点数成金 - 6. 专访Blockworks资深研究员Kunal:为何在“平淡期”仍看好AI与RWA(英文原版) 封面

6. 专访Blockworks资深研究员Kunal:为何在“平淡期”仍看好AI与RWA(英文原版)

6. 专访Blockworks资深研究员Kunal:为什么在“垃圾时间”依然看好AI与RWA(英文原版)

本集简介

嘉宾: Kunal | Blockworks研究分析师 制作/主持: Danny He 本期简介: 本期节目荣幸邀请到备受尊敬的加密研究分析师Kunal,其撰写的市场报告已成为应对近期市场波动的必读材料。 当市场遭遇大幅回调时,真正驱动价格波动的幕后因素是什么?当"轻松交易"机会消失时,价值该从何处挖掘?本次对话将穿透市场杂音,以清晰的数据视角剖析塑造加密市场下一阶段的关键力量。 常驻新加坡的Kunal为机构级研究平台Blockworks供稿,擅长将链上深度分析与全球宏观视角相结合。从会计金融专业学生到成为加密研究领域权威声量的职业历程,赋予了他解剖市场结构与新兴机遇的独特视角。 本场探讨重点包括: • 十一月暴跌解码:ETF资金流、数字资产国债与巨鲸行为如何共同触发抛售潮 • 逆境中寻找阿尔法:为何AI和RWA等领域的基本面依然重要,如何在低流动性环境中识别催化剂 • 个人投资框架:Kunal如何构建横跨加密与传统资产的组合,及其风险管理方法论 • 关键叙事深潜: - Centrifuge超越国债的真实潜力,为何2026年可能成为其突破之年 - Solana ETF资金流入被低估的原因,以及Pump等项目的投资逻辑 - 股权永续合约兴起及Hyperliquid等协议的发展机遇 Blockworks研究官网:https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ 推特:@Kunallegendd 领英:https://www.linkedin.com/in/kunal-doshi-caia-105970109/ 所有讨论内容仅作信息参考,不构成投资建议。 欢迎留言交流,也可添加微信(Tracy_6652042)加入听众社群获得更直接互动。 时间轴: 02:01 从会计系学生到加密分析师:Kunal的行业突围之路 05:06 市场暴跌时研究分析师如何保持客观并发现机会? 07:22 AI和RWA是仅存的基本面价值领域吗? 10:53 如何平衡加密资产与传统资产配置? 15:04 机构资金流解码:比特币30%暴跌的真正推手 22:27 当前机构资金正在布局哪些领域? 29:26 现有加密投资讨论中存在哪些认知盲区? 31:27 两个被低估的价值标的 37:00 给新入行者的实用建议 制作团队: 联合制作:Tracy 剪辑:觉狐 感谢Tech Week Shanghai特别赞助!

双语字幕

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无论处于牛市还是熊市格局,研究始终是研究。

Whether you're in a bullish setup or a bearish setup, research is research.

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厘清事实是关键。

Clarification is a key.

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我认为进入这个领域的一个好方法是大量写作。

I think a good way to break into this sector is to write a lot.

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稳定币几乎在全球范围内都呈现上升趋势。

Stablecoins are picking up almost globally.

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大家好,欢迎收听我的播客《未来资产》。

Hi everyone, welcome to my podcast Future Assets.

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每周我们都会将最敏锐的全球微观动态带到亚洲,并将最热门的链上数据转化为浅显易懂的解读。

Every week we bring the sharpest global micro to Asia and turn the hottest on chain data into plain English.

Speaker 1

从华尔街到央行,从代币化宝藏到亚洲现实世界资产,我们只讨论那些真正关乎未来的资产。

From Wall Street to Central, from Tokenization's treasures to Asian RWAs, we only talk about assets that will actually matter tomorrow.

Speaker 1

欢迎来到《未来资产》,在这里我们将数字节点转化为真金白银。

Welcome to Future Assets, where we turn digital dots into real gold.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

大家好。

So hi everyone.

Speaker 1

我们非常荣幸地欢迎

We are extremely honored to welcome Mr.

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Blackwalks的研究分析师库耐先生。

Ku Nai, the research analyst at Blackwalks.

Speaker 1

您可能已经注意到,《AI Ready Meets BTC Drop》和《当轻松交易者绝望时》已成为任何试图应对11月市场回调人士的必读文章。

You'll note from AI Ready Meets BTC Drop and When the Easy Traders Despair have become most read for anyone trying to navigate this November drawdown.

Speaker 1

库耐,能先向我们的观众打个招呼吗?

So Kunai, could you please first say hi to our audience?

Speaker 0

是的,大家好,很高兴认识你们,也很期待能与更多以亚洲为中心的观众交流。想听听你们对市场的看法或评论,因为这将带来多元视角,也是我学习的机会。

Yeah, hey everyone, nice to meet you, would love to you know speak to a more Asian focused audience as well and yeah interesting to hear any takes you have or any comments you guys have on the market because it'll be like a diverse perspective and something for me to learn from as well.

Speaker 0

非常期待这次交流。

So excited to do this.

Speaker 1

好的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

那么Kunai,能否先向我们的观众介绍一下你的职业起点?比如你在大学主修什么专业,以及是如何进入加密货币行业的?

So Kunai, could you first explain to our audience how you start your career, like which subject you're learning in the university and how you step into this, you know, crypto industry?

Speaker 0

当然可以。

Yeah, for sure.

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我在新加坡管理大学就读。

So in university, I was studying at Singapore Management University.

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我学的是会计与金融。

I did accounting and finance.

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最初我非常想在金融领域发展职业,主要是风险投资和早期投资方向。

So initially I really wanted to pursue a career in the finance field, mainly in venture capital and early stage investing.

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那是我早期的兴趣所在,但大学第二年时加密货币开始兴起,我记得差不多是在市场高峰期,当时我就想'这个领域值得一试,我需要积累些经验'。很幸运地获得了Spartan Group的实习机会,当时同时参与了流动性基金和风险基金的工作,这是我首次接触加密领域,也是从那时起对这个领域产生了极大热情。

So that was my early interest but in the second year of university crypto was starting to pick up I think it was near the peak and I was like hey you know this is a sector I want to try I want to get some experience in so I was lucky enough to get an internship at Spartan Group So back then I was both on the liquid fund and the venture fund and that was my first entry and exposure to the crypto space and that's when I got really excited about the space.

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我看到专业人士如何真正重视某些加密代币,我也知道这个领域未来会继续发展壮大。

I saw how the professionals really valued some of the crypto tokens and I knew that the space was going to grow moving forward as well.

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当时就有这种远见,知道这个领域会变得很大,但从某种意义上说还处于早期阶段,那时我身边没多少同龄人有意在这个领域发展职业。

Had that vision that you know this is going to get a lot bigger but it was still early in that sense that you know not many of my peers were interested to pursue a career in the space back then.

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所以我决定,与其和许多其他想进入金融行业的学生竞争,为什么不尝试一些更新颖、更小众的领域呢?

So I decided that hey you know instead of competing with many other students who want to break in the finance industry, why not I take my hand at something more new, more niche.

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即使在加密领域,你也可以运用很多用于评估其他金融工具的概念。

And even in the crypto space like you can apply a lot of concepts you use to value other financial instruments.

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从这个意义上说,我在学校学到的知识至少在某些方面直接适用于我在加密领域的角色。

So in that sense the things I learned in school was directly applicable in some ways at least due to my role in the crypto field.

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于是我就这么做了,实习结束后,我花了一年半时间真正打磨加密领域的基础知识,自己撰写研究报告,还搭建了一些数据看板。

So I did that, like I think after my internship, I spent the next one and a half years really honing my crypto fundamentals, writing research pieces myself, built some data dashboards as well.

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毕业后,我重新加入了斯巴达团队,在流动基金部门担任投资分析师。

Upon graduation, I then joined back the Spartan team as investment analyst on the liquid fund side.

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这就是我真正开启加密领域职业生涯的历程。

So that was how I really kicked off my career in the crypto space.

Speaker 1

非常有趣。

Very interesting.

Speaker 1

Kunai,我想问我的第二个问题。

Kunai, I want to ask my second question.

Speaker 1

从Spartan的买方角色转型成为加密领域最具影响力的公众声音之一,鉴于我们是在2021年11月进行这次访谈,当前的市场状况是否让你的工作节奏、受众群体以及成就感来源都产生了前所未有的深刻变化?

Having moved from the buyer set at the Spartan to become one of the most read public voice in crypto, you know, since we are doing this record in November 21, has this November situation made the rhythm of your work, your audience and where you derive fulfilment feel more profoundly different than ever before.

Speaker 0

嗯,明白。

Yeah, got it.

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我的意思是,在买方这边工作压力要大得多,因为你必须时刻关注市场,很多不可控因素都会影响你的业绩表现。

I mean, so with the buy side, right, it's a lot more stressful when, you're always having to monitor the market and a lot of things that you can't control will affect your performance.

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所以这是个令人兴奋的岗位,但压力也大得多。

So it's an exciting role, but it's a lot more stressful.

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而我真正喜欢买方角色的一点在于发现超额收益,分析并量化潜在上涨空间。

And what I really liked about the buy side role was finding alpha, breaking it down and quantifying what the potential upside could be.

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这就是我从Spartan Group跳槽到Blockworks Research现职的原因——在这里无论市场处于牛市还是熊市,研究本质始终不变。

So that was the reason, for my switch from Spartan Group to the current role at Blockworks Research because here it doesn't matter what the market condition is, Whether you're in a bullish setup or a bearish setup, research is research.

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这个领域总有新事物涌现,我的工作就是报道它,我有充分自由去报道任何我感兴趣的内容,流程始终如一。

There's always new things happening in the space and my job is to cover it and I get a full leeway to cover whatever interests me and it's the same process right.

Speaker 0

我会关注有趣的领域,分析哪些代币最可能从中受益,运用金融原理或方法论来评估这些代币的合理估值,并观察哪些催化剂可能推动代币价格上涨。

I look at sectors that are interesting, I break it down which tokens are most likely benefit from this narrative, I will apply a set of like financial principles or methodologies to try to value these tokens and find out the fair value of the tokens and then look at what are the catalysts that could potentially cause the token price to do well.

Speaker 0

你说得对,在市场情绪如此低迷的时期,保持乐观并不容易,但放眼长远,,仍有许多令人振奋的发展正在发生。

And you're right I mean in times like this when the market is it's, it's very bearish sentiment, it's not always easy to be positive about the space, but if you zoom out, there's a lot of like interesting developments still happening.

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美国正迎来有利于监管的政策环境。

There's a lot of, there's a pro regulatory climate in The US.

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许多新型金融工具也在涌现,比如ETF产品。

A lot of, new instruments are coming up as well, such as ETF products.

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因此看涨的理由依然充分。

So there's a lot of reasons to be bullish.

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你只需把视野放宽些。

You just got to zoom out a little.

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研究工作的魅力在于,它的需求永不停歇。

And the thing with research is there's always demand for it.

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对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

我认为我们也从传统金融人士那里获得了大量需求,他们只是想更多地了解加密货币领域,鉴于它在美国的发展势头有多迅猛。

I think we're getting a lot of demand from TradFi folks as well, just to know more about the crypto space given how much it's picking up in The US.

Speaker 1

谢谢你,Puna。

Thank you, Puna.

Speaker 1

所以你刚才也提到,你一直在努力研究空军方面的情况。

So you also mentioned that you are always trying to, you know, do the research about the Air Force side.

Speaker 1

你持续将AI和RWA列为仅有的两个基本面仍在加速增长的领域,如果我没理解错的话。

You constantly flag AI and RWA as the only two sectors, where fundamentals are still accelerating, if I am right.

Speaker 1

而且你在这两个领域都公开践行自己的投资理念。

And you openly eat your own cooking in both.

Speaker 1

在你11月3日的笔记中,当eBay交易消失时,你指出RWA是少数仍在低效市场中获取超额收益的领域之一。

You know in your November 3 notes, when the eBay trade disappeared, you pointed out that RWA was one of the only sectors still gathering alpha in a low environment.

Speaker 1

考虑到如今AI独立发展而BTC拖累市场的现实情况。

You know, given the today's reality of AI independently while the BTC drags the market.

Speaker 1

就你个人而言,你在这两个最看好的主题上是如何布局的?为什么?

How are you personally positioned across these two themes you know or you believe the most and why?

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这是个好问题。

That's a good question.

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实际上这里有些细微差别。

Actually a bit of nuance there.

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我不会说AI和RWS领域是仅有的两个基本面起作用的行业。

I wouldn't say that the AI and RWS sector are the only two sectors where fundamentals matter.

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整体而言,基本面因素越来越重要,即使是对于DeFi领域、一层协议或消费产品也是如此。

Across the board fundamentals are increasingly starting to matter even for like the DeFi sector or like layer ones or consumer products.

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所以,投资者现在更加重视基本面因素。

So, you know, investors are giving a lot more weightage to fundamentals.

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只是Blockworks更多地覆盖AI和RWS领域。

It's just that for Blockworks, cover more of the AI and RWS sector.

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因此我自然会更频繁地阅读这个领域的资讯。

So naturally I read a lot more about this sector.

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我对这个领域了解得更为深入。

I'm a lot more in the weeds about this sector.

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因此我对这个领域也感到更加兴奋。

So I get a lot more excited about this sector as well.

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我不得不说,即使在最近的市场抛售中,它本质上仍然具有很强的周期性。

And I would have to say like even in the recent, like in the recent market sell off, it's still very cyclical in nature.

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有些周人工智能和现实世界资产代币表现良好,有些周则表现不佳。

You have some weeks where AI and real world asset tokens do well, some weeks they perform poorly.

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我认为这更多反映了当前流动性相当稀薄的市场结构。

And I would say it speaks more to the market structure now where liquidity is rather thin.

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所以基本上每周都是同样的资金在不同领域间流动。

So on a weekly basis, basically the same money is moving to different verticals.

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因此要让某个单一领域(比如AI和RWA)在几个月内持续跑赢大盘是很困难的。

So it's tough to have like a broad outperformance for like a single sector, like AI and RWA over like a couple of months.

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你必须非常精准地把握时机和催化剂。

You gotta be very specific with your timing and catalysts.

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所以最近,我经常关注AI领域。

So in the recent, like, mean, I look at the AI sector a lot.

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展望未来,有哪些让我感兴趣的事情呢?

Just looking forward, what are some of the things that interest me?

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可能是Tau生态系统,考虑到几个月后——我想是一个月后——将迎来Tau减半。

It could be the Tau ecosystem, given that you have the Tau halving in a few months, I think in a month, I think.

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这些都是我期待并试图预测的催化剂,比如流动性是否会从某个领域转移到某个生态系统。

So these are the kind of catalysts I look forward to ahead and I try to predict, okay, could liquidity move from a certain sector to ecosystem, let's say.

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所以关键是要认清你所处的市场环境。

So it's, you got to know, recognize the environment you're in.

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如果处于流动性稀薄的环境,你的主要工作就是预测,对吧?

And if it's a thin liquidity environment, your job is mainly to predict, right?

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这些流动性每周可能会流向哪些领域?

Where could this liquidity be flowing on a week to week basis?

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但对我个人而言,在Blockworks工作时,我更关注AI和RWS领域,而且我投资组合中相当一部分也确实配置了这些垂直领域的代币,毕竟我研究得很多。

But yes, personally for me at Blockworks, I do look more at the AI and RWS sector and definitely, I mean a decent portion of my portfolio is also in tokens in these verticals just because I look at it a lot.

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我在这个领域掌握更多信息,而且现在正发生许多有趣的事情,对吧?

I have a lot more information in this sector and a lot of interesting things are happening right.

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对于AI领域来说,不仅在Web3,甚至在Web2空间也有大量发展正在进行,Web3项目确实能在某些领域真正增加价值。

Mean for the AI sector not just in web three but even in the web two space a lot of developments are happening and there are certain areas where web three projects can truly add value here.

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即使在现实世界资产领域,也正在发生大量代币化进程。

And even in the real world asset sector, a lot of tokenization is happening.

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我是说,这就是热词——稳定币代币化。

I mean, that's the buzzword, stablecoins tokenization.

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但没错,这不仅仅是热词而已,对吧?

But yeah, it's more than just buzzwords, right?

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你会看到实际资本正在上链,这个领域仍在发生大量创新。

You're seeing actual capital come on chain and a lot of innovation still happening in this area.

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所以对这些领域确实感到兴奋。

So definitely excited about these areas.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,因为我们知道您在这两个领域做了大量深入的研究。

And I mean that I because we know that you have done a lot of research, deep research in these two parts.

Speaker 1

所以我很好奇,如果您方便与我们的观众分享,您个人是如何进行投资的?

So I'm curious, or if it's okay for you to share with our audience, then how do you do your personal investment?

Speaker 1

比如,您如何配置资金,是在股票、Web3资产,还是当前市场中的某些特定项目?

So for example, how to position your money, you know maybe in the stocks or Web3 assets or particular some projects you know in this market now?

Speaker 0

这是个好问题。

Yeah that's a good question.

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当前市场环境并不容易,我想说无论市场状况如何,分散投资是关键。

Not an easy market to be in and I would say like I mean regardless of market conditions diversification is a key.

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虽然我主要专注于Web3领域,但这并不意味着我把所有资金都投入其中。

So just because I mean I'm quite focused in the Web3 space doesn't mean all my money is in this space.

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我仍然有相当一部分投资组合配置在股票、黄金和大宗商品上。

I still have like a fair bit of like a portion of my portfolio in equities and in gold and commodities.

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所以我尽量保持一个平衡的投资组合。

So I try to like you know have a balanced portfolio.

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在传统金融方面,我持有股票、股权、大宗商品和黄金;而在Web3领域,我将投资组合中相当一部分配置在比特币上——我几乎每月都会进行美元成本平均法投资,逐步累积我想要分配给比特币的金额。至于比特币之外的其他资产,在当前这种较为残酷、风险规避情绪浓厚的市场环境下,我会更加精挑细选,宁愿持有那些我愿意拿住未来几年的代币。

So on the the TradFi side I have stocks, equities, stocks, commodities, gold, and on Webtree the side, have a decent portion of the portfolio in Bitcoin, which is almost like a I try to DCA and do it like every month, building the amount I want to be allocated to Bitcoin, and outside of Bitcoin, that's when I'm a lot more selective in the assets I hold, especially in this market environment where it's a bit brutal, it's a bit risk off mode at the moment, so I would rather hold tokens that I'm okay holding for the next couple of years.

Speaker 0

这些代币都具有坚实的基本面、健全的代币经济学、极小的供应过剩问题,并且能为代币带来良好的价值积累。

So these are tokens with strong fundamentals, strong tokenomics, minimal supply overhang, and good value accrual to the token.

Speaker 0

这些都是我愿意跨越多轮周期持有的代币类型。

So these are some tokens that I would want to hold over a multi cycle period.

Speaker 0

例如Hyperliquid或PUMP这类项目,基本上这就是我构建投资组合的方式。

So examples could be Hyperliquid or PUMP, but that's essentially how I structure my portfolio.

Speaker 0

我认为保持平衡策略非常重要——不仅在加密货币领域,甚至在传统金融方面也是如此,因为这能帮助你更好地应对市场波动。

I think having a balanced approach, not just in in crypto, but even in the thread five front is very important because that helps you weather like the ups and downs in the market better.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我同意。

I I agree.

Speaker 1

就我个人而言,这也是我配置资产的方式。

Know, personally, it's also the way I do my position, my assets.

Speaker 1

也是。

Too.

Speaker 1

更像是人们所说的全天候配置,将资产分散布局以平衡风险。

It's more like the people said all weather positions, so you put your assets in different parts and to balance the risk.

Speaker 1

你刚才提到了比特币。

So you mentioned about the the the Bitcoin.

Speaker 1

我们知道过去三周,比特币从历史高点下跌了近30%,市值蒸发了1万亿美元。

So we know over the past three weeks, the BTC is down, I think, nearly from nearly 30% from ATH, and $1,000,000,000,000 has been wiped out.

Speaker 1

你多次提到强制平仓头寸、永久性流动性证券以及BCC国债公司交易价格低于MMAV的情况。

You have repeatedly flagged forced off leverage positions, permanently liquid securities and BCC treasury companies trading below the MMAV.

Speaker 1

从你的机构资金流向或链上数据视角来看,发生了什么情况?

So from your view of the institutional flows or on chain data, what thing happened?

Speaker 1

2025年11月的加密货币暴跌暴露出了哪些潜在的结构性弱点?

Any potential structural weakness have the November 20 twenty five crypto crash exposed?

Speaker 0

是的,这是个好问题,我喜欢你强调资金流向是关键这一点。

Yeah, that's a good question and I like that you highlight that it's all about flows.

Speaker 0

所以这个周期主要关注的是机构资金流,而本周期的主要渠道就是ETF。

So this cycle it's all about institutional flows and the two main avenues for that this cycle has been ETFs.

Speaker 0

既有比特币ETF,也有像MicroStrategy这样的数字资产储备公司,它们一直在持续买入比特币。

So you have the bitcoin ETFs and you also have this digital asset treasury companies such as MicroStrategy that were, you know, consistently buying Bitcoin.

Speaker 0

这两种资金流对价格产生了积极影响,但同样也可能产生负面影响,对吧?

So you had these two flows kind of have a positive impact on the price and the negative can also happen, right?

Speaker 0

如果你看同一时间段,我认为从十月到现在,比特币ETF的资金流一直是负的。

So if you look at the same time period, I think from October to now, Bitcoin ETF flows have been negative.

Speaker 0

这几乎意味着每天都存在持续的抛售压力。

So these is almost like consistent sell pressure every day.

Speaker 0

原因可能在于整体宏观环境,如果人们开始规避风险,他们很可能也会在加密货币投资组合中采取相同立场,因此正在抛售部分比特币持仓。

The reason for this, could be just for the overall macro environment, Like if people are getting risk off, then they would likely, know, show the same position in their crypto portfolio as well, and hence they are selling off some of the Bitcoin holdings.

Speaker 0

这可能是导致比特币ETF资金流为负的原因之一。

That could be contributing to the negative Bitcoin ETF flows.

Speaker 0

另一方面,当比特币价格下跌时,这些数字资产储备公司会面临压力,它们的MNEF溢价开始收缩,这使得它们更难继续发行新股、购买比特币并维持同样的循环。

And on the other side, so when the price of Bitcoin falls, these digital asset treasury companies come under pressure where their MNEF premium starts to compress and what this does is it makes it harder for them to keep issuing new shares and buying bitcoin and keeping the same cycle going.

Speaker 0

所以这正是你现在看到的情况,对吧?

So that's exactly what you're seeing, right?

Speaker 0

如果你观察这些比特币储备公司的购买速度,最近几周已经大幅放缓。

If you look at the pace of purchases of this Bitcoin treasury companies, it has drastically slowed down in the recent weeks.

Speaker 0

这基本上导致了比特币买盘压力的降低。

So that basically contributes to a lower buy pressure for Bitcoin.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,这两个催化剂叠加基本上意味着被动的比特币买单减少了,同时还有大量比特币早期大户在获利了结,抛售他们的比特币持仓。

So I mean coupled these two catalysts coupled basically means that there's lesser amount of passive Bitcoin bids going on and at the same time you have a lot of OG Bitcoin whales taking profits and selling their Bitcoin positions.

Speaker 0

因此,买盘压力减弱与卖盘压力增加相结合,可能是导致市场当前疲软的部分原因。

So lesser buy pressure combined with a higher amount of sell pressure could be contributing to some of the weakness that we're seeing in the market.

Speaker 0

而比特币大户抛售的很多原因可能只是基于四年周期的投资哲学。

And a lot of the reasons why the Bitcoin whales might be selling could just be the four year cycle philosophy.

Speaker 0

他们中许多人可能认为,嘿,我们正接近周期尾声,现在或许是获利了结的合适时机,这某种程度上成为一种自我实现的预言。

A lot of them might believe that, hey, we're nearing end of the cycle and it might be apt time to take profits, and that kind of becomes like a self fulfilling prophecy.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,所有这些资金流动综合起来可以解释市场近期的疲软表现。

So I think these flows all put together could explain the recent weakness in the market.

Speaker 1

谢谢你,Kunai。

Thank you, Kunai.

Speaker 1

个人而言,我要感谢你——我是说,上个月在新加坡见面时,你提醒我要注意DAT的风险。

And personally, I want to thank you for I mean, when we met last month in Singapore, you told me to, you know, take care about the risk of the DAT.

Speaker 1

我也因此减持了部分DAT持仓。

And I also cut some of my position of the DAT.

Speaker 1

所以你看,回到今天来看,这个决定是正确的。

So, you know, back to today, it's it's the right decision.

Speaker 1

那么,我们接下来谈谈RWA这个话题吧。

So so let's move to the RWA, another subject.

Speaker 1

如果我没记错的话,你长期看好Centrifuge,称其为RWA领域被低估的王者。

You have if I'm right, you have long called centrifuge, the overlooked king of RWA.

Speaker 1

其TVL到2025年将突破15亿美元,但增长仍严重依赖GenusHeddesen等机构进行的低风险国债代币化业务。

The TVL now will pass to 1,500,000,000 in 2025, yet growth remains heavily tied to low risk treasure tokenizations by players like GenusHeddesen.

Speaker 1

而你始终认为真正的杀手级应用在于大规模引入非标准化高收益资产。

You keep selling the real killer app away the long scale onboarding of non standard high yield assets.

Speaker 1

那么你认为通胀最有可能在2026年出现吗?或者你之前的观点是否有任何变化?

So would you see that inflation most likely coming in 2026 and or if you have any change on your opinion before?

Speaker 0

是的,这个观点很好。

Yeah, that's a good point.

Speaker 0

我在几个月前市场崩盘之前就报道过Centrifuge。

I covered centrifuge I think a couple of months ago before the the market crash happened.

Speaker 0

出于几个原因,我对这个团队仍然感到非常兴奋。

And I'm still very excited about the team for a couple of reasons.

Speaker 0

首先,是的,这更像是2026年的布局。

Firstly, yes, it's a bit of a more like, I think a 2026 play.

Speaker 0

交易背后的逻辑是,随着利率开始下降(希望如此),国债收益率将不再那么有吸引力。

Like the thesis behind the trade is as rates start to come down which hopefully they will then you know T bill yields are no longer as attractive.

Speaker 0

因此,链上投资者会寻求更高收益,届时Centrifuge提供的其他产品将真正开始受益于TVL的流入。

So funds are like I mean investors on chain would want to seek higher yields and that's when some of the other product product centrifuge offers will really start to benefit from TVL inflows.

Speaker 0

实际上,尽管他们目前的TVL产品已有相当规模的资金,但大部分TVL来自其Janus Henderson的CLO基金。

So actually, even though like the TVL product has a fair bit of TVL for them currently, most of the TVL comes from their Janus Henderson CLO fund.

Speaker 0

所以我认为它提供的回报率大约是5%,而国债收益率是4%。

So that offers around I think 5% returns versus 4% on T bill yields.

Speaker 0

因此这本身就是一款更高收益的产品,明年他们还将推出几款新产品。

So that itself is a higher yield product and moving forward next year they're gonna have a few more products coming out.

Speaker 0

其中之一是代币化或链上标普500基金。

One of them is the tokenized or on chain S and P 500 fund.

Speaker 0

基本上,任何想要大规模投资股票的人都可以通过Centrifuge的这个新产品来实现。

So basically anyone who wants to gain exposure to stocks and do so in size can do so through this new centrifuge product.

Speaker 0

他们还将推出另一只基金,预计能提供7%到8%的回报率。

And they also have another fund coming out which will offer, I think, seven to 8% returns.

Speaker 0

随着利率开始下降,这些高回报产品会变得更具吸引力,应该能吸引大量PVL资金流入。

So these high return products become a lot more attractive as rates start to come down and they should see meaningful PVL inflows there.

Speaker 0

他们主要的客户之一实际上是链上的各种协议,对吧?

And one of their main clients is actually these various protocols on chain, right?

Speaker 0

这些协议持有大量国债,它们希望以安全合规的方式,并且能够有效扩展的模式,从这些国债中获得闲置收益。

They have quite a big stack of treasuries, and these protocols would want to earn like an idle yield on their treasuries in a safe compliant manner and in a way that they can scale effectively.

Speaker 0

随着利率逐步下降,这些协议会希望将闲置资金配置到更高收益的资产上。

So as rates come down increasingly these protocols would want to deploy their idle treasury into higher yield generating assets.

Speaker 0

我认为这正是Centrifuge真正开始受益的时候。

I think that's when centrifuge really starts to benefit.

Speaker 0

当然,这些产品需要时间来扩大规模,建立协议间的信任也需要时间。

Of course, these products will take time to scale these partnerships and gaining the protocols trust will need some time.

Speaker 0

所以我希望这个愿景能在2026年实现。

So I would see hopefully this plays out in 2026.

Speaker 0

同时这也取决于整体宏观经济环境,对吧?

And it also depends on the broader macro environment, right?

Speaker 0

利率会下降吗?

Do rates come down?

Speaker 0

如果利率持续高企,人们可能就满足于4%的收益,基本上愿意承担更低风险。

If rates stay high and sticky, then maybe people are okay with taking the 4% and okay with, you know, taking lesser risk basically.

Speaker 0

所以实际上取决于多种宏观因素的组合,才能真正推动Centrifuge第二天的表现。

So it really depends on like a macro combination of factors that will really drive centrifuge next day performance.

Speaker 1

明白了。

Got it.

Speaker 1

所以,我也非常感兴趣,很期待2026年会发生什么。

So, I'm also very interested, excited to know what will happen in 2026.

Speaker 1

那么让我们回到你们的机构,Blackworks。

So let's back to your institutions, Blackwalks.

Speaker 1

在你十月底的回顾中,你写道订单簿深度仍远低于危机前水平,做市商永久性撤退,ETF资金流入逆转,以及加密货币作为风险资产的广泛重新定价。

In your late October recap, you wrote the order book Deeps Remains Far Below Pre Crisis Levels, Permanently Market Makers Retreat, ETF Inflow Reversal and a Broader Re Pricing of Crypto as a Risk Asset.

Speaker 1

在你所说的轻松交易者已经消失的世界里,机构究竟为何要为Blockworks的主要服务买单?

In a world where, as you say the easy traders have disappeared, what exactly are institutions paying Blockworks' primary dollar for?

Speaker 0

是的,这是个好问题。

Yeah, that's a good question.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,无论市场条件如何,对数据和研究的需求仍然很大,对吧?

I mean regardless of market conditions, there's still a lot of demand for data and research, right?

Speaker 0

如果你看看这些机构,他们不仅仅是为了这个周期而来,他们有更长的时间视野,能够承受一些短期的市场波动。

I mean if you look at institutions, they're not here just for like this cycle, they're here for like, they have like a longer time horizon and they're willing to, they're able to withstand some short term market volatility.

Speaker 0

所以这取决于机构本身。

So it depends on the institutions.

Speaker 0

我们有很多对冲基金客户,很多风险基金客户,他们的优先事项各不相同。

We have a lot of hedge fund clients, a lot of venture fund clients, so their priorities are different.

Speaker 0

其中很多人只想知道Web3领域有哪些令人兴奋的发展方向。

A lot of them just want to know what is the exciting areas of development in the Web3 space.

Speaker 0

他们应该在风险投资和流动性投资组合中关注哪些领域。

What are areas that they should get exposure to both on their venture and liquid books.

Speaker 0

我们为他们剖析那些有趣的叙事,以及他们可以接触到的早期协议和流动性协议中有哪些值得关注的项目。

And we kind of break down the interesting narratives for them, and what are some of the interesting, both early stage protocols and liquid protocols that they could get exposure to.

Speaker 0

在我们的数据产品方面,我们拥有业内最全面的数据仪表盘之一。

And on our data product, right, we have one of the most comprehensive data dashboards in the industry.

Speaker 0

这些都非常实用,即使在当前市场环境下,你也想知道哪些协议的基本面在改善,哪些协议的指标表现如何?

And these are useful, like from even in the current market environment, you would want to know which protocols have improving fundamentals, which protocols are what are the metrics?

Speaker 0

在这次市场调整中,这些指标表现如何?

How are the metrics fared in this market correction?

Speaker 0

这能帮助你更好地构建投资组合,对吧?

And that helps you structure your portfolio better, right?

Speaker 0

它能指导你应该增持哪些代币,或者如何更精准地调整你的投资组合配置。

So it helps you it guides you on which tokens you should be more overweight on or how should you position your portfolio more accurately.

Speaker 0

这些都是实时数据仪表盘,对吧?

And these are like real time data dashboards, right?

Speaker 0

因此,它既帮助基金经理也帮助个人投资者更好地管理风险,这在市场的任何阶段都很有价值。

So it helps both fund managers and personal investors basically manage their risk better and that's valuable in any stage of the market.

Speaker 0

这与我们的研究产品相结合,我们会重点介绍市场上一些最有趣的机会,我们既做多也做空。

And that also couples with our research product where, you know, we highlight some of the most interesting opportunities in the market and we both have like, we're both long and short.

Speaker 0

我们同时提供这两种操作建议。

We make both of these calls.

Speaker 0

因此,即使在当前市场环境下,我们也能指出市场中的薄弱环节。

So even in the current market, we could highlight what are areas of weakness in the market.

Speaker 0

如果投资者想做空,有哪些协议他们可以考虑做空,以对冲他们的投资组合风险。

And if investors want to take a short position, what are some of the protocols that they could potentially take a position short position on and hedge their portfolio against.

Speaker 0

所以基本上,我们是市场上最全面的数据集和研究团队之一。

So it's basically, I mean, we are one of the most comprehensive data sets out there and research teams out there.

Speaker 0

这种信息增值和我们能为投资者提供的阿尔法,在任何市场条件下几乎都具有价值。

So this value add of information and you know, alpha that we can provide investors is almost valuable in any market condition.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

让我们回到你刚才说的最后一句话。

Let's back to your last sentence.

Speaker 1

我也了解到你们机构的理想愿景是成为我们所说的'加密彭博社'。

So I also know that your institutions, the ideal future is, we call it the crypto Bloomberg.

Speaker 1

Black Box在西方已经是行业标准阅读的权威机构。

So Black Box is already the institution of great standard reading in the West.

Speaker 1

我知道你们总部设在新加坡。

And you know, I know that you are based in Singapore.

Speaker 1

那么着眼于中国或更广泛的亚洲地区,目前本地机构最大的未被满足的需求是什么?

So looking at China or broader Asia, what is the single biggest unmet hunger among the local institutions right now?

Speaker 1

你觉得呢?

Do you think?

Speaker 1

为什么你认为你们机构的解决方案是正确的?

And why your institutions break works is the right answer?

Speaker 0

这是个有趣的问题。

That's an interesting question.

Speaker 0

据我所知,很多基金——比如我之前工作的斯巴达集团,就是一家在新加坡和香港注册的基金。

From what I know like a lot of the funds so previously I used to work at Spartan Group which was Singapore and Hong Kong Incorporated Fund.

Speaker 0

我们也订阅了Blockworks,很多亚洲基金也订阅了Blockworks Research。

So we subscribed to Blockworks as well and a lot of the Asian funds also subscribe to Blockworks Research.

Speaker 0

因为从机构角度来看,我们确实拥有非常全球化的客户基础,但从散户用户角度来看,我们在中国等亚洲国家的采用率可能还没达到那个水平。

Just because it's almost I would say from an institutional perspective we do have a very global client base but maybe from a retail user perspective we may still not have that level of adoption from countries like China or countries in Asia.

Speaker 0

我认为这很大程度上是因为亚洲的散户投资者在花钱购买这种相对昂贵的研究产品时仍然比较保守,对吧?

And I think a lot of that comes down to the, I would say, retail investors in Asia are still a bit more conservative in spending money for a research product that is rather expensive right?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,这不是一个便宜的入门产品,所以我认为那里仍然存在很多犹豫和准入门槛。

I mean it's not a cheap product to gain access to, so I think there's still a lot more like hesitation there and barriers to entry there.

Speaker 0

但我想从机构角度来看,至少对基金而言,很多已经订阅了Blockworks。

But I would say from an institutional perspective, at least for funds, a lot of them already subscribed to Blockworks.

Speaker 0

所以我认为下一阶段更多是向这些地区的零售用户扩展。

So I would say the next stage would be more like expanding to retail users in these areas.

Speaker 1

顺便问一下,你们产品的价格是多少?

By the way, what's the price of your product?

Speaker 0

这个嘛,实际取决于购买的席位数量等因素,你可以在官网上查看具体信息。

This one, it really depends on the number of seats and all you buy, so you should check it out on the website.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

我们也会在节目说明中附上官网链接,感兴趣的听众想了解产品或价格的话,直接查看节目说明即可。

So we will also link your website in our show notes and for any audience who want interested to know their product or their price, just check the show notes.

Speaker 1

下一个问题。

Next one.

Speaker 1

我知道你们还举办过像Permissionless和DAS这样非常重要的大型活动。

So I know that you also hold very big important events like permission list and DAS.

Speaker 1

那么我的下一个问题是,如果无许可或DAS活动来到亚洲,你们会如何使这个亚洲版本与众不同且更出色?

So my next question is if the permissionless or DAS ever come to Asia, how would you make this Asia edition different and better?

Speaker 0

是的,这是个非常有趣的问题。

Yeah, would say that's a very interesting question.

Speaker 0

这些活动的重点很大程度上是吸引机构客户或机构基金参与,并进行开放对话,对吧?

A lot of the focus of these events is basically getting institutional clients or institutional funds to these events and having an open conversation, right?

Speaker 0

比如我们最近在伦敦举办的DAS活动,就邀请了金融科技和传统金融行业的一些顶尖人物,以及一些大型加密协议项目方参与。我们举办了大量现场播客、信息分享会和小组讨论,广泛探讨了加密行业的重要主题、当前发展以及推动领域进步所需的改进。

So I think we got some of biggest people in the fintech and trade fiat industry for DAS London which we did recently and we got some of the biggest crypto protocols to come down as well and you know we hosted a lot of like live podcasts, live info sessions, panel sessions where we had like a broad discussion on what are some of the prominent themes in the crypto industry and you know, what are the developments and what are the improvements that we need to see to really move forward as a space.

Speaker 0

因此,如果举办亚洲专场,虽然目标可能保持一致——同样希望顶尖协议和机构参与(或许更多聚焦亚洲视角)来分享他们的观点。

So having an Asia focused one, I wouldn't say that the goals probably remain the same, You would also want the same top protocols and institutions, maybe more Asia focused to come on and share their perspectives.

Speaker 0

我认为一个有趣的角度在于:亚洲有许多顶尖的创始人,对吧?

And I think what interesting angle could be, there are a lot of top Asian founders out there, right?

Speaker 0

比如Kaito、Pendle,还有我在新加坡交流的许多团队,

I think you have Kaito, you have Pendle, a lot of the folks I speak to in Singapore, right?

Speaker 0

他们都在构建解决方案,致力于解决加密领域特有的痛点。

Are top teams building and solving unique pain points in crypto.

Speaker 0

或许可以听听他们作为亚洲创始人的视角,他们的经历是怎样的?

So maybe just to have their perspective as an Asian founder, how was their experience like?

Speaker 0

对他们来说,哪些事情是比较容易的?

What are some of the things that was easy for them?

Speaker 0

他们面临了哪些困难?

What are some of the difficulties they face?

Speaker 0

特别是因为他们的产品是全球使用的,对吧?

Especially because their products are used worldwide, right?

Speaker 0

他们的很多受众是西方观众。

A lot of their audience are Western audiences.

Speaker 0

那么,你知道在接触这些受众时有什么挑战吗?

So, you know, was there any challenges in in reaching out to these audiences?

Speaker 0

主要是让更多亚洲基金、亚洲机构参与进来,听听他们的观点,对吧?

And mainly getting a lot more like Asian funds, Asian institutions on board, and hearing from their perspective, right?

Speaker 0

你知道他们进展到什么程度了?

You know, how far are they along?

Speaker 0

他们采用了多少加密货币技术栈?

How much of like, you know, the crypto stack have they adopted?

Speaker 0

他们在代币化方面有什么计划?

What are their plans in tokenization?

Speaker 0

或者说,他们在Webtree AI方面有什么计划?

Or what are their plans in, you know, Webtree AI?

Speaker 0

只是想听听他们对哪些领域感兴趣,这样我们就能进行比较——看看西方世界的人们对什么感到兴奋,然后与亚洲世界进行对比,看看是否存在差异。因为我确实认为亚洲群体非常强大。

Just to hear, you know, what are the things they are interested in, and then we can offer like a it helps us compare it okay in the Western world what are people excited about and we can kind of compare that to to the asian world as well and and see if there's any differences because I do believe that you know the asian crowd is very strong.

Speaker 0

本身。

Itself.

Speaker 0

我们几个月前在金融迷因季就见识到了,那个群体能有多强大。

We saw that, I mean, couple of months ago with the whole finance meme season, we saw just how powerful that crowd could be.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得在西方和亚洲受众之间,存在许多优先级和兴趣点的差异,通过会议揭示这些异同会非常有趣。

So I feel there are many areas where there's different priorities and different interests in both Western and Asian audience and, you know, uncovering those differences and similarities through a conference could be quite interesting.

Speaker 1

嗯。

Yep.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

我也想谈谈我正在做的项目,我们称之为'上海科技周'。

And I want to also say something about my project I'm doing, and we call it Tech Week Shanghai.

Speaker 1

我们的目标是成为亚洲在Trefi、Web3、实体产业与监管机构之间不可或缺的桥梁。

And our aim is become Asia's definitely bridge between the Trefi, Web3, real industry and the regulars.

Speaker 1

作为同时身处全球叙事与亚洲叙事交汇点的人,你认为当前亚洲最迫切需要却尚未发生的核心对话是什么?

So as someone who lives in the intersection of the global and Asian narratives, what is the single most important conversation in Asia right now you think that desperate need to happen but isn't?

Speaker 1

以及有什么建议——我们作为平台该如何促成这件事?

And any suggestion like how can we as the platform make it finally happen?

Speaker 0

这是个有趣的问题。

Interesting question.

Speaker 0

我想说的不仅限于亚洲,从我接触不同背景、不同国家人群的全球视角来看——

I would say not just in Asia but something I've noticed from like you know from a global perspective since I work with you know people from different backgrounds and people from different countries.

Speaker 0

我认为当前被严重忽视的是缺乏一套加密投资评估框架。比如随便看看网络内容,大家讨论时都缺乏系统方法。但股票投资就不同,你想买股票时有大量指标可参考:市盈率、现金流、营收等基本面数据,谷歌搜'如何估值股票'就能找到方法。

I think one thing that's not being talked about enough is having a framework to to approach crypto investing right like if you just look at any of the content out there or what people talk about online there's a lack of framework like if you look at stocks let's say if you want to buy stocks there's a lot of there's a list of indicators you can read there's PE ratios, there's a lot of fundamental metrics you can look at like cash flows, revenue, and a lot of these you can simply just do a Google search and be like hey how do I value a stock?

Speaker 0

这是被高估还是低估了?

Is this overvalued or undervalued?

Speaker 0

而且这些股票通常也有很多相关报道。

And often there's a lot of coverage for these stocks as well.

Speaker 0

但在加密货币领域,如果你想投资,很难知道该如何入手,很多投资者甚至不知道一些加密项目其实收入颇丰。

But for the same thing in crypto, If you were to it's difficult to know how to approach crypto investing, and a lot of investors are unaware that some of these crypto projects earn a lot of revenues.

Speaker 0

他们不知道去哪里追踪这些指标。

They don't know where they can track these metrics.

Speaker 0

他们不了解代币经济学、供应过剩这些概念。

They don't know things like tokenomics, supply overhang.

Speaker 0

许多投资者做出明智决策所需的核心关键信息都没有得到解决——不仅在亚洲,全球范围内都是如此。

A lot of these core important pieces of information that an investor needs to make an informed decision is not being addressed, not just in Asia, but globally as well.

Speaker 0

因此这个领域需要加强教育,指导人们如何接触这类资产。

So there needs to be increased education in this space on how can we approach this asset class.

Speaker 0

因为它还处于非常早期的阶段。

Because it's still very early days.

Speaker 0

这仍然是一个非常独特的资产类别,不仅仅关乎基本面。

It's still a very unique asset class where not just fundamentals.

Speaker 0

所以基本面在中长期很重要,但在短期,它更多由叙事驱动,更多受情绪影响。

So fundamentals matter in the mid to long term, but in the short term, it's a lot more narrative driven, lot more emotions driven.

Speaker 0

所以即使是叙事方面,对吧?

So even for the narrative side, right?

Speaker 0

你如何追踪下一个可能的热点趋势?

How could you track what might trend next?

Speaker 0

你如何追踪资金从一个叙事流向另一个叙事?

How do you track the flows from one narrative to the other?

Speaker 0

这些都是加密货币特有的细微差别,普通投资者很难掌握并驾驭这些。

These are very crypto specific nuances that a general investor can come in and be on top of these things.

Speaker 0

因此需要平台——不仅是我们,还包括其他旨在提升该领域教育水平、帮助机构基金和普通散户投资者做出更明智加密货币投资决策的平台。

So having a platform, not just ours, but, you know, different platforms out there that aim to increase education in the space and help both funds and the average, you know, retail investor make better, more informed crypto investing decisions.

Speaker 0

这正是这个领域真正向前发展所需要的。

It's it's what's needed for the space to really progress moving forward.

Speaker 1

明白了。

Got it.

Speaker 1

谢谢你,Kunai。

Thank you, Kunai.

Speaker 1

我认为作为一个平台,这是个非常好的建议。

And I think it is a really good suggestion as a platform.

Speaker 1

如果Web3行业,尤其是投资领域,能像Web2或传统行业那样成熟,那么它确实需要更多观点和数据来服务零售投资者。

If the the Web three industry, especially the the investment really is be so mutual as as the web two or the traditional one, then definitely it need more opinion or in the need more datas for the retailer investor.

Speaker 1

我知道我们已经谈了很多,而且你对不同项目做了大量深入研究。

I I know then, you know, we have talked a lot and you have done a lot of deep research in different projects.

Speaker 1

那么,让我们把它作为一个开放性问题吧。

So let's say it will be an open question.

Speaker 1

最近,你有没有发现什么有趣的项目,或者有什么特别的观点想和我们的观众分享?

So recently, have you ever found an interesting project or do you have some, you know, special opinion that you'd like to share with our audience?

Speaker 0

当然。

Sure.

Speaker 0

当然。

Sure.

Speaker 0

顺便声明,这不是财务建议,但在当前市场环境下,归根结底还是宏观因素决定。

Not financial advice by the way, but in this market environment, again, comes down to macro.

Speaker 0

我喜欢从这个角度切入分析。

That's how I like to start it.

Speaker 0

目前宏观环境相当复杂,许多投资者正采取避险策略,我认为对持有资产类型更需要精挑细选。

It's a tricky macro environment, a lot of investors are taking a risk off approach, and I think it's better to be more selective in the type of assets that you own.

Speaker 0

我首先关注的是资金流向——尽管比特币和Solana的ETF都出现资金外流,但刚在纳斯达克上市不久的SOL ETF却持续获得正向资金流入。

So first thing I looked at is where our flow is going and amid all the ETF outflows for both Solana, for both Bitcoin and ETFs, SOL ETFs which actually just recently started trading on the Nasdaq.

Speaker 0

我记得是两周前刚开始交易的。

So I think it started trading two weeks ago.

Speaker 0

它持续保持着ETF资金净流入,但市场似乎并未充分讨论这一现象。

It's been consistently racking positive ETF inflows and I don't think the market is really talking about this.

Speaker 0

因此我认为,如果市场条件改善,凭借当前资金流入的积极态势,SOL及其生态代币很可能会在行情回暖时显著受益。

So I do feel like, you know, if conditions pick up and given the current positive pace of flows, SOL and the SOL ecosystem tokens would likely stand to benefit if we get an uptick in the market.

Speaker 0

具体来看SOL生态代币,我觉得Pump、Pump。

And if you look at SOL eco tokens specifically, I think pump, pump.

Speaker 0

基金,它们有望从这一趋势中获益。

Fund, they stand to kind of benefit from this trend.

Speaker 0

Solana链本身常被称为迷因币链,而Pump正是所有迷因币活动的聚集地。

Sole as a chain itself has often been known as the meme coin chain and you know pump is where all the meme coin activity happens.

Speaker 0

如果观察Pump的基本面,根据其收入,它们每天几乎销毁价值100万美元的代币。

And if you look at the the fundamentals of pump, know, they're almost burning 1,000,000 worth of tokens every day based on their revenues.

Speaker 0

虽然收入有所下降,但仍保持相对稳定,这是个积极信号。

The revenues are down, but has still relatively held up, which is a positive sign.

Speaker 0

而且,他们即将迎来几个有趣的催化剂事件。

And, you know, they have a couple of interesting catalysts coming up.

Speaker 0

他们最近推出了'混乱模式',但相关细节尚未完全披露。

They recently launched their mayhem mode but a lot of details around it haven't been shared yet.

Speaker 0

但我认为这些细节将逐步公开,我们将开始看到Pump.fund上出现一些独特的迷因币交易机制。

But I do think you know these details will start to be released and we'll start to see some of unique trading mechanisms start to take place for meme coin trading on pump.fund.

Speaker 0

因此,我认为如果市场回暖,考虑到SOL ETF资金流入的速度,以及pump的发展势头和强劲的基本面,它可能会成为潜在的赢家之一。

So I do feel like you know if the market picks up given the the pace of SOL ETF flows and you know given the developments and strong fundamentals that pump has it could be one of those that could be a potential winner there.

Speaker 0

另一个我非常感兴趣的趋势是股票永续合约。

The, the other trend that I'm very interested in is equity pups.

Speaker 0

如果你观察这个周期,实际上股票的表现已经超过了大多数加密资产。

So if you look at this cycle, equities have actually outperformed most crypto assets.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,越来越多的链上资本持有者会希望获得股票敞口。

So I think increasingly investors who have capital on chain would want to get exposure to equities.

Speaker 0

但同时,普通加密投资者更愿意承担风险,对吧?

But at the same time the average crypto investor is more risk taking right?

Speaker 0

他不会满足于仅仅持有英伟达的现货多头头寸。

So he won't be happy with just like a spot long Nvidia position.

Speaker 0

他可能会想通过加杠杆来放大收益。

He would likely want to take leverage to amplify the returns.

Speaker 0

这就是为什么拥有股票永续合约产品会非常有用,而Hyperliquid凭借其hiv3产品再次成为明显赢家,该产品基本上允许协议在许可下推出自己的股票永续合约。

So that's where having a perk product on equities becomes very useful and again the clear winner here is Hyperliquid with their hiv3 product that basically allows protocols to permissionly launch their own equity perps.

Speaker 0

可以看到HIV3市场的交易活动开始活跃起来,接下来需要关注这一叙事中的关键赢家是谁。

And you're seeing trading activities start to pick up for for HIV, HIV three markets and then you got to look right who are the key winners in this narrative.

Speaker 0

目前的情况是XYZ、Felix和Ventureals在Hyperliquid上提供HIP3产品,但这三家都还没有发行代币。

So the current one is you have XYZ, Felix and Venturals offering HIP three products on hyperliquid but none of these three have a token yet.

Speaker 0

我知道Felix和Ventureals有积分计划。

So I know Felix and Vengeals has a point program.

Speaker 0

特别是如果人们看好这个领域,他们可以尝试获取积分,并期待在项目方发行代币时获得可观空投。

So particularly if you know people are bullish on this sector they could try to find farm points and you know hope for a decent token airdrop when they do launch a token.

Speaker 0

另一种参与方式就是投资这些HIP3市场的基础设施。

And the other way to play it is basically like a infra play on these HIP3 markets.

Speaker 0

其中一种方式可能是通过SATA。

So one of the ways to do so is maybe SATA.

Speaker 0

SATA是为众多HIP3市场提供价格更新的预言机服务。

So SATA is like an Oracle service that provides the prices pricing updates for a lot of these HIP3 markets.

Speaker 0

如果你的观点是HIP3市场将持续增长,那么他们将需要可靠的预言机服务提供商。

So if your thesis is that, know, HIP3 markets are continue to grow, they will need a reliable Oracle provider.

Speaker 0

鉴于SADA的产品和现有合作关系,如果市场回暖且HIV交易市场持续增长,他们有望获得不错的报价。

That's when SADA given their product and the current partnerships that they have in place would stand to potentially get a decent bid if you know the market picks up and of course HIV trade markets continue to grow.

Speaker 0

不过目前来说,这两个领域是我比较感兴趣的。

But yeah, I would say these are the two sectors I'm interested in at the moment.

Speaker 1

谢谢你,Kunai。

Thank you, Kunai.

Speaker 1

这确实拓宽了我的视野。

And it's really expand my views, you know.

Speaker 1

现在我了解到仍有许多积极趋势正在发生。

So now I know there's still a lot of trends and the positive trends is happening right now.

Speaker 1

录制结束后我一定会做更多研究。

And definitely, will do more research after this recording.

Speaker 1

需要提醒所有听众,这些言论仅代表我和嘉宾的个人观点,我们不提供任何投资建议。

And back to I need to remind to the all the audience and all these words is all the personal opinions, me and our guests, so we don't have provided any investment suggestions.

Speaker 1

回到建议部分。

But back to the suggestions.

Speaker 1

你知道,我知道有很多年轻人在听我的播客,他们大多刚从大学毕业。

So, you know, I know a lot of young people is listening to my podcast, and most of them are just graduate from the university.

Speaker 1

如果这些人想进入加密货币或Web3行业,

So if these people want to step into the crypto or Web3 industry, industry.

Speaker 1

你有什么建议给他们吗?

Do you have any suggestion for them?

Speaker 1

比如他们的第一份工作应该是什么,或者其他建议?

Like what should be their first job or any other suggestion?

Speaker 0

当然有。

Yeah, for sure.

Speaker 0

就拿我来说,我一年半前才大学毕业,所以如果他们想进入这个行业,我完全能理解他们的处境。

Like even for me, I graduated from university just a year and a half ago so I would know exactly what's going on in their shoes if they want to break into the industry.

Speaker 0

当然我有点幸运,但这也取决于你在大学期间付出的努力。我认为进入这个领域的一个好方法是多写作。

Of course I got a bit lucky but it's also about you know the effort you put in while you're still in university And I think a good way to break into this sector is to write a lot.

Speaker 0

你可以把你的观点发表在Twitter上,或者像Medium这样的写作论坛。

So you know just post your opinions on Twitter or like any like medium or another writing forum.

Speaker 0

写作的目的基本上在于它能帮助你更好地梳理思维流程,使你的思考更有条理,并迫使你采用结构化方法来处理加密货币投资或一般的加密货币内容。

And the aim of writing is basically it helps you streamline your thought process better, it helps you structure your thinking, and it forces you to have like a structured approach yourself in approaching crypto investments or like crypto content in general.

Speaker 0

这实际上是一个获得关注度的绝佳方式。

And that's actually a very good way to get visibility.

Speaker 0

就我所知,我现在的公司或之前的公司,我们也会关注人们在推特上发布的内容。

So I know, you know, my current company or my last company, we also looked at, you know, what people are posting on Twitter.

Speaker 0

我们经常仅基于他们在推特上写的内容就面试了很多候选人,仅仅因为他们有非常独特的见解和优质的分析内容。

And often we have interviewed a lot of candidates just based on what they wrote on Twitter, just because they're, you know, very unique takes, very good analysis that they were posting.

Speaker 0

所以,如果你想进入这个领域,申请相关工作时,写作总是很有帮助的。

So, you know, it always helps that if you want to break in the sector, you're going to apply to jobs in this space.

Speaker 0

拥有个人影响力并能展示'看,我已经写了这么多内容'总是好的,这样人们就能了解你的能力和思维方式。

It's always good to have a presence and be able to show that, hey, you know, I've already written so and so content out there, so people are aware of your capabilities and your thought process.

Speaker 0

同时,你也可以搭建数据仪表盘。

And at the same time, you can also build data dashboards.

Speaker 0

比如利用Analytics工具或Artemis数据构建自己的仪表盘,这在求职时也是另一个很好的方式。你可以向招聘经理展示:'我不但写了这些研究文章,还搭建了某些仪表盘来辅助决策过程',对吧?

So there's things like analytics or just using Artemis data, can kind of build your own dashboards, and that's also another good way when you're applying for jobs, You can show the hiring manager that, hey, know, I've not only written these research articles, but I've also built certain dashboards to kind of inform my decision process, right?

展开剩余字幕(还有 71 条)
Speaker 0

面试中常被问到的一个问题是:你的投资流程是怎样的?

One common question asked in interviews is, you know, what's your investment process?

Speaker 0

你每天起床后都做些什么?

When you wake up every day, what do you do?

Speaker 0

因此,建立一套完善的流程来寻找阿尔法收益并进行分析非常重要。

So it's important to have a very good process in place to find alpha and to approach your analysis.

Speaker 0

这就是如果你想在投资研究领域发展职业所需具备的。

So that's if you want to pursue a career in you know the investment and research front.

Speaker 0

另一个同样重要的方向是加入某个协议项目并成为他们的工程师,对吧?

The other side which is equally big is joining a protocol and being an engineer for them, right?

Speaker 0

或者专门为他们做业务拓展,这种更专注于协议的工作方向也是非常令人兴奋的职业选择。

Or just doing BD for them, a more protocol specific approach, which is also a very exciting career.

Speaker 0

如果你想为此做准备,就多与团队交流,问问自己这个领域缺少什么,你对什么感兴趣?

So just if you want to prepare for it, talk to a lot of teams, ask yourself you know what is the space lacking, what are you excited about?

Speaker 0

而且外面有很多志同道合的人可能和你持有相同的观点。

And there are a lot of like minded individuals out there who probably share the same perspective as you.

Speaker 0

所以要与他们建立联系,与他们交流,并一起开发有趣的产品。

So connect with them, talk with them and you know build interesting products with them together.

Speaker 0

因为我认为这个行业还很新,还有更多创新尚未发生。

Because I think you know the industry is still very new and there's a lot more innovation that has yet to happen.

Speaker 0

所以谁知道呢?

So who knows?

Speaker 0

你可能就是带来那项创新的人。

You could be the one bringing about that innovation.

Speaker 1

谢谢你,Kunai。

Thank you, Kunai.

Speaker 1

我认为所有这些建议都非常实用。

And I think all these suggestions are very practical.

Speaker 1

而且,是的,如果你正在收听这个广播,这对你来说是件好事。

And, yeah, if you are hitting, you know, at this time of this broadcast, and it's good to you.

Speaker 1

一个开放性问题。

One open question.

Speaker 1

我知道我的一些朋友正在涉足稳定币在跨境支付领域的应用。

I know that some of my friends and they are doing or they are stepping into the stablecoin in the cross board payments.

Speaker 1

所以我想确认一下,因为我知道这不是你的研究方向。

So I just want to check because I know then it's it's not your research position.

Speaker 1

但你对这个领域有什么看法?你如何看待它的未来发展?

So but do you have some feeling about that and how how you see the future of this field?

Speaker 0

是的,稳定币几乎在全球范围内都在兴起,对吧?

Yeah, I mean stablecoins are picking up almost globally, right?

Speaker 0

如果我没记错的话,昨天印度刚刚宣布他们也将推出卢比稳定币。

I think if I'm not wrong yesterday just India announced that they're going to launch rupee stablecoin as well.

Speaker 0

就像你提到的,其中一个关键优势就是跨境支付。

And yeah, like you mentioned, one of the key benefits is cross border payments.

Speaker 0

它变得非常便宜、快速且无缝。

It becomes very cheap, very fast, very seamless.

Speaker 0

甚至像西联汇款这样的传统货币服务提供商也在考虑推出自己的稳定币。

And even traditional money providers like Western Union are looking to launch their own stablecoin as well.

Speaker 0

毫无疑问,这是一款产品市场契合度极高的产品,未来只会持续增长。

So definitely, this is a product with strong product market fit and it's only gonna grow.

Speaker 0

大多数贸易金融机构都非常支持稳定币。

Most of your trade fair institutions have very pro stablecoin.

Speaker 0

最近摩根大通也推出了基于Base链的JPM币。

Recently JP Morgan as well, they launched like a JPM coin on base.

Speaker 0

我认为这一趋势只会愈演愈烈。

And I think this trend is only gonna increase.

Speaker 0

那么你必须自问:这一趋势中的关键赢家会是谁?

So then you gotta ask yourself like, who are the key winners in this trend?

Speaker 0

很可能会出现的情况是,每家机构都会发行自己的稳定币,因为他们想从中获利。

What is likely to happen is each of the institution is gonna launch their own stable just because they wanna monetize from it.

Speaker 0

他们希望将抵押品和稳定币的收益保留在内部。

They wanna keep this revenue on the collateral and the stable in house.

Speaker 0

届时市场上将会出现大量不同的稳定币。

And you're gonna have a lot of different stablecoins out there.

Speaker 0

因此,赢家将会是一个能让你以最小滑点在不同稳定币之间互换的协议,或者是一个能让这些稳定币在不同区块链间无缝转移的互操作性协议。

So the winner would be a protocol that kind of allows you to swap between the stable coins with the least possible slippage or an interoperability protocol that lets these tables move between different blockchains seamlessly.

Speaker 0

所以这些就是关键赢家,但从采用角度来看,我认为我们才刚刚开始。目前很多稳定币以美元计价,但我认为未来链上会出现更多不同货币的稳定币,并且在接下来几个月或几年里,会有更多结算产品和交易产品涌现。

So these are the key winners here, but from adoption perspective, I think we've only just begun a lot of the stables today are USD denominated but I would say increasingly we should get a lot more currency stables on chain itself and there's going to be a lot more like settlement products and exchange products that will come up in the next coming months or years.

Speaker 1

好的,让我们回到最初的问题,你猜猜看这个领域的赢家会是哪一方?

Yeah, so let's back to the ones and just to guess, do you think which part will be the winner of this field?

Speaker 1

你知道的,比如你提到的摩根大通或Circle,我知道Stripe或Paper也在做这件事。

You know, like the you mentioned the JPMorgan or like the Circle, and I I know that the Stripe or Paper is also doing that.

Speaker 1

还有很多传统的跨境支付机构,或者一些我们还不了解的新项目方。

And a lot of traditional cross board payments or some, you know, we don't know, some new project owners.

Speaker 1

所以大胆猜测一下,谁会是最终的赢家?

So just to get a guess, which one will be the final winner?

Speaker 0

我认为目前USDT很有胜算。

I would say as of now USDT stands to have a good chance.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,它已经是赢家了。

I mean, it's already the winner.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

但我认为它能继续保持竞争优势。

But I I think it can maintain its moat going forward.

Speaker 0

USDT做得好的一个关键领域是在拉丁美洲地区有很强的渗透率。

And one key area that USDT has done well is it has a very strong penetration in the Latin America region.

Speaker 0

该地区很多人已经在使用USDT支付,而且USDT在银行和零售合作伙伴之间建立了许多强大的整合渠道,这是其他稳定币所不具备且需要时间构建的。

So a lot of the people in the region are already using USDT for payments and there's a lot of strong integrations in place for USDT between banking and retail partners that other stablecoins don't have and will take time to build those distributions.

Speaker 0

在这些国家,对美元的需求非常强烈,因为他们的货币几乎每周、每天都在贬值,年复一年。

And in these countries, the need for the dollar is very strong, With their currencies almost getting week by week, day after day and year after year.

Speaker 0

因此这些国家的很多人转向持有美元,对美元稳定币的需求非常旺盛。

So a lot of the people in the countries shift, they are holding towards the dollar and the strong demand for like dollar denominated stable coins.

Speaker 0

这就是我认为USDT几乎掌控了市场的原因,也是它们区别于其他稳定币的优势所在。

And that's where I think USDT has almost like a grip on the market and that's the edge that they have that sets them apart from you know other stablecoins out there.

Speaker 0

不过现在还处于早期阶段,很难说最终赢家会是谁。

But it's still early days you know you never know who might be the winner here.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

所以这就是加密货币行业里我认为有趣的地方。

So that's the interesting thing, I think, in in this crypto industry.

Speaker 1

我想邀请你明年某个时候,让我们三到六个月后再来看看发生了什么变化。

I I like to invite you the next year sometimes and let's back three or six months later to see what's the things happened.

Speaker 1

那么,是的,Kunai,我的问题问完了。

So, yeah, Kunai, my question is over.

Speaker 1

你还有什么想和我们观众分享的吗?

Do you have something else you want to share with our audience?

Speaker 0

没什么特别的了。

Not so much.

Speaker 0

我想说,如果有听众想进入这个领域或对如何参与有疑问,欢迎随时联系。

I would say like you know if anyone listening to the podcast is looking to enter the sector or has any questions about how they can feel free to reach out.

Speaker 0

不知道Danny你能不能加上我的Twitter或LinkedIn账号,方便大家联系我。

I don't know if Danny you might you could just add maybe my Twitter handle or my LinkedIn handle so that people could reach out to me.

Speaker 0

不过说真的,丹尼,和你这次对话让我非常开心。

But yeah really happy with this conversation with you as Danny.

Speaker 0

我自己也学到了很多,你确实让我思考了很多这类问题。

I learned a lot myself and you know you kind of got me to think about a lot of these questions.

Speaker 0

在这个行业里很容易埋头做事,很少坐下来思考这些核心问题,所以很感谢你提出这些。

It's very easy when you're in the industry you don't often you know sit down and think about some of these core questions but thanks for these.

Speaker 0

这些都是非常好的问题,见解深刻。

These are very good questions and really insightful stuff.

Speaker 0

希望三四个月后能再聊一次,我们可以回顾这些话题的变化。

Hope like happy to get on maybe in three to six months and we can revisit some of these themes and how they've changed.

Speaker 1

当然可以。

Definitely.

Speaker 1

你能这么说让我非常感激,这让我的工作更有价值。

And it's so highly appreciated if you say so, which makes my work more valuable.

Speaker 1

谢谢你,Kunai。

So thank you, Kunai.

Speaker 1

好的,我们今天的话题就到这里,向观众们道个别吧。

And yeah, let's close this talk today and just to say goodbye to our audience.

Speaker 1

我一定会在三到六个月后再联系你。

And definitely I will catch you back three or six months later.

Speaker 0

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 0

再见,各位。

Bye guys.

Speaker 0

谢谢,丹尼。

Thanks, Danny.

Speaker 1

谢谢你。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

拜拜。

Bye bye.

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