杰夫·布斯 | 人工智能、比特币与法币经济的崩溃

彻底忘记K型经济吧，因为它绝不允许通缩冲击市场。这种信用体系需要指数级增长的货币单位，否则就会彻底崩溃——一旦允许通缩，你的银行会垮台，政府会垮台，一切都会垮台。每个人都会被迫操纵货币，因为整个系统将彻底归零。这是一场精心策划的游戏。

Forget k shaped economy completely because it cannot allow that deflation to hit the market. That credit based system requires exponentially more monetary units. Otherwise, it collapses completely because if it allows deflation, your banks fail in it, everything fails, your government fails in it, everything fails. Every single person would be begging to manipulate money cause the entire system would completely collapse to zero. It's a coordinated game.

这是场疯狂的协同游戏，你该害怕AI通过这个系统能做什么。你的钱被操纵了多少根本不由你投票决定。所以我们拥有的只是民主的假象，实质上是套控制系统。

It's a crazy coordinated game and you should be scared of what AI can do from that system. You don't have a vote with how much of your money is being manipulated. So we have an appearance, a charade of a democracy, which is really a control system.

让我夜不能寐的事情之一就是比特币冷存储可能出现致命错误。这时Anchor Watch就派上用场了。通过Anchor Watch，你的比特币将获得伦敦劳合社A+级保险，所有比特币都存放在他们的时间锁定多重签名金库中。这样你既能安心知道比特币全额投保，又无需放弃托管权。无论你担心遗产规划、租金攻击、自然灾害还是自身失误，Anchor Watch都能全面保障。

One of the things that keeps me up at night is the idea of a critical error with my Bitcoin cold storage. This is where Anchor Watch comes in. With Anchor Watch, your Bitcoin is insured with your own a plus rated Lloyd's of London insurance policy, and all Bitcoin is held in their time locked multisig vaults. So you have the peace of mind knowing your Bitcoin is fully insured while not giving up custody. So whether you're worried about inheritance planning, rent attacks, natural disasters, or just your own mistakes, you're fully protected by Anchor Watch.

全额投保的托管费率最低仅0.55%，面向美国个人及企业客户。立即联系Anchor Watch获取报价，了解安全选项和承保范围详情。请访问anchorwatch.com。比特币正在狂飙，每次牛市都会涌现新投资者浪潮，随之而来的是大量新公司、新产品和新承诺。

Rates for fully insured custody start as low as point 55% and are available for individual and commercial customers located in The US. Speak to Anchor Watch today for a quote and for more details about your security options and coverage. Visit anchorwatch.com today. That is anchorwatch.com. Bitcoin is absolutely ripping, and in every bull market, there's always a new wave of investors, and with it, a flood of new companies, new products, and new promises.

但如果你在这个领域够久，就会知道大多数故事的结局。有些平台偷工减料、拿你的钱冒险，或者直接跑路。所以说到购买比特币，我只推荐River交易所。他们真心实意为客户着想，以安全透明为核心构建持久服务。通过River，你可以放心知道所有比特币都存放在多重签名冷存储中，这是美国唯一提供储备证明的纯比特币交易所。

But if you've been around long enough, you've seen how this story ends for a lot of them. Some cut corners, take risk with your money, or just disappear. That's why when it comes to buying Bitcoin, the only exchange I recommend is River. They deeply care about doing things right for their clients and are built to last with security and transparency at their core. With River, you have peace of mind knowing all their Bitcoin is held in multisig cold storage, and it's the only Bitcoin only exchange in The US with proof of reserves.

确实没有比这更好的比特币购买平台。立即开户请访问river.com/wbd，购买时可获得最高100美元比特币奖励。最近我花了不少时间研究AI，因为它实在令人难以置信地实用。虽然我不太认同'AI会杀死人类'的末日论调。

There really is no better place to buy Bitcoin. So to open an account today, head over to river.com/wbd and earn up to $100 in Bitcoin when you buy. That's river.com/wbd. So I really wanna go into the AI stuff because I've been spending a bit of time sort of looking into it because it's so it's unbelievably useful. And I'm not sure I'm into, like, the the doomer take of it's gonna kill us.

不过最近确实在彼得的播客里听到个人说有90%概率AI会毁灭人类。但我更担忧的是它对经济的影响——如果这成为K型经济的巨大催化剂，让穷人更加被抛弃在寒冬里。

Although, did listen to a guy on Peter's podcast recently who was, like, 90% chance this kills us. But what I am a little bit doomer ish about is what it does to the economy. And if this is, like, just massive accelerant for sort of the k shaped economy where poor people just get even more left out in the cold.

让我们直接切入正题，因为我觉得——虽然你刚才描述的内容在我看来已经非常接近——但说实话，杰夫，你可能还没完全理解我的核心观点。这其实是

Let's let's jump jump in because I I think I I think even what you just described, it it's what it describes for me is even as much as I think you understand my thesis, you don't quite yet. Honestly, Jeff, this is this is one of

我一直在努力克服的问题，因为我渴望像你一样思考。真的非常渴望，偶尔也能瞥见那种境界。但要彻底改变世界观来适应你的理论实在太难了。

the things that I battle with so much because I want to think like you. I really, really do, and I have glimpses of it. But changing your entire worldview to fit your thesis is very hard.

是啊。那不如这样——最近我就遇到过两次类似情况。娜塔莉纯粹为了弄明白就自己钻研，我以为她早就懂了；还有尼科的播客里，你能明显看到他恍然大悟的那个瞬间

Yeah. So so why don't we then then let for you. And actually, because I I found when this has happened twice lately. Natalie Natalie, who did this on just for her own knowledge because she couldn't understand, and I thought she knew totally. And then it happened on Nico's podcast too, where he was just like it it you could see him actually get it.

对吧？那种顿悟时刻是真实可见的。这两个案例的观看量都超过20万，正是因为帮助了无数人理解。所以我觉得我们应该坦诚相待，

Right? You could actually see him get it in it. And and it was both of those did like well over 200,000 views because because because it was helping so many people, other people. Get it? So I think just be really honest.

让我们保持这种不舒服的状态，需要多久就持续多久。因为——昨天又有人告诉我，不，是今天杰夫在节目里说的——经过四年终于开窍了，杰夫·布斯这些年反复强调的东西，其深远意义远超你的想象。所以

Let's let's keep let's just stay there in the uncomfortable and keep for as long as we need to because I just I cannot tell you how many people I just got one another person just said it yesterday or no, today on on Jeff He goes it he said after four years, it finally clicks, which Jeff Booth has been saying this whole time, and it changes just the it it's so much more than than you think. So

没错。记得我们在贝德福德录《比特币往事》播客那次吗？后来还为我们以前的Patreon会员加录了20分钟片段。当时我们就深入探讨过这个话题。

Yeah. I mean, I remember when we were speaking in Bedford when we recorded a podcast for the old what Bitcoin did. And then afterwards, I don't know if you remember, we did a short bit, maybe, like, twenty minutes for the Patreon that we used to have. Yep. And I we were digging into it then.

你在贝德福德给我讲解时，很多概念确实豁然开朗。现在我偶尔也能用杰夫的视角看世界，但还不是常态。或许我们该从头梳理——你的核心论点究竟是什么？让我们重新开始吧。

And when you were explaining it to me in Bedford, I remember a lot of it clicking. And I still have moments where I I do see the world like Jeff, but it's not mind I'm not always seeing the world like Jeff. Yeah. So maybe we should just start there and and get like, what what is the thesis? Just let's start again.

我知道我们已经讨论过很多次了。我想即使人们听过多次，你也需要反复听。所以我们从这里开始。杰夫·布斯的论点是什么？

And I know we've done it a lot. I think even though people have heard this multiple times, I think you need to hear it a lot. So let's just start there. What is the Jeff Booth thesis?

这不只是我的论点。我总是从自由市场的自然状态是通缩开始讲起。对吧？大多数人会点头赞同，说‘是的，没错’，却不理解他们刚刚同意的是什么。

It's not just my thesis. It's a so I I always start with the natural state of the free market is deflation. Right? And and most people can nod their head to saying, yep, that's right. Without understanding the the what they've just agreed to.

因为如果他们同意这点，就意味着他们从未生活在自由市场中。而他们在相反市场、零和游戏中的所有行为，正是驱动他们在世界上担心的每一件事的根源。对吧？而他们却深陷其中。对吗？

Because if they agree to to that, then it means they've never lived in a free market. And all their actions in the opposite market, in the opposite zero sum game, it drive every single thing that they're worried about in the world. Right? And they stay there. Right?

他们试图将两个无法调和的观点整合在一起。你可能也发现了同样的问题。所以说自由市场的自然状态是通缩。对吧？

And they're they try to integrate two two thoughts that cannot be integrated together. They try to put them together. And so and you're probably finding that same same thing. So let's natural state of the free market is deflation. Right?

之后我们会花点时间探讨原因。信用体系不允许通缩。这两个陈述都是正确的，却属于完全对立的体系。

And we'll spend a little bit afterwards and we'll go down why. A credit based system can't allow deflation. Okay. Those those two statements are both true and they're both opposite systems. They're completely opposite systems.

一方必须消灭另一方。这说得通吗？

One has to kill the other. That makes sense?

完全说得通。但如果通缩是市场的自然状态，为什么它还没能消灭另一个事实——在信用体系中不能有通缩？

That makes total sense. But so why has natural like, if if deflation is the natural state of the market, why has that not already killed the other other truth that in a credit based system, you can't have deflation?

因此，技术发展越快，货币宽松政策实施得越快，对货币的操控也就越快。这就像镜像一样，对吧？一个本该通过价格下降让你变得更富有的系统，本质上是因为自由市场的自然状态是通货紧缩——因为每个创造价值的企业家都必须与之前的成就竞争。如果他们不能为社会提供更多价值，就会失败，因为我们会继续使用已有的东西。

So so the faster technology moves, the faster monetary easing and the faster manipulation of money. It's just a mirror image, right? It's one system is supposed to be making you richer through the prices falling through why essentially why is the natural state of the free market deflation is because every entrepreneur that creates any value has to compete with what became before. Right? And if they don't provide more value to society, they fail because what was there before, we just use what was there before.

当他们确实为社会创造更多价值时，我们就会选择更有价值的产品。对吧？所以我们成为这个必然通货紧缩系统的一部分，因为我们总是选择更有价值的东西。

When they do create more value for society, we use the more value. Right? So and so we we are a part of the system that has to be deflationary because we always choose more value.

有道理。我们这次节目算是突然上线，我没有做完整背景介绍。不知道为什么我们要剪掉那段。但我最近一直在思考的是，AI真的太不可思议了，我自己就经常使用它。

That makes sense. So we've I kind of ninja launched this show, and we I didn't do a full context. I don't know why we're gonna cut that in. But so the the reason something I've been thinking a lot about recently is, like, AI is incredible. Like, it has I'm using it a lot.

就我的工作内容而言，它可能至少替代了半个人力。我想不通的是这对经济会产生什么影响。AI可能是我们见过最具通货紧缩性的技术，也许和比特币并列，是我们有史以来最具通缩效应的两项技术。

It's probably replaced at least half a person in terms of what I do for a business. And what I can't figure out is what impact this has on the economy. Like, the AI is probably the most deflationary tech we've maybe ever had. I don't know. Maybe alongside Bitcoin, like, the two most deflationary technologies we've ever had.

这怎么可能不加剧K型经济分化？最终导致极少数人更富有，而大多数人更加贫困。

How does that not lead to a like, it how does that not exacerbate the k shaped economy to the point where you have even fewer very rich Yep. And then a lot of very poor.

完全忘掉K型经济这个概念吧。你的K型经济模型只适用于信贷支付体系，因为这个体系不允许通缩真正冲击市场。它只能操纵货币，而货币操纵的收益总是最先流向最富有的阶层，形成马太效应。这样就会催生与政府勾结的垄断巨头，通过制定更多保护性法规来巩固垄断地位，其他人则沦为输家。你说的K型经济现象只存在于信用货币体系内部。

Forget k shaped economy completely. Your k shaped economy would have to look like that through a credit pay system because it cannot allow that deflation to hit the market. It has to just manipulate money and the manipulation of money goes to the richest first because of the cancel on effect. And and and so it creates bigger and bigger monopolies that coordinate with governments to create more and more regulation to protect the monopolies and everybody else loses. You are talking about what happens inside a credit based system when you use words like k shaped economy.

嗯。

Mhmm.

对吧？所以请记住，这正是为什么这件事如此难以做到。它们各不相同。你必须找出在Sandd，在第一性原理中什么是真实的。这就是为什么我提出问题，让人们能在自己身上看到这一点，然后引导他们走向那个答案。

Right? So so so just keep in mind, and this is why this is so hard to hard to do. They're different. You you have to you have to find out what's true at Sandd, at this first principle. So is and and that's why I ask questions so people can see it in themselves and then lead them to that.

但这是真的吗？我经常这么说。如果自由市场的自然状态是通货紧缩，我们可以一路验证并确认这一点，这就是为什么价格会降至边际生产成本。那么人工智能的边际生产成本是多少？零。所以所有AI产品的价格都将降至零。

But is it true or I say if a lot. So if the natural state of the free market is deflation and we can test it all all the way through and say yes, that's why prices fall to the marginal cost of production in in that. What's the marginal cost of production of AI? Zero. So prices of all AI will fall to zero.

短期内机器人的边际生产成本是多少？实体机器人确实存在边际生产成本，但随后机器人会制造自己的机器人，对吧？它们将与同样融合的AI技术一起爆发式增长，价格将不断下降，最终大部分会趋近于零。投入其中的所有能源、所有原材料价格也都在经历同样的下跌。对吧？

What are the marginal cost of production short term on robotics? There's a marginal cost of production of physical robotics, but then robots will make you create their own robots, right? They'll explode with the same AI merging and prices will fall and fall and fall on those robots and they'll take more and more and most of those will fall to near zero in in time. All of the energy going into those, all of the raw materials going into those are also experiencing the same fall in price. Right?

我们所做一切的基础都在于创造更多价值并利用更多价值。为什么你使用更多AI而不是雇佣更多人？因为如果不这样做，你的节目就会输给那些这样做的人。对吧？你将无法为用户提供同等价值，你的用户或观众就会流向别处。

They're all being the base formation of everything we do is create more value and we use more value. Why you are using more AI instead of hiring more people? Because if you don't, your show will lose out to somebody who is. Right? And you won't be able to provide as much value to your users, so your users or your viewers will go somewhere else.

所以毫无疑问你会使用更多AI，AI必将呈指数级发展，变得越来越好，以惊人的速度实现更多功能。如果你现在使用AI并认为它很有帮助，那你是在向后看——考虑到它的发展速度和未来方向，人们就像只读到书的一半就翻看下一页，而实际上整本书的结局已经清晰可见。

So so for sure you will use more AI for sure AI is going to move exponentially and get better and better and better and do more things at an alarming rate. And if you're using the AI now and you're looking at it as helpful now, you're looking backwards because where it's coming and at the rate it's coming, looking forward, these things are people haven't they're reading halfway through the book looking at the next page when you can already see the entire where the sun all unfolds.

因为今天的人工智能是它最糟糕的状态。最糟糕的

Because AI today is the worst it will ever be. Worse it

状态。而且今天真正站在技术前沿使用AI的人非常少。没错，非常少。这就是今天的前沿，不是明天的前沿。

will ever be. And and there are very few people using AI today at the at the front edge of what's possible. Yep. Very few people. As that start that's today's front edge, not tomorrow's front edge.

随着越来越多人认识到这种力量及其所能实现的功能，他们正在构建自己的智能体网络，这些智能体将完成一系列你今天甚至无法想象的复杂任务。而这些复杂任务会变得越来越简单，简单到难以置信这会不摧毁劳动力市场。简直难以想象。因为你在做什么呢？

So as more and more people understand the power of this and what they'll be able to do and they're building their own agents and network of agents that'll do a whole bunch of different complex tasks that that you can't even imagine today. And those complex tasks the tasks will get easier and easier and easier. It's just it's almost it it is inconceivable that that doesn't destroy labor. Inconceivable. Because what are you doing?

与其每周雇佣某人工作二十小时，你将获得更高的生产效率，所以根本不需要雇佣。

Instead of hiring somebody for twenty hours a week, you're getting more product productivity, so you don't have to.

而它每月只花费我20美元

And it cost me $20 a

或类似金额。每月20美元套餐费用。是的。而且很快这将会免费。

month or whatever. $20 a month plan cost. Yeah. And and pretty pretty soon that'll be free.

我纠结的部分在于——因为我完全同意你刚才的观点。我认为这将以前所未有的方式摧毁就业市场。但如果K型经济是错误的观察视角，那么正确的视角应该是什么？

The part that I struggle with is like if because I totally agree with what you're saying there. I think it will wipe out the job market in a way that we've never seen before. But if the k shaped economy is the wrong way of looking at it, what's the right way of looking at it?

现在你需要理解这一点。我用分层的方式来说明以便你能明白。两件事是同时成立的：基于信贷的体系通过放贷创造货币。当银行借给你钱时，那些钱原本并不存在。

So so now you have to enter in. So so and I'm doing this in in in air in kind of levels so you can see. So two things are true. Credit based system that lends money into existence. So when a bank lends you money, there was no money.

如果全球所有银行的贷款全部偿还，货币将不复存在。因此当这个信贷体系需要指数级增长的货币单位时，否则它会彻底崩溃——因为如果允许通货紧缩，整个系统就会加速崩塌，你的房产会贬值，银行会倒闭，政府会垮台，一切都会失败。所以简单来说，丹尼·诺尔斯，你不会让它崩溃。你自称是自由市场主义者，但你绝不会允许那种崩溃发生。对吧？

And if all the money was repaid from all the banks all over the world, there'd be no money. So when that credit based system requires exponentially more monetary units, otherwise it collapses completely because if it allows deflation, it collapses completely and it gets faster and faster and faster and your houses fall in it, your banks fail in it, everything fails, your government fails in it, everything fails. So what you could say quite simply from that is, Danny Knowles, you wouldn't let it fail. So you call yourself a free market person yourself and you would not let that fail. Right?

因为如果真是这样，每个人都会争相操控货币，整个体系将彻底崩溃归零。每栋房子、每家企业、所有一切，因为它们都建立在这种信用货币基础上。

Because if it did, you'd be every single person would be begging to manipulate money because the entire system would completely collapse to zero. Every house, every business, everything because it's built on that credit based money.

这其中是否有一部分，你是对的。我不想打个响指就让这一切崩塌，因为那将导致全球范围的苦难。但有没有一种论点认为，你希望它非常缓慢地崩溃，而比特币逐渐吞噬其他一切？

Is there a part of that where like, you're right. I wouldn't wanna click my fingers and have that fail because that just suffering all over the world. But is there an argument that you want that to fail very slowly as Bitcoin just eats everything else?

这正是它正在做的。是的，这就是我要表达的意思。所以现在...现在要理解这些行动。如果这两个系统是对立的，你就能进行某种演绎推理，这意味着什么？

So that's what it's doing. Yeah. So so that's what I'm getting at. So now now and now so so understand the the those action. So if those two systems are opposite, then you can kind of do some deductive reasoning and what does that mean?

对吧？这意味着，如果自由市场的自然状态是通货紧缩，那么我们从未真正生活在一个全球自由市场中。是的，这想法有点让人窒息。但这又意味着什么？

Right? And say, so what it means is if the natural state of the free market is deflation, then it means we have never lived in a global free market. Yeah. Like it kind of takes your breath away. But what does that mean?

你根本不明白这意味着什么。你试图用过去的框架来理解我的话，因为你读过的所有关于自由市场、政府结构、资本主义的书籍，你用来描述过去现实的每个词汇，都是由胜利者书写的——历史由胜者书写，而货币总是被操控的。所以很自然地，你会试图把比特币这个前所未有的事物，套入你原有的认知偏见中，试图让它们共存。这完全正常。

You don't you have no no understanding of what that means. You're trying to apply what I'm saying into a different past framework because all the books you've ever read about what free markets look like, what government structures look like, what capitalism looks like, what every single word you have to describe your previous realities were all created by the winners write the history books and money was always co opted. So it would be normal to try to attach this new thing in Bitcoin that's never existed before to your previous biases and try to make them work together. It'd be totally normal.

但这是否遗漏了一个中间步骤？我同意我们现在生活的范式与未来不同，但会有一个过渡期。这个过渡期会发生什么？

But is there kind of a middle step that is missed there in the sense that, like, I agree that the paradigm we live in now is not the paradigm we'll live in in the future, but there's gonna be a transition period. And what happens in that transition period?

但这个过渡期正在当下发生。这栋房子——我在你播客里说过很多次——每次我说的时候，用比特币计价都在变得更便宜。五年前值300个比特币，现在只值11个。

So but that transition period is happening right now. So this this house, I've said it many times on your podcast. This house and every time I say it, right, it's cheaper in Bitcoin terms. Right now Yeah. Was 300 Bitcoin five years ago, and now it's 11 Bitcoin.

嗯。每次我们一起上播客时，用比特币计价都更便宜。如果你换个角度思考——一个任何人都能使用的开放系统。去中心化、安全。

Mhmm. And every time we're on a podcast together, it's cheaper in Bitcoin terms. And so if you measure if what what would what a different question. An open anybody could use it. Decentralized, secure.

你无法破坏它。协议会分层构建，不断增加功能，这个受能源约束的协议会是什么样子？如果它保持去中心化、安全且不可更改，并由能源约束，难道不是描述了有史以来第一个全球自由市场吗？相对于它，所有能源价格都在下跌，所有制造业价格都在下跌，所有房价都在下跌，一切都在下跌。以这个首个全球自由市场为基准，可以说每个投入时间参与其中的人都在为我们所有人创造更多价值，并将永远保持加速通缩。

You cannot break it. Protocol, which would come in layers, adding more and more functionality, protocol bounded by energy look like? Wouldn't if it stayed decentralized and secure and you couldn't change it and it was bounded by energy, wouldn't it describe the first global free market that ever existed? And wouldn't relative to it, all energy prices be falling, all manufacturing prices be falling, all house prices be falling, all everything be falling. If you measured from that first global free market, you could say every single person that moved their time to it would compete more for value for all of us and you would have faster and faster deflation in it forever.

是的。唯一的注意事项就是它必须保持去中心化和安全。没有其他条件。所以所有工作都应围绕这个核心：你相信它能保持去中心化和安全吗？以及你如何成为节点来确保这一点。

Yeah. From that. And the only caveat, the only caveat would be, it says decentralized and secure. There isn't another caveat. So if it say decentralized and secure and and so all of the work should be, do you believe it'll stay decentralized and secure and how can you become a node just to make ensure it does.

对吧？然后你开始将时间投入这个新协议，成为在全球范围内建立纪律的一部分——这是有史以来第一个全球自由市场。你越深入这个系统，来自旧体系的一切就变得完全合理。比如他们为何试图用AI会杀死你的恐惧来控制你——因为这样才能监管AI。

Right? And then you start utilizing your time into this new protocol and you are part of the thing that's imposing a discipline across the world that is the first global free market that ever existed. That and and that's and and the more you're inside that system, everything else from the other system makes perfect sense. It makes perfect sense why it would try to drive you into fear that AI is gonna kill you. It would make because that's that way you could regulate AI.

它会试图让你相信拜登是英雄，或特朗普是英雄，或随便举那个体系里的任何人——比如刚提到的埃隆·马斯克。它会试图说服你这不是结构性问题，总有人能拯救你。而且它会用越来越多的AI工具来强化这种叙事。你越沉浸那个系统，就越会觉得这一切理所当然。

It would make try to make you believe that Biden was a hero or Trump was a hero or name insert any single person from that system, Elon Musk, just named a bunch of people from in inside that system. It would be trying to convince you that it wasn't a structural problem, somebody could save you. And it would be doing that with more and more AI tools. And you if the more you listened inside that system, the more you would be convinced that that's normal.

我...我想说，你讲的每一点我都认同。但昨天我在超市闲逛时——女儿睡着了，我就独自采购——一直在想这次对话。如果你问那些生活在法币世界的人，他们似乎永远承受着压力：房价越来越贵，越来越遥不可及...

I I guess, like, I again, there's nothing that you say that I disagree with. But I so I was walking around the supermarket yesterday. My daughter was asleep, and I was just doing the shopping. And I was thinking about this interview. And, like, if you go if you I you asked anyone in there, like, the people living in Fiat world, I think they're constantly under this pressure that housing's getting more expensive, is further and further out of reach.

食品杂货越来越贵，人们总带着对旧时光的怀念——希望回到过去，或父母辈的生活状态。而我作为比特币玩家却觉得：这些东西明明在变得更便宜，这就是我生活的世界。但整个超市里可能只有一两个人真正了解比特币。

Their groceries are getting more expensive, and there's a, like, a wistfulness, I think, for the old days. Like, they want things to be like they used to be or, like, how their parents had it. And then there's me there as a Bitcoiner who's like, all these things are getting cheaper. That's the world I already live in. But there's probably only one or two other people in the entire supermarket that even really know what Bitcoin is, if that.

那么在这场转变中，那些尚未理解比特币本质的人会怎样？这正是我感到不确定的地方。

And so what happens to all those people that haven't understood what Bitcoin is in this transition? I think that's what I'm I'm unsure about.

好的。这个过程会持续很久，而我们处于非常、非常早期的阶段。早得离谱。因为我认为大多数比特币持有者实际上仍以美元计价来衡量比特币的上涨。绝对如此。

Okay. This this goes on forever, and we're very, very early. We're crazy early. Because I would say the majority of Bitcoiners are actually Bitcoiners measuring in a US dollar thinking it's going up. Absolutely.

换句话说，大多数比特币持有者仍在强化通胀货币体系，他们最终会把比特币卖回那个体系。也就是说，他们会将比特币分配给其他人。明白吗？随着时间推移，我们真的处于疯狂早期阶段——在理解这种新规则正在强加纪律方面，我们早得不可思议。

In other words, the majority of Bitcoiners are still reinforcing an inflationary monetary system and the majority of Bitcoiners will sell their Bitcoin back to that system. In in other words, they'll distribute their Bitcoin to other people. Right? As this goes on, it's we are so crazy early. Insanely early in in the understanding that this is imposing a new discipline.

但大多数人...我们可以把人分成三类：第一类是你我这样的比特币玩家，我们以比特币计价，见证首个全球自由市场的崛起。在这个世界里，AI很棒，它是生产力工具，让所有人更富有，推动普惠繁荣加速发展。

But most most people and so just take three different buckets of people. There's Bitcoiners that are are like you and I, who are pricing in Bitcoin and watching the first global free market advance. And and in world, AI is wonderful. It's productivity tool, makes everybody richer. It's it just moves faster and faster broad based abundance from that world.

第二类比特币玩家仍停留在法币思维中，对吧？他们可能被试图收编比特币的体系所利用——既然无法消灭比特币，系统就会试图让人们放弃自我托管、不运行节点，说服他们相信比特币上的中心化纸质凭证（比如Tether）更安全。

There's another group of people who are Bitcoiners, who are who are still in fiat, Right? And who are potentially getting co opted by a system that it would if you couldn't kill Bitcoin, what you'd try to do is co opt it. Try to get people not to go into self custody, not run nodes. You can trust you can trust the centralized version of a paper instrument, Tether or whatever on on on Bitcoin. You should that's safer.

这类人会被说服，因为在他们看来比特币在升值，这符合他们的世界观：物价总是上涨的。第三类人则完全不懂比特币，认为它是骗局或为时过早。他们的世界会发生什么？

You would you'd be convinced in that and you'd be convinced because it would appear to you your Bitcoin was going up and it would match your view of the world. Right? It's always been, prices always rise. And then there'd be a third group of people who are don't understand Bitcoin at all, think it's a scam or or it's so early. And what would be happening in their world?

他们将遭受惊人的货币贬值。这其实与比特币无关，只反映出我们对这个强加纪律、不可撼动的新事物的认知偏差。就像我常说的（听过的人请见谅），想象在委内瑞拉——很多人早期接触比特币，有人接受它，不仅持有还以此创业。

They'd be getting debased at a crazy rate. So it actually says nothing about Bitcoin. What it says nothing about it says our own version of what we think reality looks like in this new immovable thing that's imposing a discipline. And on each side you could see the I've said this many times before, apologize to people who've heard it over and over again, but but imagine being in Venezuela and knowing this because a lot of people had access to Bitcoin in Venezuela early and some people took it. Some people took it, not just held it, but some people took it and then also created businesses on top of it.

大多数人持有本国货币，结果却被货币摧毁。嗯哼，对吧？这就是即将发生的事。所有人看着委内瑞拉都说，真不敢相信他们会那样做。

And most people held their currency and got destroyed by their currency. Mhmm. Right? So that's that's what's gonna happen. And and everybody looks at Venezuela and says, I can't believe they did that.

而他们现在正在重蹈覆辙。因为每个地方都是委内瑞拉。这只是程度问题。没错。

When they are doing it themselves right now. Because everywhere is Venezuela. It's just relative. Right.

在西方世界更像是温水煮青蛙的比喻，不是吗？不是直接跳进沸水，而是慢慢加热。我最近刚和来自Leden的Mauricio做了期节目，他讲述了家族在委内瑞拉的遭遇——主要是他哥哥逃亡的故事。他在节目中提到，没有比特币的话，他哥哥即便逃出来也无法在异国重建生活。比特币确实让他哥哥得以逃离委内瑞拉并继续发展，而太多人则被彻底击垮了。

It's just in the West, it's much more of a like it's the boiling frog analogy, isn't it? Instead of it jumping into a boiling pan, it's just slowly heating up. I actually just did a show with Mauricio from Leden, and he told his Venezuela story, which was like, his family's Venezuela story because it's really about his brother escaping. And then one thing he said in the show is, like, without Bitcoin, he his brother could have escaped, but he wouldn't have the ability to build a life elsewhere. So Bitcoin really did allow his his brother to escape Venezuela and continue to sort of thrive, whereas, like, so many people just got completely wiped out.

这种情况很快就会发生在你身边。对吧？现在到处都在上演。人们却自以为安全。其实这恰恰是最危险的处境。所有货币都在相对贬值，不是‘是否贬值’的问题。

And and that's that's gonna happen in a town near you. Right? It's happening everywhere right now, And people think that they're safe in that. Like they're they're it's it's the most unsafe thing you could be. Like every single currency, it's relative devaluation, not is it devaluing?

换句话说，这是相对掠夺而非‘是否掠夺’。这意味着当今世界没人真正生活在民主制度下——你连自己的钱被操纵多少都没有表决权。我们所谓的民主不过是场幌子，本质是个通过货币贬值掠夺民众财富的体系。这个体系自然需要各种手段让你觉得掠夺合理，它会充斥人们担忧的所有问题，还会放大焦虑。如果你想理解比特币，这个体系会把你拽向相反方向。

So in other words, a relative theft rather than is it theft. And that means no one in the world today actually lives in a true democracy because you don't have a vote with how much of your money is being manipulated. So we have an appearance, charade of a democracy, which is really system where the majority of the money comes from debasing your units, stealing from you. And so of course, from within that system and what that system would have to do to make you think it's okay to do that, They would have to it it would be filled with all the things people are worried about, and it will also make people more worried if you're if you were just trying to understand Bitcoin, it would be it'd be pulling you into that other system.

节目前面你说过，不会选择直接关闭现有体系（打个响指那种）。我确实不会，因为那会给太多人带来痛苦。但换个角度看，人工智能是否反而巩固了这种控制体系？当人们失业时就会要求全民基本收入，这是否在某种程度上强化了体系？

So earlier in the show, you said that I wouldn't choose to just turn off the the current system, like, the click of my fingers. And I and I wouldn't because of the amount of suffering that would cause other people. But did in some ways, does AI actually enshrine the power of this, like, control system in the sense that as people lose their jobs, they're gonna want things like UBI? And does that actually make the system stronger in some ways?

这是个微妙的问题。对不知情者而言确实如此，因为他们被精神催眠认为这很正常。对吧？他们会投票支持更多这类政策，逐渐放弃自主权，相信别人会为他们谋利——实际上财富和权力正从他们身上被榨取。

So this is a nuanced question. Yes to the people that don't know because they're they're they're essentially being mind melded into this is okay. Right? And they will vote for more of it. And they'll vote for they'll take less and less agency and trust other people have their best interests while that's being extracted the wealth and power is being extracted from them.

他们将在这个体系内循环往复，就像我们之前的历史中一再发生的那样。是的。选举其他人来实质上剥夺更多他们的个人权利和自由。没错。然后以保护他们的名义进行服务。

And they will turn within the system just like this has always happened before in our very previous history. Yeah. To elect other people to to essentially take more of their individual rights and freedoms. Yep. And then in service in name of protecting them.

这必将发生。不是可能发生，而是必然发生。许多人会被困在那里。但与此同时，每个想要掌握自己主动权的人都有逃生通道，可以参与建设首个真正全球化的自由市场，没有什么能阻止他们。没有什么。

It will happen. Not it might happen. It will and lots of people be be stuck there. But while that's happening as well, there's an escape hatch for every single person who wants to take their own agency and and build onto the global free first global free market that's ever existed and nothing can stop them. Nothing.

所以他们其实可以离开——我多次说过，这就像囚犯在牢房里对着狱卒大喊大叫，而牢门其实是开着的，他们本可以走出去享受自由。但他们对自己认知中的世界图景深信不疑。顺便说，很多比特币持有者也这样，认为通过政治手段能在现有体系内解决问题。但这个新体系正在强加一个完全不同的现实。

So they can just move I've many times, it's like they're in a jail cell yelling at their captor and the jail cell door is open and they could just walk out and live in freedom. And they're so convinced with their narrative of the way that the world looks. This by the way, this is true for many Bitcoiners too, thinking that there's a solve within that through politics. Yeah. Well, this other system is is completely imposing a different reality.

你认为

Do you think

我们在未来五年内很可能会看到全民基本收入（UBI）吗？人们会投票支持更多UBI，选举那些承诺无中生有给予福利却不解释钱从何而来的政客吗？钱到底从哪里来？如果自由市场的自然状态是通货紧缩，UBI的资金来源是什么？意思是，如果没有UBI，如果你只是持有比特币并处于新体系中，物价将年复一年持续下降。

we are likely to see UBI in the next, I don't know, say, five years? Will people vote for more UBI and elect people who say that you can have something from nothing without understanding where the where that money comes from? Like, where does it come from? Where does where does the money for UBI come from if the natural state of the free market is deflation? Meaning, if you didn't have UBI, if you just had if you just held Bitcoin and you were in the new system, every year prices are falling for you forever.

没错。而且下降速度会加快。所以如果你想要UBI，钱从哪里来？来自阻止物价下跌。这就是资金来源。

Yep. And it would accelerate. So if you wanted UBI, where does the money come from? It comes from stopping the prices from falling. That's where it comes from.

这来自操纵自由市场以阻止物价下跌，让你相信是别人的过错，让你需要这笔钱——如果物价持续下跌，你本不需要这笔钱或这份工作。

It comes from manipulating the free market to stop prices from falling, to convince you it's somebody else's fault and you need money because you wouldn't need that money or the job if prices kept falling.

也许吧。你能进一步解释一下吗？

Maybe. Can you explain that further?

所以价格下降的原因在于我们创造了更多价值，而创造更多价值的成本更低。新竞争者出现，为何成本更低？因为我们运用了取代人力的技术，从而为人们创造更多价值。因此，价格下跌本身就是工作岗位被削减的一部分。

So so why prices fall because we use more value is also because because more value costs less to to be able to create. So new competitor and why does it cost less? Because we use technology that removes jobs to be able to create more value for people. So it so the the the the fall in prices is a part of the jobs being removed.

但如果人们因AI失业，他们仍需购买食品杂货，即使价格下跌，这些商品仍有成本。那这种情况如何运作？

But if if people lose their job to AI, they're still gonna need to buy groceries, which even if the prices fall, there is still a price to those groceries. So how how do does that work?

如果你持有比特币，你已经看到了。对吧？如果你四年前或八年前就持有比特币，并且每周只买入100美元，你现在就永远不必再为食品杂货或其他任何东西发愁了。嗯。这些商品的价格会永远下跌，而且将持续下跌。

So if you're in Bitcoin, you already see it. Right? If you were in Bitcoin four years ago or eight years ago, and you just bought a $100 a week, you never have to worry about groceries or anything else again right now. Mhmm. Prices are falling for forever on on those items and they will continue to fall forever on all of those items.

你所描述的是从传统体系出发的思维——认为价格总会上涨。'我没有足够的比特币'，在这种体系下价格会不断上涨，然后你失业了。你困惑该如何支付这些食品杂货，因为你并非生活在比特币体系里。你生活在法币体系中，这是法币体系的风险。顺便说，比特币没有制造这个问题，问题本就存在。

What you're describing is you're measuring from the system thinking prices always rise. I don't have enough Bitcoin and from that system prices will keep rising and then you lose your job. You wonder how you're going to pay for those groceries because you're not living in a Bitcoin system. You're living in a Fiat system and it is a risk from the Fiat system and there's nothing By the way, Bitcoin didn't create that problem. That problem exists itself.

对吧？整个问题本质上是一个建立在盗窃基础上的经济体系。就像如果你问货币是什么，它只是我们之间的交易媒介。只是我们交易的一个抽象概念。所以如果你在货币中植入操纵因素，我们之间的交易会怎样？

Right? It exists the entire problem is essentially an economy based on theft. Like if you just ask what money is, it's just the trade between us. It's just an abstract concept for the trade between us. So if if you insert manipulation into money to the trade between us, what would happen to our trade?

这完全是被操纵的。

It's just entirely manipulated.

是的，一切。如果那真是它的样子，你那个体系中的所有信仰会怎样？它必须触及一切。所以教育也必须被触及。

Yeah. Everything. And what would happen to all of your beliefs from that system if they if that's what it would look like? It would have to touch absolutely everything. So it has to touch education.

它必须触及经济，这看似疯狂实则简单。你可以向五岁小孩解释清楚。我们互相交易。我们与世界各地更多人交易以获取更多价值。而我对此毫无阻碍，随着我们获得更多价值，价格将持续永远下跌。

It touch it has to touch the economy is so crazy to simple. You could explain it to a five year old. We trade with each other. We trade with more people all over the world to try to gain more value. And I'm unobstructed from that, prices continue to fall forever as we gain more value.

每个人都是赢家。这是一场人人皆赢的无限游戏。这就是经济中的一切。没有其他。所以你学到的所有东西，为什么人们如此害怕提出我刚才的问题，因为他们认为自己不够聪明，无法理解一个五岁小孩都能简单明白的事。

Everybody wins. It's an infinite game where everyone wins. That's how that's how that's that's everything in an economy. There is nothing else. So all of what you've learned, why people are so scared to ask the question I just asked, because they don't think they're smart enough to know something that a five year old could understand simply.

对吧？因为他们通过一个体系来看待它，这个体系说你不够聪明，需要博士学位才能理解经济如何运作。你需要理解所有这些三字母词汇和操纵手段，让它变得更难懂更晦涩。当你追逐这些时，却被告知‘不，那很蠢’。对吧？

Right? Because they're looking at it through a system that says that you're not smart enough, need a PhD to understand how an economy works. You need to understand all of these different three letter words and all of this manipulation so it's it's harder and more opaque to understand. And as you chase these things and you're told, oh no, that's stupid. Right?

你身处另一个体系，这个体系被设计得让一个极其简单的复杂系统看起来难以理解。

You're inside this other system designed to to to make a very, very simple complex system seem hard to understand.

所以对于现在没有持有比特币的人来说，我认为随着比特币持有者的情况指数级变好，他们的处境会指数级恶化。

So for anyone that's not owning Bitcoin right now, I assume this gets sort of exponentially worse as it gets exponentially better for Bitcoiners.

是的。正因如此，许多比特币持有者因为情况指数级变好，他们仍以法币思维思考，会卖掉比特币转回法币。他们仍会富有退休等等，但会把比特币分配给今天才入场的人，这种情况将持续永远发生。

Yes. Yes. And that's why that's that's why that's why a lot of the Bitcoiners because it's exponentially better for Bitcoiners, They're they're thinking in terms of fiat, and they'll just sell their Bitcoin and they'll move right back to fiat. And they'll still be they'll retire wealthy and everything else, but they'll distribute their Bitcoin to everybody else who's just coming to today, and this is gonna continue to happen forever.

你认为我们需要多久才能从这套旧系统迁移到新系统？

How long do you think it takes for us to move out of this old system to the new system?

当你这么问时，你其实是在问所有人需要多久？其实这根本不重要。真的。老实说这无关紧要，关键只在于你自己。

So so when you ask that, you're asking you're really asking how do how long does it take everyone? When it doesn't matter. Yeah. But it it honestly doesn't matter. It just matters for you.

这对你的朋友很重要。但你知道飞机上的原则——先给自己戴上氧气面罩。你应该先照顾好自己，其他都不重要。当人们看到你已经转变，生活在更高能量的状态中，对吧？你生活中的一切都在变得更好。

It matters for your friends. It matters for but you know when say in a plane, put on your own oxygen mask first. Might want to put on your own oxygen mask first and it doesn't matter what is. When people see that you've already moved and you're living in a higher energy form, right? Everything in your life is getting better.

只要你不是带着优越感说'你们这些笨蛋'，只要你还关心这个过程，关心他人，你就可以用高能量的方式谈论它，让他们在自己的时间里领悟。嗯。他们终会明白的。你认识持有比特币的人吗？

As long as you're not kind of using that and saying you dummy and use it kind of an ego driven thing. As long as you're as long as you still care about that process, you care about other people, you can you can talk about it at a very high energy type of thing and just allow them to see it in their own time. Mhmm. And they'll see it in their own time. Do you know somebody who who is in Bitcoin?

他们在比特币领域投入的时间越长，所有这些事情就会变得越来越好。

And the more time they spend in Bitcoin, the better and better all of these things are.

对吧？所有比特币持有者都是如此。

Right? Across everyone in Bitcoin.

每个比特币持有者。每一个人。这就是为什么人们会觉得难以理解——因为我们生活在不同的世界。我们生活在希望、富足和真相之中。

Everyone in Bitcoin. Every single person. And that's I think why why it becomes so hard for people because we are living in a different world. We're living on something. We see the hope, the abundance, the truth.

我们看到一个截然不同的世界。无论是走在街上还是用比特币支付，我都在经历这种变化，我的许多关系也融入其中。这就像一面建立在真理基础上的镜子。对吧？所以这面镜子，你投入的时间越多，它就会变得越来越好。

We we see a totally different different world. And so when I'm walking down the street or when I'm paying in Bitcoin, I'm doing this, my relationship many of my relationships are in it. I just it it it's a mirror that is that's on a foundation of truth. Right? So it's and and that that mirror, that reflection back, the more time you spend in it, it just gets better and better and better.

你可以将旧系统抛诸脑后。但我们确实尝试过其他一切。当我们逐渐将时间转移到这个新系统时，也产生了每个刚踏上这段旅程的人都会有的疑问。最初我也怀疑它能否保持去中心化和安全性——如果人类五千年历史中从未允许全球自由市场存在，那必然是我们骨子里更倾向短期利益而非长期价值。

And you can you can leave the other system behind. But you did, I did everything else. As we were moving our time and more and more of it to this new system, we also had the same questions that every single person that is just starting their journey today has. I know when I first looked at it, I didn't think this could stay decentralized and secure. I thought I would I thought if in five thousand years of human history that we've always we've never allowed a global free market, then then it must be something in us that chooses short term over long term.

当我们可能再次被收编时，我对比特币设立了极高标准：它能解决这个悖论吗？而现在我相信它可以。

And and when we could always get co opted again. And so that I had a really high bar on Bitcoin, could Bitcoin resolve this paradox? And I believe now it resolves this paradox.

我之所以关心这件事不仅关乎我和亲友，是因为法币的贬值会带来社会的堕落。我希望女儿能在一个美好的环境中成长，而不是反乌托邦的炼狱之地。

I guess one of the reasons that I care about this kind of happening to more than just me and my friends and my family is because with the degradation of fiat comes like a degradation of society, and I want my daughter to grow up in a nice place, not somewhere that's just a dystopian hellscape.

没错。这就是我写书的原因——你能预见未来。我来自...（省略号保留原文未完成语气）而且将会出现大量反乌托邦地狱景象。

Yeah. It's why I wrote by the way, this is why I wrote my book. Right? Because you could see what would happen. I'm from and and there's gonna be a whole bunch of dystopian hellscapes.

嗯。当今世界已存在许多地狱般的地区，你能享有特权是因为生长在掠夺国——我们通过货币体系将那些国家置于被掠夺地位。西方人或许不自知，但在这个零和经济体系中，他们属于既得利益者，而其他人则被迫成为被剥削方。你我一生中见过太多这样的炼狱地带，而这些地区的苦难恰恰源于造就你成功的同一套体系。

Mhmm. There's dystopian hellscapes today in this world where where you have the privilege because you were raised in one of essentially the taker countries from the have not countries that we were essentially putting in that position from from a monetary system. We didn't know it or people in the in the West didn't know it, but they were part of the haves and other people had to be part of the have nots in an economic system that it was a zero sum game. And so so so but there's been lots of in your life, in my life, a whole bunch of regions that are hellscapes. And those regions are hellscapes largely because of the same system that it provides your success.

对吧？要确认这个残酷事实很难，毕竟过去从未存在过全球自由市场。我们作为既得利益者，现在却要担心同样的机制将给本国带来炼狱景象。

Right? That's a really hard thing to to know that's true for sure because it wasn't a global free market. And so we're on the winning side of that, worried about the hellscapes that are coming to our countries from the very same thing.

你是否担心这些AI系统的控制权过于集中，实际上就像是硅谷的四五家大型科技公司在主导一切？

Are you worried about the centralization of control over these AI systems in the sense that really it's kinda like four or five big tech companies in Silicon Valley that are driving everything?

是的。其实我不确定是否告诉过你，目前领先的一家AGI机器人公司是由我的一位朋友创立的。

Yeah. There so I think I don't know if I told you this, but one of the one of the robotics companies, one of the AGI robotics companies that's one of the leaders right now is started by a friend of mine.

好的。

Okay.

他的首席科学官对我说，我们将创建第一家市值数万亿美元的公司，因为里面不会有任何人类员工。我问钱从哪里来？钱来自于掌控整个系统的顶层，这些控制公司汇聚了一切。所以这场全球AI竞赛，当然包括中国、美国、英伟达等，都在思考如何赢得这场掌控AI的游戏。而赢得游戏的关键，就是通过你的所有社交媒体渠道让你相信这是正常的，这就是系统运作的方式——你生活其中，你的大部分信息渠道都如此。

And his chief scientific officer said said to me, we're gonna create the first multi trillion dollar company because it's not gonna have any humans working in it. It's And I said, well, where does the money come from? And and the money comes from that sitting on top of that system that aggregates it all to the control to control companies. And so that race, that global race for AI from that system, of course, is China, US, Nvidia, all of these are all kind of how do we win this game so we control AI. And a lot of winning that game is convincing you through all of your social media channels and everything else that that's okay, that that's that's the way the system so you're living inside this and most of your most of your channels, everything else.

这是一场有组织的核心游戏，一场疯狂的有组织游戏，你应该对AI在这个系统里能做的事感到恐惧。

And it is a core it's a coordinated game. It's a crazy coordinated game, and you should be scared of what AI can do from that system.

是因为控制AI本质上就是在控制所有人的数据吗？

Is that because controlling AI is just controlling everyone's data essentially?

没错。每次你使用这些模型时都在训练AI，当你发现错误并纠正时，你就是在训练AI。是的。

Yeah. Yeah. You're you're training the AI every time you're you're using these models and error and you've see an error and you correct the error. You're training the you're training the AI. Yeah.

所以他们现在谈论合成数据。那些将是地球上最糟糕的AI模型，因为输入垃圾就会输出垃圾。我们人类本身就是AI——我们本质上就是能从稀缺中创造丰饶的机器。迄今为止，没有任何稀缺是我们无法用智慧突破并从中创造丰饶的。

So they're Now And so they talk about synthetic data. Those would be the worst AI models on the planet because you'd just have garbage in garbage out. We are the AI, like literally what we do as humans. We are abundance creating machines out of scarcity. Nothing that's ever been scarce so far have we not found a way to break through with our minds and create abundance from it.

纵观历史，这种模式之所以成为常态，是因为那些中心化的权力或利润边际会吸引更多创业者以不同方式解决问题。任何被卡住的困境最终都会被我们的思维突破。这就是我们的角色，然后我们利用那些能带来更多价值的事物。这是个非常简单的概念，但问题在于你试图将这个概念嫁接到它根本无法连接的事物上，因为后者从未存在过。

If you look back through history and why would that be normal is because that centralized or that power or that margin attracts more entrepreneurs to to solve those problems in a different way. So anything that's stuck anything that's stuck has always become unstuck through just our mind. That's our role in this and then we use the things that become more more that give us more value. So it's a really simple concept, really simple concept. The problem is is you're trying to marry that concept into something that it cannot connect to because it's never existed.

当你把这个概念与比特币联系起来，并追问：是否存在这样一个开放、去中心化、能源约束且无法作弊的安全协议？那么它就会强制实施我刚才所说的概念。这意味着相对于这个概念，所有政府都会逐渐萎缩；全球债务将重新定价，新体系中的债务规模将大幅缩减；你的房价正在并将持续下跌。

So when you connect that concept to Bitcoin and then you say, is it do you have this open decentralized secure protocol bounded by energy that can't be cheated? Then it will impose the concept that I just said. And that means relative to that concept, all governments will get smaller over time. It means relative that all the debt in the world will be repriced and there'll be way smaller debt on the new on the new system. It means your house price is falling and will fall forever.

房价最终会回归其使用价值——就是你养育家人的住所，对吧？因为那是个有亲友相伴、孩子骑自行车玩耍的美好社区，而非对抗贬值货币的价值储存工具。新体系还将带来许多其他变化，但你必须留在新体系中。你会问：自由市场的自然状态是通缩吗？是或不是？

It falls back to its utility value where you raise your family in a house, Right? Because it's a beautiful neighborhood with your friends and family and kids riding their bikes instead of a store of value against depreciate, currencies that are being devalued. It means a whole bunch of other things from the new system that's imposing that, but you have to stay have to stay in the new system. You say, is the natural state of the free market deflation? Yes or no?

是的。我们是否应该见证指数级通缩，或者说推动指数级通缩的生产力爆发？是或不是？是的。如果存在一个能源约束、无法作弊的去中心化安全协议，它就会精准定价出我刚才描述的场景。

Yes. Should we be seeing exponential deflation or exponential productivity gains which would drive exponential deflation? Yes or no? Yes. If you had a decentralized secure protocol bounded by energy that couldn't be cheated, it would be pricing that exactly what I just described perfectly.

但与此同时，是否大多数人其实无法真正理解我刚刚阐述的观点？他们会回到旧有认知里，嘴上说着'懂了懂了'...

Would it also be true at the same time that most people wouldn't get be able to hold on to that thought that I just said? And they would go back to their old they would be okay. Okay. I get it. I get it.

'价格在下跌，我明白了'——然后他们每天盯着比特币兑美元的汇率，却认为比特币在上涨。他们当然会这么想，对吧？比特币上涨更符合他们基于旧模型构建的思维定式。

Prices are falling. I get it. And then they would look at the Bitcoin price in US dollars or whatever every day and think it's going up. Of course they would, right? Would Bitcoin price going up hang better off their mental models of previous models.

这是否意味着，政府将如何处理这个问题？对吧？这是否意味着，他们会推动更多EBI？你描述的所有这些模型，实际上都是我们自己认知失调的表现，试图将两个不相容的模型强行结合在一起。

Would that then say, how are governments gonna deal with this? Right? Would that then say, okay, are they going to drive more EBI? All of these models that you're just describing are actually your your our own cognitive dissonance trying to to take two incompatible models and put them together.

你是否希望在不卖出比特币的情况下获取现金？Ledden让这成为可能。他们是比特币抵押贷款领域的全球领导者，自2018年以来，他们已发放超过90亿美元的贷款，并保持着保护客户资产的完美记录。通过Ledden，你可以获得全额托管贷款，无需信用检查或按月还款，轻松获取美元而无需卖出哪怕一个SAT。自7月1日起，Ledin仅支持比特币业务，意味着他们专门提供比特币抵押贷款，所有抵押品均由Ledin或其资金合作伙伴直接持有。

Do you wish you could access cash without selling your Bitcoin? Well, Ledden makes that possible. They're the global leader in Bitcoin backed lending, and since 2018, they've issued over $9,000,000,000 in loans with a perfect record of protecting client assets. With Ledden, you get full custody loans with no credit checks or monthly repayments, just easy access to dollars without selling a single SAT. As of July 1, Ledin is Bitcoin only, meaning they exclusively offer Bitcoin backed loans with all collateral held by Ledin directly or their funding partners.

你的比特币永远不会被借出以产生利息。我最近通过Ledden申请了一笔贷款，整个过程再简单不过了。申请耗时不到15分钟，几小时后美元就到账了，非常顺畅。如果你需要现金但不想卖出比特币，请访问learn.ledden.i0/wbd，首笔贷款可享25%优惠。

Your Bitcoin is never lent out to generate interest. I recently took out a loan with Ledden, and the whole process couldn't have been easier. The application took me less than fifteen minutes, and in just a few hours, I had the dollars in my bank account. It was super smooth. So if you need cash but you don't wanna sell Bitcoin, head over to learn.ledden.i0/wbd, and you'll get point 25% off your first loan.

网址是learn.leaden.i0/wbd。本节目由行业巨头Iron赞助，这家纳斯达克上市的最大比特币矿企使用100%可再生能源。Iron不仅为比特币网络提供算力，还利用可再生能源为AI提供尖端计算资源。我们与创始人Dan和Will合作已久，对他们的价值观印象深刻，特别是对当地社区和可持续计算能力的承诺。无论你对挖矿还是AI算力感兴趣，Iron都在树立行业标准。

That's learn.leaden.i0/wbd. This episode is brought to you by the massive legends, Iron, the largest Nasdaq listed Bitcoin miner using 100% renewable energy. Iron are not just powering the Bitcoin network, they're also providing cutting edge computing resources for AI, all backed by renewable energy. We've been working with our founders, Dan and Will, for quite some time now and have been really impressed with their values, especially their commitment to local communities and sustainable computing power. So whether you're interested in mining Bitcoin or harnessing AI compute power, Iron is setting the standard.

访问iron.com（即iren.com）了解更多。如果能同时降低税单并囤积比特币会怎样？通过Blockware挖矿就能实现。新税法允许美国矿工在单个纳税年度全额抵扣矿机成本。没错，

Visit iron.com to learn more, which is iren.com. What if you could lower your tax bill and stack Bitcoin at the same time? Well, by mining Bitcoin with Blockware, you can. New tax guidelines from the big beautiful bill allow American miners to write off a 100% of the cost of their mining hardware in a single tax year. That's right.

100%全额抵扣。如果你有10万美元资本收益或收入，可以购买价值10万美元的矿机实现全额抵税。Blockware的矿机托管服务让你无需动手就能立即开始挖矿。从矿机安保到低价电力采购，再到矿池配置，Blockware全程包办。你每天都能以折扣价囤积比特币，还能在报税季省下大笔开支。

A 100% write off. If you have a 100 k in capital gains or income, you can purchase a 100 k of miners and offset it entirely. Blockware's mining as a service enables you to start mining Bitcoin right now without lifting a finger. Blockware handles everything from securing the miners to sourcing low cost power configuring the mining pool, they do it all. You get to stack Bitcoin at a discount every single day while also saving big come tax season.

立即访问mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd开始。每购买一台托管矿机可享一周免费托管和电力服务。当然，这些都不是税务建议。联系Blockware了解更多：mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd。这真是件有趣的事。

Get started today by going to mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd. And for every hosted miner purchased, you get one week of free hosting and electricity. Of course, none of this is tax advice. Speak with Blockware to learn more at mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd. This is one of the funny things.

很明显，比特币一直在飙升。每次牛市时，人们总会问我，你打算在什么价位卖出？我的回答永远是：卖了换什么？难道要换回恐惧吗？绝对不行。

Like, obviously, Bitcoin's been ripping. And every time, like, we're in a bull market, people will ask me, like, what's your price you're gonna sell at? And my answer is always, sell for what? Like, what am I gonna sell it back to fear? Absolutely not.

确实存在一些现实情况，我会出售比特币来改善生活，因为时间比任何东西都稀缺。比如要买房成家之类的事情，我完全理解为何要卖比特币换取新房这类能提升生活品质的东西。但换成法币？这对我来说毫无意义。

Like, there are realistic situations where I would sell Bitcoin to make my life better because time is more scarce than anything. So if I was gonna buy a house with a family or whatever it is, like, those things, I understand why you sell Bitcoin to get something like a new house, big like, improve your life. But sell it for Fiat, like, makes no sense to me.

完全同意。就像你可能十年前买了台大平板电视，对吧？当时电视感觉很贵，但你知道价格会降还是买了。后来你又买了台更好更大的电视或电脑设备。

Totally. And that's and and that and and just like you probably bought a big flat screen TV ten years ago. Right? And then and then TV felt more and you didn't stop you from buying that TV even though you knew that. And then you bought another TV, right, at a better one and a bigger one or any computer equipment.

顺便说一句，所有这些商品其实都在经历价值稀释。它们价格远高于自由市场应有水平，但你能看到摩尔定律发展得多快。这些技术进步甚至跑赢了货币贬值速度，尽管价格在下跌。就像你会用比特币购物一样——我每天都花比特币，心知肚明今天花掉的比特币明天能买更多东西。

By the way, all of those all of those items are still being debated, like debased. So they're way higher than they would be in a natural free market, but you can see where Moore's law is moving really fast. Right? You can see that they're outpacing even the debasement of currency and and how much they're falling. But all of those items, just like you'll buy in Bitcoin, you I I spend Bitcoin every day knowing full well that the Bitcoin I'm spending today will buy more tomorrow.

是啊，因为生活就是生活。

Yeah. Because life is like life is just life.

你得

You have

花掉点什么。没错。我记得我爸买第一台平板电视时花了大概4美元，现在同款电视要100美元。实际上现在根本买不到那么差的电视了。

to spend something. Yeah. But it's I remember the first time my dad bought a flat screen TV, it was, like, $4. And that same TV sale cost you, like, a $100. And in fact, you couldn't get one as bad.

完全同意。完全同意。所以说到超级智能这个概念，你有没有因为...因为要理解你所说的，你似乎几乎是在说，谁在乎呢？你知道吗，就像，这些事情正在发生。我生活在一个超越现有体系的系统里，所以顺其自然就好，最终我会过得更好。

Totally. Totally. So when it comes to, like, the idea of superintelligence, do you have any because because to, like, to kind of conceptualize what you're saying here, it seems like you're almost saying, who cares? You know, like, this stuff is happening. Like, I live in a system outside of the current system, so just let it happen and and I will be better off at the end of it.

所以我不会...我大概做过1500期播客了，对吧？我为什么还要不断答应做这些？我在乎，对吧？

So I wouldn't I've probably done 1,500 podcasts. Right? I've probably done and and why would I keep saying yes? I care. Right?

我在乎帮助更多人理解这一点。真的在乎。因为如果有什么能触动他们，让他们能把时间和精力投入到一个对我们所有人都有益的生产性系统中，那么大家都会受益。那些人赢了，那些人可能会进而影响数千万更多的人，对吧？

I care to help more people understand this. I really do. I because if if something grabs them and they they can they can move their time, their energy into a productive system that is is for all of us, then everybody wins. Those people won those people might then touch tens of millions of people more. Right?

本质上正在发生的是，你正在将现实扭曲成一个与以往任何现实都截然不同的新世界。所有那些开始理解的人，哪怕只是第一天刚开始理解，然后他们投入1%的精力，稍微接触比特币自我托管，他们就会开始了解更多，这需要时间。所以我确实在乎。非常在乎。当有人问'你怎么能让所有人明天就改变'时...

And and the the essentially, what's happening is you're bending reality into a new world that looks nothing like any previous reality. And all of those people that are starting to understand, even if it's the first day and they're just starting to understand and then they spend 1% of their energy and they put a little bit into Bitcoin self custody, then they'll start to learn more about this and it'll take time. So I do care. I care a lot. I can't When somebody says, How do you get everybody to move tomorrow?

对那些被困住的人来说会怎样？我完全清楚其中的混乱，而且...现状已经很糟糕了。嗯。而且还在变得更糟。

What does it look like for all those people that are stuck? I know full well the chaos and I'm not It's like how terrible it is. It already is bad. Mhmm. And it's getting worse.

这些人中有许多并不知道，他们正在滋养自己最恐惧的东西。他们在那个体系内与人争斗，以为问题是对方，而对方也以为是他们。其实都不是。他们本可以双双逃离，在新体系中看到彼此的美好。那个体系本就是为胁迫控制设计的。

And many of those people, they don't know that they're feeding the thing they're most scared of. And they're fighting with people within that system thinking that it's the other person and the other person thinks it's them. And it's neither. It's they could both people could escape and they could see how beautiful both of the people are on the new system. The and so that system is designed for coercion control.

对吧？它必须看起来是这样。如果你在滋养它...所以我想说的不是我不在乎。我不让那种真正低频的能量影响我。而且...

Right? It's it's it has to look like that. And if you're feeding it, if you're and so what I'm saying is not that I don't care. I don't let that energy that which is really low frequency energy touch me. And

那么你认为，AI是否会加速当前体系的衰落？我的意思是，如果我们拥有了这些AI代理和超级智能，它们终将需要一种货币来相互交易，最终可能会选择比特币。

so do you think that one of the things that could actually accelerate the decline of the current system is AI in the sense that if we get these AI agents and superintelligence, they're gonna, at some point, need a money to transact between each other, and they may end up picking Bitcoin.

不，完全不是你说的那样。明白吗？

Yeah. So not the way that you just described at all. Right?

好吧，说说你的观点。

Okay. Tell me what you're saying.

我并不是说不能围绕'需要交易聪'来创建业务——你确实可以。当企业试图在这个体系中创造更多价值时，这种情况很可能会发生。但记住我之前说的：这些价格终将归零。AI之间交互时不需要向对方支付——AI要钱干什么？

So so and I'm not saying that that couldn't not you couldn't create a business on needing transact sats on on that and you could create a business. So that is likely to happen as individual companies try to create more value on this system, but remember, I said before, these those prices are gonna fall to zero. AI won't need something to interact with another AI to pay the other AI. Why does the AI need the money?

用来支付算力费用。

To pay for compute.

但支付算力的不是AI，而是公司。懂吗？是人在支付算力费用。所以这些最终都会重新中心化。

But it's not the AI paying for compute, it's a company paying for compute. Mhmm. Right? It's somebody paying for compute. And so they're under the same thing as and so all these things just centralize would would centralize up.

这些价格将持续无限下跌，进而带动所有领域价格永久下跌。更简单的说法是：比特币强加的纪律让自由市场得以运转。现在你再也无法逃避自由市场了，对吧？

And and so these prices continue to fall fall in this forever. They drive falling prices everywhere else for forever. What it's easier to say just Bitcoin imposes a discipline that makes the fit free market work. And now now you have no place to hide from the free market. Right?

自由市场正在被强加，这是第一个全球自由市场，你有机会通过转向比特币来为其做出贡献并从中受益。或者你可以留在中心化市场中，它只会越来越中心化，被困在那里。所以与其思考比特币，不如把它看作是一个工具的使用者——就像AI将比特币作为工具使用，从而拥有超越我们所有人的神级超级智能。它就像任何工具一样，只是一个极其强大的工具，强大到前所未见。

The free market is it is being it is being imposed, first global free market and you have your chance to contribute to it and benefit from it by moving to Bitcoin. Or you could stay in a centralized market that it has to get more and more centralized and be stuck there. So so so in in that, instead of thinking about Bitcoin, that's where instead of thinking about Bitcoin as the user of a tool that is is then they sorry, an AI using Bitcoin as a user of a tool that then has this super intelligence that's a god like intelligence that's over all of us because it's using Bitcoin. It's just like any tool. It's a powerful, powerful tool, like like any that we unlike anything we've ever seen.

它将在药物发现、物理学等领域表现出惊人的能力，发现我们因时间限制而未能察觉的模式，你将能理解这些模式。换句话说，这是巨大的生产力提升，就像从铁锹升级到蒸汽铲的跨越。明白吗？这种生产力飞跃让你事半功倍，看得更多，解决问题更快。

And it will make it will be incredible at finding drug discovery, a whole bunch of other stuff, things in physics that we haven't patterns that we haven't been able to see with our time, you'll be able to understand those patterns. In other words, it's a massive productivity enhancement. It's like going orders of magnitude from going from a shovel to a steam shovel. Right? Massive productivity improvements that allow you to do way more for less, see more things, solve problems faster.

但我们人类是超级的，我们高于它。我们才是超级计算机。它只是生产力工具，一个惊人的生产力工具。除非你相信你刚才说的那套，否则你会担心被特斯拉、谷歌、Deepsea控制的AI——这些最终都会被政府控制（如果还没被控制的话），这是必然的，对吧？因为它们只能在获得公民赋权的国家体系内运作。

But we we are super we're we're higher than it. We're the supercomputer. It's just a tool of productivity, a staggering tool of productivity that And unless you believe what you just the way that you said, then you would be worried about the AIs that that are controlled by Tesla or or Google and or or Deepsea or or which would eventually be controlled by the government if they're not already. That would have to happen, right? Because they're only allowed domain to work inside a country that gains its powers from its citizens from that system.

所以这些AI肯定会被政府接管，它们会被去中心化。如果你认为这个超级智能系统凌驾于你之上，而不是为你服务，你可能会越来越恐惧，反而会加速这种局面的实现。

So those would be taken, right, by the government for sure. They would be sent sent decentralized. And so if you think this system is this super intelligence is over you and it looks like that to you instead of in service to you, you'll probably be more and more afraid of that and you'll probably make it happen more.

那么你认为那些购买MicroStrategy这类伪比特币替代品的人，是否还停留在法币思维里，根本没明白正在发生的革命？

So do you think that all the sort of semi pseudo Bitcoin is out there that are buying things like MicroStrategy instead of Bitcoin are still just living in Fiatland that don't understand what's really happening here?

我不想这么说，因为我现在正在撤离加拿大。

I don't wanna say that because I still now I'm exiting Canada.

你还好吗？

How are you?

是的，关于这一点还有更多内容。我们可以进一步讨论。但我仍然持有RSPs（注册退休储蓄计划），因为有税务和那些RSPs，而且我可能不会持有太久了。那些RSPs不在TFSA（免税储蓄账户）里。

Yeah. And more on that. We can talk more about it. But the I still have RSPs because there are tax and and those and and those RSPs, and I might not vary for much longer. Those RSPs are in nor TFSA.

在加拿大，有些税务规定我仍需遵守。我很久以前买了MicroStrategy的股票。现在我绝不会只投资MicroStrategy。明白吗？我劝所有人或者说告诉所有人必须转向自主托管比特币，运行节点等等。

In Canada, there's tax rules that I still have. I bought MicroStrategy a long time ago. Now I would never only do MicroStrategy. Right? I convince everybody to or tell everybody have to get into self custody Bitcoin, run a node, and things.

但如果他们想在这方面有所涉猎，人各有志。我确实认为，如果人们觉得那里的回报永远会高得多，就会有更多公司涌入并降低标准。他们会试图推动一轮巨大的炒作周期。然后可能在另一边的低谷期，所有因过度杠杆而崩溃的机构平仓时，对那些公司来说将是可怕的——当他们同时无法出售比特币却被迫抛售时，价格下跌。所以观察这些市场狂热会很有趣。再次强调，这又回到了自主托管——我建议人们这么做。

But if they wanted to have something in that to each their own, I do think if people think that the returns forever will be way higher there, you'll you'll have a bunch of more companies that'll race in and lower their standards. They'll try it'll drive a massive hype cycle. And then the probably the next down on the other side, all the broken bodies unwinding because they they levered too much is gonna be horrific for a bunch of those companies as they start selling their Bitcoin into the market at the same time they can't sell their Bitcoin, right, and prices down. So it's gonna be interesting to watch animal spirits on these things. And and I think and so again, it just goes back to that self custody that people I would recommend them do it doing.

但我能看到很多人首先选择他们认为更容易的入门方式。然后他们后来就被割韭菜了。

But I can see a lot of people first an easier way they think to get in is this way. And then they then they get rug pulled later on.

是的，我能100%预见那个未来。所以你是在用实际行动和金钱投票，可能还要离开加拿大？

Yeah. That makes I I could do a 100% see that future coming. So you're voting with your feet, voting with your money, and potentially leaving Canada?

没错，我正在办理相关手续。

Yeah. I'm going through the process right now.

你能透露打算去哪里吗？还是对此保密？

Where do you can you are you gonna say where you're going, or are keeping that secret?

是的，我现在不能说我要去哪里，但可以说目前有90%的把握，我正在努力验证这是否是一个可行的选择，以及何时可行。

Yeah. I can't I can't say where I'm going right now, but I've so and I'm, I'd say, let's say 90% right now, I'm doing the work to say to to make that to see if that's a viable option or how when that's a viable option.

为什么会这样？是因为你看到我们之前讨论过的那种反乌托邦地狱景象正在加拿大上演吗？

And and why is that? Is that because you see this kind of dystopian hellscape that we talked about earlier coming to Canada?

没错。我看着加拿大的发展方向，就觉得我们走错了路。有些国家会大量印钞，然后说服社会自由将更难定义。

Yeah. I I just see see if I look at Canada where it's going, I just see that that we're on the wrong path. Right? Some country some countries are going to do a lot more printing. Right, and convince the society that and freedoms are gonna be harder to define.

那些国家将面临财富税、没收性税收等一系列问题。可悲的是，你会看到这些国家的公民投票支持更多此类政策，因为他们根本不知道实际发生了什么。

Those companies will those countries will face wealth taxes, those confiscatory taxes, whole bunch of things that will happen. And unfortunately, you can see citizens in those countries voting for more of that because they don't know what's actually happening.

所以现在大多数西方国家都在持续衰退。你认为世界上哪些地区会从这种转变中受益最多？

So there's this sort of like constant degradation in most Western countries at the moment. Which areas of the world do you think will benefit most from this transition?

我认为是南方国家，这些地区被剥削了数百年之久。但受益的未必是国家本身或统治者，而是这些国家的许多普通民众。你也看到了——我们一起去过这些地区，看到循环经济正在兴起，人们正转向新体系，他们正在挣脱旧枷锁。

I think the global South, which has had been extracted from for hundreds of years, right? More than that. But I think that many of those countries not the the country, maybe not the dictator or whoever in the country, but many of the citizens themselves in those countries. You see you see this too. You've been to some of these regions with me and you see these circular economies popping up and these people are are on a new system and they're emerging they're they're They've freed themselves from the same thing.

这就是为什么这对地球上每个人都适用。如果他们知道，就能把时间和精力投入新体系，而且没人能阻止他们。

And that's that's why this is true for every single human being on the planet. If they knew, they can move time and energy into the new system without and they can't be stopped.

事实上，他们从中获益最多，正如你所说，他们一直被不断榨取。我们西方人是这种制度的受益者，但当你身处其中时，摆脱那个体系转向比特币能带来巨大收益。

And they actually have the most to gain in that in the sense that, as you say, they're just constantly extracted from. Like, we're the beneficiaries of that in the West, but, like, when you're under that rule, like, you have so much to gain by moving out of that system and moving to Bitcoin.

是的。我过去在许多播客中都说过，如果你思考技术如何演进，总是新进入者引领变革。这次更强大，因为这是一个协议。假设它只是技术——协议是赢家通吃，技术则是赢家占优。

Yeah. And I've said this on many podcasts in the past, but if you think about how technology evolves, it's always the the new entrant, and in this case, it's it's even more powerful because this is a protocol. But let's just assume it was a just a technology. So a difference there just for protocols are winner take all. Technologies are winner take most.

那么新技术最初在哪里涌现？通常垄断企业——技术出现前的巨头——从不采用新技术。他们试图阻挠它、扼杀它。

And so but but new technologies, where did they emerge first? Right? The the what typically happens is a monopoly, the biggest company pre pre the the technology never uses a technology. They try to block it. They try to stop it.

为什么？因为他们是垄断者，手握所有权力。但离垄断越远、权力越小的群体总是率先行动，他们从外部构建并颠覆，这就是熊彼特所说的创造性破坏——正在发生的现实。

Why? Because they're closer They're they're the monopoly. They have all the power. But the further away from the monopoly you are, who has little power, they always go first and they build and it disrupts from the outside and the creative destruction. Joseph Schumpeter talked about it and that's that's what's happening.

如果把货币垄断考虑进来，你播客的大部分听众都处于货币垄断游戏的顶端。而游戏底层的群体有更强动力——他们离垄断最远，所以率先行动。这就是萨尔瓦多成为首个比特币本位国家的原因。

And now if you just said the monopoly of money, most of the people that watch your podcast are are at the top of the monopoly of money game. So at the bottom of that game, there's people that it's there's a greater incentive. They're further away from the monopoly and they go first. And so that's what's that's what's happening. It's that's why through that lens, it's really easy to see why El Salvador was the first country that went to Bitcoin standard.

确实有道理。我大概每半年就需要听杰夫·布斯的观点来重新校准自己。虽然你解释时我能理解，但很难将这种认知贯穿到生活中——我终究会回到法币世界，所以很感谢你帮我重新聚焦。

Yeah. It makes sense. I I'm glad like, every six months or so, I need just my fill of Jeff Booth to kind of lock back in. Because I when when you explain this to me, it does make sense, but it's very hard to carry that through to, like, the rest of your life. Like, I'll I'll go out and I'll live in Fiatland again at some point, and I really enjoy getting you just to kind of hone me back in.

但我觉得这是个很好的启示——对听众也如此，因为这是人之常情。即使现在完全不接触比特币的人也会想‘我该怎么做？从哪里开始？’然后因恐惧而却步。

It's but I think that that's a really good takeaway. I think that's a good takeaway for anybody listening to this because that's the normal thing that people would do. Right? You know this is true and then what happens even for people that aren't in Bitcoin at all right now, what they go to is they'll think, okay, I need to do this, but then have fear about how do I start? Where do I start?

我该怎么做呢？然后他们就会留在法币世界。如果情况越来越糟，他们两年后再看另一个播客，可能又会做同样的事。对吧？所以关键在于从某件事开始。

How do I do it? And then they'll stay and fiat land. If things will get worse and worse and worse and they'll see another podcast two years later and then they might do the same thing again. Right? And so it just takes it takes starting with something.

如果你现在100%的时间都花在法币世界，那就花1%在比特币上。保持好奇心就好。从1%开始，然后2%，4%，8%。你会注意到变化，就像丹尼你感受到的那样。每次投入更多时间，你的时间就变得更宝贵。

If you're spending a 100% of your time in Fiat land right now, spend 1% in Bitcoin. Just get curious. If you're spending 1%, then 2%, then 4%, then 8%. And and you'll notice, you'll feel it just like you you feel it Danny. The every time you move more time, your time is more valuable.

它会回馈给你。就像一面镜子，直接反射回来。你的时间更有价值，你在主动付出能量。而不是被旧体系榨取能量去供养它，你真正选择了将能量给予这个必须回馈你的体系。嗯。

It comes back to you. It's just a mirror. It just comes straight back to you and that your time is more valuable and you're giving your energy. Instead of having your energy extracted to feed this other system, you're truly choosing to give your energy to the system that has to give back to you. Mhmm.

我是说...这真是...占用你周日的时间，我真的很感激你这么做。你一直忙着从旧体系抽资投入比特币新体系。你刚筹集了1亿美元对吧？

I mean and and that's so I've taken your time on a Sunday here, and I really appreciate you, you doing this. You've been busy taking money from the old system to invest in the the new Bitcoin system. You just raised a $100,000,000. Is that right?

对。是的。整整1亿，

Yep. Yeah. That's That's 100 mean,

首先这太疯狂了。这是有史以来最大的比特币基金吗？

first of all, that's insane. Is that is that the largest Bitcoin fund ever?

没错。史上首个纯比特币基金。

It is. Bitcoin only fund ever.

那么你对此有什么计划？你想关注什么？你觉得有趣的东西在哪里？

And so and what's your plan with that? What do you wanna like, what where are you looking? Where do you think the interesting things are?

我想说的是，我们上次操作的金额大约是2620万，然后我们又做了一个750万的SPV。所以第一支基金总共略超3500万。但那时比特币作为协议还处于早期阶段，闪电网络、液态网络、联邦协议等一大堆东西都刚起步，你需要花时间帮助这些公司成长。我们的论点是这些第二层、第三层技术会逐渐发展，形成生态系统并扩大，然后交易速度就会随之提升。

So what I would say is, you know, the last one we did, I think it was 26,200,000.0, then we did an SPV for 7 and a half. So so just over 35,000,000 about 35,000,000 in the first fund. But at that time, Bitcoin was at least as a protocol, Lightning, Liquid, Fediment, a whole bunch of other stuff. It was just so so early that you needed to spend time and help these companies mature. And the thesis was this would start to evolve and these second layers and third layers would evolve and you'd have this ecosystem that spread and then the velocity would increase from there.

事实正是如此。在那支基金里，我们没有——我不是说将来不会有——但确实没有一家公司失败。这对于初创风投、种子期风投来说简直不可思议，

That's exactly what's happened. Right? So what's happened is as in that fund there we don't I'm not saying we won't, but we don't have a company that's failed. That's is like unreal for for venture for startup venture capital, seed stage venture capital without

通常一家公司能成功就算十分之一了。

a company be looking at, like, one in 10 that would succeed.

十分之一的成功率。而我们不仅没有失败案例，还有一家正在被收购，两家已经实现高额盈利且增长迅猛，其他公司也在追赶。这说明A轮基金和更大规模的基金现在开始注意到这个趋势，整个生态系统正在升温，价值不断被创造，更多资本会追逐那些成功的企业和生态。这就是正在发生的事情。

One in 10 would succeed. So to not have any companies that fail fail one that's that's that's already going through an acquisition, two that are already very very profitable and growing extraordinary fast and a bunch of others that are kind of chasing those. It makes sense that series a fund, bigger funds would now start seeing what's happening and this ecosystem would be heating up and there'd be a whole bunch of value being created and they would want and more capital would chase companies that that are winning and more of this ecosystem. So that's all that's happened. Right?

但这同时也说明我们处于多么早期且艰难的阶段，因为大部分资金还在流向加密货币和其他无意义领域。不过有笔资金很有意思——来自我们一位创始人，他在委内瑞拉。他说：如果你在委内瑞拉持有美元会怎样？你能避开货币贬值。而如果你创办一家在委内瑞拉创造更多美元的公司呢？

The but it also describes how painful, how crazy early we are in this because the majority of capital is still going into crypto and other nonsense. But this this capital is actually, this came from one of our company founders, and I loved it. And he's in they were in Venezuela. And and and he said, what would it be like if you just held dollars, US dollars, if you were in Venezuela? You would escape the currency devaluation and you look because then what it would look like if you built a company creating more US dollars in Venezuela.

对吧？这样你就拥有了真实的东西——资产负债表以美元增长，不仅规避了货币贬值，还在自由市场中创造了价值。如今每个比特币持有者都活在委内瑞拉式的环境里，只是他们还没意识到。

Right? Now you have something real. You have something that's that your balance sheet is growing in dollars and you're not just protecting a currency devaluation, you're building value in the free market. Now, every single person today, for Bitcoiners live in Venezuela. They just don't know it.

许多生活在委内瑞拉的比特币持有者只是持币观望。如果他们正在创建公司，通过扩展自由市场来增加资产负债表会怎样？这正是风险投资领域正在发生的，也是这些公司正在经历的。虽然你需要做出正确决策，这比单纯购买比特币风险更大，但潜在回报也极其可观——因为你在构建唯一能创造更多比特币资产的方式，就是在他人眼中及比特币之上的自由市场创造更多价值。通过这样做，你既扩展了自由市场，又推动了基于比特币的价值增长，同时还在比特币上建立了资产负债表。

And a lot of those Bitcoiners that live in Venezuela are just holding. What if they're building companies that are adding more balance to their balance sheet by extending the free market? That's what's that's what's happening in venture capital, that's what's happening in these companies. And it's and you still have to be right, there's more risk there than just by buying Bitcoin, but there's also potentially incredible return because you're building the only way you can create could create more Bitcoin on your balance sheet is create more value in somebody else's eyes and the free market on top of Bitcoin. And and by doing so, you extend both the free market and the the things that are building and all the more value that's coming on top of Bitcoin, but you're also building balance sheet in Bitcoin.

目前是否有足够优质的早期比特币公司来实际部署1亿美元资金？

Are there enough, like, good early stage Bitcoin companies to actually deploy a $100,000,000?

有，绝对有。我们被眼前涌现的巨大机会震撼到了。当你深入其中时会发现这太疯狂了。这也正是我之前说的——如果不全身心投入，我根本不会意识到这点。

Yes. Simply yes. We've been we've been blown away by how much much opportunity there is. It's a it's it's wild when you're in here. And and this is actually why I would same thing we were talking before, I wouldn't have known this unless I moved all my time into it.

我原本也会像大多数旁观者那样，认为发展太慢、没人用于支付。如果你置身于另一个世界并投入全部时间，就看不到这里的发展速度。但这恰恰为人们提供了机遇——他们可以参加聚会、结识他人，只需投入更多时间就会被感染，因为这里有太多机会。杰夫，我几乎感到惭愧，

I would have actually thought the same thing that most people are spending looking at this just from the sidelines and saying, it's moving too slow or there's nobody using it as payments or if you look if you're inside the other world and you're spending all your time there, you wouldn't see how fast this is developing. But that's also provides the opportunity for people too because they could go to meetups, they could go to see other people, they could just spend more time and by spending more time, they'll be infected because there'd be there's so much other opportunity here. I almost feel embarrassed, Jeff,

整场节目我背后都显示着比特币兑美元的价格。我得改掉这个，应该直接显示1比特币等于1比特币。

that I've got the price of Bitcoin in dollars behind me this entire show. I just need to change that so it just says one Bitcoin equals 1 Bitcoin.

是啊，没错。

Yeah. Yeah.

但我非常感激这次交流。谢谢你周日抽出一小时参与。一个月后巴厘岛见，我们到时候

But I massively appreciate the time. Thank you for taking an hour out of your Sunday to do this. I'm gonna see you in a month in Bali as well. We'll go for

一个配置。那将会非常棒。

a setup. That's gonna be awesome.

那么杰夫，人们在哪里能找到你？你现在不怎么用推特了，是只玩Nostr了吗？

So where do people find you, Jeff? You're you're not really on Twitter anymore. Are you Noster only now?

是的，我只用Nostr。我选择Nostr的原因很简单——如果你了解AI的发展方向，知道AI已经达到的水平，还待在中心化系统里获取所有信息，那你就是在被收割。

Yeah. I'm Nostril only. And I'm on Nostril only for the for the very same reason. If you if you know what where AI is going, if you know where AI already is and you're in a centralized system with AI, and that's that's where you're getting all your information, you are being farmed.

其实我本来要结束节目了，但得问问你关于Nostr的事。你会投资那些能带来'自我消亡'体验的Nostr公司吗？

Are you actually, I'm I'm been closing out the show, but I should ask you about Nostra. Are you gonna invest in any Nostra companies with ego death?

目前我们还没看到合适的项目，虽然有些不错的公司，但还没遇到指标、估值和公司本身都符合要求的。新基金是A轮基金，项目需要更成熟些。

So we haven't seen anything yet that there's there's some good there's some good companies, but we haven't seen anything that that right metrics, right valuation, right right company yet. We've looked at a whole bunch. The new fund is a series a fund, they'd have to be further along.

明白了，好的。

I see. Okay.

但要记住自由市场的残酷性——Nostr是底层协议，意味着随时可能有新客户端冒出来。如果你建立了巨大护城河并获取高额利润，第二天、第三天就会冒出竞争者。比特币生态也是如此，所以必须深思熟虑：如何持续为用户创造价值，并从中逐步获取合理收益。关键在于商业模型的精心设计。

And just remember why that's so hard though in the free market. Because Noster is at the protocol, that means any client on top of it can be another client can be spun up tomorrow, another one the next day, that next day, the next day. So if you created a huge moat and you were extracting a whole bunch of margin, you would have a competitor day two, day three, day four because you so so but that's how all of things look on Bitcoin. So you have to really be thoughtful in how am I gonna give enduring value to users and make a little bit over over over time from that. And so it's just that you have to be very thoughtful in your in your creation of what that model looks like.

那么你们必须不断创新，以提供更多价值。我认为通过Noster以及Noster与Lightning、Fetamant或Cashew的整合，会有许多令人兴奋的事情发生。虽然有很多不同的东西即将到来，但我们目前还没有看到任何让我们下定决心投入的。

Then you're gonna have to constantly innovate to deliver more value in that. I think there's lots of exciting things coming through Noster and the integration of Noster and Lightning and Fetamant or Cashew. There's lots of different things coming, but it's just we haven't seen anything yet that we've we've we've pulled the trigger on.

但显然，这是一只针对比特币公司的基金。你们仍然愿意进行Noster相关的投资。

But obviously, this was a fund for Bitcoin companies. You'd still be open to doing, like, Noster investments.

哦，当然。是的，我非常支持Nostril。

Oh, of course. Yeah. Like, I'm very pro Nostril.

是的，这非常酷。我最近在那里花的时间越来越多，感觉它变得越来越好。比如，所有东西的用户界面在过去几年里有了巨大的改进。但我确实觉得我们还在等待那个杀手级的Nostre应用出现。

Yeah. That's very cool. I mean, I've I've been spending more and more time there, and, like, it's just getting better and better. Like, the the UI of everything is improved so much in the last couple of years. I I think we I I do feel like we're waiting for sort of the killer Nostre app, though.

是的。我认为那个杀手级的Nostre应用不会像大多数人现在想象的那样。它不会来自一个Twitter的克隆品。我完全同意这一点。

Yeah. And I I think that the the killer Nostre app isn't I I don't think it it won't look like most people are thinking it right now. It won't come from a Twitter clone. I agree. I totally agree.

它也不会来自一个YouTube的克隆品。它会来自某种整合了这些功能再加上其他创新的东西，创造出我们尚未知晓的新设计空间。

It won't come it won't from come from a YouTube clone. It'll come from something that's integrated that does this plus this plus something over here that creates a new space, new design space that we don't know yet.

是的。实际上我觉得白噪音非常有趣。他们正在做这种加密聊天，类似Signal的聊天，但是带有Gnostic连接。我觉得这很酷。但我完全同意，Twitter的克隆品很难在那种方式上击败中心化系统，如果你只是复制它的话。

Yeah. I I actually think white noise is really interesting. You know, they're doing this sort of encrypted chat signal like chat, but with Gnostic connections. I think that's cool. But I totally agree that I don't think that the Twitter clone I think it's very hard to beat a centralized system in that way if you're just copying it.

我认为你需要尝试些新东西。

I think you need to do something new.

是啊。那那那为什么呢？对吧？因为因为新公司有或者新的，对，新公司或新协议必须提供10倍的价值。嗯。

Yeah. And and and why is that? Right? Because because the new company has or the new, yeah, new company or new protocol or has to deliver 10 times more value. Mhmm.

因为网络效应。由于网络效应的存在。要克服这种网络效应，人们不会为一点点价值就改变。如果新公司需要向所有人营销，而你又在营销上花钱，对吧，你无法仅凭营销预算吸引足够多的人。这就是为什么它必须提供如此引人注目的价值。

Because of network effects. Because of the network effect. To overcome that network effect, everybody people don't change for a little bit of value. And if the new company has to market to all those people and you're spending money marketing, right, The you're you can't pull enough people away on a marketing budget. That's why you have to it has to provide such compelling value.

就像，这就是为什么你需要提供比其他任何东西高出10倍的价值才能实现巨大加速。因为那样的话，不是靠营销告诉人们你更好，而是产品本身在人们生活中确实好得多。嗯。

Like, that's why you use 10 times more value than anything else to have a massive acceleration. Because then then it's not a market the marketing that you're telling people you're better, the product is that much better in somebody's life. Mhmm.

除非我们遭遇疯狂的审查力度，否则我看不出这怎么能赢。

And unless we get like a crazy amount of censorship, I don't see how that wins.

所以这就是关键。除非...想想所有的机器人和各种手段，即使有那些以及X平台里你知道的审查机制——比如你的点赞数等数据都被夸大，让人误以为内容被更多人看到。所有这些手段都存在，但对大多数人来说这个新事物仍然感觉不到有10倍优势。嗯。它可能已经是10倍了。

So that's the that's the point. Unless so so most people through all of the if you think about all of the bots and everything else and that that they even with all of that and the censorship that you know is in in x, in that you know your likes and everything else are being oversubscribed to make it look like appear that you're seeing being seen by more people. You know all of these things exist, and it still feels like this other thing for most people isn't 10 x. Yeah. It might already be 10 x.

只是需要让人们意识到它确实好10倍，或者它需要达到这个标准。

The it's just they it would do people to realize that it's 10 x better or or it needs to be.

是的，我完全同意。杰夫，这太棒了。非常感谢，我真的很感激。

Yeah. I totally agree. Jeff, this has been amazing. Thank you for this. I really appreciate it.

你也是。期待几周后能一起聚聚。

And You too. Looking forward to hanging out in a few weeks' time.

是啊，我也是。

Yeah. Me too.

太好了。谢谢你，杰夫。

Cool. Thank you, Jeff.

不客气。再见，伙计。

You bet. See you, buddy.