法币、通货膨胀与文明的崩溃 | 赛菲迪安·阿莫斯

他们并不依赖于任何商业模式。

They are not withholding to any business model.

他们不需要为了业务运营而出售任何东西。

They don't have to sell any kind of things in order for their business to operate.

他们只是把钱存入美联储。

They just put the money in the Federal Reserve.

但问题在于它过于稳定了。

But the problem is that it's too stable.

它稳定到所有人都会把钱转移到那里，然后其他金融市场就会崩溃。

It's so stable that everybody would move their money there, and then all the rest of the financial markets would come crashing down.

所以我认为这与黄金的情况类似。

So I think it's something similar with gold.

如果有国家使用黄金作为货币，他们的货币会很强劲，所有人都会想把资本转移到那里。

If you were to have countries that use gold as money, their currencies would be strong and everybody would want to move their capital there.

这就是1970年代瑞士的情况，当通货膨胀加剧时，瑞士确实是通胀最低的国家，所有人都把钱转移到瑞士。

So that's what the situation was like with Switzerland from the 1970s really when inflation took off, Switzerland really remained the least inflationary country and everybody was moving their money to Switzerland.

人人都想拥有一个瑞士银行账户。

Everybody wanted a Swiss bank account.

这就是为什么在1990年代，瑞士在金融上必须被实质性地打压。

That's why in the 1990s, Switzerland had to be essentially taken down financially.

他们迫使瑞士出售了一半的黄金储备。

They made them sell half their gold.

他们迫使瑞士卷入各种通胀乱象和挥霍行为。

They made them get into all kinds of inflationary nonsense and money spending.

他们对银行实施了各种限制，并勒索银行支付巨额款项。

They introduced all kinds of restrictions onto the banks and they extorted the banks to pay a lot of money.

随后他们对银行——准确说是威胁要实施制裁，并废除了银行保密制度。

And then they imposed sanctions on the, well not imposed, they threatened sanctions on the banks and they got rid of banking secrecy.

于是他们基本上把瑞士经济和金融体系变成了垃圾币状态。

So they shitcoinified the rest of Switzerland and the Swiss economy basically.

这并非因为瑞士对本国储户构成威胁，而是因为它对其他国家构成了威胁。

So and it's not because Switzerland was dangerous for the depositors in Switzerland, it's because it was dangerous for everybody else.

我是说，仅仅希望你的钱能保值——甚至不求增值，只求维持购买力——这种想法居然被视为极端立场，这简直太疯狂了。

I mean, it's insane that the idea of just wanting your money to retain value, not even increase in value, just retain your purchasing power, That that's an extreme position to take is wild.

是的。

Yes.

我知道。

It's I know.

这就像是...你怎么敢想保住自己的钱？

It's it's it's like, how how dare you want to keep your own money?

你太自私了。

It's so selfish of you.

这是反社会的。

It's antisocial.

这是病态人格。

It's sociopathic.

你的钱属于...说不定还带点种族主义色彩。

Your money belongs It's probably racist somehow.

这很可能是种族主义的，绝对是性别歧视和厌女的。

It's probably racist, definitely, definitely sexist and misogynist.

我是说，你可以看出它是建立在'你的钱不属于你，你的钱属于社会'这一理念上的。

I mean, you can see how it's just built on the idea that your money is not yours, your money belongs to society.

是啊。

Yeah.

而政府决定如何将其分配给社会。

And the government decides how it allocates it to society.

我们以无限的智慧认定，让你把钱留在法定货币庞氏骗局中更安全，这样很多人来回转移资金，我们就能获得更多GDP——这基本上就是在掩盖'我们将让你的财富贬值并拿走它'的事实。

And we in our infinite wisdom have decided that it is more safe, it is safer for you to keep your money in the Fiat Ponzi scheme so that a lot of people are moving it around back and forth and we get a lot more GDP, which, you know, is just basically cover for we're going to devalue your wealth and take it.

没错。

Yeah.

从很早开始，就像你说的1914年，凯恩斯就是这其中的核心人物。

From the very early days, so 1914, like you said, Keynes was at the the heart of this.

你觉得他们中是否有人曾想过：'我们现在可以稍微印点钱度过这场战争，之后就会财政负责了'？

Do you think any part of them was like, we can just print a bit of money now, get through this war, and then we'll be fiscally responsible.

我们会偿还那笔债务，一切都会好起来的，然后我们不会再那样做了。

We'll pay back that debt, and it'll all be okay, and then we won't do that again.

你认为他们当初是这样想的，而不是逐步演变成我们今天看到的情况吗？

Do you think that's the way they were thinking about it rather than escalating to what we've got today?

我想象是这样。

I would imagine so.

我认为事实就是如此。

I think that's how it is.

我的意思是，我对此没有确凿证据，因为我们没有他们当时讨论的完整记录。

I mean, I have no hard evidence on this because we have recordings of the exact discussions they were having with them.

我们只有零星幸存下来的几封信件。

We only have a few letters here and there that survived.

但我觉得，只要了解通胀的运作方式，就能明白这种心态——总是想着再吸一口，就一口，然后我就戒掉。

But I think, you know, just knowing how inflation goes, it's the kind of mentality where it's always just take one hit, you know, one more hit and then I'm going to go clean.

就像再醉一晚，然后我就戒酒。

Just one more night of getting drunk and then I'm going to stop drinking.

这就是成瘾者的逻辑。

It's the addict logic.

我认为，是的，当时有世界大战，规模巨大，我们必须击败德国人，不能让德国人获胜，如果德国赢了，他们将控制整个欧洲，那将非常糟糕，所以我们必须竭尽全力。

And I think, yeah, there was world war, it was huge, we had to defeat the Germans, we can't let the Germans win, if Germany wins, then they have all of Europe and that's terrible, so we must do everything we can.

但这些事情会像滚雪球一样失控。

But these things just snowball out of all proportion.

我知道它一直在持续。

I know it's just been going on.

一百一十一年后的今天，英镑仍在贬值。

It's here we are one hundred and eleven years later and the pound is still being devalued.

用那个成瘾的比喻来说，当你再次按下按钮时，游戏就结束了。

And in that addict analogy, at some point when you press the button one more time, game is over.

你要么会过量，要么就是其他什么后果。

You'll either overdose or whatever it is.

是的。

Yeah.

你钱花光了就买不到更多毒品，然后要么吸毒过量

You run out of money and you can't get more drugs or you overdose and you die.

所以基本上就是恶性通货膨胀

So basically hyperinflation

或者你认为我们离那一步有多近？

or And how close do you think we are to that?

我不知道

I don't know.

这是个非常困难的问题

It's very difficult question.

我是说，很多人以为上世纪70年代就该发生了，当时看起来确实很有可能发生

Mean, a lot of people would have thought it should have already happened in the 1970s and it looked like it was very likely to happen in the 1970s.

要知道，我们那时的通胀水平高得惊人，之后从未再现过那种情况，但居然撑过来了

You know, the level of inflation that we had back then was outstanding and like nothing we've seen since then, but it's stuck through.

所以也许还能再撑一段时间

So maybe it can survive longer.

关于法币体系，我深入研究过这个问题，并论证了为什么法币能持续存在及其意义。

And then the Fiat standard, you know, I look at this question in-depth and I make the case for why, you know, the steel man case for why Fiat can continue to survive and what that means.

我认为过去五十年甚至一百一十年来我们一直拖延问题的方式仍可能继续下去。

And I think the same things that we've had for the last fifty years or for even the one hundred and eleven years of kicking the can down the road, it can continue.

但比特币有趣之处在于，即便在这种情况下它仍能持续增长。

But I think what is interesting about Bitcoin is that it can continue to grow even if that is the case.

我认为这在《法币标准》中算是个原创观点——多数人认为比特币崛起必须取代法币，法币不死比特币就无法成功。

And I think this was perhaps a little bit of an original contribution in the fiat standard and that most people think Bitcoin rises and takes over when fiat dies and Bitcoin has to kill fiat and that fiat has to die if Bitcoin is going to rise.

但在我看来，完全有可能延续过去五十年的法币趋势和过去十五年的比特币（抱歉说成黄金）趋势。

But it's entirely plausible in my mind that we just continue with the same trend that we've had over the last fifty years with Fiat and over the last fifteen years with gold, sorry, with Bitcoin.

比特币持续升值，法币持续贬值。

And that Bitcoin continues to appreciate, Fiat continues to depreciate.

由于通胀侵蚀价值，法币经济规模会随时间缩小。

The Fiat economy becomes smaller over time because inflation is destroying value.

而随着人们从法币转向比特币，比特币经济规模将不断扩大。

And because people move from Fiat to Bitcoin and the Bitcoin economy gets larger over time.

将这个趋势再延续十年、二十年、三十年，最终比特币经济体将变得更大。

Extrapolate that over another ten, twenty years, thirty years, eventually the Bitcoin economy becomes bigger.

我们将拥有一个主导世界的比特币经济体，而法币在世界经济中的占比将越来越微不足道。

And we have a Bitcoin economy that dominates the world, and fiat continues to become a less and less significant part of the world economy.

从某种意义上说，过去十年间这一趋势已在持续。

In a sense, this is what's been going on over the last ten years.

我们正在用聪重新为一切定价，并让全球都以聪为单位进行计价。

We're repricing everything in sats, and we're redenominating the entire world in Satoshis.

要知道，其他所有事物只需以聪为单位再贬值90%，而比特币经济再增长约100倍。

You know, they just need to everything else needs to drop another 90% in Satoshi terms, and the Bitcoin economy grows another 100x or so.

届时世界实际上就进入了比特币本位制。

And then the world is effectively on a Bitcoin standard.

所以我已不再等待法币消亡，而是专注于享受比特币的增长。

So I've stopped waiting for Fiat to die, and I'm just enjoying Bitcoin growth.

你是在享受比特币的胜利。

You're enjoying Bitcoin winning.

这让我想起昨天会议上我们的小组讨论，你说比特币价格是唯一重要的事。

So this reminds me, we were doing a panel yesterday at the conference, and you said the Bitcoin price is the only thing that matters.

我想这就是原因吧。

And I guess this is why.

对吗？

Is that right?

没错，完全正确。

Yeah, absolutely.

这就是记分板。

It's the scoreboard.

很多人都有这种反资本主义心态，就像米塞斯说的，他们认为追求财务安全在道德上是可疑的，关心子女未来保障的人就是坏人。

I mean, it's a lot of people have this kind of it's the anti capitalist mentality as Mises calls it, where people think that, you know, wanting to be financially secure is morally dubious, that you're a bad person if you care about securing your kids.

如果你不想让孩子成为债务奴隶，那你就是个自私、邪恶的反社会者。

If you don't want your kids to be debt slaves, then you're a selfish, evil sociopathic person.

就像那些想保持货币价值的人一样。

Just like people who want to keep the value of their money.

在现代法币社会中，这些行为被病态化了，因为这是政府宣传的结果。

These things are pathologized in modern fiat society because that's government propaganda.

他们需要你的钱，需要你成为奴隶，需要你的孩子也成为奴隶，去缴纳税款并承受通货膨胀之苦。

They need your money and they need you to be a slave and they need your kids to be slaves, to pay taxes and to suffer from inflation.

所以如果你试图寻找绕过这一体系的方法，就会遭到大量的社会非议。

So if you try and find a way around this, you get a lot of social disapproval.

你会招致许多仇恨。

You get a lot of hate.

所以我认为归根结底，宣传才是延续这种状况的原因，但在现实世界中，人们只会继续采取对自己有利的行为方式。

So I think ultimately, it's just I I I think the propaganda is what continues that, but I think in the real world, people are just going to continue to behave in a way that benefits them.

而衡量比特币成功与否的真正标准，就是比特币的市值规模。

And the real measure of how Bitcoin succeeds or fails is just how big the market capitalization of Bitcoin is.

就像考虑鞋类市场时，全球大约有160亿只脚需要穿鞋，这就是总可寻址市场。

It's you know, if if you're thinking about the market for shoes, there's total addressable market, 16,000,000,000 feet on earth that you have to cover with shoes roughly.

如果你占据了部分市场份额，别人就得不到这部分份额。

And if you have a chunk of that market, somebody else doesn't.

你能在这个市场中占据多少鞋类份额

And it's how much of that shoes can you take in that market.

而比特币则处于货币市场中

And then Bitcoin is in the market for money.

货币是所有市场中最大的市场

And money is the biggest market of all.

人们不会这样思考，就像鱼不理解0.5

People don't think of it that way in the same way that fish don't understand what water is.

但金钱本身就是一个市场

But money is a market itself.

我们之所以不这样想，是因为政府通常希望我们将货币视为市场的中立层面

We don't think of it that way because government generally wants us to think of money as just being the neutral layer of a market.

市场是正在发生的事物2.0

A market is something that is happening.

它是建立在基础之上的

It's built on top

货币的。

of money.

它建立在货币之上，但货币本身就是一个市场。

It's built on top of money, but money itself is a market.

这就是奥地利学派的有力观点。

And that's the powerful Austrian idea.

一旦你将货币视为一个市场，你就会意识到它有一个总可寻址市场，即全球所有的现金余额。

Once And you think of money as a market, you realize it has a total addressable market, which is all of the world's cash balances.

人们持有的所有货币，不是为了投资，也不是作为消费品或资本货物，而是作为流动性财富持有的资金，以便日后消费。

All of the money that people hold for the sake of money, not as investment and not as you know, the wealth that people hold, not as consumer goods and not as investments and as capital goods, as money, as liquid wealth, things that they hold so that they can spend later.

如果算上实物货币、支票账户、储蓄账户、政府债券（我也会计入）以及黄金，这个市场规模约为300万亿美元。比特币目前市值已达2万亿美元。

And that's about $300,000,000,000,000 if you count physical money, checking accounts, savings accounts, and government bonds, which I would count as well, and gold, that's about $300,000,000,000,000 So Bitcoin is already at 2,000,000,000,000.

因此它还不到总可寻址市场的1%。

So it's less than 1% of the total addressable market.

但如果达到50%，甚至70%，那情况就不同了。

But if it's at 50%, if it's at 70%, then it's one.

到那时人们怎么想就无关紧要了。

And then it doesn't matter what people think.

所以如果比特币从当前价位上涨100倍，达到900万或500万美元左右，比特币将成为全球最大的货币资产。

So if Bitcoin goes up a 100X from where it is right now, if we're at $9,000,000 or $5,000,000 or something like that, Bitcoin is the biggest monetary asset in world.

比特币的现金余额将超越其他所有资产。

The cash balances in Bitcoin exceed everything else.

比特币将成为世界货币。

Bitcoin is the world's money.

就是这样。

That's it.

游戏结束。

It's game over.

而这仅仅关乎价格。

And that's just about the price.

所以我们推高价格越努力，比特币就越成功。

So the harder we pump the price, the more Bitcoin is winning.

有人能写书把比特币讲得头头是道，结果听起来却像个只会为价格欢呼的狂热信徒，这让人们感到冒犯，但归根结底事实就是如此。

And it offends people that somebody could write a book and be so intellectual about Bitcoin and then just sounds like a total moon boy cheering on the price, but that's ultimately what it is.

比特币是一种价格技术。

Bitcoin is a price technology.

一切都与那个数字息息相关——数字越高，比特币中的现金余额规模就越大，比特币作为货币就越成功。

It's really all about that number because the higher that number goes, the larger the size of cash balances in Bitcoin, the more successful Bitcoin is as money.

你越能将其作为货币使用，就有越多财富储存在其中，通过政府通胀贬值的财富就越少。

And the more you are able to use it as money, the more wealth is stored in it and the less wealth is being devalued through government inflation.

因此我们需要将全球财富都转移到比特币中，才能真正终结法币体系。

So we need to move all the world's wealth into Bitcoin in order to really kill Fiat.

这是条漫长而痛苦的道路。

That's the long painful way of doing this.

最初我刚接触比特币时，和许多人一样，因为理解比特币及其运作机制的过程太过震撼，你会幻想：现在所有人都将明白这个道理，所有人都会抛弃法币、涌入比特币，比特币将一夜暴涨，明天就价值百万美元。

Initially, when I first got into Bitcoin, I think a lot of people when they first get into Bitcoin, they imagine that because figuring out Bitcoin and understanding the process is so mind blowing that you imagine, all right, now everybody's going to get this and everybody's going to dump their Fiat and everybody's going to go into Bitcoin and Bitcoin is going to moon overnight, million dollars of Bitcoin tomorrow.

但随着时间的推移，你会意识到人们比你想象的要愚蠢得多。

But then over time, you realize people are a lot stupider than you give them credit for.

所以这将需要更长的时间。

So it's going to take a lot longer.

他们需要变得更穷困后才会明白并理解这一点。

And they're going to need to get poorer before they figure it out and understand it.

我们将走上一条漫长、曲折且丑陋的道路，通往比特币主导现金储备的世界。

And we're to take the long, scenic, ugly road toward a world where Bitcoin dominates cash balances.

所以很遗憾这还需要一段时间，因为世界需要摆脱法币，但要知道，罗马不是一天建成的。

So it's gonna be a while, unfortunately, which is sad because the world needs to get rid of fiat, but, you know, Rome was not built in a day.

本节目由Anchor Watch赞助播出。

This episode is brought to you by Anchor Watch.

让我夜不能寐的是比特币冷存储可能出现的关键错误，而这正是Anchor Watch的用武之地。

The thing that keeps me up at night is the idea of a critical error with my Bitcoin cold storage, and this is where Anchor Watch comes in.

通过Anchor Watch，您的比特币将获得伦敦劳合社A+级保险，所有比特币都存放在他们的时间锁定多重签名金库中。

With Anchor Watch, your Bitcoin is insured with your own a plus rated Lloyd's of London insurance policy, and all Bitcoin is held in their time locked multisig vaults.

因此您可以安心，知道您的比特币已投保，同时无需放弃托管权。

So you have the peace of mind knowing your Bitcoin is insured while not giving up custody.

无论您担心的是遗产规划、租金攻击、自然灾害，还是自己犯下的愚蠢错误，Anchor Watch都能为您提供保护。

So whether you're worried about inheritance planning, rent attacks, natural disasters, or just your own silly mistakes, you're protected by Anchor Watch.

全额保险托管服务的费率低至0.55%，适用于美国境内的个人及商业客户。

Rates for fully insured custody start as low as point 55% and are available for individual and commercial customers located in The US.

联系Anchor Watch获取报价，并了解更多关于安全选项和保障范围的详细信息。

Speak to Anchor Watch for a quote and for more details about your security options and coverage.

立即访问anchorwatch.com。

Visit anchorwatch.com today.

网址是anchorwatch.com。

That's anchorwatch.com.

《比特币往事》节目由传奇巨头Iron赞助播出——这家纳斯达克上市的最大比特币矿企使用100%可再生能源。

What Bitcoin did is brought to you by the massive legends, Iron, the largest Nasdaq listed Bitcoin miner using 100% renewable energy.

Iron不仅为比特币网络提供动力，还利用可再生能源为人工智能领域提供尖端计算资源。

Iron are not just powering the Bitcoin network, they're also providing cutting edge computing resources for AI, all backed by renewable energy.

我们与其创始人Dan和Will合作已久，对其价值观深表钦佩，特别是他们对当地社区和可持续计算力的承诺。

We've been working with their founders, Dan and Will, for quite some time now and have been really impressed with their values, especially their commitment to local communities and sustainable computing power.

无论你对比特币挖矿还是利用AI计算能力感兴趣，Iron都在树立行业标准。

So whether you're interested in mining Bitcoin or harnessing AI compute power, Iron is setting the standard.

访问iron.com了解更多信息，网址是iren.com。

Visit iron.com to learn more, which is iren.com.

如果你能在降低税单的同时囤积比特币会怎样？

What if you could lower your tax bill and stack Bitcoin at the same time?

通过Blockware进行比特币挖矿，你就能实现。

Well, by mining Bitcoin with Blockware, you can.

最新税收法案允许美国矿工在单个纳税年度全额抵扣挖矿硬件成本。

New tax guidelines from the big beautiful bill allow American miners to write off a 100% of the cost of their mining hardware in a single tax year.

没错。

That's right.

100%全额抵扣。

A 100% write off.

如果你有10万美元资本收益或收入，你可以购买价值10万美元的矿机并全额抵税。

So if you have a $100,000 in capital gains or income, you can purchase a $100,000 of miners and offset it entirely.

Blockware的矿机托管服务让您无需动手即可立即开始比特币挖矿。

Blockware's mining as a service enables you to start mining Bitcoin right now without lifting a finger.

Blockware包办一切，从矿机维护到获取低价电力再到矿池配置。

Blockware handles everything from securing the miners to sourcing low cost power to configuring the pool.

他们全权负责。

They do it all.

您每天都能以折扣价积累比特币，同时在报税季还能省下大笔税款。

You get to stack Bitcoin at a discount every single day while also saving big come tax season.

立即访问mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd即可开始。

Get started today by going to mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd.

当然，以上内容不构成税务建议。

Of course, none of this is tax advice.

请咨询您的会计师或税务顾问了解这些规则如何适用于您，然后访问mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd，每购买一台托管矿机即可获赠一周免费托管和电力服务。

Speak to your accountant or tax adviser to understand how these rules apply to you, and then head over to mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd, and you'll get one week of free hosting and electricity with each hosted miner purchased.

那么当我们考虑实现50%现金储备占比时，比特币如何做到这一点？

So when we look at getting to 50% of all cash balances, how does Bitcoin do that?

它是否在大部分时间里作为价值储存手段？

Is it as a store of value for most of the way?

或者说，你认为比特币何时会成为人们日常使用的实际交换媒介？

Or like when do you think Bitcoin becomes an actual medium of exchange that people use very regularly?

比如，我尽可能多地使用比特币。

Like, I try and use Bitcoin as much as I can.

我刚用比特币从你这买了这本书。

I just bought this book off you with Bitcoin.

但这种转变是如何发生的呢？

But like how how does that transition happen?

是的，这再次通过增加现金余额来实现。

Yeah, it happens through, again, increasing cash balances.

正如我所说，目前全球现金余额中不到1%是比特币。

Currently, as I said, about less than 1% of the world's cash balances are in Bitcoin.

所以当你购买某物时，无论你购买的是什么，或者当你出售某物时，对方在全球范围内的预期现金余额规模约为百分之一。

So when you're buying something, whatever thing you're buying on the other side of that purchase, or when you're selling something on the other side, the expected size of that other person's cash balance globally is about one percent.

所以，你打交道的普通人平均拥有1%的比特币。

So, the average person you deal with has 1% Bitcoin.

而1%的比特币本质上算不上现金储备。

And 1% Bitcoin is essentially not a cash balance.

这几乎可以忽略不计。

It's almost a rounding error.

这更像是一种投资头寸。

It's almost like an investment position.

所以如果你持有1%的比特币，你不会用它来进行日常交易。

So if you are holding 1% Bitcoin, you're not going to be conducting daily transactions in Bitcoin.

你会用你大量持有的资产来进行日常交易。

You're going to be conducting daily transactions in the thing that you are holding off in significant quantities.

如果你想保持1%的比特币投资比例，那么用比特币买卖会使其占比快速波动。

If you want the 1% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, then if you're buying and selling things with Bitcoin, you're going to go up or down very quickly.

这样做要么会让比特币占比归零，要么可能涨到5%。

You're going to go to zero or you might go to 5% if you're doing that.

所以如果你的意图是持有少量比特币仓位，那你实际上无法用它进行交易。

So if your intention is to have a small position in Bitcoin, then you can't really trade with it.

你交易用的是你大量持有的资产，也就是你大量持有的现金。

You trade with the thing that you have in abundance, the cash that you hold in abundance.

这才是你会频繁买卖的东西。

That's the one that you buy and sell extensively.

而这将成为你日常使用的货币。

And that's the one is going to that's the one that's going to be the money that you're going to be using.

目前全球范围内，世界上大部分现金余额都是以美元或美元计价货币形式存在，这些货币大多由美元支撑。

So currently, around the world, about the majority of the world's cash balances are in dollars or in dollar denominated currencies, currencies that are backed by dollars, the vast majority.

因此当你与人交易时，自然会使用美元进行结算。

So when you're going to be conducting trade with somebody, you're going to be conducting it in a dollar because that's the case.

现在以比特币世界为例，比如我的网站就是个很好的例子。

Now, in the Bitcoin world, so for instance, my website is a good example.

我投资组合中比特币的占比远超过1%。

I have a lot more than 1% of my portfolio in Bitcoin.

因此比特币实际上就是我的现金储备。

So Bitcoin really is my cash balance.

我非常乐意用比特币进行买卖交易。

I'm very happy to be buying and selling with Bitcoin.

如果我能用比特币购买一切，对我来说完全不是问题，因为我的现金储备就是比特币。

And if I could buy everything with Bitcoin, it wouldn't be a problem for me because my cash balance isn't Bitcoin.

所以我实际上是在用比特币消费，无论我花的是比特币还是法币，因为在我心目中一切最终都是以比特币计价的，我的现金储备就是比特币。

So I'm spending effectively from Bitcoin, whether I'm spending Bitcoin or Fiat, because everything is essentially ultimately denominated in Bitcoin in my mind, the cash balance is in Bitcoin.

我就是这样的。

So I'm like that.

我的许多读者，以及在我网站上购买课程和书籍的人，他们很多都是比特币持有者。

And then a lot of my readers and the people who buy my courses and my books on my website, a lot of them are Bitcoiners.

所以他们也有大量以比特币形式持有的现金储备。

So they also have significant cash balances in Bitcoin.

因此他们也很可能会花费自己的比特币。

So they're also likely to be spending their Bitcoin.

这就是为什么我的网站现在大约有三分之一，甚至接近一半的交易量是用比特币支付的。

That's why my website does about one third, maybe close to one half of the volume these days in Bitcoin.

而且我还提供比特币支付的折扣，因为我更偏爱比特币。

And I also offer a discount on Bitcoin because I prefer Bitcoin.

所以在这种情况下，当你看到人们持有大量比特币作为现金余额时，我们很可能会用比特币进行交易。

So in this situation, when you're seeing people who have significant cash balances in Bitcoin, it's highly likely that we'll trade in Bitcoin.

这就是为什么很多人用比特币购买我的书。

That's why a lot of people buy my books with Bitcoin.

这就是世界上其他地区需要效仿的做法。

So that's what the rest of the world needs to do.

当世界上其他地区的比特币现金余额达到我和我的读者目前的比特币持有水平时，你就会看到更多比特币交易。

When the rest of the world has more cash balances in Bitcoin, when the rest of the world's cash balances in Bitcoin are similar to the cash balances of me and my readers currently in Bitcoin, then you're going to see a lot more trade in Bitcoin.

价格某种程度上会解决这个问题，因为对于那些最初只配置1%比特币的人来说，这个比例很快就会变成5%、10%、15%，从而改变整个动态。

And price kind of fixes that because for anyone who has a 1% allocation to Bitcoin, that's soon going to become 5%, 10%, 15% allocation, and that changes the dynamic.

确实如此。

Exactly.

所以非持币者有两种选择：轻松的方式是抛售他们的垃圾币，转投比特币，赚取大量比特币从此幸福生活；或者艰难的方式是死守垃圾币，看着它们归零，最终只能带着寥寥无几的比特币入场——祝他们继续保持贫穷玩得开心。

So the no coiners can do this the easy way where they just dump their shitcoins and get into Bitcoin and make a lot of Bitcoin and live happily ever after, or they can do it the hard way where they keep their shitcoins, their shitcoins go to zero, and then eventually they get into Bitcoin with very few Bitcoins have fun staying poor.

是啊。

Yeah.

我想稍微回溯下你之前提到的七十年代，那真是个艰难时期，通胀率居高不下。

I want to just go back a little bit to something you said earlier, which was the seventies being like a really tough in period, really high inflation.

看起来全球央行和国家都开始意识到法币的不稳定性了。

It seems like central banks and countries around the world are waking up to some of the instability in fiat currency.

比如我们看到中国在大量增持黄金。

Like, we see China stacking loads more gold.

俄罗斯肯定也是。

I'm sure Russia is.

而且实际上，当美国制裁俄罗斯时——这个决定看起来非常情绪化而非理性，就像所有人都听到的晴天霹雳——

And and maybe, in fact, when The US sanctioned Russia, which seemed like a very emotional decision, not a very rational decision, like, was kind of the shock that everyone heard.

你认为其他央行、世界两极化、金砖国家货币的崛起，是否意味着人们开始意识到不该把所有资产都押注在美元上？

Do you think that these other central banks, the polarization of the world, the rise of BRICS currencies, this is the start of people realizing maybe we shouldn't have everything in the US dollar?

我也这么认为。

I think so.

我想说的是，人们从1990年代甚至更早就开始这么说了。

I think it's I mean, people have been saying this for a very long time since the 1990s is even.

在1990年代，只有极少数边缘声音在讨论美元及其问题。

In the 1990s, it was very fringe few voices saying the dollar and the problem of the dollar.

到了2000年代金融危机后，这种声音才逐渐增多。

Then in the 2000s after the financial crisis, that grew more and more.

中国对美元问题、美元通胀以及美元超发的认识也在加深。

And the Chinese awareness of the problem of the dollar and the inflation of the dollar and all of the dollar printing increased.

很明显，你知道中国在2008年持有约1万亿美元的美国国债。

And clearly, you know, the Chinese, in 2008, they had about a trillion dollars in treasuries.

现在他们持有的国债大约是7,000亿到8,000亿美元。

Now they have about, I think, 700,000,000,000 or 800,000,000,000.

所以18年后，他们持有的美债反而减少了一些。

So eighteen years later, they've got a little bit less.

但考虑到实际贬值因素，实际减少的幅度要大得多。

But when you factor in the real devaluation, it's significantly less.

是的，尤其是过去十年中美贸易额大幅增长的情况下。

Yeah, especially with the increased trade that's happened with China and The US over the last decade.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

所以中国现在富裕多了，而美元价值却降低了。

So China is a lot richer and the dollar's worth less.

综合考虑这两个因素，中国实际上已经大幅减持了美国国债。

And so when you factor those two things in, China is effectively decoupled a lot from treasuries.

但过去十五年间，他们主要转向了持有投资资产而非国债。

But they moved over the past fifteen years, primarily instead of holding treasuries, they were moving toward holding investment assets.

他们特别注重在非洲和拉丁美洲等第三世界国家投资建设海港和基础设施等项目。

And they were particularly investing in the third world in Africa and Latin America, building seaports and infrastructure and so on.

这是他们引导这些额外储蓄的一种方式，因为很难找到储蓄的去处，因为你用储蓄购买的任何东西都会推高价格，使其不再具有吸引力。

And that was a way for them to channel all these extra savings because it's difficult to find a place to put savings because everything that you buy with your savings, you pump the price up to stop it from being attractive.

但我认为他们现在正在加大黄金购买力度。

But now I think they are stepping up their gold purchases.

而且正如你所说，俄罗斯储备被没收确实是一个巨大的警钟，因为这向所有人清楚地表明，你永远不知道美国人什么时候会把你踢出局。

And I think really, as you said, you know, the the confiscation of the Russian reserves was a huge wake up call because it just made it very clear to anybody that you never know when the Americans are going to kick you out.

有趣的是，你知道，甚至在那之前，俄罗斯人并没有试图退出美元体系。

And it's quite interesting that, you know, even before that, that the Russians had not sought to exit the dollar system.

我是说，这恰恰表明

I mean, it just shows

他们肯定从没预料到这点。

They must never have seen that coming.

也许吧。

Maybe.

或者说，这对他们来说简直难以想象。

Or maybe it was just, I mean, unthinkable for them.

没有这个我们该怎么应对？

How do how do we manage without this?

我不知道。

I don't know.

但我觉得很能说明问题的是，尽管大家都在谈论要摆脱美国的轨道，俄罗斯甚至在入侵乌克兰时都没有撤出他们的储备。

But I think it's very telling that for all the talk about people wanting to break out of The US orbit, the Russians had not even taken their reserves out even when they invaded Ukraine.

所以我认为越来越多的国家...记得去年整个关税闹剧吗？那简直荒谬至极、方向全错、愚蠢透顶，执行方式完全不着调，明显是花15分钟用ChatGPT搞出来的——这届美国政府实在太反复无常了。

So I think more and more of the countries, and then, you know, remember this entire shit show around the tariffs over the last year, it was just so hilarious and so misguided and so idiotic in the way that it was conducted and so completely and utterly clueless, clearly done over chat GPT over fifteen minutes, there's a capriciousness to the current US government.

你能看出来，就是个忙得不可开交的特朗普，他觉得自己根本不需要关注细节。

And you could tell, you know, it was just a very busy Donald Trump who just thinks that he doesn't need to get into the details of things.

所以他觉得这全是谈判策略，你就是在虚张声势先开条件，结果这成了个极其愚蠢的噱头。

So, he thinks it's all a negotiation and you're just bluffing and you're calling the first terms and that's just not It's turned out to be an extremely stupid stunt.

他们跑去和中国人签协议，基本上就是把事情恢复到特朗普愚蠢噱头之前的状态。

They went and signed with the Chinese basically to take things back as they were before Trump's stupid stunt.

这就是全部了...我认为他严重高估了自己对中国的筹码。

And that's I all that it's think he vastly overestimated his leverage on China.

他严重高估了自己能让中国做出多少妥协，而中国所处的地位比他有利且强大得多。

He vastly overestimated how much he could get them to compromise and they are in a much better and much stronger position than him.

但无论如何，这一切都表明，无论是由于无能、反复无常、任性妄为，还是彻头彻尾的邪恶，美国都不是一个值得依赖的国家。

But in any case, all of that just shows that really whether through incompetence, erraticness, capriciousness, or just downright plain evil, The US is not something you wanna count on.

我认为现在世界上许多国家都逐渐认识到了这一点。

I think a lot of the world is coming to that realization now.

而且，你知道，还有这些战争——美国资助战争的狂热劲头，以及美国政府那些疯狂的疯子们，比如当内塔尼亚胡出现时，他们像妓女一样跳起来表演那些收钱把戏的样子。

And, you know, also the wars are really the gusto with which America funds its wars and the way in which the insane lunatics at the US government clap for Netanyahu, for instance, when he shows up and they all jump like prostitutes to do the tricks that they're paid to do.

这对地球上绝大多数人来说真是令人作呕，因为大多数人不会以大规模屠杀为乐，也不会以掠夺地球其他地区来资助大屠杀为荣。

It's really disgusting for the vast majority of the planet because the vast majority of the planet don't take pleasure in mass murder and in robbing the rest of the planet in order to finance mass murder.

所以，我认为世界上许多国家正在觉醒。

So, I think a lot of the world is waking up to that.

而且我认为，我们可能会看到更多资金涌入黄金市场。

And I think, you know, we could see more pumping in gold.

黄金迄今为止的表现令人难以置信。

The gold's had an incredible run so far.

我们可能会看到更多。

We could see more.

我们可能会看到更多个人层面和政府层面的购买行为。

We could see more purchases on an individual level, on a governmental level.

我认为这种趋势可能会持续下去。

I think we could see it continuing.

我对黄金的成功持怀疑态度，因为它会被中心化，政府可以控制它，也可以阻止它。

I do have my skepticism about the success of gold because it will be centralized, governments can control it, they can stop it.

但问题是，特别是中国和俄罗斯这些政府能否意识到，转向金本位制的优势会超过失去通胀特权的弊端？

But, I mean, the question is, can the Chinese and the Russians in particular, can these governments figure out that the advantages of moving onto a gold standard outweigh the drawbacks of losing their inflationary prerogative?

这就是问题所在。

That is the question.

这是个难题，因为我认为中俄两国政府的掌权者已经习惯了使用印钞机。

And it's a difficult one because I think the people who run the Chinese and the Russian government, they've had a money printer, which they use.

公平地说，他们不像美国那样依赖印钞机，因为他们无法输出通胀，但他们仍然喜欢自己的印钞机。

And to be fair, they're not as dependent on their money printer as The US is because they can't export their inflation, but still they like their money printers.

所以问题是，他们是否如此依赖印钞机，以至于愿意放弃实质上伤害美国的机会——或者说并非一定要伤害美国，只是脱离美国的势力范围——因为他们想保留印钞机？还是他们会决定：你知道吗？

So the question is, do they like the money printer enough that they would forego the opportunity to essentially hurt The US or not necessarily hurt The US, just get out of The US orbit because they wanna keep their money printer Or will they decide, you know what?

不，我们不需要印钞机。

No, we don't need the money printer.

我们首先要脱离美国的势力范围。

We need to get out of The US orbit first.

既然中国拥有如此巨大的贸易顺差，又是一个非常富裕的国家，他们是否像美国那样需要通货膨胀？

Because China runs such a trade surplus and they're a very wealthy nation, do they need inflation in the same way that The US does?

不，他们不需要。

No, they don't.

事实上，我认为非常值得注意的是，如果你观察汇率，人民币对美元长期来看几乎保持稳定。

And in fact, I think it's actually quite remarkable that if you look at the exchange rate, the Chinese Yuan is practically flat against the dollar long term.

虽然人民币没有与美元挂钩，但中国在保持人民币价值、避免过度贬值方面做得相当出色。

It's not pegged, but they've done a pretty good job of maintaining the value of the yuan and not devaluing it too much.

因此，我认为他们并不能从通货膨胀中获得巨大利益。

So therefore, I don't think they benefit enormously from inflation.

我认为中国政府不像美国政府那样依赖通货膨胀，因为中国政府无法输出其通货膨胀。

I don't think the Chinese government is relying on inflation as much as the US government does because the Chinese government can't export its inflation.

所以如果中国实施通货膨胀政策，只会导致其货币贬值，而人民币并非国际货币。

So if it engages in inflation, it just devalues its currency, which is not an international currency.

人民币兑美元汇率会下跌，但他们持有的美元资产会随着美元贬值而贬值，其国债价值也在缩水。

Its currency drops against the dollar, But they hold dollar assets that are devaluing as the dollar is devaluing, their treasuries are devaluing.

因此从某种意义上说，他们是在输入通货膨胀——通过持有美国债券来为美国融资，却无法从中获益。

And so therefore, in a sense, they exporting, they are importing inflation, They are financing The US by holding on to The US's bond bags, but they're not benefiting from inflation.

另一个非常有趣的事实是：中国中央政府的债务水平实际上非常低。

And another very interesting fact is the Chinese central government actually has very low levels of debt.

而且中国中央政府的财政支出规模远小于美国联邦政府。

And the Chinese government the central government doesn't spend as much money as the US central government.

实际上中国在政治上的分权程度比美国更高。

China is actually a lot more politically decentralized than The US.

换句话说，大部分政府支出都发生在地方层面。

In other words, most government spending happens at the local level.

所以地方政府没有印钞机。

So the local governments don't have a money printer.

他们在财政上要负责任得多，因为他们不能随意印钞，而且债务也少得多。

They're a lot more fiscally responsible because they can't just print, and they have a lot less debt.

抱歉。

Sorry.

联邦政府的债务要少得多。

The federal government has a lot less debt.

但如果把美国的联邦和州债务与中国国家和省级债务相比，美国的负债要高得多。

But if you add the federal and state debt in The US versus the national and provincial debt in China, The US is a lot more indebted.

因此我认为从基本面来看，中国的处境要有利得多，他们甚至不需要美国作为贸易伙伴。

So I think in terms of fundamentals, China is just in a much stronger position and they don't need The US as a trade partner even.

美国约占2.8%的

The US is about 2.8% of

中国的...我之前没意识到

China's I didn't realize

竟然这么低。

it was that low.

没错，正是如此。

Yeah, exactly.

中国经济已经发展起来了，但大多数人还停留在西方视角。

The Chinese economy is just most people are still stuck in the West.

人们仍然把中国视为90年代的世界廉价工厂。

People are still stuck of thinking of China as if it's still the cheap workshop of the world in the 1990s.

而且不仅如此，它是世界的超级大国。

And it's not, it's the world's superpower.

它是世界工业与经济领域的超级大国。

It's the world's industrial and economic superpower.

它处于独一档的领先地位。

And it's in a league of its own.

确实如此，中国如今已成为第一世界国家，是全球的工业中心。

It's really, there's China as the first world now, it's the industrial epicenter of the world.

他们几乎生产了全球约50%的各种产品，比如钢铁、汽车、电子产品等等。

They produce pretty much around 50% of pretty much everything, you know, steel, cars, electronics, whatever it is.

中国在全球总产量中的占比大约在50%左右。

China is somewhere in the range of 50% of all the world's production.

而世界其他地区的总和也就在50%这个范围。

And the rest of the world combined is in the range of 50%.

所以他们遥遥领先于其他国家，根本不需要依赖任何人。

So they are far, far ahead of everybody else and they don't need anybody else.

美国市场对他们来说只是锦上添花，并非必不可少。

The US market is a nice to have for them, but it's not an essential.

仅占2.8%而已。

It's only 2.8%.

我是说，虽然对美出口占他们总出口的比例，但面向世界其他地区的出口量正在增长。

I mean, it's all of their exports, I think, the exports to the rest of world are increasing.

目前来看，东南亚已成为中国最大的贸易伙伴。

At this point, I think Southeast Asia is the biggest trading partner for China.

它比美国更大。

It's bigger than The US.

只是

Just a

人多得多。

lot more people.

人口多得多，虽然不如美国富裕，但离中国很近，运输成本更低。

A lot more people, not quite as rich as The US, but they're very close to China, so it's cheaper to ship there.

要知道，美国只有3亿人口。

And, you know, so The US is just, it's only 300,000,000 people.

地球上有80亿人。

There are 8,000,000,000 people on earth.

越来越明显的是，中国正考虑减少对美国依赖，因为那是个不稳定的国家。

And it's entirely becoming clear that the Chinese are thinking more and more about not relying on The US because it's not a stable country.

是啊，这很有意思，如果中国、俄罗斯或金砖国家——也就是世界上大多数国家——都在某种程度上考虑比特币的话，我会非常震惊。

Yeah, it's interesting because I would be very shocked if China and Russia or the BRICS nations, like most of the world, I think is thinking about Bitcoin in some degree.

但美国显然在特朗普任内介入，并开始更严肃地讨论比特币。

But The US obviously has stepped in under Donald Trump and started talking about Bitcoin far more seriously.

你认为这是因为他们看到了中国的这种风险吗？

Do you think that's because they see this risk of China?

不。

No.

我不这么认为。

Don't think so.

我诚实的看法是，我认为特朗普只是发现他能从中赚钱，然后编造各种解释试图为债务辩护。

My honest opinion is that I think it's just Trump figured out that he could make money from this thing and he's retrofitting explanations to try and justify the debt.

这对美元有利，能缓解美元压力，会有帮助。

It's good for the dollars, taking pressure from the dollar, it's going to help.

他只是从中赚钱，并为此找理由合理化。

He's just making money from it and he's coming up with the rationalizations for it.

我不认为情况是这样，因为我觉得他并不打算放弃美元。

I don't think that that is the case because I don't think, you know, he's not looking to move away from the dollar.

而且有很多人试图为特朗普辩解，无论他做什么蠢事，总有人想告诉你这是复杂精妙的五维棋局。

And there are a lot of people that try and With Trump, whatever stupid thing he does, there are always people that wanna tell you that this is complicated, sophisticated five d chess.

我们在关税问题上就见识过，每天他的粉丝们都坚信他是个天才，无论他做什么，当他采取某个行动后又反其道而行之。

And we saw that with the tariffs, you know, every day all of his fans were convinced that he was being a genius, whatever he does, when he does something and then when he does the opposite.

比如他对中国加征关税，哇，多么天才的一步棋。

So he puts the tariffs on China, wow, what a genius move.

然后他又取消关税，哇，又是多么天才的一步棋。

Then he removes the tariff, oh wow, what a genius move.

他吓唬了他们，但现在又调整了关税。

He scared them, but now he moved the tariff.

接着他又重新加征关税。

Then he puts them back on again.

哦，哇。

Oh, wow.

天才。

Genius.

现在他正在施加压力。

Now he's putting the pressure.

而且，你知道，这些都只是合理化解释。

And, you know, this is just these rationalizations.

如果我们加征关税，我们就能实现再工业化。

If we put the tariffs, then we're going to reindustrialize.

如果我们取消关税，就能打开市场准入，实现自由贸易。

If we remove the tariffs, then we're going to open access to the markets, and we're gonna get free trade.

你看，自由贸易或再工业化，这两个完全相反的目标，但他同时在做，无论选择哪个都会被说成是对的。

So, you know, he free trade or industrialization, exact opposite goals, but he's doing both, and whichever one he chooses is going to be right about it.

这就是最基本的政治狂热粉行为。

This is just basic politics fanboyism.

我认为他只是通过垃圾币和比特币投资赚了几十亿，他喜欢赚大钱。

I think he's just made billions of dollars from his shitcoin and Bitcoin ventures, and he likes making billions of dollars.

他是个商人。

He's a businessman.

我不认为事情比这更复杂。

I don't think it's more sophisticated than that.

所以你认为在他的任期结束前，美国在比特币方面不会有什么有趣的事情发生？

So you think by the end of his term, nothing interesting will happen out of The US with Bitcoin?

是的，很可能。

Yeah, probably.

我认为推动实质性进展的势头已经消失了。

I think the momentum behind getting something serious done, I think, is gone.

而且我认为现在这个时间点，政治上可能代价太高了。

And I think at this point, it's probably becoming politically expensive.

想想看，科技兄弟和加密兄弟赚大钱、特朗普赚大钱，再加上国内的经济问题，这些因素叠加在一起，在中期选举来临时会形成一种有毒的混合体。

Think you know, the combination of tech bros and crypto bros making a lot of money, Trump making a lot of money and the economic problems in the country combined together, I think is going to make for a toxic mix when the election comes along in the midterms.

我认为加密货币将成为民主党重点关注的议题。

And I think crypto is going to be something that the Democrats are going to focus on.

是的，我相信确实如此。

Yeah, I'm sure that's true.

尤其是像特朗普和梅拉尼娅币这类东西，简直太有害了。

Especially like the Trump and Melania coin, all that stuff is just like so toxic.

有趣的是，在美国发布这个声明之前，比特币界的普遍共识是这场运动会在边缘地带发生，比如世界的萨尔瓦多、不丹这些国家。

The interesting thing is like before The US made this announcement, I think the general consensus amongst Bitcoin was this movement was gonna happen at the fringes, the El Salvador's of the world, the Bhutan's of the world.

那么你认为这个观点现在依然成立吗？美国在这件事上是不是有点转移视线的意味？

So do you think that's actually still true and The US was kind of a red herring in this?

是啊，我想是吧。

Yeah, I guess so.

我的意思是，如果回顾过去十年左右我对比特币的看法，我会说最近几年让我很惊讶——我们见证了更多企业和政府的采用，比如萨尔瓦多、不丹、MicroStrategy、BlackRock、ETF这些。

I mean, if I were to look at how I thought about Bitcoin over the past ten years or so, I'd say I was surprised that over the last few years, we witnessed a lot more corporate and government adoption, El Salvador, Bhutan, MicroStrategy, BlackRock, ETFs, of those things.

在我脑海中，如果你在2018年（我写《比特币标准》的时候）问我它会如何发展，我会想象到2025年会有更多普通老百姓使用钱包。

In my mind, if you asked me in 2018, when I wrote the Bitcoin standard, how it would play out, I would have imagined that by 2025, we'd have more random, normal average Joes with wallets.

而我们仍然不会有ETF，不会有MicroStrategy，也不会有萨尔瓦多。

And we'd still not have ETFs and we'd not have MicroStrategy and we wouldn't have El Salvador.

我认为这些应该是在更多人使用之后才会出现的。

And I think that would come later after more people did it.

但是，过去几年我们看到了这种趋势，不过我认为，美国政府介入这件事不会持久。

But, the last few years we saw that trend, but I think, yeah, the US government getting in, don't think is going to stick.

事实上，我认为如果民主党上台，他们可能会特意抛售手中的比特币，因为这在选举中会成为他们的一个卖点。

I think, in fact, if the Democrats get in, they may make it a point to sell the coins that they have because I can see it becoming a popular point for them in the election.

而且我觉得这简直是绝佳的营销手段。

And I can see it it's just such great marketing.

你懂吧？

You know?

你买不起自己的房子。

You can't afford your home.

你负担不起这些，但特朗普和他的技术团队从他们的垃圾币投资中赚得盆满钵满，全部套现了。

You can't afford this, but Trump and his tech pros have done great from their shitcoin investments, bought them out.

我觉得这简直是无法超越的营销。

It's just unbeatable marketing, I think.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以我不认为这种情况会持续下去。

So I don't think that's going to stick.

我不认为美国在这方面的政策会持久。

I don't think The US policy on this is going to stick.

而且，你知道，我最近在和非洲比特币公司交流，刚成为他们的顾问。

And I think, you know, I was talking to the Africa Bitcoin Corporation and I've just become an advisor for them.

他们不断告诉我南非正在发生的草根采用现象。

And they keep telling me about how in South Africa, they're really witnessing grassroots adoption.

很多人直接跳过了整个法币支付技术，直接接受比特币。

A lot of people have just skipped on the entire fiat payments technology and just accept Bitcoin.

他们有手机，下载比特币钱包，就用这些钱包进行日常交易。

They have a phone, they download a Bitcoin wallet, and they use these wallets for day to day transactions.

这在南非显然相当流行。

It's pretty popular apparently in South Africa.

这重新燃起了我的希望，或许我们会看到越来越多的草根采用。

So this kind of reinvigorated my hope that we'll maybe see more and more grassroots adoption.

而且，希望美国政府继续搞它的那些垃圾币，把比特币留给世界其他地方。

And, know, hopefully the US government continues to do its shitcoin things and leaves the Bitcoin for the rest of the world.

是啊。

Yeah.

如果他们抛售比特币，那只会让更多比特币流入真正的比特币持有者手中。

Well, if they sell the Bitcoin, it's just more Bitcoin in the hands of actual Bitcoiners.

不过我来这里之前刚去过肯尼亚。

But I was just in Kenya before I came here.

我觉得那里可能是世界上最适合比特币持有者的国家。

And I think it might be the best country in the world to be a Bitcoiner.

哦，真的吗？

Oh, really?

我去了基贝拉，那是肯尼亚最大的贫民窟。

So I went to Kibera, which is the largest slum in Kenya.

据估计那里住着大约70到90万人，规模非常庞大。

There's like estimate seven to 900,000 people live there, it's huge.

有一家叫Afrobit的公司正在四处奔走，试图让商户接受比特币支付。

And there's Afrobit or a company that are going around just trying to onboard merchants to accept Bitcoin.

据我所知，他们在基贝拉一个相当集中的区域已经有超过65家商户接入。

And I think they have over 65 merchants all in, like, quite a concentrated zone in Kibera.

最棒的是这不仅仅是比特币在使用场景上的突破。

And the cool thing was it's not just Bitcoin is using it.

说实话，我一直对比特币循环经济持怀疑态度，因为那就像用比特币支付比特币一样。

Like, I'm always a bit skeptical of Bitcoin circular economies because it's just like Bitcoin is paying Bitcoin is.

但他们做了件特别有意思的事——开始用比特币支付给一个经营垃圾回收业务的人。

But what they've done that was really interesting is they'd started paying one of the guys has a trash collection business.

这个人雇佣了25名员工。

He employs 25 people.

他现在用比特币收款，然后用比特币给所有员工发工资。

He's getting his payments in Bitcoin and then paying all his employees in Bitcoin.

现在当地65家商户都能用比特币进行消费了。

And now the 65 merchants in the local area where they can go and pay.

所以那些真正生活在那里的普通人，他们并不真正关心比特币，但实际上正在使用比特币。

And so like real normal people who just live there, aren't who don't really care about Bitcoin are actually using Bitcoin there.

除此之外，还有一个叫Tando的应用，看起来非常基础，但因为当地使用M Pesa这种移动支付，你可以用比特币支付任何账单、任何商户、房租，在肯尼亚用比特币支付一切。

And then on top of that, there's an app called Tando, which is like this really basic looking app, but you can because they use M Pesa there, which is like mobile money, you can pay any bill, any merchant, you can pay your rent, you can pay whatever it is in Kenya using Bitcoin.

你只需扫描二维码支付比特币，系统就会自动转换为M Pesa并支付给对方。

So you just like scan a QR code and you'll pay Bitcoin and it's then just converted to M Pesa and pays the other person.

这意味着如今在肯尼亚完全可以100%靠比特币生活，且毫无障碍。

So that you could live a 100% on Bitcoin in Kenya today and you would have zero problems.

这真的很酷。

It was really cool.

我喜欢看到这样的场景，这才是真正的比特币应用。

I like seeing stuff like that, that's real Bitcoin.

所以是的，我对这个很看好。

So yeah, I'm bullish on that.

我们时间不多了。●●●

We're running out of time.

我知道你今天很忙。

I know you've got a busy day.

我猜你签了太多书手都酸了，

I think you're gonna have a tight hand from signing a

很多

lot of

但我们能回到金本位的话题上结束讨论吗？

books, but can we close out back on the gold standard?

当你展望第一次世界大战爆发后的一百年，未来会是什么样子？

When you look ahead at the hundred years following the start of the first world war, what does it look like?

会是乌托邦吗？

Is it utopia?

差不多是的。

Pretty much, yes.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，你知道，这只是一个思想实验。

I mean, you know, it's it's it's a thought experiment.

我尝试推断我认为积极的趋势，然后想象世界会是什么样子。

And I try and extrapolate the trends that I believe would be positive and then try and think about what the world would have looked like.

我认为这是一个强有力的思想实验，因为它以一种我们不习惯的方式阐释了这些事情。

And I think it's a powerful thought experiment because it illustrates these things in a way that we're not really used to thinking of them.

所以举个例子，我想这是个很好的例子。

So for instance, I guess this is a great example.

当我们讨论通货膨胀的影响时，大学里通常教授的观点是：你需要通货膨胀，因为它能激励人们消费和投资。

When we talk about the impact of inflation, the usual idea that is taught at universities is that you need inflation because that incentivizes people to spend and to invest.

如果没有通货膨胀，人们就会把钱存起来，经济活动就会停滞。

If you don't have inflation, people would just sit on the money and then there wouldn't be economic activity.

这完全是胡说八道。

Which is nonsense.

这当然是胡说八道，因为人们消费不是因为货币贬值，而是为了生存必须消费。

Which is nonsense, of course, because people consume not because their money is losing value, consume because they need to consume to survive.

如果他们的钱没有贬值，他们就会少买些愚蠢的废话，多存些钱。

And if their money wasn't losing value, they would consume less stupid nonsense and save more.

这意味着我们有更多的资本，因为更多的储蓄意味着更多的资本。

And that means we have more capital because more saving means more capital.

这意味着我们可以将更多资本投入生产。

That means we could deploy more capital in production.

所以如果你反过来想，如果你相信这种宣传，那么增长是因为通货膨胀而产生的。

So if you take the opposite of that, if you believe the propaganda, then growth happens because of inflation.

我们得到的通货膨胀越多，增长就越多，因为这激励了更多的支出和投资。

And the more inflation we get, then we get more growth because that incentivizes more spending and more investment.

那么显然，委内瑞拉是当今世界上最富有的国家，对吧，因为他们有很多通货膨胀。

So clearly, Venezuela is the richest country in the world today, right, because they have a lot of inflation.

嗯，不是这样的。

Well, no, it doesn't.

这不是真的。

It's not true.

事实上，通货膨胀率较低的国家经济增长更快。

And in fact, the countries that have less inflation have more growth.

从历史上看，如果通货膨胀率持续降低，资本积累、储蓄、投资和生产效率增长都会更加显著。

And historically, if you had less and less and less inflation, you'd have even more capital accumulation, more savings, more investment, more productivity growth.

因此，让我们退一步思考，不要轻信这种观点，而是真正思考其潜在影响。

So then let's step back and not believe that, and then actually think about what the implication would be.

如果我们经历一个完全没有通货膨胀的世纪，那么资本积累将会持续增加。

If we had a century in which we had no inflation, then you're accumulating more and more capital.

你所拥有的资本存量在不断增长，资本价值也在不断提升。

So the stock of capital that you have is growing and the value of the capital is increasing.

这样人们会变得富裕，获得财务安全感，并拥有持续增值的丰厚储蓄。

So people become wealthy, people become financially secure, people have significant savings that are constantly appreciating.

想想看，当今世界每个家庭在过去四五代人中，财富都因通货膨胀而被窃取。

I mean, just think every family in the world today, the last four or five generations have had wealth stolen from them through inflation.

试想如果过去五代人中，全球每个家庭的财富都能以每年1%到2%的速度持续积累增值，这一百年间会是什么景象。

Imagine if every family in the world over the last five generations had had their wealth accumulate and grow in value at around one to 2% per year, every year over the last one hundred years.

世界将变得截然不同。

The world would be very, very different.

人们将拥有财务安全感。

People would be financially secure.

他们会存下足够数年开支的储蓄，然后用超出部分的资金去承担更多风险。

They'd have several years expenditures of savings saved up, and then they take a lot of risk with the money that they have beyond that.

所以从出生就开始储蓄，收到的金钱礼物会随时间增值。

So you start saving when you're born, you get gifts in terms of money and then they appreciate over time.

年少时打零工，成年后继续工作，持续持有不断增值的储蓄。

And then you work jobs as a kid, and then you start working as an adult and you keep holding savings and they keep appreciating.

这样到25岁时，就能用现金买下自己的房子。

And then by the time that you're 25, you can buy your own house with cash.

而且房价不会那么高，因为它们不再具有货币溢价。

And house prices aren't as high because there's not a monetary premium on them.

没错，房子不是银行账户。

Exactly, houses are not bank accounts.

所以房子只是消费品。

So houses are just consumer goods.

因此，关键点之一——我花了很多时间思考这方面的经济学和数字问题，几乎在书的结尾也得出了这个结论——就是要想象一下房子的价格会发生什么变化。

So, one of the key points, and I spent a lot of time thinking about the economics of this and the numbers of it, and I conclude the book with this almost, is to imagine what would have happened to the prices of houses.

大约在二十世纪初，我们看到存在一个长达数世纪的趋势：相对于收入而言，房子变得越来越负担得起。

So around the early twentieth century, we see that there was a centuries long trend of houses becoming more and more affordable in terms of income.

英国的中位数房价与中位数工资的比例持续下降，因为我们拥有更多机器、更高生产力，能以更廉价的方式建造房屋，同时工作效率也在提升。

So the median house in Britain, and as a function of the median wage, is constantly declining because we have more machines, more productivity, we're making houses at a cheaper way, and work is becoming more productive.

在几百年间，英国普通工人从平均赤贫的农民转变为生产力高得多的产业工人。

The average British worker went from an average destitute farmer in a few hundred years to becoming an industrial worker with a lot higher productivity.

那么按理说，他应该能用工资负担更大的房子，对吧？

So he should be able to afford more house with his salary, right?

事实确实如此。

So that was the case.

而且住房一直在变得越来越可负担。

And it was continuously becoming more and more affordable.

而在1914年后，现实世界中这一趋势发生了逆转，无论是按法定货币、金钱还是工资计算，房屋都变得越来越昂贵。

And then after 1914, that trend reverses in the real world and houses become more and more expensive in terms of fiat, in terms of money, and in terms of wages as well.

因此到了二十世纪末或今天，你需要大约十二年左右的收入才能买得起一套房子。

So by the end of the twentieth century or today, you need something like, I think, twelve years income to buy a house or something like that.

具体数字暂且不论，我的做法是继续沿用第一次世界大战前金本位制下存在的趋势进行推演。

Forget the exact So instead, what I do is we continue to extrapolate the trend that existed before World War I under the gold standard.

如果我们延续那种趋势，那么房屋本应变得更加可负担。

If we'd continued that, then the house would have become more affordable.

到本世纪末，像伦敦这样的地方（我以伦敦为例），普通中产阶级工作者大约用一年半的工资就能买得起房子。

And by the end of the century, the average middle class worker in a place like London, I use London as the example, would be able to afford a house with roughly one and a half years salary.

也就是说，你工作一年半，用这一年半的薪水就能买房。

So, you work for a year and a half, the salary of a year and a half can buy you the house.

所以基本上你工作四五年就能攒够钱。

So basically you can save it over four or five years of work.

而现在在伦敦，你花200万英镑只能买个鞋盒大小的房子。

And now in London, you get a shoebox for £2,000,000.

是啊。

Yeah.

这基本上就是你把代际债务传给子女，就为了那个鞋盒大小的房子。

And this is basically intergenerational debts that you pass on to your children to have that shoebox.

没错。

Yeah.

因为你是在和全球的亿万富翁及寡头竞争，他们都把伦敦当作资金避风港。

Because you're competing with all of the world's billionaires and oligarchs who are looking for London as a place to save their money.

伦敦的房产是相当不错的银行账户替代品。

London houses are decent bank account replacements.

是啊。

Yeah.

你需要一个住所，他们需要一个地方存放资金。

So you need a place to live, they need a place to park their money.

他们会出价超过你。

They're going to outbid you.

所以，你最终只能住进一个鞋盒大小的房子。

So, you're going be left with a shoebox.

因此，如果你扭转这一趋势，让房价变得可负担，人们就能拥有更多储蓄，也能进行更多投资。

So, you reverse that trend, houses are affordable, people have a lot of savings and people are able to invest a lot more.

这样就会有更多投资、更多创业活动、更多技术进步，以及更高的能源消费。

So, there's a lot more investment, a lot more entrepreneurship, a lot more technological progress, more energy consumption.

而不是采取防御姿态，总是试图与凯恩斯主义者争辩说'不，这是不对的，通货膨胀没有好处'。

And rather than take the defensive way of always trying to argue with the Keynesian saying, No, this isn't right, inflation is not good.

这实际上是抓住了问题本质，直接呈现另一种选择，而非在他们的框架内进行争论。

This is really seizing the frame and presenting the alternative as it is rather than arguing with them on their terms.

我们并不是在告诉他们'你们错了'。

It's not that we're telling them that they're wrong.

我们是在展示'错在何处'。

We're showing how it's wrong.

我们正在展示：如果过去一个世纪里这些资本积累都能实现，世界会是什么样子——这个世界本可以更加和平，因为政府无法通过从民众身上榨取通货膨胀来资助他们的暴行。

We're showing what would have happened if we'd had all of this capital accumulation over the century, how the world would have looked like, and how much more peaceful the world would have been because governments wouldn't have been able to finance all of their carnage with the inflation that they're taking from you.

想想这一个世纪以来被窃取的所有财富，如果物归原主，世界将会变得多么美好。

So think of all the money that's stolen over the century, give it back to its owners and imagine how much better the world would be.

我们早该在月球和火星上建立基地了。

We'd have bases on the moon, bases on Mars.

不过值得庆幸的是，我们还有比特币这个机会。

Well, the good thing is that we've got another shot with Bitcoin.

没错。

Yes.

这就是故事的寓意。

That's the moral of the story.

这是一本关于比特币的书。

It is a Bitcoin book.

虽然讲的是黄金，但本质上是一本比特币著作。

It's about gold, but it is a Bitcoin book.

好吧，保重。

Well, safe.

这真是太棒了。

This has been amazing.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我可以和你聊一整天，但我知道我们还有事要做。

I could talk to you all day, but I know we've got stuff to do.

我们得找个时间再聊。

We'll have to do it again sometime.

是的，当然。

Yes, absolutely.

谢谢你邀请我，丹尼。

Thanks for having me, Danny.

谢谢。

Thank you.

干杯。

Cheers.