比特币正在重建金融体系 | 安德鲁·霍恩斯

通货膨胀是全球制度性盗窃的最大形式。作为信贷投资者，如果你仅能收回本金，那你的处境将极其脆弱。通过向接受比特币作为资本资产的借款人提供更优融资条件，即便少量比特币也能显著改善信贷风险，并使资产在通胀时期增值而非贬值。若我们将这些比特币激励机制融入公共机构，难道不能期待这些机构蓬勃发展并发生变革吗？我的意思是，你只需翻开任何英文报纸的头版，就能看到人们正在对美元失去信心的报道。

Inflation is the biggest form of institutional theft in the world. If you just receive par back as a credit investor, you are in a very, very vulnerable position. You can deliver superior financing terms to borrowers that are embracing Bitcoin as a capital asset with a modest amount of it can dramatically improve the credit risk and position the assets to accrete value in inflationary periods rather than to dissipate into into into nothing. If we integrate some of these Bitcoin, incentives into our public institutions, could we not expect that these institutions might flourish and change? I mean, all you have to do is read an English language newspaper and you front page article is that people are losing faith in the dollar.

安德鲁·琼斯，我们又见面了。最近怎么样？

Andrew Hones, we go again. How are doing?

我很好，谢谢。

I'm doing great. Thank you.

很好。感谢邀请我来费城。

Good. Thank you for having me in Philly.

这是我的荣幸，很高兴你能来。

My pleasure. I'm delighted to have you here.

今天的小型巡游很有趣。我们既看到了费城好的一面，也看到了不好的一面。

It's been fun doing a little tour today. Yeah. We've we've seen also seen the good and the bad of Philly.

是啊。

Yeah.

有意思。我之前对费城的印象完全错了。我对它的了解仅限于那些纪录片，里面全是街头吸毒的疯子。我们确实开车去看了那个区域，真的很压抑。

It's interesting. I had a really incorrect perception of what Philly was going be like. All I've really seen of it is the documentaries where you see the drugged out crazies on the street. And we did have a drive and go and see that area of town. And it's depressing.

确实很压抑。

It is depressing.

但实际的城市非常棒，很迷人。我真的很喜欢。这次小游览很酷，你带我看了美国历史上的第一家中央银行。

But the actual city is really nice. It's lovely. Yeah, I really enjoyed it. It was cool having a bit of a tour. You showed me the first central bank in U.

美国历史。

S. History.

没错。美国的第一家银行。

Yep. First bank of The United States.

那真是太酷了。而且它就在你之前用比特币做抵押贷款的那栋大楼对面。

That was very cool. And it's just over the road from the building that you did your Bitcoin backed lending against.

对，没错。这是个很好的象征。

That's right. Yeah. It was good symbolism.

确实如此。非常酷。它们实际上就在马路对面。所以我觉得我们可以从那里开始。

It was. Yeah. Very cool. Like, they're literally right across the street from each other. So I think maybe we should start there.

你想解释一下你做了什么吗？

Do you want to explain what you did?

当然。我们为费城老城区一处多户住宅资产的业主提供了融资方案。这栋建筑最初建得很好，实际上是由三栋建筑围绕后院连接而成，分别建于19世纪的不同时期，都是古老的工业建筑。

Sure. We we provided a financing solution to the owner of a multifamily asset in Old City in Philadelphia. The building was originally built well, there are three buildings that are joined together around a courtyard in the back. And they were built at various times in the eighteen hundreds. They were old industrial buildings.

如今它们被改造成带有裸露砖墙、精美建筑窗户和木地板的阁楼风格住宅。近三十年来一直由同一个家族投资者持有，对他们来说是优质资产。他们不时进行升级改造，当时有一笔约900万美元的贷款即将到期，而建筑价值约是其两倍。

So nowadays they're loft style living with exposed brick and nice architectural windows and wooden floors. It's been owned by the same family investor for at this point going on almost thirty years. So it's been a good asset for them. They've upgraded it from time to time and they had a loan that was coming due on the asset. It was about a $9,000,000 loan, buildings worth about twice that.

我们提供了再融资方案，使他们能够偿还现有抵押贷款，并额外投入约200万美元用于日常维修。他们想翻新部分公共区域，更换走廊地毯，随着单元房腾空更新厨房橱柜。重要的是，我们还增加了150万美元融资额度，用于购买近20枚比特币——当时比特币价格略高于7.5万美元。我们的贷款抵押品包括这栋位于美国革命博物馆对面、距美国第一银行仅几步之遥的优质建筑，所在社区遍布餐厅、精品店和艺术画廊等。

And we provided them with a refinancing solution which enabled them to pay off the existing mortgage, the then existing mortgage, to invest about $2,000,000 of additional capital into the building to make routine repairs. They wanted to renovate some of the common areas, recarpet the hallways, replace the cabinetry and the kitchens as the units turn over. And then importantly, we added another million and a half dollars of value to the financing, which was used to buy just shy of 20 Bitcoin. Because at the time the Bitcoin price was a little bit higher than $75,000 So our collateral for our loan is the combination of this nice building located across the street from the Museum of the American Revolution and just a short walk away from the first bank of The United States. Nice neighborhood, lots of restaurants and boutiques and art galleries and whatnot.

贷款不仅以该建筑为抵押，还有20枚比特币作担保。若资产出现问题，我们比传统贷款机构更具优势——传统机构只能追索该特定资产，尽管优质却存在特殊性，需找到既有意愿又有能力接手整个63个住宅单元和3个商业空间的买家，流动性极低。

It's secured by that building and it's also secured by 20 Bitcoin. And if something were to go wrong with the asset, we think we're in a lot better position than a conventional lender because a conventional lender has to recover only against that asset. And as nice as it is, it's idiosyncratic. You need to find somebody that wants to take on that specific asset that has the means, the ability to do so. It's not liquid.

这种资产不可分割，必须整体承接。虽然像所有实物抵押品一样可靠，但也存在类似局限。而我们拥有双重追索权。

It's not divisible. You can't just take on a little bit of it. You have to take on all 63 units, all three commercial spaces. And, know, it's good collateral just like any physical collateral, but it has limitations just like any physical collateral. We have the ability to recover against that.

但我们还能通过比特币增强资金回收能力，这让我们处于更稳健的境地，因为比特币具有流动性、可互换性、可分割性、全球通用性，并且长期呈上涨趋势。这意味着我们的贷款价值比会随着贷款期限下降——这对贷款来说是独一无二的特性。

But then we also have the ability to augment our recovery with the Bitcoin, which puts us in a far more robust position because the Bitcoin is liquid, it's fungible, it's divisible, it's universal and it tends to go up over time, meaning that our loan to value goes down over the life of a loan, which is which is a unique feature for a loan.

如果你们达成协议时的执行价是7.5万美元，那这显然已经实现了。

And that's obviously already happened if the strike price when you did this deal was 75 k.

是的。

Yeah.

你们这笔比特币投资已经赚了不少。

You're already up quite big on that Bitcoin.

没错。所以贷款价值比已经下降了几百个基点，这非常惊人，因为这笔贷款本身其实还处于只付利息的阶段。

Yeah. So the loan to value has already declined by several 100 basis points, which is remarkable because the loan itself is actually in an interest only period.

所以，

So,

你想想看：我们做的是定期贷款，现在还处于只付利息期。通常你会认为贷款价值比会保持稳定，直到借款人开始偿还本金——那还要等好几年。但由于我们在融资方案中加入了比特币，贷款价值比已经大幅下降了。

I mean, just think about that for a second. We made a term loan. It's in an interest only period. Normally you would think the LTV is going to remain stable until the borrower starts paying principal, which doesn't come for a few years. But because we added the Bitcoin to the financing package, our loan to value has already diminished significantly.

那么

So

你们发放的整个贷款规模有多大？

how big was the entire loan that you did?

大约1250万。

About 12 and a half million.

1250万，其中150万是比特币。

12 and a half, which 1 and a half was Bitcoin.

嗯

Mhmm.

好的。也就是说他们本可以选择向常规贷款机构申请房产抵押贷款。但他们没这么做，你们反而给了比常规渠道更多的贷款额度，还附加了比特币。

Okay. So they would have had the option to go out to a regular lender and get the loan against the property. Yeah. But instead of doing that, you've add you've actually given them a larger loan than they would have otherwise got and added Bitcoin to it.

是的

Yeah.

好的。那么在那段时期结束时，比特币的上涨部分会怎么处理？

Okay. And then at the end of that period, what happens with the upside of the Bitcoin?

我们分享它。

We share it.

你们分享它。是的。所以期限结束时，借款人将无债一身轻，还能获得比特币上涨的收益。

You share it. Yeah. So the person at the end of the term will be debt free in terms of the loan and also get the upside of Bitcoin.

嗯。一部分收益。是的。

Mhmm. A portion of it. Yes.

那为什么不是所有人都在考虑这么做？可能

So why isn't everyone looking at doing this? It may

所有人都在考虑这么做。

Everyone is looking at doing it.

好的。

Okay.

我是说，所有关注比特币的人——当然不是全世界所有人。你知道，就像你我整天打交道的人一样，他们时刻关注着这种资产及其诸多有趣的特质。绝大多数人尚未关注到比特币，但凡是关注的人，我们已经收到了海量的需求——在宣布首期贷款方案后，就获得了数十亿美元的自然借款需求。

I mean, everyone who's tuned into the frequency of Bitcoin, which is not everyone in the world. I mean, you know, Bitcoin as much as you and I interact with people all day long that are focused all the time on this asset and its many, many interesting elements. The vast majority of people are not yet tuned into the frequency, but everyone who has tuned into the frequency, we've gotten a huge amount of inbound demand, several billion dollars of organic borrower demand after having announced this first loan package.

是你们在CNBC上宣布那次吗？

Was that when you announced on CNBC?

对，没错。要知道这是商业地产资产，所以我们收到了大量商业地产项目——嗯，很多多户公寓楼、写字楼、酒店，还有物流设施，一些成熟资产，一些开发中的项目，以及风电、太阳能等能源设施的项目融资资产。

Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, we've gotten you know, it's a commercial real estate asset, so we've gotten a lot of commercial real estate. Mhmm. A lot of multifamily apartment buildings, a lot of office buildings, hotels, but also logistics facilities, some seasoned assets, some assets that are in development, also project finance assets like wind and solar and other energy facilities.

数量庞大——小型企业、中型企业、大型企业都联系我们，希望将融资整合到他们的抵押品中。这完全合理。

A huge number, small businesses, medium sized businesses, large businesses have reached out to us seeking to integrate financing into their collateral. It makes total sense.

所以风险其实只在于比特币的波动性。但由于这些条款跨越数十年，你基本上可以将其列明，几乎可以忽略这种风险。

And so the risk really is just down to the volatility of Bitcoin. But because these terms are over multiple decades, you kind of can just write that out and almost write it off as a risk.

丹尼，我们设计的融资方案不会让比特币承担市价波动风险——这非常关键。目前市场上除我们之外，几乎所有比特币融资产品都内含市价风险。考虑到比特币的波动特性，用具有市价风险的资产为长期项目融资非常困难——要么需要大幅超额抵押（这从融资潜力角度看并非比特币的最佳用途），要么面临被清算的风险（这显然不合适）。

I mean, we've designed the financing facility, Danny, to not have mark to market risk on the Bitcoin. That's a really critical element. Most basically all other Bitcoin financing that's available from any provider in the market except for what we're doing has embedded mark to market risk. And with the volatility of Bitcoin being what it is, it's very difficult to finance a long term project with an asset that is subject to mark to market risk. You either have to dramatically over collateralize it, which is not a great use of Bitcoin from a financing potential point of view, or you run the risk of getting liquidated, which is not suitable.

通过将比特币与具有自身现金流特征的传统实体资产结合，我们能够以这样的方式承贷：即便比特币跌至最极端假设值归零（虽然极不可能），我们仍能确保贷款利息可通过传统资产的现金流支付。我们无需像多数贷款机构那样追求利息最大化，因为协议中还包含比特币收益分成机制。因此在传统贷款条款上我们具有灵活性——利率、摊销计划、纯利息期、提前还款罚金（我们不需要这些），这种灵活性正源于长期共享比特币上涨收益的设计。

So what we do by fusing the Bitcoin with a physical asset, a conventional asset that has its own cash flow profile, we're able to underwrite it in such a manner that we can take the Bitcoin to the worst possible hypothetical outcome, which is that the Bitcoin goes to zero as implausible as that is. And we can say, okay, this loan is still capable of satisfying its interest expense based on the cash flow coming from the traditional asset. And we don't need to maximize interest as most lenders do because we also have this Bitcoin sharing element of the arrangement. So we have flexibility on the conventional loan terms, interest rate, amortization schedule, interest only period, prepayment penalty, we don't need one. And that flexibility is driven by the sharing of the Bitcoin upside over time.

这就是这个提议的核心内容。

So that's the essence of the of the proposition.

所以如果贷款人想提前结清贷款，且没有提前还款罚金，你们这边会怎样处理？你们公司会调整所持有的比特币份额吗？

So if the person who takes out this loan wants to close early, so there's no prepayment penalty. What happens on your end? Do you do you change the amount of Bitcoin upside that you take as a company?

是的。我们鼓励借款人长期持有我们的贷款，因为我们对比特币的长期价值持非常建设性的看法，我们希望与同样看好比特币长期价值的人合作。随着融资结构的年限增长，借款人将获得越来越大的比特币增值份额，而我们获得的比特币增值比例会越来越低。这对我们来说没问题。我们的贷款价值比（LTV）正在下降。

Yes. We encourage borrowers to stay in our loans for a longer period of time because we have a very constructive view on the long term value of Bitcoin and we want to work with people that have a constructive view on the long term value. And so as the years go on in our financing structures, the borrowers stand to earn a larger and larger share of the Bitcoin appreciation and we get a lower and lower percentage of the Bitcoin appreciation. That's okay with us. Our LTV is going down, our loan to value is going down.

这意味着你们的风险正在

Which means your risk is going

降低。意味着我们的风险正在降低。因此我们仍能获得相当不错的信贷风险当前回报，同时对比特币增值的份额会逐步减少。如果借款人因任何情况倾向于提前还款——这些情况可能是生活变故、商业决策调整，或是利率变动导致借款人想再融资等等——

down. Which means our risk is going down. So we're still getting a very nice current return for that credit risk. And we have a gradually reducing share of the Bitcoin upside. If the borrower has circumstances that lead them to prefer to pay early, those circumstances could be anything really, it could be a life event that has a change or a business decision that makes a change, or maybe interest rates have moved to such an extent that the borrower wants to refinance or wants to whatever, whatever the case may be.

他们可以随时选择还清贷款。我们会解除不动产抵押，释放传统资产的抵押权。但比特币必须至少锁定四年。

They can pay off whenever they'd like. And we release the real estate. We release the mortgage on the conventional asset. But the Bitcoin, it has to stay in place for at least four years.

如果你已经自行保管比特币，就知道硬件钱包的麻烦：复杂设置、笨拙界面，以及可能丢失、被盗或遗忘的助记词。但BitKey解决了这些问题。这款由Square和Cash App团队开发的多签硬件钱包，集成了加密恢复系统和内置继承功能，操作直观简单，无需担心助记词问题。

If you're already self custody of Bitcoin, you know the deal with hardware wallets. Complex setups, clumsy interfaces, and a seed phrase that can be lost, stolen, or forgotten. Well, BitKey fixes that. BitKey is a multisig hardware wallet built by the team behind Square and Cash App. It packs a cryptographic recovery system and built in inheritance feature into an intuitive, easy to use wallet with no seed phrase to sweat over.

简单、安全的自我托管，无需压力，时代杂志将BitKey评为2024年最佳发明之一。访问bitkey.world并使用代码wbd可享8折优惠。网址bitkey.world，优惠码wbd。让我夜不能寐的一件事就是比特币冷存储可能出现的关键错误，这正是Anchor Watch的用武之地。

It's simple, secure self custody without the stress, and time named BitKey one of the best inventions of 2024. Get 20% off at bitkey.world when you use code w b d. That's bitkey.world and use code w b d. One of the things that keeps me up at night is the idea of a critical error with my Bitcoin cold storage. This is where Anchor Watch comes in.

通过Anchor Watch，您的比特币将获得伦敦劳合社A+级保险单的保障，所有比特币都存放在其时间锁定的多重签名金库中。因此您可以安心，知道比特币完全投保的同时仍保持托管权。无论您担心遗产规划、租金攻击、自然灾害还是自身失误，Anchor Watch都能提供全面保护。全额保险托管费率低至0.55%，面向美国个人及商业客户。立即联系Anchor Watch获取报价及更多安全保障详情。

With Anchor Watch, your Bitcoin is insured with your own a plus rated Lloyd's of London insurance policy, and all Bitcoin is held in their time locked multisig vaults. So you have the peace of mind knowing your Bitcoin is fully insured while not giving up custody. So whether you're worried about inheritance planning, rent attacks, natural disasters, or just your own mistakes, you're fully protected by Anchor Watch. Rates for fully insured custody start as low as point 55% and are available for individual and commercial customers located in The US. Speak to Anchor Watch today for a quote and for more details about your security options and coverage.

立即访问anchorwatch.com。网址anchorwatch.com。您是否希望不卖出比特币就能获取现金？Ledden让这成为可能。作为比特币抵押贷款领域的全球领导者，自2018年以来，Ledden已发放超90亿美元贷款，并完美保护客户资产。

Visit anchorwatch.com today. That is anchorwatch.com. Do you wish you could access cash without selling your Bitcoin? Well, Ledden makes that possible. Ledden are the global leader in Bitcoin backed lending, and since 2018, they've issued over $9,000,000,000 in loans with a perfect record of protecting client assets.

通过Ledden，您可获得全额托管贷款，无需信用检查或月供，轻松获取美元而不必卖出任何聪（比特币最小单位）。自7月1日起，Ledden仅支持比特币，意味着他们专门提供比特币抵押贷款，所有抵押品由Ledden或其资金合作伙伴直接持有。您的比特币绝不会被借出赚取利息。我最近在Ledden贷款，整个流程异常简便。申请过程不到15分钟，几小时后美元就到账了。

With Ledden, you get full custody loans with no credit checks, no monthly repayments, just easy access to dollars without selling a single sat. As of July 1, Ledden is Bitcoin only, meaning they exclusively offer Bitcoin backed loans with all collateral held by Ledden directly or their funding partners. Your Bitcoin is never lent out to generate interest. I recently took out a loan with Ledden, and the whole process couldn't have been easier. It took me less than fifteen minutes to go through the application, and in just a few hours, I had the dollars in my account.

体验极其顺畅。若需现金但不想卖出比特币，请访问ledden.io/wbd，首笔贷款可享0.25%优惠。网址ledden.io/wbd。就目前而言...我知道你目前只做过一笔，对吗？

It was super smooth. So if you need cash but you don't want to sell Bitcoin, head over to ledden.i0/wbd, and you'll get point 25% off your first loan. That's l e d n iowbd. With the current, I know you've only done one so far. Is that correct?

最终比特币上涨收益的分配比例是多少？如何分割？

What is your share of the Bitcoin upside at the end? How is that split?

嗯，就像任何贷款一样，这取决于信用特征、整体杠杆率、贷款其他条款、利率和分期结构。因此我们没有一刀切的增值分成方案。通常可以说，在贷款期限结束时，我们的目标是与借款人分享比特币上涨收益的40%至60%。

Well, you know, just like any loan, it's dependent upon the credit characteristics, the overall leverage, the other terms of the loan, the interest rate, the amortization structure. And so we don't have a one size fits all appreciation sharing. Generally, would say that at the end of the life of the loan, we aim to share somewhere between 40 to 60% of the Bitcoin upside with the borrower.

这非常酷。当我在CNBC上看到你时，就像我们长期以来讨论比特币作为终极抵押品形式那样。是的。但看着你在电视上向那些人解释时，你能看到他们大脑里的齿轮在转动，试图理解这个概念。也许值得深入探讨一下，为什么比特币实际上是终极的抵押品形式。

That's very cool. When I saw you on CNBC, it was quite like we've as Bitcoin has spoken about Bitcoin being sort of the ultimate form of collateral for a long time. Yeah. But watching you tell those people on TV, you could see the the like cogs turning in their brain as they were trying to figure this out. But maybe it's worth getting into, like, why Bitcoin is actually the ultimate form of collateral.

是的。我是说，我认为CNBC做得非常出色

Yeah. Well, I mean, I think CNBC has done a great job

噢，我同意。

Oh, I agree.

在报道比特币方面。是的。你知道，我认为乔·克南、贝基·奎克和安德鲁·罗斯·索金确实

On covering Bitcoin. Yeah. You know, I think that Joe Kiernan and Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin have really

乔·克南很棒。

Joe Kiernan's great.

他很棒。

He's great.

是的。

Yeah.

他们在金融市场报道领域确实建立了深厚的专业积累，这并非一朝一夕之功。事实上，相关讨论已持续多年。我们必须认可传统媒体的贡献，特别是《财经论谈》的引领作用——难以置信的是，这个电视节目今年正在庆祝其开播三十周年。

And they've really carved out an expertise in covering this within the financial markets that is not just recent either. I mean, this has been ongoing discussions now for some years. So I think we have to acknowledge legacy media and the leadership that Squawk Box. I mean, it's amazing. They're actually celebrating their thirtieth anniversary as a television program this year, as a matter of fact.

《财经论谈》有着悠久历史。比特币作为理想抵押品确实优势显著：总量恒定为2100万枚，目前已有95%进入流通，新供应量极其稀缺。

So long history at Squawk Box. Look, Bitcoin as ideal collateral, I mean, it's so good. You know, it's it's it's finite. It's limited to 21,000,000. Already, we're at 95% of all Bitcoin that has ever been issued has been issued, which makes new supply extremely scarce.

它具有同质性——每枚比特币都完全相同，在弗吉尼亚和越南毫无差别。同时还具备可分割性。

It's fungible. No Bitcoin is different than any other Bitcoin. It's just Bitcoin. It's the same in Virginia as it is in Vietnam. It is divisible.

比特币可轻松分割成1亿份单位，按当前价格计算，最小单位约值0.9美分（从这种角度看分割精度极高）。它没有物理重量便于转移，由全球最大计算机网络通过强力加密保护安全性，并能7×24小时不间断交易。

You can effortlessly divide Bitcoin into a 100,000,000 units, which means that at today's prices, there's the smallest unit, there's about nine of them in a penny, which is pretty finely cut if you think about it from that point of view. It's weightless, so it's very easy to transport from place to place. It's extremely secure, protected by the largest computer network on earth with extremely powerful encryption. It is liquid. It's trading twenty four hours a day, seven days a week.

事实上它可能是全球流动性最强的资产。正因如此，比特币成为跨越时空的价值存储最优选。与其他抵押品相比——比如贵金属（金银）、

It's probably the most liquid asset in the world as a matter of fact. And for all of these reasons it is a superior way to store value across time and space. You compare it to some other forms of collateral. Like let's just go through a couple. You can think of precious metals, gold, silver.

房地产或收藏品（艺术品/葡萄酒等），以及股票债券等金融抵押品。黄金虽然稀缺但非有限——实际上其存量每年增长1.5%-2%，这意味着每36年总量就会翻倍。假设1989年获得一盎司黄金，2025年取出时外观依旧，

You could think of real estate, maybe collectibles, collectibles are sometimes collateral like art or wine, financial collateral like stocks or bonds. With gold, gold is it's scarce, but it's not finite. Actually, as a matter of fact, gold is growing in volume about 1.5 to 2% per year depending on the intensity of new mining. And if something grows at 2% per year, that means that the quantity doubles every thirty six years. So think of it, if received an ounce of gold in 1989 and you retrieved it from the drawer in 2025, it's still beautiful.

金光灿灿分毫未改。但以黄金网络购买力计算，即便美元计价上涨10倍，实际价值已衰减约一半。若再持有35年，其能量至少会再流失半数，甚至更多。

It still has the same gleam and the same design. But in gold terms, it's about half as much of the purchasing power of the gold network, even though it may have appreciated 10 x in dollar terms. And so you think you may have had a good dollar return. In gold terms, it's dissipated half of its energy. And if you hold it for another thirty five years, it will probably dissipate at least another half of its energy, but maybe more.

因为随着金价上涨，之前开采不经济的黄金现在变得有利可图，供应也随之增加。

Because as price of gold goes up, gold that was previously uneconomical to mine is now economical to mine and supply comes online.

没错。而且，如果你想想人工智能几乎让所有事情都变得更简单。那么，认为它会让黄金开采更高效也是合理的吧？比如我们能精确定位黄金位置，或者机器人设备能更轻松地从地下开采，水下设备能从海底获取，太空设备能从小行星上采集。

Yeah. And also, if you think like artificial intelligence is making almost everything easier. Yeah. Isn't it plausible to think that it's going to make mining gold more effective? You know, that we'll be able to pinpoint where the gold is located or that robotic machinery will be able to more easily retrieve the gold from the earth or underwater machinery will be able to retrieve it from the seabed or outer space machinery will be able to retrieve it from an asteroid.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

或者人造黄金。我是说现在已有人造钻石了。如果我们能制造出在各方面都与实物黄金无法区分的人造黄金呢？白银、钯金、铂金都存在同样的风险因素。至于房地产，它确实不错。

Or synthetic gold. I mean, have synthetic diamonds now. So what if we were to have, you know, ersatz gold and indistinguishable for all intents and purposes from physical gold. Silver, palladium, platinum, they all have the same, you know, risk factors there. And, you know, when you come to something like real estate, you know, real estate is is is good.

我的意思是，房地产虽好，但并不稀缺。

I mean, it's good, but it's not scarce.

嗯。

Mhmm.

如果你对比1670年代和现在的波士顿航拍图，会发现这完全是两座不同的城市。比如后湾区，以前真是个海湾对吧？现在成了街区。纽约、洛杉矶、费城乃至全球各地都是如此，特别是迪拜这种地方。

If you look at an overhead map of Boston from the sixteen seventies versus one from today, it's a completely different looking city. You know, like back bay, like a bay, right? Nowadays, a neighborhood. And you look at the same thing for New York City, you look at it for Los Angeles and Philadelphia, anywhere in the world, especially you go to, you know, Dubai.

哦，你看看迪拜和类似地方在七十年代的照片，那里什么都没有，而现在却成了巨型大都市。

Oh, you see the pictures of Dubai and places like that in the seventies and there's nothing there and now Nothing there's huge mega cities.

巨型城市，但不仅仅是在同一片土地上，而是新造的土地。即便土地稀缺，其使用仍受诸多限制，因为有地方分区法规、税收政策、与天气相关的风险（如飓风），地方经济发展方向也可能有多种路径。因此房地产虽是优质抵押品，但并非永恒不变的担保物。

Mega cities, but not just on the same land, new land. Land that's been created. And even if it were scarce, it's still subject to quite a bit of restrictions on its use because you have local zoning rules, you have taxation, you have risks related to weather, hurricanes, local direction of economic development could take many different paths. And so real estate has been good collateral, but it's not timeless. It's not timeless collateral.

我是说，如果你二月份在雅典集市放贷，到现在那笔贷款可能已经历诸多变迁，尽管它依然位于帕特农神庙上方——也就是卫城山顶。然后你再看看葡萄酒这类东西，不可互换，没有两瓶酒是完全相同的；艺术品也不可分割，你总不能切下蒙娜丽莎一角就获得其10%的价值吧。

I mean, if you made a loan in the Athenian Agora in February, it would have gone through quite a lot of changes between now and then, even though it's still right there on top of the Parthenon. So, on top of the Acropolis. And so, yeah. And then, you come to things like wine, not fungible, no one wine is the same as any other art, not divisible. You can't just cut the corner off the Mona Lisa and get 10% of the value.

你彻底毁掉了它的价值，所以只能整体出售。

You've ruined the entire value. So you have to sell the whole thing.

完全没有流动性。对，毫无流动性可言。

It's not at all liquid. No liquidity, yeah.

一点流动性都没有。葡萄酒虽然是液体，但从抵押品角度看其实毫无流动性。比特币则展现出优越特性，尤其与能产生现金流的实体抵押品结合时，能形成良好组合：用现金流支撑债务偿付，基于比特币日益增长的采用率和用例实现增值潜力，并凭借比特币自身特性具备强大的恢复能力。你经营着一家非常成功的对冲基金，

No liquidity whatsoever. I mean, wine is liquid, but it's actually not at all liquid. When you start to think about it from a collateral perspective, Bitcoin really presents superior characteristics that can serve especially in combination with physical collateral that produces cash flow, can really serve to create a nice blend of cash flow to support debt service, appreciation potential based on Bitcoin's growing adoption and use cases and strong recovery characteristics or strong recovery capabilities driven by these characteristics that Bitcoin possesses. So you run a very successful hedge fund,

但你现在又创立了电池金融来做这事。不知道你什么时候开始的，大概几年前吧？为什么要做这个转型呢？

but you now started battery finance to do this. I don't know when you start this, a couple of years ago. Yeah. And why make that pivot?

我认为，我们每个人都只有一次生命，必须去做那些召唤我们的事情，对我来说，最能有效利用时间的事情总是最具激励性的。我个人一直对创新充满兴趣，这几十年来一直是我职业发展的重点。我们在结构化信贷领域完成了许多首创交易，包括首次涉及的地理区域、资产类别、发行人类型和产品特性。特别是在新冠疫情时期，当流动性超级风暴席卷全球时，我再次高度关注通货膨胀问题，研究历史上不同时期、不同地区通胀的影响，并预感到这正是当前形势的发展方向。

I think that, you know, we all have one life to live and we have to do the things that are calling to us and the things that, you know, best use of time is always something that's motivating to me. And for me, I've always been personally really interested in innovation. That's just been a focus of mine professionally over decades now. We've done a lot of first of their kind transactions in the structured credit arena, first geography, first asset class, first issuer type, first features. And around, you know, at the time of COVID, when the liquidity supernova was bursting over the earth, I really just became very focused again on inflation and what historically inflation has done to different places at different times and a sense that that was where this was headed.

作为信贷投资者，通胀是最大的威胁。因为虽然表面上偿还旧贷款变得更轻松——比如2005年借入的1000美元贷款到2025年仍只需偿还1000美元，但众所周知，二十年前的1000美元和现在的1000美元，

And as a credit investor inflation is the biggest threat because, you know, although it's easier and it's a lowering because it becomes so easy to pay off old loans because, you know, if you take a loan for a thousand dollars in two thousand and five and you have to pay off a thousand dollars in 2025, well, everyone knows that what was a thousand dollars twenty years ago,

天壤之别。

Very different.

价值完全不同。所以只要你能耐心等待并支付利息，最终实际偿还金额会大幅缩水。但如果你是投资者，二十年后收回本金时，表面上看似拿回了钱，实际上购买力已大幅下降。而且通胀不仅体现在官方公布的数据上，其加速程度更是关键。

Is very different than what is a thousand dollars today. So if you can just bide your time and pay the interest, then the ultimate repayment is much lower in real terms. But if you're on the other side of that, if you're the investor and you're getting back your principal in twenty years, you say, oh, I got my money back. But as a matter of fact, on a real basis, you've gotten much less. And the extent to which the inflation increases in terms of its rate and it's not just the reported rate.

我们都知道，全球各市场公布的通货膨胀数据其实都是经过人为修饰的数字。

I mean, knows that, you know, what's reported around the world and in different markets are really quite artificial numbers.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

重要的是要从更宏观的视角看待不同资产、不同地区、不同时期通胀的真实情况。我认为未来几年我们将面临剧烈的资产价格通胀。作为信贷投资者，如果仅按面值收回本金，你将处于极其脆弱的境地。事实上，我认为养老金、主权财富基金和保险公司持续配置20%、30%甚至40%资产于信贷领域，这种大规模信贷配置构成了这些投资组合面临的系统性风险，因为它们极易受到通胀侵蚀。那么人们该如何应对呢？

And it's important to take a broader view of what inflation is across different assets, different geographies over different time periods. But to the extent that inflation increases, and I think that we're poised for a dramatic asset price inflation and increase over the course of the coming years. Well, if you just receive par back as a credit investor, you are in a very, very vulnerable position. In fact, would say, look, I go ahead and say that in my opinion, the large credit allocations that are persistent among pensions, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, 20%, 30%, 40% in some instances, overall portfolio allocations to credit present the single largest risk, systemic risk to those investment portfolios because they are so vulnerable to the effect of inflation. And so what are people doing?

他们的做法是在追逐风险。他们说，你看，我知道必须跑赢通胀，所以我要投资越来越高风险的信货，不仅如此，我还要加杠杆放大收益。事实上，我认为市场在这方面已经麻木了——根据我的职业记忆，从2000年我从沃顿商学院毕业初入金融行业起，每次危机本应理性地导致重大信贷损失，但每次都有大量流动性救援资金如骑兵般及时赶到。

What they're doing is they're reaching for risk. They're saying, well, you know, I know that I have to keep ahead of inflation and so the way that I'm going to do that is I'm going to invest in riskier and riskier credit and not only will I do that, but then I'll amplify it with leverage. And as a matter of fact, I think the market has been lulled to sleep in this regard because every crisis over the course of the last, my professional memory, going back to 2000 when I first started in finance and I graduated from Wharton, every crisis, every time there's been a crisis that should have rationally manifested in significant credit losses. What has happened is that the cavalry has rode in with enormous liquidity every time.

而且

And

其中有些事件很容易记住，因为它们备受关注。你指的是

some of them are really easy to remember because they're high profile. Which one were

哪次？我说的是2008年。

you saying? I said 2008.

对，对，那次非常瞩目对吧？2008年。接下来备受关注的可能是欧洲主权债务危机。

Yeah. Yeah. Very high profile, right? 2008. The next high profile one, maybe the European sovereign debt crisis.

之后你可能会想到新冠疫情，那次也非常轰动。但即便是关注度较低的事件，也都获得了额外的流动性支持，比如

After that, you might think of COVID. That was very high profile. But even the lower profile ones, they all were met with additional liquidity like

像硅谷银行这类事件

These things like Silicon Valley Bank and

是啊，甚至是恒大。如果你还记得那些话，现在很难记起来了。我记得

Yeah, or even Evergrande. If you remember those words, they're hard to remember now. I remember

那是一次银行挤兑，对吧？

that was a bank run. Is that right?

嗯，那是中国房地产的问题。

Well, it was the Chinese real estate.

哦，当然。抱歉，是的。

Oh, of course. Sorry. Yeah.

没错。整整两周，所有财经媒体都屏息报道，说这将是煤矿中的金丝雀（预警信号）。

Yeah. And for two weeks, it was breathlessly commented on all financial media that this was gonna be the canary in the coal mine.

这是两三年前的事了。

This was two or three years ago.

是的，我想大概是2021年，具体时间记不清了，但中国人民银行当时注入了大量额外流动性。这些流动性注入——硅谷银行、土耳其里拉危机、意大利主权债务危机、恒大，我们还能再列举五到十个案例——它们的作用是让偿还旧债变得容易得多，因为货币量增加导致资产价值上升。人们虽然得到了偿还，但实际获得的金额已大幅缩水。这让市场产生了利用杠杆投向风险更高信贷的意愿，因为我们尚未真正看到实际信贷损失带来的负面影响。

Yeah, I think it was 2021 maybe, or I can't remember exactly when, but the PBOC came in with significant additional liquidity. And so those liquidity infusions, Silicon Valley Bank, Turkish lira crisis, Italian sovereign debt crisis, Evergrande, and we could name another five or 10 beyond that. What they do is they have the effect of making it way easier to repay old debt because the quantity of money has increased and therefore the asset values increase. And so people get paid off, but in real terms, they're getting paid off in greatly eroded amounts. And so it's lulled the market into this willingness to point toward riskier credit with leverage because we haven't really seen the negative effects of actual credit losses.

他们本质上是在掠夺民众以维持信贷市场的运转。

And they're essentially stealing from the population to keep these credit markets afloat.

是的。我是说，通货膨胀是世界上制度性盗窃的最大形式。

Yeah. I mean, inflation is the biggest form of institutional theft in the world.

嗯。所以我在想——虽然不想说得太夸张——但你认为比特币真的能拯救信贷市场吗？

Mhmm. So when you think about I don't wanna be too hyperbolic here, but do you think that Bitcoin can actually save the credit market?

噢，当然可以。我的意思是，只要将哪怕少量这种极度稀缺的资产整合进信贷合约中，并以一种能让你不是做一日或一周的短线操作，而是基于该资产的现金流特性进行四年、八年、十二年甚至更长期布局的方式安排承销。比特币潜在的升值空间本身就是对抗通胀风险的绝佳平衡器。它让作为信贷投资者的你实际上能在资产选择上更审慎——因为你不需要像传统投资者那样必须通过追逐最高风险或加杠杆来最大化收益。你拥有了一个更强大的新工具，那就是比特币。

Oh, definitely. I mean, if you integrate even just a modest amount of this profoundly scarce asset into credit contracts and you position the underwriting in a way that you can make not a one day journey or a one week journey, but you can make a four year, eight year, twelve year journey based on the cash flow characteristics of the asset, let alone longer. The extent to which the Bitcoin is poised to appreciate is an excellent, excellent counterbalance to the risks of inflation. And what it enables you to do as a credit investor is to actually be more virtuous in your asset selection, in the sense that you don't need to maximize the return as a conventional investor must do by reaching for that biggest risk or amplifying it with leverage. You have a new way more powerful tool, which is Bitcoin.

游戏规则就是要中长期持有比特币。实现这一目标的最佳方式其实是专注于高质量信贷投资，这可以通过提供更优惠的条款来实现，比如降低利率、延长摊销期、延长只付息期限、取消提前还款罚金等。这样你就能为那些将比特币作为资本资产的借款人提供更优越的融资条件。这背后的驱动力正是围绕共享比特币升值利益的共识。

And the name of the game is to stay in the Bitcoin position for the medium to long run. The best way to do that is to actually focus on high quality credit investments, which you can achieve in part by delivering more favorable terms, like reduced interest rates or longer amortization periods, longer interest only periods, no prepayment penalties. So you can deliver superior financing terms to borrowers that are embracing Bitcoin as a capital asset. And what that's driven by is this alignment of interests around sharing in the Bitcoin appreciation.

这确实令人难以置信。稍微岔开一下——你刚才说认为未来几年通胀会卷土重来且来势汹汹。这个判断的依据是什么？具体会如何发生？

That's pretty incredible. Just a very quick tangent. You said a minute ago that you think inflation is going to come back in a serious way over the next few years. Where does that come from? How?

因为很明显，美国的通胀已经从——虽然我记不清具体数值——大概8%或9%的CPI峰值回落到了3%左右。你认为通胀会从哪里卷土重来？是觉得他们会再次大规模印钞吗？

Because obviously, inflation has come down from I don't remember exactly what it got to in The US, but eight or 9% or something like that quoted CPI. It's back to around three. Like, where do you think that inflation is going to come back from? Do you think they're going to print a load of money again?

是的。听着，计划A就是将债务货币化。计划A的首要规则就是无人讨论计划A。所以你永远不会看到任何央行的行长站在讲台后说，我很高兴地报告上个季度的通胀进展非常顺利。我们已使你的储蓄贬值6.5%，而且这种情况将持续下去。

Yes. I mean, Look, plan A is to monetize the debt. Rule number one of plan A is that no one discusses plan A. And so you're never gonna see the central bank president of any central bank stand behind the podium and say, I would like to report that the inflation has gone very well for the last quarter. We have ruined your savings by 6.5% and it will continue.

你永远不会看到这一幕。你将看到的是他们会说，我们正在全力对抗通胀。我们动用了这个工具、这个计划、这个缩写词。如果你看这份报告，你会发现情况正在改善。

You're never gonna see that. What you're going to see is they're gonna say, we're fighting it. We're fighting it with everything we have. We've brought in this tool, this program, this acronym. If you look at this report, you can see that it's improving.

如果你看这份报告，这是我们正在关注的。但指标正在变化，人们紧盯着每个字眼。他们甚至发布美联储会议纪要的红线版本，说‘哦，删除了‘非常’这个词，替换成了‘有些’。我们从中解读出什么？我们应该解读出的是计划A仍在继续，债务货币化或多或少仍在持续进行。

If you look at this report, this is the one that we're watching. But the indicators are shifting and people are hanging on every syllable. They even release a red line of the Fed minutes and say, oh, well, deleted the word very and replaced it with somewhat. What we interpret from that? And what we should interpret from that is that the plan A is continuing and that the monetization of debt is continuing more or less uninterrupted.

1981年，我们的联邦债务为一万亿美元。现在已达到37万亿美元——可能我没注意，也许已经是38万亿了，这完全有可能。但这还不是重点，因为我们还有17.4万亿美元的社保和医保未拨备负债。这些债务将在2034年到期，但考虑到生活成本上涨，很可能提前到期。

1981, we had a trillion dollars of funded federal debt. Now we're at 37,000,000,000,000. Maybe I haven't looked, maybe it's already 38, could easily be. But that's not hardly the story because we have $174,000,000,000,000 of unfunded liabilities at social security and Medicare. Those are coming due 2034, but with cost of living increases could very well come due sooner.

而这还只是美国的情况。我们甚至还没讨论其他各地类似的处境。放眼全球债务国家的整体图景，资本充足的国家寥寥无几，而背负巨额债务的国家却比比皆是。从历史视角来看，不幸的是，货币发行权长期被严重滥用。而实行稳健货币的时期总是短暂且罕见的。

And that's just The United States. We're not even talking about similar circumstances in any number everywhere. You look at that big picture of, indebted countries and the ones that are properly capitalized are very small and the ones that have enormous debt burdens are very, very large. And then if you just take a step back and you think about this historically, I mean, unfortunately, the power to produce money has been something that has been badly abused over long periods of time. And intervals of sound money are short and they're few and far between.

看看罗马时代货币贬值的例子，整个过程持续了一百五十年。当时贬值速度较慢，每年约5%。但这受限于他们的工业能力——获取更多铜矿、将铜精炼到能熔合白银的程度、铸造新硬币并流通到民间。当然，那时没有飞机火车汽车来快速运输这些钱币。

You look at the Roman era and the debasement of Roman coinage. I mean, took one hundred and fifty years. It debased at a slower rate, 5% or so per year. But that's because they were limited by the industrial capacity to obtain additional copper, refine the copper to a point where they could then melt the silver, mix it with copper, strike it as a new coin and get it all the way back out into the population. Of course, they didn't have airplanes and they didn't have trains to easily transport these coins or cars.

他们只能用当时的技术水平运输货币，所以花了一百五十年。但观察后来历次通货膨胀，比如西班牙在新大陆发现大量金银后发生的通胀，本质上都受限于当时的工业能力。什么是当时的工业能力？就是从新大陆驶回欧洲的船只载货量，以及这些船返航所需的时间。

They had to transport them with the technology that was available to them at that time. So it took one hundred and fifty years. But as you look at all of the inflations in the subsequent periods, you look at the Spanish inflation that occurred after the discovery of so much gold and silver in the new world, it was basically limited by its industrial capacity at the time. What was its industrial capacity? The stowage capacity of the ships that they were sailing from the New World back to Europe, and how long it took them to bring those ships back from the New World to Europe.

他们抵达后，受限于所需的时间长度。实际上，通货膨胀最初在伊比利亚半岛更为严重。然后因为

And once they arrived, they were limited by the length of time that it would take. So actually, the inflation was worse at first in Iberia. And then because

因为那里是船只停靠的地方。

that's where the ships landed.

因为那里是船只停靠的地方。随后影响辐射至欧洲其他地区。说到印钞机，那在印刷技术方面是个重大进步——我是说，在'制造'金钱方面确实是重大突破，字面意义上的'造钱'。

Because that's where the ships landed. And then it radiated out through the rest of Europe. And when you come to the money printer, that was a big advance in terms printing press. I mean, that was a big advance in terms of making money, literally making money, right? Manufacturing money.

但即便如此，仍需用车辆将成捆的货币运输出去。二十世纪出现了指数级通货膨胀，而此前从未以如此速度增长。如今进入二十一世纪，我们制造货币的工业能力边际成本已降至历史最低。

But then again, you still had to transport it in bundled packages by cars. And you saw in the twentieth century exponential inflations. Whereas prior to that, they really were not growing at that rate. And now we're in the twenty first century and our industrial capacity to make money at this point is at the lowest marginal cost that it's ever been.

真的就是点一下按钮的事。

It's literally a click of a button.

没错，按个键。通过央行数字货币（CBDC），你能以微不足道的代价轻易引发通胀，甚至制造剧烈通胀。我认为这理应受到重大的政治批判与抵制，应成为民主社会每个有识之士的关注焦点。想想CBDC，央行官员们怎么说？他们唯一的弱点就是只能用粗放工具调控经济。

Yeah. Keystroke. And you can trivially inflate in terms of or you can dramatically inflate at trivial expense with CBDCs which I think really deserve very significant political criticism and opposition and should be an area of focus for any thinking member of a democratic society. Because you imagine CBDCs, what do the central bankers say? Their only weakness is that they have blunt instruments to manage the economy.

整体利率适用于所有人。如果他们能针对特定雇主群体或地区设定专属利率...我不认为这是央行体系失败的主因。根本原因在于A计划的第一准则——我们讨论过这点。但有了央行数字货币，他们就能说：'我们可以为个人、家庭、城市、社区或行业设定微观利率'，或者'你的钱要过期了'——这种现象已经出现了。

The overall interest rate, it applies to everyone. And if they could just provide a specified interest rate to one set of employers or one region, well, I don't think that that's the reason that central banking has been a failure. I think the reason is that plan A, rule number one of plan A, we've talked about that. But with central bank digital currencies, you're going to be able to say, oh, well, we have a micro interest rate for even this person or this family or this city or this neighborhood or this segment, this sector or your money is expiring. We're already seeing that.

这已经成为现实了。中国与欧盟试行的人民币，春节后就已经过期了。或者说

That's already been the case. The Chinese yuan with EU on experiment, the money expired after the Chinese New Year already. Or

这就像是另一种刺激经济的方式，实际上并未贬低民众。你只需说，如果在某个日期前不花钱，钱就没了。

And that's like another way of stimulating the economy without actually debasing the people. Instead, you just say, if you don't spend any money by x date, then it's gone.

是啊，但我的意思是，

Yeah, but I mean,

没错。不过从极其消极的角度看，本不该有人规定你何时能花钱、何时不能。

yeah. I mean, in a massively negative way, by the way, there should be no one telling you when you can and can't spend your money.

对，对。不过如果你知道钱会过期，那你就会花掉它。

Right, right. Well, and then if, but if you know it's gonna go, then you're gonna spend it.

当然。

Of course.

所以最终效果很可能是高度通胀而非通缩。再者，他们可能还会限制你的消费方式，比如'你这周红肉吃够了'或'酒精摄入量达标了'——我是说，你应该听说过那个概念，叫什么来着？五分钟城市还是十五分钟城市？对，就是十五分钟生活圈，所有需求都能在十五分钟半径内解决。

And so the ultimate effect is going to be deeply, probably inflationary rather than deflationary. And then again, you might have controls on how you can spend it like, oh, you've had enough red meat for this week or you've had enough alcohol or people, I mean, I'm sure you've heard about that. What do they call it? A five minute city or a fifteen minute city or something that fifteen minute cities. Yeah, you should be able to do everything within a fifteen minute radius.

好吧，现在他们这样说，每多过十五分钟，你的钱就会贬值15%。这简直是场灾难。但当你仔细想想，这种货币可以如此轻易地被增发，同时又如此轻易地控制人们的消费方式，这两者结合，未来极有可能导致严重的通货膨胀。所以我认为，即便我们花时间讨论当前的宏观经济基本面和债务水平，但如果你能从更高视角来看，思考货币实际创造和分配到社会的机制，以及技术可能如何负面影响这一过程，就会很理性地预见我们正朝着那种结局迈进。

Well, now they say like, okay, every fifteen minutes more you go, your money loses 15% of its purchasing power. Like that's a disaster And for when you think about though, the combination of how trivially easy it is to make more of this money and how profoundly easy it could be to control the manner in which people spend their money, it's a bad recipe for very significant inflation in the future. So I think even if you just like, you know, we could talk for a while about the current macro fundamentals and the level of indebtedness, but if you can just like elevate, you know, the altitude of the vantage point and think about it in terms of just the actual mechanism of how money is made and distributed into society and how technology could be used to adversely affect that. I think that it's very rational to anticipate that we're headed toward that kind of outcome right now.

比特币正在疯狂上涨，每次牛市都会迎来新一波投资者，随之而来的是大量新公司、新产品和新承诺。但如果你在这个领域待得够久，就会知道很多故事的结局——有些公司偷工减料、拿你的钱冒险，或者直接消失。这就是为什么在购买比特币时，我只推荐River交易所。他们真正重视客户利益，以安全和透明为核心构建了持久运营的体系。

Bitcoin is absolutely ripping, and in every bull market, there's always a new wave of investors, and with it, a flood of new companies, new products, and new promises. But if you've been around long enough, you've seen how this story ends for a lot of them. Some cut corners, take risk with your money, or just disappear. That's why when it comes to buying Bitcoin, the only exchange I recommend is River. They deeply care about doing things right for their clients and are built to last with security and transparency at their core.

选择River，你可以放心，他们所有的比特币都采用多重签名冷存储，而且是美国唯一能提供储备证明的纯比特币交易所。确实没有比这更好的比特币购买平台了。立即访问river.com/wbd开户，购买比特币可获得高达100美元奖励。网址是river.com/wbd。想知道如何既能减税又能囤积比特币吗？

With River, you have peace of mind knowing all their Bitcoin is held in multisig cold storage, and it's the only Bitcoin only exchange in The US with proof of reserves. There really is no better place to buy Bitcoin. So to open an account today, head over to river.com/wbd and earn up to $100 in Bitcoin when you buy. That's river.com/wbd. What if you could lower your tax bill and stack Bitcoin at the same time?

通过Blockware挖矿就能实现。根据新出台的税收政策，美国矿工可以在一个纳税年度全额抵扣矿机成本。没错，100%全额抵扣。如果你有10万美元资本收益或收入，购买10万美元矿机就能完全抵消税款。

Well, by mining Bitcoin with Blockware, you can. New tax guidelines from the big beautiful bill allow American miners to write off a 100% of the cost of their mining hardware in a single tax year. That's right. A 100% write off. If you have a 100 k in capital gains or income, you can purchase a 100 k of miners and offset it entirely.

Blockware的矿机托管服务让你无需动手就能立即开始比特币挖矿。从矿机安保到低价电力采购，再到矿池配置，他们包办一切。你每天都能以折扣价囤积比特币，还能在报税季省下大笔开支。立即访问mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd开始，每托管一台矿机可获赠一周免费托管和电力。

Blockware's mining as a service enables you to start mining Bitcoin right now without lifting a finger. Blockware handles everything from securing the miners to sourcing low cost power to configuring the mining pool, they do it all. You get to stack Bitcoin at a discount every single day while also saving big come tax season. Get started today by going to mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd. And for every hosted miner purchased, you get one week of free hosting and electricity.

当然，这些都不是税务建议。详情请咨询Blockware：mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd。本期节目由行业巨头Iron赞助，这家纳斯达克上市的最大比特币矿企使用100%可再生能源。Iron不仅为比特币网络供电，还提供尖端AI算力资源，全部由可再生能源支持。我们与创始人Dan和Will合作已久，对其价值观深感钦佩，特别是对本地社区和可持续算力的承诺。

Of course, none of this is tax advice. Speak with Blockware to learn more at mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd. This episode is brought to you by the massive legends, Iron, the largest Nasdaq listed Bitcoin miner using 100% renewable energy. Iron are not just powering the Bitcoin network, they're also providing cutting edge computing resources for AI, all backed by renewable energy. We've been working with our founders, Dan and Will, for quite some time now and have been really impressed with their values, especially their commitment to local communities and sustainable computing power.

无论你对挖矿还是AI算力感兴趣，Iron都树立了行业标杆。访问iren.com了解更多。看来我们确实在朝这个方向发展。我在Alex Gladstein最近的论文中看到关于CBDC的小节，没想到现在有超过100个国家正在积极研究央行数字货币。

So whether you're interested in mining Bitcoin or harnessing AI compute power, Iron is setting the standard. Visit iron.com to learn more, which is iren.com. Well, it seems that we're certainly heading towards it. I I saw in Alex Gladstein's recent paper, he did a small section on CBDCs, and I didn't realize that it's over a 100 countries are actively looking into them right now. Yeah.

显然，他们在几个地方还活跃着。但这现在已非遥不可及的想法。感觉它即将发生。

And obviously, they're they're alive in a couple of places. But this isn't a far fetched idea now. Like, it is it feels like it's about to happen.

确实如此。它即将发生。我是说，亚历克斯是个天才。他是人权事业的杰出代言人，也是比特币在人权中作用的伟大倡导者。

It is. It is about to happen. I mean, Alex is a genius. He's a tremendous voice for human rights and a great advocate of Bitcoin's role in human rights.

目前在英国看到的情况也像是前兆，他们正在推行的数字身份证制度。我认为他们正走在极其危险的滑坡上，感觉他们此刻正竭尽全力效仿中国。

And the stuff you're seeing in The UK as well at the moment is just feels like a precursor to it as well with the digital IDs that they're implementing. I think they're on a hugely slippery slope and it feels like they're just doing everything they can to replicate China at this point.

是的。但在我们讨论英国和中国之前，先继续谈谈亚历克斯。他在最近发表的这篇精彩文章《比特币是自由货币吗？》中写道——该文刚由《民主杂志》发布——他指出比特币的大部分批评者都来自美国或欧洲，这些地区享有巨大的金融特权。

Yeah. But before we go to The UK and China, let's just stick with Alex for a minute. So, you know, he wrote in this essay, this is a great essay that he just published called Is Bitcoin Freedom Money? And it was published by the Journal of Democracy just in the last few days. And he wrote at one point in that essay that most of Bitcoin's critics are located in The United States or in Europe where they enjoy enormous financial privilege.

他们享有的特权不一定是个人财富多寡，甚至仅仅是能接触到各种金融产品。比如股票、债券、信用卡、汽车贷款、小额商业贷款、长期抵押贷款等。

And the privilege that they enjoy is not necessarily how much money someone may have, but even just access to a range of financial products. Like for example, stocks or bonds, credit cards, car loans, small business loans, long term mortgages.

哪怕只是拥有银行账户。

Even just a bank account.

连银行账户都是。当你观察全球约10亿人出生时就享有他所谓的全球储备货币（对应美元、欧元、日元、英镑，或许还有加元、澳元、瑞士法郎），而其余70亿人出生的货币在境外几乎毫无用处。正如亚历克斯·格拉德斯坦指出的，看看马拉维等欠发达地区，当地人最好的储蓄方式要么是快速贬值的本地纸币，要么是极其笨重显眼、会生锈、难以分割的金属板，或是牲畜——你得喂食饮水还面临疾病风险，要变现价值就得宰杀它们。

Even a bank account. And when you look at, you know, about a billion people in the world are born into what he calls a global reserve currency that corresponds to the US dollar, the Euro, the Yen, Sterling, maybe the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Swiss franc. The other 7,000,000,000 people around the world are born into a currency that is practically useless beyond its borders. Yeah. If you look at areas that are less developed in the world like Malawi, as Alex Gladstein has helpfully pointed out, the best way that those individuals have to save is through either local paper currency, which is debasing very rapidly inflating very quickly away the value, sheet metal, which is extremely cumbersome, extremely conspicuous, subject to rust, not really easily divisible, very heavy or cattle, which you literally have to feed in water subject to disease, you know, in order to recoup the value, you know, you have to kill it.

这确实很棒。现在，马拉维的任何人只要拥有一部能上网的手机，就能使用人类已知的最佳投资储蓄工具来抵御通胀。他们享有的权利与明尼苏达州的投资者完全相同。明尼苏达与马拉维毫无差别。还有哪种工具能做到这点？

It's just not good. And now you take that person in Malawi and as long as they have a cell phone with an internet connection, they now have the ability to invest and save in the best tool for investing and saving and protecting against inflation that humanity has ever known. And it's the same exact bundle of rights that someone would have if they invested in Minnesota. Minnesota is the same as Malawi. What else can you say that for?

几乎没有，因为世界上再没有其他事物能跨越如此鸿沟。比特币是极其民主的工具，对人权和全球正义具有深远意义。它让我们完全有理由对人们的使用方式保持乐观。当然，他的文章不仅涉及金融普惠，更关注极权体制下的人权活动家。

Nothing really, because there's nothing else around the world that actually spans that distance. And it's it's it's a profound it's a profoundly democratic instrument. It has very, very strong implications for human rights and for global justice. And I think it gives every reason to be optimistic about the way that people are using it. And of course, his essay is not only about financial access, but it's also about human rights activists that are operating within totalitarian regimes.

还包括那些处理殖民遗留问题的地区，比如他文中讨论CFA货币体系的多哥。在我看来，他是位思想深刻的思考者，也是比特币领域重要而有力的发声者。

It's about places that are dealing with the residue of colonialism like Togo, which he discusses vis a vis the CFA. So very thoughtful individual and a very good and important voice for Bitcoin in my opinion.

完全同意。其实我下周就要就这篇论文和他录节目。几年前我和他一起去过马拉维——那里确实普遍有手机，即便在最偏远的农村也不例外。比特币的获取渠道是切实存在的。

Absolutely. I'm gonna record a show with him next week actually on that paper. And I was in Malawi with him a couple of years ago and like they do generally have mobile phones. We were in rural Malawi in the middle of absolutely nowhere, and still people do have mobile phones. The access to Bitcoin is possible.

当然，他们面临的最大障碍（这么说可能过于笼统）是资本问题。如果身无分文，比特币自然没有吸引力。但比特币的民主化——或许这个词不准确——这种全球无差别的接入方式确实具有革命性。

Obviously, the biggest hurdle they all have saying, Oh, that's a huge generalisation. But a lot of people in these rural areas in Malawi have is just a capital problem. Like if you have no money, you Bitcoin is not interesting to you. Yeah. But I think the democratisation of maybe that's the wrong word, the easy access to Bitcoin and how is exactly the same for me as it is for anyone else in the world is truly revolutionary.

没错。比特币的可分割性很关键，特别是配合闪电网络等技术实现即时低成本转账后。你可以根据需求灵活配置——美国房地产开发商可能将6000万美元比特币纳入5亿资产组合作抵押，这与多哥或马拉维个人储蓄者的情况不同，但逐步积累1000聪、1万聪乃至10万聪的能力是共通的。

Yeah. I mean, the divisibility is helpful because it means and you know, when paired with some of Bitcoin's technology like the Lightning Network facilitating lower cost transfers of Bitcoin instantaneously. You can invest and save in Bitcoin, you know, and you can you can scale it to what your needs are. I mean, a large real estate developer in The United States that wants to integrate Bitcoin into their collateral package of a $500,000,000 portfolio of real estate, maybe they're buying $60,000,000 of Bitcoin collateral and they're actually adding, you know, 500 Bitcoin or a thousand Bitcoin into a structure, that's obviously not what's going to be happening in Togo or in Malawi for an individual saver. It's not what's going be happening in The United States for an individual saver, but the ability to gradually build a thousand sats, 10,000 sats, a 100,000 sats.

很快这些积累就能受益于比特币市场的整体走势。要知道，每个聪的价值都是平等的，无论它身处何种规模的持仓之中。

I mean, pretty soon that will benefit from the overall dynamics of the broader Bitcoin market. You know, one SAT is the same value as any other SAT no matter how many SATs it's surrounded by.

是的。

Yeah.

这本身就是对储蓄技术的一个相当深刻的陈述。

And that's a pretty profound statement in of savings technology.

当我们真正到达那里时，对马拉维的所有居民来说都非常不幸，但对我们来说却是个有趣的时机。因为就在我们抵达马拉维的两周前，政府一夜之间将货币贬值了40%。没有比这更直接的激励了——任何人遇到这种情况，储蓄几乎一夜之间减半，他们都会理解比特币的特性。而且这些地方涌现出许多小型循环经济，看到这些真的很棒。

And when we actually went there, it was very unfortunate for everyone living in Malawi, but it was an interesting timing for us. Because about two weeks before we got off the plane in Malawi, the government overnight debased currency by 40%. And so there's no easier incentive than that. Like anyone who has to deal with that, having their savings cut in almost in half overnight, like they're going to understand the properties of Bitcoin. And there are a lot of little circular economies popping up in these places, which is really cool to see.

确实如此，太美妙了。

It is. It's wonderful.

你想谈谈英国的情况吗？

Do you wanna touch on The UK stuff?

呃，我不确定。我可以说

I mean, I don't know. I could tell

你必须得说。

you You do have to.

是的。我是说，关于英国，我可能会说那种深色切块橙子果酱是我的最爱，因为里面橙子含量更多。这差不多就是我的知识极限了。不，我是说，我有点开玩笑，但情况确实类似——我们今天早些时候讨论过高街，美国称为主街，英国称为高街，那是城镇中心所有商铺曾经集中的地方，全镇人都会去那里。我的意思是，这不仅仅是个方便购物的地方，对吧？那是个...

Yeah. I mean, I think on The UK, I would probably say that the tawny cut orange marmalade is my personal favorite, with the larger amount of orange in it. I mean, that's almost the limit of my knowledge of No, I mean, I'm being a little silly, but I mean, the circumstances are similar in the sense that you and I were talking earlier today about High Street, what they call Main Street in The United States and what they call High Streets in The United Kingdom, center of town where all the businesses once were and where everyone in the town, I mean, it's more than just a place to conveniently shop, right? It's a place to

那是社区活动发生的地方。

It's where community happens.

那是社区活动发生的地方，对吧？友谊、新点子、处理城镇重要行政事务、社交活动。我是说，所有这些不同元素的放松。你知道，随着包裹送货上门和网购的便利，加上新冠后遗症、社交隔离这些大环境因素，我们已经看到这类充满活力的城市走廊大幅减少。有些地方确实吸引大量人流，因为人们渴望那种连接，但数量不够。当你离开大城市，走进小镇的非主要街道时，真的很难找到一个健全的主街或高街环境。我在想，还有什么选择？

It's where community happens, right? Friendships, new ideas, sorting through important administrative matters for the town and socializing. I mean, relaxing all of these different elements and you know, with the ease of getting packages delivered to your doorstep and shopping online and with the hangover from COVID and the social distancing and these broad factors, we've seen a very, very significant reduction in those kinds of vibrant urban corridors. There are some, they attract a lot of foot traffic because people are yearning for that type of connection, you know, but there aren't enough and when you get out of the big cities and you get off of the main streets in the smaller towns, it's really hard to find a robust main street or high street environment. And, you know, I guess what are the options?

嗯，一个选择是我们只能哀叹现状，说'就这样吧'，然后像《头号玩家》里那样，至少我们还能在虚拟高街散步，在亚马逊购物，看着别人的虚拟形象购物。我想这也算一种替代方案。

Well, one option is that we could just bemoan it and say, well, that's that and, you know, ready player one, at least we can walk down a virtual high street and shop in Amazon and see the avatars of other people as they shop. I guess that's an alternative.

在我看来这不是个好替代方案。

It's not a good alternative in my opinion.

是啊，不是最佳选择。但另一个选择是用比特币来强化社区。我认为地方政务会、本地商界领袖、选民和政客都有责任思考：怎样才能为社区注入更多活力？一个方法就是全力拥抱比特币，鼓励当地企业接受、存储并整合比特币，或许可以通过减免许可费、营业执照费或商业税来激励，创建一个比特币自由区，让采用这种协议的人能把更多资金回流到企业——因为比特币持有者渴望建设。我的意思是，比特币社区深处有种强烈的渴望，想要在公民社会和建筑环境上留下印记。

Yeah, but not the best alternative. But another alternative would be to strengthen communities with Bitcoin. And I think that it's incumbent upon local governance councils, local business leaders, local voters, local politicians to say, how could we attract more vibrancy to this community? And one way to do it is to really lean in on Bitcoin, to encourage the businesses that are in the area to accept and save and integrate in Bitcoin to maybe provide them with savings on permits or savings on business licenses or business taxes, create a Bitcoin free zone where people that are embracing the protocol are able to put more money back into the businesses because Bitcoiners want to build. I mean, there's a deep yearning within the Bitcoin community to make a mark on civil society and on the built society around us, built landscape.

显然除此之外，整合比特币的金融解决方案也非常非常强大。假设你有家小餐馆、礼品店或干洗店之类的服务企业，想借5万英镑作为流动资金或购买设备，利率8%意味着每年4000英镑利息。但如果做6万英镑贷款，利率6%，每年利息3600英镑——利息更少，我们用多出的1万英镑为干洗店、肉铺、奶酪店、服装店或任何企业资产负债表添加比特币。现在这家企业就拥有了不相关的储备资产（比特币），能以截然不同且更优的方式应对各种经济形势。

And then obviously on top of all of that, thinking about Bitcoin integrated financing solutions is very, very powerful. I mean, if you have a small restaurant or a gift shop or a service business like a dry cleaner and you wanna borrow $50,000 or 50,000 Sterling for working capital or to purchase some equipment and your interest rate is eight percent, you know, that would be £4,000 of interest per year. Well, what if you did £60,000 of a loan with an interest rate of 6% that would be £3,600 of interest per year. So less interest per year and we use the additional 10,000 Sterling to add Bitcoin to the balance sheet of that dry cleaner or that butcher or that cheese store or that clothing store or whatever the business might be, that accountancy. And now that business has an uncorrelated treasury asset, the Bitcoin, which gives them the ability to manage through different economic circumstances in a way that is way different and way better.

随着时间的推移，它很可能会升值，这将使他们有能力对该业务进行再投资，提供流动性，而业务本身却难以获得流动性。这一切都可以在通过分享比特币上涨收益来降低企业资本成本的同时实现。那么现在你可能会说，如果我们提出一个更全面的方案会怎样，比如马萨诸塞州经济发展局（MassDev）或宾夕法尼亚工业发展公司推出一个计划，宣称要通过注入比特币来振兴全州的主要街道。你只需让时间发挥作用，因为激励机制也非常强大。这样你就会开始看到人们重新粉刷店面。

It's likely to appreciate over time, which is going to give them the ability to reinvest in that business, give them liquidity, whereas the business itself is hard to obtain liquidity from. And it can all be done while at the same time improving the cost of capital for the business motivated by sharing in the Bitcoin upside. And so now you could say, well, what if we articulated a more comprehensive approach, Massachusetts Economic Development Authority, MassDev or the Pennsylvania Industrial Development Corporation comes with a program to say, we're gonna revitalize main streets across the Commonwealth by infusing them with Bitcoin. And you just let time do its thing because the incentive structure is very powerful as well. And so you're going to start to see people are going to repaint their facades.

你会开始发现他们将完全无法容忍涂鸦。当环境整洁时，人们也不愿在上面涂鸦。这就是破窗理论。纽约那位警察局长叫什么来着，比尔·布拉顿之类的，他有个观点：必须快速修补破损的窗户，因为一扇破窗会招致更多破坏，这是个恶性循环。所以当你能保持环境良好时，就会形成良性循环，但这需要持续维护。

You're going to start to see that they're not going to tolerate graffiti at all. And when people, when it's nice, people don't wanna put graffiti on it. It's the broken windows theory. What was the name of the police commissioner in New York, Bill Bratton or something and you know, he had this idea that, you have to repair the window quickly because if the window is broken, it just invites the next window and the next, you know, and it's a slippery slope. And so when you can keep things up in a nice condition, then it's a virtuous cycle, but it requires maintenance.

我认为这类举措的社会效益是巨大的。英国目前正经历一场激烈的文化战争，本质上我认为是英国人对失去共同文化的担忧。而商业街的衰败对此影响不可小觑。现在英国各地的商业街都死气沉沉——无论大城市还是小镇，到处都是用木板封门的店铺。

And I think the societal benefits of something like that are huge. There's a huge culture war going on in The UK at the moment over really what I think English and British people are thinking of as like a loss of a shared culture in The UK. And I don't think you can discount how much losing a high street can do that. And high streets across The UK are dead. Like, if you go through any major town or even small town, like, it's just all boarded up shops.

每条商业街上存活下来的基本就是那十来家雷同的店铺。但如果你能复兴真正的商业和社区，这对整个社会将产生极其深远的影响。

Like, there's the same, you know, 10 shops in every high street that managed to survive. But if you could bring back, like, real business and real community, like, that has a pretty profound impact on society as a whole.

确实。在我看来，如今真正繁荣的商业街/主街实际上只有旅游景点。它们依靠特色店铺兴旺，但并不真正服务本地社区，主要是为外地游客设计——让他们购买小饰品、纪念品或艺术品之类的东西，而住在两个街区外的居民日常根本不需要这些。

Yeah. I mean, I think the only high streets, main streets that are really thriving these days, practically speaking, are tourist destinations. Yeah. And, you know, they thrive with specialty shops and they don't really serve the local community. They're really designed for the most part to serve people from away that are visiting and spending money on, you know, a bauble or a trinket or a piece of art or something that if you live two blocks away from there, don't really need on a regular basis.

所以即便是那些繁荣的街区，其繁荣原因在我看来也较为肤浅。我们真正应该思考的是如何建设更有凝聚力的社区。当然，特色商户也有存在价值，这本身也很美好。

So, you know, even the ones that are thriving, they're thriving for reasons that I think are more superficial. And what we really ought to be thinking about is how to build stronger communities. Of course, there's a space for specialty merchants. Right? That's that's wonderful too.

这可以构成良好零售业态的一部分。但我们需要思考如何面对面满足社区需求——如今随着科技发展，越来越多事物变得非接触化，因此我们必须有意识地把人们聚集起来。

And that can be part of a good retail mix. But, you know, we need to think about how to serve the needs of a community in person because with technology these days, so many things are becoming, you know, less and less in person that I think we have to be intentional about bringing people together.

回到你们打造的这个产品。目前你们只完成了一栋建筑，一栋商业建筑。你说收到了大量咨询，但实际落地的只有这一个。为什么进展不够快？是资金方面有问题吗？

So back to this product that you you've built. You've done one building so far, one commercial building. You said you've had a ton of inbound, but so far, it's still just the one that's actually out there live in the world. Why have you not been able to move quicker? Is there a problem on the capital side?

是的。我们有几个项目预计在未来几个月内完成融资。这些项目我们已经筹备了一段时间，但你说到点子上了——本质上，那些已经接受比特币理念的借款人与传统思维之间存在巨大鸿沟，他们意识到自己持有的资产增长速度跟不上通胀。

Yeah. We have several that I anticipate that will finance over the next few months. Okay. We've been working on them for some time, but I mean, you've hit the nail on the head. I mean, basically, there's an incredible imbalance between borrowers who have already tuned into the Bitcoin frequency and realize that their assets that they hold are not growing as quickly as inflation.

对他们而言，这是将熟悉资产中的部分权益从法币重新计价为比特币的工具，非常强大。因此需求极其旺盛，这让我们能优中选优筛选信贷项目。但目前大型机构信贷投资者的参与度还远远不够。我认为这种情况会改变，因为去年特朗普政府对比特币的政治接纳，以及全球范围内的类似趋势。

And that this is a tool for them to redenominate some of the equity in the assets that they know and like out of fiat and into Bitcoin. Very powerful tool. So there's an enormous amount of demand, which lends itself to exceptionally good credit selection and everything else like that. And it's just been met with, you know, not the right degree of engagement on the part of large institutional credit investors as of yet. Now, I think that's going to change due to factors like the enormous political embrace of Bitcoin that has unfolded over the course of last year by the Trump administration, but also elsewhere around the world.

和两三年前相比简直是天壤之别——明确地说那时是黑夜，现在才是白昼。越来越多人意识到通胀正在累积并寻求解决方案，但人们不愿讨论通胀这个话题，它令人不适又无能为力。

I mean, it's like night and day compared to where we were two years ago or three years ago, you look back and it's just just to be clear, that was night and this is day. And you know, then again, there's everyone realizing more and more that, you know, the inflation is accumulating and wanting to find a solution, But people don't, you know, people don't like to talk about inflation. It's very uncomfortable topic. It's not very pleasant. There's nothing that you can do about it.

虽然比特币可以进入你的生活，但没人能阻挡通胀洪流，这导致了一种卡夫卡式的宿命感。我认为信贷投资者尤其需要的是道义勇气——作为同行我也要说：

I mean, is, right? Can Bitcoin into your life, but, you know, there's nothing that you can do to stem the tide of inflation. So it lends itself to this kind of Kafkaesque, you know, fatalism. But I think that for the credit investors in particular, what credit investors need as an industry right now is moral courage. They need to be able, we need, I'm a credit investor too.

我们必须承认，虽然账面上投资组合按面值计价看似完好，但实际上受通胀这个与信贷决策无关的外部因素侵蚀。这不是我们选择的特定资产问题，而是笼罩在所有资产上持续印钞的阴云。

We need to be able to say, yes, our portfolios are marked at par. Yes, it appears that our value is intact. But unfortunately it's not really intact exogenous to factor of inflation that doesn't have to do with the credit decisions that we've made. It doesn't have to do with the specific assets that we've selected. It has to do with this broad cloud that's hanging over everything and just raining down more money as time goes on.

如果我们不转向，这些投资组合的实际价值将遭受实质性侵蚀。这很严重，因为机构投资者需要信贷投资来获取收益——这无可厚非，毕竟人生有限，养老金受益人需要现金流支付。

And if we fail to pivot, we are baking in the cake a very substantial erosion in the real value of these portfolios. And it's a problem because people need credit investments as institutional investors because they need income. And there's nothing wrong with that. People need income because life is not forever. And you have to pay income associated with pension beneficiaries.

如果你是一家慈善基金会或捐赠机构，你需要资助重要项目，如研究和奖学金等。如果是主权财富基金，你可能需要为国民的医疗、公共建筑或学校等支出。对于家庭而言，你可能需要收入来平衡家庭财务。因此不能只投资于非收益性资产，这不是理性的选择。

If you're a charitable foundation or endowment, you have important projects that you have to support research and scholarships and things like that. If you're a sovereign wealth fund, maybe you're making payments for medical care of your population or public buildings or schools or whatever the case may be. If you're a family, you may just need income to balance your own household finances. So you can't just invest exclusively in non income producing assets. That's not a rational response.

基于这个框架，问题在于：在当前通胀环境下，我们该如何修复信用以充分防御？我认为机构投资界会越来越频繁地面对这个问题。那些能更快找到优质工具和方法的人——我们亲眼见证过——若能以开放态度严肃思考这个问题，就能让受益人获益并保护他们。而那些等到为时已晚的人，将导致警察、消防员和教师（尤其是教师）无法获得他们应得的保障。

So with that as a frame, the question is, okay, how do we repair credit in order to be adequately defended in this inflationary setup that we have? And I think that the institutional investment community is going to be coming to that question more and more and more frequently. And the ones that come to it faster and there are good tools and good approaches. We've seen them firsthand ourselves, but the ones that come to that question faster and engage it with intellectual seriousness and with an open mind are the ones that are going to benefit their beneficiaries and protect their beneficiaries. And the ones that wait until it's too late, it's gonna mean that there are police officers and firefighters and teachers, especially teachers that are not getting what they signed up for.

我还想补充一点：虽然常有人说'每个人得到比特币的价格都是应得的'，但这不适用于养老金受益人、教师、消防员、警察等为他人奉献一生的人，他们的部分动力来自退休安全保障。由于这些个人并不参与养老金投资决策，而是将信任托付给管理巨额资本的专业资产管理人，这些管理人有责任认真应对通胀问题，并思考'比特币能如何帮助？若非比特币，又该采取何种抗通胀策略？'让我们在思想竞技场上共同探讨。

And I'll just mention one other thing, which is that sometimes you hear, everyone gets Bitcoin at the price that they deserve, but that doesn't extend to the pension beneficiaries, the teachers, the firefighters, the police officers, and anyone else who gave their lives in service to others in part motivated by the safety of retirement and a secure retirement. And since those individuals are not actually making the decisions associated with how those pensions are being invested, but in fact, they are placing their confidence in the professional asset managers that are responsible for deploying those large pools of capital. It is in fact the responsibility of those professional asset managers to seriously engage on the topic of inflation and to ask themselves, how can Bitcoin help? And if not Bitcoin, then what is the strategy to defend against inflation? I mean, let's all meet in the arena of ideas and chat about it.

但我们绝不能避而不谈。有人可能说黄金更好——基于我们先前的讨论，我并不认同。

But what we can't do is just not talk about it at all. I mean, somebody might say, well, gold is better. I mean, I don't think it's better for the reasons that we talked about earlier.

但至少这是个策略。

But at least it's a strategy.

确实是个策略，可以从这里开始。也有人会说股票才是正道。那我们就来讨论不同抗通胀策略（比如木材投资）的合理配置比例——历史上木材确实能抵御通胀。

At least it's a strategy. We can start there. Someone might say, well, equities are the way to go. Okay, well, let's talk about the right proportion of exposure to different inflation combating strategies, timber, timber. Timber historically has kept up against inflation.

或许木材可行，但人们的生活方式可能会改变...这至少是个策略。但我认为比特币是当前非常及时且极具说服力的策略，只需适度配置就能显著改善信用风险，让资产在通胀时期增值而非蒸发殆尽。

Okay. Well, maybe timber, but maybe the way that people are living will change or maybe, you know, I don't know, but that's at least a strategy. But I think that Bitcoin is a very good, timely and compelling strategy and one that with a modest amount of it can dramatically improve the credit risk and position the assets to accrete value in inflationary periods rather than to dissipate into into nothing.

如果这些人现在还不认真对待比特币，那他们就是在玩忽职守。

And if these people aren't taking Bitcoin seriously, they're just not doing their jobs at this point.

他们确实在玩忽职守。

They're not doing their jobs.

观察事态发展会非常有趣。关于这些比特币支持的信贷产品，你认为它应该覆盖从个人抵押贷款到商业地产，乃至整个体系直至政府层面的所有层级，是这样吗？

It's going to be really interesting to see how this plays out. And when it comes to these Bitcoin backed credit products, you think that this should be at every single level from sort of personal mortgages to commercial property and then basically all the way through the stack up to government level. Is that correct?

这是一种适应性极强的金融工具。记得三月份我们讨论过的比特债券吗？它引起了广泛关注，尤其在比特币社区，因为这种理念能引起强烈共鸣——它实在太合理了。

It's a very adaptable financing instrument. I mean, you know, we talked about the bit bonds back in March, which has gotten a lot of attention, especially among the Bitcoin community, because I think it just resonates. It makes so much sense.

就是你当时在比特币政策研究所演讲的时候对吧？那次演讲确实令人惊叹。

This was when you did a presentation at the Bitcoin Policy Institute Yeah. It was incredible.

是的，BPI是个很出色的组织。

Yeah. BPI is a great organization.

不过你当时的演讲精彩绝伦。或许值得——当然不是重现场景——而是重温其中的一些关键要点。

But your your presentation there was brilliant. Maybe it'd be worth obviously not doing the presentation, but going through some of the key points from that.

基本概念是，信用市场由信用评级驱动，许多金融工具的买家都要求最低信用评级。现在一些买家瞄准AAA或AA级的高投资级债券。其他借款方则以投资级BBB为分界线，还有些属于投机级资产。但这些评级在促进资本流动方面起着至关重要的作用，因为许多买家的监管资本要求与这些评级挂钩。银行、保险公司需要为各头寸持有的权益资本，部分取决于其所持资产的信用评级。

Well, the basic idea was, you know, credit markets are driven by credit ratings and many buyers of instruments require a minimum credit rating. Now some buyers are targeting AAA or AA or high investment grade. Other borrowers, they have a cutoff at investment grade, triple B, some are speculative grade assets. But those ratings play a very important role in facilitating capital flows because many buyers have regulatory capital requirements that are keyed off of those rating levels. Banks, insurance companies, the amount of equity that they have to hold against individual positions is in part determined by the credit rating of the assets to which they take exposure.

这决定了它们作为机构的整体杠杆水平。美国享有很高的信用评级，虽然不如从前。

And so it governs their overall leverage as an institution. The United States enjoys a high credit rating, not as high as it used to be.

我正想说今年早些时候被降级了。

I was gonna say it was downgraded earlier this year, think.

虽然降级但仍属极高评级，且国债市场流动性极佳。财长比森特明确提出重要目标：将未来国债发行期限从短期扩展到更长期限。因为耶伦的做法堪称糟糕的财务管理——当利率极低时，她本应尽可能延长债务期限（比如奥地利发行的世纪债券就是典范），却只发行了三个月期的超短期债券。

Downgraded, but still very high and it's very liquid of the treasury market. And secretary Bissent articulated a very important goal of spreading out the maturity of future treasury issuances beyond just the short end of the curve and out toward longer points on duration. Because what Janet Yellen did, which is really just terrible financial management is when interest rates were extremely low instead of terming out as much debt as she could for longer durations, which for example was done in Austria with that century bond. I mean, what a great bond. They issued a hundred year bond in Austria when interest rates were very, very low.

这对奥地利政府来说是极低的融资成本。

That's very low cost of capital for the government of Austria.

耶伦本可以发行30年期债券，却...

And instead of doing like thirty year bonds, Yellen

只搞三个月期的债券，满脑子都是‘能省就省’的法币思维。特朗普政府上任后，财长贝森表示希望延长债务期限，但不得不接手耶伦政策遗留的问题：大量短期债务即将到期，而美联储当时嘴上说没考虑加息，实际上却在酝酿加息政策。

did like three months, three minute bonds. Like let's get it as cheap as we can. And we'll just keep on, keep on keeping on. And it's such a fiat mentality. And when the Trump administration came in, secretary Besson said, look, he really wants to term out the debt, but he inherited the problems of the Yellen approach, which was that a lot of short term debt was coming due, interest rates were still elevated based on you know, the federal reserve, you know, it turns out that they were thinking about thinking about raising interest rates when they said that they weren't thinking about thinking about raising interest rates.

然后，把它们放进盒子里。那么你能用BIP债券做什么呢？

And, put them in a box. So what can you do with the BIP bonds?

因为他还没能做到，对吧？尽管他说过想腾出一天时间，但至今仍未实现。

Because he's not managed to do that, has he? Even though he said he wanted to turn out a day, he's not managed to do it yet.

嗯，要承担4.5%的十年期债务非常困难，因为你看现在联邦债务的利息支出已经超过了国防预算，锁定这个利率是不可行的。所以你真正需要做的是降低长期利率，然后延长期限。这就是

Well, it's very hard to take on four point five percent ten year debt because you look at the interest expense of the funded federal debt now exceeds the defense budget and it's not feasible to lock it in. So what you really need to do is you need to bring down longer term interest rates and then term it out. Which is

为什么他们一直给鲍威尔施加这么大压力。

why they've been pressuring Powell so much.

给鲍威尔施压。是的。这是在收益率曲线的短端。那么如果我们有一个基于市场的结构来降低利率呢？于是就有了比特债券。我们都看到了比特币在过去12到24个月里对资本市场的强大影响，首先是他们的可转换优先工具，最近又是他们的永久优先证券，其他发行人也使用了类似的证券，虽然流动性不如策略，但还是在构建一个强大的市场，为比特币注入信贷产品的资本市场，这很棒。

Pressuring Powell. Yeah. Now that's on the short end of the curve. So what if we had a market based structure to bring down interest rates, hence the Bitbond. So we all have seen Bitcoin's powerful impact in capital markets over the course of the last twelve to twenty four months with the leadership of strategy, first with their convertible preferred instruments and more recently with their perpetual preferred securities and other issuers as well have used similar securities to less liquidity than strategy, but nevertheless building out a robust market, capital markets for Bitcoin infused credit products, which is excellent.

我认为，如果你加上，那么提案是什么？提案很简单。我们说，好吧，这样，我们发行一种国债，募集资金的90%用于常规政府支出，不管是什么，10%用于比特币。整体利率会低得多，比如1%而不是4.5%。

And I think that, if you added, so what was the proposal? The proposal was straightforward. We said, okay, look, let's do a treasury bond and the use of proceeds will be 90% goes to conventional government spending, whatever it is, 10% goes to Bitcoin. The overall interest rate is much lower. Let's say 1% instead of four and a half percent.

在债券到期时，假设是十年，投资者与债券发行人（这里是美国财政部）五五分成比特币的上涨收益。如果你代入比特币历史上的复合年增长率，会产生异常诱人的回报。而如果比特币归零，投资者仍能按面值100%收回本金，因为他们有美国财政部的全额信用担保。所以不存在本金风险。

And at the maturity of the bond, let's say ten years, investors split the Bitcoin upside with the bond issuer, in this case, the United States Treasury fifty fifty. And if you start to plug in historical Bitcoin performance CAGRs, it produces exceptionally attractive returns. And if you say the Bitcoin goes to zero, well, investors are still going to get paid back a 100¢ on the dollar because they have the full faith and credit guarantee of the US treasury. So there's no principal risk.

而且

And

从美国财政部的角度来看，如果他们每年节省3.5%的利息，十年就是35%。所以即使比特币归零，相对于债务成本他们仍有25%的净储蓄。这确实是三赢局面，并且利用了美国国债作为众多金融合约核心抵押品的地位。许多人用国债获取流动性，或出于各种原因质押国债。现在他们说，好吧，我质押国债就能获得4.5%的收益。

from the US treasury's point of view, if they're saving three and a half percent per year on interest over ten years, that's 35%. So even if that Bitcoin goes to zero, they still have a net savings of 25% relative to what their debt cost would have been. And so it's really it's a win win win And it's taking advantage of the position of the US Treasury bond as absolutely central collateral in so many financial contracts. So many people post treasuries to obtain liquidity and post treasuries for many, many different reasons. Right now they're saying, okay, I'll post the treasuries and get that 4.5% yield.

这是一种方式。但这里你可以质押组合获得1%收益，同时还有可能产生10%、15%、20%的回报。而与此同时，政府通过债券发行获得的比特币在债券存续期间的升值速度，将远快于债务本身的增长。因此通过持续发行债券增持比特币，实际上能有效对冲联邦政府资产负债表上的负债。

Okay, that's one approach. But here you could post together as 1% yield, but then have the possibility of generating a 10%, 15%, 20% return. While at the same time, the Bitcoin on the balance sheet that the government obtains through this bond issuance is poised to appreciate over the life of the bond issuance way faster than the debt is otherwise going to increase. And so you effectively defees the liability on the balance sheet of the federal government by adding Bitcoin through ongoing debt issuances.

这似乎是另一个显而易见的优势，正如你所说，他们可能借此化解债务。对于当前考虑购买长期债券的人来说，通胀是最大风险。如果预期回报只有4.5%，你可能没动力购买30年期债券。但加上比特币的附加收益，其上涨空间几乎肯定能跑赢通胀。

It seems like another very obvious win as something they could actually implement because like you say, they can potentially defuse the debt with this. Likely, if you're someone who's looking to buy long term bonds at the moment, inflation is the biggest risk in that. And if you think you're going to get four and a half percent back, you're probably not going be incentivized to buy a thirty year bond. But with a Bitcoin kicker on it, the upside of that would almost certainly outperform inflation.

没错。

Right.

这有什么风险？是否存在形象风险——如果美国这么做，会让人觉得他们对美元失去信心了？

What are the risks to it? Is there a optics risk in the sense that if The US did this, it looks like they're losing faith in the dollar?

听着，我不认为这是形象风险。你只要随便翻开英文报纸，头版文章都在说人们对美元失去信心。摩根大通这周还提出了所谓的'贬值交易'策略——买黄金、买比特币。如果政府不愿创造性思考这些解决方案，那才存在形象风险。如果回应是'这里没问题'，那才是问题。

Look, I don't think that that's an optics risk because, I mean, all you have to do is read an English language newspaper and you front page article is that people are losing faith in the dollar. Yeah. And JPMorgan this week came out with the so called debasement trade, buy gold, buy Bitcoin. So, now if we had a government that was unwilling to think creatively about these solutions, then you would have an optics risk. If the response was, well, there's no problem here.

我们继续吧。目前无需采取任何行动，一切运转良好。但事实上，美国联邦政府目前在比特币领域展现出非凡的领导力——特朗普总统、参议员辛西娅·卢米斯、阿拉斯加众议员尼克·贝吉奇，这些围绕美国政府战略拥抱比特币的卓越领导力，让我们完全有理由说：这就是我们战略拥抱比特币的原因。

Let's move along. There's nothing that we need to do. Everything is working fine. But as a matter of fact, we have such exceptional leadership on Bitcoin coming from the United States federal government right now. President Trump, Senator Cynthia Lummis, Congressman Nick Begich from Alaska, such exceptional leadership around the strategic embrace of Bitcoin by the United States government that there's every opportunity to say this is why we are strategically embracing Bitcoin.

这展现了比特币能为我们带来的价值。所以我认为表象并非核心问题。这也回到了我们刚才讨论的社区建设话题——要知道美国有很多爱国人士，我相信世界上许多国家也是如此。

This is what it can do for us. So I don't think that the optics are the main issue. It also is, you know, going back to the community building discussion that we were having some moments ago. You know, there are a lot of patriotic people in The United States. And I'm sure that there are a lot of patriotic people in many countries around the world.

但除了悬挂国旗，普通人能促进所在国家福祉的方式并不多。而创建例如'比特债券'的构想（顺便提一下，原始提案部分内容包含这些债券对美国家庭和投资者免税），能让储户获得真正优质的长线储蓄选择。他们提到'婴儿债券'概念——何不为孩子投资一千美元的比特债券？这样等孩子上大学时，这笔钱就有十八年的增值机会。

But apart from flying the flag, there are not that many ways that the average person can advance the well-being of the country where they live. But the idea of creating, for example, a bit bond where you could say to a saver and and part of the original proposal, by the way, was that these bonds would be tax exempt for American families and American investors. So that this would become a really superior form of long term savings. You know, they refer to baby bonds. You know, you wanna do a baby bond, well, why don't we do a thousand dollars in a bit bond for junior so that when junior is going to college, now it has the opportunity to grow over the course of this eighteen year period of time.

与此同时，你正在帮助美国政府减轻债务负担，因为收益是与政府共享的。这是极具爱国精神的投资表达方式。

And in the meantime, you're defeasing the debt of The United States because you're splitting the upside with the United States government. It's an extremely patriotic expression of investing.

如果政府考虑此类方案，这也是建立首个比特币战略储备的预算中性方式。

And if you're the government looking at doing something like this is also a budget neutral way of acquiring Bitcoin first strategic Bitcoin reserve.

没错，实际上这超越了预算中性——具有增值效应。因为提案建议将现行利率降至足够低位，即使比特币归零，净储蓄仍高于政府当前边际债务发行的支付利率。

Yes, it's actually it's one step beyond budget neutral. It's accretive because the proposal here is to reduce the current interest rate to such an extent that the net savings, even if the Bitcoin goes to zero is greater than the current interest rate that the government is paying on marginal debt issuance.

在你与马修·佩恩合著的提案中，是这么设计的吗？

And in the proposal that you put forward, did a paper, was it with Matthew Payne?

是的，他很棒。

Yeah. He's great.

他确实很棒。债券中比特币相关部分的占比是多少？

He is great. What was the percentage of the, like, the Bitcoin kicker part of the bond?

10%。

10%.

10%。好的。有没有可能在这种债券中投入一定数量的比特币，最终收益率却是0%？

10%. Okay. Is there an amount of Bitcoin you could put in a bond like this that would actually yield 0%?

是的。我觉得有可能。这取决于投资者。要知道，资本市场的魅力就在于，一旦进入资本市场，你可以尝试不同的分级、不同的期限、不同的定价组合，很自然地就会发现资本市场中哪些领域最具流动性。在某些时间点，收益率曲线的某部分会比另一部分更有效率。

Yeah. I mean, I think so. It depends on it depends on the investors. You know, the that's the beauty of capital markets is that once you get into the capital markets, you can test out different tranches, different maturities, different pricing combinations, and quite organically, you discover where there's the greatest depth within the capital markets to distribute. And at some points in time, one part of the curve is going to be more efficient than the other.

而在另一个时间点，可能之前效率较低的部分反而变得更高效。因此，在资本市场中，财政部门的职能是保持灵活，始终以市场反馈为导向。这正是我和马修在白皮书中提出的观点。我们并不是建议直接发行2万亿美元一刀切的比特币债券，而是提议先以250亿美元起步，首先确保所有系统准备就绪。

And that another point in time, it might be the other that's more efficient than where it was at the first measurement. And so within capital markets, the treasury function is to remain nimble, to remain oriented toward market feedback. And that's what we proposed, Matthew and I, in the white paper. We you know, we're not proposing like, oh, let's, you know, just put for sale $2,000,000,000,000 of bit bonds, you know, and they're all one size fits all. The proposal was, look, why don't we start with $25,000,000,000 and let's try out you know, let's first of all make sure that we have all the systems in place.

包括托管系统、透明度机制、完善的文件材料以及适合投资者的方案。或许我们会发行多个分级产品，设置不同到期年限，尝试不同定价策略。本质上我们是在构建这个市场，随着市场深度增加，就能逐步抵消未来越来越多的利息支出。

The systems for custody, for transparency, the right documentation, the right approach for investors. Now maybe we do multiple tranches. We have one maturing in this year, one maturing in this year. We try out different prices. We basically build that market and as we build depth in the market, have the capacity to offset more and more of our future interest expense.

多亏了珍妮特·耶伦的方法，我们有了定期到期的再融资。

And thanks to Janet Yellen's approach, we have regular refinancings that are coming due.

所以这事实际上可能很快发生。

So it could actually happen quite quickly.

所以这事可能很快发生。而且我认为这非常合理且行之有效，丹尼。对各州都适用。你知道，对联邦政府也适用。是的，对各州同样有效。

So it could happen quite quickly. And I think that that's it's very rational and it works, Danny. It works for states. You know, it works for the federal government. Yes, it works for states too.

对吧？我是说，没有任何东西阻止伊利诺伊州——比如去年伊利诺伊州预算的20%是州级的养老金稳定支付。而且人们正在离开，因为他们不想生活在高压税收制度下。

Right? You know, I mean, there is nothing that is preventing the state of Illinois or, you know, state of Illinois last year, 20% of the budget was a pension stabilization payment at the state level. And, you know, people are leaving. They're leaving because they don't want to be under a repressive taxation regime.

当然

Of

他们看到了不祥之兆。这会引发什么？就是恶性循环。我不想看到芝加哥陷入这种恶性循环。

course. And they're seeing the writing on the wall. And so what does that create? It creates a downward spiral. I do not want to see Chicago enter into a downward spiral.

芝加哥是世界伟大城市之一。那里有着如此浓厚的创业精神，那么多优秀的机构，那么多出色的社区。它是中西部的首府，是第三海岸的第二城。

Chicago is one of the great cities in the world. You know, I mean, it's just there's such an entrepreneurial spirit there. So many great institutions, so many great neighborhoods. It's the capital of the Midwest. It's the second city on the Third Coast.

看看加州，你会发现类似的人口外迁动态。我本可以提及美国以外的其他地方，但我更熟悉美国国内的情况。你会发现各州——顺便说一句，它们有权发行免税债务——完全可以成为先行者。比如路易斯安那州可以发行比特币债券，用于改善当地民众生活；缅因州也可以这样做。我认为各州就是创新的实验室。

And you look at California, you have similar dynamics in terms of out migration. And I would mention other places outside of The United States, but I'm just more familiar what's happening inside of The United States. And you see that individual states, which incidentally are authorized to issue tax exempt debt could easily pioneer. You could have the Louisiana bit bond and that could go for the betterment of the people of Louisiana or the great state of Maine, the people in Maine. I think that the states are a laboratory of innovation.

他们应该行动起来。市政当局也该这么做，对吧？纽约市长埃里克·亚当斯曾宣布要发行比特币债券或启动相关研究，但政治风向变幻，他现在已无法推进。其他城市应该接过这个火炬，这对它们很有意义。实际上，像纳什维尔、德克萨斯州奥斯汀等城市比特币生态非常活跃，甚至怀俄明州某些偏远地区也出人意料地深度连接着比特币网络。

They should be doing this. Municipalities should be doing it, right? New York City mayor, Eric Adams announced that he was going to issue a Bitbond or start the study of an issuance of the Bitbond, but political fortunes being what they are, he's not gonna be in a position to do that. But other cities should pick up that torch and it makes sense for them. There are some cities actually that are really vibrantly humming with Bitcoin right now, like Nashville and Austin, Texas and some rural areas where there's a surprising connectivity to Bitcoin, like up in Wyoming.

想象一下，如果这些辖区发行比特币债券，将会非常受欢迎且极具影响力。

And you imagine you have a Bitbond issued by some of those jurisdictions, it would be very popular and very powerful.

你认为特朗普政府任内出现比特币债券的可能性有多大？虽然可能显得我很天真，但我实在不明白他们为何不推行这类举措，这明明对他们有百利而无一害。

How likely do you think it would be to see a Bitbond within this Trump administration? And because this may be my just massive naivety, but I just don't understand why they wouldn't do something like this. It seems to be just full of wins for them.

我也认为这对他们百利无一害，如果他们发行比特币债券我会非常兴奋。这就像现成的战术手册——直接执行这个战术就行。至于如何预测概率？我说不准。但这绝对是明智之举。

I think it is full of wins for them and I would be thrilled for them to issue a Bitbond. I think it's a playbook that is right there for, let's run this play. You know, I mean, how do I handicap it? I don't know. But I think that it makes a ton of sense.

确实。那你是否认为更可能先从城市级开始，逐步发展到州级，最后再到联邦层面？

Yeah. And do you so you think it's probably more likely that it starts at sort of a city municipality level and builds up to being state level and then federal level?

这是常规思路，但特朗普政府的独特之处在于他们

Well, that's conventional thinking, but the unique element of the Trump administration is that they

他们会出人意料。

They'll throw a curveball.

是的。而且内阁成员中对比特币的认知水平很高，白宫和国会许多工作人员也是如此。因此，我认为将比特币作为一种工具来使用是非常理性的做法，因为在这种情况下，这个工具的作用是什么呢？它降低了利息支出的成本，否则这部分支出会非常沉重。

Yeah. And there's also a high level of Bitcoin literacy among the members of the cabinet. And many staff positions the White House and in the Congress. So, I think that it's a very rational way to use Bitcoin as a tool because, you know, what what what what is the tool doing in this case? The tool is lowering the cost of the interest expense, which is otherwise really debilitating.

它通过添加增值资产来抵消负债，从而强化资产负债表。你知道，其实可以直接购买比特币。我的意思是，完全可以拿些钱去买比特币。

And it is strengthening the balance sheet by adding an appreciating asset to defees the liabilities. And you know, you could just buy Bitcoin. You know, I mean, you could just take some money and buy Bitcoin, I suppose.

但我们知道有很多资金池不能直接这样操作。

But we know there's lots of pools capital that can't just do that.

是的，他们不能直接这样做。而将其视为一种工具，对我来说，这种视角远比仅仅把它当作资产更具启发性。

Yeah, they can't just do that. And thinking of it as a tool is just, it's a very, to me it's a much more inspiring frame than just treating it as an asset.

财政部要实施这类举措，是否需要通过额外的法律？

And do any additional laws need to be passed for the treasury to actually do something like this?

我认为不需要。虽然我不是专家，但我觉得没必要。

I don't think so. Mean, I'm not an expert, but I don't think so.

这很可能是他们发行过的认购最踊跃的债券。

It will be probably the most oversubscribed bond they ever issue.

绝对会。是的。没错。确实。这是个好主意。

Definitely would. Yeah. Right. It would. It's a good idea.

我真心希望能看到它实现。我还有件事想和你讨论，但在继续之前，关于刚才的内容，我有没有遗漏什么你想补充的？

I really do hope we see it. I have one more thing I wanna talk to you about, but before we move on from this, is there anything that I missed in any of that that you want to cover?

不，我是说，我知道。没有，你继续。

No, I mean, I know. No, go on.

好的。这是我的突袭问题。之前我们在车上时稍微聊了聊比特币。我越来越确信市场发生了变化，我想是机构对比特币的采用，我们可能不再有过去那种四年周期了。但你似乎不以为然，认为我们仍可能迎来一波大涨，然后又是巨大的熊市。

Okay. So this is my curveball question. And when we were in the car before, we were talking a little bit about Bitcoin. And I've been increasingly convinced that something has changed in the market with, I guess, the institutional adoption of Bitcoin and that we may no longer have the kind of four year cycles that we've previously had. But you kind of faded the idea and you think we're still in for a potential big run up here coming up and then another huge bear market.

我认为世界和资本市场及其参与者非常不习惯一种供应有限且缺乏弹性的资产。通常当某物升值时，人们会怎么做？他们就会生产更多。黄金也是如此。我们讨论过这个。

I think that the world and capital markets and capital markets participants are very unaccustomed to an asset that has a finite supply and has no elasticity. Normally when something goes up in value, what do people do? They just make more of it. And that goes for gold. We talked about that.

艺术品也一样，要知道，世界上有多少蒙娜丽莎？真正的蒙娜丽莎只有一幅，但可能有数百万幅复制品。沃霍尔和其他这类作品也是如此，股票也一样。人们只需增发股票，稀释股东权益。当公司升值时，管理层很自然地会这么想。

It goes for art, know, I mean, how many Mona Lisas are there in the world where there's one Mona Lisa, but there are probably millions of imprints of the Mona Lisa. Same thing goes for, you know, Warhol and all of these kinds of things and stock as well. People just issue more stock. They dilute shareholders. You know, when a company goes up in value management, it's a very human thing to think.

管理层表示，我们认为非常清楚该如何花更多的钱。让我们利用当前股价高的优势，增发股票，然后用这些钱做点什么。

Management says, we think that we have a very good idea of how to spend more money. Let's take advantage of our high stock price, issue more shares and then we'll go use the money for something.

那不过是他们的印钞机罢了。

That's just their money printer.

是啊。在某种意义上这非常陌生、新颖、前所未有。这种流动性资产可互换、可分割、无重量且有限。而接下来要考虑的是，我们正在用无上限的货币（美元、欧元、日元、英镑）来衡量它的回报。

Yeah. Yeah. And so it's very foreign in a sense, very new, very novel. The idea that there's this liquid asset, which is fungible, divisible, weightless, finite. And now the next thing to consider is that we're measuring its returns in something that is uncapped, which is dollars, euros, yen, sterling.

如果我们用黄金来衡量比特币的未来回报，我认为它不会像用美元衡量时那样波动剧烈。因为除非出现陨石撞击或人工合成黄金等导致黄金大幅增加的可能性（暂且不考虑这种可能），如果黄金只是以每年1.5%到2%的速度缓慢增长基数，那么它虽然在扩张，但速度不快。而比特币完全不扩张。以黄金计价的比特币，其波动性可能会有所减弱，因为黄金本身也会从现在的3900美元涨到6000、8000、10000美元乃至15000美元等等。比特币确实在上涨，但黄金与比特币的比率会逐渐缩小——虽然我不确定是否会趋于渐近线。

If we were measuring Bitcoin future returns in gold, I do not believe that it will be as volatile as it will be when measured in US dollars because barring the possibility of a massive increase in gold because of the meteor or synthetic gold or whatever, setting that possibility aside, if gold just continues to chug along at one and a half to 2% per year expansion of the base, then it's expanding, but not that quickly. And the Bitcoin is not expanding at all. And the Bitcoin in gold terms, the volatility may dampen somewhat because the gold will also be going from where it is right now, dollars 3,900 to $6,000 $8,000.10000 dollars and so on. Dollars 15 and so on. And the Bitcoin, yes, the Bitcoin is going up, but as a ratio gold to Bitcoin, there's some, I don't know if it's ever going to be asymptotic, but it's diminishing.

如果用美元衡量，回到通胀更多受制于货币制造的工业限制而非其他因素的观点。如果我们认真对待这个命题，那么全球现有约1.2至1.5千万亿美元资产膨胀到8或60千万亿，继而达到1.7百亿亿（这时我们开始使用新的数量级词汇）就完全说得通了。

In dollars, if we go back to the idea that the inflation is more governed by the industrial limitations on the manufacture of money than by other factors. And we really take seriously that proposition, then it's entirely plausible that the roughly 1.2 or 1.5 quadrillion dollars worth of assets around the world today balloons not to just 4 or 6 quadrillion of assets, but balloons to $8.60 quadrillion, which is then followed by, 1.7 quintillion and now we're using new, you know, new powers of 10 in our vocabulary.

这些数字规模已经超出我的理解范围了。

It's just things that I can't even comprehend. Maybe Sizes that I can't comprehend.

或许将来计量单位会改变，或许末尾的零会被去掉。如果用这种方式衡量比特币，我认为我们必将经历价格惊人快速上涨的时期——因为价格由边际决定，由最后的卖家定价。如果所有人都紧握比特币不愿出售，而市场上没有买家，这时像那些能以高于净资产价值溢价发行股票的国债公司等机构买家入场购买更多比特币，就会对净资产发行产生正向反馈循环，尤其在市场上涨时期（当然下跌时也可能出现类似反向效应）。

And maybe the words will be changed or maybe the zeros will be knocked off the end. Yep. And if you measure Bitcoin in those terms, then I think that there's no reason to think that we're not going to go through periods of astonishingly rapid increase because the price is set on the margin. The price is set by the marginal seller. And if everyone is holding on to the Bitcoin and unwilling to sell and no one is stepping into the market to buy and you have all of these new institutional buyers like the treasury companies that are able to issue stock potentially at a premium to NAV and they use that to buy more Bitcoin, which then, you know, has a positive reverberation back to that NAV issuance, especially at a a moment in time when the market's going up, not to say that you won't see a similar effect in the other direction.

但我认为你可以想象，我也能预见，无论是当前周期还是下一个周期，在未来八到十二年间，我们必将见证比特币价格极速飙升的时刻。这取决于它在彩虹图上的位置，对吧？比特币彩虹图或理性根螺旋图上，你也会看到回调，因为这种资产的稀缺性和有限性，会在特定时刻引发狂热上涨，从而暂时超越其内在价值——不是永恒的内在价值，而是当时发展进程中的内在价值。毕竟，在个人采用、家庭采用和企业采用方面我们还有很长的路要走，但在供应量方面我们已接近极限。比特币在能源、电网管理、废热回收等应用场景上仍有巨大发展空间。

But I think that you could imagine, I can imagine that we arrive, whether it's this cycle or next cycle, surely over the course of the next eight to twelve years, we are going to see moments of extremely rapid price appreciation in Bitcoin. And I think that depending on how that sits on the rainbow, right? The Bitcoin rainbow chart or on rational roots spiral graph, you're gonna see draw downs as well because the scarce nature of the asset, the finite nature of the asset lends itself to a manic increase at that moment in time, which will get ahead of the intrinsic value, not intrinsic value forever, the intrinsic value of the progress at that moment. Because after all, have a long way to go in terms of individual adoption, family adoption, business adoption, but we don't have a long way to go in terms of supply. And we have a long way to go in terms of the use cases of Bitcoin, energy, grid management, heat recapture.

这些都是挖矿支付、网络安全、比特币文化、比特币艺术等领域。我们在许多尚未在本访谈中深入讨论的应用场景上还有很长的路要走，或许未来会谈到。所有这些需求都在不断消耗这种有限资产。随着这些应用上线，它们为这种极度稀缺的资产带来了新的买家——这些买家并非受通胀用例驱动，但正是这些应用支撑了比特币作为抗通胀资产的价值主张。当所有这些因素交织在一起时，我看不出有任何理由认为比特币会长期保持温和上涨。

Those are all mining payments, cybersecurity, Bitcoin culture, Bitcoin art. We have a very long way to go on many different use cases, which we haven't so much talked about on this interview, but maybe in the future. But all of those are demanding more and more of this finite asset. And as they come online, they're presenting another buyer for this very scarce asset, which is not motivated by its inflation use case, but it underpins the value proposition as an inflation protecting asset. And so when you mix all of those factors together, I don't see any reason to think that we're gonna have muted upside on a permanent basis.

我认为这将是周期性的。这些周期很难精确预测规模，因为你是在用美元这种你完全无法预知其未来体量的东西来衡量。

I think that it's going to be cyclical. I think the cycles are very hard to exactly say what the size of them are going to be because you're measuring in something that you don't have any idea how big it will be, which is dollars.

所以握紧扶手，多巴胺高潮会来的。没错。紧接着就是纯粹的抑郁。

So hold on tight and the dopamine hit will come. Yeah. Followed by pure depression.

我的意思是，只要你把时间线拉得足够长。确实如此。对。作为个人应该做好心理分区。

Well, I mean, you take a long enough outlook, know. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, should mentally compartmentalize as an individual.

对吧？有些人买股票或指数基金后二十年都不做任何操作——不看、不卖，甚至三十年。人类有能力说：好吧，我要把这部分资产划拨出来长期持有。

Yeah. Right? You should have there are some things that look, some people buy a stock or an index fund and they literally don't do anything with it for twenty years. They don't look at it, they don't sell it, maybe even thirty years. Like humans have the ability to say, okay, I'm gonna set this portion aside for this period of time.

但比特币的问题在于它太令人着迷了——你把它设为锁屏，不断查看价格，它极具吸引力，周围有丰富的生态，让人全神贯注。不过我认为，在这方面我得到的最好建议就是：当你犹豫时，拉长时间维度来看问题，尝试在心理上对你资产配置的对象进行分区，这样你才能做好中长期持有的准备。

But the problem with the Bitcoin is that it's so fascinating and you have it on your lock screen and you're constantly looking at, you know, the price and it's very gripping and you know, that's such a rich environment around it and it's so engrossing. But I think that, you know, this is definitely, you know, the best advice that I ever received in respect of it was just you know, just to, you know, when in doubt zoom out, take a longer term perspective on what's happening and try to mentally compartmentalize the object of, you know, how you allocate your own asset portfolio so that, you know, so that you have the ability to make that medium to longer term voyage.

我一直在想的是，我在这个领域待得够久，价格涨跌已经不太能影响我了，我不会因此情绪波动。当然价格上涨时我还是会兴奋。但每当考虑卖出时，我就会想：你卖出是为了什么？就为了换那些美元吗？这看起来挺蠢的。

And the one thing I always think is if like I've been in this long enough that they don't really affect me that much anymore, I don't get emotional about price going up or down. I mean, I get pretty excited when it goes up. But whenever you'd consider selling, it's like, what are you selling it for? Are you selling it for those dollars? Because that seems like a dumb thing to do.

如果是为了买新房或改善生活之类，那完全合理。该花的钱还是要花。但别仅仅为了换取更多美元就卖掉。

Like if you're selling it to buy yourself a new house or anything like that, like improve your life, makes total sense. Do those things that you have to live your life as well. But don't just sell it for more dollars.

没错。说到这个，在我对比特币产生浓厚兴趣之前，有句话我完全不懂——1031团队把他们基金命名为'低时间偏好基金'。起初我不明白这是什么意思，高低时间偏好？后来查资料才明白，核心思想就是降低时间偏好，别急着吃眼前的巧克力。

Right. Well, I mean, yeah, I guess, you know, the other phrase that I didn't really know about before I, you know, got so interested in Bitcoin, but I've come to appreciate a lot, you know, and this is coming from the ten thirty one team because they call their funds the low time preference funds. And at first I didn't know, well, what does that even mean? A low time preference, high time. And then of course you do a little bit of research, you learn about it, but the idea is, okay, lower your time preference, Don't eat the chocolate right now.

不需要即时满足，把眼光放长远。花时间健身，坚持健康饮食，投入时间学习。比特币最有趣的是，除了作为金融资产，我亲眼见证了它对人们生活各个层面产生的重大行为经济学影响。

You know, you don't need that immediate satisfaction or just have a smaller amount. Take a longer view on where things are headed. Put in the time for physical fitness, put in the time for a good diet, put in the time for study. And what is so interesting I would say about Bitcoin is that beyond the financial asset, I have seen firsthand the very significant behavioral economics impact that Bitcoin has on many different facets of people's lives. It you know

它几乎彻底改变了我的生活。

Changed my life almost entirely.

就是这样。现在你去旅游时，路过纪念品店看到那些小玩意儿，以前可能会花2.99美元买下。但现在你脑子里装着Marty Bent的机会成本计算器——我绝对不需要为这东西花2500聪（很快会值2.5美元，然后是25美元）。这种思维让人更倾向于储蓄和自我投资。

There you go. And it makes you wonder, you might be traveling to a beautiful place and you walk by a souvenir stand and you see this, this irrelevant tchotchke, which is for sale. And before you might've thought, I'll buy this thing for $2.99. But now you're using Marty Bent's opportunity cost app in your mind or maybe even have it on your phone and you're saying, I definitely don't need to spend 2,500 sats on that thing or 25,000 sats or whatever, a 2,500 I guess it would be. And soon it will be $2.50 and then 25 and then 2.5 because you have this opportunity cost in mind and it just orients people toward a much greater degree of savings and self investment and self improvement.

它让你能更专注重要的事：陪伴家人朋友，关注人生要务。对有些人可能是信仰，对其他人可能是健身或社交。现在令我兴奋的是，如何将这些个人层面的改变逻辑推演到企业应用——目前我说的不是上市公司，更多是指中小企业。

And it enables you to focus more time on the things that matter, spending time with your family, with your friends, focusing on important things in life. And for some people that might be faith, for other people it might be fitness, for other people it might be friends or any combination of all of those things, you know, and we've seen that for individuals. So now what's exciting to me is what can we rationally project of those things onto corporate adoption? And by corporate adoption right now, I mean a little bit less treasury company and more like small businesses.

而且

And

农场呢？如果我们把比特币加入美国家庭农场或加拿大农场的抵押资产包会怎样？想象一下这将如何为这些国家的农业部门重新注资——因为现在农场资产负债表上有了不相关的资产。农民可以凭借这种流动性资产获取资源，投资新设备、新地产、以及用于种子、肥料或劳动力的新运营资金。最重要的是，你拥有了一种对下一代极具吸引力的工具，他们会说：知道吗？如果我接手农场，这其实是我在数字经济中积累财富的最佳途径。

how about farms? What if we added Bitcoin to the collateral package of family farms across The United States or across Canada. Imagine what that would do to recapitalize the agriculture sector in those countries because now you have an uncorrelated asset on the balance sheet of the farm. You have a liquid asset against which the farmer can draw resources to invest in new equipment, new property, new working capital for seeds or fertilizer or labor. And on top of all of that, you have a tool that is extremely attractive to the next generation where they say, you know what, if I join the farm, this is actually my best path for wealth in the digital economy.

这是我能获得1个或2个比特币的最佳途径——继承家庭农场。而之前我还以为要靠拍TikTok视频赚钱。

This is my best path to get 1 Bitcoin or to get 2 Bitcoin is to take over the family farm. Whereas before I thought I was gonna make TikTok videos.

或者朝九晚五坐办公室。

Or go and sit in a box nine to five.

没错。或者做些毫无意义的事。所以想象一下农业领域的可能性——你可以通过将其整合到贷款方案中实现这一点，小企业可以整合，中型企业、大型企业当然也可以，但话说回来，我们刚提到的政府层面也是如此。很多人已经对制度失去信任，不像从前了。对吧？

Yeah, right. Or do something totally pointless. And so you imagine that for agriculture and you can do that by integrating it into loan packages, small businesses, can integrate it into loan packages, obviously medium sized businesses, larger businesses, but then again, where we just were, which is governments. And a lot of people have lost, they don't trust the institutions like they used to. Right?

大家都这么说。我们都听到、感受到、看到了。也许，变革会来得很快。尤其在民主国家，这些制度本就是我们组成的，对吧？我们就是这些制度本身。

That's what everyone is saying. We all hear it, we feel it, we see it. And maybe, things change quickly. And especially in democracies where these institutions are comprised of us, right? We are these institutions.

如果我们能把比特币激励机制融入公共制度，难道不能期待这些制度焕发生机吗？难道我们不会因此更愿意大力投资这些制度的福祉与成功吗？我想说——听着，最后分享个观点：你最近和Brandon Quidham做的《第四次转折》节目很棒，那个历史周期理论虽然带点流行色彩，但非常发人深省。现在很多人关注第四次转折，这可以理解，但真正有趣的是回去读那本书时把重点放在第一次转折上。

If we could integrate some of these Bitcoin incentives into our public institutions, could we not expect that these institutions might flourish and change? And would we not then want to invest deeply in the well-being and success of these institutions? I think that, know, I'll look, I'll leave you with this, which is you did a great episode recently with Brandon Quidham on The Fourth Turning and it's a really fascinating, story. I mean, it's a little bit pop, pop, pop history, but very informative and very interesting. And a lot of people are focused on the fourth turning right And I think that's understandable, but what's really interesting is to go back and read that book and focus on the first turning.

因为第四次转折即将结束，

Because the fourth turning is almost over and

还剩三四年时间。

Three or four years left.

对，或者说，这并非精确科学。可能是三年、四年，也可能是一两年，但转折即将结束——但愿我们能顺利度过，所有听众也能安然度过。那么现在问题的核心其实是：第一次转折会是什么样子？

Right. Or, yeah, it's not a science. So maybe three, maybe four, maybe one, maybe two, but it's almost over and knock on wood, we make it. And everyone who's listening makes it. So now actually the name of the game is what's the first turning like?

因为那将是未来二十到二十五年的主题。如果你回顾历史观察其特征，长期投资者现在就应该为那种环境布局。

Because that's the next twenty to twenty five years. And if you go back and you look at what that's like, that's the environment that long term investors should be positioning for right now.

而以更积极的方式重建制度将成为其中非常关键的部分。

And rebuilding institutions in a more positive way is gonna be a very crucial part of that.

确实是非常关键的部分。

Very crucial part of that.

这观点太棒了。这次讨论很有意义。其实快速补充一点：用这种方式为农场重新注资有个有趣的连锁效应——食品质量可能会大幅提升，因为在美国超市里看到的食品状况相当糟糕，肯定比英国还差，虽然英国也不怎么样。

I love it. This has been great. Actually, quickly, one of the interesting sort of downstream effects of recapitalizing farms in this way is maybe the food will increase in quality drastically because in America, the food is that you walk through a supermarket is pretty shocking what you see. Like it's definitely worse than The UK, although The UK is not great.

别误会我的意思。

Don't get me wrong.

但我在想，农场资本更充足是否会产生下游效应，从而提高其产品的实际产出。

But I wonder if there's a downstream effect of farms being more well capitalized, improving the actual output of their products.

高时间偏好导致加工食品盛行，也催生了法币思维。你必须尽可能多工作，因为货币在不断贬值，维持生计比去年更难。因此，你可能没时间吃营养餐，因为烹饪耗时。即使你不是——当然如果你买的是廉价加工食品，它们本身营养匮乏，这就形成了恶性循环。

High time preference leads to processed foods. And it leads to fiat, the fiat mentality. You have to work as much as you possibly can because the money is dissipating and it's harder to keep up than it was last year and so on. And so, you might not have time really to have a nutritious meal because it is time consuming to cook. Even if you're not, I mean, course if you're buying inexpensive processed foods that doesn't have a ton of nutrition and that's its own trap.

但即便购买昂贵的加工食品，或许因高薪工作而有更多可支配收入，这些食品可能营养略高或显著更高。可只要看过标签，就会发现那些拗口的成分。我觉得这是个好原则：读不懂的成分就别吃。

But even if you're buying expensive processed foods, you might have more disposable income because you're working at a higher paying job or what have you, but the foods are maybe marginally more nutritious or maybe significantly more nutritious. But if you ever look at a label, you see all these things you can't even pronounce, right. And, you know, I think that's a good rule of thumb. Like don't eat it if you can't pronounce it.

是啊，这道理很简单明了。

Yeah, that seems pretty straightforward.

MF DOOM就教导过我们饮食之道。在家烹饪时，发现仅用五六种食材——橄榄油、香料、蔬菜、盐、少许肉——就能做出美味，这种体验很美妙。掌握这门手艺后，通常花30到60分钟就能完成。其实更省钱，但需要时间投入。而时间这个共同分母——说到底我们拥有的只有时间。

Yeah, was what MF DOOM taught us on food. And, you know, when you cook at home, it's actually thrilling to know that you can transform just a handful of ingredients, five, six, seven ingredients, little olive oil, some spices, some vegetables, maybe some salt, a little meat, you don't need more and you can make a delicious meal And if you lean into that, then you can do that. You develop meals and develop an understanding of how to cook a meal, but it still takes thirty to sixty minutes usually. But it's less expensive actually, but it takes time. And time is this common denominator that, you know, that's really, that's all we have in the end is time.

如何利用时间是最重要的问题。如果你投资储蓄比特币，最终换回的就是时间。有人用来绘画写诗，有人冲浪踢球，有人投身热爱的事业或研究，有人烹饪或陪伴亲友。随着机器人技术发展，许多职业将发生深刻变革——这话题我们本该深入探讨。

And how you use your time is the most important question and if you save, if you invest and save in Bitcoin, what you get back is time and how you use it in the end is basically everyone's choice. Some people will use it to paint or write poetry and other people will use it to surf or whatever, I mean soccer, and others will use it to work because work is their passion, but they're working on something that they're passionate about or they're researching. Others will cook, spend time with friends or family. And like that is just and you know, it's imperative too because a lot of the jobs and we didn't have a chance to get into this too much, but we should. A lot of the jobs are definitely going to profoundly shift with robotics.

我是说，这毫无疑问。我认为它已经开始发生了。已经开始了。你看看Teamsters工会，美国最大的工会之一，也许是最大的，我不确定，但绝对是卡车司机中最大的工会之一。未来还有多少卡车司机会由人类驾驶呢？

I mean, there's no question. I think it's already starting. It's already starting. And I mean, you look at the Teamsters, one of the largest unions, maybe the largest, I don't know, but one of the largest unions in The United States, truck drivers. How many truck drivers are gonna be humanly driven?

十五年后，还会有多少卡车由人类驾驶？

How many trucks will be humanly driven in fifteen years?

你得猜测一个数字，我觉得是零。

You'd have to guess none, think.

很可能一辆都没有，你知道的。唯一正确的答案就是零。唯一的问题是你把这个时间跨度设为多长？三年？那似乎有点不太可能。

Probably none, you know. And the only question correct answer is none. The only question is what length of time do you put in that? Is it three years? Well, that seems a little implausible.

三十年？那也显得不太现实。所以我们就说十五年吧，但也可能是七年、九年或十二年。如果这些工作岗位就这样消失，那将是一场重大的政治危机。所以现在正是Teamsters工会、Teamsters养老金以及其他所有工会养老金考虑转型的时机——好了，暂停一下。

Is it thirty years? That also seems implausible. So let's just say fifteen, but it could easily be seven, it could be nine, it could be twelve. And if you have those jobs just dissipate, then that's a major political crisis. And so now is the opportunity for the Teamsters and the Teamsters pension and every other labor union pension to think about, okay, time out.

我们该如何制定一个既有通胀保护措施，又能面向未来的投资策略？我认为，我们可以讨论多种实施方案。但在我看来，比特币似乎是一个极好的基础，可以由此展开讨论。

How do we integrate an investment view that has some protections and some defense against inflation and pivoted toward the future. And, you know, I think again, I think that, you know, we can discuss multiple implementations. But to me, it seems like Bitcoin is phenomenal building block to begin to have that conversation.

完全同意。安德鲁，这次讨论太棒了。

Absolutely. Andrew, this has been great.

嘿，谢谢。

Hey, thank you.

我真的很享受这次经历。谢谢你带我参观费城。当然。我们现在要去吃晚餐了。

I've really enjoyed this. Thank you for showing me around Philly. Absolutely. We're get some dinner now.

听起来不错。

That sounds good.

在我们结束之前，你还有什么想推荐给大家的吗？

Well, is there any way you want to send anyone before we do close out?

是的。我想推荐大家去公园大道上新开的卡尔德花园。本杰明·富兰克林公园大道又开放了一个很棒的艺术机构。我还可以推荐大家去谢伊牛排馆，那里的芝士牛排非常棒。

Yes. I would like to send people to the brand new Calder Garden on the Parkway. The Benjamin Franklin Parkway has just opened up another great art institution. I could also send people to Shay's Steaks, is That was great. Turns out to be a very good cheese steak.