in launching Reels.

在最近一次财报电话会议上，他们透露Reels的年经常性收入（ARR）已突破500亿美元。

In their most recent earnings call, they shared that reels crossed a $50,000,000,000 ARR.

因此，扎克伯格长期以来一直带领公司应对这些持续变化和不确定性的时期。

So Zuckerberg has a long history of navigating the company through these periods of constant change and uncertainty.

凭借他们所掌握的资金和资源，我非常喜欢当前这个水平的风险回报比例。

And with the capital and resources at their disposal, I just like the risk reward profile at this level.

因此，Meta的绝大部分收入来自其应用家族（如Facebook Blue、Instagram和WhatsApp）的广告。

So Meta generates the vast majority of their revenue from advertising on their family of apps, think Facebook Blue, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

我的观点是，人工智能将成为未来业务增长的重要驱动力。

And my thesis is that AI will be a big driver for the business going forward.

总之，无论从利润率、活跃用户增长、平台使用时长等任何指标来看，这项业务的实力似乎都在不断增强。

So by all measures, the strength of this business only seems to be improving, whether you're looking at margins, growth in active users, time spent on the platforms, etcetera.

如果有人在寻找一个能从人工智能趋势中受益的公司，我认为Meta无疑是一个很好的选择。

And if anyone is looking for a company that will be a beneficiary to the trend of AI, I think that Meta is certainly a good candidate.

许多人正在猜测这些公司未来将如何利用人工智能支出。

So many are speculating on how all these companies will be able to capitalize on AI spend in the future.

我认为可以说，Meta已经在这方面实践了十多年。

I think it can be argued that Meta has been doing this for more than a decade now.

像Facebook这样的社交媒体应用早已由人工智能和机器学习驱动。

Social media apps like Facebook are being run by AI and machine learning already.

因此，Meta和Alphabet在这方面已经深耕许久。

So them, alongside Alphabet, have been at this for a while now.

所以我想再多谈一谈为什么人工智能将成为Meta的助力。

So I wanted to talk a bit more about why AI will be a tailwind for Meta.

我这里有四个观点。

I have four points here.

第一，人工智能将使用户和内容创作者更容易生成内容。

First is AI is going to make it easier for users and content creators to generate content.

Meta 自身也提供了允许用户进行此操作的工具。

And Meta themselves even has tools that allows users to do this.

由于创建新内容将变得更加容易，我认为可以合理地假设未来将产生更多的内容。

Since creating new content will be easier, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that more content is going to be generated going forward.

第二，仅仅拥有内容是不够的。

Second, it's just not enough just to have the content.

Meta 需要能够向用户推送相关的内容。

Meta needs to be able to deliver content that is relevant to users.

随着 AI 不断改进其算法和推荐模型，平台上的用户参与度将会提升。

As AI continues to improve their algorithms and recommendation models improve, engagement on the platform will increase.

我的意思是，我们已经多年目睹了这一趋势。

I mean, we've been seeing that for many years now.

这并不是猜测。

This isn't speculation.

Meta 所有应用的用户参与度都在提升，这已经在发生了。

Engagement across all of Meta's apps are improving, so it's already happening.

第三，他们在平台上的参与度提升意味着向用户推送的广告会更多，这也引出了我的第三点。

And third, more engagement on their platforms means more ads are going to be delivered to users, which brings me to my third point.

Meta 拥有向用户投放广告的模型。

Meta has the models that deliver advertisements to users.

随着他们的模型因人工智能而持续改进，这意味着他们的广告在转化和为广告主创造更多价值方面将变得更加有效。

As their models continue to improve as a result of AI, this essentially means that their ads will continue to be more effective at converting and delivering more value to advertisers.

因此，随着时间推移，他们可以提高广告定价，从而获得更强的议价能力。

As a result, they can charge more for ads over time, which gives them more pricing power.

最后，在这一点上，我要提到人工智能也让广告主更容易创建新创意并在其广告活动中进行测试。

And lastly, on this point, would mention that AI also makes it easier for advertisers to spin up new creatives and test them out in their campaigns.

投放不同广告的成本更低、操作更简便，这将帮助广告主打造更有效的广告活动。

It's cheaper and easier to run different ads, which will allow advertisers to put together more effective campaigns.

此外，人工智能或许还能降低广告主的进入门槛。

And perhaps AI will also remove some of the barriers to entry for advertisers.

例如，有些人缺乏技术能力，不知道如何投放广告或测试新创意。

For example, some just don't have the technical experience to figure out how to run ads, how to test new creatives.

我认为，随着时间推移，Meta 将使在他们的平台上投放广告变得越来越便捷。

And I think that Meta is just going to make advertising on their platform more and more accessible over time.

因此，如果有人聘请代理机构来帮助管理数字广告，每月的费用可能迅速高达数千美元。

So if one were to hire an agency to do this for them to manage their digital ads, it can quickly cost thousands of dollars per month.

对于那些目前没有时间或资金投放广告的众多企业来说，Meta 有充分的理由努力消除这一障碍。

It's certainly in Meta's best interest to try and remove that barrier for as many businesses as possible who just don't have the time or don't have the capital to run ads today.

因此，我认为投资 Meta 的机会在于，既能接触到人工智能潜力带来的上行空间，又能以合理的价格获得这一收益。

So I think the opportunity in Meta is getting some exposure to the potential upside of AI's capabilities while also getting that upside at a reasonable price.

关于估值，简单来说，当我调整一次性所得税拨备后，Meta 的调整后市盈率约为 22 倍。

So really quickly on the valuation here, when I adjust for a one time income tax provision, Meta trades for an adjusted PE of around 22.

如果我们查看标普 500 指数并剔除七巨头，整个市场的估值水平也与此相近。

And if we look at the S and P 500 and exclude the Mag seven, the market's also trading at a similar level.

因此，市场本质上是在告诉我们，Meta 的估值应当与标普 500 中的普通公司持平，但我认为这并未充分认可它的价值。

So essentially the market's telling us that Meta should trade in line with your typical company in the S and P 500, which I just don't think is giving them enough credit.

这类似于 Alphabet 在很长一段时间内都低于市场平均水平的情况。

It's similar to how for an extended period of time, Alphabet traded below that of the market.

然而，谷歌继续发布稳健的业绩，并悄然站在人工智能的前沿。

Yet Alphabet continued to publish solid results and quietly be at the forefront of AI.

当我们今天审视Meta时，其总收入增长超过20%，利润也以相似幅度上升，公司还投入超过400亿美元用于股票回购，并支付了少量股息。

When we look at Meta today, top line's growing north of 20%, profits are up a similar level, and the company's deploying more than $40,000,000,000 into share repurchases in addition to paying out a small dividend as well.

最后，我想提一下投资者投资Meta时所获得的几个隐含看涨期权。

And lastly, I would mention a few embedded call options that investors get when investing in Meta.

WhatsApp目前拥有超过30亿月活跃用户，而其对该平台的变现仍处于非常早期的阶段。

So WhatsApp, they currently have over 3,000,000,000 monthly active users, and they're in the very early stages of monetizing this platform.

我认为在未来五年内，WhatsApp将成为盈利增长的重要贡献者。

I think in the coming five years, WhatsApp is going to be a significant contributor to earnings growth.

他们还有Reality Labs，即虚拟现实和增强现实领域。

They also have Reality Labs, think virtual reality, augmented reality.

这一业务板块目前并未给我太多启发，也未能引起我对它未来前景的太大兴趣。

This segment doesn't give me too much inspiration or interest me too much in terms of what it will deliver going forward.

也许未来它会成为一个盈利的业务部门，为消费者或企业带来广泛的吸引力。

Perhaps it'll be another profitable division for them down the line by generating broad appeal for consumers or enterprises.

我不会在这个领域上押下重注。

I'm not going to place a big bet on that segment specifically.

最后，该公司发布了一个开源大语言模型，据估计其排名第四，落后于Anthropic、OpenAI和Alphabet或谷歌的DeepMind。

Then lastly, the company has released an open source LLM and it's estimated to be the number four player behind Anthropic, OpenAI and Alphabet or Google's DeepMind.

所以这基本上概括了整个观点。

So that pretty much sums up the pitch.

我非常想知道你们怎么看。

I'd be really curious to hear what you guys think.

威廉，这是个不错的分析，克莱。

William It's a good one, Clay.

天啊，我记得2022年第一次深入研究Meta时，读了阿斯沃斯·达莫达兰当时对这家公司的估值。

And gosh, I remember really looking into Meta for the first time in 2022 and reading Aswath Damodaran's valuations of the company at that time.

我当时很惊讶，从2021年的高点开始，该股在2022年下跌了近80%。

And I was just pretty wild that from its peak in 2021, the stock was down nearly 80% in 2022.

对于一家拥有全球三分之一以上人口使用Facebook、具备如此卓越的增长和盈利能力以及真正股东导向的公司来说，这真让我质疑学校里所教授的有效市场假说。

And for a company that has more than one in three people on earth just using Facebook with this track record of of incredible growth and profitability and and really shareholder stewardship, it really makes me question the whole idea of efficient markets that were taught in schools.

像Meta这样的公司，出现如此剧烈的波动本不该发生。

Volatility of that magnitude is just not supposed to happen to companies like Meta.

显然，事后看来，这种波动本不该发生。

And clearly, in hindsight, it shouldn't have happened.

因此，这对我来说是一个错失的机会。

And so that was a missed opportunity for me.

我当时可能太自作聪明了，我记得自己当时想保持非常严谨的态度，觉得尽管直觉上这看起来明显是市场对 arguably 资本主义历史上最优秀企业之一的极度悲观情绪。

And I was probably too smart for my own good in that I remember wanting to be very disciplined and feeling like, okay, even though intuitively this looks to be pretty clearly a point of extreme pessimism in the market on arguably one of the best businesses in the history of capitalism.

但我也不愿投资那些我无法完全理解的公司。

I also did not want to be investing in businesses that I didn't feel like I could fully wrap my head around.

我当时受到巴菲特的启发，他通常会避开科技公司。

And I was taking inspiration from Buffett and how he tends to avoid tech companies.

我记得当时真的很想出手，却为自己没有这么做而感到自豪，因为我没有做过足够的前期研究来充分了解这家公司，也未能对理解他们的护城河感到安心。

I remember really wanting to pull the trigger and being proud of myself for not having done so because I hadn't done the prior research to know the company well enough and just to feel comfortable with understanding their moat.

因此，我现在对Meta的担忧至少是，元宇宙的投资显然正在走向失败，而这正是市场在2022年所担心的，只是当时可能被夸大到了极端程度。

And so the concern now with Meta that I have at least is that the metaverse investments are pretty clearly looking to be a flop, which is what the market was worried about rightly in 2022, maybe just to an extreme extent.

而现在，你看到他们拥有了第四大语言模型。

And then now you're looking at them having the fourth best LLM.

但不幸的是，我不确定拥有第四大模型能让他们走多远。

And unfortunately, I'm not sure having the fourth best is gonna take them very far.

因此，今年早些时候，有很多新闻报道称他们与顶尖的AI研究人员签订了合同，这些合同的薪酬之高，甚至会让一些世界上最著名的运动员感到羞愧。

And so there were all these headlines earlier this year about them signing top AI researchers to contracts that would honestly make some of the most famous athletes in the world blush to how much they were paying these people.

然而，我们却并未看到这些巨额投入带来任何回报，就像元宇宙投资一样。

And then yet, we just really have not seen the payoff from all that spending just like with the metaverse.

这对我来说是一个小小的警示信号。

And that's a little bit of a yellow flag to me.

所以，我认为你可以这样看待：好吧。

So I think you could look at this and say, okay.

Meta正在经历一次转型。

Meta is undergoing a phase shift.

它不再是曾经那种轻资本的业务，因为它正在对未来进行巨额押注。

It's not the capital light business it once was as it's making these huge bets on the future.

但到目前为止，他们在元宇宙上的这一赌注完全没有取得进展，看起来确实是个无底洞。

But so far, one of those bets with the metaverse has really gained no traction and does look like a money pit.

而在他们大力投资的另一个领域——人工智能上，他们显然已经落后了。

And then with the other area they've invested significantly into with AI, they are pretty clearly a laggard.

因此，很难说他们在这一领域的投资最终能带来多大回报。

So it's hard to say to what extent their investments in that area are gonna pay off for them.

尽管我确实听到你的观点，从某种意义上说，他们实际上已经将人工智能商业化了近十年。

Even though I I do hear your point that for really, in a way, they've been monetizing AI for something like a decade now.

但对我来说，这属于‘太难判断’的范畴，因为他们正在两大核心领域大量投入资本。

And just for me, I think it falls into the too hard bucket of, you know, there's two core areas that they're dumping capital into.

我们必须记住，投资的关键在于未来的资本回报，这将决定我们作为股东的体验，而不是历史上的资本回报——尽管后者在这情况下显然非常可观。

And the thing we have to remember with investing is it's the future returns on capital that will drive our experience as shareholders and not necessarily the historic returns in capital, which are obviously very, very attractive in this case.

因此，这似乎是一个资本密集度正在根本性变化的业务。

And so it seems like a business where the capital intensity is fundamentally changing.

这未必是坏事，但它意味着，今天投资Meta，其性质可能与十年前截然不同。

And that doesn't have to be a bad thing, but it just means that buying Meta today is potentially a very, very different type of business than it was like a decade ago.

因此，我不会说我在做空Meta，但我想稍微提出一些不同意见，指出随着资本密集度的上升——这一点其实也适用于所有七家科技巨头，包括我们投资组合中的Alphabet。

And so I'm not gonna be here to say that I'm shorting Meta, but just to provide maybe a little bit of pushback and just to say that as the capital intensity scales up, which is something you could say really about any of the mag seven companies, including our portfolio company, Alphabet.

随着规模效应的规律持续发挥作用，考虑到它们现有的规模，找到能够真正产生重大影响的资本再投资机会变得愈发困难。

And as the law of large numbers continue to kick in, given their existing size, it's how difficult it is to find attractive opportunities to redeploy capital that actually move the needle.

我完全可以想象，在未来十年里，Meta的业绩可能会表现平平，但我现在感觉有点看空。

I could easily imagine over the next decade that Meta would produce somewhat mediocre results, but I'm just feeling a little bearish.

我不知道。

I don't know.

克莱，是的。

Clay Yeah.

我的意思是，你的观点确实很有道理。

I mean, your points are certainly well taken.

关于阿斯沃斯·达莫达兰发布的末日情景分析，你并没有像2022年底那样获得投资者当时所享有的低价位。

To the point about the doomsday scenario that Aswath Damodaran published, I mean, you aren't getting the bargain price that investors were getting in late twenty twenty two.

但有时，好的投资就是专注于打好基础安打，避开失败者。

But sometimes good investing is all about just trying to hit these base hits and just avoiding the losers.

所以，如果你能持续以合理的价格买入优秀公司，我认为这将为许多投资者带来良好回报。

So if you can consistently pick up great companies at fair prices, then I think that will fare well for a lot of investors.

但关于元宇宙，正如斯蒂格常说的，资本主义是残酷的。

But to the point on the metaverse, as Stig likes to say, Capitalism is just brutal.

我认为，我们已经从对元宇宙的投资中清楚地看到了这一点。

I think that's exactly what we've seen with the bets on the metaverse.

Meta 可以成为一个绝佳的案例，说明企业所投入的许多项目最终根本不会成功。

Meta could be a great case study that can illustrate that many projects a business will work on just simply won't work.

但那些成功的项目所带来的回报，将数倍于失败项目的损失。

But the ones that do work will make up for the losers many times over.

我完全理解资本密集度的担忧。

I totally get the capital intensity concern.

这是一个合理的风险，你必须对管理层以及扎克伯格抱有极大信心，相信他们对这笔支出所能获得的回报有清晰的认知。

It is a legitimate risk and you are putting a lot of faith in management and Zuckerberg and understanding the returns they believe they're going to get on this spend.

而且这些数字简直大得难以置信。

And the numbers are just unbelievably large.