亚马逊与Netflix的胜利：传统媒体能否与之抗衡？

嘿，听众朋友们。

Hey, listeners.

今天是11月9日，星期日。

It's Sunday, November 9.

这里是《本周新动态》周日版。

This is what's new Sunday.

本周节目我们将为您带来《华尔街日报·本周展望》特辑。

And for this week's show, we've got an episode of WSJ's Take on the Week.

这是我们每周聚焦可能影响未来市场走势新闻的专题节目。

It's our weekly show focused on the news that'll move markets in the week to come.

我们为您精选了当下最重磅的商业新闻特辑——

We thought you'd like this episode on one of the biggest business stories right now.

派拉蒙与天空之舞竞购华纳兄弟探索公司的交易案。

Paramount Skydance's bid to buy Warner Brothers Discovery.

节目还将深入探讨其他媒体并购、流媒体与科技、体育转播权天价交易等热点话题。

It also digs into other media mergers, streaming and tech, mega deals for sports broadcast rights, and plenty more.

敬请收听。

So give it a listen.

如果喜欢我们的节目，欢迎在您当前收听平台订阅《华尔街日报·本周展望》。

And if you like what you hear, subscribe to WSJ's Take on the Week wherever you're listening to us.

欢迎回到《华尔街日报·本周展望》新一期节目。

Welcome back to another episode of WSJ's Take on the Week.

我是特鲁斯·德莫斯。

I'm Telus Demos.

我是米里亚姆·戈特弗里德。

And I'm Miriam Gottfried.

本周我们准备了重磅内容。

Well, we've got a big episode this week.

我们主要讨论的是，嗯，我们自己的行业——媒体。

Our main conversation is about, well, our own business, the media.

事情很多。

A lot going on.

事情很多。

A lot going on.

戏剧性十足。

A lot of drama.

但首先，我们有几个热点话题要讨论。

But first, we've got a few hot topics to cover.

本周新闻很多，接下来还会有更多。

A lot happening in the news this week and a lot coming up.

我们有唐纳德·特朗普对阵最高法院的案子。

We've got Donald Trump versus the Supreme Court.

我们有曼丹尼市长的事件。

We've got Mayor Mamdani.

还有一如既往——特别是你在场的时候，米里亚姆——私人信贷的话题。

And we've got, as always, especially when you're here, Miriam, private credit.

我最喜欢的话题之一。

One of my favorite topics.

这方面还有很多可谈的。

More to talk about there.

好的。

Alright.

最高法院。

Supreme Court.

当然，总统的律师出庭为总统使用某项关税权力辩护，就是IEEPA或IEPA（国际紧急经济权力法），我相信大家都

Well, of course, the president well, the president's lawyers were in court to defend the president's use of a certain tariff power, the IEEPA or IEPA, which I'm sure all

你们知道的。

of you know.

IEPA。

IEPA.

IEPA，当然你们都知道，是《国际紧急经济权力法》的缩写，这是他用来实施对等关税的手段之一。

IEPA, which all of you know, of course, stands for the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which is one of the ways that he used to create the reciprocal tariffs.

基本上是通过宣布我们处于紧急状态，这赋予了他根据该法律实施这些关税的权力，而这通常是国会的职责。

Basically by declaring that we were in a state of emergency and that was what gave him the power under this law to, you know, enact these tariffs, which would typically be the role of Congress.

所以现在这个案子一直打到了最高法院，而且听起来上周对总统不太有利。

And so now it's all the way to the Supreme Court, and it sounded like it didn't go great for the president this past week.

我们《华尔街日报》的最高法院记者描述说，法官们似乎对总统能否如此激进地使用这些权力表示怀疑。

The way that our Supreme Court reporters here at The Journal described it was that they they they seemed skeptical that the president is able to use the powers to to act as as aggressively as he did with terror.

是的。

Yeah.

甚至一些特朗普任命的法官似乎也对政府这一论点表示怀疑。

A number of even Trump appointed justices seemed skeptical of this argument, of the government's argument.

所以这意味着特朗普在这个案子里可能情况不妙。

So that means it maybe isn't looking good for Trump in this case.

问题是，这意味着什么？

The question is, what does that mean?

我们的记者表示，通常当政府被发现非法收取他人资金时，法院会命令其退还。

What our reporters have said is that typically when the government is found to have illegally taken money from somebody, the court orders to give it back.

当然，我们通常不太关注贸易法的细节，但在这个案例中，存在一个财政问题：美国政府是否真的会被命令退还其征收的数十亿美元关税。

Normally, of course, we don't pay too much attention to the intricacies of trade law, but in this case, there's the fiscal question of whether or not the US government would actually have to be ordered to give back the billions and billions of dollars that it collected in tariffs.

还有一个影响股市的问题：那些受关税影响的公司是否将不再受到影响

And then there's the question for the stock market of whether companies that had been impacted by tariffs will no longer be impacted

这可能是今年股市的主要叙事之一。

by one of the main narratives this year in the stock market.

今年股市中真正重大的新闻事件。

In the huge really, really the big story in the stock market this year.

但即便如此，即使特朗普总统最终败诉，他仍可通过其他授权手段实施关税。

But that said, even if President Trump does ultimately lose this case, there are other authorities that President Trump can use to impose tariffs.

例如，第122条款。

For example, there's Section 122.

我不深入细节，但该条款基本上允许在150天内征收最高15%的关税以解决贸易失衡问题。我们的记者加文·巴德曾撰文指出，这将为特朗普争取时间，根据第301条款为贸易伙伴制定针对性关税。

I won't get into the super details of it, but that basically will allow tariffs of up to 15% for one hundred and fifty days to address trade imbalances, which one of our reporters, Gavin Bade, wrote that that would give time for Trump to devise individualized tariffs for trading partners under a different provision, section three zero one.

所以本质上，关税不会消失。

So basically, tariffs wouldn't go away.

它们可能只是以其他形式卷土重来。

They might just come back in some other form.

但请告诉我们，这一切归根结底意味着美国企业面临更多不确定性。

But tell us, you know, what this all boils down to is more uncertainty for corporate America.

对于受这些关税影响的企业来说，现在关税可能取消也可能不取消，而且可能被另一套关税措施取代，企业完全无法预判。

I mean, if you're a company that's been subject to these tariffs, and now they may or may not be going away, and there may or may not be another set of tariffs that could be put in their place, you really don't know.

这对股价意味着什么？对企业的规划能力又意味着什么？

And what does that mean for your stock price, and what does that mean for your ability to plan?

我认为不确定性才是上市公司真正的敌人

I I think uncertainty is the enemy here if you are a publicly traded

但真是这样吗？毕竟当前股市正处于或接近历史高点，企业长期与这种不确定性共存。

Is it, though, because we're here we are at or near all time highs for the stock market, and the companies have been living with this uncertainty for some time.

市场似乎已经消化了这种不确定性，这种不确定性并未阻碍人们

It seems that the market maybe has has moved on, that this uncertainty isn't I holding people

我认为不确定性确实在制约人们，但大家不知道该如何反应——对这些特定关税的取消该持积极还是消极态度。

think the uncertainty is holding people back, but people don't know whether to react positively or negatively to tear to the these particular tariffs being removed.

比如说，目前形势似乎倾向于特朗普输掉这场诉讼。

Like, let's say, you know, things are leaning toward, you know, Trump losing this case, this argument.

这是什么意思？

What does that mean?

我们仍然不太确定，因为正如你所说，可能还会有另一套关税政策。

We still don't really know because, as you said, there could be another set of tariffs.

那我该卖掉股票吗？

So should I sell my stocks?

我该买入股票吗？

Should I buy stocks?

我真的不知道该怎么办。

Like, I don't really know.

当然，现在还有其他层面的不确定性正在显现，比如其他地方的政治动态，我们经历了几场选举。

And, of course, there's all other layers of uncertainty that are coming into focus right now, which is what happened in politics elsewhere, which was we had some elections.

我们当然有纽约市长的竞选。

We had, of course, the New York City mayoral race.

佐兰·马姆达尼获胜了。

Zoran Mamdani won.

还有另外几场备受关注的选举。

We had a couple of other closely watched races too.

新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州的州长竞选。

We've got the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia.

民主党赢得了这些选举。

Democrats took those races.

加州通过了50号提案，这意味着民主党将能重新划分部分国会选区，很可能在下一轮选举中获得更多国会席位。

And we had Proposition 50 in California passed, which means the Democrats are able to redraw some of the congressional maps there and likely pick up some congressional seats in the next time around.

如果民主党确实在中期选举中表现强劲甚至获胜，这对市场意味着什么？

So what does it mean for the market if indeed Democrats are kind of succeeding, maybe going to be strong in these midterms?

他们向美国民众传达了什么信息？

And what is the message that they have for Americans?

目前对他们有帮助的是什么？

What's helping them right now?

我认为所有获胜候选人的共同主题是可负担性。

I think the unifying message across all of the candidates who won was affordability.

正如我们的同事所写，经济问题再次成为核心焦点，这并不意外。

Once again, you know, as our colleagues have written, the economy was front and center as it always is.

通胀问题——我们在播客中多次讨论的重要议题——我认为也是这些候选人的主要关注点。

And, you know, inflation, which has been a big thing that we've talked about on this podcast, was, you know, a was a big focus, I think, for these candidates.

要知道，日常生活成本已经难以承受。

You know, daily life is unaffordable.

这正是唐尼妈妈反复强调的观点。

That was something that mom Donnie drilled home.

他的竞选纲领完全围绕城市可负担性展开，这个论点最终赢得了胜利。

His, you know, campaign platform was all tied to affordability in the city, and that was a winning argument.

当然，这也是特朗普当选总统的部分策略——宣称拜登应对所有通胀负责，而自己能解决这个问题。

And, of course, that was part of how president Trump got elected by saying, Biden was responsible for all the inflation, and I can get us out of that.

成也萧何。

Live by the sword.

败也萧何，对共和党而言。

Die by the sword for Republicans.

对吧？

Right?

他们必须警惕这些通胀和生活成本问题

They've gotta be wary of of these inflation and cost of

压力。

living.

这说明很多问题其实并不在政治家的掌控范围内。

It just shows that a lot of it isn't really within the control of politicians, probably.

我在纽约市长选举后的第二天观察市场，看到一批银行向纽约市租金管制市场提供贷款。

I was watching the market the day after the New York City mayor race, and a bunch of banks who are lenders into the New York City rent regulated market.

当然，曼达尼已承诺冻结租金，意味着他不会允许租金管制公寓和租金稳定公寓的租金上涨。

Of course, Mamdani has promised to freeze the rent, meaning that he will not allow rent regulated, rent stabilized apartments rents to go up.

理论上，这对房东和他们的贷款方当然不利。

In theory, of course, that's bad for landlords and bad for their lenders.

但其中几家银行的股票次日实际上涨了。

But the stocks of several of these banks were actually up the next day.

而且，其中一家最大的公寓开发商——也是最大的公寓房地产投资信托基金之一（同样在纽约拥有租金管制房产）的股价也小幅上涨。

And, the shares of one of the largest, apartment developers, one of the largest apartment real estate investment trusts, which, again, you know, has has rent regulated properties, in New York, their their shares were up a little bit too.

过去两周我报道的市场风波涉及另类资产管理公司，也就是私募股权和信贷公司。

Some drama in the market that I cover in the past couple weeks, the alternative asset managers, also known as the private equity and credit firms.

当黑石集团公布财报时，尽管业绩超预期，股价却下跌了，因为人们非常担忧私人信贷市场的健康状况——而私人信贷已成为黑石的重要业务。

When Blackstone reported earnings, it even though it beat earnings, its earning its shares fell because people were really worried about the health of the private credit market, and private credit has become a very big business for Blackstone.

随着财报季推进，这个叙事似乎发生了变化：越来越多贷款机构开始公布财报，并不断强调近期与First Brands及次级贷款机构Tricolor相关的破产案只是孤立事件。

That narrative seems to have changed throughout the course of the earnings cycle over the weeks as more and more of these lenders started reporting earnings and sort of continued to beat the drum saying that recent bankruptcies tied to First Brands and, a subprime lender called Tricolor, or Tricolor, however you choose to pronounce it, you know, that these bankruptcies were isolated incidents.

这些破产与我们通常所说的私人信贷无关，他们的业务依然健康。

They didn't really have to do with the thing that we normally call private credit, that their businesses were still healthy.

不存在重大危机，随着高管们反复强调这一观点，人们似乎逐渐接受了这种说法，财报后这些公司的股价表现也有所改善。

There's no major crisis going on, and they you know, as executive by executive continue to repeat this mantra, people seemed to maybe sort of buy it a little bit more, and we saw, you know, an improvement in their stock price performance after earnings.

等到阿波罗公布财报时，人们的态度已经变得乐观起来。

By the time Apollo reported, people were kind of cheery about it.

不过阿波罗的财报里还有其他影响因素。

Although there were other factors in that Apollo report too.

是啊。

Yeah.

虽然杰米·戴蒙在本轮周期早些时候用'蟑螂'比喻近期企业破产案吓坏了大家——这些破产让人担心还潜伏着其他灾难。

Although Jamie Dimon scared everybody earlier, this cycle when he talked about cockroaches in reference to recent corporate bankruptcies that were scaring everybody about what other sort of disasters could lurk.

但尽管如此，我们尚未看到这些市场中任何一方出现违约潮。

But, despite that, we haven't seen a wave of increased defaults for any of these markets yet.

或许现在仍有问题在暗流涌动，但市场是否会逐渐让贪婪压倒恐惧——即便存在隐患，这股涌入私募市场的巨额资金潮（追求收益和另类信贷等形式）仍将延续。

Now, maybe there's still things bubbling under the surface, but at some point does the greed factor kick in for the market and overcome the fear factor that, okay, maybe there are some cockroaches, but maybe that these things won't derail what has ultimately been this huge wave of money coming into the private markets, you know, in search of yield and alternative forms of credit and things like that.

人工智能热潮将持续为这一切提供动力。

AI boom will continue to fuel all of this.

而且，你知道的，好吧。

And, you know, okay.

所以我们得捏死几只蟑螂然后继续前进。

So we have to smoosh a couple of cockroaches and then move on.

对吧？

Right?

我认为还存在一种观点：当前股价处于历史高位，我们的同事斯宾塞·雅各布写过一篇广受关注的专栏，指出席勒市盈率这一重要指标显示未来几年股票回报率可能不会太高。

Well, and I think there's also this idea that stocks are at all time highs, and our colleague Spencer Jacob wrote a very well read column about how a very important metric, you know, the Schiller PE ratio is indicating that stocks are not gonna really give us that much over the next few years in terms of returns.

因此人们正在寻找替代方案，有观点认为私募信贷可能成为选项之一。

So people are looking for alternatives, and there's an argument to be made that maybe private credit could be one of those alternatives.

这也是阿波罗公司提出的论点。

And that's an argument that Apollo made too.

所以我觉得这个理论挺有意思。

So I think that's kind of an interesting theory.

我们且看其发展如何。

We'll see if that pans out.

显然，推动这些另类资产管理公司的另一因素是交易环境的改善。

Obviously, another thing powering these alternative asset managers will be the improved deal making environment.

我们正目睹并购活动和交易数量的显著增长。

We're seeing a lot more M and A, a lot more deals taking place.

今年早些时候就有人预测到这种趋势。

People predicted that earlier this year.

现在看起来终于要落地了。

It finally seems to be landing now.

这对这些经理人来说也可能是好事。

That could be good for these managers too.

所以我认为，这是需要密切关注他们的地方。

So that's, I think, something to really watch with them.

说到交易，这关系到我们今天的重要话题——媒体整合，特别是派拉蒙与Skydance和华纳探索之间的潜在交易，以及如果交易失败华纳探索可能面临的其他情况。

And speaking of deal making, that relates to our big conversation today, which is about media consolidation, specifically the possible deal between Paramount Skydance and Warner Discovery and what else might happen to Warner Discovery if that deal doesn't happen.

很高兴我们讨论这个，因为尽管我在媒体行业工作，现在也搞不清各家公司的归属关系。

Well, I'm glad we're doing this because I know even though I work in the media biz, I lose track of who owns what these days.

比如，最近CBS新闻自己成为新闻时，我才知道它归谁所有。

Like, for example, I learned recently when CBS News was in the news itself, who owns them?

到底是哪家

Which which of the

公司拥有他们？

firm owns them?

派拉蒙Skydance拥有CBS。

Paramount Skydance owns CBS.

好的。

Okay.

那CNN则归

And then but then CNN is owned by

华纳探索所有。

Warner Discovery.

好的。

Okay.

太好了。

Great.

那么理论上，它们有可能在某个时间点成为同一家公司的一部分？

So they could, in theory, be part of the same company at some point?

我是说，那岂不是一次相当惊人的整合？

I mean, wouldn't that be quite a convergence?

哇，这可真是够疯狂的。

Well, that's wild stuff.

本期节目我们远程连线了MoffettNathanson的高级分析师迈克尔·内桑森，以及他的同事罗伯特·菲什曼——同样担任MoffettNathanson高级分析师，来讨论这个话题。

And joining us remotely for this episode to talk about that are Michael Nathanson, senior analyst from MoffettNathanson, and his colleague, Robert Fishman, also a senior analyst at MoffettNathanson.

这两位都是资深媒体分析师。

These guys are both longtime media analysts.

他们长期追踪这个行业，认为这很可能是媒体行业漫长整合史上的最终阶段。

They've been following this industry forever, and they say that this is potentially the very last stage in the long history of media consolidation.

是啊。

Yeah.

你们本周早些时候录制的这段访谈，我一直很期待听到内容。

You recorded this interview earlier this week, and I've been excited to hear it ever since.

那我们就开始吧。

So let's get to it.

稍后即将播出。

That's coming up in a bit.

今天我们邀请到的嘉宾是：MoffettNathanson创始人兼高级研究分析师迈克尔·内桑森，以及MoffettNathanson高级研究分析师罗伯特·菲什曼。

We are here with our guests, Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst and founder of MoffettNathanson, and Robert Fishman, senior research analyst, MoffettNathanson.

欢迎二位。

Good to have you guys.

很荣幸参与节目。

Good to be here.

感谢邀请。

Thanks for having us.

当前媒体界最热门的新闻就是派拉蒙与Skydance的动态。

So the biggest story in media right now is what's going on at Paramount Skydance.

这家公司刚完成合并不久，现在又试图收购华纳探索——后者本身就是2022年合并的产物。

Fresh off the merger that created this company, it's now trying to buy Warner Discovery, which is itself a product of a 2022 merger.

这两家公司的合并将催生出一个媒体巨无霸。

And a deal to combine these two companies would create a media behemoth.

罗伯特，派拉蒙Skydance及其CEO大卫·埃里森推动这次合并究竟想实现什么目标？

Robert, what are Paramount Skydance and its CEO, David Ellison, trying to achieve with this merger?

我认为他们选择这个时机推进计划，至少在我看来说明这是蓄谋已久的布局。

I think the timing of when they're trying to do this signals to me at least that this was the plan all along.

我认为他们坚持推进的原因在于必须实现规模效应，特别是在流媒体领域的规模优势。

And the reason that they, I think, are pushing forward here is because they need to reach scale, and scale in streaming specifically.

现在多数媒体公司都在试图与网飞竞争，而后者已经在规模效应和盈利能力方面占据优势。

Most of the media companies are trying to compete with Netflix now, who's already won in terms of the scale war and in terms of profitability.

所以当我们讨论全球规模时，我认为华纳兄弟...

So, when you think about global scale, what I think Warner Bros.

探索集团想为派拉蒙解决的，就是帮助他们更接近实现全球规模的野心。

Discovery is looking to solve for Paramount is to get them closer to to achieve that global scale ambition.

这正好引出了我的下一个问题：当前媒体行业正面临多重压力因素的冲击。

And that kind of gets to the next question I wanted to ask you, which is the media business is facing a lot of stress right now from a variety of factors.

包括流媒体经济模式转型、有线电视生态持续衰落，以及TikTok等短视频平台的崛起。

We have, you know, the changing economics of streaming, the ongoing decline of the cable ecosystem and the rise of short form video sites like TikTok.

正如你所说，行业整合与规模效应能如何改变这种局面？

What can consolidation and scale, as you said, do to change that?

就全球规模而言，这些媒体公司真正需要的是建立全球订阅用户基础，从而将投资成本分摊到更庞大的用户群上。

So in terms of the global scale, really what these media companies need to achieve is having that global subscriber base that allows you to spread all of this investment costs over a much larger base.

因此他们需要的规模效应，如果从美国市场说起，就是通过订阅定价和未来更重要的广告收入，来提升现有用户的变现能力。

And so what they need from the scale, both in The US, if we want to start there, is the ability to better monetize the existing subscribers, both through subscription pricing, but also, probably more importantly, going forward, advertising.

随着这些广告资金从您提到的传统线性生态系统转向联网电视和观众现今接触内容的不同方式，这使您在未来能更好地竞争这些广告资金，尤其是在全球范围内，考虑到这些公司未来五到十年的发展计划时。

As these ad dollars are shifting from the traditional linear ecosystem that you alluded to and going towards connected TV and different ways that the viewers are engaging with content today, that allows you to compete better for those ad dollars going forward, especially on a global basis when thinking about how these companies are looking to grow over the next five, ten years.

是的，米里亚姆，过去十年最大的变化就是这些真正大型科技公司的崛起，它们拥有庞大的资产负债表和全球影响力，对吧？

Yeah, Miriam, what's been the biggest change in the past decade has been the advance of these really large tech companies who have enormous balance sheets, global reach, right?

所以想想现在与我们媒体覆盖范围竞争的对手，是像亚马逊、亚马逊Prime、当然还有YouTube和谷歌这样的公司。

So if think about the people that are now competing with our coverage of media, it's the likes of Amazon, Amazon Prime, of course, YouTube and Google.

网飞是一家巨型企业。

Netflix is a massive company.

如果你是一家传统媒体公司，你必须获得规模优势——资产负债表的规模、现金流的规模、成本削减的规模。

If you're a traditional media company, you have to get scale, scale of balance sheet, scale of cash flow, scale of cost cutting.

这与罗伯特和我二十年前开始职业生涯时面临的局面完全不同。

It is a different playing field than what Robert and I encountered when we started our careers twenty years ago.

情况已经完全颠倒了。

Things have flipped on its head.

过去我们常说，国际媒体业务就是澳大利亚、加拿大和英国，因为我们都说英语，现在这已不再成立。

And in the days where we used to say, international businesses and media were Australia, Canada and The UK because we spoke English, that's no longer true.

我认为我们这些公司——即我们早年就开始报道的那些媒体企业——它们迟迟没有意识到：要在全球所有市场的所有价格区间、所有内容类型中都具备规模优势，才能实现长期竞争。

And I think our companies, ours being the media companies that we started covering way back when, they've been slow to wake up to the fact that you need global scale in all markets of the world at all price points, at all content types in order to compete longer term.

所以我们真的应该开始把这些媒体公司视为在很多方面与大型科技公司资产负债表竞争的主体。

So we should really start to be thinking about these media companies as competing with the big tech balance sheets in a lot of ways.

我是说，这对它们来说是个相当高的门槛。

I mean, that that's a pretty high hurdle for them.

我认为这对它们确实是个很高的门槛。

I I think it's a really high hurdle for them.

就像我和罗伯特经常讨论的，我认为目前媒体公司最大的优势是他们签下的五到七年体育合约。

I think, as Robert and I talk about all the time, the media company's biggest strengths, I'd say right now, would be sports contracts that they've tied up for five to seven years.

还有内容库，他们拥有出色的内容库和优质的知识产权。

And library, they have great library, they have great IP.

我认为罗伯特和我都同意，科技公司正在逐步侵蚀体育版权领域。

And I think Robert and I would agree that they're starting to chip away the tech companies at the sports rights.

你们看到这种情况越来越普遍。

You're seeing that more and more.

更困难的部分在于，罗伯特，科技公司至今未能建立起像Netflix那样持续产出优质内容库的能力。

The harder part Robert, right, has been they've not able to, tech companies have not been able to build, even Netflix, this kind of recurring great library content.

你得有《怪奇物语》这样的爆款，但那只是昙花一现。

You gotta have Stranger Things, but that's a one off.

我们不具备迪士尼、华纳环球派拉蒙所拥有的知识产权储备。

I don't have the IP that Disney or Warner's Universal Paramount would have.

所以这本质上还是媒体公司的知识产权博弈。

So it's still really an IP game, yeah, for the media companies.

是的，我正想提到这点。

Yeah, I was going to go there, too.

就体育领域而言，迈克尔提到的科技公司都将体育视为传统媒体生态系统的最后关键知识产权。

So in terms of sports, I mean, clearly, the tech companies that Michael referenced are all looking at sports as this last critical IP to the traditional media ecosystem.

如果他们能颠覆这个领域，就等于动摇了传统媒体赖以维持的最后一根支柱——既能带来增量广告收入，又能守住联盟转播费。

And if they can disrupt that, that's like the next leg in terms of where traditional media has been holding on to as their last real asset to drive incremental advertising and to hold on to affiliate fee dollars as well.

但如果未来他们丧失对体育版权的独家控制权，传统生态系统将遭受新一轮冲击。

But if they lose control exclusively over the sports rights going forward, that's going to have another leg down in terms of the disruption that it's had on the traditional ecosystem.

因此，谁能将核心知识产权资源整合到流媒体与非流媒体领域并实现变现，谁就掌握了终极竞争方案。

So if you can bring the critical IP franchises to the table and monetize that in both the streaming and non streaming world, that's kind of like the ultimate solution here to compete.

米利亚姆，针对你的第一个问题，市场已经明确告诉我们：

Miriam, to your first question, I think the market was telling us clearly that our Paramount Global on its own and Warner Bros.

仅凭派拉蒙全球和华纳兄弟探索现有的资产负债表和资产配置，他们无法成为这个行业的长期赢家。

Discovery on its own with the balance sheets that they had and their assets we're not going to be long term winners in this business.

某种程度上，派拉蒙似乎正在与时间赛跑，亟需通过某种方式壮大自身实力。

So in a way, it's almost like a race against time for Paramount's guidance to bulk up in some way to get there, it seems like.

罗伯特，考虑到派拉蒙和Skydance即将公布财报，以及当前的各种情况，投资者会重点关注这份报告中的哪些内容？

And Robert, given that, you know, we have Paramount Skydance reporting earnings coming up and given everything that's going on, what will investors be focused on in that report?

我的意思是，他们是否只关注整体情况，还是说他们更在意本季度的实际数据？

I mean, are they just looking at the big picture or do they care about, you know, the actual numbers for the quarter?

嗯，我认为很明显第三季度的数据在整体格局中并不那么重要，尤其是考虑到派拉蒙的未来规划——这将是他们首次向华尔街展示发展方向。

Well, I think it's clear that the numbers for 3Q specifically are are are much less important in terms of the overall picture here, especially when thinking about the future of Paramount and and what we're gonna learn in terms of the plans, that this is really the first unveiling to Wall Street in terms of where they want to go with this.

听听他们将如何把整合计划纳入其中会很有趣。

It will be interesting to hear how much we hear about consolidation as part of that plan.

但即便不考虑整合，埃里森和整个Skydance团队显然都在着眼于长期发展。

But even without consolidation, clearly, Ellison and the whole Skydance team is thinking about the long term here.

从他们早期的多项投资就能看出这一点，虽然初期可能面临财务压力——比如UFC交易就是个例子。

You've seen that through a lot of their early investments, and they might be head scratching and try to have difficulty in terms of making the math work initially, thinking about the UFC deal as one example.

但如果他们是以未来五到十年而非两三年的视角来规划，我想这正是投资者所期待的。

But if they're thinking about this from a completely different perspective about the next, call it, five, ten years and not the next couple of years, I think that's what investors are probably looking for.

如何从这些初期投资中获得回报？

How can you get returns on some of these initial investments?

能否为不了解情况的观众详细说说UFC交易？

Can you tell us a little bit more about the UFC deal for those who weren't following it?

当然。

Sure.

ESPN原本拥有UFC转播权，而UFC母公司TKO通过市场竞标找到了出价远超市场预期的竞标者。

ESPN had the rights to the UFC deal, and basically TKO, who owns the UFC, took that to market and found a plus one bidder that was willing to pay, in our perspective, much higher than what market suggested.

这实际上向市场传递了一个信号：派拉蒙将以截然不同的方式处理这类投资。

And so what it did was really signal to the market that Paramount is going to approach these investments in a very different way.

虽然初期可能会亏损，但派拉蒙认为通过整合带来的订阅用户增长可以抵消前期损失。

Again, that might mean losing money initially, but I'm sure from Paramount's perspective that if they can drive incremental subs on a combined basis, that can help offset the the upfront losses.

所以这是要一鸣惊人啊。

So making a splash here at the beginning.

我们拭目以待吧，我想。

We'll see how that works out, I guess.

我想退一步纵观全局，然后转向你，迈克尔，因为你长期报道媒体行业，对这些公司的来龙去脉了如指掌。

I wanna take a step back and zoom out a little bit, And I want to turn to you, Michael, because you covered media for a really long time and you have been following the ins and outs of these companies for a long time.

它们其实是一部漫长历史的一部分，你知道的，大型媒体公司不断合并又分拆。

And they're really part of a long history of, you know, big media companies getting together, breaking apart again.

回顾历史，媒体并购、媒体联姻是否为股东带来了积极成果？

And, you know, if you look back at history, have media deals, media tie ups yielded positive results for shareholders?

它们对股东来说是好事吗？

Have they been a good thing for shareholders?

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢，米里亚姆。

Thanks, Miriam.

谢谢你这么说。

Thanks for saying that.

我年纪大了，但很感激你这么说。

I'm old, but I appreciate that.

在华尔街工作之前，我曾在一家叫时代华纳的公司任职。

Before I worked on Wall Street, I worked at a company called Time Warner.

时代华纳堪称大型媒体并购的典型案例。

And Time Warner was kind of poster child for big media tie ups.

如果你还记得，当时这两家公司合并后，又收购了特纳和美国在线。

If you remember in that time, if these two companies merged, then they bought Turner and AOL.

这永远会成为我的第一号证据，说明为什么这些联姻在纸面上看似美好，战略上也合理。

And that's always going to be kind of my exhibit one of why these tie ups may look great on paper and strategically make sense.

但就是行不通。

They just don't work.

所以我并不乐见这些大规模的捆绑交易。

So I don't love seeing these massive tie ups.

我认为这些年来我和罗伯特学到的经验是，像收购皮克斯、收购Tubi（福克斯所为）这类小规模精准收购更为有效。

I think what we've learned over the years, Robert and I, is that the small tuck in deals like buying a Pixar, buying a Tubi, which what Fox did.

采取战略眼光投资成长型领域并保持创业精神，才是资本更优的运用方式。因为试图通过并购实现规模扩张，最终往往要为实际价值远低于收购溢价的企业买单。

Like being strategic and investing in growing categories with entrepreneurial spirits is a better use of capital because trying to find scale through M and A, you end up paying a big premium for businesses that really, at the end of the day, don't live up to the valuations that were paid.

罗伯特，你对此怎么看？

Robert, what do you think about that?

考虑到这段历史，派拉蒙的投资者是否应该支持这次合并？

I mean, given that history, should Paramount investors be rooting for this merger?

那么华纳探索的投资者呢？

And what about Warner Discovery investors?

从华纳探索投资者的角度，显然你们会力挺这类合并。

Well, from Warner Discovery investors, I think you're clearly rooting for these mergers.

但从派拉蒙方面，正如迈克尔所言，我不禁自问：这次真的会因流媒体这个变量而有所不同吗？

But from the Paramount side, as Michael was saying that, I was questioning to myself, is this time really going to be different because streaming is this X factor?

确实，就传统线性媒体而言，正如迈克尔指出的，我们没看到太多成功案例。

Clearly, from the linear media side, I think, to Michael's point, we haven't seen a lot of success stories there.

但针对流媒体，我要提出疑问：这几乎已成为生存必需了吗？

But for streaming, I would raise the question, is this almost a necessity?

再次回到规模问题，这些独立流媒体平台单打独斗根本无法竞争。

Again, back to the scale issue, these standalone streaming services can't compete on their own.

因此我认为它们必须整合几乎是必然选择。

So I would argue it's almost a necessity that they have to come together.

看看探索频道在与华纳媒体合并前的独立状态。

Let's look at Discovery standalone before they merge with WarnerMedia.

显然那并不成功，现在又回到了华纳兄弟的怀抱。

Clearly, that has not worked out well, back to the Warner Bros.

Discovery的投资者们。

Discovery investors.

但说实话，如果没有它，Discovery独立运营的情况可能会更糟。

But at the same time, without it, Discovery standalone probably would have been even worse off, to be honest about it.

所以如果我们思考什么是必需品与最终回报在哪里，这两个答案可能大不相同。

So if we think about what is a necessity versus where the end payoff is, those two answers might be pretty different.

Michael，在多年报道媒体行业后，你现在专注于大型科技公司。

Michael, after years of covering media, you now focus on big tech.

正如我们讨论的，像亚马逊、苹果，当然还有Netflix这些公司现在都是媒体游戏中的重要玩家。

And, you know, as we've been talking about, these companies like Amazon and Apple and obviously Netflix are big players, you know, in the media game now.

我们知道Netflix是一家战略相当专注的公司。

We know Netflix, it's a pretty focused company in terms of its strategy.

但如果我是苹果或亚马逊，我在媒体领域的目标是什么？

But if if I'm Apple or Amazon, what is my goal in media?

我想实现什么？

What am I trying to achieve?

华纳探索曾表示，其部分资产可能会引起这类公司的兴趣。

And, you know, Warner Discovery has said that maybe some of its assets could be of interest to companies like that.

他们可能会试图购买什么？

What would they be possibly trying to buy?

好的。

Okay.

如果你是苹果，我不确定这个问题的答案是什么。

If if if you're Apple, I'm not sure what the answer to that question is.

他们一直在制作优质内容，但苹果是个谜。

You know, they've been making great content for a while here, but Apple is an enigma.

我不明白为什么他们没有更积极地争取体育赛事版权，为什么有机会时没有考虑收购其他公司。

I don't understand why they haven't gotten more aggressive in sports rights, why they haven't looked at other companies to buy when they had a chance.

我不认为苹果清楚自己在媒体领域的发展方向，他们更大的挑战其实是把Siri打造成人们喜爱的下一代人工智能平台。

I don't think Apple knows what it wants to do when it grows up in media and their bigger challenge is really trying to build Siri to be next gen AI platform that people love.

所以如果苹果突然打破常规转向媒体领域，我会感到惊讶。

So I'd be surprised if Apple kind of broke thesis and went after media.

亚马逊的意图很明显，对吧？

Amazon, it's clear what they're doing, right?

他们的广告平台正在迅猛发展，对吧？

Their ad platform is growing like gangbusters, right?

而且他们基本上越来越专注于亚马逊Prime的体育内容。

And they have basically focused more and more sports Amazon Prime.

他们从NFL开始，现在又拿下了本赛季的NBA。

They started the NFL, now they have the NBA this season.

所以我认为亚马逊的立场是：这是颠覆传统电视领域的方式，通过增加优质内容来推动平台广告业务。

So I think if you're Amazon, you're like, look, this is a way to disrupt the linear world, add premium content and drive ads through our platform.

我们掌握所有第一方数据。

We have all the first party data.

我们知道米里亚姆和罗伯特分别买了什么。

We know what Miriam bought versus Robert.

我们拥有所有这些品牌连接，因为我们帮助品牌在亚马逊上销售更多商品。

We have all this brand connectivity because we help brands sell more things on Amazon.

我们只需要找到更多广告投放的接触点。

Let's just find more surface areas to sell more advertising.

因此我认为他们的商业逻辑非常严密完整。

So I think their story is really tight and really complete.

而且我认为，他们短期内不会退出这个领域。

And I think, you know, we think that they're not going away anytime soon.

话说回华纳探索，如果他们真的对某些资产感兴趣，可能会是哪些资产呢？

And, you know, going back to Warner Discovery, what kinds of things like, if if if they were truly interested in some of the assets, like, what assets might they be interested in?

你们拥有所有DC的内容资源

You have all the DC content.

你们有着DC漫画的辉煌历史

You have a great history of DC comics.

因此全球观众可以通过亚马逊看到更多蝙蝠侠和超人的内容

So you could see more Batman, more Superman coming through Amazon globally.

CNN，你们想加入CNN吗？

CNN, you want to add CNN?

罗伯特，我漏掉什么了吗？

Robert, am I missing anything?

比如，关于亚马逊为何要追逐这些资产的论点？

Like, for the Amazon thesis of why Amazon would want to chase these guys?

我认为归根结底在于那些极具价值的IP

I think it comes down to that very valuable IP.

我们还没提到HBO，这显然是他们的皇冠明珠之一

We didn't touch on HBO, which obviously is one of the crown jewels there.

HBO和华纳兄弟

HBO and Warner Bros.

无论是电视内容还是院线内容，都将成为其他公司至少会考虑收购的理由，对吧？

Content, both on the TV side and on the theatrical side, would be the reason that all of these other companies are going to at least look, right?

我们的同事克雷格·莫菲特负责康卡斯特的报道

Our colleague Craig Moffitt covers Comcast.

他一直对布莱恩·罗伯茨能否获得必要的监管批准持怀疑态度，我们将看看布莱恩能否通过交易谈判达成协议

He's been a bit doubtful that Brian Roberts will find the regulatory approval necessary to buy these assets, and we'll see if Brian Roberts is able to horse trade to get a deal done.

所以我不确定康卡斯特目前真的已经退出竞购

So I'm not sure that Comcast is is really out of this at this point.

迈克尔，能否请你说明一下康卡斯特/NBC环球为何可能对华纳探索的部分资产感兴趣

Michael, if you could just tell us, you know, why Comcast, NBCU might be interested in some of the Warner Discovery assets.

原因有很多。

There's a bunch of reasons.

其一是孔雀平台，你会说它有4100万订阅用户但增长停滞。

One is Peacock, you'd argue, 41,000,000 subs, not growing.

没有全球布局就意味着规模不足，对吧？

No global footprint is under scale, right?

所以HBO和孔雀平台能解决孔雀的问题，它们各自都有全球业务。

So HBO and Peacock solves a Peacock problem, each of those global.

环球影业、华纳兄弟和NBC在地理上都是连成一片的。

Universal Studios and Warner's and NBC are all contiguous.

从伯班克到大学城，它们都共享着同一片产业区。

They all, between Burbank and University City, they share a footprint.

把环球和华纳合并后，你将打造出全球最具活力的制片厂。

You would build the most dynamic studio in the world by combining Universal and Warner's.

这会非常有意思。

That'd be pretty interesting.

你还能把所有体育版权集中到一处，对吧？

You also have all these sports rights in one place, right?

包括NBA（现在归康卡斯特所有）、NHL和棒球赛事。

So you have the NBA, which now Comcast has, the NHL and baseball.

而且康卡斯特正在分拆Versant，这是一家有线网络公司。

And also now Comcast is spinning out Versant, which is a cable network company.

通过整合Versant和华纳探索的资产，他们可以大幅削减有线业务容量。

And they can take out a lot of capacity in cable by combining Versant and Warner Discovery's assets.

没错，Versant本质上就是康卡斯特所有有线网络业务分拆成的独立公司，对吧？

Right, Versant is basically all of the Comcast cable networks spun out into one separate company, right?

除了Bravo频道之外的所有业务。

Everything but Bravo.

Bravo在Peacock平台上运作。

Bravo works on Peacock.

是的，在我看来，这比派拉蒙合适多了，是更理想的选择。

Yeah, to me, that's the perfect that's a it's a much better fit in my view than Paramount.

那么，迈克尔，假设这家超级媒体公司——我暂且亲切地称之为派拉蒙天舞华纳探索（直到有更好的名字）——成立了。

So, Michael, let's say this mega media company, which I'm going to lovingly call Paramount Skydance Warner Discovery or in until it gets a better name, created.

这对竞争格局意味着什么？

What would that mean for the competitive landscape?

比如说，如果我现在是迪士尼，我会因为这件事可能发生而吓得发抖吗？

I mean, if I'm Disney right now, for example, am I quaking in my boots at the thought that this could happen?

我认为你不会发抖，因为合并后这些公司会发生变化。

I don't think you're quaking your boots because what's gonna happen here is that these companies will merge.

他们在内容投资类型上会更加审慎。

There'll be more disciplined on the types of content they invest in.

是的，规模会更大，或许能承担更昂贵的项目。

Yes, they'll be bigger and they'll be afford maybe more expensive things.

但归根结底，你会少一个竞争对手，对吧？

But at the end of the day, you will lose a competitor, right?

派拉蒙或HBO将合并为一家。

Paramount or HBO will be merged into one.

你会少一个竞争对手。

You're gonna lose a competitor.

由于要缩减电影投资规模，你能制作的电影也会减少，对吧？

You won't be able to make as many films because you're gonna look to scale back your film investment, right?

所以最终，我认为行业内的所有参与者都会因减少一个竞争对手而受益——虽然规模仍在，但周末档期和新内容投资的竞争压力会减轻，对吧？

So at the end of the day, I would say everyone who's in this industry will be better off by having another competitor, no doubt scaled, but just less competition for weekends and for new content investments, right?

因此我认为这笔交易对现有企业来说非常健康。

So I think it's really healthy for the incumbents to have this deal happen.

我们要稍作休息。

We're going to take a quick break.

回来后我们还有一个问题要讨论。

When we come back, we've got one more question.

现在我们继续与MoffettNathanson的Michael Nathanson对话。

We are back with Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson.

Michael，你知道，我以前在《街头伤痛》负责媒体板块，所以一直关注这些动态。

Michael, you know, I used to cover media for Hurt on the Street, so I was following a lot of this stuff.

我也长期从事这个领域，所以你不是唯一的老兵。

I've been doing it for a long time too, so you're not the only old one.

Viacom曾分拆为Viacom和CBS，后来又合并成派拉蒙，接着与Skydance合并，现在又想与华纳探索合并。

Viacom split into Viacom and CBS, which later merged back together to create Paramount, which then merged with Skydance and now wants to merge with Warner Discovery.

十年后，我们会不会又在讨论这些公司为何再次分拆？

A decade from now, will we be talking about why these companies are breaking up again?

是的。

Yeah.

顺便说，那本就是原罪。

That was the original sin, by the way.

把Viacom拆分成两家是有史以来最愚蠢的决定之一。

The breakup of the Viacom into two pieces was one of the dumbest things ever.

当时我们就都心知肚明。

We all knew it at the time.

看看Redstone家族因此遭受了多么惨重的投资损失。

And look how badly the Redstone family has done as investors because of it.

但我觉得这出闹剧该收场了。

But I think we're at the end.

说实话，这对我来说有点悲哀。

That's kind of the sad part for me, truth be told.

我们已经走到尽头了。

We're at the end.

这很可能是我们看到的最后一笔巨额交易。

This is probably the last mega deal we will see.

如果问题出在有线网络资产而非广播资产上，有线网络业务将被从企业的资产负债表中剥离。

If the cable network assets are the problem, not the broadcast asset, the cable networks, but that's gonna be pushed off of people's balance sheets.

剩下的将是制片厂、流媒体、广播业务及其组合形态。

And what's left will be studios, streaming, broadcast, and some combination of that.

差不多就这样结束了，玛丽。

And that's kind of the end of it, Mary.

就像我回到泰·华纳初创时期那样，作为这里首个媒体巨头的我们，我认为使命即将完成。

And we're like like I go back to my Ty Warner start, now like the first mega conglomerate here, I think we're almost done.

你知道，那个资产将不复存在，这令人遗憾。

You know, that asset will no longer exist, sadly enough.

明白吗？

You know?

哇。

Wow.

一个时代的终结。

End of an era.

这给了我很多思考的空间。

Well, this has given me a lot to think about.

我热爱探讨媒体行业。

I love talking about media.