未来二十年会更繁荣吗？与拉斯·特维德探讨经济周期、中国创新与中美AI新格局 | S9E40

So, these robots, if you take a Unity robot, uh, they cost about what 16,000 dollars or something like that.

So, these robots, if you take a Unity robot, uh, they cost about what 16,000 dollars or something like that.

The price will, uh, you know knowing what China does, the price will go down and down, the quality will go up and up.

The price will, uh, you know knowing what China does, the price will go down and down, the quality will go up and up.

I think it's like more like a 5 6 thousand US dollar.

I think it's like more like a 5 6 thousand US dollar.

And they will, uh, uh, so, and of course you have to depreciate them, but maybe they can work 20 or 30 thousand hours.

And they will, uh, uh, so, and of course you have to depreciate them, but maybe they can work 20 or 30 thousand hours.

And uh and then they need the electricity.

And uh and then they need the electricity.

And the cost of the electricity is such that you can probably all included run them for somewhere between less than a dollar per hour and 2 dollars an hour.

And the cost of the electricity is such that you can probably all included run them for somewhere between less than a dollar per hour and 2 dollars an hour.

So I think that the robots will also be incredibly defleshy, so you have AI and robots incredibly defleshy, so my my view on this is that we are facing a period where we'll have Extremely low inflation, and we'll have exceptionally high innovation. So, we'll have a period that's.

So I think that the robots will also be incredibly defleshy, so you have AI and robots incredibly defleshy, so my my view on this is that we are facing a period where we'll have Extremely low inflation, and we'll have exceptionally high innovation. So, we'll have a period that's.

similar to what I described before, these Goldilocks periods with lots of bubbles.

similar to what I described before, these Goldilocks periods with lots of bubbles.

But this one will be in a completely different order of magnitude, because the innovation is absolutely rampant right now. um, So I I think that.

But this one will be in a completely different order of magnitude, because the innovation is absolutely rampant right now. um, So I I think that.

The environment for financial investments will be exceptionally good, in general, over the next, I don't know, 20 years, or something like that. And I also think it will be exceptionally volatile.

The environment for financial investments will be exceptionally good, in general, over the next, I don't know, 20 years, or something like that. And I also think it will be exceptionally volatile.

uh, Volatile, because there will be so much money going into financial investments that will create one bubble after another.

uh, Volatile, because there will be so much money going into financial investments that will create one bubble after another.

That doesn't mean I don't I don't think, for instance, many people are asking whether AI is a bubble right now.

That doesn't mean I don't I don't think, for instance, many people are asking whether AI is a bubble right now.

um, So, AI companies, um, like, for instance, OpenAI is thinking about going public at 1 trillion dollars. That's not cheap, but um.

um, So, AI companies, um, like, for instance, OpenAI is thinking about going public at 1 trillion dollars. That's not cheap, but um.

The one thing that I think m- might be a a bubble right now is gold.

The one thing that I think m- might be a a bubble right now is gold.

um, But not.

um, But not.

Sorry, you think that gold gold gold is a at bubble or not? Yeah, I I think gold.

Sorry, you think that gold gold gold is a at bubble or not? Yeah, I I think gold.

Gold looks to me like a bubble.

Gold looks to me like a bubble.

OK.

OK.

uh, But I but I don't think that AI is a bubble.

uh, But I but I don't think that AI is a bubble.

I think that AI will evolve so quickly and create so many different a- applications that Very high valuations are generally justified.

I think that AI will evolve so quickly and create so many different a- applications that Very high valuations are generally justified.

So, you know, NVIDIA just hit 5 trillion US dollars market cap.

So, you know, NVIDIA just hit 5 trillion US dollars market cap.

Yesterday, yes, this is a historical point.

Yesterday, yes, this is a historical point.

Yes, because when you start comparing the value of a single share to the GDP of the country, that's amazing, that's really amazing.

Yes, because when you start comparing the value of a single share to the GDP of the country, that's amazing, that's really amazing.

And I think in in your view, there is no AI bubble at all.

And I think in in your view, there is no AI bubble at all.

And in in term of the business cycles, do you still think that we are in early stage?

And in in term of the business cycles, do you still think that we are in early stage?

Or you think we are like somewhere in the middle already?

Or you think we are like somewhere in the middle already?

Well, I I can hmm talk about the US and China separately, um, perhaps also, uh, uh, sure, sure, yeah. A few words about um Europe, but.

Well, I I can hmm talk about the US and China separately, um, perhaps also, uh, uh, sure, sure, yeah. A few words about um Europe, but.

If we take uh the US, I think we are at the early stage of um up cycle.

If we take uh the US, I think we are at the early stage of um up cycle.

And if we go a few years back, I think we have had what you call rolling uh recessions.

And if we go a few years back, I think we have had what you call rolling uh recessions.

So we had different sec- sections uh of the economy that were in recession.

So we had different sec- sections uh of the economy that were in recession.

uh, But not enough to to create a general recession.

uh, But not enough to to create a general recession.

uh, So, a part of it was being the office market.

uh, So, a part of it was being the office market.

um, There's been some uh consu- uh consumer spending in different areas like services and restaurants and different areas.

um, There's been some uh consu- uh consumer spending in different areas like services and restaurants and different areas.

So one area After another, in the US economy was quite weak, uh, but was still chugging along.

So one area After another, in the US economy was quite weak, uh, but was still chugging along.

What we've seen since the launch of GGP 3.5 is this beginning of this accelerating Capital spending in in and around AI, uh, which also includes in energy.

What we've seen since the launch of GGP 3.5 is this beginning of this accelerating Capital spending in in and around AI, uh, which also includes in energy.

So, in my opi- in my opinion, energy is a part of the tech stack of AI.

So, in my opi- in my opinion, energy is a part of the tech stack of AI.

uh, um, because energy is really critical, and on the late latest quarters, about 40 percent of the growth in the US economy.

uh, um, because energy is really critical, and on the late latest quarters, about 40 percent of the growth in the US economy.

Comes from uh equipment in mainly in AI, and this quite remarkable because uh the capital spending in the in the equipment is something like 6 or 7 percent of the economy.

Comes from uh equipment in mainly in AI, and this quite remarkable because uh the capital spending in the in the equipment is something like 6 or 7 percent of the economy.

So, a very small part of the economy contributes 40 percent of overall uh growth, whereas consumer spending is 68 percent of the economy.

So, a very small part of the economy contributes 40 percent of overall uh growth, whereas consumer spending is 68 percent of the economy.

And that that contributes you know about the same or a little bit more.

And that that contributes you know about the same or a little bit more.

uh, So, it's really really kept suspense driven.

uh, So, it's really really kept suspense driven.

And then we are also in the US at the early phases of uhInterest rate cutting cycle.

And then we are also in the US at the early phases of uhInterest rate cutting cycle.

um, So, w- when interest rates come down, mortgage rates come down, I think that will lead to a a improvement of the property market, so.

um, So, w- when interest rates come down, mortgage rates come down, I think that will lead to a a improvement of the property market, so.

Residential property markets.

Residential property markets.

So, the way I see it is, and us, we have two big contributors to the business cycles, which is capital spending.

So, the way I see it is, and us, we have two big contributors to the business cycles, which is capital spending.

And property markets will now, in the coming years, stimulate the economy.

And property markets will now, in the coming years, stimulate the economy.

So, we are likely to have high growth, and we also like to have, likely to have contained or low inflation, in my opinion.

So, we are likely to have high growth, and we also like to have, likely to have contained or low inflation, in my opinion.

So, the US is in a very good uh space.

So, the US is in a very good uh space.

uh, You have to say though, also that the US equities are not cheap.

uh, You have to say though, also that the US equities are not cheap.

So, it has to been been, it has been to some degree discounted, but I think that it's it's heading towards high growth.

So, it has to been been, it has been to some degree discounted, but I think that it's it's heading towards high growth.

And then if you come to to China, the story is quite different because You can call the Chinese economy a managed depression, and what I mean by that is, manage the depression, yeah, managed depression.

And then if you come to to China, the story is quite different because You can call the Chinese economy a managed depression, and what I mean by that is, manage the depression, yeah, managed depression.

uh, OK, that's a new word.

uh, OK, that's a new word.

Yeah, and and I want to explain that very well.

Yeah, and and I want to explain that very well.

uh, well, as as as good, as well as I can. So first of all.

uh, well, as as as good, as well as I can. So first of all.

I've been following uh the Chinese economy very very closely, and I have uh from time to time over the last 30 years been heavily invested in in China.

I've been following uh the Chinese economy very very closely, and I have uh from time to time over the last 30 years been heavily invested in in China.

So, I was you know fully aware of of something that look quite extreme in the Chinese economy, and that was the property, if you know, ac- activity re- related to properties, uh, peaked at 28 percent of the Chinese GDP.

So, I was you know fully aware of of something that look quite extreme in the Chinese economy, and that was the property, if you know, ac- activity re- related to properties, uh, peaked at 28 percent of the Chinese GDP.

A few years ago, so 28 percent is very very high, or was very very high.

A few years ago, so 28 percent is very very high, or was very very high.

So in in the business cycle books, it I describe what what these the numbers normally are.

So in in the business cycle books, it I describe what what these the numbers normally are.

So, I would say for an OECD uh country, normally these numbers are like 12 maybe 14 They're not 28 percent.

So, I would say for an OECD uh country, normally these numbers are like 12 maybe 14 They're not 28 percent.

So China was so driven by property investments, and then certainly this thing began to crash.

So China was so driven by property investments, and then certainly this thing began to crash.

And the numbers went all the way down to 12 percent, which is like low normal for uh develop country, and then went up a little bit.

And the numbers went all the way down to 12 percent, which is like low normal for uh develop country, and then went up a little bit.

So my so my way of thinking is, the first thing I think is, wow, that's, it's, it's just like 16 of the Chinese economy just disappeared. How do they manage that? Hahaha. And then um.

So my so my way of thinking is, the first thing I think is, wow, that's, it's, it's just like 16 of the Chinese economy just disappeared. How do they manage that? Hahaha. And then um.

I was really terrified, and then, so, I have a daughter who, uh, she runs a um a fashion of uh uh fashion uh.

I was really terrified, and then, so, I have a daughter who, uh, she runs a um a fashion of uh uh fashion uh.

Accessory company where they produce a lot in China.

Accessory company where they produce a lot in China.

So, she has been going for, since she was 18 years old, when she founded it.

So, she has been going for, since she was 18 years old, when she founded it.

She's, oh, really?

She's, oh, really?

She she's entrepreneur since 18 years old.

She she's entrepreneur since 18 years old.

Yeah, she's, she's, she's 33 now, they have 300 employees now, but she has been going to China like 4 year, four times a year, so, um, since since she was 18 and.

Yeah, she's, she's, she's 33 now, they have 300 employees now, but she has been going to China like 4 year, four times a year, so, um, since since she was 18 and.

And and she's told me that you have to go to China, it's insane what is happening with infrastructure.

And and she's told me that you have to go to China, it's insane what is happening with infrastructure.

um, So I I say, OK, I I, and she said I I can see it from year to year that I come.

um, So I I say, OK, I I, and she said I I can see it from year to year that I come.

Things look different, the trains, that you know, e-, you know, everything I I see is just getting upgraded so quickly.

Things look different, the trains, that you know, e-, you know, everything I I see is just getting upgraded so quickly.

So I went, and I could see that, yeah.

So I went, and I could see that, yeah.

uh, This six.

uh, This six.

When was it?

When was it?

When was it?

When was it?

That that was a bit over a year ago, so I was a city, oh year ago, yeah, city press has published, uh, what is it?

That that was a bit over a year ago, so I was a city, oh year ago, yeah, city press has published, uh, what is it?

I think it's 8 of 6 or 8 of my books.

I think it's 8 of 6 or 8 of my books.

In Chinese, and they invited me to come and do speeches.

In Chinese, and they invited me to come and do speeches.

uh, And I was I was so busy, I I couldn't come, but then she said, you you gotta, you simply have to go and see what's going on in China.

uh, And I was I was so busy, I I couldn't come, but then she said, you you gotta, you simply have to go and see what's going on in China.

So I came, and and then I s- I see everything, and I can see, oh, now understand this the missing 16 percent in property.

So I came, and and then I s- I see everything, and I can see, oh, now understand this the missing 16 percent in property.

Yeah, they invested in an infrastructure, and the infrastructure is now in many places more sophisticated than the most advanced in Europe.

Yeah, they invested in an infrastructure, and the infrastructure is now in many places more sophisticated than the most advanced in Europe.

So, that's how China managed it, simply by saying, OK, we are missing 16 percent in our GDP, GDP, plus we want to have growth, we just invest massively in innovation and infrastructure, and then.

So, that's how China managed it, simply by saying, OK, we are missing 16 percent in our GDP, GDP, plus we want to have growth, we just invest massively in innovation and infrastructure, and then.

uh, So, this is a man, this is my managed depression.

uh, So, this is a man, this is my managed depression.

So, obviously, if, eventually, um, the property market in in China will have cleaned out.

So, obviously, if, eventually, um, the property market in in China will have cleaned out.

The degree, if you will, from previous all investments in property.

The degree, if you will, from previous all investments in property.

um, I had a long talk with Hao Hong, the Hao Hong, the economist.

um, I had a long talk with Hao Hong, the Hao Hong, the economist.

And um and he said he thought it would take another 5 years.

And um and he said he thought it would take another 5 years.

I don't know, it depends uh some some degree on government initiatives.

I don't know, it depends uh some some degree on government initiatives.

um,But it's possible for China to, it has been possible for China to simply redirect and do these infrastructure investments.

um,But it's possible for China to, it has been possible for China to simply redirect and do these infrastructure investments.

And if peo- when people, so I see people talking very positive about the Chinese economy, also people talking very negative about it.

And if peo- when people, so I see people talking very positive about the Chinese economy, also people talking very negative about it.

In the west.

In the west.

So, the people who talk negative about it, they say, uh, they're, you know, they're making bridges to nowhere, and just building infrastructure that nobody needs.

So, the people who talk negative about it, they say, uh, they're, you know, they're making bridges to nowhere, and just building infrastructure that nobody needs.

But if I look at the numbers um on innovation, it's quite clear to me that a lot of the investments are really really efficient for the Chinese economy.

But if I look at the numbers um on innovation, it's quite clear to me that a lot of the investments are really really efficient for the Chinese economy.

So, a really interesting place to look is military intelligence corporation organization called 5EYES.

So, a really interesting place to look is military intelligence corporation organization called 5EYES.

This is United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and UK.

This is United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and UK.

They cooperate on in intelligence matters, or speak the same language, as a culture thing there. And they they hired an Australian research institute.

They cooperate on in intelligence matters, or speak the same language, as a culture thing there. And they they hired an Australian research institute.

To make a map of where different regions in the world are on the most important technologies for the future.

To make a map of where different regions in the world are on the most important technologies for the future.

And um is, this has been going on for some years now.

And um is, this has been going on for some years now.

So, they mapped it back from the first period was 2001 to 2003, and then every few years they they redo the study.

So, they mapped it back from the first period was 2001 to 2003, and then every few years they they redo the study.

So, they did first retroactive, and now they are following it in real time.

So, they did first retroactive, and now they are following it in real time.

um, And now, it's 62 different technologies that are mapping, and out of those 62 To be honest, I can't remember if it's 62 or 64, but it's around the critical technologies for the future. Out of those, now China leads in 57.

um, And now, it's 62 different technologies that are mapping, and out of those 62 To be honest, I can't remember if it's 62 or 64, but it's around the critical technologies for the future. Out of those, now China leads in 57.

What?

What?

What?

What?

That's the majority of them.

That's the majority of them.

Yes, yeah, it's like almost all of them.

Yes, yeah, it's like almost all of them.

I mean, really.

I mean, really.

And if you go back to 2003.

And if you go back to 2003.

What do you think it was?

What do you think it was?

I know, two, ha ha ha, three, ha ha ha.

I know, two, ha ha ha, three, ha ha ha.

You're close, three.

You're close, three.

Maybe none, maybe zero.

Maybe none, maybe zero.

OK.

OK.

Is that, that's not bridges to nowhere.

Is that, that's not bridges to nowhere.

This, this is Money well spent, uh, extremely well spent.

This, this is Money well spent, uh, extremely well spent.

So so what the Chinese economy is doing is, it's building up innovation at an incredible uh speed.

So so what the Chinese economy is doing is, it's building up innovation at an incredible uh speed.

And it's really very very efficient.

And it's really very very efficient.

So I I also read um 5 year plans, and I think that there's a great agreement.

So I I also read um 5 year plans, and I think that there's a great agreement.

Among the, in the leadership and among Chinese economists about some structural issues that's remained though, and one of them is uh uh over capacity in different sectors.

Among the, in the leadership and among Chinese economists about some structural issues that's remained though, and one of them is uh uh over capacity in different sectors.

And that means that if you look at the long term performance of the US stock exchange compared to the Chinese stock exchange, you can see that you would earn a lot more by being invested in American equities than in Chinese equities.

And that means that if you look at the long term performance of the US stock exchange compared to the Chinese stock exchange, you can see that you would earn a lot more by being invested in American equities than in Chinese equities.

uh, And the reason for that, uh, is you can be surprised by that, because China has had much higher growth.

uh, And the reason for that, uh, is you can be surprised by that, because China has had much higher growth.

So what, why have you not made more money in the Chinese equities?

So what, why have you not made more money in the Chinese equities?

But I I once, this is quite some years ago, I I read this analysis that really surprised me.

But I I once, this is quite some years ago, I I read this analysis that really surprised me.

It was somebody had looked at where would you have made most money in the long term, uh, over, I think like 20 years.

It was somebody had looked at where would you have made most money in the long term, uh, over, I think like 20 years.

By being invested in Southeast Asia, which includes China, and South Korea and so on, or being Latin America.

By being invested in Southeast Asia, which includes China, and South Korea and so on, or being Latin America.

So, Lat-, I mean Latin American economy It's OK, but it's not great.

So, Lat-, I mean Latin American economy It's OK, but it's not great.

We can agree on that.

We can agree on that.

South Southeast Asia economies are tigers, I mean, they are going like this.

South Southeast Asia economies are tigers, I mean, they are going like this.

Nevertheless, you would have made more money investing in Latin America.

Nevertheless, you would have made more money investing in Latin America.

than in China, or in Southeast Asia.

than in China, or in Southeast Asia.

The reason being is that the there is something some people called the Asian growth model, which is Very very high investments, your very high savings rate and very high investments in capacity.

The reason being is that the there is something some people called the Asian growth model, which is Very very high investments, your very high savings rate and very high investments in capacity.

So there's always over capacity, and this is also a a a problem that is being discussed in China right now, that there is a tendency To have over capacity in different sectors, and that means that the competition is so hard that they don't really make much money, or any money at all.

So there's always over capacity, and this is also a a a problem that is being discussed in China right now, that there is a tendency To have over capacity in different sectors, and that means that the competition is so hard that they don't really make much money, or any money at all.

And if if we compare the American economy and the Chinese economy for a while, And think about which structural issues do they have that that we can compare.

And if if we compare the American economy and the Chinese economy for a while, And think about which structural issues do they have that that we can compare.

You can say it's really really interesting that They have the opposite problem, and if China would become more like the US, and the US would become more like China, they would both be better off.

You can say it's really really interesting that They have the opposite problem, and if China would become more like the US, and the US would become more like China, they would both be better off.

uh, Let me explain that.

uh, Let me explain that.

So, in the US, consumer spending is almost 70 percent of the economy.

So, in the US, consumer spending is almost 70 percent of the economy.

I think it's 68 percent right now, and in China, it's it's closer to 40 percent, it's really really low.

I think it's 68 percent right now, and in China, it's it's closer to 40 percent, it's really really low.

um, So, China invest invest invest in in production capacity.

um, So, China invest invest invest in in production capacity.

uh, China has what the Americans would call a supply side economy.

uh, China has what the Americans would call a supply side economy.

uh, This is what, for instance, during the Ronald Reagan uh era, he wanted to make supply side economy in the US.

uh, This is what, for instance, during the Ronald Reagan uh era, he wanted to make supply side economy in the US.

There was a whole, there was a period where economists were either supply siders or not supply siders.

There was a whole, there was a period where economists were either supply siders or not supply siders.

So, America wants to make more of a supply side economy right now.

So, America wants to make more of a supply side economy right now.

uh, For them, the fact that 40 percent of of growth now comes from investments in a in equipment in AI.

uh, For them, the fact that 40 percent of of growth now comes from investments in a in equipment in AI.

Is fantastic.

Is fantastic.

This is supply side, they don't want the the growth to come from consumer spending, they want the growth to come from investments.

This is supply side, they don't want the the growth to come from consumer spending, they want the growth to come from investments.

The Chinese GDP is growing rapidly, but the profit is not growing rapidly, because there's over supply.

The Chinese GDP is growing rapidly, but the profit is not growing rapidly, because there's over supply.

So if China had a little bit more balance, so there was more consumer spending, then the profits of the companies would go up. So, I know that when.

So if China had a little bit more balance, so there was more consumer spending, then the profits of the companies would go up. So, I know that when.

Besson and his team have been talking with China.

Besson and his team have been talking with China.

One of the messages that they have been bringing is that maybe we can help each other.

One of the messages that they have been bringing is that maybe we can help each other.

Maybe if we produce more, and you consume more.

Maybe if we produce more, and you consume more.

You will your economy will be more profitable, and our growth rate will be more sustainable.

You will your economy will be more profitable, and our growth rate will be more sustainable.

So it it's a it's a very interesting situation that actually.

So it it's a it's a very interesting situation that actually.

Has a s- a solution, which both parties are trying to get to that solution. Because if you look at the policies in China.

Has a s- a solution, which both parties are trying to get to that solution. Because if you look at the policies in China.

uh, Yes, it talks about uh continuing uh to prioritize innovation, which I think makes complete sense, but it also talks about more consumer spending.

uh, Yes, it talks about uh continuing uh to prioritize innovation, which I think makes complete sense, but it also talks about more consumer spending.

Which is a part of addressing that problem.

Which is a part of addressing that problem.

The our leaders, US and Chi- China leaders are meeting today in Korea, in South Korea.

The our leaders, US and Chi- China leaders are meeting today in Korea, in South Korea.

So everyone's like trying to follow, but the stock market today was not looking great today, after their uh conversation.

So everyone's like trying to follow, but the stock market today was not looking great today, after their uh conversation.

Aaron was just telling me that uh before our show.

Aaron was just telling me that uh before our show.

uh, Yeah, uh, that that's uh that's because I I think it had discounted that deal, and there were no positive surprises.

uh, Yeah, uh, that that's uh that's because I I think it had discounted that deal, and there were no positive surprises.

In the deal, yes, for sure.

In the deal, yes, for sure.

Yeah, there's a lot of like, there's a lot of news, and there's a lot of signal shows that US and China, they are decoupling more, but not trying to work together.

Yeah, there's a lot of like, there's a lot of news, and there's a lot of signal shows that US and China, they are decoupling more, but not trying to work together.

There's wind tax situation from Netherlands, and there's a bunch of like new companies being on US entity list.

There's wind tax situation from Netherlands, and there's a bunch of like new companies being on US entity list.

So, oh, like, but you are saying that actually, the two countries want to work together.

So, oh, like, but you are saying that actually, the two countries want to work together.

Yeah, so what I think they want to do is both of the countries want to have strategic independence from the other.

Yeah, so what I think they want to do is both of the countries want to have strategic independence from the other.

um, uh, For instance.

um, uh, For instance.

The US wants to be independent on China, concerning where earth mi- missiles.

The US wants to be independent on China, concerning where earth mi- missiles.

China wants to be, to develop uh super high end chips.

China wants to be, to develop uh super high end chips.

So um so, it doesn't Need to import any any chips at all, uh, etc, etc.

So um so, it doesn't Need to import any any chips at all, uh, etc, etc.

um, But that's not the same as not wanting to cooperate.

um, But that's not the same as not wanting to cooperate.

I think this uh always in trade uh incredibly great possibilities of mutual benefits, so win-win.

I think this uh always in trade uh incredibly great possibilities of mutual benefits, so win-win.

um,But both both countries are working full speed on just having strategic security.

um,But both both countries are working full speed on just having strategic security.

And I think what happened during COVID uh was an eye opener for many.

And I think what happened during COVID uh was an eye opener for many.

I had uh ha ha at the beginning of COVID, I had ordered a car from Germany.

I had uh ha ha at the beginning of COVID, I had ordered a car from Germany.

uh, And it took them 9 months to deliver the deliver the car.

uh, And it took them 9 months to deliver the deliver the car.

And they they actually, they ap- apologize very much, and gave me a super fancy number plate for the car.

And they they actually, they ap- apologize very much, and gave me a super fancy number plate for the car.

But they said it was because we were waiting for some chips from Asia.

But they said it was because we were waiting for some chips from Asia.

that we couldn't get because of COVID lockdown.

that we couldn't get because of COVID lockdown.

I think uh something that American uh administration mentioned, especially Benson mentioned very often is that we discovered during COVID that we are more dependent on other countries that we were aware of.

I think uh something that American uh administration mentioned, especially Benson mentioned very often is that we discovered during COVID that we are more dependent on other countries that we were aware of.

And we have to be more careful with that.

And we have to be more careful with that.

So, I I don't think, for instance, the fact that now the rare earth, the so- the free trade of rare earth has been Prolonged one year doesn't mean that everybody relaxes.

So, I I don't think, for instance, the fact that now the rare earth, the so- the free trade of rare earth has been Prolonged one year doesn't mean that everybody relaxes.

um, The US and EU and Australia and so on, w- i- I will be all in all in on Building our railways capacity, and and China is all in on building technologies that makes it completely independent on the West. And once you are independent, you can still trade.

um, The US and EU and Australia and so on, w- i- I will be all in all in on Building our railways capacity, and and China is all in on building technologies that makes it completely independent on the West. And once you are independent, you can still trade.

uh, But you can trade, you know, you can have your shoulders down, you're relaxed, you're just trading for mutual benefit.

uh, But you can trade, you know, you can have your shoulders down, you're relaxed, you're just trading for mutual benefit.

It's an arm race for now, but trading, collaboration in the future, it just like Globalization 2.0.

It's an arm race for now, but trading, collaboration in the future, it just like Globalization 2.0.

Yeah, the, yeah, I think it's just with a reset, where you're de- de-risking your trade, both on both sides, yeah.

Yeah, the, yeah, I think it's just with a reset, where you're de- de-risking your trade, both on both sides, yeah.

So, maybe I want to go straight to the question about AI.

So, maybe I want to go straight to the question about AI.

Yeah, since you just mentioned about the whole thing about decoupling, and in your view, there are still some place for us to corporate.

Yeah, since you just mentioned about the whole thing about decoupling, and in your view, there are still some place for us to corporate.

With each other, but do you think there is a very clear trend of decoupling within the areas of AI?

With each other, but do you think there is a very clear trend of decoupling within the areas of AI?

Just specific to AI, between US and China.

Just specific to AI, between US and China.

I I don't see that as a as a very strong trend.

I I don't see that as a as a very strong trend.

uh, For instance, uh, China is very strong on uhOpen source and open weight AI models, and one of the biggest users of of the Chinese models are actually American companies, also the major American companies.

uh, For instance, uh, China is very strong on uhOpen source and open weight AI models, and one of the biggest users of of the Chinese models are actually American companies, also the major American companies.

So I I don't see it as a as a a set of technologies where you have two completely different standard, like the VHS and Betamax, for instance.

So I I don't see it as a as a a set of technologies where you have two completely different standard, like the VHS and Betamax, for instance.

But there is obviously an interest in tying as many clients as you can on your check stack, which uh you know you have, I said energy first, but then you have cost the chips, and then you have the different layers of software.

But there is obviously an interest in tying as many clients as you can on your check stack, which uh you know you have, I said energy first, but then you have cost the chips, and then you have the different layers of software.

And America is uh doing a lot of work.

And America is uh doing a lot of work.

And they have a term called safe compute zones.

And they have a term called safe compute zones.

So, a safe compute zone is a is a is a country.

So, a safe compute zone is a is a is a country.

uh, that they trust, where they are willing to deploy their chips and their software.

uh, that they trust, where they are willing to deploy their chips and their software.

And for instance, uh, in in the spring of this year, we had Trump going to the Gulf States, to Saudi, Qatar, and Emirates, and signing deals, so they set up data centers, data factories, uh, where they will have a a lot of critical American technology.

And for instance, uh, in in the spring of this year, we had Trump going to the Gulf States, to Saudi, Qatar, and Emirates, and signing deals, so they set up data centers, data factories, uh, where they will have a a lot of critical American technology.

There were some weapon steels also, and security corporation tossed in.

There were some weapon steels also, and security corporation tossed in.

um, So, um, both sides, China and the US will want to use different strategies.

um, So, um, both sides, China and the US will want to use different strategies.

To get people to get close to, or build on the on the, uh, different tax codes.

To get people to get close to, or build on the on the, uh, different tax codes.

I just don't see it as something that completely bifur- for kates into two things that are not in- in- compatible at all.

I just don't see it as something that completely bifur- for kates into two things that are not in- in- compatible at all.

And as I said, you know, lots of American companies are using uh Chinese technology today, because it's, they haven't found anything ha ha risky about it.

And as I said, you know, lots of American companies are using uh Chinese technology today, because it's, they haven't found anything ha ha risky about it.

And it's free, and it is sufficient.

And it's free, and it is sufficient.

What about Europe?

What about Europe?

I think isn't there a national security reason?

I think isn't there a national security reason?

Like, I know some uh European country, they only wanna like Use Mistral for their uh application to build on top of.

Like, I know some uh European country, they only wanna like Use Mistral for their uh application to build on top of.

They probably not gonna consider any US or Chinese uh model to to to work with.

They probably not gonna consider any US or Chinese uh model to to to work with.

Yeah, so I I think uh it's it's only a a fragment of the Europeans that are suspicious of American technology.

Yeah, so I I think uh it's it's only a a fragment of the Europeans that are suspicious of American technology.

I think that like 70 80 of Europeans do trust American technologies.

I think that like 70 80 of Europeans do trust American technologies.

um, So, but it's interesting to look at the co- comparison where are US and China and Europe in terms of rolling out AI.

um, So, but it's interesting to look at the co- comparison where are US and China and Europe in terms of rolling out AI.

So, if you take uh patents, uh, China is a clear leader in the world, about 70 percent of all patents issued on AI, uh, issued in China. I think it's around 15 percent in US.

So, if you take uh patents, uh, China is a clear leader in the world, about 70 percent of all patents issued on AI, uh, issued in China. I think it's around 15 percent in US.

5 percent in Europe, something like that, 5 percent for the rest of the world.

5 percent in Europe, something like that, 5 percent for the rest of the world.

But if you then look at um compute, actually, you know how much that chips burning through, you know.

But if you then look at um compute, actually, you know how much that chips burning through, you know.

Running AI, uh, the US is a big leader.

Running AI, uh, the US is a big leader.

75% of all compute and AI is is this massive factories in the US.

75% of all compute and AI is is this massive factories in the US.

China's 15 Europe's is like 5 something like that.

China's 15 Europe's is like 5 something like that.

And if you look at the leading large language models, um.

And if you look at the leading large language models, um.

You have, if you take the the the ones that are, you know, really regarded as leading models.

You have, if you take the the the ones that are, you know, really regarded as leading models.

40 of them are in the US, 15 in China, and 3 in France.

40 of them are in the US, 15 in China, and 3 in France.

on Europe, so, Europe does not shine in these com- uh uh com- comparisons at all.

on Europe, so, Europe does not shine in these com- uh uh com- comparisons at all.

But I think it's very important to When you think about China, to think about China has this AI Plus strategy, which is about introducing a a layer of intelligent throughout society in general.

But I think it's very important to When you think about China, to think about China has this AI Plus strategy, which is about introducing a a layer of intelligent throughout society in general.

And I think that's very very important, and very uh rational.

And I think that's very very important, and very uh rational.

So, a lot of this is not large language models, but small language models, and agnostic AI.

So, a lot of this is not large language models, but small language models, and agnostic AI.

And one advantage is that China has, which is, well, the two strategic advantages actually that China have for this. First of all, China has.

And one advantage is that China has, which is, well, the two strategic advantages actually that China have for this. First of all, China has.

Very efficient electricity, a very cheap electricity, and lots of it, like lots of it, very uh efficient grid.

Very efficient electricity, a very cheap electricity, and lots of it, like lots of it, very uh efficient grid.

China last year invested more in smart grid that the rest of the world combined.

China last year invested more in smart grid that the rest of the world combined.

Second is people, so we talk about AI to you know automate and get rid of people, but the fact is that if When you want to roll out AI uh in millions of companies and business processes, you need people to analyze it.

Second is people, so we talk about AI to you know automate and get rid of people, but the fact is that if When you want to roll out AI uh in millions of companies and business processes, you need people to analyze it.

I know this because my own company Supertrans does that.

I know this because my own company Supertrans does that.

I can tell you there's a lot of human thinking going into how to make a genic AI work for a specific business situation, like lots and lots.

I can tell you there's a lot of human thinking going into how to make a genic AI work for a specific business situation, like lots and lots.

And China educates about half of all STEM, science, technology, engineering and math.

And China educates about half of all STEM, science, technology, engineering and math.

candidates in the world.

candidates in the world.

China is very very strong on on AI, uh, education.

China is very very strong on on AI, uh, education.

uh, Ch- China, I think, has 9.6 million engineers, um, the US has.

uh, Ch- China, I think, has 9.6 million engineers, um, the US has.

Less than 2 million.

Less than 2 million.

um, So China just has the the the manpower of the relevant education.

um, So China just has the the the manpower of the relevant education.

uh, So, Europe's chance is to go the Chinese way, I think.

uh, So, Europe's chance is to go the Chinese way, I think.

Apart from Mistral, Europe doesn't really have anything on these, you know, phenomenal high end large language models. But you can still roll out um AGI.

Apart from Mistral, Europe doesn't really have anything on these, you know, phenomenal high end large language models. But you can still roll out um AGI.

And for instance, Hugging Face, which is um the main depository in the world on open source model.

And for instance, Hugging Face, which is um the main depository in the world on open source model.

Yeah, yeah, is French, um, comes out of France.

Yeah, yeah, is French, um, comes out of France.

Yeah, I I I met him once in uh San Francisco, one of the event, yeah, and also Lovable, they've been doing really well.

Yeah, I I I met him once in uh San Francisco, one of the event, yeah, and also Lovable, they've been doing really well.

Perhaps that doesn't really matter, but it it just means that the Europe is behind on on some major things. Also, the electricity tends to be expensive in Europe.

Perhaps that doesn't really matter, but it it just means that the Europe is behind on on some major things. Also, the electricity tends to be expensive in Europe.

um, But Europe can do the same as as China, I I think that's the way it will go.

um, But Europe can do the same as as China, I I think that's the way it will go.

You are an investor, as we do, right? Now you have to allocate your capital.

You are an investor, as we do, right? Now you have to allocate your capital.

Between US and China, in AI areas, are there any specific areas that it would allocate a capital in each country?

Between US and China, in AI areas, are there any specific areas that it would allocate a capital in each country?

I I I find it difficult to answer that for China. I would say, because I I I'm not.

I I I find it difficult to answer that for China. I would say, because I I I'm not.

Deep enough into the alpha, the stock picking in in China.

Deep enough into the alpha, the stock picking in in China.

uh, So what I can tell you about is how I'm invested in general, because we have a fund. So, yeah.

uh, So what I can tell you about is how I'm invested in general, because we have a fund. So, yeah.

uh, So, we have, we we are quite investors in China, and.

uh, So, we have, we we are quite investors in China, and.

um, It's about 25% right now.

um, It's about 25% right now.

And the reasons are first of all, that the Chinese investors have no alternative to stock markets, in my opinion. Yeah, so if you if you invest in.

And the reasons are first of all, that the Chinese investors have no alternative to stock markets, in my opinion. Yeah, so if you if you invest in.

Bank account, maybe you'll get 1.1 1.2 interest rate.

Bank account, maybe you'll get 1.1 1.2 interest rate.

If you invest in government bonds, you'll get 1.7 1.8. Then if you invest in the stock markets.

If you invest in government bonds, you'll get 1.7 1.8. Then if you invest in the stock markets.

You have earnings yields.

You have earnings yields.

So, if if you look at forward earnings yields, so, based on ex- expected earning next year, in some of the indices you get like 10 percent.

So, if if you look at forward earnings yields, so, based on ex- expected earning next year, in some of the indices you get like 10 percent.

um, If if you look at the trailing earnings yields, maybe you're down to 6 percent or so.

um, If if you look at the trailing earnings yields, maybe you're down to 6 percent or so.

First of all, if you look at historically, it's been extremely unusual in any market to have higher dividend yield than bond yield.

First of all, if you look at historically, it's been extremely unusual in any market to have higher dividend yield than bond yield.

uh, So, on average, if you just invest when you see that.

uh, So, on average, if you just invest when you see that.

You'll you'll make a lot of money.

You'll you'll make a lot of money.

Second, the difference between the earning shield and the bond yield is incredibly high in in China.

Second, the difference between the earning shield and the bond yield is incredibly high in in China.

Then the next thing is that You have the savings accounts in China recently uh exceeded two times the value of the stock market, the market cap of the stock market.

Then the next thing is that You have the savings accounts in China recently uh exceeded two times the value of the stock market, the market cap of the stock market.

So last time we saw this was in 2014.

So last time we saw this was in 2014.

So we have this enormous savings, um, and quite low stock market.

So we have this enormous savings, um, and quite low stock market.

What happened the next twelve months was the savings went down and stock market went up.

What happened the next twelve months was the savings went down and stock market went up.

Stock market goes up, yeah, the money just goes into the stock market.

Stock market goes up, yeah, the money just goes into the stock market.

Now we are in the same situation in my opinion, so, there's no guarantee that this will happen, but it's definitely a possibility that this money goes in and say, hey, why do we want, why do we pick up 1.1 1.2% interest rate?

Now we are in the same situation in my opinion, so, there's no guarantee that this will happen, but it's definitely a possibility that this money goes in and say, hey, why do we want, why do we pick up 1.1 1.2% interest rate?

When there's 10 percent earning shield waiting for us up here, let's move the money into the stock market.

When there's 10 percent earning shield waiting for us up here, let's move the money into the stock market.

So, um, so this, these are tactical reasons.

So, um, so this, these are tactical reasons.

But I also think we already to- uh spoke about the the level of innovation in China, which is so impressive.

But I also think we already to- uh spoke about the the level of innovation in China, which is so impressive.

If we look at the global innovation index, uh, which range- uh, the ranks different countries in the world for how innovative they are.

If we look at the global innovation index, uh, which range- uh, the ranks different countries in the world for how innovative they are.

Per capita, China has just surpassed Germany.

Per capita, China has just surpassed Germany.

I think China is number 10 in the world.

I think China is number 10 in the world.

And so, there's a very high statistical correlation uh between how how high you are on On global innovation index, and what is the GDP per capita?

And so, there's a very high statistical correlation uh between how how high you are on On global innovation index, and what is the GDP per capita?

So, I'm I'm sitting here in Switzerland.

So, I'm I'm sitting here in Switzerland.

Switzerland is number one on global innovation index, it's also the richest country in the world.

Switzerland is number one on global innovation index, it's also the richest country in the world.

At least, that doesn't have gas, haha, reserves like Qatar.

At least, that doesn't have gas, haha, reserves like Qatar.

um, So, very very high correlation.

um, So, very very high correlation.

Then if we if we look at all the countries how they correlate.

Then if we if we look at all the countries how they correlate.

The biggest outlier that doesn't, is not placed on this correlation is China, biggest outlier in the world.

The biggest outlier that doesn't, is not placed on this correlation is China, biggest outlier in the world.

So China, if if we put China where it should be, in terms of GDP per capita.

So China, if if we put China where it should be, in terms of GDP per capita.

It should be like Germany or higher.

It should be like Germany or higher.

uh, It should be 3 or 4 times as a as higher as as it is.

uh, It should be 3 or 4 times as a as higher as as it is.

I know there's something, you know, difference between nominal GDP and real GDP.

I know there's something, you know, difference between nominal GDP and real GDP.

uh, But the innovation in China has come so quickly that it has not spilled into GDP.

uh, But the innovation in China has come so quickly that it has not spilled into GDP.

uh, Fully, so there's a lot a lot of GDP growth catch up because of the innovation in China.

uh, Fully, so there's a lot a lot of GDP growth catch up because of the innovation in China.

So, I like China very much from that, but that, but then another thing that I like very much is commodities.

So, I like China very much from that, but that, but then another thing that I like very much is commodities.

So, previous we spoke about, you know, where China and and US are in the business cycle.

So, previous we spoke about, you know, where China and and US are in the business cycle.

I think we are in the beginning of a commodity cycle, uh, because since 2014, there has been way too little investments in new mining capacity in the world.

I think we are in the beginning of a commodity cycle, uh, because since 2014, there has been way too little investments in new mining capacity in the world.

And that means that um that we are now not prepared for the demand for especially industrial metals that will come.

And that means that um that we are now not prepared for the demand for especially industrial metals that will come.

And we're beginning to see the first signs of a commodity cycle.

And we're beginning to see the first signs of a commodity cycle.

uh, We've seen silver explode up, this is an industrial metal.

uh, We've seen silver explode up, this is an industrial metal.

We've seen platinum, we've seen uranium.

We've seen platinum, we've seen uranium.

We've seen rare earth.

We've seen rare earth.

We see copper kind of silently, people are not really talking much about it.

We see copper kind of silently, people are not really talking much about it.

Copper is just silently climbing up, climbing up, climbing up.

Copper is just silently climbing up, climbing up, climbing up.

And I would feel much more safe if I invested in copper than in gold.

And I would feel much more safe if I invested in copper than in gold.

In this market, OK, because, ha ha ha.

In this market, OK, because, ha ha ha.

OK, so I suppose in our discussion today, in term of the commodity you mentioned, does that include gold, silver?

OK, so I suppose in our discussion today, in term of the commodity you mentioned, does that include gold, silver?

It does not, it i i do i do, gold is a different thing, but it includes it it's most com commodities are heading towards.

It does not, it i i do i do, gold is a different thing, but it includes it it's most com commodities are heading towards.

I think you mentioned about metals, right?

I think you mentioned about metals, right?

Yeah, yes, it's only metals, it's only metals.

Yeah, yes, it's only metals, it's only metals.

I'm not only metal, it's not, there's no oil.

I'm not only metal, it's not, there's no oil.

There's no crude oil, there's no gold, it's just metal.

There's no crude oil, there's no gold, it's just metal.

Yeah, it's it's industrial metals, which by the uranium is a metal, so it includes uranium.

Yeah, it's it's industrial metals, which by the uranium is a metal, so it includes uranium.

So, uh, last time we had such cycle was, it began around 2,000 and lasted until 2,006, 2 2,008.

So, uh, last time we had such cycle was, it began around 2,000 and lasted until 2,006, 2 2,008.

And there we saw mining companies on average go up 4~500 percent.

And there we saw mining companies on average go up 4~500 percent.

uh, You saw the me- metals prices go up a lot also.

uh, You saw the me- metals prices go up a lot also.

And I I was completely invested in that, and I remember what made me invest.

And I I was completely invested in that, and I remember what made me invest.

The first thing that made me invest was Jim O'Neill for Goldman Sachs writing about that situation.

The first thing that made me invest was Jim O'Neill for Goldman Sachs writing about that situation.

He wrote about bricks that would uh need a lot of metal, and then he wrote about The lack of investment in mi- mining, and he said there's going to be a shortage of metals, because it takes a long long time to build up capacity in mining.

He wrote about bricks that would uh need a lot of metal, and then he wrote about The lack of investment in mi- mining, and he said there's going to be a shortage of metals, because it takes a long long time to build up capacity in mining.

Takes on average 15 years to start a new copper mine, for instance.

Takes on average 15 years to start a new copper mine, for instance.

So, over the last 10 years, since s- you know, I said in 2014, the mining investments became insufficient.

So, over the last 10 years, since s- you know, I said in 2014, the mining investments became insufficient.

Over the 10 years following that, the global m- hmm, metals production has gone down.

Over the 10 years following that, the global m- hmm, metals production has gone down.

It's completely unsustainable in my opinion, and I think there will be a big catch up process.

It's completely unsustainable in my opinion, and I think there will be a big catch up process.

But when I did this in 2000 uh and 2001, invested in metals and mining.

But when I did this in 2000 uh and 2001, invested in metals and mining.

I noticed that whereas Jim奥尼尔 he was he was looking at the whole situation and said there's a big problem which is a big investment uh possibility

I noticed that whereas Jim奥尼尔 he was he was looking at the whole situation and said there's a big problem which is a big investment uh possibility

Then I, uh, when I looked at the predictions from different specialized mining analysts, many of them didn't see what he saw.

Then I, uh, when I looked at the predictions from different specialized mining analysts, many of them didn't see what he saw.

They were looking, they're just, they didn't see the whole picture, they were looking at What's going on in aluminum, what's going on in copper and so on.

They were looking, they're just, they didn't see the whole picture, they were looking at What's going on in aluminum, what's going on in copper and so on.

And I I think we have the same here that many of the specialist analyst, they are not as bullished as uh as bullished as I am, for instance.

And I I think we have the same here that many of the specialist analyst, they are not as bullished as uh as bullished as I am, for instance.

um, So, the people who look at the global macro, the whole scenario, they say, OK, the world is going to become more wealthy faster because of AI and robots.

um, So, the people who look at the global macro, the whole scenario, they say, OK, the world is going to become more wealthy faster because of AI and robots.

um, And electrification requires a lot of e- e- electricity, but it it it uh excuse me, electrification requires a lot of metals.

um, And electrification requires a lot of e- e- electricity, but it it it uh excuse me, electrification requires a lot of metals.

uh, Electric cars may be use 7 times as many, as much metals as traditional cars and so on.

uh, Electric cars may be use 7 times as many, as much metals as traditional cars and so on.

There's not going to be enough.

There's not going to be enough.

So obviously the the mining companies, they they can ramp it up, catch up with the demand, but that takes 10 15 years.

So obviously the the mining companies, they they can ramp it up, catch up with the demand, but that takes 10 15 years.

So yeah, so that's a v- very big thing, I'm bullish on, then I like uh bio uh biotech companies.

So yeah, so that's a v- very big thing, I'm bullish on, then I like uh bio uh biotech companies.

So, typically, biotech companies, they, if they make something really hot, they get a quiet by big farmer, for instance.

So, typically, biotech companies, they, if they make something really hot, they get a quiet by big farmer, for instance.

I think that's a very interesting sector, I like Vietnam.

I think that's a very interesting sector, I like Vietnam.

um, Vietnam is a frontier market, what will probably reclassified, be reclassified as an emerging markets, and that could give maybe 20 on, you know.

um, Vietnam is a frontier market, what will probably reclassified, be reclassified as an emerging markets, and that could give maybe 20 on, you know.

or 50 years, I don't know, a a boost in their share price, because a lot of funds have to invest in them, and they are also very innovative, not like China, but Their in- innovation level is too high for the GDP, so to speak. That GDP has to catch up. uh, I like.

or 50 years, I don't know, a a boost in their share price, because a lot of funds have to invest in them, and they are also very innovative, not like China, but Their in- innovation level is too high for the GDP, so to speak. That GDP has to catch up. uh, I like.

some other SEAN countries.

some other SEAN countries.

um, We are in great banks, but that's, I've been there for 3 years, so.

um, We are in great banks, but that's, I've been there for 3 years, so.

It's a little bit late stage.

It's a little bit late stage.

Thanks for sharing your personal portfolio.

Thanks for sharing your personal portfolio.

Yeah, I, that now, I uh it make more sense to me from your book Hyper Intelligence.

Yeah, I, that now, I uh it make more sense to me from your book Hyper Intelligence.

You from like a really big angle how the universe started.

You from like a really big angle how the universe started.

It's like why you study all this?

It's like why you study all this?

It's like, you're like uh predict this gonna happen like one technology, and then you deduct it from there, and then for example, like you know the electric car gonna happen to everyone, and then, oh, mineral probably we need to buy in right now.

It's like, you're like uh predict this gonna happen like one technology, and then you deduct it from there, and then for example, like you know the electric car gonna happen to everyone, and then, oh, mineral probably we need to buy in right now.

So, it does look like At least 15 20 years of like in a time frame.

So, it does look like At least 15 20 years of like in a time frame.

Yeah, this this one one thing follows another, but you remember when we talked about the book business sagas, why I wanted to understand it.

Yeah, this this one one thing follows another, but you remember when we talked about the book business sagas, why I wanted to understand it.

From the beginning, um, going back through the very, to the very first economist.

From the beginning, um, going back through the very, to the very first economist.

um, So, it's the same we did with AI, so we're three authors, but we wanted to understand the roots of AI.

um, So, it's the same we did with AI, so we're three authors, but we wanted to understand the roots of AI.

In the end, we went 13.8 billion years back, and say what?

In the end, we went 13.8 billion years back, and say what?

How does how does complexity achieve all?

How does how does complexity achieve all?

So, that was uh was uh to some degree for fun, but I think when you then study how.

So, that was uh was uh to some degree for fun, but I think when you then study how.

A complexity and intelligence evolved in living beings, animals and especially, and um the human brains and so on.

A complexity and intelligence evolved in living beings, animals and especially, and um the human brains and so on.

You can see it's the same, it's the same that we're do, now doing it with technology. We're just doing it millions of times faster.

You can see it's the same, it's the same that we're do, now doing it with technology. We're just doing it millions of times faster.

And hmm.

And hmm.

But we we can learn something from what we have learned from studying uh biology and civilizations.

But we we can learn something from what we have learned from studying uh biology and civilizations.

For instance, the fact that civilizations uh a civilization is much more clever than any.

For instance, the fact that civilizations uh a civilization is much more clever than any.

Note in the civilization, uh, humanity is much more clever than a human.

Note in the civilization, uh, humanity is much more clever than a human.

And the same of of course will happen with AI, is that the sum of all AI will be massively more capable than the any single AI model, and right now, people, when they try to find out what is the pinnacle of achievement. They are comparing Grok to GPT, to.

And the same of of course will happen with AI, is that the sum of all AI will be massively more capable than the any single AI model, and right now, people, when they try to find out what is the pinnacle of achievement. They are comparing Grok to GPT, to.

Deepseek, to Gemini, and so on.

Deepseek, to Gemini, and so on.

um, But eventually, this is like saying what is the peak of human performance, and then we compare Einstein to Newton to I don't know who, um, but instead, we should say we should say the the pinnacle of human performance is what we do collectively.

um, But eventually, this is like saying what is the peak of human performance, and then we compare Einstein to Newton to I don't know who, um, but instead, we should say we should say the the pinnacle of human performance is what we do collectively.

And that's completely different, so we have to look at it as civilizations.

And that's completely different, so we have to look at it as civilizations.

And I think eventually we have to think about AI as a kind of artificial civilization, and we go into that in the book.

And I think eventually we have to think about AI as a kind of artificial civilization, and we go into that in the book.

and try to make some thought of experiments about sending AI to Mars, and the it can it can start its own civilization there, and so on.

and try to make some thought of experiments about sending AI to Mars, and the it can it can start its own civilization there, and so on.

So, what portion of your investment portfolio now is AI relate related?

So, what portion of your investment portfolio now is AI relate related?

We have some AI exposure, but um we don't invest uh much directly into AI companies because we think they are they are not cheap.

We have some AI exposure, but um we don't invest uh much directly into AI companies because we think they are they are not cheap.

um, OK, but like, NVIDIA.

um, OK, but like, NVIDIA.

Yeah, but I think the expos- the exposure to uh to China and to commodities is an interact exposure to AI, because We we think that these, that they, the world economy will, it has a structural growth rate.

Yeah, but I think the expos- the exposure to uh to China and to commodities is an interact exposure to AI, because We we think that these, that they, the world economy will, it has a structural growth rate.

like a speed limi- limit, is what the economy is called it.

like a speed limi- limit, is what the economy is called it.

And we think that this growth rate will uh get steeper because of this.

And we think that this growth rate will uh get steeper because of this.

And I have some graph that shows this the growth rate of the speed limit of the American economy since 1770.

And I have some graph that shows this the growth rate of the speed limit of the American economy since 1770.

And it's been the same all the time, and I think that because AI and robots are so radical that the speed limit will go up, so, it will be possible to have growth of 5, 6, 7 percent.

And it's been the same all the time, and I think that because AI and robots are so radical that the speed limit will go up, so, it will be possible to have growth of 5, 6, 7 percent.

Without getting inflation for a period.

Without getting inflation for a period.

I'm, I think I think 6 and 7 percent sounds like high, but I, but um somewhere between 5 and and 7 percents.

I'm, I think I think 6 and 7 percent sounds like high, but I, but um somewhere between 5 and and 7 percents.

Should be obtainable, if you run this, the right policies.

Should be obtainable, if you run this, the right policies.

That's a big big if, but um the world economy will will accelerate.

That's a big big if, but um the world economy will will accelerate.

And when people get more wealthy, they want more stuff, and more stuff includes more commodities, industrial metals, and so on.

And when people get more wealthy, they want more stuff, and more stuff includes more commodities, industrial metals, and so on.

And thus, in for instance, in America, there's a close to panic.

And thus, in for instance, in America, there's a close to panic.

About lack of electric power.

About lack of electric power.

Yeah, uh, ha ha ha.

Yeah, uh, ha ha ha.

Yeah, if if if you just look at the plans for built of uh data factories in the next 5 years.

Yeah, if if if you just look at the plans for built of uh data factories in the next 5 years.

uh, This this will require s- like a hundred nuclear reactors more.

uh, This this will require s- like a hundred nuclear reactors more.

I know it it I I live in California half of the time, the infrastructure, PGE is horrible.

I know it it I I live in California half of the time, the infrastructure, PGE is horrible.

Ha ha ha.

Ha ha ha.

Once there's like uh wind or like someuh, Fire breakout, it just like I have weeks without power.

Once there's like uh wind or like someuh, Fire breakout, it just like I have weeks without power.

And then, yeah, yeah, and then also, uh, Trump cut off a lot of like a uh new energy.

And then, yeah, yeah, and then also, uh, Trump cut off a lot of like a uh new energy.

uh, Plans, I didn't have like new energy stuff like in, having invested like in China.

uh, Plans, I didn't have like new energy stuff like in, having invested like in China.

Yeah, so France is tripling of the nuclear power uh wi- within the next 15 years.

Yeah, so France is tripling of the nuclear power uh wi- within the next 15 years.

uh which I think is I don't know if they will really make that but they're they're trying to achieve that and I think so they're all in on nuclear power of all sorts and China is also China is building 30 nuclear power reactors Right now discussing 150。

uh which I think is I don't know if they will really make that but they're they're trying to achieve that and I think so they're all in on nuclear power of all sorts and China is also China is building 30 nuclear power reactors Right now discussing 150。

uh experimenting with uh thorium reactors in the戈壁沙漠 desert um Has both US and China and other places have Nuclear fusion reactors that would be nice if that works uh You have the small um small reactors small scalable

uh experimenting with uh thorium reactors in the戈壁沙漠 desert um Has both US and China and other places have Nuclear fusion reactors that would be nice if that works uh You have the small um small reactors small scalable

Potentially mass produce reactors and so on.

Potentially mass produce reactors and so on.

So, even the EU, which has been very anti-technology, has hmm uh has now um accepted nuclear power as a clean tech.

So, even the EU, which has been very anti-technology, has hmm uh has now um accepted nuclear power as a clean tech.

uh, uh, so, instead of uh shutting down nuclear, they actually might begin to building it up.

uh, uh, so, instead of uh shutting down nuclear, they actually might begin to building it up.

So, I'm s- I'm so happy when I live in Switzerland, we have nuclear power and water, so we we are fine, but uh.

So, I'm s- I'm so happy when I live in Switzerland, we have nuclear power and water, so we we are fine, but uh.

uh, Lars is very positive about the upcoming years.

uh, Lars is very positive about the upcoming years.

That's what I get from you.

That's what I get from you.

That's actually one of the the most uhuh, positive conversation we have.

That's actually one of the the most uhuh, positive conversation we have.

Right, yeah.

Right, yeah.

Final question.

Final question.

What advice would you give to investors and entrepreneurs navigating today's uncertainty?

What advice would you give to investors and entrepreneurs navigating today's uncertainty?

Just one final advice, if you wanna give to them.

Just one final advice, if you wanna give to them.

I, be bullish, is um a two word of advice.

I, be bullish, is um a two word of advice.

um, Believe that the world economy will do amazingly well the next 10 or 20 years.

um, Believe that the world economy will do amazingly well the next 10 or 20 years.

uh, To answer Benus, I would say uh if you were living uh uh just after the invention of the steam engine.

uh, To answer Benus, I would say uh if you were living uh uh just after the invention of the steam engine.

Wouldn't you investing that?

Wouldn't you investing that?

Hahaha.

Hahaha.

Now you're living in the age of uh something that's much easier to deploy, which is a genic AI, uh, or or AI in general.

Now you're living in the age of uh something that's much easier to deploy, which is a genic AI, uh, or or AI in general.

um, If you are not doing that, then you have a reason, you need to have a good reason, because AI It's the biggest, as the entrepreneurial opportunity that you will ever see in your life.

um, If you are not doing that, then you have a reason, you need to have a good reason, because AI It's the biggest, as the entrepreneurial opportunity that you will ever see in your life.

and it's it's arguably the biggest in the history of mankind.

and it's it's arguably the biggest in the history of mankind.

OK, I just wanna go back a little bit to the beginning, when you mentioned that before the 2008 financial crisis, you suddenly, all of a sudden, you have a sort of instinct.

OK, I just wanna go back a little bit to the beginning, when you mentioned that before the 2008 financial crisis, you suddenly, all of a sudden, you have a sort of instinct.

That things might go bad, and then you short the market.

That things might go bad, and then you short the market.

Do you sort of have that kind of instinct right now?

Do you sort of have that kind of instinct right now?

Yeah, my instinct is that things will go very well.

Yeah, my instinct is that things will go very well.

OK, considering all the market, you know, the valuation and all the market hype right now, you still don't have that instinct right now.

OK, considering all the market, you know, the valuation and all the market hype right now, you still don't have that instinct right now.

I don't have any instinct that the that the things will go bad, I I have the instinct that will go better than most people think.

I don't have any instinct that the that the things will go bad, I I have the instinct that will go better than most people think.

OK, thank you.

OK, thank you.

Really appreciate that.

Really appreciate that.

Please let us know when you have that sort of instinct.

Please let us know when you have that sort of instinct.

I give you a call.

I give you a call.

My number.

My number.

Hahaha.

Hahaha.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

I really appreciate it.

I really appreciate it.

I thought exactly too.

I thought exactly too.

Hahaha.

Hahaha.

All right, thank you very much, Lars. Yeah, thank you. Thank you, Lars. Thank you.

All right, thank you very much, Lars. Yeah, thank you. Thank you, Lars. Thank you.

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